How big a blow is this to Gordon?
January 24th, 2008Within the past few minutes we have had the news that Peter Hain has resigned. The move follows an announcement by the Electoral Commission announced that it had referred the issue of undeclared donations to his deputy leadership campaign to the police.
The question now is what will be the political impact?
This had also been a betting market - at one stage you could have got 7-1 that he would be out this month.
Mike Smithson
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Its seepage stuff about the government not an individal hammer blow.
Get in!
If you will all excuse me, I am off to withdraw from WillHill…
Brown backed him up to the hilt. Got to reflect on him and his judgement.
Sad to hear it - to think it’s only a few weeks since he was being lionised by all sides in the Commons for getting the pension compensation deal through.
168: seanT - thanks. I don’t think I do criticise people for being spinmerchants, you know - correct me if I’m wrong, but I can’t remember ever doing so. I criticise them for being pointlessly abusive, or for rants without arguments.
As for my posts, if I weren’t an MP I’d post here and on other blogs more, not less - it’s lack of time that gets in the way because I do need to give my job priority. I’ve been a Labour Party activist for 40 years, and I think it’s a noble cause despite the mistakes that every movement makes at times. I don’t do it for the money - I was paid a lot more for working in a non-political job than I am now.
Spin? Sure. My posts do put a Labour viewpoint, rather more when there’s a lot of one-sided Tory stuff on the thread and rather less when there isn’t. I’m constrained by being aware that what I say can be quoted against me or the party, but I try to be rational and friendly unless really provoked. Ultimately all of us here have more in common with each other than with people who don’t give a toss about anything.
No big blow, but the drip, drip factor cannot be underestimated.
The obvious answer is that it piles pressure on Harman, already being investigated regarding Abrahams, and Alexander.
On the plus side the CGT u-turn won’t be top story, and there can’t be calls for Captain Orange to go because he already has.
4: Political heroes don’t get around selling themself to every shady company that needs an endorsement, nor do they use fake think thanks to disguise dodgy donations.
re 2/4 lay off it. We all make mistakes - some mistakes are criminal and ignorance is never aby excuse. Hain had hundreds of thousands to spend on advisors to keep him on the right side of the law. After all it wasn’t being spent on effective campaigning was it.?
5. Well he didnt back him to the hilt, in fact he kept it a little ambiguous round the edges.
No idea what the impact will be, but it will give the tories even more ammo to use at least.
The exchange of letters is going to be interesting!
7 - Agree entirely. In a strong government, this could be a nine days wonder.
I’m going for Yvette Cooper as a replacement.
Hain is an arrogant buffoon - I’m glad he’s out of the government.
Question: how much credit can the Blogosphere (particularly Guido) take for claiming Hain’s scalp?
12. Osborne didn’t make his clear because of the rather obscure rules, Hain didn’t declare his at all.
Gosh !! that 7/1 now looks very generous !!
Yokel right. Its not going to be one event that does for this government but the perception that it is seedy and dishonest. Which the constent stream of news is creating, just like for Major.
Seedy because having all that money and not declaring it looks bad.
Dishonest because no one believes the figures the government gives (inflation for starters)
How are Alexander and Harman going to survive now?
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21. Pottering about with a trowel - puts him on a par with Mandela in my book.
8- It also provides cover for the 42 Day Counter Terrorism Bill being published today.
‘Heros deserve respect’, you are none other than the ranting, spellcheck-impaired Wooo — formerly plague of the Guardian’s CiF site — and I claim my five pounds.
1. Brown never gave a ringing endorsement. He said Hain was doing a good job, but did not say there was no need to resign. Brown always said Hain’s future was in the hands of the two inquiries. A subtle difference — which left Brown wriggle room.
LABOUR and SLEAZE, two words now inextricably linked in the minds of the voters.
20 - Go back to school and learn firstly how to spell, and secondly how to construct a cogent argument!
Is there a market open yet on which regular PB contributor ‘Heros deserve respect’ really is?
Posters here may not be familiar with Wooo. Be advised that he’s best ignored — or banned, as CiF did.
Does Hain claim the record for earliest resignation in a calendar year?
I feel like the sun’s just gone out of my life, no, sorry, that should be sunbed.
Harriet next, what’s the betting?
33. I thought this idiot had been banned.
19-cuddles- Osborne hid behind the obscure funding rules to avoid people asking what he is personally blowing 500k a year.
Hain’s appears to be more cock up than bending rules in the Osborne sneaky, dishonest way. But Osborne comes across as a shifty, sneaky, sneak.
33 Sharon? Ozzy??
28 the difference being of course Hain broke the law and Osborne didn’t - don’t you have a literacy hour coming up or something.
27 Exactly! Brown would never give a “ringing endorsement” to anyone. There’s only one person that counts with Brown and that’s Brown. Everyone else is expendable.
42 Peter, I know you have some spare time on your hands now you’ve resigned, but surely you can find a better outlet than this?
37 etc.
Thought he was banned?
HAIN ISSA HERO! HE FOUGHT AGAINST TEH RACISMS IN SOUTH AFRIKA!!!
(Sorry, slipped into Wooo-mode there!)
Nobody will care about Osborne (personally, I feel he’s much less to blame than Hain, but that’s not the point). The donations shitstorm is damaging the government, not the Opposition. It’s Labour who created the “purer than pure” stick for themselves, and it’s them who are going to be beaten with it.
41 - Oh let it be Kelly.
40, no, Osborne did declare the funds to one of two public bodies when he should’ve declared to both.
Seems an odd to hide your funding by publicly declaring it.
“Does Hain claim the record for earliest resignation in a calendar year?”
As a cabinet minister presumably rather than general political resignation? Kennedy resigned as Lib Dem leader on 7th January 2005. Mandelson went the second time on 24th January 2001 coincidentally.
Whoops-a-daisy!! Bye bye Wendy Alexander? Soon to be followed by Tom McCabe and David Whitton? Charlie Gordon is already halfway out the door.
And Wendy’s wee brother Douglas will probably be out the Downing Street door not too long after, albeit for different reasons. Then just Alistair Darling, Des Browne, David Cairns and Jim Murphy to go, and soon there will only be one Scot left in the UK government: the sullen dour one himself.
There are not likely to be (m)any Scots in a Cameron cabinet either. And Kennedy and Campbell are fast fading memories. Looks like “the Scottish mafia” will have had its tea then? England might actually get its own government back now, de facto if not yet de jure.
Peter Hain’s resignation has got the ball rolling…
“Heroes deserve respect”. Who on earth is this squit? Is it satire? Should I laugh?
NickP - OT - yes I understand that. As you may have seen from my later post in the last thread, I do appreciate that as a PPS you can’t say “Gordon Brown is a poohead”, cause you’d soon be out of a job.
I also take yr more narrow point that you don’t accuse people of spinning as such; however I do think your loftier remarks about creatures and astroturfers edge towards superciliousness, but hey, what do I know, I’m a “p1ssed up philandering libertine” (copyright: Cicero).
You may have noticed I have tried to be a bit nicer recently. This is partly because I realised that I was overdoing it - making aggressive remarks just to amuse myself; but it is also because the things that make me genuinely angry are less salient - e.g.. Iraq, and the whole Muslim/terrorism/immigration nexus.
These issues may recrudesce, but the fact is they have dwindled on the radar, and/or my position on them has evolved.
Indeed the only thing that still makes me angry and punchy, right now, is Europe. I’ve noticed that my posts have got more aggressive the last coupla days - and I am sure it is cause of the prominence of Europe as an issue.
The problem is, I genuinely think Labour are betraying the country, the people and British democracy, re the EU Constitution. It is hard to remain totally calm when you think that.
Anyway, enough wittering from me. This Hain thing is far more interesting. And amusing.
Sawadee.
6. From being lionised to being thrown to the lions in such a short time.
Hope the lions can digest Hain - they usually prefer raw meat to burnt and crispy.
The future wasn’t orange this time.
Another One Bites The Dust. And Another One’s Gone, And Another One’s Gone. Another One Bites The Dust…
If you create complex and labyrinthine laws and systems then what do you expect? People cock up and suddenly they are a criminal (allegedly).
The irony is that labour’s troubles over donations are of labour’s own making.
They would have been by now if it was one of the “creatures”.
As for Osbourne, the £483K was to one reporting body and not the other. Not the same as Hain declaring none of it to nobody.
Anybody want to share a bottle of bubbly with me?
Also provides cover for the Council Tax rise.
Looks like a good tactic for Brown. One resignation a week should be enough to keep the bad news away. Of course it means by about week 10 he will need a cabinet reshuffle. Dennis Skinner for Foreign Secretary?
When I grow up I want to be a “p1ssed up philandering libertine”…
Kudos to whichever admin slew the spam-beast.
7. Yes, that’s a good summary. Hain’s just not well enough known to the general public (outside of Northern Ireland, perhaps), for this to be a really damaging resignation. Besides, as it’s not on a point of principle - Cook aside, when have they been? - it won’t of itself cause too much questioning of the government’s policies or record, as it would had the resignation been on those grounds.
The problem is not so much this individual event, it’s the renewed impetus given to the narrative that Labour is at its highest levels both corrupt and incompetent. That might be a harsh assessment, but it was the narrative (combined with sexual sleaze) that did for Major’s Tories, and there that was based on probably thinner ground when judged against the totality of government activity.
Mike, is this thread up to your usual high standard or has it been hijacked by some kind of Labour spoiler programme?
Either way the Hain resignation is the last nail in the coffin of any attempt by Brown to distance his administration from the sleaze tag that had so firmly attached to Blair.
If I was a hard-working Labour activist I would be incandescent that their one opportunity to make a fresh start has been so comprehensively blown.
Its bad for politics in general that Hain has had to resign over a matter referred to the Police. Its the drip drip drip of sleaze that’s incredibly damaging for Labour
On a serious note - Hain is one of the more experienced and more effective members of the shadow cabinet in the media- there was not much depth ther before this resignation - the gruel is even thinner now.
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Brown needs to promote an MP for a Welsh seat really, as there are none in the cabinet. David Hanson maybe? He and Kim Howells are the only two MPs of minister of state rank representing Welsh seats.
Or maybe it will be Lord Kinnock, Secretary of State for Wales?
Mike’s got the big stick out. The two threads today have been sub-optimal!!
55. I’d say that was fair enough really
On its own, Hain’s resignation may well be manageable. However, the fall of institutions including Governments normally start with one brick after another being removed from the proverbial wall. Bit by bit the wall is weakened until one day it collapses unless it is repaired or shored up. Yes the workmen will be out trying to minimise the damage but if the foundations have indeed gone, then major structural work will be required to prevent its collapse.
Will one of the Tufty Club now have the bottle to come out of the bunker to expose themselves at the DWP?
Step forward Ed, Dougie, the other Ed?
Pity the previous thread was interrupted, I was rather enjoying it: an abundance of Labourites in full piety-overdrive blubbing about good manners.
It was also interesting to read Mr Nick Palmer MP at 45 sniffing that - unlike the dear old Labour Party - it was the Tory leaders doing the personal stuff. Well, at the end of this article, Anthony Howard gives Blair a ballocking for calling Hague ‘weird’ in a speech to his Conference:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/article800187.ece
Shame when we lose the moral high round.
I wonder how this will impact on the next polls, surely weekends is when fieldwork is often done for them. If this, combined with the economic issues are the things at the forefront of respondees minds then it could be pretty grim for HMG!
51-David Herdson- the main factor that is propelling Cameron to Downing Street is Brown, and a 3rd term government. Lab is in a whole that is getting deeper and deeper.
If Cameron was such a good leader who resonated with voters across the country the Tories would have huge poll leads. Even IDS would be doing well, but I would think a leader such as Davis would have greater personal appeal across the country. And I cannot remember Davis displaying poor judgment. I think the Tories missed the boat on that one in their scramble to elect a leader who looked like Tony Blair.
63, neither IDS nor Davis would have been able to turn the ship around at the Tory party conference as effectively as Cameron did.
OT- The news from France doesnt seem to be affecting the FTSE, its holding around +200 mark
11:30am: Hain to Brown: “Do you think I should go?”
Did Brown say…
a) Its up to you but if you want to stay I’ll back you
b) I think it would be for the best if you go. If you stay it could hurt us.
or c) YOU F***ING IDIOT!!! F*** OFF YOU STUPID SOUTH AFRICAN SHIT. WHY DOES THIS ALWAYS HAPPEN TO ME!!! AAAARRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!
Blow-after-blow-after-blow.
I wonder who’ll be going next.
57 so now we have to worry about sub-prime threads as well as everything else. Hain has a monstrously huge ego tied to a an unwarranted intellectual arrogance. He is a victim of his own hubris and will lead to journalists revisiting Harman, Alexander etc etc.
Hopefully Peter Watt will decide that the truth is the best defence and the culture of the senior levels of the Labour hierachy can be shown for what they are - desperate for cash and morally incontinent.
The Labour party needs to be claimed back by its members if it wishes to function properly.
The biggest problem for Brown is that this fits the narrative the Tories are constructing about him, which has now passed and been accepted into the public consciousness. IDS said that a leader had six months in which the electorate formed its opinion of his character. Thereafter, perceptions are almost impossible to shift. Brown dithered when Blair, advised by Campbell, would have pulled the plug on Hain weeks ago. Brown cannot inspire: he’s ponderous and introverted. What were strengths when he was Chancellor are now his weaknesses as leader.
65 - It isn’t even affecting the CAC which is really surprising, like I said on the previous thread, today’s trading has an air of unreality about it.
30. Does the “administrative cock-up” theory really wash?
If you can go to all the trouble to set up the ‘Progressive Policies Forum’ surely you should be able to record the donations?
The ironic (don’t start!) thing is that this Hain/sleaze business could have been avoided if Brown hadn’t forced those six saddos to humiliate themselves in that farce of a Deputy Leadership contest.
There’s further irony in the fact that Brown stitched up the top job for himself without a contest while the stooges were made to indulge in that unseemly scrap.
Lesson to be learned from this? Brown is a totally self-obsessed, egotistical maniac who would stab his own granny to get what he wants.
Not really the sort of person we want running the country, hey what?
65 The news from France would most likely cause a huge peal of laughter in London.
Hain live statement imminent….
The real problem for Labour is if this sets the hounds onto Wendy Alexander and Harriet Harman. Given the way the media works, I’d have said this was almost inevitable.
What is bad for the government is a series of awful stories for them have come along together again: the denied vote on the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty, the Northern Rock fiasco, the Home Secretary’s bizare ‘kebabgate’ utterings, economic turbulence and now a new scrutiny on donations to senior Labour figures. It has got to be a rotten set-up at the start of the local election campaigns for ‘08 (and in London at least they HAVE started).
Guido is gloating
http://www.order-order.com/2008/01/how-guido-destroyed-hains-ambitions-in.html
Wow. But is Hain just one brick in the wall where the others are about to come down.
Cameron speaking to Boulton on Sky (He’s in Davos, bet he regrets that now!)
73- Heh, is the French version of Ewan McGregor going to star in a movie about him? “Rogue Trader 2: Paris Revenge”
64- with Davis as leader the Tories wouldn’t have suffered the grammar school fiasco, the Tony Lit, and Cameron’s conservatives farce, the A list stupidity, the PR Rwanda stunts, the leaks from Ancram, the Quentin defection- there would have been no ship to turn because the Tories would have been happily sailing along.
Cameron had to turn the ship because he had nearly sunk it single handedly through poor judgment and PR shenanegans.
Now with Brown as leader all is pretty much plain sailing for the Tories. This is not down to Cameron’s abilities, rather depsite them. How much better would they be doing with Davis? I would suggest alot.
Thank you Mr Hain (and Mr William Hill). Its turning into quite a good betting year for me now, especially with Hain at 2/1 to be the next cabinet minister to go with Will hill. I’m surprised more people did not put any money on. For me it seemed like great odds. The general consensous on here seemed that the electoral commission’s investigastion would drag on too long and the issue would be swept aside. Just need a Guliani win in Florida now and i’ll be even happier!
I think you’re overestimating most of those negatives. I agree that Davis wouldn’t've made the grammar school blunder, but the loss of Quentin Davies did not exactly shatter the heart of the Conservatives.
All else you mentioned was quite insignificant really.
Davis seems a genuine sort of chap, and I admire his hardline stance against 42 days and ID cards. However, I don’t think he would have been seen as a significant change in the Tory party.
79 - This assumes that Davis would have been able to generate the same interest among the target voters that Tories wanted to reach, and that he wouldn’t have displayed flaws of his own.
Surely the real damage in all this is going to be the slow and tortuous legal wrangling and then eventual court-room dramas that will follow.
And the really problematic thing is the timing, you can’t delay the legal procedure long enough to get past the next GE deadline and there isn’t enough time to rush it through and get it over with now.
So Labour face the prospect of going into the run up of their GE campaign with a background of Old Bailey revelations every night.
MMM no wonder the spread bets have moved….
The bigger problem will come if Electoral Commission take similar line on Harriet Harman & Wendy Alexander, either through reference to police or a highly critical judgement. Abrahams donations already under police invesigation so that might well cause a ruckus.
So does Brown now take opportunity to create a new SoS for a combined Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish Office? If so who gets that nice castle in Northern Ireland?
84, heard (on Daily Politics I think) that it’s legally required for someone to hold the title Secretary for Wales, or wherever, for devolution to work. Not sure of the details.
Does Brown now take the opportunity for a serious Cabinet reshuffle?
To answer the question: ‘not much’ - unless it is the first of a wave of resignations….As Lady Bracknell might have observed; ‘To lose one minister, Mr Brown may be regarded as a misfortune, to loose two looks like carelessness…….
85 So all three jobs still exist but held by the same person - except for Woodward they are all shared jobs already.
69. Actually, I’m not sure that’s true. Blair was also quite keen to hang on to ministers, long after they had become liabilties. Sure, he acted ruthlessly in the end (cf Mandelson)- but he would cut them a lot of slack first (cf Blunkett).
The only difference is that Blair was in charge of a party that still dominated the media narrative (and the polls), so any damage he incurred, from resignations/sackings, was in the long run insignificant.
By contrast, Brown’s government is a mauled and weakening beast, and every further wound brings the end closer. Recovery is surely impossible now.
In fact Brown’s government reminds me of a zebra I saw on telly once, being pursued by African Hunting Dogs. The death was slow and terrible, with each little dog taking a tiny nip from the tongue or the ears or the tail. Eventually the zebra just gave up, rolled its eyes, and laid down of its own accord.
Heh.
86 - I doubt it after only a few months, he won’t want to risk making this look any bigger.
Like John Reid, David Davis comes across as a bit of a bastard. Now I rather like that in a politician, but I’m in a minority, and with the Tories agonising over their “nasty party” image in 2005, Cameron was the choice of change. Cameron did extremely well to get to Brown’s accession without looking as old-hat and failed as Ming Campbell was.
So far as Peter Hain is concerned, I would rate this resignation as more significant than usual in that it exposes the positions of Wendy Alexander and Harriet Harman. The impression of a Government drifting becalmed while running out of provisions is reinforced.
Worth remembering that even spending much more money than any other candidate, Hain came fifth. Fifth! He could have avoided all this trouble, kept his cabinet job and reputation by either spending a fraction of the amount, or just not standing in the first place.
Well, well. Mr “Tory Sleaze” hoist by his own petard. How fitting.
Does this establish a precedent now that if any funding/donations matter is referred to the police, that the politician in question should resign? That could have implications on both sides of the House, couldn’t it?
78 I admit to a certain amount of curiosity about the French version of Anna Friel.
http://www.motorcyclenews.com/upload/193525/images/PeterHain.jpg
“On yer bike!”
Picture of the day?
Very OT- New Bond movie name revealed today. Its called “Quantum of Solace”.
I don’t know what it means either
Let’s just hope there is no Mandelson/Blunkett recycling of this Sotter. In the words of Carly Simon (almost)
“Your…so Vain…… I bet you think this thread is about you…..”
“Whiter than white” - what a joke!
Scotland Yard - sounds serious and career ending. Shouldn’t he also resign as an M.P. as well as a cabinet minister, where’s the logic?
Wait a second, Peter Hain was born in Kenya. I knew their was a connection with the troubles going on over there.
Personally my tip is Des Browne will be moved from Defence to DWP, probably keeping Scotland, lancing the boil of having a ‘part-time defence secretary’. I would replace Browne with Douglas Alexander from int dev and Alexander with Kim Howells who I would give Wales as well as DfID.
Don’t suppose there’s anywhere I can put this bet on is there?
99= ARGHHHH THERE NOT THEIR
Paul Flynn MP now digging the same hole he did on WATO on BBC News 24 - and getting an appropriate mauling from the presenter ‘we’re besmirching the reputation of politicians’ - by exposing stuff like this - much more effective duffing up than delivered by Martha Kearney on WATO…..
57 I thought current crises even on this site had been caused by the sub prime market not the sub opitaml one
96. Won’t they have to ‘dumb down’ the title for the American market?
IIRC, they re-named ‘Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone’ for the US because the yanks didn’t know what a Philosopher was.
54.
“Hain is one of the more experienced and more effective members [b]of the shadow cabinet[/b] in the media”
‘one of the more experienced and more effective members ….in the media’
I make that ‘OOTMEAMEMITM’
- the latest euphamism for untrustworthy toe-rag?
PS when did he officially join the Tories (always knew he was one)?
Oer an hour and not a word from Roger, wonder why?
Where is Nick Palmer to tell us that Peter Hain’s “honest mistake” was just the “equivalent of someone filng their tax returns late”?
Talking of which, I’d better hurry up with my self-assessment, or they will have me in HMP Dartmoor by next weekend.
Meanwhile Brown’s incompetent puppet, Darling, adds to the confusion over CGT:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7205811.stm
OT. In the Democratic South Carolina primary Barack Obama’s lead over Hillary Clinton has shrunk by four points overall and by nine points among black voters, during the last 24 hours of polling, but he retains a sizable edge, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey shows.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1433
Hmmm. Could New Hampshire lightning strike twice? I doubt it but i won’t be backing Obama at the current prices.
98.
“sounds serious and career ending”
What I can’t understand is how his campaign manager/agent Phil Woolas MP seems to get off scot-free. It’s his name as publisher on Vain’s web-site and if this was a general election it would be him, rather than the candidate, that had to honestly publish the accounts within the given time-period or go to jail.
104. - It may be that they are basing the film on the Iain Fleming short story ‘Quantum of Solace’ - and it may indeed be the working title of the film - but these things often change before release - otherwise the heroin of Gone with the Wind might have been ‘Pansy O’Hara’. Quantum of Solace info here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Your_Eyes_Only#.27Quantum_of_Solace.27
Hain statement - dignified & simple - not channelling Gloria Gaynor like Mr Mandelson…..
104- Was the book that did it first.
And anyway, you just implied americans are stupid. Hope SeanT isnt around
111 “Hain statement - dignified & simple”
Slimy and arrogant more like!
111- Its going to follow on from Casino Royale (The 2006 film, not the David Niven one. I dont think Woody Allen is what is needed for the Bond franchise right now…)
re 95. Thank you Benny - that will certainly go into my stock
111 “the heroin of Gone with the Wind”
a seedy tale of drug dependancy in the deep South…
Out for lunch, I return to the joyous news of Hain’s exit. Money in the bank (for another lunch) and embarassment for Nick, Roger et al. to boot. How very satisfying
113 - Chris Grayling on News24 said more or less what I wrote……
Hey the ticker at the top of the site says you can get Fred Thompson at 100/1 for the Republican Candidate. Not as good as Infinty to 1 mind you.
116…..I spotted that after I posted…..hey ho…mr typo working overtime today…..
118 Chris Grayling is a lot more diplomatic than I am.
Hope Hain isnt going to his constituency by Train. The line from London to South Wales is shut due to a landslide!
104: Sorcerer’s Stone it was. And they renamed the Northern Lights the ‘golden compass’ which was w*nk.
This Hain thing doesn’t really stand out from the geenral barrage of incompetence. however some bloke called Paul Flynn was on Radio 5 live though making a fool of himself, on the one hand saying that it was terrible how these honest mistakes make good politicians look bad but really it’s nothing, but then in the same breath flinging random accusations about Cameron, the Lib Dems and someone else I forget. It was real ’shout at the radio’ stuff, what a cretin.
Danny Finkelstein thinks that Charles Clarke could make a comeback. Hmm.
re 85 Morris dancer - yes the Government of Wales Act 1998 does refer to the SoS for Wales on several occasions, but it doesn’t stop that person from holding another job as well which was latterly the case. There would be no problem with a single person being SoS for Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland as long as he was doing all three jobs separately. After all such a person would have as much work to do as your average Scottish MP these days.
124- No chance, he hates Brown doesnt he? Remember that “2020″ website launched by him shortly before Brown became PM.
113.
““Hain statement - dignified & simple””
Hain person - totally undignified and simple
124. Do I hear the sound of a barrel being scraped?
Caveman@109: Obviously we’ll have to wait and see, but looking at the other polls it looks more likely that the poll showing Obama at +19 was a rogue or at the pro-Obama end of the margin of error, rather than both polls being right and his actual support suddenly dropping in only 24 hours.
Clarke has made repeated attacks on Brown and his little group, I doubt he’ll get near the cabinet for a while if ever.
126 - My thoughts, but desperate times etc. Frankly he is taking his time about annpuncing a replacement, is he pacing around Downing St without a clue what to do?
131- I hear Neil Kinnocks son has recently become available…
Having a think tank channelling funds your direction, when it had no track record or staff was damning. Hain’s accounts with the nice round numbers would raise a few eyebrows.
It remains very disingenous to claim that only rules are being broken, when the failure to disclose accounts was a breach of the law.
Is there a book on which politican falls next?
Is there anyone to replace him that hasn’t either:
a) had a job prior and been sacked for incompetance/sleaze
B) attacked Brown and the rest of the government and now hated by too many influential people (Dobson etc)
134. Brown will be looking for a chocolate teapot type - the last thing he wants is a cabinet member with potential..
123. My 10-year-old grandson is currently reading ‘The Northern Lights’ - he says its better than the film.
109 Caveman - IIRC it was you, was it not, who suggested taking the odds that Hain would be the first Cabinet Minister to leave office and/or would leave office before 31 January.
Take a bow and a big thank you from me!
135. It is what he needs though.
There are scores of talentless sycophants languishing on the back benches - Brown is spoilt for choice.
It’s of picayune interest in the swirl of today’s events, and it is totally off-topic, but the reliably repulsive Seamus Milne, in today’s Guardian, accuses Boris Johnson of being an “enthusiastic supporter of the Iraq War”.
In fact Boris Johnson is maybe the only senior politician, previously supportive of the war, who has publicly apologised for that support. I know this, cause I saw him do it on Question Time.
OK, back to Hain.
139 - Indeed there are but it isn’t what he needs right now another yes person to be dominated. It is also faintly ironic that come the election the no-hopers are all in sound Labour seats, and the sound voices are all in no-hope seats.
They’ll probably get the one who’s been chanting ‘more’ the loudest during PMQ’s.
With even the possibility of court case(s) involving Labour politicians and/or office holders taking place within a 9-15 month time frame, i.e. between Oct 2008 - April 2008, this is very more likely to mean the next GE being targeted for 2010 rather than 2009, with Ladbrokes appearing to offer the best odds at 6-4. (Disclosure - I hold bets for the next GE being held in 2010)
141 That’s our electoral system for you, James!
143 Oops, for April 2008 on the second line, read April 2009!
144 - Indeed, but I think it bodes ill for a Labour rebuilding strategy that all they will be left with is a bunch of talentless no-hopers who are all relatively young. Wont be making a comeback in a hurry I wouldn’t have thought.
146. They are going to be out of office for at least as long as the Tories were.
As Hazel Blear would say;
This resignation is been a Disaster for the Tories…!
136 - The film was screwed up by a fearful US film studio who diluted (and, at the last minute re-edited) the original because of worries about the christian right. They were going to (and did) complain anyway so they would have been better going at them with both barrels.
Blimey, it’s all happening today!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7207172.stm
Another resignation! George Galloway has resigned from the Respect Party.
Iain Dale says that Caroline Flint was called in to see Brown this morning…
140
Boris Johnson a, ’senior politician’ obviously your interpretation of the word senior is somewhat different to mine! Whats he actually ever done?
Hain should have resigned some time ago, certainly when the size of his, ‘cock up’ became known. However there should be way of punishing a politician, who breaks the rules, without police involvement. A body that would be able to impose fines,(the money going to the financing of the body) or even recommend dismissal from Parliament.
Hain’s behaviour has been stupid, incompetent but unless the money has gone into his own bank account, most people wouldn’t think of this as criminal. The police must be dreading this!
So Galloway is going to form his own party, I can’t see him holding onto his seat at the next election.
What is almost certain now that this precedent has been set is that there will be arrests on all sides. Salem will have nothing on this. I don’t believe for one moment that all Tory donations will prove kosher or Lib Dem ones for that matter. Build more prisons seems to be the rational response
As for Peter Hain personally it’s a great shame. He was at the forefront of the campaign to rid the world of one of its most evil ideologies. One I might add that was supported by many leading Tories.
154 - He isn’t even trying to anyway, isnt he aiming for Poplar or somewhere?
150/151 Respect joins the SSP & BNP as another fractious organisation - maybe UKIP next
150/151- So this is a 3rd respect party now. Life of Brian quote in 5 4 3…
109. This is interesting.
As you may remember I felt Hillary could get within 5 of Obama, at least but she showed little poll movement so I gave up the ghost. The 19% Obama lead poll however I personally think was bollocks.
For Hillary to really make life uncomfortable however requires Edwards to bomb. If he does, anything is possible.
Is there anyone to the left of Maggie Thatcher with whom George Galloway has NOT fallen out?
155. Fantastic, a classic of its kind. Keep it up Rog, we’re splitting our sides.
158 - I am more reminded of the scholarly quote regarding the Holy Roman Empire!
‘neither holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire’?
155. So as long as you opposed apartheid, you should be able to break the law and not suffer any consequences?
Or as Coldstone puts it, it doesn’t matter if you break the law, because the police shouldn’t be able to enforce it. No. That’s what the police are there for. If the rules hadn’t been broken, the matter wouldn’t be sitting on their desk now. I wonder if Coldstone would be getting quite so worked up at the prospect of someone who until today was a Labour cabinet minister facing charges (and yes, this is still only under police consideration - at the moment), if it were a Tory front-bencher at the centre of enquiries.
Re 155, Roger “What is almost certain now that this precedent has been set is that there will be arrests on all sides. Salem will have nothing on this. I don’t believe for one moment that all Tory donations will prove kosher or Lib Dem ones for that matter. Build more prisons seems to be the rational response”
As Witan pointed out some time ago there have been many occaisions when the Conservatives, Liberal Democrat’s. Green party etc have had a donation (which they have to accept and bank no matter what its source) which later turns out to be not allowable and have given the money back, or forfeited it and reported same. Respect and Labour have done this once.
It is unlikely to be the case that Labour never have a donor make a donation in error is it?
Who’s got DWP?
Gordon Pascoe-Brown now on Sky News talking to his wife and defending his mate Gordon Brown.
Pascoe-Brown said he met GB two weeks ago at Chequers. He says that because GB is on the phone to America that it has delayed the announcement of Hain’s replacement.
So that is alright then?
Not really about dithering? Must be that 6 weeks is not enough time to work out who was going to replace Hain.
164
I’d think the same regardless. What Hain did was stupid, and even worse incompetent, but unless he personally financially benefited from it, then I don’t see it as criminal.
I think there are better ways of dealing with this, than involving the police which will probably be costly and inconclusive.
An independent body, with draconian powers who would be able to fine heavily and if the offence is serious enough even be able too suspend or even dismiss an errant MP.
166 - No-one yet!
155. There will be arrests on all sides - all sides of the border - Wendy in Scotland, Harridan in England & Hain in Wales…
As always the selective memory of Roger glosses over the fact that one of Hain’s major hidden donors was a millionaire, Isaac Kaye, who helped bank roll the apartheid regime. One can assume that it was concealed to enable people such as Roger to carry on smearing others whilst making sure that Hain was not revealed as an ornage faced hypocrite.
Roger, you are forever making unfounded allegations or little errors of fact. Next time you start smearing others dont forget your hero Hain trousering the tainted cash from Kaye.
168 - Unfortunately the law proscribes what he did, and makes it a criminal offence, so what you see it as is neither here nor there.
157 UKIP next in splits?
Well ex Chairman Petrina resigned from UKIP yesterday.
Another ex member of their NEC Linda Guest joined the English Democrats in November.
2nd meeting held over the weekend in Bournemouth of UKIP’s internal group for party reform (of itself).
169- ah! Brown been decisive again I see? Or a case of too many jobs and not enough talent to fill them?
The obvious candidate is Frank Field, but Brown hates him apparently. (Nick P will tell me I’m wrong I’m sure, as the all political parties are full of love for each other.)
155. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Hain was not, in the big scheme of things a big fish in that movement. Prominent yes and good for him to be involved but not a real big fish.
Equally previously being involved a good cause won’t excuse him if he’s found to be corrupt.
168. There are plenty of people who don’t see drinking 3-4 pints as criminal either. Or beating up your wife. Or petty stealing from your employer. Or driving whilen uninsured etc etc…
But they all are.
Sorry If I am off topic but thinking about another Labour figure in the news over sleaze, Ken Livingstone. I do wonder whether the Labour establishment would quite like him to lose the next Mayoral election or may even try to topple him before then.
168. There are plenty of people who don’t see drinking 3-4 pints and driving as criminal either. Or beating up your wife. Or petty stealing from your employer. Or driving whilen uninsured etc etc…
But they all are
168 Coldstone - so you consider the most serious conceivable outcome here as being Hain’s suspension/dismissal?
Hain did at least one good act the compensation to 100,000+ pensioners.
Not all ex ministers can look back on their work and see 100,000 grateful people.
117. You can also molest women and achieve high office in government these days….
179 - Yeah, I really dislike him in general but in the decision to extend the FAS and through his work in Northern Ireland he was actually one of the more successful members of the cabinet recently.
re 168 Coldstone it doens’t matter what you think is criminal. Most people wouldn’t think 33mph in a 30 zone or doing a spot of personal photocopying in the office is criminal, but nevetheless they are and if you get caught at it you shouldn’t bleat.
168. There is already an independent body to decide these things: the