politicalbetting.com

Peter the Punter looks at possible new developments (1)

The day after Super Tuesday, Mike and small group of us PB camp followers met in a café near Leicester Square and despite suffering election night fatigue, alleviated only slightly by some rather nice red wine, a number of ideas emerged, the more sensible of which Mike asked me to mention here.

Social Events PB Parties have proved very popular and been well supported. Naturally we are not limited to one a year and we propose another in early summer, probably at the National Liberal Club again, especially if we can book the terrace overlooking the Embankment. Technically I suppose PB resides in cyberspace but the NLC has become its unofficial home on earth and for very good reason. Not only is it a superb building but it provides ideal accommodation and sustenance at reasonable prices. We will probably be using it increasingly, and not just for parties.

We would like to organise some smaller get-togethers: perhaps a dinner, or simply drinks. Again, the NLC suggests itself as a suitable venue but there are plenty of alternatives. These are easily arranged and need not necessarily involve Mike or me, but if people want to use me as a conduit, I am happy to assist. It would be nice if some of these events could take place out of London, but it would need somebody local to arrange them and so far nobody has stepped forward.

We also thought there might be a demand for some small seminars and talks. The PB community includes a number of journalists, pollsters, MPs, media people and the like who I am sure could be prevailed upon to offer their services at a modest cost. Again, the NLC or possibly the House of Commons suggest themselves as venues. Such events could easily be combined with suitable sustenance and I am sure would be very enjoyable.

On the betting front, some will recall that I promised in an earlier thread to set up a syndicate that would place hypothetical bets and win a notional £20,000. Morus quickly pointed out the flaw. A bet simply isn’t real unless it’s for real money. We have decided therefore to see if we can find about, say, ten people willing to pool their money to get this venture off the ground. Results would be open for all on PB to see, though obviously only syndicate members would have access to the funds and the authority to bet with them.

Mike and I will be very interested to hear everybody’s views. We can then we can make a few announcements once we have gauged the response.

Finally, we haven’t forgotten about revamping Formal Wagers Corner. This has been delayed by some minor technical hitches.

And even more finally, we have been kicking around an idea to promote PB in the wider media, but I’ll deal with that in another htread thread.

Peter the Punter (Peter Smith)

Is this approach really going to keep her voters on side?

With just one week and one day to go before the crucial Texas and Ohio primaries Hillary Rodham Clinton has stepped up the rhetoric with this speech overnight.

It look as though the strategy is to do everything she can to get her core voters, mostly elder women, out to vote. Could it be that like in New Hampshire in early January this will boost turnout.

The trouble is that she looks like a poor loser and that the attacks will just reinforce the desire of Obama supporters to make sure that they vote.

In the betting there has been a slight easing in the Obama price.

Mike Smithson

But does talk of “change” work when you are bidding for a third term?

With the fight the Democratic nomination hardly being off our screens during 2008 it is perhaps not surprising that Obama’s rhetoric, the phrases he uses, the way he constructs sentences and most of all the words themselves should start to have an influence in UK politics.

Just take the following high-blown quote from a statement that a group of Labour supporting academics, writers and artists, have sent to the Guardian today. The signatories include Lord Puttnam, the singer and songwriter Billy Bragg and the actor Tony Robinson.

“…This election matters to the nation, not just the capital. Livingstone represents a hope that something better is possible; that a different type of society is not just some pipe dream of the left, but can be created.”

That, surely, is pure Obama. Perhaps the writer had the TV on while the statement was being drafted?

But does talk of change and hope work in the London Mayoral context when the Labour flag carrier has been in the post for eight years and is having to fight off successive media stories about his handling of the position? I don’t think so - the phrases are good but they don’t resonate when they are in support of an incumbent.

In the London mayoral race betting Ken is the 0.68/1 favourite with Boris at 1.6/1. In the White House race betting Obama is the 0.9/1 favourite to become the next President.

Mike Smithson

Will Obama be able to outspend him by three or four to one?

One statistic that came out of Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary was that in the TV advertising war in the state Barack Obama spent five times as much as the cash-starved Clinton campaign. That’s a massive difference and might have had an impact on the outcome.

Looking forward to a McCain-Obama contest in November could the Democratic campaign have a similar overwhelming advantage? And if it does could the main cause have been the pioneering legislation that John McCain helped pushed through Congress six years ago. Quite simply could the likely GOP nominee be skewered by his own bill?

To give an idea of the battle he had to fight to get the legislation I’ve reproduced part of the cover of a National Rifle Association publication that was used to campaign against the McCain-Feingold bill - the law that, amongst other things, restricts the amount someone can give to a campaign to $2300.

A big consequence of this is that it puts a premium on being able to attract a mass of small donations - something which the traditional US political fundraising machines have never really paid attention to. It’s so much easier to get one person to give you $100,000 than to get 2000 people to give you $50.

Howard Dean saw the potential ahead of his abortive 2004 bid and Obama has followed in his wake. Both used the internet extensively and both built up massive databases of supporters. It’s now being suggested that the Illinois senator is heading towards a total of one million individual donors - almost all of whom can be contacted instantly by email and have yet to be “maxed” out, that is given the legal maximum.

Another problem that McCain faces is that last year he bid for federal funding, a key condition of which is a strict limit on what can be spent. He’s now trying to get out of that but is being told that he might have to stick with this.

If this is going to be down to money - then Barack looks like a winner.

White House race betting is here.

• Could we use this thread for US politics only and continue discussion on UK developments on the previous one?

Mike Smithson

How long can he go on after his spokesman’s resignation?

The big political news in the UK this morning is about the future of the Speaker of the House of Commons, Michael Martin, following the resignation yesterday of the £2000 a day consultant whose job it is to deal with the media on his behalf.

The Mail on Sunday splashes its investigation and reports that the advisor, and former Whitehall mandarin Mike Granatt, had quit “after admitting that the Speaker’s office had not told the truth about £4,000 worth of taxpayer-funded taxi rides Mr Martin’s wife Mary took to go shopping.”

He is quoted as saying: “I have found it no longer possible to work as the media adviser to the House of Commons Commission, and I have informed Mr Speaker that I am stepping down immediately..It is core to the ethical code by which I and my company operate that I tell the truth, and that I am given the truth to tell..However, I learned on Friday that I had been led to mislead journalists over material facts in a story concerning the Speaker’s household and the use of taxis..I have expressed my regrets to the [Mail on Sunday] journalist who brought this to my attention, and I offer them to anyone else who was similarly misled. I want to make it clear this arose through no fault of the Speaker.”

That last point might provide some help to Martin - who has been in the job since 2000. Also the role of Speaker is totally above the fray and he cannot be sacked. So the question is whether he can ride out the media storrm.

The essence of this morning’s story is that the paper established that he and his wife have been “using a secret limousine service to ferry them around in London and their home town, Glasgow – also at taxpayers’ expense..The Martins use £50,000 S-class Mercedes and Jaguar cars.”

This follows the row over him claiming a second-homes allowance on his constituency house in Glasgow – even though he has no mortgage on it and he is provided with what is described as a “lavish grace-and-favour apartment in the Commons”.

There is, of course, a political dimension with many opposition MPs claiming that he favours Labour members in debates. But he has his defenders. The Labour MP and regular PB contributor, Nick Palmer, posted this last night:”..there’s a lot to be said for MM’s charm - “The Honourable Member is usually very calm, it’s a shame he is getting so excited” rather than “Sit down!”

Will he survive? I would not bet on it but you don’t get to progress in Glasgow Labour politics without being tough.

There is no betting market yet - but I’m sure one will emerge in the next day or so.

Mike Smithson

Surprisingly, the server migration appears to have gone through relatively painlessly. Hopefully the site should run a little more quickly now, especially under heavy load. Thanks for your patience, Robert