Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters
January 28th, 2008
- How much can you trust a survey with such a small sample?
The detailed data on YouGov’s London mayoral survey is out today and there are two things to highlight - the survey took place AFTER the controversial Channel 4 Dispatches programme last Monday but the size of the sample was just about the smallest that I can recall from the firm.
In their normal national voting intention surveys YouGov generally involve about 2000 people. The figure for Saturday’s Daily Telegraph poll was 1992. In previous surveys for the London Mayoral race the figure has been about 1000. The December survey was based on 995 responses and a poll in November had a sample of 1036.
Yet only 339 people took part last week’s poll poll and as Anthony Wells on UK PollingReport points out if you exclude the “don’t knows” and “won’t votes” your are left with just 240 responders.
As can be seen above YouGov had to make some fairly major adjustments to deal with under-represented and over-represented groups. So just 25 people in the 45-54 year old age group took part and their responses had to be scaled up to fit the 50 target for that segment.
The smaller the sample, of course, the greater the margin of error.
It is estimated that about five million Londoners will be able to take part in the election on May 1st.
Let’s hope that this will not be the norm for the campaign and that future surveys will have at least 1000 people taking part. It costs more but we will be able to attach more importance to the findings.
London mayoral betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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On my back of the envelope calculations that’s a margin of error of 6.5%!
Andy Cooke @ 240 on the previous thread…
I’d wholeheartedly agree to that - as well as requiring a newly elected MP to resign / stand down from any other elected positions, even if that would result in a by-election.
I have a particular bee in my bonnet about this - my MP is also an MLA as well as being a senior partner in a GP’s practice (and, until recently was councillor too).
Since the last euro elections, MEPs aren’t allowed to be elected to any other office - we should have a similar rule for Westminster.
Sorry to wander off topic right at the beginning of a thread!
re 1. Rob- I’ll still pay you your bet though Rob. Do you have a PayPal account
too small a sample - lets have one with a 1000
o/t
SurveyUSA: Romney 32, McCain 31, Rudy 16, Huck 13
24 Hours till voting ends in the Florida GOP Primary, it is easy to describe who is voting for Mitt Romney and who is voting for John McCain, but difficult to tell which of the two will win the Winner-Take-All Primary, according to SurveyUSA’s 9th tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile. Romney has 32%, McCain 31% at this hour, effectively tied. Rudolph Giuliani and Mike Huckabee are far back. Romney leads by 17 points among voters focused on the Economy, and leads by 24 points among voters focused on Immigration. McCain leads by 14 points among voters focused on Terrorism and by 22 points among voters focused on Iraq. Romney leads by 16 among Conservatives. McCain leads by 28 among Moderates. Romney leads by 14 in SE FL. McCain leads Romney by 14 in NW FL, where Huckabee, showing twice the strength he shows elsewhere in Florida, is six points behind McCain. Romney and McCain are effectively tied in NE FL and Central FL. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll one week ago, completed after McCain won South Carolina, but before Fred Thompson dropped out, both Romney and McCain are up significantly. But Romney is up slightly more, and may have the slightest additional momentum at the wire.
Boris is currently priced at 15.0 (i.e. effectively 2/1 assuming a two horse race) on Spreadfair’s 25-10-0 index. This is rather better than Betfair’s current price and around 50% better than the 1.3/1 price available after Mike’s recent piece on his prospects, but prior to YouGov’s mini poll last week.
O/T As I predicted, Obama’s odds have tightened significantly since SC. In terms of his winning the Presidency, on Betfair these have fallen from 4.7/1 to 3.2/1 and are now somewhat ahead of events I would say, at least for now.
In London Lite today (one of the Capital’s several freebie “newspapers”), I thought you would like to know that they state:
“After winning in South Carolina at the weekend he [Obama] is set for victory in Florida tomorrow.”
Well don’t say you weren’t told! For the uninitiated, Hillary is currently priced at 1/20 with Obama at 16/1.
…… and people get paid for writing such stuff!
NEW LONDON MAYOR POLL*
———————
Con 100% Others 0%
* Sample = 1, MOE = quite a bit
It’s like one of those American polls.
7 - HE HE
Lookin’ forward to super tuesday y’all
YouGov should be ashamed. It’s like one of those ads for a beauty product based on 233 people who expressed a preference to marie clare magazine.
Any sign of tommorrows Com Res? I can’t find it anywhere.
re 5. Thanks Peter from Putney.
I’ve been meaning to thank you publicly for your advice earlier in the month when I clicked the wrong buttons when making a Spreadfair bet and ended up losing £1000, Ouch. You suggested getting back to Spreadfair to see if something could be done. As a result of that advice I made a call and many of the bets were voided. My losses were reduced to £600.
Thanks for your help and support.
5 - I kept reading that Obama was going to win in Florida but thought that on here everyone was saying the polls were showing Hillary ahead?
4 O/T Despite the Survey USA giving Romney a tiny lead ahead of tomorrow’s poll, Betfair has McCain favourite at 0.83/1 with Romney at 1.08/1 - looks like a bit of value on the latter is available there.
12 James - he hasn’t a snowflake’s chance in hell.
Or put it this way, Should he in fact win, Hillary (and in fact all the Republican candidates) might as well concede the Presidency to him tomorrow!
14 - Good I thought I was missing something so if all the UK media reckon he is going to win, then when Hillary wins the papers will go nuts!
15. Whoever said Obama would win Florida?
14 ….. oh and by the way, if you think he has a chance in Florida then you should rush off to Betfair and take the £3 avalable at 15.5/1, but I suggest you don’t waste your money!
17 - I’m far too sensible for that!
11 You’re welcome Mike and I was very pleased to have helped.
I think I mentioned that I suffered a similar mishap in Sept 2006 and it was only by telephoning Spreadfair, more in hope than expectation, that I discovered their palpable error provision and was therefore able to reverse most of my position.
I’ve noticed that they now have a final “are you sure you wish to place this bet” procedure - and I make a point of counting up to three and then double-checking before making that committing click.
14. Err, Peter, what evidence do you have for that? They’re not polling for the Dems in Florida because the votes don’t count.
I don’t think Obama will win - but absent voting is through the roof, the anecdotal evidence is that those without AVs will still vote even without their vote counting, and so while Clinton’s again cheated and worked the state when she agreed not to, I think Obama’s chances are slightly higher than a “snowball’s chance in hell”
And for those who think winning will bounce Clinton, did Michigan bounce Clinton? Nope.
Hain’s ex-aides have cooked up a plan just in case the worst happens and
he gets a 12 month stretch for breaking electoral laws.
No, they aren’t planning to bake a cake with a file in it to spring the
Tango-tanned ex-Cabinet minister, who failed to register £103,000 in
campaign donations.
Instead, they hope to get old South African pal Nelson Mandela to wear a
“Free Peter Hain” T-shirt.
Today’s Gallup polls for New York and California are out
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx
20 - Err.. they have been polling the Dem Florida race.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_democratic_primary-261.html
There have been 4 polls released just today with the Clinton lead between 13 and 22 points.
Also, Florida is different to Michigan. The other candidates are on the ballot paper. Clinton will do her best to use a win to give herself momentum (esp. if she wins big), particularly in terms of press coverage and media narrative. I’m not sure it will work but I wouldn’t say it was crtain that Florida will have no impact at all.
If Boris has 42% of men and 41% of women, how come his “All” vote is only 40%?
How does that work?
I see Ken has 42% of women and 45% of men, yet despite there being more women in the poll than men, his average comes out at 44%.
At what point do people think it would be a good idea to put money on Bloomberg? Bloomberg will only really have a good chance if Clinton and Romney/Huckabee win their nominations.
I think anyone currently backing McCain should insure themselves by backing Bloomberg. If McCain loses the odds on Bloomberg have got to shorten and I can definitely imagine him becoming a betting/pundit favourite for the whitehouse even if actually imagining him as president is a bit more difficult.
Some of this polling is now starting to border on the manipulative. How can ‘professional’ pollsters justify samples this small?
It’s dishonest. London deserves better.
New California polls from CNN with changes from Jan 13th. Looks like most of them done before SC:
McCain 39 (+19) Romney 26 (+10) Guiliani 13 (-1) Huckabee 11 (-2)
Clinton 49 (+2) Obama 32 (+1) Edwards 14 (+4)
An interesting titbit I picked up today about California. The GOP Primary is closed but the Dem Primary is open, that might help Obama and hurt McCain.
re 24. Bob - I cannot explain and I have taken the liberty of re- posting your comment at Anthony Wells’s UK Polling Report.
20 Adam - I wasn’t suggesting that a Florida would give Hillary a bounce, after all the outcome is surely a foregone conclusion. My comment re Hillary ceding the Presidency to Obama was simply on the basis that if he were to win there, he would surely sweep the board.
Comres poll acc to Anthony’s site is Con 38 -3 Lab 30 N/C LibDem 17 +1 Others 15 +2 . Comres always seem to give higher Others figures compared to the other pollsters .
A poll that small has to be suspect, on the adverse press comment, Ken has had so much adverse press of the years, don’t think has any affect now!
so another “something for everyone” poll.
Cons. A clear lead. Lab No melt down. LD an increase.
I must say Com Res is my least favouraite pollster as I just don’t belive others is 15 % and if it really is should not some of these parties be getting individual billing ?
Still if the tories can’t break 40% in the current climate and Labour can still hang onto 30% then surely there is still much to play for?
30 - expect Stuart Dickson to crow tomorrow, even on that small sample - apologies in advance.
Based on the age percentages gives Ken 44% and Boris 41%. Anyone notice how many 18-21 years old they asked and how few over 55s. Have all the OAPs quit London? Somehow I am not sure I believe the lead that Ken has in the over 55s. This would suggest he is trending 17% above the national average for Labour for this age group. On the other hand Boris seems almost too popular amongst 35-44 year olds. In summary I think this poll has too many weaknesses to be taken seriously.
The average across the most recent polls from the 5 main pollsters is Con 39 Lab 32.6 LD 17.4. That ‘feels’ about right. Labour not much above their core, Conservatives still not quite there in convincing people and the Lib Dems doing a bit better under Clegg. Given the news good for labour, but the news might not get better. Only other thing - this is the first poll after the Hain resignation.
30.
Central probabilistic forecast.
Con 303
Lab 260
LD 47
Nats 19
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
usual assumptions apply
29. Peter, I’ve just got a feeling that this may be another state where the polls are somewhat awry - given the anecdotal evidence of a likely voter surge and that of huge absentee voting I just don’t see how polls can be reliable in such circumstances.
Equally, Clinton has a comfortable lead - thanks for the reference Kieran. But I disagree with you that there’s any difference to Michigan; even though Clinton will attempt to spin that there is. Let’s not assist her in that fraud though.
I think Labour sleaze has now been discounted in the polls. 30% is close to rock bottom. What will be interesting is how much Conway’s suspension affects the Tories. Its getting dirtier by the minute.. I suspect that MP’s expenses are going to be examined minutely.. There is undoubtedly more dirt to be thrown..
37 - According to one of the pollsters, Survey USA, Clinton is winning absentee ballots by a margin of 3:1 - although that will be on a very small sample size.
I think fraud is a little harsh. If it was the other way round of course Obama would try to use it to his advantage. Plus I doubt our discussions will affect any American voters or the media. I agree theoretically it shouldn’t help her, but in reality I think it will if only a bit.
why all the chat on the Dems when florida is such a fascinating race for the GOP. I,m happily sitting on bets for McCain at 2.2 and Romney at 2.1, but where do folks reckon the value is now?
38 - I’m not sure. Left to themselves, the main parties would probably go easy on each other as far as MPs expenses are concerned. But outsiders are going to be emboldened. In any case, we’d have to wait a few months for the investigations to be completed.
I just got Giuliani at 32 on Betfair to win Florida. Even if you don’t think he’ll win it (and I’m swayed because him winning it would make for great punting on Super Tuesday), 30 is generous given he was leading in the polls until a couple of weeks ago, and plenty of ballots were apparently posted early.
Obama is 3.5 to win Massachussets on Super Tuesday. Seeing as both MA Senators and the Kennedy family at large are stumping for him, I think that 3.5 is pretty good value, let alone the prices above 5 earlier on.
Sleaze is damaging for all political parties, really (well, not so much the Lib, because they try and pretend they are above it) My suspicion is the Conway thing will probably not have much of an effect beyond emphasising in the public mind that; “They are all as bad as each other”
The falls in the Tories support that we’re seeing in many of the recent polls, is, IMO, down to the fact that Cameron is sitting back and being quiet, rather than getting out there and showing the nation what he is all about. We know that when Cameron is in the spotlight the polls respond and we know the public the public are now ready to hear the Conservative message (for the first time since 1992) Unfortunatly at the moment there is nothing to hear, so the public are shrugging their shoulders.
The danger is of course, that without a Tory message to listen to, the public will start to hear and appreciate Brown’s message’s. To the Tories I say, the time has come to start being pro-active. Start annoucing one policy a month and begin making speech’s that set out coherantly what the Tory message is, what Cameron’s personal belief’s are, and in what way the country will be differant under a Cameron government. You have a golden opportunity, but at the moment its being squandered.
“I’m not sure. Left to themselves, the main parties would probably go easy on each other as far as MPs expenses are concerned” at 41. I agree - Conway was busted by th ex UKIP candidate.
“I’m not sure. Left to themselves, the main parties would probably go easy on each other as far as MPs expenses are concerned” at 41. I agree - Conway was busted by th ex UKIP candidate.
Anyone know if you can get odds on both the GOP and dem races going all the way to the convensions? Also, any views on whether it’s worth a punt?
Is this the Comres poll?
http://www.comres.co.uk/resources/7/Political%20Polls/Political%20Poll%20Jan%2008.pdf
46 - InTrade has DemBrokered at 15%/18% (=6/1) (buy/sell) and GOP at 25%/29% (=3/1). Not value, but fair prices. I’ve bought some, but that’s because I love those sort of bets.
According to the Telegraph 3 Line Whip Blog Conway was initially exposed because a list showing staff members for MPs with initials A-C came into the hands of the Sunday Times - which googled the MPs and identified Conway’s research assistant son was 19 at at university.
So MPs D-Z have time now to sort out their family staff issues.
Mr Conway had employed his other son and still employs his wife.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/jan08/mps-expenses.htm
48 - thanks v much. It seems I can’t make a single bet on both being brokered tho - anyone care to offer me some odds and we’ll use the recorded wagers thingy. I know I’m not a regular posted but have lurked here on and off for several years and am relatively trustworthy! Off to bed now but will check tomorrow to see if anyone wants to take up the wager.
Daily Mail leading with Conway employed other son too.
What kind of punishment is avaliable to David Cameron against Conway? I know he can withdraw the Tory whip from him, anything else?
52. According to ConHome, the whip won’t be withdraw.
CCHQ has released the following statement:
“Derek Conway has apologised fully on the floor of the House of Commons and the Whip has not been withdrawn. The appropriate punishment is being administered.””
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/01/cameron-makes-t.html
re 47 Yes indeed it is the ComRes poll. It shows CON 38%: LAB 30%: LD 17%
53 Ben Brogan ” I have reason to believe that the revelations about Mr Conway are about to get worse, which will then leave Mr Cameron facing some difficult choices.”
Coded warning that the not very Cameron friendly Mail is on the warpath.
54
Upturn for LD? New leader has done okay but have not seen too much of him of late. So far so good.
Labour going nowhere fast.
My real interest is in London Mayor, need a proper poll.
55. The Daily Mail has a piece on Chris Bryant’s new “give young free condoms” idea with his old picture in yfronts.
So if you don’t like to see him halfnaked, don’t buy the Mail tomorrow….
I imagine that this was the YouGov politics poll I dd last week, of usual sample size and they just asked a mayoralty question of the London sub-sample.
The Daily Mail are being their usual unattractive selves again. It’s clear they’ll gnaw away at the hapless Conway until he’s totally destroyed. A nice article by Ian Dale where he asks why every single one of his critics have posted anonymously on his site. I must be going through a phase but I find this baying for blood particularly nauseating. Perhaps if it was directed at Grayling I’d think it deserved.
Surprised YouGov would have its name attached to such a worthless poll,not surprised ITN published.
About as informative as the London celebs poll last week.
57 Firstly we discover Andrea reading Iain Dale’s blog and now, horror of horror, the Daily Mail - does this man have no shame?
57 I don’t know Andrea, its a bad choice of underwear (though Jeremy Paxman might find the style appealing as it offers just the right support) but he’s not got that bad a body to show off (a bit more work on chest definition and shoulders and arms) but near 6 packs must be rare on the front benchers, more of them have beer bellies.
59
You are not bothered that it’s your hard earned cash that’s being misappropriated?
Conway is lucky to still have his job.
re 59 Roger there are critics because what Conway’s done is indefensible. He’s just unlucky enough to have been caught. Quite a lot of MPs are probably on the make, fiddling a few expenses there, adding something here - there’s no-one to check them. Those with expense claims into the hundred’s of thousands unless they’re the likes of Charles Kennedy or Viscount Thurso should all be investigated.
Conway to lose whip/resign odds during 2008 2/5 in my book.
Dave’s heavies will be on the blower as we write.
New thread - Now ComRes shows that the Tories are faltering
61. PfP, what the hell could I do next? Watching ITV 10pm news?!
62. Ted, nice body, lack of something below the belt judging from the pics (but the pictures may be misleading)
42 - Morus, some very kind person took my bet on Obama at 7/1 for Mass. yesterday. I tried to lay Hillary at 1.12 today but it just moved the price out.
Giuliani is a real gamble, but it’s not inconceivable he could take Florida. I think it’s much more likely that he’ll take votes off McCain and hand Florida to Romney, which makes the value bet at the moment Romney at 9/1 for the Presidency - that’ll tighten at least to 5/2 if he wins the nomination.
The ComRes poll details show a clear Tory advantage in certainty to vote - if (like YouGov) they didn’t weight for that it’d be about 37-32, I think.
Tomorrow’s US story is going to be all about the GOP, and we may well get a glimpse of the eventual winner, I think.
Had 10 minutes with nothing to do over lunch today so for once read carefully through both free London papers. I’m now better-informed about the sex life of people (when, where, with whom, how drunk they were…) I’ve never heard of than ever before. But political coverage? They make the Sun look heavyweight.
I don’t know whether it has been referred to in the previous thread, but the one aspect which really amazes me about the Conway episode is that only a fraction of the amount paid to his son over the 3 year period is required to be repaid. I mean how many really believe that Freddy was working 17 hours a week for his father? I would have thought the penalty should have been at least twice the total amount claimed, pour encourager les autres.
As a Tory, I trust his local constituency party will at least have the guts to de-select him.
67 Chill, Andrea, I was just kidding!
71. PfP, I know you were kidding…however I tend not to check the Sun though..it would be too much.
70
I just can’t believe how lightly he’s been treated,he’s agreed with the verdict and gets to keep £27,000,his job plus 10 days extra holidays!
73 - But he’s still got to pay the bonuses back. Suspensions are served without pay.