Will the plagiarism charge hurt Barack?
February 18th, 2008
Can Team Hillary stop Obama from making it ten in a row?
On the eve of the Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries the Clinton team has put out the above video to suggest that Obama is a plagiarist. What you see is an Obama’s speech from Saturday in Wisconsin side-by-side with one made by the governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick speech in 2006.
Interestingly the Obama speech is no longer available on YouTube.
The big question is will it matter? Will it have an impact. Will it help Hillary overcome the average 4.3% polling deficit that indicates that like in every other contest since Super Tuesday she is going to get beaten.
This is tough fight and this time finds Obama finds himself have to deflect attacks from both the likely GOP nominee, John McCain, and Clinton.
The question you always have to ask is whether any votes will switch as a result of this and what impact could it have on voter turnout on both sides. So far a key to the Obama bandwagon has been the enthusiastic way his band of supporters have turned out.
I think that he’ll win both states tomorrow and in doing so will position himself even better for the vital March 4th tests in Ohio and Texas. Latest betting is here.
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I think it just shows how desperate the Hillary camp are to gain some traction in a race that has slipped away.
No.
Can we go off-topic now?
I thought policy was supposed to be more important than words.
That has been the Clinton meme for the past week or did I just dream it?
In any case, she’s plagiarised Obama and, in this case, I doubt she had ‘permission’.
This isn’t exactly Biden’s complete copy of Kinnock. It is two guys are friends with each other emphasising the same point.
Throughout this entire campaign Hilary has been going down, in my estimation. She has now reached Lewinsky level, which means it’s time for all good punters to pull out.
5 Lweinsky? Pull out?!!
Please, Wage Slave, not before 9pm.
Ever so slightly off topic.
World opinion of the Northern Rock Nationalisation summed up, courtesy of Mr Dale.
“The Northern Rock debacle has become a major headache for Brown and his Chancellor Alistair Darling, tarnishing the government’s popularity and denting the prime minister’s reputation for being a guardian of financial stability.
Reuters
“The move to temporarily nationalize the bank could be a blow to Britain’s efforts to establish London as the global capital of finance and politically costly to Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who has staked his career on his stewardship of Britain’s economic boom.
LA Times, USA
“The four month old crisis of the bank has seriously damaged the reputation of Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The temporary nationalisation of Northern Rock continues the fiasco for the British Government.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Germany
“With a national election due by May 2010 at the latest, the debacle is a lingering headache for Brown and Darling and has tarnished both the Labour government’s popularity and the prime minister’s reputation as a guardian of financial stability.
CNBC, USA
“It was the first nationalization of a bank in more than a decade and a huge blow for the administration of Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
New York Times, USA
“The government faced a barrage of criticism on Monday over its decision to nationalise the Northern Rock bank, amid questions over its reputation for economic competence.
Agence France Presse (AFP), France
Perhaps the spinners from the bunker that have infested this site today including a certain MP could explain why half the world disagrees with their take on this ‘insignificant’ and ‘temporary’ solution.
5. Pulling out when she has reached the Lewinsky level? Sounds a little Freudian.
When does quotation become plagiarism?
Cameron called Darling a ‘dead man walking’ today - I’m sure I’ve heard that phrase somewhere before.
Hmm, Obama has used bits of an old speech from two years ago.
Er…… So what?
How many MPs regularly quote Churchill? Or other Philsophers? Or other politicans? Or copy good bits of oratory from history?
Seem to remember Blair liberally sprinkling a few Churchill quotes into his Iraq War speech.
Noone cares.
Desperate, desperate Clinton.
at the risk of being on the recieving end of Mike Smithson’s wrath on early posting off thread………
Dispatches on C4 has stuck the boot into Gordon Brown, The Treasury , the FSA… etc etc etc.
Anyone in any doubt as to what’s been going on can watch it from 9pm on c4 plus I hr(not sure of sky channel no.
Going further, I dare say that someone from the Obama camp is digging through the archive to find a Hillary speech since 2000 laden with quotes that she’s recycled in 2008
I think the style/substance tag is starting to stick and this helps it with undecideds but this late into the campaign it’s not going to make too much difference. Still a tight race.
12. What about her using his change rhetoric throughout this campaign and even the “fired up, ready to go” slogan she’s used a few times?
Not sure it works as an attack ad; it re-inforces the rebuttal. If Barack is defensive about it then it could hurt but if I was attacked for just PR, just words and was an American I think the quotations “I have a dream”, “ask not”, “we hold these truths to be self evident” etc would be the ones I used.
Now if Obama starts saying “It is right and necessary for the stability of our nation that I am the one you choose to make the difficult long term choices, the tough decisions. Our first concern must be to be not Red States or Blue States, stronger together, weaker apart. Let us make this pledge Yes we Can” then for Gods sake choose Hilary.
Barack has now responded to the charges -
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23223921/
Murdoch was fully on board with Gordon Brownshirt this morning.
Labour’s stormtroopers think they’ve got away with it. Perhaps they have.
Perhaps they should go for something else?
14. What about her changing her angle from “experience” to “change” and back to “experience” again?
Sod it. I’m off to watch Kemp in Afghanistan.
Latest Rasmussen polls
Minnesota
McCain 47 Clinton 42
Obama 53 McCain 38
Florida
McCain 49 Clinton 43
McCain 53 Obama 37
Plagiarism can be a serious and deadly charge in America. We need to keep an eye on the American news outlets to see how this is going down over there, rather than judging it by UK standards or (worse) simply talking our books.
(Ironically, a lot of their campaign funding looks like straightforward bribery from here.)
12 If it is from one of her own past speeches then it is not plagiarism , from someone else’s it would be .
Re the McCain v Obama and McCain v Clinton head to head polls . Mike yesterday said that the equivalent polls in the last presidential election were accurate so we should take note of them . In fact although the final head to head polls were accurate , they varied wildly over the 6-9 months prior to the November poll and at times showed Kerry with a substantial lead , I therefore stick to my view that at this stage of the contest they are relatively unimportant .
10.
“Seem to remember Blair liberally sprinkling a few Churchill quotes into his Iraq War speech.
Was that: “When I’ve slaughtered a few more thousand fuzzywuzzies I’ll go out and get tanked?”
New Rasmussen state by state polls.
Florida. McCain 49% Clinton 43%. - McCain 53% Obama 37%.
Minnesota. McCain 47% Clinton 42%. - McCain 38% Obama 53%.
Rasmussen indicates that the Florida Democrat delegate dispute is aiding mcCain in the state. Minnesota very poor for Clinton.
This wasn’t plagarism, nor are the accusations “charges” - let’s not get hysterical here.
Patrick is a friend of Obama and Obama is already on the record admitting “stealing” Patrick quotes. This is just desperate attacking from team Hillary that shows how worried they are.
Hillary is finished in my opinion and still backable at 1.43!
I was listening to Robert Novak today who was one of the guests on the CNBC show “Political Capital” today. He was pushing the idea that Hillary can still win, does not need to win Ohio, Texas, Penn “that big” and that Michigan and Florida “should be seated”. Then the supers will vote Clinton’s way.
I find this view bizarre - some Clinton aides who actually VOTED to sanction Florida and Michigan in the first place are saying the same;
http://www.wzzm13.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=87808
Given that we’ve heard from Pelosi that Florida and Michigan should not be allowed to decide the nomination AND that super delegates should not turn over the will of the people. This seems to be wishful thinking only.
Obama is picking up more supers that HRC right now, he’s ahead in the popular vote by some 700,000 votes. The NYT poll find the supers total to be very close http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/18/superdelegate-poll-unsettled-ground/
Any reader of Rod Crosby’s spreadsheet will surely admit the maths does not stack up for HRC here. The 1.43 on Obama for the Dem nom is one of the best value bets of the year!
Full disclosure - Author now has £4k on Obama to win the Dem nom!
12.
“digging through the archive to find a Hillary speech since 2000 laden with quotes”
Perhaps Hilary’s bin’s laden? Unlike Obama’s, of course.
Oh by the way Mike -hope you got a copy of the evening standard today - nice work on the Ken polling story.
7 “Perhaps the spinners from the bunker that have infested this site today including a certain MP could explain why half the world disagrees with their take on this ‘insignificant’ and ‘temporary’ solution.”
The spinners from the bunker definitely are out tonight. They probably get put on standby when Brownshirt and Captain Darling get ready with a Sunday announcement.
Still credit to the clones where credit is due. The media has forgotten Captain Darling introduced Sharia bonds to sell off Britain.
Mark @ 21.
That may be so in relation to the November poll, but such polls will give some Democrat voters and Super Delegates pause for reflection in upcoming state primaries and caucus.
Joe Biden for the 21st century..now that would hurt……..
I’ve said this before about people posting “off topic” and all that but I think it’s worth repeating. I don’t understand why the Northern Rock discussion (that’s the example in this case) can’t continue on the previous thread. Why, when Mike posts a new thread, do people stop using the old one? It doesn’t make any sense to me.
27.
“Captain Darling introduced Sharia bonds to sell off Britain. ”
So Labour sells Britain off to the Arabs (and Russians and Indians?), Tories just give it all away (with 10 per cent for themselves, natch).
New CNN/ORC poll for Texas -
Clinton 50% Obama 48%.
McCain 55% Huckabee 32%.
re 30 Good point Eddie.
re 32. If that’s how the vote ends then Obama will have big margin on delegates
See this from the Washington Post
http://tinyurl.com/28r976
Are we having the start of mis-information by Republicans. Saw this comment on http://www.marketwatch.com a little while ago. Are we in for a nasty campaign?
‘by JayCal 17 minutes ago
Obama is CORRUPT, his slogan of change an ILLUSION.
1) A houseowner wants to sell both a house and adjoining land. Obama can afford to buy only the house. No problem, the criminal Rezko to the rescue. Rezko pays full price for the land, whereas Obama gets a discount of $300,000 on the house. Nice to have criminal friends like this!!! (reference ABC News)
2) Exelon Corporation had not disclosed radioactive leaks at one of its nuclear plants in Illinois. Obama, a senator for Illinois introduces a bill to make disclosures mandatory. Seems like Exelon doesn’t like it. Each draft of the new bill by Obama goes more and more towards Exelon till disclousures end up being “voluntary”. What gives? How about $250,000+ donations by Exelon to Obama’s campaingns!!! Obama is not change, he is WASHINGTON BUSINESS AS USUAL. (reference New York Times)’
People need to stop believing their fantasies about Obama and elect the only politician with character.
McCain 2008!!!’
Link to new Texas poll -
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/18/poll.texas/index.html
35, yes they are going to go for his throat….given the Democrat will probably knock on about McCains age which is not exactly political argument alls fair.
24. It’s very amusing that Republicans like Bob Novak, who presumed the establishment Clinton was inevitable and have spent the whole time knocking her, now realise Obama is likely to win and is more likely to beat them. They’re desperately trying to keep Clinton alive now.
30 - the design of the site doesn’t suit it. If you want different threads for different topics then you’d have to change it. It was just about do-able when the site was smaller, and there was a clickable “latest comment” feature down the sidebar, but now keeping track of multiple threads is just too difficult. And people will still go off-topic at every opportunity anyway.
34 - Just read that article Mike and I’m pretty shocked by it. Not the stuff about delegates - although it is absurd for one persons vote to count for so much more than anothers - but the fact that the Texas Democratic Party does not know if it has enough people to run the caucuses.
If there is nobody to run them the first person to the packet of materials at that site is in charge of the process. How ridiculuous! What is it with Americans and elections?
New SUSA matchup poll for Wisconsin. More bad news for Hillary.
McCain +7% over Clinton.
Obama +10% over McCain.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/02/18/on-eve-of-wisconsin-primary-a-look-ahead-to-november/
For those who wish to judge how stickable the Rezko-Obama issue is, here’s an interview with the Sun-Times:
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/124171,CST-NWS-obama05.article
if texas finishes as a virtual draw between the two, is an ohio win enough to get clinton back on course?
43, I’d say no - it’d be enough to take it to Pennsylvania but she’d need a big win there.
44. It’s important to realise than Pennsylvania is almost seven weeks after March 4 and Obama will win the three primaries in that period.
30 - I enjoy the way the site works actually. Mike kinda posts his thoughts for discussion, and then people are able to put all their musings down in one long thread; you can choose to stick with the discussion or go off topic, it’s all about debate and discourse. I enjoy following several threads of conversation at once, actually.
Maybe Obama should call for a re-count in a state he’s already won?
Clinton’s win in New Mexico seemed like she’d won a new contest, for anyone with a short attention span.
I think Obama will win the nomination, but the Clinton camp are very skilfully managing expectations, so the only contests that appear to matter are the ones Hillary wins.
43 - I don’t think so. She really needs to sweep the March 4th states to get the narrative back. Minimum she needs is an average 10 point win in TX and OH. If she did that, back of the envelope calculation she would be up around 300,000 in terms of the popular vote.
At the moment she is about 700,000 behind in total, but including Flordia drops that to 400,000. Given the pledged delegate count and the Texas rules I expect the Clinton campaign to pivot to an argument that the popular vote should be what matters and is morally the best gauge of the candidates - this to my mind is the only way that CLinton convinced the majority of superdelegates to support her.
This is all academic though if Texas is as close as this poll suggests. And over the next two weeks there is every chance that Obama will overtake her.
But keep an eye on the popular vote as well as the pledged delegate count.
The OT comments allow punters to get new information in one place, you can drop in and read the comments and be sure any major story has been posted. It’s a fantastic resource that hundreds of contributors keep working and updated.
If Brown resigned i’d want someone to go off topic immediately.
48. Be careful with Texas. I expect Hispanics to turnout in bigger numbers, invalidating the turnout models used for polls.
On topic; no. It looks quite desperate. Also, it’s going negative again, and playing the man not the ball.
51. Agreed, and some of you may know that I’ve been a Clinton supporter on here for quite a bit.
But now I’m starting to have my doubts. Both the Clintons have disappointed me in this campaign, fighting their previous battles. I thought they would have the political nous to forget about that.
It annoys me because I know that Hillary is a good candidate and would have been a good President. But she has grasped defeat from the jaws of victory it seems.
51 This is just the start, and pretty mild. I have believed from the beginning that she will go as negative as she feels she needs to to win this. In fact, I fully expect there to be a “October Surprise” the weekend before the Texas primary. Now shooting Bambi may well backfire but they’ll do it anyway.
52. Her ability to win people to her side in this campaign is suggestive of how well she will be able to win support for her legislation once in office. It is getting that legislation through the Senate’s filibuster system that will be the mark of domestic success or failure for the next President.
Two predictions.
1. Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination
and
2. The Northern Rock nationalisation may well play out as a very good Labour move. I was very doubtful yesterday, but the more I’ve studied it today the more sensible it seems. What I think gets right up the nose is the sight of Cameron and Osbourne appearing to gloat about what are people’s savings.
46 I agree, Matt, and sometimes it can be hilarious when you get intertwined threads on, say, the Wisconsin Primary, voting patterns in Scotland, the role of he private sector in the NHS and the origins of Showaddywaddy.
Takes a sophisticated mind to handle that kind of load.
48 On popular vote - what if Clinton wins the Washington state primary having lost the caucuses? There are no delegates tied to the primary but it could be a useful attack tool for Clinton.
55 Is Richard the new Roger?
55. I’d expect both to be quoted back to you. With gloating from SeanT.
Off topic: Results starting to come in for the Pakistan elections: http://www.ecp.gov.pk/
58. Dunno, but I’ve been making money on political bets lately so don’t be too dismissive!
Re. my second point it’s very interesting to see how the Murdoch stable are responding.
57. Its unlikely regardless. Pacific liberalism is much more akin to Obama’s views than Clinton’s.
O/T - 297/299 on previous thread, fully agreed, great expose by Jon Moulton, absolutely spot on that we’ve only just seen the start of the current mess.
If I was an investigative journalist, I would scour the country for the first household to be foreclosed on a Northern Rock mortgage, what a field day that will be - repossessed by my own government! - I can’t wait for that on the front page of the Sun, what a monument that will be to our dear leader!
57 - Good question! Yet another way for the Clinton’s to claim the moral high ground. I realise that Americans kind of like the anomalies in their systems, decentralisation and all that. But this Democratic race could turn into a farce if it stays close which would be a tragedy for the Democrats, America and the world.
“Homes” are repossessed by the public sector all the time.
The plagiarism seems mildly to reinforce the ‘lack of substance’ charge, but it’s hardly a killer argument.
30: The snag about posting on previous threads is that…most people don’t post on, or read, previous threads. A bit circular but sadly true.
I’ve not commented on the NR debate since I’m trying not to get into the weekly “It was great”/”No it was rubbish” exchanges, but the general view on the Government side is that it went surprisingly well, and the Tories didn’t look too chuffed, though the LDs were understandably proud of Cable.
61 LOL! Sorry Richard. Just teasing. As you would know if you’ve been following these elections, my record isn’t exactly 100%.
OT: I’m slightly glad that the government have decided to support Kosovan independence. Whole situation could blow up, but at least they’re doing the right thing ethically.
One for Socrates only:
http://chronicle.com/temp/reprint.php?id=3wkbtnnvrbgh425ftgz9z9hxtwg6j9bn
68 - ethically or ethnically?
64 Kieran - The reason this whole Florida/Michigan thing is an issue is because of how the DNC dealt with it. If they had a penalty of losing half the delegates like the Republicans did, it would not have the potency. Do you really have any confidence that the people (Howard Dean etc) who created this fiasco will select a solution that does not make things even worse? The Puerto Rico primary could potentially be a debacle as well.
James Carville summed it up nicely last week at the homebuilders conference in Orlando -
For both you Democrats out there, I got good news for you. We have to literally talk our way out of winning this election.
For the Republicans, being a lifelong member of the Democratic party, I can assure you we are perfectly capable of doing that.”
66 Agree with you on NR in terms of short term news management; Darling escaped being a blood sacrifice and generally Conservative attack was a bit of a damp squib.
Will be interesting to see the polls in next few weeks though as regards economic competency. Also Northern Rock will reappear regularly as offices are closed, staff laid off, re-organisation takes shape. Personally doubt a buyer will be found in a year so it will be around for some time.
I take the view though that the damage was to UK’s reputation and attractiveness as a financial centre and that will take longer to work through the system.
Bill Clinton to speak tomorrow. Exclusive preview:
“Last week, I complained that Obama’s campaign wanted no part in the good things we did in the past. I was wrong. He has plagiarised Jesse Jackson by winning the South Carolina Primary. He has plagiarised Deval Patrick in a speech, he has plagiarised Adlai Stevenson by being from Illinois, and now, most outrageously of all, he’s going to plagiarise me by winning the Democratic nomination”
Gallup Tracking Poll - Obama 49% Clinton 42%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104407/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
The excellent despatches programme was followed on sky by the equally excellent Ross Kemp in Afghanistan. The points he raised at the end included the need for more helicopters *highlighting the need to evacuate the injured quickly* among other shortcomings, shows that the MOD still continues to fail in its duty to our soldiers.
63 “I can’t wait for that on the front page of the Sun, what a monument that will be to our dear leader!”
The Sun does what Murdoch tells them. Murdoch always sits with rulers.
The impact of Northern Rock will be long term financial.
75 “the MOD still continues to fail in its duty to our soldiers.”
The MOD must do more on less money. When Labour said “a smaller more lethal millitary”, who did you think it was going to be lethal for?
Swiss Tony and Gordon Brown couldnt care less.
Didnt Gordon Brown say the millitary are 2nd in line to be brought down a peg after the monarchy?
Just seen Yvette Cooper on Newsnight, personally I find her almost as nauseating as Patricia Hewitt! Also thought Philip Hammond’s non-nationalisation comments were weak and pathetic, Paxman rang rings round them both so easily, knife slicing through butter treatment.
Apparently £100m of taxpayers money used in advice from Goldman Sachs etc over the past 6 months - another fine waste of money there then!
Nick Palmer (66), I found your comment very interesting…. “the general view on the Government side is that it went surprisingly well, and the Tories didn’t look too chuffed, though the LDs were understandably proud of Cable.”
Reading through today’s posts, I get the impression that Labour-inclined supporters are now looking more kindly on the Liberal Democrats. They weren’t before, when Vince Cable was recommending nationalisation of Northern Rock, and they wanted to agree but felt held back by their loyalty to the Government.
But now that Brown and Darling have finally made up their minds to go for the Lib Dem solution of nationalisation to protect taxpayers’ money, Labour supporters can now express their true feelings more openly. The Government should have gone for that solution long ago of course.
And once again, the common enemy is the Cameron Conservative Party, which cannot make up its mind, supports Labour when the Government is at its most confused, and advances half a dozen different proposals virtually at the same time.
Tories here have been talking and gloating for some time about the disappearance of the anti-Tory tactical vote. I wonder if this is about to make its presence felt once again.
I’ve just seen BBC News at Ten’s edit of Brown and Darling’s press conference from earlier today on Northern Rock. The palpable fear and negative body language they each exuded was stark and alarming for their and the government’s future prospects.
I think Nationalisation was the least worst option available to them. The problem is Brown’s immense inability to present and oversee difficult information and decisions. There has been dithering but ultimately the right decision was made. Brown clearly wanted any other outcome and is incapable of hiding his discomfiture. This is his ultimate weakness. His character is wholly unsuited to be Prime Minister.
Oh. And I wouldn’t mention the N word.
78. For some strange reason I don’t actually mind Yvette Cooper, though her husband is another matter entirely…
Not good news for HRC
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/18/poll.texas/index.html
The story of “Jack’s Eye” which I broke on my website on Wednesday has now appeared in the Daily Telegraph and on the BBCnews website.
(www.vote4barry.blogspot). So you know where to go if you want to be ahead of the rest.
OT for those interested in Labour selections.
In Hull East the nomination process ended this week with all ward branches. Chris Leslie’s bid seems dead into water (even if he started with getting big unions’ support). He failed to get any ward nomination and according to LabourHome it is believed to have withdrawn from the contest.
The “open” nomination situation is 4 wards nominating Karl Turner and 2 nominating Gary Wareing and David Prescott.
On female side, Della Georgeson won the female nomination almost everywhere whilst the BME noninations have been split between George McNamara and Khevyn Limbajee.
82 Clinton 50
Obama 48
She needs to win Texas well. It isn’t looking likely.
85. But good for Obamaniacs Peter.
Obama said Patrick and he were friends and that Patrick has used some of his material as well. This besides the fact that Clinton has been poaching Obama’s material in the last couple of months.
Clinton is also attacking Obama on allegedly flip-flopping on a commitment to McCain on public funding except Clinton herself can’t bring herself to make the same commitment. In any case Obama said he would be happy to discuss it with McCain once he is the nominee and therefore in a position to negotiate. After all the devil is in the detail and no one knows whether McCain will fiddle the system.
When did Clinton become so bad at campaigning? She should be steam rolling Obama but is inexplicably off her game.
79. Lefties of the world unite in incompetence and crapulence…this sort of nonsense is gold dust for Cameron in Southern marginals…I didnt think it would take long but the Labdemers cant help themselves..so focussed on the cursed Tories they are happy to be Labour’s poodles. Long may it continue…LabDemers will suffer a serious squeeze if they try to side with Labour…
Am i the only person who thinks that newspapers should not have carte blanche to repeat allegations made under privilege?
86 StJohn
It doesn’t seem likely to me that Wisconsin will be decisive. It will probably be close, but whichever way it goes, either side can spin it and the number of delegates isn’t huge. Texas and Ohio should be decisive and HRC needs to win both by a substantial margin.
I can just about imagine it in Ohio, but not Texas. Only one of the last four polls has given her a 10 point lead, and she needs at least that.
In my betting, I grow increasingly Obamanical.
90 - If you’re talking about Al Fayed I’d be surprised if anyone, apart from a few nutters, believed the old coot anyway.
89 - LibDems are certainly giving the Govt massive political cover. If the only criticism of the Govt is one of “dithering”, it is a charge that can be easily answered on a superficial level with the line that “all options had to be explored and exhausted”.
91 (Sorry…the adverb should be Obamanic. I do hope Augustus Carp wasn’t watching.)
92 - of course nobody believes him and he’s just making himself look like a complete nutcase. But the widespread reporting of his claims made under privilege merely highlights a general principle that Newspapers can write anything, just as long as they get someone to say it in court (or parliament) first. IMO it brings the whole basis for having libel laws into dispute.
92 Of course few have ever taken him seriously, but why are British taxpayers required to pay for an expensive inquiry into the cause of Princess Diana’s death when it is utterly and blindingly obvious?
In fact i don’t really see the basis for legal privilege in this day and age fullstop. Why should people be allowed to make baseless allegations and broadcast them to a worldwide audience? Even Perry Mason usually requires some evidence.
91. Peter. It’s certainly looking that way and the maths firmly points us in that direction. My only residual doubt is the US electorate’s tendency to line up behind the underdog as this election oscillates one way and then the other.
Hillary is definitely in the last chance saloon and needs some impressive results soon. Will the voters roll the dice once more her way? I hope not and doubt it but you can never say never with the Clintons.
98 You’re right, StJohn, and I’m not ready to call it just yet. I do however think with the benefit of hindsite, Maine was the tipping point. She should have been able to hold that, or at least go close. Since Maine, it’s been difficult to see her clawing her way back - not impossible, yet, but very difficult.
89/93 LibDems having proposed nationalisation as the only sensible solution for some time , you would be ridiculing them if they suddenly opposed it now . The Conservative alternative policy is so riddled with holes it looks like it was cobbled together by Osborne after a night out on the p**s .
Michelle Obama made a gaffe today saying, “For the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country”.
I agree with most other people that the plagiarism case is weak.
The only worry for Obama is that he starts to be knocked off message, forced to play defence.
Go back to bed Mark, no one heeds or needs your poisonus drivel here.
120 A Tarquin! A Tarquin!
And a Typo! Tarquin at 102!
100
So is Nationalisation a new Lib Dem policy,why didn’t they propose it for Rover?
102 - are you al fayed in disguise?
WASHINGTON STATE PRIMARY Tuesday, February 19
BALLOT RETURNS
As of the day before the primary, approximately 40% of Washington State’s 3.3 million active registered voters have already returned their ballots via the mail.
Note that 37 of 39 WA counties are all vote-by-mail; the exceptions are the two biggest counties: King (Seattle & suburbs) and Pierce (Tacoma & burbs). But even in King & Pierce most voters cast absentee ballots.
WA Secretary of State is projecting statewide turnout of 48% by final certification, but could easily end up at 50% or even a bit higher.
VALID BALLOTS
However, a significant portion of the returned ballots are invalid in either the Democratic or Republican primary, because the voter has failed (or refused) to sign the required party oath.
This “non party” rate varies but is perhaps 15%-20% statewide, and even higher in King County.
It’s also interesting that, of ballots with the required oath, significantly more are being cast in the Democratic primary, which is not being used to allocate delegates, than in the Republican primary, which the GOP is using to allocate half of WA’s pledged delegates.
Only a few WA counties have released any information regarding the current partisan split in returned ballots (based on which oath was signed). In King Co last week, the Democratic returns were outpacing Republican returns by 2/1. Even in Spokane County, the largest county in conservative eastern Washington, Democratic ballot returns were exceeding GOP returns by several thousands.
LIKELY RESULTS?
Republicans - conventional wisdom is that McCain will win, this is likely correct. While the GOP is hardly engergized, turnout should be high enough to swamp Huckabee’s pro-lifers, home schoolers, and disgruntled hard-core McCain haters. But Huckabee will still get a sizeable vote, as will Ron Paul. And the realative dearth of GOP votes coming out of King County is bad news for McCain, but perhaps good news for Ron Paul, who will get a lot of valid votes out of places like Seattle and Redmond, home to Microsoft.
Democrats - conventional wisdom is that Clinton will do better than the 2/1 shellacking she got in the caucuses, but that Obama will still win the primary vote. The large number of voters refusing to sign the party oath clearly hurts Obama with his high level of support from independents. And Hillary’s support among older women should help her, given that they have among the best voter participation.
However, total WA State Democrats caucus attendence of a quarter million set not only a state record, but a US record. And Obama has been winning more states and moving up in more polls since the Feb 9 WA caucuses.
100 - I made no comment on the validity of the respective party positions. Merely commented on the effects as they stand, politically. The Lib Dems have had a long term strategy of trying to look consistent and far-sighted. The Conservatives have gambled that the best way to profit from the Govt’s embarrassment is to disassociate themselves completely from the Govt’s actions, without worrying too much about the detail.
Only time will tell which, if either, has made the right call.
103 - Can you see into the future?
99 - with due respect, think the last tipping point (and likely the big one) was Obama’s smashing victory in the WA precinct caucuses.
Was part of a hat trick for Obama that day (Sat, Feb 9) with Nebraska caucuses & Louisiana primary. But while these victories were sweet, but NB echoed Iowa & Kansas, and LA echoed South Carolina & Georgia.
But WA was different. And not just because I was (and still am) there.
110 I’m sorry, Sea Shanty, but WA? Western Australia, Walesia, Wales…?
111. Welsh Antarctica
110 - SSI - What is your view on the importance of the popular vote figures? As I said upthread I think the Clinton camp could pivot to this later in the campaign, saying it has a higher moral worth than pledged delegates. If she could get back her lead on this score she may be able to persuade superdelegates to support her in the defence of the majority of voters.
I don’t think this is a very likely scenario - she is quite a way back in terms of the popular vote. However with decent sized wins in Ohio and Texas she would certainly be in the hunt (and including Florida helps her as well). I realise this is all very hypothetical, but it seems to em one way HRC could get superdelegate support even if she wins less pledged delegates.
110 - National press are not going to revisit WA State, unless the whole race is so tight that everything is in the hopper.
And unless she actually wins the Washington preference primary, the fact that she lost by a smaller margin is just going to be too theoretical. At most might help her hang on to a superdelegate or two within the state delegation.
112 Of course.
My ignorance knows no bounds, as you would recollect from the time I scoured the betting sites for odds on the elections in North Virginia.
Job losses and £100m fees: Day One at National Rock- Timesonline.
“The costs of the five-month delay in resolving Northern Rock’s future began to emerge yesterday. Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, and Slaughter & May, the legal firm, stand to share between £15 million and £20 million for advising the Treasury on the sale.
Northern Rock – and therefore the taxpayer – is also set to pay its bankers at Blackstone, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, and its lawyers Allen & Overy and Freshfield Bruckhaus Deringer, about £75 million in fees, including a £25 million success fee.
Sir Richard Branson’s consortium and a management team that also bid for the bank will each receive £5 million from the Treasury to cover part of their costs. There was also the prospect of further legal bills for the public purse.”
WISCONSIN PRIMARY
Dispatches from Cheeseheadland:
http://blogs.jsonline.com/allpoliticswatch/
check out the post on the Milwaukee City Couuncil races.
Will Hillary win in WI tomorrow - here is hoping - hope our neighbor state has some sense and votes for her or it is close - just hope there weather picks up they are been having some real bad snowy weather and Madam was diverted from WI the other day
79: I’ve nearly always been fairly friendly to the LDs - my seat depends on their goodwill, and anyway I see us as philosophically similar people who for historical reasons have ended up in different tribes. I was feeding Norman Lamb (a former Treasury Committee colleague and a nice bloke) the Tory claims from vote-2005 throughout the last campaign.
90: agreed, alex. I’d even argue that in criminal cases we shouldn’t see the names of the accused until conviction - it’s important to have freedom to report the issues that are raised in court, but shouldn’t be important to know that the accused is called Fred Smith - either we’ve never heard of him, or we have and mud will even if he’s acquitted.
116 Sounds absolutely horrendous - a 2010 GE now looks absolutely certain. Massive wasted fees, massive job cuts, massive potential losses - have we ever before seen Government incompetence on anything like this scale?
Mike - have you started rethinking your strategy yet as regards a buy of Tory seats?
Did they really just say on News 24 that, according to the Tories, “Darling has lost his reputation for competence”?
116.PfP, check out these article in the Independent and the Telegraph, both are well worth reading.
Interesting ABC piece on plagiarismgate. The headline made it sound quite bad for Obama, and anyone who didn’t watch the actual report would be left with the impression that he’d stolen most of a whole speech. If they’d stuck around, though, they’d've seen Clinton herself ripping off a very distinctive paragraph from John Edwards pretty much verbatim.
For her to draw attention to a sin that she herself has committed, and far more brazenly, takes some nerve. Perhaps this apparently lame attack is actually a sophisticated way of demonstrating that she has the cajones to be prez?
If that’s the best Hillary can come up with then she’s in even deeper shi* than I thought.
Barack would have us believe he is some miracle orator when many of his speeches, although well delivered, are rehashes of Martin Luther King and now the most recent one was copied from Duvall Patrick of Massachusetts. Being President requires independent thinking–it is not OK to cheat on THIS test! What would happen to any of you if you delivered a speech that someone else had made a year or two ago and didn’t cite it? In college, you get thrown out, as plagarism is academic DISHONESTY. It was a dishonest thing to do. Many are sooo brainwashed toward him you obviously can’t stand up and say, “Yes, it wasn”t right” Instead you attack Hillary Clinton. We in New England recognized the speech which is why we aren’t crazy about him, among other reasons. He lost in Mass and New Hampshire. He DID steal the concept, the wording, and this is the tip of the proverbial iceberg.