Tories move up seven seats in a month
March 7th, 2008
Why the new confidence on the spread markets?
While all main focus has been on the US elections there’s been a quiet move to the Tories on the spread betting markets on the number of seats the parties will get at the general election.
This is the form of betting where you “trade” on the seat numbers and where, if you predict it right, you can make short-term profits to pocket now even though it is at least a year away from the general election. It is also a form of betting where with two of the three main operators you can arrange it so that don’t have to put any cash up front now.
We last looked at the prices two days before “Super Tuesday” in early February and then things appeared a bit brighter for Brown’s government. The spreads on February 3rd were CON 292-298: LAB 274-280: LD 47-50. To secure a majority a party will need 325 seats or more.
What is interesting is that there hasn’t been much of a change in the polls in the intervening period. The latest polls from YouGov and ICM are down on what they were at the start of February - ComRes, Populus and Ipsos-MORI are up.
I don’t see much value either way in the current markets and have little at stake.
Mike Smithson
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But which seven?
Broxtowe, Redditch, Pendle, Bury South…..
Big spreads=small profits. Avoid.
39 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul is hinting to supporters that he is ending his long-shot campaign for the presidency.
re 3. Fair point - Sporting Index and IG Index operate with six seat spreads which do reduce the profit opportunities. Mind you SI has just reduced its spreads on the London mayoral race which makes its market that more attractive. On their 0-10-25 market the spread is only 1.
5
Mike
Coral offering Evens on Bojo still, good in about £10k! they say.
OT, but does anyone else think the Tory proposals for a tax hike on strong beer and spirits utterly barmy, and the sort of headline-grabbing nonsense we expect from Lib Dems?
Why should I, a responsible social drinker, have to pay 50p more per time for a Stella on George Osborne’s say-so, whilst he decrees that a boring old cooking lager should be dropped in price to “encourage” me to drink it?
Is this what life under a future Tory Govt would be like?
Trouble is, given Labour’s recent “form”, you can bet that now the Tories have proposed this, it will be in Brown’s Budget next week (as read out by the Puppet Chancellor)…
A very good point about Speadfair, Mike. Their new, strict rules on credit are going to cost them dear. I wonder if this is a prelude to their pulling out of the market? They have little volume much of the time, and this is going to make it less attracive to use them.
If only this site carried more betting clout, your condidered (and rare) crititisms of bookies might lead to some improvements.
7 - Clearly you shouldn’t be drinking Stella at all… I wouldn’t mind quite so much if he planned something like - “a reduction in taxation on hand crafted traditional english ales - to encourage the microbreweries and encourage english tradition of real ales” - But then that’s just me want a tax cut on the things that I drink which isn’t really the way to choose
[7] I don’t think it’ll be in the Budget, Bob, apparently the Tory proposal contravenes some EU regulation or other (according to the biassed left-wing Eurofanatic BBC :)) - so now we know who’s getting all those teenage girls legless, yes, it’s Sean T’s favourite people
Interesting to see that the spread market has Labour losing 85 seats, only another 35 to ago to my Apocalpytic Scenario
7. Try drinking some high quality, tasty, moderate strength English beer instead of tatty chemical soup imitation lager. Problem solved.
[10] “to ago” should read “to go”, of course.
What I can’t figure out is why the LibDems are so high, when their recent showing and the resurgent Tories mean they could be wiped out almost completely.
“….of course, we couldn’t introduce ABC policy because of EU rules. X should know that”.
This says nothing about the merits of the ABC idea. But this line clearly doesn’t irritate other people as much as it does me.
9
I agree, but then again I run a microbrewery….
10/7. The Germans already do it so I doubt it does contrevene EU law. Still good gvt spin put out by the brown broadcasting company again. Part of me wonders whether the Conservatives ’spy’ inside gvt has had a wiff of something about this in the budget.
Personally I think its broadly a good idea but not sure exactly how much difference it would make in practice.
13,
Its because the libdems be “Winning here”
Is the move down to the stabilty of the Tory position I wonder. 40% has been pretty consistent now.
Watched question time last night, milliband was as usual good at spouting the party line but dreadful at dealing with any difficult questions he hadnt pre-prepared for, such as those from david davies. Shirley Williams was passionate over europe but david davies ripped her apart over it quite elequently and easily when he got the chance. marcus brigstock was very good and measured, a bit funny but also serious so the funny bits felt funnier. faraga was ok but still comes off as the leader of an oddball party. David Davies has got a lot better at seeming personable and sincere, he also tore apart the arguements of the lib dems over the treaty, and then destroyed the theory behind I.D cards easily also. No wonder he’s got rid of so many home secretaries in his time.
re 13. The reason that the Lib Dem spread is as it is is because that is where punters are putting their money. This is a market and if you consider that the LD 47-50 seat spread is too high then place a sell bet. If enough other punters do the same then the spread price will fall.
In betting money talks.
Ed Balls - “A levels, excellence for a few, BTECs 2nd rate for everyone else”
this odious moron is in charge of the education system, no wonder there’s been a move to the tories on the spread betting market.
In one sentence he dismisses the majority of the 16-19 student body, demonstrates he knows nothing about either A levels or BTECs and dismisses his own government’s framework for qualifications.
what a twit(sic)
19. I agree Ed M was not particularly effective in debate terms, but I was surprised that he came across as relatively normal for a Broonnoser.
I thought DD was good, also thought SW was on good form, especially as she was on a sticky wicket.
21. ed balls is a liability, if he becomes chancellor osborne will think christmas has come early.
22. the problem with milliband is his complete inability to sound authoratative(sp?), and inability to deal with difficult questions without resorting to soundbites. Shirley williams was on good form, but david davies had her over europe she just clammed up. overall david davies came off best I think, he’s a lot less old tory, a lot more pragmative, and very good at disecting government policy in a way people understand easily.
23 - Perhaps Brown will replace Darling with a jobshare Chancellor of Balls and the aforementioned Millibrother, he could say that two Ed’s are better than one!
‘What is interesting is that there hasn’t been much of a change in the polls in the intervening period.’
Perhaps because Conservative support is remaining strong and Labour weak despite the fact the constant Labour Party funding scandals have been out of the news for a bit suggesting that this level of support is stable and sustainable.
Brigstocke was funny and likeable, but blatantly leftwing. When he asked the “put your hands up” people if they’d read the constitution, he could just as easily have asked those in favour of it, and they wouldn’t've read it either.
Farage did reasonably well, and the Mili-Band was actually pretty good as well, likeable but not exactly a PM in waiting. Shirley Williams is a mental fanatic about the EU, and David Davis slapped her down effectively. Davis did the best, but Miliband did a decent job too.
Thats one of labour parties big problems at the moment. They have no big hitters other than Brown. Balls, Milliband et al just don’t hack it. Apart from Jack Straw.
25 but according to our very own soothsayer roger, Tory support is “collapsing”
Wouldn’t it be funny if Roger and Ave it 08 are one and the same person!
An entertaining QT last night, but Shirley Williams needs sending to an institution, she’s a nutcase. And came across as such. That said, the Manc audience seemed to lap up everything she said - had the Manchester Lib Dems somehow infiltrated the audience last night?
I didn’t see Farage particularly putting the boot in to the Tories last night, indeed there seemed to be some mutual love and respect between him and Davis last night - surely UKIP aren’t coming to their senses and realising that their policy of “destroying the Tory Party” and doing their best to ensure it never returns to Government probably isn’t the best way of getting what they want??
UKIP are short of money at the moment.
Only two by-elections last night so far as I can see. A BNP intervention nearly cost Labour a seat in Warwickshire (won by a single vote), with Tories doing well, while the LDs had a good swing from the Tories in Haringey. Don’t think we can draw any conclusions from either. But there might be some professional all-party interest in a new Tory campaign technique in the Warks seat - reportedly a mail merge proxy voting form combined with a covering letter: if they send it back then hey presto they’ve voted Tory. I’m dubious about this concept, because it appears to blur the distinction between campaigning and voting, but I may have misunderstood the details. It’d be interesting to know more - if it’s legal and it gets a lot of response I can see all parties doing it (which might not be a good thing but you know how politics works).
A personal note - I share the criticism that a number of posters have made of some of the views expressed by Rod Crosby lately, but Rod’s kind, serious, helpful posts last night to another regular poster in distress have made me rethink my image of Rod - in the end it’s more important to be a decent bloke than to have opinions that we like.
7 - It is the cider element that may come to haunt the Tories. I suspect it will cheer up David Heath in Somerton and also doesn’t make a lot of sense in marginal Hereford (both big seats for cidermakers and cider drinkers). They claim the most popular ciders won’t be affected but I cannot see how when they are pretty much all at the strong lager alcohol level.
“CHEAP super-strength booze is behind much of the mayhem on our streets.
So the Tory proposal to put these drinks beyond the pockets of rampaging young thugs makes sense.
As Shadow Chancellor George Osborne proposes in today’s Sun, duty on brain-rotting ciders, lagers and alcopops would rise while weak drinks would be cheaper.
It’s hard to see an argument against this. The country is crying out for action on yobbery.
Since Osborne’s idea is so sound, Labour will probably steal it for next week’s Budget.
Not to worry, George. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.”
I’m suprised The Sun is backing this. I remember when one of Camerons policy groups announced a proposal to tax beer more they said it was wrong. Darce will probably blast the Tories now.
32 Nick, quote of the day.
“in the end it’s more important to be a decent bloke than to have opinions that we like.”
here here.
33 Think its a Cunning Plan - either a) they are hoping that Darling will steal the policy as it chimes with Gordon’s recent statements or b) the suspected mole has told them something quite close in Budget.
32. Well said Nick (regarding RC) I was thinking exactly the same thing.
24. ooooh, bad pun, but well thought out
26. the millibands are good at set piece engagements (speeches etc) but when things break down into trench warfare they lose their edge. thats where david davies, willian hague etc have the advantage, they’ve had to take flack for years in opposition whereas the millibands havent (remind you of the last tory government anyone?)
27. very true, but jack straw isnt great either. he can come across as competant, but when under real pressure does look vulnerable.
7. A typical Nu-con proposal. We will raise taxes on this bottle, but lower taxes on this bottle. So this will change our behaviour how? It was exactly the same tactic with the green taxes.
7. Yes, Bob, I’m also very cross about this.
A profoundly stupid and unconservative thing to do.
What is Osbourne playing at?
32,
On the other hand, in one council seat in Leeds during the last council elections, it was the BNP that cost the Tory the ward and went back to Labour.
Really rather annoyed about the Tories’ drinking proposals. Most of the beer and cider I drink is ’strong’ as most high quality alcoholic drinks are. Theakstons Old Peculier and Tennants Extra will fall into the same bracket here.
So, after Labour and the Lib Dems losing my vote over reneging on their commitments to hold a referendum, the Tories are now in danger of losing my vote too.
Now, I KNOW this will be quietly shelved when they realise it’s stupid and unworkable. But I wish they’d put some thought into these things before they trot them out.
7. As a Liberal, I’m disappointed that the Tories have stolen a march on us on this; the fight against “the trade” is part of our proud Liberal heritage. If we’re trying to curb anti-social behaviour, then higher taxes on canned lager would be a good idea too. It’s not just teenagers who are drinking to excess.
I think it its wider politics than just tax on Alco pops. The tories are playing politics with both eyes on next weeks budget.
When Cameron ran for the leadership I can remember him telling the Question time audience that he would not rush out policies for the morning headlines. But this is clearly what he is doing here. They obviously got wind that Brown is going to come out with something similar in the budget and so they will put this out now to say that Labour are stealing their policies.
Now that’s all very well and good, but what choice does it give the electorate? But regardless of what party does this, it will not solve what it pretends to.
German poll update here: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
Looking at the breakdown of the vote by area in the latest (Infratest) poll, I see the former Communists are now the largest party in the former GDR provinces, with 30% of the vote. Socrates was comparing them with Europhiles the other day as (he thought) maybe well-meaning but deeply unpopular - hmm! More seriously, the polls all show that a long-term realignment in Germany is going to be needed to get majorities. Either a grand coalition is needed, as now, or three parties need to agree. The Greens, who are open to cooperation with anyone, seem to be the main potential strategic winners from this.
You can be nice but mad. You can be sane but nasty. But you can’t be both nice and sane and deny the Holocaust.
7 - I have to say I see the merits in this, taxation is a blunt instrument but sometimes you have to be blunt! Personally I think it needs to be a part of the package and not the package in total. I think we need to move to more extensive ID checks on underage drinkers, and possibly a blanket ban on drinking alcohol outside the perimeter of licensed premises.
48. Taxes could work but only if you raise them across the board on drink. just taxing one type of drink will just lead to people buying another type.
Meanwhile …. An excellent review below of US pollsters and also some early projections for November :
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/6/212016/8597/980/470910
19
Right! I’m not telling you again, get it right!!!!!
The name of the shadow home secretary is, ‘DAVID DAVIS’ Davis is the English spelling, Davies is the Welsh spelling, (There is a Tory MP called David Davies)
Hmmmm so Milliband just spouts the party line, well cuddles you could never be accused of doing that!!!
” When Cameron ran for the leadership I can remember him telling the Question time audience that he would not rush out policies for the morning headlines. ”
I don’t think that applies during what is now effectively a local election campaign.
Better to pay a little extra for beer under a Tory government than being forced to fork out 30 quid (and have to spend maybe a day travelling to and waiting at the ‘nearby’ interrogation centre) for an ID card under a Labour one.
And that’s not mentioning the massive fines you could face if your card — which, legally, won’t be your card at all — gets lost or damaged, or if you forget to notify the police every time you change address or get married.
Some people here need to get their priorities sorted out, really!
49 - Yes, but you shouldn’t penalise all drinkers and if the bigger problems are caused by alcopops then tackle that. Like I say this should be one part of a wider strategy not the only club in the bag!
So what about the kids round here who buy lemonade and cheap vodka instead of wasting money on over hyped alcopops.
49, Very true only only massive increases across the board would cut drinking levels.
Talk about gimmicks they are all at it.!
Meanwhile II …. If you think the Texas caucus results are a might slow in reporting (only 41% todate) it would appear that snail mail is responsible !!
http://www.slate.com/id/2185920
When I was a binge-drinking, trouble-making teenager the only thing I cared about at the off-licence was how cheap a drink was. I didn’t care what it was or where it came from. If something was cheaper than alcopops I would buy it.
Besides the big problem with kids now is Vodka not alcopops.
“32 Nick, quote of the day.
“in the end it’s more important to be a decent bloke than to have opinions that we like.””
Hate to be a controversialist, and I appreciate that Nick is trying to be nice, but is that totally true? Weren’t some of the Nazis quite huggable? Hitler loved animals, and was said to be very charming when he wished to be. Mao too could be clubbable, so they say.
More pertinently, to me, I have met several people out here in Bangkok in the last two weeks - journos and TV producers - who have been covering the Khmer Rouge trials in Cambodia. These guys have been to Phnom Penh and interviewed many of the main players.
What has struck me is the journalistic unanimity on one point - all these hacks say the Khmer Rouge old-timers are some of the most likeable people you could hope to meet - highly educated, extremely well mannered, apparently very caring and compassionate, and urbanely charming in that Chiracian French way (a lot of the Khmer Rouge went to Uni in Paris, of course).
And yet these same old lovable Kampuchean boulevardiers are some of the biggest war criminals on the planet. They killed two million people. Maybe a third of their country’s population.
It’s a paradox. Being on the surface decent and likeable can still mean you are evil. Indeed some people are decent and likeable one minute, and genocidal the next.
I’m not saying Rod Crosby is this! To be honest Mr Crosby confuses me. One minute pb’s very own David Irving, the next the spirit of affability. And he was very understanding to Patrick last night.
But beware of the charming, likeable men in high politics…
51. okie doke, I am part welsh and spend a fair bit of time in wales so used to it being davies. I don’t always spout the party line, I thought Cameron made a mess out of grammar schools, and in the beginning didnt deal with Brown very well. And I wasnt criticising Milliband for spouting the party line, just being unable to do that much else when being questioned. He cant deflect questions or turn it around on his opponant.
54 et al.
I think it’s fair to say that is clever politics that should play well to the Mail etc.
Personally, I’m not a fan - I think it will just move the goalposts; people who want to get drunk, they’ll just adapt to drinking the next cheapest thing.
Plus, look at the propsals - strong cider going from £1.25 to £1.66 a litre*. That is hardly going to stop park-bench drinkers from getting wasted, is it?
*god, I remember when it was 99p a litre when I was at uni all of three years ago - and 97p for two litres for a couple of weeks! That’s the unseen inflation we’re hearing about, I guess…
[54] I don’t think it is the only club in the bag, James. Tax on booze hasn’t risen for years, and if Darling is minded to raise it, the best way of doing so is a proper subject for debate.
Just as an opinion to stir the pot, I think there’s merit in taxing off-sales at a higher rate than booze sold in pubs/clubs/restaurants, and dealing firmly with licensees who sell to drunks - I think there’s going to be a “yellow card” system where a licensee who’s had a formal warning loses the licence automatically for a repetition. The police won’t like it much, though - suits them to know where the troublemakers drink.
49,
Sadly true - yobs will just get whatever drink gives them the most bang for the buck. I strongly doubt that they are buying alcoholic drinks just for the flavour, so (as incentives matter), they will change their behaviour to get wrecked as cheaply as possible. Unless all alcohol is increased in price, there will be a way through.
As spirits and ciders such as Strongbow won’t be affected, there will be a way. A bottle of vodka. A bottle of Strongbow. A bottle of gin.
Or as the old saying goes: One Tepquila, two tequila, three tequila, Floor!
I’m a little annoyed as I’ve got slightly weird taste-buds and dislike the aftertaste of most alcoholic drinks - but I like alcopops. This will make my life slightly more costly without achieving anything.
Meanwhile III …. in a publication named in honour of the new Lib Dem leader, it would appear that Michigan is looking to re-run its primary as a caucus. Hillary will be pleased :
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/03/06/breaking-michigan-caucus-likely-says-dnc-rules-committee-member.aspx
62. I agree. Get people into pubs where their age can be checked and where behaviour can generally be better controlled. It would also help out many pubs which are doing quite badly since the smoking ban
58,
Very true.
Now many people before they go out, buy the cheap drink and down it at home.
Then go to the pubs and clubs, to finish the night off, so avoiding the high costs.
However both a Conservative and Labour governments are not going to upset the drinks industry,so they both fall back on gimmickery.
59: seanT - agreed ont he Khmer Rouge etc. On this occasion I think I’d make a distinction between people in power (or seeking to be in power) and people who just post on websites. I’d rather have someone unpleasant with splendid policies in power than vice versa, though at some point a really nasty personality will probably seep through to the policies too (suggest we collectively don’t waste time trading supposed examples from contemporary British politics). If it’s just a private person with dubious views, that’s another matter.
7
Don’t see why the 95% + majority should have to pay higher taxes on alchol because of a few mindless morons.
Scrap the 24 hour drinking which everyone except the government agrees is a disaster,raise the drinking age to 21 and for once just once enforce it,of course this won’t happen because the police are far too busy clearing up the mess created by other government policies.They now have yet another new task in Peterborough protecting our service staff from abuse and worse.
59 - “Hate to be a controversialist” - nonsense, SeanT. It’s one of your favourite sports.
But thank you for saying what some of us felt but didn’t feel they could put in print. It somehow doesn’t seem so personal coming from the Hunter S Thompson of blogging.
61
When I lived in Devon there was a pub which would fill a lemonade bottle with ‘Rough’ for sixpence, 2.5p: yep those where the days, I only wish I could remember them!!
Good too see ‘Blue Labour’ has adopted the nanny state with such vigour. Now! where did I put that clause4, think I’ve found a home for it!!
The Mash on RAF uniforms is quite good. Speaking from experience, the place deserves to be bombed. Oundle is rather nice though.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/war/raf-to-bomb-peterborough-back-to-stone-age-20080307777/
24-hour drinking has been a disaster. All my local pubs still close at 11.
Seriously though, binge drinking has been a problem for hundreds of years in this country and nothing the government or the Tories have done will seriously change that. However al least extended opening means that the majority of responsible people (in some areas) now have the freedom to buy a drink after the bewitching hour of 11pm.
36 - It wouldn’t strike Osborne as half so cunning if he was a regular at a pub in Somerset or Gloucestershire who had just heard the Tories planned to whack up the tax on his cider.
The general trouble with alcohol taxes is that the first pint of cider of the evening does nobody any harm. It is the tenth that does. Seldom reported is the fact that most drinking isn’t binge drinking - it is people having a quiet pint or three with friends and relatives, causing nobody any bother at all. You can’t tax binge drinking out of existence without clobbering the vast majority of people who are making a free choice and causing no bother. It is simply a bad thing if massive taxes hit the enjoyment of law-abiding, decent people.
70. Of course, Cameron could nationalize off-licenses, as they have in Ontario; or bring pubs into public ownership, as they did in Carlisle in WW1.
I would.
68. Entirely agree with your first point, but I’m afraid that I have to diagree with the second paragraph!
If we trust someone to vote, then we must allow them the right to drink (even if only to console themselves in the unlikely event that Brown squeezes over the line next time round!); people make ill-considered choices when they vote, but we don’t strip them of their right - same applies to boozing.
And the 24-hr drinkng license is correct - central government shouldn’t decide this. It is rich from the LGA to criticise the law, when it is Local Authorities that makes the decision; if they don’t want drinking after 11pm then they shouldn’t allow it.
The solution is to educate the morons, and punish them suitably when they act like morons (you vandalise public property after a night on the lash, then you spend a Saturday night cleaning-up other people’s vomit etc.)
re 32 so Nick is this an admission that the majority of BNP voters are former Labour voters?
You know the dirty little secret about Britain’s ‘binge drinking culture’ that no politician wants to admit is?
There’s *nothing* the government can do about it.
re several but of course we’ve got our tax cuts coming up next month to pay for more Stella.
Oops, I forgot, that only applies to well off people - the poor will be paying more in income tax.
On Mike’s point about SpreadFair.
1. Yes, this has caused trouble and forced me to deposit real money in my SF account. Some may have been forced to close positions at short notice which is unfair. My previously positive view of SpreadFair has been dented.
2. SpreadFair remains my spread better of choice because the spreads are often small and there are enough players in the market most of the time for my strategic/tactical approach (which is different to Mike’s).
3. If find IG Index almost unuseable because of the large spreads and their onerous deposit requirements.
On the change in the spreads over the past month.
1. Stability has reinforced confidence in the Tories to be the largest party after the next GE.
2. There is still a reluctance to accept that Labour could collapse like the Tories did in ‘97, which is shoring up their sell price.
3. No-one is putting money on the LDems up or down as it is impossible to judge who they will take seats off/lose seats to until we see how Clegg beds in/whether he lasts.
70 Used to be a farm nearby with a number of huge casks full of home brewed cider. Used to wander up with empty containers, then farmer made you try each cask to see which was best (so half a mug of each), then fill containers and you would stagger home having consumed two or three pints of cider in a short period while tasting. Great cider.
Doubt he or we paid any duty or tax.
Nick,
Really sorry that you are apparently saying it’s fine for a private person to deny the gas chambers, and defend the use of the term “paki” as RC did last night, basically because you like him.
Not denying Rod can do some nice things but I think anti-semitic and other racism rules him out for friendship or respect.
Back to lurking.
73 - No you cannot tax binge-drinking into oblivion but there is a good case for altering the balance, and the debate is worth entering into and discussing seriously. It might be worth encouraging a policy of ‘No ID, No entry’ into pubs, there could be a case for a zero tolerance approach to drinking outside of licensed premises or private residences. There should be a debate about how to tackle the issue.
69. I dont really want to get involved in whether or not RC is a holocaust denier and as a defender of free specch and a hater of political correctness I cant really judge him (though that is my instinct).
However, what really bugs me, and its happened again on this very thread, is the hypocricy of the lefties when it comes to things like this. Whether its Castro, eastern european Communism or even RCrosby there is a sort of benign acceptance of what could be seen by many as deeply unpleasant views because they come from the left. It is a perfect snapshot of Mcbroon’s tribalism..
I can only imagine the pompous self righteous venom Roger and others of the left would have poured on a Conservative poster if he/she had posted holocaust denial threads. You just have to see how Livingstone and his upporters on here and elsewhere respond to Boris for much more benign commnets taken out of context.
It eats into the credibility of anything else they have to say..
74
I beleive that the ending of the nationalized pub in Carlisle has been greatly mourned.
I once supported the ‘tie’ now believe it should be ended. All pubs should now become ‘free houses’ able to buy their beer from wholesalers the best beer for the best price.
Whetherspoons has shown the present system is no longer ‘fit for purpose’
82
Good ideas but the police don’t have the time or manpower to enforce it so other than perhaps being a headline for a day it’s not going to happen.
our local con club regularly sells State bitter….
There is a cultural element to all of this that no amount of clever taxation policy will solve. The British drink to excess. End of.
Americans, Europeans, Singaporeans, everyone is totally amazed by what the British consider ‘normal’ drinking habits.
Solution? If there were to be one it would be found in the wider moral and cultural signposts our society has followed since the end of rationing.
Don’t blame the parents, don’t blame the landlords and the off-licencees, don’t blame the schools, churches and governments. Look around you, remember your own youth and blame yourselves.
Just to say that my daughter Cayt has just given birth to Esther her first child.
Gratz, grandad.
88,
Congratulations!
88. Congratulations to Cayt and Grandad.
88 Congratulations.
[77] In my gloomier moments I tend to think that, too.
The basic problem is that one in twelve (approximately) of us are allergic to alcohol. No one really knows why, although there is a viewpoint that it’s genetic. (I’m agnostic on that one.) But I daresay everyone here knows someone who can drink like a fish and be none the worse, and someone else who goes mental after only a couple of drinks. We really know very little about why alcohol affects different people so differently, a by-product of our ignorance of how brain relates to mind, I suppose. (Yes I know there are lots of theories - the trouble is, that’s what they are, theories…)
75 Back in the 1960s in South Africa, all licenced premises had to close for 24 hours prior to polling. Not sure if they still do, though.
Many congrats to Cayt and Esther, yourself and all Smithsons!
I wonder if Mr Palmer would be defending RC quite so forcefully if Blair, back during his first term, had proceeded with his initial plan to criminalise Holocaust denial?
[88] And congratulations from me too, you’d better wet the baby’s head before the price goes up
@87:
Precisely. The binge-drinking culture is a culture. How does a government change a culture? It doesn’t.
Any politician who believes a nation’s culture is something they can bend and control with a few incentives is deluded. Even totalitarian states find culture hard to bend.
That said, that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t do Dave’s idea, since there’s no harm in making Britain’s binge drinkers more financially accountable for their actions, but if he believes it will change the culture in any way, he’ll be disappointed.
88 - Congratulations.
When did pubs ever close at 11.00? In most places I have lived in you could always get a drink later provided there was, as the police said, “no trouble”. As soon as there was, then the full force of the law was applied.
One exception was Strtford-upon-Avon, certainly in the mid / late 1970’s when your hand could be chopped off as the shutters came down at 10.40pm In those days it was not 11.00 closing but half an hour earlier.
[68] - “Don’t see why the 95% + majority should have to pay higher taxes on alchol because of a few mindless morons.
Scrap the 24 hour drinking which everyone except the government agrees is a disaster,raise the drinking age to 21″
Do you not see how your first clause contradicts your own suggestions. Whenever I drink alcohol I do so responsibly, and the 11pm closing always used nark me, pointlessly arbitrary. You also get a decent chunk of young people, 18-21, who can drink without causing a major nuisance - why penalise them?
Instead of dreaming up more ways of having a go at people who aren’t causing a problem, how about a revolutionary idea of concentrating effort on dealing with those people who are? There are public order offences on the statute book - use them. When someone is fined make sure they actually pay the fine instead of losing the paperwork.
88 - Congratulations.
Congratulations to you and your family, Mike
100 You should have come to Alcester, Richard. The Swan in particular was very enlightened in those days.
re 88 Congrats…’just’ given birth - were you still posting on here as it happened!!
100,Many,many congratualations,Mike,I hope mother and baby are both doing well:P.S Cheers to Rod last night who gave me some very good advice
Congrats, Mike!
94 - I recall in 1997 that polling day was the day after May Day. I was in Oxford at the time and we had a good turnout from students simply on the basis of steering the staggering masses into the polling booths on the way back from Magdalen Bridge. The queues were massive for an hour when polling stations opened and the elections staff can’t have known what hit them. The rest of the day was a bit of a write off for student turnout. Had the result been closer, Evan Harris might have owed his seat to the drunken vote - but ultimately it wouldn’t really have mattered if no students had bothered that day.
98 - Culture is changeable, it takes time but it can change. If it didn’t we would still be burning heretics and hang, draw and quartering traitors.
88. Congrats Grandad.
On the topic of alcohol, I don’t see the problem with a raise in duty on a drug that has fallen in real term price hughly over the past couple of decades. All for those who think the tory proposal is rushed, it was suggested by the IDS report last summer. The Tories have simply bought it out again at a more appropriate time. And those who are thinking of changing their vote for the sake of 40p a pint, how very shallow.
88, congrats:)
@108:
Well, yes. But culture is not changed by governments with a few incentives. In practice, it changes over decades with the deaths of passing generations.
Which means that by far the most efficient way to change the culture would be to round up and execute them all. Though I suspect that Dave isn’t ready to take that step just yet.
88 Gratters, gramps.
111 - Oh good grief!
Thanks for kind comments.
For those who follow the world of TV poker my daughter, Cayt Dear, has been the Producer of “Late Night Poker” on “UK Poker Tour” on Channel 4 as well as “Interpoker.Com University Clash”; “Celebrity Poker Club”; “All-Star Poker Challenge” and many others.
This gambling thing must be in our genes.
111. Lol! The Conservative party today: we offer radical solutions to difficult problems.
Puts me in mind of my favourite episode of the New Statesman, where B’stard steals a policy paper entitled “Slavery: The New Economic Miracle”. Great stuff!
But you are right in general that this will have no major effect on people’s drinking habits.
@111:
Note to Mr Burdett: I’m not saying it should be Conservative policy should be to execute binge drinkers.
What I am saying is that culture really only changes as people die off, so if government wanted to achieve widespread cultural change, that’s how it would do it.
Since social euthanasia is unlikely to be government policy in the immediate future, that’s why I take the position that there’s really nothing can be done about it.
British people are a nation of binge-drinkers, and we need to learn to live with that.
It’s an abysmal idea. I enjoy drinking, and I never cause any trouble while doing so, why should I be expected to pay to cover this misdeeds of others?
Cuh.
Congratulations, Mike. That is good news.
WRT political villains, plenty of the World’s worst people have been charming and affable. Sometimes this charm and affability is just a sham. Sometimes, they seem to have genuinely split personalitiies; sometimes it’s just a case of absolute power absolutely corrupting otherwise decent people.
116 - I think you are wrong, you can change things by applying a squeeze through taxation and legislation.
Nice work Mike. Top tip. If you live within easy babysitting distance, move now!
Lol I asked a question about the p game because we’re gamblers and Mike mentioned it not because I’m a spammer! Wondered why no-one answered it
Well done Mike. I shall just check if anyone backed Esther in our market on the baby’s name.
Some of the usual frivolous budget markets up at ladbrokes now. If anyone has any suggestions for any other nonsense, let me know.
114 Congratulations Mr Smithson- and congrats to your daughter too- late night p*ker was/is a stunningly good show. I don’t think the British p*ker surge would have happened without it. It’s certainly a big part of the reason my friends and I started playing. Mind you, that should make her a hate figure in the Daily Mail, so she better keep quiet!
But how on earth did you get all those references to P*ker through your spam filter?
Congratulations Mike
Raising taxes on alcohol will not work: the sums involved are significant if you are sober and hardworking but if you are a drunken yob they will make no difference.
Apply the current laws. Oops prisons full, Probation Service understaffed and stretched, Social Services a waste of space.
Personally if running a lOcal Authority, I’d ensure any pub with after hours drunks problems or offlicenses selling underage alcohol would find the law structly applied.
It’s only a matter (! says he) of having the will to persecute offenders.
And I mean persecute. Make the law make their lives a misery.
@123:
I wouldn’t have gotten into the beautiful game without Jesse May.
“Tell us about the dealer button, Barney…”
Every week.
123 - My earlier question was whether the surge in the p game was coming to an end as the games online seem to have got much tougher suggesting less players around?
On the alcopops topic. GAH. Policy by headline to the max. If you define alcopops as X, drinks companies will manke something that is similar to, but not quite X. What definition could you aplly anyway? You can probably get away with taxing strong beers and ciders more easiliy by just setting a duty based on ABV. Again though, you’d just distort the market as people rushed to produced ABV -0.000001 drinks. Arguably that would be a success if the reduction was significant, but if it’s moving from 5.3% to 4.99% I don’t see it making a big difference.
I wonder if Cameron raised the issue of irresponsible drinking when he was a director of Tiger Tiger? To be fair to him he has been pretty reasonable on late night drinking though.
127. Or when he was trashing Oxford restaurants
128 - don’t, you’ll get Roger started on his favourite topic again….
O/T
Damn it,missed this one although I was told about it!
Bets halted over ’super dog’ fear
The prestigious Best In Show will be awarded on Sunday
Concerns that a mystery “super dog” will paw Crufts’ top prize has led a bookmaker to cease taking bets.
William Hill said it closed the book on which category of dog would win Best in Show after a “flurry of activity” over two days backed a “utility” dog winner.
Odds for the usually unfancied group, which includes dalmatians and bulldogs, were slashed from 13-2 to 1-2.
@127:
Yeah, we should use a less ambiguous term. Speaking as a self-confessed brightly-coloured-fruit-based-drink drinker, I’m used to a number of the alternatives.
“Dave announces plans to triple the duty on poof juice; Old Compton Street announces general strike”
PA reports: Labour has hung on by just one vote in a knife-edge Warwickshire County Council by-election.
Its candidate Doug Hodkinson polled 724 votes to 723 for the Conservatives’ Claire Watson at Lawford and New Bilton in the new marginal Rugby parliamentary constituency.
The division was last contested on the same day as the 2005 general election.
Tory hopes of winning a foothold on north London’s Haringey Borough Council were dashed by a swing to Liberal Democrats at Highgate ward.
A technical problem led to suspension of the count in a by-election for Scotland’s South Lanarkshire Council.
Counting at Cambuslang East is due to resume at noon.
RESULTS:
Haringey London Borough - Highgate: Lib Dem 1339, C 725, Lab 241, Ind 190, Green 138. (May 2006 - Three seats Lib Dem 1534, 1523, 1405, C 1163, 1119, 1068, Ind 467, Green 424, Lab 418, 412, Green 349, Lab 347, Green 262). Lib Dem hold. Swing 6.9% C to Lib Dem.
Warwickshire County - Lawford and New Bilton: Lab 724, C 723, BNP 313, Lib Dem 235, Green 148. (May 2005 - Lab 1712, C 1191, Ind 616, Lib Dem 585). Lab hold. Swing 6.3% Lab to C.
I agree the drinking problem is largely cultural and will not be solved easily without the kind of measures that will make even more of a problem to the average person. The Government has let the genie out of the bottle - remember they did text new voters at the General Election about what the Conservatives would to restrict their freedom to drink. The trouble is that those of us who grew up in the 1960’s and were much more sensible then (!!!) will die out before the current youngsters are able to become mature in 30 years time.
136. Let’s see if this get’s through the spam trap…
IThe big change came with the passing of UIGEA in the states. This was a homeland security measure that had a clause in it making money ttransfers to offshore casinos very difficult legally. All the publicly traded companyies like P***y Pok*r, had to pull out of the US market and the casual american gambler dispappeared from the onl*ne p*ker table.
This makes the games much tighter and tougher. It’s easy enough to adapt your style of course, but I didn’t play for a year or so and when I came back I learnt a few painful lessons before I did!
One consolation prize is that I think as a result of all this the bon*s and R*keB*ck deals that are on offer to european players now are much better.
Congrats Gramps,
Free speach means people can deny the holocaust. Free speach means I can point out how absurd it is too hold such a position. My dad spent 3 years in a Japanese POW camp to defend it. Many people of my dads generation died to defend it.
We mess with it at our peril.
124
What about ID cards,the government has presented them as the panacea for all our ills?
Smith was telling us yesterday that students will be the first group to want them (won’t get a loan without one)and so along with immigration,benefit fraud,crime,terrorism ID cards to the rescue.
re 81 yet again the PC brigade on their high horses. Let’s get this straight if someone cannot see anything derogatory about the term paki they they are not racist. These are just used as terms of abuse to blackguard anyone with whom you disagree.
Why are the government pressing ahead with ID cards. They are an enormous waste of money that could be better spent else where.
136 — Will do wonders for Labour’s student vote, eh?
139,
They’ll all vote Libdem.
Now if this were to repeated at the forthcoming election for Mayor of London!!!
Ta! Ta! Ken
Hurrah! Rachel Allison has won the Highgate ward by-election, with a big swing and a more than doubling of the Liberal Democrat majority:
Rachel Allison (Liberal Democrat) 1,339 (50.9%, +12.6%)
Peter Forrest (Conservative) 725 (27.5%, -1.5%)
David Heath (Labour) 241 (9.2%, -1.3%)
Ralph Crisp (Independent) 190 (7.2%, -4.4%)
Sarah Mitchell (Green) 138 (5.2%, -5.3%)
Liberal Democrat majority: 614 (23.3%, +14.1%)
The figures I’ve given are compared with what the top party from each candidate won in 2006. However, the closest gap last time (between the third Liberal Democrat and the top Conservative) was 242 - so 614 is more like a trebling of the majority, and despite the usual lower turnout in by-elections.
So whatever way you look at it - fantastic result for Rachel and the team! And a great result for the residents of Highgate & Archway as I know Rachel will continue to be a sterling local campaigner - but now with even more opportunities to improve our community courtesy of being a councillor.
I.D cards has become a big mess for the government. Their terrified of pushing it through in one big go so they’ve decided to go for stealth, which isnt working either as the tories are getting better press these days and pushing it as an issue.
re 136 ID cards have had so many uses mentioned as each one is rumbled it won’t be long before Alan Johnson is promoting them as the cure for cancer and AIDS.
How many students will ‘volunteer’ to waste money and time getting an ID card anyway? Banks won’t have any legal right to ask for them from students only, since they won’t be compulsory to own.
138, because they’re authoritarian Stalinists who need a good kicking.
If they try and force through ID cards, and manage in the Commons (Clegg will probably order his troops to abstain because there’s no vote offered on free bus passes for goldfish) I’m not bloody having one. It’ll cost a fortune, won’t work, will expose us to even more identity theft and that theft will be virtually impossible to recover from.
As Frankie Boyle on Mock the Week is fond of saying:
you’re going to need fresh eyeballs and a new set of fingerprints.
Fun piece on the US election from The New Republic: http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=ba30ff16-a5af-4035-a883-cf15ffee406c
I particularly liked the comment about Hitler’s dog…
144
Yes,but who owns the student loan company which is where most students get their basic loan from?
Didn’t Clegg say he would rather go to prison than have an ID card?
It will never get through Commons after the next election.
Finally, some people here who realise this country is facing legislation more pernicious than the price of Stella Artois!
(Well, I say “this country” but Alex and the SNP have already said they’ll refuse to co-operate with the cards.)
148, apparently it’ll only be a civil offence so Calamity wouldn’t get his chance to play at martyrdom. However, if enough people refused it would create chaos in the courts.
144 I think you may be on to something there, BannedHorse.
As it happens, anti money laundering legislation and procedures are something I happen to know about. The Joint Money Laundering Steering Group (the JMLSG) sets down the rules for standards to combat money laundering, not the Government. They do so in accordance with international standards established in Paris by the Financial Action Task Force (the FATF).
In places that have compulsory identity cards, the FATF still insists on more than one proof of identity and address when a bank account (or whatever) is opened. It will be the same in the UK - all that will happen is that the JMLSG will allow the Identity Card to be used as ONE of the proofs required. But they will not let it be the SOLE proof. So the individual is no better off.
147 — until the day ID cards become compulsory, surely no body, governmental or otherwise, will have the right to insist on their production? (As opposed to simply showing your passport.)
Can you imagine what happen to the courts system if people refused to produce their ID card?
109 - “And those who are thinking of changing their vote for the sake of 40p a pint, how very shallow”
Consider a working man in Frome. Couple of pints of cider a night, three or four at the weekend. About a thousand a year = £400. If you’re a poorly paid bloke on a farm or local industrial estate it is a hell of a lot of money. Your, “pay the man and damn his impudence” approach is typical of the Osborne tendancy and I am sure has great merit amongst the BMW drivers of Knutsford.
152
As someone mentioned earlier they are being introduced by stealth so that people won’t notice them until they are well entrenched in our system.
If you have an ID then your student loan will be sorted out in a couple of weeks if you don’t then join the queue & the best of luck.
154,
Substitute Cider for cigs and your argument is just as weak.
Nick Robinson reckons it was fear of Vince what done it for Clegg:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/