Will the Goldman plan ease Gord’s Rock headache?
January 21st, 2008
What will the impact of NR be on the next general election?
So there we have it. The Darling-Brown plan to solve the Northern Rock crisis without them, on the face of it at least, having to resort to nationalisation.
But a lot of tax-payer’s money is still at stake and Vince Cable’s point that ministers have gone for a private sector solution without the private sector risking any money certainly hit home in the commons a short time ago. His ability to express this forcefully in a manner that is easily understood could be a continuing issue for Brown. Cable inflicts damage on this issue every time.
The Tories are hoping that they can make the handling of Northern Rock into Labour’s “Black Wednesday” - something to chuck at what has been Gordon’s main USP - his skill at handling the economy.
A lot depends now on how this plays out with the media. How will this be reported? What will be the shorthand that’s used to describe the plan?
My sense is that because of the very complications of what’s involved the government has a certain amount of protection.
Mike Smithson
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Whether there is any fall-out will perhaps depend upon how much more risk the Govt. has exposed the taxpayer to versus the Lloyds rescue plan - which the Governor of the Bank of England was prevented from pursuing by Brown and Darling. If there is an easily explained - and large - gap between the numbers in that deal and this, then this is potentially very troublesome for them both - and for Labour.
Northern Rock’s debts have been nationalised, while the assets are set to be given away to anyone who will take them. Meanwhile GS will take a very nice fee for this smoke and mirrors exercise.
Classic New Labour - public waste coexisting with boundless largesse for favoured corporate interests.
I disagree with you….”the government has a certain amount of protection”
I would imagine that Vince Cable will lay into the proposals.
My sentiments are when the hell is someone in authority going to question the quality of the NR loan book???????????????
As we all know many of their mortgagees are effectively already in negative equity, and I dont mean the 125% ones, I’m talking about the 95% and 100% mortgages and the probable huge number of new build BTL(Buy To Let) mortgages
“Quality Loan Book” Del and Rodney have more valuable assets
Did anyone notice that Darling referred to “proposals from the two publicly declared entities and the company themselves”. What would get the govt off the hook would be a Nrock led consortium with some outside money (chinese maybe) allowing NRock simply to restart trading. not likely but possible. The Branson bid is laughable on many counts and would keep the story going given the closeness to GB personally.
The issue is that the Lib-Dems are making all the running on this - Vince Cable has played a blinder from the start - and has got the great soundbites now - the Tories meanwhile are doing an Iraq….’if I knew then what I know now….then I’d….do something else….er, maybe’. Until the Tories match the Lib-Dems for incisiveness the Govt will largely get away with it…..
No it will not ease Gord’s headache,only a General Election will do that.
Wikileaks has released a couple of hilarious legal demands over a confidential briefing memo entitled Project Wing — Northern Rock Executive Summary. Northern Rock Bank (UK) collapsed spectacularly late last year on the back of the sub-prime lending crisis and was re-floated by the Bank of England at a cost of over £24bn. The memo was used by the Financial Times, the Telegraph and others. It attracted a number of censorship injunctions, as reported by the Guardian, which only Wikileaks continues to withstand. In their legal demand to Wikileaks, Northern Rock’s well-known media lawyers, Schillings, invoke the DMCA & WIPO, claim it’ll be 10 years in prison for Wikileaks operators for not following the UK injunction, but then, incredibly, refuse to hand over a copy of the order unless Wikileaks’ London lawyers promise not to give it to Wikileaks. Finally they claim copyright and more — on their demands! The letters raise a serious issue about the climate of censorship in the UK, where one can apparently easily obtain a censorship order — a judge made law — that everyone is meant to obey, but no one is meant to know.”
Vince Cable’s clearly the nemesis of the Treasury.
He asked a lot of good questions (Osborne asked a couple too, though Cable’s were more hardhitting because of his strong stance) and none of them were answered.
“We’ll negotiate” is a feeble response. If Darling were confident of getting a decent profit share he would’ve rubbished the 5% figure.
O/T but I see that Cuba’s ruling party won their general election today, winning 614 out of 614 seats, on a 95% turnout.
Just heard a quote from Vince Cable about the NR plan along the lines of ” nationalisation of all the risks and privatisation of all the profits”.
5 The trouble is, Carlotta, that the whole issue is very technical, and, to the bloke in the pub, very boring. No matter how good Vince is, he will not be able to get much traction for the Lib Dems on this subject. Yes, it will become clear that the Government has cost us all a lot of money, but it will be Negative for Labour rather than Positive for the Lib Dems.
As bad as this is, they could get off lightly.
A few billion over a number of years is not a killer at all if we are honest and if it comes off there will be no lasting damage.
Whats more worrying at the moment is the seeming preference for Branson whos bid is apparently no better than anyone elses.
The downside however could be a lot worse that the 2 bil suggested but Labour will probably be out on their ear before the full extent of that comes through, if it ever does so theyve moved it nicely onto the back burner.
Its a case of wait and see. I never though NR would do poll damage unless there was a fat figure attached to it and 2 billion isnt enough.
8. Dam - I had a pony on the other mob with Paddy Power
4. Its also the route supported by some shareholders for the company to try to trade its way out itself.
12. It was a hard-fought campaign, but the result did match pollsters’ predictions.
8. Pah, thats nothing..in parts of West Belfast they probably had more than 100% turnout on occasion….
Nothing however beats the elction at one time, I think it was in Liberia or similar where the winning individual apparently polled more votes that the population of the country…
I doubt that this will have very little effect at all come the election - indeed the liklehood is that it will be long forgotten. The consequences of letting the bank go bust would have far more reaching consequences for the economy then this bail out of Northern Rock. At the end of the day this is far more like to cause stability rather then financial turbelence. Many of the problems of the Northern Rock stem from the States.
This is no Black Wednesday and if the Tories think it is then they’ve lost they’re living in cloud cukoo land. What happened that day had a far greater impact on the whole economy then Northern Rock ever will or has.
FTSE closes 5.5% down. Biggest one-day fall since 9/11.
11. £2bn isn’t enough, but it will probably be a good deal more than that. You have a point that if the losses are stretched out over time, this might soften the political blow…
…but this comes at a time when the public finances are already showing marked signs of deterioration (cf. today’s numbers). That means spending cuts and tax rises down the line, and if the blame for these can be put on government incompetence, then the political cost could well be high.
18. Lucky that we cancelled boom and bust then eh ?
3. No, Herbert Jnr, you’ve got the wrong end of the stick - the problem with NR wasn’t the quality of its loan book, but its inability to borrow money to lend - it had a smaller (much smaller now!) deposit base than other banks.
It was the quality of the US mortgage banks’ loan book (like, just tell us how much you earn - we won’t check) which started this thing off.
16. astroturf alert
20. I can’t believe how many people are still in denial about this. That kind of lax lending was endemic here in the UK too! How do you think house prices ever got so inflated?
17 - whats the points drop out of interest?
Gordon’s USP? Should surely be OSP - Only Selling Point (to date)
23 280 points on the FTSE100.
23. -279.30.
I wonder how this will really be viewed by “the man in the street”?
NR was big news a few weeks ago. Everyone could get the message from the queues outside the branches.
I think though, that whilst it still has a long way to run in the serious press, the likes of The Sun, Mirror and Mail have moved on. The details can’t be captured in a snappy headline and it will just look like old news if the tabloids try to make headlines with it.
At the end of the day it just doesn’t effect enough voters.
Having said that, it does show what a shambles Darling has made of it and how well Cable is doing.
If nothing else, Cable’s stint as acting leader means that for the first time in ages the general public will know the name of the Lib Dem Shadow Chancellor.
I await his next quip,
Mr Bean the Prime Minister, and Mr “has Bean” the Chancellor!
25 - If so then it isn’t 5.5% drop, more like 4.8%.
Though I agree that Cable has led the opposition well I can’t see it doing him anything but harm. Very few wanted to see NR or it’s depositors go to the wall and most believe that if the government hadn’t stepped in that-and worse-would have happened.
As no one is following the minutiae of the rescue it all boils down to Cable and co looking like they would have let the bank go under and the government doing what governments should do in times of crisis. Intervening.
Augustus - I think CV was saying that the Lib Dems will not get traction (very much), and we wait for the Tories to get hold of it and make the big soundbites etc. So your point was a bit at a tangent to hers (his?). All I can say, in answer to Carlotta is “Sad”.
I particularly enjoyed Vince Cable and Paxo jointly demolishing that jumped up little tory Philip Hammond a few days back on Newsnight. I have always felt he is somewhat pretending his knowledge in certain areas, and was waiting for a comeuppance. And boy did he get it! Now we need a Lib Dem to take Grayling apart similarly - another one who I feel has yawning gaps behind a facade of knowledge and competence!
27 “At the end of the day it just doesn’t effect enough voters.”
Except, perhaps, in Newcastle and the North East? Have Brown and Darling spent enough of our money to ensure that the Labour vote there stays loyal?
28 - FTSE Close: 5578.20 -323.50 (-5.48%)
Did anyone at pb have an account with Northern Rock, and if so do you still have money in it? Why does anyone seriously believe people are going to ever trust this business again after a quick rebrand.
32 - Ah that explains it.
10 Augustus - I agree - if the Tories were doing as good a job as the Lib Dems then the Govt might be in trouble - but they aren’t, so it isn’t.
“What happened that day had a far greater impact on the whole economy then Northern Rock ever will or has”
Indeed - it had a highly beneficial impact on the economy, unlike the Norther Rock cock up.
If people feel it has affected them financially it will have an effect on the government’s popularity, if they don’t feel that it will have little effect.
People aren’t really interested beyond their own relation to it.
as I said earlier where’s the billions to pay the interest on these bonds going to come from when the public finances are already worsening? I imagine the line 2p on petrol to line Richard Branson’s pocket would be a good one for any of the opposition parties.
O/T - back on London …
If anyone thought Andrew Gilligan and Nick Cohen were harsh about Livingstone, they should read Martin Bright’s Damascus moment in today’s Evening Standard:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23433325-details/I+now+believe+Ken+is+a+disgrace+to+his+office/article.do
BTW Mike, the “poll” today was just a marketing device linked to a Standard-sponsored “influentials” debate tonight on the mayoralty in Chelsea.
35 - I can’t wait to see the opinion polls when the government is in trouble then!
RE FTSE the futures are down much more predicting a negative open tomorrow - quite likely we will see some action out of the US causing a huge rally but it would be a good one to sell into.
Labour is toast - I’m proud to be a member of the same party as Cable as he reveals what cretins run our country. I find it amazing than the government would rather write huge cheques to speculators than nationalise NR. I’m sure Labour’s core supporters will be even more sickened than me. I think I now hate these idiots even more than I hated the Major Tories 15 years ago.
1. When you say “Mervyn King was prevented by”, what do you mean? I’ve been reading up on this, from the discussion earlier, and Kings testimony and interviews to the select committee went like this…
“There was no firm bid on the table at all.
“There was one pretty vague telephone call, which came to Bank officials and then passed to me, originating in FSA, saying that there might be a bidder but they wanted to know first, before putting a bid on the table, whether it would be possible for them to borrow about £30 billion without a penalty rate for two years, and I said, well, the Bank of England does not normally lend £30 billion to a going concern.
“In any event, our balance sheet is not big enough for us to make that kind of decision, and it was absolutely clear, whatever way you looked at it, it was clearly state aid. So I said to the Chancellor that this was not something which the Bank of England would do.
“My advice, clearly, was that this was not an operation which either central banks or governments normally did.”
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmtreasy/uc56-iv/uc5602.htm answer to Q1665
Doesn’t exactly sound like he was eager to lend Lloyds £30 bn at favourable rates, but was stopped by Darling.
33. I have a mortgage and small unsecured loan with them.
I’ve got the FTSE 100 closing down 323.5 - for a -5.48% drop.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index (which I think is a pan-Eurpean large cap index ??) is down 6.9% - the biggest one day drop since 1991
41 - Err… not sure what you mean, the US market is closed today, so the next market to open will be Japan & Asia overnight, and then Europe again tommorow morning?
38. That connection has to be made by the public, or someone has got to make it for them.
Its more likely plenty of people will start to connect that their cost of living is rising but their incomes and access to credit to deal with it and have lifes luxuries isnt matching.
That is a serious issue for government prospects.
33. I’m only a lurker, but yes I do. I did think of trying to get the money out last autumn but I didn’t want to stand in those queues and couldn’t get on the website. These days I’ve come round to the point of view that the government has invested so much capital (both of the literal and metaphorical varieties) in NR that it simply won’t be allowed to fail no matter how much it costs and therefore it’s probably about the safest place around to keep my money at the moment.
Basically - I don’t trust NR, however I do trust Gordon Brown’s stubbornness and cowardice. I simply do not believe he has the flexibility to admit he was wrong in trying to prop up the bank or the guts to take the PR flak that would come with a collapse.
37. It will be easy to pin this on the government if peoples’ finances are anyway deteriorating - in exactly the same way as Labour (inaccurately) blamed Black Wednesday for negative equity and squeezed real incomes in the early to mid-1990s.
People will want someone to blame, wnd who better than a sleazy, incompetent administration led by an intensely dislikeable figure.
I think markets are overreacting somewhat to the one poll showing Mitt up in Florida, but for those who want to buy some Romney, Skybet is still offering 7/2.
Another NY poll (reliable Marist) shows McCain up, by 34 to 19 this time, and both Giuliani and Romney at 19, Huck at 15. Giuliani meltdown.
41 Remember that the New York market was closed today, so maybe there will be a bit of uplift from them tomorrow.
33. Yes - nowhere near as much as when the crisis started. Also shareholder - but we bet on the previous mgt and lost heavily - my sympathies now lie with the taxpayer, the employees and the Northern Rock foundation……
50. Dow futures down 520 points…
Looking very messy all around. Excluding 9/11 this was the FTSE’s worst day since October 1987.
The rest of the Uk banks are not faring much better.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/498/0/default.stm
Look at RBS over the past 12 months
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/23201/twelve_month.stm
50 - Not necessarily, plus people are only just beginning to realise the full scale of sub-prime with its knock on in monoline and then the final sucker punch that is only beginning to show up stateside that sub-prime mortgages are attached to houses which are likely to be reposessed etc. It is a vicious circle, and remember as more CDO’s are being reported in balance sheets and share prices plummet the debt to equity ratios will get dangerous hence the refinancing from sovereign wealth funds etc. This could get a lot more messy!
29
‘As no one is following the minutiae of the rescue it all boils down to Cable and co looking like they would have let the bank go under and the government doing what governments should do in times of crisis. Intervening.’
The banking industry must be delighted, they can be totally irresponsible and know that the government will come to their rescue.
20. More on the quality of Northern Rock’s loan book: A few months before the crisis hit the directors of Northern Rock set up a separate vehicle to buy up property from people with Northern Rock mortgages before they went to foreclosure. (source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/20/cnrockprop120.xml) The effect of this is that rather than Northern Rock recording a borrower in default they would simply show a normal house sale, thus artificially massaging the value of the loan book as a whole.
On top of that they were also prepared to add mortgage arrears to the mortgage balance which again had the effect of massaging their apparent default rate.
The management should be have been thoroughly investigated rather than been allowed to walk away with multi-million pound deals.
52 - If that were replicated on the market would it trigger the complex crash prevention measures where trading is suspended?
56 but they are labour voters so the law of the land doesnt apply. That mortgage book is garbage and is the SOLE reason that the other banks stopped lending to it in the first place. Rock went bust because other banks wouldnt lend it money, those are the same banks who were aware of Rock lending practices as they also compete in the mortgage market.
This tin-pot northern building society was writing 20% of ALL new mortgages in the UK when it collapsed.
57 - No. Dow Futures doen 520pts is “just” 4%, I believe in the states, as with most of Europe, the crash prevention (aka limit down) stops generally kick in at 10%.
52/59
10% Means a half hour ‘cooling off period’.
59 - I thought that they had mini-stops at lower increments to stop a 1987 style crash from even starting, but you may be right.
Could be wrong I don’t do the US personally.
They didn’t suspend trading back in Feb last year when they had the 500 point drop (although that turned out to be a ‘tabulation error’).
It is all feeling a bit easy.
I think the media is mis-reporting today, it’s more to do with worries about monoline insurers that the US recession worries as such.
In most circumstances NR would have been a little local difficulty. The problem for the government is that this now is in tune with the mood music. They are being seen cocking up a financial matter just as the economy goes south. There may be no actual linkage but percived economic incompetence at a time of economic crisis destroys what was probably there USP against cameroon. I think this is OK for the moment but will turn into a killer if/when
(a) the government actually looses money. at the moment all we have is risk. When a figure becomes real that can be translated into equivalent hospitals/schools etc.
(b) nationalisation. Not that any body will understand the complexities but because they will be seen eventaully doing something they have clearly resisted for months.
As for the LD’s. cables stance will get us coverage and that allways helps shortterm poll ratings but sadly I just don’t think “Competance to run the economy” is high on reasons vote Lib Dem. Ironically one of the reasons Labour may be off the hook on this is that it isn’t the principal opposition party making the running.
Jan from Norway. OT. I heard the other day that ‘Life of Brian’ was initially banned in Norway for reasons of blasphemy which in Sweden led them to market it as ‘The film that is so funny it’s banned in Norway!’
O/T Miliband has started speaking the house about EU treaty.
65. Another lie-fest begins
I note the cRock is using Lindisfarne in its ad - the location of Polanski’s 1966 macabre comedy “Cul-de-sac”, which is quite apt…
quote:-
“Richard: Here we are!
Albie: Where?
Richard: In this sh1t…”
OT. Tomorrow the Oscar nominations will be announced and I expect an English DOP from Torquay to be nominated for two! I don’t know whether one DOP has ever been nominated for two films in one year before but I’ll bet it’s never happened to an Englishman! In my opinion they are the best and third best looking films this year so bravo to Roger Deakins!
Welcome to our new poster - Peter Nation @ 16
67. I should have started my post at 68…. ‘while on the subject of Polanski’s macabre comedy….’!
69. Indeed and a fine first post!
Darling on PM just now giving a weak performance - so many key questions unanswered (the period of the Govt guarantee of the bonds, the likely loss the taxpayers, etc). This is getting far too political not to end in tears. The Treasury will be selecting the preferred buyer (the main criterion being that he must have a beard) and the whole approach seems to be driven by Labour’s standing in NE England and by its wish not to nationalise.
If the UK housing market were to fall by, say, 30% over the next two years, what would be the impact to the taxpayer of guaranteeing the bonds?
72
Horrible. You have to assume alot of defaults in that sort of fall - it would be entirely rational for borrowers to walk away from negative equity.
The key thing about NR though is that it depends upon volume - the business model is to originate and sell mortgages not hold them to maturity.
If the market drops that far then one has to assume volume will dry up.
I should point out that on the same day as this happening:
Bill Clinton attacks Obama, FT-SE 100 Index falls 5.5%, Conservative announce that 347 laptops have been stolen from the MOD since 2004, Flooding hits the North of England.
How much of that will be remembered at the next election? My opinion, very little if any.
I thought Vince Cable’s reference comparing Gordon Brown to that famous Danish Economist, Hans Christian Andersen was quite funny
73. Borrowers would still be liable for any shortfall from negative equity if they walked away. The law here is different to the US.
74. As I understand it you are not allowed to walk away from negative equity so unless people are happy to be sued and or declared bankrupt that isn’t an option
69 Because having Peter the Punter, Peter from Putney, Peter, Punter, Peter 2′, and now Peter Nation, Peters are no longer underrepresented! The £1 per mistake pb.com party fund is predicted to swell…
73
Not if they go bankrupt. Which is rational and a lot easier post Enterprise Act 2002.
Re various posters - the trading curbs are on the broader market index, the s and p 500 - about 9% either way it seems though there used to be a lot more - maybe because the underlying market is closed it is different but one thing is sure if there is no official action overnight to reimburse fools with their money there will be a meltdown when the market opens tomorrow.
79 - Actually the one area where the 2002 Act made the bankruptcy law tighter is that the bankrupt no longer has an indefinite period to sell his family home. Plus the bank can object to the grant of a bankruptcy order (and presumably would for an employed person who is able to meet the repayments). It certainly isn’t an obvious choice to go bankrupt in the face of negative equity unless you have also lost your job which thankfully isn’t the issue it was in the early 1990s.
74 - People rarely member specifics but it paints a picture. People struggled to remember the specifics of sleaze allegations in 1997 but recalled enough to view the outgoing government as sleazy. Also, Cable’s big win in all this is credibility for the Lib Dems amongst economics editors. They certainly won’t forget that Darling did everything he could to dress up a bad deal for the taxpayer as avoiding nationalisation, or that Osborne was four steps behind throughout the process, seemingly unable to grasp the issues. It is a big Cable triumph.
Hague destroying the govt in the chamber.
Milliband looked like an amateur.
He made the LDs look even worse.
82. Its a cruel and unusual punishment.. Hague totally commanding the house…..
Hague is making a fantastic speech. Hope it gets some coverage
64 Roger. You are correct. “Life of Brian” was indeed banned in Norway. Things have improved since then.
OT. New government crisis in Italy.
A little centrist party whose leader is under investigation left the government majority
82,83 and 84 I am glad some others witnessed a great speech and such an excrutiating performance by the govt. every labour and libdem MP should hang their heads in shame, not at their views on the treaty, but at the disgraceful way they have treated parliament and the public. I hope many of them remember this day when they stare at their p45’s after the next election and ask themselves was it worth it.
Tories had better find someone better than Hammond to put up against Cable next time on TV. Twinkletoes pasted Hammond so heavily on Newsnight that Paxxo was left laughing on the sidelines.
“But what would YOU do?”
Did anyone else enjoy Gordon ignoring Manmohan Singh’s handshake?
87 - Perhaps Rudy Giuliani can try his luck in the Old Country if (or rather when) he goes tyts up in Florida!
WHERE ARE ALL THE GIULIANI BOOSTERS?
Especially considering that with no clear frontrunner, the GOP race is positioned just the way that Rudy’s “Brain Trust” wants it.
In theory.
82,83,84,87 The dawn chorus are out early (or is it late?) today.
Of course, roger, call nurse now, everything is fine, it really is a different treaty.
OT: I remember seeing a poll a while ago which said that:
People thought better of David Cameron than Gordon Brown, however people thought better of the Labour party than the Conservative party. Has there been any similar polls recently?
Gorbals mick seems to be reluctant to allow a vote on an amendement proposing a referendum. I had thought that the Speaker was supposed to act in the interest of the Commons not the Government.
92 “The dawn chorus are out early (or is it late?) today.”
The dawn chorus is one of the most uplifting sounds one could ever wish to hear.
Whereas you Roger are just a squawking crow, a parrot of the party line, the melancholy cry of the curlew carried out to sea on the wind - listened to by no-one.
re 94. It was done a couple of times during 2007 by Mori. It’s in one of these polls.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/political/archive.shtml
97. Thanks. I notice Brown has a higher “would make a better leader” percentage than cameron, although only by a small margin and the labour party now has a lower level of “support” than the conservative party.
Andrea,
Is the collapse of the govt now imminent?
Many thanks.
99 I could make a joke, but it’s just too damn easy …
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2141677120080121?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true
This poll has McCain leading 34-23 over Giuliani in NY, then has Hillary 48-32 over Obama in the same state.
It says they interviewed 1467 registered voters between Jan 15-17, with an MOE of 3%.
If they interviewed registered Republicans for the first set of numbers and registered Democrats for the second, that would be only 734 voters in each poll - wouldn’t that be a higher margin of error than 3% (UK polls of over 1000 voters are under 3% MOE aren’t they? whereas US polls of 500ish are about 5%?)
Does this mean that they are wrong about the MOE, or does it mean that they asked all registered voters about the GOP race, then all 1500 were asked about the Dem race? If the latter, then the poll is worthless, if for no other reason than almost all the people who liked McCain will be voting in the Dem primary.
WNBC/Marist produce some good polls I thought - can somebody explain this to me?
90/91. SSI - I know you’re no fan of Giuliani, but surely too early to write him off (just as some who shall not be named here wrote off Hillary a little prematurely on the 8th)? Let’s wait until his results from Florida are known. As you rightly say, Rudi couldn’t have set up the current position better had he had the opportunity to.
The most recent three polls listed on RCP give the lead to three different candidates and the worst (and most recent) for Rudi puts him six points back - not an insurmountable deficit - with the best giving him a one-point lead. That said, the economy issue could be coming at the right time for Romney (and hence for the Democrats, given the head-to-heads).
Does anyone know if and where we can seee some absentee voters details.Before GOP Michigan primary I read on RCP that Romney had a lead of 3 to 1 on absentee voting.Isnt ansentee voting a good indicator of who may do well?
101. both NY primaries are closed, so there would be no point asking Democrats about the Republican nomination and vice-versa, and yes, I believe your MOE figures are right (though I stand to be corrected).
FWIW, I don’t think they shed that much light on the picture. Hillary leads in home state - hardly the biggest story of the campaigns! I’d be surprised if the mirror image isn’t the case in Illinois. On the GOP side, as I imply at [102], the result in Florida will impact on Feb 5th if - and it’s a big if - Rudi wins there. If he does, his lack of presence in the campaign so far (surely responsible in no small part for his falling national ratings), will be a thing of the past and he’ll get the kind of boost that other candidates have received after winning a state or two.
104. Just reading it back, there’s a really snide tone in that post that I didn’t mean and wasn’t merited in the reply to sensible questions. Apologies if that’s how it’s come across.
105 - I didn’t read any such tone! You’re one of the politest posters here, so it never would have crossed my mind that you were being snide.
Your point is also well made - if Giuliani wins Florida he’ll get a boost, especially in NY. If he loses Florida, he’s dead in the water, so it’s a moot point.
Wow, that Dispatches was a real eye-opener!
I didn’t realise just how out of control Ken is. If this story becomes the narrative I wonder if people could turn against him. Having said that, one of the things Blair discovered (and used to his advantage) was that the Brits, like most nations, actually tolerate outrageous behaviour if they think it is part of the “strong leader” façade.
It’s a shame though that they tried to attack him at the end on the success of the congestion charge, because it didn’t really stick then and decreased the impact of the program…
107 but surely it is Boris who was likely to gaffe during the campaign! Drinking scotch at 10 in the morning during a GLA meeting is surely a gaffe?
Did anybody see the Dispatches programme on Ken on Channel 4? It didn’t quite live up to it billing but it was still worrying all the same. The problem seems to be that the Mayor was created without proper checks and balances and is not really accountable to anybody.
I see Boris has tightened to 1.3-1 on Betfair. It was at nearly 2-1 last week.
95: the problem is I think that it’s a backbench amendment. For whatever reason the Conservatives haven’t proposed it - possibly a tactical error, or maybe they think it’s cleverer to keep the issue alive into the committee stage.
Two interesting snippets from Populus’s monthly commentary (not selected to prove anything, just thought they’d interest people here):
The party of…
David Cameron recently set the Conservatives a goal of replacing Labour in the public mind as ‘the party of the NHS’. Populus decided to find out how ambitious a target this is. Our latest poll for The Times tested the extent to which some issues, like the NHS, are more strongly associated with one party than the others.
Even though polls now generally show Labour with a very narrow lead over the Conservatives (4% in December) as ‘the party most trusted to manage the NHS’, they are still regarded as ‘the party of the NHS’ by twice as many voters (42%) as the Conservatives (21%).
By almost the same margin (43%/21%) the Conservatives are regarded as ‘the party that’s tougher on law & order’. The Conservative Party is also viewed by more people (35%) than Labour (20%) as ‘the party of lower taxes’, but Labour holds a slight edge (31%/26%) as ‘the party of sound economic management’.
The widest gap between the two main parties was on which was ‘the party that’s more committed to state education’. 46% named Labour, only 20% the Conservatives. Only 17% think of the Conservatives as ‘the party of fairness’ – the only measure on which the Lib Dems fared better (20%) than one of the two bigger parties. 26% think of Labour as ‘the party of fairness’, but tellingly just as many think that the phrase doesn’t apply to any party.
and on New Hampshire:
The trend line of the polls was in the wrong place – instead of scattering either side of the result, every single poll put Mrs Clinton too low. It wasn’t just late swing – we can be sure of that because the exit poll was wrong too. The poll bias was not pro-Obama, it was anti-Clinton – probably a result of a ‘spiral of silence’: Obama-fever was so intense that some voters just didn’t want to admit they were planning to vote for Hillary Clinton instead.
107
Yes,scary and worse still if you have to pay for this circus.
Interesting that many of Ken’s pals on the left have now turned against him.
Surely the success of a congestion charge is that it relieves congestion which clearly it hasn’t,as the film showed traffic times in central London have increased by 2 seconds per kilometre and London is still the slowest city in Europe.
Apart from solving the congestion problem the scheme was sold to us as a way of raising revenue for transport improvement,as the film showed by the time the private sector company running the scheme had taken their cut there is little money left.
Second Florida poll today does NOT confirm Rasmussen. Survey USA - changes from last week: McCain 25 (-), Rudy 20 (-1) Romney 19 (+1) Huck 14 (-4).
113. Still Romney was the better value. Where is Hucks fall going to?
On a note of pure self interest, do you think I could get away with stopping payments on my Northern Rock personal loan? Any chance it will fall through the cracks?
110 But Boris is still 1.625/1 with Paddy Power
111. Clinton simply had depth is support in NH that wasnt in Iowa..she also didnt have Edwards providing such a strong challenge.
Even if her supporyt was soft, it still meant it was soft for Obama. All she had to do was glavanise it, like McCain in SC.
And she did.
AVE IT’s FINANCIAL STABILITY PAGE
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Total global nuclear thermal stock market meltdown!
Under Lab, UK faces FTSE = 1000 soon and all pensions wiped out!!
Biggest economic crisis since 1066!!!
On SC does anyone thing Edwards could collapse there?
114 Number of undecided are up.
Better news for Giuliani in a new Zogby (unreliable) NY poll. McCain 24, Rudy 21, Mitt 14, Huck/Fred 7.
120. They have to go somewhere…would former Hucksters go Romney?
I notice Romney’s odds have really tightened today. Hes in bet lay territory for me already.
118. “Biggest economic crisis since 1066!!!”
1066BC ??
Looking through the SC polls, when Edwards is weak, Clinton seems to boost.
Edward sis running around 13-15% which is steady. It wouldnt take much exchange however and Clinton would be a lot closer to Obama than meets the eye.
People have knocked on about how the black community make up near 50% of the vote and are mightlily pissed off over the race stories and so will go all out for Obama.
What would the blue collar whites will think?
115. I heard one anecdotal, possible apocryphal, that someone was called by the Northern Rock call centre chasing payment for a loan. The conversation went like this:
NR - How are you going to pay back the money you owe us?
Borrower - How are you going to pay back the 50bn you owe the government?
The Northern Rock agent promptly hung up… So who knows, it might work.
124 just deduct the 2000 per taxpayer that NRock owe and start the conversation again!
122 - indeed total economic wipeout!!!!!
Agree totally, albeit as a non-conformist Tory that Hammond was swept aside by VC, another great performance from him, I just wish there were more Tory MP’s with such a firm grasp on Northern Rock as Vince, credit where credit is due.
Also agree with comments further up about how messy this sub-prime crisis is getting. If this spreads as expected now to the wider bond market thanks to AMBAC credit rating downgrade, then I think we’ve only seen a taste of things to come - this could easily set off a credit de-rating across the board, and with another set of hideous government borrowing figures, c7.5bn for December, then I am very concerned for the immediate economic outlook.
from the MyDD left leaning website
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Florida Polling
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:06:16 PM EST
Post Nevada, Survey USA with a new poll out of Florida:
Clinton 56 (51)
Obama 23 (32)
Edwards 12 (11)
Obama pulls 69 percent of black voters, Clinton pulls 74 percent of hispanic voters. It’s among white voters, where Clinton bests Obama by a whopping 60-16-15 percentage. Florida has already started voting, and among those who have already voted, Clinton has a 72 - 17 percent lead over Obama.
Clinton has expanded her campaign strategy nationally this week:
A source in the Clinton campaign confirms that Hillary Clinton will be spending most of the week before the South Carolina primary in states other than South Carolina. She’s expected to spend Tuesday in California and Arizona, and New Mexico. Wednesday she will be in New Mexico and New Jersey and probably New York.
Not too much stock in South Carolina, where Obama is scheduled to be in South Carolina, both Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably the whole week. Clinton returns on Thursday and Friday to South Carolina.
Huge majority for the European Treaty on Second Reading - 136, I think it was. Where are those 100 Labour rebels that Tories here were insisting would materialise? Even the Sun relegated it to a small second leader.
They can have another go when we get to an implementation clause (five, I think) in a few weeks’ time.
129. As SeanT (and I don’t necessarily like siding with him) said earlier on today though Nick, the big question as opposed to any trumpeting about majorities is why you (and a majority of Labour MPs) first didn’t want to have a referendum, then did, and now have changed their mind again.
At least Goldsmith only changed his mind once!
Just read Anatole Kaletsky’s column on Northern Rock - finishes “The Northern Rock bailout will demolish or, at best, discredit the entire economic policy framework created in 1997. Since the creation of this framework was his one unquestionable achievement, it seems fair to say that Mr Brown’s career as a serious politician ended yesterday.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article3227927.ece
As Northern Rock was the only share to rise in value today, that must be some sort of success.
Let’s remember, the market is back to where it was 18 months ago, don’t think we were all starving in the streets 18 months ago, markets go down, they go up, they go down.
As for the referendum, c’mon its boring, despite the best efforts of the Murdoch press, no one is going to the barricades on this one: in-or-out yeah, but over a few dots and commas, no way!
Anyway, now Brown has, ‘fixed’ the Chinese Murdoch will be purring like a kitten.
129. Well The Grim Bottler’s cowardice must be catching.
You’re triumphalism in getting away with bare faced lies is perhaps your low point in the short weeks I have been lurking here.
129. Im not sure thats something to boast about! 400+ mps break their promise to the electorate. way to restore trust in politians Nick!
132 - true Coldstone, but British equity has been amongst the poorest performing across world equities in the past 10 years, IIRC the FTSE 100 was about 4,500 when Labour came to power in 1997. Over such a long period of time, that doesn’t say a lot for investors and the confidence of the City in UK PLC does it?
Just seen Darling on newsnight, that was one of the most pitiful performances I’ve seen in a long time. The borrowing figures, I will say again, are an absolute disgrace and how anybody can credibly say that their borrowing rules are being met is beyond me, I just wish the IFS or an independent economic body of widespread repute would just come out and put the final nail in the coffin as far as that one is concerned! Even snowflakes might agree with us on that one now!!
130: As opposed to the Conservatives who didn’t want a referendum when in power, but now do, and have indicated that they won’t want one if they get back in?
133: Well, welcome to the forum anyway, JH.
132. You would have found a lot more share going up today if the government had agreed to prop them up as well.
136. So two wrongs make a right now dow they!!
Christ this government is depressing…
135
Seem to remember the last Conservative government had the odd spot of bother with the economy: the ERM disaster, the 87 crash, etc. I’m not ging to blow the trumpet for this government, but don’t have too much faith in Cameron or Osborne, what is it Heffer calls them, a couple of, ‘P.R Spivs.’
We need another poll. Is Populus the next one due?
139 - Oh you forgot to mention gas privatisation.. :yawn:
131 Ted.The Timesonline article is devastating - and frightening for its implications for the economy. Nick Palmer - interesting to read your comments- have you the honesty to admit that GB is (and frankly always has been) a disaster?
141
Ha! glad you mentioned that, do hope u enjoy the next round of increases, I’ve got a wood burner, suggest you get one to.
131. A devastating article. Allow me to quote one more paragraph:
But yesterday’s statement on Northern Rock represented an even more astonishing - and shocking - derogation of power: Mr Brown handed over the keys to the Treasury to Sir Richard Branson and Goldman Sachs, destroying in the process the entire economic and political framework that he created as Chancellor in 1997. With Britain’s foreign policy still firmly in the hands of the White House and European policy managed from Brussels, it is hard to see why Mr Brown bothers to turn up to work.
139 “the ERM disaster,“?
John Major was a rubbish PM who demonstrated the folly of tying Britain to Europe without considering the consequences.
However, pulling out of the ERM proved to be the most successful thing he ever did. Even the legenday double digit base rate only lasted for days - and never even matched the rates of the previous Labour rates.
Coldstone, your Corrupt Leftie Gangsters have entered the end game. No amount of smoke and mirrors will prevent the enevitable.
Thing that gets me is how lefties will excuse thei own corruption. It demonstrates that Socialism in the developed world stems from a mental illness and they are not fit to govern, teach or broadcast.
141
p.s.
I also live next to a bloody great big wood, so I can go and collect my own, suggest you do that to!
136. We’re not talking about the Conservatives here, Nick. We’re talking about *your* party. *You* didn’t want a referendum back when the constitution was being debated. You then changed your mind when the government magically promised one. And now you break your promise again by suddenly changing your mind once more.
Just because the Conservative Party position might not be to your liking doesn’t mean that you can brazenly break your promise to the electorate. I find it depressing that a Member of Parliament speaks in such a tone, to be honest.
Polls. Surely ComRes is now well overdue?
145
Hmmm isn’t it strange how mention of the ERM disaster brings the right wing loonies out of the woodwork, still stings doesn’t it!!
145
As for being mentally ill. I’ve got a certificate that says I’m not.
139 - I wasn’t saying that the last Conservative government had a perfect economic record, far from it, but when you consider how much better shape the economy was in 1997 relative to 1979, and indeed 1990 for that matter, and now where the economy is relative to 1997, then at least the record was ‘bumpy improvement’ to 1997. Yes an independent central bank would have made a much better job of steering the UK economy through the major recessions of 1979-81 and 1990-92 than was the case.
I for one feel a great deal of anger at how the best economic legacy since WW2, words of the Treasury officials in 1997 - not mine, has been squandered over the past 10/11 years through a combination of dreadful microeconomic policy, government over spending and taxation, and a declining education system that is leaving a bed of nails for UK companies to work with, hence the great desire to get immigrants in that have the skills that UK companies should be able to find in the domestic labour force. Yes the minimum wage and BoE independence were great, but practically everything else that GB did in time I believe will be seen as truly dreadful.
146 - Probably the best place for you…and the rest of us.
139 Coldstone “I’m not ging to blow the trumpet for this government..”
You fooled me on that one.
Coldstone. Recovered,have you?
149. Coldstone, you are ill. Literally, a Loony Leftie.
Notice a Labour Government, a Livingstone and a GLC brings the Loony Lefties out. Next thing you know, they will ban Bah Bah Black Sheep.
Pulling out of the ERM was a long time ago. I couldnt even vote. I can now.
155
So the reason you couldn’t vote, were you in the sort of place where you weren’t allowed to?
150. Did you write it yourself in crayon?
Or did Hugo Chavez sign it?
Or Yusuf al-Qaradawi?
145 - Sorry, is that “noddle” - as in “use your noddle” - what should we say “Creature alert”!
Matt1
ditto.
But not surprising.
On the main subject the public have been sold a pig in a poke on the hope that there is no housing crash or recession, something the money markets are clearly fearful of.
This has the power to rancour, even if only a bit and add to the tale of a stale government well past its sell by date having only sold us dreams in smoke and mirrors whilst shackling us with huge debts.
What seems to be coming across in the media is that we are still liable for the debts but are about to lose the benefit of the assets. I doubt the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats will be playing that point down.
Nick Palmer The Conservatives are unlike Labour and the LibDems: they are sticking to their 2005 manifesto pledge to hold a referendum on the EU constitution. And as the committee, led by Labour MPs,report says, the Lisbon Treaty is indistinguishable from the previous constitution.
However you twist and turn you cannot hide the fact that you are breaking your promise on this.
Gordon Brown when asked by Sky News about the value of the promises in the Labour manifesto during the 2005 election campaign “All the promises we make at the election will be promises that we will keep during the next Parliament.”
Reneging on promises to the electorate is not a good policy.
158 Tim13, whats the matter? Coldstone lost the argument and got more than he gave?
Ah, didums. Poor baby. Go tell mummy..
Be a grown up and use logic and debate or shut the f* up.
Now, after kicking the @rse of a loony leftie, I’m off to bed.
Re 8, Sean Fear, “O/T but I see that Cuba’s ruling party won their general election today, winning 614 out of 614 seats, on a 95% turnout.&#