Is Boris about to become favourite for Mayor?
March 1st, 2008
As the chart, reflecting betting prices as implied probabilities, shows there has been an easing of Ken’s Mayoral election price and a tightening of Boris’s and most of this has happened in the past 36 hours.
I don’t know what’s driving it. The last major news items were the opinion polls on Tuesday. On the Sporting Index spread market Boris has this morning been priced as the clear favourite.
My only explanation is that Labour is holding its Spring Conference in Birmingham and possibly gloomy predictions about Ken’s chances are being discussed. We do know that a lot of private polling has been commissioned.
Mike Smithson
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Sorry to go off topic on the first post, but I’ve made an excel spreadsheet/sort-of-swingometer detailing states, 2004 vote, latest polling and delegate sizes for the Presidential Election. Would anyone else be interested in this, and what’s the best way for me to share it with the pb.com community?
Cost me £400 to answer this question, but its now a definite YES!
It was a good call pointing him out at 2/1.
re 1. Email it to me at politicalpunter@gmail.com and leave it to me.
There’s certainly been a sharp movement over the past 24 hrs - I was able to buy Boris at 14.8 on Spreadfair’s 25-10-0 index, equivalent to 2.12/1, on Tuesday morning - now he’s less than evens for an immediate buy.
Indeed - a very shrewd call on Boris when he was he outsider. Easy to see where the momentum is coming from at the moment, but I still think Boris is easy to campaign against and eould say that Ken is approaching value.
Blears on Boris
“He’s a nasty, right-wing elitist, with odious views and criminal friends like Conrad Black.”
yet five sentences later
“As we fight these elections on a positive platform of value for money services…….”
Things are so bad that the only way Labour can motivate their few London activists is to try and paint Boris as some sort of evil nazi.
This is a man who actually has a wide level of support cutting across people’s political beliefs.
Re 6. Strongly agree. Bozza may yet swing it but his high ratings so far are due to his Tory handlers keeping him off the media. When the campaign proper begins, they (and he) may find it harder.
Just watching Gord’s speech at the conference. The content is good but he does lack the confidence at the moment to deliver it properly. It does not bode well for a general election campaign.
re 8. I don’t think it is much about the media - but the demographics of London and the voting system.
The problem with Labour attempt to portray him as being “nasty” is that it does not fit with the public perception. There has to be an element of truth in an attack if it is to resonate.
Back to the core vote discussion on the last thread. I’ve just found this interesting detail from Anthony Wells on UK Polling report.
This month YouGov asked a question that mirrors that pattern - whether people thought the Conservatives would do better, the same, or worse than Labour if they were in power. 36% of people thought they would do better, and naturally enough are very likely to be voting Tory. 30% of people think they would be much the same - people who have no positive reason to vote Tory, but for whom a risk message would presumably not work. 27% think the Tories would do worse than Labour, none of these people say they would vote Tory.
Dependent on the breakdown of the 27% who would not vote for the Conservatives, it suggests that potentially real Labour core vote % could be significantly lower than 30-33%?
Its up to other parties to offer the change that would draw former and currently marginal Labour supporters away from them. Of course what that change should be, is the $64 Million question…..
7
Following on
It appears NuLabour are getting rattled by Boris
Labour activists were warned today that the race for Mayor of London was the closest since the office was created eight years ago.
The stark declaration came from Minister for London Tessa Jowell, speaking at the party’s spring conference in Birmingham.
Introducing Mr Livingstone, who is fighting to be elected for a third term in May, she told delegates to imagine waking up to Mr Livingstone’s Tory opponent Boris Johnson having won at the ballot box.
Ms Jowell went on: “Don’t laugh. The mayoral race this time is closer than it’s been at any point since Labour gave London back its government eight years ago.”
I shall start lumping some of the family fortune on Boris in the coming week.
re 12. I would get your money on now while it’s above evens.
11 posted a reply on last thread.
re 13 - Sorry - Boris has now become the Betfair favourite at 0.9/1.
12-15. Recent action is just me trading around. I’ve put a lump up on the bid if anyone wants to allocate some family fortune..
If Livingstone goes down the Clinton campaigning route he’ll get the same result. Unfortunately, for him, he’s too stuck in the old ways and the public will find it difficult to believe a sudden Damascene conversion.
10 Agree Mike - Gordon has been in front line of politics for two decades, has given platform speeches for most of those and yet he just seems unable to perform.
(Tory Harpy piece) He did OK of course in the paean of praise he delivered in September 2007 to Himself, his father, Himself, his moral compass, Himself, his vision. Maybe he just finds it hard when he can’t talk modestly about how wonderful he is?
Hmm, I wonder what possibly could have affected the prices. Perhaps Mike’s incessant ramping??
19) Nothing wrong with Mike stating what appears to be clear given the evidence. Boris should be the favourite, not Ken. There are not many markets to bet on right now so Mike’s focus is obvious…
19 Welcome back Borat, although may I suggest you’ll find it easier to win friends and influence people if you don’t insult the host.
19 - Maybe you should take notice of the polls. If you don’t then you clearly aren’t interested in the betting aspect.
11 - well to me it would look like those +/- 27% would be the hard core vote to which you could also say there are some tribalists who would vote Labour even though they think Lab and Con would be as effective in power.
As a floating voter it does amaze me that people support political parties like they do football teams - i.e. blindly, through thick and thin. But it looks like the vast majority do so.
19 - that’s daft Borat - Mike has been going on about this since the Autumn but the price has only started to shift since all the Lee Jaspers stuff has emerged.
7&10 - agree completely with you both. Boris has a perception of being an entertainer rather than anyone who can get things done, has no experience at this level, has made worrying policy flip-flops, has shown no real interest in London issues before, and makes offensive gaffes fairly regularly.
Quite why Labour are attacking him by saying he is ‘nasty’ I have no idea - this does not chime at all! If Labour lose with this strategy it will be a gift to the Tories.
Interesting to see Davis at a Boris Crime fighting event. I wonder if the Tories plan to project Govt in waiting image further if Boris wins by effectively handing the Mayor’s influence over the Met to a Taskforce headed by Davis (I imagine Basher would relish hauling Ian Blair over the coals regularly) over finances to Osborne etc. Could be clever would also keep Boris on a tight leash til election day
14. Ted, I agree that there is a general disillusionment with the current political parties and the behaviour of politicians. The good thing is that it has bought under far greater scrutiny what exactly their actions have been and what the rules surrounding them are.
Since 1997, Labour vote has fallen nearly as much as the Conservatives (some 4 million). Whilst, there could be many reasons why that is, a good proportion has to be disillusionment and given the Major Government’s performance prior to that it is little wonder that people might have turned their back on political parties.
Interesting that you highlight the 45-55 age group (my generation) who grew up during the 60’s (world cup wins,moon landings, swinging sixties) and 70’s (strikes, economic turmoil, the EEC) and whose early adult decades would have been dominated politically by Margaret Thatcher ( love her or hate her). Given the contrast between her and Major or Blair it is of little surprise again that people lost interest. Neither of them to me had her stature or integrity (whether you agreed with her politics or not) and both have been shrouded with a perception of sleaze.
From a personal point I didn’t vote in GE’s between 1987 and 2005. So I am one of those who turned their backs on politicians (for various reasons) and perhaps equally I am one of the early returners (to get rid of this Government)?
With that I have to be off-line for a while…..
o/t
Hillary starting to make a comeback in Texas?
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Clinton_Closes_on_Obama_i/2008/03/01/76967.html
28 - Hah! A cunning plan indeed; lose a massive lead, alienate half the voters and then claim that a mere two point deficit is a comeback.
She needs to win Texas by 20% or more to be still in the race, it isn’t happening.
25 Looked at the London.gov website to see exactly what the responsibilities of a Mayor of London are ans what specific life experience would be required.
First thing that struck me was “Good God I hope Boris wins and gets rid of this vanity publishing”. Picture of Ken at top of every page except those of the London Assembly. Probably the most personalised public website in the UK.
From what I can gather he’s responsible directly for planning, housing & transport so it’s a jumped up District Council; politicians indicate priorities, the department heads ansd staff do the work and provide the choices. The rest of the job is about “promotion of” , “involvement with” , “co-operation” so well within the capabilities of most politicians. If it required any skills whatsoever besides politics Ken couldn’t have done it.
29 Well, not quite 20%, UKPaul.
19% maybe. You do exaggerate.
31 - Actually, I was being generous; she needs to win nearly 60% of the remaining delegates, but don’t forget that there are still states where she is less well supported than Texas and the apportioning system which means that she needs to get a higher proportion of votes to eke out those delegates.
She’s 155 behind, there are 991 delegates left, to claw those back she needs 573 to 418, with states like Mississippi and North Carolina likely to be losses, I’d say it’s more like 65% needed.
26. Vote Boris get Davis
Latest: Arsenal 0 - 1 Villa
32) and all. The Texas system is such that in many precincts there are 4 delegates up for grabs, allocated as to which allocation is closer to the % won - eg 3-1 or 2-2. Obama or Hillary need then a huge majority over the other for the result not to be 2-2. The more populous states when the proportioning is more accurate (more delegates) are often more pro-Obama.
The Texas primary is unlikely to move the needle for Hillary, and the caucus - where Obama has been stronger -adds to her problems. No surprise that HRC’s team are asking for the caucus delegate tally to not be announced.
Completely mad but the way Ken is going. What odds are there on him not making the 2nd round. If they’re in excess of 80-1 might have a think at that point
35 Well the following might help Hillary to see opportunities fort additional superdelegates. Odd non-random pattern - most congressional super-delegates seem to lean to the campaign which paid them more. So I suppose Obama has an edge in being able to give more cos he’s got deeper pockets.
http://www.capitaleye.org/superdelegates.asp
30
You are right it’s no big deal,Livingstone’s been doing the job with a so called transport advisor that never attends any transport meetings and Lee Jaspar whose only experience and qualification for the job is his friendship with Livingstone.
Not difficult to improve on that.
Oh yes, you are right we get the obligatory picture of Livingstone on every communication and vitually every page of his newspaper telling us what a great job he is doing.
Certainly he’s learn’t the propaganda bit well from Castro,Chavez et al.
38 Oh yes, you are right we get the obligatory picture of Livingstone on every communication and vitually every page of his newspaper telling us what a great job he is doing.
…. as well at the multi-coloured words “Mayor of London” on every TfL, etc.,etc. billboard - such that it becomes little more than a self-publicising propaganda exercise. I really am surprised this is legally allowed.
Text of Brown’s speech:
http://www.labour.org.uk/spring08/gordon_brown_speaks_to_conference
Two reactions:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/01/gordonbrown.labour?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/march2008/springconference.htm
i see he nicked my joke about student politics.
40.On a light hearted note. I spotted this description of Brown’s appearance from Rosa Prince “Scene - Tory blue backdrop, billowing union flags, smart dark suit, purple tie.”
Look at this picture of Cameron at their Welsh conference.
Imitation the sincerest form of flattery???
re 36. If Ken did not make the final two then Paddick would be the likely winner - getting many more second prefs than Boris. I just don’t think that that is a possibility.
Ben Brogan slightly more jaundiced than Patrick Wintour
http://www.capitaleye.org/superdelegates.asp
at the end of an interminably dull Q&A session that saw at least one person stretchered out of the hall, Mr Brown shot to his feet and tried a Cameron. For five minutes he spoke without notes, podium or autocue about the Tories. And it wasn’t bad - by his standards.
42 Me neither really. I just wanted the odds. If they’re insanely attractive might be worth a fun Foinavon bet
30 - interesting Ted. Transport, housing and planing make sense, and much of the rest of the role seems to be promotion of the city and there is plenty of space to fit the role to the postholder’s priorities. Which in Ken’s case clearly involve so many photos of himself that I wonder if he’s a closet Lib Dem after all…
I would still suggest that the perception of Boris not having the experience/instinct to manage London will hit home if it is campaigned on strongly though.
41. I wonder all this Brown for Britishness stuff with British flags being draped everywhere is actually harming him. Fair or unfair, many on the left and (due to the left’s constant arguments) the centre have a semiconscious feeling that the Union flag only stands for a symbol of our imperial past. Even if they reject this on a logical level, as they should, they are being alienated on an emotional one. The only people it could work on is the centre-right and right, but they either support Cameron or hate Brown anyway.
4. I don’t have it on this computer but I will send it to you in the next couple of days.
Sorry but London has too many EU citizens and ethnic minorities to vote for Englishman Boris. They will want and vote for multicultural New Labour Ken Livingstone and he’ll win again.
46 Square this circle-I’m a centrist Labour voter,who feels frustrated by Brwon-I admit to finding Cameron likeable as a human being,and for moments,I contemplate the unthinkable (i.e voting Tory)-usually a Redwood right Tory is enough to make me run the proverbial mile,but one day..(As a 12 year-old in 1983 I admit to wanting Mrs.T to be re-elected)
48 - what is the differential turnout likely to be between “EU citizens and ethnic minorities” and WASP Londoners? Anybody got any ideas?
49 Its now 44 days,and still chewing away on the gum-it actually has an antidepressant effect,releasing dopamine into your brian-as someone prone to severe clinical depression no bad thing!
re 49 - take up fags again.
49 - what you say is interesting as you are not the sort of voter I think that Cameron is trying to win over. You come across as economically (centre-)left, and a social authoritarian. I think that Cameron is after the centre-right social liberal vote.
Has Cameron already achieved triangulation?
Some intriguing action on the Ohio Primary market here at Ladbrokes today. Some Canadian punters have been backing Hillary as if defeat is out of the question. They came on for some 5/6; We went 8/11 - they hammered that. Now we have laid them the 4/6. I can’t bring myself to go any shorter just yet.
Call The Mounties!
52, Mike, 132 American watchers just went…..Dang, that just aint right!
Boris is now a comfortable favourite! Do the Sundays have some dirt on Ken?
I see betfair has matched twice as much of the Russian presidential election as on…
the Maltese general election. Not exactly big bucks!
Where is a Bookie with odds? Any annswer for 36
When Ken was beating Boris 45%-44% at the end of 2007 the Betfair price was 0.53/1.
Now Boris is beating Ken 44%-39% he is at 0.95/1.
I think that we are just seeing delayed reaction to the polls. I’m pleased - I got on quite a bit this week at 1.25-1.32/1
I got street polled on friday morning whilst in the q for the cashpoint. Two women next to me got asked and both said vote Bojo and when asked why they both said corruption.
I seem to remember PtP and I debating the effect of the ES. Seems I was right.
It was the ES wot won it!
53 Your perception of my being economically centre-left and socially authoritarian is spot on!! I have noticed talking to students in a town centre pub (Bournemouth) that amongst 18-24 year olds,DC has strong appeal -I am 37,and it is,without grinding an axe politically the case that a large chunk of 35-50 year olds have been lost forever to the Tories,thus hindering their return to office.FWIW,I foresee a larger than average swing to the Tories amongst 18-24 year-olds at the next G£.with a much smaller (if at all) swing amongst 35-44 year olds-time will tell
Just a rumour but I heard second hand that there’s an attack biography on Livingstone ready to roll so maybe one of the Sundays have it. I’m not a betting man, and my source may be duff, but perhaps it’s worth buying Johnson before the first editions are out a 8.
62 - Nick, that answers my question at 56. I wonder if the clever money has already acted on this.
re 164 previous thread.The figures point to a hung parliament are likley on average to do so until the next election.
The most likely scenario is for the Tories to have the highest share of vote,about the highest number of seats.So we may have the Tories calling for electoral reform!!
rogerh
41. Brown’s brownshirt posturing is very puzzling. Blair went for Tory votes, but he was intelligent enough to go for middle of the road Conservative voters.
Brown appears to believe that all Tory voters conform to some kind of extreme Colonel Mustard-style caricature, and you have to pose as a latter day Mussolini to win their support.
Can he really be so utterly clueless?
59 Can you give odds for Paddick making 2nd round/Ken not however nutty it seems. As for Paddick then winning well in that hyopethetical well yes he should..but I wonder how many first choice Labour core voters either A)Don’t 2nd preference they only want Labour or what’s the point or b)Vote SWP/Respect/BNP etc as their protest 2nd choice. A BJ v BP final should see Paddick win but I wouldn’t say its a hundred per cent certainty
53 - Triangulation is, and was, a red herring. You don’t create good government by shifting a bit towards someone else. You might get their voters for a short while but at what cost?
Principles, soundly and competently applied, are what create effective government. A decent politician makes you follow them despite any differences, not because they start to be more like you.
54) Shadsy - what’s your email? Can fill you in on the Canadians if that helps..
A new and very different video from the Clinton campaign
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/01/jack-nicholson-films-ad-f_n_89342.html
Put your money on Paddick, eh?
O/T Remember when Hillary was the prohibitive favourite for the nomination? It was her inevitability followed by a stumble in Iowa that turned the tables.
If she wins Ohio and Rhode Island, and decides not to quit, what happens? I can’t see Gore/Dean/Pelosi persuading her to quit if she doesn’t want to. And so it goes to Pennsylvania in six weeks.
By Pennsylvania (which she can win, given the polls at least, and that no state seems to want to end this), everyone’s been talking about Obama as the near-certain nominee at least two months (22nd Feb - 22nd April), and yet she’s still there, and has won another big state. He’s ahead in delegates, but she’s not too far behind, and he’s been the front runner since Super Tuesday without finishing her off. What happens then?
Obama’s momentum peaks on Tuesday, because everything that follows is drawn out over months. He has no primaries to deliver the coupe de grace. The longer she lasts, and the longer his irresistable momentum fails to be irresistable to all, the less likely he looks like the cert we all think he is.
I’ve been ridiculing the ‘buyer’s remorse’ nonsense from Mark Penn (I thought whoever said about the Knight in Monty Python was spot on, and very funny!), but then impact is sinking in - she just refuses to quit. And does that for 6 weeks until Pennsylvania, and the Obama campaign cannot strike a killer blow for all that time … then 5/1 or better for the nomination starts to look pretty good to me
61 IIRC from polls I looked at over last year or so Labour has remained ahead in 25-35, 35-45 or 35-55 age groups (remember that in first polls with Cameron leads it was only the 55+ that took him ahead). Recently as you say he’s been doing better in the youngest and in 45 plus but Labour remains close if not ahead in 25-45. Agree with you it’s probably 30-50 generation. Curiously enough the generation that the new Tory leadership is drawn from is that most fortified against the Conservative message.
69 - Seeing Nicholson appear at the end I think he’s far scarier now as himself than he ever was as the Joker.
Much better from Clinton but too late and celebrity endorsements have a negligible effect. Surely this isn’t a TV ad, it’s over a minute long, is it for the net only?
61.Patrick, we all know that the 18-24 age group is the least likely to vote. But equally interesting is the fact that despite that, they are a good indicator of whether there is a real mood for change.
Both Thatcher and Blair were able to motivate them, and just look at how Obama has tapped into that age group.
If a leader can increase the percentage of young people voting or getting involved in politics, then you can bet the chances are that there is a bigger swing happening further up the age groups. The libdems have benefited from that age group in some constituencies both in the ballot box and on the ground campaigning.
70 I might the same way you would a Foinavon. I just think there’s such a push against Ken that if there a US style October surprise there is no other beneficiary. I can’t see it, and the odds would have to be very attractive to even put a small amount up.
71 Detailed report later..
Morus - under your scenario Obama has clear delegate advantage. Too late for the buyers to have remorse. Supers are and will continue to break for Obama - its over - no oppy for HRC to catch.
69 I know the Civil War was over a while back but does The Battle Hymn of the Republic go down well among Texans? Obviously OK in Iowa.
73 - yes Paul, I think this would be for the internet only.
71 -
Yes she is too far behind, she needs 65% of the votes or more. Look at the figures.
Her getting the delegates from Michigan and Florida isn’t going to happen (Pelosi and Dean will not allow it, probably the will split them according to the national split).
Her changing the rules on Texas isn’t going to happen.
Her getting a majority of superdelegates having lost the popular contest isn’t going to happen.
If she doesn’t make a decent job of closing the gap on Tuesday she will come under intense and unrelenting pressure for nearly two months to bow out. If she doesn’t do so then the press and the democrat hierarchy will take her to the cleaners.
75 Foinavon won the National against odds of 100/1,in 1967?
(FWIW,I backed Red Maruader at 33/1 in 2001-pity I only put £1 on
74 I feel it would be reasonable at this stage to use the US term ‘toss-up’ (too close to call) re the next General Election in the UK
68. Political Capital. Can you tell the rest of us, or at least advise me whether I need to lay off my Obama Ohio bet?
65
I have never seen anyone so clumsy,I suppose the groupies around Brown are too frightened to tell him how ridiculous it looks.
Is it fair to call a change in the 18-24 vote a swing? After all, at successive general elections were are talking about an almost completely different set of people.
This age group is volatile in terms of vote share anyway, as turnout is tiny ([perhaps 30% or less last time), and getting a few votes out for party X or Y can have a big effect.
Scary thought - some of those who move onto secondary school this autumn have only ever lived under a Labour government. How time flies!
To add to the figures that should be heeded.
Obama is currently 155 delegates ahead, 371 are up for grans on Tuesday. To get ahead Clinton would need 263 to Obama’s 108, not going to happen.
If she can somehow squeeze another 50 extra delegates on Tuesday (and it’s against anything all the polls are telling us), getting 211 to Obama’s 160, then where does that leave her?
There will be Wyoming and Mississippi in the week after, neither of which she looks likely to win, maybe putting that back to a 110 lead if Obama only takes them 25 to 20 (unlikely but let’s go with it).
That leaves PA and later. 566 left to win, a 110 gap, 338 delegates needed against 228 for Obama, a 60/40 split. That’s Clinton’s best scenario and even that looks to be a forlorn hope.
76 and 79 - I know she’s too far behind. I know she should quit. We all know that. But if she doesn’t, Obama will begin to fade - you cannot be the irresistable, prohibitive, cannot-lose guy for more than 3 months without killing off your opponent. If you don’t kill them off, you no longer look prohibitive.
So the question is - if Hillary wins only Ohio and Rhode Island, will she quit before Pennsylvania? I don’t think she will. And I don’t think the Democrat hierarchy can force her, unless maybe Dean Gore and Pelosi hold a joint press conference endorsing Obama. Don’t forget that a lot of party elders have stayed on her coattails. Spitzer, Rendell, Strickland, Vilsack, Wes Clarke - not to mention Bill - they will fight for her. Both she and Obama are bigger than the party - I think she can resist, and you know all her consultants will be telling her to just hold on to PA.
No-one wants to be the person to end this - not Gore, not Dean, not Pelosi, no-one. They could have finished it on Super Tuesday, they could have finished it when he had won 11 in a row, they could finish it on Wednesday, but no-one does. No-one has the guts to finish her chances, because no-one ever quite believes it would be enough to finish her off, and God help them then.
I hope she gives up on Wednesday morning, but I have a horrible feeling …
80 Yes. My collective feeling though is Paddick can probably look forward in due course to a long career as a Lib Dem MP. If he gets enough momentum off the Mayoral campaign a Streatham or similar could be ideal for him
86 Clarke has not flip flopped but he’s hardly been in the trenches for her lately. Look forward to your reports from the Taffia
wesley clark is not a democrat party elder, if that’s the best support hilary has got then that says it all.
86 Look Morus, she has as much chance of beating him as Wales do of beating England at rugby.
‘Ere, ‘ang on…
I have no idea if it’s going to be Boris or Ken, but isn’t it true that turnout is key - and probably the only way for Ken to motivate his former voters is for them to think that Boris is about to do it (the way that the post-Iraq Blair in 2005 was desperate for people to think the election was a close race). So Ken will be hoping for “Boris on the verge of victory” headlines - but one week before polling, not now I imagine.
87 - “My collective feeling though is Paddick can probably look forward in due course to a long career as a Lib Dem MP”
Looks very likely. Susan Kramer is now an MP by the same route.
91 - “Ken will be hoping for “Boris on the verge of victory” headlines”"
True, but it might also extra motivate people who want to get rid of Ken to vote for Boris rather than someone else.
89 - I was using party elder in a pretty broad sense - he’s the 4th favourite to be Dem VP nominee, even with Obama’s apparently insurmountable lead. 4 years ago, he was briefly the favourite for the nomination (Gephart was 2nd, Dean 3rd!!). That counts.
I just wonder who will actually wield the knife.
52. Mike-i laughed out loud and couldn’t agree with you more. Get back on the fags Patrick!
73. UK Paul. I don’t know whether you’ve seen Jack’s latest -’The Bucket List’-but you’re so right. Watching that wonderful medlee including the unforgettable ‘Chinatown’ you just wanted to say JACK WHY???? It’s garbage and how he looks at the end is how he looks in the film.
93 Fair point but I reckon there are more apathetic, fed-up-with-Ken-but-really-don’t-want-Boris potential voters than there are apathetic pro-Johnson types. On the basis of no evidence at all, of course.
91 I doubt if there are that many Londoners who are *afraid* of Boris winning, and as MB says, it may motivate people to come out to vote for him.
I delivered 400 leaflets for him in Stanmore this morning.
84.”Scary thought - some of those who move onto secondary school this autumn have only ever lived under a Labour government. How time flies!”
That’s a very relevant point. I still remember the mood change back in the late 70’s among 14-18 age group at my school. We had a modern studies/history teacher (union rep and out and out Labour supporter) who could not believe it when the whole class (Highland comprehensive at that) voted unanimously for Mrs Thatcher and the Conservatives. Some might find that hard to believe now in 2008.
97 Not afraid as in Night of the Living Dead. Afraid as in, that floppy-haired funny bloke off Have I Got News For You, mayor? Eton Tory toff from Henley, mayor? (etc etc) I don’t know. I made money backing Ken the last two times, but this one feels too unpredictable.
92 Although her career may be brought down by Goldsmith. Far from certain. But I rate that as a true toss up in that trendy seat. If Paddick got entrenched in a Streatham though I think like Hughes he would be there decades should he wish i think
100. Only Cable has a hope of holding on in SW London next time. The others are all toast.
82) stjohn. Storm in a teacup. I haven’t changed my Ohio position backing Obama - think the polls running into Monday will improve daily for Obama (eg currently 45/45 @ Zogby and 45/43 at Rasmussen). Correct price is 1.9 Obama or less.
102 I agree. And Clinton virtually never out-performs her last few days’ poll ratings (yes, yes, New Hampshire..) If she’s come down to 45-47, and maybe more to fall, I don’t see her getting 50.
102. Thanks for that PC. My take on it is that he is possibly a good thing for Ohio. I’ve had some 9/4 and some 11/10. I won’t have any more for now but I won’t lay off either.
On thread. I backed Boris at 15/8 when Mike first put him up as a value bet. I didn’t take advantage of the good odds available in the last few days but I’ve had a bit more on at Evens this evening following Nick Cohen’s post at 62. I haven’t had any money on Ken thankfully. A few months ago he looked a good thing too.
Re the Villa. Winning 0-1 with 5 secs to go against Arsenal! Just wait ’til I see that Martin O’Neill.
Just swanking as usual, Gollop (01) - That’s all you Tories are capable of. Not even ROT.
At least Sean Fear goes out delivering 400 leaflets in Stanmore - quite impressive. So his opinions ought to carry a bit more weight.
I was out on the knocker today in a Tory-Lib Dem marginal - must admit I was surprised by how disenchanted the Tory voters seemed to be. No sign of the walkover all you Tories are expecting.
Blears allegedly said of Boris“He’s a nasty, right-wing elitist, with odious views and criminal friends like Conrad Black.”
Meanwhile in response to Lord Mancroft daring to tell parliament about his unpleasant hospital experiences the Mail reports that “Health minister Ann Keen said: “I am appalled at his comments and I’m sure the rest of the British public is too. “The entire country holds nurses in the highest regard.”
This seems to me to be class-war-chip-on-the-shoulder stalinist bile and I think that it will ensure that Labour lose the next election. The british public are sick to death of people who run the country incompentently but viciously attack anyone who dares to point out that the emperor has no clothes.
More fool Cameron for not backing Lord Mancroft. It is poor judgement like this that will make the difference between getting a working majority and a Callaghan majority for him.
The public sector is now so bloated and inefficient that any sensible government will now be able to pay for tax cuts by making massive cuts in public sector spending, simply by eliminating quangos, targets, target monitors, guardianista non jobs and the layers of highly paid middle management that no longer exist in the private sector, while simultaneously inreasing funding to the front line services.
It is high time some of our politicans got outside Zone 1 a little more.
I think the problem with the Mayoral race is that Ken has made himselves in the eyes of many look invincible.
Again the feeling whilst canvassing in the outer london boroughs is almost universally anti Ken but when you ask those same people who they think will win the answer still comes back Ken.
Therefore you are likely to get a highly motivated vote out in the outer London Boroughs this time which in turn would spell curtains for Ken
Streatham has already an excellent and active Lib dem candidate in Chris Nicholson and Labour are struggling between council leader steve read and chukka umanna. Paddick will go to nomination as working peer surely. He will in my opinion not quite make second place though this could change .regular Labour voters on housing estates could be deciding factor and not impressed by statements on housing issues.Paddick relates to older,vulnerable and disabled who usually vote and dpends on next few weeks long shot but would get great odds
“I think the problem with the Mayoral race is that Ken has made himselves in the eyes of many look invincible.”
Another link to the Clinton playbook.
104 Just wait ’til I see that Martin O’Neill.
stjohn - you mean in just a couple of hours time?
100-I am a Tory and i dont necessarily agree with that view.
Sutton and Chean and Carshalton and Wallington will be close once again even with a swing to the Conservatives.
Ed Davey will also hold on.
95 Roger,whilst I appreciate your doubting my sanity for even contemplating voting Tory,I am NOT going to start smoking again.
A few facts:
(a)22-23% smoked in mid 2006-doubtless the nationwide public enclosed spaces ban will have induced many to throw in the towel-I would hazard a guess its aleady down to between 21 and 22%,and <20% will smoke by the end of 2009
(b)I feel better,more alive-my sense of smell,taste has improved-I confess to being somewhat emotionally unstable,long-term,and I am certainly ‘getting off’ on the nicotine chewing gum-but what the heck?
(c)These days,smokers are becoming social lepers-you see little groups huddled outside a pub,an office-I confess to taking a certain sadisitic pleasure-’Aw,poor little smokers:lol:’
(d)I was coughing,hacking like a 60 year-old as a smoker,,and for years and years it had been a crap habit that I kept going without thinking about ‘Why?’
(e)I do remember being ina segregated pub in 2006,before the ban-subliminally,I envied the non-smokers-for want of a better phrase,they seemed ‘a slightly quieter,more refined clientele’-I know that sounds very snobby
(f)I accept anyone’s right to smoke-one of my lodgers smokes-he does not stand under my nose and smoke,so I accept his right to smoke-I’m not one of these ferocious ‘born-again-non-smokers’,who can be the most self-righteous,indignant about smoking
(g)With my history of anxiety na ddepression,I never thought I could quit-data shows people with mental health issues are far more likely to smoke,so I could be forgiven for feeling pleased with myself
(h)Onwards and upwards!If anyone wants to talk about quitting on here,I would happily talk/listen/advise
106. Politcal genius. Cameron MUST come out in support of Lord Mancroft. I sense a real anti-nurse groundswell. There is a HUGE constituency here without representation.
Updated spreadsheet, including latest superdelegate counts…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Democrats.xls
11 Agree what. You think easy Kramer win
106,There is a story about this ib todays ‘Daily Mail’;Lord Mancroft was frankly very rude indeed about a very valauble group in society.Using phrases like ‘Stalinist’ and ‘chip on shoulder’ does NOT help the Tory cause one iota;a good few ’swing voters’ would take that language as deeply offensive-and NOT vote Tory
115 for +111+
108 So did Norwich South but they knocked that PPC away. Peer.. Be your waste to take a Westminster seat I feel
113. I think the groundswell is anti chavette not anti nurse. A chavette in a nurses uniform is still a chavette.
This is most noticeable in the private sector. When I started work 20 years ago, young people were eagerly taken on and over 50s struggled to get another job at all if they lost one.
Now it is the other way round, employers are reluctant to take on school leavers owing to lack of social skills, basic academic skills such as English grammar and in particula lack of ability to take the rough with the smooth, while over 65s increasingly feature in the workplace.
That said Cameron would have done well to look at todays newspapers online before he opened his mouth and see the comment columns on the article reporting Lord Mancroft in those newspapers that allow comments on articles, as he would discover that they overwhelmingly support Lord Mancroft and many tell similar tales from personal experience.
116 - I used the stalinist etc. phrase to describe the bilious attacks on people who dare to tell the truth that are so commonplace on the left - not Lord Mancroft.
Patrick. I was on 40 a day and stopped on New Years Eve 2003. I agree with all you say about feeling better and less anti-social and for me it wasn’t even as difficult as I thought it would be. The only depressing thing is that even now over four years later the urge for a smoke is still there. Not every day or even once a week but sometimes you just can’t imagine anything you’d rather be doing.
St John. I wouldn’t bet too much against Ken. This election is much less predictable than people think. I don’t think it’s an easy one for pollsters. Boris could well win but underestimating Ken is a big mistake.
116 My experience in Hospital certainly changed my view of nurses - some of them were extremely poor at their job, most average, some were incredibly good. Lack of basic nursing care nearly killed me - no ward nurse noticed I was close dying of pneumonia despite checking my vital signs every couple of hours. Luckily a friend from Bournemouth walked in, saw me and demanded action. ICU staff were great.
120. Roger. Point taken.
110. Peter. Yes just off to the party now. Allowing for Martin to have a shower, change into his party clothes and travel up the motorway he may not make it dead on 8pm but we’ll see.
Following the observations above about the different patterns of voting intentions in the age groups, the most recent Yougov table I could find shows this picture.
14/15 Feb 2008 S Times
18-34 35-54 55+
Conservative 40 37 47
Labour 36 35 25
Lib Dem 18 15 14
Other 7 13 13
If this is compared to the Yougov early May 2005 Telegraph poll the changes are (positive = good). This Yougov breakdown understated the Conservative actual GE figure by 2 and overstated Labour by 1 and the Lib Dems by 1.
Difference Vs 05 18-34 35-54 55+
Conservative 13 10 9
Labour -1 -8 -7
Lib Dem -13 -8 -9
Other 1 6 6
The rate of change compared to 2005 shows some significant shifts with the Conservatives growth of 48% largest in the 18-34, Labour losing little of that share but the Lib Dems suffering a 42% decline in that age group.
Rate of Change 18-34 35-54 55+
Conservative 48% 37% 24%
Labour -3% -19% -22%
Lib Dem -42% -35% -39%
Other 17% 86% 86%
Looked at this way the changes in the polls are very large and remarkable.
Paul Bedfordshire. The Hereditary peer lord Mancroft might well have been attended to by nurses with dirty fingernails and bad hair who were too promiscuous for his and your taste but as he’s only likely to have been seen by two or three nurses drawing the conclusions he did is idiotic.
My experiences with nurses have all been positive and I’ve been attended to by quite a few over the last few years. Next time the Good Lord is admitted to hospital it’s as well for him that the nurses don’t choose to treat him as he has treated them or we might have one less Hereditary Tory Peer.
124, You seem to have skipped over what exactly it was that he said, Roger.
Would you be kind enough to repeat it.
124: Of the hospitals I’ve been a visitor or patient at in the last few years, two were good, the Horton in Banbury, and the Churchill in Oxford, and two were mediocre Worcester, and the JR in Oxford, and one Barnet Chase was ghastly.
Perhaps the good lord just went to the wrong hospital.
112 Patrick
Keep going.
Of all the benefits you listed, health is the big one. It’s not just that you’re more likely to avoid major terminal diseases, you will simply feel better.
I kicked it when I was about your age and now aged 102 I can really see how much good I did myself.
Unfortunately, what Roger (120) says is also true. It’s years before you stop fancying one. That’s the addiction. Takes about five years for the poison to completely clear the system. After that, you never want another.
Tried one once a few years back just to remind myself of what I was missing. It tasted disgusting.
124 Roger you might also review the readers comments on articles reporting this in the online versions of The Times THe Telegraph and The Daily Mail which report countless personal experiences similar to that experienced by Lorn Manford.
If even members of parliament cannot truthfully report their personal experiences of public services to the body that ultimately controls those services (Parliament) then we are further along the road to disctatorship than I thought.
The Canadians forced us to scrub out the 4/6 and chalk up 8/13. Now they’ve taken that. PC, If you’ve got PtP’s email, maybe you could get mine from him.
106
That’s the Ann Keen who together with her husband (who is also an MP) have together pocketed £175,000 so far for their second home,both their constituencies being 10 miles from the House of Commons.
Now that’s what I call appalling behaviour.
Back to Labour Spring Conference - almost every report I’ve read today references the improvement bin Gordon’s speech against the very poor one he gave in September 07. Googled a bit and the same reporters/commentators at the time didn’t seem report it as abysmal, poor, bad. Odd how memories change isn’t it. Was fun googling though and seeing Jackie Ashley crowing about “Gordon’s women”, Derek Draper on the “Brown Tories” etc. The past really is another country.
Best line though was in Martin Kettle’s review of Brown’s Conference Speech “As a piece of positioning, there was little to fault. As ever, one is in awe of Brown’s mastery of the political game.”
the awe was gone a couple of weeks later…
126. Ralph. I think the point you make is right. Obviously there are good and bad as there are everywhere. Nurses though are different because just joining the profession involves some desire to help their fellow human beings. Something not always associated with Hereditary Tory Peers.
As it happens while in a high dependancy unit last year I saw nurses round the clock treat people and bath people who were in such a bad way that I found it difficult to even look at them. These nurses were extraordinary and I found the whole experience humbling
Mancroft is apparently a former heroin addict so he probably knows a bit about low life.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3462808.ece
116 Patrick - If you’re reading the Daily Mail on a regular basis then perhaps you’re closer to becoming a Tory voter than you realise!
If Lord Mancroft used rather undiplomatic language, surely nurses as a group shouldn’t automatically be excluded from any criticism. In my own experience, having been a regular hospital visitor over the past 2-3 years, I never cease to be surprised by just how many nurses appear to be on duty at any one time. This is something I have witnessed in a number of different wards and in different hospitals I have visited, often in groups of 5 or 6 just chatting away to each other around their central station. Not their fault of course, if they’ve nothing to do, but I can’t help wondering whether there has been a significant over-recruitment for political purposes, or perhaps it’s a case of rank bad management.
121.”Lack of basic nursing care nearly killed me - no ward nurse noticed I was close dying of pneumonia”
Sorry to hear that Ted. As in any job, good competent management produces results. If the ward Sister is a good *nursing* manager then you can bet that everyone working in that ward from the resident doctor, nurses to the cleaners raises their game and pushes up the standard of care given.
My dad was admitted to hospital a couple years ago and his care was so bad that I was nearly in tears with anger and distress, as a former nurse I could see the poor management and lack of pride in every corner of that ward and we could not get dad home quick enough.
Not long after he suddenly became seriously ill and the GP wish to admit him to hospital by ambulance as an emergency, it took a couple hours to finally persuade him to go back to that hospital. A different ward and nursing team led by a superb Sister meant that his time in hospital was a completely different experience. The whole ward team were quite simple, fantastic.
As I recorded earlier Brown’s speech was good - at least the content. There was a coherency of ideas that start to underpin the proposition that Labour should have a fourth term.
Maybe Gord will come out of the difficult last four months stronger and more purposeful.
I do think there’s a tendency for Tories to underestimate Gord - exceeded only by the tendency of Labour people to underestimate Dave. Both have seriously good qualities - both have deficiencies.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before
London mayor Ken Livingstone has gone out of his way to court the Muslim community, so it came as something of a surprise when his old friends at the Evening Standard recounted a joke told by the future mayor to Alex Needham of the now defunct The Face magazine back in 2000.
This is it: “Salman Rushdie was on a train and it pulled into a station. He saw Yasser Arafat and his entourage of bodyguards and was so overcome with the emotion of seeing his great hero, he raced to embrace him.
“But the bodyguards weren’t very well versed in modern literature and had no idea who he was. So they shot him dead, thus proving the value of that old adage: never go for a Shi’ite while the train is in the station.”
We wonder what Ken’s Muslim fans will make of the quip. Or indeed what Boris Johnson (who has both Jewish and Muslim ancestors) might think.
One small practical detail: Arafat was not a Shi’ite, so if Livingstone is minded to repeat the joke during the current campaign, he might wish to substitute Arafat for a senior Hizbollah figure, or perhaps an Iranian politician.
My experiences with nurses has been positive. It is true that many are promiscuous and dirty - but i have no complaints.
My experiences of hosties has also been positive - not so much BA but I cannot fault Virgin Atlantic.
7.
“”Blears on Boris
“He’s a nasty, right-wing elitist, with odious views and criminal friends”
Sure that wasn’t Blears on Blair?
101.
“The others are all toast.”
Looking at the recent by-election in Sutton with the Lib Dems improving in a Tory stronghold, this suggests the Conservatives are stale mouldy soggy bread?
133 He has also devoted a lot of time and attention to helping addicts
what he said should not surprise anyone - however, if he had a complaint about his treatment did he raise it at the time. Did he comment to the nurses in question that he was uncomfortable listening to their chatter?
having spent a whole day this week in a hospital I found the nurses very caring and helpful. I also found them to be quite slow moving, less than parade ground neat and very often stuck politely listening to the droning boring tales of lonely old people. They were, in other words, just like most british people - kind, slightly lazy, polite and much more capable and effective than a quick glance would suggest. Gawd bless em!
132. I can’t imagine you being humble under any circumstances Roger.
“My experiences with nurses has been positive. It is true that many are promiscuous and dirty - but i have no complaints”
A classic of it’s kind Bolted Horse!!
136 Agree we shouldn’t under-estimate Brown but while the content was, if uninspiring, coherent and looked forward it was still really the same content as in 1997. Excellence in education (Education, Education, Education) after 12 years in power? (not forgetting that if he was interested in his constituents education he should be an MSP. Same for much of the other ideas.
The latest re-brand seems to be to try to get back to Not Flash, just Gordon.
Also noted a major push by Labour to downplay May elections - in hope that if they build expectation of disaster they may be able to get away with last years spin again (not as bad as we expected, Conservatives failed to get a breakthrough)
144 - Labour will spin that they are losing fewer seats than in past years.
Not hard given that
a) very few seats are up for election this year
b) Labour start from a pretty low base this time
112 Patrick - I agree with much of what you say about quitting smoking. In my own case, Monday marks an important anniversary, it will then be precisely 6 months since I gave up at 2.30pm on 3 September. In fact, feeling virtuous about this carried me through the first month or so (without any patches, chewing gum, etc.) and the toughest time for me at least was around where you are now, but do keep it up - it’s well worth it.
I do agree with Roger though, I do still have the odd really strong urge, usually in the evening or perhaps when I find myself say walking behind someone just lighting up - although the places where smoking is now allowed are so restricted, this happens only very seldom.
30 - Ted
If it required any skills whatsoever besides politics Ken couldn’t have done it.
I disagree: the post of Mayor of London probably requires more executive ability than any other post in the country held by an elected politician. To look at your examples:
From what I can gather he’s responsible directly for planning, housing & transport so it’s a jumped up District Council
Rather different, IMO. Planning powers of the GLA usually cover strategic issues that, for England outside London, are dealt with by Whitehall rather than the relevant councils, and can make a considerable difference - such as the affordable housing targets. Transport is also a considerable task, given the considerable functions and reach of TfL. There’s a lot of direct Mayoral input involved. The LDA is another considerable agency whose equivalents are under Whitehall control in the res of the country - and it has a major responsibility for controlling the flow of government regeneration in the conurbation (as well as providing several lucrative fingers in the pie for organisations the Mayor approves of). His enviro strategies must be followed by the boroughs, who can be hamstrung by the Mayor in various ways (as the controversy over Freedom Passes demonstrates).
He’s also gaining more powers over waste disposal and the Learning and Skills Councils, although less than he originally wanted.
147 The other strong motivational factor in quitting smoking is of course the cost saving, something we former lepers chose to ignore at the time, but which we are now only too happy to pride ourselves on. As a 20 per day man after 181 days’ abstinence, my saving is already about £1000, of which £800 is tax.
Football:
Man U won the title today.
Arsenal got out of jail at home as they always do but they will come second.
Keegan = HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. I think most football fans would enjoy seeing Newcastle have a good solid time in the second tier. They and their supporters are not the lovely cuddly people which is so often portrayed.
Politics
Sadly Ken will win but only just.
USA - Clinton will be the Dem candidate and will be well beaten. The last time a presidential vote took place on 4 Nov was in 1980 and the scale of the victory for Rep will be similar this time.
SPECIAL APPEAL
A swarm of rogue Canadian punters have descended upon Ladbrokes and heavily backed Clinton to win Ohio. Despite dropping her price to a dismal 8/13 they keep on coming, with the result that Ladbrokes is under the severest pressure and our own Shadsy, in charge of the market there, is in danger of being overwhelmed.
Kindly do what you can to assist this philanthropic organisation, and the beleaguered Shads, by emptying out your piggy banks and backing Obama at the now exceptionally generous price of 6/5.
Thank you.
147-He is only in charge of planning housing and transport because that is what he has stolen back from local authorities to the centre.It is not as though he has been parachuted into the job.Ken has been able