The Tory commons spreads move up 3-4 seats
January 22nd, 2008
New buy levels put Cameron only 17/18 seats short
In the high risk high reward arena of commons seats spread betting there’s been a significant move to the Tories in the aftermath of the Northern Rock statement and the ongoing stock market troubles. When this was last covered here at the end of last week the highest Tory buy level was 304 seats - 21 short of an overall majority.
In the past 24 hours there’ve been big moves to the Tories so that Sporting Index, shown above has now moved to 307 seats along with Spreadfair while IG Index is at 308. The sell levels are about six seats lower.
I stand to be corrected but I think that this is the highest level that the Tories have been at since the 1992 general election.
Normally these markets move up in relatively small steps and a three/four seat jump is quite unusual. Whether this will be sustained or even move higher it is hard to predict. But the current level are considerably smaller than the 345 Tory seats that the commons seat calculators are predicting on the recent 10% Tory poll leads.
What makes this form of betting attractive is that the more you are right in your prediction the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. Also the operators like Sporting Index have made it much easier to open credit accounts almost instantly on-line so that you do not have to hand over any money when you bet - a feature that’s invaluable when betting on an outcome that might be more than two years away.
But be warned. If you buy the Tories at 308 seats at £50 a seat and they only finish with 258 MPs then you would lose £2500.
Declaration of interest As part of my plan to put PBC on a more sustainable financial basis there is now an agreement in place between the site and Sporting Index under which commissions are paid for accounts that are opened. If you are opening an account then please use the links here.
Mike Smithson
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Weren’t you selling Tory seats at 304?
2 Glad to see, Mike, that SI are shelling out for some of the business you send their way!
Atb
Btw (and o/t) nobody seems to have commented on the latest poll by our friends Aaarrrggghhhh which has McCain 7 points up in Florida.
Nobody taking them seriously anymore?
Following on the discussion from the previous thread of Romney v McCain, new poll shows Romney closing on McCain in Califonia
http://thephoenix.com/article_ektid54916.aspx
Sorry to disagree with you Mike but I bought Labour 4 days ago on Spreadfair at 273 and it’s now at 276.5. The opposite of what you say. Labour have actually firmed on Spreadfair during the current crisis, and I’d appreciate a correction on your frontpiece.
Drudge reporting Johnny Wilkinson has been found dead?
http://www.drudgereport.com/
The labour fightback consists of deception over the EU treaty (although nobody cares apparently), a disgraceful settlement of the northern rock scenario (its the best outcome apparently), mass corruption (hain etc) and compulsory domestic science education!
This government is dead in the water, nothing to say on anything, and mired in domestic failure on every subject.
buying Tory seats id the only sensible option.
The only labour success recently has been the deception over the EU treaty…….some success.
re 5. Sporting Index, IG and Spreadfair currently have Tory buy levels of 308, 307 and 307. These are up 3-4 seats on what they were at the end of last week.
The Spreadfair prices are determined by what other punters are prepared to offer and the firm can sometimes show markedly different levels from SI and IG which is probably what has happened here.
6- sorry Heath Ledger, a fine young actor, and really sad
3 - I am too polite to state what I think of Aaarrrggghhhh.
If you see a Mason Dixon poll on Florida with a significant McCain lead then I will take it seriously.
8. Mike, fine, but I do think your frontpiece is a bit misleading therefore - especially as you so regularly trumpet Spreadfair. I’ve just emailed you my betting slip. It was actually 2 days ago that I bought Labour at 273, with the price now at 276.5. I’ve been watching the price carefully and over the past 48 hours Labour have firmed steadily.
CON WIN EVERYTHING
re 8. I notice that the current SF Labour buy is £10 on offer at 276.5. The SI Labour buy price is currently 271 while on IG it is at 270.
Looking at Brown’s risible efforts to show international stature in China and India I would have thought that the Tories stock should go on rising, that is until you see Cameron up close and personal.
Brown and Cameron- I do not think who is worse, Brown is woeful, then you look at the dismal and dire Cameron. Is Brown more awful than Cameron, probably yes, today. But tomorrow Cameron may well out do him in sheer atrociousness. Tough one this one.
Mike are these moves just sentiment or is there a poll due out>?
re 11. Quite often Spreadfair does throw up bargains because of the prices are fixed by what other punters are doing.
It would seem that at current levels the Tory and Labour spreads on SF are out of alignment.
10 - The last Mason Dixon poll put Giuliani 21 points ahead in Florida. Basically the pollsters are as bad as each other and it’s best to take an overview of them all, coupled with guesstimates of potential movement.
16 - agreed. That’s fine Mike & thanks for email. Just didn’t want my bet shaken too much by your influence!
I quite like my buy @273 …
18 - buy at 273 is looking good. In the short to medium term Brown should manage to get a small rise in the polls due to the economic conditions as he is still more trusted on the economy.
re 18. I tend now to focus solely on Tory seats buying and selling because there does seem to be more movement. The former political market maker for one of the big firms told me that there are usually many more potential Tory buyers about than Labour ones and if they start to feel confident then the money piles in. That’s what I think has happened in the past 24 hours.
The big punters usually find SF a bit limiting because of the amounts that are available to bet.
17 - Most of the polls for Florida showed huge Giuliani leads but that was months ago. A lot has changed since then.
19 “due to the economic conditions”, thats a good one! they could hardly be worse.
22 - come now. They could be worse. Our speculation isn’t helpful. The information that the market should be using is the price information. Group think and herd mentality damages our information and thus our responsiveness to the market, making it more volatile. Unless you’re putting your money where your mouth is I don’t think you should be taken that seriously. See this post by Chris Dillow here
http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2008/01/wisdom-of-crowd.html
O/T. Someone a few threads ago asked about Kondratiev Waves.
Prepare to be very, very scared….
http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/pdf/07_12_04_News.pdf
Now is the Winter….
Re previous thread, nice article in RCP on who benefits from Thompson dropping out.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/01/thompsons_out_who_gains.html
Answer seems to be nobody much.
24 - Ooh yes, I thought I might be onto something!
20. I’ve not really been watching the Tory seat price, mainly because I’m working on the basis that I don’t see Labour going below 275. Even with the boundary changes, the vote is so skewed in Labour’s favour that at the moment (this may change) I like my position.
Re. the Tories though: an addition of 100 seats to their tally, even with those boundary changes, still looks a big ask to me.
Those sort of prices look to me plausible if we’re dealing here with the sort of seismic shift which happened after Black Monday, with the fallout in 1997. I don’t ’sense’ that sort of shift just at the moment. It may come but the Labour share is still surprisingly strong. Tories need to see Labour pitching into the 20’s (as happened to the Tories regularly between 1993 and 1997) for that sort of swing to be really likely … in my opinion.
Some preliminary predictions for primaries and caucuses up to, and including, Super Tuesday (if Giuliani loses Florida, or Obama loses South Carolina, this will look very different).
For the GOP
Romney (California, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Montana, Utah)
McCain (Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, N. Dakota, W Virginia)
Giuliani (Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York)
Huckabee (Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee)
For the Democrats:
Clinton (Florida, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah)
Obama (South Carolina, Alabama, California, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, Tennessee)
In each case, the hardest state to call is California. For the GOP, I think this is a Giuliani/Romney/McCain three-way battle, and for the Dems, northern California (inc SF) will go Obama while southern California (inc LA) goes for Hillary.
Florida robbed of half its delegates by the GOP, and Illinois not winner-takes-all means Giuliani can only expect about 240 delegates in total by the end of Super Tuesday, unless he wins California, which would give him and extra 173 or so. Romney will get about 140 plus 173 from California, making 313 if he wins there. McCain should pick up 240 fairly easily without California (lots of states, but few WTAs), and Huckabee should collect 202 from his four states.
I cannot see any of the top six candidates dropping out after Super Tuesday, especially as all Dem primaries are proportional to a degree. 1,191 delegates are needed on the GOP side, and with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and North Carolina still in play, I think the chances of a brokered convention are strong as long as McCain doesn’t win either Florida or California.
25 - There is also an interesting piece on Giuliani as well in Washington Monthly:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_01/012940.php
Appears he is tanking everywhere… and Huck not surprisingly is the benefactor.
This has probably been posted before but the government is still in denial that there’s anything wrong with the pig’s ear of a postal voting system they’ve created. Still they’ll probably need these votes next time.
re 24 …made glorious summer if I remember correctly
28 - Obama winning California, you sure?
From 117 on the last thread.
Yes there is mass bureaucracy in a lot of systems, but anyone that follows EU affairs can not deny the sheer size of the bureaucracy compared to the UK. Would the British government be able to get away with decamping its whole apparatus several hundred of miles every month or so, as the the EU does to Strasbourg? Bureaucratic growth is somewhat of a natural effect of government when you don’t have the democratic accountability to do anything to stop it (see the USSR).
As for preventing corruption, one EU politician (I forget her name) wanted to use double entry accounting (something you need to operate as a PLC in pretty much every civilised country) so they could see where the funds were going missing. The EU not only denied her mesasure, but they quickly moved her sideways into obscurity for daring to raise it. The establishment didn’t want to bring in this measure as it would show just how much funding was being lost through corruption.
As for the “gravy train” aspect, EU civil servants and commissioners get paid far more for doing far less than our politicians and bureaucrats. It’s a cushty job and you know it. I don’t have the time to find exact details this week due to a hectic workload, but if you really want to challenge this point I can comprehensibly win on it!
28. I would be shocked if Clinton takes religious places like Utah over Obama, unless there was an Obama meltdown. Equally with places like Idaho, which are similar in makeup to Iowa.
31. In about 30 years from now…
32. Agreed. California will go Clinton due to the huge number of urban women.
29 The shag scandal?
He got into trouble over a large seagoing bird??
27 Back in 2005, I predicted the Tories would win c.205 seats, overoptimistic in the end, but still a reasonable prediction. What I did was to check opinion polls in the run up to the 2005 election with those from 2001. They pointed to a fairly big Lab-Con swing. I made a working assumption that the big swing to the Lib Dems shown in the polls would hit Labour, not the Conservatives. These were reasonable assumptions on the basis of my knowledge of politics.
Then I just ran through the hundred or so most marginal Labour seats, and the ten or so most marginal Lib Dem seats (over the Tories) and decided what were the most likely to fall, given my local knowledge, local election results and regional shifts (such as a big swing away from Labour in London). So, I came up with Tories winning about 40 from Labour (31 in the end)and a couple from the Lib Dems (correct but they went both ways).
Doing a similar rough exercise, looking at about the 120 most marginal Labour seats leads me to believe that Labour will struggle to win more than c.250 or so at the next election.
31 That’s right. By this glorious son of York, I think. Dwight, presumably?
28 — Morus, Clinton is way ahead in the current California polls.
O/t but having just completed my tax return if bets are to be put on a more enforceable footing how long will it be before the HMRC wants a cut?
40 Never, Chris. They would have to allow the losses too.
25: thanks. Interesting bit:
“Second, again thanks to Jon Cohen, a look at The Post’s last national poll suggests that McCain may gain a very slight boost from Thompson’s departure. If Thompson is eliminated and his supporters’ second choices are re-allocated, that poll showed McCain leading the Republican field with 30 percent — two percent higher than he received with Thompson included in the ballot test. The only other candidate to make gains with the reallocation of Thompson supporters was Rudy Giuliani, who went from 15 percent with Thompson in to 18 percent with him out.”
Are Thompson’s followers being influenced by his friendship with McCain, or is this simply the national security contingent of his support finding their most likely home?
Probably more important though is who benefits in Florida. Lose there and Giuliani will be mocked relentlessly, given his explicit focus on the state, and you have to wonder if he has any chance in the race after that. A win for McCain I think puts him over the top for Tuesday, not just because of momentum but also as Giuliani’s voters have been clearly transferring to him.
A Florida win for Romney and McCain will still be favourite in the markets, but not by much.
28 What happens to your ‘new math’ IF Giuliani gets zilch. Which is by far the most likely outcome, which will become clear when he finishes tanking in Florida. Heck, he’ll be out of the race 48 hours after the polls close in Hileah.
Remember how Thompson was going to start setting the woods on fire once the race got down to Dixie? How’d THAT plan work out? Submit that Florida will do for Giuliani what the Palmento State did for Sleepy: put him out of his misery.
Well you found the weakest link - let’s see if I can reinforce it on the fly!
Maybe it’s wishful thinking, because it keeps it tight. I think if Clinton wins in California, its all over for Obama, so maybe I just want to see it stay exciting.
However, all the polls that have Clinton ahead have her ahead by a lot less than she was. Obama is certainly catching up in the polls, and I do not think it is a foregone conclusion if he manages to get some momentum back.
Since November (before then, Obama was a no hoper), Clinton has made ten visits, to Obama’s 4, so it’s not like he’s wooing the State by living there.
Fundraising Jan to 31st Oct 2007 (when Clinton was 20% clear in all national polls at least) saw Obama raise $12.26m in California, versus $12.17m for Clinton. He led everywhere north of Santa Barbera, she led everywhere South. FEC returns are filed 31st Jan - have a look at the numbers now he’s viable. He is capable of winning this. The polls mean nothing until a week before and in the case of NH, not even then.
Let’s see what happens!
39 - Big win for Obama in SC will translate into overnight gains for him in CA and across the nation.
42 - Simply redistributing results of polls a week to 10 days old is suspect methodology. For one thing, catches the Huckabee bounce & resurrection of McCain, but misses Mitt’s own Lazarus act (substiting Lansing for Bethany).
Even as someone who has been warning not to write Giuliani off, if he loses by more than 4 points in Florida he’s out of the race.
45 - I suspect that the SC result will be closer than people expect.
16, 18
Seeing as its my £10 at 276.5 I thought I might explain why. I was at 273 before, and I would still be there, but I moved it back to 276.5 because I needed the money for the presidential market, I don’t have a credit account. I don’t want to trade on Labour seats unless it is for really good value.
I think another reason the markets have moved is that the $400-500 that was buying Labour has been withdrawn. I assume it was withdrawn anyway and was only ever there to intimidate. Quite successfully in my case since I am not prepared to commit the cash required to take on that kind of position.
43 Ok, I always said Thompson would have no impact, so I’m not taking the can for whoever pointed you to that moonshine. And what the hell is ‘new math’?
If Giuliani is out of the race, it depends who beats him in Florida. If Huckabee takes Florida (hmmm), I have no idea who takes California, Illinois, NY, or NJ.
If Romney or McCain takes Florida, that could be the momentum that gives them California, and then its game over. But really no clue. Personally think Giuliani will scrape Florida.
In Florida, if anyone’s interested, McCain raised $1.5m, Romney $2.5m, Giuliani $3.5m. Giuliani has made 51 appearances, versus McCain’s 5, and Romney’s 17. I don’t reckon you can give a state that sort of attention and get clobbered that badly. If he loses it will be tight.
I hope he wins it to keep it interesting.
47 - Think you could be right. Certainly seems that Clinton strategy is to talk up Obama’s chances in SC, both to do a sidestep a la Romney, but also to claim a “moral victory” if Obama’s margin is unspectacular.
There don’t seem to be any odds available on the Florida republican primary (even betfair doesn’t seem to have it up). For me Guliani will surely win in Florida despite what the polls are saying and I intend to back him (when i find some odds). Must remember the polls have not been too accurate so far in the nomination process, namely Romney’s michigan win and Clinton in new hampshire. Guliani all the way for me in Florida.
51 Betfair Florida GOP is up, and 5 for Giuliani is value.
1.96 for McCain, and 2.92 for Romney is not.
Rudy Guiliani 2008 = Douglas Macarthur 1948
Sixty years ago the celebrity, charisma and electoral prospects of the Hero of the Phillipines rivaled that of the Mayor of 9/11.
Yet like Rudy this year, Doug found few votes on the campaign trail. Mac’s best showing: 34% and 2nd place behind Harold Stassen in the Wisconin Primary.
Seriously doubt Giuliai will come close to either mark this year.
Scipio, Mike, Richard and others. The lack of liquidity on Spreadfair is a big problem. I first got into this market about 18 months ago, admittedly to smaller stakes than subsequently. But recently the market seems permanently stalled. Would be interested if others agree and what, if anything can be done to energise it?
49 - Real question in Florida isn’t how much you raised there, it’s how much you SPEND.
Romney’s turning on the tap. McCain’s looking for more money, along with Huckabee. Rudy’s tapped out.
Turns out that $2.4 mil Giuliani spent in NH in 2007, which translated to over $350 for every vote he got in NH primary, was NOT a sound investment.
51 - Yet another inspiring example of the faith that paseth all understanding.
49 Remember that Giuliani also made plenty of appearences in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Problem with Rudy is, the more people get a chance to see him personally, the more likely they are to cross him off their presidential dance card.
He is NOT the Happy Warrior!
53 - SSI, I suspect you might be right, and as it said, those picks were conditional on Giuliani winning Florida.
I’d be interested in your take on some of the other states though - Georgia for the Dems is going to be High Noon, but I think Obama can beat the establishment there.
Betfair prices for Super Tuesday are all over the shop:
in Illinois, Obama 1.5, Clinton 1.67. (that close in his own state!)
in Mass, Obama 3.5, Clinton 1.1 (value when Kerry is endorsing Obama, and Ted Kennedy is snapping at Bill for being rude)
in California, Obama 3.25, Clinton 1.23 (value, value, value)
in Arizona, Obama 1.16, Clinton 1.29 (with how Hispanics voted in NV!)
For the GOP
in Cali: McCain 1.3 (tight), Huckabee 1.93 (?), Romney 2.36 (value if Giuliani drops out), Giuliani 3.35 (he’s raised the most money there - value if he’s still in surely?)
Romney is 5.3 for NY, and 3.2 for NJ, which again is value if Giuliani drops out.
49 - “New Math” is what they started teaching kids in the State back in the 1960s - 70s. Sapped the moral vigor of a great nation.
Morus, Paddypower now have some prices up for the California and New Jersey primaries. Does anything catch your eye?
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=31&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=9331
57 - Betting math is NOT my forte.
BUT do think that odds do understate Obama’s home state strength. Even groups that lean to Hillary elsewhere will stick with Obama in the Land of Lincoln.
Demographics in Massachusetts better for Obama than NH demographics.
ALso think that Obama’s Hispanic problem is overblown UNTIL there is evidence beyond Nevada. Because NV was a caucus state where intra-union rivalries played at least as much of a role as the actually presidential race.
RE: State Fundraising numbers - these measure where the MONEY is, not (necessarily) where the votes are. EVERYONE goes to CA to raise $$$$ including Brit parties (from eligibles one hopes).
60 - Real fundraising number that has direct electoral significance is average contribution per donor. The lower THAT number, the better when it comes to votes. Because one donor (of whatever size) = 1 to 3 votes.
My guess is that Giuliani’s Kali millions came from select and SMALL number o’ fatcats.
61 via bundling that is.
59 - I reckon 9/2 on Giuliani in CA is good if you think he can win in Florida, 11/2 on Romney in NJ is excellent value if you think Giuliani drops out after FL or if Romney wins FL.
4/1 on Obama in California is definitely value in CA, and I’ll take some of that. That race *is* going to be closer than they are pricing it (1/20 on Clinton in CA is just silly).
Sadly, I have a breakfast meeting, so need some sleep, but I’m going to spend the meeting wondering if there is some way to arb on Romney’s odds in NY, NJ, IL, and CA based on Giuliani losing FL, especially if Romney pulls off a win in FL.
Polls to watch after Dem SC (other than CA) are Georgia and Mass. I think Obama needs both to stay alive - both for their delegate count, and to show he can win in the North East, and to see if the African-American vote in the South becomes a bloc he can rely on. Also interesting will be polls in NM, Colorado and Arizona, to see how badly he does amongst Hispanic voters.
Night all.
Re 55 “Yet another inspiring example of the faith that paseth all understanding.”
Whatever understanding you are claiming to hold, one thing appears clear to me. In four seperate florida polls in the past few days has shown three different leaders. They obviously can’t all be right, probably none of them are as the Americans seem to have forgotten how to carry out a decent opinion poll. Guliani has put by far the most time into Florida with the largest base support. At the odds quoted you’d be mad not to back Guliani.
Does anyone know anything about the Republican Louisiana Caucus
this evening?
Ok one more - SSI makes a really good point 60-62.
Giuliani’s fundraising is likely as you describe in CA, but that just strengthens the argument about Obama in CA - I reckon that before Haloween 2007, Obama did not have those mega donors in the same way as Hillary - he was 30% adrift then. I reckon there are thousands of students who are going to do serious legwork for him in that State, and 4/1 is value.
Hispanic problem is bigger than Nevada, though I agree about the Union thingy. He is trailing 55-12 to Clinton amongst hispanics - that must change if he want to do well in the GE (Richardson?!), but it could also hurt him in southern California.
Need to sleep. Nos Dda.
65 - Feb 9th, I thought?
54 stjohn - The only way of energising the Spreadfair markets is to encourage more many to open accounts with this firm. Whilst both Sporting and IG appear to put a good deal of marketing effort behind their operations, Cantor decidedly does not, plus IMHO their website is exceptionally poor compared with that of the competition to which I have referred.
I was surprised to see Mike claiming recently that, IIRC, approx 55%-60% of his GE seats bets had been transacted on Spreadfair - I monitor this market 2-3 times every day and I just can’t identify this degree of liquidity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_Republican_caucuses%2C_2008
This explains - a caucus elects the delegates tonight. If a candidate gets 50% on Feb 9th (primary) then they are committed at the RNC. If not, they are uncommitted.
69
Thanks for the link.
37,Good evenign,Sean,I trust you are well.I am shocked at you assertion that the Labour Party will ’struggle’ to hold 250 seats.
As a very,very social democratic moderate Labour voter,takign into account all factors(Rod Crosby swingback etc etc),the VERY best I could foresee for the Tories that they win one more seat in a 280-279 hung parlaiment-sorry if thats blunt,but based on conversations with 30-something mortgage holders,WHATEVER the last 36 hours have thrown up-and God knows there’s been a bit:wink:,the old adage ‘Bteer the devil you kknow’ would paly for Gordon Brown in a spring 2009 poll-I don’t diss DC;he’ll fight hard and fair,take a few Labour ultra-marginaks,a few sift southen LIb DEm seats,but if I had to bet £10 on it at this moment,Im would say Gordon Brown WILL win a fourth straight victory
33 I am sure we are both reduced to assertion this late at night! I agree about the issue of Strasbourg - Lib Dems have been campaigning on this for several years. Problem here, IMHO, is that, under the current structure, national Govts have disproportionate influence, and they are often encouraged to deliver “benefits” to their electorate. In this case the French Govt has armtwisted others to keep the Strasbourg Parl going. It is partly as a result of the British approach of “Don’t change anything, leave all our vetoes in place ” etc, that the French and others have been able to get away with this.
I don’t know about your example of double entry book keeping - are you an accountant, btw? But don’t get me on hobby horses this late at night! Which profession did the best out of the Thatcher “revolution”? Which profession has hampered and hindered public policy by its wretched conventions? I don’t say double entry han’t got sense to it, but I merely question the unalloyed benefits that some people would claim accountancy has given to this world.
As for what you claim to be the “gravy train” aspects - I am sure you will be able to show the odd thing, eg the “turn up for a minute of a session and you claim for it thing”, which has been changed. But in general terms, MEPs (and I am sure Commission staff) are paid what they would be at “home” plus certain allowances for living and working overseas. Now, I happen to know a bit about this game, being a personnel specialist, and someone who has spent time working abroad - and that is standard practise. It may be that the envy-merchants in the tabloids try to make something of it - but you just try to sell jobs”abroad” without such allowances!
71 Hi Patrick. Nice to see you posting again.
I’m off to Uncle now but hope to see you at the Party on Friday. Can you make it?
Atb.
71. For Labour to fall to 250 seats, the Tories would have to pick up about 25 seats from Scotland, the North-West, North-East and Yorkshire. I’d love Sean to name those 25 seats….
74,Rod,if I was swearing on a Bible(which as a very-lapsed Catholic I occasioannly do:wink:),the worst I can see for the Labour Party next time is to fall 10-15 seats short of overall majority:
(a)The non-Sinn Fein (ie 13) Ulster MPs and 5 Plaid Cymru would be UTTERLY dependable-there is no way of foreseeing how other parties would react,but I’m sure you and I would agree the back-slapping,self-congratlating right-wingers,who,sadly take 60-70% of the attention,will be very subdued when general election night GB actally happens-aww,shall we feel sorry for them? Will we F**K!!
Morus: Clinton’s lead in California is fairly stable at 12% and seems to have a good underlying structure in terms of expected turnout, see
signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20080122-9999-1n22field.html
But the samples are small and of course a good Obama win in SC could change things, as you say. (An amusingly grumpy post under the Field poll article moans that if the lead is due to women and seniors and immigrants, that “shows how this country is going” - yep, should never have given women the vote, eh, see how uppity they’re getting…)
Note also a poll reporting Clinton 3% ahead in Alabama, which I’d think calls into question the theory that Obama has a lock on much of the south - though the CA polls do show him miles ahead with African-American voters.
By the way, for all of you who are following the European treaty debate with fascination, I’ve done a count of letters and emails so far this month on Europe compared with Japanese whaling. The whales win 11-3…
74: Carlisle for one…….
176 Given the way things have been going for the govt and the dear old Labour Party, have every expectation of turning on the news in the very near future . . . to see them featuring clips of Gordon Brown standing tall . . . with a harpoon in his hand . . .
77. Last won 1959, when the Tories had a 100 seat majority and 49% of the popular vote.
Any others?
67 - there is indeed some kind of insider circlejerk in Louisiana tonight IN ADDITION TO Feb 9. Mention of it on Rep Party of LA website and also Times Picayne website, but no returns, at least not yet.
67 - there is indeed some kind of insider circlejerk in Louisiana tonight IN ADDITION TO Feb 9. Mention of it on Rep Party of LA website and also Times Picayne website, but no returns, at least not yet.
79 - Calder Valley?
Just listened to hilarious interview with Giuliani on NPR
-was asked what he’d do if he was president today and was negotiating re: economic stimulus program; replied by talking abou this long-range economic goals!
Answer to EVERYTHING goes back to when Rudy was mayor of NYC. Makes the Goodyear Blimp look like a 2nd rate windbag.
82. ex-Sowerby. Labour 1945-79, Tory 1979-97, Lab 1997-
Classic Yorkshire marginal. Tory candidate in 2005 thought she could enhance her prospects by conducting an affair with Tory MP….. She is no longer the candidate. Tory vote didn’t move 1997-2005.
I’d say no more than a 50/50 chance of a Tory gain next time….
84 What if new Tory challenger conducted affair with sitting Labour MP? Would that let the Lib Dem in through the middle (so to speak)?
Well the Lib Dems used to do quite well here in the eighties. If there was a by-election I’d tip them to win. However, in a normal general election it’s a Lab-Con marginal, with Labour having the edge usually…
79 Morecambe and Lunesdale?
87. An amazing turnaround. Formely safe Tory seat 1945-97. However, was one of Labour’s huge-swing gains in economically declining seaside towns in 1997. MP Geraldine Smith is immensely popular locally, and an assiduous local spokesperson. No sign of any Tory recovery between 1997-2005. Tories need to overturn a 5,000 majority at the next election. Chance? 4-1 against, in my view.
FROM THE FLORIDA CAMPAIGN TRAIL
Just got around to reading Seattle Post Intelligencer, source of following via AP:
“GIULIANI CROWDS SMALL
“Giuliani’s crowds have been a bit flat and small during a two-day, eight-event tour across Florida. At his first event Monday, only a few dozen people showed up at the aptly chosen Presidential Ballroom at Church Street, a banquet facility near downtown Orlando. Giuliani was enthusastically welcomed, mostly fervor aimed at the endorsment from New York Yankees outfielder Jonny Damon, who was accompanying the former New York mayor for the day.”
“In Sun City, Fla., on Sunday Giuliani got polite applause in a large but half-empty community hall. His team did fill up the rooms at most of his other Sunday events, though most were small venues.”
“At a rally Monday afternoon in Daytona Beach, Giuliani asked early voters to show their hands. About a dozen people in the crowd of about a couple of hundred raised their hands. ‘Well, you can’t vote again,’ he said to laughter, ‘But you can get somebody else to vote. I need your vote.’”
88 Think your learned discussion of actual seats shows two things:
1) the practical difficulty of shifting enough seats in the North of England to give Tories real traction nationally; but also
2) the fact that past shifts have been cataclysmic rather than glacial; in other words, the old order endureth UNTIL it gets a right kick in the right place at the right time by some lucky young turks.
I was amazed to read a message written by none other than our esteemed leader who wrote
“I cannot understand why SeanT and others get so worked up about the EU - they are very much in a small minority. Before Christmas Mori asked respondents “What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)”. there was no prompting.
Guess what the proportion was of respondents who said one of Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO?
Just one miserly percent.
The vast majority of people just do not give a damn. “
I would have thought that someone who is clever enough to be a professional gambler, albeit a Lib Dem one, would be aware that the EU significantly influences a whole range of policy issues.
What issues were named as the most important by the other 99%? Immigration? Energy? Taxation? Criminal justice? Trade? Isn’t Lord Smityhson aware that the EU makes most policy in those areasd as well? The figure of 1% above is completely meaningless in terms of judging how important the EU is.
91 typo: Smit
yhson, areasdA few days or weeks or whenever ago, someone predicted that the nominations for both (R) and (D) candidates for president would be so split that they would not be decided until the conventions. I responded by predicting that within 24 hours after Super Tuesday, there would be no more than 2 viable candidates for the Republican nomination, and only 1 for the Democratic party.
Now I think that both parties will have reached a de-facto decisive position by then: Clllinton will be way ahead of Obama, and someone (probably McccCain, but not necessarily) will be substantially ahead of all the others.
38. David Davis - born in York.