What odds that McCain won’t be the nominee?
March 6th, 2008
What about a “something untoward” wager?
Some bookmakers have already paid out on John McCain securing the Republican nomination for the November Presidential election. While that’s very commendable it is important to note that he isn’t the nominee yet and we’ll have to wait until the party convention in September before this is formalised.
Betfair, which has seen nearly £1.8m matched on this market, will be holding onto punters’ money (and earning a nice slab of interest) until everything is formalised at the convention. This is a hard call but I think they are right. For if, say, something untoward happened to McCain in the next six months then those with bets on other contenders or those who have laid McCain would have a cause for complaint if they had already settled.
McCain, of course, will have celebrated his 72nd birthday by the time of convention and clearly that could be an issue. There is also a possibility that in the ensuing months something could come out about his background that would make his position untenable.
Whatever there is a risk and the question is whether this is worth betting on and if so how?
The current Betfair lay price on MCCain (you betting that he won’t be the nominee) is 1.04. That means you are getting 25/1 which doesn’t appear generous and would not tempt me.
But what about a bet on one of the other contenders. Could the “miracle” that Mike Huckabee said he was hoping for give him the nomination in the end? Mitt Romney, of course, only suspended his campaign and still has a lot of delegates - could he make after all?
Another factor could be that McCain announced his V-P choice and that person would look well set to slip into the top role should something untoward happen.
I’ve got £4 on Romney at 150/1 and £2 on Huckabee at 200/1.
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Is this explicitly a “what if he keels over” question, or are there other more subtle factors at play?
1 - In part yes. There could be a serious scandal develop though. I think it is highly unlikely that he won’t be the nominee.
NEW THREAD …. NEW THREAD …. NEW THREAD …. NEW THREAD
“What odds that Jack W won’t be the nominee of the American Jacobite Party?”
500/1 ??
You think I allow competition !!!
But …….. Jack W is 105.
Mike 1/25 not 25/1.
So would betfair not void the market if McCain dies? They void some bets on race horses… 1.04 looks like fantastic value to me..
4) oops sorry Mike mis-read you.
Sorry to go off topic but I had to respond to this post from Roger on the previous thread:
““The British have major influence in the world ……..”
Some people really do live in a parallel universe!”
China’s top political think tank released its view of world power rankings only last year, using a myriad of factors. Here is the list, with the power rating listed along side:
1) United States - 90.69
Canada - 57.09
2) Britain - 65.04
3) Russia - 63.03
4) France - 62.00
5) Germany - 61.93
6) China - 59.10
7) Japan - 57.84
9) South Korea - 53.20
10) India - 50.43
Clearly the Americans are the most powerful by far. But Britain is second. Roger, is it your view that only one country has major influence and no-one else counts? Or is there some insight you have that is absent from China’s best political scientists?
re 4. Yes 1/25 for the backer is 25/1 for the layer.
Betfair could not void the market which is over who becomes the GOP nominee at the convention in September.
Without sounding macabre those still with open bets on McCain are gambling on his mortality.
Hillary gets a bounce in the latest SUSA Presidential match-ups, taken after Tuesdays results :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 46% .. Obama 46%
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/05/1st-nationwide-clinton-vs-mccain-poll-after-clinton-victories-in-oh-and-tx/
From previous thread..
295. I have left the sheet open to consider the “possibility” of Puerto Rico awarding its delegates by FPTP, purely as a mathematical exercise. Frankly, though, as I said when this story first broke, it was never going to happen.
Btw, Clinton’s dropped another two Superdelegates overnight. Her lead was 96 a month ago; it’s now 40. At this rate it will have vanished completely in three weeks time.
Face it, the Witch was dead after Super Tuesday; Maine was the stake through the heart. Ohio and RI were just post-mortem twitches. It’s safe to come out again.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Democrats.xls
Ding Dong!
3 - Jack W may be 105 but he will be Jacobite Candidate whether he is dead or alive come November. Some pretty heavy electoral strategists and Big Wheels on the American scene have speculated that the former scenario would actually improve his electoral prospects.
Florida and Michigan politicians have started discussions on how to rerun their ballots. If they take it to the rules committee, which is stacked with Clinton supporters, it would be fairly likely to get through - this is what the DNC argued they should do before the race began.
Slightly O/T but why does the Spectator front page cartoon of Hillary look like a bleach blond Cherie?
11. Obama should support them. Any re-run would produce a better result for him that having them sat “as-is”, even if Clinton wins them.
Is the best long-shot wager not Al Gore for the Democrats? A scenario in which neither Clinton or Obama has a majority of elected delegates, then the wranglings over super-delegates and the delegates of Florida and Micigan delegeats decends the convention into a bloody battle of vicious attack after vicious attack from one side to the other and back, threatening to split the democrats apart. In steps wise old Al Gore to negotiate some sort of agreement which makes him the comprimise candidate, and keep the democrats together as a party. (for the record I have £10 on Al Gore at 67.5 on betfair so yes I have put some money where my mouth is on this what may sound to some rediculous scenario)
13: Halloween coming early?
@10:
I’ve had many a nibble from concerned swingers that suggest maybe it’s a minimum requirement.
14 - I’m not sure that it IS totally ridiculous. If they start playing nasty games they could be seen to have damaged each other so much they switch to someone unsullied. In that case a new Nobel laureat becomes a unity candidate.
I’d want 100s though.
14 - The difficulty is that for a deadlocked convention you really need more than two candidates. It might be very, very close but the chances are that one of them will get a majority. If Edwards had hung about until Super Tuesday and gathered a sizeable block of elected delegates it might be a different story.
Does anyone know where the best odds are to be found for Mccain to be the next president?
I want to put on a bet before the Democrats go into meltdown,
14. If a compromise was needed it would be an Obama-Clinton ticket. Clinton has suggested she is prepared to do that, and would accept VP over a Gore Presidency. Gore would get murdered against the GOP anyway.
10 James.
… Dead cert regardless !!
19 TTT. 13/8 widely available from conventional bookies. Betfair around 35/19.
Thanks Jack. I will have a look at Betfair then. Right now the Democrats are tearing chunks out of each other and I would think that their odds are likely to deteriorate until the nomination is settled.
Anyone ‘on the ground’ can tell us how the news that, in fact, Hillary lost Texas is playing?
Some weeks ago, many were saying it was all over for her if she lost Texas.
Well, Hill? We’re waiting.
Of the remaining candidates I would think Obama is most likely not to be alive at the time of the conventions. That said I expect him to be back in the senate in December.
@25:
You expect him to rise from the dead?
lol wut?
Sorry to go O/T.
Below is a comment from Sky News Blog, just to show that it is not neccessarily the case that the Tories are horrible to the Lib Dems…
As 15 of their own MPs also trooped off to vote with the Conservatives and Labour rebels, the remaining Lib Dems squirmed with embarrassment and looked as if they hoped the green benches would swallow them up. One Lib Dem MP, Lorely Burt, was - I’m told - close to tears. And well she might be.
With a majority of just 279 over the Tories in the leafy Birmingham suburb of Solihull, she already looks like what MPs cruelly call a “one-term wonder”.
After the vote, Anne Main, the stern-looking, school-mistressy Tory MP for St Albans, protested to the Deputy Speaker, Sir Alan Haselhurst, about Labour MPs taking photos of the humiliated Lib Dems with their mobile phones.
Mr Speaker would want to investigate that, Sir Alan replied, equally sternly. To help him with his inquiries, I can reveal that one Labour MP in the frame, so to speak, was Reading West’s Martin Salter.
Jon Craig.
24 Martin C. Team Hillary believes that the caucus system doesn’t count …. or small states …. or red states …. or Obama states !!
27 and another irony is that the person who dreamed up the “inout” policy could not be bothered to turn up to its actual vote.
He left it up to the rest of his colleagues to go through the humiliation of losing the earlier battle without him.
http://tinyurl.com/3579he
“Ming Campbell abstained on his own policy”
27. This is what compassionate Conservatism is all about - caring for the sick, the deprived, the hopeless people in our society.
Whoever comes out of the Hillary/ Obama spat will come out stronger. McCain is the turkey waiting for the Democrats Xmas-
Martin C - Taking into account your highly ambivalent reply on the last thread, my impression that you are a highly unpleasant Labour MP (in disguise, of course) is but strengthening. Very ugly.
207. thats just mean.
@32:
If you like, we could meet on hallowed ground and you could search my body for the Devil’s Mark. Then, and only then, would you perhaps see that I’m not a Labour MP.
29 Noted that only 1 Tory BOO MP voted - Bob Spink, and he voted both Aye and No so was making some sort of point about positive abstention. Amazing really that offered a vote on what they have always wanted no single Tory BOO MP supported the amendment.
14. & 17. The fact that’s he’s a Nobel Laureate and an eco champion I think would actually count against him in a GE. More than that he’s damaged goods as he lost an election. They won’t return to Gore.
My biggest problem though with betting on the eventual candidate either for the Repubs or the Demos is that it ties up valuable stake money until the conventions. Even to take the 1.35/6 on Obama and then to lay him next week when it falls again may give a wee profit but my stake will be inaccessible until August.
I think the fact that the Democratic contest will run and run for the forseeable future gives the informed punter a good few opportunities to turn over a reasonable profit and to have your stakes returned regularly.
Having said that a £2 punt on McCain not lasting until the election (or falling ill and raising serious health issues) could be very worthwhile. Good advice Mike.
13 - The re-runs only help Clinton if they are primaries. The Governor of Michigan indicated that only a caucus would be possible. Crist in Florida has said though that a re-run primary would be possible.
I had this argument with Socrates the other day, and you’re both right that Clinton would do worse in terms of percentage points victory. However she could get more of a PV boost because turnout would likely be much higher (that is why she needs primaries). As I’ve said before the only way I see Clinton getting the nomination is winning the PV. She is too far behind in pledged delegates now. If Florida and Michigan are re-run and Obama continues to weaken over the next few weeks and months it is possible for her to get the lead back, but unlikely.
Another point, if the Democrats or Republicans had the rules adopted by the other party things would be very different. Clinton would be now be the clear front-runner, as WTA would have given her a major advantage in the delegate count. Romney would probably still be in the race as a proportional system kept things going a lot longer. Also, there has been much comment that the calendar favours Hillary but Michigan and Florida voting when they did damaged her. If they had voted on ST she would ahve won them both and come out with a clear pledged delegate lead, and the Obama lead now would be smaller. Just goes to show how much luck there is in politics.
New attack ad on Mccain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cN10_6pyshQ
It looks like this will be main line the Democrats will use.
OT-
I hope this isn’t spamming the board (Mike, please delete if it is), but after the Euro debate yesterday, I wanted to write a piece on what the challenges for the Tories on Eurpoe were from a Labour perspective. It’s mostly about how the Tories got where they are and what that means for the future. it’s now up over at my blg. click my name to see it.
I don’t want to get the debate here back on to europe (eeek!), but some peoples comments -esp some Tories- were very thoughtful yesterday and I wanted to try and respond more fully.
Obviously I’m no great expert on the conservative party, so I especially welcome any correction on the nature of the internal euro-debates with the Tory party.
Martin Coxall (34). That is a temptation I can easily resist!
The fact that you come up with such an untempting offer only confirms that you are really a Labour MP disguised as an unpleasant Tory.
37. “Another point, if the Democrats or Republicans had the rules adopted by the other party things would be very different.” Up to a point. Presumably the candidates’ strategies would have been modified accordingly.
@Tressage/40:
Well, if there’s nothing I can do to convince you that I’m not a Labour MP, I should probably get used to the role.
Now, there must be somebody round here I can tax…
Just a quick note on the General - I’m not sure the conventional wisdom on this is right. As Hillary points out many previous primaries have gone on a while and only been wrapped up near the convention. Does it really harm the candidates? Most Americans wont properly start thinking about the election until the fall and the nominees are known. Also, the election hasn’t been that dirty, and the GOP will throw a lot more mud at the nominee. The danger of it degenerating is limited in that in a primary, particularly on the Dem side, playing dirty is a double edged sword.
There are also advantages for a prolonged contest. The Dems will get most of the media attention over the next few weeks and months. The Democrats will also be laying the foudations for their GOTV operation. Take Texas. The Dem turnout was 2.8m, the same as voted for Kerry in the 2004 General. Those people are much more likely to vote in the General now they have done so in the Primary. The big downside is that it allows McCain to regroup and raise money, but the Dems will have to worry about money. So, while there are risks for the Dems it is not all doom and gloom.
37 If the super rich candidates were willing to offer Michigan the cash for a Primary I’m sure the Governor would oblige. Think Crist said a Florida primary would cost $4m - so 2 days collections from Obama and 4 days from Hillary and Florida & Michigan could hold primaries.
Martin (42).
Now you are begining to confuse me - you can’t be an unpleasant Tory AND a typical Labour Mp at the same time……
30. You undid all my goodwork [but you were funny].
From a distance you can laugh but in the chamber I think I’d be another school-mistressy Tory MP on this one.
40 Surely you mean, ‘an unpleasant Labour MP disguised as a Tory’.
27.Pretty unedifying behaviour which must have been quite blatant if it forced an MP from another party to complain to the Speaker of the House.
Charles Clarke has offered more supportive and helpful advice to Gordon
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/06/greenpolitics.labour
48. cor blimey, clarke really hates brown doesnt he!
47. What do you think The Speaker will do about it.?
On that note, more from Sky News….
‘Michael Martin’s former spokesman has been telling MPs about the shoddy standards in the Speaker’s office.
Mike Granatt, you’ll remember, resigned a couple of weeks back after having unwittingly mis-led a journalist over Mrs Martin’s 4 thousand quid taxi bill.
This morning he told the Public Adminstration Select Committee that he felt ‘betrayed’ over the affair.
He went on to say that ‘the one mistake I made was in believing that the standards and behaviour of employess and staff in Whitehall over 25 years I would find elsewhere.’
J Levy.
Sally (46). Would you settle for “an unpleasant Labour MP disguised as an unpleasant Tory”?
Or would you prefer to define Martin as a normal Tory?
Either way, he has decided to modify his role, and is today - so far - much more pleasant.
48. His political instincts are to choose this moment to side with Nick Clegg.
Perhaps he fancies being leader after all, and scents an opening.
Interesting thought about the Daily Mail’s atttitude to Europe, didn’t it support Ken Clarke has leader last time around?
See Conhome has printed Clarke’s comments about referendums, (is that the acccepted plural?).
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2008/03/ken-clarke-the.html
As if Clarke gives a sh** about climate change. The only change that has bothered him has been his move to the backbenches.
Wait a minute, didn’t Alan B’stard cross the floor?
http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41463000/jpg/_41463374_mayall203300.jpg&imgrefurl=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4825834.stm&h=300&w=203&sz=16&hl=en&start=3&um=1&tbnid=SI7yM0oGot9TZM:&tbnh=116&tbnw=78&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dalan%2Bb%2527stard%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN
Well some Lib Dem MPs actually are on the same page on some days.
(shock)
Lorely Burt says “Nick Clegg will be making his first conference speech….”
http://tinyurl.com/34n3h5
Sandra Gidley says “Nick Clegg will be making his first conference speech……”
http://tinyurl.com/38f3py
OT. Are the Conservatives also bound by their 2005 manifesto or is it only the governing party? As I was flicking through the last thread I wondered whether Dave is similarly obliged to stick by his predecessors manifesto in all respects?
30. (”Compassionate Conservative” always makes me laugh too!)
51. I am afraid I haven’t been on this site long enough to get a clear picture of everyone [except SeanT!] and when I am on there is so much background noise in my home that my concentration is not always 100% [imagine the HoC with children - not a stretch] so I will not comment on whether Martin is a normal Tory, a Tory or indeed normal….
But I would never settle for an unpleasant Labour MP…
Andrew Stephen writing in the NS, points to a couple of reasons as to why, ‘things’ turned for Clinton.
http://www.newstatesman.com/200803050001
@51:
As I said, I apologised to Nick Palmer for being unnecessarily rude: I was in a angry about the Lisbon brouhaha, but it wasn’t really his fault and I was out of order. He didn’t vote for Brown any more than I did…
You can’t fault me for being passionate. Maybe a little… too… passionate.
My mood is much better now. The story about Labour MPs photographing forlorn Lib Dems with their mobiles has amused me no end.
49
I don’t know what Clarke’s complaining about we’ve got Brown’s plastic bags hotline which he personally launched.
It was just a coincidence that there was an emergency debate on Northern Rock in the HoC at the same time.
60. “You can’t fault me for being passionate. Maybe a little… too… passionate”
I don’t think anyone does. Just for being rude and creepy……
Breaking news, the news of the day!!!!!
http://tinyurl.com/3afrxw
Hmmmm if anyone out there lives in Redditch, pavements! are they particularly attractive?
50.Speaker won’t do anything, but I would name and shame them with a nice big mugshot of each of them and their constituencies duly noted as well.
29.”27 and another irony is that the person who dreamed up the “inout” policy could not be bothered to turn up to its actual vote.”
Something tells me that Ming was probable advised that his appearance to show solidarity with his colleagues might not be all that welcome.
@Roger/62:
Okay then. What did I say that was creepy? (Apart from inviting Tressage to inspect me naked in a church, obviously)
Hey, I’ve been reading my own thriller and can I just say it is quite seriously unpleasant. This is probably because I poured all the nasty elements of my character into my villain. And he really is horrible. Ugh.
Not sure whether to be pleased about the impact or appalled at the unflattering self-image. Maybe both.
Just a couple of points to be cleared up from the last EU thread. NickP says he quite likes being “the reasonable man assailed by nutters”; I’d say that’s a fair comment, I’d only amend it by saying Nick is more accurately described, on EU matters, as being a “mendacious quisling assailed by nutters”. A small difference, but maybe an important one.
And Roger! lol! Calm down.
Love the praise for my writing, thankyou. Just one point to clarify: you claim I am a “Conference League writer” who had to “change his name to get any success”; you are entitled to your opinion, but just for the record my last book, Million of Women are Waiting To Meet You, written under my very own name, has so far been published in:
Britain
America
Spain
Italy
Germany
Russia
Norway
Portugal
and
South Korea
Not that bad for a “Conference League” writer.
Sawadee…
Hoping for an earthquake?
SeanT: you have achieved fame through detailing your sexual failings… you may not be conference league, but you are certainly very… brave
57. For once, an interesting question from Roger.
I would say that, yes, individual MPs are bound by their manifestos. So, for the sake of argument, if Brown introduced a policy that was in the Conservative manifesto, Conservative MPs should vote for it or face criticism. That was, after all, what lay behind Cameron’s support for Academies; the Conservatives promised more autonomy for schools in their manifesto and, even though the policy was not as radical, it would be wrong to oppose an extension of autonomy for the sake of ‘oppositionism’.
The difference for a government is that it is in power. Therefore, a voter should expect it to implement its manifesto policies in a timely manner ‘unless circumstances change markedly’, and then only with a clear explanation of the reasons for dropping the commitment.
Labour’s problem over Lisbon is its failure to provide reasons for reneging on the commitment to a referendum other than to argue that the Treaty is not a Constitution; what I would call semantics rather than argument.
BBC news reporting: Scottish Labour Leader will not be prosecuted over donations. Thought that had been decided a little while ago.
66. Your book is available on amazon for 25p - surely a Conference League price…
@SeanT/66:
And who wouldn’t rather be a nutter than a mendacious quisling?
Some of my best friends are nutters.
66. Brave? Nah. Stupid maybe. Foolhardy probably.
Successful? Yup!
[48] - Not that I don’t agree that Britain’s record is pathetic, but how does Clarke think we got there? He was a minister for eight years. Typical Blairite rubbish to blame others for their mess. It sounds as though they are getting their excuses in early, anticipating a crushing defeat at the next general election whatever happens.
73 Did you choose a title BTW? The “millions of women …” title was clever.
66 “Hey, I’ve been reading my own thriller and can I just say it is quite seriously unpleasant.”
Why are we not surprised?
Please advise which Pseudonym you decided on Sean, wouldn’t want to buy it by mistake!
43 “Most Americans wont properly start thinking about the election until the fall”
It’s over three decades since I worked this, but there was then a significant body of evidence that the voters have largely made up their minds by the end of the summer. The last few months of ya-boo politics doesn’t change much. Of course, they do need a candidate to be able to reach their decision (although this year there is a very significant (10%+) disparity between those who consider themselves Democrats and those (fewer) who are Republicans). Also, most Hillary supporters seem to be happy to vote for Obama and vice-versa if their preferred candidate isn’t the nominee - seem to perhasps less important to have the candidate in place.
78 sorry - should end “so it seems perhaps less important to have the candidate in place?”
74 - I think Clarke’s comments have as much to do with the very strong Green Party presence in his constituency (either close to or actually topped the poll in the wards making up his constituency last year) than a desire to cause trouble for Brown. Though he may have viewed it as a ‘two-for-the-price-of-one’ deal. Was the interview done after lunch?
@77:
It’s Lennigan ‘Flipper’ McNulty-Lerwick-DeTocqueville-Grabcocque.
Now, that’s how you choose noms-de-plume.
6, any links pertaining to that? I’m not doubting the list, just very interested in what factors the Chinese used.
Random fact: the Chinese word for England means ‘hero-people’. Clever chaps, those Chinese.
On topic: he’s a little old, but I can’t see McCain not being the nominee. Besides, if he isn’t that would love that odious turd Romney, or the very nice but completely crackers fellow Huckabee.
66/71 Of course SeanT is a dick in many ways, but play fair, the lad can write. I’d love to have had as big a bestseller and you can get Harry Potter books from 1p. So he has some way to go yet.
I am shocked and appalled that Labour poiticians should feel the need to descend into photoing their organised happy-slapping of Lib-Dem MP’s. Is the BBC coverage that poor?
71. The Da Vinci Code can be had for a penny:
http://tinyurl.com/23lh48
Often the cheapness of a book on amazon is directly correlated to the sheer numbers of copies out there.
Not that my book was a massive bestseller like the DVC - it wasn’t. It sold rather nicely rather than brilliantly. But it did sell round the world. And it had a few film offers - as yet unaccepted.
To continue the football analogy Roger established, I’d say I was recently promoted to the first division of the Championship, where I am in the lower ranks. No better than that.
However I am making an unexpectedly successful run in the cup - my pseudonymical thriller was commissioned for six figures by HarperCollins. But who knows if the actual book will sell in the shops.
75. My publishers want either
The Jericho Vault
or
The Genesis Secret
I’m not overly enthused by either title, but may plump for the second. Simply because it is fairly memorable, quite short, not off-putting, and it does what it says on the tin. The book revolves around a “secret” implied in the Book of Genesis.
Massmarket fiction is a new world to me so I am relying on my publishers’ wisdom.
77. My nom de plume is:
Tom Knox.
TOM KNOX!!!!
The new thriller from…. TOM KNOX!!!
Etc etc
Macho virile masculine monosyllables are apparently mandatory.
71,
Actually, Amazon’s RRP is £5.99, reduced from £7.99. Nine copies ‘used & new’ are available from £5.00 and a few independent dealers have second hand copies at 25p…! As to their condition, best not go there.
Wrt Rogers silly “Conference League” jibe, even when Roger’s scribbling are ‘free of charge’ they are more often than not, ignored.
86 - The 25p ones are probably the signed copies…
He could be dead before Nov 2008. This bloke is older than Ming, and look at the greif he took.
Funny really, the tories targetted Ming because of his age, and now McCain, an older bloke, has Cambo and the Tories salivating over him.
Tom Knox seems to have been a player for Hartlepool in the ’30s, So 4th division rather than Leicester City sounds about right!
my namesake at 83 is right about seant, he is possibly the biggest numpty on the world wide web but for some reason, that I am unable to fathom, I cannot wait to read his novel!
joncape
85 “Macho virile masculine monosyllables are apparently mandatory.”
It certainly helps for getting ahead in business in the US - two syllables is preferred, three pretty much the tops. Politics too. George Bush - gets to be President; but never a President Constantino Poppadopoulos. More than three syllables and you have to resort to initials - JFK, FDR.
Works here too: Gordon Brown; Tony Blair; John Major; Margaret Thatcher (four, but she was universally “Maggie”). James Callaghan - four syllables, who only inherited the job from Harold Wilson (who of course won four elections, but usually only barely). Ted Heath was a guaranteed winner.
David Cameron - he may well be in trouble with five. Hence, “call me Dave” to get it down to four. Honest.
Of course the LibDems tried to play the game with their new leader, but sadly he is now known as known as Nick Clegg-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. Fourteen - doomed.
SeanT. Even you can’t be fooled by the number of countries your book has sold into. A friend of mine wrote some trash about George Best and it sold all over the world but it was still trash.
As a sign of the mess the government has gotten itself into due to wasting money on consultants, ID cards and Georgie Bush’s wars, we’re now back to the habit of trashing Britain’s scientific base. Way to go lads, that’s the sort of thing you went into politics for, isn’t it?
In this case it is Jodrell Bank that is under threat:
http://education.guardian.co.uk/higher/news/story/0,,2262795,00.html
@88:
I’m suspicious of McCain, because his voting record and recent dalliances with the Discovery Institute make him so.
Nonetheless, it just goes to show that it’s not about actual age, it’s about the impression of frailty. Ming came across as a doddery, senile old grandad, McCain as a virile, militaristic war hero.
Not surprising one is considered more suitable than the other for leaders.
88 Surely Nick Clegg has proven age is irrelevant. You can make a pig’s ear of the leadership job however old you are!
seanT- you are a complex character myboy. I don’t get your fanaticism with the Euro thing, but probably linked into your obsessions/ addictions in other matters. You have a father complex the size of Canada, coupled with a very unhealthy dose of self loathing. My eldest friend reminds me very much of you.
I am very pleased for you personally that you are getting some success with your writing though.
You will still probably resemble the Jack Nicholson character at the end of Carnal Knowledge though, utterly corrupted by life. I cannot quite see you settling down and joining the church.
86. OK I’m off to watch The Tudors on DVD in a minute, but for a measure of the confusion of being a modern writer, see my book on Amazon Deutschland:
http://www.amazon.de/Millionen-Frauen-warten-auf-dich/dp/3833305169
This is the new paperback edition, with, as you can see, a very tasteful cover. I got all excited when I saw that they had “only 1 copy left”, (usually a sign a book is selling out on amazon), but then I checked the sales ranking: 1,014,487th
There are literally more than a million titles selling better than mine in Germany.
A million titles are waiting to outsell you!!
Hah!
So WTF? Why is there only 1 copy left? I can only presume amazon Germany ONLY ORDERED ONE COPY.
How humiliating is that?
On the other hand, my book was a question on the Weakest Link the other day. ‘Complete the title of Sean Thomas’s book: Millions of Women…’
Seriously. My mum rang me up (she’s an avid viewer) and was very excited that I had entered the lexicon of popular culture so successfully.
It’s a weird life. Ciaobella.
88 - “He could be dead before Nov 2008.”
Well any of us could be. A quick google shows that the chance of a typical white, American male of McCain’s age dying by the convention is about 1.25% according to a recent life table. Obviously McCain is anything but typical.
90 Maybe we can persuade Tom Knox to give Mike Smithson a copy of the magnum opus, which can then be the prize for the PB.com Presidential Election Competition?
66. It looks like its pretty well rated at Amazon and most reviewers say its a good laugh. I might order it, I could do with something to cheer me up, living in this forsakened socialist “paradise” of lies, cowardice, subterfuge and evasion.
The Genesis Secret is too hard to say, with all those Ss.
@John L/101
It sounds like a classic Tom Baker-era Who serial.
=> WIN
96. Oh god don’t say that!!!
Tyson you are not without insights.
The other day I was thinking of that film - and I thought, yes, that’s me one day, the Jack Nicholson character at the end of Carnal Knowledge. Kind of likeable, ish, and defiantly perky, but very jaded and slightly sad. And ultimately doomed.
Oh dear. Means it must be true. Confusing. But maybe all men of a certain libido and education level end up like that.
Good film, anyway.
101. You prefer The Jericho Vault? Hmm…. It is more poetic.
I gave it to my wife for Christmas. She has yet to forgive me, and has banned me from all future pb.com parties on the off-chance that Sean is there…
103 Are titles still in play? How about “The Devil’s Genome”? (Although it does risk being abbreviated to the Devil’s Gnome. Hey - there’s an idea….)
103 Sorry but “Genesis secret” is shit and sounds like a rip off of the DC or an expose of Phil Collins. The JV is better. But can’t you sex it up a bit.
Jericho waiting. (in homage to your previous book)
104. lol! Because I am so evil? Or because I might lead you astray into a world of erotic abandon? Or because I might force you to buy more copies?
93 See the fuller picture:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7274956.stm
Obviously these aren’t cuts (only Tories make “cuts”) just an alignment of resources to priorities. Note it’s an “£80m hole in finances”, so obviously these aren’t cuts (only Tories make “cuts”) just a re-alignment of resources due to poor budget management. Curiously similar to the recent Arts Council non-cuts.
Signs of harder times to come.
Here’s a rather clear photo of McCain’s cancer surgery scar…
http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20070301/capt.sge.bsy43.010307143446.photo00.photo.default-512×341.jpg
@SeanT/107:
I wasn’t aware that being led astray into erotic abandon was on the cards.
I’ll definitely be at the next PB.com party now…
110 Not if I have anything to do with it you won’t.
Sean. Humble doesn’t suit you. Any more of this self deprecation and I might mentally promote you to low division 2.
I suppose on that reckoning Jeffrey Archer would have to be Premier league top four. Surely not……
105. I quote from my publisher’s most recent email, to me, about titles:
“THE GENESIS SECRET works because it’s intriguing without being threatening, suggesting an ancient mystery and the idea that you as author know something the audience don’t know about the world (like DA VINCI CODE), and that if they read your book they might get to know something arcane and interesting too. THE JERICHO VAULT also does the ancient mystery thing, but adds the possibility of treasure into the mix.
Jericho means Biblical to people, and the fact that they might have seen it on TV too just adds to its weight rather than detracting from it. Familiarity is, in this area of the market, an advantage rather than a disadvantage.
The thriller audience wants a sense of excitement, but not too much: they want the idea they know what they’re getting — a damn good read along DA VINCI CODE lines, a bit of ancient mystery, some puzzles to solve, murders, chases, exotic locations, page-turning story; nothing too challenging or difficult, nothing that will alienate them. Therefore words like Lies, Hellfire, Slaying, Deceit, Heresy, Slaughter, Lucifer will be off-putting.”
I might add that my publisher at Harper really knows her stuff; she has published some of the most successful thrillers in Britain (and the world, for that matter) in the last decade.
So you see my problem. I don’t really adore The Genesis Secret but she quite likes it, and she knows this world better than me.
If anyone has a better idea please tell me! The Groucho lunch is still on offer. With champagne.
@111:
What, have you got some kind of protection racket going on for SeanT’s erotic abandon?
Re FL/MI
exploring the possibilities here…
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
“1. Status Quo. No delegates from Florida or Michigan.
2. The Credentials Committee seats one or both delegations as is. Totally within the rules. The Credentials Committee has the total power within the rules to seat or not seat any delegate as they choose, regardless of any previous DNC rules.
3. The Credentials Committee seats the delegates, but makes each delegate worth half a vote, essentially restoring the originally proposed 50% penalty. Totally within the rules.
4. The Credentials Committee seats the delegations, but makes sure they are split 50-50 between Obama and Clinton. Totally within the rules
5. Either state submits a new delegate selection plan to the DNC. It is approved, and new delegates are selected. Totally within the rules. (And Delaware supposedly did this in a previous election year).”
However, they also mention something that may make any FL/MI delegatation impossible: - the FL/MI reservations were cancelled and all the hotels in Denver are now fully booked up!!!
Seriously, Sean, I think “Jericho” is a bit off-putting. Yes, it’s Biblical, but it also has “road” connotations, and Middle East Crises generally. I have a frien who will not read any book that looks like it might be about Ireland - I suspect that Middle East Book refuseniks might be a bigger category.
Very slightly change, but you could go with Enigma rather than Secret. Or perhaps the Secret Testament. Little if any improvement, but tastes differ.
99 - and a collection of his anti-EU rants for whoever finishes last…
Do you think he could use Robert Harris’s words too? Then he might really have a best seller!
18 I was thinking of TWO copies of the book….
116, 117. It was originally called The Eden Secret. Maybe that is better than all of them.
Hm. Could be. Thanks - guys - for helping me think through this. I’m serious. It’s very helpful and useful to have some varying and intelligent opinions.
114. lol. Erotic abandon isn’t that good, anyway.
New Pennsylvania numbers from Rasmussen (poll taken March 5, changes from Feb 26):
Clinton 52 (+6) Obama 37 (-5)
Their national tracker is the same as yesterday Clinton 48 Obama 43
She is not quite dead yet …
119. Referred to 117.
113 - on that basis, maybe “The Eden Conspiracy”?
Legacy of Lies? (Vaguely recalling the genetic component to the storyline).
Sean - Could you get the word Compass into the title ? Benefits are
)
i) Connotations of exploration and adventure
ii) Connotations of freemasonary
iii) Potential weapon for the villain (reliving schooldays
“Millions of women are reading this book instead of waiting for you”
Sean, is the title format “The Something Something” sacrosanct? How about a different format, such as “The Thing and the Other Thing”. What I mean is “The Road and the Vault” or “The Secret and the Tomb” or whatever. Two distinct objects in the one title, not one ambiguous object. Obviously, though, you must bow to the authority of your publisher - she knows her stuff.
If your last book puts you in the lower first division where would Matt Beaumont’s autobiographical novel ‘E’s’ put him?
Also - for those with an interest in down-ballot races there is a special election on Saturday to fill the seat vacated by Denis Hastert, the former Republican Speaker of the House. It is a GOP-leaning seat (Illinois-14) which gave Bush 57% in 2004, but it looks like the Dems may take it.
There is a SUSA poll that shows the Democrat leading by 7 points. Obama has done an ad endorsing the Democrat, and the NRCC have spent $1.2m on the race despite only having $6.4m in the bank. If the Dems take the seat it augurs well for them expanding their majority in November. The NRCC is in chaos, being outraised and under a fraud investigation. There are rumors that the chair of the committee may be forced to resign of they lose. This will further damage recruitment and fundraising efforts for the GOP.
129. Is that the one about the ad agency? I heard it was very funny and rather good. But literary fiction doesn’t sell that well, and I think his follow-ups did nowhere near the same business.
He is probably midtable Championship first division, a few places above me. But he has bad away form, a crop of injuries, and is maybe looking at possible relegation if he isn’t careful.
It’s a tough old game.
Do you know him? My ex worked in advertising and loved that book.
O/T - The government has launched a guide to public conveniences. Multiple opportunities for ‘toilet’ humour methinks.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7281125.stm
131: OMG. My wife worked in advertising and loved that book. Promise me you never dated her.
From my research there is about a 12% chance of a person with his age and medical history dying after four years given average medical care (the actuarial tables would make give the chances much less). However, given that as President he would have surperb medical care, the fact that his job is intellectually stimulating and his family’s history of longevity I would say that all the smears abot him dying in office are way overhyped. Most medical professionals say that the biggest killer of the 70+ is boredom and that those who work and/or keep active will live longer.
New Pennslyvania Predictions. Clinton ahead.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/06/hillarys-lead-in-pennslyvania-widens-to-1420/
105 & 113
Three days ago my suggested titles were “The Lucifer Genome” and The Genesis Matrix” iirc the first time ‘Genome’ and ‘Genesis’ were mentioned, not a titter from either of you, bloody plagiarism, that’s what that is…!
Mine you, I also asked if ‘second prize’ was two evenings at the Groucho with SeanT, so all’s fair.
132, reminds me of this little guide:
1. Open the door. This is to gain entry to the bathroom.
2. Close the door. This prevents people seeing into the bathroom.
3. Select the applicable equipment for your required activity. I recommend the toilet for defecation, the urinal for urinating, and the sink for washing hands, but the choice is yours.
4. Commence having a dump, pissing, or washing your hands.
5. Flush or rinse your hands as required.
6. If a further action is necessary see 3. If not, see 7.
7. Dry your hands. It is customary to use a paper towel provided free of charge. It is not recommended that you leave with wet hands, or that you attempt to dry them on other things, such as the clothing of another person.
8. Do 1. and 2. again, but this time leave the bathroom instead of entering it.
9. Congratulate yourself on a job well done.
131.
The Exodus Resolution?
Jericho Vault would appeal to gymnasts!
129. Indeed here is his latest novel. Launched just six weeks ago and languishing at 54,000th on amazon already:
http://tinyurl.com/2s8z4r
That ain’t good. And just two reader reviews. But I’m not knocking him, my third and first novels probably sold worse (and I’ve only written three).
Most novels sell amazingly badly. You can count yourself a bestseller if you barely break five figures. It’s a mug’s game, writing, and literary fiction sells especially badly (though not as badly as travel, or poetry). You just hope for that one title that kicks up a fuss. Which is all that you are likely to get. Very very few literary writers have the consistent sales of a McEwan.
Henry James never wrote a bestseller. Or even a particularly goodseller.
On the other hand writing is hugely fulfilling, you can get up at noon, you get a hefty amount of respect merely for doing it, and if you combine it with journalism you get to see the world, in luxury, for free.
Could be worse.
Sorry if I am talking to myself here. Feeling ruminative.
133. Seems unlikely. Unless your wife gave birth to my first daughter about two years ago. Did yr better half disappear for a few months back in 2006?
If so, we have a problem.
120 the runner up prize should be 2 copies, wooden spoon requires maximum punishment
134 “From my research there is about a 12% chance of a person with his age and medical history dying after four years given average medical care …”
Sounds fascinating, Matthew. Nothing in what you’ve posted to date has suggested a familiarity with even the rudiments of probability and statistics — so I’d be interested to see the details of the “research”.
131. Yes. What Job did your ex do-creative or on the account side?
Interestingly ‘Carnal Knowledge’ was directed by Mike Nicols who has just done ‘Charlie Wilson’s War. He also directed some classics of the 60’s like Catch 22 The Graduate and Who’s afraid of Virginia Woolf and then spent the next load of years without ever hitting those highs again and then last year nearly 40 years after the Graduate came ‘Closer’. Which I though was really well done.
141 - Is there a need for the gratuitous rudeness?
135 Sorry about inadvertently retreading your old ground - so difficult to keep up with the rejections….
About those Republicans:
Spain have dropped their extradition case against Jamil el-Banna, 45, and Omar Deghayes, 38, released after five years in Guantanamo.
“According to the judge’s order, two British doctors, Derek Fluxman and Helen Bamber, examined the pair at Harrow health centre in February and diagnosed serious medical conditions caused by torture at the hands of their captors and the inhumane conditions in which they were kept for five years.”
and Spain doesn’t come out of it very well either.
http://tinyurl.com/2add89
93,108 STFC is not the only science research council, but it is the only one facing such problems. It might be legitimate to inquire if it is well-run, and if the projects that it supports are well-run.
Clue: the project at Jodrell Bank referred to in the newspaper articles is a number of years behind schedule.
What’s going on with ID cards?
Government seemed to have picked the worst of all worlds:
Ineffectual at reducing terror/crime as not everyone will carry one and criminals will opt out.
Still tread on civil liberties as the centralised database of all citizens information will still be in place.
Oh well, what the hell.
142….cont ……….And I meant to say maybe there is a moral there for Matt beaumont. It was such a particular book and was so close to reality that he probably only has that one book in him. I know many who work in ad agencies who were pissed off that he thought of it first.
148. Although saying that, obviously a centralised database can be used to track and capture criminals. So perhaps not completely ineffectual.
148, never underestimate the Supreme Leader’s powers of incompetence.
Jacqui Kebabs said today that it was unhackable because it won’t be online.
….
If she were any denser she’d spontaneously turn into uranium.
143. Was he being rude? I must be losing my antennai(?)! Matthew Partridge was again the most accurate poster on the US elections. I’ve looked at his site twice and both times he was spot on.
149 It’s good that we celebrate World Book Day on Pb.com with critiques, searching and deep analysis of the place of an author and “a find a title” competition.
30.
“This is what compassionate Conservatism is all about - caring for the sick, the depr(i)aved, the hopeless people in our society.”
Surely the Conservative parlimentary party has friends and family to do all that?
New thread - Did Hillary ad darken Obama’s skin?
Looking around at the bookshelves, it seems there are two classes of book. Those where the title is the most important thing, and others where the author’s name takes up most of the space.
As this is Knox’s first thriller, the title needs to be in big letters, and that means it has to be fairly short.
Hmm. I’ve just noticed a third class where the character gets top billing, like Rumpole and Harry Potter.
131.
The Jonah Derivative….
132
Does the government include instructions on ho