“Super Tuesday 2″ - live from Elite
March 5th, 2008
A typically relaxed PtP awaits news from Ohio & Texas
Firstly, very special thanks to Harry for hosting us tonight at Elite - we have now all been in position at our trading desks since about 9pm. The biggest profit so far has been on a greyhound race at Hall Green (thanks to an insider’s tip!) although I’m sure that will change!
We are all tuned to CNN and Fox watching events unfold and this has been an excellent “dry-run” for US Election Night in November.
The “bunker” is calling Texas for Obama and Ohio for Hillary - Rhode Island still too close.
How will the Democrat race look after tonight (how much longer will it go on for?) and will McCain “go over the top” for the GOP nomination?
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
MessageSpace Advertising
Good evening!
Has it helped your information flow being on a “trading floor” chaps?
Some has nicked the 6 for Hillary on Betfair…
Is Jack W back?
I think we should be told!
That is bigger than the US presidential elections after all!
They say that 2m people voted early in Texas, so we probably should get another release early results soon.
and now there s more money at 6…this is HRC in Texas by the way.
TEXAS
Obama now carrying early voting results from Dallas and Harris (Houston) counties
3. Old news Benedict!
Hi Political Capital - a definite yes on that one.
TEXAS
Obama is carrying Jeff Davis County in far west Texas.
Wonder what ole Jeff would’ve made of THAT???
Re 7, Socrates, “3. Old news Benedict!”
Your sh1tt1ng me?
Why didn’t I get an email?
Can anyone tell me what accent this CNN woman has? It’s been bothering me for months!
11. whats her name?
11- brit expat surely
TEXAS
Clinton is carrying early voting results from Bexar (San Antonio) but not by huge margin in this Latino stronghold
BTW, former New Deal congressman from San Antonio was Maury Maverick, who’s family gave the word to the English (or at least American) language.
4 - Well about 1.1 million have been counted, including the GOP race, so far.
11: that’s just a Brit who’s been in the states for years
You should hear a friend of mine, he has lower highland Scots combined with a texas drawl, quite disturbing…..
Obama 65% in Travis country, that’s pretty hefty.
11) Some Northern border state? Sounds a bit Canadian…
What’s the evidence that Clinton has clinched OH? As far as I can see there are about 1000 women in the CNN exit poll, breaking 54:45. Even if they have an unbiased sample (unlikely), this key majority group could easily break 52:47 (or 56:43, of course). The bias is likely to be greater than the random error. So I would say the exit poll isn’t decisive.
Surely there must be further evidence, since people are piling in at under 1.15 - too risky, in my view.
Is it Colleen McEdwards?
Shes a Canuck if it is.
12. Abi Tatton. It sounds like a weird mix of East coast, Midwest and British.
3 Blimey, Benedict - where have you been for the past five days??
VERMONT
Hillary is winning just one county, Essex in far NE VT but just by a hair
TEXAS
Many caucuses are late getting started, because people are still in line waiting to vote. NPR has a reporter on the ground at a school in Brownsville waiting for caucus to begin.
18) Agreed. People are over keen to lump on… The only OH areas that have voted seem rural.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#TXDEMMAPprimary
Map of Ohio vote breakdown so far.
Shes English.
cnn is reporting that Bush will endorse Mccain, I suppose they want to get it out of the way pretty quick.
SSI - Was it Kinky Friedman who did a memorable homage to America’s classic beginning “I Rode Across the Desert on a Horse With No Legs”
26, He already has.
Re 21, Peter fro putney “3 Blimey, Benedict - where have you been for the past five days??”
Busy, you know that!
Jack W good to see you back!
TEXAS
Clinton is winning early returns out of Nueces (Corpus Christi) where Dem vote is heavily Hispanic.
But Obama is wining Fort Bend (burbs south of Houston) which has a significant Black population.
Rhode Island still too close
Really?? Betfair has it last matched 1/4 in favour of Hillary!!!
25. There’s a very unEnglish twang to it.
Abi Tatton is British.
31) I saw exits showing them neck/neck - we’ll know in 15 mins…
27 - Might have been, Shadsy, am not familiar with that but certain sounds like the Kinkster’s style!
His classic hit is “Asshole from El Paso”
32: wikipedia says leeds, schooled britain, uni US, and presumably there for the past 15 years. It was certainly a weird mix
Who the heck took that nice 6.0 on Texas-Clinton? Was grabbing it and disappeared under my fingerprints :-()
Clinton OH price on Betfair collapses below 1.1. Unusually, I feel we (or just me?) are behind the info curve here on PB.com.
Of course there’s also the classic Jerry Jeff Walker song:
“Up agains the wall
Redneck mothers!
Mothers who have raised
Your sons so well
He’s 34 and drinking
In a honky tonk
Kicking hippies asses
And raising hell!”
36, Its popped up 2 or 3 times now, someone is offering.
Looking at the breakdown of Texas votes so far it looks like the majority of votes counted are in Obama strongholds i.e. urban areas with large african american populations. My own positions are covered in TX thanks to some ARBing courtesy of Paddy Power today but it’s surely too early for Obama to be trading at 1.17. This seems reminiscent of the trading in NH as well as Missouri when people read the early results as gospel.
136 & etc - now leave the poor girl and her accent alone. After all she’s a “recovering Brit”!
37 - Could be those Canadians again!
What time will we expect to see Tx caucus results coming out? 5am?
40) - those are continuing counts Ernesto. The urban areas aren’t done yet.
CNN suggesting irregularities in Ohio. I think the computers have crashed with shock that HRC will win a state
40. was there much of arb available. I just about got out in profit on Clinton after backing her at 5/2.
140 - In Texas, Obama is also taking (so far anyhow) some large urban (Travis) and suburban (Collins) with counties with relatively few Black voters.
37 Martin - calling Rhode Island “too close to call” at the top of this thread, I’d have to agree with you!
143 - They cannot begin Texas caucuses until everyone in the precinct who was in line when the polls closed has voted.
40. The early voting results are breaking 56-44 to Obama. If the exit polls from today’s voting were correct in having it 50-50, then it’s Obama’s.
But on the same principle - we don’t know how the Ohio early voting will break. Still too close to call, that one, I reckon.
Damned Canadians!
Not overly busy here at Ladbrokes. We’ve seen some Charlie Crist fans backing their man to be Republican vp nominee. He’s now 4/1JF.
We’ve laid 15 different candidates for that race now. In order of bad news for us -
Romney
Crist
Thompson
Lieberman
Palin
Sanford
BOOO - Obama can’t even accept losing ONE state. LAW SUITS?!?
I’m sure that CNN were saying earlier today that some polls in Ohio have been given permission to stay open for 10 days due to bad weather. Has this been confirmed?
52 - You not been listening to the Clinton whinging in Texas then?
51. Its about time people got round to backing Charlie.
I so very very much doubt McCain would pick Romney. If he did it’d be with a gun to his head and even then McCain woudl consider death first.
Any money at all for Sonny Perdue?
No its not a made up name.
I’m beginning to wonder, hving great bets on Crist, Sanford and very pop at the Huckster, the last one layed off for good money whether McCain is seeking a national profile figure.
‘very early pop’
Hehe, yup, from The Corner:
——————
Team Clinton is about to hold an “Emergency Press Call to Discuss Caucus Intimidation and Irregularities in TX”
——————
54. Or in Nevada.
TEXAS
Obama is carrying Blanco County (Johnson City, home of LBJ) and also neighboring Gillespie (site of LBJ Ranch) which I’m taking as a good omen!
Obama is also winning early voting returns from Jefferson (Beaumont - Orange) which was home turf to Janis Joplin.
54 - But Clinton loses everywhere
Nothing for Sonny, he’s on the list. I was originally going to be 100/1 Romney, luckily was talked out of it but laid 33s (to a few pb.com faces I believe)
Huckabee about to drop out, says Huckabee aide.
So the political obituaries of 4/5 March: Ian Paisley, Lee Jasper, Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton. A small but perceptible move forward for civilisation.
CNN project McCain confirmed tonight
CNN: McCain wins the GOP nomination
51 Not overly busy here at Ladbrokes.
Might this be because you’ve taken down some of your markets?
CNN sticks head out, and predicts McCain wins GOP nomination.
He’s only about 900 delegates ahead……
62. And Bush to endorse McCain…
I think Mccain may very well go with a female vp, particularly if Obama gets the dems nod.
CNN has just projected that Mccain has just reached 1191 and has won the nomination.
61. Can you link me who’s currently listed?
CNN exit Rhode Island
Clinton 52
Obama 48
TEXAS
Obama carrying Loving County in West Texas on the banks of the Pecos, with 20% of precincts reporting.
Exact numbers are:
Obama = 3 votes
Clinton = 2 votes
Note that Loving County has the smallest population of ANY county in the US.
CNN exit Texas
Clinton 51
Obama 49
If these are all right then Clinton is out. She may not accept it but she’s out.
57 - sounds very nasty
Texas-Clinton intrade just went nuts, from 25 to 50 in an instant. That’s a huge buy.
Soembody must know something?
44.Political Capital Agree but the hundreds of thousands are the results of the early voting. If there has been a swing to HRC then it isn’t detected in the current results. Still believe that naivety is driving Obama’s TX price down.(risen to 1.35 as I write)
46 Yokel - PP put Obama up at 1.72 and 1.49/1.5 was available to lay for a good hour until someone weighed in heavily and PP dropped the price.
74 - Not sure of the terminology but the lack of a clear margin of victory in exits meaning that people are drifting away from her?
72. Of course she’s out, but apparently her new strategy is:-
“Forget everything that’s happened in the Democratic nomination process. Choose the candidate based on who you think can win the swing states…”
Even Clinton 52-48 really isn’t enough. She’ll have to win the following states on average of about 60%, especially N Carolina and Pen which looks impossible. BHO will have to do something breathtakingly disastrous to lose. Still it looks like she’ll do enough to justify staying in.
65 Sorry PfP. We suspend them every time a poll closes, just in case the states get called.
Full Rep vp betting
Charlie Crist 4/1
Tim Pawlenty 4/1
Mark Sanford 8/1
Mike Huckabee 8/1
Mitt Romney 8/1
Condoleezza Rice 12/1
Joe Lieberman 12/1
Haley Barbour 14/1
Kay Bailey Hutchinson 16/1
Rob Portman 16/1
David Petraeus 20/1
Fred Thompson 20/1
Rudy Giuliani 20/1
Bobby Jindal 25/1
Chuck Hagel 25/1
Jim Demint 25/1
John Kasich 25/1
Lindsay Graham 25/1
Richard Burr 25/1
Sonny Perdue 25/1
Steve Forbes 25/1
Colin Powell 33/1
J.C. Watts 33/1
Jeb Bush 33/1
John Thune 33/1
Michael Steele 33/1
Phil Gramm 33/1
Sarah Palin 33/1
Michael Bloomberg 50/1
Mike Pence 50/1
Ron Paul 100/1
174 - or someone thinks they know something
Shadsy, better watch out that Brian Mulroney isn’t trying to pull a fast one on you!
re 72 No if she wins the popular vote in TX and OH she’s not necessarily out. True, she probably cannot win from a draw today. but it wouldn’t be a good moment (2 or 3 narrow wins) to force her out.
for what it’s worth, I doubt she will win the votes in TX and OH, so actually sense she could be out tonight…but that’s different to arguing she’s out if exit polls are right.
61.
I’m trawling some information on national profile GOP figures who fit the safe pair of hands description. Either that or a serious cross decker who could easily sit in or has sat in Democrat circles. I don’t mean Lieberman, someone more home spun.
As yet I am not confident I have it all covered though but have loads of room to play. I do think Crist is on the shortlist, in fact I’m sure he is.
I have no idea on the Dems VP market at all, just never caught my interest.
61.
I’m trawling some information on national profile GOP figures who fit the safe pair of hands description. Either that or a serious cross decker who could easily sit in or has sat in Democrat circles. I don’t mean Lieberman, someone more home spun.
As yet I am not confident I have it all covered though but have loads of room to play. I do think Crist is on the shortlist, in fact I’m sure he is.
I have no idea on the Dems VP market at all, just never caught my interest.
IEM latest.
Clinton now running at 0.131
Obama running at 0.834
Looks about right to me, maybe Clinton a little on the high side.
Huckster is out - Fox
Come on all you lot in the bunker - what’s happening in Texas?
85 - so they’ve pushed finding all the baptist evangelicals to target them in november to the limit then.
CNN TExas exits showing CLinton winning women (57%) by 7%, but losing men by 6%.
88 - so in line with expectation then
82.
Zell Miller
or even
Mark Warner
Harold Ford Jr?
I don’t think people quite get this about Clinton.
This is not about spreadsheet counting of pledged delegates. This is about her hanging on until she has battered the hell out of it.
If shes got any chance whatsoever shes probably going to stay in. If she tales Ohio and Texas, states lest we forget that people were calling for Obama in some cases, shes got an excuse to keep going.
McCain’s coronation surely increases the pressure on the Dems for closure?
RHODE ISLAND
Clinton is carrying southern RI counties of Washington & Warwick, but on the other side of Narragansett Bay, Obama is winning the mean streets of Newport County.
PfP - PtP says we think Obama will win Texas but we’re not going home yet - RI could be interesting. Obama with big leads in the cities in TX but Hillary cleaning up most of the rest of the state.
91. Like some women I’ve known, she may be prepared to trash the house if she can’t get her own way….
TEXAS
Clinton is garnering 70% in early voting returns from lower Rio Grande Valley
90 Harold Ford Jnr lost his senate election in 06, albeit it narrowly. I think that’ll make it very difficult for him
They are crunching Texas numbers here to see who wins the state. Not just the vote but who gets the delegates by district.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pJ0M6W5tNQCPLz7oU3-llfg
91. Oh, I think your analysis of her intent is spot on Yokel. But fortunately it’s not entirely in her hands: there is a mood in the Democrats (especially as the Republicans now have a candidate) to put an end to this.
We’ll see that in the announcement tomorrow that several super delegates will be declaring for Obama. I suspect Bill Richardson may well come off the fence. Howard Dean probably won’t publicly, but behind the scenes there’ll be tremendous pressure to close this down.
In which case it ceases being about what Hillary bratishly wants; it becomes about what’s best for the party. Another few months of her irresponsibly trashing Obama while the Republicans rally around McCain is not what’s best for the party.
IEM latest.
Clinton now running at 0.130
Obama running at 0.836
Money Talking
Malcolm
Huckabee speaks….
101 - live feed?
Warner has come up certainly.
What I’m thinking for a possible shock cross decker is, I suppose a ‘Reagan Democrat’ figure.
McCain’s people are hinting that what matters most is experience, someone rock solid be they national profile or a well respcted state figure. Thats my only doubt about Crist. He is respectedand I’m sure he could make national profile but I dont know if he carries enough weight. He could build that I suppose.
86. Never mind Texas what about RI? Looking at the full exit poll I reckon HRC will just squeeze it. Won’t she?
102 -
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Primaries/page?id=4218669
I think she is going to stay in no matter what happens tonight. Obama over the last couple of days has started to get a bit more rougher treatment from the press, and he hasn’t performed that well. So she can hope that he slips up.
However Obama is pretty much guaranteed to win North Carolina and Mississippi by a ratio of 2-1. So he will probably open up the delegate gap some more.
101. Sky news
Fox has called RI for clinton
105 - thanks UKpaul
Nice folksy speech by Huckster again.
re 108 - seems a bit brave - Missouri all over?
Huck’s wife in tears. The Preacher Man quoting the apostle Paul and the prophet Isaiah…
Great joke from the Huckatron.
110
I think he’s a top speaker. Compare him Brown - no contest.
In both Ohio and Texas, very few precinct returns from big counties, but the rurals are starting to come in.
Clinton is crushing Obama in southeastern Ohio by 2/1 or better. She devoted a full day to this region, which is only about 1/20 or thereabouts of the Democraic primary vote.
In Ohio, little of Obama’s natural turf has reported numbers yet
This won’t mean anything to most of you, but Huckabee’s wife is the spitting image of Frank McAvennie.
Is this the Huckster or a more appealing edwards?
116 - could you explain the reference?
I like Huck, but this is boring now.
Huckster is a fantastic public speaker in these kind of environments, although I’m not sure what he would be like in delivering a heavy speech such as State of the Union.
118 West Ham, wasn’t he? Big hair.
111 - CNN has called it as well.
116 - HAHHAHAHHAAAA you are not wrong.
I love the way the Republicans (well, McCain and Huck) make speeches, but I would definitely be a registered Democrat were I a Yank.
Still think I’d vote McCain over HRC or BO though. Clinton seems odiously arrogant and Obama seems dismally vacuous.
Scottish footballer. Played for Celtic and West Ham. Cult figure due to his love of the high life when he made it to the top. But he just really looks like her:
http://www.pridegames.com/new/img/frankmcavennie.jpg
120. Huckabee will never be President now. He clearly aimed throughout his campaign to solidify his base rather than try to lower the religious aspect and gain broader appeal.
125. I think I’d make him 50/1 for 2012 if Obama ends up President this time.
116
Yes, ha ha, well spotted.
I can close my Hil Tx longs now for about +15 but I think there’s more to come.
TEXAS
Obama wins Loving County with 100% reporting
Obama = 7 votes
Clinton = 5
Edwards = 5
Richardson = 4
Dodd = 1
Thinking of 2012, when was the last time a sitting President lost his Party’s nomination in a contest second time around? Or even came close to losing?
Why does McCain want a Bush endorsement on March 5th? Not a good move in my opinion.
126. I’d add a zero to those odds!
OHIO
Obama is now winning in Franklin (Columbus), Summit (Akron) and (barely) Lucas (Toledo)
130. If he didn’t the news channels would ask why, it would become a bigger story that would rile the Right wing base (not to mention the party establishment he’ll need onside for funding).
I think Clinton has won Ohio, She seems to have done very well in the rural areas and is close enough in the urban areas to win this.
134 - As expected but much closer than it ever should have been for her. The fact that Texas is in play at this stage is pretty astonishing, I thought he could run her close and take more delegates but Obama is doing very well with vote numbers.
129 - Would you count LBJ in 1968? Was knocked of the race by underperforming in New Hamsphire primary.
Teddy Roosevelt gave William Taft a run for his money in 1912
Chester Arthur (who like LBJ was VP who got the big job when #1 was assassinated) was not given a 2nd chance in 1884.
Rutherford B. Hayes (known to Democrats as “Rutherfraud”) was denied chance of renomination in 1880.
As was Andrew Johnson in 1868, not a surprise!
Plenty of antebellum one-term wonders.
Betfair is still showing Obama as the hot favourite to win Texas, despite CNN showing Hillary ahead by 3%.
137 - my CNN doesn’t say that it say BHO 53% in the primary
Here goes McCain’s speech.
His eyes look a little bit wierd tonight.
Can there be a more inappropriate introductory riff than “Eye Of The Tiger” for John McCain? Rocky Balboa - John McCain. John McCain - Rocky Balboa. Nah.
A mangy old blind tiger maybe.
He’s wearing a strobing tie. Poor judgement - is he fit to be President?
129. Carter was crippled in 1980, and Johnson in 1968 and Truman in 1952 withdrew after poor showings in early primaries. In the 19th Century it was common for a one-term president to be ditched by his party: Fillmore, Pierce, Andrew Johnson spring to mind. I think Chet Arthur was the last incumbent to fight all the way to the convention and lose, in 1884….
eh! According to the CNN county results for Texas, Armstrong county is now 100% complete, with it being a score draw of 0-0
134 - zero votes reported from Cleveland or Cincinnati
144. Isn’t that a no score draw?
National greatness National greatness National greatness National greatness National greatness yada yada yada. He really is a dull speaker.
143. Let’s imagine Obama wins in November in a reasonably closely fought campaign. I wonder what price he should be to win again in 2012? I’ll guess 4/7.
Jeez, McCain suffering an attack of bronchitis on the podium…
145 - the early vote from Cleveland is now up - Clinton a fraction ahead.
Is he reading this from a teleprompter, or has he memorised it? Either way, it’s not working for him.
OHIO
Cuyahoga Co just released early voting numbers, show Clinton slightly ahead
Mahoning (Youngstown) with 89% pct reporting
Clinton = 51%
Obama = 47%
which is pretty good for Obama in the rust belt
147 Good public speaking is a skill - people who have had to do it for a living like preachers (Huckabee), trial lawyers (Edwards, Blair) and actors (Reagan) are better at it. The uninterrupted set piece speeches of the US Senate on the other hand would be very poor preparation for a speaker.
If he says “my friends” one more time, I’m going to scream.
He says ist more often than New Labour drones say “Let us be clear…”
RHODE ISLAND
Does not look like networks calling it for Clinton were premature, as she is winning the major poulation centers of Providence & Warwick Counties handily.
And now they’ve got the second most inappropriate wind-up music at the end of his speech. After a speech like that, with a candidate like that you need some stirring classical music, not some Dixie stuff that works for GWB but not McCain.
Cincinatti now has their early vote up 58% O 41% HRC
BHO lead in texas down to 30k with 11% counted.
Clinton is about to overtake Obama in Texas - CNN is behind the SoS site. Had a nice little chunk at 3.0, laying now at 2.25
154. Well let’s be clear Archibald - I think you’re right, my friend!
148. Since 1900, only 5 out of 17 presidents who have sought a subsequent term have lost. Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter and Bush Snr…
Clinton now 1.5% ahead on SoS site.
Has anyone seen polls for the wyoming primary on saturday?
159 - Yeah but its rural vote coming in, hardly anything yet from the big counties. So cool yer jets!
But we still don’t know how Betfair will rule on Texas.
OHIO
Hamiliton County early voting
Obama = 58%
Clinton = 51%
164: doesn’t matter - the price is dropping, and that means we can sellsellsell for instant profit
The Betfair/intrade price are following CNN, so we have free money…..
167 - Now that’s a different matter entirely! Go fer it!
CNN says 9% Dem voters were GOP regged, and just like Ohio they went to the Obamacon corner.
If these Texas exits of her winning among White and Latinos are right she MUST have won Texas. There are not enough Black voters to overturn the Whites and Latinos surely?
170 - well she’s only 20k behind now after 15% counted.
Wolf Blitzer is a freaking moron ……
ZERO precinct votes reported yet for the following big counties:
OHIO
Cuyahoga (Cleveland)
Hamilton (Cincinnati)
Montgomery (Dayton)
Lucas (Toledo - Go Mud Hens!)
TEXAS
Harris (Houston)
Travis (Austin)
Jefferson (Beaumont)
Denton (north Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs)
El Paso
Dallas only 4%
Bexar only 3%
Sos site says Clinton +2% now, tending towards what the exits had. CNN is getting close to level, and when it reaches current SoS figures I guess you’ll see Clinton at 1.8 or so, maybe lower if people overreact to perceived momentum.
171 she is 22k ahead on the SOS in Texas website
175 - Strangely they’ve counted significantly fewer votes than CNN.
Why the difference?
I am defo feeling Hil momo in Tx.
170 - Perhaps there was problems with the exits, or more likely which exit doors they checked?
In Texas right now, Obama is leading big in Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin and their suburbs. Clinton is leading narrowly in San Antonio.
That’s about 2/3 of the state Democratic vote or thereabouts.
175 - Oh, I’m on CNN. What’s the link for your results page?
174. Andrew. I presume SoS is Secretary of State for Texas website? They have Clinton currently at 581,000 votes with Obama at 553,000 votes. CNN have Obama at 677,000 and Clinton at 661,000. So CNN appear to have counted more votes than SoS. Am I missing something?
Dunno, this same thing happened with Virginia GOP race, was like a crystal ball. However, regardless of tabulation differences, the CNN site has trailed SoS consistently the whole way through - you can see the CNN figures catching up all the time.
SoS now has Clinton +2.4%.
http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_136_state.htm
Texas rural vote is coming in faster than the urban/suburban vote.
There are 254 counties in Texas. And 150 of them give or take account for just 5% of the statewide Democratic vote.
176..exactly…SoS may show her ahead all the time but on a lesser percentage of votes counted than CNN !!??
Clinton campaign claiming that they have been screwed over by a judge in Cleveland, who extended voting in certain predominatly African american wards in Cleveland seemingly without due cause. Ohio Democratic party siding with Clinton.
181 - The SoS site is behind in votes counted, look at the figures.
However you slice Texas, still over 90% of precincts left to count.
186 - Hang on but when just over a million votes were counted on CNN BHO was in the lead. I don’t understand what is going on. Rick Perry pulling a fast one?
186: so it says, but yet the CNN site is trending exactly behind the SoS %s. Possibly SoS is done on % of precincts, CNN is % of votes counted?
Sorry, but too tired to do the county comparisons to find out, all that matters is it allowed me to get on at 3.0, and lay soonish at <2.0. You don’t even pay double betfair commission because it’s the same market.
Even money on Intrade now, I am average +28 per lot. Time to get out?
Texas - note that there are no fair number of rural counties that have reported 100% of precincts.
Wee bit of good news for Obama.
BTW, Clinton is carrying Jim Wells County. Famous for giving LBJ the Democratic nomination for US Senate in 1948 when “Landslide Lyndon” out-stole Coke Stevenson.
Has anyone declared whether they have made some money this evening?
Just interested, that’s all.
Malcolm
188 - Yeah that’s right, every apparent discrepency in the number must me fraud and skullduggery.
Want to buy some nice beachfront property at Point Barrow?
190: you’d imagine Obama will comeback at his strong counties start to add their votes, but you could perhaps wait till 60 - CNN is yet to reach the +2% or so peak (?) that SoS is at, and you have to imagine intrade will keep rising to that point.
Clinton 63% over BHO 35 % with Hispanics.
Just because the numbers look odd to you with less than 10% of precincts reporting does NOT mean a repeat of 1948 Texas!
OH is looking more interesting than TX. I think the Witch has it.
Bad reporting from ABC just now about late deciders saying they were expected for BHO and went for HRC. That’s just not the case.
Goodnight - may your candidate win and you win your bet.
Do we know how the betting suite is going for our PBC comrades?
This is building towards a big mess for Betfair. Clinton and Obama are neck and neck now with CNN for Texas. How will Betfair rule? Percentage vote? State delegates? With/without the Caucus votes?
HC is caning it on Intrade, you betfair boys need to keep up!
200. James S. Yes, they are very quiet aren’t they?
201: yeah, it’s going to be ugly.
clinton price on betfair has overreacted and gone to 1.5. 100% profit, thanks to the SoS crystal ball
Looks like Hilary finally overtakes Obama in Texas…according to CNN!
CNN finally has HRC in the lead (marginally) in Texas.
VERMONT
Obama carrying every county
RHODE ISLAND
Clinton now ahead in all 5 counties, lion’s share from Providence where she’s currently winning nearly 2/1 in this traditional bluecollar Democratic turf.
No Missouri in New England tonight!
I can’t see the numbers changing too much more in Ohio. Looks like the witch has won pretty comfortably.
205. Still too close to call, but I can’t understand why they haven’t called OH for Clinton…
Hillary looks to have won Rhode Island by 20 points
Exit polling way off again…
It could well be the 3/1 win for HRC that the Clintons and Republicans dreamed of…
209 - Cleveland isn’t THAT big! Time to call Ohio I agree
HC Tx lifetime hi of 66!
TEXAS
Think the current numbers actually look good for O