Is it time to be betting on PRESIDENT Tony?
February 21st, 2008
Will the Stop-Blair coalition get its way?
I was slightly reticent about doing this story because the words “Tony Blair” and “European Union” don’t bring out the best in parts of the PBC community. But why not because there is lots of coverage today about Tony Blair’s desire to try to become President of Europe and the coalition of interests that is lining up to try to stop him.
Rod Liddle in the Spectator notes that “..the former PM has pulled off an astonishing feat: uniting Left and Right, Europhiles and Eurosceptics, people of all nations and creeds, online and in print, in their glorious campaign to prevent him becoming President of Europe”.
Under the heading “Merkel says nein to President Blair” the First Post reports that the German Chancellor is solidly against because Tony is not seen as “a good enough European”. Pity about that Iraq thingy.
But all is not lost. President Sarkozy is backing Blair and there could be support, too, from Silvio Berlusconi if he wins back the Italian presidency.
Meanwhile Ben Brogan report in his Mail blog: “I hear for example that Hans-Gert Poettering, the president of the European parliament, has requested a meeting with Mr Blair and will be joining him - and Cherie - for breakfast at Claridge’s next Wednesday. Mr Poettering is in London on an official visit and will meet the Queen and Gordon Brown. While the meeting is ostensibly about Mr Blair’s work in the Middle East, Mr Poettering is a big player and their talk will form part of the slow courtship being engineered by Mr Blair.”
The big factor in Blair’s favour is said to be the opposition to the other major candidate, Jean-Claud Juncker.
In the betting Blair is 2/1 with Junker at 3/1. I don’t know enough about the politics here to judge the value.
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As Andrea’s official representative in Surrey, let me correct a heinous error: Silvio seems set to regain the Premiership not the Presidency.
1: The President of the Council of Ministers is Italy’s prime minister.
What is a ‘good enough European’ exactly? Obviously not someone with totally moderate views who happens to disagree with Ms Merkel. This kind of self-righteousness only harms the pro-EU cause.
Explains the query about SeanT’s whereabouts
Surely Blair would only be interested if he could encompass Presidency of the Council of Ministers with Presidency of the Commission? Perhaps he sees that opportunity? According to the “no reason to have a referendum” crowd its otherwise just Chairman of occasional meetings.
Instinctively, Mike, 2/1 sounds like poor value. There must be some strong candidates out there we barely know.
74. No need to get so grumpy Matthew. I’m sure Clinton will turn it around after the inevitable “Iraq bounce”.
168. Great post. I’m inclined to believe you in most cases, but I think as politicians get older they become worn down by the system, more and more focused on getting in power, and less concerned about having honest views. I think Brown and Clinton are both in this position. Cameron and Clegg aren’t yet, although I get the feeling Cameron would go down this road quicker than most. Clegg’s never going to be close enough to power for this effect to be strong.
180. You have to say that the three men he is said to remind people of are John Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King. Very forboding.
173. Obama is no bubble. The reason he seems so clean isn’t because there isn’t stuff the other side can use, but because he is very good at letting stuff slide off his back it doesn’t seem like a big deal. Clinton, however, makes a pig’s ear of coming out fighting to any accusation, turning it into a big story and making it worse.
Have to agree with you that Clinton is not out of this yet though. Texas is its own state unlike the ones so far and we never know how things could turn out there. As outside observers, we also have only the tiniest glimpse of the minds of superdelegates, their throught processes or their historical links with the two campaigns. I’m going to keep her on 20% for winning the nomination for now, although that could be significantly reduced if she fails to deliver on March 4.
OT: McCain press conference on NYT allegations. Seems completely at ease dismissing the charge, answering questions very honestly and handling it all very well. Wife beside him looking not bothered. This story shouldn’t do much damage.
Obama wins democrats aboard vote.
11 in a row…the big mo.
Why can’t Blair just ride off into the sunset like previous PM’s, disappear onto the lecture circuit, write the autobiography and after what ever amount of years it takes the public to forget, then unveil the statue or two in Parliament etc?
madasafish - your post at the end of the last thread.
You have put your finger on reasons nationalisation is a bad idea - it wasn’t bad luck that NR wasn’t bought by a private bidder - its because they gave the family silver away for 50 year bonds covered by 15 year mortgages. Hence impossible for the govt to run the bank down and reduce new business.
Darling is screwed as are the taxpayers - this is bad.
7 - What are they aboard?
CNN reporting that this accusation against McCain is rallying conservatives behind him to defend against the liberal NYT slur.
7 - Any idea how the 14 Dems Abroad delegates have split?
11. The Obama train, like everyone else!
Please please please make him president. Is there any betting on whether Gordon snaps completely if he’s elected (using that word in its loosiest possible form)
Surely nore important is what would President Blair do for Labours chances at the next election?
ukpaul @ 13.
Obama beats Clinton 2/1.
http://www.democratsabroad.org/article/2008/02/20/thank-you-voting-global-primary-watch-space-results
17. I will take some of that 2/1 PJ that Obama beats Clinton. How much can I have on?
Gordon, give us our promised Referendum. Then we can vote down the whole idea of a Euro-Prez - and squash Tony’s ambitions. Surely, that would help cheer you up?
Can you imagine how wretched Gordon is going to feel, fighting for fifteen years to get the top job, only to find that once he gets it, Blair has slotted a new tier in above him - and is lording it over him again.
Maybe that explains his mood…
Lords defeat government plans to nationalise NR….
20 Did we get to the bottom of whether it is a finance bill?
Government’s lucky day. Suffolk serial killer guilty.
18
Shall I put that down in Recorded Wagers, StJohn? No need for emails. Mnsr Jacques is known to be an honorable man.
10. Harry/Madasafish - Yes this is very bad. Is it better to put Northern Rock into administration I wonder and sever the contractual obligations with Granite? It appear to me Granite is not a bona fide legal entity - obviously it is not acting as a Charitable Trust as the only beneficiaries appear to be Wall Street bankers! Can the government act and freeze Granite’s trading activities/assets while it is investigated for fraud by the Charities Commision and the police?
I’ve got some Texas projections. McCain and Clinton lead. Interestingly, McCain seems to be extending his lead over Huckabee.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/21/texas-projections/
stjohn & Peter @ 18/23.
On the other hand how about a losing £20M political gamble !!
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/02/21/romney_spent_423m_of_own_money/
24. That may happen yet - see 20.
26 And he can’t even sue his bookmaker.
26. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.
A new CNN/OR match-up poll for Texas -
McCain 52% - Obama 44%.
McCain 55% - Clinton 42%.
Yet another state with a poor Obama/Clinton comparison.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/21/texas.poll/index.html
24
It would appear to me - IF my understanding is correct - that Darling has made the biggest blunder any COE can: write a blank cheque. I suspect as well, Granite will have clauses saying if any of their mortages default, NRK picks up the bill. In fact I’m sure it will have. If so, then I understand why FOI is going to be disallowed.
My view - if I’m correct - is that it could make Black Wednesday’s losses look like a teaparty .
Ah-ha a first! Luxembourgish politics on pb.com I live in Luxembourg so am aware that this country’s pols are very good at picking up euro-jobs - there have been two Commission presidents and Juncker is currently the political head of the 15 member eurogroup. Luxembourg does this because the pols not only speak French,German and English, but they really understand other countries’ political culture. Also, Luxembourg is too small to threaten anyone.
Juncker is definitely interested in the job, which is more than can be said for Blair. Juncker loves nothing more than all night meetings debating the nuts and bolts of EU policy, but I get the impression this would bore the pants off Blair.
Also, the job of president of the quarterly European Council is not all it’s cracked up to be. The job comes with no executive power and no secretariat, and would require someone to jet around Europe brokering deals about agriculture, trade, VAT etc. All very worthy, and all very dull.
Against Juncker is that he is very much pro-integration and would like to grow the post into an executive president - but that would require a treaty change. And I think we’ve had our last EU treaty for a while.
I think Barroso is a good candidate, but then he might fancy another term as Commission president. I’d guess mono-lingual Bertie Ahern has no chance and Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as a Dane, would suffer for not being in the euro. Forget Chirac and Berlosconi
So Juncker is inoffensive, liked by the French and Germans, has impressed as the head of the eurozone, has been on the EU scene since 1982, would be bidable. I’d say 3-1 is decent value.
13- Dems abroad delegates split :
Obama 5 delegates - 2.5 votes
Clinton 4 delegates 2 votes
Dems abroad have 22 delegates but each counts for only a half-vote in the convention.
9 other delegates (5.5 votes) will be elected later at the Dems abroad convention (caucus-like, I guess)
The other 4 delegates (2 votes) are superdelegates.
Has anyone got the link to William Hague in the commons a couple of week back on this topic?
O/T - Lords inflict first defeat on Govt.
Well i think that a Blair Presidency would be good for Britain. In fact the main objection to it seems to be that what is good for Britain in Europe is probably bad for certain strands of the more ideological Eurosceptic cause.
All the way through this EU/Blair piece, I was thinking NO CHANCE. Everything I written in any depth seems to say so. Too devisive etc.
The last bit is the killer. How often is the decision a fudge because noone can agree? The EU? Every time.
Breakfast at Claridges to decide who becomes President. That says it all about the wretched EU really, doesn’t it?
Welcome to the brave new world of pan-European democracy (cue hysterical laughter from offstage).
piechucker @ 32.
PB.com will be covering the Casino South-West by-election in Monte Carlo next month and the following weeks caucus in Cannes. I’ll be ensuring detailed on-the-spot coverage from both venues.
It’s a tough assignment but duty calls.
37 that should read ‘everything I have read…or has been written..’
32. But I think they want a big name President, to get the position more prestige. Although I guess, no big name will be acceptable to all…
My God this Northern Rock thing is really beginning to sound really bad reading that link on the last page.
Can anyone spell out the real consequences of the Govt losing ten of billions of pounds?
43. Two more years with an even lamer duck government with added tax hikes.
42. Election posters with thousands of policemen and nurses saying this is what you could have got if all the money didn’t go on Northern Rock I presume
39 It’s thankless work, but somebody has to do it, Peter.
Think however of poor SeanT, labouring ceaselessly with poor young people in Bankok and Calcutta. His selflessness knows no bounds and puts even your own good work into perspective.
45. Poor sod - the one day there’s a thread on Europe and he’s not here - ho ho.
42. alex. I agree. I don’t really follow this problem at all well and it just seems to get murkier. What I think I understand is that the taxpayer is assuring any debts incurred by Northern Rock. What is not at all clear is whether the size of this risk is either pretty huge or GALACTIC!
46 Mike would never have put it up if he’d been around, Harry.
Honest. He even asked where SeanT so as to be sure the coast was clear.
Yes agree about NR - In simple terms, if I have understood it correctly, if a mortgage that has been pledged to Granite is repaid then the money goes to Granite not Northern Rock -fair enough. The problem comes if the mortgage turns bad, Northern Rock seem to be committed to make it up by providing a new “good” mortgage, or if it cant find any mortgages (and it wont be writing many), then Granite will presumably need cash!
48.
41 - I agree Socrates. Given the Europe-wide mood of euro-scepticism, a low profile but efficient fixer fits the bill. Barroso might be in with a shout because he is seen as relatively econonomically-liberal.
39 - Peter - good for you - unfortunately Luxembourg doesn’t conform to the usual tax haven cliché - there’s no beach and the weather stinks.
I can also give pb.com the heads-up on who will win next year’s Lux general election. It will be Mr Juncker’s CSV, the party that has won every election bar one since 1945.
I don’t think Brown should be as anti-this as everyone suggests. Having Blair stuck in Brussels to be regularly barracked by euro beaurocrats, is not such a bad result.
48
- He’ll be spitting when he gets to his next internet cafe and reads this… we wont hear the end of it for days.
49. Its worse than that - if a mortgage is paid off within a Granite bond then it has to be replaced with another from NR !
The BBC Business section (along with the FT Alphaville Blog) appear to be much more sanguine about Granite:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7256431.stm
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/02/21/11087/national-granite/
Much as I’m tempted to say that the EU and Tony Blair deserve each other (and the alternative in Juncker is even worse) I doubt he’d get it - too pally with the Yanks……
Peter, do you blame me?
49.I don’t know how anyone can understand the sheer implications of this move without all the relevant pieces of information to hand.
As I said on the previous thread, both George Osborne and Vince Cable should be given access to the information.
Am I correct in thinking that the two groups interested in buying NR would have seen all the information and advice?
Perhaps SeanT would be in favour of Blair being Prez. What else would bring the EU into disrepute faster than having TB grinning at us!
32-I think for those very reasons the UK will veto him…
Btw-I once saw Juncker at the head of a Luxembourgeois delegation in Laos. Thye were all sitting at a table quaffing big bottles of Lao beer. I admit I wanted to join them. I also admit I’m starting to sound like SeanT!!
42 in addition to Granite there are two smaller vehicles called Dollarite and Whinstone.
The risk seems to be that if Granite doesn’t continue to receive regular infusions of mortgages from Northern Rock it will be unable to meet its obligations and have to pay all its bondholders in full. Northern Rock (i.e. us) would need to find £6bn to pay Granite in that circumstance. No information on the smaller vehicles.
So it looks like Northern Rock has to remain competitive, giving mortgages to keep cashflow going to keep Granite going. This wasn’t the plan as Darling and Ron explained it. Competitors and the EU will not like a competitive state funded NR going after business, especially in market that isn’t expanding as it was.
This isn’t just bad news for taxpayer as regards funds at risk but is bad news for the North East. £6bn is probably about what we could lose and with a tight public spending round, expensive wars and increasing inflationary pressure its £6bn that would be missed.
Harry [54] No it doesnt - Granite would be happy with the cash from the mortgage - the point is that NR gets no benefit.
57. Yes - hence why they couldn’t pay back all the loans in 3 years. If the govt controlled granite then it could liquidate it and pay the bonds back. They don’t and so can’t. The killer is that the bonds are over 50yrs ! So even good mortgages will drop out and need replenishing.
Nomoskaar!
In many ways Calcutta seems familiar: the English street names, the architecture, the English language. And yet the context is so foreign. The effect is very odd, sometimes even frightening to the Western visitor.
Likewise with the EU - at first glance it has the Parliament and now a President; both familiar concepts to our Anglo-sensibilities. But the context is grotesque.
A grotesque lack of accountability; a perverse process for decision-making and ultimately a haughty disdain for the people.
Yes, the people. Us. Why won’t our weasel leaders just let us have our say? And why do the feeble Liberal Democrats support their quisling manoeuvres?
Still, I must get back to the thriller - another character killed off whilst on the plane! Very therapeutic.
Rod Liddle is late to the party; someone called antifrank made the same point as him here three weeks ago:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/02/02/will-gord-try-to-undermine-tonys-euro-bid/
post 39
So far as betting is concerned, my money would be on “none of the above named”; someone will come up on the rails later on in the process. Look out for a Scandinavian or (perhaps more likely) a central European of impeccable democratic credentials.
56 He’s here
49
Yes
I reckon under forecast normal (i.e at present) economic conditions the possible risks:
Granite mortgage book approx £55Billion.. 1% loss.. £0.6billion
NRK mortgage book £45Billion at 2.5% .. £1.1 Billion
Total loss PER YEAR.. £1.7Billion.. approx £9Billion over 5 yeras.
Double the figures in a recession. £18Billion.
59 - what Juncker has to avoid is being seen in the UK press as the integrationist candidate. This is what happened in 1994 when the Belgian PM Jean-Luc Dehaene was in line for the job of Commission president. John Major spun the line that Dehaene was an agressive euro-integrator and then made great play of vetoing him. Brown may want to pull the same trick.
With Dehaene out of the way they needed an unhappy compromise. And so they picked the aimiable but useless Luxembourg’s Jacques Santer.
66 NR apparently holds £5,5bn at risk if Granite was wound up.
60 dollarite and whinstone are exactly the same as granite but are for commercial mortgages and subprime(i think) rather than prime mortgages
65 Quick, run for it…
30: The differences are within the margin of error
67 - “And so they picked the aimiable but useless Luxembourg’s Jacques Santer.
…and headline-writers everywhere cracked open the champagne………
I am 100% in favour of appointing Tony Blair as president with a huge salary and various flunkies to serve his wife. As that great revolutionary Lenin used to say ‘the worse, the better’.
69. Should imagine the risks on those are even higher then ??
NR.Anatole Kaletsky says its the equvalent of £18 million per job!
Obviously this must be a worst case, over simplification [if it isn't - not sure I want to know!] but it is interesting that this one time cheerleader is so negative.
Re the PMQs on the last thread… it seemed a bit chicken and egg. argument.
Is he c*** because he is depressed or is he depressed because he is c***?
The later.
He would never have been great.
The man’s a number two.
How disappointing, I always thought of SeanT as an Aston Martin kinda guy.
http://toyotaownersclub.com/forums/index.php?showuser=36059
61. I think the issue is that the bond holders that leant money to granite are expecting interest for the next 50 years - hence if a mortgage is repaid then granite need a new one to replace it and keep the cash flow coming.
76 But maybe its a van that has been “pimped to the max”, a Shagmobile.
74 yes but they are much smaller in size. only a few billion in total
70. We could all sneak off to the Upcoming Server Maintenance thread and hope he doesn’t find us.
80 - Indeed… Robert was very quick to put that up to provide a means of escape if required.
80 was it really him or a scary glove puppet?
But why were you on that web site!
64 - you’re probably right antifrank. This market is like those for football managers where only those on the inside really know what’s going on.
Juncker would be an excellent candidate though, and I hope he gets it. A Europe with a stong, consistent line on trade, peacekeeping and carbon would make for a better world.
2/1 does not sound like great value. The usual pattern with these big supranational positions is that prominent, noteworthy candidates are mooted for the job, much discussion follows, then a minor mediocrity winds up being shoe-horned in in an embarrassing political fudge. Wait for the minnows to appear. That’s where the likely value lies.
63 Go and see the largest tree in the world. It is a banyan - and it looks like a small forest, nearly half a kilometre across. Actually, not the most exciting thing you will ever see, but it is in the botanical gardens - and it was the nicest place I saw in Kolkatta.
We’ll throw some logs on the Euro-pyre whilst you’re away.
pore dakhaa hobe
85 Prodi will be available again soon.
Well if it’s not Tony, what other Brits have a chance? Paddy Ashdown? Ken Clarke? Anyone else?
82. If it wasnt him it was a very good impersonation.
87. That would seem like a very likely candidate: big name, well respected, disliked by few, a technocrat and, with all respect to Andrea, from a country that’s not too threatening to the big three.
89 - thank you Socrates
How about Kinnock, a political failure of the first order? Perfect.
92. How about 2 Kinnocks as joint presidents - how fitting ?
91 Ha!
87, 90 - Prodi was widely derided as Commission president. Maybe this would make him an ideal candidate….
93. Maybe Neil’s lad can be given a job too, as some kind of junior Augustus in the non-imperial empire?
91 Brilliant, Aaron! I bought it.
96 Leave me out of it! I don’t want a job in Europe - the commute’s too onerous.
I take it you all didn’t read the signature properly then
99 What have you done. SeanT’s ego is about to go thermonuclear.
99. Very clever Aaron. I did notice the signature but gave it only cursory consideration. As in life generally and betting specifically, we often see only what we expect to see.
Confuscious or what!
99 - very good impersonation Aaron but I wasn’t hoodwinked. Sean would never have limited his bile to just a couple of paragraphs on such a topic. And your text lacked the full force of that unhinged, salivating, swivelling-eyes style we have all grown to admire.
99 withdraw my scary glove puppet comment as it was you
We can’t say whether Blair’s even interested yet, as the terms of the President have yet to be declared.
If it’s an office job, he’ll not care, if it involves jetting around hobnobbing with rich, famous people he’ll be in there like a rat up a drainpipe.
102 - true, I was conscious it was on the brief and bileless side…
104 - there will never be a job description Morris - it is to be made up by the incumbent. Blair’d like the Paris, Berlin and Rome, but I don’t think he could be bothered schmoozing the Estonian prime minister over issues such as e-commerce VAT registration
105 But it was a great impression. I fear SeanT smugness will be unbearable. You failed to insult a leftie too.
167 (previous thread)
Baskerville - I and a number of others on PB.com have made the same mistake as you in misunderstanding the rules governing the “Gordon Brown Weeks” on Spreadfair, not surprisingly really in view of the very misleading title of the bet, but you need to read the following text which appears alongside the prices display:
If Gordon Brown announces his resignation during this period the market will be settled at the time of the next General Election as stated above and not the week of his resignation.
Sort of fairly fundamental to the bet isn’t it?
Having Cherie as Europe’s “first lady” might upset the Royal Families of Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
It would certainly upset me.
108. Bu**er.
105 - But it was brilliant. Please try it again when he’s on pb.com next and we can have a “spot the Sean” competition. We could get Betfair to put up a market
Without SeanT, commenting on the EU loses it’s feeling of risk and the adrenaline that goes with it.
63 et al
Not a patch on the real thing - can’t believe you fell for this!
He missed (along with the entirety of everyone who posts here…does no-one like me?!) the scandal of the EU fraud which makes Conway look like small beer which I posted on the last thread.
http://tinyurl.com/2qsjoo
76 Good spot Simon, but IIRC seanT neither has a car/pickup nor drives.
113 - well yes. you wouldn’t believe it from the press but I reckon the UK has some of the cleanest politicians in Europe. All the more reason for the Brits to get stuck in and sort it out I’d say.
113 Problem is all us Eurosceptics are too used to the smell of sleaze and self indulgence from the European Parliament to be surprised and most Europhiles prefer not to notice, carrying their higher principles like a posy to ward off such inconsequential trifles.
We keep being told we need to board the European Train or be left behind - it’s clear they mean the gravy train.
New Rasmussen daily Presidential tracker -
Obama 46% - Clinton 41%.
McCain 42% - Obama 46%.
McCain 47% - Clinton 43%.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
OT: are both Ohio and Texas voting on 4 March?
Hillary with $7.6M in debt in January!
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8613.html
118. Yes. Along with Rhode Island and Vermont.
120, cheers.
Hopefully everything’ll get sorted out then. Otherwise they’ll be scrapping for even longer.
120 I would imagine he’ll win Vermont. Rhode Island is more questionable.
This story of Euro MPs abusing their expenses… when do we get to find out the exciting details of which party is milking the gravy train most? (I do like mixing my metaphors.)
119 explains some of the articles in the US media recently about small landlords and businesses complaining about unpaid bills from Clinton campaign. Cash flow problems
The key thing here is the rules. If it’s like the head of the European Commission, there has to be unanimity. And in that case, the obvious candidates generally do not get chosen because there’s always someone prepared to veto them. Blair would have little chance - although the exception of Prodi means this rule is not hard and fast. The winner would be someone less well known, who had had less opportunity to upset anyone. Under Commission nomination procedure, it’s a good idea not to be even mentioned as a candidate, if you can avoid it, until objections have been tabled against two or three early proposals and the search begins for a compromise candidate.
I’d want long odds to bet on Blair.
Peter the Punter @ 122.
Clean sweep. Clinton zip from fifteen!
Referring back to Jacques at 30,as the GOP won Texas by 20%,either Democratic candidate shows a swing from GOP to Dem-obviously larger for Obama-I KNOW you can’t do uniform swing across the US,but as it only potentially takes Ohio to tip to deliver the White House to the Democratic Party,as a UK based supporter,I really feel its going to happen -GO-BAMA!!
In an attempt to prevent tremors in the ‘Garden of England’ Iain Dale has decided he won’t be making the earth move and thus will refrain from the odd shake, rattle and roll in the rumpy pumpy department.
What some Conservatives will do to get a safe seat in Kent.
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
128, that story reminded me a little of when Yorkshire got flooded in the summer and some idiot bishop blamed it on gays.
122 - the endorsement of the previous Republican senator for Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee, is quite a big boost for Obama there. He was personally popular (defeated on a very atypical “nice bloke but at the end of the day not quite a Democrat” campaign) and quite a few soft Republicans and independents in the state will follow his lead.
128 Well there are all those earthquakes in San Francisco…
Possible veep?
132 referred to 130.
117 Thanks for an EXCELLENT link-the Rasmussen polling organisation.Closer analysis of Michigan shows an 8% lead for the Dems at present,compared to the 3.6% lead Kerry carried that state by in 2004-I feel although landslide is unlikely,Obama should top 300 ECVs when it comes to it on November 4th-I DO hope Florida can be swung,as thats a lovely big block of 27 ECVs-potentially a nice extension to what could be a very,very happy night for tens of millions of Americans,and for the world as a whole!
129,I’m sure his community psychatric nurse will sonn be round to administer his depot injection:lol::lol:
For those wondering about Northern Rock. I’ve got a couple of research notes for you that may help you with some of the facts;
Brief discussion of Granite (and the other vehicle, Whinstone). from today - relationship with NRK;
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2140104/NRK-Fitch
More detailed discussion of NRK’s future written for debt holders (HSBC)
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2140107/NRK-HSBC
I notice DC has decided to crack down on forced marriages. Good.
However, i am left with a question. How can he do this without creating extremely invasive laws? It’s
hard to register consent in both marriage and sex, and do we want a government that intervenes in the world of romance, even if it is in a benign way?
New SUSA Presidential match-ups. All bad for Clinton in comparison to Obama.
Wisconsin -
McCain 49% - Clinton 42%.
McCain 42% - Obama 52%.
Iowa -
McCain 52% - Clinton 42%.
McCain 41% - Obama 51%.
Virginia -
McCain 48% - Clinton 45%.
McCain 45% - Obama51%.
New York -
McCain 41% - Clinton 52%.
McCain 36% - Obama 57%
137 - forced marriage is already a matter for the civil courts. Government has long intervened in marriage - for example in relation to bigamy (which is illegal if carried out in this country even if all parties give their informed consent) or marriages between parties who are too closely related. Since the nature of forced marriage is that no consent was given, a victim of a forced marriage may feel unable to take advantage of their civil remedy. This seems a sensible but small-scale proposed reform to me.
139. Yeah, you’re right on every count.
Was just trying to make a bit of discussion on a very quiet thread. Is there really nothing interesting happening today?
140 - if the conviction of a serial killer and defeat of the Government in the House of Lords over Northern Rock doesn’t inspire debate, I could set out my theory for calendar reform.
140, well the Lords (which seem to be far better than the Commons quite frequently) have amended the Northern Rock bill to make it subject to Freedom of Information and to have to give regular updates.
If the government want a quick resolution they’ll need to accept the amendments. If they try to change them it’ll take longer.
136 thanks for those reports. very helpful
which thread is the live thread? Think Mike needs to put up another one (Will Tonights Debate Break Hilary’s Firewall or such) to move discussion on to one.
If PtP is about he could start posting on this thread and the server one - that usually moves Mike to start anew.
144 Ted - I’m half expecting a poll this evening. The Telegraph’s February YouGov survey should be out if they are following the normal pattern. Also I’m expecting a London mayoral poll in the next few days and I had thought that we might see something tonight.
I would love to see Blair get that job. He is so discredited in the UK that putting him in a position of authority in the EU can only help the EUrosceptic cause. Every time he appeared on television as President of the EU we would see another jump in the number of people wanting to leave altogether.
Its a great idea.
142. Does anyone know what is going on with the Northern Rock bill? According to the Parliament website, neither House is debating at the moment. Has the Commons yet to consider the Lords’ amendments, or has it already done so?
145 That would be good - what’s your view on change since last time? I’d expect little change as Northern Rock isn’t an issue that really resonates immediately but it’s drowned out things like the lost Dutch criminal data disc which would have otherwise damaged Brown.
147.The HoC is suspended until the HoL sends the bill back over to them. The last time BBC parliament was showing the HoL live they were debating/voting the third reading of the bill I think?
147 - I think they’ve probably broken for dinner.
147.According to BBC parliament channel the HoC will resume its seating at 7.45pm.
149, 150, 151 - Thanks. Let’s see what happens.
Will leave the others chatting about American politics on the other thread. Is anyone following the debate in the HoC just now? It seems to be getting very heated, not helped by Yvette Coopers arrogant and hectoring manner.
New thread - Populus boost for Darling/Brown over Northern Rock