Obama now plays the “inevitability” card?
February 14th, 2008
“It’s impossible for Clinton to win enough pledged delegates“
After more than a year of watching Hillary positioning her “inevitable victory” as a key part of her effort to secure the Democratic Party nomination there has been a dramatic new claim from Team Obama.
They are now saying that following Tuesday’s round of primaries it is now nigh on impossible for Clinton to come top in terms of pledged delegates where, they say, Barack enjoys a 136 person margin
The Illinois Senator’s campaign manager David Plouffe told a press conference that: “We believe it’s next to impossible for Senator Clinton to close that pledged delegate count. The only way she could do it is winning most of the rest of the contests by 25 to 30 points, and we see not a single contest on the calendar left where we would expect her to win by those margins“
Clearly this is all part of a new strategy to position Obama’s victory as inevitable. The aim being, of course, to persuade the so-called “super-delegates” to back the will of voters as expressed through the series of primaries and caucuses. Also portraying Hillary as a loser could help in the remaining primary contests and impede her attempts to fundraise for her campaign - who wants to give money to a loser?
The Clinton camp is disputing the maths (or math as Americans calls it) and are saying that the final decision is made by the super-delegates as well as the pledged ones. There’s also the little matter of the Michigan and Florida delegates which according to the party will not be able to take part. Whatever the race has now reached a new phase and one that looks very challenging for the ex-President’s spouse.
In the UK betting Obama is now at 0.37/1 with Clinton on 2.65/1. thus a successful £100 bet on Obama would produce a profit of just £37.
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I see the mainstream American media is now picking up on the thoughts the pb.com community had a week ago!
“Clearly this is all part of a new strategy to position Obama’s victory as inevitable.”
Sounds like a good idea, especially after it worked for HRC so well.
Yet again I find that there are 602,000 trillion new messages since i was last here, so i can’t respond fully to everything.
Three threads ago:
Anybody who incorrectly and perversely says “haitch”, or writes “it’s” when it should be “its”, or “could of” when it should be “could have”, or says “zee” instead of “zed”, or “math” instead of “maths”, is overtly, deliberately, consciously and catastrophically insane, is hell-bent on destroying civilisation, and should be ruthlessly exterminated in the most painful way possible. Or at least we should bite their toes off, smear treacle in their hair, squirt custard in their ears, poke them in the eyes with sticks of celery, sprinkle pepper in their mouths and cut them in half with a scythe. Then they might learn to be reasonable and open-minded and tolerant and sensible and moderate like the rest of us normal people.
Two threads ago:
SeanT: “And trust me, I’ve SEEN Nigella’s butt (clothed, natch). If it was circling the solar system, it would give rise to rumours of a tenth planet, and create panic amongst astrologers.”
And what, pray tell, is the ninth?
I think there is a flaw in the argument that BBC election coverage has not enough detail of results compared with USATV; in the USA they have results from each polling district announced separately, whereas in the UK we have the dramatic moment of a result being declared in one swell foop. I prefer the latter method. It would be acceptable to count the polling districts separately, as long as the details are only published after the main declaration and not dribbled in before.
On a side note, there seems to be a steady stream of people laying small amounts on Dick Cheney to be next prez on Betfair - at present, there’s £18 available at 1000. If you eventually manage to get a few hundred on at those odds, and you were an unusually high-risk gambler, wouldn’t it be worth your while getting hold of a sniper rifle and waiting on a rooftop near the White House for W to emerge? Precedent suggests Cheney would be immediately inaugurated and you’d be rolling in it, assuming you managed to get away.
Anyway, just an idle thought. I don’t, of course, endorse that kind of carry on.
3 - I can’t understand for the life of me why Obama’s team is coming out with this now?
As you say, making it look inevitable is a sure fire way of really motivating the other side.
It also suggests that they are really scared that they have not got the sway in the Superdelegates that many on here believe they have.
I reckon they are worried that Mar 4th really could put HRC back in it and want her out before then. The polls over the last day or two from Ohio are not reading pretty for BO.
Another sign is Obama attacking McCain and vice versa
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/us/politics/13cnd-campaign.html
It’s the economy stupid.
Only the worst sort of conspiracy theorist would suggest the imminent closure of the American government’s economic statistics portal is due to Republicans running scared.
http://www.economicindicators.gov/
“Due to budgetary constraints, the Economic Indicators service (http://www.economicindicators.gov) will be discontinued effective March 1, 2008.”
realize the betting action is in the us, but 5 threads in a row? Please SOME uk politics. Any new polls out soon?
9 - There’s not a penny to be made in the UK at the moment (unless you want to just talk about London) so why the hell should there be threads on British politics? As far as I can tell this is called political betting. So the money is in the U.S. so that’s what we’re talking about!
And my comment re Ohio doesn’t really hold as the last poll there is probably out of date since Tuesday.
I still think Hillary will win through and that there’s a profit to be made there.
The other real story though I think is the effect this may have on the final result. The nastier this becomes and the longer it goes on (and I can see it continuing through to Denver) the more problematic it is for the Democrats. So the other bet worth making is on a GOP victory … and I say that as no fan of the Republicans.
re 9. we had a UK thread yesterday - on the BBC’s election coverage.
There will be a UK thread later today.
At the moment, though, the Commons isn’t sitting and there is little happening in UK politics to affect any betting market.
We did London last Friday and on Monday yet the mayoral election is still not capturing the imagination of punters. Just £46k has been matched on Betfair.
times populus today!
“The poll puts Labour on 31 per cent, down two points since a month ago; the Tories on 40 per cent, plus three points; the Liberal Democrats down two points at 17 per cent; and the others up one point at 12 per cent.”
re 13. Alas - that poll was published a week last Tuesday.
There might be a poll in the Sunday papers and I’m hoping that we will soon see a proper London mayoral poll - unlike the last one which was based on the responses of just 339 people of whom only 240 expressed a voting intention.
Obama should not be distracting himself with this stupid war of words. His campaign has been relentlessly positive up to this point and he shouldn’t get involved in this.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
It is a betting site and the money to made (and lost) currently is in America. I am sure come April time as we gear up of the mayoral election in London, threads on this will dominate. Which is fine for anyone in London.
UK politics is quite dull at the moment. It feels like the phoney war 1939-40.
4: You forgot their/there and your/you’re! Both also punishable by slow painful death in my book.
O/T My colleague has just arrived in the office clutching a “Vote for Boris” Oyster Card holder. Given out for free at Pimlico Tube Station, apparently. Each one has a blue-on-white silhouette of the man (with uncombed hair) and a request to text his campaign team for regular updates.
Clever. Better than balloons, stickers or leaflets because these things will be used; and in the case of my colleague, used by a woman with slightly less political awareness than the average breeze block.
4,17,
There was also a “flaunting/flouting” error a thread or two back, but no pedants have picked up on it*
You just don’t get the quality of pedants these days …
* (a pedant writes: but you’ve just picked up on it, you pedant …)
18 - That sort of thing is pure gold. Whoever dreamt it up deserves a bonus.
18. ooh, now thats good.
O/T (not much to add on topic!): any predictions for the Spanish election? See
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article3365886.ece
22 - I think it will be close, having friends in Spain there is a lot of anti-Zapatero feeling amongst them but no real enthusiasm for the Partido Popular.
23. Sounds like it mirrors the position in the UK..
Big swing to Bozza in the Carp office! 50% of employees now brandishing Vote for Boris Oyster Card holders. The Kiwi wants me to explain who Boris is, but he would probably want to know the same about Ken and Ploddick as well.
25 - Well they may have the card holders but will they all turn up to vote, and vote Boris?
OT but could you all read and consider signing this:
http://www.petitiononline.com/irangay
Thanks
2 UK topics , firstly the Boundary Commission have published their new draft proposals for Scottish Holyrood constituencies , full details on their website . There no doubt will be some changes before final proposals are adopted .
Secondly , the curious case of the defection of a SWP councillor to the Conservatives in Tower Hamlets . Leaving aside the question of how SWP and the Conservatives can have compatible political beliefs , the latest press release from SWP/Respect is that he has not defected anyway .
5 - WARNING - Betfair have since clarified that the ‘Next President’ Market will be decided by whomsoever wins the November Election. If you placed a bet before 31st Jan, you could ask for your money back, because that wasn’t defined, but since 31st Jan they have specified this in the rules, so even if Bush resigned/was impeached/died, you would not win this bet.
Just so that everyone knows…otherwise, I agree that would have been excellent value. Can’t see Cheney winning in November though!
re 25. Can you send a copy of what the holders look like?
There seems to have been a lot of speculation about what these so-called “super delegates” will do, but to me it’s inconceivable that they could put in the candidate who had fewer delegates over the head of the one who had more. Therefore the whole argument about super-delegates, which has occupied several threads on this blog of late, is in my view academic. The nomination will go to whichever candidate has the most delegates, and that now looks certain to be Obama.
Also, this is not Betfair being stingy, but I think there are rules (probably ethical, but possibly with distant legal implications) about bookmakers running Assassination Markets.
Can’t imagine anyone going that far just to win a bet, but the reasoning is that you shouldn’t encourage assassinations by adding financial incentive.
Puts a new spin on us betting on the next Parliamentary by-election!
Another commentator looks into the wings as the fat lady practices her scales -
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/02/heilemann_does_clinton_even_ha.html
22-I saw a blog with “uniform swing” calculated for Spain. The PP come ahead of PSOE on -2% vote share.
Looking at the way seats are allocated, and on current trends it looks very very close.
33 - Thanks for that M. Jacques. I especially enjoyed the inclusion of the words ‘trifecta’ and ’shellacking’, neither of which still enjoys the frequent usage that both deserve.
25,30 - Interestingly This story from September would suggest that Boris’s people had them ready for the primary election back in September.
36. Indeed, I’ve had one since September. They were handing them out at the hustings.
The are white with a blue silhouette of the Boris hair. You can see a green version on his website.
http://www.backboris.com/
30. Not sure that I want to see a picture of half of Augustus’ work colleagues. Especially fearful of an image of Breeze Block Woman.
38 Don’t worry, I have only sent Mike a copy of the empty holder.
[36] I agree - whoever thought that one up’s a genius. I imagine they’re dishing them out now for one or both of two reasons: to see how they’re received, with a view to repeating the dose at the end of April, and/or because they’re still “off” election expenses.
Not that I’ve any idea what the expense limits for the Mayoralty are anyway.
It’s not just a “tactic” by the Obama campaign: on the basis of where he’s done well so far, he’s highly favoured to win remaining states like Mississippi, South Dakota, Hawaii, (probably) Wisconsin, Vermont, Indiana (despite Evan Bayh), West Virginia and so on.
Obama tends to win the states he wins by more than Clinton does in the states she wins. Assuming that trend continues, and because of the proportional allocation system, for Hillary to win a majority of delegates, she’d have to win Texas and Ohio by margins of getting on for 20 points plus in order to end up with more delegates than Obama.
The last Texas poll I saw (before the Obama streak) only gave her a 12% lead; the last Ohio poll (again, before this week’s wins) only 16%. So it’s not a tactic to prove inevitability, it’s a realistic modeling of the remaining races which pretty much anyone who wants to try it can work out for themselves.
As for superdelegates, let’s just remember there are 800 of them, of which some 400 have declared - so the myth that Hillary has a huge lead there is just that: uncommitted has a huge lead there. And I can’t see how superdelegates get away with tipping this to Clinton (if they’re in a position too) even if they wanted to, without handing the general election to McCain on a platter.
[41] I’d assume that the superdelegates would go for whoever they thought had the biggest coat-tails.
41 Bit arrogant though, isn’t it Adam, calling yourself the winner before the votes are counted? Not really in tune with Obama’s campaigning style. Surprising.
OT. Back on UK politics, following Nick Clegg’s comments earlier in the week about the possibility of a Tory/LibDem coalition govt, I see Hills have offered 10/1 on such an event happening.
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=9543
My gut feel is that the price has some value, and looking at Betfair, with the no overall majority priced at 2.64 (38%) and the Tories to have most seats at 1.8 (55%), the likelihood of Tories having most seats in a hung parliament is approx 20%, or 4/1.
Obviously, in such a situation they could choose to form a minority govt, or partner with a smaller party if they are just short of an absolute majority, but the 10/1 price assumes this would be the odds on course of action which doesn’t feel right.
I know certain pb’ers thing the hung parliament odds themselves are pretty good value, so there may be a bit more value still in the Hills odds. Any thoughts anyone??????
If you want to back this one, I think you have to ring Hills up.
44, speaking of the Lib Dems, apparently 2-3 frontbenchers and 5 backbenchers are planning to disobey Calamity’s ridiculous edict to vote against a referendum.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/02/nick-cleggs-fir.html
42: If SeanT is to be believed that would be Clinton…
44: Hung parliament looks v likely doesn’t it? Tories need to gain fewer than 30 labour seats for that (again v likely IMHO), yet need to gain well over 100 in total to form a majority (a big ask). Spreads also pointing to that. No evidence of tories breaking into the mid 40% range, or of Labour going below 30%, and those kind of double-digit plus leads are what has historically been needed mid-term for a party to be the 7 or 8% ahead in a GE the tories need for a majority.
46 - The opinion poll leads may actually be sufficient it all rather depends on where the uplift is coming from. If the Conservative increase in vote is more in marginals than safe seats then the number of seats could be higher. I personally would like to see more of the marginals polls that we saw in October, might give more info.
We do keep waiting for Browns vision and it is not forthcoming. Darling is taking a kicking in the papers. It seems someone close to Brown has had the Balls to take some well aimed swipes at him not been up to the job. Reinforces the negatives views of this government.
The Tories need to turn it into a more positive view of themselves to get a circa 11% lead to win outright at the next GE.
Also, when it comes to a general election the turnout will probably be higher as it’ll be quite close. It’s quite hard to predict whether that will aid Brown or Cameron the most. (Anti-Brown voting might be important. He’s not very popular, and his USP of economic competence looks less than shiny).
49 FWIW , I think general disillusionment with politicians of all parties is at an all time low and turnout at the next GE will go down not increase .
50 - disillusionment at an all time low. Hmm don’t think so!
47 - I don’t think marginal seats polls are very useful at all unfortunately. The work in the marginals either pays off or doesn’t in the final weeks, days and even hours.
Right now, only the most abnormal person thinks, “hmmm, I am in a marginal seat so what should I do?” They will just give the pollster a gut reaction of which party is best based on news reports. That’s fine for a general view of the national picture. But the subtle aspects of a marginal seat campaign based on how the candidate’s personal profile has been built, how the tactical message has been brought home, whether a crescendo has been reached, whether a sitting MP has built his personal vote etc just can’t be measured in these polls. In other words they tell you everything except anything worth knowing.
52 - Considering that the Conservatives especially have been working their target seats almost since the last vote was counted last time, I think that marginal polls are useful.
52 - I agree (although I am one of those abnormal people).
50 - I agree that the public is extremely disillusioned. I disagree that turnout will go down. In a close election, even the disillusioned will relish the opportunity to kick out the bums/keep out the most hated.
I expect turnout to be similar next time to last. On the one hand, it will be less polarised (Iraq and Howard’s campaign approach won’t be replicated) and more managerial which will depress turnout. On the other it looks likely to be closer. I expect those factors to balance each other out.
50. But it’s people like YOU who are destroying the image of politics.
i.e. If politicians did things like keeping their most solemn promises - on important stuff like referendums- then people might not be so disillusioned with politicians.
Involve the people, be honest with them, give them a say - and then the people will respond. It’s not quantum mechanics.
If you ignore the people, lie to them, and deny them a say, having once promised them a vote, they will turn away in apathy and disgust.
*waits for inevitable, pathetic, bleating response: “but only 2% of people say they care about the EU more people worry about bus-stops for deaf people etc etc”*
37. Bozza’s website is actually quite cool. It looks professional - unlike him. Is he finally getting his act together?
The recieved wisdom is that depressed turn outs aid the Tories as they are more likely to vote (just look at the polls when certianty to vote is taken into account).
People are fed up with politicians. Most of it they bring on themselves so they deserve little sympathy.
56 - Boris is looking more professional, shorter less uncombed hair etc.
45. Oh dear - a major split is Clegg’s first achievement. Nice to see that not all Lib Dems take their orders from Brussels though, even if their ‘leader’ (sic) obviously does.
53 - I live in a Labour held marginal. There has been Tory activity but let’s not overplay it. It is scene setting, mood music stuff introducing their candidate and setting up some themes. None of it is in any way the talk of the pubs and post offices. That is not a criticism - you don’t want to peak too soon and I would be happy enough with progress if I were Lord Cashloft. But I wouldn’t expect any progress to be obvious from polls at this point.
56 And it’s *you* who single-handedly destroyed Hillary Clinton’s chances in Iowa, and possibly changed the outcome of the entire US election.
The parties all do private polling in the Marginals. Its the reason why Brown didn’t go to the country in the Autumn. They would have lost enough of the marginals to lose their majority.
After all approx 800k people this country have any real say as to the outcome of the GE.
61 SeanF please don’t feed The Ego, it’s big enough as it is.
56 Well seanT , in my view voters are far more put off politics by news of them lining the pockets of themselves and their families than a referendum which most of them have no interest in .
There is of course a referendum being held in 10 parliamentary constituencies on the EU treaty . I doubt whether the turnout will get into double figures .
61. Yes, it is spooky isn’t it? Clinton’s descent began at exactly the moment I made my comments, on here, disassociating her from “juicing”.
I thought nothing of it at the time. I just said she wasn’t a “juicer”, as far as I knew, and that any connection between Hillary Rodham Clinton and “juicing” was entirely spurious, and should be driven from the mind.
And yet it seems possible that some people have now indelibly linked her name, Hillary Rodham Clinton, with the unsavoury practise of “juicing”, and they are voting accordingly. But this is ridiculous, because Hillary Clinton has got nothing to do with “juicing”!!!
How many more times do I have to say this: Hillary/Juicing - There’s Nothing That Links Them!!
Two quick thoughts that I’m going to inflict on you all…
1) I hate it when politicians declare their victory/candidacy/whatever to be inevitable. It almost makes me want to vote for the other guy, just to show ‘em. Perhaps that’s an English love-the-underdog mentality, in the way that everyone supports Dog & Duck FC against Big Evil Premier League Team FC in the FA Cup and so it won’t be replicated in America, but I still think it’s something all politicians should be wary of
2) If Obama is now virtually unstoppable, how come his price is gently drifting?
65 I think the Iowans were waiting for a steer from Political Betting. As you said at the time, had the vote been in California, it would probably have boosted her chances. It was her bad luck that the first vote was in God-fearing Iowa.
I saw “inevitability” but I thought it was “invisibility”
Is this the most politically correct Labour council in Britain?
http://www.bdrecorder.co.uk/content/barkinganddagenham/recorder/news/story.aspx?brand=RECOnline&category=newsBarkDag&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newsBarkDag&itemid=WeED14%20Feb%202008%2009%3A23%3A07%3A023
Me, ten minutes ago:
“Mark Senior. If you ignore the people, lie to them, and deny them a say, having once promised them a vote, they will turn away in apathy and disgust.
*waits for inevitable, pathetic, bleating response: “but only 2% of people say they care about the EU more people worry about bus-stops for deaf people etc etc”*”
Mark Senior, in response:
“56 Well seanT , in my view voters are far more put off politics by news of them lining the pockets of themselves and their families than a referendum which most of them have no interest in .
There is of course a referendum being held in 10 parliamentary constituencies on the EU treaty . I doubt whether the turnout will get into double figures.”
Oh God, help us.
Tell you what Mark, why doesn’t your dismal little party just stick to its solemn promise, and to its name - liberal DEMOCRATS - and give us the referendum you promised?
I guarantee turnout will be somewhat higher than single figures.
Whoops no, you can’t do that, because you might LOSE.
Let us never, ever hear again any more pompous drivel from Lib Dems and Labour about democracy and morality. Let us never hear again, from people like you, any moaning about “disillusionment in politics”, when you are doing so much to nourish that disillusion.
To paraphrase Obaba: You are the problem you wish to change.
66. 2) Because he isn’t unstoppable by any means. And because the latest polls for Hillary in Ohio are good, which means we could see a brokered convention, if she also wins TX and PA by large margins - and then anything could happen.
62 - It’s not the same as a “marginals poll” though. What they were doing is probing the breadth and depth of Brown’s appeal at the time (the answer to which was not as broad or deep as they hoped). They were doing that in marginal seats for obvious reasons but it wasn’t as crude as “are we doing 2% better or worse in marginal seats”.
66: If your supporters think victory is inevitable some may not go out and vote which gives your opponent an edge, also people will want to prove you wrong.
SeanT in full flow today - just to enliven a dull thread I hope.
Part of me is thinking that the current Obamania hype is like the big lead for Dukakis in the opinion polls in the middle of 1988.
Most of the pompous drivel that is png sted on this site comes from yourself , as for you guaranteeing turnout will be higher than single figures how are you going to do that ? . I presume you really mean to say that in your pious pimping opinion it will be but we will be able to tell in 10 days or so time .
50 “I think general disillusionment with politicians of all parties is at an all time low and turnout at the next GE will go down not increase .
Dont lump ALL politicians in with your sleazy, lying, treasonous ZanuNuLab.
75 weird should say being posted
75. Calm down Mark. Take a nice gentle walk along the prom or something. Perhaps buy an ice cream.
I see Shadsy has added a couple of Jan’s GOP VP nomination requests to Ladbrokes book, Mark Sanford at 12/1 and Bobby Jindal at 16/1.
Like Jan I think Jindal is more likely one for the future, but Sanford could be a good outside bet, as he ticks lots of boxes, and would help motivate a lot of the voters who are still choosing Huckabee in the remaining contests.
http://tinyurl.com/2jvxdq
76 I don’t lump ALL politicians in with anyone but the poll evidence is that most voters do lump all politicians in with the Nulab and the Conways .
78 I’m quite calm thanks , it is seanT who is a little overexcited .
Mark Senior - hole, digging, STOP. You’re making a fool of yourself
64, “I doubt whether the turnout will get into double figures .” Does that matter? I was under the impression that a vote’s result counts regardless of how many vote.
72, I agree. It doesn’t sound good. Although it does sound better than a ginger haired idiot screaming “Weeeeorrrrrigggghhht!”
75. I meant, you egg-stained, sheep-faced pea-brain - no offence - that if we had a national referendum on the Constitution, as promised by YOUR PARTY until they decided to lie, there would a turnout higher than single figures.
Or do you dispute that? Maybe you just expect votes in single figures - as that is so often what Lib Dems get.
Who is your leader now anyway? I forget. Cableclogg? Ming Kennedy? That lesb1an midget from Call My Bluff? It’s so hard to keep track with these tiny parties like you and UKIP and the rest.
Obama is just the front runner, but if Hillary Clinton can win Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvaania, she must definitely be in contention, even if she does finish up slightly behind in terms of pledged delegates.
My impression is that core Democrats slightly prefer her.
85, ironically, might it not be the divisive, partisan reason for her popularity with some democrats could see her lose a presidential bid?
Obama, on the other hand, is much more seen as a consensus builder.
For those who are convinced the UK housing market is DOOMED like the US (Thread from a few days ago). Here’s Merrill Lynch explaining the differences with charts; http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/02/14/10916/will-the-uk-housing-market-follow-the-us/
Mark,
I would not start on Nulabour and Conway as the fibdems are not whiter than white.
87, we are better than the US as regards housing. However, we do have inflation to worry about and that seems to be dictating future interest rate cuts, meaning they won’t fall as sharply as the market had been expecting and hoping.
Remains to be seen how things will play out.
86 - Obama is simply not saying anything to get elected. His policies are largely non-existant and those that do exist particularly in foreign policy are ludicrously dangerous. The guy is a bit of a fraud. I am surprised at how many otherwise intelligent people are being suckered by this guy.
90 Agreed. Imagine Obama as a leading MP for an Opposition party in the UK - the press and others would tear him apart for his lack of substance and waffly sound-bites. But, as someone pointed out here yesterday, they do things differently in the US.
Mark Senior, you are a fool and you are needlessly expending your energy.
Spreading spin and propaganda on this site does not matter. The voters dont read it.
Thing is you have betrayed the working class. They are going to get angrier.
re 44 I think the hung parliament odds are still excellent value and it’s only the one-more-heave Tories who have piled into the market that have the Tories as favourite for an overall majority when there’s not much chance of that at all.
88 I am not starting on anyone , just making a general comment on why the general public have a low opinion of ALL politicians and hence why turnout at the next GE is likely to fall .
84 Now now seant , don’t take it out on me that you are incapable of writing what you meant to say instead of what you did say .
75. When SeanT said that the turnout would be more than 10%, he was referring to a national referendum on EU membership - not a pretend local parish poll or whatever it is in 10 days’ time. You would have known that if you had bothered to read what he actually wrote, instead of reading a quarter of it and then frothing at the mouth in proxysms of apoplexy at the concept of defending democracy.
92 I doubt whether voters read your lunatic ravings either .
84. Don’t worry, Comrade SeanT - not only is that what you meant, it is also what you actually wrote.
Mark Senior is Roger and I claim my bottle of Champagne Socialism and 100,000pounds via 3rd parties.
84 How do the laws of Teason apply to Labour signing the European Constitution?
[96] Mark, I refer you to post [82]: when Sean’s in “hyper” mode as he is to-day the only thing to do is to ignore him - and, of course, to encourage him on those all too rare occasions when he deigns to put his brain in gear first.
Where is Roger? Mark is doing his best as a substitute comedian, but sadly he really doesn’t match up.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7244387.stm
O/T but the MP Mr Waterson will face no charges. No surprise there then. He has made a compliant to the Metropolitan police and the PCC.
87 is that the same Merrill Lynch who called the US housing market so well they lost $8bn and sacked their CEO?
99. They will be thrown into the harbour at the next party.
87. Oh yes, those charts cleary show that we’re around 18 months behind the US housing cycle and that we have much further to fall. It’s diffent here all right.
94. Well, my old mucker, shall we actually go over what I said? Here it is:
“Tell you what Mark, why doesn’t your dismal little party just stick to its solemn promise, and to its name - liberal DEMOCRATS - and give us the referendum you promised?
I guarantee turnout will be somewhat higher than single figures.”
The “referendum you promised” clearly means the national referendum you, er, promised. The one you promised on the Constitution. The national one. You know, the one on the Constitution. The one you promised.
Face it, you’re just an embarrassment, you and your party.
You go on and on about democracy in the Liberal Democrats, about handing power to the people, but when it comes to it, you lie to the people, and break your most solemn promise, just so you can hand more power to a distant bureaucratic elite. Just because you are scared of losing.
The Lib Dems are laughable hypocrites. They are pointless.
105. *different*
Changing subject again , Hamburg has state Parliament elections on Sunday . Current position CDU 61 seats SPD 41 seats Greens 17 seats . Pretty certain that CDU will lost their overall majority as polls show Die Linke will get represention and FDP too in some polls reach the 5% threshold .
New thread - Are you ready to fly blind on Ken v Boris?
106 “The Lib Dems are laughable hypocrites. They are pointless.”
I was never really sure what the LibDems are for. I understand the term Liberal but what do LibDems do?
From what I have seen from their sexual practices, I can only see them as the Trousers Down Party. I imagine their party conference consists of 1000 delegates wqalking round with their trousers around their ankles.
110, acting as abused girlfriend to Labour’s bullyboy man?
If Clegg had anything about him he could help give Labour a right kicking with the referendum, but instead he contrives to break a manifesto pledge, irritate his own colleagues and save Labour from a potentially massive humiliation.
79. I’d be having a bit of that on Sanford if its around when i get home. I already have layed off position on the Huckster so have room to play about.
seanT having one of his ‘rabid’ days I see.
103: LOL!
64 Actually one of those referenda is in Heath’s (a supposed rebel) constituency. Rather wise of him I think.
103 No it was a lot more than that.
The lefties’ madness in full flow today - you can almost understand how Ceausescu didnt read the writing on the wall.
the independent newspaper carried a secondary leader on the threat to a President Obama from right-wing extremists.
i think the scenario is more depressing: if President Obama upsets the same people bothered by the Kennedy brothers, he may find himself another victim of a “crazy lone gunman.”
this time the lone assassin will, of corse, be a right-wing extremist.
frere
devon, uk
freewheelingf@gmail.com
Obama is a leader
A leader has a vision—Obama has a vision, i.e. generating a sense of hope to create a change in the way politics is practiced.
A leader inspires a shared vision—Obama continually and effectively communicates his vision about an exciting and highly attractive future for the country; he has an absolute and total personal belief in the vision of hope that he openly articulates and is very confident in his abilities to make extraordinary things happen.
A leader models the way—Obama clearly and distinctively gives voice to his values; he isn’t just representing himself, he speaks about acting on behalf of the whole country. Obama models the way by earning the right and the respect to lead through direct involvement and action; people follow first the person, then the plan. Obama has attracted thousands and thousands of followers; now he is outlining his plan to lead the country.
A leader must challenge the process—Obama articulates a different way of doing politics; he is promoting a challenge to the status quo of doing politics. Obama indicates that innovation and change require experimenting and taking risks; he is more than ready to engage in this process and is inviting his followers to join him in this process of creating a new direction in the political arena.
A leader enables others to act—Obama demonstrates, through his past work projects, his work in the Senate and campaign management, the ability to work with a solid team of people who exemplify a deep confidence and cool competence.
Ultimately, leadership is a relationship—Obama demonstrates his ability to connect with the people of America while his record validates solid and trusting relationships with the people he works with.
Obama is the type of leader that America and the world needs; he has established his ability to reach out to the American people from all areas of the economic, political and social fabric; he will use this same skill and ability to reach out to the world leaders to make the world a better place for the 21st century.
Maria Lynch, Leadership Tutor, Canada
90 Mr Burdett - does your strange opinions of Senator Obama come from spending a long period of time in the US?
Malcolm