How will Lib Dem activists view this?
February 8th, 2008
How big a risk is Nick Clegg taking?
You don’t have to spend much time ploughing through the comments on PBC to work out that the most ferocious attacks on the Tories are not from Labour supporters but from Lib Dems. Those who work for the party in areas where the Conservatives are their main opponents are usually the most vocal - and this is reciprocated.
So how are these Lib Dem supporters going to view the statements today by their new leader, Nick Clegg, in the Financial Times saying his party “could” support a minority Conservative government after the next election.
This is getting onto tricky territory and, clearly, Clegg is using his honeymoon period to get controversial ideas out early. It’s much harder to oppose a leader in his first six months than later. Certainly his predecessor, Ming Campbell, ran into serious trouble eleven months ago when at a conference in Harrogate he gave the strong impression that there could be no deals with the Tories.
Of course Clegg attaches conditions to his comments but as the FT notes, these are fairly similar to what Cameron was saying on the weekend before Clegg’s election.
The real problem is on the ground in both opposition parties. The most highly contested seats at the next election, bearing in mind what happened last time, will be CON>LD and LD>CON marginals. Turnout will be much higher than where Labour is in contention or defending and there will be a lot more activity.
The crazy thing from both Cameron’s and Clegg’s point of view is that such fights will have zero impact on whether Labour retains its majority or not. It’s Labour seats where the battle-ground will be not the side-show of LD-Tory contests.
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Thought u might go for that Mike!
How the Daily Mash sees the Rowan ‘thing’
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/archbishop-of-canterbury-loses-mind-20080208713/
re 1. Thanks Coldstone - I hadn’t seen it
Re-posted from previous thread…
Can anyone point me to a good site (or just tell me) to see forthcoming candidates in an upcoming council by-election. (Lambeth, Vassell Ward). The Lambeth website is distinctly unhelpful still listing the previous coucillor (who has sadly passed away some weeks ago). Believe that the election is March 20th
Cameron should say that no deal could be made with the Lib Dems unless they back a referendum. If they refuse, they’re just a Labour annex in terms of a future government, if they agree, Cameron will get quite a coup especially if Labour backbenchers, seeing the prospect of a referendum actually being achieved, stand up.
So, Clegg has already conceded defeat at the next GE - good start!
Apologies for going OT so quickly, but those thinking of McCain’s VP nominee may be interested to know that Tim Pawlenty (MN Gov) is heading to Germany with McCain on that global security meeting
Make of that what you will…
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/15421611.html
Who is this Clegg fellow of which you speak?
WRT Islam, there are in fact plenty of historical instances of large Muslim populations living in countries that weren’t ruled by Muslims (eg Tsarist Russia, the Mongol Empire, Spain etc.). My understanding is that, theologically, this shouldn’t be a problem for Muslims so long as they’re not compelled by law to do things that are positively unIslamic. So, I can see no particular reason why a refusal to give legal recognition to Sharia law would be a problem for them.
As a Labour supporter, I’ve always voted LD to keep out the Tories (in Westmorland and Lonsdale. LD Maj: 267).
It appears I needn’t bother in future.
The Lib Dems should stop being defensive about a hung parliament.The strong likelihhod is that neither of the maoinpartie swill ahve an overall majority.That makes the Lib Dems and their policies highly relevant-certainly not a wasted vote at th next election.Their narrative should be as follows;”It will be for the party with the largest number of seats to have first chance of deciding what to do.Therefore we may work with either or neither of the main parties.They know where we stand- for a fairer, freer and greener Britain.The best way of voters getting that is for them to elect as many Lib Dem MP’s as possible.”
In terms of outcome if the Tories are the largest single party one would expect them to try to work with the Lib dems..Under these circumstances,it would be dangerous ( but not out of the question) for the Lib Dems to do a deal propping upLabour the party that was seen to have lost the election.
If Labour are still the largest single party then they might well approach the LIb dems.Under first past the post they would bethw winners although they will have gon backwards in termsof vote share.A tricky one to support but easier than if the Tories have most seats.And of course working with other paries does not neccessarily mean a coalition.
So Clegg is right to raise the issue and should be poniting out that to work with Laboutr wouls also require them to shift their polices.
rogerh
W
9. correction: ‘to keep the Tories out’
This lib dem activist thinks it is fine. Equidistance is the right approach - and all Clegg is doing is saying that it is the approach (I don’t read this as saying that he prefers a deal with either old party). But I wonder what Conservative activists think. They are the ones at risk of losing their dearest policies if such a government did come about. And the Tories are pretty sure that they won’t win the next election outright, and so are going to position themselves to maximise their chances of getting support.
Perhaps Clegg is attempting to defuse the “Vote Libdem, get Labour” tag. A candid overture this may be, but still rather opaque.
What ever the implications it will be seen as a warning, Libdems have always been useful tools in the past, Gordon Brown will not be happy and Mark Senior positively apoplectic.
Well done to Clegg for trying to get a bit of publicity for himself.Since his election he’s been the dampest of damp squibs.
I hope the Conservative party respond with skill agreeing to work with the Lib Dems where there is agreement ie on localism or ID cards but still beating hell out of them for their duplicity on the EU constitution vote or their irresponsible tax increase proposals
Obama’s odds keep shortening…hmm.
8. When did large groups of Muslims live happily in Spain under non-Muslims? Point me to that bit of history again, Sean F?
IIRC, the Christian Reconquista of the Iberian peninsula was accompanied by lots of blood-soaked battles and the forced emigration of Muslims to North Africa. Many of those that remained were obliged to convert, like the Jews, at the point of a sword.
Meanwhile the Tsarist rule over the Muslims south -the Caucasus - was a roiled and desperate affair, and marked by constant conflict and insurrection, cf the novels of Lermontov and Tolstoy.
China’s rule over its own enormous Muslim minority has been equally fraught. Mao inflicted severe repressions, and made imams live in pigsties.
Where I am now, inThailand, there is an armed Muslim insurrection in the minority Muslim south. It’s a terrible war, with many beheadings.
The Mongols butchered Muslims in their tens of thousands, as they did anyone else. Not exactly a good example.
About the only example of “peaceful” coexistence between a large Muslim minority and a host community is India, but even there you have an ongoing war in Kashmir, constant terrorism, near nuclear stand off with Pakistan, and the election of evermore nationalist Hinduist governments in reaction to Muslim violence.
Essentially the history of minority Muslim coexistence with host communities is terrifyingly depressing. Muslims are fine when they govern, and when their minorities accept 2nd class citizenship (”dhimmitude”), but the supremacist militancy of Islamic belief and thought makes it very difficult for Muslims to live under the rule of “kaffirs”.
I’m with Don on the last thread. We should tell Muslims in Britain that they are welcome to live here as long as they totally accept British laws - in their entirety. The UK is a Judeo-Christian country, with all that entails, and that is a fact Muslims simply have to acknowledge.
They must have known this when they moved to Britain. The trouble is the left encouraged them to think they could bring their culture with them, lock, stock and burqa.
Meanwhile, those Muslims who wish to pursue beliefs and practises we find objectionable - the subjugation of women, for example, the abuse of Jews, the reviling of gays - are of course free to move to Islamic countries. Preferably sooner rather than later.
I thought Cameron’s Conservatives recently adopted the principles of Lib Dem taxation policies, Malcolm (14).
In fact, the Tories have taken on board so much of Lib Dem policy in an attempt to change their image, that they might as well come clean and admit that, in the event of a hung parliament, they will implement the Lib Dem manifesto, provided only that Cameron can be Prime Minister.
OT does anyone think Hillary has a chance in Washington State tomorrow?
16. Actually, SeanT, after the Reconquista, many Muslims stayed in Spain for another 200 years. The Alcazar at Seville, for example, is a “Christian” building, but built by Muslim architects and builders. However, the main thrust of your argument is correct.
I suspect Clegg is looking at the result of the 1923 election, in which an incumbent Tory government lost its majority but remained the largest party. The Liberals, as they then were, voted Baldwin out in a confidence motion and really then had no option but to support the first minority Labour administration.
Suppose Brown loses his majority but still has more seats than Cameron. Either he seeks a vote of confidence, as Baldwin did, or he just resigns. In the latter case, the Queen has no choice but to ask Cameron to form a government, and Clegg really has to support it. The alternative is constitutional chaos.
So in one sense Clegg is just stating the obvious, and as Mike says, better to do so now rather than later.
However, it doesn’t matter, because my Apocalyptic Scenario is going to come to pass anyway
18 - Well she is on the ballot so she has a chance.
19. Sure - but I didn’t say there weren’t any Muslims remaining in Spain.
I just said that many left - “the Moor’s last sigh” - and those that remained were either forced to convert or regarded as contemptible infidels, by the Inquisition etc. Not exactly the Ken Livingstone model of multiculturalism.
Yokel @ 18.
I agree with SSI’s analysis from yesterday that Washington state is an Obama win. However you may find this article on Hillary’s visit to Seattle of value.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004170952_webclinton07m.html
Absolutely no surprise. Huhne was the ‘do a deal with Labour’ candidate. Clegg was the ‘do a deal with Cameron’ candidate.
If the polls stay roughly where they are then expect Nick Clegg to be serving in a Cameron cabinet within two years, along with David Laws (who George Osborne has an almost homoerotic obsession with).
And forget Cameron demanding that the Lib Dems vote for a referendum on Lisbon as the price. He’d never box himself in like that. Any more than Clegg would make his participation conditional on PR.
It’s a bold move from Cleggy, not least since all the trouble Ming caused by declaring what he’d do in a hung parliament. However I don’t see Brown, or more importantly, Cameron (since he’s not actually in office at the moment) openly discussing their strategy in a hung parliament.
My guess is Clegg wants to undo the damage Ming caused by effectively saying he was a candid friend of the government and would support them in a hung parliament (that was the impression the public got, anyway). However whilst I’m sure Clegg will be very cautious in what he says, the way the media reports it may be quite different and he must be aware of this.
It’a about ishooos as Viscount Stansgate would say.
Clegg and the Lib Dem position is clear ‘we are campaigning for the following policies - no ID cards, green tax switch, repeal of illiberal legislation etc and we’ll vote for that in Parliament. Now if some other party or parties also support these things then they will get our support, if not…’
16: Sean, large minority groups have tended to have conflicts with the majority regardless of who they are.
16. Most of Spain was reconquered by 1250, and the recongured areas contained a large Muslim population. They really only began to suffer persecution in the Fifteenth Century.
WRT Russia, there is a large Muslim population in Russia proper, not just in the Caucasus. Many of the Tatars and steppe peoples had converted to Islam, and were incorporated into the Russian Empire in the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries.
WRT the Mongols, they certainly slaughtered thousands of Muslims, but they slaughtered any people that defied them (the Chinese and Tanguts suffered just as horribly). They were, however, religiously tolerant, and the large Muslim population within their Empire was free to practise their religion.
But my general point was that, historically, Muslims have not needed to be governed by Sharia law to be able to practise their religion.
Nick Clegg has said he supports ‘a focus on civil liberties, education reforms, the environment and more local decision-making’ and the FT is equating that to ‘Lib Dems have enough common ground to work with the Tories’. That is all this amounts to. The argument, of course, begins with the question of how much common ground there actually is.
Clegg’s making two substantial speeches today. One to the Guardian Public Services Summit, focusing on mental health (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7233169.stm). One on the economy, in the City of London, of which no doubt more later.
22 - apropos to this, you may find the following interesting:
http://www.meforum.org/article/1763
It suggests that, statistically, Islam and democracy simply don’t co-exist.
54. (previous thread)
Yes Peter. Been very busy last few weeks, all worth it now!
On the Clegg situation I think it’s entirely reasonable. Just like the Campbell situation where he set out his points for Labour for a possible future coalition, these ‘demands’ will never be fulfilled by the Tories ’cause they are liberal policies, something that Cameron likes to talk about but doesn’t have a clue about.
24. I think any coalition would be dependent on PR with either party.
This Lib Dem member also thinks it’s fine. Equidistance has to be the main theme, but with an emphasis on distancing ourselves from Labour. What helped us in 1997 (and 2001) was that we were seen as one of the ways of kicking out Tories, so benefitted from the strong desire to get rid of them after 18 years. If there anything like the same desire for change at the next election, we need to be seen as one of the ways of kicking out Labour, which would allow us to capture LD/Lab marginals while neutralising any urge to replace LD MPs with Conservatives in LD/Con marginals.
Overall, “help us to kick out Brown” is likely to be more of a winner than “vote for us and we might help Brown to cling on”.
Having said that, though, the chances of being able to choose who to support are much slimmer than the chances of a hung parliament. It’s far more likely that only one combination would be able to produce a majority.
21,23. Shes at 5 on Betfair. before recent events Hillary was doing ok there and if her support base was robust I suppose there is a chance.
What I cant find is much depth of information.
Where’s Mark Senior? I thought this would be right up his street!
I think its essential in the case of a hung parliment that the Libs do a solid deal with the largest party. If we have a second election soon after then they will get a massive squeeze as voters will seek a clear winner.
Sounds a good idea to me and I thoroughly support it. LD and Tories work together in local government (but with the rubbish rotting in the streets of Birmingham wyou wonder how effectively). The idea that the LDs could support a government which had been rejeced by the voters is ludicrous.
14 Is a 4p in £ reuction in standard rate income tax an irresponsible tax increase?
rogerh
Yes I see it now:-
David Cameron standing in front of the podium in Downing Street, (a grinning NC beside him) ‘After forthright discussions with my new foreign secretary, Nick I’m pleased to announce the country has a new government. As Liberal Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, who have so much in common, have agreed on a programme.
That new programme of course involves us being at the, Heart of Europe’ so its forward to the Euro, and a federal state, and of course PR…..
The Death of John Redwood has been announced, spontaneous combustion is a very rare, but not unknown cause of death…..
from previous thread…
65. Some clear explanations of the practicalities of delegates and superdelegates.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23034102/
17.Is that a fact Tressage? Please tell me when the Conservative party has ever argued for the tax increases the Lib Dems have or agreed to local income tax etc etc etc.
Another reason for Clegg cuddling up may be that he saw what happened post Labour loss in Scotland. Propping up Brown for another 4 years would not be a popular move..
The impression that I have of Cameron’s Conservative Party policy, Malcolm (41) - and of course all anybody can have is a vague impression - is that they are in favour of maintaining the existing overall level of taxation (tick), though increasing the level of taxation on those who pollute most (tick). They also went for increasing the level at which inheritance tax starts (tick). I don’t think they have any other tax policy, do they?
So Cameron’s Conservatives are starting to fall into line behind (and long after) the Lib Dems.
And Council Tax? Cameron’s Conservatives have as yet no idea what to do about this. After all, it was they who introduced it, to replace their failed Poll Tax, which they brought in to replace the discredited Rates. The Tories winge a lot about Council Tax, but they do not have any policies or solutions, do they? So they could easily line up behind the Liberal Democrats on this issue as well.
It’s all about playing the game isn’t it, Labour seem to have this unwavering belief that no matter what happens they’ll get back in to power, either through an ever so slight majority or coalition with the Lib Dems. Lib Dems need to take some of their bargaining power back by making Labour realise that the party most compatible with Lib Dem ideals are the ones they will coalesce with…and right now that is most certainly NOT Labour.
i think cameron should quickly rebut any coalition idea with the liberals, with something along the lines off ‘we cant see ourselves at this point in time working closely with a party who are unable to kept pledges made to the electorate. A party which refuses to honour its promises made to the people is not a party we wish to engage with’
then at the next GE tories can use the campaign slogan ”dont let gordon ‘Nick’ the next 4 years”
43. As a Con supporter I would scrap the council tax and have a local sales tax replacing the VAT that is collected by HMG and returned to councils in grants. Would encourage councils to keep the rate competitive and they would be free of the government grant. Deprived areas could have a low rate to attract mail order businesses etc to set up in their area to creat jobs.
With reference to the previous thread, if the DNC would like me to arbitrate, here is my ruling.
1. Florida and Michegan state Democratic parties ruled themselves out before the voting began. Tough. There delegates don’t count and no appeal will be accepted.
2. The people must decide the nomination. Otherwise what was the point of all these Primaries and Caucuses? The result will go to the candidate who achieves the most state delegates. Super delegates votes will be apportioned in the same ratio as state delegates.
3. There are 3253 state delegates. Whichever candidate achieves a majority of these will be declared the winner. So 1627 is the number required. As each candidate has about 900 delegates so far and there are about 1400 left to play for then the winner is likely to be the candidate who secures the majority of the remaining state delegates.
There. Job done!
20. The Liberals surely won’t make the same idiotic mistake as they did in 1923. They put Labour in with the full hope and expectation they would FAIL as a Government. This they duly did, but at the October 1924 “Red Scare” election, the Liberals got the blame, and the voters flocked to the Tories as the safe option.
Result: Liberals terminated as a potential party of government….
The LibDems are more likely to sit on their hands if the Tories end up narrowly ahead, but Labour are more likely to do a deal if they are ahead.
Reason? If Labour loses its majority, Brown will calculate the tide is flowing away from him and another election is likely to accelerate the trend. Conversely, why on earth would the Tories want to do a deal with the LibDems if the tide is flowing strongly their way?
46 - As a bit of a radical I would turn the taxation premise on its head from a system of national taxation with local addenda, to one of local taxation with a small national umbrella. It would necessarily involve a radical shakeup of local governance and would push accountability and power downwards.
NOOOOOOOOOOO! Clegg you fool. Great, now the media narrative goes on who Lib Dems will support in co-alition, rather than our policies, while Labout go vote Lib Dem = Tory. Triffic.
Offer a politician the chance of power, and they’ll make a bonfire of any previous statements and promises. You can bet your life the reason for entering into a coalition with those you’ve previously opposed, will be a patriotic one.
‘The country demands that we form a government’ or ‘We owe it to the country to give it a stable government’
Scotland is the place to watch, its becoming obvious that the Scottish Tories, are beginning to realise there is no future for them as part of an, ‘English Party.’
With the Scottish Tories cuddling up to the SNP, how long will it take for them to declare for independence? When they do that, then everything will start to change.
First cuddling up to Brown, now trying to fumble towards the Tories….Clegg gives the impression he is ‘leading’ a directionless party. He really hasn’t made much of a start, and come the election the Lib Dems risk being seen as an irrelevant sideshow. Without Iraq, they simply lack any defining characteristic.
P.S. In all fairness Clegg didn’t mention co-alition, but supporting a government, which are two very different things. Now it’s been done am looking forward to Cameron’s response.
[49] Won’t work. A fifth of our national wealth is created (well, that’s what they tell me) in the City of London.
The problem for Clegg is that in most LD-Con marginals that the LDs hold, they only do so because Labour voters back them to keep out the Tories. If he overtly suggests he’d support a Tory government, he will lose a good deal of those votes to the Greens or to abstainers.
However, this FT story is far too subtle for most voters. If he wants to make a serious move he has to be much more explicit. He needs to come out with something along the lines of: “Labour has failed, utterly, and it must be the Liberal Democrats’ mission to bring down this overmighty, illiberal government. We will fight to win a majority ourselves, but if this is not possible, we will join all anti-Labour forces in ensuring that New Labour is consigned to history, and that Britain can have a more liberal future.”
re 38 Roger H. What about doubling the tax rate for those on low incomes, the very poorest in society - is that what you became a Labour supporter for?
54. It would ‘work’ - the issue would be that there would have to be an acceptance of quite stark divides in the scope of local government spending in different areas.
But such variation might not be wholly a bad thing - decades of large scale transfers to ‘deprived’ regions haven’t shown much sign of reversing their relative deprivation. A cold shower might be more effective.
At one level Clegg is stating the obvious - if the Tories were to adopt large chunks of the LibDem programme, why shouldn’t they form a coalition? In practice, however, compromises unpleasant to both sides would be needed, and he will need to go further to make it a realistic option.
The snag about majoring on this is that lots of LD MPs really depend on Labour tactical votes (if I wasn’t a party member I’d certainly consider voting LD in somewhere like Lewes), and if they think voting LD will simply underpin a Tory government their reaction will often be like Gabble’s above. Moreover, it only arises in the case of a hung parliament with a Con-LD majority, which is certainly possible but far from the only outcome, so not worth risking lots of seats for that one scenario.
I think Clegg needs to make it clear that it’s a possibility, as he’s just done, so that the party doesn’t have apoplexy if it arises, but not actively campaign on it. Similarly if Labour falls just short of a majority with the Tories 50 seats back, a Lab-Lib deal should not be ruled out, on a similar basis of policy compromise.
47: stjohn, in point 1 you insist on the Democrat party rules even though they disenfranchise not just the state leaders but all Democrat voters in two key states, and in point 2 you propose to revoke them, by retrospectively mandating all superdelegates who were chosen on the basis that they had freedom of choice. Both viewpoints are viable but you can’t really claim consistency…
55. Baskerville is right, but Clegg could leave open the possibility of working with Labour by calling on Labour to change. “Gordon Brown’s Labour Party is neither progressive nor liberal. But we want a liberal government, and if either the Conservatives or Labour can show us that they really understand the importance of localism, internationalism, civil liberties, a fair tax system and a fair voting system, we will be prepared to work with them.”
To be honest Cameron and Clegg are virtually indistinguishable. Clegg is better looking, Cameron a better dresser. That’s about it. Both are desperately trying to claim the centre ground held so proudly by Blair, and which Brown is flummoxing around with because he is so unappealing.
UK politics is about as boring as it could ever be. Bip and bop leading the Tories and LD, and a hapless PM trying to keep Labour in the centre ground.
To quote our friend seanT- a big Yawn all round, with a cynical “who gives?”
As a Tory, I want nothing to do with a party incapable of keeping its promise about a referendum on the EU.
54 - Most power is centralised in London so wealth will be made where power is held and can be influenced. Spread the power around and the money will spread around as well.
55. Hello Baskerville, hope all is well.
At the moment I would say that rather than your narrative, it certainly isn’t the case that Labour are anymoreuntouchable than the Conservatives from a Lib Dem point of view. At the moment I think it is a ‘plague on both your houses’ approach unless they change their ways. As I said above, I think this is balancing with Ming’s ‘tests’ for Gordon Brown.
As for the terminology of ‘propping up’ a Labour government should that ever happen it’s just not true. A coalition government is a different government from a majority one no matter who is involved.
Upper Beeing Parish Council
Joyce Shaw (Ind): 297
Donna Bailey (BNP): 277
Becky Davoubi (Ind): 196
Wilts CC-Trowbridge East
Con 1363
LD 1176
Green 229
Turnout 19.2%
Con gain from LD
Wilts CC-Holt and Paxcroft
Ind 1075
LD 994
Con 458
Lab 53
Ind 45
Turnout: 37%
Ind gain from LD
The Lib Dems only chance of becoming one of the two biggest parties is to target Labour seats (more of them and the ‘fed up of Labour effect’)and so cosying up to Labour makes no sense, they wouldn’t win those seats. Yes the Lib Dems rely on tactical Labour votes for some of their exsiting seats but they have to risk losing those if they really want to make a surge. Of course perversely in order to appeal to Labour voters that may mean positioning themselves away from the Tories. Thats why civil liberties and environment are good policies to focus on because they allow Clegg to squae this circle. Possibly.
32 - Cameron will never accept PR. 95% of the Conservative Party is militantly against. Clegg knows that. He also knows that he will never be a Lib Dem cabinet minister unless he does a deal.
Ergo, he will put PR on the back burner and most Lib Dems will accept that.
64. The Holt & Paxcroft division is in the new Chippenham constituency. Trowbridge East is in Wiltshire South West constituency
62. You coming round to federalism then James?!
It’s a very good point about money etc. But it applies to things like the public sector as well. If you want to get anywhere in my department you have to go to London for at least a time. Why should you have to? Because everything nationally is based there. In these days of electronic communication there is no need for any except the very highest goverment officials to be based in London. Move the rest out of the capital & around the country. The situation as it is is a stark reminder of how centralised this country is.
63 - Yes a coalition is different to a majority government and that is the case against PR. The power lies in the back room with the stitch-up merchants, no-one votes on the shape of the coalition. The election is a subordinate affair to the subsequent negotiations. It is effectively anti-democratic.
66. Give him two inconclusive elections in a row (which is the way I think we’re going) & a realisation that FPTP makes it very difficult for the Conservatives to ever get a majority then he’ll come ’round.
The way Gordo is going the next election will not be inconclusive…
39. Coldstone, should the Tories form a coalition with the Lib Dems, I think Redwood’s spontaneous combustion would be more than likely. They’d be no need for conspiracy theories.
64. Lib Dems ‘losing here’ in Wiltshire…
70 - Spoken like someone who has no understanding of Conservative Party realities.
70, it’s too early to say how the next GE will go, but I’d be very surprised if the one after next (probably in 2014-2015) were inconclusive.
Doesn’t surprise me that Clegg has said this. He clearly has a lot more in common with Cameron than Brown. Not least Clegg and Cameron actually appear tp be sane, rational people.
58. Nick. I don’t claim consistency I claim omnipotence. This Wisdom of Solomon thing is going to my head.
1. I agree the electorate of Michegan and Florida have been disenfranchised. This is because the Democrat party leadership of those two states broke the national party rules and timetable for the election. The state electorates of Michegan and Florida should be furious with their state party leadership. But a ruling was made before the voting started which both remaining candidates in the election accepted and it should stand. I give leave to the Democratic electorate of these two states to seek recourse from their state leaderships.
2. My second ruling is based on my understanding of historical precedence. The “freedom of choice” the superdelegates possess appears similar to the freedom of choice that the House of Lords has to overturn the will of the House of Commons or that our monarch has to overturn the will of Parliament. They can do it in theory but they will be voting themselves out of existence.
My ruling is final and I will brook no further appeals.
95% of the Labour party is militantly against PR. I suspect that mere detestation between the tribes will be overcome by the more intense hatred they both feel for the Lib Dems, and a deal of some kind between Labour and Conservative will be made.
69. Obviously as I am all for PR I would disagree. The mindset is different if you are voting in a PR election. You are voting for an ideal & the potential implementation of your policies & that by voting for your party of choice you are giving them more of a chance of those policies being implemented. PR is democratic as it gives the people the parliament they voted for. From that point of view it geatly empowers the parliamentary scrutiny over the executive.
FPTP is on the other hand ludicrous. A majority of 66 on 36% of the vote?
Smart politics by Nick Clegg. There’s less danger of Labour saying “Vote Lib Dem Get the Tories” than of the Conservatives saying “Vote Lib Dem Get Labour”, since a Tory government leavened by the Lib Dems would be appealing to quite a large slice of the electorate, while the current Government is supported with a sigh even by its own voters. I suspect the smelling salts are being passed around in a lot of Lib Dem households, mind.
[51] - “With the Scottish Tories cuddling up to the SNP, how long will it take for them to declare for independence? When they do that, then everything will start to change.”
Probably the best way to see off the SNP ‘threat’. There is some internal tension within the SNP between those who primarily see it as a slightly more left-wing alternative to Labour and those who want to be a patriotic friend to Scottish business.
The Scottish Tories coming out for Independence would blow apart the myth of an independent red Scotland.
77 - (brooking an appeal :-)) These “superdelegates” are not really analogous to the House Of Lords. They have their positions mostly through elected office as Democrats and many will have first-hand knowledges of the contenders and their strengths and weaknesses. Furthermore they will have to work with the next President (from either side) and can make a decision from that perspective.
I agree it would be verging on the undemocratic for them to “overturn” a substantial majority of elected delegates but I think they are more than entitled to make their own individuals minds up if we have say 53-47 or closer.
Generally, with the exception of caucuses, I think the Democratic delegate system is very sensibly designed.
78. Seeing as they seem to have more in common right now with each othere than they do with the Lib Dems, you could be right…
75. If there were a hung parliament & the Lib Dems did not go into coalition with either minority party (& they didn’t do a grand coalition) I think it would be likely that there would be another election within a year, which would again be inconclusive. RodCrosby’s the man to see about how hard it is for the Tories to win an outright majority with FPTP.
74. If that were the case (& I do know how resistant many Tories are to PR) then Cameron would need to roll out Michael Brown, who is one of the few strident believers of PR in the Conservatives.
A lot of the discussion about hung Parliaments assumes the Lib Dems are likely to face a choice of a partnership with Labour or the Conservatives.
In fact, the maths of hung Parliaments means that unless Labour and the Conservatives are very evenly matched in seat numbers, that is not the case. Most hung Parliament scenarios are not like that - the third party can only give one other party a working majority. The choice is generally deal (with the larger party) or no deal.
Clegg is quite right. There are big policy differences and personality clashes with both other parties. But what you do is sit down with the one that won more votes in the preceding election (who has in some sense won the chance to try to lead a government) and negotiate in good faith to see whether you can arrive at either a formal coalition or, failing that, a looser arrangement whereby they will let them form a minority government, don’t bring them down but pick and choose on issues.
63. I’m well thanks, Khunanup. One great feature of the PB.com party was the surprising ease with which Tories and LibDems could chat about the most important and controversial issues without sinking into the normal abuse. Well on Rugby League, anyway!
82. Clap that man in irons and send him to the Tower forthwith!
As a Conservative candidate in a close Lib Dem/Con marginal I think what Clegg has done is a gift to me, I am thrilled; thank you, Nick.
1) Here in Torbay at least two thirds of the local Liberal Democrats are Labour sympathisers who joined the Lib Dems as the best way of keeping us out; they aren’t going to work their nuts off trying to keep their man in office if when they do their party simply slot into a Cameron government.
2) Voters will work out that if you want to change the Government why vote for the Lib Dem in a close Lib Dem/Tory marginal when you can vote for the Conservative original offer?
77 LOL !
I actually agree with you, StJohn. If the Party Leaders are going to play silly bug*ers, then soddem. And may their members take suitable revenge.
As for the superdelegates, they too had better tread very warily. They may be theoretically independent, but if they thwart the clear wishes of the electorate, they too will deserve everything they get.
Interesting responses from some of our Tory posters here - which just go to show how cunning Clegg’s gambit is.
They show the Tory Party in its true (unchanging) colours.
It is all for nothing that Cameron has been doing his utmost to represent the Tories as new-born Liberals. As soon as there is a hint that Cameron might be forced by the voting system to accept and implement real liberal policies, along comes the Tory Old Guard. The key issue for them is Europe, of course, but there are others.
So the question is now clearly thrown into Cameron’s lap. Precisely what Lib Dem policies would he be prepared to introduce? And how can he take his Old Guard with him?
Nick Clegg wins this round, I think.
89, are you a Lib Dem, perchance?
You can’t really say who ‘wins’ this round until you hear Cameron’s response, surely?
Hopefully he’ll use the referendum issue, as I and others here have suggested.
89 Most voters aren’t interested in what Tory activists post here. People who vote Conservative do so in the expectation that they are voting for a conservative party.
68 — Northern MPs and councils should be campaigning for new ecotowns to be built there, and for much of the existing housing and infrastructure to be refurbished.
You can’t do construction over the web, so you’d get a genuine boost for regional economies. New housing can attract and retain graduates and others priced out of the housing market, in turn leading to sustainable communities with professional, skilled and unsilled jobs.
Social engineering has failed. Civil engineering: that’s the key!
85. Indeed. Our season starts against HKR on Sunday, your boys gave Leeds a good scare last weekend.
Saw your pal Penny at the count yesterday. She was very quiet & I suspect she’d be fuming that the Conservatives campaign was so inept.
Ah, Marcus (87). Nice to see you. Is the state of affairs in the Tory local government camp in Torbay really as dire as is portrayed?
89. Ooooh - who made you the scorekeeper ?
87. I see you’re still living in your dream world Marcus. According to most other people this favours Labour (if anyone) but for our Marcus it’s a gift for the Tories & him in particular!
People in seats like yours vote more for people not parties, which explains alot methinks…
94 portrayed by who?
Marcus, just looked on your website old boy. West Bank’s in Israel now is it? A statement of support for the Israeli occupation perhaps?
96. “People in seats like yours vote more for people not parties” I love people who contradict 200 years of accumulated political wisdom without a shred of evidence.
If that were true then there would have been many more than the handful of totally independent MP’s who have been ever been elected.
A *tiny* percentage of even well known MP’s vote is a personal vote, as any popular, well-liked, hard working etc, ex-MP will tell you.
Can someone provide me with something to support the odds of Hillary at 5.6 and Obama at 1.06 on Betfair for the Washington caucus?
100 Nope.
99 I seem to recall you were saying it was a gift to you in your constituency when Ming was accused of cosying up to Labour but now you seem to be saying the opposite .
100 - Obama has won all caucuses to date quite convincingly? Would certainly expect him to be the favourite, but 1.06 seems unduly tight.
pudsey F “Where’s Mark Senior? I thought this would be right up his street!”
Mark is probably in deep, deep shock and lying down in a dark room.
103. Nevada…
Portayed by whom, Marcus (97)? It is an impression that I have, reinforced by news from Westphalia on Sea. I know that its authors disclaim that their blog is a representation of any particular place, but there do seem to be so very many similarities with Torbay.
In Westphalia, the Tory PPC (Charlie Windsor) is now hardly on speaking terms with the Tory elected mayor, who is just about at his wits end trying to make a positive impression on the place. And all his initiatives are met with general derision on the part of the public, who are increasingly sceptical about the vast sums paid to consultants.
It is all pretty dire for the Tories in Westphalia.
So I naturally wondered how you saw the totally-Tory-controled local government of Torbay, Marcus.
Naturally.
As a Lab supporter have to say I agree with Gabble, Nick P and Marcus - no way would I vote LD if it was going to help them prop up a Tory govt, whereas, in the absence of any such agreement, I’d always vote tactically to keep Tories out. Also the idea that 95% of Labour supporters don’t support PR is surely wrong - I support PR - and not because I forsee any tactical advantage for Labour - but because I think it’s fairer and more democratic.
Bit busy at work till 3 30 HF . The Trowbridge reult was disappointing but I forecast the Ind gain in the Holt/Paxcroft seat and expected the Ind majority to be a bit higher .
Some press reaction to Clegg’s “I don’t rule out” comments.
I am glad to see that as ever the Lib Dems have scythed to the very heart of the complex political issues I raised at 87 and answered my points so comprehensively…
As it happens I think Cleggs move will work in his parties favour overall, as in the Northern Labour marginals where there is still resistance to Cameron this will play very well and could encourage tactical voting in favour of LD candidates by Conservatives.
Marcus argues (87) that he welcomes this move by Clegg essentially because it will unwind Adrian Sanders’ tactical vote and why vote for him when you can get Wood’s real thing.
But the trouble with this bit of spin is that the Conservatives have been campaigning for years with the opposite line of “vote Lib Dem, get Labour”. Now either Marcus thinks that his party has got the campaigning wrong for years (and presumably he has been doing something else in Torbay) or he is whistling to keep his spirits up. You can’t have it both ways, Marcus!
I think we are in danger of overemphasising the importance of this, frankly we are aware of it because by and large we are a bunch of politics anoraks. Most people wouldn’t be able to tell you the name of the Lib Dem leader or point him out in a line up. That probably goes for the Conservative leader too and to a lesser extent the PM. In any case given past performance the Lib Dems will probably be looking for a replacement by this time next year!
I might just add that one of the interesting aspects of this is that it could potentially unseat Nick Clegg himself. A lot of his votes are on loan to him from Labour supporters.
106 Tressage, confirming your hopes about Torbay from a spoof blog written by the Lib Dems is a good idea if it makes you happy; but not if you want to really know what is going on.
105 - Apologies… Point Taken. Looking at Wiki seems to suggest no large Black population (4%), but no large Hispanic either (9%). Almost half the population live in the Metropolitan Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue (and presumably more than half the Democrats by some margin). As this is therefor similar to Urban white areas… how have the candidates done amongst this demographic previously?
113. Sadly not. There are few Labour voters in Hallam.
But that was why I asked you for your opinion, Marcus (14). And so far you have not said what you think of the 100% Tory local government administation in Torbay.
So I have my suspicions that the “spoof” Westphalia on Sea blog is not so far from the truth.
Is it really written by Liberal Democrats? I had not realised that. It does not say so. I thought John Farrell (Labour) was behind it. It is very entertaining anyway.
116. Not many votes, but that’s because many Labour supporters who live in leafy west Sheffield - and believe me there are a lot - vote LD, because they love not having a Tory MP, after years of it being a safe Tory seat. It all changed in 1997 - but the LDs captured the seat because of massive tactical voting by Labour supporters. A friend of mine - a Labour Party member - was canvassing their before 1997 and told all the Labour party people he met to vote LD.
re 64 there was a report on the radio on Upper Beeing parish council earlier this week - the first contested election in decades. I thought the BNP candidate was standing as an independent as well and it was only her opponents who made reference to her BNP past?
More significant has been the switch among former Conservatives. The Conservativew won 46% in 1992, 29% in 2005. The Labour percentage hasn’t shifted that much over that period. The Lib Dems went from 33% to 51% over that period.
Sheffield Hallam is easily the poshest seat in the whole of the North of England, and doesn’t have a large natural Labour vote.
The EU is getting desperate. The ‘I want a referendum’ campaign combined with the Gang Of Four Labour rebellion is looking terminal for Labour’s chances of holding together as an electoral entity. Signing Lisbon without the promised referendum looks like handing Cameron a big lead.
If the Conservative get elected with enough seats, they will engage in a renegotiation with Brussels, probably with partial withdrawal on their list of demands.
The EU needs the Conservative neutralised as soon as possible. Agent Clegg’s got his orders and he’s lining up to offer a deal to Cameron. It’s all a bit desperado. The election’s two years away.
115, From what I gather women potentially dominate again over men in the State in terms of potential caucus goers. The problem is getting them out. Women are Hillary’s big strength so far
The white male vote so far seems to be split relatively evenly.
There is the reasonably big student population which so far seems to have went for Obama, if they could be bothered.
Democratic reliables, the core types appear to have trended to Clinton, the older, poorer and so on.
State profiles that I’ve read seems to suggest that its quite a pragmatic state it could be wide open. The key issue with caiucuses is the motivation factor. Its a fraction of a fraction.
I cannot see Cameron being interested in a LibDem coalition in the event of a hung parliament after the next election. He will have the momentum. Labour will have lost seats and it would be suicidal for Clegg to prop up a discredited government. Cameron’s best ploy would be to act as a moderate for a year, give a concession here or there and defy the other parties to vote popular measures down, and then go to the country again.
I think the Libdems have peaked. Their seats north of the Central Lowlands in Scotland are very susceptible to the SNP, the Tories are resurgent in southern England and I have yet to see much evidence of a long-term shift in their favour in Labour areas. Clegg’s comments are a sign of his weakness. In the past, they have avoided mention of a coalition because near an election the voters will want to know (rightfully) which of the main parties the LibDems favour and the exact terms under which they will join a coalition. Now that Pandora’s box has been opened he will need to answer those questions. I can see Paxman having field day come 2010.
Washington state poll shows Obama with a 13-point lead over Clinton, rising to 22% of those who will definitely vote…
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=74221038-6d06-4283-bfd3-6054dcc54677
121. ‘Agent Clegg’s got his orders’..I like it. Probably more like Corporal Clegg in terms of his effectiveness though
:)
125. lance corporal clegg ‘dont panic!’
117 I think it is very funny too; so does Nick (the mayor). My opinion is writ large across my own blog in twice weekly updates, but just for you:
Things are going brilliantly now that we have a Tory council. There is a very great deal of public welcome for the Mayoral Vision, there are hopes that our bypass might finally be built, we are about to have the lowest tax rise for a generation, our council have started on the extensive rebuilding works of the seafront and Rock Walk, the council has been upgraded by the audit commission to it’s highest ever rating.
120 Are you sure about 1992? Haven’t got the figures to hand, but I think there was quite a significant Labour vote then, though there were boundary changes between 92 and 97, and Nether Edge was taken out of the constituencey - and consequently a lot of Labour votes left it. Yes, it is certainly one of the most prosperous constituencies not just in the North, but in the whole of the country. However, it is University dominated - added to which a lot of higher-level public sector workers live there - and it is of course, still in Sheffield - a city that is culturally Labour.
124. At last a survey to read.
That closes that possibility, since Survey USA often had Clinton well ahead in Super Tuesday state polls.
I think I can stop pondering.
Rodhi Morgan has confirmed that he will step down on his 70th birthday: 29 September, 2009.
How many LD Tory coalitions are there at the monment, relative ot LD Labour? How many LD councils depend on tacit Tory votes to keep Labour at bay?
Clegg is against ID cards, fingerprinting school children - perhaps some elements of the Tories don’t like these things either. However, there may be divisions over support for a referrendum over Europe.
Does Clegg favour greater powers for local councils, does he support elections for public bodies like Health Trusts, Quangos or not? As for taxation, would he back a simplification of income tax and the tax credit system, with higher personal allowances. Does Clegg stand for a smaller state?
There could be divisions over foreign policy - Iran, Iraq.
The LDs often look like and act like a party of, for and by the middle class payroll vote. Can they do enough to show that they are more vigorous in their promotion of free enterprise?
129. Its a week old though, where have they been hiding it?
128 The 1992 notionals for Sheffield Hallam were
Con 49.6
LD 30.7
Lab 18.4%
129. The survey ended last Sunday, two days before “Super Tuesday”! I’d ignore it.
128. I expect that by 1992, the Lib Dems had already got a lot of Labour supporters voting tactically for them. They also sewed up the seat at local council level in the Nineties.
My impression that the seat that is really dominated by students and university workers is Sheffield Central, Hallam rather less so. The wealthiest parts, like Dore, are more dominated by rich businessmen and the like. Income per head here is above the London average, and taking into account the lower cost of living, that makes it very wealthy indeed. I’d probably put it in the top dozen or so, in terms of wealth.
110. If they were worth going in depth about we would. As they’re not…
Anyway, how about answering my question. Are you an expansionist Zionist?
113. John. Votes are not loaned, they are given. If someone votes Lib Dem they are a Lib Dem voter, especially if they’ve done it consistantly at both national & local elections over many years. By your logic, from our perspective, anyone who has ever voted Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem is currently merely ‘loaning’ their vote to other parties if they currently vote for a party that isn’t Lib Dem.
131. Nick Clegg is in favour of Town Hall Meetings - as long as they don’t decide in favour of policies he disagrees with. Also in favour of referendums - except on subjects where the ‘wrong result’ might occur.
An admirable commitment to decentralisation I would say.
135.”My impression that the seat that is really dominated by students and university workers is Sheffield Central, Hallam rather less so”
On old boundaries Hallam was the 10th seat for students population. However I didn’t check for new boundaries as there’s an area moved to Central (which reduce the notional Labour majority in SC along with the removal of a Labour ward)
127. In other words, you’re slashing services, still not delivered on the bypass promise, only just beginning on essential work at the seafront where costs are sure to rise & now you have the top grading the only way is down…
Adrian Sanders, increased majority!!!
135 You are right about Dore (and Totley and Ranmoor), but Hallam also includes Crooks, Hunter’s Bar and Broomhill - and they are university dominated. I suppose my point is simply that I know a lot of people who live in the constituency, who vote LD to keep the Tories out - and who remember the days of Irving Patnick only too well. These people would be horrified to think that their votes were helping to put the tories in power.
136 ‘Loaning’ is the term I use to describe tactical voting - and I stand by it. People who are natural supporters of one party who vote for another because it damages their real enemy are ‘loaning’ their support - and they will certainly withdraw the loan were that third party to identify itself with the real enemy.
134. The problem Alex is that some Super Tuesday polls were reportedly showing Obama much more up in battleground states than he was when the votes started to come in so underpolling against expectations is possible.
This survey, however is by Survey USA which was in turn showing some very favourable figures for Hillz in Super Tuesday states. Thats what makes me feel like dropping any further exploration of Hillary winning in WA.
I do not believe Super Tuesday in itself has added any more to Obama’s momentum than he had coming into it. Depending on how you view it, he did very well or he did well but failed to quite deliver on some of the pre match expectation, some of it driven by his own camp.
In some ways I’m more confused.
123 - I don’t doubt that Labour and the Tories will make mischief, and Paxman have his fun, in practice, but I do think it’s all jolly unfair on the poor Lib Dems.
They could rightfully claim to act as a Liberal, moderating influence on whatever party emerged with the most seats, leaving the decision of senior coalition partner still in the hands of the electorate.
I imagine that the media will have too much fun putting the boot in to allow such a message to come across.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7234753.stm
142 Tim, I don’t think it is ‘jolly unfair on the poor Lib dems’ to ask some pertinent questions about their intentions as they have raised the prospect of entering a coalition.
142 Funnily enough, Timothy, I cannot understand why it gets as much coverage as it does. The world has moved on since the Lib Lab pact, and the Lib Dems in particular have learned a great deal about hung/ balanced/ NOC administrations from their experience in local government. They wil