Should your money be on the man with money?
January 27th, 2008
Will it be the wealthiest contender who gets the GOP prize?
After Florida on Tuesday the whole nature of the battle for the Democratic and Republican nominations changes and, more than at any stage so far, the importance of money to fund a campaign becomes critical. For a week on Tuesday there will be primaries in states that make up nearly half the population of the US and it’s going to be very hard to make a big impact across such massive groups of voters without resources.
During the week the Wall Street Journal looked at the whole issue of campaign finance amongst the GOP candidates and the table above is reproduced from the article. From reading this the conclusion is quite stark - Mitt Romney is the wealthiest contender and has the ability to spend massively in this crucial phase.
For Romney has been able to dip into his personal resources and self-finance - an option that is not open to the current front runner John McCain, Rudy or Huckabee.
I’m continuing to maintain a biggish position on Romney because he’s in with a good chance in the winner-takes-all election on Tuesday and can outspend everybody else the following week.
He’s also the candidate who is most favoured by the GOP establishment. Romney is 2.1/1 second favourite on Betfair with McCain odds-on at 0.87/1.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
John McCain has just 17 to 81k in assets? I know he’s had a lifetime of public service but there surely some mistake there.
[1] JS, that’s what I thought… hey, I’m in that range, and I’m dirt poor.
From the previous thread, there was a view that McCain was the most electable of the GOP field - if our cousins are still with us (unlikely at this time of day, I know) - do they have a view on whether it would help or hinder McCain to announce he’d serve one term only?
If McCain only has assets of £10000 no wonder he wants to be President! I should think any paying job would help…
….alternatively remembering he was a guest of honour at the Tory Conference perhaps he’s squirreled it away to avoid tax?
3. Do you never tire of posting this inane drivel, Roger?
Missed the new thread so will repost below. On this thread - yes, I’d think that having stacks of cash are going to make a big difference on Super Tuesday, when the sums needed to compete in every state are simply astronomical.
Very startling figures! And they fit with the sudden shift in the national rolling Zogby poll, so we could see Obama in the lead in national figures in the next one after SC. Hat-tip to PfP: he was right and I was wrong about those 2-7 odds on Obama in SC.
What does it mean? Well, before we saw the result I was predicting a boost to Obama in the betting, and now there certainly will be a huge one. The point is the media narrative. The exit polls suggest that SC voters didn’t actually think the Clinton campaign was that much dirtier than the Obama one (or, to be precise, that the majority who thought it was is not huge), and of the two clips we had on this site the Obama one was much nastier. But the media are going to play the “shiny new politics beats dirty old politics” theme and it’ll resonate for a while. I’d expect Obama to be ahead in a national poll sometime soon.
At that point, it seems to me that Obama’s odds will shorten sharply. They are still showing Clinton at about 1-2 and Obama at nearly 2-1: he should go down to 6-4 at least, perhaps close to evens. But at that point those of you who bet *might* want to take their profits. Obama is a ‘euphoria candidate’ and although he may sweep through to victory I think the balloon will get punctured at some point, at which point it will suddenly look different, in the same way as the IA/NH pattern.
Incidentally, the result seems to dispose of seanT’s Bradley effect theory. If white voters in SOUTH CAROLINA, home of Confederate flag controversies and the like, vote Obama more than the polls suggest, are there other states where it’s more likely that people are secretly reluctant? Although a Clinton sympathiser, I’m glad to see that people are voting for the person, not the skin.
By the way, the Spreadfair spreads are a bit crazy, aren’t they? If you want to bet on Romney you can get 4.8, but if you want to lay him you have to offer 0.2! Must be scope for people to fill the gaps with other offers.
In answer to Roger’s very interesting (if a touch provocative) question at 144 on the previous thread.
I think there are two very different UK Conservative factions cheering on Obama.
Firstly there are those who want Obama to be the Democrat candidate because they believe that the Republicans will beat him.
Secondly there are those who want Obama to be the Democrat candidate because they genuinely like him and want him become the next US president.
Obviously both factions can’t be correct but, for what it’s worth, I place myself firmly in the 2nd group - with those UK Conservative voters who think that Obama would make a great president.
You can’t really expect any UK Conservative voter to seriously like Hillary Clinton - though if pushed I’d much prefer her (or indeed and Democrat) to any Republicans by a mile.
6 - should read as (or indeed any Democrat) in the last line rather than (or indeed and Democrat).
From previous thread
This is not just a black and white issue, all of the white men who have become President, have been a certain sort of ‘White’no: Jew, Pole, Italian, etc.
If Obama makes it, he won’t only be the first Black Man, he’ll be the first, (apart from JFK) non-WASP, unless anyone can think of one?
3 - as a senator he earns more that 165k
Perhaps Roger could send McCain details of that well known Labour grandee, Lord Levy. Despite being a milionaire he manage dto pay just £5,000 tax a year.
10 - where did you get that figure. That’s worth than the tax year Thierry Henry paid 157 quid in income tax.
6- Boris Johnson is a Hillary fan.
12 - no, he’s a Bill fan and is gritting his teeth and supporting Hillary to get her husband back in the Oval office.
It was extensively published when Levy became a personality. One of his “friends” leaked the information.
12 - I know that. But I said “you can’t expect”. There’ll always be a few who defy expectations won’t there?
8. If you’re excluding Kennedy on account of him having been Catholic, then Bill Clinton doesn’t count either, as he’s a Baptist both in religious denomination and perhaps more relevantly to your comment, in a social way readily identifiable to large parts of the black community in the South (one which Hillary isn’t, by the way).
[16] I can’t imagine many Baptist ministers in Arkansas ever endorsed Bill Clinton, though.
Interesting to look at the next Republican races in terms of open/closed and wiiner-takes-all/proportional. If you think of this as a grid, the races are divided out fairly evenly, with the lightest corner being the closed+proportional one. Anyway, here’s the thing:
- Romney should be banking lots of delegates in the races which are closed (no independents to vote for McCain) and winner-takes-all. But of the seven in this category up to and including 5th Feb, Arizona will go to home senator McCain, and McCain enjoys substantial poll leads at the moment in California and New York (Romney is 3rd in NY). That leaves Romney with Florida (tough race) and a few smaller ones.
- but if Romney wins Florida, that means a poor Giuliani result, and that is very good news for McCain - as those two are fishing in the same moderate/liberal/looking for electability pool of voters.
18. That would be “winner-takes-all”, not wiiner, whiner or wiener..
14. No doubt Levy (and Roger) agree with the traditional champagne socialist maxim that ‘taxes are for poor people’.
Steven Whaley @ 6 re Conservative Obama fans.
A third faction will be pleased that a large part of Obama’s platform is to sit down with the Republicans and big business to hammer out agreements (… end divisiveness …). If you can’t have a GOP President, Obama is the next best thing.
That awful, polarising Clinton thinks the Republicans are part of the problem!
The odds against Hillary might have drifted post-SC, but, er, they didn’t. She’s still 1/2. So the bookies think she’d win 2 times out of 3 from here. Tough to argue with that.
On the republican side, McCain is 10/11, and Romney under 2/1. With Rudi still a runner, and Huckabee yet to concede, the over-round looks unattractive.
Where’s the value, Mike?
Morning punters. Have just got back to the country after a week on the slopes and bars of France, and it must have been a slow news week as it looks like Peter Hain is still being talked about as he was when I left.
Gutted to have to miss the party on Friday - any photos anywhere?
And I’ll go with Mike on switching to Romney. I was predicting Huckabee before, but that was dependant on him bagging South Carolina, which he (surprisingly in my view) didn’t manage. McCain seems like he could alienate too many voters, and no-one is talking about Romney’s Mormonism any more. However if it is Romney vs Obama, expect Obama to play on his (sincere) Christian credentials more than otherwise!
Speaking of Roger, I was intrigued to read the following post by our esteemed host a few threads back
‘Great to see you last night Roger - you are nothing like I imagined you would be.’
This is fascinating becasuse a while back, when someone speculated that Roger was an invented persona, Mike responded that Roger had attended the first PB.com party ‘and seemed real enough’
8. America’s worst president, Warren G. Harding, was possibly part-negro…
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/59183/
Mike, are you head of the UK chapter of the Romney campaign? Because for some reason you’re trumpeting his “advantages” every time you mention the GOP race.
Surprise of the day: Roger and Nick Palmer both talking rubbish.
We have drivel in stereo!
To address the most piffling error: NickP, the result in South Carolina does not disprove a Bradley Effect in New Hampshire, as well you know. Neither, of course, does it prove it. They are wholly different votes in wholly different circumstances.
I think a small percentage of whites in NH felt pressured by Obamania into saying they would vote for him. When it came to it, their suspicions of a black candidate as president - and if NH had nominated Obama he almost certainly would have become the Dem Nominee and then the president - were overriding, and they opted for Hillary.
Given that there is a long history of this - i.e. the Bradley Effect, zzz - its hardly surprising.
Can I ever prove it? Probably ot. But the multiple variables in this remarkable contest make it imponderable for everyone.
As for Roger’s point. He’s simply wrong about Tory support for Obama.
Sadly I read the other day that most Tory MPs, like most Labour MPs, are actually plumping for Hillary. Perhaps this is simply because they think she is going to win.
It may also be an age thing. We have already established that more elderly people, retirees like yourself, opt for Hillary.
Most MPs are getting on a bit. Maybe its as simple as that. Note that the youthful Cameron is an Obama man.
On the left I also think a subliminal racism is at play. Leftwingers like black voters as long as they remain clients - a minority that can be patronised, and relied on, and patted on the head, and given jobs in commissions for racial equality.
When a black man actually looks like he might become prez, suddenly the establishment left wants to put the uppity African-American back in his box. Witness the Clinton’s camp’s loathsome racebaiting: Hillary’s condescending remarks about Martin Luther King, and the stuff about Obama’s drug use, and the pushpolling about his middle name Hussein.
It is arguable that lefties in the west are the most racist of us all, because they have not examined their souls.
Who knows. Certainly the support for Obama comes from unpredictable quarters.
No sure whether it has been posted in earlier threads, but the exit poll on CNN (and presumably others) appears to have got the result spot on. Does raise some questions about the methodology of exit compared to pre-poll polling as I do not believe there was any suggestion of such a result from them as actually occured.
25 - About as difficult to prove as the allegations that Harding was inducted into the KKK. There is more substance to him having conducted extra-marital business in a Whitehouse cupboard though.
I feel you’re being a tad harsh on him anyway, he did give the world the word ‘normalcy’.
tpfkar @ 23 re Obama’s religion.
In a country where politicians “don’t do God”, Obama’s web page on his Christianity is startling, and his denials of Islam might not go down too well.
http://www.barackobama.com/factcheck/2007/11/12/obama_has_never_been_a_muslim_1.php
And there’s more:
http://faith.barackobama.com/page/content/faithhome
Of course, it is all about perception. In 1980, Ronald Reagan, who knew the inside of a church only from weddings and funerals, captured the Christian vote from Jimmy Carter who taught Sunday School even while President.
And in this GOP race, Ron Paul has suggested there are echoes of fascism in Huckabee’s appeals.
If Romney does win it will be because Republicans are doing what the Tories did at first after 1997, going for “conservatives” (with a small ‘c’) because they’re delluded they don’t need to appeal to people more in the centre.
seanT- it must be very difficult contending with your brain. Once you come up with an idea, no matter how ridiculous, you stick with it come what may.
Caroline Flint is on Sky News now and says ‘you know’ more often than Becks. But more interestingly, she appears to be sporting a black eye? What’s up with that?
Skybet have McCain at 2.37 for the Flordia Primary. Which given he now has the endorsements of the Governor and the one Republican Senator looks value to me… (And even if you disagree you can lay it off on betfair at about 1.9)
33, perhaps she forgot her police protection when kebab-hunting?
I’m surprised that more hasn’t been made about the accuracy (or otherwise) of the polls in South Carolina. They were dreadful; at least as bad as in New Hampshire. The only difference is that this time, by underestimating Obama rather than Clinton, the predicted candidate won.
Still, this is the second time that the polls have been out on the margin by over 10% which is a serious error. That’s going to make predicting the Florida result even more difficult. Even so, I still expect Clinton to get the nomination, and have switched my betting accordingly (whoever said that Clinton’s odds haven’t drifted after SC is wrong by the way - they have moved out a little).
re 26. I am looking at Romney solely from the betting angle - not on what I personally want.
Anybody see the Mingster on Marr’s show?
I think there are two Mings. One is the articulate, witty, incisive politican we saw for many years, and we saw today. The other is the bumbling one who was party leader.
Anyway - he’s not standing down from Parliament, and he is writing a book, on the For Affairs Select Ctte, and doing more QC work.
Mike - this thing about the GOP hierarchy favouring Romney seems to be called into question by the backing McCain has just received from the GOP governer of Florida. Both CNN and Fox were calling this a huge move last night
My gut feeling is that having two fairly polarised Dem candidates is really creating interest. This should serve whosoever gets the nomination very well, and it will help Dem turnout come November. The same of course may be true for the Republicans…
37. So you’re saying McCain has none and the fact he’s still ahead in the national polls is meaningless? Surely those Republicans can see how old he is at the moment….
33- I have a habit of saying “you know”, especially when under pressure, meetings, presentations. Irritates the hell out of me.
29. Yes he did, but as HL Mencken said of his speeches..”It reminds me of a string of wet sponges; it reminds me of tattered washing on the line; it reminds me of stale bean soup, of college yells, of dogs barking idiotically through endless nights. It is so bad that a sort of grandeur creeps into it. It drags itself out of the dark abysm of pish, and crawls insanely up the topmost pinnacle of posh. It is rumble and bumble. It is flap and doodle. It is balder and dash.”
Listen for yourself…
http://www.earthstation1.com/History/Readjustment_Harding_1920.wav
SeanT. If Mike ever chooses to start a competition for most ridiculous post of the year I don’t think he’ll need look further than your post at 27 and it’s only January . (You could add it to your coveted ‘Worst Sex in a book’ which I believe you scooped last year -or was it the last several years?)
It’s so full of factual and other inaccuracies and contradictions that it’s difficult to know where to start…….
4. JJ. I’ll try!
40 - given a choice between the two parties, the Dem nomination is the one that always gets the headlines right now.
My own gut feeling come November is whoever can mobilise their support best, and who can keep their crazies quietest.
(44 - Roger, did you get my e-mail? Great to meet you at last!)
44. Roger. Oh dear. You were simply wrong about Tory support for Obama - yet you can’t admit it. Here’s the link, get your reading glasses out:
http://tinyurl.com/2q6×6b
32. What would you say if a Republican opponent of Obama:
Used pushpolling where they asked “would you vote for Barack HUSSEIN Obama”?
Was associated with smearing emails, mentioning Obama’s drug use?
Or went on about his afro hair, like another Clintonite?
Or take prominent Clinton supporter Kerrey, an ex senator from Nebraska, who said this in December (I quote from the New York Times):
“The fact that he’s African-American is a big deal. I do expect and hope that Hillary is the nominee of the party. But I hope he’s used in some way. If he happens to be the nominee of the party and ends up being president, I think his capacity to influence in a positive way . . . the behavior of a lot of underperforming black youth today is very important, and he’s the only one who can reach them.”
Kerrey continued: “It’s probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim. There’s a billion people on the planet that are Muslims, and I think that experience is a big deal.”
The Clinton camp is trying to slime Obama. If this bilge was coming from a rightwinger the left would be up in arms. But coz its your beloved Bill n Hillary,somehow this subtle race-baiting is OK.
Physician, heal thyself.
Hmm… Not sure if that tinyurl worked…
Try this maybe:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/01/27/wuspols327.xml
I did an ad for BA in California using one of the top US college American footballers. His running trainer and minder for the shoot turned out to be one of the men who stood on the podium and gave a black power salute at one of the Olympic games. I can’t remember speaking to someone more embittered.
He said that during the games the black and white athletes were segregated with the white ones having bedrooms and the black ones living communally in a gymnasium. I think the problem of race goes much deeper in the States than we over here appreciate. To say Hillary is mischievously drawing attention to it is frankly ridiculous.
Hain’s bid marred by chaos and in-fighting
By Patrick Hennessy and Melissa Kite
Last Updated: 1:29am GMT 27/01/2008
OT,but thankfully he now has nothing to do with the government,even his closest political allies weren’t impressed,apparently his ego got in the way,there’s a surprise.
Reading 47 also explains why Roger excuses Hain from accepting money from Isaac Kaye who helped bankroll apartheid.
It was done in secret and Hain is a lefty, therefore immune from criticism.
46. (JohnO. I didn’t get it! Have you got the right email address?
Can you get it from Mike or PtP?)
49. Oh dear, again.
I apologise for the length of this post, and I promise it is my last for a few hours, coz I have yet to write my thriller chapter for the day.
But here is a smear email sent by a Clinton co-ordinator during her Iowa campaign. The Clinton camapaigner was caught forwarding the email, and had to resign.
Here it is:
“If you do not ever forward anything else, please forward
this to all your contacts…this is very scary to think of what lies ahead of us here in our own United States…better heed this and pray about it and share it.
THIS DEFINITELY WARRANTS LOOKING INTO. THIS COUNTRY WAS
FOUNDED, ‘ONE NATION UNDER GOD’. ALMIGHTY GOD, NOT THE GOD OF THE
KORAN.
We checked this out on ’snopes.com’. It is factual.
Check for yourself.
Who is Barack Obama?
Probable U. S. presidential candidate, Barack Hussein
Obama was born in Honolulu , Hawaii , to Barack Hussein Obama,
Sr., a black MUSLIM from Nyangoma-Kogel , Kenya and Ann Dunham, a white ATHEIST from Wichita , Kansas .
Obama’s parents met at the University of Hawaii . When Obama was two years old, his parents divorced. His father returned to
Kenya . His mother then married Lolo Soetoro, a RADICAL Muslim from
Indonesia . When Obama was 6 years old, the family relocated to
Indonesia . Obama attended a MUSLIM school in Jakarta . He also
spenttwo years in a Catholic school.
Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a
Muslim. He is quick to point out that, ‘He was once a Muslim,
but that he also attended Catholic school.’
Obama’s political handlers are attempting to make it appear that Obama’s introduction to Islam came via his father, and that
this influence was temporary at best. In reality, the senior Obama
returned to Kenya soon after the divorce, and never again had any
direct influence over his son’s education.
Lolo Soetoro, the second husband of Obama’s mother, Ann
Dunham, introduced his stepson to Islam Obama was enrolled in a
Wahabi school in Jakarta .
Wahabism is the RADICAL teaching that is followed by the
Muslim terrorists who are now waging Jihad against the western
world.
Since it is politically expedient to be a CHRISTIAN when seeking
major public office in the United States , Barack Hussein Obama has
joined the United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background.
ALSO, keep in mind that when he was sworn into office he DID NOT
use the Holy Bible, but instead the Koran (Their equivalency to our
Bible, but very different beliefs)
Let us all remain alert concerning Obama’s expected presidential candidacy.
The Muslims have said they plan on destroying the U.S. from the inside out, what better way to start than at the highest level
- through the President of the United States , one of their own!!!!
Please forward to everyone you know. Would you want this
man leading our country?…… NOT ME!!!
47 — the bizarre thing is that being called muslim is regarded as a smear. In this country, it would simply be mistaken, as if someone said he was left-handed (or right-handed, as the case may be). It might be different if he were running for Pope.
And here is Chris Rock backing Obama, and suggesting (at the beginning) that Black voters should not support the “white woman”.
Physician, heal thyself indeed.
Frankly, it is hard to see what all the fuss is about. Any Americans who don’t already know Clinton is a woman and Obama is Black probably can’t find their way to a polling booth in any case.
54 — forgot the link!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PW7EbURS2h4
(JohnO. It’s arrived! Thanks very much. I’ll reply later….there’s something else I wanted going to ask you……!)
PS JohnO. You’re my proof that I don’t use a zimmer frame
(Roger - I’ll stand by my bed!
)
57 - Well, you kept it well-hidden if you had! And a pox on Pot and Kettle. Roger is now an official pbc protected species.
47.
The campaign in South Carolina did step over the line in some of the push polling MODERATED…………………………….
Meanwhile back at City Hall it’s biz as usual: Ethnic bank fraud police quiz, no less!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/mayors-ethnic-bank-in-fraud-quiz-774665.html
It’s going to be very interesting to see how this story developes?
As it involves both colour and gender, Iain Dale has already commented. The MoS seems to be running an anti-Cameroon story every Sunday!!
http://tinyurl.com/2t7nnv
60 Err. I think remarks like that have legal ramifications and prompt deletion maybe necessary by Mr Smithson
55 - I find Chris Rock’s routine quite compelling and amusing. But when he says “that white woman”, how does he get away with it? What would happen if a Clinton cheerleader referred to Obama in a speech as “that black man”?
Would you want this
man leading our country?…… NOT ME!!!
I would prefer Obama to lead our country than for him to lead Sean T. Is there leather or chain strong enough?
62. …and you faithfully report them on this site, over and over again, to universal indifference.
43: I prefer the description of Harding’s oratory as an “army of pompous phrases moving across the landscape in search of an idea”.
Come to think of it, sounds like Blair.
66
Could be another Tony Lit?
“Mrs Grant is the daughter of a white English mother and Nigerian father”
Our own Obama in skirts?
I understand that Harding entered the convention in sixth place and was a compromise candidate.
63.
Sorry, I meant Cameron’s alleged drug use (which he refused to deny). Obama admitted in his autobiography that he has used cociane so I don’t see any problem with my post. Given that large numbers of posters here have made allegations about Labour party figures (which were later proven to be rubbish) over the past twelve months I smell more than a whiff of hypocrisy.
50.
“A senior party source said he had “serious concerns” that both Mr Hain, who resigned last week as Work and Pensions Secretary, and Labour’s former general secretary Peter Watt, who quit in the wake of the donorgate revelations, would be charged. ” Telegraph
Is this a damage-limitation campaign to Save Phil Woolas from going down with Hain? To lose on minister is careless. . . .
70. Yes, he emerged from the original “smoke-filled room”, and went on to win the Presidency by the first real landslide. It was the women’s vote that swung it for him. Harding was a noted supporter of women’s suffrage (as well as a ladies’ man)…
We have not had an opinion poll yet showing the effect (if any?) of Florida Governor Crist’s McCain endorsement yesterday. the US press seems to think this could be crucial in giving campaign that little bit extra to win in Florida.
73 - the reason I am interested in Harding is that I read about him in Malcolm Gladwell’s “Blink” - this morning in fact. He apparently looked as if he was made to be president - but was hopeless. He is therefore a counter argument to gut instinct being right.
InsiderAdvantage seem the only ones with daily Florida polling (McCain/Romney/Giuliani/Preacher Mike/Paul):
InsiderAdvantage 01/25 - 01/25 692 LV 24 26 16 15 7 Romney +2.0
InsiderAdvantage 01/24 - 01/24 420 LV 23 23 16 13 7 Tie
InsiderAdvantage 01/23 - 01/23 501 LV 23 22 18 16 4 McCain +1.0
InsiderAdvantage 01/20 - 01/21 512 LV 18 24 19 12 7 Romney +5.0
InsiderAdvantage 01/15 - 01/16 446 LV 20 20 21 13 6 Giuliani +1.0
Question is whether that last 26 for Romney is a slight error, as the previous three showed little movement.
73 and 75- there is a very readable and entertaining novel, Carter vs the Devil (if I remember rightly) that features the death of Harding as a central theme.
I was watching CNN yesterday and there was a lot of talk of Romney being the ‘Stop McCain’ candidate for the Republican establishment, now that Guiliani is fading.
Is Gordon Brown coping with the stress of the job? This morning he came out with this gem of wisdom about inflation - “It’s all the more remarkable that inflation generally is low, when you have, as everybody acknowledges, rising food prices round the world and rising oil and commodity prices.”
It might be time for the opposition to resurrect the old campaign ads comparing the price of groceries…
75/77. There was a recent book by John “Watergate” Dean that had some success in re-habilitating Harding…
http://www.amazon.com/Warren-G-Harding-American-Presidents/dp/0805069569/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1201438754&sr=1-1
John , a pox on you as well. It was after Roger that smeared a well known business man (born 1945) whom he claimed was a contemporary at millfield.
Strnage how Roger says what he likes and some of you think that he is a kind of sage, instead of being the self hating, rich, middle class pseud that he comes over as.
RE 71. Matthew - anything that has looked defamatory I moderate and delete.
Please could you point me to the posts you mention and I will take action.
81 - Being somewhat vertically challenged, I guess it would have to be small pox. As all at Friday’s party will testify, Roger personally is a delight…and I don’t know where you get all this self-hating nonsense. And of course, in you, he has his very own personalised stalker. Some of us are insanely jealous.
79. If anything, the food in this country is too cheap. Many of the staples are sold as loss-leaders by the supermarkets which, in turn, puts immense pressure on farming income.
Interesting McCain’s lack of assets. Obviously his definition of serving his country (and the torture that went with it), is a little different to some of ours who see it as a meal ticket.
He may not be in the big league with Romney in the money stakes but he’s not poor
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/moneymag/0712/gallery.candidates.moneymag/4.html
85. It’s obviously a mistake. According to CNBC John McCain paid $3 million dollars for his home in a gated community:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22577695/
84 - “Let them eat cake”?
87. Might be a trust.
I was surprised to see Crist endorse McCain and it certainly was orchestrated rather well - getting max coverage on CNN etc. due to the Dem South Carolina primary.
McCain also did a hit job on Romney yesterday with regard to Iraq, stating something that was false, which even the media have attacked McCain on. It was below the belt to say the least. McCain needs the focus to be on anything other than the Economy because that is Romney’s strength.
This all tells me that Romney is ahead in Florida and possibly more than we thought. I think McCain is getting a little desperate, and it’s no coincidence that we had the Iraq Hit Job on Romney and then the Crist endorsement the same day.
Obviously Romney’s message focusing on the Economy is working. I think McCain will get a boost from the Crist endorsement due to Crist’s popularity but how much, time will tell.
Intrade certainly went wild on the endorsement initially with a big movement to McCain but now seems to of stabilised.
I’m wondering what Romney could do to negate the Crist endorsement and the only thing I can think of is if Jeb Bush came out and endorsed Romney on Monday. Just a thought. Jeb Bush is extremely popular in Florida and some of his people already work for Romney.
As for Giuliani well he is clearly in freefall and his strategy looking doomed. Also, Crist is a moderate which means some of the supporters that Giuliani has left would be more inclined to switch to McCain. Interesting that Crist apparently was on the verge of endorsing Giuliani recently…
90 - What happened to those Mason Dixon polls in South Carolina then?
[84] 79. If anything, the food in this country is too cheap. Many of the staples are sold as loss-leaders by the supermarkets which, in turn, puts immense pressure on farming income.
Yes, farmers receive no subsidies whatsoever, whether from the EU or anywhere else. Also, the gap between the rich and the poor in this country is scandalously small, whether you compare us with America or Russia.
53 Yes, sean, but keep your feet a bit on the ground, please! Wahhabism is the branch of Islam espoused by the leading and royal families in Saudi Arabia anyway. It is hardly surprising that Bin Laden also comes from that tradition as he is from one of the top families in Saudi. Surely this plays back into the whole “How close to the Bin ladens are the Bushes?” agenda, run by, among others Michael Moore? No one has yet officially tried to ban or outlaw the Wahhabism of the Saudi royals. And, althoiugh you describe Barack Obama’s stepfather as a radical Muslim, have you any evidence that he has translated his “radicalism” (ie conservatism) into violent action?
70/75/77 interesting looking documentary on Harding..
http://www.americanpresidents.org/ram/amp092099.ram
86. Just had a look at these - I find it amusing that Fred Thompson earned vastly more pretending to be a public servant (the DA in ‘Law and Order’) than he earned when he was a real-life Senator.
91 - Mason Dixon had Obama +8 and all the other pollsters anywhere up to +15. Obama won by about +28, routing Clinton. Unfortunately no pollster got the percentage win right but they all did get the winner right! Which is rather important if your betting!
I do wish that Mason would do some of their polling closer to the actual day. Sometimes they do but it seems to vary depending on the state. I think this poll was for 23 Jan.
71 I simply wanted to ensure that Mr Smithson doesn’t risk even remotely getting anything in the neck for you
44. Roger, you doddery old duffer, the award I won wasn’t the “Worst Sex in A Book”, it was for “Bad Sex in Literature”. And I didn’t win last year, I won in 2001, and was given the prestigious prize by Mick Jagger himself.
Did I deserve to win?
Peebles will have to judge for themselves. I’d post the “offending” passage here, but this is a family blog. Sorta. So here’s a link:
http://tinyurl.com/yobav6
BE WARNED. This is not your average Sunday reading.
75 Yes in the ST today they said that if Romney wins Florida and Huckabee and Guiliani stagger on picking up handfuls of delegates in the hope of a deal, then it could be the most riotous GOP convention since the one that nominated Harding where delegates were undecided after ten ballots, and Harding was eventually picked over a drunken game of Cards by GOP Senators. Do GOP Senators still play Card games
Interesting to see that Obama has not been beaten by Hillary in terms of delegates. Despite less votes in NH he equalled her in delegates and in NV he actually got one more.
On the Latino-Black thing Obama was only 6 points behind Hillary in Nevada (with a large Latino population) compared to the thumping Hillary took in SC. So if the Clinton strategy is to drive non-black voters into their hands it doesn’t look like it is working.
I asked before but no one seemed to reply. Who is this general who has decided toenter the GOP race and who would a former US miltary man hurt most?
A new thread linked to pictures from Friday’s party is now up.
Extremely O/T
Speaking of money,mine is on “Sizing Europe” for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.
Stan James are still offering 4/1 but this will not last long.
Over to Ptp.