Populus boost for Darling/Brown over Northern Rock
February 21st, 2008
Half the voters support nationalisation
A “quickie” poll by Populus for tomorrow’s Times has some good news for the government over the Northern Rock crisis.
A total of 519 people were interviewed last night with 49% backing nationalisation. The sample supported Darling remaining as Chancellor by 50 to 38 per cent.
But it’s not all plain sailing. 58% blamed the Labour Government for some of the problems while 64% blamed the Bank of England and City authorities. There was most criticism of the management of the firm with 76% attaching blame to them.
The problem with this sort of poll is that it did not contain voting intention questions and my guess is that it wasn’t past vote weighted. So any comparisons with polls that have been adjusted in this way are not worth making. One of the oddities of phone polling is that firms like Populus find a disproportionate number of Labour supporters answering the phone. For years the technique known as past vote weighting has been used to scale this back.
I think we need to see some properly adjusted voting intention figures before we can conclude that Gord and Alistair are off the hook.
Mike Smithson
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519 voters?
pathetic
Is that a good poll?
47% backing a policy that the Govt claims is effectively the only option?
Quite what logic results in someone not supporting nationalisation, but supporting Darling as Chancellor is a bit of a mystery as well!
Obviously a few Tories who are quite enjoying the (political) damage he’s doing!
Good. Darling did not deserve to get in the neck over this.
re 4. Dead right Jonathan - it is dithering boss who should carry the can.
Supporting Nationalisation is also (I think still) the Lib Dem policy, so presumably the 47% include a large number who are anti-Govt by default.
Interesting results. However, I bet the Granite issue hadn’t been raised and publicised before the answers were given.
Also, the small sample size isn’t a plus for the validity of the answers.
I still don’t think Darling will see the next election as Chancellor. If he has any more stress to deal with his eyebrows will turn white.
A few polls over next couple of weeks may give us an indication of the short term impact of Nationalising NR. If Despatches (Yesterday Channel 4) are right with their Doomsday predictions in regard to the banking sector, the housing market and specifically in relation to Northern Rock then the main impact on the polls may take some months to come through.
I think your qualifications are right but I don’t think this has been as bad for Darling as it could have been. I just watched the debate from Monday and Darling handled it pretty well. Vince helped him a lot to be fair, but overall Osborne’s position seemed pretty weak and crucially the Conservative backbenchers were decidedly quiet.
The sample numbers are too small to draw any conlussions?
6, the Lib Dems are anti-government?:p
8, I missed that Dispatches for some reason. What were its predictions for the housing market?
12. Dramatic fall with a lot of forced sales in the UK and no recovery for several years. This partly stemming from fresh problems for the Banks banks curtailing their lending.
Seems about right.
It seems to me that a lot of politicians and political thinkers are fighting the old battles. Voters are less dogmatic about left and right, the market and state planning. Voters as well as politicians have got used to political cross dressing and pick ‘n’ mix policies.
Mike @ 5, at what level does statesmanlike weighing up of options and waiting for all the facts, give way to dithering? Could you answer in the abstract?
#12 You can catch that Dispatches on 4OD - available for free download/streaming for 30 days.
Interesting poll. Clearly Who is to blame” is quite a vague question. The management of NR got them in trouble, so they are to blame for that, but more interesting would be to ask how the issue has been handled.
I don’t blame NuLab for the run on NR, but Darling and Brown have handled it very badly, seemingly with an eye to a general election which was crass and damaging.
Also how many of us fully understand all the ins and outs of it? A small minority i’d reckon. This will run and run, we might see a different poll in 6 months, a year.
13, if accurate that would not bode well for the People’s Bank.
I thought lack of supply and continuing high demand would ensure a more gentle fall. Then again, I’m not an estate agent.
Since it is the City that seem to be taking aim at Darling, did they have the day off or did they phone them at their desks?
The lack of a democratic mandate in the EU:
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10727874
Darling is a poor puppet dancing on Brown’s strings.
We should pity him.
Every time he is on tv, you can see it in his eyes…“Help Me! Help Me! He Keeps me prisoner. He harms me. HEELP!”
New Rasmussen Texas poll -
Clinton 47% - Obama 44%.
Clinton lead down from 16% last week!!
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary
Why is nobody talking about the elephant in the room? I mean the illegal declaration of independence by Kosovo. The British Embassy in Belgrade has come under attack. What do Dithering Dave and William Vague have to say on the matter?
20. He even looks like a thunderbird.
The reason for the support is simple. The public have supported this bank with their money, so they want to get the money back plus profits. It is only if that doesn’t happen that the government will be in trouble.
24, but three quarters of the exposure is for loans. Only £24bn or so is for depositor guarantees.
BTW can anyone see how the Govt is going to have any option but to give in on the Freedom of Information amendments? There’s absolutely no reason for the Lords to back down, and the Govt desperately need their bill.
meritocrap @ 22.
It’s disgraceful !!!
There’s an elephant in the Ambassador’s drawing room. Well, the roses in the Embassy garden will be wonderful this year.
25 - I think TTT means taxpayer’s money
22: Kosowhat
22 “The British Embassy in Belgrade has come under attack. What do Dithering Dave and William Vague have to say on the matter?
They are not in Government but they said, “Labour has cut Defence during Wartime leaving Britain unable to defend its people and Labour must resign”.
28, oops. Truly, my sleepiness has made me turn into Banana-man.
22 - Have the Govt made a Commons statement on the matter?
28. 31
Glad we cleared that up
Labour = total meltdown
32 “Have the Govt made a Commons statement on the matter”
Yes. Swiss Tony said “Err Kosowhat?”
Gordon Brown said “Defence Cuts during Wartime is not Treason designed to help the enemy. Indeed, it will lead to a smaller more lethal Army”
Whispers to labour mps “To British soldiers, ha, ha”
I think Gordon Brown also said “The Military are second in line to be taken down a peg after the Monarchy”
“Och aye, the noo…I’m a canny scot…I’m sooo cleverrr”
5. The lions share of blame should actually fall on the northern rock board.
22. Which law does it supposedly break?
#26 I think the proposed ammendment for an immediate audit (not conducted by PwC!), will be more of an issue for the Government.
What amazes me is 24% don’t blame the Northern Rock management.
39 “What amazes me is 24% don’t blame the Northern Rock management”
That, is Labour’s core vote.
Commons rejects Lords amendment 1.
22 - The illegality of the declaration is dubious. In any event, most of the West have recognised the new state (and, indeed, the UK was formally first to acknowledge its existence, with the US and France close on our heels). There’s nothing Britain can reasonably do to calm Serb anger, so I’m not sure exactly what either the government or the opposition should be proposing. In fact, it would be wiser if more politicos could learn to shut up when we can do nothing.
39 - Perhaps it’s “nice work if you can get it” syndrome. They haven’t exactly done badly for themselves…
Even though it was messy, most people probably think there wasn’t much else that could be done.
There is probably also a belief, that Building Societies should have remained exactly that: Banks! who do they think they’re kidding.
3. Many a true word is spoken in jest.
Asked ‘Should he resign?
a] yes
b] no
c] not..just yet
Hope McCain doesn’t become President, it’ll reallu upset Seant
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/02/john-mccain—t.html
42. “I’m not sure exactly what either the government or the opposition should be proposing.”
That’s my point - if Cameron is Prime Minister-material he should be able to make instant judgements on events, not wait for his script-writers to come up with something a week later.
Lords amendments 2 and 3 also rejected. Lords amendments 4-8 accepted by acclamation.
f Brown is Prime Minister-material he should be able to make instant judgements on events, not wait for Cameron to come up with something.
42. To my mind the stupidity of it is keeping the Serbian north of the province in the new state - why not just put them back into Serbia?
46. That link doesn’t work.
51
Sorry! don’t know why ,its the Times Red Box, McCain is pro-European.
Government majorities of 110 and 97 on the first two votes to reject the Lords amendments, though with over 200 MPs missing. I’d The Lords may fold in the end as their majorities were slender (30ish). The Opposition have already folded on the 3rd issue (i.e. Commons unanimous in rejecting the Lords.
On topic, I think that’s not a bad poll result even allowing for Mike’s caveats, given the tendency of the public to take every opportunity to criticise politicians. The Tories have IMO slightly misplayed this - hard to combine foaming indignation and resignation calls with a lack of distinctive alternatives.
Who ate all the pies?? … or in the Clinton Campaign case, the doughnuts - all $1300 of them !
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8619.html
50. And why not for the Serb bit of Bosnia too? It’s no good the govt. blithely saying “this doesn’t set a precedent” - of course it flipping well does!
53 - what were the amendments that the Govt “folded” on?
42 Cameron should be able to make instant decisions ….with billions of pounds at stake, without seeing the books, let alone having access to oddles of expensive/specialist advice that the Govt has obtained!
That is exactly the sort of posturing we do not want in a PM.
Blair told Bush he would go into Iraq before the case had been made.
That turned out well.
Sorry 57 refers to 47
47 - But there’s no need for him to be making an instant judgement here. Even if he were PM, one doesn’t make decisions and policy by instant pronouncement, but in private - particularly in a case like this, where the diplomatic (and even the intelligence) context is vital, and Britain is far from the only country singled out.
One for Sean Fear
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/hampshire/7256161.stm
59. But Milliband has said, for good or ill, that HMG recognizes Kosovo - but Cameron doesn’t appear to have an opinion. I mean, it’s been on the cards for weeks.
60 - A rather misleading article, don’t you think?
BTW is having four vacant seats at once a record?
61 - Maybe he supports the Govt position?
O/T PJ - wrt your post on the previous thread, has Iain Dale now actually been selected for a Kent constituency? I recall reading that he was interested in Ann Widdecombe’s seat, if you’ll pardon the expression!
64 - no chance!
64
Its already gone. To a black female candidate, there was some kerfuffle ‘cos she’d once been a member of the Labour Party.
56: They were all Government amendments. It’s generally thought that the Lords will not press their opposition further.
In reply to your earlier query, alex - the argument for not applying FoI to NR is that it’s a commercial enterprise, and the FoI is not normally applied there - you can’t write to tesco and ask them for a copy of their business plan and sales figures broken down by branch. The FoI does have a clause allowing people to refuse on grounds of commercial confidentiality, though, so in practice the impact would be negligible either way.
60. Lib Dems colluding with Labour, yet again.
Peter from Putney @ 64.
No. He lives in Kent and would dearly love a local constituency. Iain failed to make the shortlist for Ann’s seat.
Labour may have dogded a bullet as Benedict Brogan suggested yesterday(he said “got away with it today”,) if I remember correctly), but the bullet didn’t miss its target its ricocheting around, its only a matter of time before it hits a target in the bunker. Northen Rock is not over by a long chalk, its about as toxic as you can get. As for the poll, I wouldn’t bet 5p on the strength of it.
Last week Gordon Brown’s pet monkey boy Swiss Tony committed Britain’s last reserves to EU Force in Kosovo - leaving Britain’s “smaller more lethal military” even more stretched.
The EU Force is there ‘keeping the peace’.
But the European Union can not agree a common position on Kosovo.
Does the EU know why British soldiers are in Kosovo?
62. No, the BBC can’t even cut and paste properly from Southampton Council’s website! It’s 18 each for Labour and Conservative.
65 - In which sense?
61 - It’s not unusual for any leader to take a back seat on foreign policy as long as it’s reasonably unctroversial - indeed, it’s default position. There’s no great public outcry one way or another. Most of the West is united on this, so any policy reaction or decision is likely to be co-ordinated with the US and the major EU powers. I just don’t see why Cameron (or anyone else) would need to comment at this point.
68
Seeing as it was technically NOC I’m amazed a deal hadn’t been done anyway.
67. NR is ‘a commercial enterprise’
Only if you believe state-controlled firms propped up with huge subsidies are ‘commercial enterprises’. Your trot roots are showing again Nick.
Would be interesting to see the same poll in 12 months time when the effects of nationalisation,resulting mortgage casualties,job losses and cost to the taxpayer are clearer.
66 Oh yep, i remember now, about a month ago and very soon indeed after having been a Labour party council applicant iirc.
67.But Tesco don’t ask me as a taxpayer to write blank cheques and honour their debts without the freedom to query it?
57. Is this Northen rock?
Which, Brown dithered over for months? yet Cameron and Osbourne failed to come to a decision over themselves?
Or is it Kosovo which has been in the offing for years?
I think “dithering dave” may be a nickname, Cameorn will earn. I seem to remember him saying about if conservatives played “punch and judy politics” their comments would come back to haunt them.
54.
“$3.8 million on messaging guru Mark Penn”
not getting value for money there
79. Are you Roger in disguise?
Wow, those really are some bags under Gordon’s eyes in Mike’s pic above.
81. Reds under the beds, hey?
81 Roger’s latest distraction tactic is spam the threads with demands for Cameron to tell Brown what to do.
So Labour’s invasion immigration policy was Camerons’s fault. Who knew?
67 - I don’t think i asked for an explanation, merely if the Govt would be forced to back down if the Lords stood firm.
This phrase about Northern Rock being a “commercial enterprise” is going to cause the Govt a lot of problems me thinks.
All Labour and LD supporters = LOL
What a vacuous poll, no criticisms to Mike S for choosing it as a thread but what light does it shed?
Without a doubt the Northern Rock debacle is set to run and run, no one knows the facts except the Government and the potential buyers that walked away; which is enough to set alarm bells ringing, lets hope the FOI clause at least is met, so we can ‘learn from past mistakes and move on’
Do feel sorry for Darling though, the guy is a decent sort but unfortunately a ventriloquist dummy with the PM’s hand shoved right up his fundament.
73. Most of the West is united on the Lisbon treaty so I guess that’s not controversial either.
A reminder for insomniacs that the latest Clinton/Obama debate takes place in Austin Texas from 1am GMT, live on CNN.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/debates/
NRock wasnt a ‘commercial’ enterprise before, that why it went bust!
88 - I don’t particularly recall George W. Bush enthusiasticallly endorsing the Treaty….
More seriously, the clear controversy behind the Treaty is that there are divisions in public opinion in more than one EU country. This doesn’t apply here. No-one cares about Kosovo at the moment, and they’re unlikely to unless we’re faced with a return to the 1990s.
79. Troll Alert.
Just watch out for the next Northern Rock,and here it comes.
The 5/2 on the Chacellor to be out of office by the year end is very attractive Mike.
21 February 2008
Breaking News
A&L to scale back mortgage offering
Alliance & Leicester (A&L) is retreating from the mortgage market after revealing it had suffered £185m losses in the wake of the credit crunch, knocking 30% off last year’s profits.
Following the news of the losses, shares slumped to a record low of 428p yesterday and were 472p at the time of going to press.
The problems have forced the bank to cut back its lending, with Chris Rhodes, acting finance director, revealing A&L would concentrate on keeping its existing customers during the coming year rather than seek out new borrowers by offering market-leading mortgage rates.
In yesterday’s trading statement, Rhodes commented: “We expect net new mortgage lending to be negative this year. We expect to concentrate on customer retention.”
Danny Clarke, equity analyst at Shore Capital, said A&L was effectively pulling out of the mortgage market as it shifted its focus towards its funding. He added: “It is another example of dislocation in the market. I think it is probably the correct strategy. As a consequence of protecting what they have, A&L’s mortgage books will contract as they change focus. They are dependant on the wholesale markets and will not be as active as they have been.”
Anyway it is surely inaccurate to describe Northern Rock as a ‘commercial enterprise’. The purpose of a commercial enterprise is to make and maximise profits. The purpose of NR at present is to reach a position where it can be returned to private ownership.
89. PJ. Well I’m an Obamaniac, a McCainiac and now I’m an Insomniac. (At one time I was a Crudite!)
85.”This phrase about Northern Rock being a “commercial enterprise” is going to cause the Govt a lot of problems me thinks.”
I await the EU verdict on this.
I think that this emergency bill, rushed through with barely a glance to Parliamentary scrutiny will be an unmitigated disaster. But not to worry, its only taxpayers money and that does not seem to rate higher than political expediency with this government!
96 - eh? Its shares have risen 10% in a day? Crisis time!
97.Eh!
93 I remember reading in its interim Report last year that the mighty Halifax’s share of the mortgage market had declined from 18% to 11%, compared with the previous reporting period and thinking to myself wow, there must be some pretty aggressive lending out there and so it proved.
Middlesborough LDs wander off.
http://tinyurl.com/33l76j
To go from 5 LD councillors to 1 through defections must be some kind of a record.
“…..implosion of the council’s Liberal Democrat Group last May.”
Seems the latest defector just felt lonely and needed a hug.
99. And the key point is that the splurge of lending was financed by securitisation, a funding source now effectively unusable. The alternatives are expensive, if they can be tapped at all - hence the move by A&L to shrink its exposures, a move that will be followed by other lenders which have grown their mortgage books using the same approach. It means that mortgage lending is going to shrink and stay subdued for some time.
94: wouldn’t you say that running it as a commercial enterprise was the best way to get to the point that private buyers want to take it over at a reasonably price? Running it as some sort of charitable endeavour, deferring to other banks and offering worse mortgage deals, would not get anywhere.
90: it was an *unsuccessful* commercial enteprise.
Labour’s approach to finance reminds me of Robert Maxwell. Remember how he cut the price of the Mirror and his London daily. At the time it caused huge problems for competitors trying to compete.
It was only after we found out what he was up to. And so it will be with Northern Rock.
101 It also means that the more prudent lenders, like the Halifax, are in a position to widen their margins considerably - without wishing to sound too much like Roger, Heaven forbid, buy HBOS imho. Do your own research, etc. and all the other usual disclaimers apply, naturally!
Disclosure - I hold HBOS shares.
Two new ABC News/Washington Post Polls -
Texas -
Clinton 48% - Obama 47%.
Ohio -
Clinton 50% - Obama 43%.
103 correct. the reason Rock couldnt get finance was that the money markets knew how bad the mortgage book was and didnt want to know. the govt has bought the worst mortgage book on the street and will get hosed by defaults. dont forget those 125% mortgages are now 145% mortgages given the fall in house prices.
102. If you are serious about ‘running it as a commercial enterprise’, then you are going to have to get it to the point where it no longer requires massive liquidity support from the BoE. That means slashing the mortgage book, selling assets, and shedding thousands of jobs.
In other words, all the things that should have been done months ago but your government tried to avoid for short-term political reasons.
How’s the mood among NE Labour MPs now Nick? Are they looking forward to the benefits of public ownership, or rather the government running NR ‘as a commercial enterprise’?
Trade secrets are exempt under Freedom Of Information. Even though Public Interest is high, I doubt it is high enough to overrule a fundamental exemption in the act. I’m sure the lawyers will squabble it out though.
108, Why do you call yourself ‘The Tory Troll’
Good poll for Labour over this - very much the mood I’ve detected on the streets. Neutrals on here should take note that one of the problems with pbcom is that posters are not weighted on either voting intentions or past voting, and so if a ‘mood’ appears on here it may bear little relation to national views. Some of the most strident voices are to the right of centre, but they’re not necessarily capturing where the country is at. And when you’re betting, that can matter …
110. astroturf alert
110: ‘…very much the mood I’ve detected on the streets.’
So you wander the streets asking people what they think about Alistair Darling. Don’t you get some funny looks?
106) “dont forget those 125% mortgages are now 145% mortgages given the fall in house prices.”
What % price decline did you put in your calculator there and over whattime period? House prices are up this year over last. Many parts of London are up 20-30% Y/Y - think you need to show your working.
109. 111
Accusing other posters of being trolls, astroturfers or sockpuppets is an easy way of dismissing their arguments. If you think they’re wrong just argue it out. Or ignore them.
113 if a house sold in the past 18 months at the retail price is now sold at auction after being taken back by the bank i promise you the loss is at leat 20%. forced sales are not made at the ‘fantasy’ estate agent market price
Just to confirm: the Lords has voted to accepted the Government’s position on all the amendments.
harry at 107 - A civil question deserves a civil answer! I think the general feeling is that it’s been a difficult business which now has a reasonable chance of turning out OK, and that at the end of the process the Government is in a more convincing position than the Conservatives. To be fair we also think the LibDems have come well out of it - there’s a case for saying Cable was wrong to press for instant action, but he certainly got to what turned out to be the right decision first. It could of course easily go wrong - nobody knows for sure either way - but in retrospect doing rthe deal vthat the private bidders were offering looks pretty unattractive by comparison.
FORECAST…
Con take control everywhere…….
112. Yes so I usually find it best to leave the Conservative rosette at home
111. Namecall alert. Person doesn’t like post … select playground namecall. Beats debating any day.
110. What total drivel. I have not spoken to one person in the last week (including probably close to 100 people), who think that nationalisation is anything other than catastrophe waiting to happen. These include Bankers, treasury experts, Corproate tax advisers, financial services guys, and accountants. Not one! Brown and Darling are held in contempt in the city.
The majority of view of financial professionals is that Brown and Darling were right to stop the run but at that point the mortgage books should have been closed and the company put into administration and run-off.
Everything Brown and Darling have done since then is purely politcial and a gamble with our money. Anatole in thw Times puts it more articulately than me but read him if you want a true understanding of what anyone with half a brain cell and no political agenda thinks.
115) You’re not factoring in any house price inflation at all then are you? You seem to be basing it on a simultaneous house purchase and default - which is fiction.
119. Apologies for typos..I am pants at using a b’berry.
120 try selling your house tomorrow at auction and see if it makes the price the estate agent tells you its worth. you are on cloud cuckoo land if you think the property market is able to withstand any amount of forced sales at current prices.
ruth kelly showing the ignorance of labour about Rock currently on QT. she has no idea about the business, about the market or the reasons why it went bust.
contempt in the city. Pah. Its the city and the need for a fast buck that caused much of this problem in the first place. They have less credability than the government.
122) What do you suppose will drive these “forced sales”? The UK economy is fairly robust.
Asking prices in the UK in January were up over 3% vs December - doesn’t seem like the UK market is feeling particularly scared…
First by-election of the night in, Corby Oakley Vale is a Conservative hold. No figures as yet.
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=1883
119. JH, Anatole is rather like Dennis Healey. Endearing, but wrong just about whenever he says anything on just about everything.
The poll is a serious one and effectively (extrapolating) shows Labour have a 10%+ lead over the Tories on their handling of NR. They did well, and did right. And that’s what the majority of people think.
123 Yes - Question Time the funniest I have seen for a long time - Kelly hilariously out of her depth, utterly clueless. Delusional audience members, and a fantastically antediluvian union leader as a bonus…
Will the normal accounting standards apply to Northern Rock, now it is nationalised? If there do need to be write-offs and provisions for loan defaults, how soon will they be reflected in the Accounts? I assume if they want to return it to the private sector they will need to disclose results in a manner comparable to other private sector companies. However, the temptation to restrict the flow of information, at least until after the election, must be great.
127. sinking to Gabble-esque depths now
121. Basic economics still holds firm. Regardless of the alleged hype re. empty homes, there are still too many people in this country = too many people chasing too few goods, hence the housing market remains reasonably robust.
116 IIRC while the Conservatives opposed the Government they did undertake not to block the Bill so it isn’t surprising is it?
On the poll - share Mike’s views on polls unweighted by past vote or voting intention and add a phone sample of only 519 and its more of a rough guide. 48% supporting to 40% opposing nationalisation isn’t an overwhelming vote of confidence considering the voluble support from the LDs to this policy. However Cameron/Osborne’s Monday media splurge doesn’t appear to have been as effective as they hoped, though the relatively close result for/against shows it wasn’t a failure either.
Political Capital - what will drive the forced sales is people coming to the end of a fixed rate deal at 6%, with a mortgage of 125% of the value of their property, and finding that no other lender will give them the same deal.
So they have to stay with Northern Rock. Secured portion goes to 7.5%, unsecured goes to 15% - total payment rises from (say 180k mortgage) £900 a month to £1350 a month.
You want a leading indicator of where the economy’s going? Read the people asking for advice on the Moneysavingexpert.com Housebuying and Mortgages messageboards.
Summer ‘05: I have lots of spare money, rates are low, what’s the biggest mortage I can get?
Summer ‘06: Wow, my house has gone up by so much, how can I release the equity and buy a new build flat to rent out?
Summer ‘07: I’m worried about my mortgage rate resetting, I don’t think I’ll be able to afford the new payments, what can I do?
Winter ‘08: Help, I need to renew my mortgage and no lender will touch me, and now I’m being repossessed.
123.
IMHO Vince Cable gave an excellent showing on Question Time.
But then I would say that wouldn’t I????
132. Given that the only real alternative to nationalisation is administration or liquidation - which would appear to the average voter as nuclear options involving mass job losses - it’s surprising that only 48% favour nationalisation.
Hence I don’t think this poll result tells you very much really. A better question might have been whether the public approved of the government’s handling of NR to date.
Richard: Basic economics requires that ‘demand’ is defined as demand which people have the ability to express. If house prices were a factor of what people would like their living arrangements to be with money no object, plenty of places in the country would have free houses.
Aspirational demand only sustains house prices if people can express that demand using money. Knock out the availabilty of credit to amateur buy-to-let purchasers, to those who don’t have at least a small deposit, and to those who want to borrow five or more times their income, and you find current prices unsustainable, however many sardines are in the tin.
Then you’re in an expectation / credit tightening spiral up to the point where housing offers a cash investment buyer a competitive return on their investment. That’s about 30% from here, say prices down 20%, rents up 10.
134. But wasn’t Cable being a bit dishonest with the audience, claiming that nationalisation would give NR a future in the NE? He must know that is unlikely to prove to be the case.
Corby Oakley Vale result is Con 405, Lab 267, LD 140. Decent swing to Conservative from May on a lower turnout.
131 Richard, not too sure about that. Over-crowded islands like Japan and Taiwan have suffered lengthy and severe drops in house prices in fairly recent times. If prices do look like they are dropping why wouldn’t people prefer to rent and wait for the market to fall still further, thus creating a vicious circle ( vicious if you are a house owner, that is).
133)
*125% Mortgages are a very small percentage of total mortgages.
*House prices have gone up considerably in the UK year after year - very few borrowers @ 100% are in negative equity.
*BOE is busy cutting IRs which will have a knock on effect on rates. One year GBP Libor has plummeted since its peak in November last year.
Yes, there are always people who stretch themselves beyond their means. But the housing market remains tight in the UK. 20% discounted properties as you predict will be snapped up.. loads of cash around still.
Thoughtb Ruth Kelly pretty good myself.She understands the subject. The union guy was a complete drongo though
Can somebody give me the link to tonite’s debate on CNN? Somehow I never seem to find it when I try Googling.
Thanks
Completely comical on Question Time to see people suggesting protecting employees jobs at Northern Rock should be a key consideration.
There are approx 6,000 jobs at Northern Rock - so you could give every employee £1 million at a cost of only £6 billion!
The idea of the government taking on liabilities of £110 billion even if it is partially to protect the jobs is totally absurd.
138 brilliant for Con
We have won the GE!
30% of all new mortgages issued by Northern Rock in the last two years were for more than 100% of the valuation of the property on which they were secured.
House prices as of now are only about 4% higher than they were this time last year, and falling. That doesn’t take into account the ‘auction discount’ in the event of repossession.
Trolly comment here…. but Alan Duncan is doing a fab job on QT.
Tories take N East!!!!!
141. If you really think Kelly showed any understanding of the subject whatever then you clearly have no understanding of it.
146.Agreed!
Kelly…. rubbish.
She will be next Chancellor!
More on Northern Rock’s ‘high quality loan book’
http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid=NEWS&articlekey=9081&cat=44-0-0
140 Much housing demand is driven by people moving rather than new entrants into the market and house prices are to that extent supported and driven up by sentiment. If people believe that they will get a home at a better price by waiting there is no driving need to move or trade up/down demand falls. If people believe that prices will fall they will hold back for fear of negative equity.
Don’t think we’ve reached that stage but buyers are much more cautious as are lenders. IMHO I think balance is on slowing of price growth rather than price falls but the likelihood of downside is a lot higher than it was.
That Corby result is excellent for the Tories.
Labour holds princes ward in ?marginal? Dartford, vote shares look very similar to last time (Lab 50, Tory 30, EngDem 17, LD 2, UKIP 2) though hard to be precise as last time there were 3 Lab/Tory candidates and one each from EngDems and UKIP.
146 - Con gain whole of N England!!!
This Week now: Peter Hitchens to explain why Cameron’s Conservatives will not win the next election.
Oh yes all you lefties.. abject incompetents like McSporran and the Magpie know much better how to run a bank than..well people who have run banks all their lives. 6000 jobs is nothing compared to the jobs that will be lost if NR goes seruiously wrong…It is ludicrous to suggets otherwise..bad for the 6000, bad for teh shareholders but thats business..there are 56m other citizens who need consideration….
I honestly dont believe I have read and heard so much nonsense spoken in s short a period of time as I have heard from lefties (including Labdemers) over NR.
Nationalisation is an Armageddon solution..its a punt using taxpayers money as an ante in some wild hope that everything will just turn out Ok in the worst finacial and banking climate we have seen for years. It was a political short term decision not to sell it or liquidate in the autumn and its a purely short term political solution to nationalise it now.
I have no sypmathy for the shareholders or director either..it was a crap business model and it deserved to go the wall..the fact its been kept going as a huge millstone around all our necks is outrageous. I almost want it to all go wrong just to show what total imbeciles this government really are. However if it does we will all be suffering so I am left in the ludicrous position of joing the lefties wild hope that McSporran gets lucky.
Wow, Peter Hitchins having a right dig at both parties on This Week
150) Repos are not directly linked to book quality. NRK in February was still desperate for cash - hence more repos.
Peter Hitchens on This Week: “the Tory lead is just not enough, and it’s silly to pretend it is. The country is full of people who’d rather tadoori their grandmothers than vote Tory again. It looks to me the Tories are going to lose the next election…and the one after that….and the one after that….and the one after that…”
A general reflection before I hit the hay…I can perfectly well see a possible scenario with a narrow Tory win at the GE, consisting of Labour sticking at 34-36% and the Tories getting say 38-39% on a ‘let’s try the other lot’ mood. But I think Tory partisans here and elsewhere are deluding themselves when they shout “Labour’s Black Wednesday” and “now they’ll really melt down” every time the Government hits trouble. We can all agree there have been lots of problems, and the Labour vote is drifting up and down in the 31-35 range. But if none of the things we’ve seen, including Iraq and all that followed from it, have reduced the Labour vote further, how likely is it that something else will?
The open question, to my mind, is whether the Tories come to be seen as a fresh and inviting alternative. If so, they’ve got a decent chance; if not, probably not - it doesn’t take much of a recovery for Labour to be back in contention. And the OTT mock outrage we’ve seen from Cameron and Osborne this week has probably set the project slightly back.
155. 157.So what..? What possible relevance to anything does Peter Hitchens have…
Vote share changes in Dartford:
Lab 50.2 (+10.1%)
Con 29.5 (+6.6%)
ED 16.8 (-5.8%)
UKIP 1.6 (-12.7%)
LD 1.9 (+1.9%)
Good result for Labour, fair for the Conservatives and OK for the English Democrats in a 1-vacancy election. The less said about the other two the better…
Erm, you can’t repossess people if they aren’t in arrears! Assuredly there is a relationship between the quality of your lending and the number of people whose houses you have to take off them because they can’t afford to pay you back.
162 We’d better check Ave it 08’s surgical support before he reacts to that LD vote in Dartford. And we may have to rush in emergency supplies of LOL…
re 155 Gabble we know that they haven’t a hope. But they will probably end up the largest party.
re 160 and Nick P you don’t see anything wrong with a “narrow Tory win” on your surmise when perhaps 1.3 million more people will have voted for the Tories than your lot?
165 Run that one by me again - in what sense is the party with the most seats after the next election not the “winner”? David Cameron would not be the one resigning as leader of his party.
Camden Fortune Green was an easy LibDem hold with 51.5% of the vote , this ward is in the new Hampstead and Highgate constituency .
Full result LibDem 1206 Con 551 Lab 405 Green 178
2006 LibDem 1446/1187/1137 Con 667/608/576 Lab 580/545/402 Green 354/305/291
re 167 nor might Gordon Brown - winning an election usually means forming a majority government.
167. Having marginally more seats does not give you a ‘working’ majority, i.e you cannot push through your legislation if the other two parties vote against you (as they will). In that situation it would be a hung parliament and the Tories (or Labour) would need to form a coalition with the lib dems.
RE This Week.
Michael Portillo:
“Mao was responsible for the deaths of between 30 million and 60 million people”
Diane Abbot:
“On balance, though he did more good then bad”
rofl… One wonders how you balance out 60 million deaths, it might be an interesting conversation at the Pearly Gates.
171 The SNP seem to be doing OK in Scotland.
Here’s the great flaw in the arguement by people like Peter Hitchens as to why the Tories are not going to win the next election.
They say that the Tories are not far enough ahead. And for proof of this, they cite the numbers that Tony Blair was polling in the mid-90’s, like Lab - 50% Con- 25% or something like that. But what they fail to point out is that Labour in the mid 90’s was on course for a 180 seat majority, and the Tories were going to be almost completely wiped out. Now, the Tories don’t need to win with a record landslide majority to win the next election. They just need to win with enough seats, to form any majority over say 20 seat’s (anything less than 20 would be a poisened chalice) So, comparing now to the mid 90’s is like comparing apples to oranges.
Similarly, the arguement that in the 80’s, Labour has better leads over Mrs Thacter mid term, but still went on to lose doesn’t work, either. At the time, Labour was being led by a deeply unpopular leader in the form of Neil Kinnock - Theres no evidence that David Cameron is anywhere nearly as unpopular as Kinnock. More over, Mrs Thatcher in 1987 and John Major in 1992, were not the clear vote losers that Gordon Brown is/will be.
All elections are differant. In a way, its a bit like using pattern matching in the weather. Say somebody thinks that because this February has been unusually sunny, that means we’re going to have a hot summer, based in past sunny Feb’s leading to hot summer. Well, thats OK, statisically a hot summer may be more likely, but that doesn’t mean anything, because weather/climate is, by nature, chaotic and it has no memory. Politics is very similar. Each election is unique in itself. Each scenario is unique in itself. In so-far as there is an observable pattern, from which we could draw conclussions as to how the 2009/2020 election will play out, I would actually equate the situation much more to a 1970’s, pre Thatcher/Blair type scenario, where both parties are in with a shout, and the situation may be too close to call right down to election night. But to say that the Tories cannot win the next election is absurd and goes against the avaliable evidence.
Clinton’s superdelegate lead melting like snow - now 68 compared to 96 a couple of weeks ago…
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
Thought QT was a bit dull. Cable has had more brilliant days.
BBC commentary very favourable to LDs at the moment… as David Steel said in Llandudno (?) in 1982 (?) “Go back to your…”
Something else I do not understand: why does Northern Rock need to be exempt from the freedom of information act whilst other ‘commercial’ operations owned by the government do not?
Rod
Do you have an internet link address for the CNN show tonite for the Obama/Clinton debate?
177 - I think the Post Office and Tote are also exempt. But I agree it does look dodgy. The PO and Tote do not gamble with my money.
SBS On the radio today (can’t remember when or where as I was up to my neck in wiring and gagetry most of the day) someone said the PO and Tote were not exempt as the normal commercial confidentiality provision applied as it did to any other commercial operation or company.
I wonder if anyone has chapter and verse?