Will a numbers war work again next time?
January 30th, 2008
Will Labour be able to use the approach of this 2005 election broadcast?
Click on the link above and see how Labour used one of its final election TV slots in the days before the last general election. It’s effective and follows a well-established tested formula that helped underpin the 1997, 2001 and 2005 victories.
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Looking at it through today eyes, though, it appears outdated. Will this work again? How long will the demonisation of the Tories in this form continue to be a vote-winning strategy?
Judging by the continued references to David Cameron’s alleged role on Black Wednesday in 1992 and the way that Gord deals with almost any situation by quoting a barrage of numbers it looks as though the 2010 campaign will be the 2005 one with up to date numbers.
The problem is that for large sections of the electorate in two years time a Tory government will not be part of their memories. They were just too young and there must come a point where this type of election rhetoric doesn’t resonate any more.
On top of this, of course, a key part of the Osborne-Cameron strategy has been to designed to ensure that this sort of Labour attack will not have the potency it once had. There also a much greater mistrust, in the media at least, of government statistics. Thus when ministers assert that crime is down this is not widely believed.
It seems to me that Labour needs to develop a new rhetoric for a new situation. So far, at least, we have seen little from the new PM.
Mike Smithson
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Sorry to go off-thread so fast, but AP saying Edwards to quit. Quick questions - what happens to the delegates he already has?
Shadsy last thread. He could stay neutral.
James Burdett is right, I think him and Hillary have bigger overlap in voter base so even if he does endorse Obama he may nto carry them enough to get Obama over the line.
I’d also like to say thanks to his campaign team for indicating he’d stay in….cheers lads I done some calculations based on that and now they are shot. No money lost but a possible betting strategy was being formed around it that. Maybe I got lucky…
Anyway i must thanks to John for actually making me some money though that bet on getting the nomination…what a mug….
Perhaps, apart from money, Edwards problem is that if he goes all the way to the finish then starts playing kingmaker for Obama he may be going against his base and badly so he’s not going to try.
The only other alternative is Edwards for VP? Unlikely indeed but who can tell.
OT on Edwards too: I suspect he would have liked to go all the way to the convention - but, without a win, he’s probably not got the cash for a credible challenge.
I suppose McCain’s win in Florida is another important factor. There is a significant possibility that the Republican race could be effectively won by McCain next week. A situation where McCain can gear up for November, having defeated his critics, while Democrats are spending money and fighting against each other all the way up to a brokered convention, would clearly be highly damaging for the Dems, however interesting it would be for political observers. Edwards wouldn’t want to take the blame for such a situation.
OT on Edwards too: I suspect he would have liked to go all the way to the convention - but, without a win, he’s probably not got the cash for a credible challenge.
I suppose McCain’s win in Florida is another important factor. There is a significant possibility that the Republican race could be effectively won by McCain next week. A situation where McCain can gear up for November, having defeated his critics, while Democrats are spending money and fighting against each other all the way up to a brokered convention, would clearly be highly damaging for the Dems, however interesting it would be for political observers. Edwards wouldn’t want to take the blame for such a situation.
Could this be the shortest thread in pb.com History. Great vid though!
Edwards withdrawning can only help Clinton. He attracts the same kind on voters as Clinton, white and low income. He got viturually no black support, so nothing much for Obama to mop up.
I saw on CNN a few days ago that Edwards and Clinton spent a long time talking after a debate, and there was some speculation she may appoint him as AG.
Reposted re James’s comment on previous thread…
204 Yes, James. There’s some evidence that he has tended to take voters more from Hillary, so his departure ought to help her a bit. This might be counteracted by an endorsement for Obama, but he may well decide to stay neutral, and even if he doesn’t, his say-so won’t influence that many voters.
I think we can take it however that he would not endorse Clinton.
5. Could be derailed rather quickly thats for sure.
Anyway have we a time of an announcement from Camp Edwards?
5 Mike did actually get a complaint once that there was too much US stuff on here!
Why so many threads with youtube clips (I assume)? Can’t watch them at work
How much longer until we have a candidate for both Republicans and Democrats, and we can forget this dull US stuff until the actual election which matters starts in maybe September?
On topic, I can only say that I have yet to meet anyone who believes crime statistics. General apathy and disbelief abounds, but also little enthusiasm for Tories or liberals. A plague on all their houses is the most common sentiment.
No of course Labour won’t follow this strategy again. There are 2 points here - the use of statistics, and maybe Gordo overdoes them sometimes, and negative vs positive. I am sure that miliband and others who will determine the manifesto+advertising realise that there has to be a balance between negative messages and more hopeful and aspirational stuff.
Actually this is where Dave is having problems - he has now apparently dropped the Fotherington- Thomas bit and got all gloomy, and this turns off the punters.
This indecision is probably because his advisers are fighting like ferrets in a sack. And I bet the Conway debacle isn’t helping, the Davis-ites are said to be p*ssed off…
9 Will you have to follow the news, how Labour wins teh next GE should wait till tomorrow.
8 Who says Edwards is Camp?
As some bloke on politico said, with Edwards dropping out, the Dem debate tomorrow will be one on one. Time for the big guns at this one.
On thread - I think that a numbers strategy only works where the numbers are directed into a fear environment. 1992 public feared/were wary of Kinnock the tax bombshell numbers played on that. Likewise with 2005 there was wariness and fear of Howard and the Conservatives so putting a number on it worked. It will work less or not at all because the numbers have less fear to hang on, it becomes a thin air price.
[previous thread] - pie chucker - You twice referred to the vote “in December” when referring to the US Presidential election later this year, which will be held in November.
Was this a mistake, or is there something you know about the likelihood of this election being decided by a vote of the Supreme Court [again]?
Just checking..
O/T as reposted from last thread (resulting from PtP’s post inevitably triggering Mike putting up this new one):
This US election has reminded me in stark terms of two very basic rules about betting.
Like a number of others here, I initially backed Huck both to win the GOP nomination as well as the Presidency and for a while he did well and his price shortened. Then, almost imperceptively, he started to lose favour in a way I barely noticed, so that over the past few weeks, he has become a no-hoper. I should have laid him, but was fast asleep.
Fortunately, during December, again influenced by PB.com, I backed McCain quite heavily and at good prices, but then realised that I was exposed to quite heavy losses on the Democrats winning and after Obama’s success in Iowa, I backed him, only for Hillary to win in NH and elsewhere. Then there were the rumours of Bloomberg entering the field and then suggestions that Romney was gaining support on the GOP side of things. Result - a complete mess and a huge mistake in trying to cover the field, something we all know you should never attempt.
Yes, unlesss there are unforeseen events, I will make money on the US elections, thanks to McCain, hopefully of between £200-£400 (depending on the Democratic outcome).
However, had I laid off Huck as I should, and just stayed with McCain, my profit stood to be well into four figures. I suppose a slight disadvantage of being a PB.com devotee is that I, for one, tend to react to polls and betting movements more so than were I more detached.
Has anyone had a similar experience?
4 - I think he made the decision before the Florida results. His campaign team announced a change of schedule yesterday - he’s speaking in New Orleans where he started his campaign rather than any of the Feb 5th states.
I agree at first glance that it benefits Hillary but wouldn’t be certain of it. Obama has shown he can pick up white votes - and these voters will now be looking around for a candidate to support giving Obama a chance to win them over. A change in the dynamics may help him more, he is the beter campaigner and and has a more powerful message.
Obviously this is all speculation but I wouldn’t be so sure that this gives Hillary a certain boost. Makes Super Tuesday even more interesting!
There has still been very little movement on Spreadfair’s Next GE Seats market with the Tories quoted at 301-304.5, despite the recent polls and their recent little local difficulties.
There was about £2k put up on the lay side on Betfair at 1.56 earlier today for Clinton. I guess somebody knew about the Edwards’ decision and read it the same as us - generally favorable for Clinton.
16. Though I’ve done well , and in some ways this could be a golden age of political punting for me, my donkeys on the US races have been largely because I have ignored what most people were saying and my best wins is because I largely ignored what most people were saying!
It cuts both ways I reckon.
According to the AP report Edwards wont endorse anyone right away.
He has it appears got 56 delegates..out of a hell of a lot to come.
I notice a BBC correspondant has picked up on this idea of Huck as a running mate
Well, I’m sad Edwards is dropping out. I thought he was an impressive campaigner. That said, his message never really had a chance when the media decided to make this Obama vs Hillary- Which happened only after obama won Iowa.
unless Edwards endorses Obama, This has got to help Hillary, hasn’t it? She’s ahead in most of the Feb 5th states, the edwards vote won’t all go to Obama -his support tends to be white, working class, rural, and now it’s a straght fight with her ahead and a week to go.
Conway to stand down!
24 - at next election not immediately btw!
The numbers Brown keeps coming out with are widely disbelieved, especially the ones on crime and inflation. Cameron has so far effectively bashed Brown for constantly using statistics, and after years of them being thrown at the electorate they have started to disbelieve them too. Brown has also stopped claiming Cameron as part of black wednesday, especially after Cameron pointed out Brown’s prior credentials as a member of CND etc.
15. The public election is on November 4th, however techinically that is only to determine who the presidential electors will be. The actual election to choose the President and Vice-President - when those electors cast their own ballots - is held in December and counted in early January.
24, call me a cynic, but after a few years he might get a peerage, or be made head of a quango looking into the effects of lapdance clubs on middle-aged men’s self-esteem. Cameron gets to look tough, and Conway’s followers won’t kick up too much of a fuss.
I said the same about Challon[sp] remaining as my MP when Ballsov wanted the constituency for himself.
25. Cameron has got his way then.
16 Not really Peter, and I wonder if its because I don’t use the exchanges like betfair. I never thought Huckabee could be nominee, and because I couldn’t directly lay him, I was less tempted to try to play the short term movements and focused on who the ultiamte winner might be.
In terms of the nominee betting, I got on McCain at long odds as I figured that there would ultimately be a consensus (stop Huckabee/Rudy) nominee which I thought either McCain or Thompson could conceivably fill. I was never a believer in Romney’s price as I don’t think he can win a two horse race, although I have hedged my McCain positions now. My basic philosophy in both races has been to back the establishment machine not the insurgent, although until recently Clinton’s odds were prohibitive.
Well I hope nobody followed Mike Smithson’s advice on January 8th.
“Romney now looks doomed which leaves the former favourite, Rudy Giuliani and the Iowa victor, Mike Huckabee. It is on these two where my money is going. The humanity, the humour and the appeal of the ex-Mayor of New York came over well in the New Hampshire debate and he is going to take a lot of beating.”
LOL.
Does it really follow that Edwards supporters are more likely to go to Hillary? I appreciate Obama has been struggling to get his share of the white, blue collar voters and that Hillary and Edwards have been fishing from this same pool. But could the Edwards’ supporters be the subset of this group that would be prepared to go for Obama over Hillary? Just a thought.
11. One of the more laughable recent astroturfing efforts, with various bullsh*t assertions presented as ‘insider info’.
Works for me every time!
33. Define works?
OT - Titan prisons. Private Eye suggested they were created as an idea solely to be dropped, so that the notional funding set aside for them could be ‘cut’.
The Justice Scretary sounded very lukewarm today about them, but our Great Helmsman sounded like they were still definitely going ahead, despite the fact that certain people involved in prisons think they’re a bloody silly idea.
Reckon they’ll go ahead?
31. The issue is profile. Clinton has scored well amongst the old reliable groups and that is exactly why she is a worthy favourite. The blue collars, older people, the poor, and some ethnic groups women etc.
Look at Edwards profile,good untion backing, comparatively leftist and populist stuff…chiming with a fair section of the traditional grassroots Democrats
You can see the overlap.
The thing that may help Obama most is not his own race but what is happening with the GOP. If McCain looks the winner all over then the idea of ‘who to take on who’ starts to gain traction within the Deomcrats.
The McCain versus Obama/Clinton head to heads do not show any of then runnng away with it so its not necessarily a killer to Hillary but Obama’s favourable showing can only help.
One wider point, so much fcus has been on the Dems and the idea of a change candidate and all that. If the GOP pick McCain he is a change candidate in his own right and perhaps gives a good indication of what way that party is thinking.
35. No - bring back transporation instead. Cheap and effective - a criminal justice masterpiece.
Transportation where though? Australia is nicer than here now!
37 But where to, Harry? Australia is pretty damn near full.
34. “Define works?”
…reminds me of the halcyon days of Maggie and John…..reminds me of Michael Howard…reminds me to ask ‘Dave’ (if ever I meet him) what first attracted him to the Tory Party of Maggie….and finally it reminds me of the sweet smell of roses in ‘97………..
Any chance of getting Conway to stand down aooner, so that we can have some betting on the By Election?
40. On second thoughts, don’t bother.
41 - I honestly don’t think there is much appetite for a by-election in any party.
41. I doubt it. He’s got to give his wife and sons two years notice.
39. Somewhere really grim, like Antarctica, or perhaps Liverpool.
45. Liverpool! You cruel, cruel man!
45 - Antarctica might be interesting, if you force them to conserve polar bears or penguins good bit of third wayism too!
46, could be worse. Could be Glasgow, where you have to contend with the street gangs, an Kingpin Gorbals Mick.
47, polar bears are only in the Arctic:p
46, 48 - I reckon making the Isle of Wight a massive open prison is the answer - with gunboats in the Solent to prevent any attempted swimming…
49 - Geography was never my strong suit!
50 - The flaw being the lack of gunboats!
EDWARDS & GIULIANI
The Morning after is becoming as much of an event as Primary Day, what with all the also rans taking the opportunity to deliver their swan songs.
Think impact of Edwards’ withdrawl is somewhat difficult to calculate because:
–demographics of Edwards supporters similar (though more male) to Clinton supporters, sugggesting they are prime targets for her.
–ideology, issues and perspective of Edwards supporters is oriented to change and alienation from the establishment and status quo, suggesting they are also prime targets for Obama
–unknown impact of any endorsement - explicit or strongly implicit - by Edwards
As for Giuliani, think there is little impact with respect to where his vote will be going, because he has so little, as outside Florida every poll, primary and caucus has witnessed Rudy’s support evaporating to the vanishing point.
The real impact is to highlight and possibly amplify by a wee bit McCain’s momentum coming out of Florida.
I wish you could see the political ad we had from the Obama campaign - boring was the key word …
Hi - This is Obama he is partisan - key Republican politician to speak all nicely - next all about his blameless record in the Senate - next Democrat speaks nicely - then Obama drones on … give us a bit of spice pleae
41 - Would it be possible for one of the also-rans in the US presidential race to come to the Old Country to run in the byelection?
Think that Fred Thompson might relish the chance for an encore, to help breath new dymanmism into the front bench of the Tory Party!
Or perhaps Dennis Kucinich might decide to cross the aisle to become a “Blue Tory”?
And if you snared Bill Richardson, could have him undertake very ticklish negotiations with the madmen whom according to the Telegraph, Iain Dale and other “fair and balanced” are living in a horrific fantasy land as repelant as anything Big Bill’s had to deal with in Pyongyang.
53 - Similarly with the dems I find Edwards’ going difficult to read. If they were going to vote for either of the others then what was stopping them?
McCain must surely benefit from Giuliani though, if not in votes then in momentum.
What will be interesting is (if Clinton does get it) how having an annoyed section of both the parties will turn out. Will there be cross pollination of voters who can’t stomach the negatives of their own party’s nominee?
I also think that McCain winning means that Bloomberg as a possible candidate starts to recede into the distance.
53 - But what about NY and NJ, where he still had a rapidly diminishing base? If that vote goes to McCain, as eveyone seems to expect, then he can lock down those states and concentrate on others.
53 - But what about NY and NJ, where he still had a rapidly diminishing base? If that vote goes to McCain, as eveyone seems to expect, then he can lock down those states and concentrate on others.
53 - But what about NY and NJ, where he still had a rapidly diminishing base? If that vote goes to McCain, as eveyone seems to expect, then he can lock down those states and concentrate on others.
SocGen ready to consider friendly takeover offers…
Maybe Northern Rock would be interested?
43
There may no be much of an appetite for a by-election, but there could be one in Eastbourne!
http://tinyurl.com/38jnvn
Apologies about the multiple posts - not sure what’s causing them.
30 I take your point Paul - but Betfair should actually have provided me with the means, which I failed to utilize in exiting from my bets on Huck.
You refer to having now hedged your positions on McCain - I assume you mean by betting on Hillary and Obama, i.e. a bit like me!
I believe that the GOP “establishment” in fact very much favoured Giuliani or Romney as their candidate over McCain.
54 - Just softening up your hard-shell, you Hillarian! The charisma will come, wait for it.
BUT will pass along your critique to Team Axelrod.
And by all means do keep up the dispatches from the front.
Only ads so far in WA (caucuses Feb 9, primary Feb 19) have been CNN cable for Obama & Huckabee. Though we’re an afterthought right now (as per usual) would expect to start seeing something fairly soon on the air, because absentee and vote-by-mail ballots for the primary will be mailed to voter this week.
62 Your errant finger???
Name check for the party on Friday in this week’s Guardian Backbencher mail out.
The Backbencher wasn’t invited to PoliticalBetting.com’s party on
Friday - which was a pity, as she loves the National Liberal Club.
Happily, both of the ladies present received plenty of attention -
not least from the photographer
65. Don’t criticise Tangent - he might go off on one!
Worth reading for those who don’t like Cameron.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,2248900,00.html
65 - Perhaps Kucinich’s little green buddies are have bent out of shape, because their Earth-Link was forced out of the race before they could dispatch armie of illegal android electors from Planet Diebold, to manipulate electronic ballots from Cape Code to Pismo Beach?
Sorry you’re bearing the brunt for our sins.
An interesting aside on the Conway affair from Brogan, hmmmmm…
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
67 - Just like this thread….
65 - That’s what odd - I specifically clicked once (although I’m doing more than one thing at the same time).
61. If we’re going to have by-elections for being arrested but not charged, then we had all better pack our bags for Neath very soon.
68. Sure Cameron will lose loads of votes due to that little piece.
Not a Cameron fan but i must admit that his decisiveness on Conway will li,it damage and play very well compared to Gordons (percived dithering over Hain)
I agree that edwards going this early and not endorsing anyone is mildly favourable to hillary as at least demographically they have been fishing in similar pools. I’m just surprised he didn’t keep going another week and pick up a few more delegates in case it goes all the way to denver.
Re Mc Cain again i agree. I think the only fly in the ointment is that he is winning these primaries with 30 something % in Rep only ballots. It does suggest that there is oxygen still for the Romney candidacy if he is prepared to gamble another $30m to keep through super tuesday. Given that this is probably his only shot and its only another week i hope he adds to the gaiety of nations and keeps going.
72. Few votes lost indeed, but it will at least be a comforting read for the likes of Roger.
61. I doubt it. There’s very little to this story, as far as I can tell.
73 - I think the point of his low levels in GOP only contests isn’t the lifeline to Romney though there is that it is the effect on the General election. Will every single one of those 60%+ who don’t think McCain is the best candidate show up for him in November, if not he will struggle. Remember there is a suspicion in the GOP that he is a bit of a RINO.
63 Peter re hedged. No I mean I hedged by backing Romney as nominee. I haven’t gone near the presidential betting as it combines two variables -the nomination and the ultimate presidency which are not neccessarilly independent and hence too tricky for me to manage around, unless the value is ridiculous.
73 - not being partisan, but what a contrast between the decisive and painless way the Tories have dealt with their little local difficulty this week and the way Ditherer Brown deals with things.
All done and dusted within 48 hours, the MP in question is reprimanded and then stands down in the interests of the party and the Leader he didn’t originally support, all to avoid damage to the Tory cause. He’ll be seething of course, but he’s a silly old fool and will know he’s got what he deserved. Labour members are just no good at falling on their swords.
If this does result in a by-election of course post any criminal charges that might arise, the excuse for any Tory defeat is already there - local voters punishing the party for the antics of the previous incubment.
Next US Presidential state is
Feb 1 = Maine (GOP only) caucuses
COMPLETE LIST OF SUPER TUESDAY STATES
Alabama primary
Alaska caucus
Arizona primary
Arkansas primary
California primary
Colorado caucus
Delaware primary
Connecticut primary
Georgia primary
Idaho (Dem only)caucus
Illinois primary
Kansas (Dem only)caucus
Massachusetts primary
Minnesota caucus
Missouri primary
Montana (Rep only)
New Jersey primary
New Mexico (Dem only)caucus
New York primary
North Dakota caucus
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Utah primary
West Virginia (Rep only) caucus
61 I really would wait to get some details before rushing to judgment on this one - there is a reason Tim Montgomerie posted this on COnHome.
“What I’ve been told about last night’s incident has made me respect the man more than I have ever done before. ”
and PB is not the place to jump to conlcusions without weighing the evidence fairly - except at PMQs where Gordon is just rubbish.
78 I’m no fan of Cameron. But, he has certainly played a blinder on this one.
I guess that became clear from the hysterics of Hopi Sen and others on pb.com yesterday.
While Keith Vaz, Peter Hain and the other Labour malefactors are still there.
Marcel Berlins’ attack is standard boilerplate.
There is one key difference between Conway and Brown’s trouble’s over sleaze: official condemnation. Leaders can only act when the official verdict is known. The Electoral Commission’s decision to call in the Met evoked a swift response, just as Cameron’s decision stemmed from the S&P Committee decision and its reaction to it. The difference was that the Hain story had built up a head of steam before the EC, whereas few people cared about Conway before the report was made public.
82. Even fewer people care about Conway now.
68. I sympathise with Cameron on this. I don’t think the quality of school you get in to should be decided on your religious belief any more than it should be decided on your race. If parents tell a white lie to get round this unfair system it’s understandable.
I wonder too how this week will go - with us Minnesotans on the 5th you would expect a bit more of an effort from Hillary and Barack - all we get is 2 copies of that dire Obama ad on CNN - a little mention on the news we have a caucus - a flying visit by Obama this Saturday - and no news from Hillary yet - I am wondering if this place will fall into the Obama camp … will keep up the front line missives if we hear any more news .. or if we even fathom out who is going to win here … odds are we will only know on Feb 5 - but we will see - and who will the Star Tribune endorse no news on that yet either …
MNBC over and out
82, I agree with the head of steam point. However, it was obvious that Hain had not declared over £100,000 of donations/loans, in breach of the law, and Brown still prevaricated.
Not sacking him for £5,000 may be understandable, but £100,000, half of which was through a phantom thinktank, was not. Especially when you call your own minister an incompetent.
Cameron’s played this pretty well.
82 A rather silly piece by Marcel Berlins, who’s usually more thoughtful.
I would not condemn people who do whatever they lawfully can do to get their children into good State schools.
85. A lack of advertising and publicity only helps Clinton, with her pre-existing big name.
Based upon results in states that have already voted/caucused, here is my take
DEMOCRATS
Clinton advantage: Arkansas, New Jersey, New York (favorite daughter)
Obama advantage: Alabama, Georgia (based on SC result); Illinois (favorite son); Massachusetts (Kenedy endorsement)
Rest are up for grabs (to varying degrees) depending upon this week’s campaign.
REPUBLICANS
McCain advantage: Arizona (favorite son), New York, New Jersey (head of steam plus what’s left of Rudy)
Romney advantage: Utah (Mormon vote)
others up for grabs, but with generalized advantage for McCain; though Huckabee may have reserve strength in southern states, though SC challenges this.
and on the Republican side here in MN - Palwenty our Gov is campaigning hard for the McCain camp - so would assume that McCain will do well here - but who knows - Romney could surprise us all ..
However, it was obvious that Hain had not declared over £100,000 of donations/loans, in breach of the law, and Brown still prevaricated.
But then, you can look as if you’re prejudging the Electoral Commission, especially if they decided to take a lenient view - which then raises the bar the next time an incident occurs, with ministers being forced to resign on sheer suspicion. He could hardly sack Hain without sacrificing Wendy Alexander, and threatening to destroy Harriet Harman - damaging, and all bigger fish within their own parties than Conway is. There’s no hard-and-fast playbook, though, I admit - perception is the primary factor.
Genuinely being non-partisan!
If anyone thinks the general public will give Cameron any credit for his “swiftness” over this, they are sorely mistaken.
Cameron could have demanded Conway commit Hari-kari within 30 minutes of this nasty, corrupt little man being discovered and it still wouldn’t have made any difference.
The story alone will just reinforce the “You’re all the same”, “Bad as each other”, “Corrupt Self-serving gravy-train snouts-in-the-trough criminal B*stards” view still further. And it will knock 2-3% off our next opinion poll ratings to boot.
The only advantage is that *maybe* it will prematurely kill the news story off before it alerts too many people to the fact it ever happened it the first place.
And even that assumption depends on the media NOT using this as a premise to start digging into the financial affairs of other MPs - of which, I’m sure, not all are squeaky clean - which will reinforce and play out this story still further.
The public are so cynical now, on any story, they will ASSUME the worst.
Very sad..
I’m well-disposed towards Cameron, but his initial backing of Conway was not his finest hour. He did redeem himself by taking the right decision a day late. I don’t think either Brown or Cameron have much to be proud of.
The Conway case was much more serious than the Hain case, but then Conway was much less important.
85 - Minnesota would indeed appear to be a natural target for Obama, given its demographics, proximity to Iowa and fact that like its Hawkeye neighbor, the Gopher State is a caucus state.
News that will make you smile, Rej:
BULLETIN: Popular senior US Senator Patty Murray of Washington (aka “The Mom in Tennis Shoes”) will endorse HILLARY CLINTON for President today.
The pint-sized Murray is a giant when it comes to standing up for veterans, in particular diabled Iraq War vets. For example, she’s played a key role in exposes the horrible conditions at Walter Reed and other hospitals for active duty soldiers and veterans.
Her endoresment won’t swing WA on its own, but it’s very good news for Clinton in a state that on paper looks like very good turf for Obama.
91 No I don’t this holds.
The party leader — having wighted the evidence — can and should make his or her own mind up on whether a minister of MP should remain.
It is perfectly reasonable and desirable for Brown to have HIGHER standards than the Electoral Commission.
Clearly, Conway could have remained, there would have been a fuss. Conway would have been banned from the HoC — but so were Keith Vaz, and others.
Cameron decided — correctly in my view — that higher standards than the bare minimum were needed for his MPs.
92 I think that’s too pessimistic.
92. Nobody will care about Cameron’s swiftness, but it gets it out of the headlines. The thing about sleaze is not any one individual newstory, where most free-minded individuals will often give someone the benefit of the doubt, but the continual drip, drip, drip of it. Conway will now be quickly forgotten, which is what is important.
Rumour is that Edwards didn’t want to be a Super Tuesday ’spoiler candidate’ so thats why he is dropping out. Interesting wonder whose chances he thinks he was spoiling? Could be a hint of where his endorsement might go, I wouldnt expect it until after the Super Tuesday vote though.
93 No, I don’t think the Conway case was much more serious than the Hain. They were different, but both are very serious.
As I have pointed out, the Conway case is more similar to Vaz — unfortunately, Vaz is still there.
89. Surely you can also put Missouri in Obama’s list and New Mexico in Clinton’s.
Interesting how the Speaker hasn’t been pulled up on his wife’s numerous expenses, courtesy of the taxpayer. I don’t like Gorbals Mick, and the post should’ve been given to a Tory or Lib Dem.
98. I could see Edwards endorsing Obama to sew it up for him IF Obama wins Super Tuesday.
The state’s racial composition in 2005 was:[44]
* 86.3% White (non-Hispanic);
* 4.1% Black (non-Hispanic);
* 3.6% Hispanic, a category that includes people of many races;
* 3.4% Asian/Pacific Islander;
* 1.1% Native American/Alaskan Native;
* 1.5% mixed race;
* 1.8% other races.
This is the racial composition of MN -
94 - small stories about the diminutive but mighty Senator Patty Murray (D-WA)
When she first ran for US Senator in 1992, Patty was a state senator from suburbs just north of Seattle, had previously been a local school board member. Her entire orientation was grassroots; indeed the pundits pooh-poohed her chances of ever being elevated to the US Senate.
Early that year my local Democratic legislative district organization held its monthly meeting, and invited Patty to speak. At the same time, the powers-that-be organized a bake sale to raise a few bucks for the local party organization.
If I remember corectly, Patty brought some very good banana bread. Obviously homemade, in her home, by her. And she never thought a thing about it, cause it was the kind of thing she’d been doing for years. But definitely a bit different for a candidate for US Senate.
Which is why she won.
Early in her career, when she tried to lobby the legislature on behalf of schools and kids, a grizzled old lobbyist told her she was wasting her time, that equally cynical legislators wheren’t going to listen to “a mom in tennis shoes.” To which Patty asked the obvious question: “Why not?” Plus the obvious rejoinder: IF they won’t listen, will make them listen.
Which she did - big time!
There is a bit of mild hypocrisy from some of the blue chorus on here, they complain about Brown being too top down and stalinist, but when he defers a decision to an independent body he’s a ditherer. You can’t have it both ways.
99. ..and sitting as he does for what amounts to a rotten borough, he will be there for some while to come as well.
103 - Also Minnesota has plenty of universities & colleges large & small, plus progressive, insurgent tradition.
94. Why do American states all have a nickname?
The Palmetto State? The Hawkeye State? The Gopher State?
It’s kind of naff. Do you have to have a nickname before you can become a state?
Puerto Rico: we’d like to become a state?
USA: Sorry, gotta have a nickname first
Puerto Rico: How about “Puerto Rico”?
USA: Nah. Something wacky
Puerto Rico: OK. The Jalapeno State?
USA: Cliched
Puerto Rico: The Cheap Au Pair State?
USA: Racist
Puerto Rico: the State that makes you go ‘mmm’!
USA: That’s better
We could have it England. Herefordshire. The Incest County!
I’m sure John Loony would appreciate this diversion in the thread.
Sawadee.
Forgive my cynicism, but suspect Edwards has decided to back *whoever* seems to be the winner after Super Tuesday.
Tuesday seems to be the last Chance Saloon for Romney - if McCain is perceived as winning most of it, I’d say he’s the nominee. The Democrat race could last a while longer, but we ought to have a fair guess after Tuesday. Those of you who have bet vast fortunes on it might well want to stay up late, fingers poised…
I’m always surprised by how many start their posts with “I’m no fan of Cameron But…” and then go on to wax lyrical about him. If the lady isn’t protesting too much why the necessity for the disclaimer?
105. There’s a clearly difference between trying to micromanage every aspect of government and enforcing discipline in your own party.
“We could have it England. Herefordshire. The Incest County!”
I thought that was East Anglia?
110 Roger — because it happens to be true.
If you’ve got the energy, go back and look at the record of my postings over the last 2 years — and you’ll see that it is true. I’m no fan of Cameron.
But, I am still less of a fan of sleaze. It so happens on this occasion, Cameron called it right.
100 - Perhaps, perhaps not.
IF I was on Team Axelrod, would send Teddy Kennedy to northern New Mexico, southern Colorado and every bario in California to campaign full time this week for Obama.
For IF Ted can reignite the flame of Bobby Kennedy’s memory in the heart of Chicano America, could seriously change the dymanic in Obama’s favor.
On topic, i think it will and it won’t, the numbers still favour Labour greatly. I believe them less, but in my own personal experience every relationship i have had with the public services has been great and the numbers are the only way i can look beyond just my personal experience.
Brown does have more of a reputation as being more numerate and serious which means Cameron can easily run rings round him with a few well placed soundbites, although it makes DC look a bit of a lightweight. Personally i feel as though the winner will be whoever can come up with a positive message for the next election, Cameron is doing this the best, but methinks not well enough…yet.
Also, has anyone noticed the Suns front page today? Cameron wishes to be tougher than Brown on stop and search, i suppose so long as his left hand doesn’t know what his right hands doing he can still claim to be for less government and individual liberty.
I was looking at MPs suspended from the House of Commons..and what happened to them at nexte GE…since 1990 17 MPs have been suspended from the House:
John Browne (1990), Dick Douglas (1990), Rev Paislay (1993), David Tredinnick (1995), Graham Riddick (1995), Bob Wareing (1997), Ernie Ross (1999), Don Touhig (1999), Kali Mountford (1999), Teresa Gorman (2000), Geoffry Robinson (2001), Keith Vaz (2002), Michael Trend (2003), Clive Betts (2003), Jonathan Sayeed (2005), George Galloway (2007), Derek Conway (2008)
Roger (110), as usual, I did the opposite. Mind you, I like Gordon Brown too, and I don’t think he has covered himself in glory on this issue either.
Roger (112), Philadelphia is the City of Brotherly Love, but I have a hunch they meant something different.
108 - Good stuff, Sean!
States have nicknames I think, because people like me get tired of repeating the actual name every time in extended discourse. So the first time you allude to South Carolina, next time you say SC, then you get bored and say Palmetto State.
Plus American’s have always loved nicknames, also kids of all ages, because they are fun.
Some nicknames started out as insults, while other nicknames had to be changed when the meaning of the words alterned.
For example, Indiana is the Hoosier (pronounced WHO0-shur) State. What the heck is a Hoosier? Other than an resident of Indiana, nobody really knows. Best guess was that its a anglization of French term meaning “hick”, “yockel” (appologies!), “bumpkin”. Indeed in parts of the south they still refer to “country hoosiers”.
Now the neighboring state of Illinios USED to be known as the “Sucker State”. Apparently “sucker” was orginially much less prejorative, indeed similar to Hoosier. But over time it became a strong prejoritive, in the sense of “what a sucker”, “sucker punch”, etc. So people in Illinois because less and less fond of the nickname, to the point that they essentially banished it in favor of Prairie State or Land of Lincoln.
Giuliani pulling out and backing McCain.
That’s big.
108 - Perhaps the best US State nickname is that of OREGON - the Beaver State.
Indeed, Oregon is so proud of its beavers, that it has a beaver on the BACK of its state flag; the only state that has different symbols on either side of the official state banner.
120 An American friend of my family laughed out loud when he saw the name of a Radlett travel agent, “Beaver Travel.”
119 - Is it official now then?
Brown is still stuttering a bit, and that arguing for 3 years joke was pretty dreadful, could have done much better. His avoidance of answering questions does look shifty, and his constant criticism of Camerons ‘pre-prepared questions’ looks daft, as Brown is far worse at this than Cameron has ever been.
Yup that’s us a nice progressive state MN - just found out our precinct caucus is at the High School just a minutes walk away - would be interesting to go and see what is happening - but we will watch from the comfort of our warm home on t.v. …
Oh good grief, Cameron asks if they will not let some guy into the country, Brown keeps saying ‘he’s not in this country’ which is not what Cameron is saying or asking about.
Conneticut, in Clinton’s back yard, is showing the two front-runners with equal polling at 40-40.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/connecticut/election_2008_connecticut_democratic_presidential_primary
125. Trouble is, according to the Daily Politics, the tories let the same nutter into the country on 5 separate occasions.
127. Was he making threats before?
The North Star State - here in MN
This is a not so nice fact about the Twin Cities,
Of all the major metropolitan areas in the U.S., the Minneapolis-St.Paul metropolitan area has the coldest annual mean temperature of only 44.6 °F (7 °C)
And suffering today at a mild -15F -26C when we woke up and only reached -8F now
At least it will be a little warmer next Tuesday when we have our caucus - around 7F at the night time !!!
I went on a Canadian Beaver Hunt once. … nailed qute a few…
Looks like Conway has killed the Golden Goose…
http://www.inthenews.co.uk/news/politics/committee-chair-backs-review-families-working-mps-1194788.htm
He’ll be Billy No-Mates for the rest of his time as an MP…
Conway:
I can imagine he won’t be the last we find doing this, as Cameron, originally seemed to accept an apology and nothing else, MPs are probably quite relaxed about fiddling expenses. I wonder whether the next MP who’s found doing this will be red or blue?
It’ll be more damaging if it’s found to be endemic on one side.
131. Seems like an overreation. Some active MPs work so much (including from home) that they need an immediate family member to help them 24/7. As long as there are clear records of work, there’s no need to ban it.
133 Most amusing comment on Conway from watchdog on Conservativehome . The first person to resign from his job to spend mre time with his staff .
116 Andrea interesting question on which MPs stood down/deselected at next GE. They were all Conservatives!
Every one of the 8 Labour MPs suspended carried on past at least the next GE apart from 1 who joined the SNP…… 0 Labour MPs stood down or were deselected at next GE.
5 of the 7 Conservatives stood down/deselected at next GE, 2 carried on, 1 of which was voted out.
John Browne CON (1990) deselected and still stood.
Dick Douglas LAB (1990) left LAB joined SNP and lost
Rev Paislay DUP (1993) carried on
David Tredinnick CON (1995) carried on
Graham Riddick CON (1995) fought GE97 and lost (to Kali)
Bob Wareing LAB (1997) carried on and finally deselected 2007
Ernie Ross LAB (1999) carried on, retired GE05
Don Touhig LAB (1999) carried on
Kali Mountford LAB (1999) carried on and was promoted
Teresa Gorman CON (2000) stood down in GE01
Geoffry Robinson LAB (2001) carried on
Keith Vaz LAB (2002) carried on and was promoted
Michael Trend CON (2003) stood down in GE05
Clive Betts LAB (2003) carried on
Jonathan Sayeed CON (2005) deselected for GE05
George Galloway RESP (2007) carried on
Derek Conway CON (2008)stood down next GE
It seems it is best to be a Labour MP, their party seems to be more tolerant of bad behaviour.
127: A decade ago, before things like 7/7 and 9/11.
133: Why when MPs have offices both in their constituency, and at Westminster do they have to work at home?
Employing family members is fine if it is your money you use not taxpayers.
Interesting response to one question by Brown was ‘his questions were prepared yesterday and things have moved on’ or something like that. Obviously a prepared line whihc didn’t bear any relevence to the question. People may accuse Cameron of not being a quick thinker, but Brown is worse.
136. Because many take work home in the evenings due to the vast amount of paperwork they have - is that so unreasonable? If the family members are doing work for the taxpayer (mainly paperwork for constituent’s queries), then there’s no reason it’s unethical. Providing the work is actually being done, of course.
135. I don’t think Sayeed was deselected. On the contrary he won his re-selection, but after further revelations he retired on “health grounds”…
We at least can insist on MP expenses being examined, with sanctions to follow if necessary. In Europe, MEPs will not permit anyone to question what they spend.But nobody seems to care.
140, Rod re Sayeed
Wikipedia said deselected. Although I read elsewhere he won at least one deselection battle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Sayeed
He was certainly gone before the next GE.
135. “It seems it is best to be a Labour MP, their party seems to be more tolerant of bad behaviour. ”
and the voters in their constituencies too!
142 correction at bottom of wikipedia page it says he decided not to contest due to ill health.
I would imagine that this could well be used in reverse,shots of the devastation in Iraq,slum conditions for our military,a review of the billions of wasted money Dome,Scottish parliament,NHS computers,E-university,N Rock etc.etc.
105 Sea Shanty Irish re Patty Murray
Is there any residual backlash between Murray and McCain following the set to over the Boeing 767 tanker leases, where McCain wanted it all cancelled as wasteful and corrupt, and Murray was Boeing’s big defender (given it was local) ?
142. Yes Wikipedians often forget to edit one paragraph in the light of facts presented in another…
145. The things about this advert is it didn’t mention government spending, it used statistics to demonstrate the effects of government policies. A tory advert lambasting labour for spending money would make them appear as the party of cutting spending, allowing labour an opening for attack. Iraq was also supported by the cons so that’s a no go.
Conditions for the military is good ones to go for, but the tories have yet to come up with their plan for reliving these conditions. I think Cameron should be going for attack + alternative, at the moment he is just attacking.
New thread - Will McCain be able to beat either of them?
142. Sayeed had the whip witdrawn for a month. Then he won reselection with 173 votes in favour to 126 against. A few weeks later he announced he would stood down.
148
There’s a huge difference between spending and wasting money.
Yes, the Cons supported Iraq on the made up evidence that was produced by this govenment,Labour supported ERM entry until it went wrong.
For political ads, I remember the Euro Election of 2004, and the attack ads on Michael Howard with Simply Red’s “If you don’t know me by now” playing in the background.
It was the same footage the embeded video, but with close ups of Michael Howard’s face.
New Labour must be big fans of Mick Hucknall.
The only way Labour will win a fourth term of office is if they change the elegibility rules. Remove expats from electoral register and extend EU citizens voting rights to include general elections (same rights as Irish/Cypriot nationals), it might just work for them.
1997 Labour lied and got a landslide, with boundaries heavily rigged in their favour
2001 Labour lied and got a landslide (courtesy of electoral pact with Lib Dems) and rigged boundaries.
2005 Labour lied and crept back (courtesy of postal voting fraud and the Useful Kind Of Idiot Party), and rigged boundaries, and some tactical voting.
2010 Labour will lie, have an electoral pact with Lib Dems, use postal voting fraud, have rigged boundaries, plus help from the Useful Idiots - but will finally lose.
They never once commanded a real majority of voters in any election.
Yeah this’ll work again. But for the Tories - not for Labour.