Sean Fear’s Friday Slot…..on Sunday!!
March 2nd, 2008
What Will London Tell Us About the Next General Election?
Mike Smithson has written several excellent articles about the London Mayoralty this week, and I do not propose to add to them directly. My intention is to explore what the outcome will tell us about the next general election. Electoral history over the past 40 years suggests that the outcome of the London Mayoralty will be a good pointer to the outcome of the next election.
London is politically volatile. It contains areas of great strength for all of the main political parties, but at the same time, has a rapidly changing population that cannot be taken for granted by any of them, and is prepared to switch between them.
In 1988, Labour organised a conference entitled “Can Labour Win London?” which prompted Terry Colman to comment that “Labour had left no stone unturned in its determination to lose London” during the 1980s. Yet, Conservative dominance vanished within a few years, and in 1997, Labour won 57 seats to just 11 for the Conservatives in the Capital. This produced just as much hand-wringing on the Right, as many commentators concluded that London’s multi-racial population and supposed social liberalism meant that it was now safe for Labour. London is safe for nobody, as Labour discovered in 2005, when the party lost 11 seats.
London’s local elections have proved a useful lead indicator of future general election performance. Landslide victories in the GLC election of 1967, and the Borough elections of 1968, pointed the way to the Conservative victory in the 1970 general election. Massive gains for Labour in the Borough elections of 1971 and the GLC election of 1973 were followed by their election victory in 1974. Once again, the Conservatives pulled off a landslide victory in the 1977 GLC election, and a strong performance in the Boroughs in 1978. The party duly won the 1979 election. In 1982, the Conservatives easily retained their dominance in the Borough elections, and this was duly followed by their landslide victory in 1983. A surprisingly good Conservative performance in the Boroughs in 1990, presaged their surprising win in 1992. A Labour landslide in the Borough elections of 1994 led to an even stronger performance by the party in 1997. And the 1998 Borough elections, easily won by Labour, foreshadowed the outcome of the 2001 election.
There are occasional exceptions to this rule. Labour narrowly won the GLC in 1981, and had a small lead over the Conservatives, in terms of votes, in the 1986 Borough elections. In both cases, it may be that Labour would have done better to lose, as the behaviour of many of their councillors simply confirmed to floating voters in London that the party was unelectable. Remarkably, London actually swung further to the Conservatives at the 1987 general election, due in no small part to the behaviour of those Labour councils who celebrated their election victories with massive rate increases and invitations to Gerry Adams to come and speak to them.
Recent political history suggest that if the Conservatives win the Mayoralty, and perform well in the Assembly elections, then in all likelihood, they’re heading for victory at the general election. By contrast, if Labour outperform expectations, by winning easily, then the next election may turn out better for them then most people are expecting.
There were five by-elections on Thursday:-
Bromsgrove District - Slideslow: Conservative 372, Independent 317, Labour 304, UKIP 104. Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat. For some reason, the Liberal Democrats did not defend this seat, but backed the Independent. Labour did well, as they did not contest this last time.
Ellesmere Port and Neston Borough - Westminster: Labour 227, Conservative 123, Lib Dem 45. Labour hold.
London Borough of Sutton - Cheam: Conservative 1541, Lib Dem 1454, UKIP 260, Labour 106. Conservative hold. This was one of the Conservatives’ safest seats in the borough, and the near loss is most likely down to the disqualification of the outgoing councilor.
Tynedale District - Hexham Gilesgate: Conservative 178, Lib Dem 96, Labour 60. Conservative hold, with a reduced majority.
Shetland Council: Lerwick South. This was one by Jonathan Wills, one of seven independents who contested this seat.
Sean Fear
[Note This week’s appeared late due to a technical problem]
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OT: Hillary now lead Obama in Ohio by 5.25%. Evidently either the 3am advert or the NAFTA story is having an effect.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/02/clinton-leads-by-525-in-ohio/
Lots of good points, but surely there is one unquantifiable influence - the fact that people might vote for Boris because they’ve seen him on HIGNFY or because their mum fancies him? If he does triumph, it’s surely less of a pro-Conservative indicator than any previous London election?
2. Having met the Bozzmonster, and worked for him, i think even the great Bozzmoolah himself would never claim to be physically a deb’s delight, so I doubt he gets votes coz peoples’ mums fancy him.
He does get more than his fair share of briffit, but I think that is down to charm, wit and celebrity - and money - than matinee idolness.
If he wins London, which Ihope he does, and suspect he might, it will certainly be a big pointer for the following election - as SeanF’s excellent analysis implies.
That’s why people like the venomous munchkin Ms Blears are getting so unpleasant. They are worried.
‘The Tories also outline plans today to redraw electoral boundaries if they get into power, ending what they have long claimed is inbuilt bias - and threatening to lock Labour out of power for a generation. On average, Tory constituencies contain more voters than Labour ones, meaning that Labour can win a majority of seats even if the Tories win more actual votes.’
So what are they planning
Wasn’t there also a Conservative standing in the Shetland election Sean?
It’s odd how little comment Blears and co’s vicious personal attacks on Boris has occasioned. We have all got rather pious on this site about the Clinton machine’s negative onslaught on Obama but the ‘Boris is a racist’, ‘Boris has criminal links’, ‘Boris is an evil, snobby, posh bastard’ stuff from Labour puts that in the shade.
Perhaps people aren’t bothered because it’s so clearly not going to work and may even be counter-productive whereas we all fear that Clinton’s propaganda may damage Obama - not in the primaries but in November.
The reason the Tories are disadvantaged under FPTP is largely turnout-based. Many inner-city seats don’t have overwhelming turnouts but will always go Labour. Whereas the big countryside seats do have large turnouts and always go Tory.
Hence why the Tories can win more votes but not necessarily more seats.
I can understand the frustration but I don’t really see a solution short of merging many inner-city seats together, though this has the risk of creating big city seats that have far more voters than a safe Tory seat. Hence prompting cries of unfairness from the other side.
Off topic (sorry sean) Very surprising result from the IWAR votes.
36% of voters sent forms actually voted.
So why is there a differential turnout in Lab and Con safe seats? Are those in safe Lab seats a lot savvier at sussing out how pointless it is for them to vote in such a safe seat?
3,The Labour attack dogs must be out of their mind to accuse him of being a nasty tory toff,leave that well alone.
If Boris wins as I think he will, it might be a pointer, but not in the way you intend, Livingstone had independent status initially and surprised many by not following the party line.
However agreeing on one of your predictions is a dangerous game.
Last year you said Brown would be in real trouble over the Lisbon treaty with the media in full flow.
However Brown was correct that you and they have and bored us all to death.
Cameron is aware of this, as he knows the anti europeans have nowhere else to go for one election at least, because of their hatred towards Labour.
The anti europeans remind me of Elton John marrying that woman in the eighties, everyone knew how it would end.
A bit like Cameron and the anti europeans.
7 Partially true but Labour seats do generally have far fewer potential electors in them than Tory ones. For instance if Wales were suddenly brought up to England’s average number of voters per constituency the number of MPs sent to Westminster would probably go from 40 to 32
10 - “The anti europeans remind me of Elton John marrying that woman in the eighties, everyone knew how it would end.” A brilliant analogy!
I recall a Radio 1 DJ saying it was surprising as Elton “had never hidden his homosexual potential”.
Rumour has it, in a poll to be released shortly, that Malta Today will anounce that voter identification is 38.5% PN (Naltionalist Party), and 33.1% MLP (Maltese Labour Party), but that the MLP will ‘gain’ 8% of PN voters. This also means a high level of undecideds, and the chance that the AD (Alternative Democracy - like the Greens) could do well, even getting enough of the vote to win seats, which would increase the likelihood of coalition.
Last poll was 9th Feb, and showed MLPs lead ‘narrowing to 2 points’. Not sure how they work these things, but my impression is that it is MLPs to lose, and that they are narrowly in front.
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20080302/local/local-and-international-press-digest
This is the website to watch for (hopefully) a full breakdown of data
http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/commentary/0203.html
Morus any snippets to report
11 You highlight the one obvious anamoly of FPTP at the moment-if northern Labour strongholds have c.50% turnout,southern shire Tory area 75%,then that’s how it is.And in 1951,200,000 more voted Labour than Tory-and in terms of seats the Tories won 321-295-so it can cut the other way
6. There is something about Boris that clearly irritates lefties to the Nth degree. He irritates them so much they can’t see why other people don’t share their antipathy.
Perhaps it is a little like Hillary in reverse. People who like or don’t mind Hillary are often mystified by the degree to which she is hated by the Hillaryhaters. I share their feelings. Sometimes I am mystified by the amount that I dislike Hillary.
But I dislike her. And I am not alone. And nor is this dislike a simple left/right thing. She is loathed by some on the left as well: check Mathhew Norman in today’s indy:
http://tinyurl.com/2nwnk3
Nor is it misogny that underlies this antipathy, for me anyway. I will happily confess I adored Thatch. I have admiration for Kate Hoey. And Gisela Stuart. Oona King. I liked Teresa Gorman, despite her faults. I like smart independent female politicians as much as I like their male equivalents.
But Hillary just… ugh.
So, back on-topic: why do lefties hate Boris QUITE so much? He is clearly not the evil Nazi they claim, so why do they feel the need to say this silly stuff, which they must know is bollox?
Or maybe they really believe it?
Curious.
Latest Malta prices on Betfair are for ‘Most seats’ (out of 65).
MLP Bet: 1.88, Lay: 1.94
PN Bet: 2.04, Lay: 3.7
Other Bet: 100
Only £1,960 matched at present. Shadsy was asking for info yesterday, but I can’t see a Malta market on Ladbrokes yet…
On the Welsh - nothing at all to report Punter - they are administrative mode, and no-one is thinking about politics. Even the Welsh Language Act stuff is bumbling long awithout any fire from the galleries.
Did you get any interesting snippets from your Dydd Gwyl Dewi celebrations?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/7261357.stm
36% voted
87.9% want a referendum 12.1% do not
7.9% want the Treaty approved 88.8% do not
I am surprised with the 36% turn out which does legitimise the poll results.
10. Dez, you’re quite right.
I predicted Brown would be in big, big trouble with the media - and the polls - over the Treaty and I was wrong. I happily confess this was one situation where the wish was sperm-donor to the thought.
I really WANTED Brown to be in trouble so I kind of presumed he would be.
In my defense I never expected the Lib Dems to be quite so devious, idiotic and spineless - if they had backed a referendum he would indeed have been in more of a pickle.
But yes I was wrong.
Anyway I have learned my lesson. I may bang on endlessly about Europe on here, but I am actually glad Cameron does not bang on about it, a la Hague, in the wider world.
Eurosceptics have to wise up. We maybe totally and morally right, and europhiles may be revolting moral insects - and they are - but the only way to stop the europhiles is to win an election and get a sceptic pary into power. To do that the Tories have to remain united, and appear reasonably sane, on Europe and all other issues.
Only when the right gains power will we see finally, after forty long years, a reversal of the euro-ratchet. But until then: mum’s the word*
*not for me, obviously.
16 I’m left of centre and do NOT hate Boris-he is gaffe-prone,can look a right clown,but whilst I shake my head at some of his howlers,I do not bear the guy any real malice
10. But Brown aopologists were also clear that in fact Brown’s strategy was an indication of his ‘brilliant’ political strategy and that the debate in the commons would reopen Conservative fissures, that has also been a failure.
Brown must be happiest, he has effectively got away with lying because the majority are not interested in or dont understand the issue.
21. Well done with the smoking mate. Good choice. Smoking is gay. If you’re gonna do a drug you might as well make it a f***ing proper drug like heroin or methamphetamine. At least those are SERIOUS fun.
Smoking just makes you cough, doesn’t offer any real buzz, costs stupid amounts of money, ruins your teeth and complexion, makes you smell like an ashtray, and then it gives you lung cancer.
Duh.
19. That is a seriously impressive result. And I mean seriously. Just on the turn-out. More than a third of people bothered to vote in a referendum that actually meant nothing politically. And would have no effect in law.
Wow.
We wait for Mike Smithson to press f1 on his keyboard and regurgitate his endless smelly euro-argument: “people don’t care about Europe, the polls show it”.
Fact is: they do care, if given the choice. If we had a proper Constitution referendum I am sure we’d get turnout well over 50%.
But we won’t get one, coz europhiles are big fat lying traitors.
21,
Patrick same here.
I think Boris is a curiosity, and not living in London don`t really care.
However I think some political Londoners believe the result will resonate allover the UK, I am no so sure that is the case.
Nevertheless looking from afar and not been affected I admired Livingstone bringing in the congestion charge.
A real political decision that took some political guts.
O/T (Sorry) What’s happened to Ladbrokes’ 4 State special bets for Tuesday, which they introduced only yesterday - have they given up on these already or has Shadsy just had a lie-in?
Nice article SF and I am waiting for Boris’s price to edge back to evens before backing him,only hope I haven’t missed the boat.
I received an email and it may be of interest to Ptp(or anyone else) if they wish to meet Boris at Walthamstow dog track!!!
If you can’t make campaigning, then you could have a special night out and come to our event with Boris at Walthamstow Dogs on 27 March?
Food, Wine, Gambling and Boris - what more could you ask for £60?
Please don’t answer the question.
13-Don’t Malta sue STV, the fair votes system the LDs always tell us about?
So fair the constitution had to be changed to ensure the most voted party (>50%) actually won more seats?
15, etc-What was the average % of Labour and Conservatives in English seats? This would indicate if th bias is due to different seat sizes or turnout?
6. Probably because the attacks are ineffectual.
19. Very impressive.
Thoughtful analysis SF.
O/T another bit of thoughtful analysis from John Rentoul in the Indy about the Tories:
http://tinyurl.com/2hsx7h
27 - I think that’s true, though there’s so little written on Maltese politics, I’m having trouble really understanding the details. I’m tempted by the better-than-evens on PN - I’m not sure the voters can quite bring themselves to vote MLP into governemnt, given their brief stint in 1996-98 (they suspended Malta’s EU application, which was not popular, as referenda have shown the Maltese in favour of EU membership), and didn’t cover themselves in glory economically.
I suspect that Malta’s inherent Catholic conservatism might prove a bulwark to stem the MLP (read New Labour without Blair) tide. I think Alan Johnson went to endorse the MLP recently…
I don’t know it well enough to say for certain, but the news stories and comment I’ve read makes me think of 1992 in Britain.
25 Still there, under Correct Score
http://www.ladbrokes.com/lbr_sports?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&class_id=110000037&type_id=110000608&ev_sort=&ev_mkt_id=210091646
31 Although Shadsy has dropped the 2-2 draw from 11/4 to 9/4, I still think there’s value there (Obama VT and TX, Clinton OH and RI). Remember the £50 limit though
Ooooh, these nasty attacks on Boris are seriously bad…for labour. They are deeply personal, vicious and only serve to do two things, 1)prevoke sympathy for boris, 2) make labour look bad for doing it. God knows who thought up this strategy, but whoever did needs to be sacked. They’ve let Boris take the front foot now, while they try and smear him, and fail miserably. Trying to attack Boris personally will not work. Ed Balls is god awful at public speaking also, I hope he becomes chancellor, watching him get ripped to shreds by the opposition parties will be fairly entertaining.
29 Had three posts caught in spam trap.
Gist was Gordon thinks winning the Lisbon vote is an end, IMO its a beginning. Read attached for French plans for presidency later this year.
http://www.euractiv.com/en/future-eu/sarkozy-vows-put-politics-back-europe/article-170218
“Europe” as a project has been on hold for while Constitution/Treaty has been held up, now the brakes are off and the train will be on its way. Brown is in the European trap now and he hasn’t planned for it.
Sorry not 29 should have been SeanT at 23
I know I’m really gonna hate my self for this: seant any comments on Mr Bercow?
http://tinyurl.com/3xk4mm
36. This fish ain’t gonna rise to the fly. Its suppertime here on soi 6, and there’s a chicken panang with my name on it.
Sawadee!!
National Party has a small lead in Malta
http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/2008/02/24/t2.html
Please note the the impossible has happened, seant wouldn’t comment.
Do I get a prize Mike?
38 - Thanks for that Mark - that’s only from last week, as well, which confirms that PN is a better shout than MLP on Betfair.
I think the most telling numbers are those who want Gonzi rather than Sant - by 46% to 39%.
However, the numbers do not appear to be weighted - this set of respondants voted 3-2 PN over MLP in 2003, whereas the election was about 52%-48%, so PN 2003 voters are oversampled here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Malta is the result from 2003, and this is where I think they will release today’s poll:
http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/commentary/0203.html
41 Morus. Only really that the Vale seems on strong ground for the Tories at present. Seems they feel the Council grab away from them is working to their favour and they seem increasingly confident. Caveat they seemed the same last May and Hutt just held. But I think they’re on firmer ground now. And the Lib Dems well they’re acting as if they’ve already got that Cardiff majority.. Labour feel that at least PC look like getting nowhere in the Valleys
19. Watching the Government Minister, MP for Harlow on The Politics Show, with his 97 majority reducing at about 5 votes a second, by the end of the discussion, he simply lost it. The poor bloke needs to get himself another career pretty quickly because he is on his way out.
The campaign for a referendum was only able to access the modified electoral role, with about 50% of the voters on it. The Role was always supposed to be accesible for the purposes of political canvassing, maybe that is specifically linked to an official candidature in the local area.
Anyway, such a high turnout, from something that recieved no direct party backing. Noone going door to door to make sure all the votes get out, or pledge lists etc…
An incredible result…
31 Morus - Thanks for the link to Ladbrokes “Correct Score”. Sadly they’ve hammered down the price on a 2-2 draw from 11-4 to 9-4 overnight, so not much value left there.
I dislike the attitude MPs take towards referendums. Allegedly they erode representative democracy. Well, I’m all for that considering the sleaze we’ve had recently.
I do not feel the UK should turn into Switzerland - there is a need for a Parliament and Executive with power. But in *strong* circumstances where there is clearly a national *mood* to be consulted, I believe we should be allowed referenda. I don’t believe the argument that the wheels would come off. I think the government would be quite surprised what people would vote *for*, to be honest. Trident would most certainly have been replaced had it gone to a popular vote. I think Top Up Fees would probably have succeeded too. As would the hunting ban.
Any referenda would require a helluva lot of signatories and come under clearly prescribed statutory rules. We wouldn’t be getting referenda on things such as forcing the PMs kid to be called Spiderman or anything like that.
I also think there’s a good argument that MPs should be able to be recalled and a by-election precipitated if enough constitutency voters agree.
Returning back to the Jersey scandal.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=523706&in_page_id=1770
Police declared there was no ring involved without any investigation, how do they know? Jersey education officials have worked at the home, what did they know? I read also that having a conviction as peadaphile is not an obstacle to becoming a policeman and getting promotion.
Then the journalist in the link mentioned a connection to the Islington scandal - where the minister Margaret Hodge, then council leader, denounced her as Right-wing “gutter journalists” who supposedly bribed children to lie. Why did she make such a statement?
This affair has shown Jersey to have a rotten political, legal and law enforcement system. Now we see the tentacles spread further.
Was a British minister really involved in suppressing allegations?
1.
“the 3am advert …..is having an effect.”
It’s three on the morning.
Hilary awakes, rolls over and finds a cold empty bed.
She gets up and calls down the White House stairs:
“Bill!!! What’s that sucking sound?!?!?”
46.
“Police declared there was no ring involved without any investigation, how do they know?”
The same way that Tony Blair knew that there was… ahem….. no conspiracy to deceive the British public over the decision to go to war in Iraq without an honest reason?
44. Peter. Much to my surprise, Martin O’Neill failed to show up at our party last night! All became clear when I learnt that, coincidentally, it was his own birthday yesterday. So understandable really.
Are you regretting closing down your Villa bet?
36 Wow, I’d love to let a graphologist loose on Mr Bercow’s signature - it’s unbelievable!
Re the astonishing referendum turnout.
Is this the lamest argument ever advanced by a British MP? From the BBC:
‘Wayne David, Labour MP for Caerphilly, dismissed the Referendum poll as a “political stunt”.
“The only people who participated in this were the people who were on the electoral register as wanting junk mail,” he said.
“If you indicated you want junk mail, you have these political stunts pulled on you. Clearly, if you want privacy and you only want to participate in elections proper then you have absented yourself from this campaign.
“So it’s not 36% of the electorate at all.” ‘
Right. Yup. More than a third of your voters, mate, got all Obama on yer ass and actually DID SOMETHING. They got off their butts and decided to take a stand and actually make an effort and get their voices heard. And this in a poll with no official backing, no nationwide advertising, no government help, no party political involvement, no legal standing whatsoever.
And yet more than a THIRD voted. But the opinions of these tens of thousands of voters can be airily dismissed as worthless “because these people are on the electoral register as wanting junk mail”.
It’s not the mail that’s junk. It’s you, you repulsive Labour creep. You horrible, malodorous cretin. Wayne David go back to the toilet bowl whence you came.
We have junk politicians, and junk leaders, and a junk party in power - that’s our problem.
51. How was the chicken panang?
Could Ester Ranson be encouraged to stand as an Independent against Margeret Hodge?
Hi stjohn - I share your disappointment that Martin didn’t show up last night. However, the good news of course, is that next year he, your wife and her friend can have a combined party and I really will try to get along next time.
As regards the Villa bet - no, I don’t regret closing it as yet since I could buy back in at approx the same price, but I would have been a trifle miffed had they beaten Arsenal yesterday and I had lost out to the extent of around £70.
If we’re wandering into the realm of football betting, my team, Bristol City, are currently leading the Championship, but are available at 5.2 to win it on Betfair.
Re. 43, I heard Rammell on the World This Weekend, and, yes, his arrogance was unbelievable. He’ll be out next time.
I too dislike the personal attacks on Boris Johnson. I disagree with many of his views (not least his strange belief that London’s buses would be better if the capital followed the system of total deregulation which has wrought such havoc on bus services outside London) but all the ‘Tory toff’ stuff is pathetic. I also much enjoyed Andrew Gilligan’s demolition of the Compass hatchet-job on Boris.
54. Herbert Proper has been a bit quiet since the match,
53 Don’t joke about Hodge. It’s quite likely that all the other mainstream parties will have to run the most paper of campaigns next time to avoid any chance of the fascists winning or coming close. She is a one woman blunderbuss
58 - Hodge manages to roll into one the worst of old and new Labour.
57 stjohn, Take a look at the season’s points market on Spreadfair and you’ll see there’s £30 worth of Villa available to sell, that’s my buy back in!
55 Andrew, that’s reminiscent of Derby County at the same stage last season prior to their late slump, the less said of them since then the better.
58. I’m not sure what you mean. There is no joke.
In the article linked, the jounalist reported the abuse claims and was ignored. Margeret Hodge attacked her and undermined the claims. What information did she have that made her certain the claims were not true.
The Jersey investigation must bring down many powerful figures involved in oppressing children and suppressing truth. It appears there are links to British abuse. If there is a link, it is right that all complicit by involvement or incompetence must fall.
21. Just out of a little interest, can you prove smoking gives you lung cancer, or are you just reliant on Doll’s figures from his survey of doctors in the 1950’s?
61 I didn’t see the link. Thought it was a random comment
I read somewhere [?} of the ten largest seats, nearly all were Tory. Of the ten smallest I think only one was.
On Question time, yonks ago, Bozza gave out a figure which represented the extra numbers in Tory over Labour seats….so it has obviously been on their minds for a while.
The attack on Boris was well trailed in the media and therefore pointing the figure at Blears, other than for being a toady, won’t work.
She was put up to do it, sanctioned by Brown etc. As usual they try to have their abuse, but not been seen to eat it. Aimless and shameless - Brown to a tee.
Boris is hated by the left because he is proof of the failure of the politics of hatred and envy which was meant to secure their power base for ever.
If people can vote for Boris, it is not just a rejection of the politics of smallmindedness, it is putting up the Vees.
60. You may turn out to be right, but at the moment the other teams around us are practically falling overthemselves to avoid going above us. Stoke are being thumped by QPR as we speak. In the next three games we have Charlton away, and Watford at home. 4 points from those two, and we’re looking good.
52. I changed my mind and had Thai seafood salad, with suki sauce. Very nice.
However, on a down note, I have had to order expensive hotel wine on room service, because all regular alcohol sales are banned today, right across Thailand. And why? Because its…. an election day.
WTF?
62. My only proof that smoking gives you lung cancer are all the many many millions of people who have smoked and then got lung cancer. Apart from that, I suspect the whole thing is a conspiracy got up by oncologists employed by Nicorette.
63. Read…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=523706&in_page_id=1770
Note as above, education officials ran the home..related to senior politicians…convicted peadaphiles were able to become policement - and get promoted…abuse claims were ignored. Margeret Hodge, then attacked the claims…
It stinks.
Apologies 21, the question at 62 was directed at 23.
64. I really like Boris.
66 Sean - have you now emigrated to Thailand?
SeanT, I am very jealous, Thai food at every meal, every day…
Did anyone catch Gordon Brown’s sinister speach yesterday…he said something like, we will change Britain…nobody has anything to fear if they do what they are told.
It sounded very sinister, almost a speach like a Nazi SS OberBastad would give to the people of the Warsaw Ghetto.
Will Lib-Dem voters switch to Boris in the hope that when he becomes Mayor they will have a chance at a stunning by-election victory in Henley?
72, a tacit admission that the plank of wood has no hope against the corrupt communist or the clown?
64. Are you of the left? If so I hope you are not alone.
If politics has moved on so far that only the ‘governing left’ hate Boris, the dog whistle will fail and/or backfire, as it should?
70. Yes, I have been here a long time! I just find it a great place to write. All your needs are catered for at such a reasonable price. Laundry done, room cleaned, beer chilled….
Plus I get the chance to do community outreach with many of the local young people.
When all these spiritual and physiological needs are absented, the mind is cleared and energised: I’ve managed to scribble a 100,000 word thriller in just six weeks. I will write the last chapter this week, inshallah.
Of course the book could be total crap, but the wordrate is still pretty good going. And I managed to skip the entire British winter.
Yay.
64: ‘Leaving aside Wales (see above), Scotland (whose boundaries are relatively up to date) and known geographical oddities, the smallest seats in England are mostly Labour strongholds - places like Sheffield Brightside (50,801), Salford (53,294), Bootle (53,700). Out of the ten smallest seats, 9 are held by Labour and 1 by the Liberal Democrats. The largest seats tend to be Conservative - places like Daventry (88,758), Northampton South (89,722) and Banbury (87,168). Leaving aside the Isle of Wight, out of the 10 largest English seats, 7 are Conservative, 3 are Lib Dem.’
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/electoral-bias/
This tory “fair seats” thing, sounds a bit off. Forgive me if i’m wrong, but the argument is to do seat sizes based on turnout as opposed to population? Thus this would increase the size of labour seats and reduce the number of labour MPs and reduce the size of conservative seats increasing the number of conservative MPs?
It seems really opportunistic and sneaky, shouldn’t politicians be attempting to increase people’s involvement in politics and desire to vote. It’s equivalent to saying “you don’t vote, so we’re gonna make it so even if you do; it’s going to count less” It’s exaggerating the disenchantment of voters.
I know that it’s unfair, and there is a bias to Labour in FPTP then there would be in PR for example. I think there should be a definite, person to MP ratio and that should be standardised across constituencies but it should not be turnout to MP.
[75] Surely Sean T is the Somerset Maugham de nos jours…
On seat boundaries, I think the only things the Tories can do are:
(1)reduce the over-representation of Scotland and Wales, (2) give the Boundaries Commssion more latitude to respect local boundaries at the expense of less equal-sized seats (no idea what the partisan implication of the latter is, though).
Anything more radical (e.g. telling the Boundaries Commission to draw boundaries on the basis of the number of votes cast at the last election) would be shredded by judicial review.
71. I dunno. The terrifying thing I heard from Brown though was the line - “Let us create the Britain of our dreams!”
When considering WHO we have to ‘create’ this new Britain:
Broon
Ed Balls
Milliband
Jacqui Smith
Hazel Blears
Alistair Darling
You’ve got to worry whether it may be a Britain of THEIR dreams but OUR nightmares…
[78] Forgot that the Scottish imbalance has been rectified already.
74. Yes, further left than any of the main parties i’d say.
Just because someone disagrees with my politics doesn’t mean they’re evil.
It is just the “governing left” in my view, the Labour party are running scared. However, a lot of conservative posters* will rant about “ken the communist” and his links to Chavez etc. Which is pretty similar in my view to Blears comments.
*none of the actual conservative party have though, at least which i’ve seen.
46 - this Jersey disgrace shows that we need to wrap up the ‘governments’ and ‘independent jurisdictions’ of these little islands and make them properly accountable to Westminster!
55 - hahahaha. I’m surprise city are still up there tho’ and they have done better than I would have thought possible. And Stoke have now blown it so it is between us [WATFORD], WBA and City (with still time for the Palace who are flying again!)
64/76 yes all Labour seats are small in electorate - they need every help they can get to avoid going below 200 next time!
Hi,
you guys are after evidence that Labour and pro-European sites are working together - well here’s some evidence http://www.lme-lse.org.uk/blog/?p=43 and http://www.lme-lse.org.uk/blog/?p=31 that pro European sites are encouraging EU citizens to vote Labour. It’s time all parties involved EU citizens in politics, not just Labour, otherwise a very powerful internal EU citizen bloc voting could keep Labour in power for decades and sway a Treaty referendum in favour of full integration.
Ken will be returned as Labour Mayor, Boris won’t win.
80: Not really, the Western Isles is still by far the seat with the smallest number of voters.
78. Er, surely a Tory government (with a big enough majority) could basically do what the F they like? I’m not saying this is good, just saying how it is.
We don’t have a written constitution. We don’t have a Supreme Court. A government could therefore just come in and say: from now on we are going to do elections like THIS with THESE boundaries, and that would be that. All the media bleating and leftie whingeing in the world wouldn’t make a whit of difference, as long as the legislation was passed in parliament?
No? Or am I missing something? Does the EU now tell us how to have elections?
If he has the majority Cammo should just bring in the necessary laws saying all constituencies have to have such-and-such a population or thereabouts, and bingo. Job done. Labour stuffed.
85 - cant we change the boundaries so wales have no seats??!
hehehehe
85. I believe next GE, we are having EU observers in order to prevent fraud.
I’d like to believe that if the tories, or labour, or lib dems or anyone tried to fix the system, it wouldn’t just be lefties whingeing.
83 continued
Many EU citizens are hostile to Eurosceptic politicians and that’s why the will vote Labour and Lib Dem to keep Boris and the Tories out.
As a moderate Eurosceptic we have to acknowledge that EU citizens are increasingly forming a very big and important economic bloc in the UK (England in particular) and I have to admit we need to involve them in politics now, before they form an extremely federalist pro EU party that will seek to break this country up into little pieces and not be of any value to us. I would rather thay all voted Labour or Lib Dem than formed some pan European Federalist Union Party.
87. I think also EU citizens will be able to vote and stand too in the next GE - the EU observers are just proof that that change will be made. EU integration is very very nearly complete.
I suggested here years ago that if you had STV instead of a fixed number of members per constituency you could have a fixed quota of voters required to elect an MP.
Then there would a genuine reason for every voter to vote in every constituency… and if you don’t think MPs are important then not voting would reflect that view. Might actually encourage the parties to campaign amongst those groups who presently exclude themselves.
87. I’m not saying Cammo should “fix the system”. He should just bring in a law saying all constituencies must have a population within, say, 5000 of a median figure.
The effect of this will be, happily, to stuff Labour good and proper. About time too as they are despicable traitors, as they admit themselves.
But the reforms will be wholly fair, morally correct, and entirely justified. And they might help the Lib Dems too, so I suspect the law would get serious support in parliament.
75 Speaking of your forthcoming book, have you settled on a title yet? Hope you liked my suggestion - “Don’t blame me, it’s not my vault” - did it make the shortlist?
Wait wait wait.
EU, non-British citizens can vote in our elections?
If so, that’s a complete bloody outrage!
91. Fair enough.
However, i’d expect any change in the system would eventually create a change in voting patterns though. In about two or three elections, voters would change behaviour in order to ensure they got the results they wanted. So i wouldn’t expect Labour to be “stuffed” long term.
92. lol! very good.
We have finally settled on a title for my 2nd volume of memoirs:
Wait Till Your Father Gets Home
A nice title, nicked from an obscure 70s cartoon series. However this book has yet to be accepted for publication, so who knows if it will grace the shelves.
The thriller, which has by contrast been accepted - indeed commissioned - is as yet untitled. Though I came up with an idea the other day:
Bible of Lies
which I rather like. Regular readers will know my nom de plume is Tom Knox.
As someone said
Bible of Lies
by
Tom Knox
Does rather sound like a withering tract of 18th century Scottish anti-Papism, rather than a thriller, but you can’t have everything.
86 I’m sure Stephen Crabb, David Davies, David Jones and several aspiring PPCs will love you for that Ave It
95. Oddly enough, “Bible” doesn’t really sound Biblical enough. Surely something like “Testament” or “Scripture” has a bit more about it?
96 - just keeping it simple. OK they can have 20 seats which is all their population justifies……
93 - 300,000 French people live in London, many of the working in the City (allowing them the hours and wages not possible in France).
They live here, pay tax and NI here, and contribute to the UK economically and culturally. If we can vote in their elections under the same conditions, why disenfranchise them?
97. Hmm… Yes… A fair point.
I suspect the publishers will nix “Bible of Lies” anyway, as being too, well, “Biblical”.
Titles are a bitch. And v important. Hemingway used to come up with a hundred before choosing one. It would take him months.
I have about three days to find mine. I am refusing the formula “the something something”, which my publishers want.
83 -thanks for that francis, though it sort of confirms what I suspected: not so much general pro-European sites supporting Ken, as Labour sites supporting Ken, with a proEU angle to attract EU voters. Links much appreciated though, and an interesting angle.
Isn’t Boris something of a Europhile as well, or have I got that horribly wrong?
101. Horribly wrong. Boris is a pretty firm eurosceptic, and indeed has the experience to back it up.
He was a Telegraph correspondent in Brussels, and began the job with a certain idealism; he now loathes and reviles the whole thing, I believe.
100. Of course Hemingway also ended up doing himself some fairly severe cranial surgery with a shotgun. Maybe he’d have been happier if he’d just picked titles out of a hat.
99, they’re not British citizens they shouldn’t get the vote.
If they are British citizens they should.
Europe isn’t a bloody country (not yet anyway), and foreigners should not be able to influence our elections.
95 “Wait Till Your Father Gets Home”
I remember watching that. It was on Sunday mornings, before the politics stuff*. It had a rather entertaining vigilante called Ralph, if my emory serves me. Can’t remember much else, though.
*Brian Walden. Weekend World. Mountain’s Nantucket Sleigh Ride. That’s the bunny….
102 - Cheers SeanT.
Maybe if Europhiles sold it to him as the way to resurrect the Roman Empire, he might be more in favour - or do you reckon he’s a Greek City States sort of guy at the moment.
I’m going to repeat my serious suggestion that all EU law should be primarily written in Latin, with the function outsourced to the Vatican. That would save on translation (everything having to be in all languages, and done centrally, is mad and wasteful - if Belgium wants it in Flemish, they can pay for the translation - I reckon they speak French and German, and are just making a point), as well as resurrecting Latin as the pan-European language, making it easier for all kids in Europe to learn more Modern Foreign Languages.
101 Your answer at 42
104 - Maybe they shouldn’t be paying tax either? Or living here? Or bringing inward investment? They are (in this case) Londoners, irrespective of nationality. I have no problem with it at all, as I think if you live and work here, you should get a say in how the place is run. You shouldn’t have to go through 7 years and a change of passport to influence the way your tax is spent.
107 - cheers Punter, I’d agree, especially on PC in the valleys. That was a flash in the pan that will fade all the faster for them being in ‘government’.
106. I think he’s just a libertarian, a patriot and a democrat. Pretty hard to be any of those things, let alone all three, and be a europhile.
Indeed it is fairly hard to be a morally sentient human being and be a europhile, though I make the usual exception for Peter the Punter.
OK, I’m off to watch the Darjeeling Limited. I hear its good.
Sawadee.
99.”93 - 300,000 French people live in London”
Out of curiosity how many of them were eligible to vote in the French elections?
If they were and did, then I think in fairness they should not expect to receive a vote here. If they become British citizens and forfeit their right to take part in the elections in the country of their origin, fair enough.
Ralph @ 76
To be fair to Labour, the small electorate seats in which they are currently the incumbents include the two Wirral seats (West and South) which the Conservatives fought tooth and nail to preserve in their current form as the former is a notional gain and the latter a plausible target. Even if this works out for them, the local Tories seem likely to find themselves in the same position at the next boundary review as their counterparts in Havering did at the last one.
108, nonsense.
Citizens get the vote, non-citizens don’t. The idea that paying tax on the wages you yourself say they wouldn’t stand a chance of earning in France gives them the same right to choose governments as Britons is rubbish.
If they choose to become a citizen, that’s another matter, but migrating here doesn’t (or shouldn’t anyway) give you automatic voting rights.
Also, nobody actually answered me, can EU non-British citizens vote in UK elections?
111 We had a French lady in our London office, who said that indeed the French over here could vote for the French Presidential election. However, the queue for French nationals to vote in the London polling stations was so long it took nearly two hours to do so.
British votes for British voters….!
111-I think EU citizens can vote in local elections only, not sure if this includes the devolved parliaments. Irish citizens can vote in all elections.
106-You are lucky you pick on the Flemish Belgians. Replace EU with UK, French and German with English, Belgium with “immigrants” and the New Order’s thought police with Kamp Kommandant Braun would be after you!!
100, If the publishers want a dum-de-dumb title,just do a Bible of Lies variant.
Gospel of deceit
Disciples of Deceit
Testament of Truth
Disciples and Destiny
The Tryptic Covenant
The Genesis Matrix
The Devinity Matrix
The Tom Knox good, Protestant Reformist meets Magnum PI
113 Only UK, Irish & Commonwealth citizens can vote in General Elections, EU citizens can vote in Scots, Welsh, Northern Irish and in local elections.
In FPTP system how seats are distributed is driven by two differing objectives - fair representation of interests or fair representation of population. The HoC was originally a House of Communes aimed at representing the boroughs and mercantile interests as against the Church and Landowners in the Lords. The geographical division driven from borough representation still has a pre-eminence in how boundaries are drawn up. The Commission doesn’t consider race, religion, party preference but tries still to fit constituencies to town, city, parish or county divisions.
In US there is more importance given to representation of population and of population groups - so seats are gerrymandered to provide seats giving ethnic representation or to create safe Republican or Democrat seats. There is obviously party advantage sought but though the districts look geographically silly they often connect areas of similar ethnic, economic or other common populations. Outcomes may then more closely resemble in total seats the actual political preferences of a State.
The UK geographical approach has resulted in disparity of outcomes which is currently hurting the Conservatives.
Lib Dem philosophy is all about population representation, irrespective of interests by suggesting PR. At its purest it would view all of the UK really as one constituency but preference seems to be large multi-member constituencies retaining some geographical link.
I prefer FPTP and wouldn’t be against an element of US Gerrymandering to reduce disparities.
111 - That’s a fair point, and one that deserves an answer, though I don’t know. It makes no difference to us of course, but the general principal of fairness dctates that they shoudn’t vote in both.
113 - Not sure I see it that way. I think you should vote where you live, and pay tax where you live, and receive public services where you live. Given that plenty of us move around in different EU countries, it is impracticable to expect people to keep changing nationalities, and would be difficult for national security if they did so.
I might live in Madrid, and pay tax and vote there, but not necessarily want to change my citizenship, for a whole number of reasons - I would be resident, not naturalized. That is important for the free movement of labour.
I less problem with EU citizen (or even US citizens with residency in the UK) voting in our elections than the ex-pats who have the temerity to attack the EU whilst getting free healthcare in Spain (they are not wrong, just lacking in grace), and complain about immigration and lack of integration by Muslims when they live on the Costa del Sol and can’t order a meal in Spanish. They pay no tax, they don’t live here, and yet they get to change the way my country is run from hundreds of miles away. *That* is an outrage.
118-Interesting ideas. If you pay tax then you should have a vote. When the Tories tried this with the Poll Tax there was general outrage. (But not necessarily by me!!)
188- Not sure I like which side of that debate you’re putting me on. I prefer the whole Declaration of Independence “No Taxation without Representation”, or as opponents of Inheritance Tax put it “No Taxation without Respiration”!
Thanks for the answers on EU eligibility to vote.
If French people want to vote in London’s elections, I think that’s great. I think the local elections but not GE is a fair deal - you can be a Londoner without being British.
I’d ask how Morris Dancer would feel if the Welsh Assembly banned English people in Wales from voting in those elections?
118 sparked a thought. UK citizens are along with Germans & Scandinavians are major purchasers of second homes in the sunnier parts of Europe - part of freedom of movement. If as suggested planning controls are bought in to ban/control purchase of second homes in England would this be OK under EU rules?
4 (7, 9 … 96, 112) - ‘On average, Tory constituencies contain more voters than Labour ones, meaning that Labour can win a majority of seats even if the Tories win more actual votes.’
Disproportionality under FPTP is only marginally connected to inequality in constituency size. With perfect electoral equality of constituencies a perverse result remains eminently possible: imagine 100 seats, each containing 100 electors and 3 parties standing in each:
in 51 seats, Party A receives 34 votes and parties B and C 33 votes each
in 49 seats, Party B receives 98 votes and parties A and C 1 vote each
Party A total votes = ( 34 x 51 ) + ( 1 x 49 ) = 1783
Party B total votes = ( 33 x 51 ) + ( 98 x 49 ) = 6485
Party C total votes = ( 33 x 51 ) + ( 1 x 49) = 1732
Party A receives 51% of the seats on 17.8% of the vote
Party B receives 49% of the seats on 64.9% of the vote
Party C receives 0% of the seats on 17.3% of the vote
So you would be in favour of gerrymandering, eh Ted (17)?
You Tories…….. Nothing changes, does it? [Sigh]
122 As long as Party A are the Conservatives and Party C the Lib Dems that looks perfectly fair.
124. you are ‘ave it and i claim my £5.
Pip (222). Are you suggesting that the present FPTP system is pure gerrymandering (as apparently favoured by the Tories)?
???? !!!!!!
Latest Zogby for Reuters/C-Span/Houston Chronicle Primary Trackers for Ohio and Texas :
Texas -
Clinton 43% .. Obama 47%
McCain 54% .. Huckabee 36%
Ohio -
Clinton 47% .. Obama 46%
McCain 61% .. Huckabee 27%
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1459
What you meant to write, Ted (24) is “perfectly corrupt”. Even “banana republic”. Tories in favour, of course.
123: Labour has been in power during the creation of, and owes its present majority to, a substantial electoral bias in favour of the Labour Party.
Does that mean that all Tories are simulaneously bananas and republicans?
124, 126
125 hehehe - proper election!
O/T but the former Speaker of the Hose of Representatives resigned from Congress at the end of 2007. There is a special election for his successor to the 14th district of Illinois on March 8th.
This should be a GOP cakewalk - Hastert used to win roughly 60-75% of the vote, in fact, 2006 was the first time in 20 years he won less than 60% (he got 59.79%) - albeit not against great opponents.
The buzz is around a Democrat challenger, Bill Foster, who set up a theatrical lighting manufacturing business with his brother aged 19, and made money, before working at FERMI Science Labs. He is ahead in a recent poll against a dairy magnate called Jim Oberweis, who believes all cattle should be covered by a Universal Healthcare plan, but not his human employees.
Oberweis is not the most popular guy in the GOP, but to lose IL-14 would be a great shot in the arm for the Democratic Party, and will make them pitch at seats they thought were unwinnable.
Hat-tip to the Daily Kos blog for the latest on this race.
Polling info makes for interesting reading:
http://foster08.com/memo.pdf
124. Exactly. Any system which marginalises fringe parties and front organisations should be applauded.
The Houston Chronicle on the battle for Texas :
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5585063.html
120, the Welsh and the English are British citizens. Wales and England aren’t separate countries, so I view your comparison as invalid.
Is one to infer that YP (34) is a fascist?
Or just a fanatical Cameron Conservative?
114, 115 currently EU citizens can vote in any member state’s local, regional and European elections only, but not national elections. Once the EU treaty is ratified the EU becomes one nation so that means every EU citizen can vote in all elections in whichever member state they reside. If they are denied this right they can make an official complaint to overturn this so lets get on on and just give the EU citizens the right to vote before we are forced to.
136 Ah but Wales at least has an Assembly, England does not.
139, that’s true. I suppose some home nations are more equal than others.
But, Morris (36), are the countries of the EU to be seen as “separate countries”? I do but ask….
With the incredible movement of peoples among countries (esp eg England to Spain, and more recently to France), I think that in many ways we are the same “country”……
140 Thats why I think there should a national Parliament for England.
95.
It’s a shame you can’t marry and mingle names with the sistrer of a famous jockey. Then your political polarity would no doubt have to change.
Tom Knox Detorri
Geddit?
137: LDs keeping us amused as usual:
A-hahaha, A-hahaha!!
141. I am in favour of democratic accountability within the EU. If I moved to Spain I should lose my voting rights in the UK, but be able to exercise democratic rights in my new EU state. Unfortunately many Britons are moving to other EU states and that leaves us open to mass EU immigration. Unfortunately democracy means democracy and we are citizens of the EU rather than subjects of Her Majesty the Queen.
141. Er, no. If I spend lots of time in next door’s house, it doesn’t become my house, and I remain a visitor.
In addition, what the hell do you mean ’seen’ as separate countries? They *are* separate countries, except in the federalist wet dreams of EU-phile traitors.
The sooner the EU’s political integration goes into reverse, the better. If things keep getting closer, with lack of electoral accountability, loss of national identity and sovereignty and widespread corruption it’ll simply fall apart in years or decades, probably acrimoniously to say the least.
136 - It’s allegorical, rather than a direct comparison.
I’m saying that you should ge