Do ICM’s Mayoral numbers tell us anything?
February 26th, 2008
Why don’t Ken’s voters back him on the congestion charge?
By far and away the biggest political betting event in the UK this year is the London Mayoral election on May 1st. Five million people will be able to vote and the outcome will set the scene for the coming general election.
But as we’ve noted before - there has been almost no polling data on which to make predictions. We’ve had just one survey in 2008 and only 240 people expressed an opinion.
But details of another survey have just come out. It’s a private poll from ICM that was taken in January and seeks to measure response to what has become Ken Livingstone flag-policy, the London Congestion Charge and the plans to increase the daily fee to £25 for the most gas-guzzling cars. This might be clutching at straws but in a poll starved environment any data might be useful.
What could be significant is that ICM found that a majority of 2004 Livingstone voters were opposed to what has become his signature policy. If his own supporters won’t back him on this what does it say for his chances in May?
The Livingstone voters of 2004 think, by 55% to 38%, that the basic congestion charge of £8 is unfair. On the proposed £25 daily charge for gas-guzzlers 65% of Ken’s supporters four years ago thought the level was too high, 31% thought it “about right” and 2% said it was “too low”.
Yet when it comes to having to pay the charge 62% of the Ken supporters said they had never paid it, presumably because they do not take cars into central London, against just 1% who said they paid it every day.
It will be recalled that the mayor’s own congestion charge poll has become something of an issue. A week last Friday we reported on the decision of the British Polling Council to launch a formal inquiry into the refusal of Ipsos-MORI to make available the detailed data of a survey they had carried out on the issue. That is being withheld in apparent breach of the BPC’s transparency rules because the client, TfL won’t let it be published.
In contrast ICM’s full polling data was made available the day after the firm’s client, Porshe, had released some of the findings.
In the betting Ken continues to be the odds on favourite but Boris’s prices has tightened. I think this race is going to be very close and Johnson remains the value bet.
Mike Smithson
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I didn’t vote for Ken before because I thought that the Congestion Charge would not work, and would have bad side-effects. But it now appears to me to be working much better than I expected. It is because of this issue, more than anything else, that I am now seriously considering voting for Ken for the first time. The second most important reason is that Boris is not up to the job and doesn’t have proper policies.
test
Well, to tax and be popular is given to no-one. I suspect this poll simply reflects the view of the 60% of Londoners who drive that they should be able to drive where they like. If you took a poll on parking restrictions I expect you’d find they were even less popular…
In terms of the election, these results tell us nothing. How many people are going to vote against Ken because of the £25 charge? And Boris ain’t gonna scrap the basic Charge, either - though, in his shoes, I’d be tempted to offer to run a lottery with Charge exemptions (and Council Tax exemptions come to that) instead of cash prizes.
A little over 2 months to go, and despite predictions from a number on here, Boris’ campaign is still on track and has not disintegrated into a gaffe-prone farce.
The repeated problems and suggestions of impropriety have been with the Livngtone campaign.
I’d say the main thing propping up Ken’s betting position as favourite is the lack of polling data to suggest otherwise. Once there is a reputable poll showing Boris in a lead, it will accelerate and Londoners will move away from Ken quite quickly.
Off Topic, but well anyway I forgot to mention it earlier (from five threads ago):
I love the “most Americans are disenchanted” as we hear of hugely increased turnouts for primaries and hear concerns that Obamamania is going too far. He is the Screaming Lord Sutch of Presidental elections nothing more (will now go and hide from JohnLoony’s response)
What, you mean you think he’s going to be a candidate for President 39 times and then kill himself?
At this moment I can’t see why Boris isn’t favourite? Everything points to his odds being exceptional value. If it wasn’t that I believe Ken to be an outstanding tactician and Boris to be a hopeless oaf who will blow it then that’s the way I’d be betting.
In Central London it’s difficult to find anyone who supports Boris and a straw poll of taxi drivers will find it’s almost unanimous for Ken. But most of the five million voters don’t have anything to do with Central London as can be seen from the congestion charge poll.
Who in Central London doesn’t want 4×4’s to taxed out of existence if they come into the centre? Absolutely no one. Yet the poll indicates otherwise which just shows how many voters have nothing to do with Central London
I think a lot of the negative views about the Congestion Charge are based as much on where he might expand it in the future, rather than it’s existence at present. In addition the gradual feeling that it’s moving beyond its original purpose and turning into a simple money-making scheme. The usual reason why people are very suspicious of ‘environmental taxes’ (of which this wasn’t originally - hence its name), however much they might support them in principle.
I dont have the exact figures but it is often reported that the congestion charge absorbs most of the revenue in costs so it is a very ineffective tax from a revenue perspective . Congestion is not mush different now to what it was before - arguably it would be much worse without the charge but that is difficult to to prove . The westward extension may raise more tax but will it do anything for congestion - those that live within it will be much more likely to drive around within the zone
There must be a technological way to reduce the operating costs of the charge
6 - so all those taxi drivers who hand out “Back Boris” receipts are Ken fans?
6. I pay my own taxi fares so don’t get receipts but do use taxis all the time in Central London and can honestly say I have yet to speak to a single one who says they are voting for Boris.
I’ve posted this before but one said to me “Who’d vote for Boris? He’s a knob!” I was genuinely curious to know whether that was ‘Knob’ or ‘nob’ but didn’t ask.
Mike - please would you clarify exactly whose responsibility it is to publish the December polling data - is it TfL or Ipsos MORI?
If the former, then the BPC “tranparency rules” clearly don’t amount to a row of beans, if the latter then why doesn’t the pollster simply publish the data as it is required to?
Perhaps you should think long and hard before inviting Bob Worcester onto PB.com again.
Roger has often mentioned that he lives in Covent Garden. In that case his neighbours voted for Norris in 2004 on both the first and second ballots.
As for taxi drivers, they are up in arms about the Livingstone proposal to dilute “the knowledge” in the cause of political correctness - which is why so many distribute Back Boris receipts.
The survey was commissined by Porsche and IMO the phrasing and sequencing of the questions is somewhat biased. You’re first prompted to think about whether you pay it yourself, and how often. Then you’re told there’s a big increase planned for some cars, with no exemption for residents. You’re asked if that’s fair. Then you’re asked if the intentions behind it are noble or cynical. Given the default position of most voters that paying tax is unpleasant and politicians are untrustworthy, you get the sort of answers that Porsche wanted. Questions likely to elicit a favourable response, such as “Do you think the Congestion Charge helps limit congestion?” or “The Congestion Charge is partly used to subsidise bus services. Do you agree or disagree with this use of the charge?” do not figure in the survey.
Surely the poll indicates that Ken is the kind of politician who garners support even when people disagree with his policies? I’d probably attach the same label to Blair, a sense of trusting and better the devil you know, even when by 2005, few were really behind his policies and vision. And certainly to Obama.
Oh God, the Return of Roger’s Patented Taxi Driver Based Polling System.
Why don’t you go the whole hog, Roger, and ask your butler what he thinks? I might quiz my ostler this evening, or the nice little chap from Guyana who irons my cummerbunds.
Or I could ask the girls at Suzie Wong’s just before they do my happy finish. I pay all my own barfines and I can honestly say I haven’t met a teenage Cambodian go-go dancer who thinks Ken’s support for Hugo Chavez is a vote loser.
Boris is a poor politician. He will be easy to corner. He has little ability to deflect questions and cititisms. He hasn’t the key knack of answering the question he wished had been asked, rather than the one that was asked. This skill has been mastered by Ken (and TB), who could get away with lying even when everyone knew they weren’t telling the truth. Boris hasn’t this essential ’slipperiness’.
But would he make a poorer mayor than Ken? Isn’t it possible to be a better mayor than politician? There’ll be fewer funding ‘irregularities’ under Boris. And it can’t be healthy to have the same mayor for 12 years.
10. Have any of them said ‘I ‘ad that kn*b Roger in the back of my cab once’, yet?
16. Seems like the perfect opportunity for Brian Paddick.
Speaking of cabbies, there’s a great Matt cartoon in The Daily Telegraph this morning:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/core/Matt/pMattTemplate.jhtml;jsessionid=FTBNWBNESR2ADQFIQMGSFGGAVCBQWIV0
12. Peter Golds. Not Covent Garden but Soho! It might be next door but I wouldn’t live in that Norris voting shi-shi place for all the cheese in Neil’s Yard Dairy!
SeanT. I bow to your superior knowledge of Cambodian go-go dancers and if your last night’s paid for companion is hot for Boris what can I say?
As a regular user of taxis, I can confirm that 4 out of 5 London cabbies salute the gains of the Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela and defend Lee Jasper from racist smears.
The poll isn’t very helpful. Yes, the congestion charge is unfair. But as I never pay it, I support it.
Why no polling data on the London election. Even if there is no independently-commissioned poll, I would still expect KL and BJ to have private information. Why hasn’t anything been publicised or leaked? If one or other was way ahead I would expect it to be trumpeted abroad. Nothing! Silence! Does this mean it really is tight and neither side wants to give anything away.
OT (I missed the boat with the last thread): does anybody have a theory as to why the recent polls have been so divergent?
Much as I’d like to believe a 11 point Tory lead it’s just not realistic. It’s probably 5-7%, I reckon.
20. Since you first exclusive ‘Roger Cab Poll’ I have also been keen to test the anti-Boris feeling that Roger seems to find in every taxi. I use taxis a lot as well mostly between London Bridge and Kensington.
I must be very unlucky as I have not found any of Roger’s Ken supporting Cabbies. Quite a few ‘couldn’t give a ***K’ several ‘they are all as bad as each other’ and I am currently the proud owner of 3 ‘Back Boris’ receipts in that lovely shade of blue.
What does that tell us..b*gger all of course, so I suggest we leave the cabbies out of it..
On yesterday’s ComRes thread I was surprised that nobody mentioned how well the Tories did among Scottish respondents. It is the first poll in absolutely ages (a decade?) to have the Conservatives over 20% (AFAIAA).
ComRes/The Independent
22-24 Feb 2008
Sample size - Scotland = 53 (HEALTH WARNING!!)
1. Lab 31% (-8%)
2. SNP 26% (+8%)
3. Con 21% (+5%)
4. LD 15% (-8%)
oth 9% (note: very high “Others” = Greens?)
While it is “just a bit of fun”, such a UNS would see the following seats change hands (according to Baxter):
Tory gains from LD:
*Argyll and Bute
*Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
… and from Labour:
*Renfrewshire East
*Stirling
*Edinburgh South
*Dumfries and Galloway
Lab re-gain from LD:
*Dunfermline and West Fife
SNP gain from Lab:
*Dundee West
*Ochil and South Perthshire
http://www.comres.co.uk/resources/7/Political%20Polls/Political%20Poll%20Feb%2008.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
A lot of cabbies I know complain about self-important old twits wittering away in the backs of their cabs…and tell me how even saying ‘yeah that’s right mate’ to everything they say still doesn’t shut them up.
24 Several theories were put forward on the last thread for the divergent polls perhaps you should go through the posts and read them .
I have to admit that I am somewhat bemused by Ken Livingstone’s tactics. Both Johnson and Paddick have been building up momentum for ages, Ken’s campaign so far has been half-hearted. Is he trying to peak shortly before the election? It would seem a high-risk strategy if so. There will clearly be a core Livingstone vote, but there is also a certain amount of fatigue with him. I think the longer he leaves it the harder his task becomes. Obviously the campaign proper probably won’t kick off until after Easter but once that happens Johnson and Paddick have been shoring up their support for a while, and will then have even more exposure. If Livinstone is banking on a one month campaign blitz into the election it almost seems Giuliani-esque.
28. Mark you have become the sourest poster on this site, by some way. Do you eat a dozen lemons for breakfast every day?
30. Something to do with the LDs continued poor numbers even after they elect a poor mans Blair as leader ?
30 Prefer grapefruit to lemons .
31. poor man’s Cameron.
Cameron is the poor man’s Blair.
[13] In other words, it’s a “push poll”.
And yes, when we do get a proper poll on the Mayoralty, I expect Boris to be ahead (probably by about 5%) so his 6-4 looks value, if only from a “lay off later” point of view. But of course I know nothing about betting. (Failed my citizenship class in Greed, more than once…)
I don’t think Mark is at all sour. One of the most informative posters around in fact. Post 27 is ’sour’. Bitter and without wit unlike most of the other’s on the subject!
[32] Grapefruit - that’s so Lib Dem: you think it’s going to taste of something, then it does’t really, although there’s nothing to actually dislike.
Start your day the IA way: a tumbler of pineapple juice with the juice of half a freshly squeezed lime added.
More trouble for Grasper.
“A close aide of Ken Livingstone, suspended from his job after allegations of cronyism, failed to declare his chairmanship of a race-equality organisation that received thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ money.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3434502.ece
Mark Senior’s ok once you get past his hatred of Conservatives, which he thinks are still in power.
I thought Mark S. was merely pointing out where a complicated series of interlocking factual arguments could be found, as they were too difficult to summarise.
35. But what do the cabbies think? MS, sour lemon or not?
re 13 & 34. I disagree strongly with Nick here - why does the Labour tribe always rush to defend its rogues? That is what’s wrong with tribal politics when even decent people like Nick feel they have to support the Kens of this world.
It will be good to see the Ken poll on the same subject that he is keeping from us and is putting Ipsos-MORI into an impossible position
I’ll do a thread on a poll on another matter that Ken instigated where the leading question element is appalling and we can just compare.
40. Every single one of the 3,000 cabbies I used last week said they were 100% behind Mark Senior…the accusations of sourness are nothing more than a witch-hunt by the Evening Standard and as such a complete fabrication..In fact anyone who disagrees with MS must be a racist…
42. Never mind racism, what about the implied slur against lemons?
[43] And has Lee Jasper persuaded Ken to fund you, CRN?
Hmmm keen to have the taxi drivers vote are we, a group renowned for their liberal and progressive views.
I supported the idea of a London Mayor, but think the office should be revised: 1. Two terms maximum, 2. If an MP is selected to run, then must immediately resign as an MP.
As someone who worked at Marble Arch for 23 years, you couldn’t tax London car drivers enough to satisfy me.
Good Morning.
Latest SUSA Poll for Texas -
Clinton 45% - Obama 49%.
Note the larger than average state wide sample (over 1700)compared to some other state polls. Also Clinton lead among Hispanics dropping very sharply.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c6190368-049d-43a8-b5e7-d28f3a3eba96
…………………….
This will be the last post from ‘Peter Jacques’. All five contributors that were ‘Peter’ have enjoyed their time on Political Betting and wish it well in the future.
We are also pleased to advise that as we five leave another very old stager will return!
SIGNED.
Peter, Jacque, Curtis, Mike and Jeremy.
45 - I agree with point 1 but not 2. In the US you are allowed to run for a higher office without sacrificing your current one, example Senators Clinton, Obama and McCain.
26.I didn’t mention these polling figures on the previous thread, but I did point out Labour’s steadily declining support in area’s outside their rock solid heartlands which becomes further skewered by the 3 party alternative for voters. With a first time SNP administration in Holyrood enjoying an extended honeymoon, and 4 party politics in play, I think we will see some really surprising results for all parties come the GE.
The Libdems are not benefiting from a declining Labour vote as they might have expected too just 2/3years ago. Constituencies like Aberdeen South will be worth watching on election night, anything could happen.
[46] If that teaser refers to who I think it does, we’ll be breaking out the champers…
Peter, Jaques, Curtis, mike and Jeremy. I often wondered how come this site was so overwhelmingly Tory. I hope your example will bring others out of the closet!
46. It took five people to co-write the Peter Jacques posts??
O/T - Michael Martin speeds up his expenses review.
46.I thought that some of Peter Jacques posts reminded me of a “very old stager”, formerly of the parish of PB.com.
re 46. The only one really really old stager is JackW. We hope and wait in anticipation.
Do we assumes that ‘Jacque’ is Jack W? And what precisely is the purpose of these elaborate subterfuges?
34: Well, pooh, Mike, why do you assume I’m responding only from tribal loyalty? I think Ken’s a good Mayor and like him personally, and I thought that and said so when we were unwisely running a candidate against him, though I dutifully gave Dobbo my first preference before moving on to Ken to defeat Norris.
Yes, I think it’s a mild form of push poll, and that will remain the case if you can produce a stronger push poll that he’s done. I’m not blaming Porsche or ICM - if I were Porsche’s PR man I’d commission exaclty this sort of poll, and it’s not bad enough that ICM should have had to turn it down. But it’s a reason ti interpet it with caution.
Well, pooh, Mike, why do you assume I’m responding only from tribal loyalty?
Mike’s assumption seems pretty fair based on your long-term posting record here - which has been overwhelmingly partisan and spin-led. And given the subject under discussion, why would anyone expect anything objective from a poster such as yourself?
56. Ahh.. Just like Brown thinks Martin is a ‘very, very good speaker’..I see exactly where you and he are coming from..
These two articles highlight the tribal politics on display in the Labour party just now, not to say it can’t be as negatively displayed by some in the other main parties mind, all the main parties have some previous form in this area.
Tom Bower in the Daily Mail on As usual the Left is utterly wrong. This isn’t about class, but simple corruption
Jon Craig - sky news Grim-Faced Speaker Returns To Work
56 It looks like London Labour MPs are less keen on him. Only 3 out of 44 were willing to sign the letter to the Guardian supporting his bid to be Mayor.
29 I think Ken’s real problem is that in much of London, Labour now has few activists, and if, as I suspect, London’s Labour MPs are unenthusiastic about Livingstone, then he doesn’t have much of an electoral machine.
A lot of squabbles on here this morning
Mike, if the Tory lead increases further or Ken introduces a blanket ban on bicycle, perhaps you should consider ‘comment moderation’ before you post that thread.
You know it makes sense.
60 Do activists realy matter in something like a London-wide personality driven election campaign? It will be won by an Air War, not a Ground War.
62 - On either measure Ken has problems though.
re 56. It’s not just Labour - all parties are the same including mine -the Lib Dems. I left active party politics in 1999 when my group on the local council sought to force me into voting for something that was morally wrong - a decision that led to a man losing his life. The sad thing is that they could not see it. Well pooh to them.
What really gets me at the moment is the way when politicians are under attack they do not answer the issues - but shout “smear”. Attack the messenger - don’t deal with the accusation. That is what is bringing politics into disrepute and it needs brave men and women to speak out.
I see 12-and-a-half-year old Nick Clegg, a sixer from the Lib Dem (Westminster) scout troop, is getting himself into all sorts of trouble over Europe.
Apparently Clegg wanted to get his Felching Badge from Gordon Brown Owl.
Fellow sixer Andrew Duff, first scout troop Lib Dems (Strasbourg) already has his Treachery Neckerchief, so he was asked to help out young Clegg.
Between them it was decided the Westminster troop should betray their basic principles, and renege on a fundamental promise to the British people. Thus making the Lib Dems a laughing stock and an object of contempt, for no apparent reason. Akela Ming Campbell thought this was a jolly good idea.
But all is not well and the cubs are rebelling.
http://tinyurl.com/2fz52t
‘Mike’s assumption seems pretty fair based on your long-term posting record here - which has been overwhelmingly partisan and spin-led’
Unlike your’s Harry which has been a model of impartiality.
66. I never claimed to be impartial Roger. Nor have I ever spluttered with faux outrage if someone suggested I wasn’t.
65 - Another masterclass from a great author in the art of allegory. Read and learn, kids. Maybe not one that will make it in the final edit but ta anyway.
65. I’m completely confused by the lib dem stance on europe, it seems to have created endless trouble for them, and in exchange all they’ve got is a dent in their credibility and given the tories extra ammo.
TODAY’S OBAMAMANIA ENDORSEMENTS;
Cincinnati (OHIO!) Mayor Mark Mallory endorses Obama
Sen. Chris Dodd (CT) will also endorse today (in Ohio)
Columbus Ohio Mayor Don Culliver will endorse Obama today.
Ohio Pastors endorse Obama http://tinyurl.com/324bg3
Not only but also;
Now EVERY daily newspaper in Texas
Louis Farrakhan!
We’re still waiting for “Richard” and “Matthew JCG Partridge” but I don’t think we’re due those any time soon..
64 & 65 With parliament relegated to a provincial talking shop with no responsibility for laws imposed from europe all that is left is posturing, spin and tribal politicking of the worst kind.
65. A fascinating case of the self-preservation instincts of individual MPs colliding with the overriding political purpose of their party, i.e. subservience to the wishes of the EU. Very messy.
68. Can someone please, please tell me what is the point in Nick Clegg? His only significant move so far has been to betray everything the Lib Dems stand for, and break his solemn referendum promise, all to prop up a governing party which the people increasingly detest.
And his return for this? Nothing. Nada. Zip. Not even a pat on the head from El Gordo.
Clegg is a joke. No he’s not even a joke. He is less significant than that.
He barely registers. He is a quantum phenomenon. He is Schrodingers leader. No one knows if he actually exists or not. He is neither wave nor particle. He is a neutrino. No, he isn’t even a neutrino. He is a twat.
re 56 well you’ve answered that in you own post saying that you voted for (in your view) the second best candidate - which can only have been out of tribal loyalty.
SeanT: I think you know a lot more about Cambodian go-go girls than about Nick Clegg. A load of abuse offers not one jot of analysis.
I would go back and ask the Mama-San for a new twat…
69. The Lib Dems are preparing to fight the next general election. The Tories are preparing to re-run 2005. What exactly are the Tories proposing to do once Her Gracious Majesty Queen Elizabeth II has given royal assent to the Bill on the Lisbon Treaty?
10. Sorry, beg to differ. I, possibly, don’t use taxis as frequently as your good self but the ones I’ve spoken to think ‘Ken’ is a corrupt, cronying, communist that should be shipped out to N. Korea as soon as possible although at the moment they still tend to think BJ is a bit of a joke but improving.
Who’d believe taxi drivers, anyway? “Had Mao Tse Tung in the back, last week, can’t tell you what he told me!” (nudge, nudge, wink, wink)
73 Well, he can argue that as his party was rejected at the last election, his manifesto commitment no longer applies.
But, leaving that aside, his stance on the EU is just bad politics. His party has a golden opportunity to give Labour a kicking, and adhere to its proclaimed democratic principles, and they’ve blown it. Their stance gains them no support, may damage their chances in some marginals, and (most importantly) lets their long term rival, Labour, off the hook.
76 agree and its reasonable politics i suppose. but as everyone knows the libdems would never grant a referendum if in power, nor abide by a negative result its just empty posturing.
The main problem for Livingstone is that the congestion charge hasn’t worked,traffic in London is the slowest of any European city,traffic speeds in the congestion area itself have only improved by 2 seconds per kilometer and over 50% of the revenue generated by the charge is pocketed by the private company administering the charge.That must be one of the worst ever deals negotitaed by an elected authority.
Livingstone of course knows this and now only talks about improving air quality as oppossed to reducing congestion.
78. But the Lib Dems - most of them at least - don’t see Labour as their long-term rival. They rather see them as a sometimes aberrant partner in the centre-left struggle against Toryism.
Their joint project has been neatly laid out by the charming Mr.Duff - the ‘defeat’ of ‘the English’ - which means the transformation of the UK into a social democratic province in the European ‘non-imperial’ empire.
Some MPs are, of course, more worried about holding their seats next time.
78. “… his party was rejected at the last election, his manifesto commitment no longer applies.”
That is true. Also, the content of manifestos is in the gift of the party leader. The Lib Dems are two leaders further on now.
It would be like asking Gordon Brown to stick to the policies of John Smith, or David Cameron to keep to those of IDS.
82, no it wouldn’t. Leaving aside the “do election pledges count if you don’t win?” question, Smith was about 14 years ago. Kennedy was 3 years ago.
82 - Although one could argue that Brown is implementing the policies of Michael Foot!
78
Certainly the Lib Dem MP’s in the south don’t seem to agree with Clegg,Heath has already jumped ship and is telling his constituents how much he supports a referendum.
79 That to me is what is unreal about Nick Clegg’s demand. I just can’t see Lib Dem MPs voting to repeal the European Communities Act 1972, regardless of the outcome of any referendum.
81 I agree with your first paragraph. It is a striking contrast to the attitude Labour took after 1918.
82 But it’s still bad politics, a lose lose situation for the Lib Dems.
Row over the Speaker’s Expenses
Mr Nicholas O’Brien in his letter to the Editor in today’s Daily Telegraph writes:
Sir - If Michael Martin, the Speaker of the House of Commons, can claim £75,000 over the past six years in “additional costs allowances” for his home in Glasgow, despite not having a mortgage, and give air miles accumulated on public duty to his family, and Mrs Martin can spend £4,000 on private taxi fares, and all this is “within the rules” (report, February 25), might I ask what all the fuss is about?
It might seem both immoral and unfair and there could be grounds for a review and tightening-up process, but it hardly warrants the furore. If it is not allowed, however, it is misappropriation of public funds and may even be a criminal offence warranting prosecution. Then the word theft could possibly be used.
84. NR?
88 - Clearly, but my tongue was firmly in my cheek!
75. Clegg’s position doesn’t need analysis. He promised a referendum. He should stick to that promise. A six year old could understand the morality of this.
Instead we get some absurd and risible joke of an idea, an in-or-out referendum, a promise that every Lib Dem knows would never be fulfilled, if they ever reached power (which they won’t) just in case they lost the vote.
Can anyone here really imagine the Bruxellois lickspittles of the Lib Dems actually holding an in-or-out referendum if they were in power? It would cause chaos in the markets, it would create huge instability.
And what would they do if they got a No vote, an Out vote? The Lib Dems would withdraw us from Europe? That would be their big thing? Yeah? Really? Prime Minister Nick Clegg (don’t laugh) would stand up in the Commons and announce the UK’s exit from the EU?
Of course not. You would never do that, so the referendum is a farce. Clegg’s idea is a gimmick, a stunt, a hoax, a lie.
And the Lib Dems wonder why people regard them with such withering disdain. This is sixth form politics. Its rubbish. The Lib Dems will never ever get into power precisely because of crap like this. You act like a bunch of students. You are a bunch of ageing students. You are laughable.
And it gets worse. Your most senior representative in Europe, Andrew Duff, has called for the “defeat of the English”. He has also signed a document saying the Lisbon Treaty is substantially the same as the Constitution. This is precisely the opposite of what Clegg says.
So what is it? What do you believe? Stop lying. Grow up. You are a pathetic bunch of gluesniffers hiding in the bikesheds of political life.
And what’s even more absurd, as Sean Fear says, is that this Lib Dem positioning is not only unprincipled and sad, it is crap politics even on a basic low level - at which you are meant to be quite adept.
The Referendum vote was a chance for you Lib Dems to prove you are different from Labour, to show some principle, to gain some media attention, to act like men, and to do the Right Thing.
Instead you have let Labour trample all over your toys and steal your water pistol. And you smile and pretend it is worth it.
Did read that the use of Air Miles other than on parliamentary business was specifically against the HoC rules. Is that correct?
The factor which I think could deliver the Mayoral contest to Boris is turnout.
If he gets momentum going in the outer boroughs, and the Tory ground organisation is motivated, I can see there being an increase in turnout there with a drop in the inner boroughs.
This factor could also affect the split in second preference votes. Lib Dem second preferences split differently in different areas, and a higher turnout in the outer boroughs could see Boris picking up more of Paddick’s second votes.
In a tight contest this could be the decisive factor.
73 The point of Nick Clegg is that he is not Ming Campbell.
92 - Good point well made.
90. I’d kill to hear that speech coming from the opposition front bench in the House of Commons.
90 What terms does Nick Clegg propose? Would we join the EEA, on leaving, or not? Would we apply to join NAFTA on leaving, or not? Would we still make budget contributions to the EU after leaving, or not? After leaving, in what areas of policy would we still co-operate with EU member states? etc. I think we are entitled to see the detailed package before deciding whether or not we wish to pull out?
91, it is advised that they don’t pass Air Miles gained on official business to family members, but it does not break the rules, I think.
96 - Yes but that is to assume that it is a proper policy rather than a complete ruse.
I saw Clegg on TV yesterday. Where is the supposed slick media-savvy communicator we were promised? He stuttered his way through a dull little speech, entirely without eloquence or passion.
He seems to have been selected purely on the basis that floppy hair and boyish looks automatically mean a person is media-friendly. This looks like a terrible error.
It is astonishing that Congestion Charging is being supported by the Left, and opposed by the Right.
Surely, the widespread introduction of Congestion Charging will simply price the poor off the roads. If you can afford a 4X4, you can certainly afford 20 pounds a day to drive it around wherever you want.
If I suggested that any other public service for which there is ferocious demand should introduce charging, Ken Livingstone would be the first to complain that it is non-egalitaraian.
Congestion is very egalitarian. Congestion Charging is Not. The victims of Congestion are largely those who cause it, those who are sitting in their cars in traffic jams. Excellent! A crime for which the criminal is the victim!
99.”Where is the supposed slick media-savvy communicator we were promised?”
He lost the Libdem leadership contest.
96. Quite so.
Because the basic Lib Dem position is a lie “this is not the same as the Constitution, therefore we don’t have to abide by our promise”, they are getting into evermore difficulty as they try to disguise the lie. As happens with liars.
Now they are saying their central proposal on Europe is a vote on whether we stay in or not. Right. Yep. So I presume this will be a major condition if they go into coalition with Labour. “We will only support you if you agree to an in-or-out referendum”.
Or will they quietly forget this dramatic proposal once it is politically convenient? For shame. The whole thing would be comical if it weren’t so repellent.
There is a minor tragedy here. The Lib Dems’ USP was, or should be, that they are morally better than the big parties. That they, at least, stick to their promises and tell it like it is.
This is a good position to be in. There is a market for honesty in public life. There is a hunger for candour and truth. What’s more, this works electorally. The Lib Dems told the truth on Iraq and their votes went up - deservedly. Obama is reaping the benefit of this same public hunger.
But the Lib Dems have tossed away their entire reputation for some squalid Eurodeal. They are now blatantly lying to the people on an issue of fundamental importance.
Ergo, there is no longer any reason to vote for them. They are leftwing and they lie. And if you want to elect a bunch of lefty liars you might as well cut out the middleman, and go straight to Labour.
The BBC is now reporting that the maximum that MPs can claim back without a receipt is to be reduced to £50. I can’t claim anyhting back (in the NHS) without a receipt - even for 1 stamp. Why should MPs be any different?
[100] It’s obviously escaped your notice that a lot of people ride buses in central London.
103, quite. Further, peers have to provide receipts for lesser items too.
re 92. PTB I think that’s right and remember that on May 1st there won’t be Euro elections taking place at the same time - a factor that boosted turnout in 2004.
The big political drive ahead of June 10th 2004 was UKIP for the Euros which helped boost its position in other elections held on that day. It ended up in fourth place in the mayoral with 115k votes.
My guess is that the party will not score anything like that total and that will help Boris.
At the time, of course, UKIP was very well funded by Paul Sykes and had hired Dick Morris as a key strategist. Now UKIP has nothing like the resources.
103. Why indeed? And when will the intense scrutiny of expenses be extended to those enjoyed by Euro-MPs?
104 It’s obviously escaped your notice that bus lanes provide an easy solution.
The lib dem policy of wanting an ‘in or out’ referendum has left them looking very clumsy whenever the subject comes up. Tories say they want a referendum on the treaty, labour say they don’t, lib dems come out with a long and rambling answer that seems to have very little to do with the question asked. All Clegg seems to have done with this policy is make the lib dems look confused, and increasingly like they’re supporting labour.
SeanT I almost wrote what is the point of all this abuse- you just go over the same old ground and end up sounding like some kind of grumpy teenager. However, lets just go over this one last time.
Lib Dems are pro-European. We think that the EU is a net benefit to the UK. You don’t. We think that the argument over the amendment to the treaties, which is what the reform treaty is, rather than a replacement of the treaties which is what the constitutional treaty was, is not particularly the point. The point is do we stay in the EU or leave it. That is the debate thaat people in the UK talk about- they do not debate the niceties of Euro-paperwork around the kitchen table.
However the pressure of the antis in the Uk has led to the pathetic display of of Brown turning up at the side door to sign the Lisbon treaty. The fact is that 26 countries have signed and will ratify the Lisbon treaty- so if you don’t want the trety then you don’t want to be in the EU. It is just that simple.
I think we should vote on whether we are in- and damn straight I will campaign tooth and nail to get a yes vote, but if the vote is no, then we will have to accept this, but I will believe that it is aa mistake and will say so. Honestly I am just sick and tired of the negative, crude bullcr*p that is thrown around in the Europe debate. We can not go on in the semi detached arrogant and isolated way any more.
So to put it in your own way. Anti Europeanism don’t need analysis- it needs confrontation in the SeanT stylee: Anti Europeans are the enemy of this country- they believe in some mythical world where we are all Sir Francis Drake- devil may care privateers who can safely ignore the those funny foreigners. Well we can’t. So wrap yourself up in the Union Jack and chant “we’re number one” repeatedly- but you are just on a heroin trip that will rapidly become green and scaly.
The gaylording ponceyboots TM. would probably play the same game as Brown- “the reluctant European” but will still coyly play footsie. There is no choice- but if you want one, do the vote on the whole schmeer- in or out, no ifs no buts. At least the Lib dems tell you where we staand instead of the contempible stripetease of Broon and the dishonest smarm of Cameron. The point of Nick Clegg is that at least he is not either of those ***%&& s.
106 - I had completely forgotten that the Euro’s were on the same day last time round.
It may have changed but the civil service rule was that air miles earned on business travel paid for by the tax payer must be used on business travel to reduce the bill to that same taxpayer.
110. Nice to see the pro-European cause presented in such a calm, compelling, and well-argued manner, without the usual ranting, blustering or hysterical scaremongering.
:)
Martin expenses - Ch4 FactCheck concludes that airmiles breaches the ‘advice’ given - but not the rules - but Martin may be in more trouble over Taxis and his Housing:
http://tinyurl.com/2ok5nt
To me the HUGE disconnect is between Parliament and the people - who like many have posted on this board have to account for every penny of claimed expenses - and the self-congratulatory ‘Hear Hear’s yesterday as Speaker Martin started will have done even more damage. They just don’t get it.
91,97 and 112. So if Martin did not heed the advice re Air Miles, did he then break the spirit of the rules of which he is the supposed guardian.?
106
Mike, what is the reason why we don’t have Euro elections this year,have they changed the cycle from 4 to 5 years?
99 But you are a Conservative supporter and apologist hence your opinion of Nick Clegg will never be unbiased and objective similarly my opinion of Cameron will not be without bias . It was interesting the other day with auschwitzgate how many of the Conservative supporters on here rushed to post in his defence and only 1 or 2 of you would accept that a mistake had been made by CCHQ or Cameron or both .
[113] I was provoked
110 - Yes because the whole Europe debate boils down to in as it is now or out and on our own. I don’t think so, we need a grown up debate not trench warfare with ever increasing barrages of vituperation.
116 - The Euros have always been on a five year cycle - 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 …
116 - Euros are always on a 5 year cycle.
110 But if it’s a policy, then it’s one that falls apart on close examination. Without knowing what terms Nick Clegg proposes, how can we vote on something this vague?
However, it’s not really a policy at all. It’s more like a student union debating ploy. The Lib Dems never expect to be in a position to deliver this, and assuming they did, it would be more a form of blackmail, along the lines of “sign up to a single European state or get out.”
117. I am indeed Mark, but you don’t have to share my views to recognise stuttering and limp delivery when you see it.
I loathed Blair but his qualities as a media performer and communicator couldn’t be questioned.
[108] It’s obviously escaped your notice that lots of roads in Central London don’t have four lanes.
Enough of this banter - I’ve got to go out…
I see that I have been mentioned regarding Roger’s address which has been sometimes described here as Covent Garden.
Well, looking back Roger mentioned that he lives near or in Old Compton Street.
In the 2004 Mayoral (both ballots), GLA constituency, GLA list and European elections along with all recent local elections his neighbours voted Conservative, including Norris leading Livingstone on both ballots.
116 European elections have always been on a 5 year cycle - since 1979, I think. However, I cannot believe that they increased turnout at the last London election which was held on the same day.
(Although I agree with the point about the impact of UKIP Mike made at 106.)
114 I certainly agree with this.
There is a HUGE opportunity for one of the political parties here — whoever is really seen to be tackling the terrible culture of sleaze that has mushroomed in our political culture will — Obama-like — reap huge electorral dividends.
I have given up on Labour — they seem to genuinely beleive that only other people are sleazy. When one of their kind, Martin, is criticised, we hear that is not sleaze but “nasty little stories” (to quote Margaret Beckett).
Syphoning of huge sums of taxpayers money for mortgages that don’t exist is just completely unacceptable. Throw Martin and the Wintertons out.
110. Nul points. Complete failure to address central issues.
1. you promised a vote on the Constitution
2. you have reneged on this
3. you pretend that this isn’t the same document but your leader in the EU says it is
4. you ignore this
5. you have now come up with the most embarrassing gimmick in recent British politics, an in-or-out referendum which will never be held even if you reach power
6. you gloss over this by saying we would “accept the result”. Yes, indeedy doody. I can see Nick Clegg on his first visit to Angela Merkel as prime minister. Sorry Angela but we’re leaving the EU. We promised a vote five years ago and, whooops, the people voted No. We’re not sure what to do now because the whole thing was a stunt. We might join the Organisation of African Unity.
Indeed, the measure of how little the Lib dems expect of themselves is that they have come up with this derisory non-policy, a policy which could not be enacted if they were in power. As they well know.
That’s how much the Lib Dems think of themselves. They never expect to be in power. You might as well promise a flat tax rate of 2%.
For more serious readers (i.e. non Lib Dems), if anyone remembers my riff about Calcutta: its now been published on the firstpost:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk
114
Yes,couldn’t agree with you more ,the hear hear stuff yesterday for the Speaker was a clear two fingers to the rest of us,we control this and if we want to carry on ripping off the taxpayer we’ll do it.
What’s perhaps even more pathetic is the defence of Martin by his friends; that it’s just a case of snobbery and nothing to do with misuse of taxpayers money.Reminds me of the first time accusations were made against Lee Jaspar we immediately get the race card played.
re 114 I’m amazed that no-one seems to have made the connection - and instead seem to indicate surprise - that Mr Martin is well-liked by MPs precisely because MPs obviously would warm to a man who is likely to let them keep as much of their snouts in the trough for as long as possible. Voting for a hard man as replacement would be like turkeys voting for Christmas.
Innocent Abroad, obviously you are partly right that sometimes buses get stuck in traffic. But, equally in many cases, there are bus lanes.
My point is simply how curious it is that the Left are advocating charging for what is a public service that has hitheto been free (use of the roads). And that this is clearly non-egalitarian.
If you want an egalitarian policy, why not insist that everyone driving a public vehicle into central London has to travel at 10 mph or less? That makes driving a real pain, and would dissuade a lot of people from using their cars.
Ian Davidson MP has written to Mr Clegg suggesting that there be a dual referendum with a question on the treaty and a question on in or out. Will be intriguing to see the response.
110 Cicero -Thanks completely agree . Sean and his ilk sound as if they want to be in a club but only follow some of the rules (rules which they had a share in making).
Clegg is quite right offer the people the chance to leave if they want to and see what apickle we would be in then.
The collapse of Sterling against the Euro despite our high interest rates (another cost) is going to further damage our economy . We should be in the Euro!
128) SeanT - you need to get them to correct the bit about where you realise what the cost of your Chilean shiraz could pay for - they missed it off, so it makes you sound like a bit of a t0sser - eg seeing all that poverty and suffering and then tucking into your nice din dins as the conclusion…
117.I thought that the Libdems chose the wrong leader for the battles ahead at the next GE, nothing I have seen since Nick Clegg’s election has altered my opinion.
But hey, we have the almost invisible Nicol Stephen running the show up here for the Libdems, he does not cut it up against Alex Salmond. I think that Chris Huhne was capable of stirring things up and making sure that the Libdems views remained very relevant in any debate, thus giving Brown AND Cameron a rougher ride in any election campaign.
115. Martin has certainly not followed his own advice to MPs that:
“their use of allowances is above reproach”…..and his alleged comment on Conway ‘Hasn’t Derek suffered enough?’ - when in the ‘real world’ Conway’s expenses claims would have led to summary dismissal and possible loss of pension - beggars belief……..
130. - MPs are not the only ones with votes…….
33.’The collapse of Sterling against the Euro despite our high interest rates (another cost) is going to further damage our economy . We should be in the Euro!’
Not convinced, the fall in sterling may help us rebalance our economy by encouraging exports and making imports more expensive. The test will be how the Irish and Spanish economies, whose economies have followed a broadly similar path than ours with a house price boom and bust cope within th esingle currency. My guess is that they will find in far harder to rebalance their economy, depsite the fact that Spain especially is in far far better poistion in regard to government finances, even if its trade deficit is markedly worse.
130
Its just like the head of the committeee for standards in public life and the parliamentary Ombudsman as soon as they start being effective they get fired.
I wonder when we will get the next round of hand wringing MP’s astounded at how low turnout is at elections.
31 I thought the average speed of traffic in central London is below 10 mph .
133 What we dislike is that the club rules are constantly changing, and that the club members are constantly having their powers transferred to the club committee.
“Clegg is quite right offer the people the chance to leave if they want to and see what apickle we would be in then.”
So a Lib Dem government would both pull out, if the people voted for it, and ensure that as much damage as possible was done in doing so?
“We should be in the Euro!”
Because the last time we were in a currency union with EU states, it worked out so well for us.
139 What is your source, please ?
133
The collapse of sterling against the Euro,which planet are you on?
When the Euro was collapsing against the dollar and sterling 6/7 years ago were you also advocating that the Euro should be scrapped?
134. I take yr point but I think you being overly defensive on my behalf. I am sure most readers will see that the juxtaposition of my lovely meal, with all that poverty and suffering, is meant to be ironic.
The fact that it troubles me is also implied by the last entry: Take val1um.
And boy, that day in Calcutta did trouble me. And the rest of the crew I was with. The soundman has had terrible nightmares ever since.
Fraser Nelson suggests Calling Nick Clegg’s bluff
Having woken from my enforced slumbers is that 50/1 still available for that Obama chap ?
Can’t see him lasting the pace, but you never know.
140 - the last time we were in a currency union with EU states was, I believe, the Roman Empire. That seemed to work quite well for quite a while.
Jack W returns.
Hope all is well.
141 If you google speed of traffic central london you will get many sources . One report says the implementation of congestion charges increased the average speed from 8.5 to 11 mph but it has since slipped back to 10 mph .
145 YAY welcome back Jack W , if you ever went away LOL .
146. The Roman Empire didn’t have a common currency.
Salt and Gold. The Roman Soldiers were paid in Salt when out campaigning.
Each new emperor issued a new coin, the amount of gold within would change over time. Most wealth was measured by land and “treasure.”
140/136 There have been a number of occasions in the last 1500 years when there was a common currency throughout at least part of Europe . Charlemagne’s denier was probably the first attempt . The English penny was the standard currency throughout much of Western Europe in the 13/14th century until replaced by gold based standards the first of which was the Gold Florin .
re 145. Welcome back JacquesW - we’ve missed you and your ARSE
Obama and Huckabee gain on Clinton and McCain in Ohio. However, Hillary and McCain still lead by over 7 and 20% respectively.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/26/obama-and-huckabee-gain-in-ohio/