politicalbetting.com

…or will the Romney money machine seize victory?

And so the next US election night on Politicalbetting. This time it’s Florida, the biggest state to decide so far and the one that has seen the most fierce battles for the GOP crown.

The Democratic party does have an election but because, like Michigan a fortnight ago, the state defied the national party on the timing what’s decided by today’s voting will not count. However if it the delegate count between Obama and Clinton gets really tight you can see this one being resolved in the courts.

For Rudolph Giuliani this is the day of reckoning. His plan was to ignore the earlier contrst and focus on the big states with lots of delegates where winner takes all. If that falls down tonight his campaign is in serious trouble.

John McCain and Mitt Romney have been topping the polls though the betting today has moved towards the 71 year old from Arizona. As well as the delegates at stake tonight the results could give the winner momentum going for the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses on a week today.

A factor that needs to be taken into account is the number of absentee ballots - many people voted some time ago before McCain became the front runner. There’s been some speculation that this will help Giuliani.

GOP nomination betting is here.

Mike Smithson

Just two months before the presidential election in 1996 dick Morris, the man who went on to advise UKIP for their Euro-Election campaign in 2004, appeared on the front page of Time magazine alongside Bill Clinton who was, of course, running for a second term.

Now he has become, arguably, the fiercest critic of the couple through his blog, through press articles and TV appearances. He’s the one that gets asked to comment on his former client’s campaign style and he’s the one who has been putting the most negative interpretation on their activities.

Morris was among the first and most vocal in describing, as he saw it, the Clinton’s plan to make Obama’s skin colour into an issue and certainly this got picked up.

There’s little doubt that he has played a role in making the Clintons’ robust attacking campaigning style into a key issue

His latest piece “GOOD RIDDANCE TO THE CLINTONS’ POLITICS OF PERSONAL DESTRUCTION” pulls no punches and is in keeping with with much of his recent writing.

His great attraction is the proximity that he had to Bill and Hillary and his close knowledge about what they are like. This has given him a kind of authority which means that his ideas are being taken up by other parts of the media.

Whatever went wrong between Bill and Dick I don’t know but the consequences are certainly having an impact on the current race - and he’s continuing to post everyday.

In the UK betting the Hillary price has continued to ease while Obama’s odds have tightened.

Mike Smithson

…and the Hain affair does not seem to have hurt Labour

The first poll to be carried out after the Hain resignation, by ComRes for the Independent, is showing that the Tory lead is down three points to 8%. The figures are with changes on December - CON 38%(-3): LAB 30%(nc): LD 17%(+1).

So the trends we have seen with ICM and YouGov have continued with the pollster that has been recording the best Tory figures - the Tory share is down, the Lib Dems are up and Labour is staying about the same.

In recent weeks the Tories have found it hard getting onto the new agenda with all the focus being on the US elections, the economy or Labour’s problems with its donors. There’s hardly been a big Tory headline in weeks - excluding Derek Conway.

At these levels the Anthony Wells seat predictor indicates a post general election commons consisting CON 312: LAB 265: LD 43: OTH 30 seats - so Cameron would be thirteen short of an overall majority.

My betting: After the YouGov and ICM polls at the weekend I switched from being a buyer of Tory seats on the spread markets to being a seller at an average of 301.

Mike Smithson

How much can you trust a survey with such a small sample?

The detailed data on YouGov’s London mayoral survey is out today and there are two things to highlight - the survey took place AFTER the controversial Channel 4 Dispatches programme last Monday but the size of the sample was just about the smallest that I can recall from the firm.

In their normal national voting intention surveys YouGov generally involve about 2000 people. The figure for Saturday’s Daily Telegraph poll was 1992. In previous surveys for the London Mayoral race the figure has been about 1000. The December survey was based on 995 responses and a poll in November had a sample of 1036.

Yet only 339 people took part last week’s poll poll and as Anthony Wells on UK PollingReport points out if you exclude the “don’t knows” and “won’t votes” your are left with just 240 responders.

As can be seen above YouGov had to make some fairly major adjustments to deal with under-represented and over-represented groups. So just 25 people in the 45-54 year old age group took part and their responses had to be scaled up to fit the 50 target for that segment.

The smaller the sample, of course, the greater the margin of error.

It is estimated that about five million Londoners will be able to take part in the election on May 1st.

Let’s hope that this will not be the norm for the campaign and that future surveys will have at least 1000 people taking part. It costs more but we will be able to attach more importance to the findings.

London mayoral betting is here.

Mike Smithson

Will there be few tears shed for David Davis’s rounder-upper?

This lunchtime’s news that Tory MP Derek Conway faces a 10-day Commons suspension after the standards watchdog said he paid his son too much from parliamentary allowances. Freddie Conway, received a salary as a researcher while he was studying at Newcastle University.

The only problem was, according to the report “.. no records appear to exist of either actual work that Freddie did for his father, or of the work he was required to undertake”.

So while all the focus has been on Labour, Peter Hain and the donations issues Conway has given Labour a rod to beat the Tories with. Not good particularly at this time.

We last discussed Derek Conway during the Tory leadership battle in October 2005 when his job was to try to ensure that those MPs who had gone public in their support for David Davis stuck with their decision.

At the time I wrote: “He (Conway) built a fearsome reputation as a whip for the final three years of the 1992-1997 Tory government stopping a seepage of votes following the Maastricht treaty. Now his style of “charm” is at the disposal of David Davis and all those on the list are going to be under enormous pressure to stick by their man. Their phones are not going to stop ringing until the first ballot is over.”

At the time someone who had experienced Conway first hand called me to say how fearsome he was and suggested that all those had had gone public for Davis would stick with him. It didn’t quite work out that way but most stayed on board.

Mike Smithson

How will Kennedy’s endorsement affect the race?

The excellent US Politico site is reporting that a major battle has been going on between the Obama and Clinton camps over plans by Ted Kennedy to appear on a platform with Barack Obama today and give his blessing to the Illinois senator in the fight for the Democratic nomination.

The importance of the move can be measured by the efforts that the Clinton campaign has made to try to stop Kennedy making such a move. There have been personal pleas from the ex–president himself as well as “a flood of phone calls to Kennedy from sources ranging from union chiefs to his Massachusetts constituents.”

ABC News has been characterising this as “the clash of Dynasties - giving this a personal edge that will ensure further coverage for the second favourite as the campaign goes into its next stage.

Assessing the impact Politico notes - “The embrace provides a dramatic rocket for Obama to ride into the frantic, nationwide campaigning ahead of the spate of Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, the biggest day for nominating contests in U.S. history. Caroline Kennedy, the senator’s niece and the daughter of President John F. Kennedy, will also appear at the rally, the sources said. Democrats said the endorsement will help Obama with traditional Democratic groups where Clinton has been strong — union households, Hispanics and downscale workers.”

In the betting the Obama price has tightened a touch to 1.88/1 while Clinton has move a notch to 0.53/1. So a winning £100 bet on the President’s spouse would have produced a £45 profit last week - today that stands at £53.

Personally I find this a very difficult betting call to make. I want Obama to win but I am only too conscious of the danger of letting my own desires affect my judgement. Sporting Index now have a spread market on the election which is where some of my money is going. I think the firm is over-valuing Hillary and sell price seems the best bet about.

Judging by the published amounts being traded on Betfair almost all the activity in political markets at the moment is focussed on the US and my guess is that will continue to be the case - certainly until the aftermath of Super Tuesday.

Mike Smithson