Did Hillary ad darken Obama’s skin?
March 6th, 2008
A new storm is brewing tonight in the fight for the Democratic nomination - a suggestion that in one of her Ohio and Texas TV ads that the Hillary campaign darkened Obama’s skin.
The above is from the American Blog although the story first started on the Daily Kos.
This one is bound to run.
Mike Smithson
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Now that is stooping low! But nothing surprises me - it is Hillary Clinton after all. The sooner she is out of this race the better.
Oh, I heard about this somewhere else.
http://www.4degreez.com/images/2008/obama_fox.jpg
I think that’s a fair point. Others have pointed at this:
http://www.4degreez.com/images/2008/goodnight2.jpg
seeing the word ‘NIG’, but I reckon that’s clutching at straws.
Insane suggestion. . If it had happened there would be one very angry ‘colourist’ out there forced to do something like this and he/she would have spilled the beans. Grading is not a precise science and the client can have the colour they want-but it would be known by the video facility. I don’t believe a word of it.
If so, it was a remarkably silly thing to do. Any messing around is bound to start a dirty tricks row, and in any case Americans already know Obama is Black.
Once this election is over, it might be worth examining whether the political consultants really know anything about politics. They’ve not done much for Clinton and Giuliani really must sue for his money back.
Wasn’t there also the suggestion that the nose had been widened ??
5, I thought that suggestion was for the entire face.
4 - Mark Penn has been an absolute liability for Clinton. I have no idea why she hired him. She has paid $4m for his services yet he has not given up his private sector job often helping union-busting companies. He ran Liebermann’s campaign in 2004 and is stuck in the 1990s. And to cap it all a couple of days before TX and OH he says he is just an advisor. What loyalty!
He has taken the ‘microtrends’ idea to absurd extremes. It can help on the margins when putting out targetted literature but is not what a campaign should be based on. He was wrong to focus on inevitability and experience early on - strategic mistakes that will likely cost her the nomination. Apparently people in the campaign are calling him Mark Shrum …
re book title - i think Genesis secret is a bit weak - if you google it you get a health supplement company or the facebook entry for a religious group -
Of my previous entries I rather liked
The Tantalus Descent or some other variation such Secret / Vault / deception etc
Tantalus has the following going for it
Recognisable name but a bit mysterious - can you remember who he was
Classical link - not Biblical - better for some
Indicates it might be an interesting read - combined with Descent - could involve some morally dubious activity - but if blood lines are important it has a double meaning - Good link to secrets etc as well see below and full Wikepedia link
Tantalus is known for having been welcomed to Zeus’ table in Olympus, like Ixion. There he too misbehaved, stole ambrosia, brought it back to his people,[6] and revealed the secrets of the gods.[7]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tantalus
It
and so the narrative changes again
IF this story gets mainstream purchase then I would say it was jolly bad for Hillary. Unfortunately for her, as she has gone relentlessly negative in recent days, and as her husband started the whole race-baiting thing in South Carolina, it doesn’t seem entirely implausible (even if not true).
At the very least its gotta be worth a few more points for Obama in 1. very black states, and 2. very rich white guilty liberal states.
[NB Thanks, again, for all title ideas; they are all being noted, I assure you…]
This is just silliness. They’ll be telling us a “black and white” photo of Obama is “racist” next…
Here’s some I prepared earlier…
http://www.fearthebeard.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/barack-obama-bw.png
http://www.getreligion.org/wp-content/photos/barack_obama_06.jpg
I’m pretty sure Obama’s campaign has done this himself on occasion. There was one picture with Oprah in an African-American magazine where he looked very black indeed.
On SeanT’s book. I think “Genesis Secret” is weak. Genesis suggests creation, when the book seems to be about the fall. “Secret” seems horribly cliched. “Jericho Vault” has less of a ring to it, and more of a thud. I still like “The Mark of Canaan”.
Re posted from the last thread…after such extensive research,I thought my efforts should not go to wase…
Judging by SeanT’s previous work [How to get yourself laid] above, this one may not be aimed at the teenage/’young person’s’ market. If it is…based on a representative sample of two…
The Jericho Vault
1. Sounds like a book about someone breaking into a bank in Israel.
2. ???? Sounds abit biblical. What’s for tea?
The Genesis Secret
1. Something to do with the first book in the Bible and something we don’t yet know.
2. Sounds abit Da vinci. Seriously what’s for tea?
In both cases, they chose the later.
Also ‘Jericho’ is a failed US SciFi Us TV series.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jericho_(TV_series)
11, 12. Yes, it is silly - but you wouldn’t quite put it past Clinton’s campaign, would you? They had to sack a volunteer for sending that email claiming Obama was basically Islamist.
That’s why the story is potentially damaging for Hillary. Not because it is intrinsically true, but because it reinforces the image that she “might” be willing to do “anything” to win. How many of us think she absolutely wouldn’t do this, if cornered?
Hm.
12. Genesis Secret is weak. Genesis has been overused. I quite like Eden Secret though. Mark of Canaan is clever (I like it) but it will be dismissed, I fear, as too obscure and offputting.
Ho-hum. The massmarket!
Perhaps we should wait for the response - maybe a squashed, oompa-lumpah like Hillary, with the colour of her face desaturated to a(KKK-like) bed-sheet white….
On Topic.
If they have done this they are mad. I just can’tsee them being so stupid.
Unfortunately it does play with the South Carolina narrative.
O/T, but I enjoyed these comments from the last thread
“30.
“This is what compassionate Conservatism is all about - caring for the sick, the depr(i)aved, the hopeless people in our society.”
Surely the Conservative parlimentary party has friends and family to do all that?”
Not exactly. We do have an expression called “Care in the Conservative Party” which means enabling the more, shall we say, eccentric, members, a platform to sound off harmlessly. I’m sure there’s also “Care in the Labour Party” and “Care in the Liberal Democrats.”
13 There was also a novel called The Jericho Sanction written by Lt Col Oliver North of Iran-Contra fame.
11. It’s not silliness (in betting terms) if people believe the allegation. Or, less plausibly, that they don’t believe the allegation and feel Obama / his team is playing the victim card. Neither need be true for it to count politically.
13. Hah! Thanks.
Yes I noted the Jericho series. My publishers were unconcerned by it. I am though.
The Eden Secret is looking like the best bet at the mo.
What is for tea, anyway?
Back on the title… A Tantalus is what you give a judge when he retires, that and a big fat pension.
14. SeanT, may I ask, why are using a pseudonym for your novel?
OK I’m off to to fight the Japanese sleep monster Bedzillah.
Sayonara.
‘Eden’ is sexier. All that forbidden stuff in the garden. More feminine though.
20. The Eden Project?
C’mon! Why all the biblical references?
Think of summit original!!
22. There are only so much of your own sexual experiences you want the public to be able to trace back to you.
22. Aaargh! I wanna go sleep.
Last post: because my agent doesn’t want to compromise the “Sean Thomas” brand.
(don’t laugh at the back)
Apparently if you publish titles in too many genres booksellers’ heads explode and readers start having aneurysms. Given that I already publish cutting-edge (i.e. obscure) literary fiction and salaciously candid memoirs, all under the name Sean Thomas, it will dilute things too much if I also pen airport novels under the same name.
So we are trying to create a new brand: TOM KNOX. Get the latest TOM KNOX thriller, etc etc..
And with that I definitely go bed.
14. It’s only potentially damaging because the world is full of lame-brains who parrot out meaningless neologisms like “racist”, “anti-semite”, “Holocaust-denier”, etc, etc, as if they’d frigging invented the pernicious terms…
25. Er. Coz the book is all about Eden and the Bible?
N’night!
Hillary’ous dicussion with obama
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7150u9sfCo
Enjoy,
29 — you have the advantage of us there in that you have actually read it.
26. Sex sells!!
27. Fair point. Well put.
Then I shall ask another question (maybe to be answered when you wake up
) - why “TOM KNOX”?
29. I thought it was some fictional primeval interbreeding of an evil race with humans, didn’t know there was anything biblical about it?!
Sleep well.
OT
Just heard J Smith being interviewed on ID cards. Database will not be online she says.
So anyone can fake an ID card to their biometrics and use that.. as a fake .. and not be checked against the ID database is what she is saying.
So why bother spending £14Billion?
Cannot believe it. She is either totally incompetent or totally thick or both..
How to waste 100% of our money.
33. does she know what she is talking about? I heard her say the database is not online so it is impossible for it to be hacked into, which i think anyone who knows even a tiny bit about computers knows is complete rubbish.
Haven’t you got anything better to run with than this drivel from a blog? How about something, anything, about Nafta-gate or Rezko or Norman Hsu or the superdelegates or Pennsylvania or John Edwards or…. oh I remember, you all need Obama to win. How could I be so stupid.
12 - I’d prefer the Mark of Senior
It’s pretty stupid.
Just looking at that picture you can see the whole image has been darkened, things like that happen when you record and edit video material.
What next? Will people be going over OBAMA’s ads frame-by-frame to check whether he hasn’t lightened the picture 1%?
I think OBAMA’s the one using dirty tricks here, he’s looking for liberal reverse racism (”oh, the poor boy!”), attracting attention back to himself to divert from and dampen Clinton’s recent momentum.
35 - “oh I remember, you all need Obama to win. How could I be so stupid”
Yes, and our cunning plan is to discuss it on a UK site dedicated to political betting. I mean if that doesnt do for HRC what will?
35, “How could I be so stupid.”
The thought had crossed my mind
34. No and she is hoping noone else does.
As if these ’security checked’ people can’t be infilrated.
Criminal gangs already advertise on the net for people with specialist skills or access.
‘If you have a skill, come and join us and share in the proceeds of growth etc..’
They target bank, govt employees, computer hackers, card fraudsters etc…
Set up a nice little co-operative.
The Govt will only ever be one day away from being behind…at best!
The Democrat contenders all head in the direction of the last Lib Dem leader with that plaintive question on their lips :
http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/03/06/news/wyoming/18-obama.txt
Could be an NTSC artefact. The american video standard is known in the trade as “Never Twice the Same Color”
Hillary, what have you done?
If you’ve gone and done a race smear, you’ll be eaten alive. Silly, silly girl.
3. Roger ‘I don’t believe a word of it.’
But of course had Obama been your favoured candidate and Hilary some ‘right winger’, you would of course believe it completely.
“The Mark of Hanaan”
The tragic story of one man’s struggle to get thrown out of the European People’s Party for being a tit.
3. Roger, you never responded to my post about Britain’s influence in the world.
re 4 he’s as much white as black
44. I like Obama and dislike Clinton, but I don’t believe it.
I also think people who engage in unprovoked ad hominem attacks should be placed in the sin-bin…
re 33 I pointed this out 2 threads back. The woman is plainly stupid and does not understand how it works. It matters not if it is on a secure government network - it is still online and will be a hacker’s paradise.
37. I find it incredible the way some people always think a criticism of one side must come from another. All this seems to be is some Obama fans in the blogosphere having a go at Clinton. There’s absolutely no evidence that it comes from the campaign itself. The same thing happened in South Carolina when independent figures had a go at Clinton for disrespecting MLK - it was nothing to do with the Obama camp at all.
On a tangent - CBC exonerates Obama over NAFTAgate
>According to CBC, all the details were wrong. Canada contacted the campaigns. Ambassador Michael Wilson was not involved. And, most damning, they {the Canadian government} are now admitting that the memo at the heart of the controversy “may not accurately reflect what they were told”.The news agency quoted that source as saying that Mr. Brodie said that someone from Ms. Clinton’s campaign called and was “telling the embassy to take it with a grain of salt.”<
This really is clutching at straws. Every politcal ad either drains the color from or darkens the color of the opponents picture to make a distinction. Lots of ads show the opponent in black&white and then show themselves in vibrant color. This is a pretty silly attempt to attack Hillary.
Sad thing is, it’ll work.
42/
“Could be an NTSC artefact. The american video standard is known in the trade as “Never Twice the Same Color””
Very true. They say they got three different sources but obviously these were all videos of the actual debate, which of course isn’t comparable to making an advert. The three videos didn’t have anywhere near the same work done on them as the Clinton advert.
I just don’t see how the bloggers could come to such conclusions. It could very well be intentional but there’s no way to prove it.
Making an issue out of it reveals prejudices as bad as those it thinks it’s attacking - there has to be an assumption that Clinton’s strategy is based on racism which would imply that racism is a significant factor which helps Clinton… whereas all evidence so far is that it isn’t for Whites.
Finally they ignore the possibility that darker skin tone would help Obama among Blacks.
49. The problem with stuff like this is that information, unlike money in a banking system, can not be recovered. Once it’s out, it’s out. And we all know every paper in the country will have an insider employee on the database whenever they want to find out about a new name. Not to mention private detectives and more notorious organisations like the Church of Scientology.
53. I don’t think Clinton has much of the black vote to lose any more. I think this story is probably nothing, but it’s undeniable that the Clinton’s have tried to reinforce Obama as the black candidate in this campaign. What else did Bill mean by his Jesse Jackson remarks?
42, Jonathon. A quote from the AmericaBlog.Com to which MikeS has linked.
“I went and got the original footage from the Clinton ad, and then compared it to 3 different video clips of the same debate from 3 different sources. I did this so as to take into account any editing, or quality issues, that might have accounted for Obama having darker skin in any particular video. None of the 3 video sources I found showed Obama nearly as black as the Hillary ad does.”
It would seem that they anticipated yours and others reaction to this accusation and did the necessary checks first.
53. “There has to be an assumption that Clinton’s strategy is based on racism”
Given past form, that’s not a totally unfounded assumption.
Are the Clinton’s really that callous?
If it’s true then it speaks of desperation.
51. This has been covered by the news networks already. It was the conservative Canadian goverment trying to wreak havoc in the Democratic party.
56. Is the blogger technically qualified to pass such a subjective opinion? Nope
Can we exclude, even if true, the possibility of it being a random artifact? Nope
Even if true, do we know what effect, if any, it has had on people who watched it and didn’t notice anything out of the ordinary? Nope
Is this a story? Only for PC-obsessed twerps….
60. The problem is Rod, that there are several PC-Obsessed twerps in the democrat party. How will this play with them? Or how will it play with those who think it’s the race card being played? Or will everyone just shrug and roll their eyes?
So here’s some proof about how the anti-Obama smear campaigns helped to depress his vote in Ohio.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/02/ohio-voter-on-60-minutes_n_89476.html
As the man on the video says - he heard that Obama doesn’t know the words to the National Anthem and is a muslim.
This is what is so disgraceful about anyone, *anyone*m who indulges in negative campaigning. You are preying on the weak and gullible and attempting to profit from their credulity. A certain labour MP has the epithet of ’scum’ reserved for him in my book and whoever has propagated this anti-Obama information is just as bad.
Obama is fighting dirty now then? That really is a stupendous claim. It’s clearly just a dark picture. I”m starting to find this race amusing it is becoming so childish it makes Ken Livingstone look robust and thick skinned.
According to the blog apparently the MSNBC logo is “more purple”. Sounds like it could be an NTSC effect caused by poor quality equipment. You’d only need one poorly calibrated mixer or digitiser to cause the chrominance to drift slightly. Don’t ask me why I know this.
It does look like the whole picture has been darkened.
I assume it’s to increase the contrast between the two candidates, make Hilary appear softer and him to appear harsher and more unfriendly. I doubt it has anything at all to do with race.
only another 6 weeks of this eh?
Rod I think you know from this site that bloggers are technically qualified to pass any subjective opinion. At least twice.
The fact it is more purple (more magenta) is a big clue. If the phase had drifted the other way he would have looked green and they might be claiming that Obama was made out to be an Alien.
68 - An ILLEGAL alien even
Obama has never done anything bad, ever. Hes a lovely fella who quite simply is the innocent victim of horrible people….
This will only run if the masses buy it. If they don’t then it will backfire on Obama and suggests a dose of anxiety if his people tried to launch the story. Daily Kos has been been fairly strongly behind him versus Clinton so would be an interesting channel IF Obama’s campaign did lanuch it
61. Grown-ups don’t get involved in such piffling nonsense.
The most telling and humorous exchange over the race “issue” was the Channel 4 interviewer asking the good ‘ol white farm-boy in Iowa why he was voting for Obama, a black man, in a 99%-white state.
After ruminating, the old farmer said: “Well, you know, he’s only….half-black..”
I suspect Obama is a big enough guy to see the funny side of that, and thank the chap for this vote!
70. he doesn’t need it to work with the masses, just needs it to help him to a blowout win in mississippi on tuesday
72. And the people in Missisippi are not part of the masses?
Anyone know what’s happening with the caucus vote in Texas? It wqas at 38% counted yesterday and now it’s at 40%. At this rate they won’t finish counting until after the convention.
http://precinctconventionresults.txdemocrats.org/election08district
The final figures will be a good Obama fillip so maybe he’s quite happy to have it strung out.
60. Read my comment again, I stated nothing, nor gave an opinion one way or the other, I would appreciate it if you dropped the unpleasant and condescending tone.
74. Obama’s website is now predicting an overall Texas win of 99:94, down from 100:93 a few hours ago…
http://origin.barackobama.com/resultscenter/
75. Any condescension was not directed at you, but the author of the blog.
Unlike some on here, I never shoot the messenger….
71. But how the more childish elements in the democratic party view it does give it a betting element. I imagine it will be a storm in a tea cup.
Do you have a probabilistic forecast for February’s MORI? I apologise if you’ve already posted one.
78. Yes it was posted, but here it is..
Central probabilistic forecast (Mori)
Con 264
Lab 313
LD 38
Nats 14 (assumes SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
6-poll moving average
Con 295
Lab 277
LD 41
Nats 16
Oth 3
NI 13
The polls have appeared static for several weeks now, with my best guess of true support as
Con 39-40%
Lab 32-33%
LD 17-18%
probably enough to put the Tories ahead in a HP, but a long way from a majority…
Latest North Carolina poll has Obama only 4 points ahead. HRC has closed the gap hugely in the last month.
Rasmussen has her re-opening a large lead in Pennsylvania too. It’s up to 15 points.
The polls suggest she’s on her way back. If she wins PA by a mile the argument that Obama can’t win in the key states for November gains a lot more credibility.
Interesting article on that point.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/tough_math_on_the_democratic_s.html
We might be in for a whole lot more negative campaigning before this is over.
The childish elements of the Democratic Party have already toned it down abit.
They originally put on a moustache and some dark glasses.
63. 70. Once again, there is no evidence whatsoever that this comes from the Obama campaign.
80. That statistical analysis was complete drivel. The fact that one Democratic candidate loses a state to another Democratic candidate has next to zero bearing on how they would do in that state versus a Republican. Obama lost New York by a hefty margin too, does that mean he will struggle to hold it against McCain? Obama lost Ohio because union people were concerned about free trade and there was the kerfuffle over the Canadian memo. These people are hardly going to vote for the ultra free trade Republican party.
79. Possibly. But we all know if the Tories are ahead 6% they’re unlikely to be polling that equally from Glasgow where no one votes for them to Surrey where practically anyone going to already does. In other words a 6% lead would be highly likely to be frontloaded into marginals skewing it in their favour and pushing them far closer to a Majority than you think.
82. How big did you want my ‘if’ to be?
70.Hilary stages a comeback of sorts to stay in the race a bit longer as Obama comes under attack, and the Obama campaign simple moves up a notch. Considering the narrative over the last week, it looks like his team are going all out to get this nomination tied up.
Hilary was supposed to be the experienced pair of hands with a hand picked team around her, Obama has left her in the dust on that score. I don’t think McCain will be able to stop the Obama juggernaut either, even if the Republicans employ the same negative tactics they did against Kerry last time.
84. Rod’s model takes account of that.
83. Yep, it’s like saying a left(or right)-wing Labour(or Conservative) candidate makes a difference in a particular seat in a UK general election. Apart from a few notorious and special exceptions, the evidence in general is zippo….
83 - It is still a fact that she has won the popular vote in every major industrial state apart from Illinois (which was obviously a no-contest like New York). Obama can’t win without convincing the Super Delegates to put him over the line.
Where have this block of 50 he was supposed to unveil yesterday disappeared to?
What do you mean? You’re not an iron believer in UNS are you like the farcical Baxter projections of no Liberal seats. You seriously saying that say a 6% increase in Tory vote share will show up equally in the Glasgow Centrals of this Country as the Dovers? Really
89. Where’d you hear that?
Time article suggesting Barack Obama win is inevitable. It certainly looks that way in terms of him taking a lead to Denver.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1719614,00.html
Just in case I am accused of only picking pro-Hillary stuff up!
90. It’s probabilistic not UNS. I think. Obviously it will not be 100% accurate, but it is a lot better than UNS.
91 - People shouting Ding Dong the witch is dead said Obama’s campaign was gathering a block of Super Delegates to announce en masse for him. That noise has quietened down.
Perhaps Obama’s campaign should retaliate by publishing extra-white pictures of Hilllary to make her look like a deathly zombie alien witch.
The fieldwork for Mori pre-dates the YouGov. Anthony doesn’t know why it was released so late.
It took a long time to poll, presumably the-face-to-face-at-home-thing. But it was started on the same day as the last Com Res, with Labour on 30%!
????
83. What about non-industrial states? What about rural states? Or do these ones not count because Clinton’s support is highest in industrial areas?
Neither candidate could have won without superdelegates because superdelegates are 20% of total delegates. A candidate would have had to have won 2/3rds of elected delegates to be able to do that. In a proportional system that was never going to happen with two big names. Obama has won most states, most delegates and most votes - and also ranks best against McCain according to polling matchups, polling among Independents, and according to Democratic congressmen and women in red states.
Anyone read Martin Bright in the New Statesman. The article is about Brown but it moves on to the Democrats and Hilliary in particular.
This bit struck me.
‘In response, Labour is giving the impression that it is running out of ideas, falling back on the debased politics of the “lesser evil”. This was evident at the spring conference, as speaker after speaker warned of the dangers of Johnson winning London. This boiled down to the fact that the Tory candidate is posh and possibly a racist. Attacks on Cameron often amount to little more than an observation of his class background.
To be fair, I have to say this is not an entirely original idea. “Lesser evil calculus” was coined by Christopher Hitchens in his 1999 book on the Clintons, No One Left to Lie To. Anyone wishing to understand the politics of new Labour should re-read this evisceration of the New Democrats.
This brings us once again to what Hitchens referred to as America’s “worst family”. Tellingly, Hillary Clinton was given the nickname “Mrs Triangulation” as far back as 2005, thanks to her flawless right-wing approach to politics.
full link here
http://www.newstatesman.com/200803060013
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Didn’t mean to leave in the ‘leave a comment’
46. Socrates. Very sorry but I must have missed it.
Jonathon. I’m very impressed by your knowledge of NTSC. I have to ask how you happen to know all this? Getting colours correct has been the bane of my and every photographer and commercial film maker’s life.
Had a good laugh when I heard about this.
No-one could ever nail her for doing it, if she did, because representation of colour through the mediums of video/paint/photos is always interpretative. It’s impossible to make an exact representation. It’s amusing though.
I can’t see why people on here sometimes get so hot under the collar about politicians. Anyone would think you hold them up for sanctification. They are politicians. It’s what they are designed for: to stoop as low as possible and to get up to whatever shenanigans they can possibly get away with.
Name me 10 politicans since the last world war that you would trust with everything and anything in your life. It may take some time.
35 - Rosebud, you’re wrong - I’ll do very very well if Clinton gets the nomination!
I think she has a 15-20% chance of getting the majority in the popular vote and persuading super delegates who are getting nervous about the new guy that they could vote for her without it being an affront to democracy.
That’s maybe a little generous, but it really depends on Indiana and Oregon, and the margins of victory in the popular vote in the bigger states PA, WV, NC. OR
Obama: WY (caucus), MS, NC, MT, SD
Clinton: KY, WV, PA
Still in play: IN, OR (though I reckon both favour Obama)
84/90.
I’m afraid that is just wishful thinking. It did not happen in any systematic way in 2005, and there is so far no evidence it might happen in 2010. So words like “highly likely” are just hyperbolae..
See “From Votes to Seats”, by John Curtice…[Google it, because Mike’s spambot doesn’t like the URL for some reason]
“While, as we have already noted, on average Labour lost votes more heavily in seats it was defending against a Conservative challenger than it did across the country as a whole, the Conservatives themselves did not perform particularly well in such seats. Their share of the vote actually fell back slightly (by 0.1 point), compared with the half point increase in the party’s across the country as a whole. As a result, at 3.5, the average swing from Labour to Conservative in such seats was only a little above the overall national swing of 3.1%. If that 3.5% swing had occurred in every seat Labour was defending against the Conservatives, Mr Howard’s party would still have only won just two
more seats than anticipated by a national uniform change projection.
Perhaps, however, we are making a mistake in looking at all those seats where the Conservatives started off in second place to Labour. Perhaps there was a particularly strong swing to the Conservatives in those marginal seats where the party was not far behind Labour in 2001. This, however, proves not to be the case. While on average the Conservatives did perform rather better in those seats where the party started off less than ten points behind Labour (their vote increased on average by 1.4 points), so also did Labour (average drop, 5.4 points). In consequence, the average swing in these seats was, at 3.4%, little different from the 3.5% swing in all Labour/Conservative seats.”
Obama raised $55m during February (compared to Clinton’s $35m)
Talking about the MORI poll I notice that Labour are 8% ahead if you don’t just include those certain to vote. Difficult to know why the Tory vote is collapsing other than that they haven’t yet given anyone a good reason to vote for them and Boris reinforces some unattractive stereotypes.
I think some eople on this site hate Hillary so much that it colours there judgement. For the record I think obama is still the favourite but.
- he can’t get enough pledged delegates for a knock out blow and needs supers just like she does.
- what if she manages to pull back the popular vote?
- how likley is that if she starts winning bigger and they re run michigan and florida?
basically perception is everything in this race and having been burried in the press over the weekend she’s pulled off the biggest resurrection since Christ +10 in ohio + 4 in texas and +19 in RI (pop vote)
A weeks worth of great press, a poll bounce and lots more cash is the prize rather than delegates I accept but there is now no reason why she shouldn’t contest pennsylvania. And if she wins that? we’ll then why is Obama a shoe in?
35. A Citizen Kane fan?
http://www.surveyusa.com/
goodness me, plenty for avid poll watchers to look at there !
test
105. As much as i would love the tory vote to collapse; it’s only one poll at the moment.
As Anthony Wells says: “we shouldn’t obsess too much over the ups and downs of individual voting intention polls since right now the next one is likely to contradict yo”
Its difficult to judge MORI because the field work is old but for the second month running it painsta far rosier picture for labour than most other polls. Also I notice with anxiety the LD’s stuck at 16%. while MORI is never our best pollster its not You Gov either….
110. I’ve said the same thing, with a bit more statistical precision: “There is only a 1 in 4 chance a particular poll will correctly report a party’s true share of the vote; three out of four will be ‘wrong’”….
I wish Mike wouldn’t hype-up each poll. It’s an very unscientific approach to politics…
Hopefully all the horrid traitors who didn’t let us have a referendum - despite pretending to call themselves “Democrats” - will be thrown out at the next election and replaced by someone who at least understands the meaning of the word “democracy” - even if it has to be the UKIP rather than a progressive people’s representative…
A friend of the Save Bedford Hospital party was at the House of Commons yesterday, checking things out for when we are in parliament. He was at a reception and talking to the man in charge of the wine. Apparently the House of Commons wine cellars have had a £7million upgrade (not the wines, just the facilities for storing the wine).
Who pays for it all? Need we ask.
Meanwhile Jodrell Bank i closing down for the want of £2.6 million
re 112. So what do I do Rod - ignore them? And the point of polls from a gambling standpoint is not about working out who is going to win the election but how they affect the current political perceptions. Other elements can be equally or even more important thann the numbers themselves come into play. Thus an ICM poll that’s splashed all over the front page of the Guardian will have a much bigger impact than ComRes which is tucked away “below the fold”, as we used to say in the newspaper business, on an inside page in the Indy
As such polls can change the views of punters and this site’s primary purpose is about political betting.
re 105. Roger - the “all naming a party” figure from MORI is invariably much better for Labour than the “certains to vote”. The reason MORI uses the latter is that Labour supporters don’t turn out on anything like the scale of those of the other parties.
Sorry to go off thread, but Gilligan in the Standard was interesting tonight. His article was on why Boris wasn’t pulling his weight as a candidate, and should not expect to win on the basis of support from the paper. He also indicated at future revelations about Lee Jasper.
This one is going to run and run.
116. “So what do I do Rod - ignore them?”
No of course not, but appropriate health warnings should be attached, and more sophisticated analyses of trends should be employed. You can help with the former - and as people are aware, I and others do our best with the latter…
btw, on this subject is anyone out there a genius at the Perl programming language?
I need a chunk of Perl deconstructed - pseudo code would be fine.
80) David Roe “The polls suggest she’s on her way back. If she wins PA by a mile the argument that Obama can’t win in the key states for November gains a lot more credibility.”
This is Hillary camp spin. The spin is trotted out every day - “if Hillary beats Obama in a BIG state or a BATTLEGROUND state that means Obama could not beat McCain in that state”
This is plainly spin. A democratic primary is obviously not the same test as a general election in a state.
A lot of the work for democrats in primaries in places like Ohio is appealing to the democratic base. In a general election this isn;t good enough - the base is locked up, its the centre ground that needs winning.
Obama has consistently outperformed among independents and has even attracted some repubs. Watch out for the “big state spin”.
Barry wine has to be kept at just the right temperature and humidity. With all your scalpels, drugs and and sterile bandages I would have thought you would know how important it is to have the correct storage conditions.
So my £2 on Paddick may yet be wise Augustus - If so will it be the first time Mike admits losing a bet?
118. Augustus. Don’t you find something unattractive about Gilligan’s innuendo that ‘there’s more to come’. If he’s got something wouldn’t someone less of a slug come out and say what it is? Can you imagine a serious investigative journalist like Robert Fisk behaving like that?
120. to back this up, check out the surveyusa link i posted further up
Icarus. I think I’d sooner trust my health to the House of commons sommelier than I would to Barry
105 “Collapsing”? Evidence please Roger.
If the Tories are “collapsing” what has happened to Labour and the Lib Dems?
On Superdelegates;
3 Supers announced for Obama just today (i figured the gap was just 39 this morning).
Nick Rahall (D - WV)
Ian Carleton (Chairman of the Vermont Dems).
Teresa Benitez-Thompson (Vice Chair, Nevada State Dems).
Clinton has not announced a single superdelegate supporter since Tuesday. That’s right, not a single one.
Wendy Alexander will not be prosecuted, official.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7281820.stm
Morus - wasn’t a pop at you, just at the running of a non-story like this.
To my mind the Florida/Michigan story is bubbling under nicely and needs more airtime. Florida, in particular, is a super story. The Republicans oppose a re-run, and there are whispers it’s because they don’t want Obama/McCain in the Fall. Even the state Democrats oppose a re-run… they’re all asking for their delegates to be seated. Quite how Howard Dean settles that is difficult to know. A re-run would cost the DNC about $25m, money they can’t afford.
I’ve done projections going forward too, Morus. The popular vote looks better for Clinton than I expected. In fact I have her leading the popular vote by about 50,000 before the TX caucus result comes in… I’d like someone else to look at that to check my figures.
Obama’s handling of Nafta-gate will have unsettled senior Democrats in my view. His first bad week and he loses 3 states. Everyone’s granted a bad week, but if PA goes the way it’s looking the outlook for Obama is not good.
127. That’s right
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/florida-and-michigan.html
See box on left-hand side.
She’s been losing on average 2 a day for the past month.
Thanks for the useful Curtis link, Rod. Mike hasn’t hyped this particular poll, though it’s striking that it’s differing from the pack two months running. That suggests a methodology effect rather than a rogue, and that might cast some extra light. Can someone remind us how MORI differs in methodology? IIRC they don’t adjust for past vote recall (which favours Labour) but apply a 10/10 turnout certainty test (which penalises Labour). One could maybe theorise that MORI reflects a Labour core vote - not huge but determined - but as Roger points out the poll shows Labour well ahead among ‘all expressing a preference’, as it usually does. Theories?
108. The Texas poll there is incredible: Obama one point behind McCain. That must make the GOP nervous!
Dan Smith @ 124 - thanks for pointing that out.
If people have not seen it, Surveyusa have a front page general election match-up survey of 30,000 people across 50 states - quite a piece of work, and given SUSA are known for accuracy - should help to quieten the “Obama can’t beat McCain like HRC could” rubbish…
127. gap is down to 35 according to rcp
everyone seems to have assumed (including me to an extent) that the superdelegates will act in a block and decide to pick a winner, is it just not as likely that we will see them carry on as they are now, slowly assigning themselves to either candidate. An analysis of who is left to declare and which way they might side would be most useful.
Looking at the Survey USA reaults suggests the following split of coming states -
Obama - N Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana
Clinton - Mississippi, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana
Clinton could get about 50 extra state electors with an extra couple of percent swing, Obama has much greater depth with a potential extra 103 extra state electors on the same swing.
130) Rod - I like that website. Their chart http://tinyurl.com/3b8dkx on supers is great!
Total non-story. The whole picture is darkened - there’s likely been a slight error in production, effectively resulting in lower black levels (aka brightness). Probably they forgot to convert back to TV levels after processing it.
Roger - I was trying to be ironic!
My old College has just asked for ideas - some land has just realised about £50m. I had thought of proposing a hand out to ex students (making a change from the begging letters and student phone calls) but a new wine celler on HoC lines is just what they need.
137 - Why was it widened?
135. Mississippi is guaranteed to go for Obama. Black voters make up a much bigger share of the electorate for the Democratic primary than they do for the whole shebang. I think it unlikely Indiana will go for her either - it’s industry has been far more successful than the rest of the rustbelt where Clinton has won, and there’s far less unionisation.
Dan Smith @ 134) This is the best analysis of what you’re asking about undeclared supers http://tinyurl.com/yp3p6r - from the NYT - discussion/comment. You can guess how 80% of of those commented on will vote for…
134. I forecast over a month ago that the SDs would gradually move towards a 50/50 split, and ultimately have no effect in determining the winner…
140 - Just going off the SurveyUSA figures, I wouldn’t therefore trust any spin on the lines of those states never being in play for Clinton, they clearly are.
140 Whoops I got the Indiana one the wrong way round, it is more favourable for Obama on those figures, Mississippi is, more strangely, favourable for Clinton though.
On thread - yes picture has been darkened, question is was it deliberate or a technical error. My vote goes more for an error. Anyone who has composed a photo on a screen maybe adjusting contrast or correcting levels so that there aren’t shiny foreheads for example knows how easy it is to get a screen version that is fine but a print version that’s too dark. Professionals using expensive commercial software should have the skills and technology but they will not necessarily get it right.
Doubt it will be a big thing in the media. For one thing they have started to change sides. At time of Iowa and New Hampshire reporters were all complaining about how the Clinton camp was a strictly managed operation and Hilary wouldn’t take questions. We had case of 9 year old “reporter” told by Chelsea should couldn’t do an interview. Obama’s camp was heralded as media friendly, volunteers and staff open with press, candidate approachable.
Story now is Clinton on SNL and the Daily Show, wandering to back of plane to chat, taking questions versus Barack walking out of press conference after 8 questions when NAFTA come up, being less approachable, the media feeling excluded. Little things but the Comeback fits with the mood of the press pack in finding the Obama camp a less attractive place.
Sorry but not convinced about the Super Delegates - is it a secret ballot? Are their pledges of support really bankable? If they get promised something if they vote the right way won’t they be tempted? Surely the Clintons know a lot about the Super Delegates.
131. MORI’s sampling is rubbish and finds incredibly (in the real sense of the word) high numbers of Labour voters. To avoid total emmbarassment, they try to offset this with a very harsh turnout filter.
A bit like adding masses of sugar to really appalling coffee in an attempt to make it palatable. Result - rubbish. Ignore.
Clinton ahead on popular vote?
How do you calculate that… Unless, unless you include a primary where Obama wasn’t even standing. (and which he’d almost certainly win if it were re-run)
144) - I’d guess racism - sections of the state’s democrats and indies would rather vote for the white man..
Evening all
Completely o/t but a thought from me:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/03/its-stupid-economy.html
So actually Obama won Texas? (if 99-94 tally is accurate or near enough) Er, have we had the Betfair conversation yet? As they failed to clarify the basis of their Texas winner market - despite being given plenty of opportunities to do so (see Political Capital), and whilst other bookies were being specific - is there a chance that the market will be voided or reversed or some other solution?
OK, no prizes for guessing which side of that equation my money was on.
re 90 Baxter is not UNS
146. It’s not a secret ballot. You should bear in mind that the Clinton built their entire campaign on the notion of inevitability. They wanted it to be over by Super Tuesday. Thus they would have told any of the superdelegates they had control over to announce before the thing began (and indeed, many did). Any of those who have not declared have either made their mind up very recently, or are yet to decide.
re 105 Roger it matters not a jot how much Tory stereotypes “revolt” people if those who say they would vote for you will never darken the door of a polling station. You’ll lose, simple as that.
115
Yes,but this goes towards the funding of £ 8 million for MP’s communications allowance which is a priority in anyone’s book and may help some Labour MP’s to keep their seats.
123. Roger.
Living outside London I don’t get to read the Evening Standard. I am aware of it’s animosity towards Livingstone and of Gilligan being their standard bearer. But I disagree with your take on this. Gilligan is a serious investigative journalist who led on the biggest uk political story of the last decade. To describe him as a slug is unkind.
If he has something big that he is yet to reveal on Ken, of course he is going to choose his timing for maximum impact. I don’t know what he thinks he has got on Ken but my money is on Boris for Mayor.
128 saw this comment on the Herald website - it made us laugh
Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 6:03pm today
You cannot prosecute the mentally ill.
Quote | Report this post
128
Nasty shock when you open your attachment,She’s seriously ugly,Walt Disney must be concerned over the similarirty with Donald Duck’s mouth.
(Sorry, Roger, I was caled away)
No, I don’t find Gilligan’s handling of the Livingstone/Jasper affair distasteful at all. I think it is inspired journalism of the highest order. I believe the old adage is “Always leave them wanting more”!
156. Roger’s grotesquely and mindlessly partisan take on everything once again in evidence tonight. If Gilligan were revealing sordid details about a Tory politician, he would be a hero - as it’s a Labour one, he’s a ’slug’.
Roger is apparently charming in person - but invariably gives the impression on this site of being a deeply unpleasant individual.
Is this the same Gilligan that was involved in the Dr Kelly affair?
Nick Griffin on Newsnight in an in-depth look at the alienation of the white, working-class…
yes; same gilligan
161. 62% say life has got worse over the past 10 years…
161. Clearly someone that would give a nuanced, objective analysis.
92% say no respect for authority anymore…
164. He hasn’t started yet, so how would you know?
163. Obviously it has. Labour have been in power.
I