White House race - latest prices
January 23rd, 2008
The above are the mid afternoon (1545 GMT) prices on the races for the Democratic and the Republican nominees for this November’s US Presidential election.
The picture is getting much clearer as we move into the next crucial phase of state primaries. On Saturday 26 January it’s the South Carolina Democratic Primary and the following Tuesday there will be the crucial Republican and the Florida Democratic primaries. Once all those have been completed we should have an even firmer view of the two politicians who will head their parties tickets in November.
Although Obama looks set to win South Carolina this appears to have been discounted by the markets and unless there is a huge victory there I do not see much change in the Democratic betting.
The GOP race in Florida could be crucial for all the contenders still in the race and might well produce a surprise. Can Giuliani finally get his act together? Will McCain be able to hold onto to his lead? Is this the moment for Mitt Romney. Is it possible that the Iowa GOP victor, Mike Huckabee could get back in the race again?
My view is that the final will be Clinton against McCain or Romney.
Mike Smithson
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Good win for Brown at PMQs.
1. In your dreams maybe!!!!
1, a more solid performance, but he failed to answer any question. He also seemed confused, citing the economy he took on from Ken Clarke as dire when in fact he meant ’superb’.
However, we are currently treading water until:
1) the police charge Watt and perhaps others over Abrahams’ money
2) the electoral commission decides what to do with Hain of Orange
3) Northern Rock is resolved one way or another
Without big events and decisions PMQs tends to be less exciting, as it proved today. On the plus side, I’ve hired myself a four-man bodyguard and can now safely go and purchase a kebab.
1 Oh dear. First post to a troll. This site is going downhill. It was so much better in the good old days. I blame all the blue harpies and the Tory creatures.
I just looked up the definition of the word Gabble - it seemed very appropriate.
1. to speak or converse rapidly and unintelligibly; jabber.
2. (of hens, geese, etc.) to cackle.
–verb (used with object)
3. to utter rapidly and unintelligibly.
–noun
4. rapid, unintelligible talk.
5. any quick succession of meaningless sounds.
Perhaps we could improve the site by sending those who offer insults against people here to Coventry?
I predicted Clinton v Romney and I’m not changing my mind - what a drab ugly contest that will be.
Meanwhile our boom is less busty..
between October to December the economy grew just 0.6%, its lowest gain since the third quarter of 2006.
The credit squeeze hit the financial sector hard in the last quarter, which saw its weakest growth in four years.
Meanwhile, manufacturing industry saw an expansion of just 0.4% between October and December, as the higher price and reduced availability of credit hit business activity.
4 - You blame the right when the first post is from a Brown sycophant (a rare species admittedly) but it is beyond belief. Getting back on topic, I think Obama is increasingly looking like Dean without the scream.
Not that I’ve ever done betting or anything, but I can’t help noticing that those odds for the Republican candidate don’t even add up to 1, let alone the usual 1.08 ish. Perhaps I ought to bet on all of them now and make a profit…
McCain 10/11 = 52.4%
Romney 7/2 = 22.2%
Giuliani 9/2 = 18.2%
Huckabee 20/1 = 4.7%
Paul 66/1 = 1.5%
TOTAL = 99.0%
… but on second thoughts, if I did that they might go and select someone else just to annoy me.
8 I was attempting to be ironic, James old chap. You’re not American are you
Post 6 is a blatant case of “Coventryism”. The poster should be sent to …. well somewhere anyway. Spoken as a Coventry kid….
How depressing for Edwards to be at 150-1, when Gore (who isn’t even running!) is at 66-1!
It’s not winning each primary that matters, its that winning gives candidates the opportunity to make a well publicised speech in an atmosphere of success. After the tumultuous campaign recently, Obama, who is a great speech maker, can do a momentous one about the people of South Carolina rewarding truth over misprepresentation etc. I expect this will move the markets.
10 - Nope Home Counties born and bred
11 Often wondered how Coventry could be the Specials’ “Ghost Town” with all the people that get sent there….
14, totally off-topic, but why are the Home Counties thus named?
10. I’ve never understood this myth that Americans don’t do irony! Have you ever watched comedy on US TV? It’s knee deep in the stuff!
The Republican race will all be bust wide open again when Rudi wins Florida.
After all, as The Clash sang, “Rudi can’t fail…”
The Republican race will all be bust wide open again when Rudi wins Florida.
After all, as The Clash sang, “Rudi can’t fail…”
16 - To do with the circuit courts I believe, and the closest circuits being close to Home i.e London where the central court was.
16. It’s the “home circuit” of the counties around London, the “home” of English law.
Ben Brogan:
‘(Cameron) describes the PM as “that strange man in Downing Street”, the implication being that Mr Brown is a dysfunctional oddball. As I say, it is a charge the Tories have been making for some time, but to hear it from the Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition jars somehow.’
You tories just can’t help yourselves, can you?
20, oh right. Thanks for answering:)
17 I was being ironic about the stereotype that Americans don’t understand irony
16 “why are the Home Counties thus named?”
Because to the people who live there, everywhere else is a fetid swamp where you wouldn’t feel safe buying a kebab without an armed guard - still less consider making your “home” there. Uuuugh - horrid notion.
To everyone outside, it’s occupants are so terminally dull they might as well be in a Home….. Perhaps Hospice Counties might be a better term?
24, of course they understand it. It’s like goldy, and bronzey, only it’s made of iron.
Also, usage of the word ‘ironical’ should be punishable by being shot into space from a giant artillery gun.
And, to be mildly serious, FTSE’s roughly 100 down.
22 It’s all a matter of opinion but most of the people I know think there’s summat strange about Brown.
There’s an old northern tale of two old fellahs talking. One sez to t’other:
“All the worlds queer except thee and me and even thee’s a little bit queer.”
27 They were from Epsom then?
22. If its OK for Tony Blair to brief off the record that Brown has psycholgical problems, I don;t see the problem with Cameron saying it.
24. Like Alanis Morissette, who can sing a whole song about being “Ironic” without successfully identifying a single case of irony?
30 - Although she is Canadian so go figure!
27. Makes trainspotters, stamp collectors, goths, Morris Dancers Star Wars fans appear to be rational relaxed, human beings. How does he relax or take time off?
The digging or clawing motions at the despatch box seem to be somewhat unsettling. But I still can’t see Brown posting breakfast scenes from No 10 on YouTube.
27. It’s a bit ‘ironical’ that the nasty party’s image has been improved by possibly their nastiest leader yet.
Every so often the mask slips and the Bullingdon gurner is revealed for what he is.
I have just been playing around with the Telegraph General Election Map, kindly pointed out by Ted at the end of the last thread. It is rubbish. Completely useless. It gives amateur psephology a bad name.
33 - yawn
30 - but isn’t that ironic, don’t you think? A little too ironic?
31, however, some American society or other apologised for her lack of irony (or something like that) which is in itself ironic as, as has been said, she’s not American.
The psychological state of a leader is actually a fair area for debate. After all, you don’t want a bipolar lunatic running things, do you? (Not saying Brown’s bipolar).
And mocking opposite numbers is nothing new. Some Labour person compared The Hague to a foetus, and Churchill regularly mocked Attlee, and Thatcher likewise Kinnock.
1. Which medication are you on ?
What will Gord do now ???
The US economy is set for a long recession, a panel of economists at the World Economic Forum has warned.
The US mortgage crisis will spread to consumer and company loans, and push up defaults sharply, warned New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.
A year ago, Mr Roubini had been one of the few economists to predict correctly a slump in the US housing market and subsequent crunch in credit markets.
China and Europe will be hit, though India less so, the panel forecast.
36. That was the point I was making. And you didn’t recognise it. How ironic.
30. I can’t resist …
Blackadder: Do you know what irony is, Baldrick?
Baldrick: It’s like bronzy and goldy, only harder.
39 - Did you not realise I was quoting the lyrics directly? How ironic.
39 - Anyway, if anyone should understand irony, it’s you, Socrates.
1 Gabble must have been of for some re-education. I know this is off thread , but on the previous thread Gabble suggested that David Cameron was a nasty piece of work and that it would prove his undoing. Firstly I don’t agree per se, secondly, we have oddles of information about Brown’s charachter, It hardly poses him in a good light…….
43 - What is the UK equivalent of a Siberian Gulag?
41. Actually I did, but didn’t want to admit to it for fear of looking stupid. And by doing so I exposed myself to looking stupid. How ir… ok, ok I’ll stop now.
42. Me? I don’t understand. Please explain.
44 - Lancashire hotpot?
44 10 Downing Street?
44 - Canvey Island.
44 “What is the UK equivalent of a Siberian Gulag?”
Withernsea, E Yorkshire.
44. Hoddesdon?
45 - from Wikipedia:
44 - the magic roundabout, Hemel Hempstead
52 - nonsense, it’s a fantastically efficient way of moving traffic. Just so long as you know how to use it…….
51. How would that work exactly?
“Every so often the mask slips and the Bullingdon gurner is revealed for what he is”
Even I couldn’t stifle a titter! Own up Tories the ‘Bullingdon gurner’ is QUITE funny!.
Vox Pop. On the last thread the word ‘lying’ was not said by Dave which was why I put it in brackets but was implcit in the rest of the article.
44. Cumbernauld on s wet day.
44. Bootle Conservative Association
Interesting speculation on the Telegraph blog of Petraeus riding into a brokered Republican convention on his warhorse. Hmm.
33 You don’t do irony do you gabble? I guess that Gordon wouldn’t approve.
54 - Enough already, Socrates
55 So you lied then Roger. Fair play to you for admitting it.
It’s more than your Glorious Leader would do.
44 Ikea, Lakeside.
33 & 55 - No matter what your political persuasions, its still funny (especially the headline)
http://tinyurl.com/2oywzr
There is something of the Tony Hadley about him circa ‘True’ 1983.
44. Anywhere outside Croydon
61. I didn’t lie or even intend to deceive. I quoted accurately from the Times article but in order to give his meaning in context I added a word by means of explanation. By putting it in brackets I’d thought that was obvious. Infact to most others I think it was.
63. I love how that picture is no longer allowed to be reproduced…
…and that nice freedom loving Dave has nothing to do with it.
At 9/2Guiliani is worth a punt.I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Clinton v Guiliani Presidential.
RogerH
OT. Interesting that when calculating the numbers attending the march for the first time ever the figures given by the police are far higher than estimates!
“SeanT: if we call you a p1ssed up philandering libertine whose literary efforts led to a well deserved “bad sex award” to a first time writer, all it means is that we have read your books.
Hypocritical? Sure, and so are you, but I’m b%**gered if I’ll be called a scumbag by the guy who writes your prose. You have no evidence of scumbaggery, and the fact you think you do makes you at least as much of a hypocrite as the rest of us, so ultimately, as a comparative, your insult is meaningless.
Enjoy Bangkok…
by Cicero January 23rd, 2008 at 12:59 pm”
I take it by this, Cicero, that you admit - as any leftie of intelligence must surely admit - that you and your kind ARE hypocritical scumbags?
I mean, your post seems to say “Yes, Lib Dems and Labourites are hypocritical scumbags, but I just object to being called that, by a w*nker like you”.
If I have read you right, I think we are in agreement! I am, as you say, a p1ssed up philandering libertine - indeed I have never denied it; but for years I have been asking Labourites and Lib Dems to admit they are indeed what everyone takes them for: hypocritical scum.
But now you have confessed! Hooray for pb.com! An argument settled.
xx
RogerH. A warning. Giuliani V Clinton is my tip with Clinton winning. Unfortunately I’m rarely correct though this was told to me by a colleague in New York who as recently as last week-end assured me that this would be how it would resolve.
This looks very interesting - the Daily Telegraph online interactive map to the next UK general election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/election-map/nosplit/election-map.xml
67 I’ve often thought that a Clinton v Giuliani contest would be to New York centric and don;t think it will happen. I’ve still got money on Clinton v Romney but each time I see him on TV, I wish I’d put money down on McCain.
re 71. I’ve now put in on our permanent links
65 Roger, You posted a text and added the words “by lying” in order to deliberately misrepresent what Cameron had said. The fact you added brackets doesn’t detract from the fact that you distorted what he said ie you lied.
Your attempted smear reflects badly on you and just goes to demonstrate how rattled you Labour boys really are.
I have noticed that today there has been a bit of a fightback from the left on this website.Its a bit like the Battle of the Bulge.
A concerted concentrated attack led by Herr Balls who believes the Labour Reich should last for a 100 years and everybody else must be suppressed.
Will it work or just like at Bastogne will it be stopped in its tracks?
52. The designer of the magic roundabout in Hemel Hempstead has been commissioned to redesign a big junction in Northampton. It was reported in the local press today that the result will include 45 sets of traffic lights…
52. The designer of the magic roundabout in Hemel Hempstead has been commissioned to redesign a big junction in Northampton. It was reported in the local press today that the result will include 45 sets of traffic lights…
71,73 - Whilst a fun pointer to seats… surely the swingometer calculations are rubbish… Vaguely sensible 10% swing Labour to Tory to give Lab: 25%, Tory: 42%, Lib 22% (Clearly on the high side for tory’s, and Libs no change, but not that far off a possibility). Result: A doubling of Lib Dem seats to 122
O/T If the EU is not socialist can someone tell us why are the left so pro EU Treaty and the right eurosceptic? Surely left wingers will want union with a left wing state and right wingers will want no such union? Europe is socialist that’s why Labour and Lib Dems are so pro EU Treaty.
Voxpop: Can I refer you to my post on the previous thread which I have reproduced below. Bear in mind I posted that before your spat with Roger on this thread.
——————————————–
I don’t think you can criticize Roger for smearing - ‘Pretending to have Christian beliefs’ is lying.
However I don’t think you can also criticized Cameron for what he said either (other than maybe being naive - but honest). Most parents will play the system to get their children into the best schools and who can blame them. The problem is the system.
Whereas in the past wealth was the deciding factor it is now biased towards those children whose parents have the aptitude to play the system.
What ARE we to make of Roger? An ex-advertising executive of senior years, who can write, in post 55, apparently in possession of all his faculties, the line:
“Even I couldn’t stifle a titter!”
Even I couldn’t stifle a titter?
EVEN I COULDN’T STIFLE A TITTER???
Shall we deconstruct this sentence?
“Even I
[a senior Ogilvy & Ogilvy executive, personally responsible for the brilliant Kit-e-Kat commercials, aired on Tyne Tees Television circa 1975]
couldn’t stifle
[i.e. I am bravely trying to repress my natural bonhomie and likeabilty]
a titter?
[I have used this last word, in the hope that it makes me seem vaguely humorous, though in fact it makes me seem deeply tragic]
We await further exegesis.
65.74. If the words “(by lying)” were added, and were not part of the original quote, then you should have put them ouside the quotation marks, like this:
“Bla bla bla …” (by lying) “… bla bla bla.”
or used square brackets, like this:
“Bla bla bla [by lying] bla bla bla.”
but the fact that you wrote
Bla bla bla (by lying) bla bla bla.”
means that it was (at best) misleading.
79. The EU is not socialist.
To a large extent, wealth is still an important factor in selection.
It should be relatively easy to work out which parents are lying. Ask them to explain transubstantiation, or antinomianism at the interview?
70. A New Yorker said the presidential race will come down to the New Yorker Democrat vs the New Yorker Republican, as they are clearly more able than the candidates from the rest of the country! Anyone else think we should take this tip with a grain of salt?
80 kjh Fair point. I’ll leave Roger alone
Yes, it’s a great shame that ten years of a Labour government has left us with a rapidly diminishing number of decent schools so that concerned parents are resorting to increasingly desperate tactics in order to get their kids into one where they might learn something and where there is a decreased risk of them being attacked or led astray by the growing feral army.
Sadly, the days are long gone when millions of working class kids like me could get into a grammar school.
82. Agreed, the EU is not socialist. It is just bureaucratically regulatory and suspicious of democracy, although not to the same extent as full-blown socialism.
83 - Very few parishoners would be able to even if they were regular attendees
86. The EU needs to be more democratic if it wants to succeed. It’s funny how the EU criticised the vote rigging in Birmingham. Pot and kettle?
I’ve been playing with the telegraph thing and its a bit crap. Even with the LD’s on 55% ( The though frightens even me) we still end up as the third commons party and no matter what I type in I can’t seem to win my constituiency. Can I not even dream?
85. The problem with grammar schools is that middle class people have learnt to work that system too. Have your kids privately tutored to the exam for the 11+ and hey presto, they’re in.
This is one issue on which David Cameron is spot on: have increased selection and tracking WITHIN schools, where they can be moved up and down between tracks whenever is needed, rather than just at age 11.
82 - I would tend to use square brackets but putting it outside of the quotation marks is even better. Using round brackets is a no no, unless you are trying to obfuscate.
81 Are you pis**ed or just an anti eu nutter on need of therapy.
90, the system for entering grammar schools used to be fairer. However, Labour abolished the Assisted Places scheme, which was basically a bursary from the government for the less well off. It’s a shocking thing from a party that was, once, socialist and hit the poorest whilst leaving the wealthy to keep on enjoying grammar schools.
Declaration of interest: I went to a grammar school, but my parents could only afford it because I got a bursary from the examination result, and another from an interview with the headmaster.
90 That’s right but one of the reasons for that is that there are very few grammar schools left so competition to get in is intense. Years ago there were hundreds more grammar schools so even untutored working class oiks like me could get a place without too much difficulty.
88. I find it incredible how people who claim to be liberals wish to hand over more power to the bloc before there has been expanded democracy. You could perhaps justify transferring powers to the EU which europhiles would like to exist, but not to the EU that actually is. As it stands, transferral of sovereignty is a reduction in democracy for the people of Britain, Ireland, Sweden etc (although probably an increase in democracy for places like Italy).
93 - Err that was for independents, not grammars. Are you sure your parents weren’t having you in and claiming they were paying for something that was free?
“having you *on*” rather.
90. Yep, agreed - education policy is a doddle. Unlike health, which can never be solved (people always get sick and die) we have the money to make our schools work. You just need the will.
First, institute vigorous but flexible streaming within comprehensives. Then take away the public schools’ charitable status unless they really help poor kids. Third, get a proper exam system with an option to be graded just on exams (to help boys).
Fourthly, pay teachers more, and make sure some of them are men, and ensure they are not all leftwing idiots. Fifth, teach kids to admire British values, know British history, and wear proper uniforms. Maybe with boaters and pleated plaid skirts for girls*.
*optional
Bish bosh, job done. G’night peebles.
95 I don’t find it so odd. There are people who consider themselves liberals (not all liberals are like this, I must add) who view the people as deeply reactionary, and not to be trusted.
Giuliani’s strategy has necessitated a relatively slow start to the campaign, as a lack of profile in the early states would have a short-term effect on his national polling numbers, but those who write him off do so at their own peril. Florida is running neck and neck between McCain and Rudy, while Giuliani must be sure of New Jersey. Although McCain looks ahead in a close race in California, if Giuliani can win two out of these three significant states he’ll be up and running.
96, well my school had the word ‘grammar’ in its name and charged a fee per term, and I knew some people who went there and took advantage of the assisted places scheme.
Perhaps the scheme covered independents and grammars?
Also, only just thought of this, can’t grammar schools be independent?
101 - Nope, just independents, although a fair number of schools with grammar in their name are fee paying independents in actuality (the Royal Grammar School in Guildford for example - not the school I teach at by the way).
True grammars are free and attract no financial assistance.
re 88 that was the Council of Europe which did the criticizing, not the EU - an entirely different beast.
103, oh right.
My point still stands then, although on that technicality I was wrong.
*jingles his bells in an effort to cheer himself up*
100 Slow, JohnF? It’s funereal.
In New Jersey, he is now 3 points behind McCain, having been 42 ahead (sic) at the end of September.
In California, he is now 8 behind, where he was 21 ahead in October.
98. I don’t actually see why we can’t teach a narrative of the whole history of civilisation over a period of nine years. Britain is just one part of the world, and our history is impossible to understand with knowledge of the rest. I don’t think teaching admiration is needed, give both sides of any big debate in the historian community and let kids make up their own mind. The rest of your post seems like a very sound assessment though.
I never understood why I had to jump from Ancient Egypt one term to Tudor England the next and back to the Norman invasion the year after that. It’s like they are trying to confuse kids about history.
102 - Grammars and Secondary Moderns are two sides of the same coin, both state schools but separated by selection by ability. Independents can be called grammar but that is a historic appellation as the initial idea of them was to teach Latin grammar.
106 - His direction of travel is not good is it!
108, I shall consider myself informed:p
*sighs* on an unrelated note the selection of GCSEs meant I couldn’t choose Latin because I really liked German, and yet I was forced to take French. The injustice! Me miserum!
Anyway, we ought to build more grammars and reinstate the Assisted Places scheme. And stop people having to choose zwischen Deutsch und Latin.
Re Telegraph swingometer. They’ve got the Lab-Con and Lab-LibDem swings mixed up. Someone ought to tell ‘em. For a Lab-Con swing you should select Lab-LibDem.
Apart from that, it’s quite neat, although inflexible. Based on the Rallings and Thrasher data which will be the “official” benchmark used by the media.
106. After New Hampshire, I would have thought you of all people would have stopped trusting the polls with any confidence. A win in Florida (certainly possible) and Giuliani could well be the man the establishment turns to over McCain - they don’t care about abortion or gays, as long as they have a President who cuts taxes and expands the military.
110. I wasn’t allowed to do Physics, Chemistry and History for A Level, which really annoyed me. My school didn’t seem to think people would be good at both sciences and essay subjects. Ended up doing all four sciences.
113, sorry to keep going off-topic, but four sciences? Physics, chemistry and biology…what’s the fourth?
“First, institute vigorous but flexible streaming within comprehensives”
Good idea, I benefitted from this myself.
“Then take away the public schools’ charitable status unless they really help poor kids.”
You may not expect me to but I agree with this too.
“Third, get a proper exam system with an option to be graded just on exams (to help boys). ”
Yup (this is getting boring, sorry), although my examinations are often practical in nature they are pretty much un-cheatable because parents or others can’t help teh students to perform, I can’t say the same of all subjects. The little bit of coursework I have to do (10% each course) is pointless and open to abuse, get rid.
“Fourthly, pay teachers more, and make sure some of them are men,”
How could I disagree.
“and ensure they are not all leftwing idiots.”
Well, err, no comment (I think).
“Fifth, teach kids to admire British values, know British history,”
Aha, a difference, yes the history is important but the idea of teaching some nebulous set of values isn’t. Values aren’t taught they are taken on and it is the way a school is run that instils such values. As such it should emanate from management (and that is often not the case).
“and wear proper uniforms. Maybe with boaters and pleated plaid skirts for girls*.
*optional”
Have you been watching St Trinian’s again?
102. Not all direct grant grammar schools (which charged fees) opted out to stay independent in the mid 1970s, a number remained in the state system.
However, there were grammar schools run by the LEAs (which did not charge fees), which still remain in the state system. There are 164 grammar schools in the secondary sector in parts of Gloucs, Kent, Bucks, N. Yorks, Calderdale, Berks, Lincs, Lancs, Devon, Warwicks, Enfield, Redbridge, Bexley, Essex for example.
It isn’t easy to distinguish between some of the private schools and the state funded grammars. The Royal Grammar School in Worcester is a fee paying school likewise RGS in Guilford, and Newcastle whilst the RGS in High Wycombe, Lancaster and Colchester are parts of the state funded system.
Pate’s Gramar School in Cheltenham is in the state system whilst Kingston Grammar School is a private fee paying school.
115, school uniforms are a must. Even as a 15 year old I appreciated them:p
106 Correction - McCain is only 4 points ahead in California in the latest poll, but as James Burdett points out, the direction of travel isn’t quite right.
Am I the only person who thought I got a Good education at my Comp? We had streaming (A,B,C ) based not on an 11 plus but a more rounded assessment from primary teachers and people were moved up and down every year. We had setting for the big stuff (maths,english and science) we had informal links with two neighbouring polys which encouraged a larger number of people to go than would otherwise have done.
This was all 20 years ago yet this sort of stuff seems radical today. Uniform was enforced, the embeded 6th form was seen and promoted as a positive aspirational thing but we had huge sports fields and on site technical workshops. Non academic sorts were allowed to specialise there with a “parity of esteem culture”.
I don’t have kids and all i read about britsih education makes me thing its third world. Is it really that bad?
114. I believe maths counts
Although, the fourth science could also have been geology!
114 - Maths is sometimes bracketed as a science, same with psychology (yes, I know, I know). Subsciences such as Astronomy ot Geloogy are sometimes offered as discreet subjects.
112 You’re not going to let me live that down, are you Socrates.
I always have been wary and am more so now, but you cannot disregard them completely and taken with other indications - like results to date, for example - it ain’t looking good for Guiliani.
117 - Indeed school uniforms are a must, my school even had a no hair gel policy which caused a great amount of consternation when the deputy head came round to anyone with gel and gave them a nit comb to get rid of it. Ah happy days!!
120, maths now is actually the worst subject. Why? Because it’s massively variable.
You do 6 modules (or I did anyway) that can be statistics (easy), pure (quite tough) mechanics (very physics-like) and other…decision I think, which is easiest of all.
My maths A-level is just 1 unit stats, 2 mechanics and 3 pure. Another could be just stats and decision, but the work would be much easier. Plus the jump from GCSE to A-level (especially for mechanics and pure) is huge.
We learnt surds[sp] at A-level. The Chinese learn them in primary school.
121. Astronomy can be a subscience of physics, but what is geology a smaller part of?
119. As probably the only one here young enough to have actually been in a comp under the current government. My education was pretty much the same as you described. Very satisfied with the whole thing.
Geloogy = Geology. Geloogy sounds sort of fun though.
124. Indeed, I averaged 90% in my first four modules and then a C and an E in the last two modules. I was ill a lot at Sixth Form and learnt most of my maths A Level in the last couple of months on my own. Pure 3 was especially tricky to learn from a text book. We did do surds though.
It was particularly annoying then, when, the year after mine, they removed the stuff we covered in Pure 3, and spread the stuff from Pure 1 & 2 over three modules.
126 - Not my area but it’s an earth science mixing elements of chemistry, biology and physics with geography I think. Not so much a smaller part but using parts of each. Astronomy can also cover areas of chemistry and (conceivably) biology as well as physics.
Pretty dire thread today for the first 75 or so posts. Changing to subject to political betting, can anyone explain the option to lay Ron Paul at 0.0 on Cantor Spreadfair? If you take it up, either you lose money or you get your stake back, right? Regardless of the fact that Paul is obviously not gonig to win, why is this even a possible bet?
That Obama poll lead in SC is pretty startling - if it actually happens I think it WILL change the momentum. But ‘it’s only one poll’ is even better advice in the US than here as their samples tend to be so small.
SeanT. I have never been an account exec for Ogilvy and Mather. I direct TV commercials and have shot several for Ogilvy and Mather though not for Kit-y-cat which I believe is handled by Bates.
However as I’ve obviously missed the window of opportunity to reply to you sober I wont bother to continue other than to say that perhaps one of the reasons I find you so much less entertaining than others on this site is because I find your writing to be generally less amusing succinct or entertaining than the average junior copywriter at any decent agency.
Gosh this is scary. I’ve got a degree in Maths and I’m thinking what the hell are surds! Still it was a very very very long time ago.
I’ve got very strong views on Secondary Moderns, Grammars, Comprehensives and Indies through bitter experience, but I’m not going to bore everyone as it will go into pages and to be honest (to your relief) I haven’t the time. In addition I have become a complete hypocrite on the matter when it comes to the education of my own children (one of whom is showing a mathematical aptitude that is really going to embarrass me) so I’m on very dodgy ground.
131 - Roger, if you wanted a copy of the aforementioned film (and the yet to be released Depp one) I’ll be at the get together on Friday.
133.Paul. Thanks for the offer and it’ll be good to see you there. I can download it but I’d much prefer to see it at the cinema if I can. If you’ve got it on DVD though I’d much appreciate it as a back-up.
Anyway if you’re there we can compare notes on likely winners and perhaps put up some recommendations on here! I’m reasonably confident about four categories-certain on two- and if I can just see three more films I should be OK for seven.
Grammars: Not all Royal GS are independent - Colchester is an exception.
As a state grammar pupil, I always used to resent places that charged fees and called themselves grammar schools. However, since I was educated in the 1980s, my school did not really teach grammar anyway.
Grammar school goes back to the days when Latin grammar was the basis of education. It’s a rather daft term, a bit like “public school.”
Oh… and maths is not a science. Despite having a maths degree, I never really understood the sciences at school. Maths is more of an art, in that the answer does not really matter, it’s how you argued it that counts.
135 - Indeed… the old quote ‘Maths is the language of science’ (ergo still a language and hence an Art) comes to mind…
Be wary of the poll showing Obana 19 percent ahead.
Obabma hasnt surged, Edwards is steady its Clinton’s vote that has disappeared to create the margin. That suggests she has a soft element that is in the dont knows. The gap could easily be a toughunder 10%.
With Edwards steady, however, my belief that she could get within 5% of Obama has faded. It needs Edwards to go down badly.
Don;t see any value in the market myself but those who took that 2/7 are possibly laughing now.
With Big Fred out, where do people think his support will go?
touch under 10%…
134 - Ratatouille really has no competition. I’m not too hot on the technical categories and have yet to see even more of the films than you though. I just pick on the ones I know and have liked, I can’t get hold of ‘There Will Be Blood’ or the Coen Brothers film which puts me at a bit of a disadvantage.
On the screeners issue, it’s crazy in this day and age that one area of the world gets to see films months before another.
83 Missed your post Sean. Yes I agree wealth is still a major factor eg being able to buy houses in the catchment area which go at a premium.
Did you hear the recent radio 4 series on the introduction of the comprehensives. It was interesting how people in the catchment area of good comprehensives don’t want them changed back to grammars and risk their children having to go to another school if they fail the 11 plus, whereas parents in the catchment area of grammars also don’t want to change them.
By the way your test has me beaten!
I went to a Sec Mod and did ” O ‘ levels and then moved to a Grammar school to do ‘A’ levels ( a scheme introduced by the Tory council) and as a result had an excellent education in all senses of the word.
The secondary modern was the better school without doubt as many of the staff and students at the Grammar were so ‘up themselves’ that they thought no-one from any other background was any good at all. the secondary modern set out to encourage everyone to do what they could do best and never looked down on the woodwork class or up to the academic stream.
I wanted to do maths, English and history at ‘A’ level but this was seen as extreme oddity so ended up with maths, history and politics. The university selection boards saw this as very strange indeed and made life difficult - not helped by the Deputy Head telling them that they should not accept a Sec Mod boy as I would lower the tone.
And he may have been right, but Lucky Jim’s place was more enlightened and welcomed me with open arms. And what a pleasure it was to spend three years there. The University of London for post graduate stuff was appalling by comparison.
The news this evening showing all Cameron’s soundbites. From the clips on TV tonight it looks as though Cameron wiped the floor with Brown.
GETTING BACK TO US PRESIDENTIAL
Giuliani is in process of LOSING Florida and not but a small margin either. Is out of money and staff is working without pay (am sure last does NOT include Rudy’s personal “brain trust”). He’s this week’s Fred Thompson, just waiting for good voters of FL to put him out of his misery.
Huckabee is trying to sidestep FL the way that Mitt & now Hillary sidestepped SC. Why? Because he lacks the money to compete in Sunshine State’s many (and pricey) media markets.
McCain is also bit strapped for cash. BUT no such worries for Romney.
130 “Pretty dire thread today for the first 75 or so posts.”
Yes, gabble and the other Brownite astroturfing trolls have a lot to answer for!
139. The new Coen Brother’s is magnificent, while there will be blood has been called “the new citizen kane”
130 - Nick Palmer
Your Ron Paul question is one I’ve asked myself about Paddy Power quoting Al Gore at 500/1 and George Bush at 1000/1 to be the first President of the European Council. Le Pen was a lot tighter than that to replace Chirac in 2007. It’s a shame these can’t be laid.
141 Witan, My background is similar. I went to a Secondary Modern which I enjoyed and was on course for my 1 CSE in woodwork in the 3rd stream of 5 having comprehensively failed my 11 plus. Then something happened all of a sudden I’m top of the school, bucket load of top grade O Levels (10 I think). off to the local grammar for A levels. Top group in school and off to Uni to do Maths.
Moral of story - Don’t select at 11. I didn’t get a chance at any languages or literature which I still regret to this day and witnessed boys at the grammar who may have excelled in the ‘technical’ subjects but didn’t get a chance.
So I’m pro comprehensives with streaming. But this business of specialist schools is stupid if (as is the case) the catchment means you can’t get into them. For example in my area we have schools which specialise in Languages, Sport and Technology. However the only one you can get into if you live in my street is the Technology school so useless if you want to specialize in languages. Barking mad. In many rural areas you will get a choice of, er ‘1′. When you ask heads why they went for the speciality status the reply is usually ‘We don’t believe in it, but we get the money’.
16
I don’t know if anyone answered the question, but the Home counties are those counties that border London, London being, the ‘Home’ of the country: bet you’ll all agree with that!
“…..the secondary modern set out to encourage everyone to do what they could do best and never looked down on the woodwork class or up to the academic stream”.
At Millfield there was once a school report which became a cause celebre from the woodwork master “James has taken all term to produce a good stool”
New Insider Advantage poll.
McCain 18
Romney 24
Guiliani 19
Huckabee 12
Paul 7
I make that Romney +4, McCain and Guiliani -2 compared with previous IA poll.
150 Link is :-
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html
kjh my conclusion has been that small secondary moderns were very effective and large comprehensives ( in which I briefly worked) tend to have a very poor focus on the individual who is often a number on a register.
Perhaps its size that matters more than anything else. My secondary modern was a comprehensive in most respects, with a full range of subjects including one foreign language.
As Latin was not on the menu my choice of universities was restricted as the grammar school was very rigid in sixth formers could not join lower classes for remedial tuition.
That probably says it all.
149. Having refused to teach me French (or any language) by not putting it on the curriculum I’m not sure how that encouraged me!
Loved the joke.
139. The Coen Brothers film is on everywhere. It’s good but not in my opinion a classic. If it had been nominated I would put Jesse James ahead of it. As it wasn’t ‘No Country for Old Men’ is a good bet. ‘Michael Clayton’ isn’t even average and ‘Atonement’ just isn’t quite up to it. And ‘Juno’ and ‘Let there be Blood’ I’ve yet to see ‘cos they aren’t here yet!!
154. I agree, Jesse James was better, if a little indulgent. However, it’s great to see the resurgence of the western, maybe the beginning of the Neo-western genre.
Oops!
http://www.thisisleicestershire.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=132437&command=newPage
Attempt 2!
http://www.thisisleicestershire.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=132943&command=displayContent&sourceNode=132546&contentPK=19631744&folderPk=77456&pNodeId=132437
155. G. I didn’t mind the indulgence in Jesse James because the whole film was really a character study rather than a simple adventure. I’m sure I haven’t seen a better photographed film for years and if Roger Deakins (from Torquay!) doesn’t win best DOP then I’m a Tory.
Daily Telegraph Swingometer
Isn’t the whole notion of a national swing very mid-20th century?
Would think that REGIONAL swingometers make more sense IF you get the regions right.
Using DT swingometer and punching in maximum allowable swings (20% either way) here is result
Swing of 20% to Labour yields just 4 Conservatives in House of Commons:
-Beckenham
-Folkestone and Hythe
-Mole Valley
-Surrey East
Swing of 20% to Conservatives yields 68 seats to Labour, including only 4 English seats south of the Wash:
-Birmingham Ladywood
-Camberwell and Peckham
-Lewisham Deptford
-Tottenham
154 - I’m at a disadvantage in that I can’t stand cinema audiences (my first love of theatre is, thankfully, still free of the appalling behaviour I’ve encountered in cinemas). As such I will do anything to see the films in my own home first.
Incidentally does anyone know who the blond haired man sitting on Tony Blair’s right is on the previous thread (next to Blunkett)?
for those of you old enough to remember crispian st peters and like me holding a long position in “the black pied piper” senator Obama,take heart. the song,as part of an anthology of c st p,is available from http://www.play.com
Yes, it is pretty outdated, but has survived partly because it still contains enough of a workable model to give a reasonable approximation of what might happen, partly because no-ones come up with a provably better model yet, and partly because of journalistic inertia.
However, the main problems with it are more than just regional variances and include:
- The 2-party assumption means there’s a failure to deal with national minor parties adequately (including the Lib Dems), especially when they either hold seats or are within striking range.
- Wales and Scotland should be treated differently because of the concentration of SNP and PC voters there, which will often lead to different swings between the three main national parties as well.
- Incumbency has probably become a more important factor in recent years but UNS gives no credit for it.
- Tactical voting against parties has become more frequent, a factor of the 2-party system breaking down and voter identification with particular parties lessening, and this is difficult to model in.
- Parties have got better at targetting campaigns on the marginals. 1997 and 2001 both saw bigger swings to Labour in the marginals than elsewhere (also a result of some of the other developments mentioned above).
- 2001 and 2005 saw a marked decline in the propensity of Labour voters to turn out - a factor in pushing the Tory lead required to give parity in MPs up, as many of these abstaining Labour voters are in safe seats. Any change in that behaviour from one election to the next affects the baseline on which any swing should be calculated if aiming at predicting gains and losses.
There are almost certainly other drawbacks as well, but that’s just a few off the top of my head.
163 is in reply to SSI at 159, in case that’s not obvious!
131 - for all seanT’s failings, he does write quite amusingly…
Roger says: “perhaps one of the reasons I find you so much less entertaining than others on this site is because… ”
This is ambiguous; does he find seanT less amusing than others find him, or does he find others more amusing than seanT?
PS: astounded nobody has tried to spell the word “grammar” as “grammer” today. Where are all the Tory trolls?
159. Yes, but it can be shown…
regional swings largely cancel out in terms of seat outcomes, since there are some marginal seats in every region and regional divergence is not large enough to significantly skew the overall outcome.
It’s also hardly worth the effort to create a regional swingometer, since regional polls are usually too small to be statistically useful, and it’s quite a hassle to ensure they all add up correctly to the projected national vote share.
Regional effects will almost certainly not produce a net difference from uniform swing greater than 5 seats for Lab and Con, and probably fewer.
165. “where are all the Tory trolls?”
If you’re missing them, I could always mention the EU treaty…
161. Bryan Davies. Unusual MP, in that he made a return to the House after a 13 year absence, only to have his seat abolished before the 1997 election…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Davies
164 Very good. If you’re trying to translate poll results into election results, UNS is a good starting point, but most certainly not a good end point.
I’ve been reading into 1920’s election results, and using UNS to try and predict those would have given you a lot of “wrong” results. The most startling figure, to me, is that t