Will the Cleveland showdown change anything?
February 27th, 2008
Could Clinton’s sustained attacks impede Obama?
The final debate ahead of the critical March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio has ended with Hillary not managing to make the knock-out blow that she needed to.
My view was that she probably won on points - but only by a narrow margin. The questioning by MSNBC’s political team was much tougher than we have seen.
At one point I thought that Hillary “had” her opponent when he was pressed about an endorsement from Louis Farrakhan, the controversial Islamic minister. Obama said he denounced Farrakhan but Clinton suggested that he needed to do more and reject the endorsement. After some pressure Obama accepted the point and his good humour won it with the audience but my guess is that the Clinton spinners will point to this as a victory.
Obama was not convincing when pressed on what he would do if the Russians intervened in Kosovo. Hillary was perhaps fortunate that the question was not put to her.
The nomination betting prices have hardly moved with Obama on 0.22/1.
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Clinton needed to flatten Obama, as you say. From what I’ve been reading it was a score draw, not even a marginal win for The Hillary.
Obama is going to win, unless something really weird happens between now and March 4th. A comet strike, something like that. Or Bin Laden caucusing for Obama.
Talking of Kosovo, as you do, here’s an absolutely fascinating article in the FT:
http://tinyurl.com/3ysz9c
Seems to me this writer is spot-on. The angry reaction to Kosovo’s secession in parts of the EU means that any attempt by Scotland to join the Union would probably face similar entrenched opposition; indeed it would probably be vetoed by Spain or Cyprus or Romania etc, all the countries fearful of their own secessionist minorities. It only takes one country to veto.
That’s it. The SNP’s ideas for independence rely wholly on the Scotland-in-the-EU concept. Now this seems very shaky indeed.
What can the SNP do about this? They can argue that Kosovo is different but how can anyone know, for sure, how the other members of the EU will react? It would be a massive gamble by the Scottish voters, and a gamble Scotland could easily lose.
Scottish independence is therefore finished. This won’t percolate through to the voters for a while, but it will.
A bizarre outcome. The EU saves Britain. I’ve always liked Brussels.
I don’t know what exact reasons Spain and Romania (etc.) have for opposing Kosovo’s independence, but for me the biggest obstacle is that the declaration of independence has not been validated / authorised / ratified by a referendum, or by a vote of the parliament of the larger country (i.e. Serbia).
The parallel is that the independence of Scotland would have to be legislated by the House of Commons in Westminster, not just the Parliament in Holyrood.
Oh incidentally, the main reason for the independence of Kosovo is part of the conspiracy to ensure perennial victories by Eastern European countries in the Eurovision Sonk Ontest. It’ll probably be Vojvodina next. Kosovo and Albania will give 12 points to each other as often as Greece and Cyprus do.
1. They can argue either that Scotland is already in the EU, or that the conglomeration of England, Wales and Northern Ireland is no more or less British, at the moment, than Scotland is, and so it would be unfair for one of the successor entities to be forced to reapply and not the other. The chances of the diminished UK going through re-accession being nil, this latter argument should carry the day even if the first does not.
4. But you entirely miss the point. As the article says, the whole thing would need to be renegotiated.
The EU divides its powers by nation. Whether it was the accession of two new states - residual UK plus Scotland, or the accession of one new state - Scotland - or even two old states simply hoping to gain the powers of the single old state - the Treaty of Rome would be altered, and the division of powers in the EP and EC and the Council readjusted accordingly.
Do Scotland and residual UK both get a commissioner, for instance? Yes. But that, for a start, alters the Treaty of Rome.
Changes to the Treaty of Rome require unanimity. It only takes one EU state, just one, to merely threaten a veto and Scotland’s gamble on independence looks decidedly dodgy. And unwinnable in a referendum.
Indeed I am sure Spain (or one of the Balkan states, or Cyprus) would threaten a veto, in the sure knowledge that this would end Scottish independence, and thus not set a precedent for the Basques etc. How can the SNP prove otherwise? They simply can’t. They’d be asking their voters just to take a punt, ever-so-hopefully.
The reaction to Kosovo - which is not even applying to be a member of the EU yet - shows just how visceral the anti-secession feeling would be.
Ergo, Scottish independence is dead in the water, inasmuch as it blithely relies on the rest of the EU just happily going along with it.
2. I would suggest that the reasons for Spain are pretty obvious (Basque country). This Kosovo movement does start a dangerous precedent and there is no way that China, Russia or others will ever let it fester in the UN. Almost every significant country in the world has independency problems - India, Indinesia, Turkey, &c being cases in point.
IMHO the West, having over-hastily chosen to intervene, should never have allowed it to come to this kind of mess. The Kosovo issue really is a botched job and a half, and will create generations of ill-will amongst what should really be a pivotal country in the region.
Scotland is already a region of the EU. The next step is not Scottish independence, but the fracturing of England into regions. There are to be no nation states remaining, only regions dependent on Brussels.
Kosovo became an EU colony, not an independent nation.
Russia in Kosovo? I missed the interview, but I back Bismarck’s statement.
‘The whole of the Balkans isn’t worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.’ Russia will up the ante too far. back up on Kosovo is my advice.
The war to be should not be with Russia (for all Putin’s faults and brutish ways). We are in the middle of it anyway - the ‘war with terror’ so-called. Russia should be an ally in that war, as should Serbia. Albania is a hotbed of Islamic extremism, and is a threat to our stability and safety.
In the Balkans, Obama should swap sides.
The difference between Scotland and Kosovo is that the rest of the UK (England, Wales And Nothern Ireland - EWANIstan?) would not oppose Scotland’s independence, if the Scots wanted it.
The problem for the Nationalists is that, on the latest polls, more people are in favour of Scottish independence in England than in Scotland!
There is kind of paradox that works against the Scottish independence movement: if Scotland is perceived to be doing OK (in relation to England) then why rock the boat? but if Scotland is perceived to be doing badly vis-a-vis England, then the knee-jerk reaction is a desire to be more like England.
An aside on Spain - why did the Tories not veto Spain’s entry into the EU without Spain having to give up their claim to Gibraltar?
“The difference between Scotland and Kosovo is that the rest of the UK (England, Wales And Nothern Ireland - EWANIstan?) would not oppose Scotland’s independence, if the Scots wanted it.”
I don’t think that’s an assumption that can be made until it looks like happening. There would be significant vested interests in not allowing it (not least the interests of the Labour Party in England), and just because everyone talks a good game at present doesn’t mean they will act as they say.
Even if they got independence, I still bet that Scotland would give England “nul points” in the Sonk Ontest….and England would doubtless give the Scots 12.
Note that we did manage to stay on thread - for two paragraphs…
The way the SNP were talking yesterday it’s not even certain that they would want to join the EU. Referring to countries like Norway not joining the EU because of the Common Fisheries Policy, and being effectively being excluded from ever applying to join by its continuation.
10. I have a solution to the UK’s continuing poor performance at Eurovision. Have separate entries (and their associated votes) for Jersey, Guernsey, Gibraltar, Isle of Man …
Back on topic, how pathetic was Hillary’s whinging about always having to face the first question in debates. The poor, wee thing.
In the event of Scotland leaving the Union, it would need to reapply to join the EU. The rest of the UK would not. If England left the Union, it would need to apply to join again.
This would be a pretty tough negotiation and fisheries might be a key issue.
Well, as Sean dived completely off-topic at the very first post, and as he his plunge was straight into Scottish politics, I feel not the slightest hesitation in bringing your attention to this article today (I await the usual cries of “parochialism” and “Zzzzz”):
“How the SNP decision to limit number of candidates could have cost 15 council seats”
It is amazing to think that the Labour disaster last May could quite easily have been even worse.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/02/27/will-the-cleveland-showdown-change-anything/#comments
Labour’s Prospective Parliamentary Candidate selection process in Edinburgh East is in the news. This could be one of the most fascinating contests come the UK GE 2010, as the (largely) corresponding Scottish Parliament seat was a Scottish National Party gain from Labour last year.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Frontrunner-for-Strang-seat-is.3814718.jp
14. Whoops, wrong link there!! Here it is:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2075368.0.How_the_SNP_decision_to_limit_number_of_candidates_could_have_cost_15_council_seats.php
As a true Brit, I’ve often felt that the Union would be an awful lot stronger without: Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the poorer parts of England.
Perhaps it could be the United Kingdom of Greater London (excluding Tower Hamlets) and the Home Counties (excluding West Sussex)?
Just think of the tax benefits if we didn’t have to all subsidise the Scots, the Welsh, the Liverpudlians, etc.
8,9. Again you miss the point.
It’s not a question of whether England, Wales, the Scilly Isles or my uncle Ken would oppose Scottish independence - it’s that Scottish independence is now predicated on independence-within-the-EU, and there are 27 EU countries that have to agree to that. Unanimously.
As the Kosovo reaction shows, a lot of EU countries are deeply unhappy about the partitionist example set by Kosovo; these countries would be even more unhappy about it happening to an EU member.
These countries can therefore be confidently expected to threaten a veto on Scotland’s joining the EU, to stop independence before it even happened.
They wouldn’t even have to wield the veto, just threaten it during any Scottish referendum run-up. I can just see it: Romania’s prime minister saying “we are not happy about the precedent this sets and we may have to veto changes to the Treaty of Rome”. Result: a landslide against the SNP.
There won’t be a damn thing Alex Salmond could do about this - the most he could do, is promise his voters to fight the veto in the courts or something. But business would be up in arms at the looming instability. Hideously messy.
It’s deeply ironic. The EU is a solvent of nation states, yet it will also, paradoxically, preserve nation states as any region wishing to secede could face trouble from other countries in the EU.
The only alternative is an independent Scotland outwith the EU altogether.
I am sure Alex Salmond, being a very bright chap, has worked this out already. He’s probably hoping his less bright voters don’t twig the same thing.
6. I agree that the Kosovo decision was stupid and hasty. It has further alienated Serbia at a time when they were aiming for more democracy. We now have a barely functioning Islamic statelet on the borders of crime-ridden Albania that is gonna need nursing for decades to come, with a possible Ulster type insurgency in the north of Kosovo.
Result. Not.
Quickest hijack of a thread ever.
14. Stuart - how are you going to get Spain, Cyprus, Romania, Greece, and Hungary to agree to Scottish membership of the EU, when these countries won’t even recognise Kosova, which isn’t even in the EU, because of the unfortunate secessionist precedent it sets?
I am waiting for the brilliant Salmond answer. Perhaps you are going to export haggis to Nicosia. Maybe Edinburgh has a secret deal with Bucharest, involving shortcake.
Do tell.
17 - Well post 8 might have missed the point, but my post at 9 certainly didn’t, seeing as it was made directly in reponse to post 8!
17 - BTW i’m not sure that Scottish Independence is “predicated on a Scotland within the EU” case these days is it? The SNP have been playing that down for a long time (see the reference to fisheries above), and these days are relying on the “Scottish Oil” argument.
War, pestilence, floods and now earthquake. What next ?
Surprised GBs not called a COBRA meeting.
Is that advert at the top going on the telly? Is it even legal to put it on the telly?; British political advertising law seems to be tailor made to prevent any successful independent campaign.
17 - France would need a referendum approving Scotland’s membership of the EU, a by-product of the change in its constitution that was aimed at excluding Turkey from EU membership.
18. Well no - I didn’t hijack the thread with complete gratuitousness.
Mike Smithson did mention Kosovo in his post. And my original comment was referencing Kosovo. I just shoe-horned the Scottish independence debate in, as well, because the FT article compared the two.
So I was still very very very tenuously on topic.
22 jack w raising up from the dead. The day of judgment looms.
1.
“Clinton needed to flatten Obama”
Who wants to be flattened by Hilary? Not Bill, for sure!
Now let’s get round to debating whether we should allow an independent Sean T in the EU.
1: “A bizarre outcome. The EU saves Britain. I’ve always liked Brussels.”
sean
Scotland will be allowed its independence by Westminster only when the remaining value of the oil in the North Sea is £1 less than the umpteen billions in costs of abandoning all those production platforms and sub-sea pipleines in accordance the EU/Greenpeace “best practice” standards. After that, Scotland has nothing that the rest of Britain needs - in fact, it is an economic drain - so it can happily go its own way. In fact, we will insist.
However, with the rise in oil prices from $20 to $100, this has effectivly delayed the independence timetable by several years. Now it is maybe 2015-2018?
(wishing there was an emoticon for “ever so slightly tongue in cheek…”)
Very tenuously.
William Hague in the commons yesterday was brilliant.
“I have never seen so many Liberal Democrat MPs in one place at one time. I thought there must be a bye election going on. I started to worry that one of the honourable members was very ill.”
10 year drug strategy unveiled. Gimmicky, unimplementable, headline grabbing, populist, palpable nonsense. I despair.
I wonder if we will see Gordon presenting it later as we do with every other gimmicky, populist headline grabbing rubbish.
19. Montenegro’s independence was recognised all round. And most of the former Yugoslav nations are in the pipeline to join the EU.
Hillary’s attacks may slow Obama down, but the damage she is doing to her own credibility will ensure that he still wins the Democrat nomination.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
The Obama campaign is likely to announce later today that he has recieved a donation from his millionth individual donor. And that is before the GE campaign even kicks in… Massively effective fund-raising. All Hillary can do is watch and weep.
Did anyone hear the schools minister on radio last night? Apparently the rise in truancy is not really a rise at all. It was very laughable. Until you realise that these people are running the country.
They had the head of a drug rehabilitation group on BBC breakfast this morning, he basically laid into the governments drug strategy, calling it a disaster. He also pointed out that the goverment have cherry picked the figures, with overall drug use down (yeah right, I can get any type you like in five minutes) but heroin and cocaine use doubling, which are the worst types. The entire plan to confiscate drug dealers assets before conviction is just a headline grabber, never be enforced. Lawyers would tie the government in knots over the legality of it.
I’m surprised you didn’t lead on the Libdem demo Mike
How Hoggart sees it
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/feb/27/liberaldemocrats.houseofcommons
I think its a good idea myself, shake things up a bit!
Saw Lord Hector Mcalpine on C4 news, justifying claiming his overnight expenses, (he lives in Italy) poor ‘ol thing must be running short of a few bob!!
[28] Let’s get round to debating whether we should allow an independent Sean T in the EU. ROFLMAO
[32] Please do you have a link, Tyson?
39 - This is the Beeb’s article around the drugs stuff.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7266109.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7266109.stm
I have said it before, but for government full of lawyers it comes up with very badly thought out law and proposals.
[40] Thanks, James. I like the comment about “completely innocent” - presumably the intention is to enforce confiscation against those convicted of possession merely, but acquitted of possession with intent to supply. In effect, an admission that rehab doesn’t work and can’t be made to work.
A more fruitful approach might be to identify industries (the City and the media spring to mind) where drug use is rife, and require employers to undertake mandatory testing (using tax sticks and carrots). At the very least, all TV companies and their contractors should be required to operate zero tolerance policies as a condition of their broadcasting licence.
41 - Indeed the idea that if you are arrested for drug dealing your assets are all seized is spectacularly bad. Then there is that poisonous phrase that this will be returned if a person is ‘completely innocent’, are the government planning to introduce new verdicts? Do you find the defendent, guilty, not guilty, really not guilty, completely innocent, whiter than white or none of the above?
32.”10 year drug strategy unveiled. Gimmicky, unimplementable, headline grabbing, populist, palpable nonsense. I despair.”
Agree with you on that Tyson. Did I miss something or have the government laid out a corresponding plan to increase funding and places for drug rehabilitation? I just saw the headline about drug addicts getting their benefits withdrawn, while drug dealers would have their assets confiscated in an attempt to generate the worst kind of gimmicky dog whistle headline.
That does not address the issue of drug use in the sink estates of London, Leeds, Manchester etc does it?
Get methadone on a government program.Then go and claim their benefits. Then go and see the local dealer. Sell the methadone to them and buy some proper class A. Thats the cycle that needs to be broken.
AN APOLOGY FROM MR & MRS JACK W.
My wife and I would like to extend our apologies to PBers who were awaken in the early hours. The earth really did move caused by our very occassional erotic geriatric nocturnal copulatory movements.
Jack W is 105
Mrs Jack W refuses to confirm her age.
That sounds dangerously like guilty until proven innocent.
Some one will be on here soon to say thats a good idea.
The Today prog “debate” highlighted the point that we treat recreational drug taking as OK whether as alcohol or illegal drugs by IA’s city friends and others (no names, Mike) even the blessed Sherlock Holmes.
It is only once someone is wrecked by them that we see a problem.
Thanks Jack - will we have to wait another 25 years until the next one?
49 Icarus. Almost certainly on that scale!! …… I blame Mrs Jack reading Sting’s latest book - “Tantric Sex For Scottish Centenarians” …. sales are slow though!!
Not now there is the little blue…
God only knows what comes next ….. she’s only read the fly-leaf !!
48: society seems fairly relaxed about the enormous number of lives and families ruined by alcohol addiction.
The question that needs to be asked is simple: do the costs to society of the ‘war on drugs’ exceed the costs of a more liberalised environment?
53 - I think the problem is that you can’t win a war when you are effectively arming both sides in the fight!
Meanwhile ….. what’s the PB consensus on the Clinton/Obama debate ?
I note most external reports seem to score it a draw, that’s really not good enough for Hillary.
Important news, Boris Johnson confirmed as criminal genius - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/02/27/dl2703.xml
Can he recover from this shocking and deadly serious allegation?!
As a simple rule of thumb:
Alcohol fuels street fights(including pubs in that) and general yobbish behaviour.
Drugs fuel low level crime such as muggings/burgalaries etc. They also fuel gun crime as drug pushes etc fight over the trade.
56. Good grief Ken’s mob really are desperate aren’t they?
But don’t the police also look incredibly stupid following this up? Could this possibly be connected with appearence of ‘vote Labour’ stickers in one of their cars not so long ago…?
[43] - Perhaps we’ll get to choose the judge who will pass this judgement too? We’ll get to be Tony Blair for one day…
58, quite. There’s plenty of real work for them to be doing.
Perhaps making Boris Conservative candidate was a stroke of genius. He’s like a Trojan horse made of ice-cream and candy floss. You just can’t take him seriously, but that won’t stop him conquering Troy:p
I would have thought that if an independent Scotland were rejected by the EU, then it would make the position of England within the EU unsustainable - some say that it already is.
New thread - Did Ken hold back MORI to trump YouGo v?
Yes, it’s about breaking the cycle.
Taking a TV station off the air for 24 hours - or suspending a stockbroking firm for a month - might seem harsh, but it would show intent, and it wouldn’t need to happen twice. To be fair to the City, they know that they encourage people to live absurd lifestyles which lead to addiction and they are generous in supporting rehab programmes.
But we need to understand the limits of rehab. It has a low success rate because it only works if the person concerned has reached “rock bottom” in their own opinion, not anyone else’s. And if the only social networks they have are made up of other drug abusers, their chances are slim indeed.
But if we are serious about reducing crime, we have to tackle this: as much as 90% of crime is committed by people with a drug and/or alcohol abuse problem. Deal with abuse, and the crime problem will solve itself.
Morning Mike.
Didn’t see the debate last nite. Out dancing. (The real cause of the earthquake; ignore Jack’s conceited boasting.)
The report in RCP seems to give her a draw at best.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/27/us/politics/27assess.html?hp
Not really good for HRC, is it?
Not really good enough….
You’ve done it again!
No suprises in a new Research 2000 poll for Vermont :
Obama 53% .. Clinton 39%
McCain 52% .. Huckabee 32%
Former Democratic contender, the well regarded Govenor Bill Richardson of NM has indicated that he will endorse a candidate later this week. He’s considered to have a lot of pull on Hispanic voters.
14: Zzzzzzzzz.
Why dont you answer seanT’s question on secession?
Re: Drugs strategy, yes desperate and dire. Nothing new. Asset forfeiture of property from people who have not been convicted - obviously illegal under Human Rights law. Same old crap.
At some point people need to ask about the drug problem whether the medicine is worse than the disease. What has 70 years of the “War on Drugs” ™ achieved?
67 - Richardson will almost certainly endorse Obama. You don’t wait this long to endorse a candidate only to back somebody who now looks like a loser. Should do Obama some favours although not massive.
If there are ten comments on the original thread I would be surprised. I’m not against divergent thinkers, but it would be appreciated for those of us who tend to be interested observers rather than contributers to read developing arguments flowing from an original theme. Should one wish to introduce a new thread, fine, but do it elsewhere.
32: “Gimmicky, unimplementable, headline grabbing, populist, palpable nonsense.”
Not that I hold any brief for this (useless) government, but the above sounds pretty much like business as usual in the la-la land of drugs policy. We’ve had a drugs catastrophe for 25 years now, and the response has been nothing but gimmickry the whole time.
[46] Did the earth move for you? Er…Yes actually.
[7] Tapestry: “Albania is a hotbed of Islamic extremism, and is a threat to our stability and safety.”. You have -very obviously- not been to Albania.
38.
Was Blunkett pathfinder Hoggart taking the **** out of himself when he wrote:
“It is a rather silly idea, designed to [b]get them out of a hole where everyone else would quite happily leave them[/b]…..,
“…. and almost nobody will take it up.”
…also seems to have resonance with his Kimberly moments.