Will being out-fundraised be what sinks Hillary?
March 4th, 2008
Would a $60m February Obama total trump any victories today?
One thing that we have not heard from the Obama campaign yet is how much money was raised in February and there’s speculation that this is being put on hold just in case Hillary is seen to have re-gained the momentum in today’s primaries.
Her campaign has announced that she raised $35m during the month - a move that just brought a statement from Camp Obama that they had exceeded the total without saying how much.
One US blogger who is watching this closely is Hugh Hewitt, and from what he has managed to discern is suggesting that the Obama total could exceed $60m - a sum which would be unprecedented in US political history
If Hillary does well overnight then such a massive sum would partially trump it. If Hillary comes in below expectation then a fundraising announcement from Obama could well be the last straw.
Latest US betting is here.
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Hillary will exit the race tonight/tomorrow morning.
That’s a great article Mike and a good point, there has been speculation that the figure might be “leaked” TODAY but I haven’t seen anything yet…
from previous thread..
HAS ANYONE HEARD FROM BETFAIR ON SETTLEMENT RULES FOR TEXAS?!!
Seems odd that no-one seems to know (I’ve tried) when the representative “experts” of PB.com are going to be sitting in a trading room in front of cameras when the results come in and no-one know whether to back or lay!
Mike can you call them? Maybe they will listen to someone with some gravitas…
Mike. I’ve heard from two UK based sources that the figure is closer to $70M !!
BTW … good luck in der Fuhrer Bunker tonight - Heil Highgate !!
Mike
I can’t reach you by phone. Can you put up a little reminder about tonite’s event at Elitebetting, in case anybody else wants to come?
Thanks
2 - I’m pretty sure Betfair don’t know, which is why I’ve avoided betting on Texas with them.
I’d make your point more generally - when are they going to start defining their markets properly *from the start*? Nevada was a bit of a mess, as was the late claim that ‘Next President’ only meant by election (excluding 300/1 value on Cheney).
I think Mike should ‘have a word’…
244. British things to be proud of?
How about: duffing up all the stupid little countries, conquering the seven seas, twatting the French and the Spanish time and again, thumping Hitler and Mussolini, beating up the fuzzywuzzies, colonising several continents, devising brilliant weapons, defeating vulgar little commies like you, sacking stupid coal miners, page 3 girls, viiagra, TV, the internet, Led Zeppelin, topless darts and lad magazines.
Any good?
3 LOL! Karl’s statue will be shaking with rage!
No she won’t, she’ll be beaten by running out of delegates to play for.
Won’t they just pay up when the tv networks states who has won? Although I realise that Texas has one of the more complicated methods of assigning delegates.
Clinton ahead in TX, tied in OH
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1461
6.
:) 
6. Yep, sums your lot up really. Moron.
Below is a useful guide to tonights events :
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
………………..
Close of polls - all times HMT - Highgate Mean Time.
Midnight - Vermont
12.30am - Ohio
2.00am - Rhode Island and Texas.
The Texas caucus starts at 2.15am
Additional word of caution on TX polls. The latest polls eg SUSA show 48% of people in Texas have already voted - so the benefit of a last 2 days Hillary “bounce” is blunted by that fact..
12. lol. You are a sad sad man, Borat. And yes you are a traitor. But don’t take it so personally.
Actually Borat - or Sacha Baron Cohen - makes me mildly praaaad to be British. The ribal debunking of authority is a great British tradition - from Hogarth on.
Gordon distances himself from Margaret Hodges comments:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/04/politicsandthearts.proms?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
I would hope that “being Hillary” would sink Hillary, but it would seem that’s not quite enough, because some people have decided to forgive her being thoroughly hateful because she possesses lady-parts.
But, as we all know, it’s not how much you’ve got but what you do with it that counts. And Obama has out-campaigned Hillary at almost every turn.
Re: Maggie Hodge and her wretchedness.
The Last Night of the Proms is silly, in a uniquely British way. In order to understand it, one needs to have a sense of humour and an understanding of what it is to be British.
Which obviously rules out the entire Labour front bench.
15. Hahahaha, Sacha Baron Cohen would despise an idiot like you. His whole branch of comedy comes from mocking the whole flag waving culture, and of course, how proud Americans are of their ‘War of Terror’, as he calls it.
I followed the 1996 election very closely, particularly the Republican nomination process that was eventually won by Bob Dole. $25m was considered a huge and unprecedented amount for an entire campaign back then - from pre-Iowa to November. Now in 2008 we’re talking about $60m in one month… staggering.
12. After posting your utterly contemptible and abhorent rubbish at 244 on the last thread (and subsequently) you have the bare faced audacity to call anyone else (even SeanT!) a moron. You sir, give morons a bad name, you are neither clever nor even faintly amusing but you are very annoying (which I guess is your intention) so as other have suggested, why dont you emigrate off elsewhere (I suggest LibDem voice) where you may find a more receptive and interested audience.
15. The views of a sex tourist from afar…
Cameron answers questions from guardian readers:
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/03/live_web_chat_with_david_camer.html
(From previous thread)
20 quid bet for fun?
If Obama wins all 4 i give you 20 quid.
If Obama doesnt you give me 20 quid.
Hows that sound? Yokel
So, Yokel - “Generous” really is your middle name, eh?! But I’ll re-open the bet I posted the other day - Cats v Dogs. If Hillary gets a higher delegate count (supers excluded) than Obama in any one state voted on tonight - I’ll give £10 to the cats. If not - you give £20 to the dogs. On?
(Sorry for the late response - was walking the dog…)
Interesting post about Texas over at Obsidian Wings:
http://tinyurl.com/2pbzbk
“For one, winning the popular vote matters less than winning the heavily-weighted districts. And as most people now know, those districts are Obama-friendly territory. Second, the post-election caucus results (which provide roughly a third of the delegates) can’t possibly be known for at least a week.”
Worth a read, especially the comment, which suggests that the initial reports are likely to favour Hillary, but the final delegate reports a week later will be more helpful to Obama.
22, Colin? Is that you?
[193,prev thread] “168, if you’re comparing DNA with text you’re an idiot. You can alter words, length and language and retain the same meaning of a text. Reorder DNA and you’ll end up with a cow with its internal organs on the outside.”
Um, no. DNA can accumulate a number of random mutations without it affecting the end result, and then one other single mutation can be enough to create something very different. In the same way you can make a number of changes to a sentence without it affecting the meaning, but change “do” to “don’t” and you reverse the meaning completely.
So, actually, the two are very similar.
I’m guessing this was a discussion about changes between the “Constitution” and the “Reform Treaty”? Thinking about DNA is way more interesting…
Kos predictions for tonight :
Ohio - Clinton +4%
Texas - Obama +12%
Rhode I - Clinton +6%
Vermont - Obama +35%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/4/0317/56296/476/468379
21. JH, try actually analysing a post for once before simply diving into a thesaurus to make yourself sound clever. It doesn’t impress anyone on here, and certainly not me. If you wish to criticise my post, I suggest you do it in a sensible manner. You and SeanT have a lot to learn about posting ‘utterly contempible and abhorent rubbish’, as well as ‘giving morons a bad name’.
Grow up.
And if your worst insult is ‘Lib Dem’, then I pity you. As worthless as they may be in the current political environment, I’d rather vote for them than your backward looking party, which has successfully managed to alienate itself from the public for the last 11 years thanks to people like you.
14 - That is an important point, thanks. Is there information on the extent to which other states have voted in advance? If anything, it will help Clinton in Ohio and Rhode Island (some drift in recent days - although hard to say as different polling organisations). I stick with my prediction made weeks ago that Texas will finish her, but must admit that she seems to have kept it close whereas I had a hunch Obama would get a healthy win (although he still may).
28. Obama would almost certainly increase his overall delegate lead on those figures.
And now I’m in moderation for daring to disagree with a regular poster. Democracy eh.
As much as I dislike the focus of British patriotism on the past, I actually quite like the Last Night. It’s harmless.
More disturbing is the way newspapers like the Sun encourage xenophobia when there is a big football match - certainly against Germany.
As for SeanT’S list of great British things - I think I’ll pass on lad’s mags. And if you think we thumped Hitler and Mussolini, I think you are deluded. Without the American intervention in the war? Prior to the Nazi disintegration on the Eastern front (we let the comies bear the brunt of the war, Sean) Britain hardly won a single battle. Remember Singapore? I suppose you can say we kicked them when they were down (which in their cases was not unresonable). I’m also curious as to your point regarding sacking stupid coal miners. Presumably in every other country ’stupid miners’ are in full employment.
27. It was but please dont start them off again!!!
30 - Definitely - indeed it would certainly be the knockout blow. But the 12% lead prediction for Texas looks optimistic for Obama (not impossible given the mixed caucus/primary but it would be a really impressive result and kill the race).
26. My Col would never post under another name. Proud of ‘is name ‘e is.
19. That is a very blinkered view. Sasha Baron Cohen has made great comedy riling right-wingers and left-wingers alike. Just look at his superb interview with Tony Benn: “You talk about my right to work and that, but what about my right NOT to work, know what I mean?”
This all reminds me of how various people felt about Yes, Minister. Civil servants considered it a critique of parliament, whereas MPs thought it a critique of the bureaucracy.
Small donations are “clean” donations, and if only the Obama phenomenon could spread over here then it would solve the problem of British political parties in this respect, especially Labour.
I don’t hold out much hope of this happening. But maybe if supporters of political parties had a better idea of what their money was used for it could work again. (I suspect that the story about Cherie’s expensive “Urdu” during the last election did a lot of harm.)
31. I imgaine in most other modern economies they wouldnt pay people to go a mile under the ground at vast expense to the taxpayer solely with the purpose of paying them to do it.
31, I’m pretty sure that seanT posted that list with the express intent of winding up “Borat”, who was asking the question with the intent of winding people up.
I’m not winding you up, here
If anyone’s interested in Spanish affairs…
Which Party will win the most votes?
PSOE 1/8
PP 4/1
31. You can not underestimate Britain’s role in the war. Had it not been for the UK keeping the fight alive and refusing to surrender, despite being thoroughly ungunned, outmanned and let down by the French government, the USA would no doubt have come to some accomodation with Hitler while the USSR and the Third Reich went to war with each other. Europe would have come out entirely dominated by either Socialism or Nazism, to the detriment of progress and liberty worldwide.
37. With the increasing concern about energy supplies/price inflation, maybe a re-think is needed?
27 Interesting post…
In the heat of the referendum debate, it is sad that we overlook the legal differences between the old constitution and the reform treaty. The constitution would have required the repeal of previous acts of parliament that give the EU legitimacy, whereas this treaty keeps the previous acts in place and amends them.
I know that the spirit of the treaties is similar (or the same depending on your point of view), but there is a very real difference between the two when it comes to legal implementation. The constitution would have been a completely new settlement and a referendum would have been “technically” much more justified in that case.
I suspect, that technically therefore that the LibDem and Labour positions on the referendum are actually the more correct. But real politics has very little to do with technicalities.
35 - Except that Tony Benn was the only person to come out well of an interview with Ali G, because he wasn’t scared to argue with him (in his case about teenage mothers), whereas everyone else was so concerned about ingratiating themselves with the “yoof” that they didn’t dare.
40. I can accept that, but SeanT’s point about thumping Hitler and Mussolini is silly. And again, it makes us looks ridiculous to foreigners (though I doubt that is a deterrent for Sean).
There is a difference between patriotism and Natonalism. Patriotism is the love of ones country. Nationalism is the hatred of other countries and the wish to instill your own will upon those countries. Colonialism and imperialism fall into the latter.
So while I am deeply patriotic for England and Britain, and our history, I am not proud of our colonial past (or present).
Flags and the proms have nothing to do with it.
36 - Obama’s “small donations” story is partly spun. He has done well relative to Clinton in attracting significant numbers of donations below the $2300 mark but there are some big money contributors there too.
If nominated, Obama will have to work hard to avoid being linked to Tony Rezko, who has been involved with fundraising for the Democrat establishment in Illinois and is now on trial for money laundering offences. I stress that I have no idea whether Obama actually has anything to hide on the matter. But he and US politicians generally will continue to have similar issues to those we have here in the UK regarding fundraising.
45. I have always considered the difference between nationalism and patriotism is for the first to be loud-mouthed pride, and the latter to be quiet affection.
40. Robert Harris’s Fatherland gives some idea of the alternative..it was a chilling image.
41. No..its still not a good idea to pay people to go a mile under the ground at vast expense to the taxpayer just for the sake of paying them to do it.. I imagine the money is better spent on developing ‘alternative energy’.
[40] - The only caveat I would apply to that is that Britain hardly stood alone, the entire Empire was on our side: Canada, Australia, India, …
It’s at best rude to gloss over the contribution these people also made, but whenever it comes up, it’s always “plucky Britain”, as though it were just the country between Land’s End and John O’Groats who stood against Hitler.
All countries have their myths about their history, and conveniently forgetting about the Empire in the World Wars is ours.
OT. Casino Royale. After your mind numbing “IT MAKES ME WANT TO SPIT BLOOD” post on the last thread I thought you might enjoy this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMVql9RLP34&feature=related
48. Rezko is a bigger issue for Obama during the primaries, when the facts aren’t known and people aren’t sure about the connection. By the time of the general it will have been covered so comprehensively that people will be aware. The worst connection was that he bought one sixth of a lot off the guy, which he paid… one sixth of the purchase price for. Hardly damning.
48. The Rezko allegations seem pretty thin. As far as I can tell Rezco is a fraud who sold a strip of land to Obama (sounds a bit similar to the Peter Foster Cherie Blair story).
Apparently the Clinton campaign have been pushing this story for months and the media have only just gone with it.
40. Technically, it was Germany who finally declared war on the US, not the other way around (on December 11, 1941) It’s fascinating and horrifying to think about what would’ve happened if they’d ignored their treaty obligations with Japan and let the American jingoists rush headlong into war against the nation that had the nerve to bomb Pearl Harbor.
47. Very simplistic. Not all colonialists hated other countries, by any means. Many thought they were engaged in a very noble enterprise which was very much in the interests of the native peoples in the countries concerned - especially those with religious motivations.
We may laugh at them now, but their beliefs were sincerely held.
52 I think Casino would prefer this version from the 1987 Spitting Image election special.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEfcbBtypi4
Does anyone else remember this? One of the first things that got me interested in politics as a kid. We had to get the Tories out, they looked like they were there forever.
48. Interesting point James, which I think refers to my 38. Yes, I had overlooked the possible sleazy Rezko link and Hillary is understandably playing it up. Apparently Obama nearly lost control when he was questioned about it recently.
38. Quite so! but…
44. Actually I am quite proud of our stirring martial past. Basically every tribe, sect, race, nation, state in history (until the very recent past) has tried to conquer everyone around them.
This is the human condition. Trying to moralise it, after the event, with bien pensant ethics is ludicrous.
The fact is the British are just better at fighting than almost anyone else. If the Irish had been larger in numbers and slightly less disorganised you can be damn sure they’d have been invading us and making us speak Gaelic. Rather than the other way round.
It wasn’t because they were inherently nicer than us, or because we are inherently nastier. We were just bigger harder and tougher. Good.
Being ashamed of our warrior history is like being ashamed of our coastline or something. Stupid. It just is what it is.
What’s more, towards the end we applied our warlike prowess to some rather noble aims: ending the slave trade, defeating Napoleon, scuppering Hitler, and last but not least retrieving the Falklands from a Fascist junta thereby restoring democracy to Argentina.
And our history of rampantly successful imperialism also means I can go round the world talking loudly in English. And be understood almost everywhere. Unlike the French. Heh.
54) They’ve gone with it as the first day of Rezko’s trial co-incided with the day before OH, TX - hard for the hacks NOT to go with such a slam-dunk!
Just a thought.. What happens if HRC actually does better than expected- despite being outspent by Obama? Is this NH all over again and we are back on terms with the delegates? In which case laying Obama might look like a pretty good strategy. Rezko is a bit smelly and it is now not just the Clinton campaign that is bringing it up- the journos are on the case too. Maybe the value lies with HRC…
49. I think you’re right about patriotism. However I’m not sure how proud nationalists such as the BNP actually are of their country. Most of them think it is a cesspool. It’s more hate than love. Just look at Hitler’s destruction of Berlin at the end of the war.
51. I don’t see much evidence to support the assertion that Britain has ‘forgotten’ about the imperial war effort.
But can I imagine why you might want to think that is the case.
57. Its precisely comments like Hodge’s which makes me think exactly the same about your lot
51. The greatest contributions from Australia and India were in containing the Japanese, and from Canada after D-Day onwards. Those noble sacrifices should by no means be played down, but during the period of the Battle of Britain the main assistance from the Empire was financial - although there were a handful of brave Australians in the RAF.
57. And now the roles are reversed..you had 10 more years of Conservative government at that point. God help us all if we still have another 10 years of McBroon to go…
53/54 - He’s only just gone on trial though. If he’s convicted, things could easily get messy. What if he perceives that the way to a pardon or early release is to start mouthing off until somebody makes concessions to silence him for example?
Once again, I am sure there is a very good chance that Obama met the guy a couple of times at functions and there is nothing to it. But he is a donor and I am just making the point that Obama’s campaign isn’t just about dear old grannies giving $50 and campaign finance is a minefield even if, like Obama, you have done relatively well on the smaller donations.
62. The BNP are proud of their low melanin levels far more than they are of their country.
To be patriotic means to trust the people of this country to take charge of their own affairs.
This means that few British politicians are patriotic, terrified as they are to even hand a small amount of power back to the people.
The first step in rebuilding civic pride would come from giving power back to the people, and allow them to build the country they *want* to be proud of.
Living in fear of the people is a Labour speciality.
57. Jonathon. That was brilliant! It’s interesting to compare the chilling sequence from Cabaret with the similar sequence from Casablanca.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iYbEPZVVIA&feature=related
62. I agree with your analysis, the far right tend to hark back to supposedly “better times” like the 1950’s or golden age’s which never really existed. Generally they are just unpleasant.
Which is why the mainstream need to ensure that patriotism and the flag are maintream culture and not the preserves of the extreme parties which is what we were in danger of. Things like the Proms ensure that the Union Flag is a mainstream symbol of national pride and collectivity. thats why Hodge’s comments are so perverse.
‘The fact is the British are just better at fighting than almost anyone else’
Something really to be proud of. There’s something severely wrong with you.
67. I think the Obama the idealist image somewhat obscures the fact that the guy is an extremely clever tactician. Everything I’ve researched about the guy suggests he had lofty political ambitions from a young age and his beginning of political life has been recent enough that he would have been aware of the effect of a single past dealing can produce.
That he ever had any property dealings was the man speaks to his naivety of appareances at the time, but I simply don’t believe the guy would have been foolish enough to have done something actually illegal. Even when you put that factor to one side, there’s nothing in this property deal which I could see an illegal side to.
64/66 Well that’s what a democracy is for. We’ll meet on the hustings and may the best man win. In ‘87 the Tories were virtually omnipotent, but their comeuppance was just around the corner and they fell eventually. But for now, let’s be friends and enjoy the clip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEfcbBtypi4
65. My Grandfather also had Canadians and Poles in his Spitfire squadron in 1941..I dont think the Empire’s contribution is forgotten either…but I think its right that we are reminded now and then…(Dear God I am beginning to sound like Gordon Brown!!!)
To echo most sensible comment from all sides on here, we simply cannot judge decisions made by our ancestors even as recently as 60 years ago, by today’s standards. Our entire outlook, morality and attitude to life and the living has developed because as a nation we went experienced all of the events that shaped our history and we learnt from them.
73. yeah, just ten years around the corner.
69. I agree that this Labour government presides over a hideously over-centralized country.
But exactly how did Mrs. T. give power back to the people, or allow them ‘to build the country they *want* to be proud of’?
Too many Tories seem to be airbrushing decades of recent Tory government in order to present themselves as libertarian, localist types, when in fact their party is nothing of the sort.
And please don’t bring this back to the Lisbon Treaty.
Back on topic, what if Obama’s fundraising has stalled somewhat and whilst they have exceeded Hillary’s 35million they have only hit 38-40?
65 - Don’t underestimate the economic and logistical support in the early stages though. I mean, 99.9% of British people weren’t directly involved in the Battle of Britain. The support of most of our grandparents to that enterprise was moral and economic. And although it wasn’t their shores under attack at that stage, it was effectively for much of the Empire as many would simply have fallen with Britain (not Canada/Australasia - at least not immediately - but much of the rest).
70 Roger thanks so much for that. Casablanca is amazing, especially when you consider France wasn’t liberated when it was released. So much soul, it really moves you.
If anyone is worried about the betfair rules then Intrade is running a market on the Texas primary only.
Mike, why am I in moderation?
51 in 1939 Britain was the British Empire for many of its subjects.
The British 8th Army was in many ways typical being composed of the 7th Armoured Division, 1st Army Tank Brigade & 22nd Guard Brigade (UK) the South African 1st Infantry (2nd until it was captured at Tobruk), 4th Indian Division, 2nd New Zealand Division and the Tobruk Garrison (70th Infantry UK and Carpathian Brigade Poland)
77 - I think they would then have announced it at the same time. Hillary could hardly have said it was a bad news story for Obama as it would still have been more than her. This way they trump her news story by letting it be known they have beaten her, then get another sating they have doubled it (or whatever).
76. Why not? You are implying the Lib Dems are ‘genuinely’ localist when in fact they support massive centralisation via the growth of EU power.
We all saw how serious Lib Dem commitment to localism is during Clegg’s embarassing interview about ‘Town Hall Meetings’ - you know, the ones that won’t be allowed to talk about anything he deems inappropriate.
That’s an interesting point about at least some of the people who support the BNP. They detest not only their country as it is now, but also are deeply ashamed of our role in WWI and (especially) WWII. Admittedly, not all of them think like that.
75 By comeuppance I meant the Lawson boom&bust, the poll tax riots, the fall of Thatcher and the arrival of Mr Embarrassment himself John underpants Major. All within three years of a virtually unassailable position.
85. yep, but still managed to struggle on until 1997. Even with all those problems it would still take years for the british public to kick them out, odd that, seeing as many people still go on about hating Thatcher. In the end, she never lost an election.
86 The long slow death was more painful and damaging to the Tories than a swift election loss in 92. People loved or hated Thatcher, but were rarely ambivalent.
79. It does but I wonder whether Germans are moved by the clip at 52? Like you I was moved by the Casablanca clip but remember when I first saw the scene in ‘Cabaret’ finding it one of the most chilling pieces of film-in it’s context-that I’d seen.
74. My grandfather was one of the hundreds of Polish pilots who fought in the Battle of Britain. Something which seems to have been forgotten by the editors of The Mail and Express in their constant Pole-bashing.
85. Well why I agree that Major was a bit of an embarrassment but at least he won both a leadership election and a general election legitimising his position as Prime Minister..Your own party’s embarrassment cannot claim either achievement and there is a very good possibility he never will.
76. 83. I agree that Thatcher’s leadership was pretty centralist. I do think that John Major wanted to restore powers to the people, but was too politically weak and distracted to actually go about doing it. Nevertheless, I consider the Conservatives to be the most genuinely localist party these days, considering the Lib Dems views on centralising power to an undemocratic EU.
88 It is one of the most powerful pieces of cinema.
89 You should be very proud. My grandfather was one of British troops that liberated Belsen. As you might imagine it has shaped my families view on the war and poltics. The Richard Dimbleby clip shows how lucky we are.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/4445811.stm
74. Yes, the Poles should rightly take their fair share of credit for the Battle of Britain. I think one people that do get overlooked is the Irish, who came over in their millions to volunteer for the British army, despite the contemptible stance of their government.
@76, 83, 91:
Thatcher was no more patriotic than Brown is. Neither of them trusted the British people to govern their own affairs, which to me explicitly negates any claim either of them had to being true patriots.
Nevertheless, Tories have a more instinctive feel of the need for a smaller centre, and trusting people to take charge of their own existence. It can certainly be argued that Thatcher was a special case, because she inherited a moribund country, and needed to jumpstart it from the centre.
That’s happened, unfortunately her heirs never started to return the power to the people that most Tories instinctively think is the British birthright.
We can argue about why Thatcher’s children didn’t follow through (Major’s need to hold his fragile coalition together, Blair’s ego, Brown’s cowardice), but their time is over.
The new localist agenda’s time has come, and that and only that can truly make people proud to be British again- and it starts with being proud of their street, their neighbourhood, their town, their county. One step at a time.
Meanwhile III …. James Joyner of ‘Outside the Beltway’ predicts a Clinton win in Ohio by 5 points and a narrow delegate win for Obama in Texas :
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/03/texas_and_ohio_primary_predictions/
93. in their millions?
Question - Hills and other bookies have books open on the Texas priamry. Are they being settled on primary popular vote or caucus votes or delegates or a combination of the above?
93. No - the number of volunteers from south of the border was about 70000. And the reason they have been forgotten is precisely because of the contemptible stance of their government.
http://www.reform.org/TheReformMovement_files/article_files/articles/war.htm
92. Who do you hold responsible for the condition of the inmates of Bergen-Belsen, apart from the British and Americans?
94. “Tories have a more instinctive feel of the need for a smaller centre, and trusting people to take charge of their own existence.”
In other words, “You can get it if you really want.”
This is where the dividing line between Tories and Liberals lies. Conservatives want a smaller state, full stop, so that businesses and private citizens can do what they want with what they have. Liberals believe in the need for the state to redistribute resources, without which many people cannot take charge of their own existence; and are much more focussed on making the state responsive to local citizens and communities through decentralization.
Which is the true localism? You pays your money and you takes your choice. But a localism that doesn’t take account of the economic and social circumstances in which many Britons live, seems to me an unnecessarily limited form of empowerment.
94
Centralism was brought in largely because Liverpool and other cities were run by nutters who were determined to raise business rates and to hell with the consequences.. indirectly leading to the Poll Tax..
Personally I have no problem with decentralising leading to the economic collpase of (say) Sunderland or Liverpool or parts of London… cos it means politicians become repsonsible again…
But will people accept that?
96. I meant thousands. God knows why I said millions.
93. What was precisely “the contemptible stance of their government”?
103. to stay neutral, then accept a few nazi war criminals as residents after the war.
A good summing up of Hillary’s current surge:
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/03/late_surge_in_polls_by_clinton.html
Good lord. Is that not one of the most nauseating sentences you have ever read?
Dear Barack, I believe in the politics of hope.
I’m going to vomit.
99 - Care to explain that one?
@Jack Peterson:
It’s the difference between “Yes We Can” and “Yes You Can”. It’s a subtle question as to which is best, but the former, for all Obama’s charm, still carries the subtle hint of “Daddy knows best”.
Politicians don’t always know best, but thinking they do is what has landed this country in the stink in the first place.
99 Not sure quite what you’re getting at - you sound provocative - but to answer your question I think Kramer et al. were found responsible for the conditions at Belsen.
http://www.stephen-stratford.co.uk/belsen_defendents.htm
104. So, you would apply the same criteria to Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal, Spain and any other country which remained neutral, including the US up to 1941, presumably?
110. I didnt make the statement, just put it in context. and as for the war criminals bit, yes i do.
110. I do, yes.
109. How convenient.
In a March 1, 1945, letter to Gruppenführer Richard Glücks, head of the SS camp administration agency, Commandant Kramer reported in detail on the catastrophic situation in the Bergen-Belsen, and pleaded for help:
“If I had sufficient sleeping accommodation at my disposal, then the accommodation of the detainees who have already arrived and of those still to come would appear more possible. In addition to this question a spotted fever and typhus epidemic has now begun, which increases in extent every day. The daily mortality rate, which was still in the region of 60-70 at the beginning of February, has in the meantime attained a daily average of 250-300 and will increase still further in view of the conditions which at present prevail.
Supply. When I took over the camp, winter supplies for 1500 internees had been indented for; some had been received, but the greater part had not been delivered. This failure was due not only to difficulties of transport, but also to the fact that practically nothing is available in this area and all must be brought from outside the area …
For the last four days there has been no delivery [of food] from Hannover owing to interrupted communications, and I shall be compelled, if this state of affairs prevails till the end of the week, to fetch bread also by means of truck from Hannover. The trucks allotted to the local unit are in no way adequate for this work, and I am compelled to ask for at least three to four trucks and five to six trailers. When I once have here a means of towing then I can send out the trailers into the surrounding area … The supply question must, without fail, be cleared up in the next few days. I ask you, Gruppenführer, for an allocation of transport …
State of Health. The incidence of disease is very high here in proportion to the number of detainees. When you interviewed me on Dec. 1, 1944, at Oranienburg, you told me that Bergen-Belsen was to serve as a sick camp for all concentration camps in north Germany. The number of sick has greatly increased, particularly on account of the transports of detainees that have arrived from the East in recent times — these transports have sometimes spent eight or fourteen days in open trucks …
The fight against spotted fever is made extremely difficult by the lack of means of disinfection. Due to constant use, the hot-air delousing machine is now in bad working order and sometimes fails for several days …
A catastrophe is taking place for which no one wishes to assume responsibility … Gruppenführer, I can assure you that from this end everything will be done to overcome the present crisis …
I am now asking you for your assistance as it lies in your power. In addition to the above-mentioned points I need here, before everything, accommodation facilities, beds, blankets, eating utensils — all for about 20,000 internees … I implore your help in overcoming this situation.”
52. Haha - I’m not biting!
If your limited intellectual abilities prevent you from drawing a distinction between jovial patriots who like to proclaim their love for their country and Nazism, then that reflects worse on you than it does me!
Poor old Wodger
110. Not hard in the case of fascist Spain and Portugal, nor money-grubbing Sweden and Switzerland - though the geography and traditions of the latter provide at least some excuse.
As for the US, they were late, but at least in earnest.
Personally the pathetic, cowardly collapse and collaboration of France annoys me far more than the neutrals though.
112 - You can’t compare the stances of different countries in such a simplistic way. Admirable though the British stance was, our position was at least defensible albeit at significant cost, in that we had the personnel (including from the Empire), finances, and a major natural barrier to defend in the form of the Channel. Had Sweden, say, taken a similar stand it would have been suicidal.
115 - The surrender of 3 million troops in one of the world’s most powerful countries in 6 weeks really does take the biscuit.
Betfair say on their website that the market is on the ‘Texas PRIMARY’
Which Democratic candidate will win the named Presidential Primary? This market will be turned in-play at the stated time. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their own positions. ALL BETS STAND RUN OR NOT. Users should be aware they are NOT allowed to bet on this event if they are physically present in Austria or Germany.
IMHO since they have continually emphasised the word primary they could be in some serious hot water if they include caucus results .
113 Not sure why your making this point.
I am simply proud of a 24 year old man sent to fight for his country, who was forever damaged by the appalling sights he witnessed first hand. I am not interested in blame. I only brought it up, because up thread people asked what are you proud of and I thought of him. Sorry if that offends you.
99 The people who put them there.
103 To refuse to give any credit to those who volunteered. Given the state of Irish air defences (non-existent) staying neutral was the wise course of action.
117. And how long do you think Ireland might have lasted, had it become a belligerent? Its “airforce” in 1939 consisted of one spotter plane, its tank force consisted of a few Austin Sevens dressed as “armoured cars”, its navy a few fishing-smacks. Irish “neutrality” may in fact have saved England’s bacon…
Aargh, this site is turning into http://www.worldwartwodebate.com again. But thanks to socrates for his brilliant definitions at 49, and Jonathan and Roger for reminding us of that Casablanca scene.
24: I’ll take your bet on behalf of the Broxtowe cats if you like, Mark? They’ve not had a flutter lately, and are queasily eyeing the Boris surge… Accept by this evbening 10pm to make it definite!
PS Assume that if she does it in more than one state the cats also win - you’re not “saying one and only one”?
I notice that WillHill has Texas up. Has anybody checked how they define a win? If it is delegates, their 4/6 on Obama looks attractive.
117? Weren’t many French people waiting for their failing Republic to collapse? Perhaps they weren’t as united behind their government as the Brits?
As for SeanT’s pointa bout Brits being good fighters I’m not sure i agree. Well organised, disciplined and technologically advanced is how I tend to see it. I think man to man, the Japanese were better fighters than us during WW2.
120. Do you honestly think that if the war situation had been exactly reversed, the inmates of the internment camps in Britain would have fared any better?
113. You obviously missed Rod’s.. err…’interesting’ views on the holocaust onm a previous thread.
126 - That comment is a (truly awful) joke right?
126: We had interment camps in Britain, and the death toll in them was below the statistical average.
The Swedes were in a difficult postion certainly! They did however have a strange interpertation of the term neutrality. On the 18th of June 1940 they gave the Germans permission to use the Swedish Railways to transport German munitions to the Norwegian front. German soldiers were also allowed to travel across Sweden to go on leave to Germany.
The most noteworthy concession was the transport of the, ‘Engelbrecht Division’ from Norway to Finland on the 22nd of June 1941, to assist in ‘Barbarossa’
The Norwegians have never really forgiven them.
Disappointed that Nick Palmer didn’t offer any defence of Margaret Hodge, in the wake of David Cameron’s OTT reaction.
I think we need to move on. Apologies for my part in opening old wounds.
This is clearly the lull before today’s real excitement. To change the topic and to probe the wisdom of crowds.
Will Hillary still be in the race this weekend? Yes or No?
She’ll be half-in until Pennsylvania, but nobody will really believe she’s trying any more, least of all her.
120, 121. The Irish state may well have taken a heck of a beating from German bombers, but the many, many more troops they could have provided could have been invaluable to the early war effort. When faced with the prospect of a brutal, expansive regime threatening to become the hegemon of Europe every country should have fought on the side of liberty, especially democratic ones.
131 - That’s because she is indefensible. Trying to make out that the Proms are elitist or exclusive would be risible coming from anyone else. From the Minister for Culture it is disgraceful.
128. Starvation and disease are quite apolitical.
127. Lot’s of people have interesting views on many subjects, including what is known as the holocaust. Apparently, the Israelis think a holocaust can be exported to the Palestinians. You are of course free to “deny” or “minimize” this holocaust, or place it in its proper context. After all its a free country, isn’t it?
Paging Mr Godwin.
126 It’s always hard to answer hypotheticals, but I suspect the answer is “yes.” At any rate, they would have fared no worse than the UK population as a whole. Our internees were, after all, expected to emerge alive from internment. The Nazis’ internees weren’t.
132. Regrettably, yes. I’m hoping for an Obama win as soon as possible, but Clinton’s support is oddly resilient and she will probably take at least one of Ohio and Texas.
If Clinton can take more delegates than Obama tonight - i.e. close the delegate gap at all - then I think she’ll claim a victory and a change of momentum. It’s slippery tactics, but she has enough votes out there to stay in the game until someone - Bill, Howard Dean, or the superdelegates - tells here to get out of there and let Obama take on McCain.
136: As the Palestinian population increases annually it’s a rather ineffectual ‘holocaust’.
129. Quite true, but I said “if the war situation had been exactly reversed”, meaning the near-total destruction of supply and communication lines, combined with millions of fleeing refugees in state that was disintegrating.
136. Thank you Rod for confirming that you believe the Israeli actions of today are somehow equivalent to the Nazi extermination campaigns of WWII - something you hinted at before.
Readers may draw their own conclusions about your motivations for holding this view, I’ve certainly drawn mine.
136 - No the Israeli General said shoah meaning disaster, not Hashoah meaning holocaust.
138. “At any rate, they would have fared no worse than the UK population as a whole..” Precisely. I rest my case. Do you know how many German civilians died of starvation and disease, not just in the final months of the war, but in the 5 years after it ended?
141 People didn’t just die in Belsen, Auschwitz etc. in the final weeks of the war, as supplies and communications broke down. People were sent there to be put to death in a variety of ways.
Interesting remarks by Karl Rove here who is suggesting the longer the Clinton/Obama struggle goes on the better it is for the Democrats and that the final selection of their candidate at their convention will ensure the Democrats get all the media attention until August and thereby diminishing the impact of McCain’s campaign? Presumably he is a republican troll?!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,334768,00.html
136. You should be allowed to advocate whatever views you want. But other people should be allowed to ridicule the ridiculous ones.
136 you are intelligent enough to know that this was a mistranslation of the Hebrew by PA. It is not the fault of Israeli ministers if people can’t translate their words correctly. Of course “anti zionist” anti-semitism is OK on the left.
People can take different views on the whole Palestinian issue (some might wonder to what extent you have to allow people to fire rockets at you indiscrminately without acting and others might wonder why a wealthy country doesn’t seek to promote economic development in its poorer neighbour and thus benefit all and reduce the tension between them).
See 145. The inhabitants of the camps fared very much worse than the German population as a whole.
141 - Perhaps, but the (rather important) distinction is that we didn’t send people to them just for being Jewish or part of any other minority group (gays, gypsies, blacks etc)
We should remind ourselves that nearly 40,000 Irish citizens served in the UK forces, that includes 7,000 who deserted from the Irish armed forces.
However de Valera would not, (despite enormous coercion) join the allies. Even when economic sanctions (disguised as shortages) were taken against the Irish, which led to severe rationing, de Valera would not budge.
The Americans in particular were furious, particularly as they felt, Ireland would never have gained independence without their support.
Sad but inevitable to see some of our regular Labour posters revealing their deeply-felt anti-British motivations. I’ve never understood how anyone born and brought up in this country could fail to be patriotic, given our wonderful history.
It must be some psychological quirk.
135. I don’t think Margaret Hodge is indefensible, she’s just a very inept politician. Whether she’s antagonising the right with these witless and banal prom remarks, or annoying the left with that idiotic BNP crap, she just can’t help putting her expensively-shod foot in it.
The mystery is why is she still in power? Indeed why does someone as inane and pointless as Hodge even get a sniff of a ministerial job? I’m sure our own Nick Palmer could do a lot better, and I mean that sincerely even as I despise his politics. At least Nick is logical.
Nor is she alone in her bizarrely talentless success. Alistair Darling? Hazel Blears? From which polluted river of mediocrity do Labour dredge these people?
145. Indeed, and the records of such extermination tactics were recorded with stringent accuracy. The Holocaust is the most documented genocide in history by its own perpetrators.
Well, maybe this is turning into worldwar2.com, but I think if you look at the whole thread it is clear that SeanT started it and I merely retaliated.
Was Hi-de-Hi an accurate portrayal of life in an internment camp?
152. Has anyone been anti-british on this thread?
Left-wingers such as myself and Jonathan have remarked on our sense of pride for being British. Could you give me the post numbers?
What are the odds on WWII?
144. Rod - out of interest do you think Julius Streicher was a ‘martyr’, as well?
134 - I always find it strange when English people (it is usually, but not always, English people) express surprise that the Irish government should not have laid down its newly won independence in defence of the country it had to fight against to win that independence less than 20 years earl