Is 5/1 Kathleen Sebelius a good V-P bet?
February 26th, 2008
Is this the woman who will join Obama on the ticket?
Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in Hillary’s campaign in the next few days then in the middle of next week speculation will turn to who the junior senator from Illinois will choose to be his running mate.
There has, of course, been talk that it should be Hillary herself and certainly that would please large sections of the party. But after the campaign that we have seen and her tactics in the past few days is that going to be possible? And would having a Clinton on the ticket simply reinforce the Republican vote?
What Hillary has shown, however, is that there is a large constituency of women voters which needs to be kept on board. A woman on the ticket could play a big part.
Consider, therefore, Kathleen Sebelius - the Governor of Kansas who, herself, was tipped as a potential candidate for for President after Kerry’s defeat.
Speculation about her future was heightened by the fact that in January she was chosen by the Party’s congressional leaders to give the to Bush’’s to Republican President George W. Bush’s State of the Union Address.
She also got onto the Obama band-wagon early. A week before Super Tuesday and the Kansas Caucus she endorsed his campaign. Obama won the caucus easily, with over 70% support. Kathleen has also done TV spots for Barack.
She’s also chair of the Democratic Governors Association - which is often described as a very good launchpad for those with political ambitions.
On Betfair Kathleen is the 3.6/1 favourite - well ahead of her PaddyPower price of 5/1. When there’s such a differential between a fixed odds price and the betting exchange then the former won’t last long.
The most I was allowed to put on was £78 - but that should give a reasonable return.
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I think her response to the State of Union was so soporific that it’s dented her chances somewhat.
Hello Mike !!
……………………..
Seems a tad tight to me. Certainly it’ll keep the Hillary sisterhood happy and she comes from a potentially in play red state. Still fives …..?????
Any 50/1 shots …. apart from Viscount Monckton’s american ‘kissin cousins’ ….
I’ve put a bit of work into this, so here is some unashamed advertising. Ladbrokes have some prices on the vice-presidential nominees for each party. 3/1 Sibelius for the Democratic pick.
On the Republican side we’ve laid about a dozen different runners so far. Mitt Romney would be our worst result.
Katherine Sibelius would be a solid choice but my guesses are either Michael Bloomberg or James Webb.
Finally decided to put my money where my mouth is an got an account with SportSpreads.com up and running. Bought Republican Electoral college votes at 242 @ £2.50 a vote. It’s actually better than the Spreadfair price and without the 5% comission.
I liked that ad you were running against a new runway at Heathrow airport on the last thread. Apart from a weak ending it was well thought out and powerful. Do we see it again or is that one brief showing all they get?
Mike - PP is actually offering 8/1 at present for a max bet of £34.26
Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza wrote on Friday on his blog…She’s (Sebelius) “the hot name right now,” but back to TX for one second - Previous thread 319) etc - According to some, “It’s plausible that African-American turnout could push north of 40 percent in the Democratic primary,” (Texas);
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/v-print/story/28333.html#
Seeing as she is 11.5 to be next VP on betfair and the Democrats are 1.5 to win the General then that strikes me as a better bet, Mike.
I am surprised you have fallen into the common trap of comparing betfair’s “Back” price with a bookie’s and concluding that value exists with the bookie - you should look at the “Lay” price (currently nothing up on betfair which is still very illiquid on the VP markets).
Re 2. Jack - Wasn’t Viscount Monckton the British peer who was trying to stop Al Gore? He seems to have made a good job of it.
I think a major concern for Obama will be someone with FP credentials. This is by far McCain’s strongest card among both the Conservative base and also moderates.
9. Didn’t you run a thread on him at one point when he was a candidate in a by-election to the House of Lords?
As if by magic, after today’s earlier thread - before the EU took over - a poll for London!
BoJo 5% ahead. Hurrah!
http://lydall.thisislondon.co.uk/2008/02/poll-boost-for.html
(Previous thread 328.) What I find amusing about the current situation in the Dem Primaries where commentatorsd are using references to Texas being Clinton’s ‘Alamo’ with the idea that she must win.
However, in reality whilst the Alamo was a fine example of frontier American courage and resiliance it ended with the Fort being overrun by the Mexican army and the defenders being killed.
Coincidentally, the defence lasted 13 days and there has been a clear fortnight of campaigning in the Texas primaries.
I hardly think the HRC will enjoy such an analogy?
Of course, the Battle of the Alamo gave the Texians time to rally reinforcements to defeat the Mexican army at the battle of San Jacinto under Sam Houston.
So one can speculate: Is Hillary (unintentionally) allowing John McCain time to rally his forces?
How ironic would that be?
12) As a motorcyclist - I think bozza could have us sewn up in London with the policy of allowing us to use bus lanes…
12 - That’s good news.
perhaps bill richardson would be back in play - swing state governor with fp credentials who wouldn’t outshine or embarrass the nominee…
i just couldn’t see obama picking a woman veep.
14. Well that’ll be Lynton Crosby in action. A disciplined campaign, focussing on key groups who will secure the win.
2006 London borough votes + motorcycling community = BoJo clinches it in the first round!
16. I think two non-whites on the ticket would be too much for whites out West and down South. They’ve only just prepared themselves for a black President.
12,
The Labour private MORI poll has just been released with Ken ahead:
http://lydall.thisislondon.co.uk/2008/02/breaking-news-.html
Murky waters still …
17 - If Livingstone couldn’t win 50% plus on first votes in 2000 I think it is unlikely that Bozza can in May!
[12] Just as I predicted this morning!
And a big welcome back to Jack W
#1
I was going to say exactly the same thing. Her state of the union response was pretty poorly received and I think her chances were pretty severely dented. 1 speech doesn’t doom a person though so it’s still a possibility. I just think he’ll go with someone with a little more substance. Not too much though because he likes to be the star and doesn’t want to be overshadowed.
Maybe Chris Dodd after his endorsement today?
some interesting goings on in the house…..Lib Dems getting a little bit out of control
20. Four main candidates in 2000 remember (sort of - you know what I mean). Whatever happened to Frank Dobson?
BBC saying Ed Davey “thrown out ” of the House of Commons. No idea why. its on the ticker for the BBC news page
A happy Minnesotan here - just hope this act was enough to dent Pawlenty’s chances of becoming McCain’s Veep - the hardy Minnesota legislature overridden his veto on the Transportation Bill - his pledge of no taxes was destroying roads in the State and 6 of his fellows in the House and 2 in the Senate sided with the Democrats and he is livid !!!!!
If McCain did become POTUS and Pawlenty did become VPOTUS then America would be in for a disastrous 5 years which would make Bush look like a breeze in the park.
4 - I think that’s a good price and a good move, especially given your estimation of his chances. And it’s always more fun on election night with a healthy spreadbet!!
Still can’t see Webb, though I have heard the rumours about Bloomberg. VP would give him the institutional platform to run on his fortune - instead of being the rich outsider. Would annoy the hell out of the Democratic Party though, wouldn’t it? I wouldn’t put money on that one…
ON TOPIC - Kathleen Sibellius was nominated by TIME magazine as one of America’s best 5 governors recently - fiscally very responsible, and respected on both sides of the aisle. Pragmatic, not flashy, so a good balance on the ticket, even leaving demographics aside. Can’t find link, but Google should find it - Huckabee was one of the others nominated. I think her or Richardson.
betfair mayor market a bit thin - spread is huge on BJ and KL.
23 What is it all about?
25. They are getting desperate for publicity, aren’t they?
16 - I agree. Richardson is the perfect combination as a governor and former UN ambassador and energy secretary. With the exception of the economy, he’s got deep federal experience in areas people care about. He can deliver more Hispanic voters than Kerry won but is as Latino as Obama is black ie: mixed. If that is too heady a mix, I go for Joe Biden or Wesley Clark but neither would be as good as Richardson.
23. Hope it involves the speaker
Theres no such thing as bad publicity (except for Gordon!!!)
25. It was during an EU referendum debate.
I think all LDs have walked out the Chamber now with Labour and the Tories continuing the debate
29. I jus flicked on the TV when it happened, Ed Davey was trying to make a point of order, which the speaker rejected, he wouldn’t sit down and after several warnings was asked to leave the house. Then followed all other lib dems in a sorty of huffy walkout (with the exception of their front bench spokesperson) very funny, something to do with Europe debate. I’m sure its all very important
Can I just say how much I enjoyed the last thread? Cicero and SeanT venting their spleens at each other, lots of interesting posts in between, and the return of the infamous Jack W…makes one glad to be alive…
23. It was deputy speaker, sir michael lord presiding
34. Perhaps they have to go and get their latest instructions from across the channel…
LibDems walking out of the Commons en masse! Never seen anything like it
39. Suprised anyone noticed !
Michael Lord was very patient, handled it very well. LDs protesting against Martin’s ruling of their coward’s amendment instead of a Constitution referendum. Back to lurking now
Lib Dem ordered out of EU debate
Mr Davey was annoyed about the Speaker’s ruling
Lib Dem frontbencher Edward Davey has been ordered out of the Commons, after angry protests to the deputy speaker.
Mr Davey was annoyed at the Speaker’s decision not to allow MPs to debate and vote on whether the UK should remain a member of the European Union.
Deputy Speaker Michael Lord had already warned Mr Davey and fellow Lib Dems to respect the Speaker.
Mr Davey repeatedly protested, saying he was being “gagged” and saying “it’s a debate the British people want”.
39 - All because the Speaker struck down there ‘In/Out’ referendum amendment.
41. Aha so it is indeed a feeble publicity stunt, quelle surprise.
37. Apparently the Speaker didn’t select their amendement on whether the UK should remain a member of the European Union and so they complained. Deputy Speaker who was chairing the session asked them to respect the Speaker’s choice and then all went out of control
Well it appears Sir Michael Lord is a disciple of the Great Guru SeanT and shares his views on the Lib Dems idea of a specious referendum wholly unconnected to the Lisbon treaty
Count me in for parties.
My financial advisor (my wife) precludes any thoughts of taking part in a pool or syndicate though
Anyone got any odds on LDs getting 60 or more seats at next election - “What you have, you hold”.
Portillo’s programme last night - Interesting how it took Howard 30 seconds to say anything in response to a potentially controversial question.
20. Don’t underestimate the power of the motorcycling community (+friends)!
More seriously, I agree that it would be a very tall order indeed - particularly as I think Paddick will do better than we have seen in the (limited) polls so far. However, it does seem that we’re going to be focussing on a Get Out The Vote campaign - I’m afraid that he’ll be strongly ahead on first preferences, but lose out in the second round.
One question that is very pertinent - how motivated to vote are left-leaners going to be in May? Conservative voters/leaners have got plenty of motivation at the moment as it’s a chance to kick the government, Ken’s been in power for 8 years and isn’t so cuddly anymore, plenty of (probably over-played) stink around Jasper etc.
Does Boris provide enough reason to go out and vote against him? My impression is that hardly any of the stuff thrown at Boris - claims that he is a hard-right bigot - has stuck. So does it come down to competence? And if so, is that enough of a reason to get out and vote if you’re wavering?
wot duz “fp” mean ?
9 Mike S. I think he was.
Boris has my brother’s vote He rides a motorbike. Go Boris!
42. The hypocrisy of Davey’s remark is pretty breathtaking isn’t it?
The people want to have a debate on the Constitution, but that’s not allowed. Are the Lib Dems getting angry about that - of course not.
No, the people can only ‘want’ a debate on the issue that the Lib Dems want them to. So they try to get a referendum amendment on their chosen ‘issue’ and then flounce off in faux outrage when it is ruled out of order.
Meanwhile, they intend to vote to help Labour force through ratification of the Constitution so that it will be ‘too late’ for a referendum on it.
To cover up this craven manoeuvre we have them behaving like some tin pot football team refusing to take the field after a disputed penalty. What a miserable bunch.
Welcome Back Jack. When did you come back?
39 - Is the house still quorate??!
michael lord - was County Cllr in ward for 1979-83 I was Borough cllr in 1986-96. Had a reputation as rather stuffy adn arrogant on Council. Didn’t do much in ward. Got elected in 1983 for a Suffolk seat causing by-election which we LDs won easily. Looks like he still hasn’t forgiven us.
52. You’re being rather unfair to football teams I think…
;o)
52 - All Tories are scared of a referendum on the real issue of In/Out as they know they will lose it.
I have a question.
If I back Obama for President at 1.9 with 100 Euros and then lay him at 1.5 with 180 Euros will I actually make a profit of 80 Euros?Or do I win only 40 Euros.
Thanks in advance for your help.
52 - It’s worse than that because they don’t really want the ‘in/out’ referendum anyway, it is merely a ploy. Speaker saw straight through it, half the country can see straight through it and Ed Davey is acting like a smug prefect who has been overruled by the headmaster.
52 - The “people” want a debate on Europe not a document with 1,000s of pages that everyone has different spins on. I believe it aint a constitution but I’m sure you do so why not have a vote on In/Out ?
57 Ironically, Charles de Gaulle was right. We should have never been allowed in. Now we are in we are completely toothless.(IMHO)
59 As I said, Lord is stuffy and arrogant. He aint changed.
61 Doesn’t Maggie have any teeth left then ?
53 Andrea. Hi oh mighty Italian one !!!!!!! …. the last thread.
Congrats on the degree !!
wot duz “fp” mean ?
57. It doesn’t really matter whose scared or not because neither Labour or Conservatives are going to take that course. Thats the whole reason why the Libdems have proposed it. They know they haven’t got a cats chance in hell of it happening and are using it just to muddy the water and cause a short term distraction from the real issue for their own rather dubious political gain.
Clinton lead erodes in the latest Rasmussen Ohio Primary poll :
Clinton 48% .. Obama 43%
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary
I think Hillary’s really starting to lose it. The way she mocked Obama and his supporter’s expectations of him yesterday was supposed to be funny but she couldn’t disguise the bitterness in her voice. I finally see why so many Americans dislike her so much.
57 - You are making the major assumption that the Conservatives would be on the ‘Out’ side methinks. They may be on the ‘In’ side in which case if the entire establishment urged ‘In’ and the outcome was ‘Out’ it would be interesting to say the least!
57 The logic of the Lib Dems In/Out Referendum in a Bill about specific changes to existing treaties escapes me. I object overall to the changes in the Lisbon Treaty, I want to remain a member of the EU on the basis of its existing rules. It’s the equivalent of asking members of a Golf Club if they still want to be members of the Club because they object to the practice range being converted into a children’s playground and creche. You can say no to the one without wanting the other.
If you can’t then the EU has become something very illberal.
65: future president??
I am guessing but at least I am not ignoring you! Everyone ignores my posts so i know how it feels
60. Yes quite right, the people don’t want a referendum on the Constitution, that’s why they keep saying they do want one whenever polled on the subject.
Or do you think the issue is too complex for them to understand? The same way that it was too complex for the Dutch and the French, who had lively debates and referendums on the same document when it was called something else.
If it’s the latter, when did it get too complex? Obviously somewhere in between the Lib Dems making a manifesto promise of a referendum and now. Has the public become so much more stupid in such a short time?
57. But that is only the REAL issue for the Lib Dems! Everyone else is talking about the treaty.
As has been said millions of times before, it is not as simple as in or out. While I wish the Conservatives had a firmer answer to ‘the European question’, I don’t think that our position (and i mean both the Party, and most moderately sceptical members) is that far removed from the ‘average’ Brit: we don’t want to be further involved in the politics, nor do we want to pull out of the common market.
Is that massively coherent? Probably not. Does it mean that we need to make such a momentous decision as in or out at this precise moment? Well the French and the Dutch didn’t have to. If we get a referendum and say no? Well, they go back to the drawing board, same as after the French and Dutch votes. Is any of this neat and easy? No.
So, let us have our promised referendum, and then we’ll deal with the mess afterwards! Its the Lib Dems who are running scared. Ask SeanT if you have any questions…
70 - Ted - the logic is to avoid voting for the real referendum by throwing up an in/out smokescreen.
Lib Dem elitist, undemocratic Europhilia trumps giving the people a say on the actual issue before Parliament - the Lisbon Treaty.
Contemptible.
New Rasmussen Primary and Presidential trackers :
Obama 46% .. Clinton 43%
McCain 54% .. Huckabee 30%
McCain 47% .. Clinton 44%/Obama 43%
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
As I said - All Tories are scared of a referendum on the real issue of In/Out as they know they will lose it. My one mistake was the capital T.
Within tories, I include UKIPers and labour with a small l like Ian Davidson. mPerhaps I should haev said conservatives with a small l.
Lib Dems support the Lisbon treaty and have said so publicly but believe the wider referendum is needed to stop the endless arguments about “1975″ or whatever memory lapse tories have about what 1975 meant.
We don’t agree with FPTP but we particpate as it’s the system. We want to stay in Europe but believe the wider referendum is needed to stop the endless arguments.
70. As a LD I can not understand why my party is doing this as well!
The London polls The critical thing about both polls is when they were carried out. I have requested this information from both YouGov and Ipsos-MORI and I will report as soon as I get responses.
We will see the YouGov ITN poll data as a matter of course within the next two days. Ken’s poll from Ipsos-MORI was a private one and there might be problems getting the information.
78 - Whatever makes you say that about Ispos-Mori Mike
70. I agree with you about the disingenuous nature of the lib dem position. They don’t want a referendum because they don’t want the result that it would produce, but on the other hand they are proposing a referendum on EU membership which nobody, bar a few headbangers, are actually asking for.
Having said that, this is the only policy Clegg has proposed so far that has actually got him any significant press. This combined with the walkout today should get the Lib Dems a couple of minutes on the 6 0′clock News. For them, that’s not a bad result.
76. Repeating the same tired spin doesn’t make it any more convincing you know.
I don’t understand why the LDs want an in/out referendum - it couldn’t possibly have any positive outcome. If the people say ‘in’, nothing will change and there’ll still be a very vocal eurosceptic crowd. If the people say ‘out’, the only outcome would be total carnage.
Clinton and Obama tied in new PPP in Texas :
Clinton 48% .. Obama 48%
McCain 52% .. Huckabee 36%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Texas_Release_022608.pdf
16 - What does “fp” mean ?
Nothing elitist about moving power from the Commision to the Parliament AKA the Lisbon Treaty.
72 - The promise was on the rejected constitution not the Lisbon treaty.
73 - You won’t get a firmer answer. Cameron would have to come off the fence. But leaving the EPP is the furthest he’ll go as he knows the British people aren’t interested in such minutae as what grouping the Tories are in.
74 - Must be working to get tories so wound up
75 - Fist I was an Edwards Fan, now a Clintonista. ABPAVP - Anything but Pawlenty as VP.
81 - Do you say that in the mirror every morning
82 - In will shut Farage up at least for a few minutes. Always a positive thought
76. Last time I heard the Conservative party policy was to REMAIN WITHIN the EU but to repatriate powers to reconfirm our national sovereignty and enforce referendums for any further significant handovers of power to the EU. So are they scared that the electorate might vote to leave the EU?
In which case aren’t Labour and the Libdems just as fearful (using your argument).
The only party that advocates leaving the EU are UKIP to my knowledge. Trying to tie them altogether in the ‘Better Off Out’ camp is quite ridiculous! Get your facts right before you sound off….
80. …and this is what the party of Gladstone and Asquith is reduced to, trying to get some cheap publicity with schoolboy pranks.
81. Likewise, repeating your tired assertions does not make them true.
87 - Crikey, I’ve done it again
86 - But that’s just the point - it wouldn’t shut him up at all, just give him even more to winge about…..
58
If he loses you gain a net 71 (171 gain from lay minus 100 loss from bet).
If he wins you lose a net 84.5 (185.5 gain from bet minus 270 loss from lay).
If you want an equal win you should only lay 166.53. Then you get a net gain of 10.7 whatever the outcome.
I think….
80. You think this is bad? Just wait until Clegg gets arrested over I.D cards.
Nothing elitist about moving power from the Commission to the Parliament AKA the Lisbon Treaty. Quite the opposite. We can vote the Parliament out. UK Commissioners are tired old has-been politicians. Like the rest of the Commission. That is why the Lisbon Treaty is a good thing.
But having a referendum on the Treaty is a smoke screen for the outers.
87 - I think it’s fair to say that a significant number of post-1997 Tory MPs were euro-sceptics and it has got worse at each election since. Otherwise how the hell did IDS and Howard get elected as Tory Leader ?
91 Fair comment John. probably moan about how the 40% non voters are all anti-EU
I meant 88..
Big Tall Tim - what does ‘In’ the EU actually mean in your referendum?
Does that mean we stay as we are, or does that mean we’re signed up to further integration? Because many moderately sceptical Conservatives would vote to stay in if it is the former (we don’t like lots of it, but on balance it’s worth sticking around), but out if it is the ‘latter’.
93 At least the LDs have been consitently against ID cards unlike the Nixon-like nature of the Tory position - “blowing in the wind”.
98 Cameron would benefit from an I.D card
But having a referendum on the Treaty is a smoke screen for the outers
Risible. Was it so in France and the Netherlands, as well?
94 Who is the “we” who can vote Parliament out? 27 disparate states with complex variations in political parties reflecting internal developments, differing value systems, languages and history don’t constitute a “We” - 26 remain a them. It’s only a “We” when it’s a single confederated union with pan-European political parties sharing common ethos. That might be your dream but it’s not mine.
97 - Thanks for a sensible question rather than troll utterances from others
That’s the benefit of an In/Out referendum.
Also depends on the question.
Question could mean full stop now or supoort further integration.
I personally support even further integration with Europe.
Depends what you mean by “further integration”.
A Lisbon Treaty referendum ignores all the treaties since 1975.
In/Out referendum on EU including all treaties since 1975 i.e. EU post Polish etc integration.
99 - Agreed.
00 - Yes.
01 - EU Commission - no say. EU Parliament - some say by vote every 4 years. UK Parliament under FPTP - 60,000 voters have say every 4 years. BTW It is my dream.
Think fp stands for ‘Foreign Policy’ credentials - UN Ambassador, US negotiator with North Korea, hostage negotiator with Saddam etc etc
94. Unfortunately that is not quite the case. Even if powers could be redirected out of the grasp of the commission as far as I know there is no desire in the EO apparatus to do so. We can only vote out our own MEP’s. We cannot affect the outcomes in any other countries. In such a scenario every person in this country could be against a policy and it is quite possible it could be railroaded through by elected representatives of other countries.
Hardly reflects the meaning of democracy!
I won’t even bother with the argmuents around how ‘democratic’ the EU could ever be…..
I agree that there would be far fewer tears shed within the Conservative ranks if the electorate voted to withdraw but I can’t imagine that any of the major party leaderships would relish the idea of implementing such an enforced withdrawal over a parliamentary term (and no doubt that would be the electorate’s expectation). Might own view is that the ‘immediate withdrawal’ scenario can be likened to a car crash with none of the passengers wearing seat belts.
I am Eurosceptic but I am not daft enough to believe for one minute the immediate withdrawal is a realistic option. Nor do I believe that there are no valid areas where this country should co-operate with its neighbours. The issue for me is the method by which we do so and the current centrlising EU is not the way to do it.
Ben Brogan on Nick Clegg’s Hissy Fit
“I sympathise with the Speaker: is the Lib Dem leader’s internal difficulties on his referendum commitment really a matter for the Commons?”
94. My not Might
102. But the same logic applies to the treaty referendum.
If the people were allowed to vote no, then we stop where we are.
If the people vote yes, then we become more integrated under the terms of the Lisbon Treaty.
And from there we move to the Irish system of a referendum on all further European treaties to lance the festering boil.
Simple!
(As stated earlier, if we voted no it would be very messy I’m sure, but hey, sometimes democracy is messy!).
108. I think ‘festering boil’ is a bit strong. Annoying itch is a bit more accurate. Other than on the internet I can count on the fingers of no hands the amount of times somebody has complained to me about our constitutional relationship with Europe.
Immigration -yes
The French - yes
Religion - certainly
Brussels - no
If it wasn’t for Murdoch’s self-interested campaigning on this, I doubt it would even register as a national issue.
Back to topic, re. 10, how about George Mitchell? Or Ohio Governor Ted Strickland?
Re. 68, I thought it was funny and telling. Most of all, I like how Hillary’s being herself (sarcastic, no-nonsense, or - with her ‘Shame on you Barack Obama’ outburst - feisty). It’s when she pretends to be nice or sincere (as on her grisly YouTube announcement that she was in the race) that she’s unbearable.
For those who think Obama can pull it off in Ohio (a big, big ask) Paddy Power’s odds of 1.75/1 really do stand out, with VC Bet next best at 1.375/1, Betfair at 1.222/1 (excl comm’n) and Ladbrokes bringing up the rear (Shadsy please note) with meagre odds of evens. Can’t see PP’s odds lasting another hour, if that.
Maybe not George Mitchell, what with his prostate cancer.
I know the Lib Dems have to put up a candidate for mayor, but it does seem a little bit academic. With Boris and Ken, two very well known figures, duking it out what chance does a plank of wood with a yellow rosette stand?
Davey is a dimwit. Yes, the whole nation is gagging for a referendum about membership, and nobody in the whole country is even slightly peeved that the two leftish parties lied about the EU Consti-treaty referendum. What a twerp.
Further, SeanT is Sir Michael Lord and I claim my lifetime supply of red leicester.
To drift back on topic, much has been said of the thinning of Labour’s activist base and membership. It will be interesting to see how significant the effect it has upon Ken’s chances will be.
108. But there aren’t going to be any further Treaties. Under the passerelle clause of the Lisbon Treaty, the Constitution of the EU becomes self-amending - all the governments have to do is agree, and - voila! - it is done.
There won’t be any more grand negotiations, no more Maastrichts or Nices or Lisbons. From now on, EU integration will just be enacted quietly and discreetly in Brussels, then whipped through the Commons on a wet Tuesday afternoon.
And no one will object, because, as Lib Dems constantly tell us “no one cares”.
The passerelle clause is yet another reason why we need a referendum on this Treaty. But europhiles don’t like to talk about it. Europhiles really are the most abject vermin.
“abject vermin.” wow
sounds like you need that boil lanced.
109. Fair enough - maybe a little strong on my part.
And I agree that it isn’t people’s number one concern - crime, health, education, immigration are all higher in people’s list of concerns because these are issues that effect them every day, unlike the relationship between the EU’s President and Foreign Minister! I’m sure I’ve seen people mentioning a poll where it was the key issue for 2% of voters at some point in the not to distant past.
But most people aren’t single issue voters - Europe bugs people, it just isn’t top of the list. But they do want a say - cf. 70% wanting a referendum on th treaty.If they knew they were going to have a say whenever something was going to change, this concern would undoubtedly be eased.
My God they’ve even started to believe their own spin “”This is an outrageous day. We have been gagged. This is a bad day for British democracy. The Speaker’s office has refused to accept our amendment and is denying us the chance to honour our manifesto commitment.”
“Honour our manifesto commitment”? So the old excuse of there being no commitment has gone; the Lib Dems believe they did indeed commit. Now they just need to remember that what they committed to was not an In/Out Referendum but to ratification subject to a referendum of the British people. If they are really so keen on honouring their commitment there is an amendment due up for vote which offers just such ratification.
The LD walk out tactic is admittedly quite silly, but tends to work pretty well as far as publicity goes. I think the Republicans used it a week ago in connection to the so-called Protect America Act.
Very few of the LD’s proposals have a cat in hell’s chance of going through at the moment. Their support of nationalizing NR probably delayed that decision by a fortnight.
Therefore I must ask: why is the membership referendum proposal getting such a strongly antagonistic response here? Particularly from the Tories, although there are more of them around.
I venture that there are a couple of reasons. Firstly, they fear the results of what may be a popular proposal. Joe Public has, after all, been told for years of the evils of the European project, courtesy of Murdoch et al. (I’m not saying the Brits would like it otherwise, just that the media has an effect). Secondly, the Tories in particular hate being forced to argue about EU membership, because it seems to contradict their own stance. They may find themselves admitting a lack of coherency, or saying other such politically lunatic things. This is lethal to their electoral prospects. The Tories get real votes, and real seats, because the public believe in their Euroscepticism. The LDs are mounting a sneak attack on what should be a fortified position.
The right thing for the LDs to do now is to offer a Treaty vote as the second of two questions, the first being the In/Out question.
109. If it wasn’t for Murdoch’s self-interested campaigning on this, I doubt it would even register as a national issue.
And what a damning statement of the state of our political system that is.
Politicians allowing the electorate to sleepwalk into a scenario where potentially they will lose virtually all their democratic rights and potentially be ruled by what can be likely best be described as an authoritarian oligarchy.
It only strengthens the arguments of those who have turned their backs on our political system out of synicism, distrust and disillusionment!
117. Goodness their mendacity knows no bounds. This is really desperate stuff - what a sad excuse for a political party.
118 - one of the least appealing traits about the Lib Dems is their penchant for gesture politics. Voting Lib Dem (tactically) is a very serious option for me, but they’re going the wrong way about persuading this floating voter. Utterly juvenile.
Perhaps the Lib Dem spinners on here can now clarify whether their stance is intended to allow them to carry out their manifesto commitment…
…or whether that commitment is in fact dead as a result of their having not won the 2005 GE - the argument that they were all using earlier on today!!!
118. Yes, you have a point - about embarrassing the Tories - but the Lib Dems won’t do that sensible thing - offer a two question referendum - because THE LIB DEMS REALLY ARE LYING EUROPHILE W*NKERS.
This is the only explanation for their bizarre behaviour so far. They really genuinely believe in the EU project to the extent they will betray manifesto promises, lie to the electorate, look stupid in the commons, split the party in two, and support a struggling Labour government which regards them, in turn, with hatred and contempt.
For the Lib Dem leadership the EU is a matter of faith and creed. To question it is blasphemy. That is the only logic that explains their self-destructive behaviour so far. They don’t care if their own party fails, and their own electorate deceived, as long as Brussels thrives.
Not for nothing is the Lib Dem leader in Strasbourg a man who hopes “the English can be defeated”.
49. FP = Foreign Policy
What SeanT said… (but maybe toned down a little)!
The Speaker (whoever it is) is part of the Lab-Con coalition which runs Parliament and it is about time the LDs stuck a spoke in his anti-democratic works. This should have been done long ago.
Ted Strickland is a big Hillary supporter, and only a new Governor. In the running, but I doubt a likely choice.
Wonder if, on the Ohio note, McCain might look to someone like Voiovich (Mayor, Governor, now US Senator).
Need to get back to work - have a good night all
It seems that the lib dems are desperate to reclaim the righteous rebel status that they claimed during the Iraq War. Having a hissy fit in the Commons isn’t going to achieve it though.
New thread - Ken falls 5% behind Boris in new London poll
126, and yet Calamity was shining the Speaker’s shoe buckles yesterday.
122
The Lib Dems will be telling us next that they believe in local democracy.
129. I wonder if Clegg now regrets offering support to the Speaker?
126 Presumably you agree with the Lib Dem frontbencher quoted in the Telegraph ” “This is a Labour Speaker and we know the Labour Party don’t want a referendum. We know whose side he’s on,”
Come on now, one third of your MPs want a referendum on the Treaty, you are being got at by a biased Labour Speaker out to get you (or as in last PMQs to forget you), leave the Dark Side, come on, its just a short step to fulfilling your manifest commitment.
78 Mike just to remind us, isn’t there some rule about making the data known if you release the headlines- I remember the TOries had to do this at some point..
A couple of responses to different threads -
Good to see that so many Lib Dem MPs are breaking ranks over the treaty referendum, the Clegg position is both counter-productive and potentially suicidal, that fact that he so blithely got himself into this particular mess does not bode well.
Thriller names and titles for Seant -
Dark Hearts, Empty Days by Rocco Lee Jackson
Instructions to Remember by Daniel Prime
Ground Plan for a Clown House by Michael Cutko
Okay, maybe not the last one but I’d love to see what it might be about.
Finally, Ed Davey is the Lib Dems’ Balls, keep him out of sight as much as possible.
AVE IT’S EARLY EVENING POLITICAL REPORT
—————————————
1. Welcome back Jack W
2. LDs continue to be HAHAHAHAHAHA!
111 As anticipated, Paddy Power have now chopped Obama back from 1.75/1 to 1.25/1 against his winning Ohio.
Kathleen Sebelius has been my choice for Obama since he became a serious candidate. The state of the union reply is rather treated as the guy cleaning up after the Lord Mayor’s parade. Her less than stellar performance was only discussed by the political glitterati here in the US.
What is more she will keep the Clintonistas on board and help with those red states in the mid-west that are trending purple. My real concern is that McCain will pressurise the Rice woman to be his Veep. That might inflict some damage on the Obama ticket.
Lots of stuff to keep us interested. By the way, why is British political life sooooooo tedious at the moment? I’m a sociaist, but think Boris might just be what is needed after suffering the dreary Cameron boy and the deadly dull Brown. And who is Nick Clegg, anyway?
Malcolm
If Obama chooses Cllllllinton as his VP running mate then we might just as well all go and kill ourselves and have done with it.
In any case, take the chance and vote YES or NO at http://www.FreeEurope.info
Re. 127, Voinovich is rather highly strung, and prone to bursting into tears. A highly strung and tearful running mate probably isn’t the best thing for 71 year old McCain.
139. McCain needs to go with a GOP veep (so no Dems or Indies like Bloomberg) if he’s only going to stay for one term. The veep would be the presumptive nominee in 2012.
Charlie Crist has to be good bet. Large Dem-leaning state with a popular GOP governor…
I still think an Obama / Richardson ticket would be on despite concerns that it’s not ‘white’ enough - two mixed race men on the ticket with a blend of ‘change’ and ‘experience’ would be eminently electable. It would help to deal with some of Obama’s negatives IMHO.
BTW I think the US has more of a problem with women politicians than with ‘presentable’ non-white politicians. I have to admit I’m a Clintonista…
Regardless, I still think that it’s McCain’s to lose.
126 - Couldn’t agree more
118 - Agreed
113 - I reckon SeantT is Michael Lord’s grandfather - look foward tos eeing the monicle and handlebar moustache at a pbc party.
125 - Why tone it down ? It just shows an argument loser resorting to vitriol