Is this where McCain will virtually clinch it?
January 29th, 2008
…or will the Romney money machine seize victory?
And so the next US election night on Politicalbetting. This time it’s Florida, the biggest state to decide so far and the one that has seen the most fierce battles for the GOP crown.
The Democratic party does have an election but because, like Michigan a fortnight ago, the state defied the national party on the timing what’s decided by today’s voting will not count. However if it the delegate count between Obama and Clinton gets really tight you can see this one being resolved in the courts.
For Rudolph Giuliani this is the day of reckoning. His plan was to ignore the earlier contrst and focus on the big states with lots of delegates where winner takes all. If that falls down tonight his campaign is in serious trouble.
John McCain and Mitt Romney have been topping the polls though the betting today has moved towards the 71 year old from Arizona. As well as the delegates at stake tonight the results could give the winner momentum going for the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses on a week today.
A factor that needs to be taken into account is the number of absentee ballots - many people voted some time ago before McCain became the front runner. There’s been some speculation that this will help Giuliani.
GOP nomination betting is here.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“Is this where McCain will virtually clinch it?”
Guys smarter than me think yes, but I persist in saying no.
1. Because think Romney will win tonight; and
2. Even if he doesn’t, Romney’s money and rallying of Bushies, country-clubers and other JMcC-haters will make him competitive in many SuperTuesday states despite McCain’s post-FL momentum.
High turnout in Florida today apparently. That says little about the winner though - except that it won’t be Giuliani.
2. “However if it the delegate count between Obama and Clinton gets really tight you can see this one being resolved in the courts.”
Mike, think state and (esp) federal courts will be LOATH to get involved in intra-party dispute, regarless of how many millions of voters are affected.
Which means the true court of first resort is DNC, the court of appeal is Credentials Committee of the Demcratic National Convention, and the supreme court is the floor of the convention.
I always though Santos VS Vinnick was the ultimate fantasy politics but i think the real think could be even better.
SSI, Romney has been fighting the media every step of the way. It won’t all be over if he loses tonight, but it will be verrry hard for him to recapture the narrative.
3 - Could not have put it better myself.
2 - I think Giuliani will be more competitive than is thought. Don’t think he will come anywhere near, plus there are rumours that if he bombs then he drops out and endorses McCain.
4 - True, and an Obama v McCain contest is eerily similar.
When do the polls close UK time?
ELLINGTON RULES OK
Pity about equaliser
The Watford!
It would be interesting to know how the absentee ballots have been split between McCain and Romney. My understanding was that Romney had the better organisation to get the absentee vote out, but McCain had the most voter support.
I fear (for my betting position) that the state is key to Romney - he needs to win it to keep up the momentum that he gained in the last week for Super Tuesday.
Gordon has been nominated for ‘Villain if the Year’ NME music awards.
Tony is up there too. Tough call.
9 I think 0100 or 0200. Florida crosses a time zone, apparently (!), so presumably the results are kept back until everyone’s voted.
Re: credentials fights at Democratic National Conventions, historically these are as American as apple pie.
Most epic perhaps was in the 1964 when the “Freedom Democrats” of Mississippi led by Fannie Mae Harmer sent a delegation to Atlantic City that challenged the right of the lily-white Mississippi “Regular Democrats” to represent the Magnolia State at the Democratic National Convention.
Here is an excerpt (via wiki) of Ms Harmer’s electrifying testimony to the Credentials Committee:
“All of this is on account, we want to register, to become first-class citizens, and if the Freedom Democratic Party is not seated now, I question America. Is this America, the land of the free and the home of the brave where we have to sleep with our telephones off the hooks because our lives be threatened daily because we want to live as decent human beings - in America?”
When Sen. Hubert Humphrey, LBJ’s choice for VP running mate and himself a reknowned fighter for civil rights (most famously on behalf of the successful “minority report” for a strong civil rights plank in the 1948 Democratic platform) tried to broker a compromise between the Regulars and the Freedom Democrats, Ms Harmer blasted him thusly:
“Do you mean to tell me that your position is more important than four hundred thousand black people’s lives? Senator Humphrey, I know lots of people in Mississippi who have lost their jobs trying to register to vote. I had to leave the plantation where I worked in Sunflower County, Mississippi. Now if you lose this job of Vice-President because you do what is right, because you help the MFDP, everything will be all right. God will take care of you. But if you take [the nomination] this way, why, you will never be able to do any good for civil rights, for poor people, for peace, or any of those things you talk about. Senator Humphrey, I’m going to pray to Jesus for you.”
After the Miss Freedom Dems rejected a final compromise offer (”We didn’t come all this way for no two seats.” Fannie Mae gave her most famous quote of all:
“I’m tired of being sick and tired.”
In 1964 the White electorate of Misissippi bolted for Barry Goldwater and the Republican Party, and most never looked back.
In 1968 Fannie Lou Harmer was seated at the Democratic National Convention as a member of the Mississippi delegation. The Freedom Democrats had become the Regulars.
12 - Surely it will go to Amy Whinehouse?
9-13. Polls close in FL at 7pm local time, which for the Eastern time zone is 12 Midnight UK time, and for Central time zone (Escambia, Okloosa and other western Panhandle counties) is 1 am UK.
Think that EST counties will start releasing early returns before polls close in CST counties. Don’t know what protocol is for exit polling, but even if they are embargoed until after polls close in CST, would expect leaks.
One word answer: No, even if he does win tonight.
15 Both are victims of their own shortcomings but Amy’s impact only on herself.
I never thought I’d say this but VOTE GORDON.
Evening all
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7214709.stm
In my view, the most significant story of the day without a doubt. The cost of adult social care is one of the really big issues facing our country and society today. Many local authorities are running into serious financial trouble because the rising cost of care (more people coming into or needing care) combined with the inflation in those costs which is well above RPI together with poor Government funding especially in the SE is leading to even well-run Councils struggling.
When Councils like Surrey, Kent and West Sussex are forced to make major cutbacks in library and youth provision, this isn’t because of Council inefficiencies but because the rising cost of adult social care wipes out all efficiency savings.
How do we provide appropriate and adequate care for our elderly ? Should Government be seeking to encourage individuals to set aside some of their earnings into a “social care allowance” or should we looking at a more general solution ?
Not as interesting as Florida or as much betting on it but still a BIG question…
14 - It’s Fannie Lou Hamer not either of Fannie Mae Harmer or Fannie Lou Harmer
early exit poll snippits from Florida -
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/29/ap/politics/main3767211.shtml
but no candidate data
21 - Looking at the race profile there, is it feasilble that Obama could be third?
22 - only if they voted on strictly racial lines.
20 - Thanks muchly for correcting my incompetence - tis indeed Fannie Lou Hamer
One reason for telling the tale of FLH & the MFDP, is to illustrate the psychic hurdle that Clinton or anyone else for that matter would face in trying to deny Obama the nomination via crass political strategem IF he had a solid pluarity of delegates going into the national convention.
And it most certainly wouldn’t be just Blacks would would get rilled up.
Just imagine legions of old White guys and gals storming the podium, chaining themselves to their state’s standards, and otherwise raging against the machine - would make Chicago ‘68 look like a somewhat rowdy Campfire Girls jamboree.
Further to Fannie Lou Hamer story from Sea Shanty Irish, LBJ, that paragon in Hilary’s eyes, referred to her as “that illiterate woman” - though if it was LBJ I’d of thought there would have been a swaer word or two between illiterate and woman.
21 Those stats are fuzzy but seem to favour Romney. Conventional wisdom is that economy is his strength, whereas Iraq is McCain and Terror Giuliani/McCain. Immigration is definitely a Romney gimme. If as few as 15% have it as their most important issue, I’d have to back Romney to take Florida. Against that, the high proportion of older voters is marginally favourable to McCain and Giuliani.
Cameron was right to respond as he did to Conway. The Conservatives are the party of decency and accountability.
However employing friends and family as researchers is a well established practice - this expose is a desperate act of party with 30% poll ratings. After all Mandelson …[MODERATED]
I hope now we can see a full expose of Neil Kinnock’s appointment of his son to head of the British Council in Russia. Awarding a Diplomatic post to your son is an act of sleaze to the highest order.
21 - Exit numbers (economy top issue, Cubans only 1 of every 20 GOP primary voters) look good for Romney
Also for Clinton, with oldest Dem electorate yet (compared to other states), with only 1 in 10 Dem primary votes Black which is same as Hispanics.
But Edwards has limited natural base in FL, same as Huckabee, though he (Edwards that is) should have enough votes plus geo base in North FL to win some (theoretical at this stage) delegates.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
First wave of exits McCain 34.3, Romney 32.6, Guiliani 15.3, Huckabee 12
26 - Not much reason to think high number of geezers helps Romney. Seem to remember than crosstabs on one recent poll showed he was doing best with voters under 30.
Perhaps you are thinking of large numbers of former New Yorkers sunning themselves in the sunset years in the Sunshine State. Then keep in mind that most of these are registered Democrats. Plus methinks they are outnumbered by elderly former Midwesterners.
Fate be dammed, I’m pronouncing Giuliani DOA.
28 Black voters actually made up ~20% of the Dem vote according to the article. This will definitely keep Obama out of third, which to my mind is all he needs to make Florida go away. I agree with you that the low number of Cubans seems favourable to Romney, but I don’t know what the ’standard’ Cuban level of support is.
Intrade reaction has McCain up a fair bit to 64.
27 - Hoping we will see expose of the nepotism practiced by the House of Guelph-Hanover-Saxe-Coburg-Gotha-Windsor-Mountbatten
30 Against that, the high proportion of older voters is marginally favourable to McCain and Giuliani.
27 - Hoping we will see expose of the nepotism practiced by the House of Guelph-Hanover-Saxe-Coburg-Gotha-Windsor-Mountbatten
30 - Excuse my idiocy, in first sentance substitute “Giuliani” for “Romney”
29 - the updates appear to favour Romney
35 - Is there anyone out there who can confirm whether or not seniors polled well for Giuliani?
Al Fresco, i thought it was someone from the BNP who exposed conway, please tell me they’re not polling 30%?
37 - What do you mean by that? The democragraphic info, or updated horserace numbers?
38 I’m looking at a poll from Jan 23rd right now. Giuliani does best with 18-29 and 46-65; his support with >65 was only 16% even then. Romney was leading McCain by 6% in the 46-65 group and 1% in the >65 group.
39 BNP at 30%? No, I dont think so. Although I think the Labour Party is doing their best to help their ratings.
I guess as the Labour Party helps the BNP’s ratings, it isnt a great leap of imagination for them to give the nod.
Someone just took some McCain at 85 on intrade - guessing this is still the initial reaction to exit poll data.
*demographic* even
McCain last matched on Betfair at 1.17 for Florida primary.
The Naples News is doing a live exit poll
About an hour ago Romney was leading McCain 107 to 66 (1.6 ratio) now its only 126 to 87 (1.4 ration). From this massively unscientific poll later voters seem to be to moving to McCain.
Hillary Clinton is crushing Obama.
http://naplesnews.com/news/2008/jan/29/exit-polls-find-out-whos-leading-share-you-opinion/
40 - I misread a bit of it - I seemed to skip the main bit -
‘The markets on Romney, at least on intrade, popped up when you posted the links to the small exit polls, and then dropped significantly when you posted the larger exit poll data. Romney is still down, on average, from where he was throughout the day. I think, no joke, your posts can affect intrade.
Ha! The power!’
ignore what I said - getting tired and now off to bed. Will hear the end result on Radio Scotland in the morning.
Too early to think McCain has this in the bag
Come on mike, why block out the info about said researcher? Employing loved ones as researchers is a great westminster tradition.
remember the Indian model working as a researcher? She was somehow mixed up with Libyans and turned up later with bruises…cant remember her name though,
While we await more numbers of dubious provenance (in FL that includes the election authorities) here is a brief musical interlude, featuring Florida’s Poet Laureate. Though should point out JB was actually born in Mobile, Alabama (which was part of both Spanish and British Florida and is just across the Escambia River from Pensacola.
Parotheads of the World, Unite!
MARGARITAVILLE
Jimmy Buffett
Nibblin’ on sponge cake
watchin’ the sun bake
All of those tourists covered with oil
Strumming my six string
On my front porch swing
Smell those shrimp
They’re beginning to boil
Wasted away again
In Margaritaville
Searchin’ for my
Lost shaker of salt
Some people claim
Tthat there’s a woman to blame
But I know
It’s nobody’s fault
Don’t know the reason
Stayed here all season
With nothing to show
But this brand new tattoo
But it’s a real beauty
A Mexican cutie
How it got here
I haven’t a clue
Wasted away again
In Margaritaville,
Searching for my
Lost shaker of salt
Some people claim
That there’s a woman to blame
Now I think
Hell it could be my fault
I blew out my flip flop
Stepped on a pop top
Cut my heel
Had to cruise on back home
But there’s booze in the blender
And soon it will render
That frozen concoction
That helps me hang on
Wasted away again
In Margaritaville
Searchin’ for my
Lost shaker of salt
Some people claim
That there’s a woman to blame
But I know
It’s my own damn fault
Fox News Early Exit Polls
Senior Citizens:
Mccain 40
Romney 31
Military Vets:
Mccain 37
Romney 36
Conservative
Romney 47
Mccain 27
I’m surprised by the veterans numbers as I thought Mccain would do better than that.
Posted on NRO, if I’m reading this right - he is saying the figures below do not include absentees?
The first wave of exit poll numbers, including absentees: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent.
UPDATE: Interestingly a second source — yes, guardians of the exit poll data, I have not one but two spies within your ranks! — tells me these are the “second wave” numbers. Also, this source heard these numbers DON’T include the absentee voters.
19. That’s why the R4 news at six o’clock made it the lead story. Not sensational stuff, but has long term significance.
The variations in care across the UK are a scandal.
46 - With respect to demographics, Naples (Collier County) is both old and rich.
51. from that you’d think romney would be claiming the win easily
Labour and the BNP are now working together?!
So much has happened that i’ve missed, please tell me more, Al Fresco.
52 - Not quite sure what exit poll methodology would be for surveying absentees. Unless you are talking absentee ballots returned at the polls (which is valid in WA and is a popular option, but don’t know if that’s possible in FL).
52 - Nat Review also claimed that “updated” exits (think this was what Marcia refered to) out of Pensacola were showing local landslide for Romney.
55 Ain’t nobody claiming nothing til at least a few real votes are counted & reported.
If anyone’s interested, Romney to win Florida at 3/1 right now on Betfair (and you could have had him at 3.4/1 till I took it).
Guiliani last matched at 100 for Florida and at 40 for the GOP nomination with Betfair.
Markets are calming down a bit after the overreaction to the first exit polls. I took some Romney to trade later tonight.
Don’t tell me we have another New Hampshire here…
Fox news exit poll data looks good for Romney so does CBS exit poll data regarding Economy.
Of course I could just be reading all this completely wrong!
OBAMA TO WIN!
My strategy has been to buy into Giuliani when he is value and sell later. I admit I bought in to early but what with the absentee ballots as votes get counted I expect him to tighten for a while though lose.
BTW perhaps punters should factor into their calculus the recent passing of Gordon B. Hinckley, President of the Church of Jesus Christ of Later Day Saints.
Omen? Harbinger? Coincidence?
Punters should also ask themselves, how will a guy who shuns Coca Cola for religious reasons fare in the Georgia primary?
HELP!
Please can anyone post links to live US news (CNN, Fox, MSNBC etc) covering the primary that I can download on a work laptop - i.e. that doesn’t require a software download.
many thanks
CNN has an exit poll update in a couple of minutes
65 - Am not sure the absentees will be counted tonight, think that may well occure later in the week.
On the other hand, think early voting ballots will be reported tonight, perhaps in the early numbers, though this may vary by county.
However, personllyy doubtful there enough there there to overcome his negative margin in the Election Night final numbers.
Anyone been able to get onto the NRO site? I think every punter in the Western Hemisphere is trying to hit that campaign blog right now.
70 - Did maybe half hour ago, topy
I would imagine that the Labour MP who intervened twice in the Lisbon debate yesterday in order to suggest that the Lib Dems in general, and Simon Hughes in particular. should be barred from contributing to the debate, could easily (if erroneously) be interpreted as someone who would actually prefer 66 MPs of a rather different party sitting opposite him.
70 I have no problem accessing NRO.
http://www.cnn.com/
Romney at 4.8 on Spreadfair may be good value at the moment. Even if he comes second in Florida, the perception that this is now a two-horse race - with the conservative vote coalescing behind Mitt - could well see that price going up ahead of 5th Feb. If he wins, even more so. McCain already priced in for the nomination at 10 or so.
re 19, Stodge, “In my view, the most significant story of the day without a doubt.”
With regret it isn’t. It may well be the most important and deserving of our consideration, but it wont get that.
“The cost of adult social care is one of the really big issues facing our country and society today. Many local authorities are running into serious financial trouble because the rising cost of care (more people coming into or needing care) combined with the inflation in those costs which is well above RPI together with poor Government funding especially in the SE is leading to even well-run Councils struggling.
When Councils like Surrey, Kent and West Sussex are forced to make major cutbacks in library and youth provision, this isn’t because of Council inefficiencies but because the rising cost of adult social care wipes out all efficiency savings.”
I note you mention Conservative councils as well run and I thank you for that. In West Sussex our grant has been derisory for years.
“How do we provide appropriate and adequate care for our elderly ? Should Government be seeking to encourage individuals to set aside some of their earnings into a “social care allowance” or should we looking at a more general solution ?”
Well, that kind of goes against the habit of means testing does it not? Which is the problem with means testing. It rewards the feckless as well as protecting the unfortunate whereas we only want to protect the unfortunate.
It is a difficult problem to overcome.
Sidelight on the Conway affair.
Used to have a WA State Senator, a Democrat who’d once been chair of the King County Republican Party, who employed his wife as his legislative aide. Legal but dubious, though she did do the job, no doubt about that.
Same guy was lengendary for essentially shaking down a different lobbyist each day of each legislative session to buy him (and generally his wife) lunch. Got so bad that lobbyist were know to duck behind the marble pillars of the Legislative Building when the clock was advancing on the noon hour and they saw him coming.
Final straw was when it turned out that when the legislature wasn’t in session (which is most of the time, thank you Jaysus) the Senator and his wife spent all their time at their lovely home on the north shore of The Big Island of Hawaii.
75. it is yes
Re 69, Sea Shanty Irish “65 - Am not sure the absentees will be counted tonight, think that may well occure later in the week.”
Who do I sue for buggering up my betting strategy?
While we’re waiting for Florida a new Rasmussen poll, conducted after SC, has Obama and Clinton neck and neck in Connecticut. The last poll there after NH had Cliton up by 14.
Clinton 40 Obama 40 Edwards 11
Just out of curiosity, how many of you pb.comers have actually visited or lived in Florida?
Reason I ask is, have the impression its a popular destination for folks in UK and rest of EU. And wondered if that affected yer punting in any way.
OT Conway affair. Isn’t it customary not to crucify politicians families? Some of the stuff on Conway’s family in tomorrows papers is pretty vicious. They might well have benefited from his largess but they can’t surely be considered part of it?
81 - I’ve been there. Doesn’t really affect me. Try not to be too anecdotal in analysis.
81 - never been there - just California/Nevada/Arizona
80 - Think I’m hearing a wee bit of ice cracking underneath the Clinton campaign.
Like Vermont, the demographics of Connecticutt are more favorable to Obama than New Hamphire, Maine, Rhode Island or even Massachusetts.
Note that half of CN is in the NYC orbit. But the other half orients toward Boston.
81. I watched Miami Vice, so I reckon there’s a strong law and order vote. (Actually maybe this is what Giuliani thought as well)
79 - Well, you could start with suing FL Secretary of State in the FL Supreme Court. Perhaps Big Al could suggest a lawyer?
86 - Of course Thompson had the Law & Order vote sewed up!
Fontainebleau Hilton for two weeks on a job while there were riots going on in Miami. It’s the most overtly racist place I’ve been to in the US. Maybe anywhere come to think of it. But that was a while ago.
re 82 Roger “OT Conway affair. Isn’t it customary not to crucify politicians families? Some of the stuff on Conway’s family in tomorrows papers is pretty vicious. They might well have benefited from his largess but they can’t surely be considered part of it?”
As far as I know it isn’t and as far as I know we have nothing to do with it.
You are right, what ever Conway’s sins are they are his, but the press is the press and Labour’s spin machine is Labour’s spin machine.
Interestingly enough this affair has sparked mutual reportings. It can only go downhill from here.
Re 87, Sea Shanty Irish “79 - Well, you could start with suing FL Secretary of State in the FL Supreme Court. Perhaps Big Al could suggest a lawyer?”
If I can get it on a no win no fee basis I am up for that
81 Yep, drove down the west coast to Key West and up the east coast. Was in 92, shortly after the hurricane - looked like the place had suffered a nuclear strike. Still, made up for all the Wildlife Reserves being trashed by finding a shack still selling Key Lime Pie Milkshake. Damn that was good!!
82. Oh give over. Conway dragged his own family into this, and they don’t sound like shrinking violets to me…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/news/2008/01/29/nconway629.xml
82 - Agree with you 100%.
Along this same line of discusssion, heard from a Boston politco about a relative of the late US House Speaker John McCormack of Boston.
The Speaker’s relation was a decent fellow, but not the brightest bulb in the lighthouse. So they gave him a title, paycheck, desk, chair and telephone is a small broomcloset of an office in City Hall. And left him there.
Now the fellow was a tad embarrassed that he had no visible raison d’etre in civic affairs. So whenever someone would come down the hall and pass his office, he would quickly pick up the phone on his desk, and pretend he was having a conversation with some municiple poobah.
A habit that earned him his nickname: “Dial Tone”
90. Benedict. I can never stomach the holier than thou stuff from politicians. You would have thought Aitken’s ‘Simple sword of truth’ would have taught them all a lesson.
The Conway affair does indicate the loss of power of the old guard who rose in the late 1980s and 1990s. There is, as has been mentioned in several areas today, a real disconnect between the established parliamentary ranks and activists (probably supported by the newer MPs who have entered the House this decade).
The Conway affair does indicate the loss of power of the old guard who rose in the late 1980s and 1990s. There is, as has been mentioned in several areas today, a real disconnect between the established parliamentary ranks and activists (probably supported by the newer MPs who have entered the House this decade).
Part of FL that I’m most familiar with personally is the Panhandle, esp. Pensacola & Ft Walton Beach. Have also spent some time in Tallahassee, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona, Silver Spring, Cape Canaveral, Orlando, Ft Lauderdale, Miami & Miami Beach.
Thing to keep in mind about FL is that the place is an Empire. As far from Pensacola to Key West, as from Pensacola to Cincinnati, Ohio. Plus in old days FL extended even further west, all the way to Baton Rouge, Lousiana and even beyond.
First results are coming in at CNN’s website - 4.000 counted, Romney leads 31-28.
Here we go. Votes being counted.
Does anyone know when the polls close?
101 - just did at 12 gmt
Fox reporting that McCain actually has exit poll lead amongst those considering economy most important issue (as well as seniors, Hispanics, people thinking Gov Crist endorsement important..)
For anyone inclining to think the Exit Polls seal the deal, this from AP on the methodology of the exits…
“From partial samples of 970 Republican primary voters and 989 Democratic primary voters conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International in 40 precincts across Florida on Tuesday. The samples include 235 Republican voters and 294 Democratic voters who voted early or absentee and were surveyed in the past week by telephone. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 4 percentage points for each primary.”
Think that settles a knife-edge race?
Me neither.
http://thepage.time.com/more-fox-news-exit-poll-results/
Top issue:
Immigration
Romney 45, McCain 22, Giuliani 17, Huckabee 14
Economy
McCain 38, Romney 34, Huckabee 12, Giuliani 10
Economy is a big surprise, that was supposed to be Romney’s ace.
Lol at the price movements based on 0.02% of the vote.
93. Rod. I don’t think being vulgar is a good enough reason to possibly destroy a couple of young peoples careers.
i read a good article on realclearpolitics.com about absentee and early ballots and how this could affect the result. The gist, as i read it, was that giuliani is over-represented in early ballots, many of which were cast a month or so ago when he was front-runner. So i’d expect a slightly better performance than the polls suggest for rudi. Still don’t think he’ll come close to big mac or mitt tho. But if you look at the where rudi’s votes would have gone had they not already been committed to rudi in early ballots, i guess that McCain, as he is more socially moderate, would suffer more than mitt. Given how tight the polls are, this could be enought to tip it for romney and my money would be on him.
40 K now reported and McCain leads 29-28, Clinton crushing Obama 58-21, but I don’t expect that to hold.
Early returns from two small counties:
BRADFORD (north Fla near Jacksonville) 5% pcts
R 21
McC 22
G 16
H 30
P 5
oth 7
C 33
E 30
O 29
oth 8
NASSAU (far north FL, on coast north of Jax) 4% pcts
R 31
McC 28
G 13
H 20
P 3
oth 4
C 47
E 24
O 25
oth 4
ST LUCIE (central FL Coast) 4% pcts
R 28
McC 35
G 20
H 12
P 4
oth 1
C 54
E 13
O 29
oth 3
HILLSBOROUGH (Tampa) less than 1%
R 23
McC 34
G 19
H 16
P 3
oth 5
C 55
E 15
O 26
oth 4
Re 95, Roger “90. Benedict. I can never stomach the holier than thou stuff from politicians. You would have thought Aitken’s ‘Simple sword of truth’ would have taught them all a lesson.”
Actually I thought Aitkin’s line was good, and would have used it myself, assuming I knew I was not lying through my teeth. It appears he did not and this is where they all fall down. They do something wrong and then try to front it out.
Mind you I note Derek Conway is of course Labour born and bred! (We do sexual scandals they do the financial ones
)
MANATEE (Dems only) Tampa/St Pete suburbs 5%
C 53
E 16
O 28
oth 3
I’m now all green on Florida. It’s a close one…
1% of precints reporting, McCain lead by 250 odd votes !!
98 SSI Apparently years ago Florida offered the panhandle to Alabama for a million dollars but Alabama turned it down !
Intrade holding steady at 70 for McCain, no change since the post-exit poll corrections.
I cannot understand that 100.000 votes is equal to 1% of precincts.
Larger precincts? No need to make them equal sized if it’s winner takes all.
If it stays close, then whatever the result, it shows McCain can keep pace in a closed primary, even without his usual reserve of independent voters. And I think just over half the contests on 5th Feb are open. Plus McCain has poll advantages in some of the closed states such as New York.
SUWANNE (rural east Panhandle) 6% pcts
R 37
McC 24
G 10
H 28
P 2
oth 0
C 50
E 26
O 14
oth 9
107. Are you quite mad? Anyone who flaunts his boorish idiocy in the press when it suits him can’t complain when the press highlight his boorish idiocy when it suits them…..
Re 107 Roger “93. Rod. I don’t think being vulgar is a good enough reason to possibly destroy a couple of young peoples careers.”
Well said, Henry is vulgar, but then he is young and is entitled to be allowed to grow up.
What total number of votes are we expecting?
OSCEOLA (Kissimmee, rural/exurban interior central FL south of Orlando) 27% pcts
R 34
McC 32
G 9
H 21
P 2
oth 1
C 60
E 16
O 22
oth 2
Fox reporting that some voting machines have broken down in one county….
Re 123, Rod, “107. Are you quite mad? Anyone who flaunts his boorish idiocy in the press when it suits him can’t complain when the press highlight his boorish idiocy when it suits them…..”
Sorry, we are talking about a boy of what 24, with the social skills and acumen of a 10 year old? Are you sure you are not being a tad harsh?
From the Real Clear Politics live Florida thread:
With Rudy Giuliani facing what increasingly looks like the end of his campaign, many supporters seem set to join another campaign. A fundraiser close to the Giuliani campaign tells RCP that at least six New Jersey county chairs for the former Mayor ready to jump to the McCain team, though they will wait until Giuliani drops his bid. A McCain win in New Jersey, which earlier this year changed their rules to award all the state’s delegates to the primary winner, would push him that much closer to the nomination. Perhaps better for the Senator, fundraisers headed his way could help refill what are said to be empty coffers
PASCO (New Port Richey, north suburbs of Tampa/St Pete) 20% pcts
R 29
McC 31
G 19
H 14
P 3
oth 3
C 61
E 16
O 18
oth 4
113. ‘Mind you I note Derek Conway is of course Labour born and bred!’
When I read that in the Telegraph I wondered whether that was the biggest chutzpah they’d ever tried to pull off!
COLLIER (Naples, south Gulf Coast, old rich people) 1% pcts
R 41
M 26
G 21
H 7
P 2
oth 3
C 58
E 15
O 24
oth 3
Has to be a chance that the winner won’t be known until the postal votes are all counted - what does that do for Super Tuesday Big Mo???
where can i get on-line live video feed of the results? Can’t find it on cnn, nbc, msnbc… goddam it!
Where are you seeing these results? All I can see on http://www.cnn.com is static stuff - the exit poll etc.
Are the Democrats voting as normal knowing they wont count or is it just a few refuseniks?
Re 131 Roger “113. ‘Mind you I note Derek Conway is of course Labour born and bred!’
When I read that in the Telegraph I wondered whether that was the biggest chutzpah they’d ever tried to pull off!”
Well you can have yours back if they are rubbish
Seriously though, I know what you mean.
VOLUSIA (Daytona Beach, central Atlantic coast) R= 32% pcts, D= 25% pcts
R 35
McC 36
G 12
H 14
P 4
oth 1
C 55
E 16
O 27
oth 2
128. “Sorry, we are talking about a boy of what 24, with the social skills and acumen of a 10 year old?”
Well, someone ought to tell the Cambridge University Admissions Office their standards are slipping….
135. I’m using the Florida Sec of State’s site which is updating almost every minute…
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/
CNN appears to be the most up to date - anyone got better?
MONROE (Key West) 96% pcts
R 23
M 45
G 18
H 9
P 4
oth 1
C 53
E 15
O 29
oth 3
Corporate Romney NOT good fit for Margaritaville!
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL
Lots of intrade action last 2 minutes - McCain ballooned from 60ish to 85.
SSI - what website are you getting those results from?
Want to find out about Polk County
141. McCain pulls ahead by 3% with 9% counted. It’s going his way… source Politico.com
10% of precincts reported 34-30 to McCain
145 - http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL
I’m assuming the precincts are of unequal size. So how many voters are we expecting?
It wouldn’t be a Florida poll without problems, Fox is reporting that there is a delay with the count in Putnam City, I only hope that it doesn’t put a negative emphasis on the thing for the overall winner.
So by how many points do we expect Clinton to win tonight? +10?
more like 15-2+ points, the Clinton win
148 - thanks
Florida DoS state updates less, but is occasionally ahead. Now has 142-139k in McCain’s favour, while CNN has 142-129k. Hrrrm.
150. 25%
SARASOTA (central Gulf Coast) 83% pcts
R 33
McC 39
G 15
H 9
P 4
oth 1
C 52
E 13
O 32
oth 2
Shade tree analysis:
Dem finish:
Clinton 1 (obviously!)
Obama 2
Edwards 3
Republican too close to call between Romney & McCain, must see what happens in Big Three: Miami/Dade, Palm Beach & Brevard
BUT Guiliani is clearly not in contention for 1st place, and with zero returns yet from the Central Time Zone (including Pensacola & Ft Walton) its possible albeit unlikely that Huckabee may push Rudy to 4th.
MSNBC saying that 2 million Democrats might have turned out for the primary that doesn’t count…..
I predicted yesterday that a McCain win would shorten him to 1/3 for the nomination. Last trade at Intrade 75 = 1/3.
Fred Thompson’s got more than 7000 votes so far. Are they write ins or postal ballots before he dropped out? 685 mad people have still plumped for Hunter, even though he’s not in the race.
Rep-Dem vote balance about 54-46, so looks as though most though not all Democrats decided to go and vote anyway - and Clinton zooming home with a 20% lead. Possibly slows Obama’s momentum a bit before Tuesday?
Sorry, haven’t been following posts, have been getting my numbers via politico.com
58 - Ballots were printed weeks ago, before candidates that have dropped out did their swan dive.
159 - I think Clinton’s large win will mean something. Although it will not be reported very much in the UK. Note the BBC’s top global story is the republican primary, no mention of Florida, even though there is a legal challenge to get the delegates back.
Guiliani at 350! More to the point, McCain at 4 for the Presidency on Betfair - won’t last.
59 - Not if national media have anything to say about it - just watch.
163 I’ve taken all at 4 or better for president. You won’t see it again
159 - Considering that in previous states the dems have been routing the GOP in turnout there’s more than a suggestion that a lot of dems have just stayed home.
161 - explains a lot.
Brevard: 62% reporting, McCain 37%, Romney 32%, 9/11man and Huckabee tight on 13%.
163 - “Guiliani at 350! More to the point, McCain at 4 for the Presidency on Betfair - won’t last” ???
Romney you mean, surely
From RCP again (Jay Cost rocks, by the way):
Another interesting note from metro Tampa. With 77% of precincts reporting in Pasco County, John McCain has a 2,800 vote lead. There is still an insignificant number of precincts from the other metro Tampa counties, but this is an intriguing early result. JAY COST
162 Clinto win will mean something. Just not near as much as if
1) DNC hadn’t fecked it up
2) Clinton hadn’t fecked it up
Re 139 Rod Crosby “128. “Sorry, we are talking about a boy of what 24, with the social skills and acumen of a 10 year old?”
Well, someone ought to tell the Cambridge University Admissions Office their standards are slipping….”
Whereas someone ought to tell you that you are being a plonker. In fact i think I just have
162 - If, as suggested, she tries to use the result by having a Florida ‘victory’ party the media will come down pretty heavy on her. Why she is doing her best to alienate the Dem leadership who knows?
163 - Oh sorry, was thinking about the nomination
OOH CNN are brave - Hillary Clinton wins Florida primary !!!!
Makes me smile
McCain nearly 4% ahead with 15% counted. It’s over (almost)
Unsurprisingly Fox and CNN call Florida for Clinton.
First numbers out of MIAMI/DADE 0% pcts, total of approx 31k on GOP side, 22k on Dem side; possible these votes may be Early Voting numbers:
R 8
McC 41
G 42
H 6
P 2
oth 2
C 58
E 9
O 30
oth 3
Are the absentees being counted now or later?
20% reported Mccain 4-31 but that equates to 20,000 vote lead
34-31
172. Night night. Sleep tight. Wake up sober…