What else is Gilligan working on about this place?
March 5th, 2008
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Is the Jasper resignation the beginning or the end?
Anybody betting on the London Mayoral election should check out this interview with the Evening Standard’s Andrew Gilligan which appeared in the Independent a couple of days ago.
What I found striking from the piece was his step by step approach of never revealing all at one go. The Jasper revelations and resignation won’t be the last, story that he’ll try to do on Ken’s custodianship of the Mayoralty between now and the election on May 1st.
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Clearly his paper wants Livingstone out and you have to factor in whether or not there’ll be something very big in the days before polling.
A consequence of last night’s Jasper resignation is that it’s likely to bring other parts of the media into the act and for Gilligan’s investigations to be given greater credence.
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Yeah - a new thread… Thanks Mike! (Will revert back from watching Augustus’ paint)
On-Thread… Clearly the Standard are anti-Ken - but are they pro-Boris? If they feel they’ve taken Ken down a couple of notches recently, will they do a couple of unhelpful Boris stories so as not to complete alienate the proportion of there readership that are pro-Ken?
That’s a very beautiful picture Mike.
Oh yes, the election.. I wonder what ‘major stories’ will come out. Any suggestions people?
I think they plan to start the anti-Bozza stories on 2nd May, Lennon. They don’t see Boris Johnson as the man to run London and they don’t care. They do see him as a man who will sell papers - so they want him to win then pile in. I don’t think he will win on balance but he might.
My belief is that there will be more to come. It’s death by a thousand cuts.
And, congratulations to Andrew Gilligan for some excellent journalism.
unless of course Ken can find someone to shoot the messenger and harry the sources into an early grave (or worse).
5. He hasn’t been successful in doing so, so far.
Tressage 458 on the last thread - yes, maybe! Though the sort of snarling Coxall/harry stuff that we see here doesn’t really come up much in the Commons - people are too professional and realise we need to work together in practical ways. George Galloway has called me a murderer when we were canvassing on fdifferent sides in Leicester, but he’s also held the door open for me in the Commons. But perhaps some Tory MPs use the site therapeutically to express suppressed feelings, who knows?
For sure Gilligan is saving the best to last,no stories yet about Ken’s phantom transport advisor who doesn’t go to any TFL meetings.
Ah - what City Hall might have looked like if they hadnt penny-pinched on the cladding.
It’s probably worth remembering that the Standard wanted Ken out the last time too. It’s just that their line of attack is much more effective now because people care about low standards in high places in a way that they never did about what goes on at other people’s parties.
The Green Party is deciding shortly whether to endorse Ken for second preferences inthe mayoral election. I dont think it matter much either way but on balance I think they might be better off waiting a bit longer to decide.
Rasmussen tracker gives Clinton a lead of 5% over Obama nationally. Rasmussen have been fairly kind to her overall but that is a good result and may move further once the latest results are digested.
Public Policy Polling have a 4% Obama lead in North Carolina. That is significantly down on recent polls by other organisations but slightly up on the same organisation’s poll a month ago.
Yes, it’s death by a thousand cuts, but I’d really rather it was death by one cut, to be honest.
Livingstone is loathsome and corrupt, and deliberately polarizing London politics along racial and religious grounds. For the good of my fair city, Gilligan, please do your bloody worst.
City Hall should be renamed Gilligan’s Island because he owns Livingstone’s nasty butt.
Aww, Nick. I’m not snarling at you. You’re one of our pet Socialists. It’d be like kicking a puppy.
9 “The Green Party is deciding shortly whether to endorse Ken for second preferences”
It’s very topical at the moment to require your supporters to siton their hands…! So, recommend that none of your voters gives any second prefs. If it’s not the Greens, then sod the lot of yer. I’d have more respect for that position, to be frank.
The tide seems to be turning on the doorstep,
Canvassing this afternoon even Ken supporters are gobsmacked by his arrogance in insisting that he will reinstate Jasper.
It is not playing well on the doorstep
Good luck to Gilligan. I’d love to see Livingstone out.
Whether people will like the alternative is a different matter.
10. If this trend continues then I would find it a cause for concern.
However, I’m confident Obama will find a way of bouncing back from this.
He was in a far, far worse position post New Hampshire/Florida and managed a stunning revival in South Carolina.
He needs more credibility on the issues, but also needs to move the narrative back onto his ground.
He mustn’t let Hillary define the terms of the debate.
I would make the observation that the main journalists attacking Livingtone come from a left leaning background. Andrew Gilligan and Martin Bright.
They are not driven by political aims to get “their side” in, instead they have a need to right some wrongs.
Unless there are two people with the same name Martin Coxall used to be notorious as the rudest LibDem in existence - lucky old Tories.
Well except ColinW of course.
18. “I would make the observation that the main journalists attacking Livingtone come from a left leaning background. Andrew Gilligan and Martin Bright.”
Andrew Gilligan is certainly not from a left leaning background.
He would be shocked to hear you say that!
On thread I was planning to give BJ(!) my second pref but what the Greens say is true.. he is a waste of space as far as the environment is concerned. I’ll give it to the Greens instead.
Paddick has done a good job though - I am impressed. He is going to do better than people think.
I am not usually numbered amongst the prophets, but I was saying this on this site a few months ago. OK, the Standard has been after Livingstone since 1981, but this is different. It is clear that Gilligan has a lot up his sleeve, and the quality of the stuff he has written will encourage others to come forward.
Consider the timing: if you were a rabid anti-Kennite editor, and this was all you had, would you publish now, or closer to Polling Day in order to do more damage? I feel certain that there is more to come, and it is going to be really bad for London Labour.
Thanks for the comments about the picture - Jack and I painted it during the last euro-rant.
For Livingstone to say he would reinstate Grasper if he wins is beyond arrogant. He must be ignoring his campaign team advice. Has he been ‘tired and emotional’ lately or was he just ’soothing his throat’ a bit too much - hick?!
21 - He has admitted it himself in the Standard so he wouldn’t be shocked.
21 Oh no, Gilligan is definitely on the Left. In fact, he says as much in the Independent.
BTW, February’s MORI poll is Con. 39%, Lab. 37%, Lib Dem 16%.
21 Casino, In the Evening Standard last week Gilligan boasted of his left-leaning credentials, and wrote an article about how the better leftie journos were now all anti-Ken.
Surely the real relevance here is to the European Debate, where -
nah, only joking. I’ve just been out for some neighbourhood outreach; saving beautiful young women in hotpants from spending hours without relatively enormous sums of money. I am happy to say my team did some good work.
I have since polished off some nice lamb chops with a few glasses of Tanqueray, so all seems well with the world.
On-topic, reading the Guardian on Jaspergate, I wonder why Ken employed someone who can’t actually spell: “honey glaze”, when sending an erotic email. Tish tish.
Increasingly I feel the London Mayoral frontrunners give the voter the same sort of choice as you get in an Italian election… a bloody awful one between two dreadful candidates.
21 You are wrong on this Casino.
Gilligan has admitted to being a Labour party member (not just supporter) prior to Iraq.
26/27. Eh?!
I’ve heard that he has very strong Conservative sympatheties and is a signed up libertarian.
He writes prolifically for the Telegraph and Spectator too.
Never read one article of his I felt was “unsound”!
Confuzzzed…
31 Understandable, Casino Royale, you see most Labour Party members are incredibly right wing these days…….
26. How on earth have Labour crept up to 37% in Mori?!?!
A third of our population that stupid?
Crikey.
28 - When reading yesterdays Standard coverage of the latest Jasper revelations the phrase that kept coming to me was ‘tawdry sex missive’ I believe it was from the Rik Mayall vehicle The New Statesman. It seemed to sum up the contents for me!
I still think that Boris should go down a classicist route and pledge to clean the Augean stables of City Hall, presumably after slaying the Lernean Hydra!
23. Now your telling fibs..that picture is quite a few years old as the office in which I am currently sitting is slap bang in front of HMS Belfast yet is mysteriously absent from the picture
15
Nobody likes being ripped off;we get above inflation increases every year for our GLA charges, only to find that Livingstone’s cronies are giving our money away to mates with zero accountability.
Ok guys, hands-up, egg-on-face - I’ll admit I was wrong!
But I am *very* surprised.
I’d heard many stories that Gilligan was a righty. One of the very few in the BBC.
And he does write for the Telegraph and Spectator too…
Maybe he’s a trophy leftie like Rod Liddle.
Pretends he’s a leftie to look noble and get the girls, but actually is soundly right-wing and just can’t admit it
35 - Augustus said Painted… so could easily have just decided to use artistic license and remove your building… it’s ok, I’m sure it’s nothing personal
33 In January, they were on 38% with MORI, 1% ahead of the Conservatives. MORI has just come up with unusually high ratings for Labour, for two months in a row.
33.IIRC they haven’t, that is slight drop on last months Labour figure which placed them ahead of the Tories?
Another feature of the Standard’s coverage of the Mayoral election has been its kid-glove treatment of Brian Paddick. Somehow, I don’t see the paper endorsing the Lib Dems prior to the Editor skating across the sulphorous pits of Hades, but even them not kicking the party is unusual. Of course, as it gets closer to polling day that will all change, I’m sure, especially after the antics of the Parliamentary Party over the last few days, but they have not yet come out singing and dancing for Boris.
39/40. Ah, ok. I’m too lazy to check.
Still..
A third of our population that stupid?!?!
I’d have expected Labour to be regularly polling only 27/28% by now with all their screw-ups.
469. “Problem with that is that the argument becomes “You’re stuck with me now, it’s too late” which is not exactly compelling, especially if the reason for this arguably is due to caucuses and a media honeymoon period. He can’t limp over the finish line - he needs a different angle.”
Except he’s going to win the popular vote too.
The only way Clinton can win this is by doing better than expected in “her” states, Obama doing worse than expected in “his” states, convince the convention to seat Florida and Michigan without a rerun, and then convince a big majority of unpledged superdelegates that (a) she is the better candidate and (b) they should overturn the delegate lead.
41 - Yet another feature of their coverage is the extent to which they often include Sian Berry as the 4th of their “main candidates”. I’m sure it annoys all those parties who beat the Greens in the last Mayoral election but overall, on popular support in London and influence on GLA politics, I think it’s fair enough (though I would).
O/T but under the circumstances, no apology required methinks:
Ladbrokes odds of 4/1 for Hillary winning 3-1 tomorrow are an absolute steal - it’s even worth taking their 20/1 on her clean sweeping 4-0, but hurry, these odds won’t last!
by Peter from Putney March 3rd, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Ladbrokes have now paid out on the 4/1 bet on their “Correct Score” outcome of 3-1 as referred to above.
Bow before me, I say bow before me!
Two Lib-Dem front benchers resign;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7279805.stm
And more could follow?
Poor old Cleggy.
I suspect there are rather more traditional reasons why Ms Berry gets a regular mention.
47 - Whatever could you be talking about?! Could you illustrate your point with a photograph or something?
46 - Why poor old Cleggy? He bought it on himself!
On the Mori poll, I note that the LD ratings two months into Clegg’s term, are well below the ratings Ming got. Prior to Clegg = 14, with Clegg = 15, 16, 16.
Ming elected 2 March 2006
Ipsos-MORI/FT 2006-05-02 21
Ipsos-MORI/Sun 2006-04-22 25
Ipsos-MORI/n/a 2006-03-21 19
Ipsos-MORI/Sun 2006-02-20 20 (before)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/mori/
IPSOS Mori are almost alone in finding a major upturn in Labour fortunes this year.
Richard Younger-Ross - I never knew he was one of us. I’ll have to send him a donation.
47 Indeed.
44 Both the UKIP and BNP candidates for Mayor polled more votes than the Green candidate in 2004, and UKIP polled more assembly votes. The BNP have more councillors in London than the Greens, although the Greens definitely took fourth place, in terms of overall London vote share, in 2006.
49. Well yeah, he has brought it on himself, but I still feel some pity for him. What a mess he’s made of this.
34. Actually, Jasper’s naughty emails had a certain lyricism, I felt. There’s an interesting reference to the poem: how shall I love thee, let me count the ways. To wit:
“How many ways do I love thee? As the air I breathe and first gentle dew on a golden summer morn.
“As much as the Brazil national football team or aki and saltfish. I love thee feet, ankles, legs, thighs, bum and belly, arms, head and brain.”
There is also a gentle allusion here to the song Jamaican Farewell, immortalised by Harry Belafonte. “Aki, rice, saltfish are nice.”
So I am happy to cut Mister Lee some slack here. He sent a saucy email, big deal. At least it was mildly poetic.
Why did he resign? Ah, perhaps it was something to do with the massive corruption and cronyism surrounding Our Ken. Yes. That would be it.
And the pathetic defence of “racism” that followed Jasper’s departure didn’t help.
Memo to lefties: crying “racism” stopped working about three years ago.
48 - Here, Here, and Here should be some examples of what you’re looking for.
38. No offence taken I wish I could brush it our of my life sometimes as well!!
On the Mori Poll… It backs up the fact that Conservatives are consistently around 40% but all the big swings in the various polls seems to be more about Labour support (with ICM the only one giving Labdemers more than mid teens)…with Labour its everything from 30-38…37 feels way to high for labour based on all the other polls and the media narrative but I am biased.
53 - I have no pity for Calamity Clegg, I do have a huge amount of pity for hard-working Lib Dem activists in marginal seats who are seeing their efforts flamed by the leadership over no great principle. I would be incandescent if I were a Lib Dem.
Good luck for tonight Lib-Dems.
Break a Clegg!
53
Well Chris Huhne didn’t call him calamity Clegg for nothing.
Central probabilistic forecast (Mori)
Con 264
Lab 313
LD 38
Nats 14 (assumes SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
6-poll moving average
Con 295
Lab 277
LD 41
Nats 16
Oth 3
NI 13
The polls have appeared static for several weeks now, with my best guess of true support as
Con 39-40%
Lab 32-33%
LD 17-18%
probably enough to put the Tories ahead in a HP, but a long way from a majority…
46, poor Clegg? Not only a Calamity for his own party, but the country too. Treacherous, deceitful coward. I hope he falls in the Thames and gets skewered by an angry French mariner wielding a poiny baguette.
10 - I’ve looked at the PPP poll in North Carolina and they seriously under-represent Black voters, who are only 30% of the poll when it will be more like 45-50%. Once that is accounted for he is up 53-35.
42 - Why are people with different politicial views to you ’stupid’? There are plenty of people who continued to support the Conservatives 1995-1997, probably because they had specific political views that only that party represented.
43 - It is not inevitable he will win the popular vote if Florida and Michigan are rerun. She is 600,000 behind at the moment.
The states left are:
Pennsylvania - a similar result to Ohio gets her 300,000
North Carolina - a similar result to Alabama gives him 150,000 back
Kentucky and West Virginia - 10 point wins get her 150,000
Mississippi - Obama wins back 150,000 here
Wyoming, Montana and South Dakota - Obama wins back 80,000 here
Overall that leaves him up about 500,000. The other two states left are Oregon and Indiana which could very well be competitive (I know that you contest this but if Clinton has a good run it is possible). A realistic interpretation leaves Clinton 450,000 behind. She won Florida and Michigan by 450,000. If she does well she could exceed this, a bigger win in PA is possible.
It is clear the PV math is very dificult for her, but given the minor stumble for Obama for the last few days it is at least possible that the polls will move towards Clinton. It is unlikely she will win the PV but it is certainly possible.
Well it’s after 5pm - I assume the Tory interns will be going home in the next 15 monutes or so maybe we can restart the debate in the sort of reasoned terms we had overnight (and most nights).
52 - RESPECT also beat the Greens in the Mayoral race (though the Green Party beat UKIP and all the other minor parties in the Assembly election). The BNP only have more councillors in London due to the voting system (though I’d still rather have a few councillors on 6 authorities than have a lot of councillors on only 1 authority). The Standard is perfectly within its rights to use whatever basis it wants to highlight different candidates though - in this election I’m not sure going on looks is any worse than going on past electoral performance.
55 - I knew someone would be along quite shortly to help out with my request ;-).
51 Jon, just to point out that giving second preferences to anyone either that the first two in Mayoral election is same as sitting on your hands or abstaining. Only the top 2 go through to second round. So Greens are sensibly deciding that of most likely two, Boris or Ken, which they would prefer.
63. Not as long as you’re here we won’t be able to.
63. Are you a WUM..you are certainly an idi$t. Typicla self-righteous tosh from a LabDem nobody..
Surely Clegg will now resign, having lost the support of at least a quarter of his MPs he can hardly continue, and Cable will take over without further fuss.
68, I disagree. Your view seems to suggest you think Clegg has a functioning brain. If he had he could have avoided this needless disaster with ease. He’ll cling on, unless the Huhnie monster or Killer Cable do the humane thing and put Calamity to sleep.
65 Being a LibDem I am of course aware of the ramifications of various electoral systems…
Can anyone clarify the story that some Libdem’s in the shadow cabinet will be resigning as well as voting for a referendum tonight, whilst others will ignore the whip and remain?
64 UKIP outpolled them in the constituency contests, although the Greens just edged ahead on the list. However, UKIP have no chance of matching that vote in May.
I cannot remember - did Younger-Ross or Farron support Clegg in the Leadership Election?
63
Dan,your mum says its time for your tea,she’s done naughty nuggets for you tonight.
Have any Libdems said what they think the consequences of a referendum on and rejection of, the Treaty would be?
Mike.Is there something odd about Ipsos “Other” figures? Surely an 8% figure must be too low? From the evidence of the other polls ,the difference always seems to come out of the Con figure.
68
I hope not,Cable would be a seriously good leader,whereas Calamity is turning out to be worse than Ming.
I just had a really depressing thought - the pb.com comments are archived & I just had a vision of some poor sod 20years hence trawling through the last thread…
We have a small boy here called Dan? Does anyone know him? He says he’s a “Lib Dem” and he’s looking for his nan? Hello?
Does anyone know him? His name is Dan and he’s four foot three, he’s a lovely little lad, with a reading age of about six. He’s wearing short trousers and he’s got a big satchel with an EU flag on it.
If anyone wants to claim him, he’ll be at comment 63.
73. I’m pretty sure Farron backed Clegg.
Farron was Campbell’s PPS I think, so I find it odd that he wasn’t privy to the formulation of the “In or out” policy in the first place.
Farron is I think on the Steve Webb - Simon Hughes “left” of the Lib Dems, but Westmorland and Lonsdale is as conservative a constituency as any in the south-west.
I’m amazed that the LDs are the story today. WTF?
78 Lennon, I am sure that PhD theses have been written on more boring subjects, but surely none more depressing and soul-destroying than the last thread.
63 “Well it’s after 5pm - I assume the Tory interns will be going home in the next 15 monutes or so…>”
Nah - Ashcroft is paying for a night shift too!
82. Presumably the title would be either
“Nick Clegg’s hundred days as Lib Dem leader: Perspectives from the Netroots”
or
“Tory delusions: Conservative Euroscepticism during the First Brown Government”
Its amazing, before I started lurking on this site I has a healthy respect for the LibDems and contempt for Nulabourites…4 months later the roles are almost entirely reversed. I do not agree with labourites and I loathe (though sort of respect) Brown. They often spin bad news (which side doesnt though) but led by Nick P, they are generally reasonable, articulate and broadly able to see other perspectives (OK I am excluding gabble and Woger generally and Tyson when he is in anti-Tory bile mode) but its the LabDem anoraks including 63 and other humourless, blinkered, self-regarding popinjays who really irritate.
81. They certainly have carved out a niche for themselves on this Europe debate. Clegg knew he had to be disctinctive from the other parties but this week has been v funny, from the “spontaneous” walkout, the newsnight interview roasting, to boldly abstaining tonight whilst some colleagues rebel and keep their posts whilst other rebel and resign. hopefully its all part of some grand strategy
86 - “hopefully its all part of some grand strategy” - preparing the ground for a merger with the Monster Raving Loony Party?
79 - Does anyone know him? His name is Dan and he’s four foot three, he’s a lovely little lad, with a reading age of about six.
Should be more than enough to understand your new novel then!
62. Obama won whites in California, and did increasingly better in the North of the state - and that was when he was still getting his name out on ST. Washington and Idaho went overwhelmingly for Obama.
Plus, you think she can win Michigan by 25 points and Florida by 16 points if there was actually a campaign there? She only won New York by 18!
There is much glee from various posters on the difficulties the Lib Dems find thenselves in today.But if we turn away from the short term political point scoringin parliament the longer term is different.
The Tories will have failed to get a referendum which might have stopped the treaty.
The treaty itself will probably get through and even if it doesn’t the Eurosceptics in the Tory party will still be fuming.One party the Lib Dems willbe pledged to the referendun the Eurosceptics want want-should we be in or out of Europe.
There will be great pressure on Chamelion to pledge the same.He has a good excus eto do so-ie Labour denied the Torie ana dteh people a ferefernedum on the Lisbobtrewaty so thsiis a chanc eto get one.My bet- within a year if not sooner the Tories will be calling for a referndum of whether we should be in or out of Europe.
rogerh
78.&82.Yes, Europe is so last decade and such a boring topic on day when there is a major treaty being debated in the HoC and in the media. We have the boring spectacle of MP’s from all parties defying a whipped party line in a vote in the HoC. Add in a few shadow cabinet resignations, just an ordinary day at the office.
As for the political betting side of things, well it won’t shift a poll or the odds on any party, so no money to be made there then!
90 - Indeed - the Lib Dem position will be proved to be more sustainable than the Cameron position once the Lisbon Treaty is law.
The reason the right-wing press hate Ken is the same reason Blair and Brown hated him. He has proved that you can be a socialist and still be electable and successful.
Most of the outrage against him is pantomime. I mean journalists pretending shock at politicians having a drink, is like the Tories pretending shock over undeclared donations. The Standard never liked Ken and have been waiting to pounce ever since he was elected. The Finegold situation was just their first opportunity.
As for Mike’s point I’m sure there will be a story the day before the election and just like all the other stories Gilligan will have been sitting on it for months if not years. I used to enjoy reading the Standard, but the way they have turned genuine investigative journalism into strategic political campaigning has put me off buying it ever again.
90. I don’t think there is a particular clamour for an in/out referendum. so on that point i think you are wrong. The treaty will get through and for the next few years Tory PPCs will accuse Lib/Lab reneging of promises. Conversely, Lab/Lib will call Tories blinkered swivel eyed Euro-loons not bothered about the real ishooos, like education, health etc. and we shall all carry on as usual snarling at eachother and straining at our leashes feeling very self righteous too
91, Please don’t misunderstand me, ChrisD. The subject matter is without a doubt fascinating, and very important - it’s just that the quality of debate on the last thread was pathetic.
90. I don’t normally pick people upon spelling and syntax - this is just a blog. But anyone who can post:
“There will be great pressure on Chamelion to pledge the same.He has a good excus eto do so-ie Labour denied the Torie ana dteh people a ferefernedum on the Lisbobtrewaty so thsiis a chanc eto get one”
Is surely either a stupid autistic lefty europhile, or an orthographic advisor to Lee Jasper.
Whatever the case, they need help.
RogerH - there is a difference between sceptical about the direction and changes being proposed and a member of Better Off Out. Most Conservatives do not want to leave the EU but rather than me listen to a Lib Dem MP explain the Conservative position
Mr Younger-Ross puts it very well “”My concern is and always has been the lack of democratic accountability and centralising nature of the EU. I will therefore support the reform treaty referendum amendment as the only way to get these issues debated.”
What is interesting from a Pb.com perspective is how the Liberal Democrat polling will respond to Clegg’s masochism strategy (as Times Red Box puts it). Will it boost LDs due to exposure? will it have no effect? will it make them look a divided party under weak leadership? IMHO the press response points to the latter.
93 - The Standard’s campaigning against corruption in the GLA has been some of the best journalism around in the past year - that it is at the expense of Ken shouldnt really detract from it. Would you prefer that Jasper was still in post (as he doubtless would be otherwise)?!
93 So, do you think there’s nothing wrong with the way that Lee Jasper has behaved in office?
96 - or tired and emotional……
93
Quite right, pesky newspapers. They should concentrate on ‘rear of the year’ and more ‘win a toaster’ comps.
100. No excuse.
I’ve had four double Tanquerays and tonic, and five bottles of Heinken, and I’ve spent the last three hours in the intoxicating atmosphere of soi 4, Sukhumvit Road -yet I still don’t spell the word referendum “ferefernedum”.
I mean, there are limits.
And on that oddly selfrighteous note, I’m gonna watch the Tudors. Episode 6.
Ciaobella.
98 “The Standard’s campaigning against corruption in the GLA has been some of the best journalism around in the past year.”
I agree wholeheartedly.
98. As I said, it’s the timing and their billing which has bothered me. Defamation Law states that you can’t put headlines on billboards which mislead passers by into believing something that is not contained within the story. Inference and innuendo are included. Anyone who has walked past the billboards in London would think that Livingstone was filling his pockets with Londoners money.
The fact that the Standard is the only paid for London Daily means that it has a responsibility to be measured but the headlines leading up to the election have either been attacks on Livingstone or PR for Boris.
I thought that Cameron was smart at PMQs today to put Gordon on the spot about Ken.
Brown must be furious because he fought long and hard to stop Tony in 2003/4 from bringing the expelled Livingstone back into the party and getting the then official Labour candidate to step down.
re 93. I think that where Ken and his defenders fall down is that they don’t even bother to answer serious allegations - rather they just smear the accuser.
102 - You mean Heineken. But we’ll let you off for your exemplary pluralisation of Tanqueray and tonic……..
“As I said, it’s the timing and their billing which has bothered me.”
But not the truth of what they’ve alleged, though.
89 - He did well is Washington and Idaho, but they were caucuses, not primaries. Texas has shown that this benefits Obama. If Oregon voted today I am sure Obama would win. But they don’t - they vote in May. My point is that Clinton is seeing an upsurge at the moment in polls. Who knows if it will be maintained? But if it is it gives her a chance in states where Obama was previously favoured. Clinton winning Oregon is unlikely, Obama is the clear favourite, but it is not impossible.
She doesn’t need to win Michigan by 25 and Florida by 16 to get a PV advantage that is the same as the previous results because turnout would be much higher. If the re-runs happen they will be the last contests in the race and have everything hanging on them. I guess they would have higher turnouts than for meaningless beauty contests with no campaigning. She won the PV in Ohio by 230,000 and 10 percentage points. If she matched that in Michigan, which is slightly smaller, she could easily pick up 150,000 plus.
I don’t think this will happen, but it could.
95.Augustus, I think the problem is compounded by the behaviour of our political classes on the issue. We are being exercised by the political motivations/contortions of all three parties rather than the real issue of the contents of the treaty.
Can anyone answer my question at 75?
Well that last thread was interesting! I’ve been accused of being prejudiced against Geordies and the Welsh before but is there something about people with the Christian name ‘Martin’?
A couple of observations (apart from the obvious that JH, Martin Coxall and Simon are rude enough to be Parisians) Didn’t William Hague remind anyone of the sad character in 2001 who stood outside his caravan counting the days to save the pound?……and
……at last the fightback’s begun! Only two points in it from my favourite poster MORI
104
So what do you want? You in charge of what they print or should we just burn all the copies and smash the presses.
And as for your comment on defamation, DMGT are better versed in that than you I fancy.
Clegg has played a bad hand very badly over this EU vote.
96. He may not be able to spell but at least he’s not a tragic & sleazy sex tourist. How are the very young girls tonight?
107. That’s precisely the point. There has been no investigation by the police. I don’t know what Jasper has or hasn’t done and neither do you. If he is as is suggested a ’shake-down’ artist then I hope he is prosecuted. But seeing as the Standard have not given any evidence to the police it is unlikely that we will know until after London goes to the polls.
113 - I disagree, he’s played a perfectly good hand very badly, and the Conservatives are justifiedly narked with him for scuppering any chance of giving the Government a well-deserved kicking over this.
108. But that would all depend on Clinton making inroads into Obama’s coalition, which she hasn’t shown any sign of being able to do. Clearly African Americans are a lost cause for her, and she’s not going to win over the upper class liberals either. Young people are never going to back her, neither is the anti-Iraq vote. I just don’t see it on any reasonable level.
I am pleased to report Ladbrokes have just paid me out at 4/1 for predicting Hillary’s 3-1 victory yesterday. So they appear to have now decided that the Texas result should be based on votes won and not delegates awarded. Hooray!
114 - Which particular article or claim did you have a problem with? Or do you generally think we shouldnt criticise politicians / officials until they have been convicted of something?!
111 - the Conservatives had a one point deficit last month.
The Standard has never made any allegation of criminal activity against Lee Jasper. The allegations centre on misconduct and incompetence in the performance of his duties. He has now resigned from his job, and you can draw your own conclusions from that.
108. And even allowing for the caucus factor of 20 points in his favour: He won Idaho by 62 points and Washington by 36 points. She’s not going to do particularly well in Oregon. I’ve made the case for Indiana before.
110 I can but it won’t be the leadership answer!
111. If you live by the sword Roger etc..also you are a month late..the Mori poll is actually the beginning of the end..the Labour ‘lead’ has fallen by 3 points.
Me too, Goupillon, as per my post 45 above.
114 I think the Evening Standard dropped some big clues in the police’s direction but Sir Ian Blair’s boys concentration was on trying to get Boris for his theft of that priceless and historically important artifact.
Though perhaps as it took them 5 years from time the story was published to summoning up the courage to face Boris with his crime, it might be 2013 when some PC gets round to looking at possible misuse of taxpayer funding.
45. PfP or Shadsy - Have the total Texas delagate numbers including the caucus results been finalised yet on CNN as it looks like they are still counting the caucus numbers here
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
and this WSJ report shows that Obama has pulled back the 4 delegate (65-61) gap from the primaries by 3 (30-27) in the caucuses, with 10 still to be counted later today?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120472843939713695.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Newspaper sales are falling everywhere but in London the Evening Standard and its free version are read by millions. They have a powerful monopoly over political opinion in London.
If they had used that monopoly to rake over 10 year-old allegations about Boris Johnson then I would expect Conservative supporters to feel the same way about it as Ken supporters do. All I am saying is that there is a line where journalism ends and campaigning begins.
Most national newspapers campaign for politicians and against them of course. But the difference is that they have competitors which show the other side. The Evening Standard does not.
127 - Again - can you specify which particular allegation / article in the Standard stepped over the mark?
Do you think Jasper should still be in his job? If not, what are you complaining about?
127 The Evening Standard is read by 15-20% of London’s voters. It’s influential, but has no monopoly.
I’ve not seen much of him before, but I think Jim Murphy has done a pretty good job of piloting the Treaty through the Commons. Any chance of a promotion on the cards?
127
Every quarter or so I get Livingstone’s junk mail ‘news’paper shoved through my door full of tractor production garbage. Who pays for that?
http://www.london.gov.uk/londoner/index.jsp
131. “According to the Mayor’s Annual Report 2005/06 the budget for The Londoner is £2,882,000, of which £632,000 comes directly from the GLA precept portion of council tax paid by London householders. Most of the remaining £2,250,000 comes from advertising and editorial material paid for by Transport for London and the Metropolitan Police Authority.”
Clegg’s big mistake? Instead of doing something that his party believes in he went for something to try and show up other parties instead.
Moral - say what you believe, the whole point of voting lib dem is that the party doesn’t shift its views for expediency’s sake, you get what you vote for. If that goes then what’s the point?
BTW Texas looks close, Obama may well win this overall when the caucus results are all in, It could still be 2/2.
Kramer is sitting on the Lib Dem front bench, so I assume she hasn’t resigned.
128. It is not specific articles but the sheer number, the timing/spreading-out of their release and the misleading billboards.
15-20% is just sales of the paid for edition. If you factor in the million(ish) copies of the free version distributed plus the amount that are read second-hand (i.e picked off of train seats) then it does have a huge impact.
135 - “It is not specific articles but the sheer number, the timing/spreading-out of their release and the misleading billboards.”
It’s hardly the Standard’s fault that there have been a lot of dodgy-looking arrangements to report on. Do you think they should have kept schtum on the latest revelations because they’ve written too much about Jasper already? Your problem is that the logical conclusion of your argument is that Jasper should still be in his job. Anyone who has been following the story is likely to fundamentally disagree with that.
135. The frequent headlines on billboards as you walk home also have an effect.
135 But their allegations would appear to be correct, as the resignations of both Lee Jasper and his deputy indicate. Their motivation in making these allegations is beside the point.
130. I should imagine it’s very likely, assuming there’s a reshuffle before the next GE.
132
Given a sensible attitude to spending then,there’s £2,250,000 for Transport for London and the Metropolitan Police Authority to spend on what it should be spent onL: transport and the police.
Frankly, I’d fire the department heads for clearly wasting money. Why do the police have to advertise?
Rosemary Imodium was, the self-confessed liar, and enjoyer of African luxury holidays, was outed by that well known right wing organ the, er, BBC.
Is the argument that the Evening Standard can only attempt exposes of dodgy practices within the Government of London because they have no rivals?
So until somebody sets up a rival newspaper they have to self censor themselves?
142 *cannot attempt…
It’s the nature of politics that the Governing politicians and parties bear the brunt of investigative (and sometimes unfair) press reporting, and the opposition get off lightly.
I don’t recall anyone offering ‘balance’ in the second half of the 92-97 Parliament.
The entire lib dem position has been very confusing as it constantly tries to change the debate, rather than say yes or no on the treaty. A debate over in or out of europe would be nice, but they wouldnt be able to force it, and now they’ve tried to do so have looked daft(the walkout was especially bad). It would have been much better to either support a referendum on the treaty, or oppose it.
It’s the price we pay for democracy. The price for being able to kick our leaders out, is that sometimes we will kick them out against our collective better interests.
Back on topic.
I will enquire of Corals how much they will lay me at evens on Boris to be victorious on May 2008.
Evens seems too good to be true
104
Cut the sanctimonious crap,you don’t like it because it looks like lefties have been caught with their fingers in the till.
116, 121 - You’re right that Obama is favoured in Oregon, and that Clinton hasn’t made inroads into his coalition. But she has now got 2 months in which Obama is going to come under a lot more scrutiny, and his message of hope and change may start to sound stale. Black voters are the core of his coalition and they make NC and MS safe for him. Upper class liberals on the other hand have the potential to move, which is why she has a chance, although a small one, in Oregon. Demographics are important, but they are not inevitable. If held today Obama would probably win by 10 points, but a lot can change in 2 months. In particular the big Clinton wins among those who decided late must give her hope.
However a number of things counting against her:
1. Independents - with the GOP race over they can cross over more
2. Money - will she be able to keep up over the long-haul.
I give her a 15-20% chance at the moment.
Referendum amendment defeated, 311-248.
That’s quite a sizable Labour/Lib Dem rebellion.
150. how big?
It’s bad luck for Ken that no journalist with the backing of their newspaper loathes Boris as much as Gilligan and the Standard loathes Ken.
Even just a reminder of his history informing those Londoners who know nothing about the Guppy affair what it was all about or better still an investigation into his associates as they are doing with Ken…..but it’s not going to happen.
130 Jim Murphy is proof that there is at least one competent member of the government - I think he may be playing at the top of his ability range though so it will be a shame when he gets Darlinged - promoted to a position for which he is singularly ill suited.
Tanqueray - they produce a range of products so presumably seant was sampling a range of beverages and the plural was justified
Thats the Tory amendment. Has the Labour rebel amendment on a dual question been voted on yet?
150 that about 20 more ‘rebels’ than the Speccie predicted
133 This article claims Rush Limbaugh won it for Hillary. I don’t think it was Rush (though he could have played a part) but the Red Phone and Hillary’s harder edge on security issues.
http://reason.com/blog/show/125327.html
In Wisconsin the self declared Republicans voting in the Democrat Primary (9%) broke 72%-28% for Obama, self declared “conservatives” (a wider field making up 14%) broke 59% to 40% for Obama.
In Ohio the self declared Republicans voting in the Democrat Primary (9%) broke 49:49 - evens , conservatives again 14% broke 48:48. Compared to Wisconsin using conservative share changes Obama lost 1.5% of his overall share and Hilary gained equivalent. Not enough to change result.
In Texas though Obama won the Republicans but only by 52:47. Conservatives made up 22% of Democrat voters and they split 53:43 in Hillary’s favour. So Obama got 9.5% of his vote from conservatives whereas had he kept his Wisconsin share it would have been 13% - up 4.5%. Hillary would have been down 4.5%.
Stated that 13 LD MPs did vote for the referendum. 3 of them in Clegg’s cabinet who have had to resign from it.
Clegg saying on BBC News that he “will have discussions with them”.
151. Clegg said 13 LD MPs voted for a referendum (at least I assume so, I suppose a couple have them could have voted against). I assume nats and unionsts also went the same ways, so that’s what 15?
154. division is happening now.
It’s disgusting that it has been defeated
Roger,
Murphy is sure to get rewarded. Liars and crooks always do in the Labour party.
149 - It’s the Clintons who have escaped the scrutiny more than Obama (as there’s more to scrutinise). The tax returns are going to become a real factor for a start and, if Obama won’t go negative (and at last there’s a politician who thankfully won’t align themselves with that sort of disgusting slime) then there are plenty who are now going to do that for him. Clinton made that inevitable by her disgusting behaviour over the last two weeks.
Still, if she wins Texas it’s because of support from the vicious right, she must be so proud…..
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/03/proof-of-the-li.html
I could understand Clegg’s stance. Once. I had no idea that it had so little support within his esteemed colleagues. Silly.
Sorry O/T
Sky News is reporting that Nick Clegg’s response to the rebels is ‘divided’.
The front benchers will be sacked, but not those in more junior positions.
Does he fudge everything?
164. odd response, sack some and keep the rest. although 13 is a lot for a party as small as the lib dems.
164 He doesn’t have a huge pool of talent to pick from, can’t afford to fire too many.
Surely Cleggs authority will never truely recover from this?
153 - You misunderstand me, the plural is definitely correct. In fact, anything else (e.g. Tanqueray and tonics) would be wrong. One has a [measure of] gin and some tonic, so when pluralising, it is the gin that is pluralised (as it is a countable noun in this context), whereas the tonic is not (since it is a mass noun in this context)
Anyway, after all that I think I’ll go and make myself one…!
Second result virtually the same at 311-247.
Carmichael, Farron and Heath have now resigned.
167. I’m just wondering what he’ll do next.