Labour’s ICM deficit moves up to 5%
February 2nd, 2008
Has the Conway business actually helped Dave?
A new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow has the following shares with changes on the last published survey from the pollster - CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (-3): LD 21% (+1)
These numbers will certainly ease Tory jitters and deflate the bubble of expectation amongst Labour supporters that followed yesterday’s MORI poll showing the party with a one point lead. All these changes, it should be said, are within the margin of error.
Although we don’t know when the the fieldwork took place it is more than likely that it happened after the Derek Conway story broke.
All this adds weight to my ongoing theory about the Tories and the polls - the party does better when its leader is in the news even if the matter being looked at is not, on the face of it, good news for the party. Thus we a saw poll boost for Cameron in May 2007 when the grammar school row broke.
Cameron has been crowded out by so many other stories for weeks which I believe was a factor behind the trend of decline that we have seen. Thus on Northern Rock the party had nothing to say and then the Hain business dominated the headline.
On the betting front it is getting much more complicated because these vote shares would give Labour a lead in seats in a hung parliament situation.
Mike Smithson
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Mike , As the Conservative % is unchanged compared to the previous ICM poll I can’t see how you can say that it adds any weight to your Cameron in the news theory . The increase in lead is caused by a drop in the Labour figure .
Good result for the Lib Dems up to 21%.(Good compared to what they have been getting recently.)
Tories are to announce new policies to regain the initiative.
Hi - Please check out this site: http://www.whatifweallvoted.com
It would be great if you could tell your readers about it.
Cheers
Yes, ‘fraid I agree this doesn’t add much weight to any theory.
I think it just underlines that the last ICM poll was a bit out of line - sampling error on the side of Lab. Everything else suggested 7-8 point Tory lead then. Down to 5 now doesn’t seem unreasonable. So I don’t think Lab should be at bothered by this one. (Bothered, of course, about being down in the low 30s but not by this poll!)
The Tories, on the other hand, don’t seem to have started the year well. Under 40 during this winter of Labour woe surely underlines that anything about evens on a hung Parliament is pretty good value. But can that be back without locking in one’s £££?
1
Always look on the dark side of life eh Mark??
Come, come everyone knows the LD’s are finished. 21% - terrible!
re 1. Fair point but how do you explain the Labour decline when all the apparent bad news was about the Tories? Good polling news can be your party increasing or your opponents decreasing and it might be that the latter was helped by the news coverage during the week.
7, the only thing I can think of, the randomness of polling samples aside, is that people compared Cameron’s pretty swift response to Conway with Brown’s unimpressive reaction to Hain, and Harman, and Alexander.
7 Mike you cannot assume about any poll that it is absolutely correct . There are sampling/MofE errors . It is quite possible that there has been no change whatsover and the last ICM poll overstated Labour by a couple of % and this one understates it . Polls are not accurate enough to make the sort of deduction that you did . Mind you there are many more who treat each and every poll as either gospel or a rogue depending on partisanship .
Mike,
Didn’t you also have a theory at one point about Guardian ICM polls understating the Tories. If indeed that is the case then it might be more useful to compare this ICM survey to the last non-Guardian ICM (for the Sunday Telegraph) which would be Tories down 3, Labour up 1 and Lib Dems up 3.
In my view, the political climate at the moment should suggest a Conservative fall (albeit possibly temporary), and I suspect if the Guardian commissioned an ICM survey now it would have the Tories behind Labour.
“On the betting front it is getting much more complicated because these vote shares would give Labour a lead in seats in a hung parliament situation.”
Remember, Mike, in the same way that polls are just estimates of opinion, swingometer forecasts are just point estimates also. That’s why I always preface my forecast with the word “central”, meaning there is a range of results around the forecast which would not be incompatible with the prediction. How big is the range? Estimates, simulations, and reference to previous elections suggest to me that for Lab and Con an outcome +/-10 seats from the central forecast would not be surprising, and for LDs the figures are about +/-5.
What that means, in a nutshell, is for a Tory vote lead in the range 4.0% to 6.5% we really could not be certain* which party would emerge ahead in seats. (*certain meaning a gtreater than 95% chance)
As the Tories now seem to be entering this range, what I am saying to punters is to be very cautious about betting on which party will have the most seats - it really is too close to call.
The previous ICM poll was pre Hain (fieldwork 18-20th)..so in between there may have been quite a few shift
I don’t have a theory about that but it is just something that has happened for the past four months. There is no difference in the methodology between Guardian polls and the the rest.
Your overall point is sound - the Tories, even with these numbers, are doing nothing like as well as they were pre-Xmas
Boat race politics, how exciting!
Somehow i think the tories talking about crime and punishment in light of Conway, a little amusing, as is decreasing capital gains tax. Bit clever by getting DD and GO to talk about them though, makes the party look a bit more prepared for government.
Does anyone know the result of the Maine Caucus today?
Tim Buckley? Is that really you?
Peter Hain employs his 80-year-old mother
17. Do you have a link?
13. Perhaps we are just reverting to the Spring 2007 position as the boost to Labour when Brown took over, and the subsequent damage to them, when he ducked out of an election, work their way out of the system.
Rod 11. I don’t bet on outcomes but how I think the markets will change in the very short-term. The fact that is is “too close to call” is irrelevant.
I have no idea what will happen at the general election and when it happens I will aim to have closed down all my positions beforehand. Real voting could be very risky.
16. The singer who died over 40 years ago? No.
18 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=ILXYJN4JET4JPQFIQMGCFGGAVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2008/02/03/nfunds203.xml
21. Congratulations on the name, anyway.
To add to 20 I closed down most of my Obama bets and Hillary sells in the hours before New Hampshire - much the safest way. I’ll be aiming to do the same before the Super Tuesday results come out
17. It’d be funny if she was in a nursing-home…
10 There does appear to have been a slight difference recently between ICM Guardian and Sunday polls but no logical reason for it as the questions asked are exactly the same . It may just be a statistical freak .
Since the beginning of December there have now been 16 polls
Yougov average Con figure is 42.4% ( 5 polls )
All other pollsters average is 39.0% ( 11 polls )
This seems too large a difference to be just a statistical blip .
4 Martin - re betting on a Hung Parliament. I highlighted the attractive odds of 1.75/1 from Corals which are still on offer I believe, but of course you could be locking up your money for two years or even a little longer. Betfair’s current odds are 1.6/1 net of their 5% commission and you would of course be able to trade this out by laying your bet.
Although I’ve become quite keen on the likelihood of a Hung Parliament, if one were to take the contrary view, it does seem somewhat unlikely that the political tide will not shift decisively one way or the other over the next two years.
Firstly, congratulations to Wales who overcame an England team unable to convert their superiority into points - overall tho’ Six Nations remains a second rate tournament which no one really worries about.
More importantly COME ON WATFORD SUPER CHAMPIONES
Re the poll - Camo still lokking set for overall majority. Con = freedom for Britain
It’s always amusing to see people posting on how they feel a poll either is or isn’t in tune with their ‘hunch’ about what the ‘real’ position is (or should be). And taking themselves seriously in the process.
25 Funnier still if she was back in South Africa.
It’ll take a little time, for all of the churning to work its way into the publics conciousness, then the polls will start to make some sense.
Surely even the dimmest politician, must realise that employing a relative is just not on, it has to be banned.
22 Yes 80 years old and on £5,400 per annum. Mark Fisher employed his stepson for 5 years at £30k per annum while said young man was also music producer for Natalie Imbruglia. Bob Spink employs his ex-wife at £28,000 for constituency work, though she now lives on south coast.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3295384.ece
Turns out it’s all legal and she just helps out when they’re shorthanded.
Many MPs paid salaries that taxpayers would consider extremely generous. Julian Brazier said his wife Katherine worked in his Canterbury constituency office earning £33,840 a year – for two days a week.
Bill Olner, Labour MP for Nuneaton, pays his wife £6,000 a year for duties including answering the telephone at home when he is not in and taking notes at twice-monthly constituency surgeries.
Bob Spink, Conservative MP for Castle Point, employs his ex-wife Janet for £28,000 a year although she now lives in Wimborne, Dorset, 150 miles from the constituency. Spink said she worked on his “diary, ongoing campaigns and case work, bulk mailings and some databases”.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3295384.ece
Beats paying maintenance, I suppose..
“BREAD OF HEAVEN, BREAD OF HEAVEN, FEED ME ‘TIL I WANT NO MORE!”
We won. At Twickenham. I was there. I was in charge of singing for the whole North Stand. I took away some cheese. Nice cheese. And some champagne. It was beautiful. I won quite a lot of money too. I love you guys. You’re all so brilliant. I’m a little drunk now. I should sleep. What a great website. What a great day.
Nos dda, pawb. Cymru am byth.
Mike,
Does your Cameron in the news theory work if he’s surrounded by Public School Fops who associate that bit of the Tory party with everyman Dave.
Osborne Boris and Conways sons shine a torch.
35 well done enjoy it!
15 MAINE GOP TOWN CAUCUSES
Only returns I can find so far, are the Boston Globe report referenced by Marcia in last thred.
Said that with 3% of towns reporting, Romney was way ahead, Ron Paul far back in 2nd and McCain just behind him in 3rd.
But report didn’t say which towns, so hard to say what it means, except it gives Romney at bit of good news, so far anyway.
ENDORSEMENTS
LA Times endorsed Obama & McCain, first time this influential paper has endorsed any presidential candidate in over 30 years.
Seattle Mayor Greg Nickols endorsed Obama, as did the 2004 & 2008 chair of Edwards campaign in WA State. Obama’s WA state chair is US Rep. Adam Smith.
On the other hand, in WA Hillary has endorsements of both US Senators, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, former Gov. Gary Locke (first Asian American governor of US mainland state), King County Executive Ron Sims (who is African American) and US Rep. Jay Inslee.
re 35. Morus - I hope that you will have quietened down by Wednesday evening. The thought of you gloating over our drink and nosh is really too much for me to bear. If I wore a tie any more it would be a black one. These are sorry times.
35 LOL! Genuinely pleased for you, Morus. Your team deserved it.
Enjoy.
36. Drinks all round at Labour HQ earlier, it seems.
Interesting article on Politico about fact that only 3 GOP governors have endorsed Mitt Romney, despite that fact he was chair of the Republican Governors Association.
Turns out his fellow GOP governors disliked him as much if not more than his fellow GOP presidential candidates.
The reason? Appears that Romney and his staff tried to turn the RGA into the Romney for President campaign, as opposed to what it’s supposed to be: a vehicle for electing and electing Republican governors.
Chickens do come home to roost eventually.
32
Well Wimborne is bloody expensive, cracking town though, but Poole creeps ever closer!
Mike - I will be a paragon of magnanimity. Other than the facepaint of the three feathers adorning my forehead, my wearing of a daffodil-and-leek necklace, and the Treorchy Male Voice choir singing Myfanwy behind me wherever I walk, I promise you will barely even realise that I am Welsh.
Or maybe I’ll just bring the cheese and shut the hell up…
34 - The entire MP family on the payroll scandal is starting to remind me just a wee bit of the “House bank” scandal that played such a role in the 1994 US congressional election.
In that case, members were in the habit of enjoying informal but often substantial interest-free loans, by abusing unique banking arraingments established for their convenience.
Now a Tory MP has broken ranks and published all of his claims and costs, will the others follow: bet he’s popular!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3295404.ece
Will Spink be the next to have the whip removed?
44 Going to enjoy a Welsh rabbit, eh? Congratulation!
46 - Con as usual leading the way in open government……..
46. Well he’d get my support regardless of party tag now.
46 - Don’t know how many Lib Dems have been hiring their wives (or ex’s) to answer the phone, but if I was Nicky Clegg, would be inclined to stake any LD malefactors out at low tide, then get on my soap box and start denouncing the shocking internal corruption of the House of Commons from John O’Groats to Lands End.
I don’t actually think the Conway business is doing special damage to the Tories, any more than earlier issues really damaged Labour, because the public thinks we’re all scoundrels and simply takes further apparent evidence from any party with a weary sigh but no change in voting intentions.
The 5% lead looks plausible to me as the underlying position, but there are a lot of cynical, cheesed-off voters out there who are deeply sceptical and might go either way or not vote at all. Add to that the fact that people don’t expect an election soon, and you get a pretty detached picture.
46. Brazier seems to be paying his wife (pro-rata) more than he’s earning himself…
Always thought he was dim…. http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1530000/images/_1530299_brazier300.jpg
50 - John O’Groats and Lands End of course both are in LD constituencies. We just need to get all the ones in between. Roll on 2010!
There is nothing wrong employing staff who live some distance away, so long as they do the work. With e mails and other technology, all companies outsource to people working from home. Even the Labour Party has part of their HQ staff in the North East.
48
Only ‘cos a con, conned!!
There seems to be some dispute as to whether Henry Conway deserves the title ‘Queen Sloan’ does he get your vote?
51 - Newt Gingrich demonstrated his genius as a political strategist, by turning the House Bank scandal, which easily could have been dismissed as “politics as usual”, into a mighty club for beating the arrogant congressional Democrats on their fool heads.
55. Coldstone, queen is a hereditary title… how apt.
54
If you believe that a man is actually employing his ex-wife who lives 150 miles away, to do anything worthwhile, your an arse.
This is obviously a way of paying her off after the divorce.
58. As I said, it sure beats paying maintenance. You and I can pay for it instead!
Looks that unless the dynamic is shifted (possibly by Lib Dems) the upshot of the MP nepotism scandal will be to the advantage of Cameron and the Tories, because he’s seized the iniatitive by removing the whip from Conway. Will see if what he does to other malefactors.
As Labour supporter am very sorry to say this, but appears that the parliamentary Labour Party has become some accustomed to casual corruption from No 10 down, that it will be incapable of reforming itself until the voters banish the party’s MPs to opposition benches. As for the membership, gives every appearence of Stockholm syndrom.
Sad but true?
53 SBS - you continue to be king jester here!
LDs = LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
58 - read what I say at the beginning. so long as they are doing the work. Unless you know to the contrary and I admit that I do not, so I dont pass comment.
The Daily Mail reports on the “King & Queen of the Commons”:
http://tinyurl.com/22yhe7
60 By “casual corruption” what I mean are cosy little arraignments that benefit nobody but the politico. Like the House bank, which was a sweet deal UNTIL the cat was let out of the bag, then all heck broke loose.
And helped lead to a dozen years of GOP congressional dominance.
62
62 You poor ‘ol thing, Always remember Oscar Wilde, ‘I can resist anything but temptation’
If you have a system, which is so open to abuse, it will be abused.
It doesn’t matter whether they are doing the work or not, it is not right, that MP’s should be able to employ their kin. It is a system that invites corruption end of story!!
It is our money, not theirs, we employ them.
63 That doesn’t appear to work so I’ll have another try:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=511855&in_page_id=1770
63. link doesn’t work
And now, boxing.
Could be very interesting…. one way or another
65 There is a difference between the opportunity to and the practice of corruption. Transarency tends to counter the possibility of corruption - if we know who an MP employs and what they do then I’ve no problem with employment of family members.
The ex-Mrs Spink’s knowledge and experience in the constituency may well make her a very productive member of staff, with considerable evidence of activity.
The Conway affair rose because Mr Conway could not produce evidence of any work or Westminster activity by his son - had he been able to do so the Committee would have leapt on it gratefully and exonerated him.
65. It is your opinion that MPs should not be allowed to employ members of their family on their staff. As far as I can see from the media, it is not ilegal and if they are doing the job, any boss should be able to appoint who they wish. Yes the system is open to abuse, but I dont recall you or anyone else saying that a few weeks ago. Peter Hain employs his 80 year old mother - I suppose that is all right.
G (57) - You observe that “Queen” is a hereditary title. Fair enough. Is Sloan also?
Other MPs may pay members of their family etc to help with their work, on a more or less reasonable basis. But surely the whole attitude of the Conway tribe will strike down the Cameron “one of us” image… No?
69 - Tell that to Caesar’s wife.
65
Totally disagree, the only way to stop this nonsense, is to stop the employment of relatives by MP’s. While it continues the suspicion will always be there, that they are stealing the taxpayers money.
The party political system in this country has had its day, it attracts only arselickers, sycophants, and assorted hangers on. No decent person would join a political party.
What about long-standing nepotism by
House of Guelph-Hanover-Saxe-Coburg-Gotha-Windsor-Mountbatten?
71. Interesting question… i’d have to conclude no. It’s a fine example of social mobility, and equality of opportunity, a vindication of 10 years of new Labour
74 - Esp. since before he inherited the throne, King George III contracted a valid marriage that was never legally disolved, making his union with Queen Charlotte bigamous, and their issue of questionable legitimacy.
Do you mean to say, G (75), that absolutely ANYBODY can be a Sloan? I think that is disgraceful…..
What does Mr Cameron think about that?
77. I think streaming within Sloanes is Mr Cameron’s preferred option.
74
The reason why the Royal Faily changed their name from Saxe-Coburg-Gotha to Windsor was,(not as most people believe because of their German origins) because London was being bombed by aircraft known as Gotha bombers.
This led the Kaiser, to crack probably the only joke he ever did, ‘I can’t wait to see the Merry Wives of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha’ I know its a crap joke.
Bloody good thing they didn’t build that castle on the other side of the Thames, if they had, their surname would be Slough.
73
Yes and also publish full details of MP’s expenses,seems that MP’s think they should be exempt from the freedom of information bill,I wonder what they have to hide?
12% of Maine Rep caucus counted - Romney still leading
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#ME
But let us consider further… Streaming of Sloans by what criteria? Surely it would have to be by which public school they went to….
And the Labour response? “We must not have discrimination of any kind”… All Sloans are to be given equal consideration…
It all gets very predictable, doesn’t it?
And I still don’t take to Mr Conway and his offspring. Tories MUST decline further in the polls.
Glad to see i was at the centre of the previous thread even tho’ i didn’t participate on it!
Ave it rules!!!!
81 - Just flipped through half of the 52 pages on the CNN webpage that list every town in Maine (not “county” as the webpage says” and there are no numbers given for any town. Slightly weird.
70
I,ve just seen that, I’ve always said it, if you go back over the last week, I made it clear, that I think it stinks, Whether for Mr Conway or for Mr Hain or for anyone else.
I think Mr Spinks position is looking very dodgy.
http://tinyurl.com/2kfuw8
I think the endless mockery rather than any perceived corruption will be more damaging. The mixture of c list celebrity, posh parties and petty theivery catches the public imagination a lot more than actual abuse of expenses.
The Wintertons looking even worse.
http://tinyurl.com/2kwbjn
Hopefully this will be the beginning of a purge of politicians of all parties who’ve let us down.
84 Isn’t Bangor in Maine?
That’s sure to go to Plaid.
Glad to see Morus happy:)
Any idea where the labour vote is going…the poll shows Tories static..labour down 3 and Libs up one…so where did the other 2 go?
88 Destination Bangor, Maine
CON GAIN WOLVERHAMPTON
Ipswich next………..
89 The other 2% went to Others.
Will be getting returns tonight from:
Bangor
Monmouth
Newport
Arundel
Durham
Leeds
Manchester
St Albans
Yarmouth
Newcastle
Chelsea
Oxford
Plymouth
Windsor
Also from:
Athens
Lisbon
Belfast
Bremen
Palermo
Rome
Stockholm
Limerick
Naples
Sorrento
Vienna
Not to mention:
China
Norway
Denmark
Sweden
Mexico
Wales
All towns in Maine
It probably won’t harm the Tories, nor will Conway’s self-serving twaddle in tomorrow’s Mail. Most students have full time work, he says, rather than McDonalds Freddie was working for me. Most students don’t get £13k working part time in McDonalds or anywhere else for that matter. It might reinforce in the public’s minds that the Tory party still now has some of these odious creeps left, but I think it will rather reinforce that Dave is determined to be rid of them.
What is state of play among parties in nepotism stakes, based upon what’s come out so far. That is, the total number of MPs per party?
fieldwork for the poll was done on Jan 30 and Jan 31.
I was phone polled by ICM last weekend, which I assume was for this poll..
193 That’s a beautiful and unexpected grouping of names. Good to see someone from Chelsea made it out there, set up shop, and named a town. I do envy those who leap and make a difference.
Maine GOP caucuses - appears to be a wee bit of confusion in the reporting. For example, CNN website has link for “county” returns, but the jurisdictions actually listed are towns (which makes sense, because the meetings are by town).
Also, CNN and Politico are giving state totals and percent of “precincts” counted but suspect this is also really percent of towns.
Note that some towns caucused last night, some are caucusing today, either in morning or afternoon and perhaps even this evening, a few are caucusing tomorrow (but surely NOT during the SuperBowl!) and think that a handful are waiting until next week.
First Conway, second Spinks, then the Wintertons, and it seems that there are more to come….
As the good Sir Nicholas himself says: “A lot of people claim more – I am in the bottom 40 of MPs who claim” - from the Telegraph site, so it must be true.
What are the odds on Cameron throwing in the towel even before Brown gets the push?
94 Cameron is helped by the fact that most of the names highlighted are definitely non-Cameroons. The story is likely to move onto Labour MPs as their arrangements become known - potentially more damaging as some on the payroll will be caught in the net meaning media demands for loss of government posts.
93 - Sorry, left out:
Bath (as in the famous Bath Iron Works)
Cumberland
North Berwick
99 In the Maine, therefore, taking everything into account, they are in a bit of a mess.
Boom, Boom, it’s the way I tell ‘em!
101 - The information about the Winterton’s, Conway and so on isn’t coming from inside Team Cameron is it? What better way of getting rid of the undesirables who are chaining his parties image down? Stranger conspiracy theories have proved to be true……
Maine - 41% reporting
Romney 52%
McCain 22%
Paul 19%
Huckabee 5%
Politico (getting numbers from AP) now says 41% of “precincts” reporting:
Romney = 53%
McCain = 22%
Paul = 19%
Huckabee = 5%
others = 2%
Either Romney’s having a good day OR there is something squirrely about reporting.
Which might happen IF each town is being considered as a single unit, and stats are just of percentage of towns won, not delegates.
Am just trying to save my “fearless” prediction, that McCain will win the state!
I hope our own dear Nick P has his affairs in order. I think he’ll be alright though, I don’t think it’s possible to outsource research to homeless cats.
100 It’s only a problem if they’re breaking the rules (which Conway did).
CNN is reporting following “delegate” numbers, which would seem to make more sense as “votes” though that would go directly against notion I expressed above, that percent are towns:
Romney = 1,533
McCain = 631
Paul = 542
Huckabee = 149
Undecided = 53 (would actually be “uncommitted”)
Thompson = 3
Giuliani = 2
110 - Actually numbers above might indeed make sense as state delegate numbers, IF they are indeed 41% of the entire state delegates.
Tressage - you appear to be suffering from a disease called Anticameron Desperatus - a syndrome noted among lefties who seize upon any morsel of bad news to proclaim impending doom for Britain’s next Prime Minister.
Doctors recommend repeat doses of ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ at high volume.
107 - Am sure you’re correct about the Hon Nick P, but not so sure that some ingenious legislator somewhere doesn’t have a kitty on the take.
After all, Caligula made his horse a consul. And the Supreme Court made a horse’s hindquarters president.
SSI it looks like your prediction of McCain for Maine just flew south for the winter.
108 Sorry Sean , it is not only a problem if they are breaking the rules . Most voters will see it as totally wrong that already wealthy people are using taxpayers money to avoid/reduce IHT , enrich their children / ex wives / lovers children or anyone else they are loosely connected to . What is a problem is that these sort of people and regrettably people like you cannot grasp the simple fact that the vast majority of voters know it is wrong and consider most politicians corrupt and self seeking .
More names
Believe that Portland, ME is named (perhaps indirectly) after Portland Bill.
In the late 1840s, when settlers from the US began pouring into the Oregon Country, a city began springing up on the banks of the Willamette River a few miles south of it’s junction with the mighty Columbia.
There was an amiable dispute over just what to call the new town. The majority of the newcomers were New Englanders, and two preferred options quickly emerged.
A coin toss settled the matter.
Which is why today you may visit the loveley city of Portland, Oregon.
Instead of the nonexistent city of Boston, Oregon.
Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram
Feb 2, 6:30pm EST
“Romney Tops Early Maine Preference Votes
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped early results in preference voting at Republican municipal caucuses across Maine today.
Romney received 568 votes, or 53.23 percent of 1,067 votes cast, with 12.17 percent of caucuses reporting at 3 p.m., according to the Maine Republican Party Web site.
Ron Paul, Texas congressman, received 220 votes (20.62 percent); John McCain, Arizona senator, received 195 votes (18.28 percent); and Mike Huckabee received 55 votes (5.15 percent).
Party leaders are expected to announce statewide results from today’s caucuses at a 7 p.m. gathering in Portland.”
113 - sure seems that way, don’t it?
111 Ha! Bl….y ha!
114 - But quite a few politicans have to rely on their relatives because they are the only people who can be trusted to work long hours, sometimes for poor pay (unlike the Conways, or possibly the ex-Mrs Spink), while able to remain close to the MP. Loyal, non-related staff would probably demand just as much, and could lead to ridiculous scandals. For instance, if an MP marries his or her secretary (as has often happen - for instance, with Douglas Hurd or Robin Cook), should the secretary then be sacked?
117 So how many loonies is that you owe me, SSI?
Btw, I loved the place names in New England. It was like driving around (old) England with everything in the wrong place. Driving north to Portsmouth seemed particularly weird.
According to Maine Secretary of State:
Total voter registation as of Nov 2006 = 993,748
Democratic = 309,525
Republican = 279,641
Green Independent = 29,347
Unenrolled = 375,235
IF current 3,394 votes reported so far are truly 47% of the eventual statewide caucus turnout, then projects to just over 6,800 votes statewide.
Is Romney’s Massachussetts experience helping him in Maine? Could also have an impace in other NE states.
220 Still waiting for all the votes to come in before doing the calculation - you know, until recently loonie was only worth 80% of US$ or less. But thanks to brilliant Cheney Admin. economic policies, loonie is now at par for first time in a generation.
So am doubly victimized (so it appears based on early returns).
If you want to drive south west for Portsmouth, rent a car in Boston and head for Portsmouth, Ohio which is on Ohio River across from Kentucky where the loveley Scioto River flows into the even lovelier Ohio. Kind of like the Rhine without the castles.
123 “Kind of like the Rhine without the castles….”
…And the Germans. Sounds wonderful.
22 Looks like what the deal is, is low turnout.
Report from caucus in Kennebec County (Augusta, state capital) said that surrogates for Romney were former Mass GOP Gov Jane Swift (a stormy petrel) plus Romney’s son Taig, the kid who did the Spanish language ads for his Dad in Florida (which whatever happened were NOT the cause of his dad’s defeat).
Romney himself today attended funeral of late LDS Church President Gordon Hinckley in Salt Lake City.
Omen? Harbinger? Coincidence?
back to Scottish politics for a wee while - doesn’t look good for Wendy - she is being reported to the Proculator Fiscal by the Electoral Commission according to the headline in the Sunday Herald.
http://tinyurl.com/2bjhj7
126 should have typed - Procurator I need an edit button.
The CNN site doesn’t seem to be updating. Does anyone have a more current site for the caucus news?
126 so it’s curtains for Capt Hook’s little friend?
128 - I can only find 47% as the latest.
Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, had 53 percent of the vote with 47 percent of the towns holding caucuses reporting. John McCain trailed with 21 percent, Ron Paul was third with 19 percent, and Mike Huckabee had 5 percent. Undecided votes accounted for 2 percent.
128 - No. Must say that the reporting is a bit opaque, for example no clue where these votes are actually coming from.
Could be that what we’re seeing are the small towns, which would make sense with such low numbers.
Which could give advantage to religious right if they’re (finally) getting behind Romney and turned out their people.
My sense is that half the towns may have reported, but not half the vote. But we shall see.
I see the Telegraph is managing to compare two different polls by two different pollsters in order to claim that the ICM figure shows a reduced lead for the Tories rather than the increased lead which this represents from this pollster.
As you reported the last Telegraph poll was the ” YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph which still has the party at above 40% albeit with a slightly smaller lead. These are the shares compared with the last national poll by the firm: CON 41 (-2)%: LAB 33% (nc): LD 16% (+2)”
How desperate is Heffer to dish Cameron?
Am now listening to Fiona Ritchie show on Maine Public Radio. Will see if they have any local news updates.
Witan I rather think its the twins not Heffer who decide the Telegraphs editorial line. So the question is, why do they want to dish Cameron?
The Conway saga gives hope - that the what’s-in-it-for-me types will be slung out, and the more public-spirited will replace or predominate…at least in the Conservative Party. The democracy of the blogs drove the (partial) firing of Conway, who is still hanging on to collect maximum pension.
Even if current Maine numbers are skewed toward the smaller, more rural towns, still look very good for Romney. Interestingly, Paul is about where you’d think he’d be in a Maine caucus, given the state’s strong libertarian streak.
Updated Maine GOP Caucus numbers
53% reporting
Romney 52%
McCain 23%
Paul 19%
Huckabee 5.5%
other 2%
137 - sorry, according to Politico via AP is actually 57% yet these numbers look same as at 47%.
Galloglass A good point but Heffer is their creature and agent in this.
Why the twins want to dish Cameron might be because they have been persuaded that it is an interesting editorial line for the Torygraph? Or do you think that it is something more sinister?
Perhaps they, too, see business booming in a UKIPist Britain where too many questions are not asked about reclusive island owners outside the UK tax system and the EU?
135 The what’s in it for me types will unfortunately not be slung out . Conway will be the sacrificial lamb and the others hide behind the fact that they kept within the rules despite the fact that they only see the rules as a milk cow to be bled dry .
57% Maine returns look righteous, as CNN is now reporting that percentage.
Newt Gingrich used the 1994 US House “bank” scandal to help leverage the Contract with America. And the rest as they say is history.
What is stopping some enterprising British politico from doing something similar with your latest fine mess?
SSI @ 142: “What is stopping some enterprising British politico from doing something similar with your latest fine mess?” — the widespread belief they are all at it!
If you noticed, Irish PM Bertie Ahern visited the Ballyemana constituency of Northern Ireland First Minister Rev. Dr. Ian Paisley. They discussed mutual cooperation in attracting more foreign investment.
“It is a good day for the whole of Ireland because we need help from outside,” said Paisley.
Now what punter in his right mind would have bet on ANY of the above 20 or even 5 years ago?
Maine update
64% reporting
Romney 52%
McCain 22%
Paul 19%
Huckabee 6%
other 2%
143 - Ah, but that was also the perception in the US, except that the Democratic US House establishment just laughed it off. Whereas Gingrich saw it as opportunity, and ammunition.
Are Maine results a predictor of Super Tuesday?
MAINE votes per CNN
Romney = 2,137 (52%)
McCain = 889 (21%)
Paul = 782 (19%)
Huckabee = 235 (6%)
Uncommitted = 76 (2%)
Thompson = 3
Guiliani = 2
Starting to look a lot like NEVADA
147 - Think what Maine is telling us, is that Romney has shot winning caucus states or low-turnout primaries. Also in places where the conservative right unites behind Romney and shuns McCain in sufficient numbers.
If I had my choice between winning the Maine caucuses, or getting the Los Angeles Times endorsement, would definitely pick the latter.
How many delegates does maine have? is it WTA ?
If you look at the peroid between the begining of field work for the last ICM and the end of this one its been prety turbulant. and the result. all three party shares within the margin of error and an increase of the tory lead within the margin of error. a more compelling antedote to the over hyped micro analysis of these threads its difficult to imagine my self included.
For my sins i keep track of the con home poll of polls. ( please tell me why this is rubbish . I note with interest
1. a few weeks ago the tory lead was 10%. Now its 4.8% remarkably similar todays poll.
2. until very recentlythre was no sign of activity in te lib em dead parrot. now th rating is 17.8% compared to 16.2% just before clegg took over. hardly a honeymoon but this gap is steadily inching up.
my opinion ? is a 4.8% poll deficit for a governing party in the middle of a third term really the apocalyptic senario that is peddled daily on this site?
151 - 18 GOP national convention delegates up for grabs via Maine caucuses; don’t know for sure but do NOT think its WTA.
*cough* two threads ago *cough* seanT (81) JohnLoony (121) *cough*
Note that caucus process does NOT include residents (mostly seabirds) of Machias Seal Island, which is claimed by both US and Canada; the Canucks operate a lighthouse.
Yet another hellish design by perfidious Albion!
If a by-election were to be held in Bexley & Sidcup, it would be about (ish) the same as Bromley & Chislehurst
Con 12,000
LD 9,000
Lab 3,000
BNP 2,000
UKIP 1,500
Others 1,000
60. I think well of you for being a Democrat (not to mention an Obama supporter!), but don’t make the mistake of assuming just because you support the “left-wing” party in one country you should be supportive of the “left-wing” party in another one.
It was the Labour party in the UK that pressured the intelligencce agencies to come up with justification for Iraq. It was the Labour party that banned non-violent protest near parliament. It is the Labour party that has brought in the children’s database for the govt to keep records on every child’s family life and dietary habits. It’s the Labour party that wants to record our DNA on ID cards for every citizen, and to sell the data to private companies. It’s the Labour party that wishes to transfer control of the country from the mother of parliaments to the undemocratic European commission. It is the Labour party that has brought in ever increasing centralisation of goverment, with all privacy safeguards between them broken down.
The US Democratic Party is based around the philosophy of liberalism and democracy, with an increasing tendency for pragmatic realism. This puts them somewhere between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in the UK. Labour, however, is a party historically based around centralised authoritarian socialism. Now they have moved to be about centralised authoritarian capitalism. Don’t think they have moderated on the first two things.
Maine Caucuses musical interlude . . .
The Reach
Dan Fogelberg
It’s Maine and it’s autumn
The birches have just begun turning
It’s life and it’s dying
The lobstermen’s boats come returning
With the catch of the day in their holds
and the young boys cold and complaining
The fog meets the beaches and
And out on the Reach it is raining
It’s father and son
It’s the way it’s been done
Since the old days
It’s hauling by hand ten miles out
From the land where their chow waits
And the days are all lonely and long
And seas grow so stormy and strong
But the Reach will sing welcome
As homeward they hurry along
And the morning will blow away
As the waves crash and fall
And the Reach like a siren sings
As she beckons and calls
As the coastline recedes from view
And the seas swell and roll
I will take from the Reach
all that she has to teach
To the depths of my soul
The wind brings a chill
There’s a frost on the sill
In the morning
It creeps through the door
On the edge of the shore
Ice is forming
Soon the northers will bluster and blow
And the woods will be whitened
with snowfall
And the Reach will lie frozen
for the lost and unchosen to row
And the morning will blow away
As the waves crash and fall
And the Reach like a siren sings
As she beckons and calls
As the coastline recedes from view
And the seas swell and roll
I will take from the Reach
All that she has to teach
To the depths of my soul
ROMNEY IN NORTH DAKOTA
Boston Globe says Ann Romney has taken North Dakota by storm during flying visit to Fargo, where she explained her husband really does have a tremendous sense of humor.
“It’s unfortunate,” she said, “sometimes his real personality can’t come out”
OBAMA WOWS MOUTAIN WEST
BG also reports on Obama’s swing through the Rocky Mountain states, drawing following crowds:
“The numbers: more than 15,000 in Denver; about 13,000 in Phoenix; between 6,000 and 6,500 in Albuquerque, and almost 6,000 in Santa Fe last night.
And then there’s this morning’s rally here in Boise: Obama’s campaign says nearly 15,000 people came out to the Taco Bell Arena at Boise State University, where the Illinois senator just finished speaking.
To put that in perspective: That’s about 10 percent of Boise’s voting-age population. And it’s roughly three times the number of people who participated in the 2004 Democratic caucuses in all of Idaho.
“Look at this. What an unbelievable crowd,” Obama said. “They told me there weren’t any Democrats in Idaho. That’s what they told me. But I didn’t believe them.”
The vast majority of the Idahoans here are, in the words of Obama senior strategist David Axelrod, “virgin ears” — they’ve never seen Obama in person before, never heard the stump speech, never laughed at his joke about being disappointed at learning he’s a distant cousin of Dick Cheney, not Paul Revere. And they are listening raptly.
Nicki Taylor, a 28-year-old from Nampa, Idaho who works for a veterinary supply company, came undecided and left convinced. She was moved by Obama’s message, and by his crowd. “Driving here today and seeing all the cars — unreal,” she said.”
Is it enough? That’s the question. Obama’s Feb. 5 tour is still very much about introducing himself to the rest of the country, for whom Hillary Clinton is the more household name. So the challenge Obama faces on Tuesday mirrors the one he’s faced all along: Can he convert this buzz into something concrete?”
NEWS FLASH: today, sunday campaign event in Los Angeles featuring Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey and Carolyn Kennedy
Nearest thing I’ve seen to the Obama phenomenon in politics, up close and personal, are campaigns of:
–former Gov. Gary Locke (D-Washington State) first Asian American (of Chinese heritage) elected governor outside Hawaii
–current Gov. Deval Patrick (D-Massachusetts) first African American governor in US since Doug Wilder of Virginia, who was first in US since Reconstruction
–current Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-Louisiana) first South Asian gov, first Republican non-white gov, first non-white gov in LA since Reconstruction
Each of these guy was not your typical ethnic politician. Instead, they are highly-educated, extremely articulate technocrats. In all three cases, they would be worthy but not exactly exciting political candidates.
It is the fact that they are highly competent, progressive, pragmatic, appealling that gives them a shot. BUT it’s the fact that “there’s something really different about this guy” that gives them their amazing political charisma and voting getting potential.
Which generates considerable
“46. Brazier seems to be paying his wife (pro-rata) more than he’s earning himself”
“46. Brazier seems to be paying his wife (pro-rata) more than he’s earning himself”
Sorry for the MPs - I’ll get there in the end
46.
“Brazier seems to be paying his wife (pro-rata) more than he’s earning himself”
Remarkably astute judgement by Mr B on this issue - of course roughly 70,000 of his constituents would also be better value for money than the hon gentleman concerned.
Frankly I am shocked to learn that Julian Brazier has refused to tell the public just how much he pays his wife. Even if the Times have got it wrong as he claims he still refuses to give out an actual figure. Arrogance or stupidity? You choose!