Could Gord get away with abolishing PMQs?
February 6th, 2008
Would he take a short-term hit for a long-term benefit?
Another Wednesday and another PMQs for Gordon Brown to have to endure. He clearly doesn’t like them and being open every seven days to the fierce blasts that Cameron is able to master cannot be very pleasant.
Ever since a piece appeared in the Indy a couple of weeks ago about Brown’s views of the weekly ritual I’ve been pondering over whether we are being softened up for a proposal to change the structure.
Maybe they could find a way of blaming Cameron for the need for change because of the way the Tory leader handles the event
The Indy suggested Gordon Brown is telling friends that the public is being increasingly repelled by the event and that the Commons exchanges are now of little use in discussing the issues of the day.
It was emphasised, however, that there were no plans for change. Maybe I am being very suspicious but for Downing street to suggest this makes me wonder whether, indeed plans are being drawn up.
Of course there would be a huge row in the commons and in the media and the Tories would claim that he’s “scared” and “chicken”. But that would eventually blow over and Brown would have taken away the weekly nightmare.
Clearly there would have to be something in it place but, no doubt, something could be devised that sounded fair and reasonable but took away the Opposition Leader’s six questions.
It’s just a thought.
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Great mischief making Mike!
Most people aren’t watching telly at midday on wednesday. I doubt it’s continuous presence or absence would have much effect outside of the politics pages and westminster.
I would prefer to abolish Gordon.
Abolition of PMQs because Mr Bean cannot cope, what a portrait of courage!
Latest from CNN (results)
Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 590 Superdelegates: 193 Total: 783
Barack Obama
Pledged: 603 Superdelegates: 106 Total: 709
Hehe, he’d never get away with it and he’d have to be a blithering idiot to try it.
Then again, he did try to divert attention from signing the EU Constitreaty by turning up late… and subsequently got even more attention.
He could, however, get away with format changes (going back to two 15 minute sessions for example). But I doubt he’ll want to try tinkering, and anything perceived as lessening the Opposition’s questioning power would make him look cowardly.
PMQs is one of the greatest traditions of British democracy. I know many Americans who watch it on C-SPAN amazed at it and wishing for anything similar over there.
Any PM of any party who abolished PMQs would bring shame to his office and would not deserve it. The media would rightly take against him for it too until he’s humiliated out of office.
If Brown is genuinely right in thinking that the public is turned off from PMQs then he has no reason to be concerned by it anyway.
OT: could someone please tell me exactly what superdelegates are? I think I heard that they can shift from one person to another, unlike ordinary delegates.
The British Constitution is a flexible, and dynamic thing, but a major change like this would need to be done from a position of authority and dominance. Blair could have got away with it, i dont think Brown could. It reinforces the McCavity impression, it eats away at his reputation for accountability.
It would be a terrible decision for Brown. PMQs are the centrepoint (from the public point of view) of Parliament.
Of course he could revise it, and maybe remove Camerons six questions, by maybe, increasing the libdems and giving the Scot Nationalists a designated question. But since Brown despises both of them, i doubt he would even do that.
Brown just has to learn to get better at it. He has put on a few good performances, there is no reason why he cant improve. Someone needs to tell him to stop asking questions of the opposition members.
Some of his Labour MPs whoop at him doing so, assuming it puts Cameron on the edge (who doesnt take the bite, at all it seems), but they know its bad form. It has to stop.
I can understand (but not excuse it) the Speaker not wanting to attack the PM in public, but its not good enough. He needs to have a strong quiet word with the PM and tell him that in future he will rule it out of order and instruct the PM to answer the questions.
5. Why Hillary probably won’t win…
http://themoderatevoice.com/at-tmv/newsweek-blogitics/17608/obama-in-command-of-the-race/
I think the problem is that it probably wouldn’t be a short term hit but would feed into the growing theme. The world and his aunt would have fun with his book on ‘courage’, the Conservatives would go ballistic. This site would be unbearable! I also think the Conservatives could quite easily lay a trap of trying to get him to agree to a televised election debate into the bargain. It would look like the petulant child losing at Monopoly who throws the board up in the air and flounces off. It would be a total and utter disaster.
8. It seems to me superdelegates are there purely to “beef up” the ultimate winner’s perceived margin of victory, not to decide the victor themselves. The above article linked at 10 explains succintly why superdelegates won’t help Hillary….
To contradict my earlier post, it would feed into a media narrative and allow the conservatives to howl with derision.
One of the things that has struck me about it is that there is no “questions for the leader of the opposition.” Gordon could work that in, giving himself a slight respite and DC a bit of a hard time.
He may want to abolish it, but I doubt if the Press would allow it! It gives them some easy coverage of an ersatz conflict, which they can peddle as an interesting and relevant news story. It isn’t, of course - it’s just a charade, and far removed from the original purpose of giving the Legislature a chance to hold the Executive to account.
But when all’s said and done, PMQs has only existed since the early 1960s, so it’s not a particularly hallowed part of the Constitution. One thing is for certain, though - if Brown did abolish PMQs, none of his successors would reinstate it.
Obama (apparently backed by some networks’ calculations) claims he gained more delegates than Clinton yesterday
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html
13, I don’t think that would work. Would Cameron only be questioned, or Clegg as well? What about the Irish party leaders, and the SNP and Plaid Cymru?
You can’t hold the Opposition to account because they don’t govern the country.
Finally, it won’t happen because Cameron would then have even more opportunities to slap Brown around.
he might launch a review into PMQs……….. then appoint an advisory committee….. then an implementation group…but make a decision to abolish them? Not a chance.
Why worry about them anyway, he only has 18months-2yrs left to endure them.
Rod Crosby @ 10.
That is an excellent and succinct analysis and represents why Obama is very good value in the markets.
It’s noticable how very badly Hillary has done in all caucus contests and this has blunted her edge in the larger states.
16. Biggest oppostion party, and although they don’t govern the country, they want to and are involved at most levels with it’s governance.
14. I disagree. If Brown abolished it, as part of the attack, it would be absolutely necessary for Cameron to commit to reintroduce it.
It reminds the PM that he is of Parliament, and accountable to it. We would in essence have a President without a popular vote, he would not need to turn up for parliament, except maybe for grand events.
A strong Prime Minister might be able to abolish Prime Minister’s Questions (Tony Blair dramatically reduced its impact by reducing the number of sessions from two to one a week, although he doubled its length). Gordon Brown is not a strong Prime Minister.
Moreover, it is not in Gordon Brown’s interests to do so. It gives him a strong reason for keeping a tight rein over everything happening in his Government on a weekly basis. Without that excuse, he would find it harder to pry into the detail of each department.
Brown wouldn’t dare, the papers would have a field day, as would the opposition, and although Brown’s little clique claim it turns off voters, the public would be angry too. He’d be castigated as a coward in the press and battered in the commons by Cameron, who would rightly see it as a victory. Brown and his team have so far shwon themselves to be inept at any political manouverings, this would be handled just as badly.
21, a strong Prime Minister wouldn’t want to, or need to. Blair smashed IDS about, and had the better of it against Howard. Brown, on the other hand, ranges from awful to adequate at best.
An unelected PM abolishes the only real time he can be called to account ?
Cons would have a field day.
Repost from last thread:
Ok, well I’ve tuned in here and am shocked at how everyone’s calling it for Clinton. MSNBC this morning was reporting how it was pretty even, but looking ahead Obama has the edge. All the newspaper headlines on the train were about how last night as a tie, or that the battle could go on into the Spring. As the outsider, Super Tuesday was always going to be Barack’s biggest obstacle. He won most states and most delegates. With the primaries coming up, not only are they favourable territory to him, but he can spend more time in each state getting his recognition up to Clinton’s. The spread of them also means that every positive result will stay in the news for longer. Obama is less than 75 delegates behind Clinton and may well be ahead by Sunday morning. If you’re gambler, my advice is put a lot on Barack at these favourable odds.
Roger, were you reading the same site as the rest of us? Other than candidate cheerleading, all the informed analysis on this site was that nothing would be decided and the fight would go on. I’ve been saying for a long time this would be the case. I’ve also predicted the collapse of Romney for a long time and said that evangelicals wouldn’t abandon Huckabee and he’d do better than expected.
donpaskini, I was thinking this yesterday. A sealed up Republican contest, especially one with base conservatives sniping at McCain, means the GOP are not getting favourable coverage, while the media will stay focused on the Democrats making speeches in front of supporters. Also, whoever wins the Democratic nomination will, by the time of the general, have been thought of a winner more recently in the public’s minds. McCain would also have problems directing his fire: Clinton and Obama are so unalike that any attack on one risks making the other look better. Meanwhile there are twice as many people getting media coverage having a go at McCain.I think the conventional wisdom that a prolonged Democratic race could harm them might be very flawed indeed.
‘Gordon Brown is telling friends that the public is being increasingly repelled by the event’
So either he has been reading the BBC comments (posted by his own spotty juniors) and is thus completely self-deluded, or he is being dishonest and thinks his colleagues are incredibly stupid.
Abolishing PMQs would be both disgraceful and hideously counterproductive. He would look “frit”. And sly. And cowardly. Disastrous politics.
People may not “like” PMQs for its yah-boo aspects but they like the idea the prime minister is vigorously challenged in the House of Commons once a week.
I think Brown would get not only the derision of all the opposition parties (indeed he might find it hard to force through the Commons, if some MPs rebel - and surely they would?) - he would find the entire media world enraged and contemptuous.
Not possible. And I don’t think Blair could have done it either. Even Thatcher couldn’t have done it in her pomp.
Re the US delegates issue. I’ve been trying to explain, gently, to Nick Palmer that Obama either got pretty much a score draw in delegates - or he actually won. Nick seems to be labouring under some delusion that 300 Californian delegates are gonna suddenly drop on Hillz.
FWIW I also think adding superdelegates to the scores is a little dubious. They can switch. And they do, for various reasons, some of them quite moral - i.e. their home county or state voted for a different candidate.
Without the supers, Obama is ahead.
OT. Next Italian Prime Minister market at PP
Applies to next permanent President of Italy AFTER the Election. Does not include caretaker President.
Silvio Berlusconi 1 - 4
Walter Veltroni 5 - 2
Giovanni Trapattoni 100 - 1
Any value in Veltroni?
“Polls give Berlusconi and his rightwing allies a lead of between 10 and 15 percentage points. But they also show that by running alone, without support from the radical left, Veltroni and the Democratic party could whittle the gap to less than three”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/italy/story/0,,2253087,00.html
23 - I don’t disagree about the “need to”, but why do you think Blair made those changes to Prime Minister’s Questions? It always seemed to me that he had done so to reduce the number of days a week when he could slip on a banana skin.
I don’t doubt that Brown would love to abolish, what is for him, a growing weekly trauma that seems to be gradually grinding him down. He will do it if he thinks he can get away with it.
From the last thread. The FT’s view on Brown’s “chaotic” reign:
“Mess, prime minister: From the shadows of his bunker emerges a battered Brown
By George Parker and Alex Barker
Last updated: February 5 2008 19:28
Supporters of Gordon Brown speak of “chaos” – and that is one of the gentler words used to describe the past few months at 10 Downing Street under Britain’s prime minister.
His officials have sometimes been seen in nearby pubs red-eyed with fatigue and – occasionally – with the sting of tears. Their complaints are of a prime minister shouting at the typists, taking out his frustration on his closest aides and unable to take decisions. For them, Mr Brown has been at the helm of the GST: the “Good Ship Titanic”. Even loyal ministers admit that things inside a dysfunctional Downing Street were becoming “ridiculous”…..”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a441af4e-d405-11dc-a8c6-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
30. That certainly deserved a repost. Our PM it seems shows rather little ‘courage’, instead indulging in childish tantrums much of the time.
Another interesting analysis of the Democrat race, and the possibilities for Obama going forwrd…
http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/080206nj1.htm
Obama cleaning up amongst smart, wealthy people, who are also I guess the “opinion formers”…
25. Hey! I’m not calling it for Clinton. I’ve been battling the massed armies of ignorance, camped out on the darkling plains of pb.com, for hours. But the Hillary-loving Orcs won’t listen.
A frigging mollusc with dyslexia can interpret what happened yesterday: A Whacking Big Draw. A tie. Neck and Neck. Even stevens. All to play for. Game on.
And a draw, of course, favours Obama, as the next few weeks should get better for him - in terms of money, momentum, and amenable primaries.
28- “But they also show that by running alone, without support from the radical left, Veltroni and the Democratic party could whittle the gap to less than three”
I really can’t see it.
The 10-15% gap is over the whole centre-left, not over PD alone.
PD can gain votes during a campaign running alone (and so without having to worry by a communist popping up every week disagreeing with something) but they can’t really pass the whole CR coalition alone. They can go from high 20s to 30s IMO, but not much more.
I think I know where the 10-15% gap reduced to 3% thing came from…if it’s what I think they refer to, it would be the gap over the whole opposition..but if PD runs alone with the current electoral law, it would be worthless in terms of a win.
For ex (making up numbers)…CR get 52%, PD 33%, Radical Left 12%, other CL 3%…it would be an easy majority for CR in terms of seats (bonus at the House and regional bonus in the majority of regions at the Senate)
33. Yes, I was going to say that in the last two threads you had moved from romanticist orator to the lone astute analyst!
Friends, Brown has ‘friends’, I thought he only had ‘visions’.
It was a shame that he wasn’t stoppped from asking questions to both Cameron and Clegg. He failed to address Clegg’s concerns about fingerprinting schoolchildern; instead he waffles on about protecting Liberties.
If Brown can’t cope with PMQs he should give up, or show some courage and face up to the questions. Gordon Brown: Portrait of courage, my @r5e.
33 - Like you say all to play for but there is a couple of things that could really throw Obama. For instance, what if Edwards endorses Hillary? What if she starts a creeping barrage of Endorsents that she has kept back?
34- Indeed, the polls with a reduced gap of three points are for the total CR against the total CL.
Il Cavaliere va a vincere ancora, povera Italia…
I said before the election that never happened that Gordon would not do well on the campaign - unlike Tony he does not like being in situations where he has to think on his feet - he is much more comfortable with pre scripted monologues and prepared answers - if he had his way he would get rid of not only PMQs but also any events where he has to face an interogation because he tends to lose and he is painfully aware of this weakness- it was one of the reasons i believe why he only wielded the knife against TB when he was sure that there would be not contest for the leadership . Essentially he is not cut out to be prime minister but he really wants to hold onto the position. If abolishing PMQs will help him do that he will go for it
35. Yes, I’m just sharper than everybody else. That’s my problem. A prophet without honour.
Ahem.
I notice that Clinton’s price has drifted somewhat on betfair, while Obama has tightened a tad. Heading towards evens, which is probably what it should be. No one knows who is gonna win this race, not us, not the bookies, not Wogerdamus, not the candidates themselves.
But right now I’d probably rather be Obama than Hillz, though it’s a very close call.
Now I’m going to watch Rambo IV.
36. Dubcek used to talk about ’socialism with a human face’.
Brown is giving us authoritarian socialism with a saturnine countenance. The first feel-bad PM.
34. Thanks Andrea for the insight. Is it likely that something may happen in the 2 months to 13 April that could mix things up, such as a change to the electoral law to stop such unstable coalitions in future?
37. Clinton wanted this race to be sewn up before it began. That’s why she got all her endorsements out public beforehand to give her the air of inevitability. She’s unlikely to have any more forthcoming as she wasn’t expecting a fight.
What if that doesn’t happen? What if, instead, Barack sacrifices a live sheep on the Letterman show? What if Hillary’s bra explodes, revealing a small training camp for Al Qaeda concealed in her cleavage?
What if? What if? What if?
What if you stop coming up with ludicrous ideas that have no basis in reality and spring only from yr alleged “brain”? What are these secret endorsements? Where are they? Who is it? Who’s going to endorse her? The Krankies? Robert Mugabe? Bob Holness from Countdown?
I wondered if anyone can tell me when McCain, if he is the Republican nominee, would have to select his VP by?
It seems to me that this decision would be very much shaped by the Democrat opponent. If it is Hillary, I think McCain can consider sidelining the requirement for the socially conservative wing of the party to have a VP candidate. He has shown to be popular amongst independents and Hillary is the perfect person to force up Republican loyalties. This does not solve any problems McCain could have in the South though.
But if Obama wins the Democratic nomination, McCain would be in a contest with the only other person to consistently win independent support, perhaps making the support of social conservatives more critical to chances of success?
[US thread 265] - James Burdett said “It remains to be seen whether Obama wins more delegates. From my admittedly untrained eye, Clinton seems to be doing marginally better in Obama states than Obama is in Clinton states.”
Maybe it is my rose-tinted specs, but.. Lets take their home states:
Illinois for Obama by 65-33 (%) 62-31 (delegates, 60 to allocate)
New York for Clinton by 57-40 (%) 127-87 (delegates, 18 to allocate)
To my untrained eye it look as though both sides won some states easily, Obama won some tight states (Missouri, New Mexico) and Clinton won the biggest states (California, New York/Jersey), whilst Obama won the biggest of the rest (Georgia, Colorado, Minnesota).
Like seant says, it’s a draw.
I hope PMQs is abolished and replaced with something like the Liaison Committee grillings on a more regular basis. PMQs is a complete waste of time. Even a self-confessed political junkie like me finds it terminally dull these days.
Is the main problem with PMQs not the most useless speaker ever ?
48 - that doesn’t help. Maybe we just have a very bad combination of all the different bits that make up PMQs at the moment.
Might Gordon be more comfortable if PMQs was a bit shorter? Say two 15 minute sessions, once on Tuesday and once on Thursday…?
47 - Liaison Committee “grilling” ?
“It is right that we review our democratic accountability and I have made clear that courageous, long term decisions are required to ensure we are fully transparent in our policies and accountable to the British people. We need a root and branch overhaul of the outdated and ineffective PMQs and its replacement with a modernised, robust system for the long term. It is the right and courageous choice to make this important and long term change now, not in the next Parliament, and to fully involve the British people, the hard working families who need answers to their difficult questions.
The party opposite, wedded as it is to yesterdays solutions. interested only in short term headline grabbing, well rehearsed soundbites doesn’t have the courage to take the long term view, to make the difficult long term decisions needed for better direct accountability.
It is right therefore that I, following the example set by my father when he introduced coffee mornings to take his congregations questions and give them long term direction, introduce Prime Ministers Blog. This 21st Century innovation, will in the long term enable the British people to directly question their PM and enable me to directly respond, not in short, quick fix answers but to give them robustly thought through and long term directions on how I am bettering their lives and delivering the change and vision this country needs,”
The Rt Hon Gordon Brown, Prime Minister, Webmaster and First Lord of the Treasury,
52. You should send that to no 10 - you’d get a job offer..
PMQs isn’t that much of a tradition: it could be abolished or radically altered. I’d be interested in a format which excluded PMQs in their current form to backbenchers, while allowing the Leader to put a meatier q on something like the Urgent Question format, in order to develop something but a mini-debate. But Brown could not afford to make changes, any more than Major could when he was in trouble and privately wanted to change the format.
52. That’s not gordon, he didn’t mention black wednesday
Oops, missed new thread…
re 283 from last: A sealed GOP nomination, which imo will be today/tomorrow as the full impact of Romney’s California wipeout is absorbed (after CDs are allocated McCain should be 750 to Romney’s 300), will definitely leave the Dems more in the spotlight. However, is that necessary positive for them? McCain will be given a free pass for a couple of months, with the Dems attacking each other rather than him. More importantly, do Clinton and Obama actually damage each other in their desperation?
38. Chris, I left a message for you in the previous thread about Carla Bruni
42. Caveman, I think Veltroni and PD can potentially run a good campaign alone without the Radical Left. As I said they can raise from high 20s to low 30s IMO.
But it would still very very far from running the whole CR close.
A new party has been created last week (centrist)..don’t have a clue yet on how they can perform though.
As for the electoral law, the referendum about it is going to be delayed to next year because of the new elections. So it will be this law.
The exact composition of alliances and parties standing will be probably confirmed soon.
Communist Refondation, Italian Communists, Greens and Democratic Left are expected to run together in a sort of Rainbow List.
AN, Lega and UDC asked FI not to bring in again all various little CR parties and run just the 4 of them in PD run alone.
28,
‘ next permanent President of Italy AFTER the Election. Does not include caretaker President.’
The President of Italy is Giorgio Napolitano, and a very fine man too.
Are you talking about who might be elected prime minister of Italy after the April elections? (It’s reassuring that those elections will be conducted under the eye of Giuliano Amato, the current Minister of the Interior, who was called for a talk with President Napolitano before the technical mandate to rejig the electoral procedures was returned to the President.)
46. Indeed. Just to emphasise what a draw it was, here is one tally of the raw vote:
Clinton: 7,186,853 (48.78%)
Obama: 7,142,354 (48.48%)
Edwards: (2.74%)
Numbers via The Field
Incredibly close. And with some votes still to come that might favour Obama, it could end up even closer. Basically that’s as close a draw as you are gonna get with 15 million voters.
If you had asked Obama a year ago, a month ago, a week ago, can you take a draw in votes on Super Tuesday, when you win the most states, and possibly the most delegates - he would have said Yes I Can!
Meanwhile if you’d offered Clinton a draw in votes, a deficit in states, and a possible deficit in delegates, on Super Tuesday, she’d have hit you with her copy of The Female Eunuch.
52. You forgot tractor production.
Classic post.
Obama is now the slight favorite for the nomination. It looks like he will have a lead in pledged delegates, the february terrain is favorable and he has ongoing fundraising advantages. At the end of 2007 Obama had $14m on hand for the primary and Clinton had $18m while Obama outraised her $32m to $13.5m. I think he has spent more as well (he had TV ads in more ST states), but probably has a $5-10m cash on hand advantage.
NOTE - Clinton’s figures are inflated because she has collected money for the General Election that she cannot use until after the primaries.
The more time and attention Obama spends on a state the better he does. However it is not all over for Clinton. She can claim to have at least blunted Obama’s momentum, and has an opportunity to reset the narrative of the campaign and probe Obama’s weaknesses further. It’s interesting that her campaign are pushing heavily for lots more debates. Obama has run a remarkable campaign but as it goes on there is a risk he makes a major gaffe. Plus, Clinton is unlikely to want for money. Obama may outspend her but it won’t be by a huge amount.
As for the General things continue to look promising for the Democrats. The exit polls show the vast majority of Dems are happy with either Obama or Clinton. And Dem turnout again massively eclipsd that for the GOP, even in some red states. Examples - Oklahoma, Georgia anmd Misouri where the Dems beat the GOP turnout by 24, 9 and 40% respectively. In many blue states Dem turnout was more than twice as high.
Despite the apparent hatred of Clinton she got more votes than any of the Republicans in Oklahoma a pretty red state. McCain is likely to be the nominee, but will rely heavily on independents to win. He has struggled to break 40% in most red states, on a depressed turnout. Especially if Obama is the nominee several red states could be in play.
Also if it is Obama v McCain it has echoes of Santos v Vinnick in the West Wing which seemed very fanciful at the time.
59 You’re right. As of today Obama has the mo. They’re neck and neck today, but Obama has come from nowhere so is doing better.
57- Andrea
French media are no better… It becomes unbearable to read a newspaper, the presidential couple is the only subject! (i’ve given up on tv news several years ago).
61 - A very good comparison actually.
59 SeanT “Numbers via The Field”
Even the country set must be following this US election then. Suppose it passes the time now hunting is banned
63 - That’s nothing to what will happen when you move to the US if Hillary wins.
Come to Britain - you know you want to.
63. Chris from Paris, I can understand it..they’re moved from “are they together?” to “are they married?” to “is she pregnant?” …it was too much!
I was almost willing to force myself to watch a French tv series (without being harsh towards French television, but I’m not sure which is worse between Cordier, Soeur Therese or Julie Lescaut) in exchange not to see them again!
65. Yes, the beagling correspondent is unusually well-informed on Democrat psephology.
Jonathon (from the last thread) It would be difficult to attack Cameron in that way when he’s popular and as Bob Sykes points out showing Brown’s abjectness at PMQ’s could be a risk.
However Labour has little that’s positive to ’sell’ at the moment and it wouldn’t be believed if it tried. So finding a chink in David Cameron could be the best option.
Having looked at the hard sell ads of the US elections-which will have been researched to death-it’s obvious that inconsistency from your opponent is their weapon of choice. Usually a syrupy voice saying ‘he said this in October and changed his mind by November….’
With Cameron it could be much more potent. Cameron sitting with Andrew Marr in his shirt sleeves saying in that sincere voice of his ‘I want to get rid of Punch and Judy politics’ subtly intercut with some well edited footage from today with a tiny scratch on his voice. Then a positive tag line about Labour!
67 - Oi, you…stick to Midsomer Murders!
66- Well at least Bill doesn’t pose naked for lad magazines… (as our distinguished first lady recently did)
Re New Mexico
With 180 of 184 of precincts reporting statewide, Clinton held the narrowest of leads — 65,845 votes, or 43 percent, to Obama’s 65,728 votes, or 42.9 percent, Democratic party officials said Tuesday night.
Brian Col¢n, chairman of the state’s Democratic party, said early today that results from four precincts were being delayed — three in Rio Arriba County and one in Sandoval County — because the county chairmen could not be reached.
Beth Adams, the party’s caucus director, said this morning that those four outstanding precincts remain the party’s top priority.
“We’re going to have to get up there (to Rio Arriba County) within the next couple of hours and get them and focus on getting a complete count on those,” she said.
But the real wild cards were about 16,800 provisional ballots waiting to be counted.
Provisional ballots are given to voters who show up at the wrong site, whose names are not on registered voter lists provided by the state or those who requested an absentee ballot, but signed an affidavit saying they did not return it, Col¢n said.
Those provisional ballots will be counted beginning at noon at a Northeast Heights accounting firm. That will happen simultaneously with a certification of all ballots cast Tuesday, Adams said.
“It’s going to be a thorough process,” Col¢n said. “It’s going to take some time.”
Statewide, provisional ballots accounted for 10 to 12 percent of all votes cast, Col¢n said.
Party officials today said the high number is at least partly the result of their plan to encourage voters to cast ballots anywhere they could.
“We really wanted to make sure that people who weren’t able to get an absentee ballot, who were working in Santa Fe, like legislators, could get a provisional ballot,” Adams said.
69 - Roger “Then a positive tag line about Labour!”
Got it! ‘Not Flash, just Gordon’. Watch those poll numbers soar.
67- All French TV series are incredibly bad. But I’m proud to say I’ve never seen a single episode of the ones you mentioned!
French Tv is as bas as Italian TV but with less football and less veline…
If Brown abolished PMQs I would put £1000 on the Tories to win the next election and start waving goodbye to all the Labour MPs about to lose their seats.
But he won’t: Brown loses at PMQs = the Westminster bubble has something to talk about over lunch. Brown loses PMQs = the national press derides him for cowardice and the usurption of democracy.
Socrates (from the last thread) I agree this site was excellent last night. My point was that most people who hadn’t watched the results would be surprised this morning to discover Hillary was still in the race. Someone asked me yesterdaty who was going to win and I said that from reading this site it’s going to be Obama. It’s possible I read it wrongly or that the polls were misleading but that seemed to be yesterday afternoon’s consensus.
68 it’s because she hunts them and so knows all their devious ways
74. Chris, I’ve still to recover from France-Italy coproduction on Les Rois Maudits
Brown is really becoming a slightly tragic figure of fun, isn’t he?
How sad.
Looking at the calendar Washington State, Oregon, Mississippi, Louisiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Hawaii are all likely to go to Obama.
The big question is what will happen in Texas and Ohio. I think HIllary take Texas and Obama will take Ohio.
76. Next time, Rog, just email me and I’ll tell you who is in front. OK? Me and Peter the P have been calling it quite accurately since New Hampshire.
The question is what do Hillary and Obama do now? A measure of Hillary’s neediness is that she is askign for more debates (always a sign of weakness). He should refuse. He’s debated her three times. He hasn’t shirked. But he should now concentrate on his strengths: speeches, ralies, TV appearances.
She is better at debates. Let her debate with Larry King.
US pundit now on BBC saying Barack has the clear momentum. I think the media story has changed since last night.
I must admit as a Hillary supporter I was impressed that Obama won the states he did - but when I made my prediction I said I let my heart rule my head - did I really think Hillary would have won AL,DE,MO, not really - not to downplay how well he did - in terms of delegates it is a tie - but he has the next 7 to play for where he should win them with only Virginia and Louisiana being a possible for Hillary - I would call the next ones for Obama
but here goes, Obama -
Nebraska, Washington, Maine, D.C. Maryland,Hawaii, Wisconsin,Wyoming,Mississippi, (9)
Toss ups - Louisiana, Virginia,(2)
Hillary, RI, VT,OH, TX, PA, OH(6)
In terms of delegates I think she will hold him pretty close with those predictions - maybe pulling ahead with TX,OH,PA
Can’t predict ahead anymore and really I have no idea bout VT or RI but felt Hillary needed a little moral support
82 - so much so you gave her Ohio twice
Obama news conference say he won “more delegates” yesterday…
CNN has California as 52/42 Clinton after 96% of the votes counted.
Obama confident campaign is “gaining momentum by the day…”
82 - I know you favour Hillary, but even she can’t win Ohio twice…
Barack doing a live press conference now. He just is very impressive on TV. I think it’s the Luther King voice. Even when he talks bollocks it sounds resonant.
His speech last night was tired, overlong, repetitive and a bit dull - but the voice carried it. And saved him.
Now on TV he is calm, lucid, persuasive, likeable, eloquent and obviously smartand thouthful.
America has the chance to elect a very fine president. And change the perception of their country.
83, 87 - Too late… sigh
81 Some of us were calling it accurately before and during New Hampshire as well!
So much easier than UK politics where the heart gets in the way.
That said, today Brown was pants. Pure and Simple. At present the Tories look like winning by default. Sigh.
88. I much preferred SeanT the mighty invective thrower to this new, gushingly idealistic incarnation.
88 - Obama has less experience than Bush, that turned out great.
Brown’s obvious get-out is to require questions in advance. He then reads out a reply, allowing the questioner a single supplementary.
In theory that is what PMQs was meant to be when it was first started. It still is when there is a ‘listed’ (if that’s the right term) question.
91. lol.
Then I refer you back to my post of 44 on this thread. Nasty Sean hasn’t got anyway, he’s just sharing space with hitherto concealed Nice Sean, who has been coaxed into the light by the rhetoric if Barack Obama - like a watervole peeping from his burrow in the first rays of Spring sunshine.
91. Wait till he’s home in cold, wet, miserable Blighty! That’ll get him back to normal.
…She’s holding on right now, but you would anticipate he would win Virginia, Maryland and D.C.,” said Sara M. Taylor, the former Bush White House political director. “She is going to be behind next Tuesday, which is remarkable.”…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/06/AR2008020601782_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008020601923
88 - “Now on TV he is calm, lucid, persuasive, likeable, eloquent and obviously smartand thouthful.
America has the chance to elect a very fine president. And change the perception of their country. ”
SeanT is Andrew Sullivan and I claim my free “Hillary 08 t-shirt”
If Brown tried to abolish PMQ’s it’d be a compete disaster, and would seal his fate once and for all, as Britains most cowardly PM ever.
However, that doesn’t mean Brown won’t try and scrap it. I think it would be in keeping with the gutless one, to try and get out of his weekly thrashing.
78- I didn’t manage to reach the half of the first episode. The books were quite good though(if you like history novels)
One of the few recent good decisions of Sarko was to annnounce the end of advertisement on public channels: they might begin to concentrate again on delivering good quality TV…
94. Perhaps we can have a sally against Brown, for old times’ sake?
Morning After Super Tuesday
What a wild ride though the USA from coast to coast and beyond, from the frozen tundra of Point Barrow to the palm fringed beaches of American Samoa.
Like all of the previous parts of this presidential nomination process, my paramount feeling is one of pride for my country and its people.
God bless every American who voted yesterday, in all states, for all candidates, and for our common future as citizens of the United States and Planet Earth.
And God bless the Boss and all eager PBers, what an outstanding bunch of girls & boys!
101. ugh..the sickly sentiment is just getting too much now…worse than the Oscars.
Jon Craig calls PMQs a score draw.
back on topic
Think Blair was smart to consolidate two 15 minute PMQs into one half hour weekly session.
Brown is just going to have to like it or lump it. Even voters who dislike or disparage PMQs would think less of Gord if he funked.
And he’d lose his credibility with US public opinion, at least the educated public that enjoys watching PMQs (via C-SPan on cable TV) and seriously envies the UK for having such a wonderful institution.
Which speaks to role that PMQs play in building and maintaining good will and respect for UK around the globe, most esp. (but certainly not entirely) in English-speaking countries.
102 - Agreed, much worse!
99. When I read the abolishing TV ads on public channels proposal, I thought “Oh God, now they can do all their historical TV movies* without caring about if no-one watch them. Or even worse: they may do more co-productions with Italy”
* historical TV series are actually a good thing on public channels IMO, but France2 has this strange habit to let direct Joseé Dayan them with Jeanne Moreau starring….
100. I know what you mean, but I find it hard to get THAT worked up about Brown, because he is so obviously a secondrate leader. He is just dismally mediocre. A weaselly coward. A stoat of a man.
He claims to care about “Britain” but he is happy to betray Britain and the British people on the most fundamental national question of all: by not giving us the promised referendum on the EU Constitution. The referendum HE promised.
Shove yer f***ing “moral compass” up yer arse you swithering Scottish gimp.
But anyway. Who cares. He’s just a slug. The Labour party in general are just slugs. Horrible and mucilaginous blobs, inept and inverterbate liars. We all know that. They admit it. They happily confess they are liars and cheats and scum. But you don’t go into the garden and shout at slugs slugs, do you?
You just pour salt over them and go back to work.
One day in the future we will have an honest and credible government, until then I prefer to avert my face from the cup of cold vomit that is my country’s government.
Nick Robinson picking up on Cameron’s nastiness:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
There is some excellent analysis on http://www.electoral-vote.com of the outcomes of Super Tuesday, particularly on Huckabee’s postion, both now and as a future VP nomination, and on how Obama is doing in white states
107. That’ll do very nicely thanks
:)
107 - So when is nasty Sean going to reappear?
Sorry to go Blue Harpy but how does Gordon know “the public” being “increasingly repelled” - how often does he actually hear any member of the public? does he mean Balls, Alexander, Miliband and Mrs Brown or perhaps his dinner or weekend guests, or is it what the columnists say as he eagerly reads the first editions before calling up editors to complain?
No-one’s likely to say “you are a useless wally at PMQs Gordon old boy” if he asked, they would fidget a bit, glance down and mumble that PMQs aren’t what they were, haven’t watched them for ages, turn off nowdays, don’t know why he bothers.
110. Yes, I feel refreshed. Nasty Sean is now heading for the minibar.
Nice Sean is going to sing Kumbaya. It’s good to be schizo!
OOPs - two Ohio’s to Hillary she really does need moral support but not that much ….
I must give a big American HUG to Hillary and Barack they both did really well and may the best person win the nomination - you make me proud to vote for either of you - God Bless you both … and my heart and soul do out to those 48 souls who died in the Tornado’s …
All I pray for is that NO Republican wins in November - after hearing all 3 of them speak - it will mean disaster for America - only Hillary and Barack can save America …
113 European Union
(waves red rag to bull)
88- “And change the perception of their country.”
For about 5min.
And another interesting article on McCain and his funding problems on http://www.dailykos.com/.
With the caveat that Daily Kos is a very liberal Democratic site, this does point up the possibility of the McCain campaign running into some big trouble not too far down the road.
Looking ahead to the upcoming primaries and the media narrative that will form:
Feb 9th
Lousiana: 30% black, big Obama win
Nebraska: More Republican, Midwestern and few urban women, Obama win.
Washington: Pacific liberalism, wealthy and educated, Obama win
Virgin Islands: 76% black, more international, huge Obama win
Narrative: Obama winning big in the first battle since the tie on ST. Lasts one day.
Feb 10th:
Maine: New England, lots of professional women, strong Clinton win
Narrative: Clinton managed to claw something back after her big defeats yesterday. Last two days.
Feb 12th:
DC: 60% urban black, extremely huge Obama win.
Maryland: affluent, educated voters but in New England with a lot of professional women. Tight battle.
Virginia: affluent, educated voters but also urban women. Edge with Obama
Narrative: Clinton managing to keep battling but Obama is moving clear of her. Last 7 days.
Feb 19th
Hawaii: Obama’s home state. Big Obama win.
Wisconsin: Midwestern, big links with Illinois. Big Obama win.
Narrative: Obama is running away with this. Is this a procession now? Lasts 13 days.
This could mean Clinton would have to make a heck of a stand on March 4th in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island.
first time I’ve been seeing a Holyrood debate…Swinney shouting at a LD a few minutes ago
SeanT - not sure about weasels courage but stoats are as brave as, as brave as…, something that is very, very brave!
Leave stoats alone.
119. Uplifting stuff, no doubt
104- “Which speaks to role that PMQs play in building and maintaining good will and respect for UK around the globe, most esp. (but certainly not entirely) in English-speaking countries.”
Ha! Any good will and respect for the UK died when we invaded Iraq. It will take years and years to repair the dammage Blair did to our country.
I see that Hillary’s proice has eased to 0.9/1 on Betfair. Barack is now at 1.08/1
I think the reports of discussions were probably a deliberate attempt to test the temperature, rather than a firm plan.
Bit like letting Myra Hindley out for the day.
A strong incoming PM could abolish PMQ. the political class would explode but after 6 months joe public wouldn’t care. If he’d announced it after winning snap november election then we’d have forgotten about it by now.
But he isn’t a strong PM. It would just pour 10 tonnes of rocket fuel on the existing narrative. ie He’s lost it.
Re US. I agree that obama has the mo. I’m a hillary fan but the fact he has the pledged delegate lead gives him moral authority.
Its inconceivable they’d let some one get the nomination on super delegates alone. It would be like an internal florida
My feeling is if she hadn’t won california so hansomely they’d be calls for her to drop out now.
119- Isnt AS resigning today if the Scottish Budget isnt passed? Anyone have news on what is going on ‘over the border’?
118 Hillary will take it all the way to Pennsylvania, in April, if she thinks she has a chance. If Obama can build enough support that he takes Texas outright, you can call it for him right there; otherwise Hillary will suddenly discover a deep abiding love of the Amish.
122. What damage? A few fanatics who hated us before hate us a bit more. So what?
Scottish budget carried. Lib/Lab abstain, SNP and Tories support it, one ‘no’ vote.
123. Toldya. The bookies are only now catching up with the wisdom of pb.com.
Yesterday was a GOOD day for Obama, only obscured by the hype over California and Mass. The fact is he was 20-30 points behind in those states a week back, and narrowed it to tens and teens. Otherwise he did very very well - won 13 states, maybe 14. Big news. He got a solid 40 in New York - Hillary’s home state!
And now the topography of the campaign alters in his favour, financially and psephologically.
126. Budget carried. 66 in favour, 1 against, the rest abstained..or something of that sort
127 In such circumstances the Democratic candidates will have to consider.
Which is most important…
A) That they win the Democratic nomination
B) That the Democrats win the White House.
The nomination could well be a clasic Pyrrhic victory.
127. Oh, I’m sure she will. But with a month of postive Obama coverage won’t voters simply feel her time has come and gone, even if she wins? Her name recognition would not be an advantage by that point, and people would have been exposed to Obama’s “movement” and oratory much more.
Lots of voters have turned from Clinton to Obama. While Clinton has hung on to a lot, the question at this point is “does she ever win some back”? If the answer is no, then Obama’s steady progress will see him through.
128- I was thninking more of the damage to our reputaion around the world, not some Islamic terrorist nutters. We have bascialy confirmed to the rest of the world that we are nothing more than an extension of America. “Hey Britain, invade Iraq with us.” “Yes sir Mr America sir”
129. StephenB, who is the one who voted against? Any idea?
133. Even if she wins March 4th I mean.
126 - Ah, you must have been the other person watching http://www.holyrood.tv!
Andrea, I’m not sure who it was - Margo perhaps?
137. I was watching Salmond’s moves of his head whilst laughing
California results more or less confirmed:
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/rcd/all.htm
Romney wins districts 21 (by 0.4%), 52 (by 2.8%).
Tossups:
42 (McCain +0.3% with 86% counted)
49 (McCain +0.1% with 87% counted)
McCain has won the rest - most are 100% counted, or he’s miles ahead in and can’t be caught.
Being kind to poor dead Mitt and splitting the two tossups, that gives McCain 50/53 congressional districts and thus 150/159 delegates from those, and the bonus 14 for statewide winner.
End result: McCain 164, Romney 9.
Road Ahead Tough For Clinton…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/road_ahead_tough_for_clinton.html
140- So its going to be VP Huckabee then?
120. I actually have nothing against stoats. I’ve seen a stoat once, in a Sussex wood. A furtive but delightful woodland mammal.
I have also seen a weasel, a mink and a polecat. And an otter (but that was in America).
The quote “he’s a stoat of a man” is actually a direct steal from one of my favourite films - Rob Roy. A masterpiece of British cinema which we were discussing on pb.com just the other day.
You see, it all ties together. In my mind, anyway.
134. so what? that’s hardly news, is it?
144- You mean like the time we sent loads of troops to Vietnam?
88. Obama’s speaking style is easy to like when he’s making empty statements during a campaign but imagine how grating it would be if he were in power and doing something with which you violently disagreed. You’d probably hold him in the same regard as you do Tony Blair.
145. Talk about ancient history! And do you really think people around the world back then were going round saying ‘what a wonderful country Britain is, not joining the US in Vietnam’? They weren’t! And even if they had been, so what?
What do we think the chances of an attempt by the clinton camp to reinstate the delegates in Michigan and Florida? With those votes Hillary would be very handily placed. If neither candidate has a majority at the end of the primaries, which must be a real possibility, those two delegatons could make all the difference.
IIRC the ides of the “6 questions” for the leader of the official opposition is new in any case - as I remember introduced when Blair telescoped the 2 sessions a week into one. I would have thought he could declare its effect tested and found wanting - depriving others, and especially the Lib Dem leader - of fair treatment. It is also unduly gladiatorial - and he could again mention that dave’s declared aim is to remove yah boo politics. Yes, the right wing press would love to have a go, but if his reasoning is good enough he can make them look a load of yah boo artists.
141. Interesting that article put Maine in Obama’s box. I think the key states coming up are Maine, Virgina and Maryland. Clinton really needs to win two of these, certainly one. Otherwise she’s done for.
146. You mean you would rather him speak like Gordon Brown over the EU constitution? Then people wouldn’t hate him…
Five live reporting that Gordon has decided to refuse the license for the supercasino. So that will upset those in Manchester as well as those in Blackpool who think they should have got it in the first place. But the 14 smaller ones will go ahead - so it’s all right to gamble as long as too many people don’t do it in the same place.
147- Because not sending troops to Vietnam was the right decision. What has we gained that France hasnt by sending troops to Iraq? Please tell me, I would love someone to explain how having our foreign (and in some cases domestic) policy decided by Washington for the past 30+ years has had any positive effect on us? We are sidelined in Europe, are ignored in Africa/Asia, and made fun of in America for being a poodle.
148. As has been mentioned before, if it really came to that then Howard Dean would have a lot of influence. And he MUST be an Obama fan.
Still, it’s unlikely to get to the convention. I think that by May there will be a clear front runner and the Dems will want to wrap it up, especia