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What will this pic do for McCain’s White House hopes?

February 19th, 2008

    Does it underline Obama’s “Bush-McCain” rhetoric?

bush - mcain1.jpgIn recent weeks we have tended to focus on the battle for the Democratic nomination now that John McCain appears a near certainty to win the GOP race. But the real battle, of course, is the election in November and, at stake, is whether the Republicans can continue to occupy the White House.

Whenever Democratic front-runner, Barack Obama, has the chance he uses the term “Bush-McCain” to describe his party’s likely opponent in November. As the New York Times reports the idea is “to define Mr. McCain’s candidacy” as part of a ticket that they say “will essentially give the president another term.

So the 71 year old Arizona senator was on pretty tricky ground when he received Bush’s endorsement for the campaign. For Bush is experiencing some of the poorest ever ratings for a President and McCain does not want to fuel the campaign from the Democrats. This is challenging for in spite of his overall unpopularity Bush is still regarded well by two thirds of Republican supporters.

The current plan is for Bush to do a few fundraising events for McCain and to speak to specific audiences, like evangelicals, where the President might still have some sway. The critical thing that the Bush endorsement does is help ensure that those groups who backed him in 200 and 2004 continue to support the party’s nominee and turnout to vote.

For the one charge that McCain has found it hard to rebut is that he is “not a proper conservative”. Bush helps with that. The trouble is that pictures like the one above could just reinforce the determination of many Democratic supporters to vote.

In the betting on which party will win the White House the Democrats are the 1/2 favourites.

Mike Smithson



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300 comments to “What will this pic do for McCain’s White House hopes?”

  1. This just won’t stick as a charge. McCain in the popular imagination is pretty much the ultimate outsider - he is the Teddy Roosevelt of his age. Bush may help shore up conservatives and this will be a boon, though probably not much of one.

    If the Democrats really want to make headway against McCain, they will have to resort to ageism and, possibly more effectively, populism against his principled adherence free trade. They can’t make much of his immigration stance.


  2. Sorry the above was me - somebody using my computer ….


  3. McCain will run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. It’s big tent politics and he’s good at that. Relax. It’s only a photo.


  4. The Democrats can’t be very confident of winning if this is their campaign strategy.


  5. From Timesonline, regarding the £100m+ of professional fees payable by Northern Rock so far:

    “Sir Richard Branson’s consortium and a management team that also bid for the bank will each receive £5 million from the Treasury to cover part of their costs. There was also the prospect of further legal bills for the public purse.”

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3393372.ece

    Who exactly agreed that Branson would be reimbursed a bunch of fees if his bid was unsuccessful? Was it Northern Rock? Or was it extracted on the trip to China with Brown? It is an extraordinary position - and worthy of further investigation I would say.


  6. just to show how all over the place ARG is, it’s latest Wisconsin poll shows Obama leading 52-42, compared to the previous poll that showed Clinton leading 49-43…


  7. An easy retort for McCain

    I’m a consensus politician who will reach out to everyone - that way we can do what needs to be done. How can you claim to be occupying the middle ground if you demonise those who support the current administration?


  8. 5 - Fairly normal practice, I would think.


  9. I think McCain already has a big element of Bush with him in his hawkishness on Iraq etc. Not sure how far the picture will give McCain the “proper conservative” tag that Mike mentions. Tapestry - a picture, well and repetitively used can be very powerful in a campaign. In the Lib Dems we used a similar Blair with Bush pic to great effect in the run-up to the last GE. Alex - modern campaigns, and especially those in the US would not be complete without the “negative” elements. Yes - Why should you vote for me? But also, Why should you NOT vote for him or her?


  10. ****The next General Secretary of the Labour party does not have to be a member of that party****

    Clearly in line with some of the GOATIs that Gordon has appointed.

    Are New Labour now Labourless or Labourlite or sometimesLabour?
    :)

    An excerpt from Tribune …”sending out of a job speculation (specification?) for the general secretary’s job which did not even specify that the applicant should be a member of the Labour Party.”

    http://tinyurl.com/2mwj3d


  11. 8 Alex, in my experience it is unheard of for the potential buyer to be reimbursed his lost costs where they don’t proceed (except perhaps where the prospective purchaser found something during their due diligence of the assets which was so adrift from the sales memorandum, as to undermine the entire basis for reviewing the assets/company in the first place).

    Hence my interest.


  12. Castro steps down.


  13. 9 - My point was not that negative campaigning implied lack of confidence. My point was that negative campaigning using such a tenuous claim implied it.


  14. #5 Mark: It’s the *right* thing to have done.


  15. Since this thread has already gone utterly O/T I’ve no shame in doing the same.

    Half-seriously, I’d like to suggest a possible betting market. Consider this:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7250589.stm

    Much of the sickness referred to is mental illness of one sort or another (principally, depression). How long before a minister or government quango goes on the attack against a mental health charity, e.g. by accusing them of promoting the “sick note culture”? I’d suggest it can’t be more than 5-2 against by the end of next year…


  16. Mike,

    Just so that you know: Anthony Wells has your British Polling Council investigation story - regarding TfL/Ken Livingston and Ipsos-MORI - as the basis for his post today at UK Polling Report.


  17. 14 Oh, that’s all right then. Perhaps the Govt. would also like to do the “right” thing - and pick up the seven-figure legal bill which is in my in-tray for authorisation this morning. (You can see it kinda hit a raw nerve!)


  18. 10. I hereby coin the acronym LINO (Labour In Name Only).


  19. [18] :lol:


  20. 15, about six million people in the UK are on antidepressants. In fact, they’ve found trace amounts of prozac in the (non-bottled:p) water.

    Ironically, people who are either not depressed or very slightly depressed often go to the doctor thinking theya re depressed. They then get hooked on antidepressants… the withdrawal symptoms of which include… depression!

    The problem does need to be tackled. But you can’t make doctors into snitches or investigators. They’re in medicine to heal people, not to prescribe or not prescribe based on government’s whim.


  21. Even more O/T

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi…icle3386662.ece

    From The Times

    February 18, 2008

    Law firms get set to sue investment banks

    Alex Spence
    An increasing number of City law firms are breaking one of the profession’s greatest unwritten rules by positioning themselves to sue investment banks, confident that the first of an expected wave of lawsuits arising from the credit crunch will emerge in Britain within weeks…./

    Interesting that US firms are also setting up in the City ready to take down the banks that participated in Gordon’s unregulated miracle economy. The lawyers will do what the FSA should have done years ago–kept the predator banks honest and fearful of the consequences of acting irresponsibly.

    It will also be interesting to see how Gordon deals with suing his customers at NR when they start defaulting in droves. And how will he defend himself when the lawyers come after his bank? Will he point to 10 years of uninterrupted growth and inflation the lowest in the G7 and hope that will provide him with a defence?

    As the old inspector said in On the Buses: “You won’t get away with it this time Gordon…oh no.”


  22. McCain does not want to cuddle up to Bush, literally or metaphorically. If we wants to attract the moderates and independent voters, he must steer well clear of Bush and formulate his own agenda. People do not want four more years of the same disasters.

    http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com


  23. I think the line to take against McCain is that he’s a warmongering extremist. It fits with his anger-management problems, his ‘bomb Iran’ moment, his willingness to keep troops in Iraq permamently, and his ‘there’s going to be other wars’ comment. More importantly, though, it defines him on what he views as his own turf - that of fitness to become Commander-in-Chief. Now, it’s certainly true that this dovetails neatly with certain failings of Bush, but as an attack on his character, it is more difficult to combat than attacks on who he associates with (particularly as this includes many Democrats). It’s also worth noting that it’s worked before - LBJ used it on Barry Goldwater, with stunning success.


  24. 12. That will have some effect on US politics, though not quite sure how yet. McCain’s big tent won’t quite stretch as far as to embrace Cuba under either Castro; it will be interesting to see how the Democrats play it if as expected, Raul now pursues the China option of economic reform in a one-party dictatorship.


  25. [20] MD: which problem needs to be tackled?

    If you mean the reckless prescribing of anti-depressants, that’s a thing of the past, at least in my neck of the woods.

    If you mean the level of mental illness in society, well, if you’ve any suggestions I’m sure the government would like to hear them. Its nannyish approach IMHO will help some and make others even more ill than they already are. Once this becomes apparent, the temptation - because it’s cheap - to start scapegoating will become irresistible IMHO.


  26. I seem to remember a few years ago a Tory MP admitting, he hadn’t bothered to renew his party membership and technically wasn’t a member of the party.

    Should we really care? I wouldn’t for instance have problem with GB sacking Darling and replacing him with Vince Cable, I’d think good move.

    Political parties should become more like football teams,changing managers, picking the best players, regardless.

    If 20 years ago anyone had said, foreigners would be in charge of the England team, they would have been thought of as mad!

    Its time all of this silly tribalism was brought to an end.


  27. 18 Alan J :-) great idea.

    Maybe the LINO party’s membership has shrunk so much that they just have to widen the pool to find someone for the job?

    There is also a shortage of talent from the LINO MPs to appoint a Minister from. The best talent has been consumed and Gordon has to look outside LINO. Party membership being no longer a requirement. (Digby).


  28. 21 “As the old inspector said in On the Buses: “You won’t get away with it this time Gordon…oh no.” ”

    But Blakey (for it was he) used to end up saying that every week….

    Along with “I hate you Gordon. I really do…”


  29. 25, yeah mental illness is rising all throughout the world. We’re not as bad as America though (going by proportions not actual case numbers).

    It seems that collectivist cultures are generally happier. We can’t shift the whole nature of Britain, but we could perhaps try to do more to foster a sense of community. How? No idea, off the top of my head, but we used to be a bit more communal so we should look back at the differing behaviours (applicable today) of the 50s and 60s and see what’s changed.

    As a people, we need to relax more. We’re incredibly stressed out, even though life today is easier than ever before. We should also encourage sports and the like, which is both healthy, promotes teamwork and discipline.

    I know that’s vaguer than a a foggy day, but we have rather neglected mental health (not necessarily being whacko, just in terms of stress and happiness) individually and collectively for quite a while.


  30. 26 coldstone, yes good idea. Why not appoint the best talent. How about David Davis as Home Secy as that would stop him from claiming any more Home Secy scalps. Its GOAT-OP Govt Of All The Other Parties.
    :-)


  31. 23. Yes, what is it about senators from Arizona seeking the presidency?


  32. 31 and Goldwater, like McCain, wouldn’t be conservative enough for Rush Limbaugh


  33. 18 LINO is a peculaliarly apt term for Gordon - given that “the Scottish town of Kirkcaldy, in Fife, became the largest producer of lino in the world”.

    Spooky.


  34. re 31. Well Barry Goldwater was good enough for one Hillary Rodham in 1964. She was an enthusiastic supporter and campaigner….then she switched.


  35. 33, it’s quite clear that MI6, Gordon Brown and the Duke of Edinburgh are all in league!

    Anyway, straying back on-topic: I suspect that as he’s been around for a while and has been the heir apparent for a while that McCain’s image is largely settled with voters.


  36. [29] That’s about right - relax more and exercise more.

    As you imply, a capitalist society functions on worry (i.e. fear): the principal cause of our (realtively) poor mental health is our standard of living - or, more precisely, the desire that it will go on increasing.

    David Cameron has a lot of warm words about “quality of life” issues (no doubt because of his son) and I daresay he is sincere. Can he take his party with him? Not a cat’s chance…


  37. 30
    Why not! During WW2 Churchill got on much better with the Labour members of the coalition government than he did with the Tories.


  38. 36, although we’re broadly in agreement I’d dispute your use of the word capitalist to equate individualist/non-collectivist.

    Japan is capitalist, but also collectivist.

    I also think that certain aspects of modern life are particularly unhelpful. Mobile phones are useful if you’re stuck on a mountain with a broken leg, but (off the clock) they’re just a distraction. The internet means that kids today are less social than ever (I’m aware of the high irony content of that point), with social anxiety disorder continuing to rise.


  39. 36. I think all of the terms that come under the umbrella heading “new economics” would be a great theme for one party to adopt as it’s message. It includes, strong environmental policy, stress on quality of life, stress on social institutionss (marriage, family, community) and good public services. It could have strong cross party support and all parties have made some effort on at least one part of it.


  40. [38] Interesting point about Japan. See http://tinyurl.com/yvmh6e
    which suggests that the overall rate of mental illness there is about half ours. However, Japan is also a shame-based culture - see http://tinyurl.com/yqp75r - so I wonder how comparable the findings really are.

    I like the idea of incorporating meditation into mainstream health care, though.


  41. 40, absolutely. Japan also has some bizarre psych problems of its own, including that certain young men never leave a single room in their house. There’s also a yin/yang related issue which can see the sufferer’s penis withdraw into his body.

    We can’t (and shouldn’t attempt to) transport a whole culture into Britain, but trying to learn from our own past and overseas to improve the mental health situation is common sense.


  42. Is betfair down ?


  43. I guess the “Will the LDs receive any benefit from getting NR right” question has been answered today: the media has generally and conspicuously omitted any mention of the fact that Cable has been calling it right all along. The right-wing media because it distracts from the Tory agenda, and the left-wing media because it would make Gordon seem like a ditherer (see Polly Toynbee’s comical “everything is great” article today!)

    I note that Andrew Neil pulled the same stunt yesterday on The Daily Politics. He even used MP Jim Cousin’s quote repeatedly without once bothering to mention that it was the Lib Dem policy referred to in the question!

    Back to business as usual for the media I guess…


  44. 40. I lived in Japan for a few months. There is much to admire in that culture - not least the brilliant things they do with chicken and sesame - and the lack of crime - and the beautiful temples - and buses that arrive on time, to the second - and compulsory short plaid skirts for schoolgirls - I wish we could have all of these in Britain.

    But no one in their right mind would want to import all the neuroses of that deeply hierarchical society, where people kill themselves if they think they have offended the boss.

    The Japanese are some of the most stressed-out people you will ever meet. They are nuts. Yes there is a collectivist ideal which is great, but at huge expense to the individual.


  45. compulsory short plaid skirts for schoolgirls - I wish we could have all of these in Britain.

    No mention of used-knicker dispensers? ;)


  46. 45. The Japanese are obsessed with pants, especially young girls pants, most especially young western girls pants.

    All the western girls I knew in Kyoto - and there were quite a few, mainly TEFL teachers - had to dry their lingerie indoors. If they tried to hang their smalls on the line they would get stolen within about two minutes. Without fail.

    I’d hazard a guess Japan has more males with bizarre sex fetishes, per capita, than any community on earth (apart from the British Lib Dems, obviously). What that says about Japan’s mental health I dunno.


  47. Even more off thread than usual today.

    On thread - don’t know if it would have same resonance but the picture above reminded me of Mork & Mindy TV series where their child was an old man. It shows McCain as a little old man - much more damaging than the fact he’s hugging Bush.


  48. 43 Surely the big question is not whether the State takes control of Northern Rock, because it has been in some sort of control for six months and NR would be bust without continued state support, but what it does when in control. Osborne is clear that it should be closed to new loans / deposits and the book run off as fast is practical, short of a fire sale. Cable says the books should be examined to see if it is viable as a going concern. Darling is trying to wash his hands of the decision, but with his emphasis on continued donations to charity, and his previous comments about job losses, it seems that he favours operation as a going concern to save jobs.

    I don’t see why this mean “Cable was right all along” as stated at 43 and ad nauseam earlier. Surely we still have the bizarre situation where a professed Liberal Democrat is advocating state ownership of a bank that could compete with the private sector for deposits, loans, charity donations, shirt sponsorship etc etc. What’s Liberal about that?

    No time to stop, I’m off to move my money into NR.


  49. At last, that explains many of your posts Sean - You learnt your English from TEFL girls!

    Surprised that the Japanese have time for sex fetishes I thought they were all Kamikaze pilots or Geisha girls..


  50. OT Did Today/Humphries apologise profusely this morning for using a bogus quote as the basis for their attack on Darling? Quite interesting (and not entirely their fault), but people should learn that Hansard isn’t a verbatim record of the commons.


  51. While we’re on the theme of Japanese and sex, I’ve heard a joke from the local go-go girls here in Bangkok (with whom I have been doing a lot of good work, in the community).

    The girls call any Japanese man “mister 4″. Why?

    Because they pay four thousand baht

    They are four inches long

    And they last four minutes

    It’s stuff like this that makes pb such an invaluable archive for future historians of British politics.


  52. [51] 4000 baht equals £6.30 (roughly)


  53. 49. Brilliant, belongs on the letters page of viz!


  54. 51 Ah so that’s why they call you “Mister 2″


  55. 54. lol! Mark, that’s actually quite funny.

    52. Er, no. 4000 baht is about sixty quid. Twice the average price. The theory is the Japanese overpay to make up for their insecurities elsewhere.


  56. 48. A decent bet must be that Sandler doesn’t last more than year. He is going to want to wield the axe pretty seriously to try to shore up NR, but the political pressure on him to ’save jobs’ are going to be huge - what are traditional Labour voters and Northern MPs going to make of a 90k per month axeman presiding over thousands of job losses?


  57. New Wisconsin projections: Obama and McCain lead.

    http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/new-wisconsin-projections/

    New British projections (with Rolling Averages and Polls-of-polls as reference points)

    http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/british-polling-projections-conservative-majority-of-4/


  58. Hopi Sen - 50 - Does anyone in politics apologise profusely for using a bogus quote or even for lying?

    For example, the next time Gordon Brown claims that “we are the party with low inflation and low interest rates” (as he did,for example, according to Hansard, as recently as 6 Feb 2008, Column 949) would someone please explain to the economic retard that there are still a few countries on earth with lower interest rates than the United Kingdom - Austria, Belgium, Canada, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan and the United States of America to name but 25.


  59. 48 What was most concerning was that after 6 months, huge bills from finance experts and private buyers that Mr Sandler seemed to think there hadn’t been any due diligence. We proud owners of Northern Rock seem to have bought a pig in a poke and the Treasury seems unclear on what the ongoing strategy should be.


  60. 51 I will be checking this, SeanT, with a reliable local source.


  61. 59. Various scavengers have indeed feasted on the rotting carcass of NR already, and by the looks of it, there is more to come.


  62. 51 - I’m on a date with a Japanese man this lunchtime. I think I might keep that particular anecdote to myself.


  63. 58. All I wanted was a response to a factual question. Did they or not- I didn’t catch today this morning (asleep), but saw Nick Robinson’s blog when I went online this morning and was wondering.

    I mean, it was kind of their main take on the story yesterday morning, and it was wrong. As I said, I don’t think what they did was awful and terrible, because most people treat Hansard as a perfect record, but they did get a key element of their coverage yesterday wrong, and I wondered how they dealt with it this morning.


  64. 63. I’m sure they couldn’t care less - and why should they? Why apologise to a corpse?


  65. 42. Anyone ? Bueller ? Bueller ?


  66. 65 - Working alright for me. And the answer is the Laffer Curve.


  67. 43 - regarding Polly’s highly entertaining submission to the debate, as often on Commentisfree the best stuff is to be found in the comments, where sadly not everyone appears to be copying her “la la la la I can’t hear you” approach to the ominous rumblings in the global economy.


  68. 64. Charming response.

    Since you ask, they should care because reporting the biggest political story of the moment wrongly is kind of embarassing and should be rectified at the same level of coverage that the original mistake was made, as I’m sure you’ll make abundantly clear next time the BBC makes a mistake that makes Cameron or Osborne look bad.

    God, the level of response to a fairly innocent enquiry makes me wonder if someone as CCHQ gave Robinson the quote and is now getting reamed for it.


  69. 44 Peado Alert!


  70. 68. stop fantasising - your remarks really aren’t worthy of official attention, at any level.


  71. Has La Toynbee secured a contract with the Daily Mash?

    One comment read ‘I’ve read better economic analysis on CBeebies.’


  72. O/T Spain - Polls are getting closer and closer

    TNS Demoscopia for Antena 3
    PSOE 41.8% (-0.9 since last week)
    PP 40.2% (+1.1)
    IU 5.4% (-0.1)
    CiU 2.9% (-0.2)
    ERC 1.9% (-0.2)
    PNV 1.6% (=)
    Others 6.2%

    Projected seats with comparison from present Parliament
    PSOE 163 (-1)
    PP 156 (+8)
    IU 4 (-1)
    CiU 8 (-2)
    ERC 7 (-1)
    PNV 7(=)
    Others 5 (-2)

    All recent seat projections are showing the same trend: PSOE stable (or a very limited loss), single digit gains for the PP from regionalist parties. This overall trend could mask two trends : small direct gains from PSOE to PP and equivalent gains from regionalist parties to PSOE.

    The seat margin between PSOE and PP is still substantial. However, the small poll margin (+1.5 points) shows that Zapatero is still vulnerable to a further PP rise. If the PP manages to come evens in terms of votes, the seat margin will soon become thinner (actually some analysts think that PP would get more seats with a score equal to the PSOE’s)


  73. 58: Are you joking? Does Brown apologise for implying that Cameron somehow masterminded Lamont’s actions on Black Wednesday instead of being an insignificant minor staffer?

    A minor change of nuance by a Hansard scribe doesn’t change the fact that Darling didn’t want to nationalise NR, but has ended up having to given that it is a dead bank walking. Now he is pretending it’s “in taxpayers interests” :roll:

    It’s like you are arguing about the positions of the deckchairs just before the iceberg loomed up in the fog…


  74. Hopi Sen, you are a Labour troll and treated accordingly.


  75. 74. Harsh - a fan but not a troll.

    Northern Rock is going to decide the next election - of that I’m convinced. A stunning own goal that if a November election had not been planned would be consigned to history already.


  76. 72 - Chris, Many thanks. Remind us again when the election takes place


  77. Will the odds on a new Speaker for 2008 change?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7252311.stm

    Didn’t the guy behind this complaint also move against Conway?


  78. OT Alastair Darling throws down the gauntlet to Brown. Sack me and I’ll take you down with me:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/02/19/do1901.xml


  79. Meanwhile Oborne reckons that Darling is toast:

    “he’s held in almost total contempt by Downing Street.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/dailymail.html?in_article_id=515990&in_page_id=1790


  80. 76- 9 March


  81. O.K,this joke could get me barred for life-but what the heck?
    An English buisnessman is out in Tokyo-he has a day off,so unwinds over a round of golf.He hits a hole in one.A passer-byer screams ‘Nikki-nakki-noo! Nikki-nakki-noo!’ The Englishmean is bemused by this.This happens again later in the round-he holes in one,and the same words are screamed at him.
    Feelinh quite pleased with his performance on the fairway,after eating his dinner,he showers,changes his clothes and goes out on the pull at a Tokyo nightclub.He pulls a girl,they end up spending the night in his Tokyo bedroom.All night,the girl screams ‘Nikki-nakki-noo!Nikki-nakki-noo!’
    The following morning,the man goes down to reception,at about 7.30am. Japenese and oriental people are noted for their manners and courtsey,but everyone is chuckling,some laughing quite loudly.
    Somewhat perturbed,the man walks to the reception desk,where the male reception falls on the floor,in absolute hysterics of mirth.#
    The Englishman asks ‘Whats so bloody funny?
    The receptionist replies ‘You know what ‘nikki-nakki-noo’ means?
    The Englishman shakes his head .
    The receptionist says ‘Wrong bloody hole!!!’


  82. racist….just go to show the tories haven’t changed


  83. 81 I never realised Ken Dodd could speak Japanese ;-)


  84. 79. PM briefing against Chancellor, and the reverse…

    …who said Labour wasn’t descending into internecine conflict, and that there was admirable discipline in the ranks?

    Was it perhaps that beacon of truth, Nick Palmer?


  85. 80 - Ta.


  86. 82. I’m getting sick of this ‘Tories haven’t changed’, mantra everytime someone comes out with a questionable comment.

    *Individuals* are racist. None of the mainstream political parties are.


  87. 82: In what way racist? It’s not is it.


  88. 86,87. Hook line and sinker ?


  89. 82,86 - And from recollection Patrick is definatlely NOT a Tory…


  90. 87 I took JJ’s comment at 82 to be ironic but if it’s not then he’s clearly let all the PC nonsense go to his head.


  91. On topic - There is a case for the Dems tying McCain to Bush on policy.

    Iraq - Identical policies, if anything more committed to staying the course.
    Taxes - Has promised to keep the Bush tax cuts.
    War on Terror - Same policy of fighting them over there rather than over here (although he has said he would shut down Gitmo and end torture)
    Immigration - Exactly the same views as Bush, wants a comprehensive solution
    Healthcare - Same policy as Bush, let the market decide but use tax breaks to encourage portability and keep down costs.

    There are a few issues where McCain is different - climate change being a notable example. But on the substantive issues he is full square in line with Bush. This could be doubly damaging an attack because it presents himself as a flip-flopper. He did disagree with Bush on taxes for example but now he has got back in line.

    The Democrats need to undercut his maverick image and reputation for straight talking. It is the Rovian strategy - turn opponents strengths into weaknesses. The opportunity is certainly there.


  92. 82. Correct….just causing mischief ;-)


  93. i mean 88


  94. Oh dear, what have I started now.


  95. 94. Yesterday Europe, Today Japan, Tomorrow……?


  96. New SUSA Texas poll shows Obama continuing to close the gap on Clinton. Their figures are Clinton 50 Obama 45.

    The racial breakdown:

    Whites (45%) Clinton +12
    Blacks (18%) Obama +57
    Hispanic (32%) Clinton +33


  97. As I am not derogatory,destructive,patronising in anyway towrads the Japenese,I consider the joke,NOT GUILTY of racism-it is a play on words


  98. According to Caroline Jackson a Tory (just) MEP in yesterdays Guardian the Conservatives are still the “Nasty party” in Europe.


  99. Furthermore,I am willing to form a cross-party alliance against political correctness-it insults common sense,our heritage and I want to NUKE it!!!


  100. 98. We could do with a bit of nasty right now - pay off the 6000 civil servants working at NR for a start.


  101. 97 It was quite funny, Patrick.

    And the joke was on the businessman.


  102. Bob Ainsworth Watch - Labour’s Keith Lard lookalike and Paxman whipping boy is on the Daily Politics - coming up soon.

    Bob Ainsworth
    http://gallery.meefo.com/image.php?type=photo&id=1698

    Keith Lard
    http://www.epolitix.com/NR/rdonlyres/40AEAD71-CEE4-4DD1-BE0E-AF8D7D7B324A/0/BobAinsworth.jpg


  103. 99. hear hear. I second the use of common sense and tactical nuclear weapons


  104. 99. ps hope you realise i was just being cheeky before and above as well


  105. 68 Agree that if you read the whole thing it reads better than Today made it seem but Darling’s eagerness to attack Cable in his reply muddied his response. Politicians know that anything unclear will be misread or re-interpreted. Otherwise where would “Crisis no crisis”,”no such thing as society”,”the pound in your pocket”,”hugging hoodies” be?


  106. I don’t know if anyone remembers a Chris Morris sketch in the estimable ‘Jam’ where you could employ stupid people to argue for you, as they never knew when they were beaten? Watching Bob Ainsworth on the Daily Politics is like that, someone who has no leg to stand on, the figures against them, attacked from all sides, and *still* blundering on saying that everything is hunky dory in the armed forces.


  107. 98. Sheesh. I just read Caroline Jackson’s piece on FT. She’s so europhile her husband defected to Labour over Europe.

    Why does the Tory party still shelter these ageing europhile trollops with their ludicrous views? I thought they had all joined Andrew “traitor” Duff in the Lib Dems? Or Quentin Quisling Davies in Labour?

    Time to clean the stables, Cammo. Get rid!


  108. 106

    Oh dear, the hapless, and hopeless, Bob Ainsworth skewered once again live on TV, this time by Andy Neil. It’s like leading a lamb to slaughter.


  109. 106 Ainsworth is indeed the Black Knight of modern politics, unable to acknowledge that he has a leg left to stand on….


  110. 107,

    The MEP selection process has been changed as well so grass root tories are not getting the chance to deselect Europhile MEPs. Caroline Jackson is stepping down at the next Election.


  111. Ainsworth told Neil that he has recently spoken to our troops on the front line in Afghanistan and they are “enjoying themselves”.

    You couldn’t make it up, as RL might say.


  112. Ainsworth should have watched Ross Kemp in Afghanistan before he opens is mouth - the guy is a first class idiot.


  113. 107. The article is very funny - she is upset that Tories are being ‘rude’ to their European colleagues. Perhaps they aren’t using the correct fork at dinner time, either.

    Mme Jackson won’t be missed, and it would be better if the rest of her ilk slung their hooks as well.


  114. Yes sorry, La Jackson’s piece was in the FT. I thought the Conservative party was a broad church - Ha!


  115. 106.With the death toll rising amongst our armed forces and real shortages of basic equipment to protect them, this government wants to squeeze another 4.5Billion of the MOD budget. As Andrew Neil pointed out, they will reward a badly behaved bank, but will not find the money to give our soldiers enough helicopters or armed vehicles to get them through an area as dangerous as Helmand province in Afghanistan. I don’t know how this lot sleep at night!


  116. 110. Standing down you say? Oh dear. What a pity. No longer will we benefit from her sterling work on the European Pointless Ratbag Directive - a directive named, I believe, in her honour.


  117. 114 - it may well be a broad church, but Mme Jackson’s beliefs place her in the mosque next door.


  118. 117. :) :) :)


  119. A broad church it is. Unlike threatening to remove two of your hardest working MPs because they support a referendum.

    Given Ian Davidsons performance on Radio 5 this morning, are they going to remove the whip from him as well?


  120. 114. The Conservative party is indeed a broad church, if it can attract votes from libertarian nutters like me as well as the likes of the late-lamented Mrs Test.

    What the Conservative party does not want, Ii magine (not being a member)is to stretch the term broad church so far it actually encompasses traitors.

    But the traitors needn’t worry, they will find a happy home in the Lib Dems, where their leader Andrew Duff is openly yearning for “the English to be defeated”.


  121. 117,

    Islamophobe.


  122. 107/110 Given her opinions, it would have been most unlikely that Caroline Jackson would have been reselected, had she stood again. The various regional selection committees are made up mainly of constituency chairmen (such as myself) and council leaders, whose views on the EU don’t differ very much from those of ordinary party members. Several strongly europhile MEPs are in fact standing down next time.


  123. 115. Squaddies vote Tory, though don’t they? Or at least the army is Tory, isn’t it?


  124. 12. Good man. & Good news.


  125. 123 - Dont recollect any specific polls but the voting patterns of a seat such as Aldershot would appear to suggest more Tory than Joe Public, but not a massive block vote.


  126. Sean,

    Humble members should have a voice and they don’t. If looks like a stitch-up, feels like a stitch up, then its a stitch up.

    Local Democracy gets talked about, but when it should be applied to internal party democracy it goes out of the window. Your post above smacks of “This is want you want, and this is what your getting.”

    The party is wrong on this Sean and your defending the indefensible.


  127. 123 A bit of a generalisation there I think, a bit like saying teachers vote Labour.


  128. Does anyone know when the next poll is out?

    I’m sure some editors will have commissioned some in light of NR.


  129. 121 - um, thanks, I think?


  130. O/T but someone has put in a complaint about Gorbals Mick..

    http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/


  131. 122. Tory europhilia is really long past its sell-by date. It is rooted in 1950s-1970s attitudes about the inevitability of British economic decline, the superiority of the ‘continental economic model’, and the need to replace the empire with some new supernational organ by which the UK could project its influence. These concepts are alien, bizarre even, to Tories who grew up in the Thatcher period and subsequently.


  132. 129,

    It meant as joke…


  133. 123.Two old long retired *squaddies* recently told me that the armed forces were always underfunded by both previous Labour and Tory governments, but it always noticeable worse under a Labour government.
    That maybe why there is that perception, although you will hear them say they serve Queen and country rather than any government.


  134. 131. Yup.

    Caroline Jackson’s age is telling: 61. Born in 1946.

    Cf Andrew “traitor” Duff - born in 1950.

    For balance sake, let’s take an arch Labour europhile: Charles Clarke. Born in… 1950.

    There’s something about the generation of pols born between 1935 and 1955 which seems to makes them risibly and pitifully europhile. I guess, as you say, its Britain’s relative economic decline in the 60s and 70s that scarred them or something, or, more likely, they were all infected with some gangrenous brain disease from eating snoek or rissoles* and that’s made them stupid, blobby and hideous, which they are.

    Anyway they will all be retiring soon. Hooray!

    *horrible food popular in Britain in the 40s and 50s.


  135. 132 …that’s a relief. You’ve never struck me as a humourless lefty before.


  136. 135,

    Good!!


  137. 134 SeanT from your attitude, your formative years were spent in the Blitz.


  138. Yeah I saw a picture of Obama hugging Clinton, that means he’s just Hillary in another guise…no really..

    Christ….


  139. Polly Toynbee on NR.

    “A domino collapse of confidence in other banks has been averted, and the taxpayer will rpobably get every penny back. Just about every newspaper leader and serious economic commentator said this was the right decision, because of course it was.”

    I really want to see some polls.


  140. Guido has details of the first repossession by NR.gov


  141. 139. Fab stuff. She missed her vocation, i.e. ‘writing’ for Pravda/Isvestia in the good old days….


  142. This Tory attack on the nationalisation of Northern Rock being Labour’s black Wednesday is absurdly exaggerated. And if they start trying to remind people of the 70s, then the 80s and Thatcher become fair game too. Anyway, this is nothing like Labour nationalisations of old, it’s a temporary and reluctant nationalisation, not one driven by ideology.

    I think Mike makes a much more telling point, that the government is now officially exaggerated.


  143. … sorry, that the government is now officially in charge. That could bring some real problems.


  144. 141. She’s right it has had a tentatively positive response. At least in the media, so far. I imagine if (when) it goes t*ts up they’ll turn against it.


  145. 144. What media the Granuaid and the “Indy” ?

    Still Gordon can always be thankful that the rest of the world thinks he’s doing the right thing…

    http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/02/how-world-is-viewing-northern-rock.html


  146. 145. Sun and Mirror and FT were also positive.


  147. 146. You obviously missed Newsnight last night too..


  148. 142.Labour under Blair and Brown have been like a broken record when it comes to reminding us of the Thatcher/Major years.
    Its too early to tell if the NR nationalisation will become Labour’s black Sunday.

    The Coffee House blog is reporting that Opik joins the yellow rebels
    Could Nick Clegg be facing a wee rebellion over the Lisbon Treaty?


  149. 139. Oh dear. Polly put the kettle on.

    OK, I’m off to do some community work with the local young people.

    Be good, peebles.


  150. OT anyone any strong idea about who McCain might choose as his running mate?

    I see Ladbrokes have their prices up. Condi at 12s anyone?


  151. 150. Condi has too may overtones of the bush administration.


  152. 150. Names mentioned include Crist, Pawlenty, Sanford & the Governor of Georgia.

    Huckabee has lost his betting value.


  153. 142 “And if they start trying to remind people of the 70s, then the 80s and Thatcher become fair game too.”

    Oh yeah - like the Labour Party has had mass amnesia about the Thatcher years…


  154. 134 SeanT - You’re getting close.

    It may have something to do with playing on bombsites as a kid - fun, but had its hazards.

    Watching the reconstruction of London was also an influence.


  155. 92: OK fair cop :-)

    I have heard such PC over-reactions though in my defence…


  156. On-topic, although McCain is the most difficult of the opponents the Democrats could face, I think the Congressional elections proved that the Republican brand is damaged; Bush is a symbol of that, but not the whole thing. If that’s the case, McCain’s only hope is to run on a bunch of maverickish themes that people don’t associate with Bush or the Republican party (cleaning up politics etc), but that would close off his ability to attack Obama from the right: Every time he made a right-wing attack, Obama could connect him with the Republicans and their record. This picture would be one small weapon in his armoury, but he’d have plenty more. That said, in the unlikely event that Hillary wins the primary, McCain could run against Clinton sleaze instead. The Bush connection would lose its potency, and McCain would probably win.

    Off-topic, I’d be interested to hear if anyone knows of any specific Japanese people who would kill themselves if they think they have offended the boss. Particularly system administrators and software engineers. Cheers.


  157. 142 What made Black Wednesday a black day for Major was not that the decision to leave the ERM was wrong, it was that it exposed that Major’s claim to economic competence with which he won the previous election was false. Its importance is an event on which, in hindsight, can be hung the end of Major’s reputation and the beginning of the end of the Conservatives reign.

    We don’t know yet whether the Election that wasn’t or Northern Rock will become that defining moment for Labour.


  158. 157. the election that never was, ruined brown’s reputation as being post-partisan, big tent politics, that and the Iraq stunt made him seem petty and partisan.

    It’s very tempting to use 1992-1997 as a model for the current political climate, but it doesn’t really work that well. Things are different, i think the brown government has/will suffer death by a thousand cuts instead of one symbolic defeat. Whether this is a cut or a sticking plaster, remains to be seen.


  159. 70/74 - god, getting accused of trolling by trolls and blue harpies with risible nomdeinternetguerre’s.

    Been there, done that, and had it from people with more wit and style than you could ever muster.

    Unfortunately, you’ve got the flashing repartee of a mentally deficient tortoise and are strictly Rymans league. Be off with you.


  160. 157.I think the tipping point for Labour was last September/October caused by the ill judged political pile up of disastrous decisions made by Gordon Brown.


  161. 160.A lot of the problems the government face this year will have their roots in politically motivated decisions taken in that period.


  162. 160/1 Agreed.


  163. 160./161. More than a significant amount of truth in that, but i wouldn’t have called it the tipping point, people were still saying, “Brown needs to recapture the momentum” and suchlike, he wasn’t yet written off at that point.

    2007/8 will be a great period for future historians.


  164. Will Hillary target Obama’s pledged delegates?

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8583.html


  165. O/T Credit Suisse suspend traders for covering up losses

    http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7252162.stm

    Gets worse for the banking sector..


  166. 164.

    A worrying sign if it is true. Going after your opponents pledged delegates is the last roll of a dice of a campaign, since it implicitly assumes that you can’t get enough support from your own delegates and superdelegates. Romney tried that the day before he dropped out.


  167. Also think that the 13.00 (12/1) on Lieberman being McCain’s running mate is excellent value.


  168. What I found astonishing wrt Gordon Brown’s popularity collapse was the speed with which it occurred, a double digit lead in the polls before September and the opposite come October.

    What on earth his advisers were doing sending him to Iraq during conference time or the unnecessary lie as to why he called off the election can hardly account for such a turn round. If his demeanour or physical appearance with the public is the turn off, what was the initial appeal?

    Since then the catalogue of disasters both major and minor has been constant and with little sign of a let up; a week is a long time in politics but it is hard to believe his rating could improve much if at all this year.


  169. 164, 166 - A real risk that it would be counter-productive too - given momentum has moved to Obama recently, he might even pick up some Hilary delegates from the earlier contests. I can’t imagine the Hillary HQ is a happy place to be working right now, if they are publically trailing this as their winning strategy.