How can McCain deal with the Bush linkage?
March 7th, 2008Just over a fortnight ago I suggested that the picture of John McCain being hugged by George Bush might come to haunt him. Well within two days of him securing the GOP nomination it is already starting.
Above is Democratic party general election ad seeking to get over the close links between Bush and McCain. The closing sequence is that hugging picture.
The linkage with Bush that his opponents are trying to establish will be one of the key determinants in the November campaign.
On the winning party market the Republicans are at 1.78/1 with 1.9/1 on offer on McCain being president.
Sean Fear’s Friday Slot I am away from my computer for the rest of the day seeing my new grandchild. As a result I will not be able to put Sean Fear’s piece up this afternoon.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Breaking News:
Puerto Rico swaps its caucuses for a primary, and shifts it date to 1st June…
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
What is going on? Will the deck be shuffled again?
Congratulations Mike! Have fun with your new grandchild.
Tories have just released the election Manifesto
Diamond White will be 32 p more
White Lighting will be 53p more
Tennets Super will be 33 p more
Tennets Extra will be 45 p more
Leffe Lager will be 47p more
Thunderbird will be £1.26 p more
Caffreys will be 24 p more
VK Ice will be 78 p more
VK Cherry will be 76 p more
Smirnoff Ice will be 89p more
…….Carry on to Ad Nauseaum
Sorry to echo everyone else, but here’s my congratulations on the newest member of the Smithson family.
Puerto Rico: owned by New York City, which is also owned by the Clintons.
Nuff said.
National Public Radio here this morning continued with the nonsense that Clinton has won Texas. The Texas Democratic Party have indidcated that Obama will finish with the larger number of pledged delegates; but I guess that doesn’t fit with the MSM story line of a brave woman fighting back.
The Clintons are a piece of sh*t, and this from an avowed old-fashioned leftie.
Malcolm
Mike - great news. Will all of this fame mean that you are likely to end up in the Smithsonian some time?
1. Updated sheet..
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Democrats.xls
This is quite serious if any others follow suit, don’t you think?
Yup we saw the McSame ad yesterday on You Tube and I said exactly the same thing when Bush endorsed McCain this will do immense damage to him - and Bush wants to campaign for him also - what will voters think when they have the choice between Hillary/Barack or McCain/Bush … do we really want 4 more years of the same crap we have had for the last 8 years ….
Another month of job losses in the US. Recession now more or less confirmed…UK to follow in about 4-5 months.
With economic sentiment in the polls already at near all time lows, it’s curtains for Labour. Unemployment, repossessions and a squeeze on public spending all coming.
Whohahahahha if only Brown hadn’t bottled it. Balls was right…
8
If you were a (thinking as opposed to tribal) American voter and had a choice of:
more of the same from HRClinton
or
More of the same from McCain
Whom would you choose?
Lord Pym dead
This is one reason why I have always been sceptical about the hypothetical match-up polls in recent weeks. McCain has plenty more of this to come (although rather less than he may have feared as the Democrat contest rolls on) and it will hurt him a lot.
8 Only works if McCain endorses same policies and direction as Bush - otherwise it’s just like the Demon Eyes Blair poster, what the Democrats want to believe, not what the voters perceive. Straight talking, non draft dodger with record of collaboration with political opponents can reach independents but offers real experience (wasn’t just married to someone but did the job), security. Bush is a problem but not necessarily an insurmountable one.
Congratulations to you and your family Mike
re 323 last thread
but Nick how is the finger print database going to work as your Home Secretary was telling all and sundry yesterday that the database is not going to br online. Or was she lying?
Also Augustus above has completely rubbished your argument that you’ll be able to do away with utility bills - that ain’t true either. If I were you I’d stop digging.
O/T Only on PB.com dare I ask for help with this one:
I want to compile a Top 10 (or Top 5) of the LOWEST winning shares of the vote in ENGLISH parliamentary elections since Second World War (or, perhaps, 1970). Where to start?
[8] - Sure, but then Democrats thought Bush was a vote-loser in 2000 and again in 2004. Those elections were really good for the Democrats.
Also, if the Democrats go too hard on the “McCain is the same as Bush” line, they risk looking like partisans fighting yesterday’s battles, unconcerned with the challenges that America faces today, etc, etc, and McCain can point to the obvious fact that he is not Bush, thus making the Democrats look like idiots.
To be a little contrarion but does Bush help? It will certainly be a means of uniting the Conservative coalition. Plus if the combined anti-Bush forces couldn’t take the real Bush down four years ago then surely the fact that the Republican candidate is not in the Bush mould makes it harder to make that stick this time.
11 I met Lord Pym once, when I was a cllow youth; he seemd a thoroughly decent man and clearly out of his comfort zone in the radical environment of Mrs T’s cabinet.
16 - When you say ENGLISH parliamentary elections can you be a bit more precise - as francis so keen to remind us, there is no such thing as an English Parliament. Do you mean GB (ie ex NI) seats for Westminster, or strictly English seats for Westminster. The latter would mean you couldn’t get the famous Inverness 4-way tie (won on less than 30% of the vote if I remember correctly)…
16 - Do you mean nationally or in individual constituencies? If you mean nationally (ie how much ‘popular vote’ each party had) then Wikipedia has that.
Could someone better informed than me comment? My perception is that a primary is better for Hillary than a caucus? Is this what prompted it?
13 - But the Demon Eyes poster referred back 18 years to the last Labour government or at least ten years to a far less palatable Labour Party. The Democrat ads refer to a man who is actually nominally still in charge. The Conservative party did very nicely thank you attacking the last Labour government for 13 years after it had left office, but it had just run out of steam by 1997. Likewise after ten years, Labour’s attacks on the Major government are looking a bit weary.
17 - No they didn’t. The Dems attacked Bush in 2000 and 2004 because they had little choice given he was their opponent. They did it to undermine people’s liking for the man, not because he was wildly personally unpopular - which he is now on all measures.
This line of attack has been adapted against Hilary as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjQLE2YFdeE
Wasn’t it Pym who was criticised and subsequently sacked from the Thatcher govt after remarking that landslide election wins (1983) usually led to bad government…..
16. For post-war by-elections, look here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Lowest_winning_share_of_the_vote
There is another list for GEs that I have compiled since 1918, but there are a couple of others I have not yet added… Your query will spur me to complete the task.
1 Sir D.R. Johnston (Highland, Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber,
L Dem, 1992) 26.05
2 F.J. Privett (Portsmouth, Central, C, 1922) 26.82
3 J. McQuade (Belfast, North, UDUP, 1979) 27.61
4 C.W. Crook (East Ham, North, C, 1922) 29.74
5 H.G. Strauss (Comined English Universities, C, 1946(13-18/3)) 29.98
6 Rev. R.T.W. McCrea (Mid-Ulster, UDUP, 1983) 30.02
7 Mrs. M.A. Bain (Dunbartonshire, East, SNP, 1974(O)) 31.20
8 C.G. Dafis (Dyfed, Ceredigion and Pembroke North, PC, 1992) 31.29
9 P.D. Robinson (Belfast, East, UDUP, 1979) 31.37
10 J.S. Holmes (Derbyshire, North-Eastern, L, 1918) 31.43
11 Dr. R.G. Thomas (Dyfed, Carmarthen, Lab, 1983) 31.57
12 W. Waring (Berwickshire and Haddingtonshire, NL, 1922) 31.86
13 D.R. Johnston (Inverness-shire and Ross and Cromarty, Inverness,
L, 1974(O)) 32.39
14 E.T. Campbell (Bromley, C, 1930(2/9)) 32.46
15 Sir G.P. Collins (Greenock, L, 1929) 32.52
16 J.D. Cunningham (Coventry, South East, Lab, 1992) 32.58
17 Mrs. A.A. McCurley (Strathclyde, Renfrew West and Inverclyde, C,
1983) 32.69
18 G. Machin (Dundee, East, Lab, 1973(1/3)) 32.74
19 D.A. Price-White (Caernarvon District of Boroughs, C, 1945) 32.93
20 J. Hepworth (Bradford, East, C, 1935) 32.98
21 J.H.N. Gray (Inverness-shire and Ross and Cromarty, Ross and
Cromarty, C, 1970) 33.21
22 J.T.W. Newbold (Lanarkshire, Motherwell, Com, 1922) 33.31
Congratulations Mike - watching your baby pb.com reaching maturity - and now another baby…
McCain has to do this, but surely he is well enough known as a maverick for this to have limited effect with the middle ground. But the other side of the coin is Obama’s very liberal voting record. This election is going to carry on being wonderful viewing, with whoever wins being a good choice IMO.
1. Previously I was under the impression that Puerto Rico would have been a winner takes all caucus and that HRC would win. Now it seems it will be a primary with delegates awarded proportionally. So this makes it yet more difficult for Hillary to even get close in pledged delegates.
22. yes
- as far as I can see if she gets the nomination from here there will be a lot of blood spilt….which will probably effect her November chances.
Bu**sh** is at 30% in the polls so it really has to be a democratic year. But this battle between BO and HC could be the biggest present McCain gets. The only downside for McCain is that he is rather sidelined by the fun on the other side…
Surely Bush recognises he is toxic and McCain would be better to keep his distance. So why the hugging? Can Bush not help himself?
25.Yes, that comment was made in on QT, IIRC he was gone the next day after Mrs Thatcher made it clear she would quite like a big majority?
re well he’s been proved wonderfully right for the last 10 years on that.
22, 28 - the rules say all states and territories have to be proportional; but the tradition in Puerto Rico’s caucus would be that strings to pull to ensure that votes were cast in the way that give the winner all the delegates. There’s no way of fixing a true primary like that within the rules… and I think the switch from caucus to primary is a recognition that in a close race, the kind of thing that has gone on before cannot be got away with this time.
So as Shadsy says, even if Hillary wins majority support in PR, she can’t rely on getting all the delegates now.
26.Plenty of Scottish constituencies in there.
I hope the Tories have thought about “proper” cider. some of the good stuff like westons organic and old rosie is 6.5% to 7.5%. If i have to take a tax hike on premium stuff because of kids on park benches on white lightening then I’ll be cross. Not that i was going to vote for them anyway but i might send a stiff letter to camera.
16 - there’s a list back to 1918 here:
http://www.election.demon.co.uk/marginal.html
36 - ignore me, that’s majority, not vote share which is what you’re looking for. Aplogies.
35. Should be an exemption there indeed. In fact wouldn’t it be great if we could go back to the situation in the earluy 1970s when trad cider was a good deal cheaper than beer thanks to favourable excise treatment.
Perhaps a low duty rate for smaller cider makers using old fashioned methods would do the trick.
38. There are a couple of pubs in the Wye valley that only sell strong local cider. I’m not sure if that’s a licensing thing though.
22) Puerto Rico can’t handle a caucus during a tight battle that we may have then - they are not set-up to mimic the sort of chaos Texas had to handle.
The difference to Obama is marginal - a 10% difference perhaps?
Remember we were at one point braced for a 100% Hillary delegate count in PR. Not sure why you are that worried Rod?
30 - Firstly, nobody likes to accept they are toxic and Bush no doubt believes he still has it. Secondly, on a psychological level, a lot of politicians like to see their successors fail. Thatcher in many ways enjoyed Major’s slow fall, Clinton was never 100% with Gore, and the less said about Blair and Brown…
35 - Almost certainly not. Bleak news indeed for the Corry Tap in Brizzle which refuses to sell their brews in pint glasses for fear of killing the customer base! Some in Camra may have slightly mixed feelings on this as it is quite good news for some real ale (which is relatively weak). But the organisation has a strong traditional cider-loving wing and they will win the day I should imagine.
No 9 said
Another month of job losses in the US. Recession now more or less confirmed…UK to follow in about 4-5 months.
With economic sentiment in the polls already at near all time lows, it’s curtains for Labour. Unemployment, repossessions and a squeeze on public spending all coming.
Whohahahahha if only Brown hadn’t bottled it. Balls was right…
by Dr Death March 7th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
This is why the Tories will not get into power.
You actually relish the idea of a recession. Seeing people on the dole gives you pleasure. You are wishing for a down turn to aid your political ambitions..
HOW SICK AND NASTY IS THAT
Just to repeat my comments to Mr Palmer:
“Currently, 62% say they favour [ID cards], exactly double the number who plan to vote Labour.”
Nothing like the 80% in support the government made a big deal about just a couple of years ago, and plenty of recent polls have indicated narrow majorities against.
Wonder how many of that 62% will be happy to fork out £30 and spend hours travelling to and waiting in an interrogation centre? Wonder how many realise they could be fined £1000 for losing or damaging their card, or for forgetting to tell the police they moved house? How many supporters realise that the government’s budget for the scheme does not include the cost of installing fingerprint scanners inside every bank, chemist, doctor’s surgery, hospital, police station, post office and travel agent in the country?
“You’ll still be free to refuse to have it.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Labour’s ultimate aim is for compulsion, full stop, so cease your weasel words.
You want my fingerprints, Mr Palmer? You want to force me to notify the police every time I move house? Fingerprinting is what you do to common criminals, and only registered sex offenders have to continually tell the authorities their location. You want that information off me, don’t expect me to surrender it voluntarily!
I live in a Conservative/Labour marginal — roll on the next election!
26. Some more under under 35%
2005.
Ochil & South Perthshire, G.R. Banks (Lab) 31.36%
Edinburgh South, N. Griifiths (Lab) 33.23%
Watford, C.M. Ward (Lab) 33.56%
Angus, M.F. Weir (SNP) 33.66%
Perth & North Perthshire, P. Wishart (SNP) 33.68%
Edinburgh N & Leith, M.J. Lazarowicz (Lab) 34.23%
Ynys Mon, A. Owen (Lab) 34.62%
Falmouth & Camborne, J.A. Goldworthy (LD) 34.88%
I have noticed this phenomenon recently in Tory Forums. Lots of Hillary or Obama Bashing. Has Andy Caulson been advising you all.
Frightened are you. David Cameron has publicly backed Mc Cain for president. Something Tories have been trying to keep under raps.
Obama or Hillary would make a great president. This fact has you all petrified.
Obama or Hillary at a Labour conference in 2008 or 2009. You could only muster up a republican in his 70’s, older than Ming.
Claim Blair to be a poodle, but the Tories are very much up the backsides of the Reps, and are terrified that a Dem will be the next president, hence all the negative garbage in these bloggs. …YAWN
I suggest that what you are referring to is the ‘link’ to Bush, not ‘linkage’ [n. The condition or manner of being linked; a system of links . . OED].
42. Whoahhahahahahhahaha - dole queues, poverty, famine….love ‘em.
re 43 well said, but you forgot scanners in council offices as well because of course the government will let every council jobsworth snoop on your personal data as well.
45. Oh look - another educationally challenged Labour astroturfer has joined us.
45 - “Obama or Hillary at a Labour conference in 2008 or 2009″
It is utterly absurd to suggest that a US President in his/her first year of office would go to ANY foreign party conference and even more absurd for a presidential candidate six weeks out from an election.
McCain went to the Tory conference (or did he do it via satellite in the end?) in return for a fat fee, way ahead of the election.
There are many reasons to criticize the Tories, but the price of beer in Conny Clubs has always been very reasonable.
Perhaps they will reduce the duty on drinks like mild and Manns Brown, which are not consumed by binging teenagers.
re 339 previous thread. No the government’s preferred rate is only 2% when they’re talking about pay rises for public sector workers. I noticed that strange discrepancy as well and wondered why no-one’s making a bigger fuss about it.
McCain (72 years old) v Obama (46 years old) would be a difference of 26 years - Has there been a larger age gap in recent US/UK elections?
Apart from the 1983 UK election Thatcher (88) Foot (130+)…sic
51. I understand the idea behind the Conservative proposals and if the LD’s had proposed it doubtless we’d call it “polluters pays”. I’m just anxious that high strenth real ale/cider doesn’t get caught in the cross fire. Doubtless i’m defending middle class priveledge angainst the oinks but we should be really challenging the ASB rather than the alcohol.
If we are going to use the tax route slap a massive (and ring fenced ) levy on S2 centre super pubs over a certain size. thats where most of the problems come from.
51 - I trust Osborne will issue an edict insisting they whack up the charges to a fiver a drink fortwith. You dare not pass within 20 yards of the Norwester Club on a Friday night for fear of a flying schooner of Madeira hitting the back of your head.
54
The problem is the proposed tax increases are not big enough to work. 30p on a bottle will not have much effect.
Being caught drinking and getting your local offlicence closed down for selling to underage drinkers would have more effect ..
53 - Can’t think of one, but the age gap was pretty sizeable in both 1992 (22 years between Bush and Clinton) and 1996 (23 years between Clinton and Dole).
45 Cameron actually had good words for McCain & Obama - it was Hilary he missed out.
O/T just read that Ken Livingstone raise £233,000 the other night from an arts auction including work from Banksy who is supporting his campaign. Apparently this is a quarter of the permissable spend for the election. Time to back Ken.
http://maguire.mirror.co.uk/2008/03/luvvies-for-livingstone.html
53. It’s a difference of 25 years (less a few days), and Obama will be 47 by election day. That’s the largest age gap ever, beating the previous record of Clinton-Dole in 1996 (23 years)
If Clinton was somehow to be the Democratic nominee, it would be the oldest combined age of candidates, at 133 years, beating the Zachary Taylor/Lewis Cass matchup of 1848…
56 - I don’t think that’s the problem. The problem is that there is no way of distinguishing a tax on binge drinkers from a tax on all drinkers. Anything that hurts binge drinkers in the pocket will have a huge impact on people making a perfectly legitimate decision to have a quiet pint or three. Why penalise people and reduce the number of very pleasant sociable evenings that go on all the time at pubs up and down the land?
Contrast taxes on pollution where (very roughly) the marginal cost of each unit of fossil fuel used is the same whether you are a “binge” user or not.
59 - Hardly. With the weight of the CCHQ machine discreetly behind him, Boris is not going to have a problem with fundraising.
61. How about charging for drink-related treatment on the NHS, at a penal rate, plus automatic custodial sentences for drunken fighting. Plus fines of ten times the value of any criminal damage caused. And…
59 - So he is raising money, which will help him to market a message. However I think election spending is only effective if you are selling a message that people are buying. Ken’s problem is that he hasn’t settled on a message and the public are therefore not too keen on buying into him again.
56/61 membership of AA might help with this bollocks about binge drinking.
62 - And with Elton John and friends backing Brian Paddick’s campaign… you won’t be able to open your front door for the piles of literature on the doormat come late April!
44.The joys of four party politics in Scotland, it will make it very hard to predict the results in some seats at the next GE. I keep saying that we might see some surprising results for all parties.
Thanks to all of you for the best wishes on my daughter’s baby. She’s in St Thomas’s - just across the Thames from Parliament.
60. The largest in the 20th Century in the UK was 1987, Thatcher/Kinnock, a 16.5 year gap
69 - Presumably we are referring only to Labour/Tory age gaps. Kennedy was 18 years younger than Howard in 2005 (and still is, coincidentally enough…)
59. I don’t think Boris will have oo much trouble raising the million quid
Just read this on the BBC’s obituary for Francis Pym
“Early in the war, after just a year at university, he joined the Army with the 9th Lancers, fought in tanks at Alamein, and was awarded the Military Cross in Italy.
Later he became a trainee manager in a department store, ran a milk-distributing business, and then joined a firm in Hereford that made tents and tarpaulins for agricultural shows.”
Compare that as an early career to the CV’s of most politicians today (both sides of the House) - and it is not hard to see why the current careerist politico hacks engender so little public respect.
I’ve done night shifts with the police in a big city centre and shifts in a CCTV control system. the situation is too far gone and too profitable for too many people. You could close just about every super pub in my town over night for 48 hours unde the existing legislation. the disorder is there but despite the pontificating there is no political will to do it. My concern is that using the tax route just penalises law abiding people who are enjoying a drink.
59
Until he starts to answer some of the allegations of corruption instead of just smearing everyone that raises them,it just looks like he’s got something to hide.
Having an Ad campaign telling us what a great job he has done isn’t going to wash.
70 “Kennedy was 18 years younger than Howard in 2005 (and still is, coincidentally enough…)”
Are you so sure? Does the Undead Howard really age?
Preliminary national predictions based on likely voters gives McCain a lead over both Hillary and Obama.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/07/peliminary-national-matchups/
63
Offenders put on pink overalls and sweep the high street on a saturday afternoon?
It strikes me that the politicians are firing at the wrong target. At a time when several pubs a week are closing as a result of ever increasing costs- with significant social damage in our rural areas- increasing pub prices across the board is probably the wrong thing to do. About half of the turnover of an average pub is taxation already. I do see a late night alcohol problem in our market towns and cities but just targeting the binge drink culture with price is possibly going to do more harm than good.
I’m an unusual liberal in that I would make offenders wear overalls and clean stuff up. Prision is an expensive disaster for most people but we will never sell community punishments while they lack all credibility. I also don’t see the problem with shame. I’d much rather reinvent a cultural constraint like shame and public humiliation that reply on this constant onslaught of tin pot ASB leglislation which is never enforced.
45,
Qwery - I wasn’t aware that Cameron had actively endorsed anyone. Could you provide a link?
I have, of course, read the Telegraph article where he praised both McCain and Obama, but that was a long way short of an endorsement.
Peculiarly, you seem to believe that online Tories dislike Obama. This must make seanT (for example) a Labour supporter or secret Lib Dem, I suppose
I’m an Obamafan and a Tory, and I’ve noticed many others such on here. Clinton-bashing I’ve noticed from all sides of the spectrum as well. Are you sure you’re not just seeing what you want to see?
70. Brown/Cameron will be almost 16 years diffrence…
76, Matthew,
Have you seen the state-by-state SurveyUSA polls discussed on the last thread?
Rather interesting, for all their limitations (very long way out, no knowledge of running mate, sample size 600-odd per state gives a 4% MoE).
Baskerville (last thread) “The Boulton Blog at Sky News reports that Fay Weldon’s new book is called ‘The Spa Decameron’”
I think you’ve unlocked a mystery! I was recently having lunch in Groucho’s and at the ajoining table was Fay Weldon and Kazno Ishiguro (’Remains of the Day’ etc). She must have asked for suggestions for a title for her new book and Ishiguro’s must have come up with ‘The Spa Decameron’ and won the literary prize de jour. ‘A Champagne lunch at Groucho’s’!!
76, 82,
Never mind Matthew - just gone over to your blog and found a post on it. So that’d be a “yes”
Too many Creatures on here today.
GO AWAY.
79
It would be surely worth a try,as nothing else has worked so far and the problem is getting worse.
66. Elton John is famous for wasting vast sums of money, isn’t he? It seems nothing changes.
77. We should make them lick the streets clean
Two new Mississipi polls, both with Obama leads
Insider Advantage -
Obama 46% .. Clinton 40%
ARG -
Obama 58% .. Clinton 34%
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
73 61
my point in 56 was that if the will exists it can be made expensive for puns/ other alcohol sllers to sell to either underage drinkers or people already drunk.
I’m surprised the Local Authorities do not make more fuss. As I understand the current law, the Local Police have to present a case: lawlessnes due to excess drinking in a pub - and magistrates could take action.
But I suspect the mechanisms are complex and prone to legal challenge.
Raising taxes on alcohol will just encourage more white van trips to France: I understand in some areas up to 30% of alcohol consume ddoes not pay UK taxes as it is imported for “personal use”.
If the Conservatives were serious about empowering Local Communities - which I do not believe until there are specific and workable plans - the obvious thing is to give Local Magistrates power to withdraw licenses from any outley deemed to cause problems.
This would localise the solution to specifically fit local needs and not penalise serious and peaceful drinkers.
I doubt it will happpen. Whitehall knows best applies to all parties: on cause I believe of us electors contempt for MPs and Parliament.
(Is contempt too strong? I like our local MP as an MP: but as a member of a Government which she slavishly votes for, I have contempt. Perhaps I should say contempt for what our Parliamentary system has become - an elected autocracy. Pym was right. Big majorities are bad. )
89
Apologies for typing and grammar.
Two Rasmussen polls for any potential re-run contests in Michigan and Florida :
Michigan -
Obama 41% .. Clinton 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_democratic_presidential_primary
Florida -
Obama 39% .. Clinton 55%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_democratic_primary
It still feels close to me, well closer than the betfair odds anyway.
A new Grandchild? congratulations. I hope it doesn’t make you feel older than you feel!
Age gaps between leaders… in 1983 there were I think 24 years between Steel and Foot. Steel however was not prime minister designate - the rather older Woy was.
Congratulations on the grandchild, Mike. A future liberal?
59. “Time to back Ken”
I would think twice before betting against him. I look forward to the start of his campaign. I’m hoping it’ll be suprising. A lot of the best ad men around are still behind him.
At the risk of three posts in a row…
Tory proposals on alcohol look sensible. Mainly because I do not drink the affected drinks.
96 His supporters should have been campaigning on the ground since the start of the year, but there’s no sign that they are doing so.
Does anyone know if any of the ID card polls have asked people what they think of the scheme after they tell them the reality of it which is that you will have to take a day off work (in your own time), and travel perhaps up to 100 miles (at your own expense), to queue up (perhaps for hours) at some government interrogation centre to be finger-printed like a common criminal?
How many of the public really are aware of the reality of this.
Repeated from the previous thread since it asks Mike a question relating to his current GE seats position:
I shall continue trading GE seasts on Spreadfair by selling the Tories in the low 300’s and aiming to close at or around 8-10 points lower. At present, I’m showing a sale of £30 per Tory seat at an average price of 304 seats. I appreciate this is relatively small beer, but such a strategy has produced consistent profits over the past few months and I consider the downside very small since, at these levels, it would require the Tories to gain around 100 seasts on their 2005 showing, +/- boundary changes - I just don’t see it happening, even were Brown to remain PM.
If and when the Tories move up to a consistent 43%-45% showing in the polls, I might then consider altering my strategy.
May we ask, please, what the current Smithson position is as regards GE seats betting? I share his frustration as regards Spreadfair’s tightening credit restrictions, but I don’t relish, in future, being forced to accept Sporting’s and IG’s 6 point spread on Tory and Labour GE seats bets and I recall Mike saying recently that he traded approx 60% of bets in this his favourite market through Spreadfair - but, judging by his comments, apparently no longer.
I don’t think we haver yet had enough experience of personality-led regional elections such as the one for the London mayoralty, but I would suggest that it would be impractical to fight the standard 3-4 week local government election-style campaign. Ken has been on the back foot since Christmas, Boris is making more of a showing and (surprisingly) Brian Paddick is getting some good (i.e. non hostile) press. I think Ken may already have left it too late.
My Council ward has horrific alcohol related disorder problems from super pubs. I’ve given up trying to represent residents as its just pointless.
1. planning law favours alcohol sales. the recent splitting of the use classes order is ok but not enough.
2. police don’t care as its not a government target. won’t change till we get directly elected commissioners. another liberal heresy of mine.
3. the legislation we do have like alcohol disoder zones and CIP’s only kicks in after problems have got out of hand as you have to prove existing harm.
4. there has been complete intellectual capitualation towards the view that all food and drink uses are regenerative. same with super casinos.
5. cultural norms are shot to pieces. for lots of people disorder is normal, acceptable behaviour. nothing a governemnt can do about that in less than 20 years.
I’m sorry to sound like the daily mail. I’m off to cut up my Lib Dem membership card and join UKIP.
97.”Tory proposals on alcohol look sensible. Mainly because I do not drink the affected drinks.”
I think that Osborne is hoping that a great deal of the voting public out there echo that sentiment.
103 - I think one of the biggest causes of teenage drinking is budget vodka in supermarkets.
I would favour a minimum price for drinks of certain prices. There is less tax on a cheap bottle of vodka than on a decent bottle of whisky as the VAT is much less.
I would be happy for this balance to be redressed. Across the board increases in duty on spirits are not the answer.
Why are the Texas Democratic caucus results only 41% complete(CNN Election Center)?
Have they come to a stop because Obama has actually WON Texas (pledged delegates) ??? I believe the Clinton’s would stop at nothing and are probably behind this!
If Obama had lost 11 contests in a row and fared as Clinton on Tuesday I cannot envisage the same media hysteria over a comeback. Surely this is as good as over..
BBC reporting that “Obama aide quits in ‘monster’ row”, I saw the Scotsman front page last night and thought WOW!
Final word on alcohol - “happy hours” especially on cocktails are a vomit inducing scourge. What can be done about pubs that turn the “music” up so LOUD that all you can do is drink.
When I were a lad of 16 or 17, we did go to the pub, had a few pints and chatted civilly. You can’t do that in town centre pubs now. And the journey home was safe and quiet, not scary. Why have things changed in 20 years?
Oh god, a debate on alcopops.
Guys, I have to be honest with you, but I’m thinking of emigrating. Just the whole idea of a serious debate on “alcopops” makes me want to lie down and sob.
What has happened to my country? I DON’T LOVE IT ANYMORE.
I used to love Britain. Her history of noble defiance, her magnificent - truly magnificent - cultural inheritance. The sense of liberty and democracy written into her DNA. The landscapes and cityscapes immortalised by so many brilliant artists. The pageant of imperial conquest, which I am happy to hymn. And most of all the English language, the greatest means of communication devised my mankind: born of English soil, formed by English minds.
All this used to make up for the shite weather, and the crap boring towns, and the suburban mediocrity, and the twats who governed us.
But now the twats who govern us have gone a step too far. We are no longer ruled by the desperately average - we are ruled by actual traitors. Insectoidal scumbags. Lefties and Lib Dems who think it is OK - indeed funny - to trash 1000 years of democratic advance just to get their way.
Oh Lord how I despise them. I hate them with a passion. I would take a six hour busride to personally garrot a Labour MEP if I ever got the chance.
But I won’t get the chance. They have won. The rats have not left the sinking ship, they have assumed command.
So what do I do? I’ve had enough of my chavvy stupid homeland with its reality shows and its CCTV camera culture and its ID-cards-by-stealth and its burgeoning mosques.
I will miss my family and I will yearn for London life and I love my friends and I hope to take my daughter with me but I WANT OUT.
I wanna go somewhere dry and sunny that is not crap and governed by traitors. Somewhere the ethnically enriched populace don’t spit on their soldiers. Somewhere free and not governed by Brussels oligarchs. I’d also like somewhere with a welfare system and a vibrant culture. And it would help if they spoke English.
So. Where can I go? Does anyone have any ideas? I’m thinking the southwest USA if Obama gets into power.
Other ideas welcome. Thankyou.
104.Agree with your on that SBS, but I wonder if Darlings hands are tied on this? Will he try and bring in an across the board increase on duty on spirits because he desperately needs the revenue, rather than a more thoughtful and targeted approach which might address particular groups but is unlikely to swell the Treasury coffers?
It was the emphasis on the tax neutral nature of the Osborne proposals which I thought was quite clever.
108. There are a number of military dictorships on the planet if you prefer?
108 - I left the UK in 1992 having fallen out of love with it. I came back in 1998 and would never ever want to live abroad again. Abroad is for trips, and holidays. Life can be shit anywhere and I happen to like our own flawed very British style of shit.
108.New Zealand Seant, it’s a wonderful place. We nearly ended up emigrating there about 4 years ago, and I still have some regrets we didn’t do it.
“So. Where can I go? Does anyone have any ideas?”
What’s the prize this time? Another Champagne lunch at Groucho’s?
OK. Monaco or Chicago.
108. Had the same conversation with the wife yesterday. I like Obama but have a dislike of americans….probably because most of my family live out there…so no chance of going there!
My personal favourite is Malaysia. Odd I know, but great culture and diversity.
112- I know of at least two cases where people liked NZ on holiday, so moved there thinking it would be like a holiday. And they hated it as a place to live!
SeanT, I actually think Burma may suit you…no europoodles there…
108 Yes, another pathetic example of the nanny state and this time from the Tories. Another curtailment of civil liberties, doomed to failure, in a vain attempt to punish the vast majority for the mis-behaviour of a small minority.
My God, this country is going down the tubes in so many ways.
What about a 5 year sentence in the social democratic paradise that is Norway. Nothing to complain about but the way they got there will drive you mad?
108 Cheer up. Before too long, New Labour will just be a bad memory.
117 Politics seems to get less and less mature.
112. Yes I’ve thought of New Zealand - and indeed Oz, of course- but its such a long way from anywhere. And I don’t see a thriving local culture: merely due to a lack of critical mass.
I like the feel of America. I don’t like its healthcare system but that may change. The sports are crap but you can watch soccer on Mexican TV.
I do like the innate respect they have for the constitution and democracy. The idea that Americans could do what we have done - just hand over power to a foreign and unelected politburo - and then suffer their politicians actually gloating about it, as Nick Palmer did on here, is just ludicrous. It could simply never happen.
Britain’s glory used to be her unwritten constitution. But in the end that has proved our undoing: without any written safeguards we have been slowly castrated by Brussels and by our own quislings. What the people would never wittingly permit has happened by stealth.
Course there is a lot wrong with America. But…. I dunno. Arizona. New Mexico. Mid coast California. Hm. The clean air and the deserts. And the freedom.
Appealing.
Either there or Sydney.
115.SBS, one of my best friends is out there and wouldn’t come back if paid. They miss friends and family, but have settled in well and love it.
118 - I have good friends in Norway - he Russian and she Finnish - and they hate it there. Dull, dull, dull - and wet.
120.California, is it big enough for Seant and the Terminator?
118. Drink is certainly expensive to get there.
Come to think of it, I’m surprised Labour hasn’t suggested we introduce a Swedish-style state alcohol retailing monopoly. Too much cash at stake from potential donors I suppose.
Because of the Oil Industry in the North East there are plenty of flights to Norway, and many go due to work, but not met anyone who would choose to go there of their own accord.
I have a 100% solution for drunkeness.
After 3 times being found drunk in a public place, compulsory inection with the drugs that make you vomit when you drink any alcohol. It cannot be claimed as a breach of human rights cos these idiots vomit when drunk anyway.
Of course nothing will work.
There is no real political will.
Real political will would have offenders cleaning up next day, losing benefits or wages and being forced to do it every Saturday night for a month. Or summat.
When we have idiots like Margaret Hodge in Government, any suggestion of sunsibility is doomed to abject failure.
124 - when Estonia joined the EU, the Finns cut alcohol taxes to about UK levels. They jacked them back up this January.
As for Sweden, the strongest alcohol you can buy in a supermarket is 3% beer . Ridiculous!
Labour would probably love Scando state control of alcohol. I also feel that half of New Labour would force vegetarianism on us too.
122. Yeah. I can’t imagine myself in Norway. Cold and boring and overpriced. Denmark is even worse. Scandinavia sucks in general, even if the people are very nice. Polly Toynbee please go there.
Indeed I guess I’d be happiest where George Monbiot and Polly Toynbee would be least happy - and again that implies the libertarian west of the USA. Or maybe somewhere freewheeling in Asia, like Hong Kong.
That’s a great city. Bangkok but with much better topography. And still quite near Bangkok.
Crap climate though.
Maybe the Italian corner of Switzerland? Ahah! Not in the EU, nice climate, low taxes, good food. Lots of referendums. And that sense of Italian what-the-hellness to make up for the Teutonic nannying. But with really clean streets and no crime.
Hmm…
Was really surprised that there was so little reaction to the Scotsman front page on here today, more about from Fraser Nelson over at the Coffee House Blog. Power failure,apparently its been running on Drudge all day.
Labour would probably love Scando state control of alcohol. I also feel that half of New Labour would force vegetarianism on us too”
It sounds horribly plausible. They seem to lack any joy in their lives.
re 126 I presume you’re referring to disulfiram. It is I fear only available as an oral preparation.
128 Italian Switzerland, and Italy just South of Switzerland are great (and pretty right wing as well).
I’ve sometimes wondered if it would be possible to carve out a right wing country comprising Switzerland, Lombardy and Venezia, Bavaria, and the Tyrol.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0308/Hillarys_ScotsIrish_advantage.html
It’s those damn Celts supporting Clinton (apparently).
130 “They seem to lack any joy in their lives.” No, they get joy by bringing misery to the masses.
Is it not the case that the maximum permissable excise duty which may be levied on each type of alcoholic beverage is controlled by the EU? - The long term aim being to harmonise these across Europe as well as protecting the French wine industry of course!
133.Our influence is everywhere it would seem.
132. Agreed. That would be some country. Maybe we could squeeze in Tuscany as well. And, er, Fitrovia.
Well those medieval countries were mad, weren’t they? Enclaves and exclaves all over the shop.
Until then: I think it’s Italian Switzerland for me. Locarno here I am come. I understand that English is also becoming the lingua franca of Switzerland, due to the mutual incomprehension of francophones and germanophones.
So even the lingo problem is sorted. Avanti Helvetia.
135.Saw that point being made somewhere else today, but it was pointed out that the law is flaunted throughout Europe by countries like Germany?
135 - 138
I expect that the Nordic countries have a derogation from this. “Flouted” rather than “flaunted”.
105 PotB. The delay in the Texas caucus returns is because, amazingly, results may be posted upto three days after the caucus itself !!
139 :blush:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
Intresting development overseas in the credit crunch. House prices surely must be on the way down.
Nick Clegg:
“Asked why he had not simply given his MPs a free vote, he said Europe was “crucial to the party’s identity” and not an “issue of individual conscience”.”
I’m very confused. Does Nick Clegg understand the meaning of the word “abstain”? Is he saying that the fundamental purpose of the Liberal Democrats is to sit on the fence?
143. he’s become wedded to the position now, it is politically damaging and has created a split, however he see’s it as a moral position that he has to make a stand on. He’s wrong of course, abstaining is the worst way of making your point. That plus his MP’s stomping off in a huff last week doesnt look like a stand, more like a paddy because they couldnt get there own way.
44. (26) Some more, to complete the set.
2001
Argyll & Bute, A. Reid (LD) 29.86%
Fermanagh & South Tyrone, M. Gildernew (SF), 34.13%
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, P. Duncan (Con), 34.03%
Londonderry East, G. Campbell (DUP), 32.14%
Moray, A. Robertson (SNP), 30.33%
Perth, A. Ewing (SNP), 29.71%
Upper Bann, D. Trimble (UUP), 33.50%
Ynys Mon, A. Owen (Lab), 35.0%
1997
Colchester, R. Russell (LD) 34.39%
Falmouth & Camborne, C. Atherton (Lab), 33.84%
Hastings & Rye, M. Foster (Lab), 34.37%
Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber, D. Stewart (Lab), 33.89%
Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale, M. Moore (LD), 31.22%
West Tyrone, W. Thompson (UUP), 34.58%
The lists and links provided should contain all those elected to the House of Commons with under 35% of the vote since 1918. Now all I have to do is sort them again…
How the Daily Mash sees the debate about the ‘white working class’
http://tinyurl.com/2ftbl9
Its in dreadful taste, but it is bloody funny.
According to the BBC website, the duty on a bottle of wine varies from nothing in 13 EU countries, to 2.1 euros per 75cl in Ireland.
Nothing??? in 13 EU countries???
And yet politicians here believe that hiking excise duties further will resolve the problem - well I suppose it would were we to move to Scandinavian levels of taxing liquor, Heaven forbid.
143
But was the really big trouble in that vote for Cameron? Could be!!
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
113. Don’t move to Chicago. It’s freezing cold, the transport system is a mess, and the roads are full of potholes if you actually drive.
I also think seanT’s belief in the libertarian west would change if you lived there for long periods and realised how conformist a religious culture actually is. You wouldn’t find any admiration of the British eccentric here. I love the States, but what most shocked me at the place is the levels of judgment that go with people deviating the norm. It’s all a big contrast from the individualism mythos of America.
I don’t see how anyone can argue against the line that some serious measures need to be taken to tackle teenage drinking. And if that means taxing certain drinks massively then so be it. I can’t see teenagers binge drinking on wine or ales, so the rest of us shouldn’t really have too much to worry about.
And if you drink lager. Well tough.
Clegg appears to be compounding his mistakes this week. Sam Coates at the Redbox reports “Clegg: “It’s been a tedious, uneventful week in Westminster”
“Unlike the rest of the party, who seem quite relaxed about what happened, Team Clegg are intensely annoyed with the media for its reporting of the party’s splits this week. They made a formal complaint to the BBC and today Clegg had a one-on-one with Helen Boaden, the corporation’s head of News. He even assailed me for a Times leading article this morning which he described as “pious”.”
Re Obama and Michigan. It’s worth noting that Obama has won every state that Jesse Jackson won in ‘88 and ‘84, and quite a few others as well. As far as I can tell, Obama has out-polled Jackson equivilent vote shares in each state too.
In ‘88, Jackson won Michigan with 55% of the vote. Surely an excellent omen for Obama. (He also won Mississippi, as well as the Texas caucuses.)
“I wanna go somewhere dry and sunny that is not crap and governed by traitors. Somewhere the ethnically enriched populace don’t spit on their soldiers. Somewhere free and not governed by Brussels oligarchs. I’d also like somewhere with a welfare system and a vibrant culture. And it would help if they spoke English.”
How about the Pitcairn Islands?
>alex
Sorry that is naive.
You are a 17 year old drinking 6% lager… the price rises 50%. You find you can only afford 4 cans instead of 6.
But 2 bottles of cheap white wine you discover have the same effect and cost the same as 4 cans.
So what do you do?
It’s called a market economy… even the Conservatives know that. (or did).
150 How about far tougher penalties for those who get drunk, rather than indiscriminately higher taxes for those of us who don’t?
Who really believes that an extra £1-£2 of tax on a few bottles of alcopops is really going to dissuade those idiots from getting drunk?
Well clearly Mr Cameron does!
40. Oh so Hillary’s busy on the old franking machine…
Congratulations Mike! Have mega fun with your new grandchild you ole codger
3. More taxes - now that’s a real sure fire election winner
16 - Russell Johnston in Inverness Nairn and Lochaber must be in the top 3
108. Canada, west coast is my choice, depending how far you want to go. Apart from the chicks, who I’m sure you will find to your taste, the quality of life, and distinct lack of crime, the keen intelligence of the people, the cleanliness, the service, the culture, the craic, the scenic beauty may as well be on another planet, compared to this hell-hole…
Family responsibilities i