Election night: Is the trend moving to Hillary?
March 4th, 2008
But could the mass of early voting underpin Obama?
With less than two hours to go before the polls closed in the first of the four key primaries tonight the latest Gallup tracking poll suggests that the momentum might be moving back to Hillary.
A big issue though, particularly in Texas, is how the hundreds of thousands of people who took part in the early voting will have gone. Could this be Obama’s secret weapon tonight?
We will see.
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Best of luck to the Elite Betting Team.
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First!
At this point I don’t think there are any trends - it’s up in the air and predictions either way are little more than guesses.
If Hillary does win Texas and Ohio what happens next? Is Obama out?
It does give potential ammunition to a potential “Hilary bounceback” narrative from the media.
As Obama has been dominant for so long, there may be a desire for such a narrative - it could well rely on how tonight goes. If Hilary picks up 3 of 4, then I’d expect to see such a narrative in some if not many media outlets. If so, her price may tighten - potential opportunity there?
Even if she picks up just 2, with decent expectation management, that might be enough to cue the “bounceback” narrative.
2/ “If Hillary does win Texas and Ohio what happens next? Is Obama out?”
Lol
2. Nowhere near! Much of the resulting dynamic will depend on the size of the win, but there is no way Obama will be out by tomorrow. Unless she racks up huge wins he’s still going to be the front runner.
2, GIN, I think that it’s a “necessary but not sufficient” condition for Hillary. It would mean that she’s back in the game, though, and Mike’s “trade on the Obama-Clinton seesaw” strategy could well have a few more opportunities if it happens.
Anyway - early night for me, so good luck to the team at Elitebetting, and good luck to Mike’s daughter!
Night all.
Is something wrong with the server?
From slate.com
Even if Hillary Clinton wins tonight’s primaries, she still has an increasingly difficult road ahead. Going into this evening’s results, Clinton needs an average margin of victory of 16 points in every remaining primary to tie Obama’s pledged delegate total. If Clinton wins by fewer than 16 points, then her job only gets tougher going forward. According to our delegate calculator, two 10-point wins in Ohio and Texas would inflate her margin-of-victory target to 20 points, which will be a hard margin to achieve once Obama visits Pennsylvania and North Carolina (the two richest states remaining, delegate-wise).
But there is some good news for Hillary: If she wins tonight, pledged delegates definitely won’t decide this contest. With two Clinton victories, neither candidate will be able to reach 2,025 delegates—the number needed for a majority—without the help of superdelegates. (Obama had a slim chance of doing so coming into the evening.) Currently, Clinton has a 44-superdelegate lead, according to CNN, but Tom Brokaw is reporting that Obama’s campaign may be set to announce a 50-superdelegate envoy this week. That would make both candidates about even in superdelegates, which would make Clinton’s climb even tougher. If she averaged a 10-point win in every state going forward (including tonight’s festivities), and if Obama pulls even with her in the superdelegate count this week, she would need to attract 57 more superdelegates than Obama by the convention. Considering she has a net loss of superdelegates over the last few weeks, that’s going to take an even bigger turnaround than a comeback at the polls.
Good luck to the team of volunteers manning the keyboards tonight.
Not sure of the appropriate phrase but ‘break a leg’ it ain’t, perhaps ‘more power to your servers’ will suffice.
Statistical soup as the starter for this evening…
http://www.huliq.com/52595/statistical-soup-texas-exit-poll
Good luck to the Elite Betting Team - hope that it all goes well and you remember to update here
. Be very interesting to hear how it goes and see what happens for pb.com from it.
Congratulations too in anticipation of Mike becoming a grandfather (again?)
Reuters poll for Texas: Clinton 47, Obama 44
Hi
Could somebody explain what our elite colleagues are doing or provide the link to an earlier thread where I am sure it is explained.
A new RT Strategies/Cook political national poll :
Obama 47% .. McCain 38%
No Clinton Question
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2008_poll_tpline_mar2.pdf
clinton throwing kitchen sink at obama, for the 1st time he’s seriously on defensive and the US media don’t want this race to end just yet….win or bust for clinton but even if she wins….it looks almost impossible to clinch the nomination…great delegate tool http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/
have we established what Betfair mean by ‘win’ Texas?
Looking for value on Betfair - Obama in Rhode Island is currently at 17, which may be value, but I got burned on New Jersey, so don’t think I’ll partake…
Texas Primary has Hillary at 2.2, which would be good value if Betfair clarified that it is popular vote in the primary, not delegates from the primary or delegates including the caucus. You’re actually betting on how Betfair will interpret ‘winner’.
I think 5.5 for Obama in Ohio is a little mean, but if you think the weather will mean a younger electorate than expected, he might steal it by a gasp, though not that likely.
Go on Hilary!!!! She is getting some interesting momentum right now.
Independents in Democratic primary:
Ohio: 1 in 5
Texas: 1 in 4
RI: 1 in 3
Vermont: 2 in 5
Ohio: 75% White, 20% Black, 3% Hispanic
Marc Ambinder reporting that Clinton campaign saying that the Texas and Ohio exit polls indicate slim leads.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/early_views_from_the_clintonob.php
Hi Martin
This is the Politicalbetting Expeditionary Force attempting to establish a base in Highgate from which to take over the Political Betting world.
Elitebet have given us facilities for the nite which enable us to follow proceedings and bet and talk and argue together at the same time. It’s a bit of an experiment, with one eye definitely on a gala nite in November. So far, so good - will report in greater detail in later threads.
RHODE ISLAND
city/town shares of 2004 Kerry Vote
5 cities out of 39 towns/cities (including Block Island = town of New Shoreham) accounted for 50% of the statwide Kerry vote:
Providence = 14%
Warwick = 9%
Cranston = 8%
Pawtucket = 6%
East Providence = 5%
14 Martin
Elite is the name of the place, not a description of our group!
A few of us have decided to get together at Elite Bet in Highgate to try out their ‘Trading Room’ - we have a series of screens showing all the US Networks, and with computer screens and TVs each to flick through the various betting sites.
It’s a good set up - with maybe twenty of us in a room, we could cover every scrap of news/leaked polls/shifting odds/blogs, with the hope that we could find margin by the closeness of our attention.
We’re having a go tonight, then maybe in May for locals/mayoral race, and then of course November. If the visuals are good, this could also facilitate pb.com getting mainstream media coverage, as visuals have been the missing link for the website.
In parallel to this, some of us have decided to forma syndicate that will bet on politics. This will kick off over the next few weeks, and we will be publishing how we bet, and whether we win or lose. It will hopefully be a good way to guage how far ahead of the curve pb.com can be.
17,18 - yes… and i’m sure there are a few of us cautious over this and holding back from getting stuck in. Silly betfair!
POLL CLOSING TIMES
Vermont = 7pm EST (=12 midnight GMT)
Ohio = 7:30pm EST (=12:30am GMT)
Rhode Island = 9pm EST (=2am GMT)
Texas = 8pm CST (=2am GMT)
note: polls close El Paso = 8pm MST (=3pm GMT)
possible that judge(s) somewhere might extend polling hours due to weather, voting problems, etc.
Breaking News
CNN: Obama leads among African Americans in Texas.
Drudge reporting Obama wins Vermont …. quelle suprise !!
28. Never! lol.
28 - dog bites man?
I have been betting & trading aggressively on the U.S primaries on every occasion so far. But it seems to me that the liquidity is exceptionally poor on Betfair tonight. For the first time thinking about skipping the whole circus and getting some much needed sleep instead (1.30 am here in Denmark).
I do feel sorry for you EliteBet people unless of course you have beemn able to find more action elsewhere ……
Texas? Ohio? AC Milan 0 Arsenal 2 at the San Siro - now that is a result.
Just like to say that I got Arsenal at 12/1 on Betfair the day they sold Henry (I thought that was smart thinking to go the other way from the herd) - and my money is still sitting happily there waiting for a very tidy sum come May
Just wussed out of my Clinton-Ohio position, those exits are too tight for my liking. Bought at 1.53, sold at 1.13 average.
Texas looks interesting though…..
Given early voting, is there any point in exit polls?
The ratio of Independents looks high - presumably good news for Obama.
First Exit Polls:
VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33
OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49
TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49
RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49
From Huffington Post.
Is it just me that pages are taking ages to load for? Is the server screwed?
some exit poll data
http://thepage.time.com/first-wave-of-fox-democratic-exit-polls-for-ohio-texas/
4 million votes in Ohio..
http://www.ohio.com/news/ap?articleID=421856&c=y
Aren’t they counting manually?
37. No, it’s very very slow
If the Huffington Post numbers are correct, it is all over: Obama is the nominee.
2 sets of Exit polling reported on the National review website
Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio,
Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas,
Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island
Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
The second set is similarly close -
Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio,
tied in Texas,
Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island
Obama by 2 to 1 margin in Vermont
Make of that what you will…
I’ve rebooted the server. I can’t see why it’s so slow, but it is… very… slow…
Some exits via Daily Kos.
Rhode island interesting.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/4/18735/88678
Amusingly, my only bet on this evening was a wild £20 punt on Obama in RI…
Are there any Buckeye’s out there who remember this classic chant:
Me-o, My-o, I’m Sohio!
32 Dan - Oddly, it’s Rhode Island that is attracting most interest here. Some got on at double digit odds - now down to 4 on the bet side.
Basically we have three ultra-marginals happening, plus Vermont. This is fun. Looking ahead from Super Tuesday, these were the safe Clinton states in a row of likely Obamas - now look what’s happening..
36. If true, Obama would extend his delegate lead over Clinton tonight by about 10, from 160 to 170….
Ding Dong!
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Democrats.xls
Sea Shanty 46 - no but (with ref to my early post) I do know the chant ‘Ade-bey-or, Ade-bey-or, give him the ball and he will score’.
Probably means as little to you as the Ohio one does to me. Why, Buckeyes, by the way?
47 PtP. I did hint earlier !!
Hillary wins Texas and Ohio
Obama will step down when Dems tell him he can’t be the candidate……..
50 aha ha ha lucky arsenal!!!
McCain wins POTUS 08
SORRY ABOUT THE SLOW SERVER. I THINK WE’RE BEING THROTTLED BY OUR ISP!
Ave It resigns due to Obama victories in all 4 states
Borat GAINS Ave It!!!
Black turnout in Texas at 20%, close to historic levels apparently. But that is the exit polls from today’s voting. I saw earlier reports that turnout in heavily black areas was 800-900% up on previous contests - ie in early voting. So if it’s 50-50 in the exits, doesn’t that mean a big advantage to come for Obama in TX?
51 - Hinting only counts if you put money on the assumption as well Jack.
take me off moderation this is ridiculous
51 Yes Jack, but people are more likely to listen to me.
UPDATE
——
McCain wins POTUS by 15% maj
Paul Lloyd: Arsenal have no chance in CL 08 or PL - but more chance than LDs have of winning before 2300 hehehehehehehe etc
CNN Vermont Exit
Obama 62
Clinton 36
I don’t get it…since you, our friends at Elite, can see the most info and pool the risk, why aren’t you guys clearing out on Obama to get the nomination and generous odds on Obama Ohio?
I like the experiment and look forward to hearing how it turns out. But does turn one from punter to observer - otherwise there is a risk of being taken out by fellow PBers!
53. No luck tonight, Ave, old chum. We destroyed them mentally, physically and on the scoreboard. When Watford get promoted again you had better be ready for that standard of football
See you back in the Prem.
LDs = LOLOL
Sounds like Clinton has already failed the OHIO Democratic Chair’s test…
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7010229881
61 - probably not next season LOL
USA update
———-
OBAMA = *nSYNC hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Super quayle 08
Brown trousers for Clinton Ohio odds-on backers;
1.05 £40
1.06 £33
1.09 £149
1.10 £2,973
Last 1.4!
It’s very possible that the delegate gap could be bigger for Vermont than in Texas!
50 As we used to say in West Virginia, a buckeye is a worthless nut, which is why Ohioans decided to make it their symbol!
Note that the circle on Ohio’s unique pennant state flag is supposed to symbolize the buckeye.
Also note that back in the old days, Esso gas stations were called “Sohio” stations in Ohio, technically belonged to Standard Oil of Ohio I believe.
Obama wins every single demographic in Vermont, including older women.
57 PtP. I bow to the bunker !!
BTW will Obama ‘Yeldarb’ the exit polls ??
On the exit polls, the dogs are still in with a fighting chance of Hillary not winning most delegates in any of the four states - and of taking £20 off Nick!
Yay - go Obama!!
Mike I have had a lot of problems accessing your site. This is my 10th attempt and only successful one.
66: yeah, I was wondering who was betting at those low odds - I was getting nibbles <1.15 for ages after the first exits came out.
Unusual situation for me at this stage: completely neutral now, 35% profit (after commission) locked in. Can just sit back and enjoy, and particularly be glad I didn’t bet on Texas……..
65-Hey Ave it, if Obama=nsync(byebye)
does that mean that Obama=LDs?
Mike I have had a lot of problems accessing your site this evening.. This is my 10th attempt and only successful one.
70 Starting to look possible, Jack.
Temporary change of look! But, boy is it quicker
We are getting 150 page downloads a minute which is a reason why the server is slow.
What happened to the site?!?
CNN - Because of bad weather polls extended in some Ohio counties to 2.00 Highgate time.
I’m trying to ensure it runs as quickly as possible. I may need to do some serious work this weekend to work out why it has run so slowly tonight, especially given it is a much faster machine than it used to be.
Until then, patience please
68. Cheers, Sea Shanty.
81. robert. It isn’t connected in any way to the Highgate mob and their super duper fast machines is it?
81: thanks robert - will try refresh less often!
VERMONT
Bennington County 6% pcts reporting
Obama = 53%
Clinton = 45%
See to remember your Gen. Burgoyne having a spot of bother in that locality . . .
Ohio-Clinton intrade just ballooned - has to be a new exit.
Competitive race in Ohio. I’d lay Clinton now. If she loses she could even drop out tonight.
CNN exits show Ohio Clinton 51-49 Obama.
CNN Exit Ohio
Obama 48
Clinton 51
Pathetic for Clinton if true.
I presume the team are now frantically trying to lay Clinton at any price…….
Hey, it suddenly got quicker. Where’s everyone gone!
Ohio Secretary of State website, will be reporting Democratic presidential vote by congressional district. Features rolling results bar plus interactive map.
And you can find out how all the other candidates on the ballot are doing, for example Dennis Kucinich who is running for reelection (provided he’s renominated, has serious challenge) in CD 10.
http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enr/f?p=152:1:0
90. Indeed. If she can’t win big in Ohio she can’t win big in Pennsylvania. Her game plan has a gaping big hole in the middle of it. She would need the superdelegates to overturn a big pledged delegate margin (and a popular vote loss) to get the nomination down.
12.30, robert frantically optimises Apache config files while trying not to wake sleeping baby
12.35, site appears much better, baby happy…
Dems (69%) voted Clinton +7%
Repubs (9%) went for Obama +10%
Indies (22% went for Obama +8%
we love robert
re 94. Brilliant Robert. Well done.
94. Well done robert. We’re cooking on gas!
Robert, Thanks from everyone at the Elite trading floor.
My Wicked Step Mom lives in Adams County Ohio - interesting to see who wins in that tiny place ..
Mike, please take me off moderation.
Robert should get a percentage of the Elite Bet Team’s winnings tonight. And his baby as well.
Well done Robert, if you need assistance or advice, please ask, as I do Linux sys admin including Apache.
On Ohio. I have just layed Clinton a bit as the beed have called it for Obama on the basis of reports.
VERMONT
More actual votes, Obama carrying pcts in Windsor & Windham counties, also in southern VT but on the other side of the Green Mtns from Bennington.
FYI McCain is over 70% in all 3 counties right now.
provided they’ll win anything ………….
O/T Brown considers June 2009 election
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pm-mulls-general-election-for-june-2009-791332.html
Currently 2/1 with betfair for a Jan-June 09 election. I’d make that great value and would price it up at 4/6.
102. I’d lay Clinton a lot if I were you, unless you think stupid punters might back her if she gets small wins.
Great work Robert - was getting distraught, Pb.Com much best source for up to date info.
Benedict; I may well take you up on that (after tonight!). Drop me an email at rcs 1000 at gmail dotcom.
103. Looks like McCain is to get the Republican nomination tonight.
90. No, UKPaul. The Elite team is showing as much unanimity as the Lib Dems.
93.But as some have pointed out, the super delegates will also focusing on the polls which show who is better placed to beat McCain?
PS. McCain will get the full apparatus of the party machine once he gets the nomination. This will be made clear on the news networks tomorrow, as they pour over the ramifications of tonight. I’d start backing him for the Presidency to lay later.
110- So what’s happening down at Elite? How do people see things going?
Wow! Robert, I don’t what you did, but the site is moving like a rocket now.
110. Is Matthew Partridge still waiting for Clinton’s Iraq bounce?
Notice that Obama is drifting quite a lot for Ohio - but exit polls seem quite close.
110.
98 - in colonies we say “cooking with gas” but I echo you kudos for Robert!
VERMONT
Obama winning early returns from Rutland County, once home to Rudyard Kipling
“Boots-boots-boot-boots-boots!
Sloggin’ over Africa!
And there’s no discharge to the war!”
102. Benedict. Are you saying the BBC are predicting Ohio for Obama?
110 - So you have Matthew Partridge with you then?
CNN saying Texas Talk Radio was pushing Conservative voters to vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary.
109. People should be covering positions now if they havent already. As things get trending you can take the risk of being sure you are right or getting badly caught out if youve got it wrong.
110 - I hope we’ll all get a de-breif about how you find it this evening!
I’ve just laid Clinton in Ohio: if Obama wins I lose nothing. My view remains that media are whipping up interest in Clinton just because it’s a better story.
Re 106, Socrates, “I’d lay Clinton a lot if I were you, unless you think stupid punters might back her if she gets small wins.”
I am laying her on Ohio now. Forget anywhere else.
114 - Indeed the site appears faster than it ever is before even in quiet periods! Kudos Robert!
118. SSI. That’s what I meant. Thanks. The excitement got the better of me.
121. Stories of Republican turnout in Ohio as well.
But for what reason?
121: rightpundit did have 5-8% texas dem voters as registered repubs. However, that’s actually slightly less than Ohio, so it’s questionable how much effect the talk radio folk had.
Besides, it looks like genuine convinced Obamacons outnumber “meddlers” voting for Clinton - Obama won registered repubs by 10%, even more than he did with independents
Wonder if close result in Rhode Island reflects Hillary’s team dissing small states - watching her on the Daily Show it was all about importance of Big States.
Also is Bill Richardson positioning himself to come out for Obama tomorrow if results tonight close to pressure a Clinton withdrawal.
A report about the exit data coming from Vermont
http://commentsfromleftfield.com/2008/03/obama-wins-vermont-plus-exit-polling-goodness
Re 112, Socrates, “PS. McCain will get the full apparatus of the party machine once he gets the nomination. This will be made clear on the news networks tomorrow, as they pour over the ramifications of tonight. I’d start backing him for the Presidency to lay later”
I am ahead of you on that
Am I missing something? Clinton at 1.11 for Ohio - on the back of a very slim exit poll lead and the possibility of that being overturned by early voting?
Exit polls - beware - up to 50% of votes that will be counted were not cast today, so these exit polls only indicate half of the story….
113 - This has not been a good night for Hillary, but I am fairly sure that as long as she wins 2 states, she’ll stay in until Pennsylvania.
I reckon 6.2 for Obama in Ohio is great value. The 90 minute extension to polling times in some Ohio counties was requested by Obama’s camp, which means they must like the profile of voters in those areas. While its within MOE, I’d lap up anything over about 5.5
By the way, if McCain takes the necessaryu numbers tonight I wonder will the bookies paid out in him for the nomination.
It would be a lovely sum…just in time for Cheltenham….
Re 119 StJohn, “102. Benedict. Are you saying the BBC are predicting Ohio for Obama?”
Yes, on the basis on some network calling that way, but don’t *cough* quote me on that
OH Secretary of State saying live now on C-SPAN that results from her state are being held back for an hour and half because a few counties that have had balloting issues have extended opening.
132 - Well, a 3% lead is still a 3% lead. You are effectively betting against the exits.
21 Yeah, but for every Texas T A-hole GOPer who voted for Clinton, there were 4 who voted for Obama!
OT - Brent Favre retires after 17 yrs as Green Bay Packers QB
Ooh, there seems to be a bit of a bust-up between the Obama campaign and the Secretary of State - Obama observers have apparently been turned away from polling stations for incorrect accreditation and the Obama campaign’s filed a law suit.
She also said that some stations printed ballot papers for 120% of the Democratic electorate in their counties and that hasn’t been enough because of crossovers; they’ve been photocopying ballots (presumably blank ones!) to keep up.
134. In psychological terms Ohio is more key than Texas because the former is a swing state.
Markets moving towards Obama in Texas. There must be new exit rumours.
137 - well, will give PBers plenty of time to analyze Vermont. Or chase after the latest rumor out of Chillicothe!
When are the next exit polls?
143 Not to mention Ashtabula, Wapekoneta, Xenia and the Great Serpent Mound . . .
138. Only if you think that people voting today had exactly the same demographic/political profile as those who voted early. I suspect the early voters reflected better ground organisation, but who knows.
Lol, Brattleboro in Vermont voted for a ballot initiative to impeach Bush and Cheney, and compel local police to arrest them if they turn up there.
Might be the secret service have something to say about that…..
137 - Seeing as CNN are now showing Ohio results on the site she seems to be out of the loop.
141. Yokel, I genuinely don’t believe that in the coming elections we’ll have a traditional electoral map - in which case we just can’t say whether or not Texas is a swing state.
If Obama’s the nominee and can tackle his problem with hispanics, I’m not sure Texas is out of reach. In fact, I could construct an argument that Texas may be a better state for Obama than Ohio, given McCain’s relative strength in the north east.
142. Hillary really needs Texas as well as Ohio though I can see with an Ohio win how she will claim that she wins where it matters.
Anyone else haveing trouble with the CNN site? It’s being really slow for me.
144 - some leaks, but should be more when polls close at 9pm EST/2am GMT in Rhode Island, Texas.
Hard to tell what going to come out of Ohio before 9pm Est now that polling is extended in some locations
148. From listening to the news conference, that’s my view too. She couldn’t even manage to turn off her mobile phone!
138. Well within the margin of error however.
149, I understand that but I think you are wrong. Texas will likely stay red.
VERMONT
Obama now carrying early returns in four northern VT counties
Has anyone a link to the CNN site?
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
157
http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304
154, Which given some US polls must be abour +/- 20%…..
155. Depends how much damage to their nominee the losin…err, Clinton campaign’s prepared to inflict. If she grows up and accepts her fate Texas could be in play. If she continues her stupid, damaging and false campaign which drives a stake through the party there’s no way it’s competitive, but then virtually nowhere will be.
Intrade moving heavily to Clinton in Ohio and to Obama in Texas. Some decent movement to Obama in RI but Hillary still strongly favoured there.
149 Either Obama or Clinton will do much better than Kerry in Texas.
But way too tall an order to overturn Kerry’s negative margin of -1.7 million votes in just one cycle!
Re 157 and 158, Socrates and UKPaul, many thanks.
161. Adam Clinton’s actions will make no difference to Democrat fortunes in November unless she wins.
Obama will stand or fall on his own merits come then.
If he cant beat the GOP after the two Bush terms then frankly he shouldnt have bothered.
US Networks: too close to call in OH…
Ding Dong!
163 Unless of course the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee is Kinky Friedman.
Pop Quiz: What is the greatest hit of Kinky and his incompreable band the Texas Jewboys? And what are KF’s political credentials?
CNN reporting OH exit poll as 56:42 for Clinton - that’s surely enough to win?
168. Well according to Sky, see 166.
Scrub that it’s the first few counties reporting
168 - Their exit poll is 51/48 to Clinton, an exit poll is not the less than 1% of votes that have been cast which is the figure you quoted.
165. If the Democrats can’t beat the GOP after eight years of Bush and with a young talented leader, you have to worry about them ever regaining the White house.
167 Don’t know but I love his book Elvis, Jesus and Coca Cola (is that the right title?)
OH exit polls are on CNN site, they’re still saying 51-49 to Clinton.
Clinton-Texas just collapsed on intrade, not sure why.
168. That’s the first votes in, not exit poll.
167. They Ain’t Making Jews Like Jesus Anymore. And he ran for Governor of Texas in 2006.
Proudly un-Googled!
Sky: Obama asking for more counties to keep voting in OH…
148 ukpaul, are you referring to this CNN page:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=OH
Weirdly, the Ohio state page
http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enr/f?p=152:5:0
had up until a few minutes ago the result of just one “Delegate and Alternate District”. But that result on the Ohio stage page has now been wiped and every District is zero as yet.
174 - Maybe someone confirmed they will pay out on delegates not votes?
Texas: Early returns has Obama 61-39, so these districts must by atyphical.
168. In short, yes. If they got it that wrong they ought to be working in Cracker Barrel.
179: not sure, although intrade Dem market is explicitly primary only, not the caucus.
165 - If you’re saying that Primary campaigns can’t impair a general election campaign I disagree. I’m not convinced Obama can unify the hispanic vote if Clinton’s riven the party; equally, not convinced Clinton will get anything like a huge turnout among blacks - they’ll just sit on their hands.
And Bush isn’t on the ballot; it won’t be about beating Bush. There’s a reason why the Republicans have won the White House for all but eight years in the past 28. It’s not an accident.
166 - if the exit polls are right, there’s no way Obama’s come close to winning Ohio: women make up 59% of the turnout and she won women by nine points, Obama won men but only by 5%. Whites comprise almost three quarters of the vote and Clinton’s won them.
So unless the exits are completely out, we’re looking at a 7% Clinton win.
OHIO - Clinton carrying early returns (believe early voting) in three counties.
TEXAS - Clinton carrying early returns (also EV methinks) in rural counties.
But Obama is winning:
Tarrant (Fort Worth)
Travis (Austin)
Collins (burbs north of Dallas/Fort Worth)
Montgomery (burbs north of Austin)
CNN are showing counted votes in Texas.
http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#val=TXDEMMAPPRIMARY1
She is gonna get smashed in Tx it seems, bye bye campaign.
Clinton people apparently think they will win Texas.
I’m almost hankering after the Super Tuesday chaos. Looks like we’re in for a late one.
183 Adam, if you do the math, it comes out at 51:48, a 3-point lead only, not 7.
Obama in to 1.2 with betfair for Texas.
God I’ve suddenly had an atack of boredom. Th ebetting just isnt as fun as it was earlier in teh campaign, espceially when the GOP was a contest.
Admittedly, I’ve left Hillary to run in Ohio and have layed off the small stakes bet for her in Texas for next to no gain. If she loses in Ohio I’ll have my first losing night since the primary season began.
191 - Looks like you’re safe. She’s going to be well ahead in Ohio after all the votes are in.
Secretary of state asks judge to hold open some polling places
http://www.ohio.com/news/break_news/16237067.html
183. He might not unify the Hispanic vote, but if he can get 60%+ of their vote he should win it. Hispanics voted for Obama by very large numbers in his Illinois Senate election.
OHIO
Hillary winning early voting results from Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
“There’s a red moon rising
Over the Cuyahoga River
Rolling on from Cleveland to the Lake
Burn on, big river, burn on!”
I’ve bought a few Hil Tx contracts cheap, hoping she can trade at mid 20’s.
It was either that or bed.
CNN showing 750,000 democrat votes at 1%. Huh? The population of Texas is 24 million, something a bit Soviet Union about it at first glance.
OK Folks, Just got in and checked the score, it looks like 2-2, Damn!
I’m off to bed, goodnight.
187. Where’d you hear or see that?
If there is one thing I will listen to its proper poll night comments from her people because any I’ve heard have been rather accurate.
If there was a name attached to those comments that would be useful too.
Any news from the bunker ….
197 - I noticed that, I take it that this is the early votes?
195. Judge has just ruled some districts in Cuyahoga will stay open until 9pm as a result of Obama campaign’s law suit.