Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
February 8th, 2008
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Livingstone versus Johnson Round Up.
This is turning out to be pretty vicious contest. Ken Livingstone’s supporters are portraying Boris Johnson as alternatively, a racist, gay-bashing, bigot, or a bumbling upper-class twit. Boris Johnson’s supporters (particularly in the media) portray Ken Livingstone as running a corrupt, partisan, regime at City Hall, while pandering to the most hardline elements of the Capital’s Muslim population. It is all highly entertaining, and reminiscent of some of the most bitter political battles one sees in the United States.
So far, we have only had one worthwhile opinion poll this year, at the start of January. This showed the candidates neck and neck, with Livingstone on 45%, and Johnson on 44%. A later poll, giving Livingstone a 4% lead, had a sample size of only 240, and a margin of error of 6.5%, and can hardly be regarded as a reliable guide to voting intention.
To date, it seems to me that Livingstone’s opponents have had the better of the propaganda war. One official at City Hall has had to resign, and Lee Jasper’s position looks increasingly untenable. While there’s probably mileage in portraying Johnson as being a frivolous candidate, there is none at all , in my view, in portraying him as a bigot. Most floating voters just don’t see him as such, and such attacks alienate them. They only convince those who are planning to vote for Livingstone in any case.
However, criticism of the efficiency and honesty of Livingstone’s administration may not sway many voters. Nobody who voted for Livingstone in 2000, or 2004 did so in the belief that they were voting for an efficient administrator, and his style of government is well known from the time he ran the GLC. He is a past master of putting together coalitions of interest groups who have a strong vested interest in seeing him re-elected. The fact that he channels public money in their direction is likely to strengthen their support, not weaken it.
In my opinion, it is “Livingstone Conservatives” who will determine this election. In 2004, remarkably, one sixth of people who voted Conservative at constituency level, for the London Assembly, voted for Livingstone as Mayor. These voters represent almost 5% of the total . In the local elections of 2006, the Conservatives won 35% of the vote across London, compared to 28% for Labour. As both parties contested almost every seat in the Capital, these figures can be regarded as being close to the sort of figures the parties can expect to receive in the Assembly elections. If Johnson can persuade the Conservatives to back him as Mayor, then in all likelihood, he will pull off a narrow win. If he can’t, then Livingstone will secure a third term. Contrary to many people’s expectations, I don’t consider that voters’ second preferences will be decisive in this election.
Last night’s by-election results were mixed, with Conservatives and Liberal Democrats recording some good and bad results. The Conservative made a net loss of two seats, and independents, a net gain of two.
Wiltshire County -Trowbridge East Conservative 1363, Lib Dem 1176, Green 229
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, in what had been a safe seat.
Wiltshire County -Holt and Paxcroft, Independent 1075, Lib Dem. 994, Conservative 458, Labour 53, Independent 45. Independent gain from Liberal Democrat. I understand that the successful independent is a already a district councillor, and has a large following in the area.
Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough, Butt Lane Labour 295 Lib Dem 264 UKIP 170 Conservative 161. Labour hold. Labour will be relieved to have held a ward that they lost narrowly to the Liberal Democrats in 2007.
Great Yarmouth Borough, Bradwell South and Hopton
Conservative 457, Lib Dem 397, Labour 254, UKIP 116,Green 29. Conservative hold, but with a strong performance from the Liberal Democrats who did not contest this seat last time.
Portsmouth City, Copnor. Lib Dem 1835, Con 904, Labour 349. English Democrat 117, UKIP 56, Independent, 25. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. The swing to the Liberal Democrats was huge, and appears to centre on a proposal to close a local fire station. The Liberal Democrats now hold 20 out of 42 seats on the council.
West Devon District, Tavistock North. Lib Dem 812, Conservative 425, Green 133. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative in the marginal Torridge & West Devon constituency.
Hertfordshire County, Hapenden South West. Conservative 2161, LibDem 819, Labour 153, Green 110. An easy Conservative hold.
Wycombe District, Marlow North and West. Conservative 928, Lib Dem 382, Labour 209. Conservative hold.
East Lindsey District, Roughton.
Independent, 383, Conservative 215. Independent gain from Conservative.
Wyre Borough Victoria. Conservative 769, Labour 339, BNP 222, UKIP 151. Conservative hold.
Lancashire County, Thornton Cleveleys Central. Conservative 1536, Labour 934, UKIP 489, LibDem 220. Conservative hold.
Sean Fear - PBC’s Poster of 2007
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A good round up of yesterday’s byelections . The Trowbridge result was a poor one for LibDems , they simply seem to have failed to get out their core vote on a a very low turnout . I had correctly forecast the 2 Independent gains some weeks ago . The LibDem result in Holt in the Chippenham constituency was rather better than I had thought it would be , the LibDem vote share was unchanged from 2005 and the Conservative vote fell by around 10% .
The detailed data from the Populus poll is now on their website . The fall in LibDem support compared to their Jasnuary poll is very strange as the raw data and changes in voting intention for those who voted in 2005 is better in the Feb poll compared to the Jan poll . It appears that Populus weighting which boosted the LibDems in January went to the Others in this poll .
OT Gordon Brown has just responded to the proposals to introduce Sharia law to the UK.
He said “that woman had too much to do with the legislation while her husband was running things, she’ll no interfere with things on my watch!”
“Ken Livingstone’s supporters are portraying Boris Johnson as alternatively, a racist, gay-bashing, bigot, or a bumbling upper-class twit.”
Where would they get idea?
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/02/08/fury-over-young-tory-slave-master-pictures-86908-20312384/
http://icbirmingham.icnetwork.co.uk/birminghampost/2008/02/06/tory-apologises-for-asylum-scumbag-remark-65233-20442566/
As for Red Ken he has got himself distracted with his obsession of not letting the BNP win an assembly seat.
http://www.hendontimes.co.uk/display.var.2026648.0.bnp_hijack_is_disgrace.php
I think Boris wins narrowly.
As I stated a few weeks ago, London has to choose between a corrupt communist, a clown and a plank of wood. I’d choose the clown. At least you’ll have a constant source of amusement. This happiness will bolster productivity, boosting the economy and increasing wealth.
Well, perhaps I made up the last few sentences. But I wouldn’t choose Ken.
OT - response to #187 previous thred
The reason why WA State has both precinct caucuses and a preferrence primary is a bit complicated.
The preference primary was created by a statewide ballot initiative. It is strongly supported by both the former and current WA Secretary of State.
In contrast, both major parties in WA have never liked the preference primary. They prefer the pre-existing and continuing precinct caucus system.
However, the parties do like one thing about the preference primary.
Note that WA is a state where voters do NOT register by party. Which means the only way that the parties and partisan candidates can figure out who’s a Democrat and who’s a Republican is by IDing voters themselves, very expensive!
So the parties were able to get the legislature to require that, in order to be eligible to vote in the preference primary, voters must affiliate (if only for the day) with one or the other of the major parties. AND this information is public record.
Meaning that the parties get the list of voters who chose a party ballot. Which is worth lot more than it’s weight in gold this year.
3. Was that Scottish story some sort of strange fetish, of the type that is popular among some of our MPs?
Thanks Sean.
“Mixed” results in those by elections, but the one theme that runs through nearly all of them, is Labour not performing very well.
As far as Ken Livingstone goes, doesn’t he accuse virtually everyone that doesn’t agree with him, of racism? It may be he’s played this card one time too many, and it simply won’t wash with Boris Johnson? Mind you, I think the London Mayor election will keep everyone guessing right down to the night. Should be the highlight of this years May elections.
Great picture, looks like Ken is showing Boris the ropes (metaphorically speaking).
Of course Red Ken is using the old Stalin trick, having his funkies fill his champaign flute with ginger ale . . . and plying poor Borish with the real stuff in fond hopes of another gaffe . . .
“While there’s probably mileage in portraying Johnson as being a frivolous candidate, there is none at all , in my view, in portraying him as a bigot. Most floating voters just don’t see him as such, and such attacks alienate them. They only convince those who are planning to vote for Livingstone in any case.”
Yes, BUT in an election where turnout has been so pathetically low in the past (about 35% in the last one IIRC, for the most powerful directly elected figure in Western Europe after the President of France) there is almost as much mileage in getting your base out as there is in trashing your opponent’s. So maybe Ken is being smart.
More likely, however, is that he’s just doing what has been second nature to him at least since the early 80’s - misrepresenting and slandering his opponents.
Thanks SeanF for the usual incisive analysis.
You have made me think that Boris is pretty good value at his current odds of 7/4.
7. Labour did well in Newcastle under Lyme. The remainder of the seats were already areas of Labour weakness.
WRT accuastions of “racism” I think this is subject to a law of diminishing returns. It makes a change from accusations of “zionism” I suppose.
Main problem for Boris, he is typecast and he loves it.
It is Paddick v Livingstone v Johnson
13. Paddick is incredibly unlikely to reach the second round. So it’s a Boris v Ken matchup, with second preferences filtered in. No point in suggesting it’s a three-way race.
I still think Ken will narrowly win. To succeed, Boris needs a good GOTV operation amongst groups he would do well in, but may be unlikely to vote (students and young people, generally).
‘doesn’t he accuse virtually everyone that doesn’t agree with him, of racism?’
Yes. But in the fanatical Trotskyist mindset he exhibits, anyone who doesn’t support him is by definition racist (and sexist, homophobic and islamophobic too). So it’s no real surprise.
btw. did anyone see the weird performance by Livingstone’s ‘economic advisor’ (sic) on Newsnight? Disturbing and hilarious by turns.
14. If Johnson can hold onto the 35% or so Conservative vote on the first ballot, he’ll win.
14 - On that note, there was an amusing (sort of) item in the news today.
Seems that the young woman who did the “I love Obama” song or whatever it’s called on YouTube, etc. last year did NOT turn out to vote for her beloved last Tuesday in the New York primary.
Says she was “sick” although apparently that didn’t stop her from coming to an Obmama “victory party” that night!
“Contrary to many people’s expectations, I don’t consider that voters’ second preferences will be decisive in this election.”
Surprised to read that, Sean. I would like you to expand on that sometime, please, but not now as I have a train to catch. Do you really think that one of the candidates is going to get over 50% of the votes?
Problem for Boris on the racisim front is not what Ken says, its what Boris has said, in particular the “picininny” remark.
Personally think any politco who would use such a word is simply too stupid to be trusted with a major office. And suspect that a significant (albeit minority) fraction of Conservative and swing voters feel the same way.
OT - WA State Precinct Caucuses
Democrats have a nifty “caucus location finder” on the state party webpage. Can either enter surname & zip code OR precinct & county to find location.
Republicans also have a caucus finder, but you have to know your precinct or it won’t help you.
Note: One of the leading WA endorsers for Clinton is former state party chair, who was huge Howard Dean backer in 2004. Whereas the congressman who is leading the Obama forces was John Kerry’s state campaign chair in 2004.
19. Boris is known to be a humourist, and I expect most people who read his articles read them in that light. It would probably be different in the US.
18. I’m happy to expand on it at a later stage, but my expectation is that whoever wins on first preferences will win the overall vote.
19. A pretty clueless post that one
21 “Boris is known to be a humourist . . .”
You may notice that Will Rogers never ran for President, and that Jackie Mason has never been elected mayor of New York City.
18 - Suspect that he simply means preferences will transfer pretty much as 1st prefs were allocated - and so winning 1st prefs is guide enough.
22 - You may be right, time will tell.
A few by-election results that were missed-
Kirkburton PC, Kirkheath - LD gain from Con
Poulton with Fearnhead PC, Cinnamon Row - LD gain from Lab
Totnes TC, Town - LD gain from Ind
Trowbridge TC, Trowbridge NE - LD gain from Con
That makes it LD +4, Con -4, Ind +1, Lab -1 in total
23 He’s said all sorts of things that would sink most politicians (so has Livingstone for that matter). In both cases, they just shrug them off.
Humor is always risky business for a politico. Just ask the ghost of the late, great Mo Udall.
26 I don’t generally cover Parish or Town councils, as there’s rarely anything party political about their contests.
19, Boris has an appeal that transcends his party. Indeed, he is more popular with some non-party members than with many members of his party. His language will not have alienated his potential support base.
I have a suspicion that he might well win for broadly the reason that Morris Dancer gave in post 4: the public are in the mood for some free entertainment. Also, Ken seems to be running a leaden campaign. At New Year I’d assumed that Ken would stroll to victory. He might yet, but he needs to sharpen up his campaign dramatically if it is going to happen.
19 I rarely agree with you SSI but I suspect you are spot on here. That dreadful word will be a kind of Anti Dog Whistle to many centre left voters and those in the organised indentity politics industry. They will buy one of Polly Townbees clothes pegs and get the vote out for Ken.
With regard to the fairly vicious nature of the campaign so far i suppose its a side effect of the directly elected mayoralty. If you personify government into an individual it must have a cultural effect on campaigning.
27 - No offense to the electors of Henley-on-Thams, but your thesis really hasn’t been tested yet in Boris’ case.
23 - Will Rogers did run for president in 1928 (as a prank) and in 1932 (as a favourite son candidate).
33 - You got me “fair & square”! But my basic point still survives, methinks. But my hat is tipped your direction.
32 I’d always expect a Conservative to win Henley. But Johnson saw his vote share go up by 7.4% in 2005 (compared to a rise of 0.6% for the Conservative Party as a whole).
Looks like there’s some value on Clinton at 3.5 on Betfair to be next president.
If she does narrowly win the nomination, there’s a good chance that the doddery McCain (who might not be able to turnout out the Republican right in November) will lose to her.
There is a also a mismatch between the “Female President?” and “Next President” markets of 3.1 and 3.5 respectively.
Some extra value there too.
And, yes, I have availed myself already
35 cause? harbinger? coincidence?
BTW, really enjoy your Friday spots, always outstanding and love getting the byelection numbers. And clearly that’s ot a minority opinion with PBers.
35 cause? harbinger? coincidence?
BTW, really enjoy your Friday spots, always outstanding and love getting the byelection numbers. And clearly that’s ot a minority opinion with PBers.
34 - One of the great stars of the Ziegfeld Follies, here’s a few choice Will Rogers poliitical quotes.
“If you ever injected truth into politics you have no politics.”
“You’ve got to be optimist to be a Democrat, and you’ve got to be a humorist to stay one. ”
“Sure must be a great consolation to the poor people who lost their stock in the late crash to know that it has fallen in the hands of Mr. Rockefeller, who will take care of it and see it has a good home and never be allowed to wander around unprotected again. There is one rule that works in every calamity. Be it pestilence, war, or famine, the rich get richer and poor get poorer. The poor even help arrange it. ”
“Be thankful we’re not getting all the government we’re paying for. ”
“The more you read and observe about this Politics thing, you got to admit that each party is worse than the other. The one that’s out always looks the best. ”
And one zeroing its way through time on Mitt Romney -
“Politics has got so expensive that it takes lots of money to even get beat with. “
38. Many thanks. There was a drop when Hesseltine stepped down in 2001. Johnson had the chance to build up his own incumbency vote, which showed up in 2005.
sorry for giving folks double vision above - blaim my mouse . . . perhaps my 3 martini breakfast!
39 It’s rather reassuring that Romney’s wealth didn’t win him the nomination.
39 don’t forget this great Will Rogers quote:
“I don’t belong to any organized political party. I’m a Democrat.”
10 PtP - As I mentioned yesterday, Boris is effectively 2.25/1 on Spreadfair’s 25-10-0 market - if you take the view that he’ll finish no worse than second, which is surely the case.
yet another poll for USA - re Democrats just released
http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?storyid=35914
SSI - a poll for Wisconsin - Clinton leading. What do you think?
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_arg_wisconsin.php
The accusations against Boris Johnson aren’t just racism. He is a pretty extreme right wing neo-con on a whole range of issues. Pro-Bush (backed him in 2000 and 2004), strongly pro-Iraq war, anti-Kyoto, wants to bring back the British empire, has made claims that (in my view) fuelled homophobia, wants more payment for NHS services, has sung the praises of Berlusconi, and he says hunting was a defining political issue for him.
And that’s on top of the journalist whose beating up he was prepared to facilitate.
To me Johnson is much more in the mould of the unreformed old Tory colonels of the shires than the modern image David Cameron would like to get across.
16 Sean - pleased to hear that Ken is still standing by Lee Jasper - a sacking in April would be about right … Elsewhere, I think it’s inevitable (to use the word of the day) that more sleaze is on its way. What % of first and second preferences do you think Boris will get?
3 - So essentially the state is organising and paying for a primary that will have absolutely NO effect on the nomination. I thought Americans liked a small state and lower taxes? It also seems absurd that a candidate might win the primary on a higher turnout, but lose the caucuses and get less delegates. It seems that Americans are just as devoted to tradition as the British are. The whole nominating system is a mess as is the electoral college vote (as shown in 2000), and is in no way adapted to the realities of the 21st century. I think Larry Sabato is right and you should consider adding a few more amendments to that constitution of yours.
45. the field work looks a little old? interesting the question on obama as Veep. Is this a card clinton can play without looking desperate? If she is the first to conceed a Clinton-Obama ticket how would he respond? I suppose with deleagtes so closely matched he’d just say “No, I want to win this thing.” but if she could pull just a little ahead and people are desperate for unity?
46 when is Wisconsin? primary/caucus?
ARG had Clinton winning Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa and Obama winning New Hampshire. They did call Missouri right for Obama though, unlike some.
You pays your money and takes your choice, I wouldn’t bet on a single poll though.
46 - Even though ARG record is a bit spotty, has to be good news for Clinton.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
Indicates that Clinton has rasied $8.4m since ST, suggesting she can stay competitive with Obama, although she is also planning lots of traditional fundraisers which shows a) they are still worried and b) means she will be able to spend less time on the trail. If I were in the Clinton campaign I’d make Bill ‘fundraiser in chief’. It might attract some negative press coverage but it would keep Hillary on the trail and also demonstrate she was in charge of the campaign.
Bottom line - Whereas a couple of days ago it looked like Obama may have a significant cash advantage it looks like they will be fairly even going forward.
47 - I think Boris is about as “pro-Iraq war” as SeanT is! Not sure he was pro-Bush either. He certainly isn’t now.
54 - Good arguments, but think that your “bottom line” may be counting chickens before they’re hatched.
51. rcp says the 19th, don’t know if it is a primary or not
Bill Clinton sighting - saw an interview (forget where, but broadcast tv news) of Bill in a diner in Portland, Maine, obviously campaigning in for ME Democratic caucuses (the ME meaning both him and State of Maine).
Admited he’d gone overboard while denying he was to blame. Classic.
57 Wisconsin is primary, has been ever since 1912.
The grand daddy of presidential primaries (along with Oregon) thanks to “Fighting Bob” LaFollette.
Of interest is that there are loads of London by elections between now and May:
Waltham
Sutton
Lambeth
Brent
Camden
Haringey
Harrow
Seven must be some sort of record given that we’re only a short while off the GLA elections.
Now a Virginia poll - according to these figures Clinton is going to get thumped.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_insideradvantage_virginia.php
56 - True we’ll have to see if Clinton can maintain this rate and keep up over the next month, especially if Obama picks up momentum. However at one point it looked like Obama would have a 2 or 3 to 1 cash advantage. That looks unlikely now.
Incidentally I wonder what to make of the London breaks in the recent national polls?
WA State - one reason we have both caucuses and primaries, is because the date of our regular primary is very late. Used to be in September, seven weeks before the General election. Is now in late August.
Either way, has always been way to late for purposes of selecting national convention delegates. So the caucus system was developed for this purpose.
But lots of folks objected to the limitations of the caucuses, and urged their replacement with a primary. But this was always blocked in the legislature by the parties. So finally group got together and sponsored a voter initiative, got it on the ballot and it passed.
BUT it didn’t replace the caucus system, just establish another alongside it.
RE: cost, that was precisely the argument that presuaded the legislature to cancell the 2004 preference primary.
45 No, this is not just released. Public late last night.
46. I mentioned this on the previous thread. Wisconsin is a state Obama count on winning. But ARG polls are all over the place.
Insider Advantage has Obama 52 Hillary 37 in Virginia. Very bad for Hillary. She needs to be much closer, if not outright winning.
All in all - no clear indication.
61 - Hmm, I think both of those (Wisconsin and Virginia) are too large margins, I think they’ll be closer than that. The Washington poll from earlier looked a bit more accurate though, knowing the demographics at play there.
Superdelegates slipping away fronm Clinton?
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj–delegates-nj0208feb08,0,5374058.story
http://www.wbay.com/Global/story.asp?S=7844146
55. Boris on Bush: “You know, whenever George Dubya Bush appears on television, with his buzzard squint and his Ronald Reagan side-nod, I find a cheer rising irresistibly in my throat.”
“it may seem especially perverse for me both to think that he will win, and - on the whole - to want him to win.”
“Not only did I want Bush to win, but we threw the entire weight of The Spectator behind him.”
All from ‘Have I Got Views For You’, pub. July 2006, a collection of his articles.
Just looking up when it was published, I found one review by a Boris fan on Amazon.com:
“Highlights are finding his daughter to be Belgian not British, his flight in the Americans’ top fighter plane, his horror at the death of a stag together with his defence of hunting and the one piece of British journalism I have read in admiration of Dubya Bush. Boris is a man for clear blue water. If only Cameron was. He confirms to me one reason why I never passed on to the Conservatives approved candidates list. I had more than a whiff of Euroscepticism about me when interviewed in the same hotel as Boris.”
It’s always possible he doesn’t believe the stuff he wrote and it was all ‘I’m a columnist, I must write something interesting and outrageous’. But I’m not sure that would be any more reassuring.
On Iraq he has now gone a bit soft, but he was a real gung-ho pro-war man and, perhaps worse, he was very triumphalist in the immediate aftermath of the invasion in 2003, about how quick and successful it had been and how wrong the “Fisks and Pilgers and Robin Cooks” had been.
SurveyUSA trumpeting their good polling results. Gallup also come out of it well.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/02/06/2008-pollster-report-card-through-super-tuesday-active-pollsters-only/
Last thread 233 and 234
I would have thought that a result of an In / Out referendum would be binding, but I must say it would create a very difficult situation if No was the answer!
In terms of no supranational democracy, I think I see what you mean Sean, but if you have decisions (major ones that is) which are taken at international level, surely there has to be a way of subjecting them to democratic scrutiny. Only that way will you develop a “cross border polity” (as some have called it). It is totally insufficient that everything international in nature has to be put through a “It is / is not in Britain’s interest” to do X or Y. I know that as current nation states developed (and often still in many communities) people do not identify with the polity they “officially” belong to eg position of Northern Ireland’s Republican movement as an example close to home.
Gallup tracking today (5-7th) Clinton 7% in the lead, but the Thuesday sample was a pro-Clinton outlier, so for the two days thereafter “Clinton maintained a modest lead among national Democratic voters on Wednesday and Thursday.”
This is very muddy - I hope we will have more state polls tonight.
For what is worth the wards with a byelection yesterday will be in the following constituencies at next GE
Wiltshire County -Trowbridge East: Wiltshire South West
Wiltshire County -Holt and Paxcroft: Chippenham
Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough: Stoke on Trent North
Great Yarmouth Borough, Bradwell South and Hopton: Great Yarmouth
Portsmouth City, Copnor: Porsmouth North
West Devon District, Tavistock North:Devon West and Torridge
Hertfordshire County, Hapenden South West: Hitchin and Harpenden
Wycombe District: Beaconsfield
East Lindsey District, Roughton: Louth and Horncastle
Wyre Borough Victoria: Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Lancashire County, Thornton Cleveleys Central:Blackpool North and Cleveleys and Wyre and Preston North
68, Boris Johnson quotes:
More on those quotes:
“Not only did I want Bush to win, but we threw the entire weight of The Spectator behind him.” There was more in that piece. He described Bush as a “cross-eyed warmonger” and a “serially incompetent … maniac” whose re-election was “the most dismal awakening of my life”. I’d not deem that to be the most supportive piece in the world …
At the time before the Iraq war he condemned the use of “Whitehall-generated drum rolls of alarm” for which there was “no evidence whatever” and continued: “If we are really concerned about the weapons of mass destruction, then let the UN process work itself through.”
In every leadership contest since he joined Parliament, he has voted for a candidate seen as being on the left of the Party (Ken Clarke and David Cameron)
However, the Compass group did bring out a pamphlet containing many quotes out of context (most of which were from articles leaning exactly the other way to what they described) saying pretty much exactly what GA has said. They got shredded in the Evening Standard here
Although Gilligan is hardly unbiased, we can also argue that neither are Compass, and Gilligan did a good job of showing the greater source for the quotes.
73 - I remember that exchange. One of the moments that made me realise that Livingstone was the sort of person who shouldn’t be holding high office. Negative politics of the worst kind.
JFK’s Speechwriter Now Putting Words Into Obama Campaign…
http://www.kutv.com/content/news/topnews/story.aspx?content_id=916265d9-e2f0-485e-914f-80d85ff8139d
47. Oh look - the newt has pet astroturfers, as well.
Obama going down a storm in Seattle…
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/350597_obama09.html?source=mypi
Bush signals support for McCain.
He won in 2000 does he have to stick the boot in?
The GOP establishment has accepted the vote by the looks of it
Please tell me Bush isn’t going to endorse McCain? has he no mercy?
70. Tim13.
There is only one democratic model that scales and that is the US model. However, that relies on a devolved power model and I do not believe that the forces behind the EU Superstate have intention of devolving power. The whole exercise has been about gathering power to the top.
Given the fact that the US model developed from what was a blank slate only 200 hundred years ago and did not have to try and merge tens of political systems, national cultures and historical differences, the idea that the EU can create anything remotely democratic is highly unlikely.
IMHO the best you are going to get is the current oligarchy and that provides no real democracy. My guess is, as you infer, over a period of decades separatist groups will grow across the EU and within my lifetime the EU will fall apart. How peacefully that will be depends really on what is to come.
Hopefully, the EU will be history before I die…..
Is it true Cameron is going over to the states this October? His supporters say he has much to learn from McCain. I presume they mean about the comb-over, which Cameron will have to be on top of before long!
Obama: Superdelegates must go to the leader..
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/02/08/politics/fromtheroad/entry3809478.shtml
80. EU expansion is perfectly comparible ti US expnasion across its respective continent. Its just people are queuing up to join the EU on a entirely voluntary basis rather than the Us’s forced acquisitions, colonisation and land purchases.
80. The Americans certainly dealt pretty effectively with the problems of ‘diversity’ they encountered as they expanded their polity.
82. Aye we’ll see who listens….
there are absolutely staggering sums of money available on Betfair suggesting someone is prepared to lay £10ks against McCain. Given the odds are 20/1 on, and who knows when Betfair will settle, do they know something we don’t about McCain’s health?!
83. The EU is just as much a bully with a fanatical sense of its ‘manifest destiny’ as the early US was - it just uses different methods.
btw casino royale @35. I was looking at that too. I’m a bit new to Betfair, but I worked out the gap between laying on one and backing on the other would need to be about .12 to make up for the commission you’d have to pay - as they’re two separate markets, presumably Betfair won’t net positions out. But I may be wrong
83. I would accept quite a lot of that. I do think somehwere in the DNA of the EU is a grand and slightly messanianic political project but.
1. people are forming an orderly queue to join.
2. Lisbon sets out a very clear withdrawal clause.
3. theres always Norway/Switzerland to provide a bench mark for states to see which is the better deal.
86 It could just be punters playing safe and closing down their positions as many have done here - don’t forget also that it’s a very large betting market.
Although she’s my least favourite candidate, Hillary looks the value bet right now at 2.55/1 for the Presidency - cheap IMO.
Seattle Obama rally - was going to go down there, but then heard news reports that fire marshalls were closing the doors at Key Arena, which is located at Seattle Center (the old 1964 Worlds Fair grounds) under the Space Needle.
Capacity of Key Arena = 17k
Check out link below, to access live video of Obama’s Seattle rally:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/home/index.html
90 Yes, very cheap. With her financial position right now, half a mill would get you any policy promise you wanted.
89. why do we need a secession clause when all that is required is for us to repeal the 1973 Act by which we joined? Or am I perhaps missing something?
jsfi As Yellow Sub has said, US model not a blank slate - there were state governments prior - that after all was what brought about the Civil War. How were the arrangements to be run - Federal or Confederal?
You are also wrong in terms of “the forces behind the EU” you describe. You say that they are centralising. They are not. One of the foremost and powerful of the “pillars” of the EU is the Council of Ministers (which you could argue causes a lot of problems for the EU). Another key issue (opposed by UKIP and other anti-EU forces in the UK) is the primacy of Regions. Another is the principle of subsidiarity. In fact the whole philosophy of the EU, and certainly of those who believe in a federal Europe is about devolution.
Of course, there are always people around who are selfish with power, but that does not mean the EU is inherently any more power - crazed, or less democratic than any other political institution!
Of course, the EU, like many new institutions is born of compromise, and that means its internal democracy is complicated and less than perfect. But when all said and done it is no worse than a lot of institutions from that point of view, and I come back to the point that we need democratic scrutiny and oversight of international dealings in a globalised world.
95. It is very hard to believe that you actually believe any of what you have just written. If you do, do you perhaps also believe in fairies and Santa Claus?
Runnymede I think it’s about the unacceptability of reneging on international treaties. With a formal secession clause there is no question of reneging, just deciding a country no longer wishes to be a part of the EU. At the outset, no-one seriously thought about secession - closer and deeper union were the watchwords. I suppose it was the same with 1215 really, no-one envisaged the Barons (or the monarch) ever having less power than they had then!
80. The US model is one of centralisation over the last hundred years. This is why you get constitutional conservatives like Ron Paul who wish to restore the system of government to that of the original thirteen colonies.
That centralisation is not a bad thing - a strong central government is necessary for many aspects of goverment (the FBI to stop organised crime for example, or the EPA to stop a race to the bottom in environmental controls). What is wrong is when those centralised forces lack democracy, like in the EU as you say.
89. The examples of Norway and Switzerland is not entirely equivalent to ours should we pull out. Brussels still hopes to pull both those countries into the project at some stage and thus wishes to treat them well with good trade deals. They only offer free books on the way into the book club…
94. Because the EU is now a legal entity due to the Reform Treaty. That necessitates a withdrawal clause, because things would now have to clear at that level, rather than just the national level as before. Interestingly, this contrasts with the US experience, who have forbid any state from leaving the union.
95 What do you think, then? I take it you disagree with me?
Europe - Love It or Leave It.
A little bit of excitement from the LDs on here last night because of a few good LOCAL results.
Its all about the LOCAL with LDs
Regarding LD MPs at the next election, Capella have already recorded the song……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPeyIOAAvqE
101 Well, Ave it, I haven’t been writing about ‘local’ tonight!
98 - Think Ron Paul’s ideal is actually the Compromise of 1820.
95. “Of course, the EU, like many new institutions is born of compromise, and that means its internal democracy is complicated and less than perfect. But when all said and done it is no worse than a lot of institutions from that point of view, and I come back to the point that we need democratic scrutiny and oversight of international dealings in a globalised world.”
The EU is highly undemocratic. There are three main power bases:
(1) The EU Commission, the most powerful. This is composed of appointed commissioners, who will now choose a President to lead them. As the commissioners are picked by heads of governments, usually Prime Ministers, in many cases the new EU President will be four levels away from the people.
(2) The Council of Ministers, composed of the government ministers in whichever area of policy is being discussed. Three stages away from the people. Of course, these ministers are also three stages away from the people at the national level, but there they are checked by parliaments, one stage away. In the EU it is the three stage away Council who is supposed to be the check on the Commission!
(3) The EU Parliament. This is the one slight area of democracy. However, the candidates are chosen mainly on a party list system, the most undemocratic of electoral systems. Party elites can guarantee most of their candidates will get through because they know, for example that any major party will get at least 25% of the vote.
101 I suppose it questions your amusing but slightly repetitive narrative of “Tories Win Everything LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!”
105 LOLOLOL
Er Super Europe I love it
Tories win quite a lot HEHEHEHE
Obama Seattle rally running late, because Barrack has been meeting with people locked out in the overflow.
Will be taking the stage momentarily.
Hillary interview on local Seattle TV news, accusing Obama of being against (or at least not fighting for) universal health care.
A very good line for her in Seattle, which may be Ground Zero for support of UHC - is the top issue of our “congressman for life” Jim McDermott (himself a stormy petrel).
95 One could create a World Parliament, and elect 1,000 MPs to it. Nominally, it would be democratic, but in reality not. Its executive would not be judged by the World’s population, who would not feel enough in common with each other to vote according to the performance of the executive. In reality, we would elect 1,000 representatives who would carve up offices with each other, and establish an extensive bureaucracy in whom real power, increasingly, would be vested.
And that’s the model of the EU. There is no European Demos. No one in this country thinks of themselves as a supporter of the European Peoples’ Party, or the European Socialists. We just elect people (at the margins, given the party list system) who go off to form artificial groupings in the EU Parliament who are completely detached from their voters. National Parliaments increasingly rubber-stamp deals that are cobbled together in meetings between ministers from EU States.
Devolving powers to the regions is meaningless in this country as regional identity is just not important. No one living in Luton thinks of himself as an “Eastern Regioner” in the same way as someone from Great Yarmouth.
Had we never joined the EU, I don’t believe for one moment that anyone other than a handful of eccentrics would want to get involved now. Fear of Russia is what drives those Eastern European states who do want to get in.
1 ‘The Trowbridge result was a poor one for LibDems’
Mark Senior on message - he will be Con soon…………….
110 But not as bad as Portsmouth and Tavistock were for your party .
104. The new “EU President” is actually the President of the Council, not the Commission. Silly of me to say otherwise.
Once heard a great idea for a sensible replacement for the state legislature, which currently consists of three legislators elected from each leg district (1 senator, 2 representatives).
Using the phone book, pick three bars at random from each legislative district. Then chose the biggest loudmouth from each bar to go to Olympia for the legislative session.
111 - Mark as i said earlier LDs are too worried about the LOCAL
Next GE: Con 2 gains/1 hold 1 gain (not sure what is going on with the new boundaries in Portsmouth N) - Hancock = cheerio
Tavistock = 0 seats for LDs in Devon
114 and you are completely complacent about the GE . Portsmouth North should be an easy Conservative hold/gain given the disarray Labour are in there but Conservatives in Portsmouth are trying very hard to match them for stupidity .
109 Sean Any system of democracy beyond the people of Athens meeting in the city square is going to involve some cobbling together deal making - it goes on at District Council all the time (I also argue with my son that the preponderance of slaves, and no doubt women) in ancient Athens precluded universal suffrage, and therefore “proper democracy”. Of course, the bigger the unit, the more difficult. However, I think your repetition of your belief that there is no common people - no “demos” as you put it at an international level - is really a counsel of despair. We might as well say humanity is just - in the face of huge international challenges - going to pack up, shrug its shoulders and say “Business as Usual” because we can’t understand or empathise with others across the world. I suppose in the end, this is why you are a Conservative and I am a Liberal Democrat. And, yes, although I have doubts about ALDE - the Association of Liberals and Democrats in Europe, I can still campaign along with that grouping (I am doing it even at the moment!)
112 And therefore possibly silly to claim the Commission is the most powerful EU Pillar!
115 yes we’ve won the GE 400 maj er I mean we are working hard in all seats to get the message across!
Penny Mordaunt is the future: Con gain/hold maj 10,000
Portsmouth S Con gain - Hancock = 3rd
Worthing: LDs down to 3rd
This morning Hillary Clinton held “health care rally” in Tacoma, at fieldhouse of University of Puget Sound, crowd about 5k.
Hillary is featuring her endorsement by American Nurses Association, both to highlight health care issue and also to counter yesterday’s endorsement of Obama by Service Employees International Union (SEIU) which represent many nurses and other health care workers.
113. It was Bill Buckley who said he’d rather be governed by the first 2000 names in the Boston phone book, rather than the faculty of Harvard.
But that probably says more about the anti-intellectualism and conspiracy theories of the American Right than anything else.
BTW, the young lady in the ad banner below & to the right, with the terrible miltaristic t-shirt.
I really think she should take it off.
116. By any standard of civic democracy, a demos is formed by people who choose to come together to form a people. The so-called daily plebiscite on membership. If the people of Europe wish to become a single demos then they can. If they do not, as all the evidence suggests, then the European Union is against self-determination.
Such has always been the case of course. But the EU elite is now showing such is the case by the denial of referenda on the new treaty.
120 - the person who gave me the bar proposal, was IMHO the best staffer at the WA legislature, with 20 years experience.
I see Bill Clinton is campaigning in Maine as only he can…
http://www.abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=4264280
117. No, the Commission is currently the most powerful institution, except for the European Council (different from the Council of Ministers) which meets four times a year. The new treaty would change things round a bit, elevating the European Council to be its own fourth institution so to speak.
Boris, it seems to me, appeals to a certain type of Tory (the jovial Private Eye/Oldie reader type) and to lots of people who aren’t much interested in politics and have a low certainty to vote. He isn’t expected to be a competent manager even by his supporters. Ken, by contrast, has a large base who think he’s wonderful and a swing vote who dislike him but reluctantly concede that he’s good at what he does. Would Kingbongo like to increase our charity stakes from £20/£30 to £30/£40?
Er, Livingstone way out-polled the Labour Party in 2000 AND 2004 and with far more than the votes of just Tories. Get it right!
Apologies if this sounds a naive question but how can a sitting MP for a constituency in Oxfordshire stand for the position Mayor of London without having to stand down.
I’ve just been reading the posts and having shown no real interest in the contest before, the question struck me.
Surely if an MP decides to stand for a position of high office in another constituency, he/she should stand down first.
This is in no way a partisan dig at Boris - (I actually quite like him and as I live many miles north, the current London Mayor contest doesn’t interest me in any great way other than in a betting sense) - Whichever party the candidate represents, I’d be a touch p****d off if my MP was spending a great deal of time campaigning for another office (unlike a leadership, cabinet or shadow position).
Surely standing for election is a gamble - it does seem unfair that should he lose, he gets to go back to the MP gig.
Clearly there is no legal requirement but surely there is a moral case.
128. Why should he? The three leading candidates in the US remain in the Senate while they run for President. If you apply for a promotion, there’s no reason you should have to give up your present job.
128 Why unlike a leadership, cabinet or shadow position? What time really does a government minister have to represent his constituency? The deputy leadership campaign in Labour Party certainly didn’t allow Hain (and others apparently) sufficient time to manage campaign expenses - how much did time did they have for constituency matters?
If Boris wins then yes he has to step down (an interesting by election may beckon) but his electors voted for him when he was doing a full time job as Spectator editor.
Sean Fear is uncharacteristically mistaken in his last para in 109: there is a continuing plurality in Britain who think membership a good rather than a bad thing (37-25) and across the Continent it’s near its highest-ever levels of popularity, with absolute majorities for statements that Eurosceptics in Britain would find incredible, such as “I trust the European Commission” - see http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb68/eb68_first_en.pdf
Doesn’t mean they’re right, but the grudging view prevalent in Britain (either ‘waste of space’ or ‘better off in than out, I suppose’) is untypical of most of Europe, not merely Russophobe Eastern europeans.
128 “..If you apply for a promotion, there’s no reason you should have to give up your present job..”
But the Mayor of London position isn’t a promotion, it covers an entirely different constituency, entirely different role - different to the one the candidate was originally elected for - and in response to your comment, if an employee was found spending a great deal of his working day applying for other jobs, the employer wouldn’t be too happy now and could find grounds for dismissal. (the differences between being an MP and being an employee aside.)
My original post was merely a question posed - I guess views on this depend on individual outlooks on the role of an MP to his/her constituents.
131 - Would you say that the views are untypical because actually the country is untypical? In the sense that most of Europe has experienced a period of its recent history where is wasn’t totally the master of its destiny in the sense of occupation or domination by external agents and Britain hasn’t and surely that affects the national psyche in some way?
127 - Question I have, does Boris have any current or potential appeal with socially conservative working class & lower middle class likely voters. Any “he may be a toff, but he’s my kind of toff” kind of thing?
128, 127 Not sure US comparision really works. because whatever state the Senator is from is part of the US, whereas Boris is MP for a non-London constituency. Which makes more sense in traditional British context than it ever would in US.
Do agree with you Soc, don’t see why politico needs to give up one job to seek another. After all, people try to avoid that in real life as much as possible.
133 - That is a really excellent point.
130 I guess I would answer simply that the public know in advance that any MP they elect may well be elevated to a leadership/cabinet/shadow position, whereas I’m sure those who backed Boris as an MP couldn’t have known they would be electing somebody who would be spending so much time running for election elsewhere.
You seem to take this as a personal attack against Boris or the Conservative Party in general - It is not - merely a thought that struck me.
134 “..Do agree with you Soc, don’t see why politico needs to give up one job to seek another. After all, people try to avoid that in real life as much as possible…”
Maybe there should be a ‘transfer window’ towards the end of the season.
Socrates But democratic units, as I pointed out above, are quite often not formed of a set of people who uniformly wish to belong to that legislative unit - there are often complications. For example, who would be allowed to vote in a plebiscite to create a single polity? Again remember the difficulty of devising a formula to deal with the NI peace negotiations. What about the Kurdish situation? Who would be entitled to vote (theoretically!) if they ever had a referendum on the setting up of an independent Kurdish state?
I think the point I am imperfectly trying to make, is that no democracy is perfect, no demos is homogeneous in its wishes about how or who represents it, or what area it should cover. This cannot, surely, invalidate it as a democracy, unless the rejection is quite clear. Frankly, I cannot see that being so with the EU. And, when we try to build international democracy, we can see that some people will find it difficult to accept. No-one has yet answered my point about democratic control of a globalised world, except to say - in effect, it can’t be done, no-one wants it, it won’t work etc etc. So this means that all you conservatives (note the small ‘c’) out there believe that the Rupert Murdochs, Bill Gates’s of this world really do it better - BECAUSE, apparently, we don’t like each other enough to work together.
Can I say, after a century of world war, dictatorship etc, I think this is unutterably feeble, and shows such low political ambition. With that rant I shall go to bed! Frankly, Runnymede, I might just as well believe in Father Christmas and fairies than in some 800 year old treaty negotiated between the King and the Barons. If that was democracy I’ll eat my hat! Where were the references in Magna Carta to giving serfs their freedom and right to vote?
133: that’s an interesting question. Most people don’t themselves remember WW2, but smaller countries in particular have few illusions about their power to shape the world on their own. I think it’s an illusion in Britain too, but a widely-held one.
But it’s also shaped by our extraordinarily xenophobic press. Other countries have tabloids too, but they tend to direct their scorn at domestic politicians - hence the finding in the survey above that most Europeans trus tthe EU institutions more than their national politicians.
Obama 20 points ahead in VA
http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=7843031
132 - Think your position has merit & is worthy of consideration. From a practical standpoint am not sure the employee looking for another job comparision really holds water.
For one thing, voters (leastways in the states) regard holding a lower elected office as a credential for holding a higher one. And when two reasonably elected square off for another position, and one loses, generally there isn’t much clamor to chuck out the loser from him existing job.
139 - But why is the British press xenophobic, or at least very nationalistic, same as in the USA?
Answer: it sells papers. Why? Methinks #133 is part of the answer.
141 Essentially the question has arisen from events in the constituency where I live - a very tight marginal where the new MP still holds a council position and there has been much criticism in the local press of the dual role, and accusations he’s holding onto one in case he loses the other.
I thought of this reading the post topic tonight.
140 - Obama is ahead by over 2/1 in southside and central VA where Blacks dominate the Democratic primary. In DC suburbs Obama leads by +9 points, while in Shenandoah Valley & Southwest VA he’s behind Clinton, but only by -6 points, which isn’t bad at all.
134: I don’t think socially conservative people who know much about Boris approve of him at all. His core vote are people who like someone they see as a refreshingly irreverent rascal.
142: you could well be right, SSI (and James).
143 - Ah, double-dipping. Think that’s another matter entirely. Am 100% against letting one person hold two or more elected positions.
In WA we’ve got a State Senator who is also a County Commissioner. Drives me nuts. And it would even if I liked the guy, which I don’t. But most electeds over here couldn’t get away with it.
In his monthly attack to Brown, Charles Clarke has just said that to make the Cabinet look better, GB should bring back Milburn, Byers, Reid and Hewitt
I almost feared he was going to say that Armstrong should be back too to make the Cabinet look heavyweight….
Don’t know if there are any US Civil War buff