Ken falls 5% behind Boris in new London poll
February 26th, 2008
Is the Mayor being hit by all bad publicity?
A new YouGov poll for London ITV News has Ken fallen 5% behind Boris in the race for the London Mayoralty. These ae the shares compared with the last proper survey from the firm in December - JOHNSON 44%(nc): LIVINGSTONE 39%(-5): PADDICK 12%(+5)
The YouGov boss, Peter Kellner has confirmed to me that the survey took place from Tuesday to Thursday of last week and involved a sample of 1,003. In a TV interview this evening Kellner said that he thought that “Ken was in Trouble”.
In response Livingstone has said that Labour’s private polling is showing that he is still ahead - by 2% of those certain to vote. This is from a survey from Ipsos-MORI. When I see the detail I will give it prominence.
I contacted the pollster this evening for the information and was told that information about the survey would be made available within the time-frame laid down - which is two days.
What are critical are the dates of the fieldwork for the Ipsos-MORI survey. Did this take place at the same time or is it a bit old or newer?
In the mayoral betting you can still get 6/4 on Boris which seems like a bargain.
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Hooray for Bozza.
Haven’t been impressed by BoJo’s campaign so far, but I think Ken might just be self-destructing all by himself.
I wonder how many Labour MPs and activists will shed a silent cheer - if Red Ken goes down to defeat.
Looking at the change in vote share from last time, rather than the actual shares… go Paddick
In reality, that 6/4 surely aint going to last long, should be evens at best, if not 4/6 IMHO.
1. He’s saving his powder for the moment (I hope). Waiting til he can see the whites of Ken’s eyes. Things will kick off from Easter - although election expenses rules kick in on March 12th, so London based PBers can expect a flurry of paper clogging their doorways before then.
For those thinking Obama is just about speech-making:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120398899374792349.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
To my innocent eye it seems that Ken’s loss has been Brian’s gain with Boris’s share staying the same. Does that tell us anything profound?
Obviously good news for Boris, but it’s a long time yet to polling day.
5. Left-oriented voters are recoiling from Livingstone in disgust?
Mike, why do you have a picture of Gollum next to Paddick and Johnson?
Speaking to a couple of Labour friends in London at the weekend and 2 voters who have voted for Ken in the past 2 election tell me they are now intending to vote for Boris Johnson this time. They said that the ‘corrupt people around Ken Livingstone’ is the main reason’for the vote change. I tried to dig deeper but they were a bit coy. I don’t know what they mean.
4 Change the name to Boris Johnson in that article rather than Reagan - “banal and shallow, a mouther of right-wing platitudes,”,”his Johnson-as-a-simpleton view was a caricature …. That his opponents never got this is what led to their undoing. Those critics who giggled ..”,”Boris’s “secret weapon” was that “Labour fail to take him very seriously.”
10. Indeed, Boris Johnson’s educational attainment shows he can be a serious intellectual. It’s just hidden under his flair for showiness.
6
Not being a Londoner,( I was for the first 28 yrs of my life) how do second preferences affect the raw 1st vote. I cannot see those voting for Boris who would have voted for Ken then voting for him as second preferebce. If Boris is ahead, I think Ken might be in more than “a bit of trouble”??? Am I right or have I got it wrong ?
As the other candidates gain a higher profile than they are bound to gain a larger share of the vote. This will hurt Ken more because left leaning voters have more choice. (Lib dems, greens respect BNP etc.)
For Boris to win he needs to increase turnout amongst residents living in Ealing, Harrow, Hillingdon, Hounslow etc. It will all come down to turnout, very few voters will swith straight from Ken to Boris.
so DC is 11% clear, SNP going great guns and Boris is 5% clear….. the writing is on the wall for Labour everywhere.
9 I assume it is to do with the allegations that Ken’s special adviser, Lee Jasper, has made a number of grants to various organisations that he has personal links with and/or which have gone bust/not filed accounts etc.
These stories have been filling the pages of the Evening Standard and a Channel 4 Dispatches programme recently.
It implies that the polls putting Paddick on about 1% were a load of tosh. Perhaps this one is a load of tosh too. Who knows?
What percentage of Londoners are aware the election is on? (At a guess, no more than 30%. What percentage of Scots were aware of the Scottish elections a few days before them last year - I remember the figure was pitifully low.)
Well The Newt need not worry..now all those 100 great artists and acedemics like Billy ‘throwback’ Bragg and Baldric have told Londoners to Vote for Red Ken, he will be back in front in no time.
The aura of inevitability is fading from the Old Trot. Still can’t quite believe Boris can do it but I am beginning to hope at least.
I recognize Hugh Paddick and Betty Marsden. Who is the other one ?
Hmm Direct transfer to Paddick. Won’t they simply flip to Ken in the 2nd round possibly
14. … until Boris actually starts running London.
Will Paddick get Boris elected?
12 Rules are that if a ballot gives a first and second preference to the top two candidates in either order, then their second preference is not counted, so that a second preference cannot count against a first. In last election Livingstone got around 107,000 second preference votes from Norris first preference voters and Norris around 97,000 from Livingstone voters.
19. The election will be decided on first preferences, unless it is knife-edge. Taking as an example the Scottish local elections under STV last year you’re lucky if 60% of transfers go to your own party, never mind a different one.
A couple of responses to different threads (didn’t realise there was a new one!) -
Good to see that so many Lib Dem MPs are breaking ranks over the treaty referendum, the Clegg position is both counter-productive and potentially suicidal, that fact that he so blithely got himself into this particular mess does not bode well.
Thriller names and titles for Seant -
Dark Hearts, Empty Days by Rocco Lee Jackson
Instructions to Remember by Daniel Prime
Ground Plan for a Clown House by Michael Cutko
Okay, maybe not the last one but I’d love to see what it might be about.
Finally, Ed Davey is the Lib Dems’ Balls, keep him out of sight as much as possible.
19 How? Assume heroically Boris gets 45% on first preferences, he still need 5% more as Paddick’s vote is carved up correct
+23+
Last week was half term. Won’t some Londoners (especially those who live in more prosperous areas) have been on hols? Might this have had some effect?
If half of Kensington, Westminster, Bromley, Sutton, Kingston and Richmond were away, this poll might seriously overstate Ken.
15 - thanks - they don’t mention these in the Dundee Courier.
28 - I dare say Dundee politics gets little coverage in the Standard.
What was the Poll regional numbers
24. Hey - thanks!
Daniel Prime is a jolly good name for a thriller writer. Crucially the surname is short, but striking. I can see it in big gold letters:
The new Daniel PRIME thriller.
Yes. Nice one. Ta! Am gonna send it to my agent and publishers and see what they say.
Seeing as you are on a roll, any more ideas on the title? Yours are good but don’t quite fit the book.
Here’s the plot. It’s about interbreeding between evil hominids and homo sapiens in the late Ice Age; the evil hominids thereby infiltrate their genes for violence and sacrifice into the human repertoire.
All of it is tied in with the Bible, Genesis, ancient Turkish temples, the Yezidi, and the Hellfire club - of course. But the central theme is the tainted bloodline of modern humanity.
BTW I haven’t forgotten my lunchoffer..
At last! Some good numbers for Paddick. All seems too little too late, however. I would have thought that being up against the repugnant Livingstone and the laughable Johnson, he’d have stood a good chance.
O/T I notice the Deputy Governor of the BofE is saying we have ‘the largest ever peacetime liquidity crisis’. I know it isn’t good news, but I do think a shock might be just what this country needs to knock us out of our complacency.
31 seanT. And presumably how all this heady cocktail leads to British slavery within the EU ???
The largest peacetime liquidity crisis there’s a surprise,where’s this guy been for the past few years?
Sean T Where is the kitchen sink? Clown Down the Line by Danielle Prime.
AVE IT’S EARLY EVENING POLITICAL REPORT
—————————————
1. Welcome back Jack W
2. LDs continue to be HAHAHAHAHAHA!
The Islamic reformation is under way:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7264903.stm
34 this guy is a gal - consider yourself assigned to a diversity awareness seminar. The name Rachel Lomax is a clue as to gender for those of us with English as a mother tongue.
She should really be in with a shout of being governor next time round.
32 Frank B A look at the mortgage providers suggests that whatever the BoE do on interest rates mortgages are going to be more difficult to get and more expensive.
Nationwide leads the mutuals in raising mortgage rates and benchmarks, and even Northern Crock has stopped offering 125% mortgages. Indeed there is a suspicion that they are making conditions so tight and difficult that they are stopping lending altogether for new customers and any old customers who are not AAA rated.
32
And waht is the BOE doing about liquidity?
Nothing.
You could not make it up: imo they are seriously and dangerously incompetent. I reckon if the UK banks had not been able to borrow from the ECB, we’d see a MAJOR liquidity crisis already in the UK. Like new mortgage issues cut 50%.
31. So if this mixing is based around the Near East, does that mean that the Native Americans were untainted? How about the Chinese?
“The Genesis Deception”
“Demon DNA”
“Eden’s Evil”
“Under Eden”
“Echoes of the Fall”
“Lucifer’s Deception”
Looks like Ken’s in trouble. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer fella.
31. The Darkness Within.
How I missed the joy of “Ave it” …
In depth political anal ysis wrapped in the humour of Sooty !! …. glad you haven’t got a hand in my ARSE !!
Matthew Corbett GAINS EVERYWHERE …. he’ll SWEEP the nation SUE for PM …. Conservatives lose Watford.
44 - welcome back, old bean. Been missing you. How’s your ARSE?
40 Madasafish Your wish is the lenders command I think. All the falls in the volume of mortgages taken out may well not be simply customers caution, rather customers unable or unwilling to pay the price now demanded.
The front loading is fierce and Nationwide now expects to lend no more than 75% of the capital value. Tough for first time buyers, and plenty of fixed term borrowers in for a tough time trying to roll the mortgage over as they have been able to do for the last few feckless years of ‘prudence and stability’.
31. How about “The Shadow Beneath”?
44 Where ARSE leads the voters follow!
Con gain EU.
Boris’s clumsy handling of interviews isn’t an act. He’s just not very good at political questioning. That doesn’t make him thick. It says nothing about his putative competence as mayor.
As nationally, the tories can’t win. But Ken can lose. And if you thinks that Ken’s good value @ 1/2, you are not a regular winner….
49 - “He’s just not very good at political questioning.” = not good at dealing with people who are addressing serious matters. Not thick agreed. But competent? Not sure.
Some nice title ideas, thanks guys. Do keep them coming, if you can be remotely bothered. None of them quite rock my coracle, but definitely on the right lines.
I’m getting the last train to bedsville now but I will reread in the morning.
41. Ah, but the evil hominids descended unto the Levant from Siberia and north east Asia - and from thee they also spread across the Bering Straits to America.
We are all tainted!
Sawadee….
Christopher Magg in Cleveland Ohio reports for “Time” on the ground war in the Primary race.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1717150,00.html
………………………….
45 SBS. Never better thanks.
31. Bloodlines - are you taking inspiration from David Icke? Still I can think of a few ‘modern’ leaders who may fit the description.
Yes of course Boris is going to be the next london mayor…DONT BE SO FECKIN RIDICULOUS
36.
“LDs continue to be HAHAHAHAHAHA!”
Presumably a good sense of humour then, as opposed to ‘ave it’ who is basically the same bad joke on a ‘repeat’ loop. Yawn.
55 - are you Mark Senior in disguise LOL
FOOTBALL
——–
Stoke = HAHAHAHAHA. The long wait since 1985 continues……
harking back to the last thread you’ve certainly moved the price Mike as she’s now only 15/8 on Betfair and probably not any value.
I did discover to my pleasant surprise that I’d not recorded a lay on Livingstone at 1.47 so I’ve topped that up by backing Boris.
New SUSA polls:
Ohio: Clinton 50 Obama 44
Texas:
McCain 49 Clinton 43
McCain 49 Clinton 41
The Clinton lead continues to narrow in Ohio. At this rate it is likely to be 51-49 either way. The Texas results are surprisingly close, perhaps a slight worry for McCain. It is also unusual in showing Clinton doing better than Obama.
What Livingtone will salvage is that the movement seems to be from him to Paddick. He’s likely to retain most of that support on second preference, but it’ll mean a pretty close election.
Watching that lib dem strop was amazing, especially Davey whining ‘this debate is what the people want’ then a few hours later listening to the lib dems claim the public don’t really care about the treaty. Hague’s ripping apart of the lib dems stance and his quote ‘I hadnt seen so many lib dems in the house since the last by-election, I thought one of us might be ill’ was entertaining on its own.
61 - its been said before but:
LDs = hahaha… (you know the rest)
61. Just how many hours a day do you spend watching and listening to Lib Dems then? Still, everyone has to have a hobby I suppose.
63. Not much, I saw ed daveys little rant on the bbc website just now and flicked over to BBC parliament earlier after I read about the paddy and walk out and saw hague taking a swipe at the lib dems, that was about it. Whats your hobby, being slightly sarcastic to people with differing opinions to you?
Hague certainly is good at the HofC put-downs. Sadly it doesn’t travel outside the village.
65. it was entertaining, but then again I am tanked up on cough and flu medicine and exhausted.
61 the debate in the house shows how utterly shocking this treaty is. Parliament is voting itself out of business.
65.I thought that Peter Hoskin’s take on the Libdems parliamentary tantrum in the HoC was priceless.
Taking leave of their senses
I particularly enjoyed this bit, “It’s one thing to enshrine a red herring as party policy, but running round and slapping everyone in the face with it is quite another.”
Very difficult for livingstone to survive against the relentless efforts of london’s leading (only) newspaper to carry out a character assassination. He’s lucky to be facing Boris. I suspect someone who knows what he’s doing like Norris would be well ahead by now.
Enough of the voters-such as the people living in outer London-are so little affected by a rubbish mayor that they might well vote for Boris out of spite! However all is not lost! Ken is still the master tactician and I expect him to pull something out of the hat!
69 I expect him to pull something out of the hat!
probably a bottle of Johnny Walker red label
my bet with Nick Palmer looks more prescient by the day as I got 2-1. The best thing about King Newt losing though will be that the cats of broxtowe don’t get their hands on any more of my money.
69, didn’t people used to call Comrade Brown a master tactician?
“Seeing as you are on a roll, any more ideas on the title?
It’s about interbreeding between evil hominids and homo sapiens in the late Ice Age; the evil hominids thereby infiltrate their genes for violence and sacrifice into the human repertoire.”
‘Cold Day In Hell’
‘Homini Homonum’
‘Cold Homos Are Evil’
‘Homo Omen’
‘Arthur Scargill And The Woolly Mammoth’
‘The Labour Party, The Time Machine and The Fall of Man’
‘Alien vs. Predator vs. Gordon Brown’
‘I, Lefty’
‘Huge Genetic F**uUp - The Novel’
‘Sh1t!’
Strong support for the Lib Dem MPs walk out here: http://www.libdemvoice.org/
A good point made that Tory membership would love an EU referendum. And that if the Tories’ attempts to push for a vote in the Commons had been blocked the right-wing blogosphere would be spitting chips!
73
That really surprises me that Lib Dem supporters and activists on their own website are supporting their own MP’s,truly sensational.
“Strong support for the Lib Dem MPs”
From the Libdem-Voice…what a shock!
31 - Nurse is the bed ready for Mr Thomas?
74 - in which case, you don’t understand Lib Dem activists very well
73: “Lib Dems back Lib Dems”
In other news: Pope “is a catholic”
66. You have my sympathy. I had a particularly bad day at work and am working my way through a six-pack of Norwegian beer. It doesn’t taste so bad if you drink it quickly enough.
[THIS COMMENT IS BEING MODERATED BECAUSE IT MAKES POINTS WHICH COULD BE DEFAMATORY - ms]
Here is some sobering news for you. For the Tories to gain a majority, they need to wipe the lib dems off the map, ie leave the LDs with under 10 seats, opposed to their current 66.
69 and 71 No, before last October he was supposedly the master strategist. This is on a much more elevated plane than a grubby tactician
*** Excellent London will become the world laughing stock ***
Interesting! Looks as though 2nd prefs may be important - didn’t YouGov ask at all about them? And how many gav ea 2nd preference last time, do we know? I’d suspect it’d be more in a high-profile London race than the Scottish STV election mentioned upthread.
Welcome back, Jack W!
“Here is some sobering news for you. For the Tories to gain a majority, they need to wipe the lib dems off the map, ie leave the LDs with under 10 seats, opposed to their current 66.”
It’s not going to be that easy!
interesting to see the Scottish First Minister still fancies a day out in London every so ofter
84 - Stephan Shakespeare lost Colchester for the Tories in 1997? or 2001?
It’s not going to be that easy!
by 601 February 26th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
NO… It isnt going to happen !!!!
Boris as Mayor, poor London, all the road signs will be in Latin
80. “collocating” - I consider myself moderately well-educated but what does this mean, when its at home?
“For the Tories to gain a majority, they need to wipe the lib dems off the map”
Well, Mrs T got a healthy majority in 1983 with the Alliance getting 26% of the vote.
‘I think you will also find that the YouGov founder, was also the editor of the London standard’
Compelling though your nutty posts are-this is factually incorrect!
80. The same pollsters which were giving Gordon Brown a ten point lead a while back? The same pollsters which tend to give Labour a few points above their actual election result every time round?
Facts then please Roger
‘I think you will also find that the YouGov founder, was also the editor of the London standard’
Compelling though your nutty posts are-this is factually incorrect!
by Roger February 26th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
“all the road signs will be in Latin”
That’s actually quite funny
btw You spelt ‘implies’ and ‘positive’ incorrectly, perhaps you should brush up on your Latin.
Sorry 89 it should have been
collating NOT collocating
89 collocate vb transitive to arrange , place side by side noun word which frequently qualifies another
Spin Cynic and other names - I’ve put you on moderation hold because you cannot make defamatory allegations. Also it is an absolute requirement for posting here that you provide an accurate email address.
95. Well done Mike.
93. 94. Thanks for clearing that up. (I had assumed the intended word was ‘calculating’)
And now people will wonder what the heck we are blethering on about because post 80 has disappeared. I’ll open another can…
London poll - fantastic news for the Tories
London poll - terrible news for the Tories
Both statements equally true. Funny old world innit…
Of course what some above fail to mention is that the current President and also founder of Yougov is Peter Kellner who is married to Baroness Ashton of Upholland. LABOUR peer and Leader Of The House Of Lords (according to Wikipedia).
Accusations that there is a bias at Yougov would seem highly unlikely…..
Mike,
Could you confirm that we are witnessing the return of the real Jack W and not some ARSE-wielding imposter?
80 - And who is the other founder of YouGov?
31.
Blood Evil
Historia Sanguinae
Mainline
Genie Allergy
Blood Flow
Tainted
I think the poll is good for Boris and the Conservatives, especially when you consider the organisational advantages that the Conservatives enjoy. I also think one needs to analyse why Ken was so desperate to rejoin Labour before the last Mayoral poll, and why Labour rolled over so easily. I would posit that it was to the advantage of each and that they were concerned that the scenario would be that Livingstone support would have dipped and transferred to Gavron and that Steve Norris would have shot through the middle. To avoid that Ken was parachuted back into Labour and the rest is history.
I have a blog post that details this theory and a few more ideas about this election, apologies for the outrageous plug!
re 100 I am unable to confirm anything about JackW - whoever she might be.
Does anyone know any sites which will be streaming the NBC debate tonight?
104. Now now Michelle.
Speaking of outrageous plugs, what has happened to Benedict White?
lol some MPs really must love the sound of their own voice - why else do they speak?
Some Labour MP from Preston just announced that the only thing preventing the EU accounts being signed off is that the auditors can’t be bothered!
105 toontoon. It’s being streamed live here :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
BBC’s Justin Webb openly discussing risk of assassination of Obama, making comparison with MLK and RFK, saying the Secret Service has been massively increased in recent days “to keep him alive….”
But Farrakan has endorsed Obama, so his chance of assassination is much reduced.
But, I doubt that is what the BBC meant..
Both Democrats and Republicans forsee Obama as the Democrat contender and more likely to defeat McCain than Clinton :
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104554/Democrats-Republicans-Obama-Likely-Win-Nomination.aspx
109 - Thank you
A new SUSA poll for Ohio shows the Clinton lead shrinking to 6% from 17% two weeks ago :
Clinton 50% .. Obama 44%
McCain 59% .. Huckabee 28%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1de3c664-db0a-42fd-a4ca-95348e2dcc7c
31 - SeanT not sure what you will make of the following, probably not a lot but here goes.
The Ottoman Helix
The Ingress of Man
The Hominid Spiral
and if you were wanting something rather different…
De Sanguis Hominii
which I am assured means Of human blood in Latin.
110. Sadly, I believe Obama may well end being assasinated. Its always struck me, that there are certain forces in America that will *NEVER* allow a black man to become President. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve always been concerned about how this is going to end up….
Why do people worry about Obama being shot? Surely the other candidates are at just as much risk. Or must we postulate a group of mad racists who, nonetheless, have been quite happy with Black Chiefs of Staff, Secretaries of State, Supreme Court Justices and the like?
Lots of talk about Obama and Clinton
BUT funny how all the Tory bloggers go all shy when it comes to Cameron backing McCain… Yes he did, on radio 5 live a few weeks ago
I can only imagine by the number of posters who are entering the ‘Champagne lunch for two at Groucho’s competition’ that they have no idea of the damage to their future political careers being seen in that well known Soho hostelry with the 2004 winner of the ‘worst sex in literature’!!
A few ideas for seant to play around with, the first one seems to fit the best -
The Children of Fire and Light *
Descent of Man **
One Flesh ***
* Playing on the word Lucifer, with the dual meanings of light as life giver and as life destroyer.
** Used by Darwin I know, but not with the dual meaning of bloodline and fall.
*** Biblical and also Milton - Paradise Lost, a bit too Philip Pullman maybe.
“Our state cannot be severed; we are one,
One flesh; to lose thee were to lose myself. ”
I was trying to play around with descent and dissent but couldn’t get very far, same with the Yazidi ideas of Satan as the Peacock King and the children of Eve being insects and vermin.
If it was more Judaism based I’d have suggested -
‘Torah! Torah! Torah!’
Is the Clinton campaign simply out of this wolrd or in an “alternate universe”. Mmmhhhh…..
http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/26/clinton-campaign-in-%e2%80%9calternate-universe%e2%80%9d/
I’ve done some number-crunching on the published work on the 2004 mayoral election analysis that I referred to a couple of weeks ago.
Specifically, the “vote-splitting” when voters who identified with one particular party (eg the Conservatives) cast their vote(s) for the candidate for another party (eg Livingstone). Table 4 of the linked pdf refers.
Unfortunately:
- the data was gleaned (it appears) from polling rather than details of the actual votes - this leads to questions of past-vote recall and weighting
- the breakdown for Others apart from UKIP is not available
- the data for the Conservatives appears to have suffered from errors beyond merely rounding, as the total is only 94% (ie 94% of those who went to the polls to cast some kind of vote chose Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Other or did not cast a first vote for mayor (ie voted Assembly or Euro election only) … which does not seem to compute)
With all of the above provisos, I’ve attempted to reverse the calculations to produce the actual numbers of Tories, Labourites, LDs etc out of the 1,863,671 valid votes cast (so as to spot whether Norris would in fact have won if he’d held on to all of the Tories - or even just done as well as Livingstone in hanging on to his own party supporters)
Assumptions:
-using UKIP percentages to extrapolate for Others (19% first vote for Labour, 4% for Tories, 7% for LDs, 70% for Others)
-add the “missing 6%” of Tories to LDs, Others and No Vote to make the same percentages as Labourites for those categories (the Tory-to-Livingstone cross-voting was specifically confirmed in the text so I’ve left that alone)
-assume weighting to overcome past-vote-recall issues is accurate.
-Figures are artificially exact when the above constraints are taken into account
Conclusions:
Tories: 644,307. Of these: 59,781 voted for Ken, 498,176 for Norris, 39,854 for Hughes, 46,496 for Others (A further 19,927 Tories were at the polls for the other contests and cast no vote for Mayor)
Labour: 612,213. Of these: 511,229 voted for Ken, 18,934 for Norris, 37,869 for Hughes, 44,180 for Others (18,934 other Labourites did not vote for Mayor)
LD: 259,628. Of these: 48,502 for Ken, 11,412 for Norris, 182,595 for Hughes, 17,118 for Others (25,667 no votes)
Others: 347,524. Of these: 66,030 for Ken, 13,901 for Norris, 24,327 for Hughes, 243,267 for Others.
So - Ken won by building a broader coalition. Norris’s failure to hold on to his own supporters hurt - but even if he’d done exactly as well as Ken in those terms (ie held on to 81% of his own party, like Ken did with Labour), he’d still have failed as that would only have closed the gap by 80,000 of the 140,000+ first preference votes. He needed to do that and siphon off some of the LDs who went to Ken (17% of the LD total as against the 4% of LDs that Norris won) and some of the Others.
So - implications for 2008. The questions that we need answered are:
- What change in the “base numbers” of Tories, Labourites, Lib Dems and Others will there be, measured from 2004? Tories are up by 5-10% in national polls since then, Labour down by 0-3%, Lib Dems down by 0-5% and UKIP (most prominent of the Others of 2004) have fallen off of the radar. But what about London specifically?
- How well will Boris and Paddick do in comparison to their predecessors in holding onto their base vote? An improvement by Boris to Ken-like-levels could well be enough if the base level of Tories has increased by a few percent. Or if Paddick holds on to more Lib Dems than Hughes did (preventing them from voting for Ken), would that be enough?
- Will Ken be able to siphon off the same proportion of “defecting voters” (ie, the majority of cross-party voters coming to Ken)? Will the Standard’s reporting damage this effect? Can Ken counteraact this with his Compass endorsements and the “hard-right Boris” attack?
For Sean:
“The Secret of the Blood”
118 - I for one am unlikely to have a future political career to worry about that much, not that I was motivated by inducement anyway. I try to help people because I can.
LOTS OF DELETING GOING ON.
POOR TORIES. HIDING THE TRUTH AS EVER.
DONT WORRY THERE ARE LOTS OF OTHER BLOGGS WERE THE TRUTH CAN BE TOLD
GO BACK TO SUCKING CAULSON COCK MIKE
[Delurk]
15 Men on a dead man’s chest ….
Herzliche Grussen, Herr W!
121 - I think that the Tory vote is up and more solid. Labour vote is down and less solid. Remember also that in 2006 the Conservative vote was up a lump across London, that is highly unlikely to have gone down by much if at all and is more likely ot have increased further.
125 Tabman. Sounds like a gay murder mystery !!
Hope you are keping well, you old focusmonger.
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum!
I’ve been catching up on Portaloo’s BBC4 inquest into the Defenestration of Mrs T.
Otherwise well, and I trust your good self.
69 Yo Roger…
A Cheque for £ 200 payable to the Royal British Legion at the ready please kind sir !
Regards
TB
Hi Tory Boy! It looks like every day’s going to be a poppy day! (I’ve started saving up)
A New LA Times/Bloomberg Nomination and Presidential Poll
Obama 48% .. Clinton 42%
McCain 46% .. Clinton 40%
McCain 44% .. Obama 42%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/feb%2021-25%20bloomberg%20la%20times%20poll.pdf
………………………
128 Tabman. Much much better thanks. Hope to see you come out to play more often.
Looking at the SUSA Texas match-up numbers, it looks like the state could be competitive in November. Of course it is just one poll (although a big sample size of 1700+). Obama is down 49-41 against McCain but digging deeper there is upside potential for Obama.
The SUSA model has Black tunout at 11% (and they go 88-8 for Obama unsurprisingly). However in 2004 they made up 12% of voters, given Obama will likely increase Black turnout if he is the nominee, they could make up 15-16% of total voters.
Also, Clinton does better than Obama among Hispanics (55-38 v 47-41). There is no reason why once the nominee Obama could not match these numbers. These two changes alone would leave the race at roughly 47-43.
Regardless of whether the Dems can win Texas or not, if McCain has to defend it he will be severely weakened.
131 Other link to poll :
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHNnSv_JuUBw&refer=home
Iain Dale on the The Pre-Planned LibDem Stunt That Went Wrong
I dont know how to phrase this exactly - maybe i should say that i am reliably informed that the lib dems in some / particular outer boroughs are encouraging voters who are lib dem inclined to put Boris as a second choice or if not sure to vote anything but Ken — it seems the lib dems dont like ken - perhaps some lib dem inclined posters can explain or refute
ps i must declare an interest I am quite long on Boris
135. Vote Boris get Henley Bye Election!
126/135
The Com res poll had the Conservatives 45-30 ahead in the South (including London) according to Conservative Home. It seems somewhat unlikely Ken is leading in London. Perhaps the drip drip of bad press for Ken Livingstone will be as the drip drip of bap press for the Govt over Northern Rock?
87: ha, in Broxtowe we already have a road sign in Latin. A sign in highly-regarded Cossall village warns people of crossing frogs, with the sole inscription being RANA. (You think I’m joking? Certianly not!)
In the latest rally for Obama in Ohio all his supporters had to go to the “Nutter Center” in Dayton.
http://www.whiotv.com/politics/15405704/detail.html
137 - I think Ken has big problems, I have speculated on my blog as to why Ken suddenly had an enormous urge to get readmitted to Labour and they rolled over quite tamely shortly before the last Mayoral election. I think Ken has a lot of disadvantages this time round, and am surprised that everyone seems content to chalk him up as favourite. It just doesn’t make that much sense to me.
117. Because the sort of figures he is most like are John Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King.
Could May 1st be Meltdown Day for Labour? If they lose London to Brois Johnson, and then poll as badly in the local elections, with the Tories increasing on their 40% vote share of 2006 and 2007, then Labour will be in trouble.
Of course, there would be a certain irony to any meltdown happening on May 1st, as it was May 1st 1997 that Tony Blair achieved that amazing landslide. It would be kind of like everything coming full circle….
O/T - Blur drummer selected as Labour candidate in Cities of London and Westminster.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7264623.stm
Its only a few voters but thye voters I have canvassed in Highgate (Haringey where most of Highgate is) know about the London elections and are looking forward to voting out Livingstone. Of courese thgey are more Conservative than most of Harinegy but they are out to beat Ken. I got home to a lovely leaflet from our GLA candidate slamming Labour for post office closures. Laban will gain Hariney /Enfield on May 1!
140 am surprised that everyone seems content to chalk him up as favourite. It just doesn’t make that much sense to me.
I’m surprised like you James, but I doubt he’ll remain favourite for much longer especially if more polls like today’s show him trailing. I’m pleased to have secured several bets on Boris with Spreadfair’s 25-10-0 index at effective average odds of 2/1 - great value IMHO.
If stjohn’s about tonight, I’ve sold my Villa bet today for a £366 profit. Thanks for highlighting the bet here at the season’s start - top man! Wished you’d done my footy bet (which dare not speak its name) and you’d have won at least as much.
Small tightening of the Republican price on Betfair, presumably down to this recent poll. I bought a little more at 3, and will now be looking to sell at around 2.7/2.8 if this continues (as I suspect it will until at least Hillary calls it quits, which I expect mid-March, not immediately after Tuesday).
126 - The Labour vote is down, but I think it’s probably fairly solid. As far as Assembly votes should go, Labour should be guaranteed a core of about 22-23%, which should be good enough for four FPTP seats and a list seat (or two if they’re very lucky with the vote split). Livingstone’s probably got a floor of about 30% in first preference votes. That’s not enough for him to win with if he gets it, but it’s enough for him to build on in the next couple of months.
146. Peter. I’m never far away! Well done. I’m holding on to my Villa BUY position until the end of the season. It doesn’t half add a certain frisson to watching Villa play.
149 “It doesn’t half add a certain frisson to watching Villa play.”
Well I suppose it helps combat that mogadon feeling.
Nite folks.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz………
149 Yep I sold at 64 points( having bought at 51.8), Statto has them down to achieve 66 - he’s probably right, but with Spreadfair increasing their cover requirements at the same time as I wished to place more bets, it just seem sensible. I’m still holding my Derby bet, which is showing an approx £650 profit.
150 PtP You don’t sound too good old chap - hope you’re going to be fully recovered by Thurs next week.
12. It is totally unclear what you are asking, so a re-worded question would help.
22. Rules are that if a ballot gives a first and second preference to the top two candidates in either order, then their second preference is not counted, so that a second preference cannot count against a first. In last election Livingstone got around 107,000 second preference votes from Norris first preference voters and Norris around 97,000 from Livingstone voters.
You have contradicted yourself. Int he 2004 election, Livingstone didn’t get any second-preference votes from Norris voters, and Norris didn’t get any second-preference votes from Livingstone voters - precisely because those votes stayed with their first-preference.
XX. On ITV4 today there was a film about a British spy who defected to the KGB called “Phil Kimberley” so perthaps Sean Thomas could be called “Tom Shaunessy“.
153 Nice one!
Has there just been an earthquake is Manchester?
It feels like there has just been one in London
and in Lutterworth
I felt it in Liverpool. Quite scary. The whole room shook. Worse than the one in 1984, methinks…
Felt it here in Staffordshire!!!
Must have lasted more than about 12 seconds…
It didn’t feel that long here but it was quite substantial - the whole house clearly shook. I wonder where the epicentre was and what strength it was? Only just got home - glad I wasn’t driving at the time!
I thought I was having a cardiac here in N.London, lasted about 5 seconds.
That was a whopper
153 JohnLoony - they did get those votes, 107,000 Norris supporters put an x against Livingstone as their second preference but as we both agree those votes didn’t count, were ignored ain the count second preferences from the two that go through are ignored.
The supplementary vote system is a system that only values votes for the first two so in any election where, as this polls show, the first two have commanding leads over the rest of the field, a voter who gives a first preference to anyone other than Livingstone or Boris is wasting their time. They should logically give their first preference to whichever of the two they prefer and not bother with a second.
If they do want to show their preference in first vote for party loyalty or to make a statement then they should recognise that their second preferences are meaningless unless given to the first two. Last time well over a million voters gave their second preferences to candidates who were always going to be kicked out after round 1. So they had no influence over which of top two was selected.
It will happen again this time - people who vote for Paddick in first round will give their second preference as Green because that’s what they believe, but they may actually have a preference between Boris and Ken - they need to understand that if that’s the case they should show that in second preference.
Supplementary voting only comes into its own in closely contested elections between three or more candidates.
161 Yep, felt it here in Huddersield in West Yorks - lasted for about 3 seconds accompanied by a deep rumble.
Jesus, that was quite disturbing.
162 missed it here on Wilts/Dorset border
Bloody Hell. I thought I was going mad. I was sat in the armchair here in Birmingham watching the end of Portillo and Thatcher and the armchair started to vibrate. I looked round for the dog as I thought it must be her moving about but then remembered she died over a year ago! I even had a look under the armchair to see what was going on!
I felt it in bed here in Central London. Everything shook, felt the house creak. Woke my flatmate up to tell him and sure enough there was something on the radio about it.
Can someone else post just to confirm that Stonch and I are not the only people to have survived.
Still alive in Manchester. Still wondering what happened to my early night…
170. Phew! Right. Off to bed. Hope to still be around in the morning.
167 I looked round for the dog as I thought it must be her moving about but then remembered she died over a year ago! I even had a look under the armchair to see what was going on!
Looking under the armchair! You haven’t been on the juice this evening have you stjohn?
Anyway, just to confirm we’re still alive here in Hudds.
According to the Beeb, the epicentre was in Dudley.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/0_55.php
Click on the red dot for more info!!!
Mike, can we have a new thread on the impact of the earthquake on Calamity Clegg, or something like that?
4.7 on Richter scale, epicentre near the village of Holton-cum-Beckering in Lincolnshire…
173 According to the link yo providede, it was centred around Scunthorpe, not Dudley!
163. JohnLoony - they did get those votes, 107,000 Norris supporters put an x against Livingstone as their second preference but as we both agree those votes didn’t count, were ignored ain the count second preferences from the two that go through are ignored.
No they did not get those votes. Second preferences as expressed on the ballot paper are not votes until they get counted as votes. In other words, you have contradicted yourself again.