Is McCain’s bid “like a woman having a baby in her late 50s?”
January 30th, 2008
Newsweek raises the age question
After his sensational victory in the Florida GOP primary overnight John McCain has become an even more firm odds-on favourite to take the nomination. By 0430 GMT the Betfair price in response to the result had tightened to 0.15/1 which given the fact the the market won’t be settled until September looks crazy.
You only bet at such odds-on prices when the market will be resolved in a few days - to lock up your stake for more than seven months for such a small return doesn’t make sense.
For anything can happen in the meantime especially as the one negative feature about the Arizona senator has yet to been become a campaign issue - that he’ll be 72 years old by the time of the election.
The Newsweek article, reproduced above, by Anna Quindlen puts it like this: “..Political operatives say that his age makes McCain’s choice of a running mate particularly critical. But if you enter the process stressing a hedge against mortality or incapacity, shouldn’t that suggest something about suitability for the job in the first place? The senator’s pursuit of the presidency reminds me a bit of those women who decide to have a baby in their late 50s. The impulse is understandable, the goal possible. But, looking at all the facts, and the actuarial tables, is it really sensible?”
Romney and his millions are still there and will be throwing a massive amount of money at the Super Tuesday primaries next week. No doubt, his team are looking at ways of touching on McCain’s age in a way that won’t re-bound. Difficult - but that’s what you hire expensive PR people for.
Just look a the way the Clinton gang in their unlovely way switched the focus onto Obama’s skin colour. Think what they could do with McCain’s 72 years?
Mike Smithson
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I think if age was that much of facor then he wouldn’t have got tis far. Regea was older wasn’t he? The real signifiance of the story though is perhaps that its a straw i the wind. I mccain is now the front runner then does he start taking flak from the pres to kep the drama alive rather tha just a coronation?
FOR THE RECORD - FL GOP PRIMARY
Southeast/Gold Coast
MIAMI/DADE (94% pcts) McC 49, R 15, G 26, H 6, P 2
BROWARD (94% pcts) McC 41, R 24, G 19, H 11, P 3
PALM BEACH (80% pcts) McC 40, R 30, G 17, H 9, P 3
Southwest Gulf Coast
SARASOTA (100% pcts) McC 38, R 32, G 16, H 9, P 3
COLLIER (Naples, 100%) McC 29, R 44, G 16, H 7, P 2
Central Gulf Coast
HILLSBOUGH (Tampa, 100%) McC 37, R 30, G 16, H 13, P 3
PINELLAS (St Pete, 100%) McC 38, R 30, G 16, H 11, P 4
Central Interior FL
ORANGE (Orlando, 100%) McC 32, R 32, G 14, H 17, P 3
SEMINOLE (O burbs, 100%) Mc 31, R 34, G 13, H 17, P 3
Central Atlantic Coast
BREVARD (Cape Canaveral, 99%) McC 36, R 31, G 13, H 13, P 4
VOLUSIA (Daytona Bch, 93%) McC 35, R 33, G 12, H 14, P 4
NE Florida
DUVAL (Jaxonville, 75%) McC 27, R 41, G 11, H 16, P 3
Western Panhandle
ESCAMBIA (Pensacola, 98%) McC 36, R 27, G 7, H 22, P 5
OKLOOSA (Ft Walton Bch, 92%) McC 39, R 22, G 7, H 19, P 5)
Didn’t work on Reagan.
People genuinely are living actively much longer nowadays. I figure it’s possible us political folks might be taking the cult of youth thing too far.
As I was saying on previousthread it makes the VP all the more important, not least because of the possibility of Mac not seeking a 2nd term.
McCain’s lively mother helps him out in this regard. He still has a lot of energy about him, which will fend off these concerns dramatically. Watching a video of him, he just doesn’t seem old in his manner like Fred Thompson does.
Indeed. s’t ken Clarke older than Ming? I know ashdown is 2 years older than Ming and he doesn’t look it nd neiher does McCain
I’ve added a final line - Just look a the way the Clinton gang in their unlovely way switched the focus onto Obama’s skin colour. Think what they could do with McCain’s 72 years?
In response to some great points raised at end of previous thred:
88 As somone who’s been ragging on Giuliani (with good reason) must say his performance FL Primary Night was a class act, even said nice things about Ron Paul. As for timing, he had no choice; couldn’t risk humiliation of losing NY State plus his key supporters either side of Hudson River were voting with their feet already and threatening to run Rudy down in haste to head for McC.
Clinton is on message perforrming as advocate for Floridians who voted today, esp for her (or is it him?; am still confused!) As for Edwards, he’ll get some delegates on congressional district basis in CDs where he cracked 15%, for example in Panhandle.
94 McCain indeed can use some downtime, both personally (sure has earned it) and campaignwise, to reorient, retool, readjust.
Clinton’s Florida victory is less than spectacular (as Socrates indicates) and tainted (by his SC shenanigans) and thus less of a triumph for Hillary (or Billary) than a cautionary tale for Obama
96 Is Huckabee a major factor in Illinois? Answer is no. Biggest geographic bloc in GOP primary is the semi-circle of suburban “collar counties” around Chicago; definitely not natural turf for Huckabee. Downstate is better for him but not spectacular; even in areas similar to Iowa the potential evangelical voting strength much less for primary than for a caucus.
Thus California is NOT the only place where Romney could conceiveably catch McCain, because Illinois is all in that (theoretical) category.
Think your correct about NY, NJ, CN, DE, AZ being all McCain. Of course have to give throw Romney a bone in Mass though wouldn’t consider even that a slam dunk for him.
7. that is thought provoking but is age really the same powder keg as race?
5-6 You are 100% correct on this point, McC appears considerably younger than for example Ronald Reagan, who seemed as lively as you really want in a president (leastways one over 60) to be, until the tail end of his 2nd term.
Perhaps McC could talk Mama into relocating away from Arizona, so she’d be eligible to run for Vice President.
Then HE could be the youth wing of the McCain-McCain ticket.
9 Not a powderkeg but a slow fuse.
It is too late for a nasty whispering campaign to derail McCain over his age. His speech was so much better than anyone else’s tonight that anyone watching who was undecided would have gone for him. Guiliani’s endorsement ends the race IMHO.
4 - Good point. Can’t you just see McC telling either Hillary or Obama, ” I refuse to take advantage of your youth and immaturity.” a la Reagan to Mondale in 1984?
Was great line them, and would still be great this year. Except that it’s so obvious someone will come up with the perfect retort.
Just like the Clinton’s the Mitt machine will no doubt be delighted to read commentators like you raisng the issue for them and saving their manicured nails …
The trouble with talking this up as an issue really is that Big Mc goes and joins George Bush Snr on a skydive or runs the Boston marathon or something which would be corny were it not for the sniping at him, but which ultimately reminds everyone that he is not cast from the same mould as most men … focusing on Mac’s age moreover also inevitably involves discussion of his back story too - when you’re a genuine hero that counts some in the balance!
12 - Assume you mean GOP race and not the whole hog.
Either way, don’t think Giuliani’s endorsement is that big a deal, even in the NYC orbit.
Why? Because
–his stupid stragegy of funking early and often, then putting all his addled eggs into one too-big basket has erroded his “vote” to the vanishing point.
–even before it was clear he was bailing, his NY/NJ support base was already fleeing the sinking ship
But the one thing that Rudy’s endorsement will do for McCain is underline the momentum, and marginally amplify the bounce that Mc will get from winning Florida.
One reason why age is likely to be less of an issue than it would have been in previous presidential elections, is because the Baby Boomer generation is clearly bound and determined to push the enevelope to the max when it comes to aging. We will NOT go gentle into that good night, or anywhere else. Which means that a vigourous geezer like JMcC is going with the flow.
4 - re possibility of a President McCain not seeking 2nd term.
Worst thing in the world a new President entering office could possibly do, is give the impression he’s a lame duck. Because while any president will (or should) have a good head of steam going into the White House, by year two he or she’d likekly be in a world of hurt unless enough folks thought there was a chance they might be around for more than just one term.
12 - I of course only mean GOP race. Plenty of time for it to become an issue before the GE. I still have the Dems heavy favourites. McCain had the momentum anyway, Giuliani’s backing him at a emotive GOP place like outside Reagan’s library just adds an extra engine. It will be enough for the race to be over on Feb 5.
17 Not suggesting he does or will, but just because he’s a herop doesn’t make him immortal …
Morning, peeps. Missed all the fun. Work.
So, looks like McCain for the nomination? Well all those good Democrat voters better think long and hard about their choice because he is serious opposition. They get it wrong, they could lose in November - again.
Morning peeps. Missed all the fun. Sleep
This one was telegraphed by the polls - but given some of the shocking polling before I can see why people waited for the votes to come in. In fact it seems that the polling on the GOP side has been consistently more accurate than that on the Democrat side - could anyone suggest why this might be?
There’s a danger of getting caught in McCainmania as we were with Obamamania after Iowa - but it does seem that McCain’s path is now clear to the nomination. And the Democrats seem convinced about selecting the one candidate who could lose to McCain, which will shape up for a close contest come November. I personally don’t think age will be an issue; I’d agree with DaveH at 4, politically age is a perception rather than a number.
19 Point well taken
20 Roger that, PtP
21 Reported Pat Buchanan, a topflight political brain whatever you think of his politics, is saying that the thing that beat Romney, was when he allowed himself to be caught like a deer in the headlights by McCain’s attack that he lacked sufficient ardor with respect to Iraq.
Back in 2000 McCain allowed the Bushies to sucker punch him in South Carolina.
What Buchanan is saying, is this year JMCC learned his lesson, and proved it by coldcockking Mitt.
21 Yes, Tpfkar.
And on that age issue, the point is that McCain neither looks nor acts especially old. He’s a very young 72. It won’t be a problem. It would be a mistake for his opponents to target it.
I don’t want to rain on McCain’s parade but the margin was quite narrow (I know all the arguements about momentum. Can some one like Sea Shanty Irish tell me their best guess for ST (or SDT) in terms of gross total of delegates after the poll.
Can Romney win enough from the states other than NY and California which both seem set for McCain?
Personally politically there seems b****r all between Hillary and McCain, except that I’d rather have a drink in the pub with McCain
23 Problem not exactly the right word, but voters have a legimate right to be concerned with implications of electing the oldest president in US history. Just as they have a right to concern over implications of electing a Black man, a woman or a Mormon. Or a trial lawyer or televangelist turned governor for that matter.
And health is always going to be a relevant issue for anyone running for president. Paul Tsongas proved that conclusively in 1988.
25 Sure they do, SSI. I was just expressing my view that chronological age is not the big issue. It’s how old he acts and feels, and of course the state of his health. I’d have thought he had little to worry about in these respects and I doubt they will be of much concern for the voters.
The voters are of course perfectly entitled to take them into account though, as you say.
25 Sure they do, SSI. I was just expressing my view that chronological age is not the big issue. It’s how old he acts and feels, and of course the state of his health. I’d have thought he had little to worry about in these respects and I doubt they will be of much concern for the voters.
The voters are of course perfectly entitled to take them into account though, as you say.
Total votes reported so far in 2008 Florida Primary, with 99.8% of precincts reporting, and with unknown number of absentees still remaining to count
Democratic votes for President = 1.7m of 4.1m registered Democrats (42% of Dem reg)
Republican votes for President = 1.9m of 3.8m registered Republicans (50% of Rep reg)
The most striking fact about the above numbers is that Republican turnout was higher than Democratic turnout. Which is in contrast to every other previous primary or caucus state.
Why the difference?
Clearly the whole DNC dispute seriously depressed Democratic turnout in Florida. In effect, the Dems suppressed their own vote - part & parcel of the Cosmic Joke.
And as per ususal with vote suppression, the votes most likely to get suppressed are those of minority, younger, lower income, less educated and more marginalized voters.
In other words, the 2008 version of the Butterfly Ballot.
All in all, a pretty strong argument, on solid democratic grounds (both small and large “d”) for the DNC and the Dem National Convention to NOT accept the FL Democratic Primary results at face value.
Total votes reported so far in 2008 Florida Primary, with 99.8% of precincts reporting, and with unknown number of absentees still remaining to count
Democratic votes for President = 1.7m of 4.1m registered Democrats (42% of Dem reg)
Republican votes for President = 1.9m of 3.8m registered Republicans (50% of Rep reg)
The most striking fact about the above numbers is that Republican turnout was higher than Democratic turnout. Which is in contrast to every other previous primary or caucus state.
Why the difference?
Clearly the whole DNC dispute seriously depressed Democratic turnout in Florida. In effect, the Dems suppressed their own vote - part & parcel of the Cosmic Joke.
And as per ususal with vote suppression, the votes most likely to get suppressed are those of minority, younger, lower income, less educated and more marginalized voters.
In other words, the 2008 version of the Butterfly Ballot.
All in all, a pretty strong argument, on solid democratic grounds (both small and large “d”) for the DNC and the Dem National Convention to NOT accept the FL Democratic Primary results at face value.
25 Sure they do, SSI. I was just expressing my view that chronological age is not the big issue. It’s how old he acts and feels, and of course the state of his health. I’d have thought he had little to worry about in these respects and I doubt they will be of much concern for the voters.
The voters are of course perfectly entitled to take them into account though, as you say.
24 It was a relatively strong performance though, John. McCain could have afforded to lose this one as long as he finished a strong second. Taking it was an above standard performance.
Romney was running second in the overall contest. He needed to make up ground. He lost it instead. He couldn’t afford to do that at this stage.
I reckon it eight to one on McCain now.
I actually think that the fact that McCain is looking the increasingly likely GOP nominee actually makes it more sensible to go for Hillary. Because McCain is a more serious prospect would you rather have a candidate who could have things to come out? Remarkably little is actually known about Obama, he is much more likely to misstep and be punished than Clinton. I cannot see that there is much negative stuff about Clinton that isn’t already out there.
24 Don’t have delegate counts, but can safely say that if California is truly in the bag for McCain, then Romney is a dead man walking.
Cause there’s virtually no way Mitt can get nominated without winning California, unless of course JMcC spots him some delegates out of the goodness of his heart.
Sporting but unlikely.
Plus the FL GOP primary is not narrow at all: +5% over Romney, which I personally think is impressive in such a crowded field.
And a close look at the records of Senators McCain and Clinton demonstrates that there are very considerable differences between their positions on a wide range of subjects. Most important: the best choice for next Justice(s) of the US Supreme Court.
Which if you ask me is ample reason enough to vote for ANY Clinton over McCain or any Republican for that matter.
31 - I came into tonight thinking that Romney could survive a strong 2nd place because of his moneybags. Yet he finished a solid but hardly impressive 2nd despite pouring a king’s ransom into FL TV.
Not a confidence builder.
Now Romney’s back is truly to the wall. He must win CA and IL or he’s done. Still possible, but FL shows its going to be an uphill battle even with a funding advantage, unless of course Mitt can pull another Michigan - preferably two - out of his hat.
Now IL is similar to Mich, but CA is much more like FL.
33 Forgot to say you are almost certainly right about the barroom companion. Yet McCain himself testifies that Hillary’s not all doom and gloom, esp when you get a few shots in her, as he managed to do on a joint Senatorial trip to (I think) Estonia.
32 Know a lot of smart Democrats who agree with you. Plus plenty (including myself) who don’t.
My view is, running against the Clintons is like learning tapdancing in a buzz-saw factory. It makes you stronger IF you survive.
35 - Well we may well know this time next week. I am not yet ordering the funeral flowers although I have a strong suspicion that it may be decided one way or the other next week.
36 You could well be right. Actually in 35 above, was NOT associating myself with the smart Dems, cause the ones who see it your way are indeed savvier & more experienced than moi!
BUT still think there is gas left in Obama’s tank.
BTW the Florida state constitutional amendment, which was also on the primary ballot for both parties, plus for non-party voters, is passing by nearly 2/1. Aided without doubt by the depressed Democratic turnout, though the margin indicates it would have passed even if proportionate numbers of Dems had turned out.
38 - forgot to say, amendment was to limit property tax assessments.
BTW the only people talking today about W’s SOTU are the comics.
David Letterman: “The President was upbeat about Iraq and the economy. So clearly he’s drinking again.”
Then Letterman discussed news reports of a comet or asteroid or something, a massive object hurtling toward earth, where it would inevitably explode against the earth in an unbelievable cataclysm.
“Oh, wait - that wasn’t an asteroid - that was the Giuliani campaign.”
“W’s SOTU” is taking short hand too far, it’s getting like rhyming slang - apples = apples & pears = stairs.
George W Bush’s State of the Union took me a little to work out. It’s early here
“Romney and his millions are still there”
Really? Mike if you hadn’t told me I would never have none - I assumed he’d blown it on whores and crack!
Pretty shameful tactics from the Clintons and I think they have suffered a bit for that. Playing the age card would have a similarly detrimental impact on their credibility so I suspect they will steer well clear.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
FOR THE RECORD - FL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Southeast/Gold Coast
MIAMI/DADE (100% pcts) C 52 O 40 E 7
BROWARD (99% pcts) C 57 O 33 E 9
PALM BEACH (100% pcts) C 60 O 28 E 10
Southwest Gulf Coast
SARASOTA (100% pcts) C 53 O 31 E 14
COLLIER (Naples, 100%) C 54 O 28 E 14
Central Gulf Coast
HILLSBOUGH (Tampa, 100%) C 45 O 38 E 14
PINELLAS (St Pete, 100%) C 52 O 33 E 12
Central Interior FL
ORANGE (Orlando, 100%) C 48 O 39 E 11
SEMINOLE (O burbs, 100%) C 49 O 35 E 14
Central Atlantic Coast
BREVARD (Cape Canaveral, 99%) C 51 O 29 E 17
VOLUSIA (Daytona Bch, 100%) C 53 O 27 E 18
NE Florida
DUVAL (Jaxonville, 100%) C 31 O 49 E 15
ALACHUA (Gainsville, UofF, 100%) C 36 O 46 E 16
Eastern Panhandle
LEON (Tallahassee, FL State U, 100%) C 33 O 47 E 17
Western Panhandle
ESCAMBIA (Pensacola, 100%) C 32 O 42 E 22
OKLOOSA (Ft Walton Bch, 100%) C 37 O 35 E 23
Thing that impresses me is not Clinton’s strength in South Florida. Though this is impressive even considering the pro-Clinton skew due to DNC controversy suppressing Dem votes.
The impressive thing is Obama’s strength in North Florida, despite the depressed Democratic vote. Which confirms that SC was a leading indicatator heralding the solification of African American voters behind Obama, joined by a significant minority of White Democrats. This is precisely the kind of trend that could yield big dividends for Obama in the Dixie portion of Super Tuesday. Particularly if Obama can boost the turnout of Blacks, young people and other in his natural base.
Ditto for Edwards. Think he did well in North Florida considering the considerable disadvantages (esp. financial) he’s laboring under. Basically he’s living on the land, but making a pretty reasonable living under the circumstances. For example, based on numbers above looks like he made the 15% threshold in half a dozen congressional districts give or take, thus qualifying for at least that many (theoretical) delegates.
It strikes me that McCain would be fighting the 2004 campaign, playing the Iraq, terror, and now Iran cards (just to update it).
I disagree that McCain would present a strong challenge. Age, baggage, GOP, Iraq, Bush legacy, fighting a strong Democrat party with a strong leader. Too many negatives on the GOP side, and too many positives on the Democrats will make it a one sided affair.
I think the Democrats will be pleased that Guliani is out of the way especially if in the run up to a campaign Bin Laden raised his head, or there was a terrorist attack. You cannot plan for these uncertainties, and Rudy would have surely benefited.
The battle between Hillary and Obama will decide the presidency. The Democrats had at least 2 other candidates who could have won- Gore and Edwards.
I agree with the comments so far that age isn’t that big an issue with McCain, certainly as far as the nomination goes. Whether it will become an issue for the general election - assuming he is nominated, which is not yet a foregone conclusion, though is heading that way - will depend to no small degree on how he holds up during two very intense months prior to November. Campaigning at that level is hard work. If he can do that without looking whacked by each evening, he’ll be OK; if not, he’ll be struggling.
Overall, I’ve now laid part of my bet on McCain off, partly to get me a nice big all-green seven months before the convention, but also because I’m not yet convinced that he will in fact be the candidate and the odds look attractive. With so many winner-take-all states in the GOP race, the delegate count can shift rapidly if Romney can make inroads in the right places. It’s worth noting that so far he’s always done well where he’s needed to - perhaps until Florida anyway. Romney wasn’t afraid to make big calls about funding advertising earlier in the campaign, in the run-up to Michigan for example, and I think he’s still very much in the game - but he has to get it right in a week’s time.
Just for the record Ronald Reagan was 69 when he took office, McCain will be 72 if he wins, which will be a new record.
44-sea shanty- the Edwards of 2008 is a much better all rounder than the 2004 which Kerry deservedly won. Experience counts.
Edwards needs to get himself a high profile job in the the next Democrat administration, and lay the ground work for the long term, maybe challenging in 3, 4, 5 campaigns time.
47. Although Reagan would still be the oldest person to win a US presidential election, as he was 73 when re-elected in 1984.
This isn’t something I could say if I were an American politician, but it seems to me that the age issue is not so much that McCain’s age implies that he’s feeble, since he clearly is not, but that it increases the risk that he would die in office. That will focus much greater attention than usual on his VP choice, and if he chooses, say, Huckabee for balance, people are going to work out for themselves (with a bit of Democrat nudging that would no doubt be less explicit than this) that it’s not very unlikely that they’ll vote McCain and get Huck. That will blunt the ticket’s appeal to independents.
BEST FLORIDA COUNTIES
Democrats
CLINTON
Osceola (suburban central interior) 61%
Hernando (rural central Gulf Coast) 60.5%
Palm Beach (slightly more upscale SE Gold Coast) 60%
Charlotte (exurban south Gulf Coast) 60%
OBAMA
Gadsden (rural eastern panhandle) 55%
Duval (NE Fla port, suburbs) 49.5%
Leon (eastern panhandle, state capital & univ) 47%
EDWARDS
Lafayette (rural eastern panhandle) 49.9%
Holmes (rural western panhandle) 49%
Republicans
McCAIN
Miami/Dade (SE Fla metropolis, 9% all FL GOP) 49%
Broward (slightly more downscale Gold Coast) 41.5%
ROMNEY
Collier (SW Gulf Coast upscale) 44%
Duval (NE FL port & suburbs) 41.5%
GIULIANI
Miami/Dade 26%
St Lucie (central FL Atlantic Coast) 20%
Broward 19%
HUCKABEE
Holmes (rural western panhandle) 35%
Madison (rural eastern panhandle) 35%
PAUL
Alachua (north FL interior, U of Fla) 6%
Walton (resort/rural western panhandle) 5%
Okloosa (resort/rural western panhandle) 5%
Have the odds on the Republicans winning the presidency tightened with McCain now the clear leader ?
50 Exactly
52 No, Harry, they’re stable at around 2.74.
50 - I agree with you Nick, the age thing is a very subtle one and if he screws up his veep choice then it becomes live. It is also an issue that can be played much more subtly than race, and would probably be more devastating because people will already be wondering about it, it plays on their fears. I’d have zero compunction about using age as a defining factor!
Mike - the exit polls showed “seniors” being one of the big demographics for McCain - ideal because they tend to vote in large numbers. Romney poured gazillions into Fla and was beaten comfortably. All the talk on the TV last night was of Guilliani coming out for him later today. McCain’s mum is spritely at 92 and McCain has a good plastic surgeon. Game over.
Value is now on backing the GOP to win in December as the polls have McCain beating both Barack and Hillary. That makes sense - Barack is just too green (boom boom) and people don’t like Hillary.
49 - I think alot of people make a distinction between running for the first time and running for reelection. Given that almost all Presidents at least run for reelection, McCain would be 76, and 80 by the end of his second term.
Although age hasn’t played a part yet, it certainly will. The trouble is McCain is 72 and looks it. Romney and Clinton are both 60 but look younger. The contrast is even greater with Obama, who is 46.
There may be some value in the Republican price but Democrats are deserved favourites:
1. Democrat turnout in primaries is way up on 2004 whereas the Republican turnout is weak (they obviously didn’t have a Primary campaign in 2004 so no direct comparison).
2. “Head to head” polls mean 3% of bugger all at this stage in any Presidential election.
3. McCain has yet to come under pressure for his age. When the campaign proper starts, one stumble will be seen as a sign of impending physical collapse and one poor speech will be seen as the first sign of Alzheimers. It won’t be put like that and it’s sad but true.
4. Democrats will match and may beat Republicans for funding.
5. There is a “feeling” after eight years that the time is for a change in the general scheme of things (happens to both parties). The Republican candidate will distance himself from Bush but that may not be enough.
56 - I disagree we need to see who the nominees are first, there is an outside chance that Romney can still clinch it and whilst I agree that Barack is more easily beatable by McCain he is much more likely to through inexperience make a misstep. I think that saying Hillary would lose simply because she isn’t widely liked is naive really. Few people liked Thatcher but she consistently won, few people at the last election liked Tony Blair but he won. Hillary has a better chance I would argue because she is disliked and therefore there is a higher chance that the GOP would underestimate her, also she is a streetfighter and would fight McCain every single step of the way.
Saw Romney’s speech on Politico. To all intents and purposes it sounded like a concession speech, thanking his staff from taking ‘me from nowhere to the first tier’. Expect the 11th commandment to come into force in tonight’s debate. Heck, I can even see Romney pulling out and/or pulling his campaign ads so as to prevent Huckabee from playing a kingmaker role.
51 Clinton’s best counties were mid-to-upscale retirement communities, with plenty of older women, also transplanted New Yorkers on Atlantic coast; plenty of similar turf in Cali and other SuperT states.
Obama’s best counties were in “southern” North Florida, in mix of college towns, old ports and rural backwaters, a mix found in varying combinations across Dixie.
Edward’s best counties were in rural North Florida hard by Georgia & Alabama, which are both on the Super Tuesday schedule along with other Dixie states.
McCain’s best counties were vote-rich Miami/Dade and Broward; JMcC obviously adheres to the Willy Sutton School of Political Science: go to where the votes are.
Romney’s best counties were divided between a SW Gulf Coast sancturay for the old and rich, and a gritty NE Atlantic port on the other side of the state; plenty of similar turf both ways in California
Giuliani’s best counties were SE FL Gold Coast. He did best (but not nearly good enough) in exHavana/exNYC Miami/Dade
Huckabee’s best counties were rural North Florida “southern” backwaters, and he also ran above average in the more populus North FL counties, again very similar to turf in nearby Bible Belt states.
Paul’s best counties were college towns and western panhandle hard core conservative centers, places likewise highpoints for John Birch Society and Barry Goldwater.
58 - And you didn’t even mention the economy. Which is a problem for the GOP now that it turns out that Guns AND Butter isn’t a sustainable economic program.
57 McCain’s age will be really only be a major issue if he makes errors or comments in speeches which look confused, vague or rambling. As campaign hots up and tiredness plays a part this could happen. If he still manages to look at ease and quips with the media the charge is hard to prove.
58 - McCain does represent change - he has been a trenchant critic of Rumsfeld for example, opposed Bush’s fiscal profligacy, defended the independence of the Supreme Court and has done much else to annoy the GOP base. Despite that he won a closed primary in Florida. With Rudy out of the way he has a clear run.
Most of all, though, he is principled. He staked his entire campaign on the surge in Iraq and has been proved right. I might be biased because I agree with him 100% on Iraq but my god what a principled stand. Plus the fact that he was shafted by Bush in 2000 but still remained loyal. Add to that his heroic war record and that is some back story. Compare that with Romney who was for abortion but is now against as the most high profile flip-flop. Hillary was for the war and then against.
59 - Thatcher was disliked but Foot and Kinnock were appalling. Blair was disliked but who would ever vote for Mr Something of the Night? Hillary will mobilise the GOP base - people hate her like lefties hate Thatcher.
So with the principled, admirable McCain (with Joe Lieberman as running mate?) vs Mrs Slick Willy or the callow Obama the odds are definitely better than the 66/33 that Betfair has
It’s very difficult for a non American to know what personal factors will affect voting. All my intincts told me no rational person would vote Bush against Gore. Then after seeing him perform for four years voting for him a second time seemed unimaginable.
But knowing that on his way to winning this second term he had beaten McCain would I have thought made McCain a no hoper. Less desirable than Bush after seeing him in action for four years? Or has he upped his game since he was 68?
O/T Mervyn King gets 5 more years as Governor of the BoE (just announced by Treasury)
64 - McCain alienates a sizeable portion of the GOP base though so it isn’t anywhere near as clear cut as you assert.
63. “57 McCain’s age will be really only be a major issue if he makes errors or comments in speeches which look confused, vague or rambling”
That rather reinforces the point I was making about about non Americans being poor judges. For eight years that’s exactly what they’ve got from Bush and they voted him in twice.
The odds for a democrat win in November are 4/7 and for a republican win are 7/4.
Bearing in mind that there is less ‘tribal’ party loyalty in the US, there is more voting ‘on merit’ (Where would that leave our leaders?).
The negatives about Obama and Hillary, which I have learnt from you expert posters, make 7/4 look attractive odds in a 2 runner race? Particularly if one runner’s biggest perceived weakness is his age….
Is there a convincing poll lead for the democrats to make 4/7 the right price?
69 Take a look at this:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
These polls need updating after Fla but they have McCain vs Clinton/Obama neck and neck on 20-22 Jan but either Dem beating Romney hands down
Get on!
I reckon people are in denial over whether his age will come in to it. The fact we are discussing it here shows it is an issue. I like McCain, I think he is the best of the GoP candidates, however, age is a vulnerability and people can exploit it if they want to.
Also unlike race, which doesn’t or more accurately shouldn’t affect your ability to be president, age can affect people. Therefore if it is used to attack the Big Mac it might end up sticking.
65- Roger- Dubya is a remarkable politician, Rove saw his potential, he exudes likability, charm, positivity sexiness, humour and good fun. The man to have a beer with, the kinda guy you want to be around. I will miss him (sort of) when he goes- he is so entertaining to watch.
A complete disaster policywise for the US and the world, but fun all the same.
67 - Yes the base don’t like McCain but they loathe Hillary with a passion. I don’t know why, I quite like her, but I have spoken to a couple of Republicans and I really feel they would do anything to stop her.
69 - Dems line of attack on McCain, too Republican to be a moderate, too moderate to be a Republican. At least you know what your getting with us! His age is far from his biggest weakness.
[70] My unskilled interpretation of the polls suggested that 7/4 on the outsider is value. Thanks for confirming it.
71 - but he doesn’t look old - his last two acceptance speeches have been great and he looks fresh despite the tough race. Bob Dole looked old, so did Walter Mondale but my gut feeling is that McCain is tougher.
73 - The same attitude didn’t stop her husband!
76 - He looks older than Reagan ever did.
69. Yes, 7/4 is attractive considering that one big event could change the course of the campaign. McCain’s military record and tough talk on terrorism could be a factor.
68 Bush is a lot more canny than non-Americans give him credit for. If you have a chance (might be on you tube) watch his first inaugaration - the sly smile as he sees his political enemies like Bill Clinton taking their places to see him become President and the obvious self-satisfaction is revealing of the political operator he is.
Problem IMHO is that the British find the cadences and language he uses foreign and associate it with “dumb”.
Bush’s weakness in my view has been his inability to respond well to a crisis - 9/11 when first informed he carried on reading to the kids then spent the first day in hiding, Katrina, he again took days to recognise the severity.
Just checked and Skybet still haven’t paid out on McCain in Florida. Don’t they listen to the news?
77/78 - But she’s not her husband. He has charm, to which she added steel in the campaign. This time around he’s adding nastiness to her steel - not the same thing.
Reagan may have looked younger but then he wasn’t being tortured by the VietCong for four years. That’s liable to make you go a bit grey. For me, his age reminds me of his heroism.
Just gut feeling James, but I see you disagree. I’ll be backing the GOP now with a view to laying off when the value has gone. I reckon the vote will be very tight in December and there will be a lot of fluctuations. All good news for traders on Betfair.
80 - People voted Bush in 2000/2004 because they liked him - I feel they’ll want substance this time around
65- Roger “But knowing that on his way to winning this second term he had beaten McCain would I have thought made McCain a no hoper. Less desirable than Bush after seeing him in action for four years? Or has he upped his game since he was 68? ”
Bush defeated McCain in the 2000 primary, not in 2004 (he was unopposed in 2004). He defeated as the candidate of “compassionate conservatism”, not as the post 9/11 president. And he overcame McCain only using very dirty tricks in Sth Carolina.
So I cannot really see your point regarding McCain as a “no-hoper”…
Some details from the Florida exit polls.
McCain scored on character and electability.
Romney scored on values.
Ok, the answer to this is simple.
There is an increasing proportion of older people in populations of western countries such as the USA…they are often more reliable voters…they hold more wealth and power..you want to around suggesting they cant vote for an old fogey just because he’s old?
Vision is ageless. Match that with substance and then you have something that people won’t ignore.
Just because the LD’s dumped an underperforming party leader using the excuse, and excuse it was, that he was old doesn’t mean the USA will do so. This is the country that has no problems putting in really old guys into Congress.
Ignoring Obama and looking at the current Dem favourite and thus most likely pwerson to get the nomination, Clinton, if she gets the nomination and McCain gets the GOP is there anyone who thinks Hillary will run away with it at this time?
Not many, which says it all. At this moment and time it has not become a substantive issue, it may never do so, and I suspect yet again we are looking at the situation there through our eyes which, in reality, counts for nothing.
And finally, McCain won’t act like Bambi and go whinging in the face of Clinton attacks on his age.
72. Quite so, Tyson. Lefties were blinded by their hatred of Bush into thinking he couldn’t win once (they were so blinded they were convinced it was a voter fraud conspiracy); when he won twice they had paroxysms of rage and disbelief.
I was less surprised. Indeed, at the risk of sounding smug, I had a non financial bet on Bush. I was in Vegas during the 2004 election - with my brother, a serious leftie.
I told him Bush was gonna win but he just couldn’t see it. So we had our wager.
To me it was obvious Bush was gonna win - he had all the folksy charm you mention, PLUS, and crucially, the Democrats were coming across as sneering and patronising coastal liberals, laughing at the stupid flyover people. The Red Staters. The bigots in the boondocks.
The lefty attitude was: you people are so stupid you voted for Bush once, surely you won’t do it again.
So dubya won. Course he was a disaster, but at least he was a likeable disaster.
Hillary’s campaign has a tinge of the same haut en bas attitude that did for the dems last time: how dare you vote for anyone else, you stupid little people.
I imagine she is aware of the dangers of revealing this - but the underlying attitude nonetheless shows itself from time to time. The sense of outraged entitlement. Bill gave a glimpse - and it backfired badly.
Still think she is gonna win though, sadly.
The polls are saying that if it is Clinton vs McCain then McCain is the likely winner, if it is Obama versus McCain, then Obama is the likely winner.
Much of the motivation on the Democratic side has been for Obama, if the nomination goes to the “unlovely” Clinton(s), the dynamic of the race really does change. The Clintons *are* polarising, because their brand of cynicism is so reprehensible. In the end, he was impeached…
76. He doesn’t look old all the time, but it won’t take much to get a pic of him looking haggard and knackered and have that go around. Also one off key performance - like that of Charles Kennedy in 2005 election talking about Lib Dem Council Tax proposals will hurt harder than others. He has to be on his game throughout the campaign
87. Bambi, eh?
Hm.
Do you think McCain might burst into floods of self-pitying tears, in a cakeshop, if someone asks him:
“How do you stay so upbeat and wonderful?”
I saw a documentary recently which followed Bush around his re-election campaigns - lots of shots of him chatting to journalists on long boring trips over the “Flyover States”. And the thing which amazed and surprised me was how charming he was. He had an easy, natural way with people quite at odds to his stiff, wooden persona when talking formally to a camera. It was only after I had seen that programme that I realised why Bush had won.
89 - Yes the dynamic changes but I wouldn’t be certain it changes against the Clintons, especially if she chooses a good VP.
92 - yes, CNN showed him glad-handing after this week’s State of the Union and my goodness what a charmer. Although the guy is in the top five of worst US presidents ever I felt myself warming to him. For example, he asked one congressman how his daughter was doing at college. That kind of skill is political gold.
According to reports, Hillary has been explaining Bill’s aggressive performance before South Carolina. Hillary said:
“He does this because he loves me so much”.
Right, Hillary. “He does this because he loves me so much”. Hm. I see. Yes. Uh-huh.
So is that why he whacked off over the intern, in the Oval Office? Cause He Loves You So Much?
What about the cigar? Maybe he was gonna give it you as a present. Cause He Loves You So Much. But then he forgot and stuck it in Monica instead.
Strained, painful, and mildly disturbing?
94 Surely one of the top two worst POTUSes?
Well it is between G.W.Bush and Warren G. Harding (”I was not fit for this office and never should have been here”)
97 - Oh come, he is the best president of the 21st Century
I am backing McCain quite heavily at the moment. I was quite pleased to see his Mum looking very spritely but I am now worrying about the odds of him dying or getting seriously ill before next November. Are there any actuaries posting here? Would anyone like to offer me an “insurance policy” on John McCain’s life/good health for say £1500 upto November 2008 and what would be the premium?
UK mortgage approvals down almost 40% on the year in December. Buy to let and nonconforming mortgage market imploding…ho ho ho
97 - Being ignorant of 19th US politics I’m hedging my bets… Everything he has touched has turned to sh1t though hasn’t it - has anyone really done worse? Pundits say Hoover was the worst in the 20th Century, but at least he was following economic orthodoxy at the time. But Bush has ignored all orthodoxy and fouled up royally.
89 Cicero. You are mistaken. Recent polls show McCain even with both Obama and Clinton.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
I also disagree with those who say that these polls are meaningless at this stage, at least for the McCain-Clinton match-up. Both are very wellknown national figures and people have had a lot of information to make up their minds about them. Obama is a much more unknown quality.
91. McCain would probably just answer in the way he often finishes public meetings after taking questions. By including the word ‘jerks’.
I like the guy, I like his fortitude, his well balanced mix of principle and pragmatism (always a good thing in a politician) and most of all his sheer will. When you read about his campiagn collapsing in summer(and he was running on a comparative shoestring for some time) that bloke deserves credit, win or lose.
I’ve droned on a bit about my ‘good man’ theory of why McCain could do well in areas such as amongst the churchies where the popular perception is that he’s anathema and we can knock on about his age and so on but the guy just seems really really solid. Few would see him as really a risk, few would call him bad or sneaky or whatever. Charismatic, well no, not in a awe inspiring speech on the stump way but like many politicians he knows how to work people.
That scores, potentially as much as airy fairy vision. Combine substance and vision and you’ll be hard to beat, have one without the other and you are always see-sawing between being a winner and a loser because you have a flank to be attacked.
McCain is said to be very quick tempered so there is always room for a campaign slip-up.
Age, race and sex: most of the fuss seems to be artificial and created by spin doctors. Clinton raised the race issue? Really? Had Americans not noticed Obama’s ethnicity? Or that Hillary is a woman and McCain’s getting on a bit?
Most voters won’t care and those who do will hold their noses.
It’s not as if Republicans all over the country will have voted for McCain as GOP candidate only to switch to Obama in November when they see their man’s birth certificate.
Meanwhile Mervyn King is reappointed as gov
98 - Well if that’s Harding’s quote then that self knowledge makes him better than Bush. Bush thinks he knows what he’s doing. Reagan’s strength was knowing he knew nothing and he let his people get on with it. Bush has appointed badly and acted badly
106. And, perhaps much more importantly, Gladiators is returning to our screens.
At least none of them committed treason - unlike George Washington!
105 - No but those who didn’t back him may not row in behind him simply because he is the nominee. Has he broken 40% in any of the primaries yet?
I wasn’t aware until just now that John McCain was born outside of the United States (in the Panama Canal Zone).
I wonder if anyone will challenge his eligibility for office on these grounds?
111 - He couldn’t have got this far if he was constitutionally disbarred.
O/T and sorry if this has been mentioned before, but apparently when Derek Conway lost his seat in 1997 he went on to be in charge of the Cats protection league…yet Nick Palmer is not on here defending him
Come on Nick, moggy lovers together…?!
Saw a picture of his son as well, what a pr*ck he looks. Sympathy will be hard to come by, and deselection surely beckons.
The rules on nationality and citizenship for US Territories vary but in Panama Canal Zone people born before 1st January 2000 with one US citizen parent are considered natural born US citizens so McCain is OK on that.
Romney’s dad ran for President though a Mexican born US citizen - that could have been an interesting Supreme Court judgement on whether a natural born US citizen (with citizenship rights from his parents) is constitutionally OK.
113 Not only that, but it was Conway who stirred it up for IDS regarding the employment of Mrs IDS. All sorts of images spring to mind - motes and beams, glass houses, sauce for geese, pots and kettles etc etc etc.
He is toast.
109. And one or two later Presidents…
115. Good, he deserves it. I think a fair amount of tory MP’s feel the same way too. I would employ a family member if I became an MP, but only if they worked hard.
113. What are the chances of Inspector Knacker being called in, charges being made for fraud offence, resignation and a bye election or is this wishful thinking on my part?
108> Proper news..we should have a ticker on here with stuff like that.
You can bet some bookie will try to make a market out of it if they can…
I’d just like to add my voice to those that have expressed the opinion that 7/4 is good value about the GOP in November. I’ve been backing at that level, but not heavily; I’m just a tad concerned about the impact of possible independent third csandidates, such as Paul or Bloomberg.
117 Curiously, one of the shining examples of good practice in this area (if not in many others) is the Hamiltons, Neil and Christine. Regardless of the opprobrium heaped upon them, there was never any doubt that she worked extremely hard for him.
The Republicans have made a sensible choice. Someone commented a few days ago that the Republicans are pretty good at choosing the most electable candidate for President (by luck or good judgement) and they seem to be doing it again.
WRT Conway, it is particularly picquant that he should have been one of those hounding IDS over his (entirely legitimate)employment of his wife. I don’t know where commentators get the idea from that he’s a popular MP. Everyone I’ve spoken to who’s in a posititon to know says that he’s one of the most unpopular and unpleasant members of the Conservative Party.
121. And it seems entirely innocent as well……
“Everyone I’ve spoken to who’s in a position to know says that he’s one of the most unpopular and unpleasant members of the Conservative Party.”
Blimey, what an accolade!!
118 Rod Crosby has answered that point. There is no chance of his being prosecuted over the misconduct which the Committee identified.
O/T I presume there are PMQs today.
For once GB must be quite looking forward to it after the last few days for DC.
What will Dave go on? SUs laws perhaps after the interview today in the Sun. Or maybe he will actually bring Northern Rock back up and the way that the debt is to be treated in the National Accounts.
I gather a scheme has been hatched whereby the £55bn will not impinge on the national debt…
Any ideas from anybody else out there?
120. If its McCain I actually think Bloomberg may not hit him as heavily as he may do others on the GOP slate.
125. Sean - thanks but will he be required to repay the money that he was not entitled to and how much is that likely to be?
121 I rather like Neil Hamilton. During the libel case, he was being cross-examined by Carman, who said “You refuse to listen to anything you find disagreeable, don’t you?”
“Well, I’m listening to you, aren’t I”, was Hamilton’s riposte.
Talking of which, one of the best put-downs came during the Gillian Taylforth case, when Carman had denounced her “depraved sexual appetites” at length, for the benefit of the jury. Michael Beloff replied that “hearing m’learned friend denouncing the depraved sexual appetites of the Plaintiff is like receiving a lecture in ethics from the Devil.”
122- “he Republicans are pretty good at choosing the most electable candidate for President”
1996 being a glaring exception
128 The Committee has recommended he repay £13,000. It will be for the Commons to accept or reject this recommendation.
130 - Would anyone have fared better?
122. Sean Fear.
“Everyone I’ve spoken to who’s in a posititon to know says that he’s one of the most unpopular and unpleasant members of the Conservative Party. ”
Absolutely right.
Two MPs (both friends of mine) have been told to “F**k Off” by Derek Conway before when they approached him to discuss an issue at an inopportune moment.
It didn’t exactly endear him to them.
And I understand they are not alone at experiencing the rough-end of his tongue.
A thoroughly unpleasant man who has probably now done us a huge amount of damage.
(I like Neil Hamilton too btw, I also have a soft-spot for the reformed Jonathan Aitken - still hate Archer, he is in the “Conway” category AFAIC)
112 - I agree it’s unlikely but the Constitution hasn’t actually been tested (i.e. interpreted by the Supreme Court) on the issue. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_born_citizen
None of these [prior Presidential] candidates was elected, so it has never been fully addressed whether children born to Americans overseas are “natural-born citizens” and thus eligible for the Presidency.
It would be a foolish Democrat who tried to make anything of it!
126 - Our magnificent leader, Gordon Brown, will win PMQs 5-0 today. Can’t wait.
135 - I wouldn’t be so sure!
136 - The Gravitas, Dynanism and Untaintedness of Gordon will shine against Cameron, who possesses none of these great traits.
127 Yes, I understand that Yokel, but it’s still like betting Ante Post when you’re not sure who is going to enter the race.
PMQs - A PLEA.
This site is at its worst at PMQs. Can we all please refrain from the “Cameron is rubbish” or “Brown is appalling” type of comments based on our differing allegiances. It is just boring because it happens every week.
Let’s try to look at it a bit more objectively with less of the name-calling.
I’ve switched on automated moderation which means that contributors not recognised by the sever will not be able to publish instantly.
135. Two things, first GB has shown he can quite easily mess up even the easiest opportunities. And second, Cameron is always at his best when up against it, as he showed late last year.
139 LOL!
That’s the first time, Mike, that the children have been shown the naughty chair before they misbehaved!!
Of the four presidents who died of natural causes, all were significantly younger than McCain is now. All of the recent “old-timers”, Eisenhower, Reagan, and Bush Snr, suffered potentially life-threatening episodes during their terms of office, as well as deteriorating mental powers. Many of the younger incumbents had poor health as well. It’s fine saying McCain seems hale and hearty now, but that does not factor in the considerable weight of the office to which he aspires. The VP choice will be critical.
There’s a fascinating website, run by a doctor, which goes in-depth into the medical histories of the presidents…
http://www.doctorzebra.com/prez/g_roster.htm
Re: Hoover. While he may be one of the “worst” presidents, it’s hard to see how anyone given the circumstances could have done better, and many of the New Deal policies attributed to FDR were in fact commenced during the Hoover administration. Secondly, Hoover’s long life was one of the most interesting and worthwhile, and his humanitarian achievements probably exceed those of the rest of the presidents put together. Thirdly, throughout his years of public service, he never drew a single cent of his salary entitlement! Fourthly, not many people are aware that his Veep, Charles Curtis was a Native American Indian…
Hoover may have been a poor president, but he was A truly GREAT man…
How long will it take The Speaker to interrupt to allow Brown to recover his composure? It has been a while since GB nearly ‘lost’ his temper.
Perhaps Cameron could ask about progress on the missing HMRC disks, or the hunt for the missing MOD laptop. Some questions were being asked in the FT about the point of the regional ministers in England, and the latest PFI foul up with the air to air tanker fleet for the RAF.
Perhaps Cameron could congratulate Brown on the reappointment of Mervyn King, and then ask if the Bank’s remit has altered in any way to tackle falling growth rather than inflation.
Perhaps Cameron will move away from the 6 questions in a row format.
100 US life tables from 2003 show approx 3.5% probability for a healthy man of McCain’s age dying within a year.
144 - but would McCain be considered healthy, surely his previous cancer scares would weigh against him etc