Is it premature to say “It’s all over - Barack’s won?”
February 23rd, 2008
Will this be the shot we’ll be seeing on January 20th 2009?
A couple of weeks ago Madame Tussauds produced the above display showing a wax life-size model of Barack Obama in a mocked up Oval Office. Maybe it’s a bit premature to feature this and even if he gets the nomination he still has John McCain to beat. But there’s a list of good news stories for the young senator this morning
White House race betting is here.
REMINDER: Politicalbetting.com will be unavailable from about 2am Sunday night till sometime (hopefully) before dawn. Thanks for your patience, Robert
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Let’s face it - Obama has the nomination.
And almost certainly, the White House too. McCain is getting into a World of Pain over his indignant claim Thursday that he did not meet with Mr. Paxson before McCain sent two controversial letters lobbying the FCC - even though in a sworn affidavit five years ago, he confirmed that he had. Now Paxson has weighed and confirmed they did meet:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202634.html?hpid=topnews
An article which has a fine picture of McCains velociraptor of a wife - and contains this gem from McCain’s lawyer:
“We understood that he [McCain] did not speak directly with him [Paxson]. Now it appears he did speak to him. What is the difference?”
Er - how about “the truth”? Imagine if in court your lawyer said “I understood my client didn’ do the bank job. Now it appears he did. What is the difference?” What a prize prat. If McCain is surrounding himself with jokers like that, then he is sunk. Without. Trace.
Oh, and McCain’s Republican buddy and backer from Arizona, Congressman Rick Renzi? He didn’t have such a good day either: indicted on 35 counts including conspiracy, money laundering and embezzlement.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022203118.html?hpid=topnews
It all links McCain with the grubby lobbyist-infested Washington from which Obama is pledging to be a wind of change.
Which is perhaps Obama’s greatest foe in November. That umpty-billion dollar a year lobby group might have been keeping its powder dry - but be prepared to release damaging or embarrassing stories of any past involvements Obama may have had with them, to feed into the “all politicians are the same - nose in the trough…” line. Which, relatively, hurts Obama’s “change” message far more.
That waxwork looks terrible. The complexion is off , his face doesn’t quite look the right shape and he looks cross-eyed!
Oh, and on the links between McCain and Renzi, CBS News has unearhed this fine glimpse into McCain’s judgment - a campaign message McCain recorded for Renzi’s re-election campaign in 2006:
“This is Sen. John McCain. I’m calling to urge you to support my friend Rep. Rick Renzi for Congress. Rick has represented the first district of Arizona with tenacity, honesty and integrity beyond reproach. I work with Rick every day and can report to you his total dedication to the people of Arizona and the United States. Please join me in supporting rural Arizona’s workhorse congressman on Nov. 7.”
I’m sure McCain believes Renzi will beat all 35 of those indictments…. with his “tenacity, honesty and integrity beyond reproach”. Mmmmmmm…………..
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/22/politics/politico/thecrypt/main3867460.shtml
Hello from Calcutta.
Reading pbcom from somewhere like here does rather put our debates into perspective.
“Gimmickgate”?
Deary me.
Here is a diary of my first day in this city of 20 million people.
21:00 Arrive from Bangkok
22:00 Drive into Calcutta. On the way learn that Winston Churchill said of this city: “I am glad I have now been to Calcutta, because it means I never have to go there again”.
22:30 During the drive, nearly crash twice due to insane traffic conditions: cars ignoring lights, trucks barrelling up wrong side of road, everyone pressing horns creating a mindnumbing cacophony
22:35 Wonder if I am just being paranoid and traffic isn’t that bad
22:36 See afermath of road accident with taxi completely overturned, in a narrow street: blood is splashed across the asphalt
23:46 Go to bed at hotel with enormous gin and tonic
09:30 Visit Futurehope, a charity that works with Calcutta’s thousands of streetchildren: abandonded, homeless and feral kids
09:40 Meet ten year old Apu. Hear how he was found lying in the railway station where he slept with a razor blade under his tongue which he used to defend himself from attackers
10:10 Meet fifteen year old Amar, who was burned hideously when his mosquito net caught fire: a fire that killed his mother who was lying next to him. He was found in station sniffing glue and smoking heroin. He plays football with us
10:50 Meet fifteen year old Radu who was found age seven living on street having been continuously raped for years by predatory homosexuals: his syphilis was so bad he had to sit on a bucket of potassium permanganate for six weeks
10:55 See the murals that Radu now paints. He is a charming and friendly boy
11:00 Just about manage not to cry
11:40 Go for tour of Calcutta, “the city of joy”
11:50 On way out into town pass a begging leper, with no fingers, and see people living in plastic shacks by side of the road
12:00 Learn that we are in “the posh part of town”
1:00 Visit flower and spice market where peasant girls in gorgeous aris sell beautiful garlands of orange jasmine
1:45 See people living under the nearby flyover
2:15 Crawl through traffic and have minor crash: driver ignores incident
2:16: See an angry taxi driver continuously punching a smaller guy, in the middle of the street
2:30 Go to the shores of the great river Hooghly, a tributary of the Ganges
2:40 Thousands of men are washing in the filthy water. An albino child, apparently abandoned, stares wistfully at the banyan trees
4:00 Cross the river on the world’s busiest bridge - a mighty steel arch erected by the British - and take the slumroad to the “burning ghat”
5:00 Three corpses are being cremated in the open air, on great pyres of wood: a new corpse is being prepared for its immolation. The relatives stand around chatting and singing as they watch the corpse attenders anoint the head with dark brown liquid butter
5:30 Watch as the fire is lit; the distinct scent of burning human flesh fills the air
5:45 Step back from the heat and smoke as a previous pyre is stoked by the corpse attenders; the half burned corpse rolls out of the embers: the skull is still intact but the legs are burned away
5:50 Turn away from sight
6:10 See that behind me is a man naked from the waist down, in the process of soiling himself, his loins are a mass of scarlet sores and he is covered in a pullulating carapace of flies
6:30 Realise the man is dying. Wonder if am only person to notice this
6:45 Climb back in Futurehope van to visit street kids who live under the platforms of the vast Howdah railway station
7:15 See a ten year old boy lying across tracks with green flannel draped across his face: the flannel is soaked in glue. His body spasms as he inhales
7:50 Fight enormous urge to get taxi straight to airport
9:00 Instead go to visit Sochinaga, the red light district of Calcutta, where 12 year old Nepalese girls grab every man by the arm, trying to drag him in
9:15 Decide as a group to go immediately to the Calcutta Cricket Club and have maybe seventeen Kingfisher beers, trying to blot out image of dying man
11:00 Get taxi back to hotel, on way pass riot where a man is being set on fire by angry crowd because he ran over and killed a child earlier in the day: later learn that man died of burns
11:30 Have late dinner in hotel of softshell crab in brandy and chili sauce, accompanied by Chilean shiraz
11:45 Realise wine cost hundred pounds: realise have drunk, in forty minutes, a year’s salary of average Calucttan
12:05 Go to bed.
12:06 Take Val1um.
Barack’s $50 million cannot hurt; he already had (and has spent) more than Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/22/us/20080222_CLINTON_GRAPHIC.html
Thank you Sean. That set of images certainly puts my own (comfortable, suburban) situation in the world into perspective. Suddenly life here in northern Europe is put into the global context, which is all too easily forgotten.
‘Is it premature to say “It’s all over - Barack’s won?”‘
In short… yes.
I said the same thing to practically everyone I knew the day before New Hampshire and had my fingers burnt by Clinton’s supernatural ability to come back from the brink.
The thread links look familiar!
[7] I agree.
Well according to the latest poll in Texas the game is up for Hillary. Perhaps her ‘valedictory comments’ at the end of the debate were also partly fueled by internal polling showing a similiar trend -
Decision Analyst poll for Texas -
Clinton 45% - Obama 57%.
McCain 59% - Huckabee 35%
http://www.decisionanalyst.com/publ_data/2008/obama.dai
Apologies the Clinton figure is 43% not 45%.
Hillary down to the low 15’s in the Iowa markets.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/feb/23/uksecurity.terrorismandtravel
11 - DA are pretty new to political polling so we cant be sure how accurate they, the big leads for Obama in both TX and OH have certainly not been recorded by any other pollsters (bar ARG - but then again thats ARG!), however all the polls have shown Obama closing rapidly as Clinton falls back and thats before TX’s (where early voting amougst african-americans apears massive) caucus is factored into the result.
11. The figure sums to 100%, so they pushed undecideds or left them out of the figures. It’s not directly comparable to other polls.
Is the Texas primary an open primary? Or do you have to be registered to the party before you can vote?
Are we thinking that Obama will win Texas and lose Ohio? If so I think Clinton will fight on until Pensylvania, however the money drain may rule that out as there is an incredibly long gap between the primaries and the issue will be whether or not Clinton can afford to be in the race for those seven weeks.
7. Indeed.
On topic, it is too early to say Barack’s won the general election - though he really should have the nomination now (but even that’s not quite secure yet).
I get a distinct impression of McCain cleaning stables and getting clean of stories that would be a lot more damaging if they came out in October (or had come out in the last six weeks). This is an ideal time for McCain to do this, having wrapped up the nomination for himself, with months to go before the conventions and general election camapaign, and with the Democratic race still taking the majority of the media attention.
McCain should not be underestimated, nor should the GOP machine.
I would suggest that the minimum that Hillary needs to stay in the race is one big state and one smaller one.
The Texas election is a complex hybrid of primary and caucus. The primary element is indeed open eligibility.
5: absolutely agree with seanT that most of the things we get excited about pale into insignificance compared with some of the things in the developing world. The funeral rites are cultural and IMO not intrinsically wrong, but the rest speaks for itself.
We might draw different political conclusions from that. It’s one of the *main* reasons I’m a Labour politician rather than the contented IT manager that I was in 1996; others might see other approaches. But if we can agree on the relative importance it’s a start.
18: Agree with David H’s assessment (as per usual).
Something else I saw when I woke up this morning - the off-record leaks from the Clinton campaign are no longer attempting to tamp down expectations but ramp them up. Things like ‘up at least 8% in TX and OH’ in their internal polls (which haven’t been leaked, just referred to). That suggests, to me, that they seriously fear being written off completely at this point. If Obama can avoid giving the appearance of a triumphal procession, he should benefit from this. It’s absolutely delicious that he’s co-opted Hillary’s purported advantage in early voting as well.
Looking to November, it doesn’t look good for the GOP right now. Gallup reports 40% identification as Democratic - the highest since 2000, and very high historically as well. Identification as Republican is down to 26%. These are volatile numbers, but they’re absolutely terrible for McCain and downticket R candidates. The McCain ’scandal’ had me worried, as it looked like there wasn’t much beef, but the contradiction that’s emerged, and the inept response to it, is making me very happy. It’s already mildly unfavourable for JMac, although as David Herdson says this is the best time for this stuff to emerge, but any more dirt and things like a semi-viable 3rd party conservative/regional candidacy (which would destroy him) start to be real prospects.
20. Thanks Nick, and everyone for your kind remarks. I have been slightly shaken by my visit here. But also impressed by the amazing work that futurehope do with the streetkids.
It’s hard to think of a more deserving charity. Here’s their website, if anyone wants to know more:
http://www.futurehope.net
On the subject of the funerals: of course I do not criticise the Hindus for their funeral practises. On the contrary there was a dignity in the burning ceremonies, the chanting and praying, the flames rising to the sky, by the mighty river - far nobler than some furtive affair in a municipal crematorium…
However the contrast with the man actually dying just a few yards away from the pyres was too much to take. For me anyway.
Sorry for the sombre and macabre nature of these posts. I’m flying out tomorrow (and fairly thankful for that, if I’m honest) and hopefully the Bangkok sun will return me to my normal cheery if splenetic self.
Sawadee.
Tories think McCain unsound on the EU (lol):
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/02/john-mccain—t.html
Ben @ 15.
I agree that caution is required.
However this poll is following the trend in other recent ‘Clinton states’ - Big double digit Hillary lead falls to high single figures, falls to margin of error, first poll shows Obama in lead, followed by flip flop leads for both candidates, followed by frequent Obama leads and finaly an Obama win in the primary or caucus.
The Obama lead in DA poll is large and they are local pollsters. We’ll see, but the trend is clear.
toontoon @ 17.
Open primary in Texas and Ohio.
5 Welcome to India, SeanT.
It surely isn’t your first visit? You must surely have had some idea what to expect? It is the most extraordinary place.
Fine piece of writing, btw. Nothing like a bit of perspective on a Saturday morning.
22 Travel well, SeanT and let us all know when you arrive safely in Bangkok.
22: Thanks, seanT - your writing skills are bringing this so vividly to us, and I assume you’ll be writing more elsehwere. More power to your elbow.
seant, I noticed, that the name of the character, that you condemned to a horrible death in your latest work, was De Savery!
Obviously some sort of revenge on Peter De Savery, whose ‘Landsend Experience’ has done so much to enrich your tribal homeland.
24 The words that made me sit up straight, Peter, were ‘local pollsters’. Throughout these Primaries, the locals have been consistently the most accurate.
It’s not quite over, but we’re well into the endgame and the Obama team continue to play in grandmasterly fashion.
5 and 22. SeanT. Thanks for an excellent piece of writing. Very moving and evocative. Makes one feel extremely guilty for the luxuries we enjoy.
7. David Herdson. That’s an interesting suggestion that McCain is getting his bad news out now while he can. Certainly anything he deals with now will probably be long forgotten by November.
Is this the same Michael Denzil Xavier Smithson who was telling us after Super Tuesday that it was time to pile into Clinton as there were plenty of twists and turns to come? And yet the grim slide continued
. Although I heard from somebody that he got 50-1 on Obama at one time - not sure who told me that.
Not quite over yet. Clinton still has some life but it looks very much like the Alamo rather than Rourkes Drift.
Do people think there was a defining moment in the end? Texas may well be the knockout blow but with hindsight, Maine looks like the tipping point although it seemed relatively minor at the time.
31 — the defining moment, or at least the tipping point was the death of the GOP race which left independents, neutrals and even Republicans to vote for Obama. And maybe that goes back to the unpopularity of the Bush White House.
31. The tipping point wasn’t just Maine, but Maine coming off the other results that weekend in Nebraska and Washington in particular. They were huge wins and Maine coming on top of that really shifted the momentum his way.
To use a footballing analogy,it’s never over until the ref blows the final whistle.
Speaking of which must dash to Birmingham to see the Gooners win 2-1.
Somewhat depressed after reading Sean T’s post at number 5
32. Yes, that’s a fair point. Not sure the unpopularity of the White House has much to do with it tough. The GOP race got decided on Super Tuesday, in no small part because Giuliani wasn’t in it and McCain was the major beneficiary of that absence. You could point to the Republican primary in Florida (or the run-up to it) as being the crucial time if you wanted to go down John L’s line of thinking, though that still wouldn’t have affected the caucuses in the Feb 9-10 contests much.
31. Realistically Hillary’s prospects after Super Tuesday were poor, although there was no way to be sure of that until it was confirmed over the next two weeks. Maine was a terrible blow to her - I said at the time that losing it meant losing Wisconsin, which meant that we’d be where we are now. However, I think Maine was symptomatic rather than causative - she was in no position to win it, given Obama’s great organizational strength and preparation, but such things are not clear from poll data or the news.
James. I think RodCrosby deserves a lot of credit for crunching the state delegate numbers and recognising the scale of the task facing Clinton, around the time of the Maine primary. This was a significant time before any political commentators I read or listened to had seen the penny drop. Even the excellent CNN team, “the best political team on television” - and I think they are - have only recently worked out the math.
I think I asked here on Maine night whether we might have reached the tipping point?
32 - Not sure. Of the votes since Super Tuesday, Nebraska, Washington and Maine were caucuses, Louisiana, DC, and Hawaii were closed, Maryland partially closed. Only Wisconsin and Virginia were fully open and they weren’t especially close. It has helped but I don’t think it has been decisive.
Before ‘gimmickgate’ Camerron found it hard to get in the news. So will the Tory poll ratings rise now Cameron is in the news?
37 - Yes, there has been some good analysis on here but I should have said it wasn’t widely seen in the wider world as a tipping point. The discussion on the primary season has been good on here and contrast unfavourably with a lot of the fevered discussion on British politics.
40 I agree, James, and I thought Maine was the tipping point.
But don’t knock us for mentioning the 50/1! If it happens, it will be by some way the biggest price winner I ever backed. What’s yours?
Mass defection of Labour members to Conservatives in Derby:
http://www.thisisderbyshire.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=131596&command=displayContent&sourceNode=124371&contentPK=19963157&folderPk=55129&pNodeId=124522
Ealing all over again
5 - nice persepective ST, thanks.
42 Interesting that they have gone straight to the Tories and not the LibDems.
45. Practical people, obviously
43. Just what I thought.
But the point about Ealing Southall applies here too: because of the community structure, mass defections in one part of the constituency (Southall) have little impact on the rest of the constituency. Tony Lit left an opening for the Lib Dems in the traditionally Tory sections of West Ealing.
45 because the tories will form the next government - and they can see that being a liberal is pointless
46: Tribal people are always happiest in a tribe.
O/T - SeanT, is this one of yours?
‘I was Tortured by the Pygmy Love Queen’ - Short-listed for Oddest Book Title of the Year, by the Bookseller magazine.
No, not an autobiographical confessional by Jasper McCutcheon, but a story that does very much what it says on the tin. “Navy pilot Henry is forced to crash-land in a rainforest where a group of evil pygmies and their Caucasian queen find him, and subject him to erotic tortures,” says the marketing blurb.
45. Again, same as in Southall - I don’t know how Labour’s crime policy and stance on university fees differ from the Tories, so a switch to the LDs would have been the obvious move. Is there something about the corporate identity / authoritarian values of these communities that makes them allergic to Liberalism?
Goodness some of these comments from frustrated Lib Dems are verging on the racist…
41 - I had a nice punt on Barnsley at 25-1 last weekend which I was fairly pleased with and haven’t stopped boasting about! Also quite pleased to get a bit onto McCain at 20-1.
50
Do you have the ISBN number on that? For research purposes of course.
The Mail’s still not totally convinced about Cameron.
http://tinyurl.com/3xskqq
54 It’s available for you on Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/Tortured-Pygmy-Love-Queen-Books/dp/1934625132/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1203764340&sr=1-3
I Was Tortured by the Pygmy Love Queen by Jasper McCutcheon. Alerted to it by this:
http://www.thebookseller.com/news/53656-oddest-book-titles-prize-shortlist-announced.html
And good news - his follow up novel is just out: Go Ahead, Woman, Do Your Worst! Erotic Tales of Heroes Chained.
Jasper McCutheon, you are a nom-de-plume of SeanT and I claim my £5…
52. No, I think it’s a legitimate question, whatever the race. The Lib Dems did well to attract ethnic minority voters over the Iraq War in 2003-4 but still haven’t sealed the deal.
Ultimately voters (and activists) of all races prefer to back parties that have a shot at power - so the Lib Dems are inevitably disadvantaged. But I suspect that these opportunists are the kind of activists that any party would be better off without.
I think these ludicrous attempt to find Keating v 2.0 (not that the original scandal had any substance to it) are ludicrous. The only thing that this has done has been to destroy the NYT’s and the Washington Post’s credibility. I think we can safely ignore the Grey Lady’s “I endorsed him before I decided to smear him” stance. If recycling Karl Rove’s smears from 2000 are the best they can come up with McCain is home and dry.
I’m still predicting a 45+ state blowout. After all the latest Rasmussen poll has McCain within 3% of Obama in MA of all places (I guess Ted Kennedy’s endorsement isn’t doing Obama that much good after all).
We shouldn’t write Hillary off. I don’t usually exclude pollsters but DA have no track record and their decision to sample from consumer records rather than a random sample from registered voters makes them as accurate as the Literary Digest in 1936. Such a company is obviously going to underestimate Hillary Clinton, whose support comes from blue collar and low income voters. A strange polling company indeed!
Adding the latest poll from Rasmussen. Hillary still maintains a comfortable lead in OH and McCain still leads by nearly 30%.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/23/inside-baseball-has-little-effect-on-the-ohio-contest/
41 - The various prices on Hillary to win NH probably win - I think ‘Political Capital’ recorded a bet at 110 on Betfair on that spike. However, 50-1 at a fixed odds bookie 4 years before the election is a hell of a spot, and deserves at least a daily outing.
Maine was the tipping point, partly as losing it would have broken his 10-0 run into two chunks and undermining the ‘irresistable momentum’ narrative, and partly becuase it was his first proper win in the North East. After not getting close in MA, NY, NJ, and not winning NH (winning DE because of the South), he only had CT (home of the independent voter) in New England. This gave him evidence that he could appeal to Democrats in the Duck Boot Belt.
58 “I’m still predicting a 45+ state blowout.”
I’ll give you ten states on top of that - £20 says that McCain wins less than 35 states in November. You up for that?
55. The Daily Mail are behaving weirdly. For the whole time New Labour have been in power, the Mail have been sniping and bitching away. Then Brown takes over (Brown who along with Blair, Mandy and Alistair Campbell, created new labour) and its like the past ten years have never happened, or of they did happen, Brown wasn’t there. Its a really bizzare situation.
58 - A 45-state blowout would mean McCain wins a minimum of 370 EC votes (ie biggest 5 to Obama = CA(55)+TX(34)+NY(31)+FL(27)+IL(21)=168, and 538-168 = 370). That is generous to Obama - if he won 5 states that weren’t the biggest, McCain would be looking at between 370 and 516. I’ll take your minimum suggested for McCain of 370 as a conservative prediction.
Assuming McCain vs Obama, I’ll offer you the spread at *350* Electoral College votes for McCain, £10 per vote.
Eg If McCain wins 370 ECV as you suggest is the minimum, I give you £200. If he comes in 20 votes under what you suggest as a minimum, you break even. If he gets more than 20 votes less than your prediction of 370, you pay me at £10 per EC vote.
Serious offer.
61: Not really. The Mail remains hostile to Labour - there are lots of “Labour setback as new report shows…” stories. But they like Brown and don’t think much of Cameron. It produces an odd mix of stories, and is a different sort of bet-hedging from the Sun, which simply alternates pro- and anti-government stories and leaders.
Meanwhile, another bad Land election looms for Chancellor Merkel. The latest Hamburg poll for tomorrow’s election shows the CDU down 7%, the Social Democrats up 4, and the Left up 8 (didn’t stand last time). Greens are down 3 and the populist right-wing Schill list which got 3% last time isn’t standing again. Exit polls expected about 5pm tomorrow UK time.
60-Sounds an extremely safe £20;the GOP carried 9 states by
62. Don’t forget DC in your calculations…
64 continued the GOP carried 9 states by under 10% in 2004,and 5 more apiece for the 10-15% and 15-20% margins.
R.e 62 Is it not perfectly plausible 370 will be roughly the no of ECVs Obama gets-I;ve said before that a 92/96 scale Democratic Party victory seems a perfectly plausible outcome
OT. Around 300 members of Derby Labour Party are expected to defect to the Tories tonight. Practically all from the Asian Community.
They say that Labour has lost touch with Asian Community and that they’re undemocratic because of the forced deselection of one of their councillors.
Labour counter-claim is that it has all to do with the candidates’ selection. In practice Labour leader asked the regional office to take charge of the selection in 2/3 wards because he thought that some people were joining just to support particular candidates, so the regional party took charge of the process and deselected that particular councillor.
(it seems to me that this type of things (strange selections and mass defections) often happen in strong BAME areas, or is it a wrong impression?)
67. Ok, I see I was beated hours ago with that news
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/21/22148/2472
this is worth a watch - she might have stopped the draining of support or maybe not.
65 - Thanks Rod! I could pretend I was being strict on the meaning of ’state’ in 45+ states, but in reality I just forgot!!
I’ll be generous to Matthew and say 45+ means Obama get 5 states *plus* DC, so McCain would win between 367 and 513 EC votes if he won 45 states.
66 Patrick - yes I think so. 350 is a more than possible figure for Obama (eg If McCain takes the South (TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, TN, Ky, WV) plus Florida, Nebraska, Arizona, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah; Obama to take N Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Virginia, and the rest).
However, Matthew is convinced of a McCain whitewash, which is why the offer of a bet was limited that way.
Interesting offers but….
The current spreads on Spreadfair for the GOP are 25.5-27.5 in terms of states and 241-247 in terms of EVs. They are also giving Obama a 60% chance of winning if nominated. Whatever I personally think about the election I’d be a fool to accept singnificantly worse odds than the market, especially when hundreds of pounds are being quoted (I’m living on a research grant so I can’t afford to throw money away).
I’m willing to bet £20 and £50 respectively at evens on McCain in a McCain v Obama contest getting more than 30 states and more than 260 electoral votes (on the condition that if something happens to either of the candidates that removes them from the contest the bet is voided).
Alternatively I’m willing to bet £5 and £12.50 respectively at odds of 3/1 (or in betfair notation 4.00) that McCain will get more than 38 states and more than 350 Electoral votes (same conditions as before). Drop me an email at m.j.partridge@nospamlse.ac.uk if you are interested.
61 & 63 etc. I do not see that that is particularly behaving weirdly. Actually it is quite level headed of the Mail - which some might argue is behaving weirdly for the Mail - the Tories position on Northern Rock has been a bit of opposition for opposition’s sake, and as such has seemed a bit false to most people. And the Mail is merely reporting that.
At the end of the day, I have always thought that Cameron’s main shortcoming is the strategy of trying to pin everything on Brown. That is all very well, but if the public think, like they seem to in this case, that it is largely someone else’s fault, then it looks too bitter to most people. I think if Cameron wants to win the next election, he needs to find a few other riffs, even if he does return to his main theme. If not he will use up too much of his early fresh faced credit.
42 - Looks like yet another mass defection from Labour in Derby. IIRC, there were 40 odd defections from Labour to the Lib Dems last year in one day.
I am always suspicious of mass defections or new recruits. Just down the road in Leicester, Labour had a problem with “entryism” which then seemed to transfer to the Lib Dems resulting in a breakaway group of Cllrs and subsequent annihilation in last years elections.
The Conservatives don’t appear to be benefitting much long term from their new recruits in Ealing, and I have heard other cautionary tales from other parts of London, Birmingham and Manchester.
If the new Conservatives in Derby are from varied backgrounds and have different agendas, then they have truely pulled off a massive coup. If however they are all from the same community then the local Conservatives will need to be very vigilant when it comes to selections for Cllrs & MP’s and looking out for block voting for one candidate. I hope that I am wrong, but I sometimes wonder how many painful lessons local parties need to learn before they tackle this problem.
Going back on thread, the only thing I can see saving Clinton now are a series of national polls showing that she is better placed than Obama to beat McCain. This seems very unlikely, to say the least.
When I saw those first series of polls showing Obama best placed, that was the moment when I changed my mind and thought that he would win. I’m sure that would have had a massive impact on many uncommitted Democrats who want one of their own in the White House!
71 - Which is why I’m amazed you don’t take up more on the market. It offers 241-247, and you personally think 367-513 - you could pay all fees for a PhD at £100 per vote, even taking the market’s upper range, and your lower estimate.
I wouldn’t put £50 on McCain > 260, as that’s a movement from winning 45+ states in a landslide to losing by 2 or 3 states. I suppose my point is that I think that Obama landslide, or a close win for either candidate is possible, but I cannot see a McCain landslide, which is why I offered the bet, but responded to Patrick as I did.
I might drop you an e-mail on the 3-1 bet, but I’m running late. Will look at this when less-than-sober this evening!
I’m off to watch some rugby - have a good day, all.
61. The reason for The Mail’s position is that Paul Dacre and the rest of them never liked Blair and so Brown styling himself as the anti-Blair was always going to get him some good coverage. Similarly, they have always given Cameron a rocky ride since he came out as the ‘heir to Blair.’ They were never going to be crazy about him after that.
74 Rugby, Morus? Wales play Rugby?
Enjoy.
72- “IIRC, there were 40 odd defections from Labour to the Lib Dems last year in one day.”
yes, last time the wards mentioned were Arboretum and Normanton.
This time they’re Normanton, Sinfin and Arboretum.
Apparently before the defections Labour had around 800 members in those 3 wards.
72 Paul Dacre prefers Gordon because Gordon is much more socially conservative than Cameron and as such closer the the Dacre Mail agenda. Gordon is’nt at all part of what Dacre views as the louche metropolitan/metrosexual elite. They are kindred spirits. Don’t doubt they both view Cameron as a dilettante to whom everything came too easy, with no depth, a man (as Hilary would say) is about words not work.
I do hope we can continue to talk about the Labour and Tory “tribes” without being accused of racism, but, if not, would “herds” be a better term?
78. Ted. So you don’t think that Cameron misjudged this particular position?
Spectator has an interesting article about Obama- and the parallels with Othello!
78 If you read back you will see I thought it a stupid error by CCHQ & Cameron (Cameron didn’t say anything about it in his speech but still carries the can for incorrect briefing). The regular “knock Cameron” features in the Saturday Mail and in MoS points to Dacre’s views.
Dacre was invited to the funeral of Brown’s daughter, demonstrating their personal friendship (I don’t take Alistair Campbell’s view of Gordon’s motives).
79 - I can understand why people tread very carefully here, for the reason you describe.
Perhaps religion is more of an issue here than race. Wasn’t Martin Bell’s election campaign in Brentwood in the 2001 GE something to do with many members of a church in the local Conservative Association?
A couple of points from the last thread. Firstly, the “holocaust gimmick” story is a storm in a teacup. Personally, I share a number of Casino Royale’s concerns about this sort of thing (although I don’t know if his description of Auschwitz is fair or not). I don’t like the idea of the State taking over something like Holocaust commemoration, as I really don’t need to have State-organised events to teach me that the mass murder of innocent people is morally wrong. And while one can say it drives home the message “never again”, it is perfectly possible to derive entirely the wrong lesson from this - by embarking in disastrous intevention in foreign civil wars. I also feel that several generations of Germans have been taught to hate themselves, which I don’t regard as at all healthy.
WRT the Nat West Three, Gabble overlooks the point that they pleaded guilty as part of a plea bargain. They were offered a three year sentence, in a fairly easy prison, if they pleaded guilty. If they were tried and convicted, they faced a 30 year term in unpleasant conditions. I know if I were offered such a deal, I’d jump at it, however strong I thought my case was, and I’d advise a client to do so also.
82. I agree Ted that it is known that Dacre and Brown have a strange friendship - I say strange only in as much as you wouldn’t have guessed if you didn’t know. But equally, the Mail have been pretty hardcore about giving Labour a kicking recently. I still think that this article is indicative of the Tories (currently maybe) being on the wrong side of this issue. It’s unfortunate connotation is that it smacks of the Punch and Judy politics he was supposed to be against.
David Cameron shops at the Co-op in search of a Tory dividend
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3419652.ece
Well i hope Cameron’s experience is better than mine with this type of organisation. The Co-op in my opinion tries to project a compasionate and egalitarian message but to meet its employees and customers; many of whom are rascist, xenophibic, class biased (Against individuals they believe are of a higher standing) and display the worst traits of selfishness (The me and now society)I wonder what type of benifit the tories will get from this drive.
Obviously the Conservative Co-op would be a new organisation but what utility will it offer to the public at large? Other than a duplication of the existing organisation, new values perhaps?
24 - Peter Jacques
I agree, the trend (both in OH and TX) is strongly in Obama’s favour considering the sizable leads Clinton commanded in both states as little as a week ago, that there is another week or more till both states vote (plus RI and VT lets not forget
) and that unlike the large super Tuesday states (ie. CA) she has no inbuilt advantage amongst early voters means its looking more and more likely not only that she wont secure the margins of victory she needs in both states but that Obama might actually win one or both… either way it’ll be very tough for Clinton to continue from there on… things could still flip round of course, but it’s looking unlikely.
‘But they like Brown’
No - Dacre does, no doubt for reasons that have little to do with ideology.
btw. re Dacre as a self-made man, this snippet from the Eye is interesting -
‘Dacre…had to work his own way through Leeds University, keeping the wolf from the door with regular holiday and gap year jobs on the Express - where by an astonishing coincidence his father Peter just happened to be a feature writer’.
88 Don’t see the problem with Dacre’s holiday job.
But then again my first job, in university hols, was as a draftsman in the Zambian Post Office Telecomunications drawing office for which I had no qualifications and was in law barred from doing without a work permit. I got special treatment from the State with a legal notice by the Dept of Employment in the Zambian Government Gazette extending employment rights to me (named) by Presidential decree.
My father just happened to be Director of Telecommunications.
I have taken three of Matthew Partridge’s four bets: that McCain gets >30 states (£20 at evens), that he gets >38 states( £5 at 3/1), that he gets >350 electoral votes (£12.50 at 3/1).
Additionally, he has accepted my wager on the honour of our respective universities: If McCain takes Massachusetts, I will own to the superiority of the L.S.E. student body, and if Obama takes Kansas, he will make the same statement about the Cambridge student body.
I’ll be emailing Mike Smithson to get all these recorded.
Sean. Your comments chime with me. An old and dear friend has a German mother and an English father of German extraction [and so has a very German surname]. We think there are problems with Brtish identity, but her Britishness is for less complicated than her ‘Germanness’ [is that a word?]. Guilt, anger, resentment, lack of self belief. Maybe it is because she largely grew up here? Don’t know.
Re Dacre. Brown is his mate. Not all your mates share your views but you are bound to be sympatetic to them. Dacre’s line is a careful balance of being nice to his mate and not alienating his readership. Though last time I picked up any news about this,I think the Mail had lost about 60,000 [and the Express had picked up 30,000 - over the same period].
He will get his reward in…in the Lords.
90 - I think you have got good value on the first three and good luck. On the other bet, I had not previously heard of either of these educational institutions and I am sure they are deserving of publicity - the former polys have indeed come a long way.
91 - the point is that 90% (at least!) of negative newspaper political reporting these days revolves about misrepresenting politicians positions, questioning their motives and basically accusing them of not telling the truth.
Any newspaper who values their friendship with any politician is obviously going to therefore struggle to find a way to give their coverage a slant against them. Probably partly explains why we get so many stories about Gordon not getting on with his colleagues. It’s the only formula that allows the Mail to criticise the Govt without criticising Gordon.
93. A bit like the old Russian approach of blaming the Tsar’s ‘evil advisers’ rather than criticising the Tsar himself…appropriate in more ways than one.
91 If you’re taught to hate your ancestors, you’ll finish up hating yourself. That’s why I so dislike the attitude of the teacher Casino Royale mentioned who taught his pupils to describe 18th English people as “racists” (a complete anachronism). The sensible approach is to try to retain our ancestors’ virtues, while trying to outgrow their faults.
As an aside, it is a real pity that medieval history is hardly taught in our schools as the sales of books by people like Alison Weir, Ian Mortimer, Kate Barker etc. show that there is a real appetite for it among the general public.
95. Indeed, and the assumption must be that those in charge of ‘history’ in state schools are attempting to inculcate in youngsters the same self-loathing which they themselves feel.
Clearly they are horrified at the possibility that pupils might develop some pride or admiration for the achievements or values of their ancestors - that could lead them to become fascists, or worse still, Tory supporters.
96 Well, we’ve all experienced self-hating leftie teachers, I’m sure. However, IMHO, so long as there are alternative views about, attempts to indoctrinate children don’t just fail, but actually backfire. I’ve got one friend whose parents were both teachers and ardent communists. They used to take him to the Soviet Union, to see the Worker’s Paradise in action, so naturally he became an ardent Conservative at university.
A subject like the Holocaust is clearly capable of being used as a political football along the lines of “this is what happens when right wingers are in power”, or “this is what happens if you object to mass immigration” etc.
Hard to disagree with Sean Fear’s comment that “The sensible approach is to try to retain our ancestors’ virtues, while trying to outgrow their faults.” My main reservation is that having lived in various countries it seems to me that people have an instinctive tendency to exaggerate their country’s virtues and be indulgent about its faults.
That’s not healthy either, since if problems arise it swiftly trranslates into grudge-bearing - how dare group X or country Y be difficult when we’re such good guys? US politics suffers from that quite a lot. Germany, by contrast, is probably more immune to right-wing extremism now than any other major country - they’ve learned at school where it leads. President Heinemann’s rejoinder when he was asked if he loved Germany seems to me good (from memory): ‘No, I love my wife. I just wish my country well.’
95.I think Stodge got it right on the previous thread.
“I always thought the point of education was less to try and tell children everything but more to inculcate an enthausiasm to go on and find out and learn for themselves.”
I think that medieval history is enjoying a bit of a revival just now.
96. I don’t wholly share your view. Brighter kids who read a lot off their own bat and have educated parents will be exposed to alternative views and interpretations of history. Indoctrination will fail for most of these individuals.
But for most children, the only real source of historical information is what they will pick up at school. So a broad swathe of the population will end up with a low level indoctrination that will probably stay with them indefinitely.
86
My experience of our local Co-op has none of the nasty features you describe. On the whole the staff are friendly, and it largely caters to the elederly and poorer sections of our society (as it has a Post Office inside it is crowded on benefit and pension day).
Personally I find that apart from the offers it is VERY expensive and bad vfm so I prefer other supermarkets.
Perhaps your co-op is in a nasty racist area?
91, 95 96
My experience of history taught in Scottish schools was it was badly taught and stopped at 1914. I suspect history teaching requires a real love of it to teach it properly. My experience of teachers in general was that about 10-20% loved their subject and really enthused their pupils. The rest were as bored as we were:-)
As far as visiting WW2 monuments when at school, I know I would have been bored stiff…(and I like history).
Imo teaching history by visting places is doomed to failure: the inevitable journeys etc take up so much time it’s not really useful or efficient in term time.. and it really needs an enthusiastic and knowledgeable guide who can make it all come alive.
“My main reservation is that having lived in various countries it seems to me that people have an instinctive tendency to exaggerate their country’s virtues and be indulgent about its faults.”
I suppose that’s natural and understandable. I really don’t like the German approach at all. Harry Enfield’s caricature of the earnest young German saying to everyone “I really must apologise for my country’s conduct in both World War’s” has unfortunately far too much truth in it.
Medieval history is enjoying a revival, the Da Vinci code is probably to, ‘blame’ anything to do with the: Templars,Cathars etc
is snapped up.
Dacre’s dislike of Cameron is due primarily to one thing, ‘drugs’ the rumours that Dave may have experimented with drugs in his youth, (and perhpas a little more) is enough for Dacre. Hitchens is also another one who hates anyone who may be soft on drugs.
99 - Unfortunately the idea that education should be about equipping students to learn for themselves goes against everything they are told about how results are more important than anything. Students are so worried about not getting results that they expect nothing more than to be told how to pass the exam by the teacher. The idea of learning for its own sake is a distant memory and that’s what is stifling education.
I’m not a fan of self-loathing but if any country deserves to be ashamed of its past then it surely is Germany. Indeed, shame at its past is as natural and understandable as pride is in the past of other countries.
98: ‘My main reservation is that having lived in various countries it seems to me that people have an instinctive tendency to exaggerate their country’s virtues and be indulgent about its faults.’
There is also a tendency to view things in absolutes, and over simplify the causes of events.
History is not a special case. All school subjects have been affected.
It looks like the desire of the establishment is to have an American-style system, with isolated topics and “graduation” for still being there at 18 before moving to college for an (old) A-level standard education for a first degree. America’s not done too badly over the years, but then it has probably the best post-graduate system in the world.
105. The point is that everyone has the right (indeed, the duty, if one sees it that way) to be ashamed of one’s country’s past (or present) behaviour. There is much in British history that we might reasonably be ashamed of, just as there is much we can be proud of. What is a problem is the systemic inculcation, within the education system, of either an attitude of unthinking patriotic pride or of indiscriminate condemnation of our forebears.
I think it’s fair to teach children that the Holocaust was morally wrong, that slavery was wrong, that democracy is a good thing. But pupils can learn these principles whilst retaining the freedom to make their own judgement about any particular situation. I think one of the greatest joys of history is working out, often over a long period of time, just who was right in any given dispute and where one would have stood at that time.
Don’t forget The Oscars everyone and Roger’s tips. I have followed his suggestion of backing Marion Cotillard for Best Actress, currenly best price 5/2 with Extrabet, against odds on favourite Julie Christie. I’ve also had a few quid on some of his longer shot suggestions, including 33/1 Saoirse Ronan for best supporting actress, although he expects the favourite Cate Blanchett will win this category. Saoirse might get a consolation prize for best sequence of vowels in a first name, although I’m not certain they are running with that category this year.
Go Roger!!!
105: Ashamed of Hegel, Bach, Kant, Luther, Dürer, Beethoven, Hesse, Mann, Herzog, Strauss and Orff?
110. It is precisely because Germany was a country of culture and civilisation, and yet allowed herself to descend into unparalled depths of barbarity, that Germans are - and should - be ashamed.
101 Bringing together your points on enthusiasm and those on pride in country. At the LSE (some time ago) I attended lectures by Prof Michael Zander on the English Legal System - could have been a dry subject but his enthusiasm and his perspective on the development of principles rooted in history and how the English common law developed, equity and subsequent conflicts of equity and law, statute law, juries etc has stayed with me and still informs my views. He managed to both enthuse as a teacher and provide an historical perspective in the struggle for justice that both made you proud and recognise why those hard fought freedoms were worth defending.
[110] You forgot Nietzsche and Manfred Eicher. Shame on you
111: Germany hardly descended into ‘unparalled depths of barbarity’. You only have to look at what was happening in Stalin’s Russia to see what the German’s did was hardly ‘unparalled’ or unique.
A Rasmussen report on Hillary’s crumbling Ohio firewall -
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_robert_d_novak/clinton_s_crumbling_ohio_firewall
95 - I guess the problem with Medieval History is that it doesn’t make for a varied syllabus. The hazy documentary evidence would probably result in too much “fact” teaching and not enough interpretation. There’s a role for teaching facts as a basic building block, but the subject needs to develop into analysis of why events happened and the construction of arguments.
109 - An update on my tips and the buzz, Tilda Swinton is getting a lot of support for best supporting actress. Similarly, people are suggesting that No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood may cancel each other out and let Juno through, it nearly happened with Little Miss Sunshine last year.
Having gone through all the categories this is my final list of tips.
PICTURE
No Country for Old Men (Juno coming up on the rails)
DIRECTOR
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
ACTRESS
Ellen Page - Juno (really close race, possibly Cotillard, maybe Christie)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men (although I would go for Hoffman)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton (the most open race)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno - Diablo Cody
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (one that Atonement might spring a surprise on)
ANIMATED FEATURE
Ratatouille (bet your house, or if you’re Roger, all your houses)
ART DIRECTION
There Will Be Blood
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Counterfeiters - Austria (has the most buzz)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
No Country for Old Men - Roger Deakins (personally would go for Jesse James, Deakins’ vote may be split so that’s why I think most will plump for the most nominated of his two. Jesse James still worth a bet at 8/1)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight (Iraq, expect lots of panic about the speeches from the network)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Freeheld (maybe Salim Baba, my knowledge is very small on this)
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Peter & the Wolf (stop motion makes a comeback)
LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Tanghi Argentini (had a bit of money on this at a good price)
VISUAL EFFECTS, SOUND EDITING & SOUND
Transformers (if it gets one it should get them all)
COSTUME DESIGN
Atonement (The Green Dress….. - Elizabeth - The Golden Age may win because it looks the most difficult)
FILM EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum (maybe NCFOM again)
ORIGINAL SCORE
Atonement (tap, tap, tap on that typewriter)
ORIGINAL SONG
“Falling Slowly” - Once (Enchanted has three songs nominated, a surefire way to lose)
MAKEUP
La Vie en Rose - Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald (have you seen Cotillard without the make up on, maybe they’ll give it to Norbit for a laugh……)
So there you go, every category I think. If I get near fifteen right I’ll be very happy, this is a really tough year with plenty of ways it could all go.
Freeheld should be Freehold, whoops.
114. You don’t think the gas chambers, warped scientific experiments on people and lampshades made from human skin constitute unparalleled barbarity?
Barbarity, certainly. Unparalelled, sadly not.
119: I can’t put it better than Sean at 120.
118 - Bugger, it is Freeheld, told you that was the category I knew little about……..
I disagree. Unparallelled IMO.
119/120/123
Is this a contest to see how many ways you can spell unparalleled?
What other civilised country has plumbed these depths, might I ask?
Stalin’s Russia certainly scores well - if not top - in a crude ‘number of people killed/brutalised’ table. But does it really compete when we start to probe the extraordinary sadistic details of Nazi German activity?
125 - Don’t think you even need to include the word ‘civilised’. Hitler did it all in well under a decade as well.
124 - I claim the prize
Bl**dy Americans
I always love it when the right accuse people of being “self hating” . A view of the world that invading other peoples countries to exploit them is wrong is as applicable to Spain Britain and perhaps modern day USA, giving children a range of views in history and teaching them to assemble an argument is what history should really be about.
It would be nice though if the children in schools where I live could be tought about their history. They might admire heros from the past its true…but I dont think learning about Glyn dwr would turn them into Tories:)
Frankly, I think it’s a shame that a thread that started with Sean T’s sensitive and moving description of his visit to Calcutta should degenerate into a debate over the relative horrors of Nazi and Soviet barbarism.
129 - seant’s always involved when threads degenerate
119. Do some research. At least one of those allegations is now accepted as false, and the other two are under considerable pressure….
I wondered what the reference to Holocaust denial recently was…
117. You don’t think Attonement could get Best Picture, then? It got the best picture award from the Golden Globe’s and BAFTA, didn’t it?
133 - A British film winning a British award, I did tip it for the BAFTA for that reason. Personally I think it’s the best film overall taking into account script, acting and technical elements but the American press have been less enamoured of it. They also seem to think it peaked too early.
134. Yeah, thats what I would think. The Oscar’s tend to give their own movies the best pic awards, and leave the Brits to the acting awards.
I’m surprised to hear Attonement hasn’t gone down well in the States. Usually they love those movies with quant english accents, country manor house’s, etc… Perhaps they didn’t like the war angle, because it didn’t feature any American’s?
Anyway, looks like it should be a fun night. This isn’t going to be one of those dull years where the same movie runs away with everything. Looks like its going to be pretty close.