Could McCain be skewered by his own law?
February 24th, 2008
- Will Obama be able to outspend him by three or four to one?
One statistic that came out of Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary was that in the TV advertising war in the state Barack Obama spent five times as much as the cash-starved Clinton campaign. That’s a massive difference and might have had an impact on the outcome.
Looking forward to a McCain-Obama contest in November could the Democratic campaign have a similar overwhelming advantage? And if it does could the main cause have been the pioneering legislation that John McCain helped pushed through Congress six years ago. Quite simply could the likely GOP nominee be skewered by his own bill?
To give an idea of the battle he had to fight to get the legislation I’ve reproduced part of the cover of a National Rifle Association publication that was used to campaign against the McCain-Feingold bill - the law that, amongst other things, restricts the amount someone can give to a campaign to $2300.
A big consequence of this is that it puts a premium on being able to attract a mass of small donations - something which the traditional US political fundraising machines have never really paid attention to. It’s so much easier to get one person to give you $100,000 than to get 2000 people to give you $50.
Howard Dean saw the potential ahead of his abortive 2004 bid and Obama has followed in his wake. Both used the internet extensively and both built up massive databases of supporters. It’s now being suggested that the Illinois senator is heading towards a total of one million individual donors - almost all of whom can be contacted instantly by email and have yet to be “maxed” out, that is given the legal maximum.
Another problem that McCain faces is that last year he bid for federal funding, a key condition of which is a strict limit on what can be spent. He’s now trying to get out of that but is being told that he might have to stick with this.
If this is going to be down to money - then Barack looks like a winner.
White House race betting is here.
- Could we use this thread for US politics only and continue discussion on UK developments on the previous one?
MessageSpace Advertising
Caught a bit of the Clinton/Obama debate earlier in the week.
Both opposed the Iraq troop surge in 2007. Both playing to the gallery rather than exercising good judgement.
Just a note, if the states were awarded as they are in the general election this would be the tally the pundits would be talking about. An Obama win on March 4th would be if he swept all 4 states and a Clinton win would be if she won Ohio and Texas. The number in brackets is including Michigan and Florida.
Now:
Obama 190 electoral college votes
Clinton 161 (195)
Obama win March 4th:
Obama 251
Clinton 161 (195)
Clinton win March 4th:
Obama 197
Clinton 214 (249)
re 1. But only Obama was against the war crime of invading a country which wasn’t posing a direct threat. Following international law is not “playing to the gallery”.
£5k bet on Clinton at 6/1 today here at Ladbrokes, the largest we’ve taken on her for quite a while.
Ralph Nader declared his intention to run today.
250/1 Nader for anyone wishing to hedge. Probably worth a couple of quid if you’ve got 50/1 or something about Obama. Don’t know if anyone is on at that price, I seem to remember someone mentioning it.
The more immediate issue for McCain is the current Federal Funding row:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/story?id=4333948&page=1
Doesn’t play well with either McCain’s Straight Talking & Reform Campaign Funding politics.
If he can get Obama to accept public funding then the money advantage for the general election would be reduced. Obama said he would - McCain, if he accepted funding for that campaign could use that to Obama’s disadvantage.
Makes Mccain look more attractive now as he will undoubtably take votes away from the dems.
If he is forced into public funding for the Primaries that would be devastating. It limits spending to about $54m, and he has already spent nearly $50m. Breaking these limits can carry a 5-year jail term. The Head of the FEC wrote to McCain and said only a vote of the FEC could release him from his committment to public financing (this is a Republican). But the FEC is inquorate, it has only 2 out of 6 members (quorum is 4) because of wranglings between the White House and Congress. However McCain’s lawyer, a former member of the FEC has said McCain can withdraw unilaterally. A further grey area is a bankloan McCain took out, where he agreed to take public financing IF things went badly and he needed it. Legally it is unclear whether this is using the public financing (he may not have got the loan without it) and therefore commits him.
My feeling is this will be resolved, and McCain will not be committed, but it may involve legal wrangling that tarnish McCain. It also undercuts his attack on Obama for reconsidering his agreement to take public funding for the General if his opponent accepted it too. If it isn’t McCain will have only $5-10m to spend between now and August while Obama will have $150m+, and he would have to rely on the RNC running his campaign.
Latest Rasmussen Wisconsin Presidential Tracker -
McCain 43% - Obama 44%.
McCain 50% - Clinton 38%.
Awful poll for Hillary, continuing the trend of bad state by state match-up polls.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/wisconsin_2008_presidential_election
It’s very possible, the Dem base is a good deal wider and more energised… McCain will have the cash he needs to run a credible campaign but i think that if Obama is the Dem nominee he could have a big perhaps massive advantage (I’ll wait and see if the rumours that he’s on course to raise $50million+ for Feb are actually true). That said, it’s worth bearing in mind that after a certian point a campaign can reach “saturation point” and a cash advantage’s impact can be lessened.
2 - She’s probably favoured in RI as well… though Obama probably has a lock on VT. Beyond those two, I think TX probably goes for Obama before OH and i think the caucus makes him favoured to win more delegates there. What is most interesting is if the way Clinton lashed-out over the weekend suggests the Clinton campaign is very concerned that it may be bleeding support in OH as well, the polls in both states have been closing, but i dont think what looked like an angry rant will help (esspeically with the blue-collar, male, Dems who are so important to her). The spin from OH Gov Ted Strickland (a Clinton backer) also suggested some bracing within the campaign for a possible defeat even there.
7 - Nader will have virtually no effect, unless it is as tight as 2000. He probably won’t eb abe to get on the ballot in all the states. He only got 0.38% of the vote in 2004 and will likely get even less this time, and I would bet that most of these votes are from pople who wouldn’t vote for the Democrat anyway. So, at best he probably hurts the Dem nominee to the tune of 0.2%.
10 BTW Is that GOP Senator who beat Clelland in Georgia after that loathsome campaign up for relection this year
12 - Yes
Another match-up poll out of Iowa done by Ann Selzer who was bang on the money in the Primaries:
McCain 36 Obama 53
McCain 49 Clinton 40
Nader - a spoiler?
WASHINGTON - Ralph Nader is launching a third-party campaign for president. The consumer advocate made the announcement Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” He says most Americans are disenchanted with the Democratic and Republican parties, and that none of the presidential contenders are addressing ways to stem corporate crime and Pentagon waste and promote labor rights.
ADVERTISEMENT
Nader also ran as a third-party candidate in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. He is still loathed by many Democrats who call him a spoiler and claim his candidacy in 2000 cost the party the election by siphoning votes away from Al Gore in a razor-thin contest in Florida.
Can I join the voices saying that we like it when all the discussion (after a certain point, at least) is all on the same thread? I know it’s Mike’s site and his right to do as he pleases, but some sampling of user preferences might be interesting.
15. I agree
14 I love the “most Americans are disenchanted” as we hear of hugely increased turnouts for primaries and hear concerns that Obamamania is going too far. He is the Screaming Lord Sutch of Presidental elections nothing more (will now go and hide from JohnLoony’s response)
14 Doesn’t matter at all turnout will be up and the only people voting for him would be from the don’t vote or sod them all protest voters. The only 3rd Party with potential to impact would be a Dixiecrat style Social Conservatives revolt against McCain and thus far they seem to be opting for sitting it out rather than actively opposing him
12 - Saxby Chambliss? Yep, he’s up for re-election and expected to win, with no serious opposition.
Back in 2002 (IIRC) both John McCain and Chuck Hagel called his campaign against Cleland “reprehensible”… but since then the Dems in GA have gone into free-fall, with Gov Barnes and Cleland defeated in ’02 and Zell Miller effectively defecting after that it looks like being a long way back for the Democrats in that state.
15 Personally, I’m a multi-thread man, JDC. However, I think it is only good manners for posters to stay on thread for a bit. Mike puts a lot of time and effort into composing fresh thread articles and it must be frustrating to have them blatantly ignored by those with their own preoccupations.
Having said that, I’ve been guilty at times of going straight off-thread myself - a case of do as I say, not do as I do.
17 - Sad thing is that once upon a time Nader was an important and relevant advocate of consumer’s rights (seat-belts in cars being a particular achivement)… although while he’s talking about Pentagon “waste” he could do with look at the vast sums wasted on pork barrel spending by both Dems and Republicans.
Site suggestion for Mike:
Why not have two columns at the top of the page, one UK and the other foreign?
Does that makes sense?
Obama’s current line is that, once he’s the nominee, he will sit down and “work something out” on public financing with McCain. I imagine any potential deal won’t be simply accepting public finance for both campaigns, as that would mean McCain has an advantage, because the RNC has so much more money than the DNC.
Incidentally, this whole resistance to campaign finance in a sham. Since when should organisations have the right to fund a candidate? Democracy is based around individual rights - giving corporations influence is watering down democracy.
Why early Democrat returns spell potential danger for the GOP in November and possibly beyond.
http://www.statesman.com/opinion/content/editorial/stories/02/0225garcia_edit.html
Peter the Punter @ 20.
Yes, you’re guilty as charged. Two weeks in ConHome.
Send the prisioner down!
22. EDW - “… one UK and the other foreign?”
And under which column does Scottish politics come?
25 Isn’t that “cruel and unusual punishment”?
26
Tribal!
19 Sad. Someone who can run a campaign calling a man who was deprived of three limbs in the service of his Country unpatriotic really needs to be beaten. No chance at all an Obama inspired surge in turnout in the Black vote in Georgia in November could upset the applecart
24 - I don’t think this means that much. The higher Dem turnout in early states and on ST were significant in showing an enthusiasm gap. Now we are not comparing like-with-like as the GOP race is virtually over whereas the Dem race has (some) life left in it.
New poll by Muhlenberg College for Pennsylvania -
Clinton 43% - Obama 31%.
Much in line with recent polling showing a declining Clinton lead.
23 See that Hilary’s, sorry not Hilary’s but a perfectly independent group of guys only interested in what’s best for the USofA, the American Leadership Campaign is coming under scrutiny for perhaps not quite fitting the objectives of a Tax Code 527 organisation.
Its a good political point for Obama anyway - Clinton goes to 100 big donors versus Obama’s million plus of small ones.
29 - “No chance at all an Obama inspired surge in turnout in the Black vote in Georgia in November could upset the applecart” - Maybe, but it’d be a big, big upset… having said that somtimes a challenger initally seen as not being credible can rise to the challenge with funding and a fair wind (worked for plenty of Republicans in ‘94 and plenty of Dems in ‘06) so you can never be totally sure.
31 - Uni poll… then again in line with Clinton’s decline in PA as you say.
Ben @ 33.
I haven’t a link yet and am unaware of their reputation. They haven’t polled the state in the past six months as far as I can tell.
African-American voting and registration is already comprable with White voting (even though African-American voters tend to go be much poorer), and Kerry already got 90% of the AA vote in 2004. Obama might do a little better in South than he would have done but saying that he will take Georgia or Texas because of AA voting is just not supported by the facts.
33 What has been the average black GA turnout. I’m not sure how they divide the Senate Seats is it like us geographical West/North etc or a simple the whole State for both
29, 33 - The unknown is whether a Black man standing for President results in higher white turnout in the South to vote against him. While that will happen to an extent it is probably outweighed by antipathy to McCain, and a much higher increase in Black turnout. One Senate race to watch is Mississippi-B. Trent Lott stepped down and was replaced by Roger Wicker who will now face former-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in November. There have been 2 polls that I have seen. One had the Democrat ahead. The other had him behind but massively underrepresented Black voters (9% in the poll vs. 34% in 2004). The Democrat is a white conservative, who supported the display of the 10 Commandments on State property while Governor. Higher Black turnout would leave him needing c.25-30% of the White vote to win. Certainly a possibility.
35 I was asking could that happen not saying that it will happen idiot
36 Senate races are for the whole state
Can I add my voice to those calling for one thread only.
I strongly dislike blogs with several threads - you don’t quite know who is talking to who, you miss out on backchat and new themes, its just a lot of unnecessary stress.
Yes this blog goes OffTopic at the drop of a hat, and I’m probably one of the worst culprits - but still, if we go multithread I’d say sveveral of pb.com’s most distinct advantages would be gone.
For instance, I think one of the reasons pb.com feels like a community, for all its spleen and occasional venom, is that you always know just who said what to whom, by going over the one thread.
I reckon that keeps us inline, to a certain extent.
Also if the thread were so narrowly defined - this one about London, this one about the US, etc - we might feel more inhibited from from wandering into intriguing new areas, which is another of pb’s advantages.
Apart from that I think it’s a great idea.
But in the end, of course, it is Mike’s site.
One thread/multi-thread discussion - don’t change a damn thing. You’re lovely just the way you are…
37 - Good point, MS isnt getting much attention right now although it has one of the largest african-american electorates in the country a very high Black turnout (almost certain with Obama at the top of the ticket) would be a massive boost for Musgrove… although it’s still a very Republican state, very surprised the DSCC couldnt get Mike (not Micheal!) Moore to run.
42 Yes Michael Moore running in Mississpi would have been interesting
Shadsy - you asked if there were any other candidates for VP who should be added to your already-excellent list. I’d include Ed Rendell (Gov Pennsylvania) on the same terms as Ted Strickland, though he’s more likely for a Cabinet post, but otherwise I think you’ve got every other sensible candidate.
40 - and one more thing about multi-threading is that you forget what thread you’re on anyway and end up having to post twice to get it in the right thread.
40 - And, as always, the previous thread has now completely tapered off. Unum ex pluribus, say I.
And at the moment it is much easier knowing to find all the “topical posts”. If you want to find out reaction to PMQs as it happens, for example, or some other live event, then you simply have to find the thread which was “live” at the time of broadcast.
It’s hard enough keeping up with what’s been said if you’re at work all day, without having to jump around on several threads.
Regularly you might be involved in some deep debate about something whilst keeping one eye on what is being said on, say, any questions. If you want to post about both then you will do it on the same thread - which causes all sort of problems if you are debating on an ‘old’ thread.
46. Quite. Multithreading is like having a wedding party in several different rooms, if not several different houses.
A recipe for confusion, stress, resentment, bewilderment, and corrosively 2nd hand gossip.
OK, that sounds like pb.com anyway, but it would get a lot worse with two or three threads on the go at one time.
46 - yep it’s interesting that it’s rare that debates get carried from one thread to another. I guess that is the challenge for Mike in not introducing new threads too hastily before the previous thread has died completely.
And on the other hand if a thread has gone completely off-topic (and off-topical), say into an argument about holocaust denial
,then Mike can put up a new thread and the argument will die rapidly.
48 - Certainly in the current format where threads are started by Mike, who essentially decides what they are intended to be about.
Forums where anyone can start their own thread, thereby making going off-topic superfluous are completely different.
PB.com as it stands is best suited to ’single-threading’. That is why it happens. If you want multi-threading then it would require a complete overhaul of the site. IMO.
I also think this threading problem has only arisen recently, when the US primary race has become so interesting its taken the focus off UK politics - to the annoyance of some punters. These punters then want their own UK thread, and fair enough maybe.
But this problem won’t be for ever. Indeed it probably won’t last beyond March 4th. I therefore suggest, ever so ‘umbly, that we carry on as we are now. With one thread at a time.
But if the problem persists after March 4th then maybe we can find some creative compromise.
And on that note I’m going to watch the lamentable remake of Sleuth.
New Rasmussen presidential tracker for New Mexico -
McCain 50% - Clinton 38%.
McCain 44% - Obama 44%.
Yet another awful poll for Hillary.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/new_mexico_presidential_election
OT Cyprus presidental elections-second round.
It looks as Communist Dimitris Christofias has won the second round over former foreign minister Ioannis Kasoulides with around 53% of votes casted. Turnout was over 90%.
44 & 53 Clegg’s Target list in Wales. You think seems ambitious:
‘Declaring it is “time to reawaken the dragon”, he set his party the challenge of doubling its number of seats to eight. He believes the party can win in Newport East, Swansea West, Cardiff South, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
He is *not* black, he is 50/50 he is no more black then white, genetically. Culturally he is about 95% white, and has little if anything in common with ‘african americans’, of which he shares no racial links, cultural links or economic ones.
53. Obviously some mistake. A Communist beating a centre-right candidate in a modern European country?
44. Thankyou Morus. I shall add him forthwith.
55, apart from the fact that he is married to one!
I would banish PtP to the Server Upgrade Maintenance thread for a minimum of one week.
I agree that it is only polite to keep on thread for at least the first dozen posts. But I’m a single thread man myself. As some else previously alluded, one of the many joys of this site is it’s ability to break news immediately. This aspect would be diluted with multiple threads. And personally I enjoy the interweaving of topics on a single thread.
Presumably Icarus’ son would be in favour of multiple threads?
SimonStClare @ 58.
If he married a donkey it wouldn’t make him an ass!!
58. So am I, it doesnt make me black.
Ha Ha, I was thinking more along the lines of “cultural links”
60, err no but probably unelectable.
62 “…Err no but probably unelectable.”
Nonsense, Simon. Do we not have an ass in The White House now?
No comment
Exit polls from Hamburg
ZDF: CDU 43 SPD 34 Greens 9.5 Linke 6.5 FDP 5
ARD: CDU 42.5 SPD 34 Greens 9.5 Linke 6.5 FDP 5
The end of the writers’ strike in Hollywood has at least improved the quality of the humo(u)r on the Primary elections.
“Bill Clinton sent Hillary 12 red roses for Valentine’s day. Unfortunately 7 were already pledged to Michelle Obama”.
54 - Someone get me a pipe of whatever it is Nick Cleg is smoking! If he won any one of those four seats it would be a pretty big upset. He’s more likely to lose a seat like Ceredigion than take any of them except maybe Swansea West.
I know we talked about where they should focus, and these are correct foci for the LDs (though Newport West could be a better bet than Newport East), but this is the manifest error that Clegg has made - he has tied the assessment of his leadership to this absurd aim of doubling the number of seats.
Not only can he not do this, but I’m not sure he should. He should concentrating on being a very small partner in Coalition Government - first Liberal in power for many years, gaining experience of government for his front-benchers, and being small enough that the faults of government can be passed off as Tory policy that the LDs were too small to oppose, but were the price paid for some of their policies being implemented.
I think they could lose 20 seats at the next election, but that should not have meant the end of Clegg - he is stupid to make LD seat-count the issue, and targets like those four seats in Wales just make him look silly.
67. “and these are correct foci for the LDs (though Newport West could be a better bet than Newport East),”
How? In 2005 they got 17.9%, last year in WAE they got 11.9%.
chelsea =
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
67.
“the faults of government can be passed off as Tory policy”
Under Brown, as under Blair, they already usually are - for indeed they usually are.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/24/wuspols124.xml
Ralph Nadar joins US Pres race?
Who?
71. Ralph Nadar joins US Pres race? Who?
He did more to help George W Bush to win in 2000 than any other living American.
Further to Keiran’s post @ 13 the full details to the new Des Moines Register poll for Iowa is below -
McCain 49% - Clinton 40%.
McCain 36% - Obama 53%.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080224/NEWS09/802240333
68 - I’m not sure I’d compare the WAE v GE given that turnout was surely pretty low in the former, but it was not a quantitative assessment - I wouldn’t dare argue with you on that score!
It was a reprise of mine and Punter’s expectation that the massive new housebuilding project between Cardiff and Newport (aimed at first-time buyers in professional jobs commuting into Cardiff) would favour a LD demographic (too lefty for the Tories, fed up with Labour), and that Newport West would be a really good place for ground work. I don’t think Clegg will ever gain too many seats off uniform swing - it’s got to be tight locally-focussed campaigns to win seats if you’re a LD, and taking advantage of local conditions. Having said that, I didn’t look at the numbers closely, and of course bow to your superior knowledge even of my own back yard!
67. So your opinion is that, were Parliament to be hung, the LDs would do better with 30 odd MPs than 60+, on the grounds that they wouldn’t seem important enough to be blamed for Tory policy? That’s not a serious position. The LDs should be fighting for more seats. If that’s not possible this election, so be it, and so much the worse for Clegg if he carries the can, but the LDs will not benefit from being the cute little 3rd party coalition member. They will only be effective in a coalition if they can credibly threaten to leave it.
75: LDs = ‘cute little 3rd party coalition member’
HEHEHEHEHE
Won’t be needed as Camo will win 350 min
Well Done Cyprus
72. Thanks.
Was reading up abit. Ralph ‘Nadir’ for Dems it seems.
I’m actually enjoying the multi-thread scenario. It means if I want to read about US politics and latest developments I only have to trawl through the comments of the US threads.
And, would you credit it, those very threads are not filled with the usual trolls, rampers and astroturfers… which makes the site even more enjoyable!
54 and 67, there is a real tactical dilemna for the LDs. Life is going to be tougher at the next GE than 2001 because
1) there is no Blair/Iraq issue.
2) The Conservatives are in much better shape.
3) The LDs have lost ground in Scotland.
4) They have lost members and councillors since 2005.
The LDs have been better than the other two at focusing their limited resources. In a period where they will have to fight hard to keep their present MPs, to aim for another 40 to 60 more requires resources to be diverted from retention.
Aiming for more could mean ending up with even fewer, a 15 nett loss turning into 25 down.
74 Interesting but I think the necessary condition for the LDs to breakthrough the disappearance of a resistant local Tory party is not there. Although it is far wealthier a key to why the LDs are for instance looking South rather than north Cardiff is the existence of a strong Tory chokehold. Although conditions and demographics much less promising for the Tories in Newport West I think a similar thing prevails meaning Newport East where the Tories are no threat makes it a a better bet
The LDs may have lost some ground in Scotland - but in a worst case scenario will only drop about two seats.
74. yes, the turnout was lower in the in WA elections. 2007 WAE: 40.1%. 2005 GE: 59.3%.
I would have thought that the higher turnout would have helped Labour in a GE..but it was a general thought, not a specific one for Newport.
I agree with your “locally-focussed campaigns” thing…but if they are targetting Newport East now, I think they wouldn’t have much resources for a similar campaign for Newport West at the same time for 2009/10. If they go for both, they can risk to spread resources and going up in both places without being close enough.
Naturally I was thinking just to next GE. The GEs after that one are another thing and long term demographic changes as the ones you mentioned can change everything. I think that in NW they would need more than one GE to coming close.
Another point may be the “too lefty for the Tories, fed up with Labour” which is right for the current political situation. But it can change in the mid term future: Labour will sooner or later be ousted from national government.
75 Not quite my position. I think with between 70 and 120 members (as Clegg would like), they never stand a chance of getting invited into Coalition, because they would comprise between 20 and 35% of the Govenment’s voting block, and would have a large gun to the head of the PM. I think either Labour or the Tories would choose to operate as a minority government/coalition with the Nationalists if the LDs were that big a bloc in the Commons.
I think there will be a swing away from the Lib Dems share in 2005 (because it is close between Labour and the Tories, Blair has gone, Iraq is less of an issue now, and the election is competitive this time), and that they will lose seats, perhaps more than 20 seats if unlucky.
Given those political realities, Clegg should not choose to define success under his leadership by the number of seats won at the next GE, because he will fail. He should set different goals for his party, which are achievable and worthwhile: namely, being in government and enacting policy through legislation.
If it was a straight choice, of course he would prefer 120 MPs to being a minor coalition partner, but I don’t think he has that choice - he should be focussing on the virtues of the latter, because he can achieve them. That was what I meant by ‘concentrating’ in my post at 67, though I accept that I was not entirely clear.
From what i have heard, the low key, personal, principled and genuine McCain is much more persuasive than the big, Tv Advertising, negative McCain anyway. The lack of money for advertising, would decrease the exposure for McCain, but might give him the unintended benefit of a more persuasive message.
Has there been any research done into the actual effect on voters of advertising?
76 Why not investigate at your local bookies the odds against the Tories leaping from a notional 213 to 350-I’d give 50/1 minimum
82, yes and the LDs will have to adopt a retention strategy in Scotland to keep the losses down to 2.
78. By the way, Sally.
As someone who’s left leaning, i find Balls, repulsive. He is an arrogant technocrat who wrongly believes that he is extremely successful at media presentation and deserves power without doing anything positive himself. A clear example of why people have got fed up of labour.
83 see 81 i think you totally right. They’ve made their choice on Newport East now. Even if they suddenly agreed with Morus they cannot change strategy now. Too much has been put into Newport East and the Tories have too big a start on them now in Newport West for the next election.
84 See 81
87 - Where do you think is vulnerable? I am not even counting D and East Fife as that was not won at the last GE.
So what is vulnerable? Argyll and Bute? Roxburgh etc?
Or the gains from Labour? Most of the current LD Scottish seats were held even in 1992. When it comes to the next GE, I can’t see the SNP doing quite so well as they are now.
90. “Or the gains from Labour?”
Swinson’s seat may, I stress may, be vulnerable as the LDs didn’t perform well last year at Holyrood level. Danny Alexander should be ok. I expect Labour to fall further and SNP to raise in Inverness and possibily getting second place.
90 Quite. If Labour are going back, the LDs would have to spectacularly implode to start shipping large numbers of seats to them even not considering their unique incumbency brand. For instance anyone thinking Labour would get back Cardiff Cental is delusional
88. There is always some issue upon which all sides can unite for the sake of the nation! Seems we have found it. See you on the protest marches if he does a Brutus.
91 I think the differing Holyrood boundaries make Scotland very difficult to tell. It’ll be much easier for LDs especially to tell Nats the differing boundaries mean SNP can’t win here, only we can keep out or gain from Tories/Labour etc no matter how true it is
94 - I think Swinson’s seat is a bit of a mishmash. Was the seat that it mostly closely resembles in Holyrood the one where an Independent had previously won, but lost in 2007? Did the LDs push it hard? (I have no idea.) Swinson has a decent majority (8%) over Labour, with plenty of Tories that may be squeezed.
I fervently hope and pray Nader’s intervention does NOT have the consequences of 2000-FWIW I foresee his gaining a tiny corner of the vote a la 2004,and that one side will win,on the night from my side of the pond(UK)-I found an autobiography of Bill Clinton in a town centre ookshop today;I had the pleasure of reading his acceptance speech from the night of Tuesday 3rd November 1992-recalling that moment almost reduced me to tears,such was the emotion of that event for me
95. yes, it’s that one. The LDs didn’t perform well at East Dunbartonshire locals too. I think there was a local issue (IIRC the bin collection) which affected it. So it may not be important by 2009 as the weekly bin collection has been re-introduced after 2007 elections
Stjohn. (from previous thread). You’re certain on Daniel Day-Lewis for best actor and ‘Ratatouille’ for best animation.
‘La Vie en Rose’ for best make up and Juno for best original screenplay are almost certain.
Marion Cotillard as best actress for ‘La vie en Rose’, Roger Deakins for best cinematography for ‘Jesse James’ and Christopher Rouse as best editor for ‘The Bourne Identity’ are my favourite outsiders.
(Your wife has good taste in films-and please say hallo!)
96. The negative press Nader got from contributing to bush’s victory, i think will prevent it from happening again.
96. What Democrats don’t like to talk about is the feeble campaign that Gore’s advisors made him run, and their abysmal failure to get out their own voters in Florida.
I have just seen Nader on TV - he is much, much older than I remember him. McCain would get the Youth Vote by comparison.
Also, his “brand” is a bit old fashioned these days - it’s difficult to portray him as a radical alternative candidate now.
UKPaul. I’ve just looked at your message on the last thread but one. All reasonable choices. I’d be surprised if Tilda Swinton is chosen for ‘Michael Clayton’. A bit over dramatic for my taste but you never know.
I’d also think ‘Sweeny Todd’should get it over it over ‘There will be Blood’ for best art direction but I suppose if ‘T.W.B.B’ is short of awards they might give it to them? Also perhaps too much CGI in ‘Sweeny Todd’?
‘The Counterfeiters’ is the only one of the foreign language films I’ve seen and if it’s the best then clearly not a vintage year for foreign language films! Pity ‘The Diving Bell and the Butterfly’ wasn’t entered by the French. It would surely walk it.
What do pundits here think will happen if McCain is engulfed by scandal? Who would the convention pick/ Mrs Dale reckons it might be Charlie Crist of Florida but he’s not even an option for Betfair even for a speculative punt.
102. Roger. Have you read the book, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”?
It is my favourite book and truly remarkable.
102 - Yes, it was the cgi that made me go for TWBB. the supporting actress race is really up in the air as far as I can see, they’ve all been tipped by various sources (except Saoirse Ronan) The rules for what can be nominated for best foreign film really are crazy though.
86 patrick Why not investigate at your local bookies the odds against the Tories leaping from a notional 213 to 350-I’d give 50/1 minimum
Well the Tories getting 350 or more implies a majority of 50+
Corals obviously see it differently.
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/Default.aspx?market=42339653
If you still want to offer the 50-1 on Tories getting 350 seats or more I will gladly take you up on it.
If NR is still nationalised in two years and the Tories win that election, will they put it into administration?
105 - two of my favourite films of all time won best foreign film - both Czech - Closely Observed Trains (1965?) and Kolja (1997).
104. St John. I didn’t read it but it’s possibly my favourite film of the year. In my post I was going to suggest you see it. Most people I suggest it to are too squeamish once I give them a synopsis. (Not something that would worry a couple of medics!)
Incidentally another certainty I forgot to mention was Xavier Bardem for Best supporting actor for ‘No Country for Old men’.
On the point Mike has raised. Indeed the FEC issue of McCain withdrawing his request to use public funds for his campaign may well damage his reputation as well as his campaign (if he is forced to take public funding).
However, now that the DNC is submitting an official complaint on this, I think there is the possibility of the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot and unless Obama disassociates himself from their position and either backs McCain’s position or recommits to using public funding himself (in which case I assume McCain will do the same) it may be the Democrats who come out of this the worst.
Obama more than McCain has used the concept of a new politics yet at the first hurdle Obama flip-flops over funding and the DNC attempts to gain what many might think is an unfair advantage. So the same old politics and Obama proves that he is no better than those that have gone before. So much for a new type of politics and so much for ‘change’.
Roger, welcome back. Another of the joys of a single thread where we can all meander gracefully :). Boo to the Commie in Cyprus though - the Russians are coming!
100 I make no excuse for Gore’s poor campaigning,bad tactics,flawed psychology in how he proceeded to snatch defeat from the jaws of seemingly inevitable victory-but hey ho,that was then,now and now,and my adrenalin is really pumping at the thought of a Democratic victory on November 4th-bring it on!!
(
Smiley test!)
109 - This is the one where I disagree with majority opinion - at a push I’d give it to Casey Affleck for Jesse James, a wonderful performance in a film which I thought should have been better rewarded.
41.”One thread/multi-thread discussion - don’t change a damn thing. You’re lovely just the way you are…”
Got to agree with that.
110 - I think that you may be confusing public funding for the primaries and the General. If McCain is forced to accept public funding in the primary I would expect Obama to accept it for the General. Obama would have a funding advantage between now and the Convention of over 10-1, thereafter they would be even. Plus the $85m public financing for the General is very generous, and Obama is unlikely to raise much more if he doesn’t accept it.
108. SBS. ‘Closely Observed Trains’ was a very good film! I don’t remember seeing ‘Kolja’. I’ll look out for it.
111 John O, you may be more accurate than you think! Cyprus is the only EU country that allows Russians in without a visa - hence it is becoming more suspicious from an anti money laundering perspective.
106-I would have thought the value is 10/1 Labour overall majority
1-25 seats
This two threads malarkey just won’t work. I’ve posted two posts on entirely UK issues on the last one, but there have only been about half a dozen posts in the last 6 hours.
118 Augustus
Cyprus used to be the natural location for holding companies investing in the region, notably into the Emirates and other Middle East countries. Then a lot of suspect Russian money flowed in and it became a lot less acceptable.
Like just about everyone else who has commented so far, my prefrence is for a single thread on PB.com, even if this means that some of my best jokes are missed by many as we inexorably pass from one thread to another (eg my posts numbered 313 & 318 in response to Harry’s 275 on the “It’s all over - Barack’s won” thread yesterday).
117. I liked Closely Observed Trains as well.
OT: Hillary’s lead in Ohio now less than 5%. Even I’m pessimistic about her chances (although they’ve got to be better than the 15% on Intrade).
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/24/clintons-ohio-leads-falls-to-below-5/
was at Wembley - simply magic - Woodgate the hero - two hours of marking Drogba (and scoring winning goal) is a feat of physical endurance one can only marvel at - McCain-Obama will be closer than received wisdom I think - got Obama at 8.2 to get the Presidency on Spreadfair the morning after SuperTuesday, and would be financially thrilled (and for other reasons) if he got it, but McCain is a hell of a guy, and an interesting politician - think we will need the smoke to clear after the nominations before sensible punting can start, whatever the match ups say now
124 It’s certainly true that McCain was the only GOP candidate with any chance of victory. Any of the others would have faced annihilation I think. But it’s still mighty tough for him against Obama. If he does it I think it will be in large measure to future outside events
123) Matthew JCG Partridge
Surely she’s not out of the race yet?! Personally I rate her no bigger than 5/2
On the whole I’d vote for single threads too - easier to glance through quickly, which is all i’ve usually time for.
A couple of updates on foreign elections (O/T whichever thread I use so may as well do it here):
Hamburg - now clear that the FDP (Liberals) have been knocked out, so the Land parliament is just CDU 42/SPD 34/Greens 9.4/Left 6.5. Consolation prizes all round. The CDU remain largest party and get to choose Greens or SPD as partners, but lost over a tenth of thier vote. The SPD gained 3.6% despite controversy over suggestions by the party chairman that they might look at a bit of cooperation with the Left Party. The Greens lost ground to the Left but remained the third largest. And the Left were just chuffed to get in easily, in another west German Land. Main strategic point is that the Left are clearly here to stay, so either the SPD need to consider cooperation with them (which could lose moderate voters) or Grand Coalitions or odd alliances (e.g. CDU-Greens) will become the norm.
The Communist in Cyprus won fairly comfortably (53-46). He’s a New Labour sort of leftist - private business, no problem, etc. - and more significantly opposed to sectarianism and happy to talk to the Turkish side. AKEL have traditionnally been kingmakers in Cyprus rather than trying to win themselves, but the unpopularity of the outgoing president gave an opening. See http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=azNc_RAdUVzI&refer=europe
Superb piece of writing in the NY Times which analyses how the wheels came off the Clinton campaign. A must-read for anyone still with money on Clinton:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/24/opinion/24rich.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
127 - Communists have also retained the Presidency in Cuba. A man called Castro was confirmed as the new President today. Is he New Labour?
129 “Is he New Labour?”
If not, the Cubans have clearly learnt all they need to know about nepotism and cronyism from them…
127 - If a Communist has got “no problem” with private business, then why’s he calling himself a Communist?
131. Historical reasons? Same reasons Labour have kept their old name. When they don’t really represent labour anymore.
Was the Cuban election above board?
I hear those flying chad thingies can cause absolute havoc.
This is completely brilliant - watch and enjoy.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid988092926/bctid1377935786
Socialist Nepotism is the new Monarchy & Aristocracy.
When Stephen Kinnock applied for the jobof Head of the British Council in Russia, I wonder if the interviewer asked, is your father the Head of the British Council.
Come to think of it, Neil Kinnock probably interviewed Stephen Kinnock. Is it possible he knew he was his son??
134 Wicked, Mike!
134
I pity poor ol’ Bill when she finally loses, she will open a can of whoopxxxx on him
134- Mike- loved the film “Election” in the first place. Great clip
131: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akel - they are not as ‘reformed’ as e.g. the Italian counterpart, but still visibly in the real world, unlike say the North Koreans. The pattern is similar to the CP (Marxist-Leninist) which holds power in West Bengal and Kerala in India, and is seen as fairly helpful to business because it’s pragmatic, non-sectarian and uncorrupt.
O/T (apologies) Benedict Brogan on Silence and the Speaker
And Iain Dale’s Top 10 Runners & Riders to Succeed Michael Martin
132 - “Labour” is just a name, whatever its origins. It would be different if they were called the Socialist Party. Communism is an ideology.
131. “If a Communist has got “no problem” with private business, then why’s he calling himself a Communist?”
maybe because otherwise they would need to change the party’s logo?
http://www.akel.org.cy/
(it would really need a restyling though)
134 - ‘Election’ is a great film, Witherspoon totally steals the whole thing of course, but still a damn good film.
136 Well Tim Montgomerie believes he wants to surrender to UBL. What can you say when someone believes that
135 - The trouble these days is that EVERYTHING is about Connections. Familial and political connections are things to be highlighted in bold on your CV, because companies know that they are the short cut to getting decisions made in their favour.
139. “they are not as ‘reformed’ as e.g. the Italian counterpart”
If Italian former PCIers (?) continue to refor themself, they would manage to practically swing over the whole political spectrum.
141 - but then AKEL is the Progressive Party of Working People, not too different from being called “Labour”. OK, like Andrea said, the hammer and sickle on the logo is a bit different…
147 - so i’m confused now. Is he a Communist, or a “former-Communist”?
139 Well West Bengal is uncorrupt as long as you are not a peasant in Nandigram protesting against the enlightened Communists setting up a Special Economic Zone and taking your land. Then they send in the armed ‘cadres’ accompanying police and kill, rape, beat and burn your homes and otherwise “drive out the opposition and restore order”.
144 - Their trying to sell the “Nickleback” as the “Biggest Band in the World Right Now” …what you going to do? Although ConHome has been militantly anti-Obama, while promoting the likes of Giuliani and Romney which is just a bit perplexing.
135- A man named bolted hores- we have suffered elitism/ nepotism from toffs for centuries. Look how inbred the royals have become. At least Labour are changing the gene pool- some Welsh working class gingers. Good luck to them.
148. In the Euro Parliament they sit in the group with Italian Communists, PCF, Spain’s IU, some little leftist nordic parties, Greek Synaspismos, Greek Communists, Communists from Portugal, Czech PCBM, Sinn Fein and a few others.
149. Sounds like they are modelling themselves on the Chinese communist party.
150 Sorry not sure what you mean
145- as opposed to when? Of course Cameron and Osborne got to their positions on merit.
151
You are Bernard Manning and I claim my £5
152- great sounding group- only wished they ruled the damn thing.
151 If the Labour inner circle want to be the new monarchy, they should have the courage to be honest.
Otherwise, they shall be hounded at every opportunity and arrested when they lose control of the Police.
And good luck to them
145. Times have changed then. When I first started applying for jobs (in 82/83) I got fewer knockbacks when I didn’t mention my interest in politics.
Though when I successfully applied for a job in 1997, they said the fact I was standing for parliament (my 2nd interview was on election day!) made my CV stand out.
(I keep my politics quiet at my current job - our parent company is US-owned. Apparently, if I read the small print in my contract correctly, I am not allowed to go on holiday to Cuba and I must not take part in any boycott of Israel.)
156- apart from the fact that Mr Manning was a raging Tory.
And by the way what is wrong to in saying that we have been ruled by toffs for centuries. Statement of fact. Indeed toff rule is such a great formula for electoral success that the Tories are desperately trying to reclaim their old characteristics to get their greasy, dirty paws back on power. Look no further than Mssrs Cameron and Gideon.
Single threads are best
PS LDs =
:lol: 
160. Hmm, what proportion of Cabinet ministers over the past two decades have been from the aristocracy? I doubt more than, say, one in ten.
http://theliberaloc.com/2007/08/31/martin-resigns-finally/
Is this the news you have all been waiting for?