It’s 5/1 that Hain will get back to the Cabinet in 2008
January 24th, 2008
Is this worth betting on?
William Hill are offering odds of 5/1 that Peter Hain will be back in the Cabinet by the end of 2008, and 3/1 that he will return there by the end of 2009. ‘Mr Hain was a 7/1 shot to be out of the Cabinet by the end of this January and 2/1 to be the first Cabinet Minister to lose his position - so many political punters are celebrating his departure’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.‘However, given past situations with, for example, Peter Mandelson, it is far from impossible that Mr Hain could be back in the Cabinet in a comparatively short space of time.’
This is one of those bets that are not on the Hills website and you have to phone. Even then you might need to mention the press release which I have quoted from above.
The 3/1 2009 price looks quite good value.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Whats the price for 2011 ? A bit longer ?
The next time we see Peter Hain in a senior position, will be in the shadow cabinet after the 2010 general election, IMO.
I thought Hain’s personal statement looked quite dignified - in stark contrast to the majority of tory reaction on this site.
Brown doesn’t like him though. Can’t see him coming back myself.
There’s a better chance of him presenting “Top Gear” than getting back in the cabinet… i.e. no chance
If there are no criminal charges brought against Hain, the expectation will be that he will return at some point.
3 Compared to the drivel you post, Gabble, perhaps even a slimebag like Hain could be said to be dignified.
3 oh Gabble, perhaps you’d like to comment on Darling’s uncosted tax cut. Is it the end of the world as we know it?
Waste of money; he’s neither the support on Labour’s benches to need him in the cabinet, nor the talent as a Minister to want him there.
It’s the knackers yard for Pensioner Hain, I’m afraid.
If he’s cleared, sure.
O/T: I see that both Clinton and Obama now beat all GOP candidates in theoretical matchups by essentially equal margins. McCain is the only one in striking distance, as before.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
7. I knew you wouldn’t let me down.
3. - agree - I’m no fan of permatan, but do think he’s handled his exit well - and as for the opposition reactions (from Davos) ‘he should have gone sooner’ will we expect to see every opposition front bencher resign every time the electoral commission or HoC starts an investigation?
As for his return, depending on how the Police investigation goes, Brown wrote in his letter to Hain: “I know that you will continue to make a contribution to public life in the future”
Barring serious charges I guess Gordon’s caution would see 2009 as the likeliest…..
11 Gabble you let yourself down with most of your posts. Hain’s failure to resign has been deeply damaging to the Labour Cause. I wouldn’t put a penny on Hain. 5/1… I’d want 20/1+ before I would open my wallet.
8. Perhaps he’ll fund it out of the impending Northern Rock windfalls.
14 - Oh my word, have you and reality ever been introduced?
“I know that you will continue to make a contribution to public life in the future” by vanishing up your own orifice….
More fun news: Lord Cashpoint to publish his memoirs….
Gabble you are my favourite spoof poster - keep it up
13. “Hain’s failure to resign has been deeply damaging to the Labour Cause.”
Not really - in fact, haven’t the polls narrowed slightly since the Hain story first broke?
14 - I think you’ve gone too far, this time. Now we *know* you’re a spoof.
11 Unlike Hain
We still haven’t heard from you, Nick, whether you still regard Hain’s “honest mistake” as the equivalent of “filing your tax returns late”.
I did think yours was a strange remark at the time, given that Hain “accidentally” set up an entire and pointless think tank, merely to launder his donations.
If you do still believe this lamentable piffle, I must remember to use the excuse with the Revenue boys, when they ask about my book earnings.
“Oh yes, sorry officer, I accidentally set up an offshore bank account to conceal my American royalties. I must have done it with my elbow when I was writing. You know how it is.”
You sad old lefties. You tragic, tragic hypocrites. Please go away soon.
10. Nick P
Almost correct - check again and you will see that McCain is still just in front of Obama by a point.
On the question of whether some Tories “supported apartheid” or at best were not as pro-active opposing it as many others was Cameron wrong to refute Mrs Thatcher’s claim that Nelson Mandela & the ANC were terrorists? They can’t both be right, surely?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/08/28/ntory28.xml
19 - Unfortunately not a very funny one.
10. “If” he’s cleared ? Now even his own campaign team aren’t sure he’s innocent.
Rats and sinking ships ?
23 - I really think that only Roger cares about the Tory / support for apartheid issue and between you and me I dont think he’s a swing voter.
its a sad day for British politics to see this quiet, unshowy and dignified man hounded out of office by the reactionary forces of the right. It is clearly difficult to keep full track of expenses and filing accounts when you are personally responsible for peace in Northern Ireland and the end to Apartheid in South Africa. I think this man will be back quicker than we realise and maybe even one day become Prime Minister. I have often thought of Peter Hain as almost Churchillian in his style and ability to champion causes and we all know that he managed to bounce back from Crises.
Landale on the BBC says Burnham to DCMS.
Actually the way Hain switches between parties he may be a Conservative by the next election and in with a shout as a minister…
28 - So another youngish person with career aspirations to protect, ergo is going to do everything that Gordon asks him to!
2. Hmm let’s see, disgraced minister with a taste for the high life - surely a post as European Commissioner beckons? Perhaps he’s been angling for this all along - it would explain his remarkable conversion from eurosceptic to slavish euro-worshipper.
He seems fond of U-turns - the shift from anti-apartheid campaigner to receiver of money from apartheid supporters being another one.
21. Reminds me of that Ben Elton sketch about the Tory MP (Best?) and his multiple applications for British Gas shares.
“Oh dear, I’ve tripped over the coffee table and accidentally filled in another form.”
Well, it was funny at the time…
27. Quite a decent Roger impersonation there, Jimbo.
Wonder if Lord Cashpoint will gloss over the 1980s?
He was not exactly at the forefront of the onward march of socialism, in fact, well lets say he wasnt far from Finchley either
27. Are you serious?
Actually, I think Hain is a sad case. A case of ambition overcoming decency.
He was obviously full of bright ideals when he was a lad, and brave and honest to boot. Now look at him.
He is the tragedy of New Labour in one man: optimism replaced by careerism, integrity replaced by mendacity, valour replaced by gross vanity.
Someone should write a play about it.
34. yes
35. Bet you wouldn’t say that to his face - he’d make mincemeat of you!
27 - Good…but not (yet) to Adrian Harper standard.
31 European Commissioner for Standards, perhaps?
37 I think that’s rather charitable from Sean T.
38. Yes John, he remains the gold standard of spoof posters.
38. I know, Harper is very much in a league of his own
Yvette Cooper to the Treasury
Caroline Flint to Housing
It appears open and shut that he broke the law. Given the Electoral Commission have decided to give knacker a call, presumably he’ll be found guilty and probably be given a fine or at most a suspended sentence.
Doubt he’ll get back in then, especially given that Brown attempted to improve his reputation by calling him incompetent.
35 Nice post, SeanT.
43. No chance that transportation could be brought back in time for his trial, is there?
Aren’t the odds rather generous, with the assumption that Gordon Brown’s government holds together until 31/12/09?
46. That does seem a long way off - can this shambles really drag on until then?
45, unlikely, the Australians are very stringent about who they let into their country.
47 - Frighteningly yes!
42. Poor Housing dept civil servants. One dreadful humourless hectoring woman replaced by another.
Brown clearly feels the young turds sorry turks are the way to go. If he had any balls, he would have bought Milburn back in to make it look like a Givernment of the (sparce) talents. Clearly he’s as paranoid as ever.
50 - Be fair, when Hain headed for the exit he took with him any serious expectations of success at the next election that Labour might have had. Brown knows that and now knows that calling an election is effectively equivalent to handing in his notice.
I don’t think Flint appears to hector, myself. But what’s really strange is that it’s quite possible that no Welsh MP will have Cabinet responsibility for Welsh affairs - this could be extremely damaging in the Principality for Labour, even in these devolutionary days.
31. Robert Maxwell Chair of Political and Business Ethics.
My mistake - Paul Murphy returns.
My mistake - Paul Murphy returns.
51. Yes, Brown is set to go down in history as an unremarkable, fag end PM - if he is lucky. What a pitiful result from all those years of intrigue and manoeuvring. Was it really all worth it?
Read Ben Brogan’s excellent post.
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
51: You feel that Labour’s chances hinge entirely on Peter Hain’s presence in Government? I didn’t know you were such a huge fan.
O/T: MPs have voted unanimously to accept the phased pay rise (i.e. 1.9% this year). The rebels folded as it was clear they had no chance of winning.
42: Flinty to Housing?
I’ve got a decent-sized semi right now…
58 - Not at all and such a conclusion is beneath you!
59 Bob I didnt know you were a trucker !
35 A guy called William Shakespeare is good at tragedies - maybe thsi is one for him
51, Get your money on then, instead of bullshiting pontificating on here.
I’m quite sad Hain has gone. He would have made a fitting testament to the corruption and above all incompetence that have engulfed New Labour in recent years. Now we can turn our attention to Harman and Wendy Alexander. The former for sure will I think cling to her job come what may.It should be entertaining at least.
Agree with those people who think the promotions of no marks like Purnell and Burnham reveal Brown at his most insecure. Burnham still holds the prize for the most inept interview performance I’ve ever seen on Newsnight when Paxman skewered him repeatedly a few months ago.
64 - what, worse than the legend that is Bob Ainsworth?
O/T- how did the MP pay deal thing not go to a vote? The BBC report that because the front benches of all the parties agreed with the 1.9% it wasn’t voted on but that seems a strange procedure
Re. 54, Blair’s mistake for sacking him in the first place. He was one of the few Northern Ireland Secretaries to win the respect of both sides (and in notable contrast to his two predecessors). It’s a great pity that he’s not at Defence or the FCO, where he’d be better than either Browne or Miliband. Had Blair wanted a genuine safe pair of hands at the FCO in the May 06 reshuffle (as opposed to an opportunistic timeserver whose multiple contortions on the party’s left-right internal spectrum make the Vicar of Bray look a model of consistency) he should have gone for Murphy instead of Beckett.
Re. 31, and one for which, as a right-wing Labour Eurosceptic, I will never forgive him. Another possible explanation would be brainwashing by the FCO during his stint as Minister for Europe.
64 - Purnell was a well-respected Pensions minister who dealt with the Pensions Commission / White Paper etc.. Given the fruits of that work is going through Parliament as a Pensions Bill right now why on earth do you think it was a bad appointment to make? To me it was the right (indeed obvious, if not only) one to make.
http://tinyurl.com/294tfo
New FL GOP poll by Mason-Dixon:
Romney 30, McCain 26, Guiliani 18, Huckabee 15, Paul 4
65, for those not familiar with the Bob Ainsworth gem, here it is again…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziTrlKAkn94
Hilarious!
67 - I understand that Murphy had health problems at the time, although I don’t know long they lasted. But there’s a big danger in promoting yet more tyros.
66 - I think the BBC website report is probably wrong in saying it didn’t go to a vote. What they mean is that it didn’t go to a division.
What happens is that the Speaker will call for “ayes” and “noes” and only if there is an unclear result or it is requested will it go to a division where MPs file through the lobbies and have their names recorded. Those MPs favouring a higher raise will have appreciated the day was lost and it would have been madness to press it to a division so that their names would be recorded for posterity without them even getting the cash.
At least we haven’t read ‘a personal tragedy for a fine public servant’.
But please Mike, can we have no more ‘puffs’ for willhill until you have seen the market on their website? For a bookie to given credibility and risk-free publicity by emailing you a press release sticks in the craw. Especially when I can’t get on.
73 - But sure we’ve all gotten on enough great deals from willhill for them to have earned some publicity here (my personal favourite was 2/1 on John Prescott not being a Lord by New Year’s Day)
When can we expect the Guardian ICM poll?Tomorrow?
rogerh
10 “If he’s cleared, sure.”
Very succinctly expressed by Nick Palmer above. Personally, should Betfair open a similar market, I would be laying.
Well you’ve just got to hand it to Wm Hill for their sheer bloody cheek - they open a Hain reinstatement market before they’ve even settled bets on his exit.
If they can settle horseracing & footy bets in minutes, how come it takes more than five hours (and counting) to settle this market?
72: precisely. Nobody shouted “no” at all, so it went through without a vote. Any two MPs of suicidal bent could have forced a division if they wanted. The power of peer pressure prevented it. (I’m getting the hang of this alliteration technique.)
That Fl poll is interesting - Mason-Dixon seem pretty well-rated. ukpaul’s nightmare race of Clinton-Romney looks more likely than it used to.
Is anyone offering odds on Hain finishing in “clink” at the end of all this?
78. Of course, Clinton-Romney makes it much more likely that Bloomberg will throw his billionaire’s hat into the ring.
Shadsy, if you’re there, what’s happened to Ladbbrokes’ “Year of Next GE” ? Having failed to find it on your website, I telephoned to be told that “several clients had telephoned about the same market”, but that it wasn’t appesaring on their in-house screens. Well, rightly or wrongly, it is shown on Oddschecker’s comparative data.
re 55 so we’re paying £100k for half and hour a week are we?
More FL GOP polls:
http://tinyurl.com/35bvhg
Rasmussen (with changes from Jan 20)
Romney 27 (+2) McCain 23 (+3) Guiliani 20 (+1) Huckabee 15(+2) Paul 4 (-2)
Insider Research (with changes from Jan 20-21)
McCain 23 (+5) Romney 22 (-2) Guiliani 18 (-1), Huckabee 16 (+4) Paul 4 (-3)
Whats the point of this electoral commision, surely they can be given enough powers, rather than keep asking the old bill to spend their time on this.
Anyways they cant say the government has asked them for any favours,as they are upset about the loss of £250 back pay.
Hain will have no chance with the some grumpy old financial invsetigator who`s lost the cost of a flight to the costa del sol.
Anyways sure he will make it up on expenses and leaks.
I think Labour should now be hoping for a clear but modest defeat at the next GE. The worst result for them would be a tiny win, or a hung parliament where they somehow scrabble back into power.
If that happened the disgust and repugnance that would mount during their fourth term in office would be incredible. They would be SO loathed and reviled at the following GE they might disappear altogether: the voter contumely heaped on the Tories in 97 would be as nothing.
Labour might never recover from the landslide that would ensue. They would certainly be out of power for a generation. Possibly they would split and the Lib Dems would replace them.
Whereas if Labour go down to an honest sensible defeat in 2010 the people would say Good, they got what they deserved, now they can do one or two terms in opposition, then they can come back.
Fourth terms are surely disastrous for the party that wins them, as we can tell from this third term of Labour.
3 new Florida polls today. In addition to Romney by 4% with Mason-Dixon, there is also Romney by 4% (Rasmussen) and McCain by 1% (Insider Advantage).
Romney now favourite on Intrade: 50-41.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html
http://tinyurl.com/36ew2q
NH Dem recount completed - they recounted 40% of the votes and found no major changes.
In the re-counted precincts, Clinton dropped 25 votes, 0.05 percent, to 48,940; Obama also dropped, by 7 votes, or 0.02 percent, to 38,408.
Fellow PR bores might be as puzzled as I am by the following story…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7205551.stm
Why is the BBC raising the subject now? Who has put them up to it?
79, Long odds I would think.
However don`t know the penalties that could be imposed.
Nevertheless if the life on mars cops couldn`t stitch Hain up in the seventies, it`s a longshot for the current day peelers.
They seem to have a better chance with politicians who have to go to court then end up perjuring themselves.
88. They don’t need to ’stitch him up’ - he’s already managed that himself.
Perjury was the reason Archer and Aitken finished there.
Flash to sean fear, Isle of Wight, total turmoil on Island council, 4 tory councillors resign etc. what do u know sean?
would a romney win keep huckabee in the game or is he out of it now
64. What’s the difference between Wendy Alexander accepting and then returning a donation from a foreign source and David Cameron’s constituency party doing the same thing?
91. Tomorrow’s front page for sure. hahaha
91 Seems quite tame compared to the goings on in the Conservative Group on Swale DC .
Seems quite tame compared to the goings on in the COnservative group on Swale DC .
91
Don’t you mock the IOW, I had some bloody good holidays there!!
My parents used to tell everyone we went abroad!!
97 I had only 1 holiday there went for a week came back after just 4 days having done all the sights in 2 days .
The next time we see Peter Hain in a senior position, will be in the shadow cabinet after the 2010 general election, IMO.
That would be wonderful for the Tories. Conservatives gain power and Labour pick Michael Foot II.
OT. Huckabee has Chuck Norris. Who does McCain get?
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/rocky_supports.html
re 84 I always thought contumely was a noun
re 101 ignore that I misread the sentence.
3: ‘I thought Hain’s personal statement looked quite dignified - in stark contrast to the majority of tory reaction on this site.’
Quite correct Gabble. In fact I said exactly the same in point 3 here in my ‘10 good reason’s why Peter Hain’s resignation is good for Labour’.
103:…reason’s…
Oops, apologies for the Green Grocer’s apostrophe!
US PRESIDENTIAL - FLORIDA PRIMARY
New polls are consistent in sending the same message: after Floriday Primary the Republican race will (like the Dems) consist of 2 1/2 candidates.
ROMNEY versus McCAIN
with Huckabee yapping at their heals.
A Lib dem councillor in Birmingham has been arrested for vote fraud, seems to have slipped Mark Senior. Perhaps he should keep an eye on his party rather than others.
Yes we do know about Bradford, just a pity Mark has such myopia in his own backyard.
Sorry… I’m getting very far off subject here, but Dale and Guido moderating has gone at bit hard core recently. I say this because I have tried to post a few messages, but unsurprisingly they have failed to appear. Guido is taking credit for ousting Hain, but some home truths are not being published
Did you know that Guido ( Paul Staines ) is an Irish citizen.. Not British
He also lives in Ireland
Furthermore he is currently under investigation by the Charity commission, and could if charges are brought and found guilt face a custodial sentence.
He is also a very successful Hedge fund businessman; we all love Hedgeys, don’t we.
Finally he heads some other businesses in Ireland, these service sector advisory businesses that aid and advise other businesses on how to avoid paying taxes. Their preferred method is registering their business overseas.
Yes…The Right’s Hero is a real man of the people, standing up against the Status political Quo.
Even resignation of wonderweenie like Peter Hain cannot relieve the fog of boredom currently enveloping Brit politics.
AND am speaking as one who has always found your politics VERy interesting. BUT not when the US presidential nomination race is still up for grabs on BOTH sides.
The reshuffle prompts a question on reflection, obviously now Wales has a Secretary of State full time, why is Scotland making do with a part time Secretary of State? Is Gordon giving up on Scotland?
85 - Thompson support may be going to Romney as I suspected. Also very pleased to see my favourite pollster Mason Dixon giving Romney a 4 point lead.
Romney is looking good to take Florida if he can keep this trend going. Giuliani will be toast if these polls are correct.
For those of you, (there must be someone) who find the politics of the Isle of Wight fascinating, I have ferreted out the full story.
Revolution is in the air!
http://tinyurl.com/39wzrq
OT- Prodi loses confidence vote in Italian senate…
109- 161-155 Prodi lost
106. Well, Scotland has a part-time First Minister, so what’s the problem?
for the night owls - The Florida Republican Debate
Broadcast live on MSNBC and streamed on msnbc.com from 9-10:30 p.m. EST, the debate will be moderated by NBC’s Brian Williams. He will be joined by Tim Russert, as well as St. Petersburg Times editor Paul Tash.
104 Arrested yes , we will see in due course if he is found guilty . We have the other ongoing case where a Labour councillor is charged with telling lies about a LibDem candidate re voting fraud and intimidating witnesses who have been called in his trial . How are the Bradford 7 doing ?
111 - It just looks uneasy that Northern Ireland has a full time SoS, so now does Wales and Scotland alone has a part-timer.
OT, and re: the pbc party tomorrow:
I’m probably going to have to duck out at the last minute, with profound regrets - my wife has, this week, come down with the dreaded lurgy (or norovirus, as I believe that it’s called these days), so despite being in the best position to actually make it to a ruddy pbc party for the first time (working in Central London and popping in on the way home), I’m unlikely to meet you all.
However, if anyone is in the general vicinity of the party venue early, I’ll be not too far away and would enjoy meeting up with any early-comers for a drink at lunchtime.
OT. Italian government has just lost the vote of confidence at the Senate.
yes 156
no 161
abstantions 1
Hmm. Last comment stuck in moderation queue. Will tray again with different words:
OT, about the pbc party tomorrow:
I’m probably going to have to duck out at the last minute, with profound regrets - my wife has, this week, come down with this bug that’s going around, so despite being in the best position to actually make it to a ruddy pbc party for the first time (working in Central London and popping in on the way home), I’m unlikely to meet you all.
However, if anyone is in the general vicinity early, I’ll be not too far away and would enjoy meeting up with any early-comers for a drink at lunchtime.
115 - Will Prodi fall on his sword?
117. He has already fallen. A government that loses a confidence vote must resign by law. He’s currently going to Quirinale to give his resignations to Napolitano.
He knew he was going to lose today..he just went to the Senate anyway to “officially” fall
SeanT said something upthread which I wanted to pick up on- it’s “the better to lose small now, not big later” argument. I’ve heard it from a lot of people, and I think it’s completely wrong.
First, there’s no guarantee a party that loses small will regenerate well in opposition. Say you were a Labour supporter in 1951. You lose an election be a very small margin after a radical programme of governance and you assume you’ll be able to get back in after renewing with some strength, but no, your party indulges in fratricide for the next decade. If you lose small, there’s no guarantee you get back in.
Same goes for the Tories in 1992. Winning that election delayed the internal warfare in the Tory party for five years = or at least kept it on a gentle simmer. If Major had lost in 92, we’d have seen an attempt at a full blooded thatcherite takeover, possibly with a similar effect to Foot winning the labour leadership.
Second, I think most politicians would happily trade 5 years of definite power now, versus 5 years of possible power some point in the future. If you win ofice you get to do things. There’s no doubt that the Tories from 1992-9 did a fair bit, for good or ill.
David David Herdson, I see that in the previous thread you commented on the cell phone in the Chamber…now 2 senators are celebrating drinking champagne in the Chamber…
118 - So what do you think is going to happen now, Andrea?
119 - Of course you are right that losing small is no guarentee of being able to win power back quickly but it makes the task easier than if you have effectively lost 2 elections at the same time like the Conservatives did in 1997. Also I refute your point regarding the Conservatives victory in 1992 delaying the warfare, the party was in open warfare for much of that Parliament, it is one of the reasons that the Party was crucified in 1997.
99.
“Labour pick Michael Foot II.
Thought the Tories had already beaten them to it with Michael Gove?
The minds of both always seem not-too-connected with the planet.
122. I see your point, but given that scenario, what makes you think the Tories would have won a 1997 election after fighting lake ferrets in a sack in opposition for 5 years. Labour have tried that on several occassions, and it rarely works!
124 - Must insist that you retract your outrageous smear against ferrets.
124, hard to say if they would’ve fought so. Major may well have resigned, or been backstabbed, and who can say what would have emerged?
More interestingly, for me anyway, is what will happen when brown goes. It could be 2010, or 2015 but it’s unlikely to be beyond that. Hard to see a strong leader in Labour, aside from Denham perhaps. Cruddas seemed a very sensible chap in the deputy leadership contest, a great shame that Harriet “vote for me, I’ve got boobies” Harman got it instead.
126. Posh and pushy always wins, young fellow. You’ll find that out soon enough.
124 - I never said that the Tories having lost in 1992 would have necessarily won in 1996/7 although one can envisage scenarios where it would have been possible.
…especially in the upside down world of New Labour
122/124. Both scenarios rely on 1990 having happened. If Heseltine had not challenged Thatcher, she would have lead the Conservative Party to defeat in 1991/2, with an ongoing recession and the Poll Tax still in place - despite the successful Gulf War.
in that case, Heseltine would almost certainly have become the new leader after the election without anywhere near as much acrimony as subsequently happened, Kinnock and Smith would both have been landed with the ERM debacle (and as they supported entry, they couldn’t have got out of it easily), the press investigations into Tory sexual sleaze either wouldn’t have happened at all (no Back to Basics speach, for a start), or would have been much less prominent - oppositions are far less interesting than governments. The only fly in the ointment would have been Maastrict, though it would not have been as important to the Tory front bench with Labour in power.
Even if a Conservative loss in 1991/2 didn’t lead to a win in 1995/6/7, it seems very likely to me that Labour’s tenure in office would have been shorter than has proved to be the case since 1997.
130 - I agree especially given their policy mix at the time!
Prodi loses! Berlusconi smiles!
The Cavalier will soon reclaim his rightful place atop the Italian tree.
While the World gently weeps…
131. Labour would have faced an economic crisis within weeks if they had won in 1992, which they would have singularly failed to deal with. They would have been out by 1996/1997 for sure - they were very lucky to lose in 1992.
The above is a fools bet. The whopping difference between Blair/Mandelson and Brown/Hain is twofold. First Blair and Mandy were big friends, second Blair owed Mandy big time from 94. Brown hates Hain, has done for almost twenty years and owes him what?!
Re Rod Crosby. My Point was I thought your model didn’t allow sufficent regional variation. THerefore I thought it didn’t allow a repeat Tory 92 performance in Wales while keeping the below that in say Yorkshire.
Re Sean Fear. I’m not sure English migration can be ascribed to any pro Tory shift in Wales. Scotland has experienced a good inflow and er gone anti Tory over the decades. To the point where I think I may speak on behalf of the opinion of most that I would be staggered if Scotland with twice the population produced more Tory MPs than Wales at the next Election
A bit of fun as Peter Snow might say. But let’s play a hypothetical scenario. By Election in Neath in next 12 months. PC would be nominal challengers but could they resist Lord Rennard then
133 - Much as that would have been amusing to behold, I think it is highly unlikely. For sure I think that their policies would have caused them problems I don’t necessarily think that they would have proven fatal, one doesn’t know how the Tories of that period would have set about rebuilding.
84. I never agree with seanT (what writing though!) but I do here. The abolute nightmare for labour must be pulling off being 10 to 20 seats short of a majority and having to soldier on going down to inevitable large defeat. Given that there is modern precident for 5th terms and the omens of 4th terms you wonder why anyone ever wants one.
133 - I agree with you entirely. I met a former parliamentary secretary to John Major in 2003. He put the blame for the poor state of the Tories at that point down to winning the 1992 election, which “we were supposed to lose”.
138 Err cos you might be PM wait and you might never got the shot anyway
I had some dealing with Flint in Police Authority days. While on one level she has the ” bossy woman ” tendencies of many NuLabor women she is not a clone. shes bright, sexy, has presentational skills and a safe seat. I’d happily put a tenner on being Leader one day.
with regard to hain. I will stick to my liberal guns and say that ballsing up an electoral return should be a career killer. I suspect he won’t come back to cabinet simply because there are enough younger talented people in the que and a third term government needs to look fresh. Doubtless I will be baracked by partisans but hed be head and sholders above any Labour AM save Morgan who is retiring. he should get him self on a list for 2011 and make a contribution there. A select committee chair in the mean time.
A party not in Govt would have been able to adopt a far more pragmatic approach (in terms of backbencher management) to the European issue.
“hed be head and sholders above any Labour AM save Morgan” He turned Blaenau Gwent into a Labour target seat..
132/142. Actually, I’m talking nonsense at [132] with regard to Maastrict. Had Thatcher remained PM, it just wouldn’t have happened in 1991 - she’d have vetoed it. It would then have been down to Kinnock to negotiate it at the June summit in 1992 (can’t remember where it was off-hand, but the UK had the presidency in the second half of that year). Heseltine, Major or whoever else took leadership of the Tory party would then have had no commitment to support it, and a good reason not to as it would have included the Social Chapter. The divisions wouldn’t have opened as wide as they did.
148. Gaah! Numbers re-ordered while typing. The post now refers to 136/146.
No interest in the Italian situation? Then which of you lot were betting the £2.5m that was matched on Betfair last time?
Bush and Congress have agreed a stimulus package, markets seem slightly ambivalent about it.
150 - It is entirely unclear what will happen, not sure if elections will actually be called.
147. Ok. I’m just not inspired by the quality of nearly all the devolved bodies members. I doubt Mike german would be deputy spokesperson for Fish if he were an MP. I’d always rather hoped that Charlie and Ming would go to Holyrood just to brighten things up a bit.
153 - The quality of a sizeable number of honourable members in Westminster is not spectacular either!
Don’t know if question was asked on last thread but there is IIRC a limit on the number of paid Cabinet Ministers at 22 - which is why Shaun Woodward isn’t paid, As Hain’s job has now been split making 24 in Cabinet who is the other unlucky unpaid one?
155 - My money would be on Murphy
150- I made my best political betting tally that night, I think very much at the expense of guido who was telling people to fill their boots and back Burlusconi at one stage.
Impossible to know what will happen at the minute
82. Sorry about that Peter. I will rectify that, but probably not until next week. I am on holidays at the moment.
Am I right in thinking that our party hosts tomorrow insist upon shirts and ties? I only ask for a scruffy friend of mine who wants to attend.
O/T Republican Caucuses - if like me you missed the Louisiana GOP District Caucuses here is the link (I’ve not seen the results discussed on Pb.com).
http://lagop.com/
Summary
1. John McCain
2. Ron Paul
3. Mitt Romney
I have no idea how significant this is but………
Any sign of this ICM? I have checked the usual suspects and not a sausage.
71 “for those not familiar with the Bob Ainsworth gem, here it is again…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziTrlKAkn94”
Goodness. That is an eye opener.
Bob Ainsworth isnt fit to work in a Spar let alone a be a defence Minister.
He comes across as a sad train spotter who lives with his mum.
158 Smart casual is the order of the day I believe, which surely means a shirt, but not necessarily a tie - unless he (?) wishes to tour the building. If it’s a he, he sounds a right scruff (i.e. shirtless), if it’s a she, she sounds a bit of a scruff also, but will doubtlees be made very welcome in her shirtless state.
Sadly I won’t be there.
New thread - The South Carolina Obama-Clinton ad wars
O/T - Very obscure scandal in Detroit, the Mayor appears to have been caught out in perjury. Oh well. It may have a marginal impact in November, but if the Democrat nominee can’t carry Michigan they have bigger problems, and that isn’t going to happen!
http://tinyurl.com/2ga8rk
David @ 136,
I seem to recall reading that the Smith/Kinnock commitment to the ERM came with a secret plan to devalue within the ERM immediately on taking office had they secured an overall parliamentary majority. Though I believe this would have made no difference to the ultimate economic outcome - the ERM being relaxed to near meaninglessness by mid-1993 while British interest rates were held artificially high (by a smaller amount for a longer time than was actually the case) - I think it would have made the ERM issue less poisonous than it was for John Major. The real nightmare for Labour would have been a minority administration dependent on the Liberal Democrats, whose economic spokesmen went on the record calling for preemptive interest rate rises in June/July 1992 to defend the DM 2.95 central parity by “burning the speculators’ fingers”.
No chance Hain will be back in my view. Gordon has clearly signalled with the appointments of Purnell, Burnham, Cooper and Flint - and the refusal to contemplate the return of Milburn, Clarke or Blunkett - that he has moved on to the next generation.
Hain is in my view a great man, and I agree with Jimbo Jones that he has an almost Churchillian knack of being proved right after the event, but sadly, the result of the deputy leadership election showed that he is not liked in the party, and consequently has no chance of doing a Churchill and becoming Prime Minister from leftfield.
136/148.
I must be one of very few Tories who thinks Thatcher WOULDN’T have lost if she’d stayed as leader and fought a 1991/1992 election.
Kinnock was one of the most politically unattractive leaders in modern history. Thatcher made mincemeat of him. The British public would never have voted for him. They’d have held their noses and voted for Thatcher, as they did for Blair in 2005.
I expect the 1992 result would have had Thatcher ahead on seats in a hung parliament, or a win on a very slim majority, with a higher Liberal vote.
thats an interesting counter factual. Would he have benefited from bring clarke,milburn,blunkett and frank field in? A ministry of the previous talents? I think ballast is what this government needs at the moment but i imagine they would be come unsackable if brought in in these circumstances?
When was the last time Gordon Brown claimed he had a government or ministry of all the talents? Is there a book on when it could appear again?
Enjoy the PB party. Party on…
I’ve just done a YouGov political survey so there should be something out in the next few days for you all to talk about tomorrow. Alas work prevents me from attending.
Michael Crick on Newsnight described Balls/Cooper as the “first married couple in the Cabinet, but not I suspect the first lovers”
Any suggestions on who he may be thinking of? Herbert Morrison/ Ellen Wilkinson come to mind & possibly Michael Foot/Barbara Castle (long before they married other people in the latter case)
171 Worthy of its own thread surely!
David Miliband supposedly went out with Ruth Kelly for a while when they were much younger.
105
‘3) Peter’s resignation speech will be all over the media, and no one could fail to be moved to tears by the generous and heart-felt praise he gave the Government, the Labour Party, his civil servants, his family, his constituency party and his constituents. It will cement the idea in the public consciousness that all Labour MPs are all good people’
Your taking the piss.
Another sleazy episode from this sleazy bunch occupying the government benches. Day by day, in every way, they are looking more and more like John Major’s Tory government.
Malcolm
Socialist and former member of the Labour Party [39 years in membership.]
I’m no political insider but I’d be amazed if Gordon brought Hain back. Not only does Gordon not appear to be bovvered by Hain’s fate, I’m picking up a whiff of pleasure. And as the blogging hacks like Brogan are pointing out, there’s no sense of panic or dismay in top Labour circles. The narrowness and shallowness of the cabinet is exactly what suits Gordon. Government of all the talents? You must be joking.
More important is to avoid gordonization in Brussels. So vote YES at http://www.FreeEurope.info!
Mr Justice Girvan in November 2006 found him:
“…in breach of the Ministerial Code of Practice” and that the Secretary of State “approve[d] and sanction[ed] the swearing and filing of an affidavit” that “was ambiguous and failed to disclose all the relevant material pertaining to the appointment” ruling that “the respondent [Hain] failed in his duty of candour to the court.”