Does Obama need a longer race?
January 31st, 2008
How will the GOP’s likely choice affect the Democratic race?
With the Republican looking set to select John McCain as their nominee for November’s election there will be increasing focus on the Obama-Clinton battle? Will we get a clear picture after next Tuesday’s mass of primaries and caucuses or could this be spun out over many months?
David Broder of the Washington Post looks at the dynamics this morning and suggests that the longer the Democrats take to decide the better the prospects for the Black senator from Illinois. His reasoning is that Obama’s best hope lies in “more elected Democratic officials and candidates coming to view him as the better bet to defeat McCain in November”.
He says that the race remains hard to handicap “…because Clinton already has demonstrated her resilience by fighting uphill battles to prevail in New Hampshire and Nevada and because she retains formidable alliances and organizational strengths.. But the last two weeks have seen a remarkable shift of establishment opinion against her and against the prospect of placing the party’s 2008 chances in the hands of her husband, Bill Clinton. The prominence of his role in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the mean-spiritedness of his attacks on Obama, stunned many Democrats. Clinton’s behaviour underlined the warning raised in this column before Iowa, by a prominent veteran of the Clinton administration, that the prospect of two presidents both named Clinton sharing a single White House would be a huge problem for the Democrats in November if she is the nominee.”
In an ABC interview last night Hillary acknowledged the danger of her husband to her campaign. When asked if she could “control Bill” Hillary replied: “Oh, of course. You know there’s only one president at a time”.
In the nomination betting the markets have moved a notch back to Hillary following Florida and the John Edwards decision. The former First Lady is now at 1/2 with Obama at 1.9/1.
Mike Smithson
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Good article Mike. I think this is the one big hope for Obama backers and fans. The picture is much clearer now. It’s very likely to be McCain for the GOP and the Democrats now have a straight choice for their nominee. Is Hillary still as polarising as she once was and if so will the Democrats allow this to influence their choice? Roll on Tuesday!
Let no one accuse you of bias in your choice of photos, Mike.
Obama: young, handsome, eager, intelligent, staring hopefully towards the sunlit plands of a better future.
Hillary: showing her age, downcast, wistful, weary, red eyed after a good sob about Monica, and full of typically narcissistic boomer melancholy.
Seems fair to me.
Unfortunately I agree with the thesis. Hillary has too much of a headstart in the crucial states for Obama to catch up. If only Super Tuesday was a month away, he could do it. But by next week? Turn around lots of huge states like California?
Nah.
However the co-presidency theme is a nightmare for the Clintons. McCain has a very serious chance of beating her in November.
Sean,
You forget, the Dem delegates are elected by a bizarre form of hybrid PR. Obama left Nevada with more delegates than Clinton despite “losing”. He may well leave California, etc with only a few less delegates, while performing well in terms of “number of states” (albeit smaller ones). If he can survive Super-Amazing-Duper-Tuesday, then he has a whole host of States after which he should win.
This is why the offs are 66/33 to Hilary, because Obama is still in with a good chance. Still think Hillary’s more likely to win it (mores the pity), but it’s closer than you think.
Cheers,
Robert
ps, I bought my wife your book for Christmas, and she still hasn’t forgiven me
My concern would be that Hillary is a much easier target than Obama for the Republicans. She has considerable political baggage, not just in terms of her husband’s record, whereas Obama will give the opposition less to get their teeth into.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
Hillary is 1/2 to beat Obama, and 9/4 to be president. That means she’s 1/2 to beat McCain, if she becomes the Dem candidate.
Is she really 1/2 for both these consecutive wins?
Our host always warned that ‘nobody became rich betting against TB’. Probably also true about betting against Bill, but surely not in the case of madam Clinton?
Isn’t Hillary a big lay at 9/4 to be the next POTUS?
6 “Isn’t Hillary a big lay at 9/4 to be the next POTUS?”
Yes.
Next question?
I’ve commented before that the Obama team get their vote out: his average share of the polls in Iowa, NH, Nevada and SC was 44% (range 38-55%).
Clinton has been significantly less successful and consistent in this respect: average 36.5%, range 27-51%.
The states that have voted so far vary greatly in their ethnic make-up, so it’s tempting to apply the outcomes to next Tuesday and predict that Obama’s total vote will exceed Clinton’s by nearly 8 percentage points.
OK, this statement is simplistic (Edwards effect?), but looking at recent results, it would be surprising if Obama’s total vote on Tuesday proved to be less than Clinton’s. What this would mean in terms of delegates I have no idea.
6/7. Where is she 9/4 for POTUS? Best I can see is 6/4 with Betfair.
Good article, Mike, and it led me to have another good long look at my betting position and the current odds.
You are absolutely right about the length of the campaign. If SupercalifragilisticexpialidotiousTuesday were a month away, Obama’s chances would be much better. All the same, Rob is right and SeanT is overly negative about big O’s chances. There’s still a chance, and a real one, that he may steal the prize from her. Betfair’s odds of about 1.5 Hillary are even a little on the cramped side, but she’s definitely favorite. To put a figure on it, I would be a layer at 1.5, and a backer at 1.7 or above. And that’s right now. There’s still time for the polls and the markets to change.
The stand out value is with McCain’s price for the Presidency. If you grant that he’s just about there with the nomination then you just have to look at the match up to get some idea of what his odds should be. He is in fact marginally ahead of both C & O. So he should be about evens. OK, you can build in a bit of margin for error and say 5/4. He’s actually 2/1 with Betfair; possibly bigger elsewhere. That’s stonking good value. As indeed is the lay of Hillary at 9/4 for much the same reasons and as pointed ou by David Kendrick (6).
For a while now, Double Carpet, myself and others have been going on about the value in backing the Republicans to win in November at round about 2.75. There now seems to be a PB consensus that this is the case and so much so that the price has contracted a few pips. I still think it’s value but less so than the McCain bet which is effectively 3.00 for much the same bet.
A word of warning though. I foresee definitional problems yet again with Betfair. The Rules state:
“Which Political Party will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?”
We’re not talking the Presidency here, but the Parties. Which House though? And what do Independents count as? Let’s hope it’s not close.
If the Yanks do elect Clinton as President, they’re an even bigger bunch of dumbasses (to use their parlance) than I ever thought!
If Obama really does have little chance, then it looks like Old Man McCain is the man I’ve got to hold my nose and keep my fingers crossed for, even if I do have an aversion to Republicans generally.
71 though. Maybe there is still hope for Ken Clarke?
3 The delegates may be proportional but winning still matters. If Clinton wins California, New York, New Jersey and several of the smaller states she’ll have the momentum. She’ll look like a winner, and get a lot of positive media attention.
Think back to New Hampshire, the headline was ‘Clinton Won’, not ‘Clinton Won But Obama Still Got Some Delegates’. With the Republicans coalescing around McCain there will be pressure for the Democrats to do the same.
If Clinton wins the lions share of states next week, Obama will look a sore loser hanging around too long and damaging the party
Good article and I think ultimately Clinton will emerge. I think the Democrats are determined to win this time and that makes it slightly more likely that the top two would bury there differences and team up. I think Clinton would be mad not to ask, and she is not mad despite what people think!
I am not convinced that Obama would do that well against McCain. Experience vs youth. However, McCain is different enough from Bush and the Republican establishment to offer that “change” that Obama is campaigning on. Add to that his character due to his length on office and wartime experience are clean he will be a tough oppo for Obama. Clinton on the other hand can play the experience card, can say its a “Bill and Hillary” ticket and she can also fight dirty. I would be surprised if the Dems take the leap of faith and go for the untested Obama. I like Obama much more than Hillary tho, which makes it such a shame.
6. A double with both at 1/2 is 5/4, not 9/4. If Hillary were 9/4 for the presidency, she’d be just about value (1/2 for the nomination * 6/5 for the presidency). At 5/4 she’s not.
11,I and many others was hrrified that GBW was re-elected ove John Kerry in 2004;I recall a poll in the GB showing 70% preference for John Kerry
14 Despite many people’s reservations,I would rather ANY Democratic victory than the GOP-surely there will be a ‘Good old days of the Clintons at the Oval Office factor’
And many seem to forget just how tenous the GOP’s hold on the presidency was in 2004-most marginal GOP states in 2004
GOP margin %
Iowa 7 ECVs 0.67
New Mexico 5 ECVs 0.79
Ohio 20 ECVs 2.11
Nevada 5 ECVs 2.59
Colorado 9 ECVs 4.67
Florida 27 ECVs 5.01
Missouri 6 ECVs 7.18
Virginia 13 ECVs 8.19
Arkansas 6 ECVs 9.75
If all/most of these states went Democratic (and Ohio alone would suffice),then,on a 5-6% national vote lead,Hillary would comfirtable beta Mc Cain-at least the GOP would have ‘lost well’,and be well placed for a 2012 comeback-I=when the time approaches,I will study state-by-atate guides,and aim to profit handsomely on this November’s US outcome
It’s odd how Hillary seems to be despised by so many posters on this site. If it was anything to do with policy why wouldn’t any of the other candidates get mentioned? Hucherbee and Romney have some seriously wacky ideas.
My best guess is that it’s just old fashioned misogyny which has on this site in the past been directed at most female politicians. Remember all the posts about Ruth Kelly’s dress sense and voice?
The normal mysoginistic avenues are limited with Hillary because her dress sense is pretty faultless and people are unfamiliar with her voice/accent.
So it just bursts out in all directions like this from SeanT above. “… showing her age, downcast, wistful, weary, red eyed after a good sob about Monica”
17,Don’t forget the right-wing bias of this site-I for one would be ELATED were Hillary Clinton elected-I’ve said it before and will state again;that Bill’s first victory in 1992 was one of the most beautiful,hopeful moments of my life;as I recall BBC2 showed the entire evening,from 12.00 am on;I watched until Bill Clinton’s acceptance speech at Little Rock,Arkansas,approx 4.00 am GMT,at which point I was crying for joy
Still no word on Bloomberg?
My naive impression is that, now the Republicans look to have chosen a relative moderate in McCain the window of opportunity for him to run as an independent candidate has narrowed. Yet, with no sitting President or vice-President in the race it still remains good conditions for an independent tilt.
If Romney doesn’t get the Republican nomination, then it will be senator vs senator, and I remember that in 2004 there were many who pointed out that senators have a bad record in Presidential elections… Bloomberg to win in November??
17. I’m a woman and I don’t like Hillary - I always have at the back of my mind that quote about how everyone close to the Clintons either ends up dead or in jail.
Before I’m accused on being a blue harpie, I do think the Conway business has been damaging for the Conservatives. I’m blogging here because I’m too angry to respond to Iain Dale’s defence on his site of his old mate Conway.
Please God one of them wins all the primaries by 90% on ‘Super Tuesday’ and we can be done with it.
17 - I don’t think it’s misogyny. It’s not really, I think, about policy (although, as you say, she’s hardly sounder than Romney or Huckabee). It’s more the sort of deeply unpleasant, Lady Macbeth persona she seems to convey to so many people. That’s why the adverse comments are so personal - it *is* a personal reaction. The nuts on the right just don’t leave as deep an impression, and are more easily (for now) shrugged off.
18 - I agree I was marginally too young to be up all night in 1992 and am temeperamentally disposed to the right, however I would enjoy a Hillary victory as she is clearly the best candidate in the field. I wonder though that if she wins Joe Klein can be persuaded to do a follow up to Primary Colors or just do a straight to film version.
O/T
Interesting article for Northern Rock watchers here
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2008/01/john-moir-the-b.html
Crunch time approaches for bidders..
re 21. Hope not Jon. With no imminent UK elections all our threads will be reduced to the reds and blues being nasty to each other and uniting only to be even more nasty to the yellows
18. Patrick. In my original post I used “Right-Wing” three times but reading through I removed them all because it didn’t need to be said! I also think she’d make the most interesting president of all the candidates though I wouldn’t be unhappy for Obama to win.
I think that’s cheap Roger. I loathe the way the Clintons have played the race card. It is beneath contempt and nobody of a progressive disposition can condone that sort of campaigning.
I can’t stand the Clinton’s because of the way they’ve resorted to cheap and dirty tactics to beat Obama, that plus Bill’s various affairs and lies during his tenure. I would prefer Obama to become president, and I’m sure he’ll get on well with Cameron when he becomes PM
25: that’s a bit rich coming from “a yellow” isn’t it! That’s all the LDs do, gang up on the reds and blues and be nasty to both of them (but slightly less nasty to their friends in red)?
20 The Conway saga has been spectacularly and surprisingly damaging for the Tories. The sight of well quaffed, young snouts in the trough is a horrible, horrible image that Cameron is not in a great position to shake off. Worse than Hain.
28
Of course its disgraceful for a, ‘Head of state’ to tell lies and have affairs, how unlike our own next head of state, ‘Charles Wales’ At least Hillary didn’t end up dead!
30. Damaging for the tories how exactly? As far as I can tell it is a bad scandal, but overall for MP’s rather than just the tories. Especially as now both tory and lib dem MP’s will be taking part in a poll to see how many employ relatives, whereas Labour have banned their MP’s from doing so.
31. And?
17. I love the way all right wingers are mysogynists - I mean its not as if the Cons elected our only female prime minister - oh wait. How many female leaders have the labour party had ?
34. Hehehehe
15 You are absolutely right, David, and mea culpa for not doing the maths.
What I should have said in answer to David Kendrick is that Clinton is no 1/2 shot for both contests, the Nomination and the subsequent Presidential race. Therefore she should be opposed at odds of 5/4 or less to make it to the White House if you see those odds on offer. In other words, it would be plainly correct to lay at less than 5/4 in the Presidency market. She is currently 2.58, or about 8/5.
Of course, she’s no 1/2 shot to beat McCain; I should say it’s nearer evens. So, allowing that 1/2 is about right for her chances of beating Obama, her White House price should be 66% x 50% = 33%, or exactly 2/1 in conventional terms, or 3.0 in Betfair terms.
Now David’s instinct, and mine, to lay at the current Betfair price of 2.58 [8/5] looks sound.
Apologies to everybody for the earlier lazy posting.
34 - Technically one!
26. I don’t think its misogyny about the dislike of Hillary, I think its more to do with her being a bit false. she has moved from a leftie radical in her youth to a realist hawk to get elected in the 2000s.
Its also a suspicion about where her policy comes from. You get the impression she has a big chip on her shoulder and the question is whether she is motivated by malice or perceived disadvantage. Obama does not give off the same vibe whilst potentially being to the left of Hillary. I wouldn’t hate her being el presidente, but i don’t think she will be all that good, a bit like Brown but at least if she gets it she will have been elected.
33 Clinton was a fool in his private life, but many Americans must be thinking certainly after the wreckage left by Bush2, there are worse things. Clinton gave the Americans, prosperity at home, and peace, (relative) abroad.
Still when you see the lifestyle enjoyed by Conways, ‘boys’ paid for by the taxpayer, (Iain Dale’s pathetic defence against Heffer, worth watching) Clinton don’t seem so bad.
OT regarding Northern Rock: I read a reasonable number of banking stories, and there has not been a single one since Brown’s Chinese trip. Before there were rumours of Olivant being annoyed at lack of information access, and Deutsche Bank getting cold feet with Virgin but there hasn’t been a whisper since Brown came back.
Just seems a little odd, if they’re meant to be gearing up for a deal.
39. Clinton game all that, mainly by using his heavies to quash any messes he’d made in his private life. He’d say or do anything to stay in power, and this is from someone who prefers the democrats to the republicans.
32 Banned them? What is your authority for that statement?
I dislike Hillary because of the craving for power she obviously has, and the way she’ll put it above principle, even if it means putting up with an unfaithful husband or playing the race card. If that makes me a mysoginist then tough.
I think roger is right but in some cases it’s misogyny at one remove: people here are picking up caricatures from the media. Hillary is obviously pretty tough, but her Lady Macbeth image in the media is one of the convenient stereotypes that they like to hang on successful women. If they show emotion they’re pathetic, if they don’t they’re repellent automatons. These are standards that are simply not applied to male partners. The antipathy to her here and elsewhere started long before the controversy over how the Clinton campaign criticised Obama.
20 You have my sympathy, Charlotte.
No need to overreact though. Most voters tend to accept it’s the kind of thing that’s bound to happen from time to time in all Parties. Unless it is perceived as persistently and blatantly coming mainly from one Party, it’s unlikely to affect voting patterns in the long run.
41
If you feel that Clinton was unfit to be ‘head of state’ because he was an adulterer, then surely our next head of state is unfit for that office. After all, Clinton wasn’t head of the ‘church’ as well.
…and is it up to us to decide whether Hillary was right to put up with Bill’s affairs, and what her motivations were? If Mrs T had had an affair, would we have debated whether Bill should stay with her or not, and condemn him if he made the ‘wrong’ choice?
40.
40. So there could be no further offers on the table on February 4. Will the Government then finally bite the bullet and nationalise.
30. Jonathon. it’s interesting how it’s turned from a minor drama into something more interesting! Could anyone looking at the footage of the two young Conways resist a quick flashback?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/02/14/noxford14.xml
Roger, blah blah blah. As Flashman notes above, it was the right that elected Thatcher. MRS Thatcher.
My apparent aversion to people with ovaries didn’t stop me worshipping Maggie, and rejoicing in the way she dumped all over the left for a decade.
Heh.
Likewise, in Germany I’d have voted for Merkel (tho she is no Maggie). And I quite liked Benazir - she was brave, albeit flawed.
I’ve also got a soft spot for Joan of Arc and would have read Boudicca’s manifesto with great enthusiasm (First policy: castrate all Roman priests by the Thames)
So it ain’t misogyny.
Like the person of reasonable but moderate intelligence that you are, you are confusing rhetoric with prejudice. i.e. If Hillary was a bloke I would happily accuse her of blokeish faults: autism, trainspotteriness, being a pee-wee Herman lookalike, geekiness, etc.
But she is a woman, with the faults of an unlikeable woman, so I am happy to spell those faults out, to annoy her supporters.
Do try and keep up.
47. Bill was even with Mrs T?
30. Bad for the Conservatives, yes, but it does rather spoil the Labour stereotype of the Tories as nasty, homophobic throwbacks.
17 - Hardly the case… if so it’s interesting to note that Obama won amongst women in Iowa.
Folks have an antipathy toward Clinton because she’s Hillary Clinton, one of the most divisive figures in modern political history, we forget that she easily elicits the same animosity on the right that Gingrich and more recently Bush have on the Left.
The sad fact is there is a wealth of strong female candidates on the Democratic side who have none of Clinton’s weaknesses, Senators like Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill and Mary Landrieu and Governors such as Kathleen Sebelius… indeed all of them represent states that voted for Bush in ’00 and ’04 (Sebelius is Governor of Kansas! And a very popular Governor at that).
To tar anyone who opposes Clinton as a misogynist is frankly immature in the extreme (perhaps everyone who opposes Obama is a racist?… well Roger are you a Racist?).. most oppose Clinton because of her divisive and confrontational character and track record as Senator and First Lady while in contrast most are favourably disposed to Obama because (in complete contrast to Clinton) he has a strong bipartisan record and appeal far beyond the traditional Democrat collation.
As to the Feb 5 states some very interesting polling starting to come out that reflects the impact of the SC win and the Kennedy endorsement… the national race seems to be tightening and polls in CA, CT and NY(!) are showing considerable gains for Obama… having said that the role of folks who voted early through absentee ballots (when Clinton was much further ahead) could distort these trends in the actual primary results.
42. It was on the news this morning, tory and lib dem whips have been instricted to tell their MP’s to co-operate, labour whips have been instructed to tell their’s not to, and the speaker has banned any debate in the house about it.
46. Not his affairs, the way he dealt with them, by either blatently lying, or hammering them in the courts, or with whispering campaigns. And I don’t care why Hilary stayed with him, I just dislike her for throwing mud at Obama and playing the race card. Before that I wasn’t swayed towards either side.
54
If that is true, it is very wrong of the Labour Party to take that attitude.
It also contradicts what Jack Straw has just said.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1303347,00.html
I’ve got to say I’m impressed with the sheer will to power of the republican party. John McCain is, if you believe the right wing american blogs, an old, grumpy traitor to the republican cause who has stabbed his colleagues in the back at every concievable opportuntity if it maked him look good. He’s also unsound on taxes, immigration, and reform of the social security system.
Yet they’re still going to choose him as their next Presidential nominee. That’s keeping their eyes on the prize.
56. I’m pretty sure thats what was said, it may have been on newsnight last night though. It surprised me, I would have thought the tories and lib dems would have kept quiet on the subject.
55 - Clinton is perfectly entitled to throw mud it is politically acceptable. I don’t know how much of the race row was Clinton playing the race card and how much was simulated outrage from Obama.
55
And ‘Charles Wales’ never lied did he, as the future head of the Church you’d think the ten commandments might mean something to him.
You know, thou shalt not commit adultery, bear false witness, all that stuff, still when he’s rotting in hell, he’ll be able to discuss it all with, the Borgias. These heads of churches hey, you can’t trust ‘em.
59. Politically acceptable is a term that covers many things I certainly don’t like.
60. Why do you keep bringing up him for?
61 - Politics is rough, but it is less rough than times gone by when judicious annihilation of your opponents was considered accetable!
53. She is also a massive, massive narcissist. Why did she nearly cry in the cakeshop? Because someone asked her:
“How do you stay so upbeat and so wonderful?”
A few days later, apropos her tears, she was asked by CNN what REALLY moved her in politics: she said - and I quote - “when a man drives all the way across New York state to tell me what an amazing thing I did in passing that child welfare bill, when someone rushes over and thanks me for my work on poverty”
Me. Me me me me me me me me me ME. She is the Me Generation encapsulated. The people that did nothing. The generation that just cared if they looked good. Tony Blair in his white shirt in Kosovo.
When the history books of the last century are finally written, the baby boomer generation, the 60s kids, the lefty people born from about 1945-1962*, will go down as the most ghastly bunch of gits in the history of kippers.
*I was born in 1963, clearly.
54, 56 Sorry, I am a bit pressed for time today, so I cannot find the link, but have a look at page 7 of today’s white Times – it lists all the MPs who employ members of their families. The list includes about 20 Labour MPs, and a handful more who have arranged passes for members of their family for some unpaid reason or another.
61
I’m doing a direct comparison, You believe that Clinton was unfit to hole office, because of his sexual mis-behaviour. I could point out that the American people knew of Clinton’s behaviour, (it was hardly a secret) and they elected him twice despite.
Our next head of state, is also an adulterer, I have no say in whether he takes up that position. If you condemn Clinton, you must also condemn Charles Wales.
64. Hmm, I can’t find a link to my story either, I could sworn it was on newsnight. I’ll keep looking.
Any particular reason why Coldstone is boring cveryone with irrclevant anti-Monarchy comments?
43. “I dislike Hillary because of the craving for power she obviously has, and the way she’ll put it above principle, even if it means putting up with an unfaithful husband”
I would say that is mysoginist Woody. All politicians who get to the top could be said to have ‘a craving for power’ though in a man I doubt you’d describe it like that. It would probably be called ‘ambition’. As for putting up with an unfaithful husband-did you think the same of Sarkosi? how can you possibly know her motivation for staying married?
65. I believe his lying about it and willingness to use any underhand tactics to try and keep his office were bad things, yes. As for prince charles, yes, he shouldn’t have cheated, and perhaps shouldn’t be king.
67
Yes its raining, I’m pissed off, I live near Poundbury, its an abortion, and I’m also a person who believes that when Queenie goes to the big throne room in the sky, we should have a choice as to who replaces her.
So there!!!
67. I haven’t got a clue, I think he thinks that I’m a pro-monarchist because of my tory leanings, and he’ll therefore catch me out by comparing Clintons misdemeanors with his.
57. Don’t often agree with you, Hopi Sen - but that’s a very good point. The Republicans have chosen their most papabile candidate against their primal instincts.
A stark contrast with the Tories circa 1997-2005.
McCain is, quite obviously, the one candidate feared by the Democrats. Giuliani was too abrasive and storied. Romney had majorly bad hair and was a Mormon. Huckabee thinks dinosaurs are a conspiracy.
McCain is an appalling public speaker, but Hillary ain’t that good either. Unlike Hillary he is a genuine figure of honesty and integrity, he stuck to his guns on Iraq when she was all over the place (even if they were the wrong guns). He is likeable in a craggy way - he is intelligent, tough, and determined.
McCain will give her a real run for her money. And he will be a startling contrast with the idea of Bill Clinton once again groping the secretary in the West Wing.
60 LOL! I’m no fan of Charles, but I wouldn’t put him in the same league as Rodrigo and Cesare Borgia. One could hardly imagine either of those two expressing a wish to be reincarnated as a tampon.
I have no personal antipathy towards Hillary Clinton. I simply pick up the fact that many Americans are antipathetic towards her.
50. That photo is just one of the reasons the Tories won’t win the election.
Labour should make it its election poster. “And the answer is…”
“Conway.. should step down immediately and leave the country..” and that’s from one of his Tory friends!
http://www.newstatesman.com/200801310014
Boris in the firing line
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/topstories/2008/01/31/david-cameron-left-reeling-over-boris-johnson-s-250k-donation-shame-89520-20303862/
65. ‘I have no say in whether he takes up that position.’
Even if we had an elected Head of State that would be the case too, as lunatics are I believe still barred from the franchise.
74. Odd how only the mirror (that un-bias paper) seems to be covering this story. Kinda like that non-story about a couple of constintuants he invited to a party, then apparently snubbed. Nobody else ran it, no-one else at the party had witnessed it, and the day after the mirror had seemingly forgotten about it.
74. Ah Rod, all that complex model building is just a facade, isn’t it? Basically you are just a Roger-style chip on the shoulder merchant.
The Mirror waffle about Boris is a contender for non-story of the year. Certainly the best so far.
What will play and play on the blogs is Boris’s point of order yesterday pointing out the blatant black propaganda from Brown. So silly as there are print and other records giving Boris’s true views.
Clumsy Brown.
O/T - Budget day will be 12th March.
74 I beg to differ. Conway was a big story for 36 hours, but not now. Removing the party whip killed it as a big story.
36. Spot on PtP. My analysis exactly. She should be 2/1+ for the Presidency currently and is certainly around Evens against McCain.
80 - I agree, and the Daily Mails desperate attempt to keep it going with horrific undertones of crass homophobia is pretty desperate stuff.
I am sorry it is raining, Coldstone. Blaming the Royal Family seems an odd response but, hey, it takes all sorts.
74. “Boris’s donation shame” - I wonder how the Mirror’s intrepid hacks dug out this secretive list of undeclared Boris donors? Oh, yes, it was on the Electoral Commission website! Jolly good digging, chaps.
As for the Bullingdon, if Labour follow your advice they’ll sink faster than Derek Conway’s credibility. No-one cares what Cameron allegedly did, or didn’t do, when he was 20. Really. They don’t care what Brown did when he was 20 either.
They will think Labour are mad if they put up posters saying “Vote for Gordon or the Toff gets it”.
36: PtP I was just about to follow your maths when Nick P’s “what if Mrs T had had an affair” comment threw me somewhat. Common sense says its good value to lay H given McCain lead in key states.
84 - Although what Cameron was doing at 20 was marginally more normal than what Brown was doing at a similar age!
83
Well as they are God’s annointed, they must be able to ask him/her/it to switch it off, surely. So its obviously their bloody fault, after all it didn’t rain on Coron…….Oh! actually it did it pissed down. Obviously the wrong person was crowned, whatever happened to that, ‘Sword-in-the-stone’ stuff, seems a much better idea to me.
74: The Mirror running a non story to smear Boris shocker.
That story, and those of on the pay roll columnists in the Guardian, show just how desperate Ken’s supporters are getting which is rather odd considering that they tell us how useless Boris is. Their private polling must be interesting.
I understand that their private polling indicates that Livingstone is identified much more closely with Labour than was the case in 2004.
79 — budget on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival, with the Queen Mother Champion Chase. The pb syndicate will be chasing the £10k Cheltenham prize in the 10-to-Follow.
Nobody’s going to touch Boris Johnson with scandalmongering. People think he’s a charming old scallyway anyway. This is what’s going to do for him unless reinvents himself over the next three months:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23434887-details/My+dilemma%3A+Ken+is+past+it+and+Boris+hasn%27t+a+clue/article.do
80. I’m not sure. I’m really angry about the Conway story. I’ve just watched the Iain Dale and Heffer video on Dale’s site and Dale said actually one of Conway’s sons (I’m not sure if it was Tweedldumb or Tweedledumber) did do SOME work for K10 so it was just an administrative error. SOME work - big deal. I was the governor of a special needs school and most of our learning assistants earnt less than £10 a year for doing a full days work (they weren’t paid for holiday time) helping severely disabled children with complex needs. A lot of them spent their spare time sewing and knitting costumes for the school plays, fund raising, etc.
Is our political class so out of touch with reality that it sees as pocket money what to many people is a salary? I’m thinking about holding a “F*** off. I’m Angry” Party.
92 Paradoxically, I think it is Conservative supporters who are angriest of all, but they’ll approve of the removal of the whip.
It is reasonable for Iain Dale not to kick a friend when he’s down, but he’d do better to just keep silent, rather than trying to defend the indefensible.
92: Mrs Dale diary is crap these days. It nearly getting to the stage where there is more intelligent analysis on ConHome. A sad state of affairs indeed.
so let me get this straight. According to Nick and Roger, if i don’t support Hillary I’m a misogynist?
is that what it’s come to? frankly pathetic. What other ists are there that i can be accused of. get off your high horses
Anyone else think is the funniest article in the Telegraph for some considerable time -absolutely excellent ;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/portal/main.jhtml;jsessionid=BUUAP52DH3HJVQFIQMGSFGGAVCBQWIV0?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/portal/2008/01/31/ftconway131.xml
Charlotte A lot of people are angry and that has got a reasonable result in that Conway is not standing again. He will suffer for some time but whether that is enough depends upon individual taste. Personally I think he should be prosecuted for malfeasance or something similar as his behaviour has been gross if not technically fraudulent.
The good news is that it is another dinosaur which will no longer be around to try and drag the parliamentary Tory party back to the swamp.
Hopefully the younger MPs the Tories might gain at the next election will revitalise and refresh the PP.
95. And if you don’t support Obama you are a racist - so you should support them both equally - lol.
98. And if you don’t support McCain you are ageist
92 - The problem being the myth that we are in an evolved democracy when what we are actually saddled with is a system of commerical interest combined with landed interest that has had elections bolted on as an adjunct.
98: Yeah and they dont support big mac because they are ageist
99: great minds think alike
96 Just read the torygraph article-Conway makes Andrew Rosindell seem cultured and intelligent by comparison which is soaying something:lol::lol:
O/T
More support for the unwanted Rock theory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/01/rock_no_new_bidders.html#commentsanchor
97: And it leaves open the question, why hasn’t Gordon done the same?
O/T
The Beeb are waking up to Gordon not answering questions..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2008/01/sidestepping_the_question.html
I rather liked this line, “No self-effacing modern Toryism here: Henry Conway has thrown “F*** Off, I’m Rich” parties and dresses as a New Romantic, which leaves him looking like an indeterminate love child of Simon Le Bon and Gillian Taylforth.”
107. I think the Conservative Party is well rid of Mr Conway.
That’s a great article in the Telegraph - thanks for bringing it to my attention.
92. Bravo! Great post Charlotte!
If anyone still wants to know why people don’t like Hillary from the Clinton Family Re-election Corporation, just substitute her name for Conway and you’re getting a way there…
110. Perhaps Henry can hold a “B**ger it, I’m not so rich now” Party.
111 - Not remotely comparable.
113 - what I mean is, that kind of post-Vietnam, pre-Cameron/Obama (for lack of a better expression) politician, who aren’t old enough to have picked up the “public service for public service good” yet are too old to do the more modern approach IYSWIM.
Put it this way, if Clinton was caught out doing what Conway has allegedly done, you wouldn’t be surprised.
114. Conway’s alleged offences are rather tame compared to some of the allegations levelled at the Clintons over the years.
90 Honestly, if ever any evidence was needed that the guy’s a pillock….
re 115 I find that hard to swallow
115 - I’m referring to the actual *style* of politician that Clinton and Conway are
Conway is small fry compared to Clinton Inc, in fact very small fry. But it’s something that Witan at 97 said that made me think it.
117 - So did the interns
68. Looks like I’m on a par with Sid the Sexist in Rogerworld then
117. I couldn’t stomach it either
:)
Reading McCain’s comments on his endorsement by Giuliani, he goes a bit further than he strictly had to.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7218879.stm
Is Giuliani a likely candidate for the VP nomination then? As Mike points out, the VP is a bit more important when the president is in his 70s.
Might Giuliani might have haggled for the VP nomination as the price of his public endorsement?
122 - Might not play well and wouldn’t be a terribly balanced ticket.
We can look at this on a couple fo levels:
1. Hillary is not exactly massively behind McCain in the head to heads so its not a killer as yet on the electability question. McCain also gives as good as he gets against Obama in head to heads and in fact beats him on occasion.
2. The concept of the change candidate is overrated. McCain is change, If you look at McCain’s support profile he is good amongst independnts and the GOP types who believe Bush has been a bit of a mess of which there are plenty. If the GOP continues to back the old guy they are making a clear statement just as much as the Dems putting Obama in as the nominee. We want change.
3. Poster boy as Obama seems to be for many, he has still not brought the traditional Democratic base with him, Clinton is holding it well enough and if she continues to do so he may pack up and go home. In that way he’s got a bigger problem than McCain in getting the nomination, he needs to make inroads in there and fast. If he does get the nomination at a divided convention he may have an easier time in getting it out in the real race than McCain will have with the GOP refusniks but we wait to see.
We talk about momentum, who do we think is liable to do best out of Super Tuesday on the Democrat side?
O/T - Wonder if the deadline will get extended as a result of this:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7219718.stm
I say it again, if McCain gets the nomination…Huckabee should not be ruled out though there probably are better options.
Has a BBC journalist been filing a late tax return this morning?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7219718.stm
124 - Check out the latest Rasmussen polls for how Obama seems to be now eating into the dem base. Massachusetts now 6 points behind having been over thirty percent behind within the last fortnight. California only three points behind, at last down to single figuresl Level in Connecticut having been over ten percent behind.
All this points to a great deal of momentum with Obama, this could well have been timed just right and, if you want to take these polls as being indicative (and three different states showing the same thing looks to be more than coincidence), then there is great value in betting on Obama as of today.
125 I bloody well hope so!!!!! I was up until 12:30 this morning trying to do my bit for HM Customs & Revenue and the sodding site collapsed on me six times! And it seemed to incorporate a Randon Mumber Generator which re-calculated my salary and increased it by nearly 50%!
Back to ballpoint next year, that’s for sure.
Anybody know what the latest position is with Northern Rock? Isn’t Monday February 4th supposed to be the day when a decision taken about NR one way or the other?
Why have Betfair suspended the next USA president market?
130. 4th Feb is deadline for bids to be submitted. Obviously followed by a 6 week dither period.
132. Thanks. Anybody know if there IS going to be a bid submitted on Monday?
132 - At which point another deadline is set!
134. HM Govt are definitely in the running to be the new owners
Roger (previously) - well I’m someone who has railed against both Clinton and Romney and for one good reason, they both use the worst type of negative campaigning. You can judge people best, not by what they say they will do, but by how they go about trying to win. Both of these have shown themselves to be the sort of politician I despise.
Obama is attempting something different, so is McCain. I might not agree with McCain as much as Clinton politically but (in the absence of a third party candidate like Bloomberg) I’d be more likely to vote for him. The description of how he coped with his campaign imploding is all I needed to know - “After McCain’s campaign collapsed in July, he returned to New Hampshire lugging his own suitcase and vowing to “live off the land”. Carolyn Patton, 43, remembered how lonely but determined he looked. “Everybody said he was finished, but he said, ‘I’m still fighting’.” ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3137491.ece
When Clinton had her dip after Iowa what did she do? Calls on her husband to be her enforcer and goes relentlessly negative with a dollop of self pity on the side. That’s not the sort of person I want to have as a leader.
As for Huckabee, he scares the hell out of me, he sounds fine but his beliefs are crazy.
What about the Democrat VP nominee? The most obvious people are the other candidates. Say Clinton won and hadn’t pissed off Obama too much - it’d be a dream ticket to have both wouldn’t it? Can’t see Clinton taking the number two spot. Edwards might be useful to get out the vote.
By the way, when does the VP nomination happen? And would anyone else fancy betting on it?
133, there could be, but regardless of guarantees given the buyer would need to raise billions to buy the bonds. Given the tightening of credit, that may be unlikely to occur.
There will be no options others than nationalisation and administration on the 4th, should no buyer come forward. I imagine they’ll nationalise it, and get some rather memorable headlines.
132. Perhaps the PB.Com Tote Ten To Follow Consortium could put together a bid?
138 - Well they aren’t going to make 6000 of their core vote redundant at the start of economic problems are they!
137. I suspect the Dems could be looking at a red state Democrat. Webb would be a hoot but bit too early for him maybe.
The GOP have less issues on that score since McCain himself, assuming he gets it, has shown clear ability to do ok in blue states.
138. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. What makes me wonder whether there won’t be a bid, is that we’re not really hearing anything about it in the media. I would have thought, if it was likely a bid was going to be submitted on Monday, the government would be spinning it in the papers by now?
140. So cynical.
141 - Warner is mentioned often for the Dems.
The “race card” was manipulated by Obama and his supporters when they mis interpreted a honest mistake made by Hillary Clinton about MLK Jr. and this made me sick to the stomach - as a lot of black people don’t revere St. MLK - I have studied U.S. history in U.S. colleges and read a lot of material where black people thought he hogged the lime light and ignored the base who worked hard sitting at lunch counters, sitting at the front of buses etc. got beaten up, imprisoned and were the true heroes of the fight to end segregation and Jim Crow Laws - The biggest hero in America is Rosa Parkes - she was a heroine - MLK did some good for America but like I said a lot of blacks hate him taking the limelight - and to manipulate HRC’s comments is irresponsible at the least.
I disliked Obama when he snubbed Hillary Clinton on the likable question in the NH debates, I disliked him when he snubbed Hillary when he turned his back on her during the State of the Union address .. it shows his character to the full…
However even through his faults I will vote for him come November if he wins the Democratic nomination - a lot of Hillary haters on here are doing more to polarize the election than people who have reservations about Obama.
I hate that anyone who does not think Obama is the Messiah is racist - that does not wash - people base there vote on more objective criteria than the color of someone’s skin … that never enters the equation in our household - we vote for people for who they are and what they stand for and not what they look like
last paragraph.
I hate anyone who thinks that anyone who does not think Obama is the Messiah is racist - is this better English -
On NR, its all down to hard money.
I would expect some bidder to still be standing. If Virgin is one such bidder..I wonder who HM Govt will choose?
Friendly Mr Branson or those strange and maybe even nasty Investment type people…
Any bets going on the next honourable member to be suspended for expenses fiddling?
There is one I am actively researching at the moment
140, well, going by exposure, we’d be better off if we’d sacked them all and given them a million pounds each.
The government will not be thanked if they end up losing several billion pounds, and if they lose tens of billions there will be quite the crisis, particularly as it comes as the economy is slowing.
144 Isn’t this hostility between the two candidates (and their supporters) a problem from the Dems’ point of view? There must be a risk now that whichever of them wins, a section of the other’s supporters won’t turn out.
144. of course he’s the messiah..he’s young which is apparently essential, he’s a bit maverick..if you ignore his voting record which seems pretty bland and establishment, he’s not white…also useful to some, he doesnt seem to have a bucket load of weight and substance..
What more could you ask for? He’s perfect and why Hillary is still Democrat front runner is, well its criminal and they really need to buck up their ideas
Which they might a bit if they know they are facing McCain but nothing to do with his age, his colour, his rather boring vote record, nbut because he might just do better in the particular situation that seems to be emerging.
144 - Obama snubbed her because she’d continuously cold shouldered him since he announced he would be running. The MLK stuff, well there are always people trying to put their new spin on history.
The way that her supporters have been attacking Oprah Winfrey is unconscionable for example. Similarly the way that female Obama supporters are routinely attacked for being traitors to their gender on messageboards.
Put simply, she started it. She may not have expected Obama to fight back, and it took a number of weeks for him to do so, but he is doing, and in doing so, can keep more of his integrity than Clinton has done.
144. On a substantial damaging level I doubt it for the Dems. On that score McCain maybe has the bigger problem if he gets the nomination.
Switching potential though might be interesting, particularly amongst hispanics.
The sun are also running the boris story on the cover.
If Condi were to run, i’d call her an evil corprate backed automaton.. what does that make me?
(Answer: a leftie.)
149 - I suppose this is always the risk in a competitive primary. Every attack made by the candidates will be kept in storage by the opposing party to use during the actual campaign later. But then, both parties are used to this sort of thing, and should be able to unite earlier. While the Obama/Clinton battles seem to be getting more heated than most primary battles, the underlying impulse for unity once the fight is over is still pretty strong, unlike, say, the 1968 or even the 1984 Democratic primaries.
O/T but just to put into context the hundreds of thousands wasted by Derek Conway. The DoH is currently paying the head of it’s Commercial Directorate in addition to his salary of £185k, a £100k housing allowance to rent a place in Knightsbridge, two business class return flights to the US each year, a civil service pension, a £35k relocation “package” and a bonus.
Details here
25: Don’t bite the hand that feeds you - that’s half the reason for logging in! Anyway there’s the budget, the housing crash, local elections, Labour going below 30% any time now… plenty to get our teeth into.
153. Condi of course could be a perfect running mate for McCain - the Dems will give you a black man or a woman, the GOP will give you two for the price of one.
17. In my case it’s not misogyny, it’s mostly Clintonophobia.