What will the chart look like on Wednesday?
February 28th, 2008
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Is Obama really home and dry?
Just looking at the chart showing the changes in betting prices set out in terms of implied probabilities and you get a sense of this extraordinary race to be the Democratic standard bearer in the Presidential election on November 5th.
But could there still be a sting in the tail? Could the Clintons stage one of their famous come-backs? Could the prospect of the first female president still be on?
In Texas they have advance voting and reports this afternoon suggest that this has reached record levels with more than a third of a million people having cast their votes in fifteen counties alone. Unlike some of the other contests in the past month the Clinton campaign has a good organisation in both Texas and Ohio and all the focus has been on this aspect of the process.
The Texas primary day itself will see caucuses in the evening when a third of the state’s delegates will be at stake and the betting has Obama as a clear winner. Hillary Clinton is still the odds-on favourite in Ohio.
My only observation is that older women in both states might be prompted to make the effort to vote for Hillary in the same way that things worked in New Hampshire. Still it’s going to be very hard to compete with the Obama ground organisation.
Texas - Democratic primary - March 4th
Hillary Clinton 2.45/1: Barack Obama 0.37/1
Ohio - Democratic primary - March 4th
Hillary Clinton 0.76/1: Barack Obama 1.2/1
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Can’t see any way back for Hilary now. The media have turned on them, and misogyny may well be a part of this. Sure, the media will turn on Obama, but too late to save the Clintons.
I also predict his wife Michelle is going to experience dreadful attacks, and that all the disowned doubts about Obama will express themselves in hatred towards her, just as buried dislike of Bill had earlier been projected onto Hilary.
Mike
The New Hampshire result seems to have puzzled everybody but I had dinner recently with a native from that area and she said she wasn’t surprised. She’s an Obama supporter and thought it was a mixture of mild racism and natural conservatism of voters in a conservative State. Ok, this is another of those ‘mate down the pub’ anecdotes but she’s an astute observer and when you are trying to comprehend the incomprehensible, you’ll consider anything.
She thought nevertheless that these factors were unlikely to stop Obama’s progress now and that of course only reaffirms what I think is a strong PB consensus. He’s 1/7 for the Nomination now on Intrade, and 1/5 on Betfair.
I think those odds say it all.
1. AiH - I concur with your sentiments on Michelle Obama, indeed I think the McCain machine has already been testing out that approach with its criticism of her “proud to be an American” comment. However, she looks like a strong woman who will nonetheless command greater sympathy from voters than Hillary ever could. And Barack can justifiably try to shield his wife, because - unlike Bill Clinton - he hasn’t tried to play the “two for the price of one” card.
PtP @ 2 — mild racism and conservatism? I don’t like that explanation. It is easy to think that way when our favoured candidate loses but it implies: “Clearly mine was the only logical choice so anyone who voted the wrong way can’t have been thinking rationally, they must have been prejudiced.”
4. The fact that it was an ex post rationalisation suggests it should be given even less weight.
3 - Never noticed that people who disliked Bill Clinton ever had a problem with making that very public! That goes for liberal Democrats as much as conservative Republicans.
The first woman President of the United States will NOT be a candidate who makes the running on account of her husband’s political coattails.
Hillary Clinton’s candidacy is an updated version of the traditional Pa Ferguson > Ma Ferguson model. Very 20th century.
4 John L - I’m repeating what I was told, and adding that I found it plausible, in the absence of any other obvious explanation.
She emphasised these were not strong forces, but in a close run race, they didn’t need to be. She also thought that it was something of a rebound from Iowa and characteristic of the way people in New Hampshire might think.
These are nuances, John, and one should treat them with care but like I say, nobody else has yet come out with a convincing explanation of why the polls, including exit polls, were wrong.
5 How do you explain it, Harry? The polls were well outside the MoE.
8. Clearly it was the result of a vast right wing conspiracy
7,8 — iirc the polls were actually correct with regard to Obama and Edwards but understated Clinton, in which case the most likely explanation is poor weighting.
But a good rule of thumb is that all American polls are rubbish.
10. Can we call that “John L’s Rule”?
Current delegate count (including the super delegates) in the Democrat race is Obama 1,366 / Clinton 1,268. She’s slipping back further and further.
10 “But a good rule of thumb is that all American polls are rubbish.”
So, where does that leave us, John? All at sea without a compass?
In the last thread, I was arguing that whilst you should understand and respect polls, you shouldn’t close your mind to other sources, even of the ‘man down the pub type.’ This is especially true if the man or men or ladies in question are intelligent and well informed.
You cannot dismiss all US polls as rubbish. If that were true, nobody would pay for them. Some are a lot better than others, but mostly they’re pretty good most of the time. They were all wrong in New Hamshire though, including the exit polls.
I think in those circumstances, you do listen to what the locals say, especially if they are political anoraks, like us.
O/T - Prince Harry has been on the frontline… one imagines he isn’t there now or else this story wouldn’t have broken.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7269743.stm
Oh well … it’s out now. Drudge is reporting that Prince Harry has been in Afghanistan for a couple of months. The ‘embargo’ had been broken in Oz and Germany and now the States.
Is Obama really home and dry? I would say so.
He just keeps on winning; primary after primary, wherever they are held, whatever the demographics, whether they are caucuses or not. He’s ahead in the Texas polls and closing in Ohio. He has a clear lead in state delegates and in the popular vote and is closing in superdelegates. He has at least drawn each of the last two debates and possibly shaded a win in both.
Mathematically Hillary needs to win both Texas and Ohio convincingly to have a chance of getting back into the race. I think she will do well to win either.
8 - Several points against that. Principally, your story might explain why Hillary won but doesn’t explain the polls being wrong.
Certainly, if Hillary was the conservative choice and Obama the liberal one, there was no reason not to admit your preference as a Clinton-ite to pollsters. Indeed, if social acceptability is an issue, it would be easier to “admit” to supporting Hillary than Obama in a conservative state. Even if Hillary was the choice for closet racists, that is not a strong reason to deny you are supporting her to pollsters. She is not BNP, she has strong support among hispanics, and was a frontrunner before Obama emerged as her major challenger and while several white candidates (mainly Edwards) were involved.
Significantly, a lot of polls have been wrong in this contest, and not consistently so. Obama has won some states with much bigger margins than expected.
I think the main answers in New Hampshire were late swing after the tears, independents deciding to vote in the Republican race because it looked like a closer race, and some Obama supporters staying at home as they thought it was won.
PtP @ 13 re US polls. Some are accurate and some not but if we have no way of knowing which is which (at least before the event) then they may as well all be wrong.
17 James
Yes, and I certainly agree with your last paragraph. My friend perhaps added another possible dimension, no more than that.
When predicting TX for Hillary I was assuming it was a Primary but the more you read about it - and the mode of election - it seems like Obama should be able to take this one in delegate numbers if not the popular vote - and Ohio now looks close - and with VT going to Obama it seems like Lady Hillary with have small consolation if she only wins RI - so I assume that on March 5th or earlier Hillary will bow out and Obama will be the Democratic nominee - and on that date we will switch our support to Obama instead of Hillary
18 So we ignore them all, John L?
And we rely on what - the man down the pub? Exclusively?
Come on John, you take account of everything, but you’re a bit wary of US polls, especially those with the initials A.R.G.
See link for maps showing how Ohio counties have voted in each Nov. presidential election since 1960.
Note that both Jimmy Carter & Bill Clinton did well in southeastern Ohio, which is an extension of the upland south. Expect Hillary Clinton to win this turf next week, except for Athens County (home of Ohio University) which should go for Obama. Note: in 1972, Athens and Lucas (Toledo) were the only OH counties to vote for George McGovern.
http://politics.ohio.com/ohio-presidential-voting/
UK consumer confidence fell to a 13 year low today. Recession is on the way…
Some good news for Charlie K at last http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Landslide-for-Kennedy-in-university.3824062.jp
New Hamsphire Redux
The notion that more “conservative” Democrats went for Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary is hardly earthshattering. As PtP’s notes, his friend’s observation was not the sole cause for Hillary’s NH victory. But it was an important factor.
In fact, the social conservatism of traditional conservative-to-moderate Democrats has helped Clinton in many states where these groups are a substantial share of the primary electorate.
The role of racism is more complex. Because racism itself is a very complicated thing in the United States due to our history, culture, ideals and inconsistencies.
The “flipflop” of civil rights legend and US Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) is just one notable illustration of the complexities of racism and the stuggle against it in American life and politics.
20. rej4sl. Will you both still be holding your noses if you have to vote for Obama and if so, why?
An interesting ’scandal’ is being predicted by Geoffrey Brooking on Vote-2007 and Guido’s site, to wit…
‘I think Mr G. Fawkes that over the next few days your assertion about the waryness of the LibDems wil be proved wrong - they want power and only with Labour will they get it - Vote Nick Get More Gordon / Vote nick for Gordon…. or Vote Clegg and get covered in Brown stuff…’
Lib Dems about to announce a formal pact with Labour - certainly that would fit with Clegg’s behaviour so far. Or is there a more murky/sleazy aspect to this, given the use of the word ’scandal’?
21 Agree with the caveats on US polls - especially ARG - but polls are the victim of the the one big random factor of those who decide on the day (think Bob Worcester pointed out it was something quite large, 10% or so). So a lot of New Hampshire women faced with decision could have at last moment changed their minds/made up their minds and gone with the first female candidate.
Doesn’t explain the exit polls but that could be weighting factors - exits need to be balanced carefully to account for patterns of voting; a surge of women voters at particular times could have been missed.
Then there is the possible Bradley factor but that hasn’t been very evident elsewhere.
26 - In a way he kind of grows on you as long as you don’t listen to one of his 44 minute speeches
- and the differences between him and Hillary are minute - so it won’t be a difficulty to vote for him - would prefer him to have more experience but you can’t change that - and would also like him to support Universal Health Care but we can change that 
27 - Geoffrey Brooking is a Conservative hack who often posts on Vote 2007 and I think a good rule of thumb is that he can safely be ignored in all of his “predictions” and comments on other parties.
re 27. Absolutely no way. Look what happened to Ming when he started making the same sounds a year ago. That was, in many ways, the beginning of the end for him.
Congratulations to the new rector! Who will no doubt set new standards of rectortude!
Hey Boss (and other Lib Dems), don’t you think that your party was extraordinarily boneheaded in tossing Charles Kennedy over the side?
Especially when his successor is not Vince Cable, the guy who looks like your (other) natural leader from an outsider’s perspective?
Back in 2001, I timed my vacation for the UK general election. Which of course proved to be boring beyond belief; only thing that enlivened that dreay contest was the fistcuffs of Two Jags and the attractions of ffion Hague.
Anyway, as I cruised my rental car (coping with a left-handed shifter, fer Jaysus sake!) through hill & dale & roundabout (yikes!) often I was soothed by the dulcet Highlands voice of Charles Kennedy.
And when I was browsing the stacks at a Charing Cross bookstore, the young Black clerk was eager & sincere in his praise of Charlie.
Strikes me that one thing CK had going for him - as does Barrack Obama - is the Outlander attraction.
Others with this same attraction have included Disraeli, Hitler, Bernadotte, Stalin, de Valera.
Perhaps even Sarkozy & Merkel?
27. Surely no chance of a Lib Dem - Lab pact… this is presumably Tory mischief. The only possibility is that Gordon is taking a punt on electoral reform. And frankly, his government hasn’t got any other ideas, so why not?
Could make for an interesting triple referendum. In or out? Lisbon or not? FPTP or STV? Anyone got any other questions to add to the mix? We could have a bizarre mega-referendum to end all referendums. And voters wouldn’t have a clue which bits they were meant to be saying “yes” and “no” to.
Ted 28. Quite so. The New Hampshire polls underestimated Clinton’s share. However the striking feature of recent contests has been that they have underestimated the scale of Obama’s victories. From South Carolina to the most recent Wisconsin win the scale of the disparity has at times been epic !!
32 When I had an automatic in UK I always found having a shift when driving left hand drive cars in right lane countries a very useful reminder to me to stay on the right.
CK was fine when sober - had he been sober through the campaign the Lib Dems might have made more headway. He seemed to be getting worse and I dread to think of his first PMQs against Brown.
32. “Hey Boss (and other Lib Dems), don’t you think that your party was extraordinarily boneheaded in tossing Charles Kennedy over the side?”
No, any leader who includes a referendum on a treaty in their manifesto deserves to go.
29 On the night of the Wisconsin Primary, the media covered Obama’s standard stadium stump speech. Which for the vast majority of those audiences was their first sustained exposure to the man (as opposed to the hype).
Can still remember going crazy out here in Washington State in 1992 - obviously have never fully recovered! - when Patty Murray kept going on about being “The Mom in Tennis Shoes”. Yet that repitition was the key to her winning election that year to the US Senate.
Do admire your fortitude in sticking it out for the full 45!
Mike Smithson must have missed all the reports that Clinton didn’t have a plan post super Tuesday and that they’ve been scrambling to get a campaign together in Texas and Ohio and struggling to get the moeny to pay for it.
32 Appologies to Ted for leaving General Smuts off the list.
32 And good point about the left shift - was so unnatural for me, as a right-handed (if not -thinking) American, that it was a useful reminder as you suggest.
Actually my standard practice when driving in the UK or Ireland is to take a few moments before entering the car EVERY time I get in, that I’m in a strange land with strange though nice people (mostly) who strangely drive on the wrong side of the road.
IF I don’t do this, run the risk of zooming out of the gas station (or petrol emporium if you prefer) and peeling down the right side of the road, which is the wrong thing to do!
As I once discovered, happily without serious or even minor consequences, on a dark and stormy night in Muff.
31. Well maybe but Clegg has been making unmistakable moves in this direction…it seems the gravitational pull of the burnt-out but yet super-heavy dead star that is Labour is simply too powerful to resist…
Fire at Bacton gas terminal in Norfolk - hopefully just an industrial incident and not terror related.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/norfolk/7269868.stm
38 Obama had certainly sent his best & brightest field people into the Buckeye & Lone Star States.
For example, Obama’s Ohio state director, Paul Tewes, was also his Iowa director.
And several years ago, Paul was the Washington State director for the Democratic coordinated campaign. He did an amazing job in WA, just as he did in Iowa and is no doubt doing it yet again in Ohio.
What’s going on, we’ve had several mentions in this thread about Europe, Lisbon and the Constitution, yet Mike Smithson has yet to pleasure us with a six week old poll of Herefordian cattle farmers showing that Europe is actually 396th on voters’ list of concerns, just behind fears of a nuclear attack by the Krankies backed by North Korea.
Mike, you’re slacking. Can’t you find the F1 button? Hurry up! This is your chance to make that same tedious and embarrassing point for the 100th time!
Go for it. Make the ton. We’re all behind you.
2.
New Hampshire is not a ‘conservative state’ it is a swing state that barely went for W in 2000 and actually went for Kerry in 2004. The reason why it is ‘first primary in the nation’ is because it is the sort of state that can decided elections.
I also don’t think that the NE is generally racist. In VT Obama is miles ahead of Clinton (and McCain is crushing Huckabee by an even larger margin).
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/28/obama-and-mccain-are-running-away-with-vermont/
44 - “Tedious and Embarrasing”
Hey, thought that was your byline!
re 44. Repeating the same point time on the EU time and time again. I wonder who is most guilty of that?
40 Muff?!
There is a place called Muff?!! The mind boggles.
47 Well repetition works for Obama
Mike, you keep making this point about older women, but it’s not be doing her much good, so why will it now.
It is curious, though, how younger females don’t seem so concerned about the ‘first woman President’.
45 Matthew
Naturally she meant conservative with a small c and neither of us were trying to depict the NE as racist. I tried to make it clear that we were talking about nuances that may have influenced a perplexing result, that’s all.
Seems I failed.
45 - Conservative has more senses than just rightwing.
In New England, traditional Democratic voters are among the most “conservative” elements of the community, now that most of the old Yankee Republican types have finally died off or relocated to the Sun Belt.
However, this loss in Democratic voting strength has been more than offset by newcomers who tend to be Democrats or even more commonly Democratic-leaning Independents, mostly well-educated, upscale, socially progressive people.
As for racism, this is NOT just a southern problem. It’s an American problem. (And even Canada is not immune from what I hear.) Voters in places like New Hampshire & Vermont are no more immune from overt or (much more common) latent racism in the voting booth than voters in Alabama or Mississippi.
45. For the Northeast, its a conservative state. If you want a picture of a true microcosm of the country its Colorado or Missouri. I disagree with the racism factor though, although it may have been a small issue. I think the result in New Hampshire was a mixture of moderates voting in the Republican primary after they thought the Democratic one was sealed, and citizens of New Hampshire not wanting to be told who had won before it happened.
21. I think the thing we need to consider with US polls is not the headline numbers, but how the candidates are doing among various demographics. Then you can check out the demographics of the state, and how big turnouts in those demographics have historically been, and how much potential for turnout they have this time. It’s the weighting that has been the cause of the problems in US polls.
52. Britain isn’t immune, either. Let’s face it, racism is everywhere.
Excellent thread Mike. I’m glad you acknowledge that it’s not necessarily quite over yet. Obama looks firm favourite, and rightly so. But this is not quite done and dusted yet. It really does hinge on Tuesday. IF Hillary can pull off the unthinkable and ‘hold’ Texas and Ohio she is still in with a real shout. Indeed, played correctly I could see her going on from that platform to the nomination.
However, one has to fancy Obama whilst rightly acknowledging the chink still showing through the door …
51. But you did use the term ‘racism’ in post 2. Peter. It seems that like many on the left you are very quick to accuse others of racist attitudes.
46 - just teasing, honest.
48 - It’s in Yokel’s neck of the woods, or leastways not far off.
52 - Democratic “loss” in the sense that many traditional Democrats in NH are likely swing voters these days, depending on the precise Democratic-Republican matchup in each race.
What’s really turned NH into a swing state has been the erosion of the traditional Yankee vote. For a long time, this was offset by conservative tax refugees from “Taxachusetts” but in recent years the incommer influx has been much more moderate and progressive.
PS - Don’t forget Rhode Island, where Hillary is ahead and will likely win next Tuesday. Because it it’s demographics are similary to the parts of NH, Massachusetts and Connecticut that Hilary won. In particular, lots of “traditional” Democrats.
53 “…And citizens of New Hampshire not wanting to be told who had won before it happened.”
This was another nuance which she mentioned. Sorry if I didn’t make that clear.
57 “It’s in Yokel’s neck of the woods, or leastways not far off.”
Figures somehow.
O/T - I notice Annabel (The Last Tory In Scotland) Goldie is on Question Time again tonight. Is there really no-one else they could turn to.
56 Well I qualified it, Harry, but if I misled, I am sorry. It is difficult to convey the subtelties she had in mind without more time, space and the literary skills of a SeanT.
61. Yes, I have a hard time emulating SeanT’s subtlety too.
53 - Another factor in New Hampshire was the fact that the Clinton have been camping out there since mid-1990.
Yet another factor: Obmama’s NH field operation was pretty awful. Whereas Hillary’s Granite State operation was led by Michael Wholey, one of the best, the guy who saved Kerry’s bacon in Iowa in 2004.
See Drudge is congratulating itself on breaking the news that Prince Harry has been on frontline in Afghanistan since December. Should Guido perhaps break the news of where the young McCain is serving in Iraq when he gets back there?
Hey, SeanT and you other PBer globetrotters, have you seen KEN BLACKWELL?
He’s former Ohio Secretary of State and 2006 GOP candidate for governor who was the state’s very partisan and highly controverial chief elections officer.
Apparently the US Congress is having difficulty locating him.
US House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers (D-MI):
“Mr. Ken Blackwell, wherever you are in North America today, please know that we are not sending the gendarme for you this moment,” said Conyers. “I do not like to issue subpoenas. … The only problem is we can never reach him.”
http://www.ohioverticals.com/blogs/political_news/2008/02/27/democrats-authorized-a-subpoena-for-ken-blackwell/
60,
“The last Tory in Scotland”
“Is there really no-one else they could turn to?”
I think you answered your own question
61. If only your friend Ken Newt and his unpleasant acolytes took the same reasonable attitude, Peter.
66. I thought they had a Scottish MP? He doesn’t get as much air time, though.
NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD ****
Peter THE Punter Plans World Domination From Highgate.
69 Jack, you must join us.
We’re meeting by Karl Marx statue. Midnight. Don’t be late.
44. Sean, you asked me a question earlier and I didn’t answer - it was the end of my lunch break - but I can answer now.
“113. So on that basis you’d be perfectly happy for the next Tory government to roll back every single European Treaty we have signed, since the first one in 1975, WITHOUT a referendum.”
I doubt I’d be happy with much a future Tory government might do, but on the referendum question, if the Tories want to muck up Britain’s relationship with Europe, they should have the bottle to do it off their own bat, not outsource the decision to the voters.
67 “Your friend Ken Newt.”
You are kidding, Harry? If you do read my posts, you will know exactly how I feel about the Newtman, not to mention his acolytes.
68,
If David Mundell was one of mine, I’d keep him under wraps too.