How will the bookies decide who has won Texas?
March 3rd, 2008
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Could we be heading for a messy post-election row?
With tomorrow’s vital Texas primary attracting a lot of betting interest and with the result looking as though it is on a knife-edge there’s a chance that we might see a huge betting row over who actually “wins” the state.
For the contender who wins the most votes in the main election might end up with significantly fewer delegates because of the complicated rules
This is because of the two stage nature of the election and the ways the delegates will be divided. For a third will be decided on Tuesday evening at thousands of caucus meetings in the states. A pre-requirement to take part in these is that you have voted in the main election - so those bother to spend the evening there will effectively have two votes.
On top of that there have been concerns about the way delegates are divided between different parts of the state. The Democratic party has a rule there that this is based on how well the party did in recent elections and it’s being suggested that this could penalise parts with a high proportion of Hispanics.
In addition there have been strong hints by the Hillary campaign that they might refer the whole process to the courts - something that could delay settlement for months. So we have a range of possibilities.
If one of the contenders wins the popular vote in the election, the most delegates and comes out top in the caucuses then there is no problem.
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But what happens if, based on current polls Hillary wins the overall vote in the main election but gets fewer delegates and then goes on to come off second best in the caucuses?
What will happen if she then goes onto contest the issue in the courts and this lasts for weeks. Punters could then find that their stake money is held onto for weeks or ever longer by the bookies.
On the overall issue one or two firms have recognised the problem. Ladbrokes are making it absolutely clear that the “winner” means securing the most delegates overall - not all other firms have had such foresight.
The Nevada caucus in January saw a potential problem. Hillary won on votes but Obama won on delegates. There was some discussion here but Betfair settled very quickly. Texas might not be so simple.
Latest Texas betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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I expect the point to be moot - Obama will win the popular vote, the resulting 2/3rds of early delegates and the 1/3rd caucus delegates.
Of interest, Zogby has Obama ahead in Ohio - I believe the first poll to do so? Obama 47% Clinton 45% - on the back of men moving to him. They have Obama 3% ahead in Texas too. All with the usual caveat that every US poll stinks until shown otherwise.
I have been annoyed for weeks at the BBC and the British media who keep talking about Obama and Clllinton “winning” this or that state each time. A casual viewer who is intelligent but only paying 80% attention - and not being an elections anorak - could easily be led to think it’s like a winner-takes-all system for each state.
If Andrea is around, his hopes regarding Dunkie dashed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/03/ntory103.xml
2) Its not “moot” if you have money on it matey boy!
This is my response from Betfair - Mike - can we encourage them to use the Ladbrokes’s method?
Dear xxxxx
Thank you for your e-mail.
We are aware of the complexities of this specific primary. However, regardless of the process there will still be a declared winner of the ‘Texas Primary’ and it is this upon which we will settle.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further enquiries.
Kind regards
xxxxx xxxxxx
Betfair Helpdesk
I think it’s fairly obvious that Hillary will do everything she can to drag Obama into a messy fight if at all possible. She has to fight for every single vote and delegate and I have no doubt that she will stoop as low as she has to.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
5 “Its not “moot” if you have money on it matey boy!”
Well, matey boy, don’t take ambiguous bets then! Looks like Hillary wasn’t the only one who didn’t fully comprehend the “Texas Two-Step” primary… But my point was, whichever way you look at “winning”, I expect that Obama will satisfy the criteria come Wednesday morning.
Hillary rebounding in Texas?
http://tinyurl.com/2qm3b7
5 I am bemused by Betfair saying “regardless of the process there will still be a declared winner of the ‘Texas Primary’”. Declared by whom? Rather a non-answer - unless it is declared by Betfair themselves!
8 What a staggeringly misleading headline on that piece. Hillary leading? Well only amongst self-declared Democratic responders. The detail actually shows Obama winning!
“Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among early voters (24% of likely Democratic primary voters), while Obama is at 47% and Clinton is at 46% among in-person voters.”
Where Clinton’s campaign has done well is in changing expectations. A few weeks ago it was that she had to win both Texas and Ohio with large margins to stay in race. Now it’s that she could lose one of them and a small margin in popular vote in other would be OK. If she does well in Ohio - well now being 5-10% ahead on popular vote - it’ll be a Comeback. If she wins popular vote in Texas, it’ll be a Comeback.
The delegate figures don’t stack up for her but it is looking more and more like its Pennsylvania here we come (and then?)
8 - ARG = Joke Pollsters.
‘That said’ Texas is too close to call at the moment, Zogby had good movement for Clinton on Saturday and very strong movement for Obama on Sunday in his tracking polls… but Zogby has a record of exagerating trends, so we’ll see… interestingly Mason-Dixon have Obama up 1 and while they were not too good in the early contests they are a very good pollsters and were pretty good in forcasting the Super Tuesday contests.
11 “If she does well in Ohio - well now being 5-10% ahead on popular vote….”
Except, Ted, today Zogby has Obama two points up in Ohio….
Nobody has commented on this one yet - Suffolk: HRC 12% up.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/FinalOHIOMarginalsMarch22008.html
If you look at the detail, it seems fairly clea why it produces a result favorable to her - sample looks biased towards older white women, for example - but even so, it suggests she can hold Ohio, which a few days back I would have thought unlikely.
13 Can you link me to the Zogy poll, Marquee?
Thanks.
The whispers (on Politico, anyway) are that Bill Clinton will be called in to do the, ah, wetwork, if his wife only wins one of Texas and Ohio. Given that he’s already stated himself that they need to win both to stay in the race, he should be prepared for this. The question will then be if HRC is ready to listen.
14 - Dont have a great record as a pollsters and more importantly (as you say their samples look way off), although it’s possible for Clinton to break into the mid-fifties in OH, the Colombus Dispatch also had a similarly wide lead for Clinton in OH, but again it was a strange poll and the CD has a bad track record… the State has never been a strong prospect for Obama in the primaries (regardless of the latest Zogby poll), what is interesting is that most Sunday Obama was in Ohio which means his campaign thinks there’s somthing worth scrapping for there.
15 PtP - headline numbers from a Zogby subscriber posted on Daily Kos (not yet generally released?)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/3/1450/58789/114/467700
14 96% were “very likely to vote” or had already voted in the Democratic Primary! Not your average random sample of Ohio residents then!
I cashed my Obama “shares” last night and have now bought McCain “gilts” as I expect McCain’s price to shorten the more and more the Democratic nominee contest goes on.
The new Russian president won with 64,000%.
Reminds me of Ave it ‘08.
Also on Politico an interesting exchange reported on Hilary not quite denying the possiblity Obama is a secret Muslim.
“You don’t believe that Senator Obama’s a Muslim?” Kroft asked Sen. Clinton.
“Of course not. I mean, that, you know, there is no basis for that. I take him on the basis of what he says. And, you know, there isn’t any reason to doubt that,” she replied.
“You said you’d take Senator Obama at his word that he’s not…a Muslim. You don’t believe that he’s…,” Kroft said.
“No. No, there is nothing to base that on. As far as I know,” she said.
“As far as I know” suggests possibility that she’s been misled or misinformed.
19 No Mark.
I’m not a great details man when it comes to polls. You need Mike Smithson or Rod Crosby, but it does look like an atypical sample.
22 - It’s a pretty crash attempt at hard-ball politics and i dont think she or her campaign are as good at it as they like to think, where you copying ad ideas from Walter Mondale somthing has to be wrong.
23 The main point to note is that it excludes independents and cross-over republicans, who have to date been voting in large numbers and very significantly favouring Obama (2:1+).
Zogby had an awful time on ST. They had New Jersey close, Clinton won easily. They had Obama up by 10 in California, Clinton won by 10. Not to be trusted. I’d still have Clinton as favourite in Ohio but the margin is unlikely to be more than 5 points either way. As for Texas it is important who wins the PV. If Clinton ekes out a victory, however small, I’d expect her to stay in the race. Given most polls have them within 2/3% of each other this is possible. If she loses the PV in either Texas or Ohio I expect her to withdraw.
25. Indeed, Mark. All the same, 12 points is 12 points.
I was worried that our all nite session at Elitebet tomorrow might be a bit dull. Not looking that way now.
Shadsy has taken lot of bets on Hillary. He’s out shopping for brown trousers.
22 A ridiculous attempt at a smear. Someone like Obama who has been a member of the same church for twenty years canot possibly be denounced (if that’s the right word) as a Muslim. What next? That he’s secretly a Republican?
I don’t think the Hllary camp have been playing expectations very well at all.
Two weeks ago her husband, FFS, said she had to win Texas AND Ohio if she was to stand a chance. That was surely a mistake as it has boxed her in. And now it looks like she might lose Texas and be run fairly close in Ohio. And suddenly that doesn’t matter, despite what Bill said?
Nope. It’s only a few hardened Hillarylovers on here - Yokel? - who think that she can survive losing Texas. Especially if she loses it by all counts: by delegates AND and in the popular vote.
If that happens her one remaining shred of credibility, that only she can win the “big” states, is gone. She would need literally mindblowing victories in Ohio and the other Tuesday states to make up for this.
She won’t get that. Ergo the markets have it right. Obama is still odds-on favourite for the Nom because it looks like he will do well in Texas and if he does well there its over for Hillary.
I actually don’t think she will fight on after March 4th. I think she will bow out gracefully to save her dignity, and allow her career to continue who knows where. She may be stubborn but she’s not stupid.
Tuesday is probably the endgame for Hillary, and she knows it. But until the moment she will fight tooth-and-nail, and fair enough.
14 PtP. That ‘Suffolk’ poll was also 89% registered Democrats and Ohio is an open primary. It’s almost as useful as the Dispatch poll that was only Deomocrats !!
26 I agree Zogby (and most others) have a poor track record - and that both the Ohio and Texas winners now seem to be shrouded within the margin of error of the polls (which in itself is a massive achievement for Obama relative to where he was even two weeks ago). But one feature of all the primaries/caucuses held since Super Tuesday is that Obama has significantly beaten the opinion polling - and often by a big margin.
There has been a spike for Hillary in the Iowa exchanges. Over the weekend she was trading around high 12’s and now she close to 17’s :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
27 “All the same, 12 points is 12 points.”
But if she only gets one third of the votes from one third of the electorate (those who aren’t within the sample) - then bang goes 11 of your 12%!
Meanwhile …. Toby Harnden of the “Daily Telegraph” on whether Hillary is preparing to bow out :
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/foreign/tobyharnden/mar08/wistfulhillary.htm
Wow, the attacks on Boris were verging on the hysterical at the labour conference. Hasn’t really done much though, may invigorate some existing labour voters but thats about it.
Apologies if already mentioned, but the results of the mini referendum on the EU constitution show an overwhelming wish for a vote, an overwhelming ‘no’ on whether it should be ratified - and a very respectable turnout too.
Food for thought for those who claim no-one is interested in this issue.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/03/neu103.xml
36. Yes I took part, as did a fair few people I know. Watching that Labour MP dismiss it as a stunt fueled by the tories on the politics show on sunday was funny, his majority was 97 and I think we can safely say thats gone.
37 - Never make predictions like that, it may return to haunt you.
36. Reasonable turnout for an opinion poll, not for a referendum. That said, even 36% turnout means that it’s strongly indicative of public opinion (I would expect something closer to 70% opposition to the treaty than 88%, but no matter).
In any case, unless the whips do some serious arm-twisting, the Government is about to get some truly awful press.
Meanwhile II …. It’s that Toby Harnden chap again dashing around with Hillary in Texas :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/02/wus302.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
36 - that story has only been mentioned about a dozen times this weekend on here.
surely the budget is a much more important issue than the EU to the average Joe. Should we have a referendum on that too then? What about Iraq? ID-cards? The WTO talks? All important stuff. I bet if you asked people individually they would say “yes I want a say” but then if they had to hold a referendum every month they’d end up never turning out.
41, referendum promises in manifestos, etc. You know why it’s morally indefensible not to have one.
33 Yes, I understand Mark. All I want is a nice close contest - preferably in Texas too - and the odds fluctuating wildly!
Looks like I might get my wish.
41: People just want the Government to keep its promise.
Meanwhile III …. Ewen MacAskill in the “Gruntfutock” on Hillary blazing away in Texas :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/03/hillaryclinton.barackobama
42 “promises of referenda in manfesti” shurely?
41. Yes, but we have yet to see Mike Smithson press F1 on his keyboard, to paste up his normal ridiculous “but the people don’t care, look at the polls” anti-referendum crapola.
Funny how that doesn’t quite ring so true now, isn’t it?
And your remarks are equally infantile. People didn’t just chirp “I want a say” to a passing pollster. They actually went out and posted votes in a referendum - a referendum without any official backing, no national advertising, no major party support, no legal effect, no government acknowledgment, nothing.
They did it in their tens of thousands. More people voted in these “irrelevant and gimmicky” polls than in many local elections or indeed European elections.
You simply can’t dismiss results like this as being trivial or meaningless and still call yourself a democrat.
The people just want a say on the EU Constitution. Just give us the vote we were promised by every single major party.
Let the people decide.
44 Ralph. Governments keeping their promises !!!! …. now there’s a novelty for the past fifty years and more.
44 - However the govt. argument is that manifesto commitments are not subject to legitimate expectation.
More people voted in these “irrelevant and gimmicky” polls than in many local elections or indeed European elections.
Yes - the latter point, comparing the turnout with EU elections, struck me as especially notable.
47 Sean, no you are right, I am not in favour of Athenian democracy as it leads to mob rule and the execution of decent coves like Socrates. I support representative democracy.
Of course people care about the EU how could they not with all the bile that is poured daily on that imperfect construction. But Sean do you really believe people care as much about the EU as they do taxes, the NHS and Iraq. Really?
Meanwhile IV …. Andrew Gumbell in the “Independent” on whether the sisters will win it for Hillary :
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/women-rally-round-for-hillarys-toughest-fight-790486.html
48: Jack, a want unmet is still a want.
I posted this link yesterday and dedicated it to Hillary. I thought I would do it again to cheer up some of the older pbers on a Monday morning:
http://tinyurl.com/3ceknv
You know, I think if we had gotten a vote on the Constitution (the one everyone said was a constitution), or even if we had gotten a vote on the Lisbon Treaty, I think they might (just) have been winnable. I don’t think they would have been lost more than 60%-40%. I’d happily have voted for both versions.
Because of the way this has been mishandled by Europhiles, the whole country has had its worst suspicions (and worse still) confirmed: unaccountable, unelected, eitist, distant, shifty - the whole nine yards of the Eurosceptic nightmare. A referendum cannot now be held, because it is unwinnable, losing 75%-plus of the vote.
I am/was generally a Europhile - I like freer travel, I think good things come out of integrating developed nations, I like cultural diversity in great cities, I would happily use the Euro if it made economic sense. I am happy to be a European from the UK, or Anglo-European, or whatever we will be in 20 years. I like Europe and never felt it to be threatening before (useless, bureaucratic, and expensive, but rarely threatening). I still feel the sentiment for the idea, but nothing but disdain for those leading it. This debacle has made even me something of an EU-phobe.
Bad policy - awful politics. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you our Continental Leadership.
51. You are missing the point. The people have a right to a say in how they will be governed in the future, a right to a say in the constitutional framework which determines how decisions on all the main bread and butter issues will be made.
Governments do not have the right to fundamentally alter the constitutional arrangements of the country without asking the people - especially when they have already explicitly promised they would ask the people’s view.
Meanwhile V …. Nick Palmer sends out a member of his hit squad to Pimlico to silence seanT once and for all :
http://cakonos.image.pbase.com/image/20426395.jpg
55 - Hmm, a referendum can only be held if the pre-ordained ‘right’ answer is likely to win. That’s an interesting approach. Prepare for the full SeanT treatment!
Ok, lets keep this simple.
If, and is an if, Hillary closes the gap at all after Tuesday then she has reason to stay on. This whole business about Florida & Michigan is a potential spoke in the wheel.
31. Only when he’s been in front consistently on polling day and he was universially expected to win. If you look at where he’s been challenging, perhaps even in front in some polls but its a close contest he hasn’t always got home by any means. Some he’s won, some he’s lost. There were expectations about CA & NV and Hillary took the popuar vote in both…then we had NH. There are potentially others.
We don’t know tomorrow will pan out, she could win both or lose both OH & TX. If she wins overall then she has reason to carry on. If she loses she doesn’t. This isnt just about what we think this side of the ocean, part of it isnt even about the mathematics of what we currently see. Its about how the Democrats work, which few if any of us actually fully understand, and also Hillary’s position, which is firmly in a corner. She might as well go down in flames.
Zogby detail on Ohio and Texas nowup:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1460
58 - James (and SeanT) please understand - I would now vote against, simply because of the mistrust I now have for the Europhile project.
I think there should be a referendum irrespective of likelihood of winning. My point was that even the most cynical Europhile must accept that they have ruined their chances of ever winning a referndum, by coming across as so slippery and undemocratic.
I want a referendum, whatever the result - Europhiles have so damaged themselves, they will never win a referendum except for (maybe) an ‘in or out’ referendum.
SeanT
Morus puts my own sentiments rather better than I could have done.
I mention it only because you were kind enough not to fire on me when I stuck my head above the parapet the other day and I thought I should at last give you an inkling of why and in what way I class myself as a europhile.
And you deserve a second chance to pull thetrigger.
61. I agree. In general I was pro-european to a degree, but now I see it as a monolith, unwilling and unable to justify itself or its expenses. This new treaty will transfer more power to a corrupt and incompetant super beauracracy that we won’t be able to vote out.
56 - So by the logic that Lisbon alters the constitution (it doesn’t really) we should also have put the following to a vote: the role of government special advisers; the role of select committees; membership of Nato; membership of the WTO…. Where will it end?
55 - Bang on Morus - the idea of the constitution was the last sigh of unreconstructed euro-federalists. The referendum defeats in 2005 should be the the dawn of a new EU that Britain would be ideally placed to lead. Why can’t the europhobes see this?
As for the argument “but sir you promised”. Purleese. It was a promise made for political reasons which has now been broken for political reasons. I’d much rather that than a referendum every time a manifesto pledge was broken.
Personally, I do consider it significant that 133,000 people in 10 constituencies should care enough about this issue to respond.
Bill Rammell may think it makes no difference to his chances of holding Harlow, but he’d really be well advised to look for another job.
59 Yokel. We do know how it will pan out in terms of delegates :
In Texas the hybrid form, early voting trends and the Obama friendly district delegate allocation means he’ll take a majority in Texas.
In Ohio the delegate allocation rules means it is very difficult for a candidate to gain an advantage in a area unless they gain over 60% of the vote, otherwise the allocation is equal. So a close popular vote result either way means a close delegate count.
Rhode Island and Vermont are most likely to either cancel one another out or have a small pro Obama bonus.
In all Obama will increase his delegate margin.
65 - Well it makes no difference in the sense that he was always likely to lose Harlow by quite a lump and that hasn’t really changed.
O/T The FT has Brown allies say 2009 election likely. Sounds a sensible strategy from the Brownites IF the political weather allows, otherwise its 2010 as most seem to be predicting?
“As for the argument “but sir you promised”. Purleese. It was a promise made for political reasons which has now been broken for political reasons. I’d much rather that than a referendum every time a manifesto pledge was broken.”
Why bother to issue a manifesto, then, if you don’t feel under any obligation to stick to it?
I think Morus is right. A referendum *might* have been won (on balance, I think not), but it’s inconceivable now, and the europhiles just look slippery and dishonest.
58. I’m not even going to bother giving that remark the full seanT treatment because it satirises itself, doesn’t it?
“A referendum cannot now be held, because it is unwinnable, losing 75%-plus of the vote.”
Just substitute the word “referendum” with “general election” and we get the full flavour of europhile venality. They don’t care about democracy, they just want to force through the project. And if the people won’t let them, stuff the people.
To be fair to Morus he makes one good point. I think the Europhiles have won a battle with this Constitution, but they have won it in such a devious and lying way it is actually counter-productive - and it means they may well lose the war.
At some point Britain will get a referendum on its relationship with Europe. It can’t be avoided forever.
At that moment all the full force of forty years of anger and bitterness that has built up, bitterness and resentment over the way the europhiles have deceived the people time and again, will just come bursting out.
I actually fear for that moment. I don’t want us to quit the EU altogther but the anger that us mounting may force us into just that position.
It’s like the Civil War. At the beginning, the puritans and roundheads merely wanted reform, under a democratised monarchy.
But the way Charles 1 behaved - continually lying and betraying his promises - led to the extreme endpoint where he was executed and a republic was installed. An outcome virtually no one desired or expected at the outset.
He that does not learn from history….
66. L
FWIW, my latest Samplemiser projections have Obama very slightly ahead of Clinton in Texas, though in reality it is too close to call. Of course McCain is still crushing Huckabee.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/03/obama-leads-by-a-nose-in-texas/
Morus[46]
[55] I tend to share your point of view on some of this… In particular the fact that we won’t sign Schengen (”foreigners will control immigration”) means that it is becoming ever slower for us to travel, as more and more countries adopt the standard Schengen procedures, but the UK still keeps its own rules. The result is that instead of five minutes at the border, you can wait a whole lot longer to get back into the UK, even just coming from Denmark. Given that the number of illegals is higher in the UK than the Schengen countries, I can’t help feeling that staying out is just a pointless and inconvenient gesture.
O/T Catch Rob Brydon’s Identity Crisis? Thought you “ugly pugnacious trolls” came out quite well.
The more I think about Blair promising a referendum the more his strategy makes sense.
1 - It took Europe out of the 2005 election. He knew how weak Labour was likely to poll and it might have made the difference between a 66 majority and a much smaller one.
2 - Strengthened his hand in European negotiations “Well you know we are having a referendum, really need an opt out on these if we are to win it”. This worked over Lisbon in getting his red-lines through (I’ll have to have a referendum unless…)
3 - If referendum was lost he knew that it bought the European Train to a halt while Europe attempted to recover and set out a modified path. Potentially difficult new European initiatives on back burner for another few years.
4 - If he won a referendum then he could play the European demi-god again.
Brown may well get Lisbon through but at a cost in terms of public credibility, maybe marginal but each 0.5% of voters matters. Worse still all those initiatives will make an early return. Common immigration policy, taxation, police, changes to economic policies and CAP. Suddenly in 2009 Brown will be engulfed in Europe, not somewhere he seems comfortable. He should have gone for a referendum because even losing it would keep Europe out of UK politics for most of his remaining term.
66. Lets wait and see Jack. I’m not buying the oracles for sale at the moment.
Tomorrow will be decisive because if Hillary loses its over though it was probably over after Maine. If she closes the delegate gap then shes in for at least another a month and by then we should have the FL & MI issues sorted one way or another.
61. 62. Many eurosceptics, myself included, have started from a position of holding a mildly positive, idealism-driven attitude to the EU.
Our positions were changed by exposure to the disturbingly messianic and/or appallingly cynical attitudes of many of its prime supporters. By their open contempt for the wishes of the peoples of Europe.
By their disgraceful authoritarian behaviour in attempting to stifle dissent against ‘the project’.
And of course by the horrific corruption and utterly dysfunctional nature of many EU policies - the CAP, the CFP, market regulation etc.
69 - Manifesto promises are broken all the time and I’m glad they are. Politicians have to deal with events as they unfold. If the UK were to stand alone in vetoing Lisbon it would do huge damage to British interests as it fights its causes in Brussels.
Britain in partnership with the likes of Sarko, Merkel and Eastern European countries could be running the show. But the little Englander europhobes don’t want to get their hands dirty. Very sad for us and the world.
70 - And that children is an example of “displaced anger”
76 - Sarko has said he is not happy with the CAP. The reason the CAP exists in its current monstrous form is because the UK was not in the EEC when it was created.
64. piechucker: “The referendum defeats in 2005 should be the dawn of a new EU that Britain would be ideally placed to lead”
Well that sounds like a pretty big change to me. It sounds like the EU we joined has fundamentally altered - as you say, this is “the dawn of a new EU”.
Given that it is such a vast change to the EU we joined, you will therefore be happy for us to have a vote on whether we wish to be part of this new EU. Right? Mmm? Right?
Idiot.
As a matter of interest, why are all europhile arguments so lamentably feeble and dishonest? It’s like they’re not even trying. I think even I could come up with some better arguments than some of the usual pro-EU piffle, like these embarrassingly asinine fibs from piechucker.
My guess is they don’t even believe it themselves any more. They just go through the motions. They are like modern Anglican bishops trying to explain what happens in Hell.
77. Ah I see we are back to the standard lame Foreign Office/European Movement argument ‘we have to do whatever the EU tells us or we will lose influence…’
A pitiful, cowardly, and mendacious line - as it always was.
79 Whereas SeanT you sound like a firebrand deep south Evangelical, offering easy solutions and faith healing for the right price. I know which I prefer.
Brown’s aids should shut up, them constantly leaking information to the press about ana election late last year helped damage him to this extent, and how can they be happy with this stabilisation? The situation can only get worse as the tories push more and more policies out while labour dither and worry.
Ladbrokes latest is 2/5 Clinton 7/4 Obama for Ohio.
The welter of Canadian Dollars have been solely responsible for this shift.
Come On BHO!
68 Bringing a 2009 election into play gives Gordon a couple more options for bottling it….
73. Simply not true. Sign up for iris recognition and you waltz through UK immigration in about three seconds, whether you are coming back from Sweden, Slovenia or El Salvador.
Schengen is irrelevant.
And I do do a fair amount of travelling…!
78. And after 35 years the CAP remains substantially unchanged - so membership has achieved nothing in this area. Where is the ‘influence’ of which we are so often told?
Must we perhaps wait another 50 years to do away with a wasteful and inefficient policy which we need never have signed up to in the first place?
65.”Personally, I do consider it significant that 133,000 people in 10 constituencies should care enough about this issue to respond.”
That result will make uncomfortable reading for some MP’s in marginal seats. It could also cause difficulties for both Labour and the Libdems by strengthening the will of those rebelling, even if they are in seats with a healthy majority?
77 “If the UK were to stand alone in vetoing Lisbon it would do huge damage to British interests as it fights its causes in Brussels.”
Give me just one concrete example of this “huge damage”. This toss is the politics of fear, done badly. Cuz I’m quaking in my boots at the prospect, really…
69 - Manifesto promises are broken all the time and I’m glad they are”
Well, to quote Sean T “you have all the political principles of a flesh-eating virus.”
88, just look how the Dutch and French have suffered since they voted no.
A very good analysis of the forthcoming Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty this Summer:
http://tinyurl.com/3×499e
Democracy is alive and well in Ireland!
85 Iris recognition?
There is a rather large lady called Iris, who sits behind the desk at Heathrow T3, who personally knows all the regular travelers and nods them through.
79/80 Would you agree that politics in Westminister and Whitehall sometimes gets a bit dirty, shady and sometimes corrupt? Do our politicians horse-trade and do things they don’t believe in to achieve other ends? But do you not think that on the whole UK politics needs examining and changing but ultimately needs our support? Well I feel the same about the EU.
Come on Britain; rise like lions after slumber!
“A referendum cannot now be held, because it is unwinnable, losing 75%-plus of the vote.”
NOT MY POSITION - TRYING TO EXPLAIN THE WARPED MIND OF INSTITUTIONAL EUROPHILES IN THE UK.
They have backed themselves into a corner by trying to escape the original promise of a referendum - they were agnostic on referenda before, now it is not an option for them, because they only play f they can win.
I THINK THERE SHOULD BE A REFERENDUM, EVEN (ESPECIALLY?) IF THEY INCLUDE INVASION OF SWITZERLAND AS PART OF THE PLATFORM.
Just wanted to make that crystal - sorry for shouting.
89 - Exactly. Not at all.
yawn
More EC tripe.
Boringly predictable.
As for the argument that Governments always break manifesto promises, that’s cynicism of the highest order. No wonder voters don’t vote when they get a chance to.
And we criticise Putin for being undemocratic. At least with Putin, what you see is what you get. With Labour, you get whatever we feel like at the time.
Insane.
And then we have the gall to criticse the EU for being undemocratic.
Pots and kettles.
89. Note also the way that Norway has economically collapsed since voting against membership, and the way in which the UK, Danish and Swedish economies have all folded following their decisions to stay out of the euro.
Time and again the predictions of doom europhiles trot out if country A or B dares to defy the will of ‘Europe’ are proved to be ridiculous scaremongering.
Yet every time such a decision point approaches, the same dishonest attempts to scare the voters into voting the ‘right’ way are used.
90 - Democracy alive and well in Ireland? they’ve pretty much had one party rule for decades. Charles Haughey stole millions from the Irish people and got off scot free. But at least they have a referendum on the EU. Doh!
81. I am the Obama of euroscepticism! The audacity of hope! Hallelujah!
Actually its interesting to parse US candidates by where they would be on eurospectrum.
Obama is obviously eurosceptic. Wants the people to have their say. Trusts democracy. Can’t see him lying like the Lib Dems and Labour on such a major constitutional issue as this. He is a Harvard Constitutional Scholar!
Clinton is a quintessential europhile. Pragmatic. Do what works. A Washington/Brussels insider. Ruthless. Prepared to ignore the people (”these states don’t count”) when she wants. A liar.
McCain is a moderate eurosceptic. Patriotic, but possibly sees the value of co-operation.
Edwards is a rare idealist europhile: like Peter the Punter. Believes in Europe but sticks to his democratic principles and would accept the people’s verdict if they said No.
Giuliani is yer standard europhile. Devious and basically unpopular. A streak of nastiness. Clever and occasionally bold but shies away from actual elections. When he does face them he gets whipped, like the EU in referenda.
Huckabee is UKIP. Romantic but mad.
94 - Unless you take the imposition of almost hte self-same document that they rejected as suffering.
96 - Norway is a tiny petro-economy with no hope of leading the EU in a more liberal direction. Does the UK want to lead or follow?
[85] I admire your confidence in the ability of the system to protect your privacy. I refuse to sign up for iris recognition on principle, as I would not sign up for a UK ID card on principle. It is a further erosion of privacy- and, as all the other countries in Schengen show, it is not necessary. After the various breakdowns in government handling of confidential information in the last few months I prefer to be prudent.
97 - Fianna Fáil hegemony or the corruption of Haughey / Ahern et al are not good arguments against the vibrancy of democracy in Ireland - the fact that the result of the Irish referendum on Lisbon will be ignored unless it is a ‘yes’ probably is.
102 didnt a resolution to respect the result of the Irish referendum fail to get passed in Brussels? any no vote would be ignored.
103 - That’s correct. Ok it was grandstanding by some on the ‘no’ side but it’s still indicative of the respect that “Europe” has for the views of the Irish electorate. None.
Bong!! Cameron says, ‘One third of ministers will be women’
Bong!!! Cameron to attend civil partnership
http://tinyurl.com/27xytw
Bong!!! ‘Cameron IS the anti-Christ’ says Simon Heffer.
95.”And we criticise Putin for being undemocratic. At least with Putin, what you see is what you get. With Labour, you get whatever we feel like at the time.” :LOL:
100.”96 - Norway is a tiny petro-economy with no hope of leading the EU in a more liberal direction. Does the UK want to lead or follow?”
Maybe Norway just accepts that you can’t make a pink pig fly no matter what spin you put on it?
O/T The Telegraph is reporting that Fifty MPs sack staff after expenses scandal.
100. This is the other nonsense argument the European Movement trots out - that Britain can somehow ‘lead’ Europe, or in a more watered-down format the ‘Europe is going Britain’s way’.
It’s a leftover from the arguments distraught imperialists used in the 1950s and 1960s, which suggested Britain could somehow recover its world influence by EU membership.
But even the most cursory look at the evidence shows it to be untrue. After 35 years of membership, all the most unpalatable aspects of EU membership, from a UK perspective, remain intact.
Indeed, more and more damaging legislation is imposed on the UK every year.
Meanwhile the supposed benefit which makes all this worthwhile - free trade - has been extended not only to European countries oustide the EU, but to countries like Mexico, with no EU links at all.
On the world stage, Britain has remained the medium-sized power it was a generation ago, by stint of its excellent armed forces and its strategic alliance with the US. Little has changed.
So our EU membership has been economically futile, and politically has achieved nothing in terms of increasing Britain’s worldwide influence.
100. We don’t want to lead the EU. We don’t want to follow the EU.
We just want to be ourselves. To govern ourselves. To live in our own democracy. To honour our own demoCratic traditions. To not be ruled by an unelected politburo. To not be subject to a fraudulent and corrupt parliament, for which no one votes, staffed by civil servants with legal immunity.
We just want this: to not have to submit to laws we cannot repeal, concocted in a method we cannot underdstand, enacted by people we never voted for, devised in a language not our own, and enforced by a supreme court over which we have no control.
How F***ING DIFFICULT IS THAT FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND YOU STUPID LYING MONKEY-SUCKER?
Apologies for the capitals. But you do seem a little dim, so I thought shouting might help.
105. does anyone listen to simon heffer?
88 - the debate about the future of the CAP and the structural funds is starting now. Until recently we have had an EU of 15 over which the French via the Germans have held sway. The EU of 27 is a totally different animal. But by rejecting Lisbon we would lose force of argument. That is how it works.
I want to see the CAP scrapped as much as you do because it destroys wealth. Brits should want a richer more dynamic market in which to sell its goods/services.
No it would not lead to anything dramatic happening if we were not involved but we have the chance to make the EU fulfill its potential. That would have significant, incremental benefits for everyone.
98 seanT. No dear friend - you are the ‘Audacity of a No-Hoper’.
In short - you are the Ralph Nader of euroscepticisism !!
111, except the referendum has 87% support in the UK, rather more than Nader has in the US.
108 SeanT are you a member of Plaid Cymru or the SNP, you sound like one?
97 - “Dublin: Been there, done that, bought the Teaoseaich”
110…..and finally, the last lame argument ‘a bigger EU will not accept the CAP/Federalism/whatever and will be a force for change’
Again the empirical evidence disproves this. We have had several rounds of enlargement since 1973, but the worst aspects of the EU remain untouched. And the drive towards a United States of Europe has become ever stronger, with Lisbon the latest installment.
This shouldn’t be surprising. The governing elites in most of the new members are as fully signed up the end-point of full political union as those in the original members. Anyone thinking otherwise is deluding him or herself.
108 - OK fine, it you think the UK should be an uninfluential backwater with nothing much to say to anyone then you’re right. Personally I think the UK has much to be gained financially and in terms of morality by spreading its liberal economic and liberal democratic ideas.
You, though, don’t seem to care much more than where you next “happy finish” is coming from.
114 - Anyone else in Dublin on Saturday?
109. Dunno - he might stand for UKIP leader if Farage gets chopped after the expenses scandal.
112 Morris dancer. Oh you mean the poll organized by the North Korean Polling Institute !! ….. Mmmmmhmhmh.
114 Morus.
115 - the constitution was Chiracs’s price for accepting enlargement. Chriac, thank god, is history. The future is now
105.”Bong!!! ‘Cameron IS the anti-Christ’ says Simon Heffer.”
I am pretty sure that some Telegraph readers would be bereft if Heffer did not trot this line out on a weekly basis.
116, you’re off your rocker.
A backwater, with the 4th largest economy in the world, a nuclear fleet, a seat on the UN security council? Funny sort of backwater.
119, no, the one with more participants than an average local election.
Oh, I see. Unless a poll gives the ‘right’ answer it doesn’t count. Silly me, I forgot how eurorules work.
On refection, SeanT is clearly a member of Mebyon Kernow.
http://www.mebyonkernow.org/
But between us, I suspect he’s not entirely happy that Truro is so closely aligned to Penzance.
110. Hey, pigface, you should make that the slogan when we gave the referendum on the Constitution:
Vote Yes because “it would have significant, incremental benefits for everyone.”
That’s a real winner. Your only problem is that we’re not going to have a referendum, because europhiles are cowards covered with hairy leprous warts who daren’t even show their faces to the people.
111. JackW, I shall respond to you in full when you make a remark that comes at least within the gravitational field of intelligence.
123 Morris dancer. Polls count if they have credible methodololgy NOT dodgy incredibility !!
126. Only people calling it dodgy have a vested interested in calling it so.
125 seanT. Slapped down by seanT over ‘intelligence’ in the same post as he names another contributor ‘pigface’.
Oh the irony !!!!!!!!!!!!!
121. I see. So Sarkozy is going to scrap the idea and declare himself in favour a looser EU, is he? Very amusing.
He and most of his fellow European leaders have a end goal in sight which is more integrated, and most respects less liberal both economically and politically than current arrangements.
We can delude ourselves that we can stop this process if we want - as we have done for much of the last 35 years - or we can wake up, bid farewell, and try to get on with nurturing liberal and democratic institutions at home. God knows they need some nurturing.
If we make a success of the latter, that will have far more ‘moral’ influence on countries around the world than our continued, failed, membership of the EU will.
109
Most of the Tories I know, hang onto his every word, my sister-in-law thinks he’s a God. Mind you! she’s convinced being gay is an illnes for which the only sure cure, is the Edward the second solution. As I always say, if you think she’s right wing you never met her late husband, he was hardwired into the Daily Mail.
114 - The original was even funnier - it started off as “Ben there, Dunne that, bought the Taoiseach” after the downfall of the scion of the retail empire (following a drugs / prostitution scandal in Florida) led to the revelation that Ben Dunne had been bankrolling Charles Haughey to the tune of hundreds of thousands of pounds.
127 There’s nothing incredible about such statistics. In fact, they don’t differ that much from most opinion polls on the subject.
126, credible methodology? They posed a question and 133,000 people replied. Are you suggesting they used the wrong font?
127 cuddles. Oh Pleeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaazzzzzzze !!!!!!!!
That ‘poll’ has as much value as the Bank of Zimbabwe !!!!!!!!
123 - um yes - so if the EU threatened to introduce rules that would put the City of London at a disadvantage we could threaten Brussels with our nukes. I hadn’t though of that
110 - John Major was always a hero of mine - I loved his rhetorical style.
131 I sometimes sympathise with his views, but find his constant negativity very wearying. It would be interesting to see what sort of response he’d get if he did write an article calling for the execution of homosexuals.
135 Because it came up with an answer you dislike?
131 - Classic!
134. Grow up Jack. You simply don’t want to accept the message from this or any other poll on the subject. If it was a different message you wouldn’t be blowing these feeble raspberries at it.
135, ah, being deliberately obtuse or unintentionally random? My point is that you claimed we would be a backwater without the colossal power of France, Germany and Estonia behind us, and that is utter nonsense.
133 Morris dancer. I suggest, at any early age, someone had their head banged in the font !!
134 “That ‘poll’ has as much value as the Bank of Zimbabwe”
LOL! That is one to cut out and keep.
140 - my point is (again) that the UK has a chance to turn the EU into a functioning beacon of liberalism. But it can only do this if it engages
Enough about Europe already!
143, engaging does not mean agreeing with whatever the EU wants.
139 runnymede. I’ve always taken the view, until recently the Conservative Party view, that the referendum had no place in the British constitution.
I haven’t changed. Political parties use the ruse of calling for a referendum when they think they’ll win in order to enhance their policy on the issue.
I think its worrying that an Irish leader shows so little confidence in the Euro that he prefers his briefcases to be filled with Sterling or US Dollars…
143 - I love the Cnut like faith that Europhiles have that they can somehow stem the tide.
“the ruse”
So, we should consider Labour and Lib Dem manifestos to be a book of tricks rather than a catalogue of solemn promises?
143. No, it doesn’t. That’s not the way the Europeans want to go, as a generation of evidence has shown. Nor is there any sign whatever that this attitude is changing.
The best way we can spread liberal values is by applying them thoroughly at home and demonstrating their political and economic benefit, not by engaging in further futile attempts to turnaround the illiberal supertanker that is the political philosophy behind the EU…
…an attempt which is in the UK actually eroding the very liberal economic and political institutions you claim to be so in favour of.
126. JackW, a word of advice.
When aiming for humour and insight in posts try and avoid remarks that are puerile, inane, tedious, predictable, and - worst of all - so desperately unfunny yet-trying-to-be-funny they induce a kind of bleak existential despair in the reader.
I know, I know. I’m nitpicking.
148 Oi! Who are you calling a Cnut.
130. Thats odd, my family is a tory one, and they can’t stand Heffer, never have been able. Even my grandad, who was a thatcherite, couldnt stand him.
134. okie doke, discredit it then.
Perhaps we should have a PB.com paintball day - philes vs sceptics ?
143 “UK has a chance to turn the EU into a functioning beacon of liberalism”
Toss. It is not what the EU was ever intended to be by the cabal that run it for their own betterment. Get a set of independently audited accounts signed off without an xxx billion provision for corruption - and have them let in Muslim Turkey - and you might start convincing me the EU isn’t at heart a monument to corruption and illiberalism. And to think the UK can chamge it - when Neil Kinnock was such a defender of the status quo - defies optimism and is heading towards the comfort zone of the padded cell.
147 - Ah, but the Euro didnt exist back then - if it had done there would be even more fun and frolics for the bankers to go through and possibly even a further permutation for Ahern to present to the Tribunal in order to justify the cash trail. But we’ll probably lose everyone else if we go into that too deeply. The only betting angle I can think of is that I expect Cowan to be Taoiseach before the end of the year.
147 But referenda have been a feature of our constitution since the Welsh began voting on Sunday Opening, nearly fifty years ago.
&nb