Peter Smith on an experiment for next Tuesday night
February 28th, 2008
Elite Betting and the March 4th Primaries
In an earlier thread I mentioned at Mike’s request some possible future PB activities but there was one fairly ambitious idea for which I did not have space.
There is no doubt that this site has been a colossal success since it started in March 2004. There are many reasons and we could all list a number of ingredients – Mike, his open approach, the free and willing contributions by many talented and varied posters. It has become required reading for anybody interested in politics, not just political betting. What makes it so special though?
At a rough guess, I should say that fewer than 10% of posts are from those who bet to any significant extent. So why do the other 90% or so drop in? One prominent PBer put it succinctly. “They know that money is not partisan.” In other words, they appreciate that if serious punters are putting their money down, there must be some good reason for it. It is the betting element that gives the site its edge. I do not wish to demean all the other valuable and interesting contributors, but it is the punters who, though numerically small, lie at the heart of the site.
Despite its success, it has however a major problem. It does not make Mike much money, and certainly not as much as it deserves. Poiliticalbetting.com is a hugely successful brand but so far it has been extremely difficult to exploit it financially.
One idea for remedying this lies in trying to bridge the gap between the site, as part of the blogosphere, and the mainstream media. My apologies to all you media types out there but frankly I think the coverage of politics in the conventional UK media is pretty poor, especially once one moves outside mainstream UK politics. To find out what’s going on, I generally start at PB and work out from there. Mike’s site provides a fine service for me, but what does he get out of it apart from a little advertising money?
Some time ago he was contacted by a TV production crew who wanted to do a piece on PB. Fine, but what was there to film? Pictures of people sitting at home before their PCs do not make for riveting TV. What however if the cameras could report the activities of political gamblers operating from the equivalent of a Trading Room?
Elitebet Ltd has offered Politicalbetting.com, free of charge, the use of one of its rooms for an all night political betting session on Tuesday March 4th when the next round of key US Primaries are being held. Mike and I will be there, along with Double Carpet, Morus and anybody else from PB who wishes to attend what we hope could be a groundbreaking session. If all goes well, we will repeat the exercise for the Mayoral Election, but our eyes are firmly fixed on the next really big political betting event, the US Presidentials in November. By that time, we would hope to know whether Elite’s Trading Room gives us a focal point which will attract national mainstream media coverage.
There are 22 trading seats available at the Highgate location. Since we considered it unlikely we could provide that many PBers for the inaugural event, Elite will be inviting some of its regular punters along, so please don’t assume you can just turn up and take a vacant place. You must contact me first if you plan to be there, not least because details are still being worked out with the company, which will no doubt need all our bona fides before granting access.
Meanwhile, if anybody has any thoughts about this little venture, or indeed any suggestions at all to help PB fly a little higher, please put them forward. These are exciting times for the site. Mike, I and all its well-wishers will be pleased to hear from you.
arklebar@talktalk.net or ring me on 07880 553351a Elite’s premises are located near Highgate Tube at: 381 Archway Road, London N6 4ER. More information about Elite can be found at: http://www.elitebet.com/index.htm
Peter the Punter (Peter Smith)
MessageSpace Advertising
Well done to all concerned - as one of the 90% I won’t be taking up a seat, is there going to be a live feed?
1 Not for the first one, IA, but it’s a good idea.
1 - A fascinating idea - I hope that you’ll all remember to comment on here occassionaly as well as just to each other for the benefit of those of us not there!
Now, here’s a thought, and perhaps a discussion topic. Why do we need to pay MPs at all? Look through the latest (or indeed any) Register of Members Interests and you will see just how well MPs can dofrom writing, speaking or consulting activities whilst still having the time to perform their constituency duties.
Boris Johnson listed external earnings in the range £390-465K in the last year: William Hague, Charles Kennedy, Charles Clarke, Ken Clarke, Hewitt, Milburn, Blunkett, Ming Campbell and many others seemed to be doing more than adequately without in any way neglecting their day job.
For the average backbencher there is little enough to do, and, as they are keen to tell the unemployed, doing a proper job makes you feel part of society; if they all had to sustain themselves rather than sponge off the taxpayer it might be better all round.
Incidentally one of those with the smallest claim for expenses, and yet one of the most assiduous members is Dennis Skinner. There’s a message there.
Mike Smithson, from the previous thread - I just want to apologise. Sincerely.
I am a little bit squiffy after a night in Soi Cowboy, and I think I unfairly insinuated that you were about to make, for the hundredth time, the same dreary, repetitive, laughably monotonous argument about Europe being a non-issue according to pollsters.
The thrust of my satirical barb was that, if you made this point again, you could actually break a pb record, in terms of repeating yourself like a palsied Somme veteran.
I’m sorry I said this. It was stupid and crass and downright wrong. Because I just checked the previous thread and found this:
“..and on the EU the February Mori monitor is due out this weekend.
Anybody want to bet on the ranking of the EU in the pollster’s unprompted “most important issues facing the country” list?
Come on - it’s been in the news throughout the fieldwork period - how much of it has registered with the public?
by Mike Smithson February 28th, 2008 at 1:18 pm”
So you have in fact already broken the record for reiterating the same traumatisingly dull talking point for the zillionth time!!! Indeed I think you have smashed another record, inasmuch as you made this exact same risible argument sixteen times in one single thread.
Norris McWhirter has been informed.
PtP, I wish you well with all you do. However, as one of the 90% let me assure you that the reason I (and I suspect, many others) come here has absolutely nothing to do with betting.
Rather, it is because PB.com has the USP of comment from across the political spectrum. As a lurker, I can enjoy Sean Fear, Gabble, and Mark Senior all on one site. That is something LibDem Voice, ConHome and Guido do not offer.
If you want the opinions of all shades of political thought, PB.com is the place to come. And IMO, very few of us (lurkers and posters) care about betting. I hope this doesn’t annoy PtP or our gracious host but that’s my read of the site’s strength.
o/t
a poll in Texas
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/28/pcp_poll_obama_opens_up_lead_in_texas.html
OK, I’m off to bed. May I just say, through my haze of Bombay sapphire and Tiger beer, hats off to Prince Harry.
Fightin’ for his country. It’s easy to laugh and sneer, especially if you are a “p1ssed up philandering libertine” like me (thankyou Cicero), but the fact is he is out there in some godforsaken toilet of a warzone, and he now has a big royal bullseye on his back. But he’s doing it.
Kudos to the kid.
And g’nite all.
6 Hi Test! Lovely to see you back again.
No, it certainly doesn’t annoy. In fact, I agree wholeheartedly with you. The point I was trying to make though is that it is the betting element that helps to bring all those disparate voices together in one spot.
If that were not the case, why has no other site achieved the popularity and authority that PB has?
Do post again. Miss you.
Great post and even greater idea.
As one of the 90% of non-punters, think that the raison d’etre of the site are the 10% who do bet.
Why? Because they are the objective foundation. They keep the place from being just another blogophone for preaching to the converted or screaming at the heathens.
Wonderful idea, Peter. I’m not much of a betting man but do have the odd flutter now and again. As I spend more time in the US each year than in the UK, I do my best to pass on any snippets or feelings that might help those of you who are really serious about punting. Will work at not sending you any duff information; I’ll try to be posting on March 4th and will let you have the latest from this side of the pond.
Malcolm
On thread ….. Mmmmhhhhhh
…………..
7 Marcia. Thanks. pdf link :
http://texaspolls.callvoyager.com/TexasPollResults.pdf
…………..
Latest Gallup National tracker poll :
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104653/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
Obama 48% .. Clinton 43%
McCain 61% .. 24%
Peter, was it you who offered me a bet when I suggested about 6 months ago that Americans would never vote for Hillary Clinton? (Which I turned it down of course). I’ve been trying to find the thread, but to no avail so far.
11 Thanks Malc (and all the others) for your kind comments.
Yes, please assist by posting your comments. We will be logged into PB of course on the nite and any useful snippets you can pass on will be very helpful.
Cheers
1, 2 As an interim measure, am guessing you’ll have one or more posting from inside the sealed chamber. Giving the rest of us crucicial updates.
Such as:
–”SeanT is chewing the carpet, and we just had it hoovered!”
–”The Old Jacobin has hurled his dram into the fireplace and is cursing the Hanoverians for alleged vote rigging in the lower Rio Grande valley.”
–”PtP and StJohn are debating who first discovered Ohio: Columbus or Cincinnati? And is Akron truly the ‘Rubber Capital of America’?”
13 Sorry Frank but I don’t remember it. Sounds like the sort of cocky thing I would say though.
If a bet was struck, I’ll be happy to pay you but I suspect it never got past chest beating.
Latest Belo Texas Tracking Poll
Obama 45% Clinton 46%.
Hillary lead down from 3% yesterday.
http://www.khou.com/elections/poll/belopoll.pdf
……………
A new Mason-Dixon poll for Florida shows McCain in a strong position over both Obama and Clinton :
McCain 49% .. Clinton 40%
McCain 47% .. Obama 37%
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/28/713124.aspx
15 Not sure about Akron, SSI, but I know Condom is the rubber capital of France.
13. It may well have been someone else. Still, I never took them up on it, anyway! I might have made a bit of cash had I done so.
18 Touché! Akron = home of the Goodyear Blimp
O/T but you can dance to it if you want.
Tejano Obama.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/02/viva-obama.html
From the Toronto Star Online:
WASHINGTON – A campaign official says Hillary Rodham Clinton raised $35 million in February.
The Democratic presidential candidate has been struggling to recover from weak fundraising in January. Clinton raised nearly $14 million in January to Barack Obama’s $36 million.
Obama spokesman Bill Burton would not disclose his campaign’s fundraising total. He said, “We’ve raised considerably more than that.”
The Clinton aide spoke on condition of anonymity because the figure was to be formally announced later in the day. The official said most of the money raised in February was for the primary election. The campaign averaged about a $1 million a day online alone.
Vice-Presidential candidate announced:
http://www.mercurynews.com/politics/ci_8394349?nclick_check=1
20 Oh, thank you, SSI, that’s very helpful. Next time in the vicinity, I’ll pop in.
It’s about the size I generally use and it’s hard to get them in this country. Everything is so much bigger in the States.
19 Sorry, Frank, the last thing I would do is walk away from a bet but I honestly don’t remember it.
6. From one lurker to another, I suspect that the ratio of hacks to punters may be higher amongst posters than it is amongst site users as a whole. Those with a party line to spout are much more likely to be caught spouting. And those whose primary interest is the betting will be less partial and less likely to be vocal.
25. I think you may be misunderstanding me. I haven’t arranged a bet with anyone.
However I was offered a bet (one that could have netted me a good cheque), but I turned it down - not really being a betting man myself.
It looks like an inside job:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7270042.stm
Good idea Peter. Wish I could attend but the management would kill me.
The regular posters on Pb are an ecletic bunch and thats what makes it stand out from any of the ~~~home sites, as they can be very navel gazing. There is often a better level of analysis than what goes in the national media. Often it is said with more verve.
The site for me embodies the wisdom of crowds theory.
24 - Remember the Hindenburg - oh, the humanity!
27 It’s OK Frank, I understand. It’s just I’m a little sensitive about people who don’t pay up on bets. Doesn’t win a lot of friends in my milieu, so if there was any suggestion I’d done that, I would have to clear it up pronto.
No probs. We’re all cool.
26 Neat point, James F. Never thought of that.
23 Marcia, don’t do that!!! I have money on the VP markets.
30 Yes, that would be about the size of it, SSI.
According to various sources Hillary has raised over $35M in February. By most standards it’s a great fundraining effort ….. except the political tea leaves are indicating that Obama has squirreled away a nut crunching $60M !!!!!!!!!!!
Jacobite Party fundraising for February amassed the vast total of £4 10/- 3d. Thanks also to Hamish MacGrockle of Invergluchy for the donation of his glass eye and his wife’s recently used antique bourdaloue. Mrs Jack W has been on the look out for a decent sauce boat for some time !!
29 Thanks London for your warm wishes.
I understand. It was precisely to avoid such problems that I organised a management buy-out some years back, but it’s an expensive and time-consuming process which is not to be undertaken lightly.
35 Talk about saluting the King “over the water”
Peter. Great idea and best of luck on Tuesday night. I would love to attend but I am a doubtful runner. Will be with you on the blog.
37 SSI.
A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Texas has some better news for Hillary :
Clinton 47% .. Obama 43%
http://southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_228_247.aspx
15 - Apology, reference should be to “Old Jacobean” which is a lot different from an “Old Jacobin”!
33 - Peter, I could not resist that one
40 SSI. Actually it’s ‘Old Jacobite’. ….. Mmmmhhh ‘Jacobean’ … well I’ve been called a bit wooden and wormy, fair enough !!
36,
Your welcome. I would be interested in joining the Pb syndicate (having missed the 10 to follow) as I do have funds that the management allows me to spend on betting (Mr Cameron’s win got the management a new dress and I have not let her forget that yet!)
41 Grrrr!!!!
Had me going. Link didn’t work so i was scurrying round the sites to track it down.
And I thought this Running Mate was supposed to be well-known. Yeah, in San Jose maybe.
42 - Thought “Jacobite” and “Jacobean” were/are interchangeable, but could be in error (first time for everything!) and anyway will defer to your preference, if not your politics.
35 judging by your report of the Earthquake the other day I thought YOU were Mrs JackW’s sauce boat.
I don’t think the current Jack W and the former Jack W are one and the same.
45 kingbongo. And dream boat !!
46 alex. Sadly, it’s the same tired, warmed up offerings !!
I’ve just laid that large lump backing Clinton for Ohio on Betfair @ 1.8 - seemed like the right thing to do right now. Does anyone know why her prospects ticked up a little on intrade today?
43 - here is the link - this should work this time
http://www.mercurynews.com/politics/ci_8394349
Joe Conason on McCain’s political difficulties on Iraq :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/mccains_political_quagmire.html
49 PC. Not sure. The Iowa exchanges showed a small recovery yesterday from around 13.5 to 17.5. But Hillary has drifted all the way back again.
I’m awaiting some post debate pollings from Ohio. Pre debate the state was trending steadily Obama but with Hillary still around 6%ahead.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
Britain is experiencing the worst “brain drain” of any country.
No other nation is losing so many qualified people. Britain has now lost more than one in 10 of its most skilled citizens, while overall only Mexico has had more people emigrate.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/21/nexodus121.xml
Good news for Labour. All those Conservative voters leaving.
Of course, like Mugabe’s persecution of the wealth generators, the economy will suffer. Probably best to put money into gold & foreign currency….
47. What are your thoughts?
53) Jack W
I figure momentum is his and that the debates have been slightly better for him than her. I think the next Ohio polls we’ll see will be incrementally better for Obama (as we’ve seen with Texas polls in the last 2 days) and her price will drift out above evens.
OT: BBC News 24 reporting that William reckons Harry’s mother would be so proud of him.
Capt James Hewitt has confirmed that his father is too…
47. Several people have posted under the Jack W name in the past.
As Mike has made money from political betting,he should be selling the seats at Elitebet Ltd in exchange for sharing his tips or alternatively agreeing a commission.
My Nomination for the Best Election Slogan in History:
Lyndon LaRouche 1996, 2000
“The Only Opponent Bush Feared Enough to Put in Prison”
58 harry. I certainly have.
56 PC. Agreed …. but then again …
61 Jack W. You have, have you ?
59 John F
Elitebet normally let out these seats at £40 per session. They’re letting us have them for free.
58 I imagine that Mike can confirm the IP and email address.
It is interesting though. Jack W’s postings are generally puerile. If at some point he had been a brilliant poster, say on par with SeanT, advantage could be gained. Although, as long as I can remember, the posts have been dire.
SSI. Do you know the times of the close of polls for the four contests next week ?
65. Agreed.
65 Horse. Oooopps … I see you’re foaming at the mouth again.
Sorry, PtP, on topic - this is a great project!!
Good luck!!!
Wish I could call myself a proper punter and be there
Maybe one day..
53/56
Some states, for whatever reason, have a reputation for being against the trend. Whilst Ohio has been a necessary pick-up for Presidential elections it doesn’t always act as expected. The US has plenty of old stubborns, and my guess is that they are over-represented in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Missouri. And also over-represented in HR Clinton’s target groups.
Malcolm
Obama moves into a nine point lead in the Rasmussen National tracker :
Obama 49% .. Clinton 40%
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history
69 Casino. I’d certainly call you a ‘proper punter’ …. but then again I do mix up my consonants from time to time.
OT Washington State Governor’s Race 2008
New SurveyUSA poll (600 sample) is good news for Governor Gregoire.
Approve or Disapprove of job performance?
Approve = 51%
Disapprove = 44%
This represents significant improvement for the Gov, who has suffered with the public because of the contentious nature of her razor thin victory margin.
Even better news for her is the fact that more voters approve than disapprove of her job performance in all regions of the state, even eastern WA which is NOT friendly turf for Democrats.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=dff7bed7-a0cc-4dc4-a426-285aad60f3e8
re 65 I can confirm that there is only one JackW and that it is he who is amongst us tonight.
We did have an impersonator once but that did not last long. Gordon Brown went back to posting under his other assumed name..
64
How much is a TV going to pay for a few shots of people sitting at desks that are identical to almost any other office?
Surely the value and potential money maker is buying into Mike’s gambling expertise / success and the 10% of gamblers on the site becomes 50% and then the site is able to attract quality advertising from the various bookies.
Good luck on the new venture. As someone with a rather compulsive personality, I have to restrict my betting to offering the odd dogs v cats tenner. However, the political insight on here is second to none; and I can rely on someone here reporting any events of note, worldwide, as soon as it hits the wires.
Like many of the non-betters on here, I hope that the contributions we offer may be of some benefit to - how shall I put this - our Betters?
POLL CLOSING TIMES
Vermont = 7pm EST (12 midnight GMT)
Ohio = 7:30pm EST (12:30am GMT)
Rhode Island = 9pm EST (2am GMT)
Texas = 8pm CST (2am GMT)
note: El Paso is in Mountain time zone so polls there open to 8pm MST (3am GMT)
Source:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/misc/poll.close.html
A good idea. I’m not one of the 10% as I find it hard to understand betting really well.
74. yes yes, let’s all keep the fiction going shall we?
77 SSI. Thank for that and the useful link.
75 Mike S.
… All sing “There’s only Jack W .. one Jack W …”
Sing up at the back Horse, I want to hear you braying !!
69 Thanks for your good wishes anyway, Casino.
79 harry. Tut tut harry.
Not suggesting our esteemed host is telling porkie pies are you ??
71 O do not ask for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for Hillary.
Post: “Pictures of people sitting at home before their PCs do not make for riveting TV.”
75: “How much is a TV going to pay for a few shots of people sitting at desks that are identical to almost any other office?”
Both good points.
Perhaps one possible answer, is to have people around the world talking INTO their computers in their offices, rumpas rooms, saunas and god-knows-what-else you people get up to.
That is, at least one PB correspondent in all the primary states, and others around the US & the globe. With Mike and/or Peter as master(s) of cerimony, and other PBers at the computers and/or the bar offering comments, factoids, bulletins, bullshyte, low humor & high drama.
A new Pew Research National poll :
Obama 49% .. Clinton 40%
McCain 61% .. Huckabee 23%
McCain 43% .. Obama 50%
McCain 45% .. Clinton 50%
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=398
75 Thanks for the comment, John F, but no that’s not quite what we had in mind. Anyway, before we start thinking up grandiose plans we have to see if this little experiment works. We’re mighty grateful to Elite for givng us the opportunity and if it’s a success, we think about the next move.
Your idea of 50% punters is a bit hopeful though. The number of people who bet seriously on Politics is mighty small, which is why regular bookies are disdainful of it as a Novelty Market.
We’d like to try and break that vicious circle. The experiment is a small, tentative step.
Maps & PB
Another suggestion for next Tuesday: try to rig up computer-generated maps of each primary state showing the returns by county as they are reported.
Thing about maps is they are visually very interesting. Which would be a big plus for 1st & subsequent webcasts. Even if you are already inviting especially attractive PBers to liven up the visuals!
And maps are good at conveying information, though you do have to be sure that folks understand the difference between real estate and votes (cattle versus hats).
Technically not difficult if you’ve got the proper software. The numbers you can get via state election officials (gen. secretary of state) and local media. Just need people who can download the numbers, plug them into the program, and generate the maps.
Things that can be mapped:
1. Which candidate is winning each county
2. Percentage by which specific candidate is carrying each county
3. Hybrid of 1 & 2, which is interesting but can be confusing.
4. Projections of how many votes remain to be counted in each county; this is especially helpful if the statewide result is close.
Delegate projections can also be maped but this is tricky unless you know the specific state party delegate rules AND can factor them into the maps.
83 After she loses how long before it’s Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton then Senator Hillary Rodham?
83 - shouldn’t that be “for whom the troll bells”?
82. tut tut ‘Jack’, surely not.
75. But if we become too good, the bookies won’t make any money out of us.
It’s pretty quiet on the betting front for me - my betting limit is tied up in bets on the next general election which should have been 3 months ago. And Mrs. J won’t let me increase my limit.
76 Thanks Marquee Mark but please don’t think I’m dismissive of the non-punting element here. Imagine how boring the site would be if it were all punters. Geesh…nightmarish.
No, it’s the combination of the two elements that makes it, and it really doesn’t need that many punters to make things whizz; it just needs enough to give it a focus, which is what it’s got in spades.
Sorry if I make it sound like the punters are somehow superior. We’re not. But I do think we supply the site with its raison d’etre, and its distinctiveness.
90 Bit of a cheek though Harry, isn’t it? I mean, coming onto a Site to call the Site Manager a Holy Friar! Stroll on, sunshine!!
[92] Yup, just because chicken tastes better the more garlic you stick in it, that doesn’t mean you throw away the fowl and just eat the garlic…
91 Alan J
Perhaps you could bring Mrs J along to the evening at Elite? It would reassure her, and according to Sea Shanty, we need some totty to make it all a bit more televisual.
94 An exquisite and apt culinary metaphor, if I may say so, Innocent.
86
Peter why is it only 10%?
Probably three reasons,people aren’t interested,don’t understand how it works e.g the buying & selling of seats and thirdly have tried but lost.
OK you can’t do much about the lack of interest but Pb can assist with the other two points & earn money via fees,commission etc.
92 Hope you didn’t interpret my comments as being the non-betters somehow felt they were treated as lesser mortals on here. Never felt that at all. If you don’t mind us pressing our noses on the shop window, peering in. There is a vicarious thrill shared if someone - say - should get 50-1 odds on the likely next US President. And we feel your pain when you get rolled on New Hampshire.
RE: Prince Harry in Afghanistan.
My personal thanks and very best wishes to the Prince and his family for his service. And the same to all NATO military and their families.
His great-grandfather served at Jutland, his uncle in the Falklands. Both like Harry were “spares” and both came back to tell the tale. However survival was not and can never be guaranteed to anyone in a war zone, even to a prince of the blood. A fact confirmed by the death of the Prince Imperial of France during the Zulu War.
As for the reporting, think the reality is that whereabouts of any celebrity in any warzone are impossible to keep secret for any length of time. At least that must be the assumption.
Because the President of the United States is our head of state, presidential sons and daughters are “temporary” princess and princesses. And as the career of Alice Longworth Roosevelt shows, not always temporary.
Personally appauld young McCain, his father and his family for his own service in Iraq. Think its a good thing for the elites to be represented in our armed forces along with the streets.
And believe that most Britons want some members of the royal family from every generation to serve in the miltary. Even those who are pro-republican and/or anti-war.
I’m watching BBC News at 10. Now 10.13 pm and this has been the only news item and no sign of any other subject.
I am impressed by Harry but not by the BBC.
97 You are harsh, JohnF!
I think PB does quite a lot to explain the mechanics of political betting. Mike’s written a whole book about it!
As for fees, commission etc, that’s a tricky one. Mike can speak for himself but I guess he’d be concerned about maintaining the nature of the site. It would be easy to close out the non-betting element and that might destroy the balance and appeal of the site.
These are all interesting thoughts and have been regularly discussed at informal gatherings. Where it goes from here, who knows but it’s nice so many people volunteer their suggestions.
CNN reporting very high Democrat early voting turnout in Ohio :
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/28/ohio.turnout/index.html
100) from elsewhere. Show your appreciation if you feel as I do.
The magazine that broke the Prince Harry embargo, New Idea, is edited by Robyn Foyster. Since she doesn’t like secrets, she won’t want us keeping her contact details under wraps: email: robyn.foyster@pacificmags.com.au
tel: +61 2 9464 3300
97 - other reasons why people don’t bet:
1. moral objection; note that many if not most of those who think betting would be wrong for them believe that others can make their own choices.
2. fear; not the fear of losing a single bet, but rather fear that you might get addicted and/or lose the farm; alternatively, fear of making a huge mistake in placing a bet (such as the one the Boss described a few months ago when he pushed the wrong computer button or suchlike).
3. lack of disposable income; so if a generous PBer was prepared to offer a suitable stipend or sinecure . . .
98 There is a vicarious thrill shared if someone - say - should get 50-1 odds on the likely next US President.
Mark - please let’s keep things within the bounds of what’s reasonably credible, shall we.
104) SSI - are you one of those groups?
100 stjohn - You mean like 6,400 known hospital deaths caused by C Difficile during 2006 - an absolute disgrace and after all those ten of millions of billions have been thrown at the Health Service. The elderly must be scared witless of having to be admitted to hospital. Apparently our record in dealing with this is not only the worst in Europe but one of the worst in the World.
95. Thanks but we have a prior engagement, as they say.
Now Jack W is back, perhaps Rik W can be persuaded back?
There’s a by-election for Sutton Borough Council tonight, which made me think of him.
104. Although I have an on-line betting account, I have never put a bet on in a bookmakers, ever. It was pb.c wot led me astray.
102 Does this suggest increased support for Obama? - If he stands a reasonable chance of edging ahead over these last 4 days, then this is surely where the value lies.
103. Bravo.
98 That’s an amazingly generous and warm-hearted response, Mark. Thanks. I worry about these things. I shall worry less now.
105 LOL! I know, never going to happen - or we’d have heard about it by now…
107 2nd line should read “tens of billions”, I got a bit carried away there!
PfP
Can you get there on Tuesday?
99 SSI - Jack McCain, except for a couple of days blogging on his sisters blog and unassuming appearances at some speeches, has been kept out of the limelight but he and his brother plus McCain’s undoubted status as an ex-prisoner are a vital ammunition in the election.
When John McCain talks about Iraq the fact that he has a son serving in the Marines there strengthens his case - he’s not talking of other men’s sons, he’s not making the case secure in fact he isn’t likely to be directly affected. He has skin in the game which neither Hillary or Obama can match.
On Harry must admit I had my suspicions - no Harry falling out of nightclubs drunk pictures for a while plus the Sun and Mail have been having pointed Chelsea stories “lonely without Harry”. Posted a while back about how moved I was reading the troops letters in response to our villages Christmas parcels, how those letters showing the desperate longing for recognition and pleasure that someone back home had bothered really hit home. Afghanistan, where the British forces are in their hardest sustained campaign since probably Korea, is largely forgotten except for the weekly charade at PMQs, perhaps Harry can bring home to more what’s happening and add pressure on the MoD to do more to properly equip and support the men out there and their families back home.
104 SSI - Are you sure you are not Yokel?
I detect the same oblique wit. Perhaps you share a gene or two?
108 Alan J. I have this strange feeling that Rik W’s horse has cantered over the gallops of PB in the not too distant past.
108. I saw Rik a few weeks ago at a Tory award evening. He’s still about, you just have to work out who he is.
Galloway on question time. Might be fun
114 PtP - No sorry, I really do have a prior engagement - dinner in Covent Garden, but very best wishes with this.
119 Shame. Would have been right up your street.
Atb anyway.
SeanT picked a fine time to be away from Cornwall:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/02/28/corwall.cocaine/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
118 woody.
Was Rik pinning rosettes on nags.
Nichol Stephen also on QT …. Time for bed !!
122. No he was there as a fellow contestent. Decent chap, shame he was forced out of here.
Galloway supports Taliban he says.
117. 118. What fun! A detective mystery…
‘Morris dancer’ is the one that immediately springs to mind.
(I am real, by the way .. my chance of the big time was Paisley North 1997)
123. He says they’re “not an enemy to me”. I suppose that means he could be neutral, rather than a supporter.
Nice bit of repartee between him and Annabel.
124. Another one outed!!!
125. He’s always careful about his wording. We know what he thinks though.
123 woody. I think Rik forced himself out … but that’s water under the trough.
But Rik had his own style and no different plaiting of his fine mane can alter his twenty hand variety of posting. Clip clop !!
116 - indeed the Ulster genepoll is remarkably feisty. Quite possible we are 14th cousins 13 times removed, like my old Irish uncle used to say.
Anyway, consider all Irish North & South as blood brothers. Leastways until one of the rogues tries to drop a piano on my head from the 2nd story.
126. Another what?
Of our little community. Not suggesting some sort of Simon Hughes business
128 “……Tries to drop a piano on my head from the 2nd story.”
There are parts of Belfast where that is merely the polite way to say hello.
Trading in Obama has been suspended on the Spreadfair market. Anyone know why?
130 woody. Nearly dropped yourself in the doings there woody.
Good Nite all …. the Nichol Stephen sleeping draft is begi… Zzzzzzzzz
131 - Piano, no. Sewing machine, yes.
130. Mrs J wouldn’t approve of that, either!
In ‘the other place’ I am NoOffenceAlan. Sometimes I think that’s my name. As an Englishman who has lived in Scotland for 20 years now, I am often in company where someone goes off on an anti-English rant and then apologises with …
52.
I read the article and I have to say that it worries me because it would be very easy for McCain to become too defensive about the ‘100 years’ jibe.
My views on Iraq are well known but one thing I will conceed is that polling categorically demonstrates that the median default view before any of the debate are aired against the war. However, when someone is prepared to argue the case for the war convincingly and set out a clear consistent strategy for victory then people will support that candidate over an antiwar candidate. This is why McCain has noticably better ratings on Iraq than either Obama or Clinton even though most people say that they want to withdraw immediately.
It is also why McCain needs to keep fighting and not start to backtrack or finesse his position. The economy and Katrina obviously played a big part in 2006 but George W only made matters worse when he announced in the summer the ISG and hinted that he would begin withdrawing troops if Baker and Hamilton recommended that. It made him seem weak and directionless and a bit like his father, who once suggested that if he was re-elected Baker would head up a comission to look at the economy.
McCain could probably win an election on national security alone against Obama but that sort of strategy would be really risky. Against Clinton he will need to differentiate himself from Clinton on Iraq (and he will probably need to find a few other issues as well). The fact remains that he’s committed himself to supporting the war so he needs to aggresively fight his corner on that issue. Iraq is also the issue that holds the Republican party together.
McCain has shown a lot of courage in defending the surge. However, all that will be wasted unless he can argue both that success is possible but also that the war is worth fighting for. It is also pretty inevitable that either immediately before the election or immediately after the election (or both) Iran, Syria and AQI will launch a ‘Tet Offensive’ to try to affect American opinion. McCain needs to make sure that people know that victory is contingent on keeping troop levels high. It also means that he should not make troop drawdowns or short term American casualties the main metric for success.
As long as Iran reamains democracy it is also inevitable that some American prescence will be required, even if the Iraqi’s are otherwise able to defend themselves.
Thanks to JH on the previous thread for another honest and polite answer to my “what do tories think of their party” question.
Pop Quiz - March 4 Primary States
1. Which notable Vermonter was incarcerated by His Britannic Majesty in a prison hulk?
2. Which state has the legal right to subdivide itself into five states?
3. Which state was founded by a condemned criminal?
4. Which state has the most “out of this world” people?
4.
132 - Yes, I see that, yet the rest of the market remains open - very strange. I can only assume that someone was trying to manipulate Obama’s price in the market to their advantage.
136. If, as you suggest, there is a terrorist offensive around the time of the US election, then I think it is important that, whoever wins that election, whatever their policy is (withdrawal or surge or status quo), they stick to it and not be swayed by the violence.
State Quarters
Since the late 1990s, the US Mint has been making 25¢ coins with special flip sides for each state.
The first were for the orginal 13 states, after that new state quarters have been issued in the order of admission to the union. Series is now up to Utah, next one is Oklahoma (may be out already but haven’t seen it yet).
Rhode Island; sailboat & suspension bridge on Narragansett Bay, with slogan “The Ocean State”
Vermont: maple trees with man with buckets for tapping maple syrup, with state motto “Freedom and Unity”
Ohio - map of state with biplane (for Wright Brothers) and astronaut (for John Glenn & Buzz Aldren), with slogan “Birthplace of Aviation Pioneers”
Texas - map of Texas & the Lone Star, with slogan “The Lone Star State”
Note that this side of all state quarters includes the national motto “E Pluribus Unum” which is quite apt for the 2008 primary season. Because it seems like every state is being heard from, one way or another.
And even though there is a great variety of results from two divergent & highly contested races, the counrty feels a lot more united today than it did a year ago.
141 SSI - “And even though there is a great variety of results from two divergent & highly contested races, the counrty feels a lot more united today than it did a year ago.”
Yes, betting aside, it’s been a pretty impressive and absorbing contest which has reflected well on the state of democracy in the USA and has demonstrated a high level of political involvement from a wide section of the population.
115.”Afghanistan, where the British forces are in their hardest sustained campaign since probably Korea, is largely forgotten except for the weekly charade at PMQs, perhaps Harry can bring home to more what’s happening and add pressure on the MoD to do more to properly equip and support the men out there and their families back home.”
Ted, I had the same thought for exactly the same reasons this evening when I heard the news that Prince Harry was serving their with his comrades.
Well Gorgeous George and Cathy Jamieson sitting side by side on QT prevented me from nodding off when Nicol started speaking.
142: It has been a fascinating contest, totally eclipsing Ken vs Boris. Interesting candidates, a close race, and a real sense that it matters who the victor is, as well as frequent swings between the favourite candidates. Easy to see why turnout is so heavily up. For all the people here trialling new voting methods etc to increase turnout - we can learn something here.
Best wishes for next Tuesday, btw. I will be on a flight back to Blighty that evening, but look forward to hearing about the millions you’ve made…
Songs of the March 4 States
TEXAS
‘Tis only fitting to honor the great Lone Star State with a ballad penned by one of her own native sons, the one-of-a-kind Kinky Friedman.
Famed from Picadilly to the Pecos and beyond for his band, Kinky Friedman and the Texas Jewboys. For his detective novels. And for his campaign for Governor of Texas - hope none of you punters lost your shirts on THAT one!
ASSHOLE FROM EL PASO
Kinky Friedman
We dont have no lovins in el paso
We dont go to porno picture shows
We dont swap our wives with our neighbors
And we keep our kids away from Mexico
And I’m proud to be an asshole from El Paso
A place where sweet young virgins are deflowered
You walk down the street knee-deep in tacos
And the wetbacks still get twenty cents an hour
We dont wipe our asses on old glory
God and Lone Star beer are things we trust
We keep our women virgins till theyre married
So hosin sheep is good enough for us
And Im proud to be an asshole from El Paso . . .
And here is an alternative selection for your jukebox, by Jimmy Webb, who wrote what is possibly the best soldier’s anti-war song of all time.
GALVESTON
Jimmy Webb
Galveston, oh Galveston
I still hear your sea winds blowing
I still see her dark eyes glowing
She was twenty-one
When I left Galveston
Galveston, oh Galveston
I still hear your sea waves crashing
While I watch the cannon flashing
And I clean my gun
And I dream of Galveston
I still see her standing by the water
Standing there, looking out to sea
And is she waiting there for me?
On the beach where we used to run
Galveston, oh Galveston
I am so afraid of dying
Before I dry the tears she’s crying
Before I see your sea birds flying
In the sun, at Galveston
139
I did think that it could be because of the gas explosion in Illinois. But definitely an over reaction if that is the reason.
Oh dear, when Sea Shanty starts singing, I know it’s time to go to bed.
Nite everybody and thanks for your contributions.
Cheam ward by election resullt Cons 1541 LDs 1456 Ukip 260 Lab 103
Swing to Lds of about 19pct
148 - So ditching Charlie wasn’t such a bad idea after all?
Or were other more (or less) mundane factors at play in the mean streets of Cheam?
SSI - is it Texas that can subdivide itself into 5?
That’s extraordinary. There must be at least three reasons why the swing is so great.
Other factors in play.
First time a UKIP candidate had stood Labour vot collapsing. Lower turnout than 2006 elections by 10pct.
Good for sitting MP Paul Burstow.
2006 Cons 2300 LDs 1650
My figures on the swing are incorrect although accurate in total vote terms.
Pct Voting Cons 46 LDs 43 Ukip 7.7 Lab 3.1
Last time Cons 53 Lds 37 swing 6.f pct sorry for confusion
150. Yes that’s right. It was part of their accession into the US but in the end they decided to stay one state.
S’funny. I’d arranged to meet Harry (who owns Elite betting) next Thursday evening, at his offices.
I’ll bring it forward to Tuesday….
150 - Yes, was one of the provisions of the reannexation treaty between the United States and the Republic of Texas (the former country, not the bar on Trafalgar Square). Was styled “reannexation” because the US took the position that Tejas/Texas had been part of the original Louisiana Purchase.
This provision was one reason why many Northerners opposed the admission of Texas into the union as a slave state.
Last time it was seriously (or at least semi-seriously) talked about was in the early 1960s when many segregationists saw it as a way of blocking civil rights legislation in the US Senate, because the “Texas” contingent would go from 2 of 100 to 10 of 108.
152 Labour vote held up well , their top candidate had 107 votes in 2006
I was impressed by the interview on BBC1 10 O’Clock News in which His Royal Hunkiness used the words “shit”, “poo” and “crap”. According to my officially-compiled statistics over the last ten years, Hunky Harry the Cheeky Chappie (Naughty but Nice) is the seventh most gorgeous man in the world.
155, 157 Interesting & ironic in retrospect to note that the aggitation against the admission of Texas into the union in 1845, was one of the major events that led directly to the formation of the Republican Party.
Cheam’s a piss poor result for the Lib Dems.
From what I’d heard this was going to be the ’shock’ gain of the night.
View from the United States of Obamaland
Very clean, very clear, very blue
http://origin.barackobama.com/resultscenter/
160. Of course a very different Republican party to the travesty that exists now.
61 - So they shouldn’t have thrown Charlie into (or rather because of) the drink?