Friday’s party pictures….by Roger
January 27th, 2008
Thanks to the excellent efforts of Peter the Punter (Peter Smith) and Augustus Carp (David Langshaw) the fourth site party was held on Friday night. Ladbrokes helped with some sponsorship to keep the costs down.
It would be great if in the comments thread those who were there could identify some of those in the pictures. I am in the top right shot with the William Hague haircut. This is a group shot.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
In the group photo I am between Peter the Punter and Mike Smithson!
BTW, fantastic party, great venue!
…Not at the party, but from two threads ago, Anatole wrote this:
“Adam et al. I would submit that in every single election since Barry Goldwater, the GOP have ultimately chosen the candidate most likely to win a national election. It is the Democrats who have not done so. 2004 was remarkable precisely because the Democrats did go pragmatic and were not tearing themselves apart as per usual.”
Anatole - you’re right, though two points have to be made in response:
First, how much is this a case of luck rather than judgement - and by luck I mean that since Goldwater there has been a dominant front-runner emerging very early on who has simply bludgeoned his way to the top of the ticket: Nixon; Ford by default as the incumbent; Reagan as the stand-out orator and Republican visionary of the past thirty years; Bush Snr using the Reagan legacy; Dole as the most senior Republican and least bad of a thin field; G.W. Bush thanks to locking up $100m before the campaign even started. That’s not the case this time.
Second - and this is much more important - the GOP selectorate has changed substantially since (and actually in no small part because of) Goldwater’s run. The activist Republican Party is a much narrower base today than it was when Reagan ran for the presidency.
The GOP traditionally has comprised three factions; fiscal conservatives, social conservatives and foreign-policy conservatives.
The fiscal conservatives used to be the dominant force which is why the GOP used to have such a lock on the affluent north-eastern states that are now pretty much uniformly Democrat. As that trend suggests, the mainstream fiscal conservatives have pretty much switched to the Dems, leaving the hardcore “Club for Growth”, flat-rate taxers as a relatively inconsequential group.
The foreign policy conservatives have fractured into two: the neo-cons who are in disgrace and the fortress America non-interventionists, who can shout loud (as Ron Paul’s fundraising shows) but haven’t got the votes (as Ron Paul’s lack of success in the primaries show). There’s much crossover between Ron Paul foreign and fiscal conservatives, but that doesn’t make the group any bigger.
That leaves the social conservatives, who have both grown to be the - by far - single most powerful faction but have also become so shrill that they’re damaging the party in the middle-class suburbs that both parties need to win a majority. Rove has managed to just about put together a path to the White House by mobilising social conservatives on a massive scale, but the consequence is that once the GOP coalition fractures, as it now has, there’s a real threat they can’t put it back together at all easily because they’ve alienated all-but the social conservatives.
The pack will thin very quickly now until it becomes a choice between McCain and Romney. Neither is to the taste of social conservatives. Romney is closer to them than McCain because he wears his religion on his sleeve even though they aren’t impressed with either. But Romney is where they are on immigration and that may well be decisive.
The gentleman with the beer looks very jolly.
4 It’s Morus.
He looked even jollier in the bar afterwards.
Suddenly, I’ve become a top left-winger.
Below me on the left is GA. And below him is Julian H. IIRC Morus is only here for the beer. And John Wheatley is bottom right.
4. OT did you see that Irish Chamption hurdle?
Useful, very useful and better to come.
Wish I’d been there. Even if it does look slightly like a party for gay weather forecasters.
Just one woman? And what’s with the blazers??
And which one’s Roger? Is he as old as I’ve libelled him? Or surprisingly sprightly for a retired person? Where he?
Glad you all had a good time!
xx
Re 3, Benny “The gentleman with the beer looks very jolly.”
He is, and that is Morus.
Re 4 Peter the Punter “He looked even jollier in the bar afterwards. :-)”
Good Afternoon.
Is that Simon Heffer standing front left?
9 - Peter, and don’t think you didn’t feature in conversation!
John O @ 10.
I’m flattered but perplexed. Do I owe money to one of the members of the Boozy Bald Blazer Brigands? Of course Jan from Norway excluded.
Strong defence by Alan Johnson: http://tinyurl.com/2j8cjn
Seems the original charges have been a bit over-egged.
12 Jan from Norway is dead centre in the group photo, right at the back. He won the prize for ‘further travelled’, although in terms of time and difficulty I expect Honestdave’s journey from deepest Wales surpassed it.
now a dead heat in Florida for the top two - a message to Rudi - your slipping.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1437
14. Guiliani looks gone.
Its noticeable as some polls have seen the two leading candidates pull away as more GOP types make a call on who they are going to vote for that Guiliani hasnt got mch of those previously undecideds so far.
You could contend that a vote for the winner approach has started to come forth and Guiliani’s lack of prominence early on may indeed have caused him a lot of damage.
Further slippage for Guiliaini could well benefit Romney before McCain.
It was a great party. About fifty attended, roughly what we expected, which justified the ‘Friday night’ decision and confirmed again what a perfect venue the National Liberal Club is for us. Hat Tip once more to Augustus Carp.
Quite a number adjourned to the bar afterwards, where there were some fevered discussions which although alcohol-fuelled nevertheless contained some interesting and serious ideas. More of this anon, in a separate thread, but for the moment, suffice to say that PB enthusiasts - and there’s no shortage of them - have in mind a summer party, occasional informal meets for lunch/dinner/drinks, and the possibility of setting up something ambitious for the US Presidentials in November.
Thanks to those who supported the event, and to those who could not attend but sent their best wishes anyway.
Thanks also to Roger for the pictures. That of course is why he is not in them, but no worries; if you want to know what he looks like, just use your imagination. I promise he looks just as you would expect.
Just worth noting Clinton hasn’t won a single state so far if looked at in terms of national convention delegates.
Political Wire is reporting that Ted Kennedy may be about to follow his niece and endorse Obama; that must put Massachusetts in play (and it’ll be interesting to see what Deval Patrick - the [black] governor of the state - does).
7 - Roger was taking the photos, think of Rory McGrath with a red (or was it salmon pink) scarf.
There were some of me with Roger, did those not make it past the censor (You can see a third of my head behind PtP and Benny by the way)?
Btw, if Morus is out then, can you email me please? arklebar@talktalk.net
Thanks
17 - A note on endorsements - don’t overegg their impact. There are plenty of examples of endorsements not having the desired effect. E.g. Culinary Union in Nevada, Sen. Judd Gregg endorsing Romney in NH, Gov. Engler of Michigan endorsing Bush in 2000. THe list could go on. See this article by Stu Rothenberg on the Kerry endorsement:
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/01/why-kerrys-endorsement-wont-help-obama.html
Obviously it’s better to get these endorsements than not - and particularly for Obama who is showing that he can make major inroads into the Dem establishment - but ultimately they don’t fundamentally change the game. Given how close things look though every little helps.
Why is Adam Boulton peddling the spin that GB might call an Election if Ken wins in June. He can’t be that credulous can he? If KL wins it’ll be the KL brand triumphing not the Labour one surely
I’ve read a lot of posts saying “Roger” is actually an alright bloke in real life.
If so, why does he act like such a total pillock on here?
Maybe he’ll change his ways now..
Also - for SeanT an article on a possible reverse Bradley effect in SC:
http://tinyurl.com/2j3tvv
Automated polls had Obama winning the black vote 69-16, while live interview polls had him winning 58-23.
So, he actually won the black vote by 62 points, automated polls had him winning by 53 points but live polls had him winning by 35 points.
This seems to account for the Mason-Dixon screw-up.
20 Given how close things look though every little helps.
Maybe, but not so close on Betfair’s Democratic Nominee market, where Obama is back at 2/1, that’s four times Hillary’s price of 0.5/1, i.e. the same odds that were on offer prior to the SC vote. I backed Obama heavily during last night as he continued to confound all the pollsters’ expectations.
As regards the Presidential market, he has narrowed just slightly over the past 24 hours from 4.6/1 to 4/1.
In the group photo, I am just to Mike Smithson’s right.
Venue was excellent; it’s a shame I had to leave early (as it turned out, when I got home, my wife asked me why I was back so soon! I’d felt guilty because she’d been ill; she was fine by the afternoon! I could have stayed till the end - so I’m very pleased that there are more parties being tentatively planned).
Many thanks to Peter the Punter and Mike, as well as Augustus “Creature of the Night” Carp.
21. As I never tire of saying, Labour must call the GE on the same day as local elections (i.e in a May) because of Labour/LibDem “vote-splitters”.
Also there is more to UK politics than London, believe it or not.
Ooh that is interesting if the Kennedy clan are going to back Obama - we have great respect for Ted Kennedy - he is one of the few decent politicians around these days - makes us think twice about who to support in the primaries - we like Hillary but we are swing voters - so we will see what happens - I still don’t like Obama’s messiah like status - but I honestly think that change is very important in this election and if he won the nomination - we will indeed vote for him - I just wish both camps would stop negative campaigning - make target Bush and the destruction of America - and concentrate on Health, Education, Economy, and Poverty … it would be great if the two of them Hillary and Obama could make up and force a dream team on America .. in whatever order of POTS and VPOTUS
“Fourth PBC Party”? I thought it was the second? When were the other two?
26 Yes but is that May 2008, May 2009 or May 2010 then
24 - Yes I’m surprised the betting hasn’t moved more significantly. In my view the SC vote narrows the chances of a Clinton win from about 65-35 before SC to 58-42 after.
Reasons: This suggests an Obama lock on the black vote at about 80%, plus with large turnout added into the bargain. There is little indication that this is costing him white votes. Although I admit we don’t have much evidence here. Obama’s message is just so much more powerful and this win gives him another chance to project.
Clinton is still the favorite - as I said last night don’t count her out until she is 6-feet under politically - but I’d suggest Obama is the value bet at the moment.
Overall things are looking good for the Dems in November though. Turnout was c. 531,000 - second highest in SC history (only beaten by 573,000 in 2000). It’s up 20% on the GOP primary and 83% on the Dem primary in 2004. Obama got more votes than the total cast in 2004 and more than Bush got when he beat McCain in 2000. Plus 77% of Dems said they would be satisfied with Clinton (41% v. satisfied) and 83% said that of Obama (60%+ v. satisfied).
16: hey, I originally suggested the NLC! It’s part of my subtle tactical voting campaign - “I often get asked to meetings at the National Liberal Club, you know…”
83 on the last thread - what a beautifully elegant retort…want to write my speeches, John O?
Feeling cheerful after coming back from our fourth monthly fund-raising debate - we’re getting more than 30 people a time, paying £20 each to discuss different themes (today was climate change), with a mostly different group each time, mostly youngish non-members.
The underlying premise is that Ashcroft is trying to buy the constituency and we’re the underdogs dealing in serious policies and organising to resist the steamroller. It’s got a nice insurgency feeling to it that I’ve not really seen since 1996.
22. You really have no self-awareness, do you?
21: early election: it’ll create some seriously poor punters on Spreadfair if he does!
32. Is that a rhetorical question?
And not a woman in sight. Disgraceful!
31 Yes, alright, hat-tip to you too, Nick. Now please don’t sulk.
Btw, why are you not in the group photo? Did you hide, or ask to be edited out?
33 - gordon will hang on as long as he can
Nick - do you think he will try to get the term extended to seven years hehehehehe?
31 -
Nick, How about your concession speech to Anna in May 2010 (just teasing)?
31. Hmm… good luck with that “insurgency” Nick!
It’s amazing how upset Labour MPs are getting about Lord Ashcroft, just because he’s a highly talented businessman who knows how to run a campaign.
The Conservative Party easily outspent Labour in 2001 and 2005 as well. It’s not about the money. It’s about the gameplan.
Here’s a friendly tip: why not try it yourself?
I’m bottom right with part of David Herdson!
Above me is Morus (I think)
Above Morus is Kate (Mrs St John)
To my left Is Julian H’s “friend”
Above her is Julian H
Lib Dems ‘not fit for 24hr news’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7211754.stm
Skeleton is nearly there! The LD’s are not fit for anything!
31. “underlying premise is that Ashcroft is trying to buy the constituency” - Do you have any evidence to suggest this? Is he handing money out to people and nudging or winking about voting Tory? Or is it that the Tories are campaining in your seat and you are worried about being defeated (Which i can understand!) by a lean mean Tory electionering machine?
37. Ave It.
You joke…
37. I bet when Brown gets booted out of number 10 he has a hissy fit! “Not fair!!! Electrate don’t know what they are doing…. I want to be PM - If Tony hadn’t……………”
:lol: 
42 - there’s a ‘credit crunch’. And the stock market went down the other day.
NATIONAL CRISIS! Emergency legislation to extend the term!
21, it would be another massive blow to Brown’s credibility after promising no election this year. It’d be a big tactical error. I can’t see it happening.
43 - Gordon is looking forward to his retirement. Ooops should have kept the ‘payment on losing office option’!!!!
21. You would have thought Labour/it’s media friends wouldhave learned their lesson about pamping up election speculation. Once they got away with it, just, twice and it would be time to call an undertaker for the government.
Of course, victory for Ken Livingstone will be victory for Ken Livingstone, NOT Labour.
30 What is it with American pollsters? If the major firms in the UK are out by more than 3% they get a good drubbing. In the US, however, some polls have been wrong by double digit percentages, usually by understating Obama’s support.
Having said that I’ve backed him over the past 18 hours, I just wonder if I’m missing something here? Should he do half as well, in comparative terms, as he did in SC then surely he’s going to give Hillary a very hard fight indeed all the way and may yet prevail - at four times her odds for the nomination, he looks very solid value to me.
Interesting:
http://tinyurl.com/33pumw
Now back to watching “Becoming Jane”. Quite a good film. Anne Hathaway is saucy.
It’s got a nice insurgency feeling to it that I’ve not really seen since 1996.
YES, BUT YOUR THE ESTABLISHMENT THIS TIME! It is you everyone will be looking to get out not the tories. I really do think your politics are stuck in the past sometimes when referring to Tories etc, things have moved on and i get the feeling the electorate will move Labour on! Still a loyal member such as yourself will no doubt get a good shot at being elected to the H of L i am sure. For a Labour MP you have the distinction of having worked in the real world (Private sector) and have good academic credentials plus a good stint in the commons under your belt! Just think no more of the dross involving basic administration (Unless you like it!) - you can then be a mass contributor to Lords debates!
Great event. Thanks once again to PtP, Augustus Carp and Mike for organising. Also shadsy and Ladbrokes for sponsoring the event. My wife Kate is in the fourth photograph, reading from left to right.
24 and 30. I agree with PfP and Kieran that Obama looks overpriced at present. OK, everyone expected him to win SC and the market had already factored in a good win. But his win wasn’t just good, it was stunning! It’s described on realclearpolitics as a rout, a trouncing, a massive landslide.
E pluribus unum, as they say in Rochdale.
Looking at that group photo, one recalls the Duke of Wellington, (almost) ‘My god sir! I don’t know if they’ll frighten the enemy, but they scare the life out me’
46. That was another own goal by Brown. Nobody begrudges him a pension - even if he is unelected and mandateless. Brown seems to have cornored the market in boomerangs and shootguns that have curved barrels!
Re the party pictures: does any one know who the two women are???
Very nice pictures. I hope you had fun on Friday.
For those interested in German Lander elections..
ZDF exit polls…
Hessen: SPD 37%, CDU 36.5%, FDP 9%, Green 8%, Die Linke 4.8%
Lower Saxony: CDU 42%, SPD 31%, Greens 8%, FDP 8%, Die Linke 7%
DW-TV exit poll
Hessen: CDU 35.5%, SPD 37.5%, FDP 9.5%, Greens 8.0%, Die Linke 4.9%
Lower Saxony: CDU 44.0%, SPD 29.5%, FDP 8.0, Greens 8.0, Die Linke 6.5%
Close race as expected in Hessen
53 - i agree he should have kept it. I would!!!!
After all he tries - even tho he is useless!
re 37 it would only take the amendment of the Parliament Act 1911 - quite a simple change, except for the House of Lords.
48. The issue is Edwards.
Despite Edwards perosnla orientation maybe being to Obama there is no guarantee his supporter base will follow.
If Edwards stays in I think he’s eating at Hillary more than Obama. His good result made Hillary look crap last night.
56. I must admit, he knows his economics (Brown) but he even manages to irratate me by politicising and refusing to comment on things other than in a partisan way. He treats people like fools at times! Brown is going to be nothing but a stop gap! Like John Major was a stop gap.
57 - not sure the HoL would like it - might be some time for some new labour peers! LDs would love it in the Commons - 2 years more work!!!!!
54. Ave it. See 40 and 51.
52 You should have seen the other, missing, third - I can only count around 32 in the group photograph.
48 - The key is really what happens to the white vote. There’s an interesting article here which really drills into the numbers:
http://tinyurl.com/2hgb5w
But, the essential answer is we don’t know. Interesting nugget though is that in Nevada Blacks comprise 6.6% of the electorate and Hispanics 19.7% but in the caucus both made up about 15% of the voters, suggesting much higher turnout among Blacks.
The weighted average for the Feb 5th states is White 66%, Hispanic 14% Blacks 11%. If trends hold Obama should win the non-White vote by at least 5 points (higher Black turnout and bigger margin than for him than against him among Hispanics), but in national polls he still trails by 10-20% among whites.
Finally, I posted an analysis yesterday based on polling in Feb 5th states. Clinton led in 10 and Obama in 2. Yet even if we accept that result Clinton probably only comes out with a delegate lead of 200, hardly a knock-out blow. And that’s before any momentum for Obama from last night. Of course, the polls might all be wrong anyway!
It was noticable that the party did not have many of the vitriolic right wingers in attendance……….. It was betters, commentators and lefties.
61 - TY. Sorry too busy posting about the 7 YEAR TERM to bother to read the thread properly!
64.vitriolic right wingers = probably work for a living or scarred of being duffed up by violent LD’s and Labour hacks!
64 - we were in the pub………..
and i was scared that the LDs might shout ‘BOOOOO’ at me!
66 LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
re 59 I notice that Brown has just passed Andrew Bonar Law in the longevity stakes, and closing in on the Duke of Devonshire.
21. “…GB might call an Election if Ken wins in June”
Might pose a bit of a dilemma for the tories. Vote for the absent-minded albino for a tory mayor or vote Ken for a GE.
64. I did not go because i thought there would be no music to hide the noise of smelley woof woofs plus now their is a smoking ban the smell of of rotten haddock and beer is harder to disguise!
64. JW. Yes, it was mainly elders and betters.
63. Quite.
We’ve now got Bradleys, reverse Bradleys, a wild card third Democrat, a wide open Republican race, possible voter fraud, an ex president as husband of a central figure, the first plausible woman candidate, the first plausible black candidate, the first plausible Mormon candidate, the first plausible brainwashed septegenarian ex prisoner of war candidate, a bizarrely ineffective New York mayor hero of 9/11, and we’re still only a tenth of the way into the primaries.
I’d say it’s an unusually interesting nomination race, and anyone who says they can confidently predict the outcome is either a liar, or God. And even God isn’t quite sure.
And now I really am back to my movie.
58 - I agree Edwards could be a spoiler for Clinton. It’s definitely worth him staying in. He’s hovering around the viability mark in most Feb 5th polling (i.e 10-15%). Depending on whether he breaks it in a significant number of states, he could pick up a good chunk of delegates, certainly more than the gap between Obama and Clinton. Even if he doesn’t Dems allocate a lot of delegates by congresional district, and he can be viable in a lot of them even if he isn’t statewide. Another spanner in the works is that the ‘Nevada effect’ may be at play, i.e. Obama doing better in rural areas giving him more delegates per vote than Clinton.
A key question for me is how the Feb 5th results play in the press. Say Clinton wins the majority of states, say 14/15 but is only marginally ahead in terms of delegates, say 100-200 with Edwards having more than the gap, how is that reported? What effect will that have on the following states?
My view increasingly is that it may go to May 4th when Ohio and Texas vote.
51 E pluribus unum, as they say in Rochdale.
Indeed so and in Pontefract also.
It’s always the same isn’t it - you finally agree to take the Missus to the PB.com party and not content with that, she only then proceeds to muscle to her way into the photographs.
I agree with everyone who said what a great night it was Friday, as it was my first time at a PB party I must say how good it was to put names to aliases and faces to names etc.
75 IIRC Mrs StJohn was at the last one as well.
77 Yes, Chris you do - not one to miss out on a bit of sponsored entertainment is our Kate.
51 StJohn
Yes, I agree Obama is currently overpriced for the reasons you give, although note Yokel’s wise words of warning. It’s important for him that Edwards stays in as long as possible.
Thanks for your kind words. Sorry we didn’t get more time to chat on Friday. When we disappeared to the bar, you were busy rescuing your wife from Roger. Did you get her back, or is she now sipping champagne in Villefranche?
64. Our “sort” wouldn’t be seen dead at the National Liberal club
Anyway, it had plenty of vitriolic left wingers in attendance.
Wodger for example.
20. Kieran, I read Rothenberg’s article, which was prompted by John Kerry’s endorsement of Obama - and while he’s essentially right about their unimportance, I think he over-egged his cake.
The principal importance of a Kerry endorsement was the access to money that Kerry brings - one of the largest donor lists in US politics. Rothenberg was wrong to dismiss this because you can never have too much money unless you’re Peter Hain.
I also think there are some endorsements that do matter. Caroline Kennedy’s is one, Oprah Winfrey’s was another - perhaps non-politicians and mega-celebrities are the key here; agree that Ted Kennedy may not be quite so significant and equally may lose whoever they endorse independent votes too. But who cares who Ben Affleck, Jon Bon Jovi or a nationally unheard of congressman from a rock-solid Dem district endorses? Not very many people.
75. PfP. Yes, it’s her annual treat.
79. PtP. All safely reunited. When I joined them he was mumbling something about his favourite restaurateur on the Cote d’Azur?
I would like to agree with John O. It was a pleasure to meet Roger at the party.
16. PtP. Glad to hear other events are being planned.
For those interested I have just discovered, scrunched up in my pocket, a list of attendees at the Political Event Of The Year. For the record, they comprised:
John O
Innocent Abroad
Julian H and friend(s)
Benedict the Blog
Chris Hardy
Double Carpet
Andy Cooke
Tom Thumb
David Herdson
Khunanup
Morus
Sean Fear
James Burdett
Nick P
Roger (guest photographer)
Cicero
Psephologist
UKPaul
David Kendrick
St John
Mrs St John
Barnesian
John Wheatley
GA
Jan from Norway
Rob Blackie
Honestdave (x2)
Augustus Carp
Mike Smithson
Baskerville
Stodge
Stodge’s Beer Belly
Apologies if I have missed anybody. There were a few transients and one or two guests who had nothing to do with PB and somehow managed to miss giving me their fiver, but were welcome nonetheless, so I reckon a total of about 40 overall.
How many can you now recognise from the photos? I can just about recognise them all now. How sad a case am I?
83 - I barely recognised myself!
81 - I agree Kerry brings Obama money but does he really bring him that much? Obama will have already tapped a lot of those sources anyway. Money won’t decide the Obama Clinton fight because their both pretty even and when they’ve both raised $100m plus a few million either way won’t make a massive difference.
I think SC shows Oprah may have had an influence with black women but there is no evidence of any further impact. Oprah has actually been heavily criticised by some viewers for her endorsement and hasn’t appeared on the trail since before Iowa, I think an indication of her limited value.
Similarly Caroline Kennedy - it gives him a boost and should help him in the north eastern states but doesn’t it appeal to the kind of voters that are already supporting Obama - upper income, young, independents. Working class voters are probably not going to even hear that endorsement, and care more about bread-and-butter issues than comparisons to JFK.
So, I stick byy my argument that endorsements are helpful, they provide a publicity boost and can help at the margin,and may even swing a tight contest. But I don’t think they fundamentally change the dynamics of the race.
83 - generally sensible people. The ranters on here from both left and right werent there!
Maybe next year there should be an event for them - held in a pub with a curry to follow - with compulsory swearing and loudness!
PtP @ 83
What about new Work & Pensions Secretary James Purnell? Did someone forget to superimpose his image in the group photo to make out he was there, even though he really wasn’t?
82 Glad but not surprised to learn you got her back safely, StJohn. She seems a sensible woman and not one likely to give up her half share in an Aston Villa season ticket for a pied a terre in the South of France.
Slightly random observation:
it’s nice to hear British politicians of all colours aim to reach a consensus on loan/donation and spending caps when the crazy Americans spend fortunes on protracted campaigns.
86. Great idea!
That would be fun…
I’d particularly enjoy ACTUALLY hearing you laugh this long!!
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!
I expect, in reality, though, we’d all be much more polite, level-headed and sensible if we met for real
90 - depends if mark junior, paul lloyd and sbs came - we could make faces at them!
HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE
86 You will be no doubt be flattered but not wholly surprised to learn, Ave It, that one or two people enquired as to whether you were likely to put in an appearance. I indicated that the travel costs from Skeggie had proved prohibitive and it was suggested that next time PB should consider sponsoring you.
It will be proposed to The Organising Committee.
Hello all,
Good to meet old and new on Friday, including putting a face to the wisdom that is Stodge and finding notably affable types such as Morus and Baskerville.
I should stress that my friend really is just a friend, rather than a “friend”. Don’t believe Andrea’s scurrilous rumours.
Apologies for not coming to the bar afterwards; I was a tad off-form due to tiredness and hangover. Looking forward to the next one and I will, no doubt to the delight of all, attempt to post here more often again.
Cheers, la.
92 HEHEHE and TY - i know that some of you would have missed me! But my favourite LD posters werent there!
86 That is the most amusing thing you have ever said on here , Ave it .
Hey guys, when you have the party, can I come too?
Alan Johnson, secretary of state for health, has joined his ex-colleague Peter Hain in the soup over donations to his deputy leadership bid.
One of Johnson’s largest (legitimate and declared) donors was Reg Race (ex labour MP).
We wrote about Reg on my blog on 7th June 2007 (Nice work, Reg). Interesting how the worms keep turning.(www.vote4barry.blogspot.com)
9 What an insult!!!. I travel all the way from Swansea only to receive that comment.
New Rasmussen polls:
National tracker showing GOP race turning into a McCain v Romney fight , the Clinton lead has widened from yesterday (when it suddenly dropped to 3 points from about 12) but of course this doesn’t take into account the SC result.
(Changes from a week ago before SC result became clear and Thompson dropped out)
McCain 27 (+4), Romney 27 (+7), Huckabee 16 (-1), Guiliani 14 (+6), Paul 6
Clinton 40, Obama 31, Edwards 17
Also have new Florida polls out (changes on Jan 24).
Romney 33 (+6), McCain 27 (+4), Guiliani 18 (-2), Huckabee 12 (-3), Paul 2 (-2)
Clinton 44 (-7), Obama 25 (-1), Edwards 19 (+6)
Will be intersting if the Dem florida result has any impact. I know in theory it shouldn’t but if Hillary wins by 20 points plus it’s got to give her a boost, surely?
anyways back to politics.
The Labour fightback has started in earnest. A New Year means new leads for New Labour.
Labour’s Invasion Immigration Policy is proving successful across the nation!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=510685&in_page_id=1770
95 HOHOHO - i am LD now!
All - going out now - for beers + curry - but I MAY be back!
96 You would have been very welcome, Alf. Hope you can make it next time.
Hessen: CDU 35.5%, SPD 37.5%, FDP 9.5%, Greens 8.0%, Die Linke 4.9%
new projections have Die Linke at 5% now, so matching the threshold to get seats
This Alan Johnson thing is the biggest load of rubbish i’ve heard. One would think that the Sunday Mirror only ‘broke’ the story in the hope that the Tories would go ludicrously over the top in reaction to it.
No, actually, Alex, it isn’t rubbish. Check out the link from my posting 97 above, or read the account of it which appeared in the Sunday Telegraph, or read the questions in parliament asked by Mark Hoban MP.
Best wishes
Evening all
Re: 103 - Hessen looks a dreadful result for the CDU with their vote down 12.6% from the 2003 equivalent with the SPD up 8% and the FDP doing well up a couple of points. If Die Linke scrape in, they will get six seats while the CDU loses no less than fifteen leaving the SPD the largest party in the Landtag.
Niedersachsen is less clear cut with a storming entry for Die Linke and both the CDU and SPD set to drop votes and seats. Despite what have appeared to have been positive noises from Germany, I wonder if Merkel is getting into trouble.
More information on this excellent microsite:
http://stat.tagesschau.de/wahlarchiv/heni/FLASH/index.shtml?wahl=DE_HE
If that link doesn’t work, go into the ARD site at http://www.ard.de and click on “Ergebnisse in detail”.
Re: 83 - It was a most enjoyable evening and a pleasure to meet everyone. As for seanT’s usual pithy comments, I would merely point out that most of us had probably come from our places of work - if we had held the party in a backstreet bar in Bangkok, we would of course have been able to meet seanT at HIS place of work
Did I miss the wit and wisdom of Ave It? No, not really if inane ramblings and maniacal use of “LOL” counts as wit and wisdom. Perhaps it does in Skeggy..
I do take the most strenuous exception, however, to Peter the Punter’s reference to my beer belly - my stomach is the result of years of serious and devoted gluttony - beer doesn’t enter into it (in any form !). Any idiot can quaff their way to a belly - I’ve scoffed my way instead !!
In the picture I am on the centre-right near stjohn…
I can only think that several refused to sign their model release forms….. The close ups have been reduced to a sorry rump! Where are the rest? Stodge and UKPaul in particular ought to be included as they are surprising…and Augustus Carp because he looks exactly as you would expect………
105 - Sorry, what am i supposed to be reading? If a candidate accepts a donation from a legitimate donor, and have no reason to think it is on behalf of someone else, then they have done nothing wrong. Anything else would result in an unenforceable law with rival candidates setting up “anonymous” donations with the aim of embarrassing their opponents.
The Tories know it’s a non story which is why when Alan Duncan was on the news story he spent more time talking about Northern Rock.
Another interesting thing on the German Land elections is the big drop in turnout in Niedersachsen which suggests a lot of CDU voters in that state stayed at home.
In the exit polling, voters in both states were asked which “option” of Government they preferred. Both the CDU/FDP and SDP/Green options were much more popular in both states than the CDU/SPD option.
108…try looking up the word “smug” in the dictionary, and then look in a mirror
Seattle Times endorsed BARRACK OBAMA for President in this morning’s Sunday paper.
WA State Democratic & Republican precinct caucuses are Sat, Feb 9
Followed by WA State Presidential Preference Primary on Tue, Feb 19
Democrats are selecting all pleged delegates via caucus system (first precinct, then county OR legislative district; then congressional district, and finally state convention, with national delegates elected at the CD and state levels.
Republicans are allocating half of delegates based on similar caucus process, and the other half based on results of the primary.
ALSO nationally syndicated & award winning Seattle Post-Intelligencer cartoonist David Horsey today published a very apt comment on the “Billary” situtation:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/horsey/
What do you mean, Roger? What should I look like? In photo 5 (i.e. the photo to the left of Morus, with the beermug) I am the shadowy figure in the background, behind Julian H. I appear to be making threats to John O.
Glad everyone enjoyed themselves - I heard some great stories, which I will release over the coming weeks unless the Hush Money comes rolling in fast. No-one from the General purposes Committee of the National Liberal Club has been on to me with any complaints (yet!), so I hope to be able to invite everyone back there in the not-too-distant future.
Sean Fear and a few others arrived after the photo was taken, by the way.
103 - how do those numbers compare with previous. FYI my forfathers were driven out of Hesse circa 1845 (pre ‘48 anyhow) on general principles most likely!
113 Sorry, just saw 106
110 - Well if the definition of “smug” is “confidently expressing an opinion” then I plead guilty. Then again that would cover anyone who’s ever posted on here.
Personally think talk about “Bradleys” and “counter-Bradleys” is bunkum.
Sources inside both Obama & Clinton campaigns told me they saw zero evidence of racial-based “shyness” in New Hampshire. And little reason to think the reverse occured in SC.
For one thing, in direct contrast to the SC campaign, Palmetto State voters displayed ZERO signs of racial tension. Certainly with the bulk of the old civil rights establishment led by the incomprable John Lewis sticking by the Clintons, African American voters were free to support whichever candidate they personally prefered. And believe that White Democrats had the same feeling.
112. An elegant Liberal-which is exactly what you do look like!
Thank you, Roger, you are most kind. My only political ambition is to become a Whig Grandee.
Ted Kennedy to endorse Barack Obama tomorrow…
119. Wow! How do we expect this to affect the market?
116 But wasn’t there a sharp difference for Obama with the vast bulk of his white voting demographic coming from the younger end of things. I know that may have nothing to do with race but I can’t help but wonder if any depressionary effect for an African-american candidate is still there but concentrated in older voters
119. Poor Obama..surely he’ll now ’sink without trace’
120. Who knows, but he’s a big name among Hispanics due to his high profile support for a path to citizenship in immigration reform.
118. Augustus. My only ambition is for a big brandy.
122. Lol! Though in poor taste.
122. Democrats think very highly of Kennedy, although conservatives and conservative-leaning independents don’t.
Kennedy’s endorsement would be the biggest demonstration yet that the Democratic establishment is no longer going to shuffle in a pro-Hilary direction. Apparently, the leak comes from the Clinton camp - it’s probably easier from their POV if the news comes in the wake of SC, rather than just before the other races coming up.
Amusing little bit on the Channel 4 awards
Countryside Alliance milking it a bit…
I think a lot will come from what is said in the endorsement. If Kennedy goes along the lines of “I was going to stay neutral, but the negative attacks from the Clintons caused me to back the guy with more integrity” it could be very damaging.
There is one way that Mitt Romney’s Mormonism can HELP him in the general election.
Last Sunday, there was a heavily-publicised church service in (I think) Atlanta attended by Bill Clinton, Mike Huckabee and a host of Black movers & shakers. Both BC and MH spoke. Also a prominent local Black woman (a mayor from somewhere I think) who read out a list of her own capsule descriptions of the presidential candidates.
Only two I remember are
1. “a First Lady” and
2. “a Mormon”
Her point in alluding to Mitt Romney’s religion was NOT to castigate Mormonism as a prenicious anti-Christian cult or anything remotely like that.
Instead, she was PRAISING the presidential field, and by implication the Republican Party, for its DIVERSITY.
In other words, having a Mormon running is a GOOD thing, not a bad thing.
126. Amazing what a name can do, isn’t it? Even if it’s connected with…pro-Nazi sympathies, gun running, serial adultery, vote rigging, leaving the scene of a traffic accident with fatal consequences…etc etc
130 - Think it most unlikely Ted Kennedy will say anything of the sort. There IS such a thing as senatorial courtesy after all.
BUT the rallying of the Kennedy Clan around the standardbear for the newest frontier indeed shows that the ice is starting to crack a wee bit beneath the Clinton’s.
132 - Go stuff yer fathead back up yer fatass.
127. I am determined not to get hyperbolic, given that the New Hampshire scars on my back have yet to heal. But Obama has cast himself in the JFK mould, has oratorial skills that are comparable, has today been backed by JFK’s daughter Caroline and is apparently tomorrow to be backed by JFK’s surviving brother, Ted, the elder statesman of the Democratic party. The significance of the white Kennedy clan giving their support to the new, young, change candidate seems enormous to me. Then again I said I won’t get hyperbolic.
And yet…?
122. genius….
134. Oh dear - touched a raw nerve eh?
Really I would have thought after a couple of hundred years plus of independece you Americans would have grown out of the sort of mindless worship of political dynasties seen in the Indian subcontinent.
137 - “mindless worship of political dynasties seen in the Indian subcontinent.” - or Greece.
Given the rather severe judgements that are made of some contributors here, I’m a little puzzled at their willingness to be identified at a social function, and even to allow images of their faces to be placed in public.
Meet the Press had some interesting insight into the tanking of Rudy Giuliani.
Seems that back in November 2007, the number of voters nationally who had a favorable impression of Rudy was about double or thereabouts the number with an unfavorable impression.
However, current polling (sponsored by ABC methinks) shows that this situation is now reversed.
Question is, why?
Three likely answers (by me, not ABC):
1. Indictment of Rudy’s corrupt cronie Bernie Kerek AND expose of NYPD protection for Rudy & Judy’s Long Island loveshack.
1. Positions on key issues, esp. immmigration & guns, that are anathema to base GOP voters
2. The more that Rudy made contact with voters, the LEE they liked him.
another very diverse group
Nice photos!
You are a welcome addition to the diversity, Jane!
132. Do you believe everything you see on FOX?
Amature spinmeistering by the likes of Nick P to the contrary (for I believe the intrepid MP’s views to be sincere and “unbought”) the notion that Obama bears equal blame with the Clinton’s for the mudbath that was the South Carolina Democratic Primary is a DOG THAT WILL NOT HUNT.
The national media KNOWS BETTER. The pundits KNOW BETTER. And Democratic and Dem-leaning Indepedent OPINION LEADERS in every community across America know better.
True, Obama did allow himself to get himself to get into the muckpit. Which is reflected in the number of SC primary voters who said that both Obama and Clintons were blameworthy.
However, am personally convinced that PART of the blame both number is due to the cultural & natural Southern courtesy of South Caroliniansm, plus desire to be fair to all sides. After all, large majorities of supporters of ALL Democratic candidate said they would be happy suporting the OTHER Dems come November if one of them ends up with the nomination.
I think it is way to partisan to blame one side for the dirty tricks campaign - it was both sides - and one thing I do agree on is that it has to stop - I would happily vote for Hillary, John, or Barack - they are all 3 worthy candidates - I would prefer Hillary to win but that is personal choice - but if Obama was on the ballot paper come November we would vote for him - we would also most probably put up a yard sign - our desire is for a Democrat victory …
Don’t any of you punters have some good contacts with smart guys who hang out at Florida’s many horse tracks, dog tracks, jai lai frontons, Indian casinos, pool halls, locker rooms, etc, etc????
WOULD BE a good moment to scare up some good tips!
145. You need to cut out the capital letters. It makes your posts read uncomfortably like the cyber-equivalent of the green pen brigade…
Well done all, and PtP especially for the organisational work.
Decent beer too.
rej4sl. You refer to yourself in the plural. Our you royal or multiple?
146 - Well, as my mother dearest used to say, it does takes more than one to tango.
Have been feeling pretty sore at the Clintons, but make no mistake, will actively support and cheerfully vote the 2008 Democratic nominee, be they Obama or Clinton or Edwards.
Only sorry you’re ineligible to run yourself, Rej; perhaps you and Arnie should get together on the constitutional amendment!
146 Rej4sl
That’s nice to hear, Rej4sl. I agree; the Dems have three strong candidates to choose from. The weakest of these, Edwards, can count himself unlucky to have come up against such strong opposition.
The GOP side too has some perfectly credible candidates. The problem seems to be the Party itself, which is a house divided against itself.
148 - Thanks for constructive, will try to reform a wee bit . . .
146. What exactly are the dirty tricks Obama has used against Clinton? The worst he has said is that she worked on the board of WalMart. There has been no mention of Monica Lewinsky, Bill’s other affairs, Hillary’s real estate controversies etc.
Whereas on the other side, the Clintons have thrown everything they possibly could: his drug use as a youth, his Muslim heritage, Tony Rezko, the idea of the black candidate “shucking and jiving”.
152 - Is that that brewskie talking, PtP?
Agree the Republicans have some decent candidates, indeed ALL of them are credible in their own (occassionally weird) way:
–Giuliani is some I consider (like Macarthur before him) tempermentally unfit to be president YET no one can deny his proven leadership ablity or his capacity to uplift, motivate and inspire.
–McCain is a true American hero; no plaster saint (itself a good thing) who speaks “truth to power” with power; an “outside insider” who knows all the Beltway tricks, traps and spiderholes.
–Romney is a very successful business manager and entrepreneur who has cost himself money by devoting so much of this time and energy to generally successful public service
–Huckabee brought a new sense of energy to the GOP race plus a fresh “happy warrior” persona and image for the religious right, which I see not as camoflage but rather as part of the movement of evangelicals AWAY from hard-core condemnation & rightwingery.
–Paul continues to stand as a Christian gentleman (in the very best sense of that very old fashioned term) for a genuine American conservatism, the kind to which the GOP pays lipservice but always betrays.
can’t see any obvious value in any of the nomination markets now. Have closed down most of my GOP positions with a tidy profit if either McCain or Romney succeed, and a biggish loss if Giuliani does - but won’t be losing any sleep over that. The McCain prices seem to be pricing in a win in Florida tomorrow, so there could be quite some movement if he loses, but the record of the polls is so bad that trying to call the GOP primary looks pretty hopeless to me
The great thing about Obama is his potential to win big. His claims about increasing black turnout and putting more southern states in play look more realistic today than yesterday.
Arguably 2009/10 will offer the Dems their best shot at serious and radical reform in a generation. The House GOP is in disarray with 25 retirements already, and the Dems have a huge financial advantage. As an example see this poll: http://tinyurl.com/35hda3 It shows the Dem candidate in Wyoming narrowly ahead of the leading GOP candidate 41-40. It’s an open seat with an unpopular incumbent and the GOP will probably retain it, but that it is so competitive shows the Dem strength. It certainly looks plausible for the Dems to gain 7 seats giing them a majority of 45.
In the Senate they should pick up at least 3/4 seats but could get a many as 7/8, putting them close to a filibuster-proof majority. That would make it the most liberal Congress in many years. Lets hope the Dems don’t screw it up.
157 - That is as maybe, but I think the last week of campaign has shown that he is also capable of falling into elephant traps. He should never have descended to Hillary’s level. It will probably cost him elsewhere, yes he won by a stonking margin in SC but it remains to be seen if he can replicate it elsewhere. We are back to post Iowa territory and frankly I don’t think anyone wants to fall into that trap again. Maybe he will get momentum leading up to Feb 5th but he could just as easily not get momentum and be slam-dunked by Hillary.