How much damage is Dick Morris doing to the Clintons?
January 29th, 2008
Just two months before the presidential election in 1996 dick Morris, the man who went on to advise UKIP for their Euro-Election campaign in 2004, appeared on the front page of Time magazine alongside Bill Clinton who was, of course, running for a second term.
Now he has become, arguably, the fiercest critic of the couple through his blog, through press articles and TV appearances. He’s the one that gets asked to comment on his former client’s campaign style and he’s the one who has been putting the most negative interpretation on their activities.
Morris was among the first and most vocal in describing, as he saw it, the Clinton’s plan to make Obama’s skin colour into an issue and certainly this got picked up.
There’s little doubt that he has played a role in making the Clintons’ robust attacking campaigning style into a key issue
His latest piece “GOOD RIDDANCE TO THE CLINTONS’ POLITICS OF PERSONAL DESTRUCTION” pulls no punches and is in keeping with with much of his recent writing.
His great attraction is the proximity that he had to Bill and Hillary and his close knowledge about what they are like. This has given him a kind of authority which means that his ideas are being taken up by other parts of the media.
Whatever went wrong between Bill and Dick I don’t know but the consequences are certainly having an impact on the current race - and he’s continuing to post everyday.
In the UK betting the Hillary price has continued to ease while Obama’s odds have tightened.
Mike Smithson
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And what is Dick Morris like? Why do we trust what he says?
“How much damage is Dick Morris doing to the Clintons?”
Um… none at all? He strikes me more as a bitter man with a grudge against his former employers than a remotely objective political commentator. I find it difficult to believe that anyone takes what he has to say seriously. It’s not like he has a good track record: he predicted Howard Dean would win the Democratic nomination in 2004, and that Hillary Clinton would fail to be re-elected to the Senate in 2006.
Yes, he does make regular appearances on Fox News and in the New York Post attacking the Clintons, but I doubt anyone watching/reading those media sources was going to vote for Hillary anyway.
1. Jonathan: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Morris
He’s also the author of the recent book, ‘Condi vs Hillary: the next great Presidential race’, in which he predicted that Condoleezza Rice would win the Republican nomination in 2008 and beat Hillary to the Presidency. Well, we’ll soon enough be able to judge how accurate he was on that one…
Well after seeing his prediction success rate I must say he is making Mystic Mogg look positively Delphic!
re 1-3. I disagree completely with you. Morris is playing a key role in making the Clinton’s robust campaigning approach the issue - which was of course the reason why Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama.
Seem to remember that he had to resign after he was caught with a hooker/call girl. Although his book about his time advising Clinton was interesting and well worth reading, the rest of his stuff is just hackish nonsense. He was behind the ‘Condi Rice for President’ nonsense that some in the media swallowed hook line and sinker with in early 2005.
He also advised both Huckabee’s and Giuliani’s campaign (the one which is about to *win* Florida later today).
Who do we believe is going to win the nomination? Not who we want to win but who we think will win?
Why Conway had to go
£260,000 was paid to family members…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/01/29/nconway429.xml
“Hooray” Henry boasted of his designer gear..
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,2248717,00.html
Sky: Tories make counter-complaint against John Mann MP to standards committee…
Oink! Oink!
9, what’s the nature of the complaint?
Re-post from previouus thread:
Sky correspondent Jon Craig has just described Cameron’s change of mind as a “spectacular flip-flop”.
10. ..sounded like he didn’t declare use of a Union office…
I bet that there are a lot of very nervous MPs at the moment.
11. change of mind? What are you on about! He hadn’t said anything before removing the whip!
12, doesn’t sound that major, but holier-than-thou types do make themselves prone to accusations of hypocrisy.
Sorry to be O/T Mike as this is an interesting topic, but I just want to say that the worst that anyone can say about Dave re Conway is that he “took too long” or “changed his mind”.
I imagine Gordon Brown would give anything for his handling of Peter Hain to be viewed in such a way.
14. Yesterday, a spokesman for Cameron explicitly stated that whip would not be withdrawn….
We need a new Oliver Cromwell, armed with a horsewhip, to burst in on this den of thieves and flay their a.r.s.e.s….
I hear Mr Mann on the radio early today - a remarkably inarticulate person, even by Labour backbench standards. Do we really pay people like that 60k a year? Surely that is where the real waste is…
17. Really? I can’t remember reading or seeing anything with that on.
I said earlier that Cameron was getting more like Michael Howard by the day but even I didn’t expect this latest wheeze. In order to make himself look virtuous he flies in the face of natural justice and fires Derek Conway.
How very similar to the ruthless sacking of Howard Flight. The more you see of leading Tories the less likable they become (excluding those at the PB Party of course who were all totally charming!) Who was it who said ‘Greater love has no man than that he should lay down his friends for his life’?
Why don’t we just sack ALL the MPs. Every last man jack of them. They are a bunch of crooks, shysters, whingers, liars and stick insects.
So we might as well swap them all for the go-go dancers at Playskool. Same morals, slightly cheaper, much better looking.
17. Ah yes, and no doubt replace them with a Committee of the Godly - or perhaps a network of Army Officers.
17. http://www.kentnews.co.uk/kent-news/Cameron_s-u__turn-on-sleaze-MP-newsinkent9264.aspx
19. It was a CCHQ statement:
Derek Conway has apologised fully on the floor of the House of Commons and the Whip has not been withdrawn. The appropriate punishment is being administered.”
17 - Of course, old Noll gave his own son the Lord Protectorship as a parting legacy, and a fine mess he made of it.
o/t The New York papers this morning are running headlines of “Goodbye Rudy Tuesday?” suggesting that Rudy will pull out if he doesn’t win Florida.
Also, interesting piece in the NY Times about how independents get to vote in the California democratic primary - they are eligible, but there is a whole process to go through and you have to specifically request in writing a Democratic ballot, otherwise you just get a “non-alligned” ballot with only local initiatives on it. Causes all kind of confusion and hence the turnout among independents ends up being far lower than you would expect.
“I hear Mr Mann on the radio early today - a remarkably inarticulate person, even by Labour backbench standards”
Clearly an excellent judge taxpayer…….
Roger Gale looked really pissed off, bet he wishes he was back in charge of the coloured paper and pritstick drawer at Blue Peter.
Place all the shredders in the Palace of Westminster under armed guard.
14
On Sky news it was reported that DC had made it quite clear that the Whip would not be removed.
20: ???
Natural justice? It’s OK in your book to do what Conway did?!
If Cameron had backed him you would have been among the first to attack that. But then if Cameron sold all his worldly goods and donated them to charity you would find some fault so i don;t know why I persist in reading your posts.
Dave the Brave bravely ran away.
20. That didn’t even make any sense whatsoever, he hasn’t ‘fired’ derek conway, just removed the whip, and why does that fly in the face of natural justice anyway? (if such a thing exists)
For Adam if he’s around, he was talking about Rep. Grijalva endorsing Obama - he is switicing from Edwards.
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/printDS/222671
28. was it? when was this then? I haven’t seen anyone else report it.
22
Bloody great idea!
How Ben Brogan sees it.
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
29. Jon C. In this instance you’d be wrong and if you had read my posts from yesterday and today you’d know that.
29. Roger had a pretty good idea this was going to happen, methinks - hence his perverse and contrarian defence of Conway yesterday.
Now he can accuse Cameron of failing to act in a just manner - as defined by himself, of course.
Welcome to the distorted world of Roger, where any position is defensible as long as it allows him to attack Cameron or rehearse his tiresome prejudices.
28
About 20 mins ago on Sky News catch the 1500hrs news it may be repeated.
Poor Dave! He can’t win, can he?
But then again, Gordon Brown would get exactly the same stick from some people on here had the positions been reversed.
19. Don’t read the Times, the Telegraph or the BBC eh, Cuddles?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3268978.ece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/01/29/nconway429.xml
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
Onlly joshing with you!
re 17, Rod Crosby “14. Yesterday, a spokesman for Cameron explicitly stated that whip would not be withdrawn….”
To be fair that was before we knew the half of it. now it has got so much worse, he just had to go.
Not really a flip flop then, rather Cameron hearing more revalations and deciding to act.
Re 20, Roger “I said earlier that Cameron was getting more like Michael Howard by the day but even I didn’t expect this latest wheeze. In order to make himself look virtuous he flies in the face of natural justice and fires Derek Conway.”
The problem is that Derek Conway has spent £40,000 on one son and £30,000 on another without being able to account for it. That is shockingly bad administration, and bad politics.
38 - exactly. So Dave does the right thing, admittedly he could have done it a bit sooner, and the Labour attack mob on here change their tunes. So predictable, and so childish. No wonder politics has a bad reputation or engenders such ennui amongst voters.
DC has made a firm decision, something GB has proved totally and utterly uncapable of.
I do feel an unsettling precedent has been set though now. I think Conway was bang out of order, but when the next inevitable administrative transgression comes to light, on either side of the House, it’s bound to result in whips being withdrawn/resignations. And the current climate of MPs and PPCs “telling tales” and getting Knacker of the Yard involved is all a little bit school playground for my liking.
Somewhat comparable with Hain at £5,000 not declared and Hain at £103,000 not declared, only Brown didn’t act at all until Hain kindly offered to resign (or take a sabbatical for the duration of the investigation, should he be found innocent).
Is it the case that MP’s without the whip cannot be reselected?
38. Dave can’t win because allowing focus groups to decide which way he turns at each and every moment is an unsatisfactory way to run a party. The groups are by their nature superficial and their judgements fickle. That’s why leaders should lead and make their own decisions.
I have no doubt that this will backfire. It’s just too easy. A hit to nothing.
Interesting few days for the blogosphere. Hain is undone by Guido’s 12-month campaign of digging. The Clinton’s are undone by the blogging influence of their former henchman. And now, Cameron is forced to bow to the weight of his party’s feelings and ditch Conway.
There seems little doubt that in earlier - pre-blogging, and certainly pre-Conservative Home - Conway would have been protected by his House of Commons alliances from what would have been a press-led attempt to win Conway’s scalp.
But the leadership could not ignore the groundswell of opinion from the grassroots. The fact that it wasn’t just the ‘usual suspects’ outraged at Conway, but Councillors, association chairmen, moderate activists and Cameroons who were calling for his head and egging each other on, is what decided the issue.
Lessons for all politicians here.
One lesson for Labour is they need to develop an internet presence soon or they will not have any way of knowing what their dwindling band of supporters is thinking, getting worked up about, or threatening to resign about.
46. I’m still confused, why do you think punishing derek conway is a bad thing? You haven’t actually said why, just slagged off cameron(once more)
41. What new revelations? Even Cameron, to his credit doens’t claim that it’s evidence that changed his mind- he just “reflected overnight”.
The phrasing is careful and important on this one- Cameron can’t claim that it’s new evidence that changed his mind because that would mean admitting that yesterday he didn’t mind about the Privileges committee report- but was swayed by the latest allegations, which are presumably unproven.
49. They found out his other son may have had the same perks, so it wasn’t an isolated incident. His chief whip having a word was probably him asking if this was true, finding that it probably is, then telling cameron who decided to give him the boot.
I think there is a legitimate concern here. Cameron has had to rethink his initial reaction to an issue more then once, which is a bit dangerous. He’ll find it much more difficult to change his reaction in an election campaign, or in government - so it’s better if, like Blair at his height, he learns the skill of second-guessing the public before their concerns have had time to crytalise in the media. He’s got to look like a leader, not a follower.
Doing the right thing, even if one changes one’s mind, is always to be applauded.
Doing the wrong thing, for fear of people accusing you of changing your mind, should never be applauded.
49. Presumably the ‘new revelations’ in the ‘newspapers and the media’ that Labour’s Mr Mann was referring to over and over again this morning.
I hope a by-election results from all this shenanigans - Ive still got a significant bet running with Hills on Brown losing a by-election at 5/1.
13. They will all sit down over a brandy and sort this. There is a bit of piggy noses in the trough and to be honest who wouldnt? You use positions of advantage to advantage and thats what many MPs do.
It all needs to simmer down in due course though that Tory blokey was taking the proverbial.
43. “and the Labour attack mob on here change their tunes. So predictable, and so childish. No wonder politics has a bad reputation or engenders such ennui amongst voters.”
yes, especially as the Tory attack mob on here act in the same predictable and childish way
44
There is a police investigation going on into Hain, if there is a case to answer, and he is found guilty he will receive the appropriate punishment.
The money involved in donorgate, is not public money, this is!
Most people will find it strange that Hain and possibly the others are facing criminal charges, yet someone who defrauds the taxpayer, does not, this is no different from benefit fraud!
We have a huge army of people searching out anyone found of fiddling the benefits system, yet we allow MP’s carte blance.
There are some reports saying the police could become involved, lets hope they do!
I think its fair enough that the lefties blow off some steam after months under the kosh.
Yes its all very childish and lacking in any credible substance (to attack Cameron I mean, Conway deserves all he gets)but Cameron’s comparison with Broon’s tribal self-interest is very much in his favour. I genuinely think CCHQ needed to say something last night but in hindsight it should have been a holding position.
Also the lefties have been telling us for weeks that Hain, Harman Watt and Alexander’s sleaze would have no impact in the wider electorate so I am not sure why they are squealing so much now.
Re 57, Coldstone. “We have a huge army of people searching out anyone found of fiddling the benefits system, yet we allow MP’s carte blance.
There are some reports saying the police could become involved, lets hope they do! ”
The problem here is that there is not sufficient evidence to prove fiddling beyond resonable doubt. I grant you is does not look good on the balence of probabilities though.
Doing the right thing, even if one changes one’s mind, is always to be applauded.
Doing the wrong thing, for fear of people accusing you of changing your mind, should never be applauded.
The problem, Sean, is that’s it’s a bit of a political luxury - you can’t do it more than a couple of times. It’s like saying, in government “yes, it was a cock-up, and we’re sorry”. The first time it happens, you get applauded for your honesty. The second time, one wonders whether it shows a pattern of serial incompetence. Consistency is a political necessity.
26: If Giuliani pulls out, that means even more delegates for McCain in California, as well as eliminating any serious opposition in the winner-takes-all NE states (NY/NJ have 150 odd delegates) - the expensive ad dollars there can also be redirected.
This is the first time I’ve thought this: McCain has the nomination.
50. Except that those aren’t new revelations.
They’re covered in the Committees report. Para 60 or so here. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmstnprv/280/28004.htm
7. Yokel. I think Hillary will get the nomination but I would price it at 4/6, 6/4. Nick Palmer, who is a Hillary supporter and, like yourself, did not let his judgmant get swept aside by the last tide of Obamania, rates it Evens the pair. Obama needed something extra to reignite his campaign. Hopefully Ted Kennedy’s endorsement will prove to be the turning point for him.
62. So Mr Mann is just a buffoon, then?
42 “The problem is that Derek Conway has spent £40,000 on one son and £30,000 on another without being able to account for it. That is shockingly bad administration,”
Oh come off it! It’s a lot more than “bad administration” as I’m sure you well know.
However, well done Cameron for doing the right thing. It just shows Brown up for the dithering, indecisive tolerator of sleaze that he is.
OT for those interested. Italian government crisis…
Napolitano today finished the receive all parties, this afternoon he will receive former Presidents. Then he will make his decision: call for new elections or give to someone the task to try and form a new government.
FI (and AN) are very much pro-elections. CL would like to avoid them now and make an “institutional” govermment. UDC is a bit in the middle.
CL is also discussing (but not so laudly) the internal situation….PD would like to run alone. It would mean absolutely no chance of winning the elections (they won’t win it anyway) as the current electoral system favours coalitions (hence PD’s desperate attempts to get a new electoral law). PD running alone would also mean a fairly consistent majority for CR at the Senate as they would win all regions in that context.
PD think they would perform better alone than with the rest (which would be very possible)..
anyway since probably very few cares, I stop “ranting” here..just to mention the last poll has CR 11% ahead…
59
I would have thought that the fact Conway has apologised for doing it, could be seen as an admission of guilt!
No MP should be allowed to employ members of his/her family in any capacity whatsoever, no MP should be allowed to employ any member of any other MP’s family.
I would have thought the Michael Trend case would have put an end to it.
During that case, some MP’s were openly boasting in the tearooms on how the whopping ‘additional costs allowance’ for overnight stays helped them rip through a mortgage on a desirable London property with public money.
For those MP’s who live faraway, bedsits should be provided, in a hostel bought by the taxpayer for their use. If families come to London, three star hotel accomodation paid for, two weeks per annum maximum.
Hopi Sen & Roger - give over, Cameron, for whatever reason has done the right thing. You are just disappointed that Cameron has closed off the possible damage.
Now lets see how Gordon addresses the admitted lawbreaking of Alexander and Harman
66 - CR is that Berlusconi’s mob?
64. Ii didn’t hear mann this morning, so correct me if wrong- relying on 2nd hand reports from the internet- AIUI Mann is saying that what the report says about Henry Conways payments (which preceded freddie conways) is troubling enough to warrant a second complaint and investigation.
I don’t know if there’s anything wrong with the way the elder son was employed or if it breaches parliamentary rules. It’s noticeable in the report that Conway himself raises the issues of his older sons previous employment.
To sum up- The facts don’t appear to be in dispute- what Mann is apparently saying is that what is in the report constitutes a breach and that there should be a punishment for that too. Presumably conway says they don’t represent a breach of the rules.
68. I don’t think you get full credit “for doing the right thing” if you only do it when there’s a terrible stink!
69. sorry, for CR, I mean, Centre-Right (CL=CentreLeft). So yes, Silvio’s mob
re 65 Voxpop “42 “The problem is that Derek Conway has spent £40,000 on one son and £30,000 on another without being able to account for it. That is shockingly bad administration,”
Oh come off it! It’s a lot more than “bad administration” as I’m sure you well know.”
The problem is what you can prove.
70. That waffling reply confirms that you are just making up your spin lines as you go along.
68: Absolutely. Dave has just demonstrated that as Premier he would calmy reflect on a troubling issue, make a thoughtful and considered decision in an appropriately brief period of time, and more importantly, make the right decision even if it is not necessarily in the interests of the Tory Party in the short or even longer term.
Whilst Gordon dithers, drifts, gnaws away at his fingernails, buries it under the carpet. Then gets pushed into an outcome that he probably doesn’t like, that reflects very badly on him and his party, and cements his reputation for incompetence and bad management. Then blames the Tories for everything and tells us how fantastic things are under Labour.
Good lad Dave.
71 Cameron took just 24 hours to come to the right decision. That’s firm, decisive, and thoughtful leadership IMO. But like I said to you on the earlier thread, according to you Cameron is “damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t”. Your determination to insist on having it both ways smacks of desperation.
Why not admit that Cameron’s actions show up Brown for the indecisive, dithering coward that he is and that, while sleaze is not tolerated in the Tory party it so clearly is in Labour.
71. As compared to Brown, who clings on to a minister after he has already admitted breaking the rules - indeed breaking the law.
Cameron has acted within 24 hours. Hain had to be slowly ad painfully extracted from the gengrenous jaw of New Labour, like a septic wisdom tooth.
Lefties are greedy lying crooks, and so are rightwingers.
The difference is that lefties are incapable of seeing themselves as others see them. And cannot admit wrong.
In the end this lacuna will get you.
73 I wasn’t born yesterday. I’ve weighed this mess up and it’s patently obvious that Conway is a crook who’s been ripping off the taxpayer. You’d have to be wet behind the ears to come to any other conclusion.
74. JJ, that’s pathetic. I’m actually trying to answer the question.
Look, in the report, the references to the elder son seem to be a mitigating factor for the employment of the younger son….
“Some evidence of the genuine nature of these needs is provided not only by the testimony of the Conway family but by other factors. These include the fact that Mr Conway had previously employed his elder son as his research assistant to undertake a somewhat similar range of duties and, since his younger son, Freddie, ceased to work for him, has employed another part-time research assistant with, he says, a similar brief”
and were raised by Conway himself:
“Secondly, following references made by Mr Conway at my meeting with him on 29 November to his previous engagement of his elder son, Henry, and his practice in respect of bonus payments to all his staff,[68] I asked the DFA for pay and bonus information in respect of Mr Conway’s other staff. This showed that:
a) Mr Conway’s elder son, Henry, had from March 2003 been paid at approximately the same rate (£10,000 pa, in Henry’s case for 18 hours work per week) at which the younger son, Freddie, had initially been employed (in Freddie’s case, for a contracted 17 hours a week); ”
Now, these are not NEW allegations.
They’re covered in the report. Mann is saying they warrant further investigation and punishment. Conway presumably denies this pretty strongly.
What Cameron can’t do is claim that these new allegations are what changed his mind- because they’re in the original report.
Which is why he Cameron doesn’t do so, even though Cuddles tried to on his behalf!
I don’t think you can make a fair comparison between Brown and Cameron at the moment. In government, the sensitivity to the currents of public opinion are reduced, and the stakes are higher. It’s easier for any Opposition leader to look firmer and more decisive than a PM - few people care about Opposition consistency (this is why I don’t think Cameron will be damaged by this particular decision - but it’s an example of pattern that might be more damaging at a crucial moment).
75 lol! The Tory version of Pravda.
It’s funny to see Roger, Jonathan, Hopi Sen and the other Labourites so clearly rattled by Cameron’s firm, decisive stand against sleaze which contrasts so starkly with the avoidance and dithering of their Glorious Leader.
No wonder they’re getting so wound up and coming out with all this desperate nonsense.
Be wary of believing that Guiliani’s vote will transfer to McCain should be wary, very wary.
Whilst there may be a shift of independents currently supporting Guiliani to McCain but the GOP types may well tilt as much to Romney as McCain.
As yet its unclear what way Rudy’s support will split.
82. yes, yes.
I see your point. David Cameron is so decisive he made not one but two decisions on Conway. Can’t get more decisive than that.
84 - Surely two decisions is better than Brown’s none?
84 You’re scraping the barrel and you seem to be the only one who can’t see it.
85. I lol-ed!
85 I wish I’d thought of that riposte
86 Indeed. So many bad decisions are made by politicians, because so many of them believe that persisting in the wrong course of action makes them look stronger than chaning their mind to do the right thing.
86. Yes, I always feel that the court of opinion is against me when the independent minded and utterly open to criticism likes of JJ, cuddles et al disagree with me.
You know what depresses me? The way certain Tory posters use the same phrases, again and again, in the hope that merely repeating them will make them true. It’s like you get given a quota of how often to mention the word “dithering” or “firm”.
It’s worth bearing in mind that the report from the Select Committee on Standards and Privileges states, at paragraph 28: “In support of our conclusions, we note that all bonuses for staff authorised by Mr Conway in the previous three years were within the permitted level.”
If they’ve already trawled the records for the past three years - or even more - what on earth is the point of a further waste of public money investigating yet more allegations?
Get back to your knitting and wait for the next tumbril.
90 - “You know what depresses me? The way certain Tory posters use the same phrases, again and again, in the hope that merely repeating them will make them true.”
What - phrases like Bottler Brown?
FWIW, while I stand by my comments last night that most people in the country will be going “who’s Derek Conway?”, it does suggest that Cameron’s learnt not to knee-jerk so much.
Should this story run, the media narrative is more likely to go to dodgy-MP-on-make rather than dodgy-party-on-make from now on. Bad for Conway, good for Cameron, especially as that removes another bed blocker type MP
90. Oh go away - a failed spinmeister moans about others spinning. Utterly pathetic.
83. How close would the GOP primary in Florida tonight have to be for the second-placer to call a re-count, seeing as it is winner-takes-all ?
84. Well thats two more decisive decisions than Brown has ever made.
Though its not entirely clear from the extended ramblings what your issue with Cameron is, in essence it appears you are cross he has changed his mind in light of growing grassroot sentiment from his party and in light of a more detailed examination of the issues overnight. Further you seem annoyed that it took him as long as 24 hours to make this entirely rational response to a devloping story.
Well..yes that is pretty shocking behaviour for a leader of a political party ..your self-righteous indignation is justified…
God, what a dreary thread. Can we just admit that we are governed by bacteria, and have done with it.
No wonder nobody votes any more.
The visible disappointment from some on here about Cameron’s swift and firm action would seem to be all the justification he needed.
Well played, Dave.
83 I agree with Yokel. We (myself included) tend to forget how murky the second and third preferences are.
But there is an equal danger to presume that Huck voters will transfer to Romney. Huck is unlikely to drop out, but a poor performance tonight will lead some of his voters to abandon him for one of the two frontrunners. If they split evenly, this might put McCain over the top in some southern states, where he mostly leads Romney clearly, and are tied with Huck. The impact is weakened by the fact that few of the southern states are WTA.
94 AlanJ If the margin is 0.5% or less then automatic recount
From the BBC website:
“Duncan Borrowman, the Lib Dems’ candidate for Mr Conway’s Old Bexley and Sidcup seat, has also written to the police. However, a Scotland Yard spokesman said the Metropolitan Police have not received a complaint about Mr Conway yet.”
Ha ha, I was right. It’s gone in the bin like all other Lib Dem Focus guff!
Hopi Sen
Cameron did the right thing, get over it.
Gordon Brown consistently has not, accept it.
You know what depresses me? Your barrel scraping endeavours and staggering hypocrisy…..How much is the bunker paying you for this drivel?
93/95.
My issue is not with Cameron’s decisions, or lack of them, or whichever one he makes today. Yesterday I didn’t even post when cameron did nothing at all. Seemed to me like his business and his decision.
today I’ve been trying to show that those posters who have swarmed on here, on cue, to praise Cameron’s dcision as firm, decisive, principled and a stark contrast to… (you know the rest) have wilfully ignored the actual facts about what Cameron’s done.
I notice now that the level of debate has sunk to namecalling and saying using evidence in support of ones case long winded and dull. That’s what’s truly pathetic, imo.
so many of them believe that persisting in the wrong course of action makes them look stronger than chaning their mind to do the right thing.
Generally, the perception backs that up. What did for Wilson? Having to devalue in 1967 after staking the reputation of his govenrment on it. Heath’s U-turn permanently alienated much of the Conservative Party. John Major was criticised again and again for rowing back on certain positions. The most serious charges against Brown are that he toyed with an election and then bottled out - and came up with his own ludicrous IHT proposals after deriding the Conservative ones. Flexibility in views doesn’t pay in the long run.
Nice to see teh Kennedy family split on endorsements.
Kerry Kennedy, Robert F Kennedy Jr and Kathleen Kennedy have comne out for Hillary….
Meanwhile, more hints that John Edwards will stay on and fight for as long as he possibly can because he can be Kingmaker if not the king.
96 - it does appear it’s the, ahem, “older” type MPs who seem most at this. The likes of Conway, Hain etc aren’t of the noblesse oblige type public servant MP, but of the more trough sniffing type.
The newer intake of MP will far more likely to be brought up in an era of political cynicism, so they won’t be so inclined to do what the likes of Conway are alleged to have done. They’ll make their own mistakes, and they too will end up becoming corrupt in one way, shape or form.
This is why I made plenty of comments before last year’s non-election that Cameron wanted a reason to blood new talent. Ironic that half his old party are doing that job for him.
Put it this way, I think we can expect to see more of the likes of your friend and mine, Barack Obama type politicians. They may be inexperienced but is that such a bad thing now?
re 67 and yet coldstone I bet that even with those restrictions there still would be no shortage of hopefuls at selection meetings.
54 Alex Williams Ive still got a significant bet running with Hills on Brown losing a by-election at 5/1.
Isn’t that lose a byelection before any of the oher listed events (Raith Rovers promotion etc) occur ? Also did we clarify whether it needs to be a Labour seat lost or will any seat do ?
re 89 yes absolutely. My views on the government would have been changed markedly if at any time Blair had made a Prime Ministerial broadcasting announcing that he was wrong on the Iraq war and apologised unreservedly and was in consequence resigning. Instead we got the view that any change of mind would be seen as weakness.
re 90 you mean like “inflation is 2%”
Re 78, Voxpop “73 I wasn’t born yesterday. I’ve weighed this mess up and it’s patently obvious that Conway is a crook who’s been ripping off the taxpayer. You’d have to be wet behind the ears to come to any other conclusion.”
That is libelous, which is why I have not said it.
103. I don’t really agree. Devaluation should have happened long before 1967. Heath’s problem was not the U-turn per se as the disastrous consequences of the U-Turn. Major’s problem was that (like Wilson) he staked his reputation on remaining in the ERM, and persisted with a damaging course of action.
Pig-headedly sticking to a policy, and then being compelled by circumstances to change course, doesn’t disprove my point.
98. There is certainly a good lump of the Huck base that would go McCain if SC is anything to go by, McCain was an interesting 2nd preference. I believe that some of the Fred Heads would go that way as well particularly in the Southern states where so far I’m not sure Romney has played well.
On the Dem side, Edwards is playing a cute game. People need to be aware of it. In an increasingly fractious punch between Obama & Clinton, could there be an outside chance of Edwards being Mr Compromise after all if either pulls away? If somehow he did make it, which is only about a 5-10% chance of coming off, I’d like to put myself up for suicide bet of the year that actually made it.
As for tonight..no idea at all but either Huck or Guiliani (or both) will shed at the last moment I suspect. Could make all the difference to who wins.
Surely Bill Clinton can’t be as Cuprinolesque as suggested by the photograph at the top of this thread?
Just picked this up from Drudge:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-129electionday,0,6968764,print.story
Oh dear - are we going to get another Florida voting fiasco a la swinging chads?!
108 - True: that’s a good counter-example. Had Blair, when no WMD had been found, resigned, his own reputation would have been largely saved from damage and Labour probably wouldn’t have suffered in the long-term. But, then again, that demonstrates the problem: you need to provide a scalp, too, and politicans aren’t always in a position to provide one. If - to take one example - George Osborne happened to be caught up in a borderline scandal which might go either way, Cameron would be disinclined to let him go because of the damage that could be done to his own position.
Re-posted from previous thread:
McCain’s odds in today’s Florida primary continue to shorten, currently 0.72/1 on Betfair vs Romney’s 1.26/1.
This is where I would normally tap the side of my nose, uttering “someone always knows and someone always tells”, but on this occasion and based on recent polling inaccuracies, this is patently not so.
But hang on, didn’t someone say on here that the polls for the GOP primary were already closed? If this is indeed the case, then perhaps someone does know after all!
111 - Yes; possibly a slightly poor set of examples, as you can argue that Wilson and Major made their own beds by their stubborness originally. But, if you do change policy or your attitude on a particular issue, you’ve got to present it as a careful, considered movement - not a sharp judder in reaction to events. It has to be as part of a proactive gesture demonstrating you’re in control. My own feeling is that Cameron looked a bit too reactive here, and it isn’t the first time.
Hopi, you haven’t worked out how this site works yet, have you?
Anyone who voices a pro-Labour sentiment is clearly just spinning on behalf of the Party. Anyone who’s views happen to coincide exactly with those of Conservative Central Office is merely telling the plain, unvarnished truth.
107 - yes, thats the bet - all it states is that Labour to lose a by-election - doesnt say that it has to be a Labour held seat
116. “But hang on, didn’t someone say on here that the polls for the GOP primary were already closed? ”
Unlikely - it’s about 11.30 a.m. in Florida, isn’t it?
I think what they probably said was the GOP primary is closed, as in only for registered Republicans, not Independents.
It’s one of the reasons I like Cameron: he’s not knee jerk. In fact he’s quite cautious and waits a bit to weigh matters and see how they are panning out - then he makes a final decision and gets on with it. All done within 24 hours.
Compare that to Brown who is chronically indecisive. Given any tough call he becomes paralysed and hides away, as many former colleagues have testified. And why does he agonise endlessly? Because he is scared stiff of getting it wrong.
I know which of these two modes of crisis management I regard as ‘leadership’.
120 - Yes, only republican party members who have registered beforehand can vote today.
The winner gets all the delegates today in the GOP race is that correct?
119 Thanks Alex. Just noticed Raith are having an ominously good season - currently 2nd in their league. Do you remember what the other events were ?
123 - dont remember them all, but one was ‘announce to complete withdrawal of troops from Iraq’
112. A lot of the hardcore evangelical base would side with anyone (Giuliani excluded) against the Mormon, but only if Huck left the race.
122: Yup. Same in NY, NJ, Arizona (highly likely all go to McCain)
120 Doh! - Gotcha Alan, I’ll just get my coat.
“God, what a dreary thread. Can we just admit that we are governed by bacteria, and have done with it.No wonder nobody votes any more. by seanT January 29th, 2008 at 3:54 pm”
Hear hear. Full of people being boringly self righteous today. Bring on Florida and some proper conversation
116. peter
There was a lot of absentee votes.
As it is McCain has hung on well as FL GOP types have made up their minds, he’s held on to a lead in most polls. normally he has a real poll stutter before the day.
It is, however too close, and it only takes comparatively few to sit on their butts and not turn out, or a 1/2 points Huck/Guiliani underpoll and it could be all thats required to make a loser a winner.
123 Well if not yet exactly dancing in the streets, the Raith supporters must at least have ordered in the bunting!
Re. 20, it was Jeremy Thorpe. He also congratulated Macmillan on keeping his head while all around him were losing theirs.
129 I tend to agree Yokel, I had a score on McCain at evens with Ladbrokes a couple of nihts ago, just as the odds were shifting sharply in his favour. I’ll just stay with this for now and check what the first exit polls suggest - anyone know what time this will be in GMT terms?
131 Ah, those were the days, when the Libs were near Tories!
100. The Lib Dem apparently sent the letter to the Met by second class post! You couldn’t make it up. The cutting edge of political campaigning, eh.
134 - It will probably never arrive then!
133 Of 6 Liberal MPs in the fifties, I think 3 were kept in place by electoral pacts with the Tories.
For those interested in Labour selections…some info on Hull East race (from the local paper)…first 2 ward branches making nominations
Southcoates East: Karl Turner (BME and female nominations not mentioned)
Longhill: Karl Turner, George McNamara (BME), Della Georgeson (female)
Meanwhile, Leslie and McNamara getting most of the unions nominations so far.
Prescott Jr was second in Longhill..he still has to secure 1 nomination though.
New Rasmussen tracker
Romney 29, McCain 27, Huckabee 18, Guiliani 12, Paul 7
Clinton 41, Obama 32, Edwards 18
Half the sample after SC. No Obama bounce detectable yet - although this obviously doesn’t take into account fully the SC + Kennedy effect.
Also an interesting one I spotted from SUSA for Oklahoma, all done after SC:
Clinton 44 Edwards 27 Obama 19
McCain 37 Huckabee 28 Romney 19 Guiliani 6 Paul 6
I’ve made my final Samplemiser projection and FWIW projected a McCain victory by 0.3%. (with 6.73% still undecided). Essentially its going down to the wire.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/01/29/final-projection-mccain-leads-by-030/
11 “That is libelous, which is why I have not said it.”
Do you mean libellous?
Being here in Florida, out in red-neck country, everything is quiet, you just wouldn’t know that there was a primary on.
This afternoon we are going into Ocala to the movies [Atonement - I've seen it already but the memsaab insists]and may see the usual suspects on street corners waving banners and slogans. This seems to substitute for electioneering here. Last Friday we came through Ocala and saw about a dozen or so on a street corner in Downtown waving Huckabee banners; unfortunately for Mike, only three of them were old enough to vote. Perhaps it’s a pocket money thing.
Malcolm
128, Sure Sean is never in the country to vote…..I want to know how come editors don’t send him to the likes of Skegness or Bognor.
I want a SeanT entry like this:
Am seated at Butlins Bognor in between a sausage and chips lunch, having a WKD at the Burberry bar. Looking forward to the pinnacle of entertainment with Chico and some other person who was in X Factor but didnt last beyond Week 3…Plan to patrtake of a local special brew..in fact it is Special Brew..with added Absinthe
Proper
Re 140 Voxpop “11 “That is libelous, which is why I have not said it.”
Do you mean libellous?
”
*cough* might do, ‘ho’s askin’?
Seriously there is no proof of illegality on his part but then he has no evidence to exonerate himself which he should have as it is our money he is spending.
138 I had thought Hillary’s lead was far greater than the 8% as suggested by this poll. It will be very disappointing for her should she win by only 4%-5%, opening up prospects for Obama elsewhere.
For anyone thinking he can actually win Fla, there’s 19-1 to be had on Betfair.
144. He won’t!
138. I read an interesting interview with Joe Trippi (edwards campaign manager) where he said Edwards was running well in the midwest0- which would fit well with the demographic of his appeal in South Carolina.
AIUI Edwards needs to get 15% in each congressional district/plus a proportion statewide in order to get delgates, which he could well do in a lot of states.
Makes me think that the Democrats could easily end up in a situation where Clinton and Obama have 35-45% of the delegates, and Edwards c20%. Which would be very interesting..
144 Correction, Obama now 39/1, Hillary 1/49.
132 Punting Peter
Polls close here at midnight UK time. Those standing in line are able to cast their votes. Exit Polls will appear at just after midnight, 7 pm here.
Whilst McCain may win, there is enormous hatred of the man throughout the right wingers and libertarians here in Florida, and despite protestations to the contrary from Republican hacks and the media, many people round here swear that they won’t vote for him in the GE even if his opponent is Hillary R Clinton. Offering this information, for what it’s worth.
Malcolm
143 Perhaps if Mr Conway sued me for libel it would give him the opportunity to provide the evidence to exonerate him from these accusations of dishonest use of public money?
I’m just trying to be helpful
Re 147, Peter from Putney, is that for Florida?
Looks awfully good odds for Obama and bad for Clinton, (As in value terms). Is it really that certain?
Re 149 Voxpop, “143 Perhaps if Mr Conway sued me for libel it would give him the opportunity to provide the evidence to exonerate him from these accusations of dishonest use of public money?
I’m just trying to be helpful ;-)”
If he sued, he would lose, would not be able to pay your costs I suspect (libel trials are very expensive) and so you would both lose.
150 Yes Benedict, but as Yokel states, it just ain’t going to happen, hold onto your money!
142. lol.
I have recently written a piece in… West Bromwich. I had to dine at a “Fort Jester” restaurant the M5 interchange. Let’s just say there was plenty of fried onion rings.
I didn’t post about it, in case it ruined my image.
While I am posting (from sunny Bangkok! Hooray!) I want to retract my previously negative statements about No Country For Old Men.
I’d only seen half of it when I said it wasn’t that great; I’ve seen the rest now.
It’s a very fine film. Magnificently bleak, poetically terse. The psychokiller is great, but there’s an even better performance from the Scottish chick from trainspotting (the underage one) who brings off a quite remarkable Texas accent.
A very good film, not quite Ratatouille, but great. Hardy-esque in its pessimism. Must read some Cormac MaCarthy.
151 I won’t be losing any sleep over it!
McCain is shortening in Florida. I cannot find any news or new polls explaining this. Anybody?
Extraordinary 1.01 for McCain on betfair a minute ago (now 1.3)… Some nutter seems to have bought up the whole lot!
148 Thanks for that info, Malcolm. At least I don’t have to stay up for the results tonight.
I’m afraid your salutation, “Punting Peter”, takes you perilously close to an automatic £1 fine towards the next PB.com party, but on this occasion you will be let off with just a warning.
144 - Sorry for not being clearer - it is their national tracker showing the 9 point Clinton lead, not a Florida poll.
155/156 SAK & SAT!(see #116 above)
158 Ah, thanks for that Kieran - i thought the lead was nearer 20%, which is what the betting odds are reflecting.
146 - Yes there is a possibility of that, but it depends on him being viable in enough places which I question. My thinking on this has yo-yoed on this as follows:
1. Edwards needs to be at 15% statewide. In most polling he is in the low teens, therefore it is unpredictable whether he will manage it and it could come down to just a few percentage points.
2. Because a lot of delegate are allocated by congressional districts Edwards should pick up some there even in states where he isn’t viable statewide.
3. However there are relatively few congressional districts with more than 5 delegates. Therefore to pick up delegates he will need 25, 33% plus in places.
All in all it’s very difficult to tell how it will play out - but I think there is a decent chance that Edwards will have more delegates after Feb 5th than the gap between Clinton and Obama.