Is this now a clash of the Democratic Dynasties?
January 28th, 2008
How will Kennedy’s endorsement affect the race?
The excellent US Politico site is reporting that a major battle has been going on between the Obama and Clinton camps over plans by Ted Kennedy to appear on a platform with Barack Obama today and give his blessing to the Illinois senator in the fight for the Democratic nomination.
The importance of the move can be measured by the efforts that the Clinton campaign has made to try to stop Kennedy making such a move. There have been personal pleas from the ex–president himself as well as “a flood of phone calls to Kennedy from sources ranging from union chiefs to his Massachusetts constituents.”
ABC News has been characterising this as “the clash of Dynasties - giving this a personal edge that will ensure further coverage for the second favourite as the campaign goes into its next stage.
Assessing the impact Politico notes - “The embrace provides a dramatic rocket for Obama to ride into the frantic, nationwide campaigning ahead of the spate of Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, the biggest day for nominating contests in U.S. history. Caroline Kennedy, the senator’s niece and the daughter of President John F. Kennedy, will also appear at the rally, the sources said. Democrats said the endorsement will help Obama with traditional Democratic groups where Clinton has been strong — union households, Hispanics and downscale workers.”
In the betting the Obama price has tightened a touch to 1.88/1 while Clinton has move a notch to 0.53/1. So a winning £100 bet on the President’s spouse would have produced a £45 profit last week - today that stands at £53.
Personally I find this a very difficult betting call to make. I want Obama to win but I am only too conscious of the danger of letting my own desires affect my judgement. Sporting Index now have a spread market on the election which is where some of my money is going. I think the firm is over-valuing Hillary and sell price seems the best bet about.
Judging by the published amounts being traded on Betfair almost all the activity in political markets at the moment is focussed on the US and my guess is that will continue to be the case - certainly until the aftermath of Super Tuesday.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Obama certainly has the momentum now, but campaigning on a national level is a different task to the state-by-state campaigns so far. People in the Super Tuesday states won’t be paying quite as much attention as those who have had their state’s name in the spotlight in the leadup to each primary so far. This is where Obama’s financial muscle needs to come in. I’m in Illinois and I’ve seen the same ad for him a couple of times in the last few days, which contains mainly clips of his DNC speech a few years back. Yet to see anything of Clinton’s, but this is Obama’s home state and she might have given up on persuading anyone than her loyal supporters anyway.
Sad news for Mormons: their current Prophet (the LDS’ equivalent of Pope) has just died. Chance for Romney to act Presidential and win sympathy? Or would he rather keep his faith out of the headlines?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22873523/
Anyone know where we might be able to find demographic data about likely Democratic voters? Seems to me that there are three ways Obama might be able to win this:
a) Somehow breaking through and appealing to old / white / uneducated voters in a way that he hasn’t up until now.
b) Massive, unprecedented turnout of the groups he’s been able to reach so far: young voters, educated voters and black voters.
c) The Clinton campaign, overwhelmed by all this Momentum we keep hearing about, reaches some kind of tipping point and implodes.
(c) has seemed very unlikely since New Hampshire. What I’m not sure is how big an ask (a) is; Are there enough young and black voters that, were he able to get them to turn out, he could win? Or is Obama finished unless he can seriously broaden his appeal? (In which case we’ll be seeing a lot more of the Kennedies in the next couple of weeks…)
3. Obama has already broken through to white voters in Iowa, and also NH and NV. People should realise that the groups Obama wins, he wins big, and the groups Clinton wins, are usually won by small amounts. Most important for Obama is to get the aged 30-50 vote. Do that and he’ll get the nomination.
I also imagine he’s going to have to get those prominent Hispanic Americans that have endorsed him to speak out more for him. He can potentially lessen Clinton’s advantage among that group, in a way Clinton can’t now do to Obama’s among African Americans.
“Let the word go forth from this time and place, to friend and foe alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans” - JFK inaugral address, 1961
“As he said many times, in many parts of this nation, to those he touched and who sought to touch him: ‘Some men see things as they are and ask why. I dream things that never were and say why not.’”
Ted’s eulogy to RFK, 1968
Ted’s endorsement of Barack Obama, born 1961, is rich in symbolism… It will resonate all the way to the convention, and beyond….
ding dong! the Witch is dead!
Surely, surely this kind of headline only benefits McCain? After all not only is he the front-runner in the GOP nomination race, but he is also specifically the type of candidate seen to be above such dynastic clashes. Obama should be careful what he wishes for: an endorsement by the Kennedy clan finally swallows him into the Beltway for good and parts him permanently from those who wished to see him as the outsider.
I’m going to ration my Obama comments, lest I be accused of ramping. As far as Romney goes, he will benefit from this unfortunate news, as the LDS leader is being presented as a modernizer and a good man. His negatives should weaken, which is very good for him as they’re higher than they should be, and more importantly to do well amongst older folks, which is critical in Florida.
And there’s another thing - this guy was 97. A distinguished leader dieing of old age after battling cancer and diabetes may turn some away from McCain, although I admit this idea is a bit of a stretch.
I await Romney’s sombre statement with interest.
RodCrosby@5: “ding dong! the Witch is dead!”
That’s what you said last time…
But here’s the video, anyhow…
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=McHyLKw5mHc
At this stage I think the best we can do is:
Ding dong! The witch is trading at odds that do not adequately reflect the strength of her opposition and the uncertainties inherent in the nomination process!
I think that’s what they’re saying in this version:
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=oup6CsKZYTA&NR=1
Some Kennedys are endorsing Clinton. Its not the clash of the dynasties its a dispute within one.
Incidentally, Matt Drudge is currently running:
“Kennedy For Obama: Intends to campaign aggressively with Western trip this week, followed by appearances in Northeast… Kennedy upset over attempts by Clinton campaign to highlight Obama’s race and distortions of statements, record… made views known in call with former president…. Developing…”
Notwithstanding the fact that with Drudge “Developing” is often another word for “Made up”, there have been a few suggestions in the blogosphere over the past week that the Clintons’ tactics have alienated sections of the Democratic Party establishment that had previously been backing Hillary. If true, this could be very significant, bearing in mind that:
a) A lot of these establishment figures are superdelegates.
b) The establishment candidate always wins.
I will point out that Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean last time and it got Howard Dean nowhere. I am wary of endorsement politics, I don’t think you can say to people ‘you like me, I like X therefore you must like X’, people have to make up their own minds. A lot of Obama’s support seems to be coming from independents and Republican leaning areas etc, I wonder if being endorsed by the uberist uber liberal in US politics will depress that somewhat.
11. I agree, endorsements don’t change peoples minds. But what they DO do, if they are big enough, is to get voters to take a closer look at a candidate. Obama is a talented enough politician to get people to like him once they have paid close attention, and these endorsements would limit Clinton’s head start in the recognition stakes.
12 - what endorsements also do is affect the media’s perception of a candidate. Ted Kennedy probably doesn’t garner many votes for BHO but the fact that the press think its important means they start to give Obama momentum. This momentum then makes real people more likely to vote for him. Endorsements don’t change the fundamentals but they do change the speculation, which itself changes the fundamentals.
11/12/13. One amiable but wooden ex-VP endorsing a eccentric nonentity like Dean has all the force of a damp squib…
Kennedy(s) endorsing Obama is….ATOMIC FUSION!!!
Rod is either ramping or is in mickey taking mode.
Edmund in Tokyo @ 10 notes the effect on super-delegates which is what matters to punters.
O/T
Difficult to see “Our Gord” weathering this storm.
IMHO he will be out sooner than the bookies think.
Pile in while the odds are attractive !!
UK economy ‘at risk of recession’
The UK economy is set to experience its weakest period of growth in 15 years and there is a risk of a recession in the next two years, a report warns.
The Deloitte Economic Review said that the housing market would be at the heart of the downturn, with prices falling by about 5% this year.
14. 15. Very entertaining!
17 - Two things. Firstly, Brown will not call an election before 2010 unless he is absolutely bloody certain he’ll win. October 07 was his best chance and he blew it. Labour MPs will not force out Brown before then. If there is economic turbulence, the only way Labour can win is by being more trusted in turmoil, like the Tories in 92. Brown is their only link to that. Many of the NuLab big names have gone and Gordo is the only one, apart from Straw left. Perversely, the down turn may work moderately in Brown’s favour. He’s not as hated as we like to think.
17. More relevant to Labour’s chances than phantom recessions is this article by Polly T which hits the nail on the head. It’s a couple of days old but if like me Gordon missed it he should read it now and act-or he we’ll all be forced to vote for shiny the moon faced one.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2246743,00.html
19 - “He’s not as hated as we like to think.”
No, not yet. But there are two - possibly three - budgets between now and a 2010 election.
The first one is only seven or eight weeks away and that, on its own, will be worth another two point decline in Labour’s polling figures.
20 - crumbs.
If Polly Toynbee is hanging up her Go Gordon pom-poms, who’s going to be the Supreme Leader’s chief media cheerleader now?
19.
Perhaps we may see the knockout blow delivered to “Gordon Bean”/”Del Boy” or whatever his name is at this weeks PMQ’s.
He is on the ropes as far as the UK economy is concerned and when the Stock Market here carries on sliding the “men in grey suits” will have a word in “Del Boys” ear.
11 Yes, it can be double-edged, James, but on this occasion I suspect there’s more upside than down. The efforts the Clintonistas made to prevent it are a fair enough indication.
It was a great pleasure to meet you at the party and I hope we’ll see you again at some future functions, for which plans are already afoot. I notice however that you barely feature in the photographs, so for the benefit of readers who were unable to attend, I hope you won’t mind me pointing out that all they have to do is imagine a young Bryan Ferry.
All the best.
23, perhaps. There’s an interesting divergence between the blues and the reds when it comes to ditching leaders. Labour leaders cannot be removed by a simple mechanism, whereas Tory leaders (as IDS found to his cost) can be, by the sinisterly nicknamed ‘men in grey suits’ (the 1922 Committee).
If Brown doesn’t want to go he can’t be forced, short of a Cabinet resigning en mass in protest, which won’t happen. If there’s one way Labour have been better than the Tories in recent times it’s at presenting a united front.
Interesting article by Cohen, on the far right in Sussex. Particularly interesting as it gives PB and Sean Fear a plug!
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,,2247662,00.html
20. Oh dear - even the luvvies and Hampstead lefties sticking the knives in. Property prices on the Cote d’Azur/Tuscany must be wobbling. Sell GB weeks.
I am impressed by Obama. He speaks inspirationally. Similarly. I was impressed by TB–he comes over very well. IB’a problem was it was all too good to be true. Sure enough, the gap between what he said and what happened was massive almost from the start. It was no suprise to see him win in 1997, but to do nearly as well in 2001 unexpected, and to win easily again in 2005—well, weren’t the voters paying attention? Understood, these second two wins were against uninspiring tory leaders.
But thats the point. The ability to inspire is the key strength of a leader.
Hillary as POTUS will be satisfactory, and competent. But as an inspiring leader of the free world? The polls tell me to ignore all that, and back her at 1/2. It just feels too short a price for a candidate who is merely adequate.
re 20 Roger - I think that you are being very unfair to Gordon raising Polly’s article which came on Friday. What really gets her are social justice issues and what has really concerned her the CGT tax changes as well the IHT ones announced last October.
Like the Guardian’s other leading women columnist, Jackie Ashley, - she was a great GB supporter - once.
Gordon’s paramount priority is to win a majority at the next election and people like Polly Toynbee have to recognise that polices are going to have to be tailored if Labour is to succeed.
re 25. I think there is a mechanism with Labour’s rules for a ballot to be held on the leader provided 12.5% of the MPs support one.
Within the Tory party I think that 25 MPs are required sign a request for a confidence vote. IDS was not removed by the “men in grey suits” but by a vote of his parliamentary colleagues.
All this Gordon going misses the point. I doubt he will lose a single vote because of his likability /dislikability (or should that be his dislikeableness?).
It all hinges on what he does and therein lies the problem. It’s all there chapter and verse in Polly’s polemic. So stop wasting your time looking at his fingernails and listen to what he says. As a Chines philosopher once said ‘When someone points to the moon-only a fool looks at the finger’.
24 - I am reminded though with Obama of the Portillo leadership bid here where everyone that was anyone jumped on the Portillo bandwagon and still he lost. I still think Clinton has the edge in terms of Super Tuesday and that it was always going to be hard to push your way into the campaign at that juncture if you were not in it before. Giuliani is finding that out to his cost, of course Obama has a shot but I just think he is at a disadvantage even with everything else I guess that whilst Super Tuesday may not completely decide the matter it will be fairly certain aftewards.
I don’t mind the comparison at all. I would certainly turn up again, as it was a good evening and good to get acquainted with the faces behind the views etc.
(Really OT! Does anyone have a bank account with Barclays? If so they’ll know about this calculator-like machine that is now necessary to access your account online. My question is how does it work? I can’t see how the random numbers it throws up can be read by the bank).
Kennedy endorsing Obama is a nice boost for him. Rod goes too far calling it “atomic fusion” but equally James B is understating it by comparing it to people endorsing Portillo. The people backing Portillo (or Davis last time out say) were basically a bunch of here today, gone tomorrow nobodies. Kennedy remains an iconic figure for many tribal Democrats (and remember Clinton is meant to be the candidate for the tribe while Obama is meant to appeal to independents).
As a Clinton supporter, I agree with the general consensus above that the odds - which I think reflect a general once-bitten fear after New Hampshire - don’t reflect Obama’s chances adequately. The two candidates should be about evens.
Herbert Proper jr at 23: um, the belief that a decline in share prices will result in Labour ‘men in grey suits’ removing the Prime Minister doesn’t, with respect, reflect detailed knowledge of how the Labour party thinks and works.
[29] Roger’s linked to Polly Toynbee’s article to-day because he hadn’t read it before I suggested at the party that he might like to!
Mike, I’d like to be sure I’ve understood your comment aright. Are you saying that a party that stands foursquare for social justice is bound to lose an election? (The SNP, for one, might disagree!) “Policies are going to have to be tailored” is so ambiguous that I don’t understand what you’re trying to say.
Hillary Clinton is chucking this away…
1/ Her husband has pi$$ed off a lot of people with his interference, and YouTube hits of his chat with ABC have been going ballistic. That could have been enough to swing it towards Obama.
The ‘down and dirty’ approach has already been conceded by Hillary to be a vote loser, and I think they’ve realised they’ve damaged their brand [possibly irreparably] by playing the race card.
2/ The ‘crocodile tears’ saved her once, but they can’t really be used again, and they could come back to haunt her.
3/ Once the Kennedys have given their endorsement, and if Oprah gives a boost just before Super Tuesday, then it could really swing the contest wide open.
4/ Hillary’s shrill voice, and the fact that she is almost as long winded as our famous ‘kinnockio’ leads me to believe that the US electorate will tire of her schoolmarmish approach a long time before polling day.
However, as Tiger Woods didn’t say.. Super Tuesday is just the drive - there is whole lot of putting going on before the ball is in the hole’.
23 - who could these men in grey suits be? And who’s the saviour successor? It just seems like wishful thinking to me.
I don’t think it’s correct to call the Clintons a dynasty. They’re more like a political team, but I can’t see the line continuing once Billary’s career is over.
32 Sorry Roger, I’m puzzled. I do have an online account with Barclays, but so far I have noted no change in the method of accessing my overdraft.
I think it’s fair to say that Hillary must be very worried right now. Her early momentum looked promising but the first signs of a serious fightback are starting to emerge. The racial polarisation was very interesting in this last contest as well.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
34 What arrogance, Dr Palmer.
What on earth makes you think you have a more “…detailed knowledge of how the Labour party thinks and works” than our Herbert?
31 Yes, James B, I’m not really at odds with this view. In fact I’ve been saying for a long time that I thought Hillary would win in the end but she’d have to fight hard and the odds didn’t reflect the difficulty (except, briefly, after Iowa when Obamania was rife.)
At the current odds (1.6 or thereabouts), I would just about be a layer. When her price touches 1.8, as it may well do, I would start backing again.
(Nobody’s likely to compare me with Bryan Ferry, in his youth or dotage.
)
35. IA. It was good meeting you the other night and thanks for the Polly story. If you had a similar conversation with Nick P I’m sure he’ll be filling in job applications as we speak!
41.
Ptp I am most grateful for your support,however I presently wear one of my own.
Extract from Yesterday’s Politics Show,no doubt it will re-appear at PMQ’s.
Here’s the transcript. He’s lost it… (Gord that is!!!!)
QUOTE
JON SOPEL: So, there won’t be a recession.
GORDON BROWN: Well, our aim is to, to keep the economy growing as… and (interjection)
JON SOPEL: Do you think there’s a risk, because we’ve heard people like George Soros, here, in the past few days (interjection)
GORDON BROWN: I think George Soros is actually talking about America. I think what he’s saying is that the American economy. Look, there are probably one and a half million homes in America, who are affected directly by what’s happening in the mortgage market. Probably for them, because short term mortgage rates have changed, the rates have gone up by 20 to 30%, so there will be a lot of repossessions in the States. The housing market is… He’s worried about what’s happening there. Now in Britain, we are saying, as you know, that inflation is low, interest rates are low and we expect there to be growth.
JON SOPEL: No risk of a recession then.
GORDON BROWN: Well, we expect there to be growth. I wouldn’t (laughs) I wouldn’t say that, that with low inflation, with low interest rates, we expect the economy to be more stable and growing, but undoubtedly, we are effected by what’s happening in the rest of the world.
JON SOPEL: I want to keep this focused on what’s happening in Britain, and people watching this, because I wonder whether they think that they live in a low inflation economy when they see what’s happened to annual food price inflation - 7.4%: petrol products rising by 20%, rail fares for example, up by nearly 7% (interjection)
GORDON BROWN: It’s all the more remarkable that inflation generally is low, when you have, as everybody acknowledges, rising food prices round the world and rising oil and commodity prices. So nobody is trying to suggest that we haven’t had a big problem with oil prices. Oil prices have hit almost 100 dollars. Nobody is suggesting we don’t have a problem with food prices, because round the round, because of bad harvest, because of other factors at work - demand and supply, food prices are growing. Now, it’s therefore remarkable, but unlike the ’70s and the ’80s and the ’90s (interjection)
42 - We need to think of a better person as comparison for you maybe.
Slightly OT, but this did make me smile today
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article732401.ece
Courtesy Iain Dale
46 - Well I think we can all agree that will make zero effect on his chances!
39. PtP. Good to meet you the other night and Brian Ferry lookalike or not you make a fine host! (A thin Bernard Delfont perhaps?)
I’m surprised you haven’t been sent one of these gadgets. They gave a few weeks grace but now it’s only possible to use their online services using this little contraption. Maybe I’ll ask the bank. It really is intriguing.
McCain appears to have benefitted from the Crist endorsement. He is now 3 percentage points ahead in the latest Zogby poll. Was this endorsement the defining moment in this campaign?
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2428418520080128
44
49 - the Crist endorsement is very important because the governor of Florida helped George W to win twice and the new governor can help McCain win in Florida. Crist is lining himself up to be VP.
48 Good to meet you too, Roger.
I expect the explanation is that Barclays are only worried about accounts with money in.
46 Shouldn’t hurt him. Good job it wasn’t The Orient though.
44. Signs that the men in white coats have been looking for.
Brown’s answers border on the delusional.
49 Thanks Goupillon.
This one is really too tight to call. I have them equally balanced in my book, and I expect them to stay that way until the result is called.
47/53 - just read a comment on a West Ham board that if he becomes President, and the US invades Iran, West Ham will get blamed for it and the Sheff Utd chairman will want them relegated.
Agree it’ll mean absolutely nothing to your average Super Tuesday voter, although it would be funny if it did
56 If the US invades Iran, A&D, West Ham will do what they usually do - claim it was offside.
Not often I agree with Nick P, but it’ll take more than a recession and falling share prices for the Labour party to remove Gordon Brown.
500 councillor loses (not going to happen) in May might. Ken losing to Boris wouldn’t (would GB celebrate?!!) Been at 27% in the polls for 8 months may do it. The mood music coming out from the labour benches does not give an indication of a party in mutiny ala the Tories in the 90’s.
44. Does Brown what happens to the UK price of oil and gas as sterling slides?
57 - They would probably be right, few nations would be onside in that decision!
It is very worring though, that Brown appears to believe that inflation is low. If the bank cuts interests as inflation is rising, then thats just stoking up big problems for the future.
Brown and Darling are writing cheques the country cannot afford.
There’s a joke about Cass Pennant becoming Obama’s running mate, but fear most people won’t get it
59…suggesting that the delusional mindset evident in Brown’s comments at 44. is widespread. Great news.
61 - BAU then!
BAU?
65 - Business as usual
44 “It’s all the more remarkable that inflation generally is low” -when the price of everything that people might buy is going up at double digit rates. So remarkable, that it has become detached from reality…and now can only be properly explained as being “MAGIC!!!!”
Gordon Brown, High Priest of Hoodoo Economics
Talk of Labour replacing Gordon Brown is fantasy at present.
1) There’s no obvious replacement
2) The polls aren’t that bad for them (yet)
3) The opposition parties don’t look that great
If matters deteriorate, the difficulties with the formal mechanism for changing leaders are less relevant than the willingness (or otherwise) of the party heavyweights to strike. If the will was there, I’m sure a health reason could be found for his resignation, and I’m sure that sufficient pressure would persuade him to use it. But barring something pretty extraordinary, I expect Gordon Brown to lead Labour into the next election.
28 david - All the Tory leaders since John Major have had their strengths and weaknesses - I know this is an obvious truism, but I think it counts when assessing the implications of your analysis here.
Hague was one of the wittiest men to lead any political party, and I cannot offhand think of any Tory leader since Churchill (who had a rather heavyweight wit - Hague is much lighter touch) better at engaging people. But he was, unfortunately, perceived as a nerd / obsessive. IDS had the political spirit of his time and was very popular in the party, but was a swivel eyed right winger for all outside the party (unluckily for him, I think he has developed a much more positive side with the electorate as a whole since his demise as leader!). Howard is, of course, regarded as a very nasty man generally (and it is ironic that someone of the character of Ann Widdecombe should publicly identify the ’something of the night’ factor in him!!) He is however, credited with bringing some political discipline back, and putting things in place for a competent campaign in 2001. Cameron is seen as a nice person, and not a hardline Tory, but his downsides of publicly not showing what he believes in, of being somewhat aggressive at PMQs and in other forums where he gets to criticise GB and Labour (esp after his early promises not to engage in that) and, of course, his background.
So the election in 2009 / 10 won’t be against a uniquely inspiring Tory leader, and I think his downsides may still be his undoing. In comparing Cameron and Blair, as so many have done, it is worth saying that although Tories have put huge effort into emphasising how unpopular and disliked GB and Labour are, IMO they are nowhere near as unpopular as the Tories were by the mid 90s. Any Labour Leader (and any Lib Dem Leader) were destined to make substantial gains from them. Blair was not a saint, and not the greatest communicator ever. But Cameron gives off “toff” more strongly than Blair did, and has not got (partly because of that)the self-effacing way that Blair used to wriggle out of things.
Haha very good.
I don’t expect an answer, but here is question for Nick P:
Do you think that inflation is at circa 2% as claimed by the Prime Minister or at circa 4% as experienced by most households in this country?
67 I do wonder sometimes if you blue harpies actually believe all these doom and gloom posts you make on here . Of course there are problems with the economy at the moment but nowhere near unsurmountable with a modicum of good management . You say the price of EVERYTHING people may buy is going up at double digit rates , this is so manifestly false that I wonder whether this is what you really think .
Mark,
A ecconomy that has grown for the last 15 years should a budget surplus, not the massive debt this government has managed.
Is George Soros a blue Harpie? Good to see you avoiding the abuse in your first post. keep it up.
With the democratic candidates polarising their supporters it does mean that when it comes the to the presidential election many democrats will have no appetite for supporting the chosen candidate.
This has to be a boost for the republicans and the long both Clinton and Obama remain in the race, the better McCains chances of a surprise victory.
71 - The problem being that the demands of this modicum of good management would not be politically viable.
Wonderful what you can spot on Conhome, This EDM sponsored by a certain M.Fabricant, (Mickey Fab) yep! you can just imagine him as a trolley dolly!!
http://tinyurl.com/2v3lrv
The man with the dodgy syrup.
Roger et al. Re Barclays PinSentry…
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/12/17/pinsentry/
69. I don’t think Cameron does give off toff, most people I know see him as being normal despite his background. They don’t like Brown very much but haven’t been persuaded to vote tory yet, something which may change.
72 I made a specific point of someone claiming inflation was in double digits , I agree with you that the real figure is nearer 4% than the 2% that the PM claims . FWIW my own opinion is that a strong cut in interest rates would not at this stage lead to an increase in this figure rather the reverse .
Well if we had budget surplus, we could cut taxes to put some more money back into the economy via spending power of the consumer.
But the last time this government cut taxes, it increased them for poorest in society at the same time.
32 Roger I used to have one for accessing the files at the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. The number changes every 60 seconds. It’s not random, but programmed. The bank’s computer has one which is the same. When you login your number has to agree with what the bank thinks it is or you’re locked out. The problem is when they get out of sync which happens occasionally.
re 44 thank God that someone has tackled Gordon on his fantasy that inflation is 2%.
78. Once again PB.com gets into embarassing territory when economics is discussed.
78 - If you think that loosening monetary policy would lead to a drop in inflation you might want to brush up on economics.
Since its Brown (for it is he) who is running the economy, then we have a problem as he believes that inflation is 2%. Vince Cable would run the economy better than Darling. So would Osbourne. Once this perception is into the public conciousness(which it is starting given the forced poll questions) this government is doomed.
You don’t need to be a blue harpie to see that. The question is what does it do to the betting? I’d be keeping my seats in the 300-306 range for now.(for the Tories).
83 As several leading economists discussed on Newsnight recently , it may well do in the short term .
73 - The only problem with that theory is that its another 8 months till the election, giving plenty of time to heal wounds. Plus Democratic enthusiasm is much higher than Republicans - look at turnout in the primaries so far. Also, even in SC 77% of voters said they would be happy with Clinton and 83% with Barack, higher numbers than for most Republicans (McCain in particular might have problems getting the base out against Obama).
Finally I still think there is a chance of a Clinton-Obama ticket. I know personally they have major problems with each other but they are both professional politicians and may decide that they need each other. Obama helps Clinton in the General with black, independent and young voters. It is in Obama’s interests because he is out of the Senate (where he would be stuck for the next 4/8 years) and is the presumptive nominee in 4/8 years.
85 - Any economist who suggests that interest rate action on inflation is other than a medium term effect is at best being disingenuous.
84 Brown is a politician and although he says inflation is 2% he may not actually believe that . The Conservatives are the party of recession and Osbourne would be no different to previous Conservative chancellors in taking this country into one . I would be selling Tory seats at 300 - around 280 is a more realistic figure at this stage of the parliament .
18 months from interest raise or cut for effect to be felt. Which is why I said storing up problems for the future.
If the Great Helmsmen tells us that inflation is only 2% why is it that Council Tax Bills are about to rise by 4%?
Roger. All the gory details are here…
http://www.hackaday.com/2007/11/03/sms-pin-sentry-reader/1#comments
89 I don’t accept that timescale if the cut or raise is a particularly large one .
Money to be made then!!
Brown is taking us into one currently. His budget deficit is not going to help. That is simple economics, which he must realise.
The problem is that central bankers and finance ministers over the last decade have solved the problem of the last bubble bursting by engineering a new bubble, eventually they will run out of bubbles to create.
93 My wager is still on offer that there will not be a recession in this country this year . Noone who has boldly posted on here that there will be one has been prepared to put any money down to back that up .
92. Stop making a fool of yourself - you have no expertise whatever in this area.
Mark,
Its is the interest cuts in 2004/2005 that are causing the problems now. All that cheap money in the system. All that cheap debt chasing cheap product from the far east. Supported by rapidly rising house prices, giving everyone a sense of wealth which is illusary.
The earning to savings ratio is poor. I hope we avoid a recession because it effects so many people, but hardly anyone has used the 15 good years to prepare for any future famine.
96 and which name do you usually post under and make a prat of yourself ?
94 post of the day. the economy has to adjust eventually.
90 - I’m a Labour supporter, and it is clear that inflation is nearer to 4% than 2%. RPI provides a more extensive picture because it includes more things, like fuel costs and mortgage payments. However the impression Tories seem to be pushing is that the government is actively lieing about inflation. That is clearly not the case. We have an independent statistics office that publish figures on all the measures. The idea that inflation is out of control is false - given the external impact of rising commodity prices, food and oil - inflation is very much under control. It makes sense for the MPC target to be based on CPI, otherwise monetary policy would be too tight in response to external shockss which we can do nothing about.
As I said I agree that inflation is higher than 2%, but the inflation record of the last 11 years has been very good. It is easy to criticise, but this government has the best economic record of any since the 1950s. And don’t give me this guff about them inheriting a great economy. They did, but they also inherited a terrible NHS and education system. Tories complain for being blamed for NHS failings, so why should they take credit for economic success?
O/T. Good news for the Political Betting 10 to follow syndicate. Three winners at the weekend pushed a line into 11th place in the £10,000 monthly prize. Bad news we’re unlikely to catch the leader.
Our best line is now 763rd and we have one at 1,402. Peter will update later, but this was a good weekend for us.
95 - Mark, what is the definition of a recession?
Is it still 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth in the manufacturing sector? Do both quarters have to be in this calendar year to qualify in your bet - or would Q408/Q109 count since th recession actally started in 08?
70 et al re inflation: see
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2007/may/16/consumernews
for a succinct discussion of the difference between RPI(X) and CPI and why the CPI is the measure used by the Bank of England. In a sentence, the main difference is that the RPI includes mortgages, and if the Bank reacted to rising mortgage costs by increasing interest rates, it would produce a vicious circle.
For the current trends in all the major sectors, see
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=19
So it’s correct to say the CPI is 2% and the RPI is 4%. All parties tend to focus on whichever one is more helpful - thus if interest rates fall sharply the RPI is likely to drop faster than the CPI and you can look forward to Tories suddenly taking an interest in the CPI.
To give a direct answer to your question - yes, if you exclude mortgage rate fluctuation I think that inflation is 2.1%. If you prefer to include mortgage rate fluctuation, then it’s 4%. Both are expected to decline in 2008, see
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2880.html
I also think that most people always believe figures on *any* subject are worse than the official statistics.
Obama has a chance and has always had a chance, but he is still an outsider in a two horse race and heavily dependent on Edwards to take bites out of Hillary amongst the traditonal working class groups. I think more of his chances now than I did after Iowa,when i didnt think much of the hype but still, he has a lot to do and I as yet see nothing that suggests that he will quite make it.
Looking through some papers this morning I think part of the problem is the coverage on this side of the Atlantic that, to the unitiniated, makes Obama look like he’s the man ahead when he patently is not.
Lets look at it this way, a day or two before each primary so far about some of the media and punditry coverage this side of the Atlantic:
-Iowa-Close, too tight to call but Obama looks to be edging it:
Result: Obama wins
-NH- Everything and everyone thinks Obama has it won
Result: Clinton wins
-NV- Tight race: A fair number of commentators think Obama will win citing union endorsements, Clinton going to court because they are desperate and so on etc. Polls fairly consistenly show Clinton doing better but dont seem to be noticed much, aprt from some sharp eyed people from Putney and associates
Result: Clinton wins
-SC- Obama win, no one believes otherwise.
Result: Obama wins and wins well.
Looking at it that waym, who looks to have had the setbacks?
A couple of things at the moment that indicate this Obamas lean in the media for example is the over focus on the black vote which whilst important in some states has few equivalents to SC. Also, the bigger vote block, called the white people, has been somewhat ignored in terms of what they might do.
There is also the moral sided argument over here abotu teh Clinton’s being awful nasty people which so far is not exactly winning the day over there.
His price in a two horse race isnt bad. I’m not taking it myself because I’m having too much fun and profit working primary by primary on the Dems and also have a bit more focus on the chaos that is the GOP. Its also too risky a bet at those odds because I just can’t see enough reasons why he can overhaul her.
Ok, so few seem to like Hillary that much but shes in front and continues to be in front. If someone can show me hard reasons why Obama can overhaul her I’d certainly take a look at those odds again.
By the way fans of the GOP race, can anyone shed some light on this former General Jerry character who has decided to enter the race? I’m tempted to believe he’s a stooge myself but have no evidence yet to back it so will wait and see what exactly he’s aiming at.
103 - RPI(X) (x)cludes mortgages or it used to.
102 Yes Robin that is the accepted definition but as we are part way through Q1 , I will include Q1 of 2008 .
Thanks Mark - was just wondering.
As I know too little about economics, I have no idea whether we are heading for a recession this year. I just know that lots of folk seem jittery and my investments are yo-yoing by the day…
So in effect Nick your arguing that our household bills are rising at 4%, but the government don’t like that figure, so we are only going to insiston 2% because we like that figure.
Again Perception is key and the publics perception is 4%. And you wonder why people are turned off politics.
Inflation is only going to up this year not down. You can quote me on that in December!
108 - FWIW CPI is at 2.1% RPIX is at 3.1% and RPI is at 4%. The CPI figure for the EU was 3.1%.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=19
As anyone else picked up the monoline insurer problems? These are the people who insure that dodgy collaterised debt obligations and other bond issues (like the one the government wants to do for NR) They are in a spot of bother. If they start going under, the debt crunch will reach all new level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=KRUW5Q2HHQT1LQFIQMGSFGGAVCBQWIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/28/ccom128.xml
Peter Peston at the BBC has been on at this for the last week as well.
105. It does, and it is around 3%, so 1% above CPI.
Re. 99, Hayek warned many years ago of the dangers of engaging in knee-jerk stimulus of the economy whenever there was a downturn. His argument was that artificially expanding interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy like construction would eventually lead to a distorted economic structure in which these sectors became vastly oversized.
Eventually, there would have to be a painful period of adjustment. The same argument might also follow for sectors reliant on rapid expansion of public spending, or on rapid rises in financial asset prices.
East Germany (vis a vis construction) and Japan in the 1990s can be seen as good examples of this effect in practice. Financial services over the last decade could prove to be another.
And here is another question. If house prices fall 8% this year, so Nothern Rocks balance sheet, as its debt is collaterised against high property prices. Thats a lot of exposure for us tax payers.
111 which is why everyone stopped lending to them in the first place. who wants to be lending to the worst mortgage portfolio in the market. if house prices are down 5% so far and fall another 5% those 100 and 125% mortgages are seriously in the mire and its the taxpayer who will be picking up the losses as defaults rise.
In my view Clinton will win the nomination. The really big states (100 delegates plus) voting on Feb 5th are Illinois, New York, New Jersey and California.
You would expect Obama to win Illinois of course, and Clinton New York. New Jersey would also seem to be a Clinton win, it is practically part of New York in parts, and Clinton has big poll leads.
Then it all comes down to California. Given Clinton’s lead with white and Hispanic voters I think she will win. African Americans make up only 8% of likely Democratic voters.
With Clinton winning 3 of the 4 big states she will have some very serious momentum for the rest of the primaries.
Yep, but Nick P et al will insist that the mortgage book is solid.
112 - Defaults only rise if the mortgagee cannot service the debt. This is where the inflation debate really stars. Negative equity is only a problem if you wish to sell your house, providing you can pay your mortgage then you just wait for the market to rebound. The problem is that lots of lenders are repricing the risk and so the actual interest rate paid could be going in the opposite direction to the bank rate.
A lot of NR mortgages are at 125% LTV. They are the people who could not afford the house in actuality in the first place. They are the likeliest to default on the loan. The whole business model was predicated on rising house prices and we are now in for £2000 each.
We could have built a high speed train line between Glasgow and London for that, and still have change for the olympics. But its not real money at the moment is it? Its figures on the balance sheet. Until the institutions who lent NR want there money back.
111/112 Perhaps its all a Government plot to return to owning a “public housing stock” - nationalise NR, reposess the properties of the loan defaulters and offer to let the ex homeowners stay in their old homes on a shared equity basis or as tenants!?
but we still will have to pay back the Bank of England (as they are the current institution who lent the money to NR).
110. The monoline insurers have been at the heart of the dubious practice by which paper with an underlying weak credit profile has been magically transformed into highly rated and yet high yield paper that can be snapped up by yield hungry end investors.
But of course you cannot continue to load these institutions with rubbish paper indefinitely without it impinging on their own creditworthiness…at which point the game is up.
I will be a lot more inclined to believe the more excessive Credit Crunch Horror Stories when the Credit Card companies tell people that their credit limits are going to be reduced. Any evidence of that yet? Simply putting the price up (i.e. increasing interest rates for borrowers) does not have the same psychological effect.
119.
Which leads to the conclusion that the entire credit market is built on a house of cards. Which is fine while people can service there debt, but inflation rising, low pay awards it gets more difficult.
hence the fear of recession. Which is currently possible but not probable.
120. I don’t know. I got an instant upgrade on my limit online from my credit card provider simply by making about 4 clicks on their website a couple of months ago.
Admittedly my credit is sound and I’m not the kind of person that they make money out of but still it was very easy.
120 I think Barclays have already done that.
120,
That tells you a lot about the psychology of debt. They have made your debt more extensive (worse for you) but not limited your ready access to it. If you are only paying of the minimum quantity each month, it will be years before its paid off with all that interest.
If they have raised your interest rate, you should stop spending on your credit cards.
101 Thanks for that, Cheltboy. Saved me checking.
Yes, it was good month for the TTF Syndicate but very unlikely we will win the January coconut. I’ll wait till Friday to do a full report. You never know, Paul Nicholls might turn Kauto Star out at Towcester. Failing that, looks like we fell short by a handful of points.
We have however suddenly become much more competitive in the Main Competition and I have suddenly become a big fan of Sizing Europe. (Hat tip Yokel.)
More anon.
62. Who’s Cass Penant and what’s the joke?
124 I take your point, but forget the borrower’s psycholgy for a moment - think of the lender’s. If they have less money to lend, what will they do? I would suggest that they should adopt the following (non-exclusive) strategies - (1) Charge more for it, so that they can themselves use that money to borrow more, or (2) ration their lending more efficiently. They can ration it through the price mechanism (which fits in with (1) above), or they can withdraw it from the more risky borrowers. I am still waiting for the latter stage to kick in. Most peple are in Yokel’s position - if you ask politely for more credit, you will get it. But I would like to know more about Barclays approach. I wonder how widespread it was?
128. Have a look at the Bank of England’s recent credit conditions survey…it will answer some of your questions…
Oops! Payola scandal hits the Tories!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7212990.stm
There are new Gallup polls from California and New York today. Based on likely voters, McCain leads Romney 36-31 in California - a good development for Romney, and Giuliani 40-21 in New York, with Romney at 17. A McCain victory in NY, which is a WTA state seems certain, even if McCain were to lose Florida narrowly to Romney. California is district based WTA, which means that McCain and Romney probably will split the delegates there.
On the dem. side, Clinton is leading Obama 56-28 in New York, which is as it should. In California the lead is 51-33, which is bad news for Obama.
I do not see Obama breaking out of his black and young, well-educated democraphics and are therefore increasing my Clinton bet.
113 - I agree that Clinton has the advantage but it’s not a foregone conclusion. Especially when you consider delegates are allocated proportionally. Clinton could win NY, NJ and California and still only come out with only 100 delegates more than Obama (it works in reverse in Illinois).
There’s a great article here on demography:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/demography_and_the_democratic.html
For California the Black population is 6.4%, the Hispanic 32.4%. BUT in Nevada those figures were 6.6% and 19.7%, but in the caucus they made up 15% each i.e. there is a huge turnout differential. If California replicates that Blacks could make up as muc as 15% of the vote, compared to only 25% for Hispanics.
36 - Clinton is ahead by enormous margins in most states, including the delegate-heavy ones. She may lose the Carolinas and other deep south states, but the ones that really matter will be hers.
Mark Senior,
My comment at 67 that things people buy are rising at “double digit rates” was intended to counterpoint the hyperbole of the PM - that inflation is firmly in its box. But the serious political point is that the more the PM bangs on about 2% inflation, the more detached he becomes from reality as experienced by his voters. He is already a distant man to most - this just reinforces the image that he hasn’t got a clue.
As for being a “blue harpie” - toss. I happen to be hammering the Govt. of the day because it is particularly useless. As and when Cameron is running the country in a way that offends me, I shall be equally forthright. As I will no doubt have an opportunity to demonstrate before 2010 is out…
129 - I think a fair few Conservatives will be secretly smiling at that.
Benedict White - where are you??
Re: post 201 (previous thread)
You seem to have a had a sense of humour bypass??
My comments on the National Liberal Club were clearly tongue-in-cheek
It’s a wonderful venue, to which I’ve been on more than one occassion.
Better than the Carlton Club too, IMO.
103 Nick my student loans are supposedly ‘interest free’ because the rate of interest is set to that of inflation. My measure of inflation is therefore the one used to judge whether I am paying real interest on my student loans.
As my student loan interest rate is kept in line with RPI I am currently paying a real interest rate of 0% or 2%. Which is it?
a) I have been lied to by the government because I am paying 2% real interest on my student loans but they are supposed to be free of real interest
or
b) I have been lied to by the government because inflation is actually 4% not the 2% claimed by Gordon.
a) or b) must be true so which is it.
113 - But the Democrats haven’t got winner takes all primaries so Super Tuesday for them is more about the detail than the sheer number of states won regardless of margin. Many of the key Republican states are winner takes all, hence Giuliani’s seemingly now disasterous tactic of focussing on those. It will give Clinton a boost if she wins “most of the big states” however you define that, but it will be the bottom line of delegates that will determine whether the race remains very much live later in February and beyond. This is also why John Edwards is still a real factor in the race despite it being fairly unlikely he will win a single state.
Conway gets what he deserves. As should any snout in the trough polictician.
98. “96 and which name do you usually post under and make a prat of yourself ? ”
Mark Senior.
132 - That is wrong. Most polls from Feb 5th states have Hillary ahead by between 10 and 20 points, not a ‘huge’ margin, and one that is likely to narrow. Plus, as we have seen the polls aren’t wholly reliable. I think it likely that Obama will still be in it past Feb 5th.
137 - On Edwards the key thing is ‘viability’. In most Feb 5th state polls he is around 10-15%. However this is before his seeming boost in the last week. If he gets less than 15% in most states he will pick a few delegates, because he will be viable in some congressional districts, but not very many. If he breaks 15% in say half the states he could very well have more delegates than the gap between Obama and Clinton, despite being a long way behind.
127. The lenders are charging you more, but they assume your risk to them is the same, so lend you the same amount.
The big banks and building societies only make profits by lending money, so only in extreme cases will they stop. The credit crunch was because they stopped lending too each other. The money they lent to you and I was at a higher rate.
One of the things to bear in mind with inflation is the class aspect. Generally, in recent years, it is the things that poor people can’t afford to buy too much of that have low/negative inflation (low fare airlines, consumer electronics, clothes, private cars), whereas the things that they have to pay for have higher inflation (Council Tax, food (now), public transport, utilities).
To paraphrase Kinnock:
I’ll tell you what happens with pragmatic realism. You start with watering down your ambitions. This becomes ingrained as a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Labour Prime Minister - a Labour Prime Minister - raising taxes on the poor to cut taxes for the better off.
It’s a rum do and that’s for sure.
103
‘To give a direct answer to your question - yes, if you exclude mortgage rate fluctuation I think that inflation is 2.1%. If you prefer to include mortgage rate fluctuation, then it’s 4%. Both are expected to decline in 2008′
What’s the point in using an inflation index such as the CPI which doesn’t give the full picture?
For example the CPI which I believe was a creation of Gordon Brown,doesn’t for example record council tax increases,which have been significant,so again totally misleading.
132 California is not winner takes all - the delegates are elected locally, and Obama is strong in the north - and has recently been endorsed by the most influential Latin