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The MORI poll he reported is nearly three weeks old

I have now got the fieldwork dates and some other details from the private MORI poll for Labour that Ken “pulled out of the hat” as news of the 5% deficit in the YouGov survey came out.

The MORI fieldwork started getting on for three weeks ago, on February 8th and went on until the 12th. A sample of 808 Londoners was interviewed by telephone.

The survey found on that on the first round it was 38% Livingstone, 35% Johnson and 14% Paddick. When second preferences were taken into account that moved to Ken 49% to Boris 47%.

The latest YouGov poll, which was commissioned by a media organisation, ITN, was conducted last week and had Boris on 44%, Ken on 39% with Paddick at 12%. In between the MORI and YouGov polls lee Jasper was suspended.

My understanding is that Labour and Ken knew about the MORI poll almost as soon as it had been completed but it was deemed to be a deadly secret because of the closeness of the finding.

When Ken announced it yesterday, without providing the supporting data, I asked MORI for the detailed information and they obviously were not expecting the request.

I am assured that the full data will be provided in the two day time period that is laid down.

In the Mayoral betting Ken has moved out to 0.74/1 with Boris moving in to 1.2/1. My view, based on the evidence we have, is that Boris is now the marginal favourite.

Mike Smithson

Could Clinton’s sustained attacks impede Obama?

The final debate ahead of the critical March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio has ended with Hillary not managing to make the knock-out blow that she needed to.

My view was that she probably won on points - but only by a narrow margin. The questioning by MSNBC’s political team was much tougher than we have seen.

At one point I thought that Hillary “had” her opponent when he was pressed about an endorsement from Louis Farrakhan, the controversial Islamic minister. Obama said he denounced Farrakhan but Clinton suggested that he needed to do more and reject the endorsement. After some pressure Obama accepted the point and his good humour won it with the audience but my guess is that the Clinton spinners will point to this as a victory.

Obama was not convincing when pressed on what he would do if the Russians intervened in Kosovo. Hillary was perhaps fortunate that the question was not put to her.

The nomination betting prices have hardly moved with Obama on 0.22/1.

Mike Smithson

Is the Mayor being hit by all bad publicity?

A new YouGov poll for London ITV News has Ken fallen 5% behind Boris in the race for the London Mayoralty. These ae the shares compared with the last proper survey from the firm in December - JOHNSON 44%(nc): LIVINGSTONE 39%(-5): PADDICK 12%(+5)

The YouGov boss, Peter Kellner has confirmed to me that the survey took place from Tuesday to Thursday of last week and involved a sample of 1,003. In a TV interview this evening Kellner said that he thought that “Ken was in Trouble”.

In response Livingstone has said that Labour’s private polling is showing that he is still ahead - by 2% of those certain to vote. This is from a survey from Ipsos-MORI. When I see the detail I will give it prominence.

I contacted the pollster this evening for the information and was told that information about the survey would be made available within the time-frame laid down - which is two days.

What are critical are the dates of the fieldwork for the Ipsos-MORI survey. Did this take place at the same time or is it a bit old or newer?

In the mayoral betting you can still get 6/4 on Boris which seems like a bargain.

Mike Smithson

Is this the woman who will join Obama on the ticket?

Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in Hillary’s campaign in the next few days then in the middle of next week speculation will turn to who the junior senator from Illinois will choose to be his running mate.

There has, of course, been talk that it should be Hillary herself and certainly that would please large sections of the party. But after the campaign that we have seen and her tactics in the past few days is that going to be possible? And would having a Clinton on the ticket simply reinforce the Republican vote?

What Hillary has shown, however, is that there is a large constituency of women voters which needs to be kept on board. A woman on the ticket could play a big part.

Consider, therefore, Kathleen Sebelius - the Governor of Kansas who, herself, was tipped as a potential candidate for for President after Kerry’s defeat.

Speculation about her future was heightened by the fact that in January she was chosen by the Party’s congressional leaders to give the to Bush’’s to Republican President George W. Bush’s State of the Union Address.

She also got onto the Obama band-wagon early. A week before Super Tuesday and the Kansas Caucus she endorsed his campaign. Obama won the caucus easily, with over 70% support. Kathleen has also done TV spots for Barack.

She’s also chair of the Democratic Governors Association - which is often described as a very good launchpad for those with political ambitions.

On Betfair Kathleen is the 3.6/1 favourite - well ahead of her PaddyPower price of 5/1. When there’s such a differential between a fixed odds price and the betting exchange then the former won’t last long.

The most I was allowed to put on was £78 - but that should give a reasonable return.

Mike Smithson

Why don’t Ken’s voters back him on the congestion charge?

By far and away the biggest political betting event in the UK this year is the London Mayoral election on May 1st. Five million people will be able to vote and the outcome will set the scene for the coming general election.

But as we’ve noted before - there has been almost no polling data on which to make predictions. We’ve had just one survey in 2008 and only 240 people expressed an opinion.

But details of another survey have just come out. It’s a private poll from ICM that was taken in January and seeks to measure response to what has become Ken Livingstone flag-policy, the London Congestion Charge and the plans to increase the daily fee to £25 for the most gas-guzzling cars. This might be clutching at straws but in a poll starved environment any data might be useful.

The Livingstone voters of 2004 think, by 55% to 38%, that the basic congestion charge of £8 is unfair. On the proposed £25 daily charge for gas-guzzlers 65% of Ken’s supporters four years ago thought the level was too high, 31% thought it “about right” and 2% said it was “too low”.

Yet when it comes to having to pay the charge 62% of the Ken supporters said they had never paid it, presumably because they do not take cars into central London, against just 1% who said they paid it every day.

It will be recalled that the mayor’s own congestion charge poll has become something of an issue. A week last Friday we reported on the decision of the British Polling Council to launch a formal inquiry into the refusal of Ipsos-MORI to make available the detailed data of a survey they had carried out on the issue. That is being withheld in apparent breach of the BPC’s transparency rules because the client, TfL won’t let it be published.

In contrast ICM’s full polling data was made available the day after the firm’s client, Porshe, had released some of the findings.

In the betting Ken continues to be the odds on favourite but Boris’s prices has tightened. I think this race is going to be very close and Johnson remains the value bet.

Mike Smithson

Did Cameron benefit from the Auschwitz row exposure?

A new poll by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent shows a three point move back to the Tories since last month. The shares are CON 41% (+3): LAB 30% (nc): LD 17% (nc)

If the pollster was following its normal pattern then the fieldwork would have taken place from Friday until Sunday when one of the big political stories was the row of David Cameron’s Auschwitz trip press release.

My theory, as regular visitors will know, is that the Tories do better in polls if their leader is in the news at the start of the fieldwork period irrespective of whether it is positive or negative coverage.

The survey follows other polls last week which showed that the Tory lead was falling and the shares of 41% equals the highest ever level recorded by the pollster.

After last week’s polls which seemed to suggest that Labour was coming out of the Northern Rock crisis unscathed this new survey will come as a blow.

One factor which probably hurts Labour with the firm is the way the turn-out is calculated. ICM filters so it only includes those saying 7/10 or more and they are all given the same value. ComRes filters out those below 5/10 but then weights responses in line with the expressed certainty. YouGov does not filter or weight on the certainty to vote.

So the extraordinary diverse range of polling results at the moment continues.

Mike Smithson