Florida election night…. continued
January 30th, 2008CNN calls GOP race for McCain, leads Romney by 3-4 pts
Halperin reporting Rudy will drop out & endorse McCain
Hillary called winner in delegate-free Democrat contest
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CNN barely mentioning Democrats, but not mentioning the emptiness of the primary as much as MSNBC.
With 50 per cent reporting McCain seems to be squeaking it …
Ain’t first past the post beautiful?
47% reporting, but the big counties:
Miami-Dade, 31% reporting, McCain +33% (Romney nowhere here)
Broward, 38% reporting, McCain +16%
Palm Beach, 0% reporting, McCain +9%
Hillsborough, 32% reporting, McCain +6%
Orange, 91% reporting, Romney +0.00000000000000001% (19 votes!)
Pinellas, 18% reporting, McCain +6%
In other words, all the big areas are voting McCain, and are well behind in the count, so he’s going to stretch his lead.
Just read this:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/01/good-night-rudy.html
How does someone who thinks climate change is false and thinks someone like Giuliani “supports” abortion count as “Centre-right”?
4. BBC radio still saying its to close to call but interweb figures sggest the mccain lead is holding? If it wasn’t for New hapshire I’d have gone to bed by now!
I can’t belive the size of he clinton win in the first big state to vote won’t have some effect. if only to keep her cash comming.
4. Not all the big counties, you left out
Duval 24% reporting, Romney +14%
BUT your basic point that McCain looks likely to win appears correct, how much his lead will stretch is still unclear.
6. Problem for Clinton is a lot of her supporters have “maxed out” to their donation limit. Obama’s supporters are, on average, allowed to donate a lot more.
4. the names of those counties bring back hapy memories of hanging chads. Given what you have pointed out I’m surprised no one has called it yet.
Associated Press and Fox call it for McCain
8. It’s only a week to go to Feb 5. The fact she’s got no massive income stream this week will not lose her 10 points. She’s a shoo-in.
Ding dong, CNN says Big Mac beats Plastic Mitt.
NPR calls Florida GOP Primary for John McCain
11 Counting your chickens WAY before they’re hatched.
Anyway, you’re last sentance above should read “He’s a shoe-in” because very obvious now that the Clinton who’s really running for the White House is Bill.
7: cheers, I was kinda scrabbling for population data there, had no idea of Brevard/Duval and some others.
On another note, CNN repeatedly saying they have insiders in both McCain and Giuliani talking about an endorsement. Surely all over if they get that.
11. We still haven’t seen how big the Kennedy bounce will be. Clinton has the edge but I’m going to wait and see.
So what is the effct of the Republicans having a nomine and the Democrats not? If conventional wisdom holds and Mccain winning the big FPTP states on super tuesday ties it up for him but the more proprtional democratic race doesn’t knock obama out with Edwards chalking up a few more elegates with some 15%’. hat does the Democratic establishment do? Can they really afford to let tis drag on while Mccain has the national field to him self?
The only fatal blow to obama would be Edwards endorsin clinton ( unlikely by all acounts?) what happens if neither candidates “loses” and they just keep going to the 9th round?
If Romney loses by 5-6, he should have a hard think before the debate in California tomorrow. This race is over, and the republican party needs to close ranks and stop attacking McCain in the way they do at NRO, Human Events and others.
I will not at all be surprised if Romney - yes Romney - also drops out tomorrow, although it is unlikely.
If Guilliani does quit in the next 24 hours that really piles the pressure on Huckabee too and effectively leaves a two horse race outside the south. The only reason for Huck to stay in is if he’s perceived as taking votes from Romney. As the field narrows though and the binary choice becomes clear the chances of Huck pulling off any further significant performances disappear.
Huckabee will of course be minded to stay in through ST provided he is confident of winning Arkansas …
18 what has struck me about this is that Clinton hsn’ tackd left or pandered particularly to the base and she is still wining. I saw obama on the state of the Union last night seated next to Kennedy with several good shots and thought ” thats good for the nomination but what about the general? ” So far Clinton hasn’t had to do that.
The reason i think she’ll win is that she stil have unexplored political space where as I think he is squeezing the tothpaste ube wth all the “Auidacity of Hype” rhetoric.
19. Huckabee won’t quit. He’s in it for the long haul, if only to give his section of the party a voice.
17. Brokered convention.
18: He probably should, and apparently his campaign haven’t booked any advertising for Feb 5th yet. That’s going to be insanely expensive, so might be the point he decides to pull the plug.
Still, I kinda hope he doesn’t - it pleases me to see Romney getting a good beating.
Giuliani now speaking to supporters in Orlando. Sounding very upbeat (perhaps because he’d no longer beating his head against the wall) BUT also is speaking in the past tense.
Giuliani is talking of his campaign in the past tense……
17. But if as is bein suggested ( eg jan from Norway) the republican field just folds and e have Mccin as nominee within a week then can the Dems allow themselves to go all that way? Isn’t Denver in September?
OT does Jimmy Carter hold any sway? I’m us think of famous democrats who haven’t endorsed anyone yet.
27. I think he’s thought of fondly, but not as someone of any real substance.
Mitt: “countries like Asia or India …..” ROFL
Virtually all of the talking heads this side of Atlantic are saying McCain’s the Man. That Romney will just not be able to withstand the momentum.
Clearly Guiliani is out tomorrow - he clear telegraphed that few minutes ago.
Am guessing Huckabee is out after Super Tuesday one way or another. For one thing, no oates to feed the plowhorse.
And unless Romney can win some significant states on Super Tuesday, he’d be nuts to continue, would be a real downer for his future.
I was wrong about Romney winning Florida, and am starting to feel mistaken re: my previous view that Romney could survive losing Florida.
GOP bottom line: will the establishment rally to Romney to kill off McCain?
OR will they instead rally to McCain, becauase they think he’s a shooin for the nomination AND a better general election candidate?
Who is that disturbing young man just behind Romney? With the stubble?
Scary!
30 - Unless they are more foolish than I think they will swing heavily behind McCain and try build momentum for the general election.
Giuliani is out.
31- I’m more scared of the dead-eyed man with the blue shirt on the left. HUGE Adam’s apple and he looks like all the worst politicos I’ve ever met.
27 Less ready to dismiss Jimmy Carter. And am not sure that it hurts us Democrats to continue our contest. Especially if the best candidate wins the nomination in the end.
BUT there is such a thing as “too much fun” esp. when it comes to politics. Longer nomination campaign OK; brokered convention not OK.
27. Carter not endorsing anyone:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120164702395826651.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_leftbox
Although if push came to shove, it looks like it would be Obama
Am beginning to think the untimely passing of LDS President Hinckley depressed the FL Mormon vote.
re 34, David Roe, “31- I’m more scared of the dead-eyed man with the blue shirt on the left. HUGE Adam’s apple and he looks like all the worst politicos I’ve ever met.”
What? In the blue shirt? I did not notice him until you mentioned him!
37 Just what proportion of the registered republicans are Mormon SSI?
33: “Giuliani is out.”
Hrrrm, CNN backtracking - said “Giuliani suspends campaign” in a banner, now saying he was merely noncommital.
Well I’m off to bed. I’m a litle disappointed because I thought a Romney nomination would fracture the Republicans and perhaps trigger a third party candidacy which would have ment Hllary romped home. I suspect that Mc cai is the only republican that can win. Still i heard yesterday that right track/wrong track rating had hit 75% for wrong track. I just assumed the BEEB reporter had got it wrong. can things be that bad. nd with Buhes ratingas at 30% we’ll just have to hope that the repblican brand is just o toxic that mc cains independence and stature isn’t enough to carry it. at the end of the day jonathan Cainer, the daily mail astrologer said hilliay would win at new year. Some thing to do do with there being a chistms comet for the first time in centuaries apparently.
So whats to debate?
36. He’s clearly in the Obama camp, but I think the Clintons would have to really piss him off for him to make an endorsement.
18 - I’m surprised McCain won this but he has! I think you may be right Jan, listening to Romney now he knows the game is up. I cannot see anyway back from here, this was crucial for Romney.
I lost tonight but fortunately only by a small amount, thankfully.
Also my favourite pollster Mason Dixon got this one wrong. I think Zogby who I don’t usually rate actually got this quite right, McCain +4 I think.
Anyway hope you all made some money tonight. I think were looking at a Clinton-McCain fight, unless Obama can prevail.
33 - Official or speculative?
36 Would be shocked if Carter did not dislike if not despise Clinton. But you & Soc are correct, unlikely for Jimmy to get himself directly involved in the campaign except a) under most dire circumstances and b) in manner totally befitting THE senior Democratic Party stateman.
Especially since Clinton has made such a ferret’s smorgasbord out of the role of distinguished party leader.
40 - Giuliani did not leave the race tonight.
But it’s on his schedule for tomorrow.
30 SSI. There are two “establishments” in conservative America. The party leaders - senators, governors etc. have already begun to close ranks around McCain, witness the important endorsements of Crist and Menendez in Florida. This will become a tsunami tomorrow. They want to win in November, to have an ally in the White House and perhaps a coattail effect to save their own asses in a hard election.
The other establishment is the socalled “movement” - think-tankers, magazines, talk radio, bloggers, organizations (pro-life, gun-owners, anti-tax etc.). Most of them have been very shrill anti-McCain. They tried all they could to defeat him in South Carolina and in Florida, but failed. They must now decide whether to continue fighting and critizing McCain and secure a Hillary victory, in the mistaken belief that this will create a new Goldwater coalition able to win on a radical right-wing program in the future, or to reluctantly go for a man that can win, and really is on board with most of their pet ideas, but not all.
44: A CNN screwup, don’t know what they were thinking, see 40 above. Sorry for misleading, assumed when CNN says something like that it actually had some basis. Silly me.
Not that it matters, he’s not going to carry on and get humiliated in NY/NJ and so on. Surely tomorrow?
Ok McCain speech up shortly. Have a drink every time he says “My friends”
47. There’s also the very large section of organised business, which is strongly pro-Romney.
49. And “my country” and “fellow Americans”.
50 They are hardheaded businessmen. They will go with the winner - no problem.
49: Oh heck, two already. Not going to be able to stand by the end of his speech…..
47 You are right on the money, Jan.
But there is one other component to the current GOP establishment: local conservative Republican activists, including social, economic and security conservatives, with many ticking off two or all three boxes.
These are the precinct committee officers and local party committee leaders, and their local allies and helpers in every community across America.
Think these guys & gals may have a harder time singing Kumbahyah and getting onboard the McCain campaign.
I REALLY like this guy. It’s a shame he has not been candidate in a better time for the GOP.
Hillary will win me money, McCain will make me happy.
50 - Countryclubbers are closely associated with the politico cited by Jan, and while they are pro-Romney they are also pro-pragmatic which is a problem for Mitt as of about an hour ago.
54. Surely that counts as a “base” rather than an “establishment”?
Given that we think its all over whats the crrent view on the Rep VP nomination? Does Mc cain ned to reachout to the right ( Romney/Huckabee) or the centre ( Lieberman?)
Hello hello - McCain thanking his “dear friend Giuliani… conducted himself….exceptional American leader”
My 47 - it should be senator Martinez, not Menendez. Sorry.
54 I agree - they are important for the GOTV in November. That’s why it is important to ASAP stop the mudslinging I’ve increasingly found at NRO and other places recently.
56. I’m not talking about rich suburbanites, who are a base of sorts. I’m talking about powerful corporate America who demand tax cuts, subsidies, low interest rates, regulations repealed, tariffs against foreign competition, free trade with emerging markets, and government contracts.
50 Think the well is already pretty poisoned. If McCain’s truly the one, trick for him will be propitiating the wackos while not alienating the swings, and visa versa.
Best thing that happened tonight was Giuliani going splat. Sign that the Almighty is still looking after drunks, little children and the United States of America.
Get on the Republicans to win the election - this guy is the only one who can beat Hilary. And I think he will
58. I guess it depends on how willing the right are to back him. If they do so easily or are entirely unwilling he’ll go to the centre. If they are hesitant but show signs of coming round he’ll go to the right.
Can’t see Romney becoming VP though. I don’t see what he brings on board other than money, which will be forthcoming for whoever is the nominee. There are plenty of genuine social and fiscal conservatives around if that’s what’s needed.
NBC confirming that Rudy will endorse McCain tomorrow at the Reagan Library
58 If he wipes the floor on ST he will have a free hand and time to wait and see who the democrats plump for (the effect of an early victory for the most moderate republican candidate on a Dem race going through to March 4th is another topic again). Certainly McCain’s age makes the VP choice more relvant for him. I’d consider someone reassuring who also touches a different key constituency - Colin Powell say !!!
66. Colin Powell could be a very good choice. As would be Condoleeza Rice.
58 Lieberman said today he won’t be a VP candidate again
31. 38. Who? Where? Pictures? Link?
IF McCain wipes the floor on ST (bearing in mind that most states are winner take all) and effectively wraps up the nomination then he can start tacking back into the centre while Clinton and Obama are still trying to energise the Dem base, alienating less partisan citizens and doing McCain’s character assassination effort for him.
In such circs masterly inactivity would seem to be a decent option. Perhaps he might do some global travel stunts to underline the experience gap on national security, but prime focus will be on positioning himself to appeal to independent voters and potential switchers (McCain Democrats).
Once we reach November I doubt conservatives will have much difficulty deciding who is the lesser evil.
In retrospect, the endorsements by Martinez and Crist may have made the racers edge.
And both endorsements are evidence for Jan’s basic argument, that the establishment dislikes McCain less than the prospect of going down the tubes with Romney.
To paraphrase Rummy, truly one of the old breed of GOP pigsbut, key sectors of the establishment are more willing to deal with prospect of McCain’s unknown knows, than with the known unknowns of a Democrat in the White House.
Think they (and millions of others) may be underestimating Romney and overestimating McCain. But must admit that Romney’s performance to date has with exception of Michigan been underwhelming. And John McCain has been amazing, frankly. Including tonight.
Believe the focus of the race now turns from the beaches and cities and suburbs and stripmalls of Florida to the beaches and cities and suburbs and stripmalls of CALIFORNIA.
While Rice and Powell would be interesting choices I think you’ll find the tea leaves say Huckabee.
66, 67. I disagree. McCain needs a certified conservative as VP. Powell is not, more of a RINO. Rice might be, but have fallen out of favour recently. Look for governors Sanford (SC) or Pawlenty (MN), although maybe the latter is not seen as conservative enough.
I noticed the several references to Reagan in tonight’s victory speech. Look for more of that in the weeks to come. McCain is politically not very far from the republican icon.
And - I do believe McCain will beat Hillary (or Obama) in November, taking all three of the pivotal states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Just doing a little delegate arithmethic on GOP side. Winner needs 1200 or so. Currently (including Florida’s winner-take-all today), they’re at McCain 93, Romney 59. Here’s Super Tuesday and number of delegates at stake, in all those with >40 (WTA=winner takes all):
California 173 : McCain nearly 10% ahead, and that’s before Florida.
NY 101 : WTA, and with Giuliani endorsing they’re all McCain’s
Georgia 70: Huckabee wins easily
Illinois 70: anyone got some polls?
Missouri 58: WTA, and last polls are tight between Huckabee/McCain.
Tennessee 55: Romney nowhere, 7% last poll
Arizona 53: WTA, so > McCain
New Jersey 52: WTA, so all McCain’s
Romney has nowhere to go, but total humiliation.
Don’t forget Smithson’s Law re; age.
McCain needs someone who not just compliments his own appeal but who the widest possible range of Americans would have confidence in if the chief pops his clogs.
I can see the merits of condi in many ways.Gold plated conservative and would help neutralise the gender /race issue depending on who wins the democratic race. Howevr in other ways she doesn’t broaden things. her stae is safe republican, shes a national security/foriegn policy expert and so is mccain. In addition given his age/health the idea of her succeeding will be well aired. Is america ready for a Black/female POTUS? Also i notice she has never actually run for office.
Powell has similar limitations.
61 Same people really, though top CEOs the highest echelon obviously. But rich suburbanites who vote Republican are highly likely to work for the Man one way or another.
GOP VP SPECULATION
McCain’s credentials are defense, security, moderate, independent, western, older
Which would indicate that balancing VP would be more domestic, conservative,partisan younger, east of the Mississippi
But always option of going against conventional wisdom, as Clinton did in 1992 in chosing another young southerner, Al Gore.
Another gambit: choosing veep who has sufficient personal strength and clout to help carry a critical swing state.
Not to mention a selection designed to split off a segment of your opponent’s own base.
Wouldn’t count out Romney, though a more authentic conservative might indeed be more politique. But Romney also would have more incentive to get down with the old time religion of hard-core Republicanism. And he could fill the image of a technocratic manager at the president’s right hand.
Colin Powell has obvious appeal, though not especially to conservatives. Think Condi Rice is just too much of a lightweight to warrent consideration.
Lieberman would be an interesting choice, but NOT if you want to attract anti-war independents who might be willing to overlook McCain’s hawkishness but not if he rubs it in. As for Democrats, outside of Connecticutt his negatives outweigh his positives by a long shot. When Lieberman ran for president himself in 2004, even conservative Dems failed to show much enthusiasm. BUT he might help the ticket carry Connecticutt IF that state is truly in play, which I find hard to believe even if McCain goes on a rare tear.
Ok. looking at it from an electoral college point of view. Are VP’s who would swing/hold ohio,pennsylvania and florida for the REPs? As Mccain is a senator will he want a govenor/ou side the beltway choice? Is that huckabees USP? though i think I’d sht mself if he suceeded.
76 Agreed. Both have limitations. What i think is vital though is that the VP is seen to be someone who could be trusted in an emergency, not someone who might start WW3!
Ideally a respected figure with gravitas from the generation below big mac … I am not clued up enough to make any prediction about which individual he’ll go for, but the intention will be to reassure middle america that the veep is a safe pair of hands.
Huckabee is actually an interesting choice, because he ticks off many of the ideal characteristics for McCain’s ideal running mate AND he complements McC’s Happy Warrior persona.
UPCOMING GOP PRIMARIES
New York, New Jersey - McCain In like Flynn
Arizona - ditto
Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri - Huckabee’s last stand. And McCain hits GA coming (from SC) and going (from FL). Iowa result not encouraging for Romney’s prospects in Missouri; and hard to see metro Atlanta is going to go for a guy who shuns Coca Cola for religious reasons. Tennesse is an interesting case; keys to winning GOP primary are historically Republican East Tennessee, and the suburbs of Memphis (Shelby County). Right ads in these media markets and plenty of them could conceivably (but only just) do the trick for Mitt.
Illinois - Land of Lincoln is now as much a must win for Romney as it is for Obama. Because if he can’t beat McCain here, he can’t beat him nowhere. Media hugely expensive (like CA) due to Chicago which hurts McCain. Except that Prairie State is traditionally welcoming turf to GOP insurgents which McCain can claim to be for a least another week.
California - the Grand Prize of Super Tuesday and the biggest domino of all. One thing Romney showed today, was that his massive advantage in TV advertising in Florida did NOT signify. Which has to be very good news for McCain going into CA and its absolutely critical primary. Nevertheless Romney has no choice BUT to go for the gold in the Golden State
31. 34. 38. Who? Where? Pictures? Link? ??? ???
Can someone more knowledgeable than me take a look at the figures for delegates that Andrew Sullivan has up on his blog and comment on the validity of the predictions? Off to bed now anyway.
Oh, and McCain getting the nomination (and he will) increases the chance of an independent Ron Paul run, which is good for 1-2% nationwide IMO.
SSI. See where you’re coming from mate, but I suspect Huckabee will end up settling for some other position since i do not see him having any more traction in WTA contests. One of the joys of FPTP is that fragmented fields get whittled down far more quickly, making dreaded brokered conventions less likely.
OT it seems to me that the RNC has handled the dilemma of states breaking order by bringing their primaries forward far more maturely than Howard Dean’s shower. A 50 per cent fine deters without wholly disenfranchising.
Swing State Possibles
Florida - Gov Crist, Sen Martinez spring to mind; and the later would be a “two-fer”
Ohio - GOP establishment still in state of meltdown due to past iniquities; ex-Sen Voinovitch would give Obama run for his money in funny name stakes (plus firm up the Serbian vote) but he’s even older and more “moderate” than McCain.
Minnesota - Gov Pawlenty’ name has been bandied about, though think the whole Minneapolis bridge collapse tragedy might make him a wee bit controverial, which generally means getting scratched from the list; frankly think Sen Coleman would be a better bet.
Montana - only 3EV, hardly worth worrying about plus no obvious candidate who wouldn’t be considered underwelming from natinonal perspective
Wiscosin - bigger target, but basically same lack of obvious candidate with sufficent stature to pass national sniff test. (Richard Nixon overtested that particular envelope with Spiro Agnew.)
Oregon - Sen. Gordon Smith would seem the obvious choice, except that by chosing him GOP would be highly likely to lose his US Senate seat for which he’s currently running for reelection
New Mexico - similar problem to Oregon, in that most obvious candidate, US Rep (and former NSC staffer) Heather Wilson is already running to retain GOP Senate seat now held by retiriing Sen. Domineci
Arizona - base already covered if McC the man
83 - think you may have a point with RNC vs DNC, but still need to see how the delegate game plays out.
Is definitely less straighforward than Chinese checkers.
84 Senator Martinez was born in Cuba, and hence ineligible for VP.
80. Illinois also thinks far better of Mormons than a lot of states. Very good integration with the rest of the population in the North west suburbs.
Have just seen the TV coverage for the first time.
McCain class act.
Romney. looked beaten. I can see now why people are predicting an early withdrawal.
Guiliani ( described as former NY govenor by news 24) o clearly going to endorse Mccain and so quickly i just wonder what he has been promised.
Clinton. class act and very up front about getting florida delegates seated. I notice with 80% of precincts reporting that edwards is only at 14% and thus i asume gets no delegates if they are seated
31. 34. 38. If someone doesn’t show me the pictures right now this minute, I’ll come round and squirt custard into your ears and smear treacle into your hair and cut your toes off with a scythe
Close to final count and Clinton wins by 17 points. Not much considering how far she was ahead.
Ot slightly but i just thought about gordon brown running for US president. You could see Blair, cameron, clegg etc making it as a candidate and certainly sarko or merkel in a way. But Brown? I don’t know why it hit me for the first time the complete lack of charisma and warmth. Just as George Bush wouldn’t have made t passed junior fisheries minister in a parliamentry system Gordon might have been taury secretary in the US but nothing more.
90 I suspct you are onto something there. Mccain wins by 5 ponts and in WTA he crushes romney. Clinton wins by 17 points and wounds but does kill obama. what was interesting was a few hours ago BBC had clinton ahead of obama by 50 delegates. and how many deleagtes did edwards have? 50
New thread - Is McCain’s bid “like a woman having a baby in her late 50s?”
Tonight I believe makes it quite probable that McCain will win big enough on ST to make himself unstoppable.
Equally Hillary’s vote helps keep her in the game and experience counsels against writing off the Clinton’s. I predict the Dem race will remain competitive through to Texas & Ohio on March 4th.
What this gives McCain is time. He’s been on the road since June. Since his NH triumph his campaign has mushroomed, but attention will quickly switch to assembling a machine for November. Staff from rival primary campaigns are becoming available (eg Guilliani releasing his NY machine). I will be more interested in who will be Mac’s Karl Rove than his veep …
FOR THE RECORD - FL GOP PRIMARY
Southeast/Gold Coast
MIAMI/DADE (94% pcts) McC 49, R 15, G 26, H 6, P 2
BROWARD (94% pcts) McC 41, R 24, G 19, H 11, P 3
PALM BEACH (80% pcts) McC 40, R 30, G 17, H 9, P 3
Southwest Gulf Coast
SARASOTA (100% pcts) McC 38, R 32, G 16, H 9, P 3
COLLIER (Naples, 100%) McC 29, R 44, G 16, H 7, P 2
Central Gulf Coast
HILLSBOUGH (Tampa, 100%) McC 37, R 30, G 16, H 13, P 3
PINELLAS (St Pete, 100%) McC 38, R 30, G 16, H 11, P 4
Central Interior FL
ORANGE (Orlando, 100%) McC 32, R 32, G 14, H 17, P 3
SEMINOLE (O burbs, 100%) Mc 31, R 34, G 13, H 17, P 3
Central Atlantic Coast
BREVARD (Cape Canaveral, 99%) McC 36, R 31, G 13, H 13, P 4
VOLUSIA (Daytona Bch, 93%) McC 35, R 33, G 12, H 14, P 4
NE Florida
DUVAL (Jaxonville, 75%) McC 27, R 41, G 11, H 16, P 3
Western Panhandle
ESCAMBIA (Pensacola, 98%) McC 36, R 27, G 7, H 22, P 5
OKLOOSA (Ft Walton Bch, 92%) McC 39, R 22, G 7, H 19, P 5)
87: Isn’t Huckabee a major factor in Illinois too? It’s the same everywhere for Romney - aside from states with piddling numbers of delegates like Utah and Mass, where else can he actually start to catch McCain where Huckabee won’t interfere? California is really the only one, and even if we assume the stupidly unlikely and he somehow turns -10% into +15%, he only catches McCain by 25 odd delegates.
Meanwhile, McCain gets 250 odd to Romney’s zero in the winner-takes all Arizona/NJ/NY/Conn/Delaware, and latest polls show he likely gets all of Missouri’s 58 as well. That would be insurmountable even if Romney were tied nationally, rather than 7% behind - likely more with the Florida boost and Giuliani’s endorsement.
96. Can’t see him doing much in the Chicagoland area but I could see a lot of support for Huck in central and southern Illinois, which is mainly field after field of corn.
97: thanks, makes sense.
Finally found an up to date Illinois poll, 21-24 Jan:
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/research2000-illinois-survey-jan21to24-polls.pdf
McCain 31
Romney 20
Giuliani 13
Huck 11
Paul 7
Undecided 18
In a poll early Dec Giuliani/Huck were 23/21, but both have collapsed since along with their national campaigns.