The Wisconsin Primary thread
February 19th, 2008The polls close at 2am GMT when we should get the results of the exit polls.
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I have a queasy feeling about Wisconsin and the chance that SHE could make a comeback. Having spent quite a bit of time in Racine I can see how her more trad message will resonate.
I think Obama will win but that 1.07 on Betfair looks a bit fuelled by emotion. 1.2 would probably reflect the mixed facts as reported so far.
Incidentally, your MPs are all still hard at work for you - Parliament expected to sit till 2am today.
Fox exit poll;
http://thepage.time.com/fox-preliminary-exits-for-wisconsin-democrats/
Politico(via email) http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Wisconsin_exits.html
Re. 3 if this data is right I’m feeling less queasy!!
>>Fox Preliminary Wisconsin Exit Poll ResultsAmong Democrats
Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Independents: Obama 63%, Clinton 34%
Seniors: Clinton 60%, Obama 39%
Top quality — experience: Clinton 95%, Obama 5%
Union households: Clinton 50%, Obama 49%
Exit polls saying Obama has won the female vote. Goodnight Vienna for Hillary….
Fox Preliminary Exits for Wisconsin Democrats
Among Democrats
Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Independents: Obama 63%, Clinton 34%
Seniors: Clinton 60%, Obama 39%
I think she might do it - splits are all really 50/50 in the Fox poll except for independents and seniors and senior turnout is reported good.
2 But where are most of the MPs sitting - on stools at places with division bells by any chance?
5 Damn, you have to be fast round here….
Publishing those sorts of numbers hours before the close of polls couldn’t be an attempt to manipulate turnout, could it?
On CNN now. All the experts from “the best political team on television” are agreed that the superdelegates will line up behind the state delegates in the Democratic nomination race
Assuming stjohn’s post above from the previous thread is to be believed, then Hillary’s task becomes more difficult since she is unlikely to win any majority of super delegates and at best a majority of around 40. This compares with Rod Crosby’s projected majority in her favour of 86 super delegates.
7 I still think the independents and men will significantly outweigh the seniors component.
7) Splits women but Men is;
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 35%
Obama 61%
!!
12/13 Independents and Seniors must all be either men or women so you only need 2 figures to see who is winning if they are accurate .
14 Blatantly genderist comment Mark!
[from previous thread]
As a matter of interest, the chance of a poll hitting the true value of a party’s percentage spot on (to the nearest 1%) is only about 26%, and the chance of scoring a bullseye with the lead is only about 15%…
Kind of makes this endless spinning of polls a bit silly, No?
22. Yes, at 50/50 support the MOE on the lead is exactly twice the MOE for one party’s share.
In general, the MOE on the lead is
1.96 * SQRT((p*(100-p)+q*(100-q)+2*p*q)/N)
where p is Party A share, q is party B share and N is sample size…
11. Peter. Which are you questioning, their judgment or my mental and auditory faculties?
Let’s just be a bit cautious. Early exits don’t have a great track record. FWIW here is another set:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/wisconsin_exit_polls_a_less_af.php
I think Ted is right on the previous thread. IF the demographic data turns out to be right and IF Obama still wins by 15-20 points then she really is teetering on the edge because Obama would be doing much better with her demographics. Just remember these exits are probably based on data collected with about 4 hours of voting still to go. Even if they are accurate the final results may be different.
14 “Independents and Seniors must all be either men or women…”
That is just SO hermaphroditist of you….
Re 9 - Marquee Mark - first on thread and I get the first exit poll copy&paste - I think I should now leave - quietly contented!!
McCain Struggles to Block Huckabee Surprise in Wisconsin…
http://www.hispanicbusiness.com//news/newsbyid.asp?NS=1&id=90771&cat=Election+News&more=%2Fnews%2Fmore_election_news.asp
Is there anywhere on t’interweb I can get live streaming of tv coverage of the results coming in and big-wigs opining on exits etc (other than here, of course!) Any guidance appreciated.
O/T - in case anyone’s interested, England are going well for a change in the ODI. 190-2 after 33 overs.
Could make some entertaining viewing while waiting for the Wisconsin results.
22. This is usually good, but no results yet..
http://www.politico.com/
Majority of 203 for the Banking Bill after 9 hours of debate…
It seems to me that this is the moment. If he really wins big here, its very hard to see how she can come back. If she surprises everyone and these exit numbers and comes close, then with the 3 big states to come, she could yet come back. I’m off to bed, but have a nagging doubt that she will do better than expected.
17 stjohn - certainly not the latter, sorry if my post appeared thus.
27. Peter. Just pulling your leg!
Looks like Clinton may have already screwed-up in Philly…
http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/15759032.html
29 - “But Clinton’s faux pas is more of an image problem than a practical one.
Under Democratic Party rules (and does any organization on the planet have more rules or more complex rules?) a presidential candidate winning in a congressional district gets delegates from that district (assigned at a later date) whether he or she files slates delegates or not.”
That is the key part. A not very good process story will circulate for a bit but there won’t be any material effect on the race.
It’s surprisingly quiet on here tonight - clearly few are expecting any major shocks. Although I had originally anticipated a pernoctation, I think I’m going to have to follow Ted to bed, if you’ll pardon the expression.
30 But it adds to the “hubris” notion - that the Clinton team did not plan beyond Super Tuesday because Hillary was to be duly annointed on that day. The later states didn’t count.
But them pesky varmint-voters didn’t play along.
31 Turn out the light Peter I’m trying to sleep…
33 …and you can stop snoring.
anyone want any delicious Wisconsin cheese
-
shall I be brave and predict Hillary takes Wisconsin - or should I not hmm.
32 - I don’t doubt that that is the case. My point is that it is irrelevent to the race - any voter who cares will already have decided who to support.
Huge numbers on CBS on Clinton-Obama from Wisconsin exit poll.
Best Commander in chief
Clinton 50%
Obama 48%
Best uniter
Obama 63%
Clinton 37%
Most likely to win in November
Obama 63%
Clinton 37%
Commentators say “same as in Virginia”
Obama won VA with about 65% of the vote……
There’s at least one avid observer on here, but keeping tabs on the cricket too so relying on you guys for updates on wisconsin! keep up the good work!
Wisconsin - Hillary last matched at 20/1 on Betfair.
36 According to the unofficial (as yet) Wisconsin exit poll, a whacking 27% decided their vote in the thepast week
here’s a question for those of you more in the know than I - how big would Obama have to win to suggest the race really is over? Clearly, HRC isn’t going to pull out anytime soon but what numbers would put the writing on the wall?
40 - That is actually down on previous primaries.
I appreciate that Hawaii is a foregone conclusion, but has anyone heard any news?
Isn’t it only just breakfast time in Hawaii? My geography’s sketchy.
41 - Anything in double-digits is bad. Anything over 20 points is crushing.
However there is no way that she will drop out before TX and OH and 2 weeks is enought time to turn things around, but only if everything goes her way. If things carry on as they seem to be Clinton’s chances of the nomination would be down to about 20%.
44 - It is after breakfast but they don’t caucus until about 5am our time. No news yet that I have seen (it is not a primary so not even some turnout stuff).
44 I can’t imagine Hillary would pull out irrespective of the Wisconsin result. Now were she looking certain to lose Texas, well that would be a different matter - we would then be approaching humiliation territory.
41. Any gap larger than 20% means that the masses have firmly settled on Obama as their man, and I would get my money on Obama to be candidate as soon as possible if that happens. That’s a very unlikely result, by the way. A gap larger than 15% indicates Hillary has a better than evens chance of losing one of Ohio and Texas, which will end her race. Less than 5% means she’ll successfully spin it in her favour and the nature of the race doesn’t change.
41. If the numbers stack-up (there’s talk of Obama winning 75% in HI) he will be about 160 ahead in the pledged delegates after tonight, and about 83 ahead including the current superdelegate count…
Basically, Clinton can’t win without the superdelegates (assuming no further leakage to Obama) AND FL/MI being seated, and probably not even then, assuming Obama’s momentum doesn’t falter…
It’s over (it was over after Maine, really)
The Commander-in-Chief figures are interesting. I’d guess its a pretty good proxy for voting intention, with a bias towards Clinton. Looking at the Missouri exit 86% of those who thought Clinton would be the best C-in-C voted for her, while the figure was 98% for Obama. Thus Clinton won best C-in-C by 5 points and lost the state by 1. Thus I would have expected Obama to have a bigger C-in-C lead if he was on course for a blowout. But this is all complete guesswork anyway …
45 - thanks. I never imagined her pulling out before TX & OH, but I guess a 20 point loss here allied to a certain big win in Hawaii could give a pretty formidable delegate lead, given the PR system used by the dems.
On a related issue, does anyone know what odds i cold’ve got on an Obama 10 state sweep of the contests between super tuesday and and TX/OH? I thought about looking for it at the time but decided against it after being badly scarred by my previous political betting attempt - buying LD seats at the last UK GE! Was just wondering what I could’ve won!
Thanks Rod, topynate - helpful comments
49 “It was over after Maine, really.”
Kind of my sentiments, Rod, but she’s a tough lady and a strong candidate, so I can’t count her out just yet.
49 - Rod what is your view on popular vote and have you done a spreadsheet for it? If Clinton won the popular vote (she could only probably do it only by including Florida) but lost the pledged delegates is it not feasible that she could persuade supers to support her on that basis?
TX and OH are her alamos. She has two weeks to hammer away at Obama, two debates and hope he missteps. An indication of her campaign strategy going forward:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/clinton_plans_major_contrast_s.php
When do the polls close in Wisconsin?
47 - Even if she lost TX and OH it would hardly be humiliating. She would have lost one of the closest nomination battles in modern times, winning over a thousand pledged delegates, 10 million votes and plenty of big states.
55 - 2am
55 In about fifty minutes time.
Anyone know where/when these two Hillary/Obama debates are to be held?
51 Matt - this type of accumulator bet never existed to my knowledge. Think I’ll stay on here a little longer - if it’s a truly massive win for Obama in Wisconsin, there may be some value to be picked up on him elsewhere.
57/58 - oh well - off to my bed - I’ll lump a bit on Obama and retire then…
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/02/wisconsin_election_thread.html
According to this Fox are saying Obama won late deciders 53-47. How does that fit with the big Obama win given that you would think Clinton leads with voters who decided over a month ago? Although, these are difficult to rely on even for early exits given that they rely on people remembering when they decided who to vote for.
35 - Give us some good Wisconsin jokes, as insulting Cheeseheads is a great Minnesota pasttime, surpassed only by fishing, snowmobiling and angst.
54. No, I haven’t done popular vote yet. I’m also having FTP upload problems at the moment - hence no spreadsheet update.
From what I’ve seen of others’ pop vote calculations, Obama now holds a commanding lead (ex FL/MI) and a modest lead (inc. FL/MI) I don’t think that is going to change, since I think Clinton is going to win few if any of the remaining contests. My guess, first voiced after Maine, is she’ll win 0 more contests….
49, 53 - Not Maine, Washington State!
Those Mainers are just copycats . . .
Don’t forget with the exit polling that Obama seems to poll higher than what the actual results are when the votes are counted. If the figures are this close, I think that there is every possibility that Clinton may actually sneak this
BTW, do you have reruns of “That ’70s Show” in dear old Blighty??? Helpful for percolating Wisconsin or whatever you guys were trying to do to it earlier today . . .
62 Sounds like wall to wall fun and laughter in Minnesota. Perhaps you’d like to start the ball rolling SSI? Speaking personally, I’m fresh out of Wisconsin jokes this evening.
65 toontoon - if you really believe she’ll win, rush to get your money on with Betfair at 29-1.
SSI - you seem to have been a reliable voice throughout primary season - any predictions for tonight based on the exits published so far?
63 - Obama is winning the PV 9.5m-8.8m (52%-48%). If you include Florida it is 10.1m-9.7 (51%-49%). My back of the envelope calculation was that she could probably gain around 300,000 if she wins TX and OH by about 10 points. Also there is the question of Washington - do you use the primary figures given that more people will vote? Fair enough if you don’t think she will do that, it is looking more and more doubtful by the day.
Bottom line for me is that she has to win well in TX and OH. That gives her a reason to carry on. Even if she is unable to catch Obama in pledged delegates there may be other ways for her to claim legitimacy. If she doesn’t win any more conests then this is all academic of course.
G’morning peebles. There I was scrolling happily through the posts - and then I get to number 65. Hm. Worrisome.
Intrade is moderately confident Hillz has lost - she’s down a point of two. But she’s not collapsing.
I think we will see an Obama win in Cheeseland but not by double digit. 5-10%.
71 Worrisome? She’s 29-1 with Betfair, hardly worrisome.
Wisconsin is another of the states I’ve been to. Appleton North High School if I recall correctly (I was there on a tour). Nice people and a lovely theatre.
66: Don’t know if it made it to the UK, but I was addicted when in California 2000/2001. Awful show, couldn’t help myself
Wisconsin Road Tour
Milwaukee Co = the town that made beer famous, plus some burbs; Democratic strongehold & largest Black concentration in WI
Racine Co = city of same name, industrial blue collar, leans Democratic
Kenosha Co = same as above
Waukesha Co = upscale Milwaukee suburbs, leans GOP but lots of Independents
Dane Co = Madison, state capital & University of Wisconsin, liberal progressive bastion
Rock Co = Janesville, southern WI near IL line
Sheboyan Co = city of same name
Winnebago Co = Oshkosh (by Gosh!) central WI
Brown Co = Green Bay, home of the legendary Packers (smallest city/media market in US with a major sports franchise) NE WI
Marathon Co = Wausau, northcentral WI
Douglas Co = Superior, suburb of Duluth, Minnesota, on shores of Lake Superior, NW WI
Eau Claire Co = city of same name, westcentral WI
La Crosse Co = city of same name, on Mississippi River across from MN
Don’t forget that the Fonz himself is a Cheesehead, ‘Happy Days’ was set in Milwaukee.
65 - Not true, the exits I posted last week were poorer for Obama than tha actual result (Virginia etc.)
72. PfP. Where’s this 29/1? She’s only 13/1 on my screen.
72. You know how nervy I get on these occasions. Jump at the slightest thing. Maybe I’m overreacting, cause of my New Hampshire trauma.
Then again, Clinton was a 100-1 certainty to lose New Hampshire at one point, remember?
76 stjohn - 29/1 right now on Betfair - don’t tell me you’re in St
Jude mode again!
Any intelligence on how quickly after polls close can we expect to start hearing results? Its been fairly quick in most of the previous states.
She’s 29/1 for Hawaii, 13/1 for Wisconsin.
69 - Reliable voice? Hardly, but do think the exits look good for Obama. But mightundersampled the rural vote, which I’m guessing is better for Hillary than the city slickers.
73 - Forgot to include in my tour . . .
Outagamie Co = Appleton, major center of the Fox River Valley and hometown of Sen. Joseph McCarthy
Umm, 29 does appear to be Hawaii. Clinton is at 14 back, 20 lay (the highest price matched so far) for Wisc.
England have posted 340-6 in the one dayer in NZ if anyone’s interested.
79. If they don’t call immediately it means it’s fairly close. If their exit polls show a clear lead, the news orgs will call it the second polls close.
79. On the Dem side, if the numbers stack up they may call them immediately, judging by DC, MD and VA….
stjohn/seanT - Obama last matched on Betfair at 1/50. It’s over, enen by your standards, stjohn, it’s over!
PS Nice draw for WBA .
Sorry guys, my Betfair screen had frozen - she’s now into 13-1, but even so ……..she couldn’t possibly could she?
62-67 Well, most Wisconsin jokes involve ice fishing, beer, farmers daughters, and other things I’m not terribly familiar with . . . after the therapy that is.
Best Wisconsin joke I can come up with on short notice, from the Almanac of American Politics:
“In September 2004 John Kerry became the butt of jokes when he came to Green Bay and referred to Lambeau Field, home of the Packers, as “Lambert Field”, perhaps confusing it with the airport in St. Louis.”
Incredible that Kerry managed to win the state, albeit narrowly, versus W two months later!
Visited Madison too, I seem to recall looking around the state legislature. I also recall a proper high street with shops which, having been subjected to mall after mall, was a welcome change.
I don’t know any WI jokes either - nor does my b/f sad eh !!!!
All I know about WI is that every town we went through no matter how small had a garage and a bar -
- even 1 folk towns –
While we’re waiting, can someone please explain the derivation and meaning of the phrase “ixnay”?
Seeing it a lot on American blogs.
SSI - after that effort I’m rolling on the floor laughing - not!
Surely you can do better than that. How about a farmer’s daughter joke, we’re well past the watershed. Maybe seanT could help out, do you know any Thai farmer’s daughter jokes Sean, but keep ‘em clean please.
CBS have called Wis for Obama already?? That’s what they are saying on Kos. By a margin like VA.
Not definitively reliable.
Obama is going to win Wisconsin big time.
92 - It’s pig Latin isn’t it?
91. It’s pig latin, where you take off the first letter of a word, and then add it on the end and add “ay”. Nixay = nix = nothing.
Pig-latin for nix, meaning ‘no’ in Dutch. General meaning is ‘don’t do this thing we’re talking about’.
92. It’s too early here for rude jokes. Just 9am. Haven’t even had brekkers yet.
90 Did you get oily smudges around your beer glass?
Oi - it’s the way I tell ‘em!
Sorry, ‘nothing’, not ‘no’. Also, I’m too slow.
95-97. anksthay.
93. That was a troll, surely. Otherwise there’d be people chiming in, and it’d be on msnbc.com.
Apparently a 12point Obama win in Wisc, going by the gender gap. Again unconfirmed.
I think if he wins by double digits she is close to outright defeat.
So presumably shear is merely hearsay?
Wisconsin jokes? Try http://www.ahajokes.com/wisconsin_jokes.html I approve of it being illegal to worry a squirrel. Can we extend this to Labour MPs?
Anyone like me to repeat my joke in 99?
105: (ICM already obeying the law to be on the safe side)
103. No, it’s all about Ohio/Texas. She’s still got a 20% chance of getting the nomination until then.
Someone asked on the previous thread if the US networks were publicly funded. Only PBS is. The rest of them tend to have a liberal bias because generally journalists have an education. As the Democrats cover every political position left of and including moderately right-wing, they tend to fall in that spectrum.
stand by…
108 fox? liberal?
105 You mean we can all make jokes about Labour MPs Nick? Well thanks, are you hearing this seanT? That’s very big-hearted of you I must say.
Called Wisconsin for McCain, must have won big.
Mccain has won the Republican race
104 - afraid not - it’s earshay
110. Fox is the sole exception. The rest of the networks tend to have a subconscious ‘liberal’ bias. Fox has an outrageous deliberate ultra-conservative line.
Fox:
McCain wins Wisconsin.
Obama leading exit poll but not done as well in final vote count as in the exit polling.
112 - It seems that the delegates are given on a winner take all basis for each county, so he will probably win practically all of the delegates.
CNN exit
Obama 55.4
Clinton 43.0
113: He won it the moment he sneaked Missouri, perhaps even when he won Florida.
McCain speaking now.
119. McCain won it as soon as Giuliani flopped in Florida. Romney was never going to stand up to scrutiny.
120. McCain looking older by the day… wife do-able though..
114. Aaron. I think the Good Lord put you on this earth to watch over me and correct my mistakes!!
Am I the only one that finds Cindi McCain really scary looking?
CNN exit
McCain 52.0
Huckabee 36.0
Paul 6.6
122. How old is she?
CBS exit polls show a comprehensive Obama win in almost every demog.
http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/exitPoll.shtml?state=WI&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=D
Could be wrong, of course.
122 You put it so elegantly, Rod.
Accorsing to the CNN exit Obama won Democrats (64%) 50-49 and Independents (27%) 63-34.
126. about 53… still hot..
“I will work every day to ensure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change…..”
Good line - don’t rule him out.
Back again - was going to bed but had to administer Calpol to a two yeart old.
According to CNN website exit poll in Wisconsin is just over 800 voters - not a lot for an exit poll and for a state the size of Wisconsin.
I expect it’s a big enough margin for Obama - but let’s remember NH here.
121: I have some sympathy with that, but if he got 2% less in Missouri and maybe 5% less in CA, Romney would have still been in it. McCain probably would still have won, but it would be a slog.
126. Sixty four!
122 Rod, purleeze !
122 Well I suppose that follows - as my Doctor sometimes says:
“Unlike fine wines, none of us gets any better for keeping.”
Oi, it’s the way I tell ‘em!
Fifty four, poor maths skills…
According to the exit Obama won white men 59-38.
CNN just changed their exit - buggers….
Obama 55.8
Clinton 42.8
124 She’s called Cindi? Talk about living up to the name!
134 Fifty four I think. She does have an odd look I agree.
134. Thanks. I suspected she might be a bit older than she looks.
137. That’s more like it!!
140. And a former drug addict to boot.
134. What was the MOE on that estimate?????
Early results from Dane County showing a very solid Obama win. Could easily be double digits.
139 If it’s anything like a 13% lead, as per CNN, - how come everyone’s not already called it for Obama?
Clinton collapsing on intrade. Down to 25.
145. Probably pretty large as I had the inability to minus 1954 from 2008!
147 Maybe they’ve learnt from NH?
You might want to try this site - it seems to have the results a bit quicker than CNN…
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=719365
147. Obama is actually leading by 19% - 19% - in Dane County Wisc.
Huge margin. But maybe the networks are worried she might come back in poorer rural districts later.
144 It was painkillers I think. Hardly a crack addict.
Fox calls Wisconsin for Obama
147. Because of discrepancies between exit polling and results coming in from the first few districts. CNN has been queasy about making calls ever since Bush-Gore.
Wisconsin have one of the most open primaries around - you only choose which to vote in when in the polling booth. Nearly all of Obama’s margin comes from Independents and Republicans (obviously a good thing for him in demonstrating electability). However that makes the other demographic data less reliable as a guide to future primaries.
Obama won Democrats (63%) 51-48, Republicans (9%) 70-30, Independents (28%) 62-34
Fox: Obama wins Wisconsin.
Final exit poll 55-43
Dane County, Is Obama Territory he should be doing well there
153. She did steal to keep up the habit though. Still, she overcame it and everyone deserves a fresh start.
156, MSNBC too. Looks like they think it’s a blow out.
I’m very impressed by Karl Rove’s punditry on Fox. Obama has won, but not as big as he would like.
156. Thats not the exit poll, its the results in so far.
155 Obama won Democrats (63%) 51-48
Not too impressive then, in terms of his own party’s support.
Well, Obama’s gone unbackable at Befair.
On the very limited districts declared though, he’s only 10 up in Milwaukee where he should be strongest on the exit data.
Obama wins the exit poll question “Who cares about people like me?”
I said it a couple of weeks ago. First he wins poor men, then white women, then Hispanics.
Fox (final exit poll):
Clinton won women 51-48, BUT:
Obama won men 66-32
clinton won women 51/48
obama men 66/32
young - obama 59/39
plus both wage groups
where’s the fat lady
160. You what? Looks like Obama might have won by 10%. WHAT are you on about?
Two days ago the polls showed Clinton very close, if not ahead in Wisc. A month ago she thought it was a gimme.
The Hilaryspin ain’t working any more. SHE KEEPS LOSING.
162 - That is my point, probably the only consolation for Clinton in all the exit poll data, and that itself is a double edged sword. How can she claim to be the most electable if Independents and Republicans are voting for Obama. Also with the GOP race effectively over more Independents are likely to vote in the Dem primaries.
162 Yes but this should be good territory for her, PfP. If she can’t win here…
161. No, Fox said it was the final exit poll.
Votes so far may be similar but Fox clearly said it was the final exit poll.
160 - Huh? This is Wisconsin, Clinton should be winning here.
162. MSNBC exit poll says he won among Democrats, so who knows.
Clinton campaign spins that Wisconsin was always going to be favourable to Obama.
169 Better or worse for her than say Texas? Interesting that Rod C thinks she won’t win another state.
171. I argued a while ago that this was not the case, as Midwesterners like Obama a lot. However, she’s also lost places like Conneticut and Maine, so she needed to win on his soil to make up for that.
clinton on stage
106, 108 - You sir, are a gentleman, as the Squirrels of La Crosse (2- & 4-legged both) will attest.
Think that you should consider getting the UK to follow the progressive lead of Wisconsin (not for the first nor the last time I’m sure) when you next win the private members bill lottery.
Of course squirrels are used to having friends in high places.
173. I would be shocked if she didn’t win Texas. Half the Dem electorate must be Hispanics - unless her GOTV machine is atrocious she should take it.
172 - Hah!
Ha ha ha ha ha!
As for Democrat voters, you don’t win elections by persuading your own supporters to vote for you.
Clinton’s only glimmer of light is that PA is a closed primary, the only significant one left.
Here comes Bette Davis….
173. Yep, Rod Crosby has been quite accurate in his predictions so far. I thought he was overselling Obama, but no.
Not sure Clinton will lose every state from here on - Ohio and PA are surebets, I’d have thought - but its now looking very grim for her.
She needs a major major gaffe from Obama.
179. I can’t see the race still being alive by late April.
Clinton’s sounding genuine, which is rare for her.
All over for Clinton - I was hoping for a close result, but it looks like the consipiracy of silence worked against her in the polls. This was a low income state and she really should have won this. They showed it on CNN earlier, even if she wins every state from here on in by 55-45 she will only be level with Obama - she just wont unless Obama cocks up somehow.
End of. Now it’s time to back the GOP in November. Obama is a smooth-talking John McGovern - he’ll motivate the GOP base.
176 Of course squirrels are used to having friends in high places.
That really is a 2.30am joke!
181 a major gaffe from Obama or a serious dirty tricks hit on Obama….
183. Is John any relation to George?
Poor olds Hil’s - time for the tears thing again ?
(minus 11% after 6% of votes)
Barrack now on stage as well
Wisconsin Primary - Democrats
BROWN (Green Bay) 15/91 pcts O = 56% C = 43%
DANE (Madison) 34/223 pcts O = 59% C = 39%
KENOSHA 3/82 pcts O = 53% C = 46%
Clinton’s numbers sliding in WI as more counted - 12% behind…
The big O is speaking now….
185 - Its too late in the campaign now for a Democrat to risk making a dirty tricks hit on their probable candidate and why would a Republican make a hit (if they could) now and not hold their powder dry until after he’s the nominee already.
The Swift Boaters didn’t come out until Kerry was locked in as the nominee.
… it looks like the consipiracy of silence worked against her in the polls.
The what now?
Fox cuts straight to Obama, they couldn’t get Hillary off the screen quick enough.
Victory rally or what !?
185 - ah yes, it’s late….
183. “Obama is a smooth-talking John McGovern - he’ll motivate the GOP base.”
Bollox. All the evidence shows that Obama attracts Republicans and Indies as much as Dems. Check the CBS exit polls. He leads in every demographic, from the most liberal - to the most conservative!
McCain is a poor speaker, with a crabby persona. I rather like him. He’s a decent bloke, and a genuine war hero. But he’s 71 and grumpy.
Obama offers something new and refreshing to people from all parties. He also raises more money than any other candidate in history. He will cream McCain in Novemeber.
189 Philip
You assume that the Clintons would put the needs of the party ahead of their own needs…
186 One or other used to play for Derby County and another East Midlands team IIRC.
190 - the polls underestimated Obama’s vote - in New Hampshire it was the other way around
Amazing atmosphere at the Obama event, Hillary’s seemed to be a lot quieter.
194. Obama will probably have to commit to publicly financing, so money will be less of an issue.
Clinton narrows gap slightly, but her required catch-up is still increasing…
Wisconsin = telegram for Ohio
Why do states have both a primary and caucus?
Hillz down to 22 on intrade. The very sizeable Hillary bottom has dropped out of the Hillary market.
201. Not quite. Ohio is less Midwestern in attitude.
199 He dug himself a hole by committing to public funding if the Republicans would, and now McCain has called his bluff.
205. Not necessarily. He wants to pass campaign finance reform once he’s in office, and a successful presidential campaign through public financing would prove to people that it can work.
He could also save the money he’s raised to win support for major policies once in office.
Having said that, he could still get out of it. He could insist the RNC and DNC do not use private money either, and say that without that happening, public finance is pointless. Which the RNC wouldn’t do.
Obama not very inspirational tonight… yet