PB - More than just a website…?
February 25th, 2008
Peter the Punter looks at possible new developments (1)
The day after Super Tuesday, Mike and small group of us PB camp followers met in a café near Leicester Square and despite suffering election night fatigue, alleviated only slightly by some rather nice red wine, a number of ideas emerged, the more sensible of which Mike asked me to mention here.
Social Events PB Parties have proved very popular and been well supported. Naturally we are not limited to one a year and we propose another in early summer, probably at the National Liberal Club again, especially if we can book the terrace overlooking the Embankment. Technically I suppose PB resides in cyberspace but the NLC has become its unofficial home on earth and for very good reason. Not only is it a superb building but it provides ideal accommodation and sustenance at reasonable prices. We will probably be using it increasingly, and not just for parties.
We would like to organise some smaller get-togethers: perhaps a dinner, or simply drinks. Again, the NLC suggests itself as a suitable venue but there are plenty of alternatives. These are easily arranged and need not necessarily involve Mike or me, but if people want to use me as a conduit, I am happy to assist. It would be nice if some of these events could take place out of London, but it would need somebody local to arrange them and so far nobody has stepped forward.
We also thought there might be a demand for some small seminars and talks. The PB community includes a number of journalists, pollsters, MPs, media people and the like who I am sure could be prevailed upon to offer their services at a modest cost. Again, the NLC or possibly the House of Commons suggest themselves as venues. Such events could easily be combined with suitable sustenance and I am sure would be very enjoyable.
On the betting front, some will recall that I promised in an earlier thread to set up a syndicate that would place hypothetical bets and win a notional £20,000. Morus quickly pointed out the flaw. A bet simply isn’t real unless it’s for real money. We have decided therefore to see if we can find about, say, ten people willing to pool their money to get this venture off the ground. Results would be open for all on PB to see, though obviously only syndicate members would have access to the funds and the authority to bet with them.
Mike and I will be very interested to hear everybody’s views. We can then we can make a few announcements once we have gauged the response.
Finally, we haven’t forgotten about revamping Formal Wagers Corner. This has been delayed by some minor technical hitches.
And even more finally, we have been kicking around an idea to promote PB in the wider media, but I’ll deal with that in another htread thread.
Peter the Punter (Peter Smith)
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Sorry, to nit pick, but you’ve written “htread” not “thread.”
Some nice ideas, but i’d not be a fan of going to events. I’d like a podcast or something similar though.
Caption Picture - Is that Crimewatch UK’s ‘Most Wanted’ !!
PS … I still think that’s Simon Heffer (front left) …. although he’s certainly not ‘Most Wanted’ especially by the Conservative party !!
PB is a unique site and I am pleased to see it’s future is being planned with the aid of red wine and a cafe atmosphere
All I would ask is that long time posters are given first dibs on the shares at inevitable public offering!
Sorry to go O/T so early
McCain shows views on various issues:
http://www.bigthink.com/user/john-mccain
I don’t know if they’ll frighten the enemy, but by God! they certainly frighten me.
For those of you who bet on the Oscars, the Daily Mash places it all in perspective.
http://tinyurl.com/3abhm8
PtP. Some great ideas. I would be keen to have a share in the betting pool. The potential problem of course is whether we could get on to decent money.
New Public Policy Poll for Ohio -
Clinton 50% - Obama 46%.
McCain 55% - Huckabee 30%.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Ohio_Release_022508.pdf
Not quite as visually appealing I have to say as The Beatles famous “Sgt Pepper” album cover but good for putting names to faces- sure I spotted our brave Nick Palmer MP lurking at the rear on the right (not politically speaking of course!) - am I right Nick?
8. I’ve been arguing for a while that Ohio is a better bet for Obama than Texas. The polling over the last week suggests Obama has hit a ceiling in the lonestar state and that is probably due to concrete support for Clinton among Hispanics. If the polls are being weighted badly, and there is an unprecedented Hispanic turnout, she might pull out a popular vote win there. By contrast, there is little identity politics in Ohio, so poor demographic weighting in polls shouldn’t be a problem (or at least not a problem for Obama) and he is now only four points behind with a couple of weeks to go.
9. There didn’t seem to be much of an effort at arranging by height! You can barely see the huddle of vertically challenged at the centre-rear!
Socrates @ 10.
The polling shows Obama continuing to narrow the gap in both states. Indeed in Texas some polls now show Obama ahead. Also remember the hybrid Primary/Caucus and Disrict advantage that Obama has in Texas. See the link in my post @ 72 on the previous thread.
In short Hillary has lost!
An analysis of six aspects of the coming contest -
http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/784danym.asp
12. The districting advantage doesn’t matter to the popular vote , which is what the US media have been using to say a candidate has “won” a state. And I’m guessing that the popular vote in the primary, rather than the later caucus, or a mixture of the two will be what’s reported as the headline. A Hispanic surge should give Clinton the win in this respect.
Of course, the lack of any delegate advantage (or even a loss) means she’ll have to win Ohio and Penn by a sizable margin, which is highly unlikely to happen. But unforeseen stories can always hit the news. That’s why I wouldn’t put her below 15%.
Socrates @ 14.
If the race is close the hybrid nature of the state makes the contest more difficult to call by the media. Also the evidence of the polls is that Hispanics are not surging to Hillary but breaking slowly but steadily toward to Obama.
Great ideas put up on this thread. On the formal wagers, I’m still waiting for my fiver on the 20-1 Clinton win to be taken up from the other thread - you know who you are lol.
Socrates - I didn’t say I didn’t trust anyone. I said I didn’t trust anyone in politics. The difference is chasmic.
New Washington Post/Gallup Nomination Trackers -
Clinton 39% - Obama 51%.
McCain 61% - Huckabee 23%.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-02-25-poll-prez_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Ave it applauds the proliferating influence of politicalbetting.com and looks forward to an increasing focus on social activities tailored for working class conservatives such as beer and curry nights!
It’s interesting that ‘virtual communities’ like politicalbetting.com often ‘graduate’ to having a real life presence - I’m aware that Flickr acolytes often have ‘Flickr Meets’ and I believe that the Cossacks in the US have (presumably very angry) meets as well.
Conferences and seminars can be moneyspinners (just ask Marcus Evans,a millionaire with a penchant for the Lib Dems)but other unthought through ideas could include: dead-tree publishing and podcasts (I quite like the bloggingheads.tv format and I think there is money to be made in a Roger vs Sean version of this).
New Washington Post/Gallup Presidential Trackers -
McCain 50% - Clinton 46%.
McCain 48% - Obama 47%.
Link as 17.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/25/barackobama.hillaryclinton
Obama team complaining about circulation of ‘photo of Obama sporting a turban. Despite claims to the contrary , Hilary does seem to be getting rather desperate.
16. I was aware of that, and my points remain. If we can’t trust a candidates words at all then, logically, its impossible to say which is better.
US Presidential
Just heard a report on NPR re: the Vermont Primary. About how no one outside of Vermont has ever really given a fiddler’s you-know-what about it, and not that many Vermonters have either.
But this year there is a buzz in the Green Mountain air. Local pundits concur with national pundits, that Obama is way ahead. BTW, VT has no party registration, primary is open, and many Independents and moderate GOPers expected to vote in Dem primary for Obama. But Clinton’s local supporters remain full of fight, urging that Hillary and/or Bill fly up from Austin or Columbus to campaign in Vermont.
Great thing about this story for me, is that it illustrates just how inclusive the 2008 presidential nomination process has been. With states that rarely been heard from having a say. And a very important say.
It’s messy and risky and funky. Just like the US of A.
22. Can I recommend the words of Jesus (or attributed to him)? ‘Know them by their fruit’. Takes time, but the ones I trust in politics are the ones who have a proven track record, not the new kids on the block who promise the earth. It’s all to do with human nature, and the corruption of power.
New CNN/ORC poll for Texas -
Clinton 46% - Obama 50%.
McCain 56% - Huckabee 31%.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/25/texas.poll/index.html
Q: How many different ways can you say you are in favour of Clinton over Obama?
A: Ask Richard
In 1936 vermont was one of the only two states (the other was Maine) not to vote for FDR and resulted in the (in)famous quip “As goes Maine so goes Vermont”. One of the FDR Cabinet members said that there should be signs erected on the approach to Vermont saying “You are now leaving the United States”.
How things reverse when these are now both as safe for the Democratics whilst the one time Democratic strongholds of Georgia and Mississippi are for the Republicans.
Richard @ 106) Previous thread.
Just because I think that Hillary’s real odds are 20-1, it doesn’t mean I want to give you those odds given the arbitrage! This is a betting discussion site, not a charity!
24. Obama is in his mid-40s. Plenty of “fruit” there to judge him by. Plus, as I have the belief that you can only have succeeded in DC for the last twenty years if you are the sort of politician I dislike, then going for a new kid is more likely to get someone into power who I do like. I appreciate that I might not get the Earth I’ve been promised, but even if he only delivers Denmark it’ll be an improvement over the status quo.
There will be a new SUSA poll for Texas released at 4am GMT. SUSA indicate that one in four Democrat ballots have been cast and there will be news on that.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/02/25/newest-tx-democratic-primary-poll-to-be-released/
Betting pool: I’m in.
29 - well said Soc.
New thread - Tories take 11% lead with ComRes
I’m surprised nobody has sought to close this site down yet due to a patent lack of women. If it weren’t for Andrea i don’t know what we’d do!
Hello everyone, it’s Alexander Drake here, now adopting a nom de plume for future posts. I think the ideas put forward by Mike, PtP and the merry crew. Although the tyranny of distance conspires against me, in the spirit of the obviously successful gatherings at the NLC, I’d be delighted to treat PBers to refreshments by the harbour if they pass through Sydney.
28. and 29. lol
26. Not sure I’m in favour of Clinton. I personally like the idea of an Obama Presidency much more than a Clinton one. I think he’d offer a lot and be a remarkable breath of fresh air. As I mentioned previously, her politics give me the willies and if ever there was someone I wouldn’t trust it would be the Clintons.
However, I’m trying to distance my desire from what I actually think is happening and on that score I’m just not convinced Hillary is quite yet as out of it as some on here have suggested …
A betting syndicate? Count me in. A sub-set of pbc members more interested in betting than abstruse political issues appeals.
Conversely, when I read about what might happen in ward X or Y, I hurry by….
Has pb.c ever really been only a website?
I’m in for the pool as well, although I do wonder whether we might face the same problem we did with the favourability index where it turned out we were the market for the most part.
39 - hmmm… a good point.
Furthermore, I wonder whether the corresponding costs (in time and energy) in getting agreement would outweigh the benefits of a wider expert base on which to base decisions.
Still, it’s a fun idea and will be interesting to follow or be a part of!
Thanks everybody for all your comments, which are duly noted.
It seems to be a general thumbs up so I guess we just go ahead and organise things.
Richard (19) - The Podcast idea is very interesting but you’ll have to explain to me exactly how it works, and also if possible elaborate on your other ideas. Can you drop me an email? arklebar@talktalk.net
StJohn/David Kendrick/Jan from Norway/Paul M - Your interest in the syndicate is noted and we will definitely go ahead soon. There is another related matter in the pipeline which will be announced very soon and after that’s published, I’ll start putting the syndicate together.
Paul M - I think I have your email address but just in case I am confusing you with somebody else, please drop me a line to confirm.
I note your comments about the Brandindex problems but this is different. We would for the most part be investing in the main markets, where liquidity is fine.
More anon and thanks again everybody.
Put me down for the pool please. I must get to an event some time.
41 - Hi Peter, apols for the late message, hope you get it. My thoughts are:
- Social Meets, these are generally good and well worth continuing. I’m not going to complain about the NLC as a location either. How often they occur is a question of judgement - frequently enough that people can continue building friendships and acquantences, but not so often that the numbers go down ‘I can’t be bothered this month, I’ll go next instead’ etc.
- The seminar / podcast of same sounds very interesting, if a bit complex to organise. I would think if you incorporated these into the social events then that would potentially be the best way forward - ie. Meet at 6pm for a 30min lecture by Peter the Punter for a betting seminar, with 30mins of structured questions afterwards, and then a free for all social from 7pm, so others can join then if they are less keen.
-As for the betting syndicate - I’d be interested in potentially providing some funds, and taking a reduced portion of the profits due to not doing any work. I appreciate this is an added complication and thus might not be helpful, but I would be thinking of it like an exotic fund investment, manager takes 25% of profits, I get 75% for providing funds. Feel free to email me for details, thoughts etc.
In general - thanks for all you, Mike and others do to keep the site going so well, and being a great community - finding ways to expand and develop that without losing the elements that make it great is the key, and don’t ever lose the focus - Betting on Political events! ;-0
Well, if Lennon’s in, then I’m in.
Hi Peter, exciting stuff. On the seminar front I can imagine this going down well at the respective party conferences. I can imagine Mike and Rod Crosby doing a roaring trade at the Lib Dem conference explaining the inevitability of a hung parliament! Perhaps to coincide with these, a major bookmaker could introduce some political party specials to whet the appetite of the punters/activists.
I think there’s also a serious lecture in Mike about the history and relationship between betting and politics - how journalists use the favourite/outsider, the money that can alter high profile markets etc. Famous outsiders that have won etc. Basically animating the book alone and then taking questions would be interesting.
Lots of scope for future ideas to be tested and developed. Good times.
43 Thanks Lennon. You’re definitely in the pool. You would in effect be a sleeping partner but I don’t see that we would need adjust your share of profits or losses. You would have the same rights and responsibilities as everybody else.
Anyway, we can work out the detail later, but you points all noted with thanks.
Btw, I was speaking the other day to somebody who knew Mike in his Betfair days, just about the time he started PB. He greatly admires the site and commented that it was “…the most focused site on the web.” He’s got a point, hasn’t he?
44 Welcome aboard, Augustus.
See you soon.
34.There are a few of us around on the site, but Andrea (Italian) is not one of us.
42 Peter Welch - Noted with thanks. Not sure if I have your email address so can you please send me one?
arklebar@talktalk.net
Thanks
45 Thanks Henry, and I have your email.
I would be very keep to join a syndicate in view of the fact that I dont have the time to follow all developments. pls contact me with details.
I am in for the pool as well as long as a place does not cost too much
52 Well done Benedict!
I was going to drop you a line anyway, since you missed out on the TTF! You saved me the bother.
51 Anon
Please send me an email.
arklebar@talktalk.net
Thanks
Re 53, Peter, I was going to drop you a line as well! Just don’t leave me out this time
PTP,
Put me down as well.
What areas of outside of London do people live? Is there are lot of Pber in Yorkshire or the Midlands for example? Gives a guide to were an event outside of London should be held.
The picture is very revealing, showing how PB is very much a boys’
game! While the girls go in for practical politics the boys like the gambling, drinking and male bonding. Very similar gender gap as with football.
Beth
I could be interested in the syndicate too. (And parties, obviously). Drop me a line about it if you can.
Beth makes a useful point - can we broaden out the appeal of these events somehow? How about a trip to the races at Windsor one evening this summer?