211 Previous Thread (sorry if marginally off thread)Ladbrokes’ “Correct Score” odds on Hillary winning 3-1 in the four states voting tomorrow have been reduced from 4/1 to 3/1 over the past hour.
reposted from last tread and O/T - Does anyone else bet on F1?
I’m going to repeat my tip of Kovalainen - Currently 14/1 on betfair - I already filled my boots with him on ladbrokes a few months ago at 12/1 and have no more spare cash. Given that he is in one of only 2 cars and can win it and therefore one of only 3 drivers that can win it it looks good to me…
“252 - There’s no point having a narrative if it’s shot full of plot holes and improbabilities. Clinton will look crazy if she tries to claim that she is not really losing (look at Huckabee) and nobody will elect a crazy president (well, at least not for the third time in a row).
100 delegates is a massive difference at this stage, if you are losing 1-0 with 45 minutes to go then okay, but Clinton is losing 1-0 and we are already in the last five minutes of normal time. She cannot make up the difference without winning the rest at an average of 60/40 (with things at their most favourable for her). Only a massive scandal could sink Obama now.
Whoever gets the most delegates from the pledged delegates wins, the superdelegates will commit electoral suicide if they go against that. If there was a market to bet on saying that they wouldn’t overturn the popular delegate count I would lump a fair amount on it (if the odds were good!)
Clinton is a poor second favourite, she cannot win this apart from by foul methods or by a complete implosion of Obama.”
A respite from SeanT! No more book titles or EU constitutions. Hallelujah! How about ‘Topkapi’? Too late. What a shame! ‘411 Pera Palace’ an homage to a real thriller writer set in Istanbul? OK that’s my lot.
I hear Obama is in trouble? Some corrupt dealing in Chicago. I look forward to Hillary’s new attack ad ‘Obama-gate’
6, I saw a little of that on the news. Apparently the corrupt guy has helped out Obama (such as with funding to all his campaigns) but there’s no suggestion of impropriety on Obama’s part.
However, having a friend who’s a crook doesn’t look good.
5. Did you see Channel4 News? An Obama implosion is possible. It depends how this thing runs. If it was the UK it would run and run even if it didn’t amount to anything at the end.
5. 264. Bizarre, and hopelessly inaccurate, maths from you there ukpaul lol! Clinton is 100 shy of Obama. There are still 981 delegates to go, and then the super-delegates. She does not need to win 60-40 from here at all. She needs to take the remaining delegates by just under 55% to Obama’s 45% to go ahead into the convention. In terms of delegate count with Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania accounting for half the remaining delegates she could easily be ahead come June 7th.
That’s without Florida. And it’s without the super-delegates. Hillary Clinton is in with a real chance.
10 - Your maths is devoid of reality. Look at North Carolina, Oregon, Mississippi etc etc. You imagine that she can win the same there as in Ohio and Texas? Given that, the states where things are favourable for her she needs to win she needs to win 60/40.
£50 evens that Obama gets the nomination, take it or leave it.
10 Richard. Do you understand how the delegate allocation works in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania ?? … add to the mix the remaining states and you’ll understand why ukpaul and I take the position we do.
Seen this? FWIW My money is on the ‘middle way’ Autumn 2009
‘“We all know that 2010 would be the worst possible option. It makes it look like we are desperate – clinging on,” one minister told the FT.
“The best option would be the spring of 2009 with the fallback position as autumn 2009. Leaving it until the following year would only be a last resort.”
14. I think I do understand your position, and I think it has little to do with US political reality, and nothing to do with Maths. Prepare for a shock!
13. UKPaul 50 quid beyond my betting level in a straight bet, but I would certainly bet you a tenner he doesn’t get it. Of course, this isn’t exactly great odds from you because I can still get 3-1 or more on Hillary from the bookies. I suspect your offer of evens reflects your growing nervousness about your man’s position …
10. Actually Obama is ahead by 157 in pledged delegates. Texas’ strange rules should split delegates fairly evenly. Even a big win for her in Ohio should, at best, be matched by South Carolina going Obama’s way. So she’s depending on racking up huge wins in Pennsylvania (158 delegates), Kentucky (51) and West Virginia (28), as well as scraping wins in Oregon and Indiana, which are Obama-favourable territory. And that’s just to put her close enough for it to be considered anything like a tie going into the convention.
Of course, the superdelegates could always overturn it, but there’s no evidence that they would. Many have said that they should not overturn the will of the people, and not one senior figure has endorsed Clinton’s “independent judgment” argument. Add in the fact that superdelegates are under pressure to endorse which way their state/district went, and that people like Gore and Dean are surely Obama supporters, its looking very unlikely.
Ignore that Dick he has no head for numbers and a mean streak wider than the yellow band on the back of the average osamabomber.
He knows nothing about US politics and needs to write about matters he understands. Now I’m back into our Florida garden, [note: not yard] to our warm sunshine, and Theodore White’s “Breach of Faith.”
16 Richard. Ok old chap, we’ll leave you in your twilight world where Hillary somehow conjures up a massive delegate haul from Guam and …….er Canada ?????
16 -
You said “It’s going to the wire and I would almost now make Hillary favourite.” That shouts out evens to me, I’m calling your bluff. If you don’t want the odds, don’t lay the odds.
A tenner will do but it’s not as much fun. PtP are you around?
Richard you are so throwing you’re money at ukpaul! You’d be very wise to go check the subtleties of delegate apportionment before waging any more money on Hillary dear boy.
There’s just no way she will come out ahead on delegate count anywhere on Wednesday even by coming out ahead in the popular vote. Still it’s your money and losing is a good learning experience!
23 - Well, of course he won’t be the nomination of the ‘democractic party’!
Put simply, if Obama is the Democratic Party’s candidate for president I win £10, if he isn’t then you win £10. If he gets shot, poisoned or otherwise disposed of then the bet is void (stay away from Deeley Plaza).
28. Ah … you see, now you deprive me of several get-outs. You said nothing about him getting shot previously. However, so as to avoid the macabre I accept your bet on the terms set out there.
For the record, those are still lousy odds compared to the 3-1 you can still get on Hillary. Looks favourable to me.
By the way, unfortunately I think this may run and run right through to Denver. The only winner in that scenario is John McCain.
n Texas James with the advantage Obama has in the apportionment to the African-American and Liberal-White congressional districts she is probably looking at needing a 6-4 split. That does not even take into account what’s going to happen in the caucus in the evening which will heavily favour Obama as all the others have done.
Ot
but Nulab getting nickers in a twist over the Today programme.
Sorry if its been posted before.
Strikes me this shows signs of being somewhat rattled
Anthony Wells says ICM contadicts Mori on LDs/Referendum.
ICM…67%[as opposed to 30%] of LDs want a vote on the Treaty.
ICM…70% want a two questioner [as opposed to 7%].
Anyway if you are interested..
can we read anything into the fact that all these polls showing clinton with a big (10%) leads in ohio were taken over the weekend? really leaps out at me from the rcp polls page
same with texas, two polls showing clinton with big (5%) leads were taken exclusively over the weekend, don’t we tend to view polls taken over holiday periods with suspicion?
39 A little touchy - reminiscent of Hillary and the cushion for Obama. Bad sign for Labour (as it as when Wilson did it, and for Conservatives when Thatcher did and Major did).
39. I do agree that some parts of the media are very soft on Cameron. However, I think that putting it in an open letter like that does smack a bit of desperation.
39. Pathetic, whinging about why their not asking certain questions is a certain sign of nitpicking, and perhaps an attempt to make the media out to be pro-cameron.
50. Clinton currently has the mo’. Whether it’s enough to take both Ohio and Texas some will doubt, but I think she will, and I suspect the scale of her victory (in Ohio especially) may surprise some. We’ll see!
At least Cameron’s answers have some relevance to the questions asked. Brown might be”happy” to be questioed on a range of subjects but I can’t really remember him answering with anything but “itwasrightiforeconomicstabilitytomakedifficulthardchoiceforlongterm”
58. I love your take, and lack of it, Jack. You carefully avoid noting that even that tracker is a slide for Obama - seeing his lead cut from 8% to 5%.
It’s clear going into the final day that she has the momentum. Late swings often produce fascinating results (UK 1992 being the great classic of course). It’s going to be extremely exciting tomorrow.
The polls are clearly trending Hillary, some by a decent margin. However a new Zogby/Reuters poll has Obama ahead, I think his first lead in Ohio.
Do we accept the majority view of the polls or the clear evidence that recent polls understate Obama’s final figures. If the latter does it cancel out Hillary’s poll lead ???
My advice on Ohio is that unless you need to hedge then avoid.
Question is how will this impact the political class? What will the MPs in these constituencies do knowing that approximately 30% of their net registered electorate oppose a treaty that they will sign into law without a second thought?
What will the Tories do? If they can’t exploit this I’m sorry to say they’re not fit for office, or even fit to recieve their MPs salary.
Constituencies polled:
Aberconwy
Bolton West
East Renfrewshire
Eastleigh (despite Chris Huhne’s traitorous lies - again)
Gedling
Hammersmith
Harlow
Pudsey
Redditch
Somerton & Frome
Full text:
I Want a Referendum today announced the results of ten referendums which have been running in ten marginal constituencies. The referendums have been carried out for IWR by Electoral Reform Services - a leading firm of independent election scrutineers recognised by the United Nations, the British Government, and used by all the three main parties for their internal elections.
Despite several of the sitting MPs leafleting constituents telling them not to vote, the referendums have led to an unprecedented response from voters.
Key results:
* Stunningly, 152,520 people voted across just ten parliamentary constituencies. Of these 133,251 voted for a referendum.
* Even though the poll was unofficial, the 36.2% turnout means that a higher proportion of people voted in these unofficial referendums than in real elections in their local area. The average turnout for local elections (when not held with general elections) since 1996 is 35.4%. The average turnout in referendums on directly elected mayors - including in London - is 30.1%.
* This is the highest ever turnout in such an unofficial ballot.
* Voters were asked two questions:
Should the hold a national referendum on the EU’s Treaty?
88% voted yes and 12% voted no. Less than 1% did not answer.
Should the approve the EU’s Treaty?
89% voted against the Treaty and 8% voted in favour. 3% did not answer.
* In eight of the ten seats a greater proportion of people voted for a referendum than voted for the sitting MP. On average the sitting MPs won 27.5% of the available vote. But of those balloted in this campaign, 31.2% voted for a national referendum.
58 Richard. I’ve listed dozens of polls over the past five days and as a ‘Smithson’ (rule of thumb) I don’t comment unless there is something noteworthy about the poll.
59. Jack W. Well I’ve just tried to hedge by backing Hillary at 1/2 to win Ohio with Bet365. I attempted a reasonable sized bet but they have only allowed me their maximum bet. I have been allowed £2 to win £1!
9 - This story has been being reported for some time now over in the states, it’s reemerged because Rezkco’s trial is now due to begin, it’s bad timing for Obama… but a harbinger of an implosion? Hardly.
Unlike many other politicians, Cameron has deliberately tried to woo the bbc. He said in a speech last year:
“Another institution we can all be proud of is the BBC. The British Broadcasting Corporation was founded by a Scotsman and is the most prestigious broadcaster on earth. People around the world tune into the BBC for news they can trust. The BBC also reminds us of our common culture.”
This is a very different tack from many on the right who (like Labour now are) accuse it of bias and say the license fee should be scrapped. Not everyone at the bbc is convinced by Cameron though. Strangely it is some of those on the right of the bbc (Nick Robinson and Andrew Neil) who appear to be the biggest doubters.
55.
Can’t say I have seen any sign of it on the Today programme [but then I am not at my best at 6:30].
Humphreys was once so aggressive with DC that I felt like contacting them [sad, I know, but true].
In the end I concluded Humpers had come over so badly, it probably backfired.
Didn’t someone on this site say the announcement re prison today had been put out at 6 on the BBC as ‘Tories paying prisoners’.
May be we all see what we don’t want to sometimes.
I have detected a real change in the Times, also, but less so, the Sun. Likewise Sky News Blog. As Ashley says, there seems to be a real perception in the media that the ideas/energy is with the Tories.
There is a real danger in Gordon being seen to nick anything.
How can it be ’student politics’ if he can’t do any better?
66. Just pointing out that you didn’t show the % shift. What’s fascinating about that is that it’s a tracker, and as Gallup point out it reveals a very significant move to Clinton in the Sunday polling to make the tracker move all of 3% in her favour. Remember that trackers are normally less volatile, though they are also less reliable. The section that was lost was almost certainly a pro-Obama lurch, but even so Clinton is really in business tomorrow.
Looking in from a meing in Bern via mobile, so just two quick comments from my pro-Hillary corner:
1. Obama fans have made much of his doing better vs McCain in theoretical matchups. While I’ve never put much store in hypothetical questions, note that the poll on the last thread shows the reverse.
2. The arithmetical argument won’t stick if Obama is seen as seriously behind after a blunder or scandal. The superdelegates will recoil in that situation.
I do think Obama will get the nomination but it’s not quite over.
51 - I’ve never expected that Obama would take OH and i dont think he will tommorow, a slight trend to Clinton over the weekend seems to have emerged which should reinforce her position in OH (where she has never been behind in the polls), TX is more interesting as that has looked very competative for the last few weeks, absentee ballots (which, in contrast to NH and CA, could favour Obama) might prove important… either way the degree to which Clinton has been outspent would make an Obama slip up in TX pretty tough to explain (regardless of the ground his campaign has made up over the last fortnight or so - closing from wide Clinton leads in both states).
Doesn’t say, but 36% is a high turnout regardless for a ‘non-binding’ vote. That many people bothered to fill in the forms necessary to have their opinion counted despite the fact it would probably not be reported.
57 - Confirms the Rasmussen poll I highlighted earlier today showing that Clinton remains solidly above 40% nationally.
51 - Clinton doesn’t have the ‘mo. She has lost more than 10 contests in a row and seen her margins in her two firewall states eroded virtually completely. Today have seen a series of good polls but the movement is relatively small. It shows she has fight left in her, not that she wil win.
She is likely to win Ohio but Texas is a complete toss-up. It is tremendously difficult to poll becaus eof its size and diversity. Turnout models will likely account for many of the differences between the polls.
A couple of interesting bits from SUSA - 48% of their sample have voted already (Clinton +2). That seems on the high side. Hispanics (32%) outnumber Blacks (17%). This would favour Clinton. Obama is the slight favourite in Texas (in terms of PV) because I reckon his ground game will be superior but Clinton has a decent chance. One thing that could cripple her is high levels of independent turnout.
On the Ukpaul-Richard discussion - I don’t see a way for Clinton to regain the pledged delegate lead. Her only hope is to win the PV. She is currently 900,000 behind. If she wins Texas by 5 and Ohio by 10 (probably her best-case scenario) my very back of the envelope calculation has the lead down to 500-600k. That could not be recovered in the remaining primaries. See Socrates on the previous thread explaining that Clinton is unlikely to have a significant edge. However she could perhaps half that advantage in a best case scenario leaving her 300k behind. Then she would need Florida and Michigan to be rerun and win both states by 55-45, putting her maybe 50k ahead.
In summary she needs to win as well as possible tomorrow AND outperform in the remaining primaries AND get Michigan and Florida to rerun all at the time when the Dems will want to unite and independents will be free to cross over from a meaningful GOP race. In other words she has a very uphill struggle.
66 stjohn. That’s not a hedge but a nibble on a leaf !!
71 Richard. Normally these trackers do move slowly. However both the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers have had more large jumps in them than the ‘Grand National’
In the short term I tend to place them in the ‘bit of fun’ category. However they are more useful in showing longer term trends IMO.
Its so hard to read, but surely the trend is with her at the moment. My guess is she will win Ohio by more than 10% and Texas pretty big too - maybe up to 10%. On this basis it looks completely ridiculous that he is 5 to 1 on. If she wins these 2 big States decisively she must have got a good chance of winning.
Barack Obama has made up tremendous ground in both Ohio and Texas, but Hillary Clinton continues to prevent him from pulling away with a steady lead. Both races are deadlocked, according to the polls, and new data from Mason-Dixon have some troubling news for Obama’s campaign.
Obama’s supporters aren’t as solid in their support as Clinton’s are in Texas. Eleven percent of voters statewide say they may still change their mind, and Obama’s supporters make up the majority of those respondents. In Ohio, both candidates have similar levels of resolute support.
More bad news when we turn our attention to favorability ratings. Obama’s unfavorables are significantly higher than Clinton’s in both states. When voters were asked whether they had a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Obama and Clinton, Obama “leads” Clinton on unfavorability ratings by seven points. In Texas, one-quarter of respondents have an unfavorable view of Obama. Seventeen percent say the same about Clinton. This may suggest Clinton supporters are more disillusioned with Obama than Obama supporters are of Clinton.
59 Wow, I hadn’t seen the latest Zogby poll showing Obama ahead in Ohio - it really is a mixed bag, although the odds aren’t moving that much in either of the two major states.
I’m just wondering whether there might be some element of a sympathy vote for Hillary tomorrow - a sort of yes, she’s going out, but let’s do it gently.
69. Popular politicians tend to get an easier ride because they tend to be popular for a reason (or there’s a lack of reasons for them being unpopular). More commonly, unpopular politicians tend to be unpopular because they’ve done something the public / press / others don’t like, which gives the media something to get their teeth into.
There is tons of stuff for the media to have a go at Labour about - there usually is for the government, and especially a government that has been in office for nearly eleven years. There is much less to take Cameron on over, probably deliberately so.
For Richard’s benefit, the weather forecast in Ohio is particulalrly foul - 2″-4″ of freezing rain. So this will be a test - who has the most dedicated supporters to go out (and stand in line?) in that.
My money would be on Obama’s young base rather than Hillary’s over 60’s.
And it looks like the counting in Ohio may be mighty slow - paper ballots - with expectations that it may go on into the night US time - so maybe breakfast for us? Expect Hillary to race into a tidy early rural-based lead, with Obama then creeping back as the urban areas start to deliver their much larger (and so slower) counts.
My reference to momentum is in regard to the polls, where she’s evidentially got a move going. Some of you may think it not enough, but if she takes 3 of tomorrow’s contests she is right back in this, make no mistake.
Taken from the DD website - some internals re Clinton.
From PPP’s analysis:
‘Obama has not seen the same level of support from young people in Ohio that he has benefited from in other states. He leads Clinton only 49-46 among voters aged 18-29 and trails 48-44 with respondents 30-45.
Although he has the same high level of support from African Americans that he has tended to enjoy (75-18), his gap among white voters is considerable. Clinton has a 59-34 advantage with that group. […]
A particular problem for Obama is limited support among male voters, who he has dominated in states where he has done well. In Ohio he leads that group just 47-46.
Survey USA has some interesting analysis about one of the reasons for her resurgence and the geographic dynamics of her support in the state:
In SurveyUSA’s data: the 16 minutes that Clinton spent arguing with Obama about health care at this week’s NBC News debate appears to have paid off. Slightly more voters now name health care as the most important issue, and among those who do, Clinton today leads by 24 points, up from a 7-point lead last week. In greater Cincinnati, Clinton had trailed in two previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, but today leads by 19 points. In greater Dayton, the swing is smaller, but also to Clinton. In Southeast Ohio, Clinton has always led, but now leads overwhelmingly. If you combine these 3 regions and draw them on a map, they form a horseshoe, and trace the Ohio boundary that touches red-state Indiana on the West, red-state Kentucky on the South and red state West Virginia on the East. At this hour, that horseshoe is functioning as Clinton’s firewall.’
Jack W - do not trust Zogby. They had a terrible record on ST. There last pol had Obama up 13 in CA, Clinton won by 10. If Obama wins Ohio then they may regain some of their reputation (then again even a broken clock is right twice a day) but I don’t see it.
For those seeking to find some value between different bets, Ohio matters much more than Texas in some ways. This is because Ohio is a key sign of how Pennsylvania and West Virginia will go, where Clinton needs to score big wins to catch up in delegates. Thus it is preferable for her to scrape Texas and dominate in Ohio than vice versa.
70
I have always thought the BBC not pro(a minor difference to being anti) Conservative, nothing I have heard recently dispels that belief, the truth methinks is that even the BBC is starting to seriously question Labour(and its announcements, re announcements and continual spinning),and about time too. Consequently they are at last giving DC and co a fairer hearing(no more no less)(and not before time) The love in with Tony(champagne bottles popping )is over for sure. That’s whats really upsetting Labour.
80 - Clinton by 10 points in OH! I’d be surprised… very surprised if that were the case, i think she’ll win the state by a clear margin but 10 points, that would be a huge win for the Clinton Campaign.
As to the trends and internals from the various polls folks are flagging up, you can make your choice and take your pick… but the turnout models from the various pollsters go a long way to explaining the variation between the polls and as we’ve seen so far this year turnout and voting paterns have been somewhat turned on their heads this year.
So people are more interested in the results of a primary election in a foreign nation than in the sovereignty of their own? In that case you shouldn’t pretend to be surprised at how we’re governed…
90 Kieran. True enough. The fact is that many of the polls in the race todate have been way off the mark. Other have had the result correct but the margin for out. The exit polls have been better. I tend to look at trends in general and local pollsters with a decent track record in particular.
82 - The Ohio polls haven’t been a mixed bag in that Clinton has led them all, except Zogby.
85 - You can think I’m spinning if you want but I’m telling it like it is. I have been open all along to a Clinton victory, going back to ST and before, and pressed the point that Obama was not inevitable. But he has outperformed this month, winning states by very big margins. There is no evidence Hillary can do the same. If you think Clinton can get the nomination without winning either the PV or pledged delegates you are mistaken. I think there is a slight chance of her doing the former but it is slight. She needs everything to go for her from now on.
One day of polls does not make momentum - if she wins big tomorrow fine but that is not what the polls suggest. If they are right they are probably enough to keepher in the race but she will remain the clear underdog.
94,97 - Ben a ten-point Ohio win would be good for Clinton but I wouldn’t describe it as a ‘huge’ win, given Obama has carried many states by much bigger margins. It would change the narrative and keep her in the race but she still has much to do to catch up.
Jack W - Following local pollsters is a good strategy. Ann Selzer in Iowa did a great job. However it is important to look at track-records as well. No pollsters in the US are very good, most are cr*p, but some are cr*per than others and Zogby is cr*ppest.
If Clinton wins TX and OH, then the ‘lesson of the election’ / conventional wisdom will be that it was the 3am attack ad which did it.
The reason that this is particularly horrible for Obama is that there is only one other primary, in a state everyone already expects him to win easily, between tomorrow and the second half of April, so it’s much harder to regain momentum.
No one knows what the effect of five weeks coverage of ‘voters think Obama is weak on national securty, can’t protect our children’ / ‘if he can’t handle this, he certainly can’t cope with the Republican attack machine’ would be on the polls and on the superdelegates.
The flip side of this is that her late revival raises expectations, so if she doesn’t win both TX and OH, that’s probably that.
211 Previous Thread (sorry if marginally off thread)Ladbrokes’ “Correct Score” odds on Hillary winning 3-1 in the four states voting tomorrow have been reduced from 4/1 to 3/1 over the past hour.
Was that Peter the Punter singing ??
Blimey - we don’t expect this kind of thing from PBC - keep it up Mike!
reposted from last tread and O/T - Does anyone else bet on F1?
I’m going to repeat my tip of Kovalainen - Currently 14/1 on betfair - I already filled my boots with him on ladbrokes a few months ago at 12/1 and have no more spare cash. Given that he is in one of only 2 cars and can win it and therefore one of only 3 drivers that can win it it looks good to me…
From last thread
“252 - There’s no point having a narrative if it’s shot full of plot holes and improbabilities. Clinton will look crazy if she tries to claim that she is not really losing (look at Huckabee) and nobody will elect a crazy president (well, at least not for the third time in a row).
100 delegates is a massive difference at this stage, if you are losing 1-0 with 45 minutes to go then okay, but Clinton is losing 1-0 and we are already in the last five minutes of normal time. She cannot make up the difference without winning the rest at an average of 60/40 (with things at their most favourable for her). Only a massive scandal could sink Obama now.
Whoever gets the most delegates from the pledged delegates wins, the superdelegates will commit electoral suicide if they go against that. If there was a market to bet on saying that they wouldn’t overturn the popular delegate count I would lump a fair amount on it (if the odds were good!)
Clinton is a poor second favourite, she cannot win this apart from by foul methods or by a complete implosion of Obama.”
A respite from SeanT! No more book titles or EU constitutions. Hallelujah! How about ‘Topkapi’? Too late. What a shame! ‘411 Pera Palace’ an homage to a real thriller writer set in Istanbul? OK that’s my lot.
I hear Obama is in trouble? Some corrupt dealing in Chicago. I look forward to Hillary’s new attack ad ‘Obama-gate’
6, I saw a little of that on the news. Apparently the corrupt guy has helped out Obama (such as with funding to all his campaigns) but there’s no suggestion of impropriety on Obama’s part.
However, having a friend who’s a crook doesn’t look good.
re 7. It never stopped the Clinton duo
5. Did you see Channel4 News? An Obama implosion is possible. It depends how this thing runs. If it was the UK it would run and run even if it didn’t amount to anything at the end.
5. 264. Bizarre, and hopelessly inaccurate, maths from you there ukpaul lol! Clinton is 100 shy of Obama. There are still 981 delegates to go, and then the super-delegates. She does not need to win 60-40 from here at all. She needs to take the remaining delegates by just under 55% to Obama’s 45% to go ahead into the convention. In terms of delegate count with Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania accounting for half the remaining delegates she could easily be ahead come June 7th.
That’s without Florida. And it’s without the super-delegates. Hillary Clinton is in with a real chance.
Besides this, when it comes to superdelegates
8, true. I’m not saying it’ll derail Obama, but it’s not going to help him.
10. Sorry, left a hanging chad of a comment in my post at the end.
Sky News also running with the Obama sleaze story.
10 - Your maths is devoid of reality. Look at North Carolina, Oregon, Mississippi etc etc. You imagine that she can win the same there as in Ohio and Texas? Given that, the states where things are favourable for her she needs to win she needs to win 60/40.
£50 evens that Obama gets the nomination, take it or leave it.
10 Richard. Do you understand how the delegate allocation works in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania ?? … add to the mix the remaining states and you’ll understand why ukpaul and I take the position we do.
Seen this? FWIW My money is on the ‘middle way’ Autumn 2009
‘“We all know that 2010 would be the worst possible option. It makes it look like we are desperate – clinging on,” one minister told the FT.
“The best option would be the spring of 2009 with the fallback position as autumn 2009. Leaving it until the following year would only be a last resort.”
14. I think I do understand your position, and I think it has little to do with US political reality, and nothing to do with Maths. Prepare for a shock!
13. UKPaul 50 quid beyond my betting level in a straight bet, but I would certainly bet you a tenner he doesn’t get it. Of course, this isn’t exactly great odds from you because I can still get 3-1 or more on Hillary from the bookies. I suspect your offer of evens reflects your growing nervousness about your man’s position …
10. Actually Obama is ahead by 157 in pledged delegates. Texas’ strange rules should split delegates fairly evenly. Even a big win for her in Ohio should, at best, be matched by South Carolina going Obama’s way. So she’s depending on racking up huge wins in Pennsylvania (158 delegates), Kentucky (51) and West Virginia (28), as well as scraping wins in Oregon and Indiana, which are Obama-favourable territory. And that’s just to put her close enough for it to be considered anything like a tie going into the convention.
Of course, the superdelegates could always overturn it, but there’s no evidence that they would. Many have said that they should not overturn the will of the people, and not one senior figure has endorsed Clinton’s “independent judgment” argument. Add in the fact that superdelegates are under pressure to endorse which way their state/district went, and that people like Gore and Dean are surely Obama supporters, its looking very unlikely.
13 ukpaul
Ignore that Dick he has no head for numbers and a mean streak wider than the yellow band on the back of the average osamabomber.
He knows nothing about US politics and needs to write about matters he understands. Now I’m back into our Florida garden, [note: not yard] to our warm sunshine, and Theodore White’s “Breach of Faith.”
Malcolm
Meanwhile XII …. Jay Newton-Small of “Time” looks at how recent union backing for Obama is helping in Ohio :
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1718918,00.html
…………….
16 Richard. Ok old chap, we’ll leave you in your twilight world where Hillary somehow conjures up a massive delegate haul from Guam and …….er Canada ?????
16 -
You said “It’s going to the wire and I would almost now make Hillary favourite.” That shouts out evens to me, I’m calling your bluff. If you don’t want the odds, don’t lay the odds.
A tenner will do but it’s not as much fun. PtP are you around?
9. 12. Obama’s Rezko issue courtesy of RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/obamas_former_friend.html
18. Actually I studied US politics!
17. Not according to the widely-respected and adopted NYT. He’s actually ahead by 91 pledged delegates but I rounded up, just to demonstrate how generous spirited I am lol. http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
AP has him ahead by 110.
It’s going to the wire this if Clinton pulls off 3 wins tomorrow, which I’m increasingly anticipating.
Richard you are so throwing you’re money at ukpaul! You’d be very wise to go check the subtleties of delegate apportionment before waging any more money on Hillary dear boy.
There’s just no way she will come out ahead on delegate count anywhere on Wednesday even by coming out ahead in the popular vote. Still it’s your money and losing is a good learning experience!
20. Oh I’ll take the bet: a tenner it is with the bet that ‘Obama doesn’t get the Democractic nomination’. Happy with the wording?
23. Yeah yeah … I haven’t lost any money in a political bet for about 4 years.
Note my wording.
23 - Well, ‘nomination to be the Democratic presidential candidate’ is a bit more precise but okay.
26. That wording is fine too! I just wanted to avoid arguments about ‘winning delegates / states / superdelegates / popular votes / sentiments etc.’!
23 - Well, of course he won’t be the nomination of the ‘democractic party’!
Put simply, if Obama is the Democratic Party’s candidate for president I win £10, if he isn’t then you win £10. If he gets shot, poisoned or otherwise disposed of then the bet is void (stay away from Deeley Plaza).
28. Ah … you see, now you deprive me of several get-outs. You said nothing about him getting shot previously. However, so as to avoid the macabre I accept your bet on the terms set out there.
For the record, those are still lousy odds compared to the 3-1 you can still get on Hillary. Looks favourable to me.
By the way, unfortunately I think this may run and run right through to Denver. The only winner in that scenario is John McCain.
Rather think this will all be effectively over by Thursday morning.
Hillary now in the high 19’s on the Iowa exchanges. These are her best figures since 25th February.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
By what margin is Clinton likely to need to win the popular vote to also win the most delegates?
2 Was that Peter the Punter singing?
No, he was the one winking at the end - unmistakably so, even without the red Fedora.
In Texas.
29 Then you should take Ladbrokes’ 2/1 on her quitting by midnight this Friday. I rather wish I had not done do.
n Texas James with the advantage Obama has in the apportionment to the African-American and Liberal-White congressional districts she is probably looking at needing a 6-4 split. That does not even take into account what’s going to happen in the caucus in the evening which will heavily favour Obama as all the others have done.
33 James. Take at look here :
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Feb26.html
Unlike Richard I’m not confident enough in my beliefs to put my money where my mouth is PfP!
33. You’re best off playing with this thing:
http://www.lonestarproject.net/DemPrimary.htm
Ot
but Nulab getting nickers in a twist over the Today programme.
Sorry if its been posted before.
Strikes me this shows signs of being somewhat rattled
http://www1.sky.com/news/CameronToday.pdf
From last thread…..
Anthony Wells says ICM contadicts Mori on LDs/Referendum.
ICM…67%[as opposed to 30%] of LDs want a vote on the Treaty.
ICM…70% want a two questioner [as opposed to 7%].
Anyway if you are interested..
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php
can we read anything into the fact that all these polls showing clinton with a big (10%) leads in ohio were taken over the weekend? really leaps out at me from the rcp polls page
same with texas, two polls showing clinton with big (5%) leads were taken exclusively over the weekend, don’t we tend to view polls taken over holiday periods with suspicion?
39 A little touchy - reminiscent of Hillary and the cushion for Obama. Bad sign for Labour (as it as when Wilson did it, and for Conservatives when Thatcher did and Major did).
RCP average for Texas has Clinton ahead again …
… by 0.3%
41. That’s interesting. What’s the reasoning behind that?
39 SNL’s take on biased interviewing (pretty unfunny appearance by the real Hillary at the end)
http://youtube.com/watch?v=mDDmAHsElMY
39. I do agree that some parts of the media are very soft on Cameron. However, I think that putting it in an open letter like that does smack a bit of desperation.
39. Pathetic, whinging about why their not asking certain questions is a certain sign of nitpicking, and perhaps an attempt to make the media out to be pro-cameron.
Meanwhile XIII …. The winner of Ohio is …….
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/03/clinton_leadingedgingtrailing_in_ohio_by_942_points/
…………………..
41 Dan Smith. The Suffolk and Dispatch polls in Ohio showing 12% and 16% leads for Hillary were Democrat only polls, whereas Ohio is an open primary.
48. yeah, susa and PPP included non-democrats and they are showing big clinton leads as well though.
20 UK Paul
I’m always around. Please send the usual email.
50. Clinton currently has the mo’. Whether it’s enough to take both Ohio and Texas some will doubt, but I think she will, and I suspect the scale of her victory (in Ohio especially) may surprise some. We’ll see!
48: the SUSA wasn’t though (77% dem, 12% indies, rest repubs), and that’s Clinton+10. They had 16% already voted, with Clinton+13% ahead among those.
At least Cameron’s answers have some relevance to the questions asked. Brown might be”happy” to be questioed on a range of subjects but I can’t really remember him answering with anything but “itwasrightiforeconomicstabilitytomakedifficulthardchoiceforlongterm”
50 - the latest polls can be accessed from this site
http://politicalwire.com/
40. I’ve been on the Today programme with Cameron. Mad, but true.
I think the Beeb are quite loved-up with Cameron, and have thought so for about a year. I think for them he’s the new Blair.
48 Jack - who do you see winning Ohio and btw where’s SSI when you need him?
Latest Gallup nation primary tracker :
Clinton 43% .. Obama 48%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104740/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-Clinton-43.aspx
58. I love your take, and lack of it, Jack. You carefully avoid noting that even that tracker is a slide for Obama - seeing his lead cut from 8% to 5%.
It’s clear going into the final day that she has the momentum. Late swings often produce fascinating results (UK 1992 being the great classic of course). It’s going to be extremely exciting tomorrow.
56 PfP. Ohio !?!?!?!? … mighty tricky.
The polls are clearly trending Hillary, some by a decent margin. However a new Zogby/Reuters poll has Obama ahead, I think his first lead in Ohio.
Do we accept the majority view of the polls or the clear evidence that recent polls understate Obama’s final figures. If the latter does it cancel out Hillary’s poll lead ???
My advice on Ohio is that unless you need to hedge then avoid.
36, 38. Jack W, Socrates. Thank you.
To change the subject a little:
<>
http://www.iwantareferendum.org/PRDetail.aspx?ArticleID=1857
These results are incredible even to me.
Question is how will this impact the political class? What will the MPs in these constituencies do knowing that approximately 30% of their net registered electorate oppose a treaty that they will sign into law without a second thought?
What will the Tories do? If they can’t exploit this I’m sorry to say they’re not fit for office, or even fit to recieve their MPs salary.
Constituencies polled:
Aberconwy
Bolton West
East Renfrewshire
Eastleigh (despite Chris Huhne’s traitorous lies - again)
Gedling
Hammersmith
Harlow
Pudsey
Redditch
Somerton & Frome
Full text:
I Want a Referendum today announced the results of ten referendums which have been running in ten marginal constituencies. The referendums have been carried out for IWR by Electoral Reform Services - a leading firm of independent election scrutineers recognised by the United Nations, the British Government, and used by all the three main parties for their internal elections.
Despite several of the sitting MPs leafleting constituents telling them not to vote, the referendums have led to an unprecedented response from voters.
Key results:
* Stunningly, 152,520 people voted across just ten parliamentary constituencies. Of these 133,251 voted for a referendum.
* Even though the poll was unofficial, the 36.2% turnout means that a higher proportion of people voted in these unofficial referendums than in real elections in their local area. The average turnout for local elections (when not held with general elections) since 1996 is 35.4%. The average turnout in referendums on directly elected mayors - including in London - is 30.1%.
* This is the highest ever turnout in such an unofficial ballot.
* Voters were asked two questions:
Should the hold a national referendum on the EU’s Treaty?
88% voted yes and 12% voted no. Less than 1% did not answer.
Should the approve the EU’s Treaty?
89% voted against the Treaty and 8% voted in favour. 3% did not answer.
* In eight of the ten seats a greater proportion of people voted for a referendum than voted for the sitting MP. On average the sitting MPs won 27.5% of the available vote. But of those balloted in this campaign, 31.2% voted for a national referendum.
59 Peter THE punter agrees wit that assessment, Jack.
61 - what proportion of those who want a referendum might let this influence which party they choose in a GE?
Not making a point, just wondering if there was polling data on it.
58 Richard. I’ve listed dozens of polls over the past five days and as a ‘Smithson’ (rule of thumb) I don’t comment unless there is something noteworthy about the poll.
59. Jack W. Well I’ve just tried to hedge by backing Hillary at 1/2 to win Ohio with Bet365. I attempted a reasonable sized bet but they have only allowed me their maximum bet. I have been allowed £2 to win £1!
Now where’s that Aaron?
Hillary in from 6 to 5.7 for the Dem nomination in the last 30 mins - in pretty thin trading.
9 - This story has been being reported for some time now over in the states, it’s reemerged because Rezkco’s trial is now due to begin, it’s bad timing for Obama… but a harbinger of an implosion? Hardly.
Unlike many other politicians, Cameron has deliberately tried to woo the bbc. He said in a speech last year:
“Another institution we can all be proud of is the BBC. The British Broadcasting Corporation was founded by a Scotsman and is the most prestigious broadcaster on earth. People around the world tune into the BBC for news they can trust. The BBC also reminds us of our common culture.”
This is a very different tack from many on the right who (like Labour now are) accuse it of bias and say the license fee should be scrapped. Not everyone at the bbc is convinced by Cameron though. Strangely it is some of those on the right of the bbc (Nick Robinson and Andrew Neil) who appear to be the biggest doubters.
55.
Can’t say I have seen any sign of it on the Today programme [but then I am not at my best at 6:30].
Humphreys was once so aggressive with DC that I felt like contacting them [sad, I know, but true].
In the end I concluded Humpers had come over so badly, it probably backfired.
Didn’t someone on this site say the announcement re prison today had been put out at 6 on the BBC as ‘Tories paying prisoners’.
May be we all see what we don’t want to sometimes.
I have detected a real change in the Times, also, but less so, the Sun. Likewise Sky News Blog. As Ashley says, there seems to be a real perception in the media that the ideas/energy is with the Tories.
There is a real danger in Gordon being seen to nick anything.
How can it be ’student politics’ if he can’t do any better?
66. Just pointing out that you didn’t show the % shift. What’s fascinating about that is that it’s a tracker, and as Gallup point out it reveals a very significant move to Clinton in the Sunday polling to make the tracker move all of 3% in her favour. Remember that trackers are normally less volatile, though they are also less reliable. The section that was lost was almost certainly a pro-Obama lurch, but even so Clinton is really in business tomorrow.
Richard - have you seen the weather forecast for Ohio tomorrow?
Thought not….
72. there are a lot of things richard is not seeing from the looks of it
Looking in from a meing in Bern via mobile, so just two quick comments from my pro-Hillary corner:
1. Obama fans have made much of his doing better vs McCain in theoretical matchups. While I’ve never put much store in hypothetical questions, note that the poll on the last thread shows the reverse.
2. The arithmetical argument won’t stick if Obama is seen as seriously behind after a blunder or scandal. The superdelegates will recoil in that situation.
I do think Obama will get the nomination but it’s not quite over.
71 If you are right that’s good news for those few of us who want to see President McCain.
51 - I’ve never expected that Obama would take OH and i dont think he will tommorow, a slight trend to Clinton over the weekend seems to have emerged which should reinforce her position in OH (where she has never been behind in the polls), TX is more interesting as that has looked very competative for the last few weeks, absentee ballots (which, in contrast to NH and CA, could favour Obama) might prove important… either way the degree to which Clinton has been outspent would make an Obama slip up in TX pretty tough to explain (regardless of the ground his campaign has made up over the last fortnight or so - closing from wide Clinton leads in both states).
64/SBS
<>
Doesn’t say, but 36% is a high turnout regardless for a ‘non-binding’ vote. That many people bothered to fill in the forms necessary to have their opinion counted despite the fact it would probably not be reported.
There is some limited data here:
http://www.iwantareferendum.com/finalresults.pdf
57 - Confirms the Rasmussen poll I highlighted earlier today showing that Clinton remains solidly above 40% nationally.
51 - Clinton doesn’t have the ‘mo. She has lost more than 10 contests in a row and seen her margins in her two firewall states eroded virtually completely. Today have seen a series of good polls but the movement is relatively small. It shows she has fight left in her, not that she wil win.
She is likely to win Ohio but Texas is a complete toss-up. It is tremendously difficult to poll becaus eof its size and diversity. Turnout models will likely account for many of the differences between the polls.
A couple of interesting bits from SUSA - 48% of their sample have voted already (Clinton +2). That seems on the high side. Hispanics (32%) outnumber Blacks (17%). This would favour Clinton. Obama is the slight favourite in Texas (in terms of PV) because I reckon his ground game will be superior but Clinton has a decent chance. One thing that could cripple her is high levels of independent turnout.
On the Ukpaul-Richard discussion - I don’t see a way for Clinton to regain the pledged delegate lead. Her only hope is to win the PV. She is currently 900,000 behind. If she wins Texas by 5 and Ohio by 10 (probably her best-case scenario) my very back of the envelope calculation has the lead down to 500-600k. That could not be recovered in the remaining primaries. See Socrates on the previous thread explaining that Clinton is unlikely to have a significant edge. However she could perhaps half that advantage in a best case scenario leaving her 300k behind. Then she would need Florida and Michigan to be rerun and win both states by 55-45, putting her maybe 50k ahead.
In summary she needs to win as well as possible tomorrow AND outperform in the remaining primaries AND get Michigan and Florida to rerun all at the time when the Dems will want to unite and independents will be free to cross over from a meaningful GOP race. In other words she has a very uphill struggle.
66 stjohn.
That’s not a hedge but a nibble on a leaf !!
71 Richard. Normally these trackers do move slowly. However both the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers have had more large jumps in them than the ‘Grand National’
In the short term I tend to place them in the ‘bit of fun’ category. However they are more useful in showing longer term trends IMO.
Its so hard to read, but surely the trend is with her at the moment. My guess is she will win Ohio by more than 10% and Texas pretty big too - maybe up to 10%. On this basis it looks completely ridiculous that he is 5 to 1 on. If she wins these 2 big States decisively she must have got a good chance of winning.
Barack Obama has made up tremendous ground in both Ohio and Texas, but Hillary Clinton continues to prevent him from pulling away with a steady lead. Both races are deadlocked, according to the polls, and new data from Mason-Dixon have some troubling news for Obama’s campaign.
Obama’s supporters aren’t as solid in their support as Clinton’s are in Texas. Eleven percent of voters statewide say they may still change their mind, and Obama’s supporters make up the majority of those respondents. In Ohio, both candidates have similar levels of resolute support.
More bad news when we turn our attention to favorability ratings. Obama’s unfavorables are significantly higher than Clinton’s in both states. When voters were asked whether they had a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Obama and Clinton, Obama “leads” Clinton on unfavorability ratings by seven points. In Texas, one-quarter of respondents have an unfavorable view of Obama. Seventeen percent say the same about Clinton. This may suggest Clinton supporters are more disillusioned with Obama than Obama supporters are of Clinton.
59 Wow, I hadn’t seen the latest Zogby poll showing Obama ahead in Ohio - it really is a mixed bag, although the odds aren’t moving that much in either of the two major states.
I’m just wondering whether there might be some element of a sympathy vote for Hillary tomorrow - a sort of yes, she’s going out, but let’s do it gently.
69. Popular politicians tend to get an easier ride because they tend to be popular for a reason (or there’s a lack of reasons for them being unpopular). More commonly, unpopular politicians tend to be unpopular because they’ve done something the public / press / others don’t like, which gives the media something to get their teeth into.
There is tons of stuff for the media to have a go at Labour about - there usually is for the government, and especially a government that has been in office for nearly eleven years. There is much less to take Cameron on over, probably deliberately so.
For Richard’s benefit, the weather forecast in Ohio is particulalrly foul - 2″-4″ of freezing rain. So this will be a test - who has the most dedicated supporters to go out (and stand in line?) in that.
My money would be on Obama’s young base rather than Hillary’s over 60’s.
And it looks like the counting in Ohio may be mighty slow - paper ballots - with expectations that it may go on into the night US time - so maybe breakfast for us? Expect Hillary to race into a tidy early rural-based lead, with Obama then creeping back as the urban areas start to deliver their much larger (and so slower) counts.
79. Spin Kieran, if you don’t mind my saying so.
My reference to momentum is in regard to the polls, where she’s evidentially got a move going. Some of you may think it not enough, but if she takes 3 of tomorrow’s contests she is right back in this, make no mistake.
80. I don’t think she will win Ohio by double figures, but I think she will do better than expected in Texas.
LOL!
McCain looking forward to winning 40 states out of 50
GOP GOP GOP GOP GOP in government in USA until 2020
85. She will have to get at least one big win to survive Richard. Three scrapes with a few points in it and she’s dead in the water.
Taken from the DD website - some internals re Clinton.
From PPP’s analysis:
‘Obama has not seen the same level of support from young people in Ohio that he has benefited from in other states. He leads Clinton only 49-46 among voters aged 18-29 and trails 48-44 with respondents 30-45.
Although he has the same high level of support from African Americans that he has tended to enjoy (75-18), his gap among white voters is considerable. Clinton has a 59-34 advantage with that group. […]
A particular problem for Obama is limited support among male voters, who he has dominated in states where he has done well. In Ohio he leads that group just 47-46.
Survey USA has some interesting analysis about one of the reasons for her resurgence and the geographic dynamics of her support in the state:
In SurveyUSA’s data: the 16 minutes that Clinton spent arguing with Obama about health care at this week’s NBC News debate appears to have paid off. Slightly more voters now name health care as the most important issue, and among those who do, Clinton today leads by 24 points, up from a 7-point lead last week. In greater Cincinnati, Clinton had trailed in two previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, but today leads by 19 points. In greater Dayton, the swing is smaller, but also to Clinton. In Southeast Ohio, Clinton has always led, but now leads overwhelmingly. If you combine these 3 regions and draw them on a map, they form a horseshoe, and trace the Ohio boundary that touches red-state Indiana on the West, red-state Kentucky on the South and red state West Virginia on the East. At this hour, that horseshoe is functioning as Clinton’s firewall.’
Jack W - do not trust Zogby. They had a terrible record on ST. There last pol had Obama up 13 in CA, Clinton won by 10. If Obama wins Ohio then they may regain some of their reputation (then again even a broken clock is right twice a day) but I don’t see it.
For those seeking to find some value between different bets, Ohio matters much more than Texas in some ways. This is because Ohio is a key sign of how Pennsylvania and West Virginia will go, where Clinton needs to score big wins to catch up in delegates. Thus it is preferable for her to scrape Texas and dominate in Ohio than vice versa.
G
O
P
O
K
70
I have always thought the BBC not pro(a minor difference to being anti) Conservative, nothing I have heard recently dispels that belief, the truth methinks is that even the BBC is starting to seriously question Labour(and its announcements, re announcements and continual spinning),and about time too. Consequently they are at last giving DC and co a fairer hearing(no more no less)(and not before time) The love in with Tony(champagne bottles popping )is over for sure. That’s whats really upsetting Labour.
80 - Clinton by 10 points in OH! I’d be surprised… very surprised if that were the case, i think she’ll win the state by a clear margin but 10 points, that would be a huge win for the Clinton Campaign.
As to the trends and internals from the various polls folks are flagging up, you can make your choice and take your pick… but the turnout models from the various pollsters go a long way to explaining the variation between the polls and as we’ve seen so far this year turnout and voting paterns have been somewhat turned on their heads this year.
So people are more interested in the results of a primary election in a foreign nation than in the sovereignty of their own? In that case you shouldn’t pretend to be surprised at how we’re governed…
yet another poll for Ohio
http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?storyid=38967
Clinton leads
90 Kieran. True enough. The fact is that many of the polls in the race todate have been way off the mark. Other have had the result correct but the margin for out. The exit polls have been better. I tend to look at trends in general and local pollsters with a decent track record in particular.
95 - i am more concerned about uk2010 but we may as well pass an opinion on us.
However…..I think uk2010 will be CON WIN!!!!
82 - The Ohio polls haven’t been a mixed bag in that Clinton has led them all, except Zogby.
85 - You can think I’m spinning if you want but I’m telling it like it is. I have been open all along to a Clinton victory, going back to ST and before, and pressed the point that Obama was not inevitable. But he has outperformed this month, winning states by very big margins. There is no evidence Hillary can do the same. If you think Clinton can get the nomination without winning either the PV or pledged delegates you are mistaken. I think there is a slight chance of her doing the former but it is slight. She needs everything to go for her from now on.
One day of polls does not make momentum - if she wins big tomorrow fine but that is not what the polls suggest. If they are right they are probably enough to keepher in the race but she will remain the clear underdog.
95 its been discussed a lot already today - look at earlier thread.
93 - “BBC not pro(a minor difference to being anti) Conservative”
I think the point is that they’re extremely pro NU-labour. Distasteful stuff from a public service broadcaster.
for balance another Texas poll just released
http://www.khou.com/news/local/stories/khou080303_tnt_belopollmonday.1c1978fa.html
Clinton leads - just
New thread - Should Hillary’s political obituaries be put on hold?
94,97 - Ben a ten-point Ohio win would be good for Clinton but I wouldn’t describe it as a ‘huge’ win, given Obama has carried many states by much bigger margins. It would change the narrative and keep her in the race but she still has much to do to catch up.
Jack W - Following local pollsters is a good strategy. Ann Selzer in Iowa did a great job. However it is important to look at track-records as well. No pollsters in the US are very good, most are cr*p, but some are cr*per than others and Zogby is cr*ppest.
If Clinton wins TX and OH, then the ‘lesson of the election’ / conventional wisdom will be that it was the 3am attack ad which did it.
The reason that this is particularly horrible for Obama is that there is only one other primary, in a state everyone already expects him to win easily, between tomorrow and the second half of April, so it’s much harder to regain momentum.
No one knows what the effect of five weeks coverage of ‘voters think Obama is weak on national securty, can’t protect our children’ / ‘if he can’t handle this, he certainly can’t cope with the Republican attack machine’ would be on the polls and on the superdelegates.
The flip side of this is that her late revival raises expectations, so if she doesn’t win both TX and OH, that’s probably that.
87 Ave
Is there a tenner that says that McCain will win 40 states out of 50? I win if he takes 0 to 39, you win if he takes 40 - 50.
Just asking.
Malcolm