Who’ll win the Wisconsin ad war?
February 17th, 2008
Will going negative turn it round for Hillary?
One of the great joys of the internet, YouTube and fast video streaming is that we can keep up to date with rapidly moving contests like the current ad war between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Wisconsin.
In the latest stage of the fight for the Democratic nomination the Hillary camp has gone negative - the latest TV ad featured above. This is a big gamble. There’s a massive danger that this approach could turn many voters off. Even worse it could make the supporters of your opponent even more determined to vote.
The is how the Obama camp has retaliated as both sides spend big money buying expensive air-time.After eight consecutive defeats Clinton badly needs to impede the Obama bandwagon on Tuesday. Even cutting the margin down to a few points could be hailed as a great victory.
In the Democratic nomination betting the Obama price has eased to 0.44/1. Thanks to my 50/1 and 33/1 bets on Obama for the White House placed in 2005 and 2006 I have been able to take other positions so I do very well now whatever happens. I’m not totally convinced that Hillary is out of it yet.
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Obama’s is definitely a lot more slick and despite being an attack ad, doesn’t come across as one at first glance. Hillary seriously needs to up her game if she’s going to start making any headway.
Reposted from previous thread.
ukpaul @ 107.
Those Pennsylvania match ups will be a blow to Hillary, especially as the demographics favour her will also enforce Obama’s line of attack as to electablity with Democrat voters and the Super Delegates.
The new Oregon numbers are also bad for Hillary -
Clinton 42% McCain 45% - Obama 49% McCain 40%.
The latest Gallup tracking poll has Obama at his largest lead over Clinton 49/42 -
Is this another sign that a tipping point is close and that Obama has broken the voter deadlock?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104383/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
The ‘Baltimore Sun’ looks inside the Clinton campaign -
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/bal-te.clinton17feb17,0,1052310,full.story
3 Someone asked the same question on Friday when Rasmussen had Obama leading 48-40 , strangely they didn’t yesterday when the lead was halved . Clearly he is and should be a hot favourite but around £1,000 has been wagered today on Betfair on Clinton at 3.3 to 3.45 odds .
NR to be nationalised!
Mark @ 5.
That’s a valid point. But as usual it’s the overall trend that will mark out a critical point in the contest. And the trend has been for Obama to take a lead over Clinton in the nationals, pull away in the elected delegates, out finance her, peel away Super Delegates from Hillary and begin to ‘win’ the match ups against McCain.
Wagering on Betfair as a trading option is sensible. 3 and bits is skinny to me although the Iowa Markets are around 27 presently.
Gabble @ 6.
Have the Liberal Democrats taken power in a coup and not told us?
NRGBPLC WOW!! NuLab gets ooolllddd!
6. Link?
10 “BBC has learned” in its latest news flash line. So someone has briefed the BBC.
10 - BBC running headline. Promises details soon…
8/10 - On BBC News now
6 .”NR to be nationalised!”
Will Bradford and Bingley follow?
Woo-hoo!! So I am going to own a bit of Northern Pig-in-a-Poke. All for a mere £100 billion - when the market cap was buttons. Brilliant! What economic miracle-workers Brown and Darling are. How I look forward to them repeating the trick with Bradford and Bingley, Nationwide, The Derbyshire, Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays…..
No wonder the Poles are leaving.
Suppose the delegate count is inconclusive. Do we know what the procedure would be? Is there any possibility of Michigan and Florida voting again, last, this time with votes that count? I’ve seen it losely said ‘they do it all again’ but it would have to have a much compressed timetable, perhaps all on the same day?
Lets’s nationalise everything, put the taxes up and give the money to unmarried mothers!
Ssuper Labour!!!!!!!!!!!!!
14. No it wont. You show me the logic behind the question.
This will do a bit of damage. How much remains to be seen.
The toon needs a new sponsor as well as a new team now then.:(
The NR thing could very well end up being Labour’s ERM moment if this carries on.
14 - What’s Bradford & Bingley got to do with anything? Don’t tar them all with the same brush.
Betfair have just opened markets on the March 4th primaries .
Has Darling offered to resign?
19 - Statement from Darling at 4PM!
Will the government carry on loaning people 125% of the value of their homes? - http://www.northernrock.co.uk/mortgages/together.asp
New Labour - New Usury
Ave it 08 @ 17.
Are those new Watford Conservative Policies?
If Hillary is perceived as the first to have gone negative, I think that risks playing very badly with the Super-delegates. The trick if you are a superdelegate - and want the favour of POTUS in years to come - is to time your joining the bandwagon of the eventual winner before it appears inevitable. I think there is a real risk for Hillary that the recent trickle of converts to Obama will become a flood, before real damage is done to the party. Texas and Ohio may well have become irrelevent in a few weeks time.
19 - the Toon: sponsored by Gordon Brown!
LOLOLOLOLOL
Labour = most incompetent goverment of all time!
25 - LOL
New policy: All unmarried mothers have to pay £25 ‘congestion charge’ to enter central London!
“What’s Bradford & Bingley got to do with anything?”
High rates of money market borrowing, aggressive growth during the bubble with lots of lending to the amateur Buy-to-Let market (aka the UK’s sub-prime), 70% fall in share price, write-downs due to sub-prime exposure…
21&22.Why now on a Sunday afternoon and not at the Despatch box in Parliament???!!
30 - market sensitive innit.
I haven’t commented on the US elections much basically because before January I’ve not taken much interest in US politics. However, it seems to me that potentially the biggest winner out of the ongoing battle between Clinton and Obama could be John McCain and the Republicans.
Just as McCain profited within the GOP race because there were so many candidates promoting an alternate view, now that that has been resolved and Republicans acquiesce behind him so he can profit while Obama and Clinton slug it out.
Whoever, is leading the Democratic race (currently Obama) has now to face two opponents firing criticisms from different directions. Whereas McCain only has the leading Democrat to aim at. Whoever is leading the Democrat race is using up resources that might have been better used fighting the Republicans in the fall.
By making his potential opponents fight on two fronts he may be able to force a wedge between them and split the Democratic party to a certain extent. Most importantly he can limit the number of independents that turn to the Democrats and that may be significant.
That does not necessarily mean that McCain can win the GE but it does mean he has the opportunity to limit the damage to the Republican party and in doing so perhaps dampen some of the enthusiasm within the Democratic Party before the real campaign begins.
On NR - Oh dear the best laid plans of mice not men…….
29 - and have they borrowed a penny of the BoE? No.
20 Alex, the Bradford and Bingley has lost a quarter of its market value this past week. Doesn’t look good…
27 So along with the rest of us the supporters of Manchester United, Sunderland and Middlesborough get to be sponsors of Newcastle United….
Troubled bank Northern Rock is to be nationalised by the government, the BBC has learned. From bbc website
34 - and that has never happened before?
How much are the Govt going to pay for the shares?
27 - Don’t start, I’ll just go and throw myself off the cliff now…
Newcastle United - The first team to be sponsored by the British Government. You couldn’t make it up!
Back on topic, doesn’t Darling have to give a pre-budget report this week? Could be a very bad week for him if so.
35 Keegan arrives - and soon the club gets sponsored by the Govt. Truly, he is the Messiah…
Sky’s initial take on NR
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-1305760,00.html?f=rss
32. The republican machine has apparently concluded Obama is their opponent and as much as some internally dont like Mccain there is plenty of that machine that is going to be behind him.
Interestingly McCain has already gone for Obama’s rhetoric and lack of solidity suggesting that giving hope with words only and nothing to back it up is spreading fallacy.
The old goat means business.
Question - if Northern Rock Mortgages are taken onto Govt books, will that reduce Net Govt debt?
37 “How much are the Govt going to pay for the shares?”
For each Northern Rock share you held, you will be given four in British Leyland….
Which Minister gets Northern Rock for their day to day portfolio?
43 - HAHAHAHAHA
38 - next club to be nationalised = WATFORD
Will they dramatically cut savings rates?
Footsie will probably be off tomorrow!
Vince Cable made a very good case for nationalisation. He comes out the best on this. Wonder how the markets will respond.
47 - you can get odds-against at betfair
31.”30 - market sensitive innit.”. Yes it is, but I don’t imagine this was dreamed up this weekend on the back of a fag packet either?
Not surprised though, it shows the same level of incompetence displayed throughout this slow motion car crash.
48 Brown should have signed up Cable in the Transfer Window….
33 - probably not, although we now don’t know - we do know someone other than NR borrowed from the Bank of England, but after NR borrowing caused the run, they decided not to announce who any more.
For the taxcpayer tocome out of this alive they will either a) have to sell off chunks of the banks assets or b) wait untila bank crippled by its loan obligatiosn gets on a more even keel.
Do you think they’ll be another run on the bank tomorrow? Who would want money in the Govt?
BTW amusing to get to see what financiers and financial reporters wear at weekends
48 Cable though recognises that nationalisation is not an end game, it would have been better than unlimited credit and protects taxpayer cash but it does not resolve the future of Northern Rock.
So whither now? Its not proved possible to sell it as a going concern, will that be more possible in 3, 6, 12 months? Will Treasury have to manage it down and sell off the mortgage and deposit books? Can the charitable arm still operate - with taxpayers cash? Seriously can it continue to sponsor NU?
55 - Quite. There are bigger issues at stake
Perhaps the financial geniuses Brown-Brownshirt and Darling-shirt-off-back have a great idea to fix their fincial mess.
By having their own Nationalised Bank they can make Billions - because banks make billions right.
At the same time they introduce Sharia Law Bonds so that Terrorists can plan their future in Britain under a Global Caliphate.
Perhaps they’ll merge it with the Post Office.
Leaves the prospect of the Govt. having to (i) abandon the shareholders (including many, many small shareholders in the NE who bought them) and (ii) evict those of its aspirational voters who bought into the dream of home-ownership.
Well, some excitement in British politics at last.
On topic though, I hope that Clinton gets slaughtered at the polls the way that she was in South Carolina after using ads like this.
Negative politics is what has got us into this mess, I’d like to see it, and its perpetrators, royally destroyed. Then I can rest happy (and the UK politicians who are the same should be equally disgusted with themselves).
Despite the plaudits for Vince Cable, it’s going to be interesting to see which opposition party is actually best placed to exploit the Govt’s problems. If the Govt suffers simply because of the images that Nationalisation conjures up, then will the LibDem line of “about time too” work? Or will the Tories be better placed by always rejecting Nationalisation, even if they didn’t ever go as far as to talk of any specific alternatives?
I have to say I’m more disappointed than anything myself. I dont think the government had a lot of choice but to enable intervention which many other central banks around the world would have done.
The mistakes that the government made however were:
-Putting political needs before good monetary sense.
-Getting too involved, too deep and too long. I believe that the crisis sbroke on a Friday and I thought a pain as it was it wasnt a massive crisis and would stabilise. I even looked at its shares to buy. By the Sunday, under a fuller analysis I realised this was a major league problem (no i didnt buy the shares). I’m sure the government knew it too but they kept on lending.
-By lending so much for so long they crippled a takeover because a straight commercial effort was skewed by the need to meet government requirements. A straight takeovern early on might have done the job, though the shareholders woudl have got nothing (JC Flowers bid pretty much rated the shares at nothing), the job losses woudl have been sizeable. Put together that would have looked pretty ugly PR wise but it would probably have worked.
-The belief somewhere that somehow private companies would play ball and give the government what they wanted. Despite the warm words from Branson, there was no way private concerns were going to meet the demands if they wanted to make any money for years to come. That has come to a head and the Branson bandwagon within government has come to a halt because Branson has done his sums and he knows he’s committing commercial suicide to deliver the pre-requisites, assuming he actually can deliver.
-This leading with government demands (understandable given the sums involved but the sums should not have been committed) in turn caused an almighty problem with some bidders dropping out because they didnt think they were being a) given realistic terms and b) were not on a level playing field (the Brnason bamdwagon again)
The othert issue, probably going to be ignored is that the bank had a business model that simply didnt make the best of the good times. If you look at the banks offering some very good interest rate deals on current and saving accounts recently theres a reason, they were trying to draw cash in to hoard because they saw problems. There wasnt a huge sign that NR was doing the same in the market, though sosmeone can disavow me of that.
Discussion about what the Govt will give the shareholders.
Does this open the prospect that the Govt will be effectively paying money for a company that was already mainly funded by itself?
NR - a pretty dreadful day for the government, if only because they made it so clear they didn’t want to go to Nationalisation.
Even the word - nationalisation! - reminds everyone of ugly lefties in donkey jackets. Ugh.
Labour know this very well - so they were desperate to avoid it. Yet it has happened. Oh dear. What a ridiculous series of disasters this Brown government has presided over.
The main problem here, for Brown, is not the economics - it’s the PR.
The government is now perceived as being sh1te. Not evil. Just shite. Clownlike. Stupid. Inept. Girning. Labour ministers have big red noses you can squeeze to make a hooting noise.
Indeed, Alistair Darling, as I understand it, even has a special plastic flower on his lapel - that squirts water in the face of Jose Manuel Barrosso every time there is an Ecofin meeting.
To be laughed at is, politically, worse than to be hated. Major was doomed once Steve Bell’s vest-tucked-into-y-fronts image took hold of the public consciousness.
I’d say Brown’s Labour government is now entering that fatal minefield.
Say “Gordon Brown’s government” and people just laugh, contemptuously.
So now we know that nationalisation is how Brown is going to end “boom and bust”. Nothing goes bust - because the Govt. rescues it. Sorted.
Today’s Rasmussen tracker very slight narrowing of Obama’s lead over Clinton now 47-44 yesterday 47-43 .
63. There may well be a new issue of shares at some point in teh future at some level like 10p a throw or something.
Anyone still holding may as well hope they can sell in the morning though I suspect the shares will be suspended pronto.
Those institutions (and small shareholders) that bought in may well be talking to their lawyers again as we speak.
I understand shareholding is a gamble and you can lose but equally theres nothing wrong with fighting your corner as a shareholder. They are not all massive institutions and given that open share trading is a major driver in a free market economy this wont look good.
The Nationalisation timing is interesting.
It looks very likely Bradford and Bingley is next.
Britain could not underwrite 2 northern crocks at once.
Nrock. Why Sunday?
Why not go the whole hog and get it out in an interview on Sunday with Marr? Isn’t he official now. Bit like the Dimbleby’s and royal weddings.
Darling going to have to shovel alot of s*** and quickly before Balls comes in.
Darling is famous for his loyalty. This worm will not turn [-over his boss].
66. Remarkably consistent polling all round for Wisconsin but the problem for Hillary is that she has a very small group of apparent dont knows to now pull into her camp. Somewhere in all the movement of voters espcially post Edwards drop out and uncertains who have made upo their minds i suspect there is a section of Hillary support at one time that has moved to Obama. If she can shift them she can win, just. It will be very tough but all she needs is a wobble at the point where they have to make a call and she has a chance.
The only other advantage she has is that i think her core support is more robust. Obamas coalition is doing him well but i suspect needs all teh motivation it can get to keep it up.
I have take a bet on Hillary in Wisconsin at a decent price hoping to bet/lay as I’m not sure, as yet, she can do it.
38. Maybe, but in the 90s Tranmere Rovers were sponsored by Wirral council.
Job cuts announced, i think.
Bradford & Bingley will not be nationalised IF it came to it, comprendez?
Compensation for shareholders being decided by independent valuation of company based on the company being run without Govt support.
Ie. None?
So the decision on the ownership of Northern Rock has now been taken after some 6 months dithering. But what are they going to do with it?
Best thoughts are that in two or years time there will be little remaining of the company and the tax payer will be left with a bill in the region of £10bn. The necessary rationalisation has been delayed by several months and further delay will result in even less of the business remaining and a much higher bill for us all.
Agree nationalisation is the best solution now - but it should never have come to this. NR was the first big test that the regulatory regime put in place so quickly by Gordon Brown was severely tested, and that regime failed. The BoE had protested over a decade ago that it needed to retain its position as regards regulation of banking but Balls and Brown knew better.
They should have recognised when the queues formed, that Northern Rock as it stood was finished and had the expertise and means available to have it taken over quickly - but they had got rid of that and not replaced it. Now it could be years before its dealt with properly and the Government will be facing legal challenges from debtors and shareholders as regards its actions.
BCCI, Barings and others failed have, the cost was born by shareholders, commercial debtors, the BoE working with financial institutions to manage the distribution of business and mitigate losses. Banking failures aren’t unknown.
69. To have it in place for the markets on Monday. Its not just political, its logistical. Doing it in the middle of the week would have been even worse.
Looks like the shares are suspended already but I havent seen confirmation as I didnt watch the statement.
73 Nobody was sugesting it was socialist person.
Bradford and Bingley is heading the way of Northern Rock. This may mean withdrawal queues outside their branches. Labour increased Britain’s national debt by 10% to prop it up. Labour has to sell Britain to Islamists with Sharia-Law Bonds to pay for it. It is not possible to repeat the process for 2 banks at a time. So, NRK is nationalised before B&B hits the proverbial.
Which lucky company or agency is going to get the pleasure of auditing Northern Rock accounts this year?
Curious. Alistair Darling still believes Northern Rock’s loan book is good. You would think the Treasury would, since September, have had the time to do some research on this and tell him it isn’t.
78, Can you show me how it is heading the same way as Northern Rock? It coudl be but you havent explained why at all.
Can you show me its business model? can you show me its assets versus its debts and where it gets its funding from and how that breaks down?
In an interview with Andrew Neil, Geoffrey Robinson said the new regulatory system was designed by…. Ed Balls…. Though not with a view to crippling Darling, I suspect.
The irony will not be lost on the weasel.
Nor the worm.
81. Certainly. I shall start preparing the documentation for you immediately. It will take about 3 weeks to 1 year.
Dont go away.
74, None or almost none…figures of 10p a share or less possibly.
This was one big announcement that Gordon inexplicably decided he didn’t want to make himself.
83. You cant then…..so you’ve nothing to back up your supposition.
I wonder will there be more withdrawals of money by depositors?
Apparantly Gordon only gave the go-ahead a few hours ago, the Chancellor wanted to announce on Friday. Oh my.
80 In reality , the vast majority of the loan book IS good . Even though a number of the loans were risky and unwise , most of the borrowers will make every efforts to keep up repayments and in the small % of cases that they fail the loans are backed up by bricks and mortar . The 55 billion that is supposed to be at risk is in reality even in a worst case scenario no more than around 5 billion .
Yokel, I’ll help you out.
In the last 12 months Bradford and Bingley lent out £8.3 billion. They took deposits of £1.3 billion. 6,170 of their customers are currently in arrears, with loans up to 110% of the purchase price of the property (so given they’re a buy-to-let specialist that’s now 160% of the value of new-build city centre flats).
Robert Peston believes it’s a certainty that hedge funds will sue the Govt over nationalisation.
NR ends in farce and embarassment, as one or two posters predicted some months ago.
Mark - look at the number taking payment holidays. More interestingly, walk down to your local courts and see what percentage of the applications for possession orders are “Northern Rock versus x”.
When you lend 125% of the value of an asset in a market where the asset price is falling, saying it’s backed up by the asset is of little consolation, even if instead of asset you use the words “bricks and mortar”.
91. There may be a case for arguing that the government created a false market in the shares, but I wouldn’t give legal action too high a chance of success.
Didn’t Northern Rock sell off the most proiftable part of its loan book a month or so ago?
Straying further off-topic, given that Northern Rock offshored a chunk of their assets to Jersey, what chance do the vulture funds who bought in have of keeping that bit out of the nationalisation deal?
90. How many loan customers do they have in total?
The other thing is how much of their money is coming from the wholesale money markets?
It’d be interesting to see how much those arrears are because although they may have arrears that doesnt mean all will stay that way, or indeed that others will not start to go into arrears.
If B&B gets in trouble it’ll get bought.
Clinton’s superdelegate lead is narrowing….
http://bp2.blogger.com/_qJGvnOCBQcA/R7etEjGXnNI/AAAAAAAAAC0/08cqOWeMNbs/s1600-h/image001.gif
From
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
97 - Yep, people forget that Northern Rock might have been taken over, had it not been for the Govt agreeing with the BoE’s view that “banks must be allowed to fail”. Until they changed their mind.
Wonder what sort of salary Ron Sandler has managed to negotiate?
96. Which is why the government extended guarantees (to lenders to NR) to keep NR’s credit rating high with the rating agencies. If we are talking about the same Jersey based investment vehicle, it had a proviso that enabled investors to get their cash back if NR’s credit rating dropped with the agencies. Given I heard figures of 50 bil were raised through that, no one could afford the rating to fail and possible demands for instant returns of cash.
100. A huge one, and good luck to him.
96
Vulture funds, what do you mean? Are you talking about ord. shares?
93: yes, but now ask yourself - ‘what proportion of Northern Rock’s loan book originated in the last year?’, and ‘what proportion was at 125% LTV?’.
I suspect the answers are (a) no more than a third, and (b) no more than a third. That means that only 10% or so of the book ’super-high-risk’, and even there the bank should ultimately recover 70%+ of the money lent.
The problem here is (a) NRK has a silly business model dependent on wholesale funding, (b) the government would not allow a purchaser in September last year to fire the entire staff of NRK and close all the branches. If the government had been willing - at the beginning of the crisis - to allow a purchaser to close down NRK and live off the book run-off, then we wouldn’t be in this situation. It is merely that the government - cynically and foolishly - tried to prevent North-Eastern job losses at the general tax payers’ expense.
99. Morgan Stanley reportedly has an interest in BB.
85 “It is right that I make this hard and difficult choice, yes, I do not flinch from the long term and hard choices as those in the party opposite do. It is a decision for the long term stability, hard earned stability after the disastrous boom and bust policies of the Tory years, policies Mr Cameron supported, we remember well his skulking in the shadows as Britain was forced out of the the ERM.
This decision is one for the whole of the United Kingdom, stronger together, weaker apart. So let us first send out this message; we will not flinch from long term tough choices. This government is spending more on ensuring banking stability than any previous government, 18 years, yes, 18 years of Conservative Government and not a single penny towards protection and guarantee of hard working peoples savings. Labour makes your savings safer; £100 billion invested this year to that purpose, to ensure our communities safer, savings secure”
86 In the same way we predicted the outcome of Northern Rock.
The same way we predicted Brown’s tax raid on pensions would destroy pensions.
The same we predicted open uncontrolled invasion immigration would result in high house prices, low pay, oversttretched services & terrorism attacks.
Nobody needs a socialists to say prove it. The good news is the Labour experiment is approaching its endgame. Labour was out of power for 18 years for a reason. They gave you the benefit of doubt and all you did was prove their suspicions right.
Tomorrow, the sun will rise. I can kinda figure it out all by myself.
107. I take it that socialist you refer to is me?
Oh this is too much.
If B&B was going to get bought ‘if it got into trouble’, how has it not already been bought? It’s sitting there on the stock market with a big “60% off” sign hanging on it.
As for Morgan Stanley buying it, I assume that was satire. You do know Morgan Stanley hold Tier 3 capital (mark-to-myth, or ‘magic beans’) to the value of more than two and a half times their total equity?
By vulture funds I mean specialists in buying shares in companies in distress, or very high yield bonds. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulture_fund
Didn’t Alistair Darling have a NR mortgage? I hope that other politicans have declared their interest.
Given that Lloyds TSB took a look at NR’s loan books and walked away, there must be something toxic which put them off.
Can NuLab fall below 30%, so much for Brown’s fiscal arithmetic.
109. Simply a story, hence the word ‘reportedly’.
I just don’t understand how the loan book can be good, yet no one wants to buy it!
This also reinforces the Brown dithering line. Not only from Septembet but the fact that this was put to Brown as the only solution on Friday but it was lunchtime today before he made his mind up.
Also how des this fit in with competition rules from both here and Europe? A government owned bank is surely unfair to other banks.
103: I’d guess he’s referring to the two large hedge funds who recently bought something like a quarter of the shares as a speculation. They’re likely to lead any legal action, but I’d have thought it on stony ground, and I doubt if we should lose any sleep on their behalf. Without knowing the state of the negotiations it’s impossible to judge sensibly, but I doubt if a Tory suggestion that this is a Return to Clause Four will really wash with the public, as it’s obviously a special case, and reluctant at that.
On topic - the ads seem to me a score draw on issues - both sides are obviously quoting selectively. Clinton’s is more memorable because it cites a specific fact, that Obama has refused a Wisconsin debate - Obama’s response that hey, he’s debated a lot in other places, is damage limitation. But I wouldn’t think either ad was a deal-clincher, nor vicious enough to prevent reconciliation later.
104.How much of the decision making back at the beginning of the NR crisis was based on political expediency due to a possible Autumn GE, rather than sound long term management of the nations finances?
112 It is not that noone would want to buy it , I would buy it at the right price ( if I had the money ) but my right price would certainly be too low to be acceptable .
208 - yes, Yokel, you are an evil hireling of Labour.
On topic - Clinton’s camp say this goes ‘all the way to June’ - I’m still buying more ‘Republican win’ at Betfair, which I think I will be able to sell at a profit as we get to May and McCain has been campaigning for three months as the candidate, while the Democrats continue to run attack ads against each other.
208
Glad to see that you think 100bn in the hole is a laff.
112 “Also how does this fit in with competition rules from both here and Europe? A government owned bank is surely unfair to other banks.”
You really think a Bank run by Brown and Darling is going to send alarm bells running through the corridors of Europe? Oh yes, it is really going to mop up business….even the Swiss Bankers will be quaking at the new kid in town.
Today has dismantled the notion of Labour’s “economic competence” -and with it, the only reason that Brown could muster to surface from the Bunker. He will have to be dragged out, screaming, to face PMQ’s…
To respond to the query above the charitable arm, from Darling’s statement:
“Ron Sandler expects to be in Newcastle tomorrow to discuss the business and meet staff and their representatives. His proposals will also cover the Northern Rock Foundation, where he will commit to guaranteeing a minimum income of £15m per year in 2008, 2009 and 2010. This will be paid directly by Northern Rock, and would be a condition of any sale if it were sold in this time.”
I could post the whole statement here but it’s long, and having criticised others for lengthy posts I’d better not. Key point apart from those mentioned above is that the intention remains to sell to the private sector as soon as a suitable opportunity arises - the suggestion is that the taxpayer wlil get more out of that than the fire-sale offers being made at the moment. There is some detailed analysis of the two bids - essentially says Virgin’s looks convincing but they want too much profit, while the alternative bid injects less capital and looks less secure and more dependent on government guarantees.
My God. Taxpayers Alliance being invited to comment on Sky.
This article in the Times this morning seems a little dated now.
Northern Rock bank bosses offer Alistair Darling 10% stake to save bid
115. An acceptable price = a solvent price I presume. Dodgy investment for the taxpayer then.
OT Cyprus presidential elections.
After 98% counted, incumbent President Tassos Papadopoulos is set to be eliminated after the first round after taking 31.77% and trailing former Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides with 33.54% and Communist leader Demetris Christofias with 33.27%
Vince Cable will be massively boosted in the respect he has (which is already large) by correctly predicting that this was the best way out of the Northern Rock mess. The questions that will be asked now are: 1. Why did it take some long for the Govt to act
2. How much has been lost as a result of 6 months of dithering
3. Did Brown/Darling put off nationalisation for so long simply because the Lib Dems suggested it?
The Tories have been lost on this issue; knee-jerking to start with because they didn’t understand what nationalisation actually meant, and were stuck in the battles of the 80’s; and then pushing a solution that would have given the private sector all the benefit, and the public sector all of the risk.
PS Will the Lib Dems get a poll boost because of their position on NR? Financial competence isn’t a reason people usually give for voting Lib Dem (stop chuckling!
) - will it become so in the future?
126 No. It will just remind people that the LibDems chose the wrong new leader….
Vince didnt say it was the best way - but the least worst! Northern Rock is a disater but there is no sense in letting Branson or anyone else make a killing at our expense.
Look forward to hearing Osborne bleating that nationalisation is a disaster when he has no other suggestions to put forward.
Lib Dem proposed a bill to enable Nationalisation some time ago. I am afraid job losses will be fairly large, not because of nationalisation but because Northern Rock bank is broke. A payment of more than about 50p to shareholders would be scandalous!
120 Nick, firstly I think that The Northern Rock foundation has a good record and purpose and to make any new ownership take on the commitment of the now defunct Northern Rock plc sensible. The covenant though was for 5% of Northern Rock profits to go to the Foundation - there aren’t any profits just debts. It’s now a taxpayer subsidy to a charity.
The question that is still unanswered is whether the Government has learned from this and a new regulatory regime, fit for purpose, will be set up. The recent announcements from Darling do not entirely convince.
129 meant to drop the pseudonym.
125 - As i said above, I doubt it’s so clear cut.
Assuming the public react negatively, the question is whether this is as a simple result of the negative connotations of “Nationalisation”, or whether it is because of the dithering and the Govt not getting their preferred solution.
It is reasonable to think that the latter has mostly already been factored into the polls, the former however is more likely to benefit the Conservatives who opposed it.
If people think negatively of a (forced) nationalisation, it is unlikely that they are going to grant political credit to a party that have been campaigning for it from day one.
117. Just because she says that to stop the flow of delegates now doesn’t mean it will get there. If she doesn’t perform in Texas/Ohio then the maths of the main race will be against her. If the superdelegates make it clear they’re not going to overturn it for her, she will drop out sooner rather than be humiliated. She wants this Presidency badly, but she’s smart enough not to ruin her Senate career over it once she knows the game is up.
128 so Vince says it is a disaster an offers no alternative but that makes him different from Osborne saying it is a disaster and offering no alternative?
The alternatives were available early on, they aren’t now and both Lib Dems and Conservatives have made that point. It’s a disaster that will cost tax payers money at a time when public finances are stretched.
Anyway, in other news.
Anyone holidaying in former Yugoslavia this summer?
People should also remember the Democratic party won’t split over this fighting. The camps of each campaign are actually pretty small seeing that its only been six months of a split, this isn’t the Blair-Brown decade long saga, polarising the whole party. It’s also not an ideological split and the whole party will come behind the nominee.
This is unlike the case on the Republican side, where a significant faction of the party still isn’t satisfied with John McCain. To appease them he will have to make concessions which will be used to paint him as a George Bush type by Democrats come the general election.
That’s fair, Socrates - I anticipate she’ll do well enough in Texas and Ohio to keep going, but not well enough to be reinstated as favourite. I have very much bought into the Kos arithmetic, or “math”, which says she can win Texas by 10 points but come out roughly evens on delegates. She’ll probably cry again when that happens…
Well what an unbelievable day, can’t wait to see the reaction in the City tomorrow morning! What a shame that Snowflakes doesn’t defend the economic record of the government on here any more! Once again full marks to the MP for Twickenham, and what a great shame that there are no other MP’s who have shown the required economic nouse since this crisis began, Gideon and DC included in that!
Hopefully the pictures of a solemn looking Darling will be replayed over and over again as many times as Lamont walking down from the steps of the Treasury on Black Wednesday, I noticed there was only the bland HM Treasury sign behind Darling, you could have put new Labour new Britain behind there as well! Were nationalised banks in NuLab’s vision of their new Britain!
Osbourne quoted by the BBC:
“After months of dither and delay we have ended up with this catastrophic decision. We now have the situation where the government will be making decisions on whether or not to foreclose on people’s loans in a falling housing market.”
Interesting point - so does the Government make people homeless or does the Government subsidise people’s mortgages with taxpayers money in order to save political face? Seems to be a lose lose situation to me.
112. Woody662
It’s partly caution. At a time when the housing market is in decline Bank’s generally are attempting to reduce their exposure to housing debt. Also a lot of the key players have taken significant hits and are trying to re-build their capital bases. Even if NR has a strong book there are unlkikely to be many potential buyers. Yes there may be a few prepared to buy NR’s assets at a hugh discount but the Government and Shareholders would have opposed this.
138 - operational independence. The Government is no more going to make the decisions on whether to foreclose on people’s houses than it makes the decision what to show on Dispatches, even though C4 is publicly owned.
136. The result on March 4th won’t just depend on delegates though. If she can show she’s still a force popular vote-wise then the superdelegates might not turn against her. But if the popular vote is less than ten points in both states then she might get a few phone calls threatening big endorsements for Obama - Gore, Pelosi etc - causing her to bow out.
140. That may well be the reality of it but will people see it that way?
After all I can’t remember a Government not being blamed because of negative press about a nationalised company or industry.
128. Surely it is better that Richard Branson makes a killing and we lose no money, than Branson making nothing and us spending billions?
After hitherto failed to specify any meaningful strategy to manage the NR fiasco and are now saying that they will not support nationalisation is political opportunism of the first order. HM’s Official Opposition is not meant to simply gainsay the Govt but demonstrate how they would manage crises were they in charge. Unless they come up with a credible alternative to nationalisation, they will look extremely foolish.
It’s inconceivable, surely, that the Govt will have no overall strategic say in how Northern Rock is being run in future.
124. Any tips for the run-off, Andrea?
140 It is the Government that people blame for closing Post Offices, it’ll be the Government that has to defend the layoffs, branch closures, repossessions.
143 No it is better that Branson makes nothing and we make a little bit eventually but there are many other permutations that are possible .
144 - I doubt it. The political cost to the Govt on this will be on the image of the thing, not the detail. In that sense nobody who is at all neutral will care what the Conservatives would have done instead.
146 Who cares. That is excellent news for Cyprus and the world. One less rabid nationalist running a country and a greater chance that Greek and Turkish Cyrpriots and by extension their big brothers can bury the hatchet finally
The truth is, Alistair Darling has played this absolutely right.
He was right to seek a private buy-out, at the same time as making it clear that nationalisation was a genuine option, and not to accept any bids that were not in the taxpayers interests.
The time and money spent on this process has not been wasted because a private buyer will have to be found eventually anyway. Many of the ground rules for a potential sale have now been laid out and the government have demonstrated real strength in not allowing themselves to be panicked into either giving away taxpayers money or NR jobs.
149 That is true but on another level it is rather worrying that the person likely to become Chancellor in the event of them winning a GE does not seem to have a clue as to what he would have done and can only spout rhetoric calling up the 1970’s .
149 - I would agree if the Tories went along - albeit very reluctantly - with nationalisation, but to not provide an alternative will encourage the media to ask ” what would you do” with a defeaning silence in response.
Sensitive to the charge, Osbourne is now saying on BBC News(18.26 hrs) that the BoE should lead a plan to protect interests of savers and taxpayers and then bring the bank back to market in due course. Not sure how this differs from the proposed nationalisation.
152 - On the other hand, I would hope that it is the civil servants and experts who provide all the options, with a Chancellor only choosing between them. I would be even more worried if a Chancellor was supposed to do it all himself, which is essentially what any shadow has to do. It’s hardly surprising that an Economist by trade would appear to shine in this respect.
150. I certainly won’t be shedding a tear for Papadopoulos!
From Darling’s statement:
The Bill gives the Government a general power to acquire the shares in, or assets and liabilities, of institutions.
Just to be clear is this bill intended just to nationalise Northern Rock or is there a wider agenda here?
Full text of Darling’s statement:
http://tinyurl.com/3bja88
143. Spot on.
I fail to understand the Lib Dem stance on nationalisation and how they can benefit from this issue other than possibly in the very short term. The Government potentially faces hugh embarressment on this issue in relation to the UK’s financial standing and the management of NR’s book. Also either the Panel will come up with a high level of compensation for shareholders for the taxpayers to meet or the shareholders will go to the courts where issues relating to the Human Rights Act 1998 will be raised. Don’t forget a large majority of the shareholders are individuals based in the North East.
154. Given that this matter has been under review for months you would have thought that a switched on shadow chancellor, who may lack the skill set of an economist, would have pulled together a knowledgeable team who could advise him of realistic alternatives.
154 (con) - the most important characteristics in Govt ministers, IMO, are decisiveness and consistency, and ability to defend any decision once taken.
Ministers take over Govt departments all the time knowing next to nothing about their respective roles. It is not that which determines whether they are considered successful or not.
Incidentally today’s Mail on Sunday carries a story hich first appeared on my website on Wednesday under the title “Jack’s Eye”
(www.vote4barry.blogspot.com)
156 - hmm. Mysterious. Are the govt not allowed to buy shares at the moment?
161. I’ve no idea but I can see why it would be considered an unfair practice by the commercial sector.
Whatever the intent, I just get an ominous feeling reading that statement. For example what other organisations do the government think they will need to intercede with?
I hardly see that legislating in such away promotes confidence in the British economy?
158. Frank that’s rather naive. It not a matter of economic theory but a matter of financial intelligence. The Government has spent a lot of tax payers money paying Goldmans and others to research the options and quantify same. Such intelligence is not available to the opposition.
Amid all the blame throwing, one has to ask why there is no action that can be taken against the Northern Rock Management. Would there really have been no court cases if this had been in America?
The correct way of evaluating the Virgin and Thompson bids would be against a properly worked out “base case” of what the Government intended to do with Northern Rock once it had been nationalised. In no way can the base case be the status quo as everyone agrees that is not sustainable.
There has therefore either to be a plan of what the Government now proposes or else the evaluation process of the competitive bids was flawed. Osbourne and Cable were talking about an audit of the mortgage book now being a priority. However, if this has not already been undertaken, the base case cannot have been correctly developed. There was also talk of Sandler starting to work out what he is now going to do.
I cannot believe that this is the case and there must be a well developed course of action already developed including rationalisation and job number proposals . If not, then the whole process is even more of a shambles than thought.
Did any one else notice that during the Q&A session with Darling on SKY, the camera started to slip and it looked as though he was sinking into the ground.
What like a way of raising revenuw when they sell it off?
Mike - agree with you about Hillary. It’s dicey, and I have to confess I haven’t come back in on her yet though I’m very tempted. I think she could still take the nomination but it’s on a knife-edge this one and may well go close to Denver. The key is once again enough damage limitation in this round for her to stay in the race through to March 4th. But is it worth the bet? Possibly!